From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription Date: 01 Jul 1999 08:00:02 -0600 This is a monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are two remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group, or 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. To change your configuration, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@lists.xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: [CANSLIM] Marder Date: 01 Jul 1999 07:03:40 -0700 Just found this, some of you have no doubt read it already: http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990701/news/current/marder.htx?source=b lq/yhoo&dist=yhoo As usual, Marder is right-on. Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? Date: 30 Jun 1999 22:10:31 -0400 Jeffry-- Damn, you farmers won't give a city boy an inch without trying to plow him under some. Give me two or three stocks that are unquestionably CS and in the early stage that a CSer would be invited to buy, or about to buy. And I'll turn my wolf indicators loose. Oh, did I tell you that I'm back in TGLO. Left some money on the table when I got out too early, but I'm up a half point today. Did I make enough to buy one of your rams? Connie postwhit@sover.net wrote: > > Date: Mon, 28 Jun 1999 08:53:10 -0400 > > From: Connie Mack Rea > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C.....M, TA? > > > > What's the matter? Why so testy early in the morning? Have to stay up with a sick lamb? > > Asking nicely never got much out of you, as far as help on CANSLIM entry > points was concerned. Figured I'd resort to my nasty side. Lambies are > fine, got three brood ewes shipping in this weekend. The ram lambs have > know idea the class they'll be latching onto this fall. > > > This morning we'll see if TGLO will give me some spending money or not. I've got a 1000 > > at 16.93. > > Nice trade, Doc. > > > Now. Just how do you want me to save some Canslim asses from their own devices? > > Same way I've asked you to do on this board for the past year or > two....get a CANSLIM candidate that someone is watching, that everybody > agrees is worthy of getting a piece of, and show us how your indicators > help a CS'er get in, out, etc. Nothing personal against the internet > flop, TGLO, just looking to see you teach a bit on a CANSLIM pick, for > the benefit of all of us who can't play that kind of issue. > > > How's the system working? > > Getting the kinks out of it, no thanks to you. ;) Actually long July > OEX 660 Calls from 21 7/8. Better than a double on the bid at today's > close. Looks like a bit more, and then it's Puts again. > > Back from below the Mason-Dixon, Jeffry. > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Marder Date: 01 Jul 1999 11:00:30 -0400 Tim, You wrote: >Just found this, some of you have no doubt read it already: > >http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990701/news/current/marder.htx?source=b >lq/yhoo&dist=yhoo Not me - thanks for the heads up! >As usual, Marder is right-on. I could not agree more. Best Regards, Craig > > >Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists >Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >PFB Information >mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW http://OreRockOn.com > >- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Sending large files to the canslim group Date: 02 Jul 1999 08:00:02 -0600 Everyone, There are times when you may wish to share large files with our group (i.e. gif, jpeg, spreadsheets, etc). Our list is configured to reject large postings (even if they are properly encoded) since the sheer volume has caused problems in the past. As an alternative, we have provided an anonymous ftp site. To provide your file to the group, please follow these instructions: 1. Send your file to: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ If you need some help doing this step, there are ftp instructions below. 2. Send mail to me directly at "owner-canslim@xmission.com" telling me the name of the file that you uploaded. I will move the file from the incoming directory, to the canslim directory where people will be able to download your file. 3. After I notify you that the file has been moved to the canslim directory, you should send an email to the canslim group describing your file, and its URL (i.e. ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/GreatBoom.gif). Although this may seem unwieldy at first, it really isn't too bad and it solves more problems than it creates. You should note that I do not monitor my email on the weekends as closely as during the week. Therefore, steps 2-3 may take longer over a weekend. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury =========================================================================== FTP Instructions: 1. Using Netscape, go to the URL: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ 2. On the Netscape "File" menu, select "Upload File..." This will open a file selection widget on your hard-drive. Select the file you wish to upload and hit the "Ok" button. At this point, your file will be uploaded. 3. Eventhough your file has been uploaded, you will not be able to see the file in your netscape browser. The reason for this is that the "incoming" directory is set to write-only for security reasons. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Begin of the Small Cap fest? Date: 02 Jul 1999 14:04:39 GMT To add to this, the RUT was the only index I know of that declined yesterday. Dan On Wed, 30 Jun 1999 01:01:05 GMT, you wrote: :On Tue, 29 Jun 1999 21:33:23 +0200, you wrote: : ::RUT broke out today. Don't have the volume yet though. :: ::Looks like the small caps are ready for their day in the sun. ::: ::Johan : :I'm sorry if I'm disillusioning you, Johan, but the Russell 2000 :underperformed the market today. Here are the figures: : :^RUT ^WIL5 ^IXIC ^NYA ^SPX : :Place the above symbols in a portfolio at finance.yahoo and you get :this: : :R2000: +1.22% : :Wilshire 5000 (the gamut, and therefore an average of all indexes, as I :understand it: +1.52% : :Nasdaq Comp: +1.52% : :NYSE Comp: +1.45% : :S&P 500: +1.51% : :Dan Musicant : : :- : - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: [CANSLIM] ARMHY Breakout and Goldman Recommendation Date: 02 Jul 1999 17:42:36 -0400 From Yahoo: --- Friday July 2, 12:14 pm Eastern Time ARM surges on Goldman recommendation LONDON, July 2 (Reuters) - Shares in British microchip designer ARM Holdings plc soared to a record high on Friday in response to repeated positive comments on the stock from Goldman Sachs, dealers said. --- ARMHY was also up over 10% Thursday on double average volume. I am trying to interpret this. My guess is that Goldman Sachs made the recommendation to some investors yesterday not today. Can one of the more market-savvy group members clue me in on what may have happened here? Thanks, Hugh - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ben Heffer Subject: [CANSLIM] featured business Date: 02 Jul 1999 18:54:24 -0600 In reading IBD closely, there is always a featured business towards the back of section A. Thursdays is Jones Apparel (JNY). I know these are not necessarily endorsements of a business for investment, but have these companies featured here, actually panned out and been winners over time?? Thanks. Ben Heffer 963-2428 home 945-9183 work Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design mailto:bheffer@sopris.net ICQ# is 8736058 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ben Heffer Subject: [CANSLIM] industry rankings and rank within Date: 02 Jul 1999 19:27:53 -0600 Has anyone found one source for industry ranking and rank within a group on the Net? Also, take a look at DY performance. Looks like a flat base with one spike in the last few days and then settled down to another flat base. When using CS thinking, is this all one base or a start of a new base? The fundamentals look pretty darned good. Thoughts? Ben 963-2428 home 945-9183 work Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design mailto:bheffer@sopris.net ICQ# is 8736058 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Hogan Subject: [CANSLIM] EMC Date: 02 Jul 1999 18:36:34 -0700 (MST) Hi- What do you guys think of EMC? An analyst on WSW who hasn't had a pick in the negative column this year mentioned this one, along with others. This one is the only stock that looks somewhat CANSLIM to me Anti-CANSLIM areas seem to be an increasing debt, and a weak industry group. The chart looks nice to me as long as it shows some strength in the next week or so. Right now it's a little below the breakout point. C - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Sanson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EMC Date: 02 Jul 1999 22:57:09 -0400 As far as CANSLIM goes I've always thought that EMC was worth a good look. Many of the CANSLIM indicators are there. Although I didn't buy it myself until I had a personal experience with the company. I spent several months contracting there as a Systems Engineer and I left very impressed by their business. A relatively young company, they recently had their first billion dollar quarter. They are already ahead of IBM (the previous market leader) in data storage. Another piece of trivia... They installed their first petabyte data storage system in 1997! I was impressed with how quickly they are moving and how well managed they are. From a sales force of a couple hundred a few years ago, to over 2,000 today! They are a leader in the one part of the computer industry that has not yet taken off--data storage. There is plenty of room for expansion ahead for them. Hope this little bit of "insider" information helps! ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, July 02, 1999 9:36 PM > > Hi- > > What do you guys think of EMC? An analyst on WSW who hasn't had a > pick in the negative column this year mentioned this one, along with > others. This one is the only stock that looks somewhat CANSLIM to me > Anti-CANSLIM areas seem to be an increasing debt, and a > weak industry group. The chart looks nice to me as long as it shows > some strength in the next week or so. Right now it's a little > below the breakout point. > > C > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: DY and Re: [CANSLIM] industry rankings and rank within Date: 03 Jul 1999 00:49:49 -0400 Ben, can't help on a free net site for industry rankings as I use DGO for this stuff exclusively. On DY, to me the timing looks atrocious, a breakout right before a long weekend. Volume on Wed, followed by volume follow thru with major price improvement on Thu, then huge drop in volume and price today. At the moment, looks more like a failed rally. Definitely way too early to consider it as a new base forming. Could show follow thru next week when the big guys come back from their long weekend, or could retreat right back into the base. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Has anyone found one source for industry ranking and rank within a group on the Net? Also, take a look at DY performance. Looks like a flat base with one spike in the last few days and then settled down to another flat base. When using CS thinking, is this all one base or a start of a new base? The fundamentals look pretty darned good. Thoughts? Ben 963-2428 home 945-9183 work Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design mailto:bheffer@sopris.net ICQ# is 8736058 - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EMC Date: 03 Jul 1999 00:55:22 -0400 Craig, With a GRS of 88, the group is fine. I would be more concerned about the A/D of D and RS of 89. It's also a long way out of the top five in its group. U/D ratio of 0.9 is not especially appealing either in this group. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hi- What do you guys think of EMC? An analyst on WSW who hasn't had a pick in the negative column this year mentioned this one, along with others. This one is the only stock that looks somewhat CANSLIM to me Anti-CANSLIM areas seem to be an increasing debt, and a weak industry group. The chart looks nice to me as long as it shows some strength in the next week or so. Right now it's a little below the breakout point. C - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? Date: 03 Jul 1999 06:37:42 -0400 Doctor, BTW, use the past two months of data on those four stocks for your illustrations, they are all beyond the initial breakout and not necessarily "in the early stage that a CSer would be invited to buy, or about to buy." Waiting.... Jeff - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? Date: 03 Jul 1999 07:13:57 -0400 Jeffry-- What four stocks? Connie postwhit@sover.net wrote: > Doctor, > > BTW, use the past two months of data on those four stocks for your > illustrations, they are all beyond the initial breakout and not > necessarily "in the early stage that a CSer would be invited to buy, or > about to buy." > > Waiting.... > > Jeff > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Accessing the discussion canslim archives... Date: 03 Jul 1999 08:00:02 -0600 From time to time, CANSLIM members may wish to browse the discussion archives. This posting provides instructions on how to access the archives. Thanks to David Cameron for compiling the essentials of this message. Here are the two ways to access the archives: 1. The best way is to use your web browser. To browse the archives, point your browser to: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/cgi/lwgate.cgi/CANSLIM/ You can do simple key-word searches on the archive by going to: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/search.html 2. (Not as convenient) via email: Send an email to majordomo@xmission.com with the following as the body of your message: "index canslim". Then send a follow up email to request an old email from either the "archive" or "latest" directory. Note that your request must be in the body of your email. For example: "get canslim latest/001" will retrieve file "001" from the "latest" directory. "get canslim archive/v01.n066" will retrieve file "v01.n066" from the "archive" dir. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list owner/admin - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? Date: 03 Jul 1999 06:32:48 -0400 > Date: Wed, 30 Jun 1999 22:10:31 -0400 > From: Connie Mack Rea > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? > > Jeffry-- > > Damn, you farmers won't give a city boy an inch without trying to plow him under some. > > Give me two or three stocks that are unquestionably CS and in the early stage that a CSer would > be invited to buy, or about to buy. And I'll turn my wolf indicators loose. > > Oh, did I tell you that I'm back in TGLO. Left some money on the table when I got out too > early, but I'm up a half point today. Did I make enough to buy one of your rams? > > Connie > Uh-oh, you mean I gotta come up with a CANSLIM stock? Got my nose so far up the M's wazoo, I'm not sure my skills are sharp enough to recognize anything other than an internut IPO flop. Let's see...how's about: QCOM, ADTN, CUBE and, uh, an easy one like CREE. Perhaps those with more refined CANSLIM skills will weed out this little patch, but I think they provide good vehicles for you, Prof. What do you say, Doctor? 1/2 a point won't touch a ram lamb of stud quality, BTW. But, what do you care? Your X-mas leg is ready to hit my freezer, free of charge. JW - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? Date: 03 Jul 1999 11:10:19 -0400 Jeffry, I get forgetful in my old age, who was it that put you in charge of making, and changing, the rules? From what I can recall, a CANSLIM stock that has already broken out and passed a point 10% over the base is no longer, at least technically, a true CANSLIM stock. Thus I am confused by the candidates you offer Connie: Jeffry wrote: "Let's see...how's about: QCOM, ADTN, CUBE and, uh, an easy one like CREE. Perhaps those with more refined CANSLIM skills will weed out this little patch, but I think they provide good vehicles for you, Prof. What do you say, Doctor?" Of the four candidates you mention, my interpretation of their charts suggests only CUBE is still within CANSLIM buyable guidelines. While I have personally encouraged Connie to apply, and post, his trading techniques on more CANSLIM stocks, I still have benefited and learned from his many posts even on non-CANSLIM stocks. I can't speak for any other of the 700+ members of this group, but I also appreciate and have gained from his "discovered sites", and other internet resources, posted by him and many other members. I realize I've asked before, but I would like to humbly suggest you offer up either your CANSLIM watch list, or else at least four viable and valid CANSLIM candidates that are still buyable, or worth short term watching, according to most of WON's rules? Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Doctor, BTW, use the past two months of data on those four stocks for your illustrations, they are all beyond the initial breakout and not necessarily "in the early stage that a CSer would be invited to buy, or about to buy." Waiting.... Jeff - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Some "M", DGO list, and other stuff Date: 03 Jul 1999 11:38:46 -0400 Just finished my "15 second scan" of the stocks making Daily Graph's list from Friday. Total jumped to 198 stocks, and breadth is most impressive, no surprise given that VIX fell most of the week and closed well under 20. Also no surprise most charts showed that the stock had already made its move, or at least begun, by Friday. The Feds gave us the best possible scenario, and well over expectations, even mine. They upped the rate by 25 BP, satisfying the fears that needed a rate hike and calming the fears of an even greater rate hike; they verbalized that this hike was to offset (wash out) the long since recognized as unneeded third cut last year (as opposed to it being needed to curtail imminent inflation); and they not only changed the bias to neutral, but announced it as well, thus showing they wanted us to know this right away rather than wait a month for the minutes to be released. Most major indexes were hitting new highs last week, and on volume, esp considering an upcoming long weekend. Lagging once again was the small caps, but these new highs now are being made without the assistance of the internut stocks. The best they could muster was to not continue being a drag on the market, and show some capacity for recovery, at least among the better names. I sense that earnings growth is once again attracting the attention of the institutional money managers. And that's great for CANSLIMers! In scrolling thru the 198 stocks on the DGO list (and for those with time constaints this took me less than 45 minutes for them, including writing margin notes and some more detailed study on certain charts), I could not help but note that there were very few still sitting in their base. Most were already making a move, and usually up. Please remember that I am essentially only looking at chart patterns, as the list is already pre-screened for RS/EPS over 80 and A/D of C or better. Most of the ones I noted below had CS elements well over this criteria. But you must do your own homework. Here's the list of comments I made: SFP - short base FWRD - B/O from nice base JAKK - base? TLAB - basing CHKP - b/o, no vol UNPH - LLUR MNMD - short base after both a split and a secondary completed CMVT - basing ADBE - short base SCOR - base HH - volume dropping, going to make a move either way VRLN - sold some assets, base DTM - breakout in progress? SYKE - basing FM - LLUR NT - sloppy LLUR ATYT - B/O?, base? BJ - basing CUBE - short base, B/O?, volume? NATI - base SNPS - base APPB - base DCI - base Happy hunting, looks like a good summer with strong 2nd quarter earnings soon to be released. So far, the preannouncements (which are almost always negative or to offset rumors of bad news) have been few and far between. And next week starts the release of earnings from the biggest and most important cos, and looks promising for a continuation of last week's rally. Now, if we can only get the bond market well under 6%! Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? Date: 03 Jul 1999 15:03:38 -0400 Tom and Jeffry and Connie, You wrote: >From what >I can recall, a CANSLIM stock that has already broken out >and passed a point 10% over the base is no longer, at least >technically, a true CANSLIM stock. Thus I am confused by the >candidates you offer Connie: > >Jeffry wrote: >"Let's see...how's about: QCOM, ADTN, CUBE and, uh, an easy >one like >CREE. My thoughts, these are all good CS stocks (even if three might be extended for a buy at the moment). CUBE is just completing what looks like a 2 year base - it is a turnaround. I especially like QCOM and CREE. What if Connie applied his TA indicators to those two to see if he comes up with any recommendations on when either stocks signals an entry or exit over the last couple of months. CREE broke out on 5/18 and QCOM on 6/18. It would be interesting to know if Connie sees either early or later entry or exit signals. I would like to find either appropriate signals to enter stocks early or to enter them late (after they are extended) with lower risk. Also any exit signals would be interesting as well as any confirming signals on or around the breakout day. Not that these stocks will give any signals using Connie's methods, but whatever they tell him might be nice to hear. Also any thing that applies to any candidates that come up in discussion, such as some stocks from Tom's DG filtering or someones favorite candidate, etc. We just had some brief discussion of stocks with low volume breakouts (VRSN and RFMD, both on 06/29, for example). Would be interesting if any TA indicators gave Connie a buy or sell on those around those dates (both followed through with volume on the next day, but I misssed them). Just some thoughts. I fully agree with Jeffry that I hope no one on the list is ever confused into thinking that Connie's typical picks or methods have anything to do with CANSLIM. But I do occassionally find his comments and techniques interesting. Especially on extremely short term thinking. For a while I paid close attention to his 3 very short moving averages and their crossovers (forget which they were now). And it did seem to have some usefulness. But too short term for my style, in general. So it might be cool to see some Connie TA applied to some CS stocks once in a while to give us any additional insights. Course it may turn out that CS stocks trade in a way that make Connie's TA not very useful, and that the beaten up junk stocks tend to work best with his techniques. I noticed that even when he was trading DELL lately (a great CS stock), it was only after it had been well beaten up and was meeting support in a downtrend. A distinctly non-CS technique (but somebody has to trade that way - just not me). Well, there I go rambling again. Better cut it off. Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? Date: 03 Jul 1999 16:42:38 -0400 Things appear to be nominally unsettled about my looking at an acceptable CS stock and applying TA. One of the difficulties Tom brought up. When does a stock become a CS candidate and when does it rise out of CS candidacy? [To become what?] Craig says CREE broke out on 5-18. But did it also break out twice in June? And once more in July? When was it a CS candidate for the first time? Would a CSer wish to apply technical indicators in May, June, or July? If one is buying breakouts, as some traders do, it would be no problem to get set up such that I could trade on all four breakouts. What CSers seem to be asking is not about every breakout, but rather a new high breakout. Does this mean, however, a 52-week new high? Two-year high? Lengthier still? When I pulled up my CREE chart, for some reason I have a support/resistance line drawn in at 36.3 Because my trendlines indicate where I originated them, I put mine in in late February because I wanted to see if price was going to hold on the two January bottoms. When it didn't,I lost interest. But I do see that 36.3 did hold in May and was a good entry. I haven't looked at CREE again until today, but in retrospect do see that there was a trading opportunity when it bounced. More about this opportunity later if CREE is a finally agreed on stock to look at. Okay, fellows, pick a couple of stocks and let's see what falls loose. Connie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? Date: 03 Jul 1999 16:59:44 -0400 How about GPS and AXTI? Both have recently risen to the top of "cups". Both look like good CANSLIM stocks to me with the following exceptions: GPS is just below the top 5 in its group. AXTI has decelerated (but adequate) earnings growth. Hugh Connie Mack Rea wrote: > Things appear to be nominally unsettled about my looking at an > acceptable CS stock and applying TA. > > One of the difficulties Tom brought up. When does a stock become a CS > candidate and when does it rise out of CS candidacy? [To become what?] > > Craig says CREE broke out on 5-18. But did it also break out twice in > June? > > And once more in July? When was it a CS candidate for the first time? > Would a CSer wish to apply technical indicators in May, June, or July? > > If one is buying breakouts, as some traders do, it would be no problem > to get set up such that I could trade on all four breakouts. What CSers > seem to be asking is not about every breakout, but rather a new high > breakout. Does this mean, however, a 52-week new high? Two-year high? > Lengthier still? > > When I pulled up my CREE chart, for some reason I have a > support/resistance line drawn in at 36.3 Because my trendlines indicate > where I originated them, I put mine in in late February because I wanted > to see if price was going to hold on the two January bottoms. When it > didn't,I lost interest. But I do see that 36.3 did hold in May and was > a good entry. > > I haven't looked at CREE again until today, but in retrospect do see > that there was a trading opportunity when it bounced. More about this > opportunity later if CREE is a finally agreed on stock to look at. > > Okay, fellows, pick a couple of stocks and let's see what falls loose. > > Connie > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ben Heffer Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? Date: 03 Jul 1999 15:52:46 -0600 At 04:59 PM 7/3/99 -0400, you wrote: >How about GPS and AXTI? Both have recently risen to the top of "cups". Both >look like good CANSLIM stocks to me with the following exceptions: GPS is >just below the top 5 in its group. AXTI has decelerated (but adequate) >earnings growth. > >Hugh > Hi Hugh, Were do you pick up this info about which stocks are in which position in their industry? Also, when IBD features a business, do they tend to pan out well? Thanks, Ben 963-2428 home 945-9183 work Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design mailto:bheffer@sopris.net ICQ# is 8736058 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? Date: 03 Jul 1999 18:03:05 -0400 Ben, Daily Graphs Online lists the top 5 companies in each stock's industry group along with all kinds of other stats. I think you could also figure this out with the industry group book that IBD publishes, but it would be a lot of work. I'm not sure how IBD-featured stocks do on average. I have seen a couple of them jump the next day. But it could be coincidental, so I wouldn't draw any conclusions from this. Ben Heffer wrote: > At 04:59 PM 7/3/99 -0400, you wrote: > >How about GPS and AXTI? Both have recently risen to the top of "cups". Both > >look like good CANSLIM stocks to me with the following exceptions: GPS is > >just below the top 5 in its group. AXTI has decelerated (but adequate) > >earnings growth. > > > >Hugh > > > > Hi Hugh, > > Were do you pick up this info about which stocks are in which position in > their industry? > > Also, when IBD features a business, do they tend to pan out well? > > Thanks, > Ben > 963-2428 home > 945-9183 work > Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design > mailto:bheffer@sopris.net > > ICQ# is 8736058 > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ben Heffer Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? Date: 03 Jul 1999 16:07:03 -0600 At 06:03 PM 7/3/99 -0400, you wrote: >Ben, > >Daily Graphs Online lists the top 5 companies in each stock's industry group >along with all kinds of other stats. I think you could also figure this out with >the industry group book that IBD publishes, but it would be a lot of work. Thanks. Anyone know of any other source that is public? 