From: owner-abolition-usa-digest@lists.xmission.com (abolition-usa-digest)
To: abolition-usa-digest@lists.xmission.com
Subject: abolition-usa-digest V1 #228
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abolition-usa-digest Sunday, November 28 1999 Volume 01 : Number 228
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Thu, 25 Nov 1999 12:35:25 -0800 (PST)
From: marylia@earthlink.net (marylia)
Subject: (abolition-usa) NEW! On Tri-Valley CAREs' web site!
Dear peace and environmental advocates:
For your reading and "surfing" pleasure -- Tri-Valley CAREs has just put
great new information on its web site. Go to http://www.igc.org/tvc and
find:
1. The November issue of our newsletter "Citizen's Watch," including:
* The CTBT: A debacle and a ray of hope
* Public Hearing on the National Ignition Facility
* Independent experts speak on "Radiation and Risk"
* Public meeting on nuclear fuel rods and their transportation
* Community calendar and MORE!
2. New press release, flier and fact sheet on "Radiation and Risk," including:
* information on the Precautionary Principle -- revolutionizing the
relationship between communities and polluters.
* info on "Town Meeting" in Livermore December 1
* info on "Brown Bag Lunch" at Livermore Lab December 2
3. You will also find information on de-alerting nuclear weapons, the U.S.
Dept. of Energy's euphemistically-titled "Stockpile Stewardship" program,
radioactive and toxic pollution around Livermore Lab and MUCH, MUCH MORE!
With apologies for any duplicate postings you may receive...
Peace,
Marylia
Marylia Kelley
Tri-Valley CAREs
(Communities Against a Radioactive Environment)
2582 Old First Street
Livermore, CA USA 94550
- is our web site, please visit us there!
(925) 443-7148 - is our phone
(925) 443-0177 - is our fax
Working for peace, justice and a healthy environment since 1983, Tri-Valley
CAREs has been a member of the nation-wide Alliance for Nuclear
Accountability in the U.S. since 1989, and is a co-founding member of the
international Abolition 2000 network for the elimination of nuclear
weapons.
- -
To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com"
with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message.
For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send
"help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 25 Nov 1999 23:11:16 EST
From: Dealert99@aol.com
Subject: (abolition-usa) Y2K LONG SHOT: US-RUSSIAN NUCLEAR WAR (Boston Globe)
The following article appeared on the front page of the Boston Globe for=20
Sunday, November 21, 1999. It has disappeared already from the Boston Globe=20
on-line archives! When I contacted John Donnelly about the word *disarmament=
*=20
in his second sentence, pointing out that this word gives a totally mistaken=
=20
view of our work to de-alert, he told me that he used "disarming" meaning=20
"de-alerting", but "disarmament" was edited in. So please understand that he=
=20
meant "de-alerting" here.
Please forgive the cross-posting. I believe this is a significant addition=20
to our work to de-alert, and I don't want to miss anyone!
William Santelmann, for the
Metro-Boston Committee to De-Alert Nuclear Weapons
dealert99@aol.com
781.862.1753
30 Fairlawn Lane
Lexington, MA 02420-2715
Y2K LONG SHOT: US-RUSSIAN NUCLEAR WAR
By John Donnelly, Boston Globe staff.
WASHINGTON -- It would be the world's most extreme Y2K computer glitch.
As improbable as it may be, the possibility of a mistaken launch of nuclear=20
missiles just as the world celebrates the new millennium has antiatomic=20
activists pushing anew for *disarmament* of all US and Russian nuclear=20
missiles.
US officials say flatly that Y2K computer problems will not cause any=20
accidental launch of a nuclear missile.
But arms control specialists cannot completely rule out a Y2K doomsday=20
scenario, which could start with computer malfunctions in Russia that cause=20
early-warning systems to give erroneous indications of a missile attack.
Then, under this hypothetical scenario, Russian President Boris N. Yeltsin=20
could order the activation of the country's "dead hand" system, which ensure=
s=20
nuclear retaliation in case an attack kills the entire Moscow leadership.=20
Next, the Y2K bug could shut down the communication between Russia's central=
=20
command and the dead hand computer apparatus, which would proceed to launch=20
missiles on the basis of the false indications of an incoming attack.
And that, according to some disarmament activists, could bring nuclear=20
holocaust as Russia sends hundreds of nuclear missiles toward the United=20
States.
Much would have to go wrong for such a cataclysmic event to occur, but such=20
technical and human error is not absolutely out of the question, some arms=20
specialists warn.
Earlier this year, to add another layer of safety to prevent an accidental=20
launch, President Clinton and Yeltsin created a joint Y2K control room at=20
Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado Springs. There Russian and US officials=20
will sit side-by-side beginning in late December to minimize the chances of=20=
a=20
Y2K-triggered false alarm.
But the scenario described above is based on a "Dr. Strangelove"-like system=
=20
that exists in Russia, notably the dead hand computer program, which remains=
=20
in the hands of Moscow despite the joint command center in Colorado.
And the scenario comes against a backdrop of rising Russian anger against th=
e=20
United States, the most recent point of conflict occurring last week in=20
Clinton's pointed criticism of the war in Chechnya. Pentagon officials say=20
Russia has embarked on a campaign of nuclear muscle-flexing to show its=20
displeasure, including a recent test of two submarine-launched missiles and=20
Russia's threats to send nuclear bombers to Cuba and Vietnam.
But an ongoing worry persists around Russia's deteriorating and incomplete=20
early-missile warning system, underscoring the dangers of having an estimate=
d=20
5,000 Russian and US nuclear missiles on a hair-trigger -- Y2K or no Y2K.
While the missiles are no longer targeted on cities and nuclear sites, they=20
are loaded with guidance systems that, on the United States side, can be=20
programmed in as little time as 10 seconds, literally a flip of the switch=20
and then two computer keystrokes, analysts said.
"Even if the Y2K risks are low, it's important for people to appreciate the=20
overall risks here," said Bruce Blair, a Brookings Institution senior fellow=
=20
and a recipient this year of a MacArthur Foundation "genius grant," who has=20
written extensively about possible doomsday nuclear scenarios, including the=
=20
dead hand possibility.
In the view of Blair and others, Y2K is a unique event, and thus the threat=20
cannot be calculated.
"It is inestimable," Blair said. "Anyone who claims to know the probability=20
of Y2K early-warning failure in Russia is pulling it out of thin air."
