From: owner-abolition-usa-digest@lists.xmission.com (abolition-usa-digest) To: abolition-usa-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: abolition-usa-digest V1 #46 Reply-To: abolition-usa-digest Sender: owner-abolition-usa-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-abolition-usa-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk abolition-usa-digest Tuesday, December 8 1998 Volume 01 : Number 046 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 6 Dec 1998 21:26:32 -0600 (CST) From: smirnowb@ix.netcom.com (Robert Smirnow) Subject: (abolition-usa) QUERY RE Y2K & DE-ALERTING, ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR WAR, PLEASE RESPOND Friends, The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation received a suggestion that Abolition 2000 should initiate an electronic petition concerning de-alerting because of Y2K potentially DISASTROUS problems. I was asked to write the petition up and circulate it but don't have enough expertise to.I am not writing on behalf of The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation although I think they'd be very interested in any well thought out, drawn up draft/petition. Can someone that does have extensive knoweldge re Y2K and nuclear weapons help with a draft/petition? I thank you ahead of time. I will forward any such material to The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation. Also, can any of you pass along info re the potential of accidental nuclear war both Y2K related and non Y2K related? Peace, Bill Smirnow PS Let's all remember that the Pentagon is seriously concerned about Y2K related accidental nuclear war scanarios. I don't know but imagine all other nuclear weapons states, declared or not, as well as all NNWS "Defense" departments would be very concerned re this potential catastrophe.Fallout knows no boundaries & many Non-Nuclear Weapons States[NNWS] are targeted by NWS. - - To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 07 Dec 1998 10:40:05 -0500 From: Stephen Young Subject: Re: (abolition-usa) QUERY RE Y2K & DE-ALERTING, ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR WAR, PLEASE RESPOND Dear friends, This issue is covered in great detail in a recent BASIC reports research paper, "The Bug in the Bomb: The Y2K Problem and Nuclear Weapons", which is available free on our website at: http://www.basicint.org. You can also get hard copies for $10 by replying to me. Thanks Stephen Young Senior Analyst BASIC Robert Smirnow wrote: > Friends, > The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation received a suggestion that > Abolition 2000 should initiate an electronic petition concerning > de-alerting because of Y2K potentially DISASTROUS problems. I was asked > to write the petition up and circulate it but don't have enough > expertise to.I am not writing on behalf of The Nuclear Age Peace > Foundation although I think they'd be very interested in any well > thought out, drawn up draft/petition. Can someone that does have > extensive knoweldge re Y2K and nuclear weapons help with a > draft/petition? I thank you ahead of time. I will forward any such > material to The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation. > > Also, can any of you pass along info re the potential of accidental > nuclear war both Y2K related and non Y2K related? > > Peace, > Bill Smirnow > > PS Let's all remember that the Pentagon is seriously concerned > about Y2K related accidental nuclear war scanarios. I don't know but > imagine all other nuclear weapons states, declared or not, as well as > all NNWS "Defense" departments would be very concerned re this > potential catastrophe.Fallout knows no boundaries & many Non-Nuclear > Weapons States[NNWS] are targeted by NWS. > > > > - > To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" > with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message. > For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send > "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. - - To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 7 Dec 1998 11:32:50 -0500 (EST) From: Hisham Zerriffi Subject: Re: (abolition-usa) QUERY RE Y2K & DE-ALERTING, ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR WAR, PLEASE RESPOND Dear Bill Smirnow, The latest issue of our newsletter, Science for Democratic Action, has a 5 page article on de-alerting and its role in nuclear disarmament and includes a brief discussion of Y2K issues. You can download it from our website (http://www.ieer.org) or I would be happy to send you a hardcopy. Another resources I would check are "The Bug in the Bomb" which is a new report by Michael Kraig of the British-American Information Security Council (BASIC) in Washington DC. Hope this helps. Hisham Zerriffi At 09:26 PM 12/6/98 -0600, you wrote: > > Friends, > The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation received a suggestion that >Abolition 2000 should initiate an electronic petition concerning >de-alerting because of Y2K potentially DISASTROUS problems. I was asked >to write the petition up and circulate it but don't have enough >expertise to.I am not writing on behalf of The Nuclear Age Peace >Foundation although I think they'd be very interested in any well >thought out, drawn up draft/petition. Can someone that does have >extensive knoweldge re Y2K and nuclear weapons help with a >draft/petition? I thank you ahead of time. I will forward any such >material to The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation. > > > Also, can any of you pass along info re the potential of accidental >nuclear war both Y2K related and non Y2K related? > > > > Peace, > Bill Smirnow > > > > PS Let's all remember that the Pentagon is seriously concerned >about Y2K related accidental nuclear war scanarios. I don't know but >imagine all other nuclear weapons states, declared or not, as well as >all NNWS "Defense" departments would be very concerned re this >potential catastrophe.Fallout knows no boundaries & many Non-Nuclear >Weapons States[NNWS] are targeted by NWS. > > > >- > To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" > with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message. > For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send > "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. > > ************************************************************ * Hisham Zerriffi * * Project Scientist Phone: (301) 270-5500 * * Institute for Energy Fax: (301) 270-3029 * * and Environmental Research E-mail: hisham@ieer.org * * 6935 Laurel Ave. Suite 204 Web: www.ieer.org * * Takoma Park, MD 20912 * ************************************************************ - - To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 7 Dec 1998 16:51:52 -0600 (CST) From: smirnowb@ix.netcom.com (Robert Smirnow) Subject: (abolition-usa) SIGN ON TO OPPOSE RUSSIAN REACTORS, WESTERN FUNDING - --- Date: Mon, 07 Dec 1998 16:44:50 -0500 From: Michael Mariotte Reply-To: nirsnet@igc.org Organization: NIRS To: nirsnet@igc.org Subject: r4/k2 sign-on Sender: owner-nukenet@envirolink.org Dear Friends, On December 14, 1998, there will be an international day of protest against the proposed K2/R4 reactors in Ukraine. These are new reactors that would be paid for largely with western money. For the past few months, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has been holding a "public consultation" process on K2/R4, including public meetings in several cities in Ukraine and other countries. The results have been an overwhelming consensus against construction of these reactors. This letter to President Clinton is the U.S. participation in this international day of protest. We will deliver it to the White House on December 14, and issue a news release about it and the issue. We hope that you will be able to sign on to this letter. We must have your sign-on by 5 pm, Friday, December 11. You can e-mail to nirsnet@igc.org or fax to 202-462-2183. Please include your name, organization name, city and state. Thank you! Michael Mariotte NIRS December 14, 1998 Hon. William Jefferson Clinton President of the United States The White House 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20000 Dear President Clinton: The undersigned U.S. environmental and citizens' groups are writing to you to urge you to oppose western funding, through the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, for the proposed new K2/R4 reactors in Ukraine. We strongly oppose the completion of these unnecessary new reactors, and our opposition is shared by a vast majority of Ukrainians and NGOs throughout Europe, as the EBRD public consultation process has demonstrated. Although we fully agree with your goal of closing the Chernobyl nuclear plant, we also strongly oppose the completion of K2/R4, on the grounds that they are both extremely unsafe and unnecessary. As the end of the public consultation period for K2/R4 approaches and the EBRD will be making a decision on funding the project, we ask you to oppose EBRD funding of this unsafe and financially unsound project. Nuclear power continues to create environmental and safety threats throughout Europe and the world. In Eastern Europe especially, nuclear power continues to be relied on heavily, in a region where safety standards and quality of equipment are generally lower than they are in Western Europe. We are very concerned that the expansion of nuclear power in Eastern Europe will only compound these problems. In addition, we would like to point out that the money for K2/R4 would be much more wisely spent on energy efficiency and renewable energy projects, as well as upgrades of currently operating power plants, as originally recommended by a distinguished international advisory