963-2428 home 945-9183 work Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design mailto:bheffer@sopris.net ICQ# is 8736058 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? Date: 03 Jul 1999 20:40:54 -0400 For Ben mostly, Some years back, IBD featured a single stock on the last inside page, and at the bottom of the page listed the stock they would feature the next day. I ran a test for several months to see if the new interest generated by the next day's "featured" stock was enough to day trade off of. After three months, what I found was that "M" was a greater factor than the exposure from IBD, however sensible buying and selling did allow for a net gain so long as you were buying a thousand shares or so on each stock. Just like the market, IBD has changed dramatically since then, and I suspect that there are far more perceived "feature" stocks today, so would expect the effect to be diluted. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Ben, Daily Graphs Online lists the top 5 companies in each stock's industry group along with all kinds of other stats. I think you could also figure this out with the industry group book that IBD publishes, but it would be a lot of work. I'm not sure how IBD-featured stocks do on average. I have seen a couple of them jump the next day. But it could be coincidental, so I wouldn't draw any conclusions from this. Ben Heffer wrote: > At 04:59 PM 7/3/99 -0400, you wrote: > >How about GPS and AXTI? Both have recently risen to the top of "cups". Both > >look like good CANSLIM stocks to me with the following exceptions: GPS is > >just below the top 5 in its group. AXTI has decelerated (but adequate) > >earnings growth. > > > >Hugh > > > > Hi Hugh, > > Were do you pick up this info about which stocks are in which position in > their industry? > > Also, when IBD features a business, do they tend to pan out well? > > Thanks, > Ben > 963-2428 home > 945-9183 work > Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design > mailto:bheffer@sopris.net > > ICQ# is 8736058 > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? Date: 03 Jul 1999 22:34:26 -0500 Ben, I've found the opposite - but its not very scientific. For the following order, here's what I've found. 1. If I notice (or buy) a CANSLIM stock prior to a feature by IBD, the stocks tend to go up a little after the feature, but then retreat to lower levels than when the feature was run. In fact, for a while, I seriously considered shorting stocks that were written up in a feature by IBD. Decided that was too risky. 2. If IBD runs a second article on a stock (meaning they did so early in its CANSLIM life, and then repeat it), then I've found that in retrospect, the stock has done very well. But, the second article tends to be a peak. Selling comes immediately. Again, this is not very scientific, just an observation on stocks that end up on my watch list. Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net > > Also, when IBD features a business, do they tend to pan > out well? > > Thanks, > Ben > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bruce Feldman" Subject: [CANSLIM] industry rankings and rank within Date: 04 Jul 1999 07:24:34 +0200 Try www.smartmoney.com Bruce Feldman Prague, CR Has anyone found one source for industry ranking and rank within a group on the Net? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ben Heffer Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] industry rankings and rank within Date: 04 Jul 1999 00:14:06 -0600 At 07:24 AM 7/4/99 +0200, you wrote: >Try www.smartmoney.com > >Bruce Feldman >Prague, CR > Hello Bruce, I have searched that site and found industries and sectors but no ratings of individual stocks within a sector or industry. Are you a native of the Czech Republic? Thanks, Ben 963-2428 home 945-9183 work Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design mailto:bheffer@sopris.net ICQ# is 8736058 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] Group A/D Date: 04 Jul 1999 09:31:18 +0100 Dear All, Interesting debate on stock timing and thanks very much to Craig for spending the time on his response to break outs on less than +50% volume in stock with great earnings. One of the things I've found is that I've missed some of the early moves in stock rotation and was trying to find another way of identifying strong group moves. These often occurred before the group relative strengths improved and I was spurred to look for this after the internet stocks still had a group relative strength of 99 despite obviously falling. What I've done now is take the Monday daily graph stock listing database and substitute numerically the A/D ranking for numbers vis a vis A 1, B 2, C 3, D 4, E 5. For each industry, I've averaged all the A/D numbers for each stock to give an industry group value of 1 to 5. I have a spread sheet set up where I tabulate group A/D against weekly date. This enables me to identify group accumulation/distribution earlier than changes in group RS. I presume this is because A/D is calculated over 3 months. A caveat is that the two and half thousand stocks change and I presume are selected in some way so that each week is not necessarily a direct comparison