In recent months, US and Russian officials have tried to assure the public=20
that Y2K poses no risk of a nuclear shoot-out.
Following a federal government report on the Y2K problem earlier this month,=
=20
the White House said in a statement: "Y2K problems will not cause nuclear=20
weapons to launch themselves. Nuclear weapons launch requires human=20
intervention."
A Pentagon official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the worrie=
s=20
of Y2K problems with Russia's nuclear system "have gotten blown way out of=20
proportion. We expect minor glitches in Russia, nothing of great severity."
At the Colorado center, American officials will share data from the US globa=
l=20
early warning network.
But distrust lingers, even at the joint command center. US officials will no=
t=20
share everything from the early-warning network for fear of giving away=20
secrets to the Russians, and the Russians have rejected US requests to set u=
p=20
another joint Y2K control center in Russia because of their own wariness of=20
giving away intelligence secrets.
Ill feeling has gradually built up between the two nation's militaries since=
=20
the early euphoria following the breakup of the Soviet Union. It deepened=20
among the Russian military hierarchy in recent months with the expansion of=20
NATO eastward to include three more countries; with NATO's war against Serb=20
forces in Kosovo; and with US intentions to build a national missile defense=
=20
system that would violate the antiballistic missile treaty.
Five US arms control specialists, some working for the Clinton administratio=
n=20
or Congress and some at universities, have said recently that their contacts=
=20
in Russia have dried up because Russian intelligence agents have told=20
scientists to cease contacts with Americans.
In the last month, the possible Y2K threat has galvanized many antinuclear=20
activists, including Helen M. Caldicott, author Jonathan Schell, and former=20
arms negotiator Paul Nitze, who have called on Clinton in full-page newspape=
r=20
advertisements to "de-alert" thousands of nuclear missiles. De-alerting=20
literally means taking missiles off high alert, removing the hair trigger by=
=20
dismantling missile components.
Last summer, Representative Edward J. Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat,=20
introduced a resolution calling for immediate de-alerting of nuclear missile=
s.
But US and Russian officials have rejected the idea. US Defense Secretary=20
William S. Cohen said in Moscow recently that de-alerting was "off the table=
."
The obstacles, according to Pentagon officials and arms control specialists,=
=20
lie in verification and lack of trust.
"As long as the US and Russia see each as potential adversaries, this is=20
going to be the situation" of missiles on hair-trigger, said Theodore A.=20
Postol, a MIT professor of science, technology, and national security policy=
.=20
"That will also be the situation if one side sees itself as vulnerable to a=20
damaging strike."
That now would be Russia, because its nuclear forces are "extremely=20
vulnerable to a US strike," Postol said. Many Russian nuclear missiles are=20
either in silos or are collected together in corrugated steel buildings,=20
making them a possible lucrative target in a nuclear war. Many US nuclear=20
missiles, in comparison, are on submarines, which can evade detection.
A US arms control official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said=20
de-alerting would be extremely difficult in practice because of the=20
difficulty of verification. "You have to imagine all sorts of shenanigans=20
there would be over verification," the official said. "Once you mention the=20
word 'verification,' the idea loses some of its attractiveness."
But for some arms control analysts, there seems little reason to keep so man=
y=20
missiles on high alert a decade after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
"What's the threat? Does anyone think there is going to be a=20
bolt-out-of-the-blue attack?" said Joseph Cirincione, senior associate at th=
e=20
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington think tank. "Does=20
anyone believe that the Russians would do this for some reason, that they=20
would try to do a preemptive strike? I think it's just insane at this point.=
"
Blair, the Brookings analyst who has had extensive contacts with Russian=20
counterparts, said while both the United States and Russia find a preemptive=
=20
strike scenario "bizarre," the issue cannot be totally dismissed because of=20
Russia's rising distrust of the United States.
Asked if the Y2K doomsday scenario, which has been so roundly dismissed by U=
S=20
officials, was cause for losing sleep, Blair did not respond reassuringly.
"Why should you sleep at night? Why should you sleep if nobody knows? Maybe=20
you need a sleeping pill," he said. "You can hope and trust that the=20
probability is extremely small. But we certainly don't know that."
All content herein is =A9 1999 Globe Newspaper Company and may not be=20
republished without permission.
- -
To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com"
with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message.
For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send
"help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.
------------------------------
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 1999 13:38:24 +1000
From: FoE Sydney - Nuclear Campaign
Subject: (abolition-usa) EUROPE SAYS TAKE 5,600 WARHEADS OFF ALERT. 35 DAYS, KEEP FAXING!
EUROPE SAYS TAKE 5,600 WARHEADS OFF ALERT. 35 DAYS TO Y2K, KEEP FAXING!
Sorry for double posting - but please spread this message far and wide.
Dear All,
There are now just 35 days until the Y2K 'rollover'.
There's not much time to get 5,600 warheads off alert.
Last Thursday (18 November), the European Parliament passed a resolution on
Y2K nuclear` reactors and nuclear weapons, in which it asked for nuclear
forces to be taken off alert over the Y2K rollover period, as well as for
reactors to be shut down.
We need to keep the faxes that have been rolling in to Cohen, Clinton, and
Yeltsin, coming! There are signs from the Pentagon that they are being
forced to respond!
There are currently 3,600 Russian warheads and 2000US warheads on
permanent, 24- hour, 'hairtrigger' alert. (this is simply the warheads in
silo- based missiles and does not include submarine or bomber or other
weapons.)
These warheads can be launched at 15-20 minutes notice.
The UK on the other hand, has recently moved the 'notice to fire ' for its
warheads, from minutes to days.
We are asking the US and Russia to do likewise.
'De-Alerting', as it is called has now been called for by the 1996 Canberra
Commission, by the Tokyo Forum, by two resolutions of the United Nations
General Assembly last year and by the same resolutions again this year, by
the Australian senate, and now by the European Parliament. A resolution by
Rep. Edward Markey has gathered 71 co- sponsors.
There are signs that the Pentagon may be feeling the impact of your faxes -
so keep faxing!
Do Please write to Cohen, Clinton, and Yeltsin, something similar to the
letters below if you haven't already done so (or even if you have).
If you are an organisation and want to sign a large sign- on letter, please
sign the letter to presidents Yeltsin and Clinton that is being periodicaly
faxed to them on
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd/nuclear/bbletter.html
(I strongly suggest that you don't use these letters word for word but
customise them or paraphrase, and shorten.)