panel, including U.S. experts Peter Bradford and David Freeman. Ukraine and other countries in Central and Eastern Europe are at a crossroads in terms of power generation. Part of the legacy from the old Soviet regime is heavy reliance on nuclear power and the use of obsolete and unsafe reactor design types. These reactors, including the VVER 1000 type used at K2 and R4, have been identified by the IAEA as having serious and fundamental safety flaws that are not entirely correctable. In important respects, these reactors cannot meet internationally accepted safety standards and could not be licensed in the United States. Ukraine has suffered enough under government policies that aggressively promote the use of nuclear power, without regard to international safety standards, or indeed to the human costs of nuclear accidents. The Ukrainian people have spoken: They do not want yet another unsafe and expensive nuclear project which continues to risk their health and environment. Our understanding is that the Administration believes that permanently closing Chernobyl is the most important issue here, and that if helping Ukraine build new reactors is the price to close Chernobyl, we should provide that assistance. We appreciate and agree with your insistence on closing Chernobyl. But building new unsafe reactors to replace old unsafe reactors is not much of an improvement. Rather, the United States and the international community must do everything it can to assist Ukraine in attaining a sound non-nuclear energy future. Ukraine has the necessary energy resources to accomplish this goal, and the U.S. and EBRD should concentrate its efforts on this. Thank you very much for your attention to this matter and we look forward to hearing from you soon regarding your position on this urgent issue. Sincerely, Cc: Vice President Al Gore Karen Shepherd, EBRD - - To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 7 Dec 1998 17:01:09 -0600 (CST) From: smirnowb@ix.netcom.com (Robert Smirnow) Subject: (abolition-usa) OPPOSE RUSSIAN REACTORS, WESTERN FUNDING - --- Date: Mon, 07 Dec 1998 16:44:50 -0500 From: Michael Mariotte Reply-To: nirsnet@igc.org Organization: NIRS To: nirsnet@igc.org Subject: r4/k2 sign-on Sender: owner-nukenet@envirolink.org Dear Friends, On December 14, 1998, there will be an international day of protest against the proposed K2/R4 reactors in Ukraine. These are new reactors that would be paid for largely with western money. For the past few months, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has been holding a "public consultation" process on K2/R4, including public meetings in several cities in Ukraine and other countries. The results have been an overwhelming consensus against construction of these reactors. This letter to President Clinton is the U.S. participation in this international day of protest. We will deliver it to the White House on December 14, and issue a news release about it and the issue. We hope that you will be able to sign on to this letter. We must have your sign-on by 5 pm, Friday, December 11. You can e-mail to nirsnet@igc.org or fax to 202-462-2183. Please include your name, organization name, city and state. Thank you! Michael Mariotte NIRS December 14, 1998 Hon. William Jefferson Clinton President of the United States The White House 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20000 Dear President Clinton: The undersigned U.S. environmental and citizens' groups are writing to you to urge you to oppose western funding, through the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, for the proposed new K2/R4 reactors in Ukraine. We strongly oppose the completion of these unnecessary new reactors, and our opposition is shared by a vast majority of Ukrainians and NGOs throughout Europe, as the EBRD public consultation process has demonstrated. Although we fully agree with your goal of closing the Chernobyl nuclear plant, we also strongly oppose the completion of K2/R4, on the grounds that they are both extremely unsafe and unnecessary. As the end of the public consultation period for K2/R4 approaches and the EBRD will be making a decision on funding the project, we ask you to oppose EBRD funding of this unsafe and financially unsound project. Nuclear power continues to create environmental and safety threats throughout Europe and the world. In Eastern Europe especially, nuclear power continues to be relied on heavily, in a region where safety standards and quality of equipment are generally lower than they are in Western Europe. We are very concerned that the expansion of nuclear power in Eastern Europe will only compound these problems. In addition, we would like to point out that the money for K2/R4 would be much more wisely spent on energy efficiency and renewable energy projects, as well as upgrades of currently operating power plants, as originally recommended by a distinguished international advisory panel, including U.S. experts Peter Bradford and David Freeman. Ukraine and other countries in Central and Eastern Europe are at a crossroads in terms of power generation. Part of the legacy from the old Soviet regime is heavy reliance on nuclear power and the use of obsolete and unsafe reactor design types. These reactors, including the VVER 1000 type used at K2 and R4, have been identified by the IAEA as having serious and fundamental safety flaws that are not entirely correctable. In important respects, these reactors cannot meet internationally accepted safety standards and could not be licensed in the United States. Ukraine has suffered enough under government policies that aggressively promote the use of nuclear power, without regard to international safety standards, or indeed to the human costs of nuclear accidents. The Ukrainian people have spoken: They do not want yet another unsafe and expensive nuclear project which continues to risk their health and environment. Our understanding is that the Administration believes that permanently closing Chernobyl is the most important issue here, and that if helping Ukraine build new reactors is the price to close Chernobyl, we should provide that assistance. We appreciate and agree with your insistence on closing Chernobyl. But building new unsafe reactors to replace old unsafe reactors is not much of an improvement. Rather, the United States and the international community must do everything it can to assist Ukraine in attaining a sound non-nuclear energy future. Ukraine has the necessary energy resources to accomplish this goal, and the U.S. and EBRD should concentrate its efforts on this. Thank you very much for your attention to this matter and we look forward to hearing from you soon regarding your position on this urgent issue. Sincerely, Cc: Vice President Al Gore Karen Shepherd, EBRD - - To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 8 Dec 1998 02:34:56 -0600 (CST) From: smirnowb@ix.netcom.com (Robert Smirnow) Subject: (abolition-usa) Fwd: DoE Deadline Extended for Pu-238 Development for Future Space - ---- Date: Thu, 5 Nov 1998 09:00:40 -0500 (EST) From: noflyby@nonviolence.org Sender: owner-abolition-caucus@igc.org Subject: DoE Deadline Extended for Pu-238 Development for Future Space Missions To: abolition-caucus@igc.apc.org, nukenet@envirolink.org One piece of good news for us is that the DoE has extended the deadline for comments on the Proposed Production of Plutonium-238 for Use in Advanced Radioisotope Power Systems for Future Space Missions. Russell Hoffman of the "Stop Cassini Homepage" called Colette Brown, DoE, and confirmed that the November 4 deadline was a misprint and that the correct deadline date is now stated as January 4, 1999. This is a good opportunity, like responding to the scheduled 8/18/99 Cassini Earth flyby, for us to respond before a possible destructive event. I hope many of us will reply to their plans for irresponsible and dangerous nuclear technologies.. thanks, take care.. Jonathan M. Haber NoFlyby Website http://www.nonviolence,org/noflyby <<<< REPRINT OF ORIGINAL NOTICE >>>> NOTICE OF INTENT: To Prepare an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the Proposed Production of Plutonium-238 for Use in Advanced Radioisotope Power Systems for Future Space Missions (DOE/EIS-299). DOE intends to prepare an EIS to assess the potential environmental impacts of establishing a domestic capability to produce Pu-238 including the storage of neptunium-237 (Np-237), fabrication of Np-237 targets, irradiation of targets to produce Pu-238, and the processing of these targets to isolate the Pu-238 and recycle the Np-237. The Pu-238 would be used in advanced radioisotope power systems for potential future space missions. Without a long-term supply of Pu-238, DOE would not be able to provide the radioisotope power systems that may be required for these potential future space missions, and the Department would not fulfill the intended space nuclear power role assigned to the Department in the National Space Policy statement issued on 19 September 1996. This assigned role of maintaining the space nuclear capability is also consistent with the Department's charter under the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, as amended. Alternatives to be analyzed for the fabrication of Np-237 targets and for processing the irradiated targets include the use of the Radiochemical Engineering Development Center in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, and the Fuels and Materials Examination Facility at the Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. Alternative facilities for the irradiation of targets for Pu-238 production include the Advanced Test Reactor near Idaho Falls, Idaho, the Fast Flux Test Facility at the Hanford Site, Washington, and