The fax numbers have all been tried many times and work. The Russian fax
number is very slow.
You can fax defence secy Cohen on +1-703-695-1149,
You can fax Clinton on +1-202-456-2461,
You can fax Yeltsin on +7-095-205-4330,
You can fax for free on http://www.fax4free.com
2)You can sign on to the electronic petition, coordinated by NAPF.
It's at Http://www.napf.org/abolition2000/intlpetition.html
1)SAMPLE LETTER TO COHEN/CLINTON
(This is for individuals to sent to Us Secretary for Defence Cohen and
President Clinton. You can also post it to The White House, 1600
Pennsylvania Ave, Washington DC.)
TO:
WILLIAM COHEN, US SECRETARY OF DEFENCE,
+1-703-695-1149,
PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON,
WHITE HOUSE, WASHINGTON, US,
+1-202-456-2461, +1-202-456-2883.
Dear President Clinton and Secretary for Defence Cohen,
I am writing to urge your administration to take US nuclear forces off
'hairtrigger alert' even if only during the Y2K rollover period.
As you will be aware, the European Parliament recently voted to ask you and
President Yeltsin to do as the UK has already done, and de-alert nuclear
weapons.
It is particularly disturbing that Secretary Cohen has been reported as
having stated in Moscow some time ago that de-alerting of nuclear forces is
'off the table' as a stability building measure. You have also been quoted
as saying that 'The better course is reduction, limiting the number of
weapons, and establishing shared early warning centers'.
The recent Europarliament vote clearly puts de- alerting back on the table.
De-alerting of nuclear forces was strongly recommended by the Canberra
Commission in 1996 and then by the Tokyo Forum, as a way to develop
strategic stability and build trust between the US and Russia. It has also
been incorporated into last year's and this years text of the New Agenda
Resolution in the UN General Assembly. It has also been reccommended by a
resolution specifically on the subject passed by last years General
Assembly and by this years First Committee on Reduction of Nuclear Dangers.
In addition it has been the subject of two resolutions passed by the
Australian Senate on 12 August and 20September, and finally it has been
clearly requested by the European Parliament. It is also the subject of
congressional resolution H.Con Res177 put by Edward Markey, and most
recently, the City of Berkley has asked for it.
These measures are not in competition with each other. All of them -
reductions in the number of weapons, the establishment of shared early
warning centers and de-alerting - are vital to the reduction of tension
and the establishment of strategic stability.
This is particularly the case in view of the uncertainties posed by the
millennium date change (Y2K).
As you are well aware, the largest and oldest computer system complexes in
the world are those that control nuclear weapons systems.
The very nature of the Y2K problem makes it impossible to be sure
everything has been fixed until well into the new year.
Russia has, until recently, made little effort to even acknowledge the Y2K
problem, let alone fix it. It is therefore quite possible that Russian
computerized control systems are not Y2K compliant and that they will
experience widespread failures during the Y2K rollover period.
Even more disquieting is the fact that that the Russians have constructed
the system known as 'Perimeter', or the 'dead hand'. This system seems to
include additional ways in which Y2K failure might lead to an accidental
launch.
The establishment of a Y2K strategic stability center in Colorado is
certainly an advantageous move and an absolutely essential one.
However, it does not entirely remove the danger of an accidental launch of
nuclear weapons.
The fact that the Center is scheduled, as far as we the public are aware,
to come into operation only on December 27th, four days prior to the
rollover, is far from reassuring. A four day delay will render it useless.
Similarly, the center itself will depend on the availability of
ultra-reliable hotlines between it and Moscow. The Y2K vulnerabilities
recently discovered in six of the seven hotlines on which US/Russian
communications depends, are also cause for deep concern.
If nuclear weapons are removed from a status in which they can be launched
within minutes, and placed in one which would require at least days to
launch, the risk of an accidental missile launch induced by Y2K or other
errors in command and control systems will be virtually eliminated.
This has been done by the UK, which has moved the 'notice to fire' for its
missile forces from minutes to days.
In taking De-alerting 'off the table', the United States is making a
serious error. Failure to take nuclear forces off hairtrigger alert over
the Y2K 'rollover' period is an error that has the potential of causing
unthinkable consequences.
The probability of this may be low, but it will never be zero as long as
nuclear forces remain on hair-trigger alert.
In a previous administration, President Bush took strategic bomber forces
off alert. We urge you to do this with all US nuclear forces.
(SIGNED)
etc.
2)SAMPLE LETTER TO YELTSIN/DEFENCE MINISTER SERGEYEV
THIS SAMPLE LETTER IS FOR YOU PERSONALLY TO FAX, CUSTOMIZED AS YOU FEEL
BEST, TO YELTSIN AND DEFENCE MINISTER SERGEYEV. PLEASE DO FAX IT AND SEND
IT NOW.
You can also post it to Boris Yeltsin, C/O The Kremlin, Moscow - but its
really too slow. A single A4 page fax will cost you about a dollar.
PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN,
IGOR SERGEYEV, RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTER,
+7-095-205-4330,
'Dear Defence Minister Sergeyev and President Yeltsin,
I am writing to convey my deep concern that Y2K-related computer failures
in the command and control systems for nuclear weapons may lead to an
accidental nuclear war.
I am aware that both Russia and the US have taken this problem seriously
enough to establish a joint strategic stability center in Colorado.
However, I am very much concerned that this facility will come into
operation only by 27th December 1999, so that a delay of just four days
will make it useless.
I am also very much concerned that Y2K problems have been found recently in
six out of seven of the 'hotlines' that would be used if a crisis of any
sort arose over the Y2K rollover period.
I am aware that there have been a number of occasions when either the US or
Russia have mistakenly believed that the other nation was in the process of
launching a nuclear attack.
With 3,600 Russian warheads on 700 missiles and 2,000 US warheads on 500
missiles, with each side capable to launch within roughly 20 minutes, this
must never be allowed to happen, either over the Y2K 'rollover', or at any
other time.
The use of 5,600 warheads would certainly mean the end of what we call
civilization, would likely mean the end of the human race and could
possibly mean the end of all life.
I therefore urge both you and the United States, to place all your nuclear
forces in a status in which at least days not minutes, would be required to
launch . The United Kingdom has, I understand, already done this.