the High Flux Isotope Reactor in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The public scoping period begins with the publication of this Notice of Intent and will continue until 4 November 1998. [extended to January 4th, 1999 according to in conversation with Colette Brown and the editor of this newsletter]. Public scoping meetings will be announced as soon as determined but at least 15 days prior to the date of the meetings. Contact Colette Brown, Office of Nuclear Energy, Science and Technology (NE-50), U.S. Department of Energy, 19901 Germantown Road, Germantown, Maryland 20874, tele. 301.903.6924, fax: 301.903.1510, E-mail: "Colette Brown" . Requests to speak at scoping hearings, scoping comments, and requests for documents should be submitted to the above contact. [For detailed information, see 63 FR 53398, 5 October 1998.] Comment period begins Oct 5 and ends NOV 4 [extended to JAN 4, 1999] DOE Contact: Colette Brown, Office of Nuclear Energy, Science and Technology (NE-50) USDOE, 19901 Germantown Road Germantown, MD 20874 Telephone 301-903-6924 FAX 301-903-1510 EMAIL Colette.Brown@HQ.DOE.GOV A toll free telephone number has been established to receive public comments. Interested parties may call (800) 708-2680 and leave a detailed message with their comments. <<<< END OF REPRINT <<<< ps: [We have received feedback that there were problems getting through using the above toll free number and a better one is: (877) 562-4593, expecially for questions.] - - To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 08 Dec 1998 11:20:09 -0500 From: Kathy Crandall Subject: (abolition-usa) START 2, Y2K Dear Nuclear Abolitionists: Stay tuned START II progress, and please check out the MSNBC story on Y2K and Nukes. . . Kathy APO 12/08 0956 Russia Postpones Nuke Treaty Talks MOSCOW (AP) -- Russia's parliament again postponed discussions on the START II treaty today after failing to meet a deadline for sending a related measure on nuclear weapons to President Boris Yeltsin. The parliament's agenda-setting body, the Duma Council, had planned today to review a bill outlining Russia's nuclear weapons program. But it delayed debate because no parliamentary factions except the liberal Yabloko party submitted proposals or suggestions for the measure, the Interfax news agency said. Russia's Communist-led parliament has repeatedly delayed action on the START II treaty, signed by the United States and Russia in 1993. The lawmakers want an additional measure outlining the country's nuclear weapons program before they act on the treaty. The START II treaty would halve the Russian and American nuclear arsenals to about 3,000 to 3,500 warheads each. Yabloko leaders accused Communists in the parliament of once again stalling on the treaty, which the U.S. Senate ratified in 1996. Yeltsin and other proponents of ratification say the missiles that would be destroyed under START-II will soon be out of date anyway. One positive note was sounded today when Nikolai Kharitonov, a leader of the Communist-allied Agrarian Party, said he had changed his mind about the treaty after a meeting with Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, and now supported it. "As things stand now, ratification is in Russia's interest," Kharitonov said, according to the Interfax news agency. He suggested that Russia could enhance its prospects for Western financial aid by ratifying the accord. ************************************************************ If you have web access, please check this MSNBC story. Not only can you see the cool graphics, you can vote to rate the importance of the story and help to ensure broader coveraged by MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.com/news/220749.asp#BODY Also check out these sites for more on Y2K and Nukes: British American Security Information Council Report at: http://www.basicint.org/ and The Federation of American Scientists Site on Command and Control http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/c3i/index.html ... And don't forget to order your De-Alerting Resource & Action Kits by contacting the Disarmament Clearinghouse or ordering from the Web at: http://www.psr.org/Disarmhouse-dealert.htm ************************************************************ Fears mount over millennium bombs Will the Year 2000 problem make a dangerous situation explosive? The multiple warheads from a US missile light up the sky during a live exercise over the vast atoll of Kwajalein. The atoll is used by the US military as a test site. By Kari Huus MSNBC Dec 6 =97 Perhaps no entity on earth faces a more mammoth Year 2000 challenge than the U.S. Department of Defense, which has some 1.5 million computers, 28,000 systems and 10,000 networks. Within its purview, no area has prompted more concern than the country's nuclear weapons arsenal, and whether its control and command is safe from the millennial bug. THE CONCERN LIES with computer systems programmed to use two rather than four digits to describe the year =97 for example "79" instead of "1979." When the year 2000 arrives, experts predict that some computers may mistake the date for 1900 and shut down or malfunction. They may also feed bad information to other systems with which they are linked. The Pentagon stands by its Year 2000 (or Y2K) effort, which it says has been under way since 1995 and budgeted at $2.5 billion over five years. But defense officials don't offer guarantees. "None of us knows exactly what is going to happen," says Pentagon spokesperson Susan Hansen. "We feel cautiously optimistic that what will happen is some nuisances rather than crises=85 We feel pretty confident that we will be able to provide for the national security of the United States." Cautious optimism on the part of the DoD has done little to reassure critics. A recently released report by the British American Security Information Council (BASIC) in Washington says Department of Defense efforts to address the Y2K issue have been riddled by "severe and recurring problems." And, BASIC notes, there is even less information available about Moscow's efforts, much less the rest of the world's nuclear weapons infrastructure. The combination of possible computer glitches and the hair-trigger posture of U.S. and Russian nuclear forces raise the specter of a missile launch based on compromised surveillance data, or a communication breakdown in the event of a real attack, according to the BASIC report. U.S. decision-makers must take steps now to preclude disaster should the Pentagon fail," says the report's author, Michael Kraig, a Scoville fellow. RISKS AND MYTHS Analysts on both sides of the debate are quick to say that missiles are highly unlikely to launch themselves at the stroke of midnight on Jan.1, 2000. Rather, most concerns about military computer glitchesare focused on the vast web of computerized communications systems under STRATCOM =97 U.S. Strategic Command, which controls the country's nuclear arsenal. Equally worrisome is U.S. Space Command (part of NORAD, the North American Aerospace Defense Command), responsible for early-warning radar and surveillance =97 the basis for military decisions. (For a review, see the Federation of American Scientists' Nuclear Forces Guide). As in other sectors, no one is sure how the military's overall procedures will work if one part of the system fails. What raises the stakes is that both the United States and Russia maintain "launch on warning" postures =97 calling for nuclear retaliation upon detection of the other's launch of missiles. If date-related problems produce inaccurate early-warning data, or if communications within the military command are compromised, there will be 10 minutes to half an hour to clarify the situation and make the decision to launch or hold back. Even in normal times misinterpretation of data frequently leads to heightened alert. Signals are sometimes garbled by solar disturbances. In 1979, personnel at NORAD saw the numbers indicating ballistic missile launches suddenly jump from zero to 20. In preparation to retaliate, nuclear bomber crews started their engines, and Minutemen missiles were readied. Ultimately, the data was traced to a faulty embedded chip design. Who's benefitting from the frenzy? Given all the work required to make U.S. weapons systems Y2K safe, who's getting the contracts =97 and subsequently earning big fees? Well, it's not a windfall for defense giants who traditionally make most of their money from government contracts. In fact, the amount budgeted =97 $2.54 billion spread over five years =97is companies like defens and aerospace behemoth Lockheed Martin Corp. Lockheed says it has had piecemeal contracts on the overall Y2K effort, but that most of its input came under regular government maintenance contracts. Compare the amount the company is earning on Y2K upgrades to the $80 million the company is spending to make itself internally compliant, and there's little or no benefit. "It's a wash, or less than a wash, " says Jim Fetig, a spokesman for Lockheed. "The outgo is bigger than the input. " The same message came from Northrop Grumman, which makes military surveillance systems, military electronics and combat aircraft. Despite winning a handful of small information technology contracts, "we've noticed no big upsurge, " a spokesman said. =97 Kari Huus In 1995, Moscow went into a state of high alert when its early warning radar mistook a Norwegian scientific probe for a U.S. trident missile launched from the Baltic. The response decision was elevated all the way to President Boris Yeltsin, his defense minister and the chief of staff, who decided against action when they determined the "impact" would be outside Russian borders. There is also a danger