The European Parliament has recently called on both the US and Russia to
de-alert nuclear weapons and to place them in a state similar to that in
which the UK has placed its weapons. The recent Europarliament vote clearly
puts de- alerting back on the table. De-alerting of nuclear forces was
strongly recommended by the Canberra Commission in 1996 and then by the
Tokyo Forum, as a way to develop strategic stability and build trust
between the US and Russia. It has also been incorporated into last year's
and this years text of the New Agenda Resolution in the UN General
Assembly. It has also been reccommended by a resolution specifically on the
subject passed by last years General Assembly and by this years First
Committee on Reduction of Nuclear Dangers. In addition it has been the
subject of two resolutions passed by the Australian Senate on 12 August and
20September, and finally it has been clearly requested by the European
Parliament. It is also the subject of congressional resolution H.Con Res177
put by Edward Markey, and most recently, the City of Berkley has asked for
it.
The immediate stakes are so high and the potential for global catastrophe
is so great, that mutually verified de-alerting of nuclear forces in the
face of the Y2K computer problem must take precedence over all other
considerations of political and national security.'
(Signed)
etc.
John Hallam
Friends of the Earth Sydney,
17 Lord street, Newtown, NSW, Australia,
Fax(61)(2)9517-3902 ph (61)(2)9517-3903
nonukes@foesyd.org.au
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd/nuclear/bbletter.html
- -
To unsubscribe to abolition-usa, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com"
with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message.
For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send
"help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.
------------------------------
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 1999 13:38:24 +1000
From: FoE Sydney - Nuclear Campaign
Subject: (abolition-usa) EUROPE SAYS TAKE 5,600 WARHEADS OFF ALERT. 35 DAYS, KEEP FAXING!
EUROPE SAYS TAKE 5,600 WARHEADS OFF ALERT. 35 DAYS TO Y2K, KEEP FAXING!
Sorry for double posting - but please spread this message far and wide.
Dear All,
There are now just 35 days until the Y2K 'rollover'.
There's not much time to get 5,600 warheads off alert.
Last Thursday (18 November), the European Parliament passed a resolution on
Y2K nuclear` reactors and nuclear weapons, in which it asked for nuclear
forces to be taken off alert over the Y2K rollover period, as well as for
reactors to be shut down.
We need to keep the faxes that have been rolling in to Cohen, Clinton, and
Yeltsin, coming! There are signs from the Pentagon that they are being
forced to respond!
There are currently 3,600 Russian warheads and 2000US warheads on
permanent, 24- hour, 'hairtrigger' alert. (this is simply the warheads in
silo- based missiles and does not include submarine or bomber or other
weapons.)
These warheads can be launched at 15-20 minutes notice.
The UK on the other hand, has recently moved the 'notice to fire ' for its
warheads, from minutes to days.
We are asking the US and Russia to do likewise.
'De-Alerting', as it is called has now been called for by the 1996 Canberra
Commission, by the Tokyo Forum, by two resolutions of the United Nations
General Assembly last year and by the same resolutions again this year, by
the Australian senate, and now by the European Parliament. A resolution by
Rep. Edward Markey has gathered 71 co- sponsors.
There are signs that the Pentagon may be feeling the impact of your faxes -
so keep faxing!
Do Please write to Cohen, Clinton, and Yeltsin, something similar to the
letters below if you haven't already done so (or even if you have).
If you are an organisation and want to sign a large sign- on letter, please
sign the letter to presidents Yeltsin and Clinton that is being periodicaly
faxed to them on
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd/nuclear/bbletter.html
(I strongly suggest that you don't use these letters word for word but
customise them or paraphrase, and shorten.)
The fax numbers have all been tried many times and work. The Russian fax
number is very slow.
You can fax defence secy Cohen on +1-703-695-1149,
You can fax Clinton on +1-202-456-2461,
You can fax Yeltsin on +7-095-205-4330,
You can fax for free on http://www.fax4free.com
2)You can sign on to the electronic petition, coordinated by NAPF.
It's at Http://www.napf.org/abolition2000/intlpetition.html
1)SAMPLE LETTER TO COHEN/CLINTON
(This is for individuals to sent to Us Secretary for Defence Cohen and
President Clinton. You can also post it to The White House, 1600
Pennsylvania Ave, Washington DC.)
TO:
WILLIAM COHEN, US SECRETARY OF DEFENCE,
+1-703-695-1149,
PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON,
WHITE HOUSE, WASHINGTON, US,
+1-202-456-2461, +1-202-456-2883.
Dear President Clinton and Secretary for Defence Cohen,
I am writing to urge your administration to take US nuclear forces off
'hairtrigger alert' even if only during the Y2K rollover period.
As you will be aware, the European Parliament recently voted to ask you and
President Yeltsin to do as the UK has already done, and de-alert nuclear
weapons.
It is particularly disturbing that Secretary Cohen has been reported as
having stated in Moscow some time ago that de-alerting of nuclear forces is
'off the table' as a stability building measure. You have also been quoted
as saying that 'The better course is reduction, limiting the number of
weapons, and establishing shared early warning centers'.
The recent Europarliament vote clearly puts de- alerting back on the table.
De-alerting of nuclear forces was strongly recommended by the Canberra
Commission in 1996 and then by the Tokyo Forum, as a way to develop
strategic stability and build trust between the US and Russia. It has also
been incorporated into last year's and this years text of the New Agenda
Resolution in the UN General Assembly. It has also been reccommended by a
resolution specifically on the subject passed by last years General
Assembly and by this years First Committee on Reduction of Nuclear Dangers.
In addition it has been the subject of two resolutions passed by the
Australian Senate on 12 August and 20September, and finally it has been
clearly requested by the European Parliament. It is also the subject of
congressional resolution H.Con Res177 put by Edward Markey, and most
recently, the City of Berkley has asked for it.
These measures are not in competition with each other. All of them -
reductions in the number of weapons, the establishment of shared early
warning centers and de-alerting - are vital to the reduction of tension
and the establishment of strategic stability.
This is particularly the case in view of the uncertainties posed by the
millennium date change (Y2K).
As you are well aware, the largest and oldest computer system complexes in
the world are those that control nuclear weapons systems.
The very nature of the Y2K problem makes it impossible to be sure
everything has been fixed until well into the new year.
Russia has, until recently, made little effort to even acknowledge the Y2K
problem, let alone fix it. It is therefore quite possible that Russian
computerized control systems are not Y2K compliant and that they will
experience widespread failures during the Y2K rollover period.
Even more disquieting is the fact that that the Russians have constructed
the system known as 'Perimeter', or the 'dead hand'. This system seems to
include additional ways in which Y2K failure might lead to an accidental
launch.