that, in the event of data correctly interpreting attack, communication systems used to coordinate a reaction may malfunction. Indeed, the DoD's efforts to prevent this breakdown go only so far, since the military has shifted from largely dedicated communications systems to commercial networks. In testimony before a House subcommittee in June, Deputy Secretary of Defense John Hamre conceded, "If Ma Bell's or Bell Atlantic's system fails on Year 2000, we're going to have mission failure, and I don't have any control over that." FAULTY CHAIN Few military analysts suggest that 2000 will bring the Armageddon. "The most likely thing is that Y2K problems get lost in the noise of flaky computer problems," says John Pike, security analyst for the Federation of American Scientists, a privately funded, non-profit organization in Washington, D.C. However, Pike believes the greatest risk lies with events that follow component failure. "The thing you worry about is people improvising," he says, causing a relatively innocuous event to escalate, as happened in the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl crises. Pike paints a scenario: "Most probably, the response is not that a missile will jump out of its silo at midnight, but that the door of the missile silo will get stuck." A technician whose job it is to keep the missile ready for use drops his wrench into the silo, tearing a hole in the fuel tank, causing an explosion. The explosion severs communication with the base, and it goes into a higher state of alert, which raises concern at military bases in Russia. "If systems behave peculiarly, people will be nervous, overworked, and stop trusting the system," says Pike."Consequently the man-machine interface starts behaving in unpredictable ways." HOW MUCH PROGRESS IS ENOUGH The Department of Defense says the situation is well under control. It reports that it has identified 2,581 mission-critical systems, of which 53 percent are now fully Y2K ready. Another 1,014 are going through the paces and a few hundred are to be retired or replaced before 2000. The idea is to finish all the fixes by Jan. 1, 1999 =97 three months earlier than previously announced, according to spokesperson Hansen. This will leave ample time for testing, and including Y2K testing in military exercises.But BASIC, which did extensive documentation of the DoD process, contends that there are serious flaws in the Pentagon's representation =97 including ad-hoc funding, lax management and inadequat= e standards for declaring a system "Y2K compliant." In short, the fixes won't be finished and tested in time, says BASIC. "Initial research findings=85 have resulted in no confidence that the Pentagon's present program will meet the Year 2000 challenge," according to its report. Those findings were based in part on the government's own conclusions, which started to set off alarms last spring. The Office of Management and Budget has expressed its concerns that DoD will not meet its goals. The General Accounting Office for the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs warned in a report in April, "Time is running out to correct Department of Defense systems that could malfunction=85 the impact of these failures could be widespread, costly and potentially disruptive to military operations worldwide." An array of audit reports posted by the Inspector General for the DoD suggest many military departments are lagging behind schedule on Y2K efforts, and predict disruptions in command and control, testing and day to day operations. THE NUCLEAR CLUB Assuming that the Pentagon meets its goals, however, it seems clear that Russia will not, particularly in light of its severe economic constraints. Moscow has insisted that the Russian system is different =97 not susceptible to Y2K glitches =97 but the argument has failed to convince. Defense Deputy Secretary Hamre described Russia's early warning system as "fragile" in Senate testimony. "Our concern is that Russia and China have only a very rudimentary understanding of the Year 2000 problem, which is why we need to reach out to them to make sure they have custodial confidence in their own systems," he said. That was in June. As of October, Washington and Moscow were discussing the possibility of exchanging personnel in military sites to usher in the millennium, which spokesperson Hansen says will "=85 relay information and relieve the anxiety in case of a glitch ... to ensure no one misconstrues Y2K problem for an attack." Some critics of U.S. nuclear policy, however, say that the fundamental flaw is in the posture of U.S. and Russian forces in the post-Cold War era. BASIC, as well as members of Congress and other non-governmental groups, urge the U.S. and Russia to "stand down or de-alert" missiles that remain on a hair-trigger prior to 2000. Though most agree it is too late to separate missiles