The establishment of a Y2K strategic stability center in Colorado is
certainly an advantageous move and an absolutely essential one.
However, it does not entirely remove the danger of an accidental launch of
nuclear weapons.
The fact that the Center is scheduled, as far as we the public are aware,
to come into operation only on December 27th, four days prior to the
rollover, is far from reassuring. A four day delay will render it useless.
Similarly, the center itself will depend on the availability of
ultra-reliable hotlines between it and Moscow. The Y2K vulnerabilities
recently discovered in six of the seven hotlines on which US/Russian
communications depends, are also cause for deep concern.
If nuclear weapons are removed from a status in which they can be launched
within minutes, and placed in one which would require at least days to
launch, the risk of an accidental missile launch induced by Y2K or other
errors in command and control systems will be virtually eliminated.
This has been done by the UK, which has moved the 'notice to fire' for its
missile forces from minutes to days.
In taking De-alerting 'off the table', the United States is making a
serious error. Failure to take nuclear forces off hairtrigger alert over
the Y2K 'rollover' period is an error that has the potential of causing
unthinkable consequences.
The probability of this may be low, but it will never be zero as long as
nuclear forces remain on hair-trigger alert.
In a previous administration, President Bush took strategic bomber forces
off alert. We urge you to do this with all US nuclear forces.
(SIGNED)
etc.
2)SAMPLE LETTER TO YELTSIN/DEFENCE MINISTER SERGEYEV
THIS SAMPLE LETTER IS FOR YOU PERSONALLY TO FAX, CUSTOMIZED AS YOU FEEL
BEST, TO YELTSIN AND DEFENCE MINISTER SERGEYEV. PLEASE DO FAX IT AND SEND
IT NOW.
You can also post it to Boris Yeltsin, C/O The Kremlin, Moscow - but its
really too slow. A single A4 page fax will cost you about a dollar.
PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN,
IGOR SERGEYEV, RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTER,
+7-095-205-4330,
'Dear Defence Minister Sergeyev and President Yeltsin,
I am writing to convey my deep concern that Y2K-related computer failures
in the command and control systems for nuclear weapons may lead to an
accidental nuclear war.
I am aware that both Russia and the US have taken this problem seriously
enough to establish a joint strategic stability center in Colorado.
However, I am very much concerned that this facility will come into
operation only by 27th December 1999, so that a delay of just four days
will make it useless.
I am also very much concerned that Y2K problems have been found recently in
six out of seven of the 'hotlines' that would be used if a crisis of any
sort arose over the Y2K rollover period.
I am aware that there have been a number of occasions when either the US or
Russia have mistakenly believed that the other nation was in the process of
launching a nuclear attack.
With 3,600 Russian warheads on 700 missiles and 2,000 US warheads on 500
missiles, with each side capable to launch within roughly 20 minutes, this
must never be allowed to happen, either over the Y2K 'rollover', or at any
other time.
The use of 5,600 warheads would certainly mean the end of what we call
civilization, would likely mean the end of the human race and could
possibly mean the end of all life.
I therefore urge both you and the United States, to place all your nuclear
forces in a status in which at least days not minutes, would be required to
launch . The United Kingdom has, I understand, already done this.
The European Parliament has recently called on both the US and Russia to
de-alert nuclear weapons and to place them in a state similar to that in
which the UK has placed its weapons. The recent Europarliament vote clearly
puts de- alerting back on the table. De-alerting of nuclear forces was
strongly recommended by the Canberra Commission in 1996 and then by the
Tokyo Forum, as a way to develop strategic stability and build trust
between the US and Russia. It has also been incorporated into last year's
and this years text of the New Agenda Resolution in the UN General
Assembly. It has also been reccommended by a resolution specifically on the
subject passed by last years General Assembly and by this years First
Committee on Reduction of Nuclear Dangers. In addition it has been the
subject of two resolutions passed by the Australian Senate on 12 August and
20September, and finally it has been clearly requested by the European
Parliament. It is also the subject of congressional resolution H.Con Res177
put by Edward Markey, and most recently, the City of Berkley has asked for
it.
The immediate stakes are so high and the potential for global catastrophe
is so great, that mutually verified de-alerting of nuclear forces in the
face of the Y2K computer problem must take precedence over all other
considerations of political and national security.'
(Signed)
etc.
John Hallam
Friends of the Earth Sydney,
17 Lord street, Newtown, NSW, Australia,
Fax(61)(2)9517-3902 ph (61)(2)9517-3903
nonukes@foesyd.org.au
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd/nuclear/bbletter.html
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with "unsubscribe abolition-usa" in the body of the message.
For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send
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------------------------------
Date: Mon, 29 Nov 1999 14:17:39 +1000
From: FoE Sydney - Nuclear Campaign
Subject: (abolition-usa) Keeping The Pentagon Busy: Fax Campaign Starting to Hit Home
Dear All,
There are two parts to this message - An article published in the Boston
Globe last week, posted by Bill Santlemann, which in spite of inaccuracies
gives an excellent series of reasons to keep on sending faxes to Defence
Secretary Cohen, Clinton, Yeltsin, and Sergeyev (order of priority should
be Cohen, Sergeyev, Yeltsin, Clinton) - and a series of emails from Amy
Hadden, which detail conversations between her and one Ed Hirsch in the
Pentagon.
The conversations seem to suggest that we are making headway of some kind,
and that the fax campaign should we should therefore keep right on faxing,
noting the EP resolution as we do so.
Finally I append the alert I did last friday, with sample letters and free
faxing website.
You can fax defence secy Cohen on +1-703-695-1149,
You can fax Clinton on +1-202-456-2461,
You can fax Yeltsin/Sergeyev on +7-095-205-4330,
You can fax for free on http://www.fax4free.com
*If you are an organisation* and want to sign a large sign- on letter,
please sign the letter to Presidents Yeltsin and Clinton that is being
periodicaly faxed to them on
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd/nuclear/bbletter.html
Please distribute this as far and wide as you can.
Y2K LONG SHOT: US-RUSSIAN NUCLEAR WAR
By John Donnelly, Boston Globe staff.
WASHINGTON -- It would be the world's most extreme Y2K computer glitch.
As improbable as it may be, the possibility of a mistaken launch of nuclear
missiles just as the world celebrates the new millennium has antiatomic
activists pushing anew for *disarmament* of all US and Russian nuclear
missiles.
US officials say flatly that Y2K computer problems will not cause any
accidental launch of a nuclear missile.
But arms control specialists cannot completely rule out a Y2K doomsday
scenario, which could start with computer malfunctions in Russia that cause
early-warning systems to give erroneous indications of a missile attack.
Then, under this hypothetical scenario, Russian President Boris N. Yeltsin
could order the activation of the country's "dead hand" system, which ensures
nuclear retaliation in case an attack kills the entire Moscow leadership.
Next, the Y2K bug could shut down the communication between Russia's central
command and the dead hand computer apparatus, which would proceed to launch
missiles on the basis of the false indications of an incoming attack.
And that, according to some disarmament activists, could bring nuclear
holocaust as Russia sends hundreds of nuclear missiles toward the United
States.
Much would have to go wrong for such a cataclysmic event to occur, but such
technical and human error is not absolutely out of the question, some arms
specialists warn.
Earlier this year, to add another layer of safety to prevent an accidental
launch, President Clinton and Yeltsin created a joint Y2K control room at
Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado Springs. There Russian and US officials
will sit side-by-side beginning in late December to minimize the chances of a
Y2K-triggered false alarm.
But the scenario described above is based on a "Dr. Strangelove"-like system
that exists in Russia, notably the dead hand computer program, which remains
in the hands of Moscow despite the joint command center in Colorado.
And the scenario comes against a backdrop of rising Russian anger against the
United States, the most recent point of conflict occurring last week in
Clinton's pointed criticism of the war in Chechnya. Pentagon officials say
Russia has embarked on a campaign of nuclear muscle-flexing to show its
displeasure, including a recent test of two submarine-launched missiles and
Russia's threats to send nuclear bombers to Cuba and Vietnam.
But an ongoing worry persists around Russia's deteriorating and incomplete
early-missile warning system, underscoring the dangers of having an estimated
5,000 Russian and US nuclear missiles on a hair-trigger -- Y2K or no Y2K.
While the missiles are no longer targeted on cities and nuclear sites, they
are loaded with guidance systems that, on the United States side, can be
programmed in as little time as 10 seconds, literally a flip of the switch
and then two computer keystrokes, analysts said.
"Even if the Y2K risks are low, it's important for people to appreciate the
overall risks here," said Bruce Blair, a Brookings Institution senior fellow
and a recipient this year of a MacArthur Foundation "genius grant," who has
written extensively about possible doomsday nuclear scenarios, including the
dead hand possibility.
In the view of Blair and others, Y2K is a unique event, and thus the threat
cannot be calculated.
"It is inestimable," Blair said. "Anyone who claims to know the probability
of Y2K early-warning failure in Russia is pulling it out of thin air."
In recent months, US and Russian officials have tried to assure the public
that Y2K poses no risk of a nuclear shoot-out.
Following a federal government report on the Y2K problem earlier this month,
the White House said in a statement: "Y2K problems will not cause nuclear
weapons to launch themselves. Nuclear weapons launch requires human
intervention."
A Pentagon official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the worries
of Y2K problems with Russia's nuclear system "have gotten blown way out of
proportion. We expect minor glitches in Russia, nothing of great severity."
At the Colorado center, American officials will share data from the US global
early warning network.
But distrust lingers, even at the joint command center. US officials will not
share everything from the early-warning network for fear of giving away
secrets to the Russians, and the Russians have rejected US requests to set up
another joint Y2K control center in Russia because of their own wariness of
giving away intelligence secrets.
Ill feeling has gradually built up between the two nation's militaries since
the early euphoria following the breakup of the Soviet Union. It deepened
among the Russian military hierarchy in recent months with the expansion of
NATO eastward to include three more countries; with NATO's war against Serb
forces in Kosovo; and with US intentions to build a national missile defense
system that would violate the antiballistic missile treaty.
Five US arms control specialists, some working for the Clinton administration
or Congress and some at universities, have said recently that their contacts
in Russia have dried up because Russian intelligence agents have told
scientists to cease contacts with Americans.
In the last month, the possible Y2K threat has galvanized many antinuclear
activists, including Helen M. Caldicott, author Jonathan Schell, and former
arms negotiator Paul Nitze, who have called on Clinton in full-page newspaper
advertisements to "de-alert" thousands of nuclear missiles. De-alerting
literally means taking missiles off high alert, removing the hair trigger by
dismantling missile components.
Last summer, Representative Edward J. Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat,
introduced a resolution calling for immediate de-alerting of nuclear missiles.
But US and Russian officials have rejected the idea. US Defense Secretary
William S. Cohen said in Moscow recently that de-alerting was "off the table."
The obstacles, according to Pentagon officials and arms control specialists,
lie in verification and lack of trust.
"As long as the US and Russia see each as potential adversaries, this is
going to be the situation" of missiles on hair-trigger, said Theodore A.
Postol, a MIT professor of science, technology, and national security policy.
"That will also be the situation if one side sees itself as vulnerable to a
damaging strike."
That now would be Russia, because its nuclear forces are "extremely
vulnerable to a US strike," Postol said. Many Russian nuclear missiles are
either in silos or are collected together in corrugated steel buildings,
making them a possible lucrative target in a nuclear war. Many US nuclear
missiles, in comparison, are on submarines, which can evade detection.
A US arms control official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said
de-alerting would be extremely difficult in practice because of the
difficulty of verification. "You have to imagine all sorts of shenanigans
there would be over verification," the official said. "Once you mention the
word 'verification,' the idea loses some of its attractiveness."
But for some arms control analysts, there seems little reason to keep so many
missiles on high alert a decade after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
"What's the threat? Does anyone think there is going to be a
bolt-out-of-the-blue attack?" said Joseph Cirincione, senior associate at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington think tank. "Does
anyone believe that the Russians would do this for some reason, that they
would try to do a preemptive strike? I think it's just insane at this point."
Blair, the Brookings analyst who has had extensive contacts with Russian
counterparts, said while both the United States and Russia find a preemptive
strike scenario "bizarre," the issue cannot be totally dismissed because of
Russia's rising distrust of the United States.
Asked if the Y2K doomsday scenario, which has been so roundly dismissed by US
officials, was cause for losing sleep, Blair did not respond reassuringly.
"Why should you sleep at night? Why should you sleep if nobody knows? Maybe
you need a sleeping pill," he said. "You can hope and trust that the
probability is extremely small. But we certainly don't know that."