from warheads, BASIC's Kraig urges the two sides to otherwise disable missiles. Others are calling for an independent audit by a non-governmental agency and fuller public disclosure of the results. "We don't know squat about testing at STRATCOM," says Pike of FAS. "We know a lot more about Y2K compliance of parking garages at Washington headquarters than computers that are planning thermonuclear war." The Defense Department says it's just not a practical solution to bring in outsiders unfamiliar with the multitude of rules and regulations to which they are subject. And as with many of the ideas being bandied about at the cusp of 1999, there's just not enough time. Says Hansen: "By the time [outside auditors] got up to speed it would probably be past the year 2000." - -- DISARMAMENT CLEARINGHOUSE Nuclear Disarmament Information, Resources & Action Tools Kathy Crandall, Coordinator 1101 14th Street NW #700, Washington DC 20005 TEL: 202 898 0150 ext. 232 FAX: 202 898 0150 ext. 232 E-MAIL: disarmament@igc.org http://www.psr.org/Disarmhouse.htm http://www.psr.org/ctbtaction.htm A project of: Peace Action, Physicians for Social Responsibility and Women's Action for New Directions - -- DISARMAMENT CLEARINGHOUSE Nuclear Disarmament Information, Resources & Action Tools Kathy Crandall, Coordinator 1101 14th Street NW #700, Washington DC 20005 TEL: 202 898 0150 ext. 232 FAX: 202 898 0150 ext. 232 E-MAIL: disarmament@igc.org http://www.psr.org/Disarmhouse.htm http://www.psr.org/ctbtaction.htm A project of: Peace Action, Physicians for Social Responsibility and Women's Action for New Directions - - To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 8 Dec 1998 13:31:59 -0500 From: "David Culp" Subject: (abolition-usa) START-II DEBATE DELAYED AGAIN START-II DEBATE DELAYED AGAIN Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline Tuesday, December 8, 1998 The Duma has postponed discussion of the START-II treaty until 15 December, ITAR-TASS reported on 8 December. Duma Deputy Speaker and member of the Yabloko faction Vladimir Ryzhkov told reporters that the Duma is set to ratify the treaty on that date or send the draft law to President Yeltsin with an explanation of its stance. Duma Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Vladimir Lukin (Yabloko) told reporters that the debate was delayed because no faction beside Yabloko had submitted its proposals on the bill and that leftist parties are deliberately delaying discussion. Duma Security Committee Chairman Viktor Ilyukhin (Communist Party) said the treaty cannot be discussed until the government submits a budget for decommissioning part of its nuclear arsenal. Earlier, Liberal Democratic Party leader Zhirinovsky declared that he is "even more convinced [than ever] that the Duma should not ratify START-II." - ---------- RUSSIA POSTPONES NUKE TREATY TALKS=20 Tuesday, December 8, 1998; 9:56 a.m. EST MOSCOW (AP) -- Russia's parliament again postponed discussions on the START II treaty today after failing to meet a deadline for sending a related measure on nuclear weapons to President Boris Yeltsin.=20 The parliament's agenda-setting body, the Duma Council, had planned today to review a bill outlining Russia's nuclear weapons program.=20 But it delayed debate because no parliamentary factions except the liberal Yabloko party submitted proposals or suggestions for the measure, the Interfax news agency said.=20 Russia's Communist-led parliament has repeatedly delayed action on the START II treaty, signed by the United States and Russia in 1993.=20 The lawmakers want an additional measure outlining the country's nuclear weapons program before they act on the treaty.=20 The START II treaty would halve the Russian and American nuclear arsenals to about 3,000 to 3,500 warheads each.=20 Yabloko leaders accused Communists in the parliament of once again stalling on the treaty, which the U.S. Senate ratified in 1996.=20 Yeltsin and other proponents of ratification say the missiles that would be destroyed under START-II will soon be out of date anyway.=20 One positive note was sounded today when Nikolai Kharitonov, a leader of the Communist-allied Agrarian Party, said he had changed his mind about the treaty after a meeting with Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, and now supported it.=20 ``As things stand now, ratification is in Russia's interest,'' Kharitonov said, according to the Interfax news agency. He suggested that Russia could enhance its prospects for Western financial aid by ratifying the accord.=20 =A9 Copyright 1998 The Associated Press - - To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. ------------------------------ End of abolition-usa-digest V1 #46 ********************************** - To unsubscribe to $LIST, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe $LIST" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.