PENTAGON RESPONSE TO CALLS TO DE-ALERT
_ _ _ _ _
>
>Message 1 - Nov 20:
>
> Tom:
> I hope this finds all of you well. For your information, yesterday
>morning I received a call from Ed Kirsch at the PENTAGON, of all places,
>in response to a letter I wrote to President Clinton about placing nuke
>weapons on de-alert status. Ed and I spoke for about 45 minutes. He
>said on more than one occasion that "no nuclear weapons will be launched
>as result of Y2K problems" or "no nuclear weapons will be accidentally
>launched." I was surprised that a government official would issue that
>precise of a statement since most of the time, gov't is non-committal
>with its "neither confirm nor deny" stance. I don't believe that this
>was a bogus call since I didn't send a copy of the letter anywhere else.
>Perhaps there is some sort of reassurance available that nukes will not
>go off after all... He told me that missiles in silos and subs have
>been de-targeted. I think I know what that means; but, will contact Ed
>again for verification before I broadcast it to others. I doubt that
>nukes will be placed on de-alert status by New Year's; but, I urge
>people to continue writing in favor of it. Perhaps it will eventually
>de-stall START talks and ratification of START II in Russia...
> If you would like more details about the conversation, feel free to
>ask. It was interesting. I assume Ed is calling lots of people but I'm
>not sure what the criteria is for receiving a call. I mean, I don't
>know if he is calling everyone who writes in or what.
>
>Thanks. Amy Hadden Marsh, Glenwood Springs, Colorado
>
>_ _ _ _ _ _
I had another conversation with him today re: the
>EC's decision to put nukes on de-alert status. Pentagon guy says that
>this will not influence Clinton's decision because it would take more
>than the EC. Namely, Russia. It seems that if Russia does, the U.S.
>might.
----- Original Message -----
From: Amy Hadden Marsh
Subject: a guy from the Pentagon...
...called me this morning. His name is Ed Kirsch. He works in the
Y2K department or whatever they call it. We spoke for about 45 minutes
about Y2K and the reasons it's okay not to be prepared. (I declined to
tell him that I have been preparing for over a year.) He originally
called because I had written Clinton about placing weapons on de-alert
status. I had also added that I was not reassured just because a few
Russians and Americans would be sitting next to each other in Colorado
Springs on New Year's Eve watching screens to see if weapons had been
launched.
Mr. Kirsch was an interesting fellow and a pretty real guy. He said on
more than one occasion, that no nuclear weapons will be launched as result
of Y2K glitches. He also said that in order for the U.S. to
take weapons off de-alert status, Russia would have to do that,too.
He said that there is nothing that U.S. citizens could do to help that to
occur at this point. He also stated that missiles in silos and subs have
been de-targeted; but, until START II is ratified in Russia, de-alert
status probably won't happen.
He mentioned your name and I asked him how he knew you.
Apparently, he had spoken with you on the phone when you were in DC.
At any rate, I thought it was interesting that the U.S. Gov't is spending
money, and most likely lots of it, to contact each person who has
written in about Y2K concerns. I think more people should write in so
it will keep Mr. Kirsch busy.
>
>_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
SO KEEP RIGHT ON FAXING! HERE IS FRIDAYS ALERT INCLUDING SAMPLE LETTERS AND
FAX FOR FREE WEBSITE:
EUROPE SAYS TAKE 5,600 WARHEADS OFF ALERT. 35 DAYS TO Y2K, KEEP FAXING!
Sorry for double posting - but please spread this message far and wide.
Dear All,
There are now just 35 days until the Y2K 'rollover'.
There's not much time to get 5,600 warheads off alert.
Last Thursday (18 November), the European Parliament passed a resolution on
Y2K nuclear` reactors and nuclear weapons, in which it asked for nuclear
forces to be taken off alert over the Y2K rollover period, as well as for
reactors to be shut down.
We need to keep the faxes that have been rolling in to Cohen, Clinton, and
Yeltsin, coming! There are signs from the Pentagon that they are being
forced to respond!
There are currently 3,600 Russian warheads and 2000US warheads on
permanent, 24- hour, 'hairtrigger' alert. (this is simply the warheads in
silo- based missiles and does not include submarine or bomber or other
weapons.)
These warheads can be launched at 15-20 minutes notice.
The UK on the other hand, has recently moved the 'notice to fire ' for its
warheads, from minutes to days.
We are asking the US and Russia to do likewise.
'De-Alerting', as it is called has now been called for by the 1996 Canberra
Commission, by the Tokyo Forum, by two resolutions of the United Nations
General Assembly last year and by the same resolutions again this year, by
the Australian senate, and now by the European Parliament. A resolution by
Rep. Edward Markey has gathered 71 co- sponsors.
There are signs that the Pentagon may be feeling the impact of your faxes -
so keep faxing!
Do Please write to Cohen, Clinton, and Yeltsin, something similar to the
letters below if you haven't already done so (or even if you have).
If you are an organisation and want to sign a large sign- on letter, please
sign the letter to presidents Yeltsin and Clinton that is being periodicaly
faxed to them on
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd/nuclear/bbletter.html
(I strongly suggest that you don't use these letters word for word but
customise them or paraphrase, and shorten.)
The fax numbers have all been tried many times and work. The Russian fax
number is very slow.
You can fax defence secy Cohen on +1-703-695-1149,
You can fax Clinton on +1-202-456-2461,
You can fax Yeltsin on +7-095-205-4330,
You can fax for free on http://www.fax4free.com
2)You can sign on to the electronic petition, coordinated by NAPF.
It's at Http://www.napf.org/abolition2000/intlpetition.html
1)SAMPLE LETTER TO COHEN/CLINTON
(This is for individuals to sent to Us Secretary for Defence Cohen and
President Clinton. You can also post it to The White House, 1600
Pennsylvania Ave, Washington DC.)
TO:
WILLIAM COHEN, US SECRETARY OF DEFENCE,
+1-703-695-1149,
PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON,
WHITE HOUSE, WASHINGTON, US,
+1-202-456-2461, +1-202-456-2883.
Dear President Clinton and Secretary for Defence Cohen,
I am writing to urge your administration to take US nuclear forces off
'hairtrigger alert' even if only during the Y2K rollover period.
As you will be aware, the European Parliament recently voted to ask you and
President Yeltsin to do as the UK has already done, and de-alert nuclear
weapons.
It is particularly disturbing that Secretary Cohen has been reported as
having stated in Moscow some time ago that de-alerting of nuclear forces is
'off the table' as a stability building measure. You have also been quoted
as saying that 'The better course is reduction, limiting the number of
weapons, and establishing shared early warning centers'.
The recent Europarliament vote clearly puts de- alerting back on the table.
De-alerting of nuclear forces was strongly recommended by the Canberra
Commission in 1996 and then by the Tokyo Forum, as a way to develop
strategic stability and build trust between the US and Russia. It has also
been incorporated into last year's and this years text of the New Agenda
Resolution in the UN General Assembly. It has also been reccommended by a
resolution specifically on the subject passed by last years General
Assembly and by this years First Committee on Reduction of Nuclear Dangers.
In addition it has been the subject of two resolutions passed by the
Australian Senate on 12 August and 20September, and finally it has been
clearly requested by the European Parliament. It is also the subject of
congressional resolution H.Con Res177 put by Edward Markey, and most
recently, the City of Berkley has asked for it.
These measures are not in competition with each other. All of them -
reductions in the number of weapons, the establishment of shared early
warning centers and de-alerting - are vital to the reduction of tension
and the establishment of strategic stability.
This is particularly the case in view of the uncertainties posed by the
millennium date change (Y2K).
As you are well aware, the largest and oldest computer system complexes in
the world are those that control nuclear weapons systems.
The very nature of the Y2K problem makes it impossible to be sure
everything has been fixed until well into the new year.
Russia has, until recently, made little effort to even acknowledge the Y2K
problem, let alone fix it. It is therefore quite possible that Russian
computerized control systems are not Y2K compliant and that they will
experience widespread failures during the Y2K rollover period.
Even more disquieting is the fact that that the Russians have constructed
the system known as 'Perimeter', or the 'dead hand'. This system seems to
include additional ways in which Y2K failure might lead to an accidental
launch.
The establishment of a Y2K strategic stability center in Colorado is
certainly an advantageous move and an absolutely essential one.
However, it does not entirely remove the danger of an accidental launch of
nuclear weapons.
The fact that the Center is scheduled, as far as we the public are aware,
to come into operation only on December 27th, four days prior to the
rollover, is far from reassuring. A four day delay will render it useless.
Similarly, the center itself will depend on the availability of
ultra-reliable hotlines between it and Moscow. The Y2K vulnerabilities
recently discovered in six of the seven hotlines on which US/Russian
communications depends, are also cause for deep concern.
If nuclear weapons are removed from a status in which they can be launched
within minutes, and placed in one which would require at least days to
launch, the risk of an accidental missile launch induced by Y2K or other
errors in command and control systems will be virtually eliminated.
This has been done by the UK, which has moved the 'notice to fire' for its
missile forces from minutes to days.
In taking De-alerting 'off the table', the United States is making a
serious error. Failure to take nuclear forces off hairtrigger alert over
the Y2K 'rollover' period is an error that has the potential of causing
unthinkable consequences.
The probability of this may be low, but it will never be zero as long as
nuclear forces remain on hair-trigger alert.
In a previous administration, President Bush took strategic bomber forces
off alert. We urge you to do this with all US nuclear forces.
(SIGNED)
etc.
2)SAMPLE LETTER TO YELTSIN/DEFENCE MINISTER SERGEYEV
THIS SAMPLE LETTER IS FOR YOU PERSONALLY TO FAX, CUSTOMIZED AS YOU FEEL
BEST, TO YELTSIN AND DEFENCE MINISTER SERGEYEV. PLEASE DO FAX IT AND SEND
IT NOW.
You can also post it to Boris Yeltsin, C/O The Kremlin, Moscow - but its
really too slow. A single A4 page fax will cost you about a dollar.
PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN,
IGOR SERGEYEV, RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTER,
+7-095-205-4330,
'Dear Defence Minister Sergeyev and President Yeltsin,
I am writing to convey my deep concern that Y2K-related computer failures
in the command and control systems for nuclear weapons may lead to an
accidental nuclear war.
I am aware that both Russia and the US have taken this problem seriously
enough to establish a joint strategic stability center in Colorado.
However, I am very much concerned that this facility will come into
operation only by 27th December 1999, so that a delay of just four days
will make it useless.
I am also very much concerned that Y2K problems have been found recently in
six out of seven of the 'hotlines' that would be used if a crisis of any
sort arose over the Y2K rollover period.
I am aware that there have been a number of occasions when either the US or
Russia have mistakenly believed that the other nation was in the process of
launching a nuclear attack.
With 3,600 Russian warheads on 700 missiles and 2,000 US warheads on 500
missiles, with each side capable to launch within roughly 20 minutes, this
must never be allowed to happen, either over the Y2K 'rollover', or at any
other time.
The use of 5,600 warheads would certainly mean the end of what we call
civilization, would likely mean the end of the human race and could
possibly mean the end of all life.
I therefore urge both you and the United States, to place all your nuclear
forces in a status in which at least days not minutes, would be required to
launch . The United Kingdom has, I understand, already done this.
The European Parliament has recently called on both the US and Russia to
de-alert nuclear weapons and to place them in a state similar to that in
which the UK has placed its weapons. The recent Europarliament vote clearly
puts de- alerting back on the table. De-alerting of nuclear forces was
strongly recommended by the Canberra Commission in 1996 and then by the
Tokyo Forum, as a way to develop strategic stability and build trust
between the US and Russia. It has also been incorporated into last year's
and this years text of the New Agenda Resolution in the UN General
Assembly. It has also been reccommended by a resolution specifically on the
subject passed by last years General Assembly and by this years First
Committee on Reduction of Nuclear Dangers. In addition it has been the
subject of two resolutions passed by the Australian Senate on 12 August and
20September, and finally it has been clearly requested by the European
Parliament. It is also the subject of congressional resolution H.Con Res177
put by Edward Markey, and most recently, the City of Berkley has asked for
it.
The immediate stakes are so high and the potential for global catastrophe
is so great, that mutually verified de-alerting of nuclear forces in the
face of the Y2K computer problem must take precedence over all other
considerations of political and national security.'
(Signed)
etc.
John Hallam
Friends of the Earth Sydney,
17 Lord street, Newtown, NSW, Australia,
Fax(61)(2)9517-3902 ph (61)(2)9517-3903
nonukes@foesyd.org.au
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd
http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd/nuclear/bbletter.html
>
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------------------------------
End of abolition-usa-digest V1 #228
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