with previous weeks. Nevertheless, I think this could prove helpful. eg Computer memory devices 2.82 2.78 2.76 2.47 2.47 2.31 2.12 Electronic -semiconductor equip 2.10 2.10 2.10 1.70 1.50 1.40 1.27 COMPUTER SOFTWR-ENTERPSE 1.90 1.85 1.83 1.77 1.67 1.64 1.62 Has anyone tried this and what do people think? Marc E Laniado marclaniado@msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Jack Lykins" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? Date: 04 Jul 1999 07:18:00 -0400 Ben, You can also get this information on Yahoo. Access the data from the research feature Below is a link which will give you an example. Jack Lykins http://biz.yahoo.com/research/indgrp/pollution_cntrl.html -----Original Message----- >At 04:59 PM 7/3/99 -0400, you wrote: >>How about GPS and AXTI? Both have recently risen to the top of "cups". Both >>look like good CANSLIM stocks to me with the following exceptions: GPS is >>just below the top 5 in its group. AXTI has decelerated (but adequate) >>earnings growth. >> >>Hugh >> > >Hi Hugh, > >Were do you pick up this info about which stocks are in which position in >their industry? > >Also, when IBD features a business, do they tend to pan out well? > >Thanks, >Ben >963-2428 home >945-9183 work >Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design >mailto:bheffer@sopris.net > >ICQ# is 8736058 > > > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? Date: 04 Jul 1999 07:49:04 -0400 > Date: Sat, 03 Jul 1999 15:03:38 -0400 > From: Craig Griffin > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? > > Tom and Jeffry and Connie, > What if > Connie applied his TA indicators to those two to see if he comes up with > any recommendations on when either stocks signals an entry or exit over the > last couple of months. This was my suggestion, thought it was self-evident from my notes. My notes arrived out of order, I see. Thanks for clarifying, Craig. I like all four stocks, don't own a single one, however. Saw each breakout, but would have missed what I consider a *safe* entry point. Someone with a current and active CANSLIM watchlist could probably provide a more timely issue for "real-time" study. I own no stocks, no longer keep a watchlist. Indeed, I no longer trade CANSLI-, just M. What do you say, Doctor? Do you want me to tell you where the CANSLIM buy points on QCOM, CREE, CUBE and ADTN would have traditionally been? Or do you want some consensus from the group on a more timely issue or two for study? Gotta go feed. Jeffry Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? Date: 04 Jul 1999 09:41:36 -0400 Jack, It looks like this ranking is based upon average analyst recommendation. Although valuable information, it's not the same as the IBD rankings which are based upon the stock's relative strength. Hugh Jack Lykins wrote: > Ben, > > You can also get this information on Yahoo. > Access the data from the research feature > > Below is a link which will give you an example. > > Jack Lykins > > http://biz.yahoo.com/research/indgrp/pollution_cntrl.html > > -----Original Message----- > From: Ben Heffer > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Saturday, July 03, 1999 5:53 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? > > >At 04:59 PM 7/3/99 -0400, you wrote: > >>How about GPS and AXTI? Both have recently risen to the top of "cups". > Both > >>look like good CANSLIM stocks to me with the following exceptions: GPS is > >>just below the top 5 in its group. AXTI has decelerated (but adequate) > >>earnings growth. > >> > >>Hugh > >> > > > >Hi Hugh, > > > >Were do you pick up this info about which stocks are in which position in > >their industry? > > > >Also, when IBD features a business, do they tend to pan out well? > > > >Thanks, > >Ben > >963-2428 home > >945-9183 work > >Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design > >mailto:bheffer@sopris.net > > > >ICQ# is 8736058 > > > > > > > >- > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ben Heffer Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] C.....M - TA? Date: 04 Jul 1999 08:01:12 -0600 At 07:18 AM 7/4/99 -0400, you wrote: >Ben, > >You can also get this information on Yahoo. >Access the data from the research feature > >Below is a link which will give you an example. > >Jack Lykins > >http://biz.yahoo.com/research/indgrp/pollution_cntrl.html Thanks Jack. That's the source I needed. Ben 963-2428 home 945-9183 work Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design mailto:bheffer@sopris.net ICQ# is 8736058 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Annotating bookmarks. [Connie Mack] Date: 04 Jul 1999 10:46:21 -0400 A couple of members have told me that their Bookmarks are becoming unmanageable and indistinguishable. Here is how I keep my Bookmarks orderly. I use Netscape, but you might try the same procedure with Explorer. [1] Put the URL you want in its window. URL is marked "Location." [2] Click "Bookmarks." [3] Click "Add Bookmark." [4] This will add the URL to your Bookmarks. Now click Bookmark again. This should take you to the just-added bookmark. Left click to Select. [5] Right click to bring up menu. At bottom, click "Properties." [6] The new bookmark will appear in the "Name" window. It should still be selected [blue high-lighted]. Click to remove high-light. You can treat the URL now just as if it were a line in a word processor. [7] Make whatever annotations you wish. Exit. Now that bookmark will carry your annotation to distinguish it from all others. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ben Heffer Subject: [CANSLIM] TA guru Date: 04 Jul 1999 08:54:09 -0600 Yesterday, Tom introduced me to how he uses MACD and Bollingers. Could you elucidate for the group how you use the above measures to make buy and sell decisions? They seem of value for a CS investor. Thanks. Ben 963-2428 home 945-9183 work Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design mailto:bheffer@sopris.net ICQ# is 8736058 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TA guru Date: 04 Jul 1999 19:05:55 -0400 Ben-- Do appreciate the "TA Guru" accolade. However, I think that one guru per site is sufficient. I believe that person should be Tom. I still consider myself just an appreciating guest. To your question. Ben, one of the best essays on the MACD is the one you'll find at this site: http://decisionpoint.com/TraderNick/NickTechCIEN.html As for Bollinger bands, I may take a look at them; but they don't figure into any buy or sell decisions. When the "boys" agree on a stock or two that they want me to apply technical indicators to, I'll say a few things about the MACD. You ought to also look at this site. Look under the "Education" button. There are several essays on the MACD and stochastics: http://clearstation.com Connie Ben Heffer wrote: > Yesterday, Tom introduced me to how he uses MACD and Bollingers. Could you > elucidate for the group how you use the above measures to make buy and sell > decisions? They seem of value for a CS investor. > > Thanks. > > Ben > 963-2428 home > 945-9183 work > Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design > mailto:bheffer@sopris.net > > ICQ# is 8736058 > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] A superlative, but not a new site. [Connie Mack] Date: 04 Jul 1999 19:26:10 -0400 Thanks for the comments on BigEasy. It is a good site, but its indicators are fixed. If you want a straightforward and practical site where you can chart and screen with your own numbers, one of the very best is: http://easystock.com Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Copying active URLs. [Connie Mack] Date: 04 Jul 1999 19:59:23 -0400 In response to my URL post, a couple of members have asked how you get those colored [usually blue] active URLs that can immediately be clicked on. Two ways. First: [1] Bring up the URL in the "Location" window. [2] Click on the URL to select it [make it turn blue]. [3] Go to Edit. Click on Copy. [4] Create a blank email. Put cursor where you want the URL to appear. [5] Click Paste under Edit. The URL won't have the blue color on your screen. However, to see if you've done everything right, send the email to yourself. If you've done okay, the URL will appear selected [blue]. You can click on it and bring up the site. Second: If you know the URL, just type this: http://bigcharts. com [or followed by your URL]. This URL will not show it is selected. Send it to yourself to check it out. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TA guru Date: 04 Jul 1999 20:52:10 -0400 Connie, CANSLIM will remain my first choice for picking stocks, and TA strictly used for aiding in my timing of entry, hold and exit. Feel free to wear the TA Guru hat, it's really far more a trader's tool than a CANSLIMers anyway. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Ben-- Do appreciate the "TA Guru" accolade. However, I think that one guru per site is sufficient. I believe that person should be Tom. I still consider myself just an appreciating guest. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Ben Heffer Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TA guru Date: 05 Jul 1999 01:15:42 -0600 A >To your question. Ben, one of the best essays on the MACD is the one you'll >find at this site: > > http://decisionpoint.com/TraderNick/NickTechCIEN.html > >As for Bollinger bands, I may take a look at them; but they don't figure into >any buy or sell decisions. This is a wonderful site, thanks. The man has not forgotten how to speak English and how to communicate. This is a great site for the novice to begin to understand TA. Ben 963-2428 home 945-9183 work Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design mailto:bheffer@sopris.net ICQ# is 8736058 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] Musings Date: 05 Jul 1999 07:15:41 -0400 Once I read a book...."If You Meet the Buddha on the Road, Kill Him", I think it was called. Anybody read it? May have to read it again... Gotta go feed... JWW - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Zoran Mitrovski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Good Book Date: 05 Jul 1999 09:29:50 -0400 Hello everyone, I'd like to recommend book I am reading right now: "Devil Take The Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation" by Edward Chancellor The author studied history at Cambridge and Oxford and also worked as an investment banker at Lazard Brothers. Even though I covered only about 85 pages I already got much more than my money's worth. It is chock-full of bibliographical references, quotes from letters and transcripts, etc, all nicely interwoven into a very readable and enlightening text with minimal subjective interpretation. I'd add this one to the "must read" list of every CANSLIM (or other styled) investor-speculator. Read it; learn; discover similarities; draw analogies; observe the today's society from a wider historical perspective; and accordingly make adjustments to your speculative strategies. Cheers, Zoran mitrovski@att.net - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Good stuff on the S&P500. [Connie Mack] Date: 05 Jul 1999 10:25:05 -0400 For those who like to correlate from index to index and from index to stock prices [not individual stocks], you'll appreciate this sophisticated site: http://www.glen-net.ca/sp500_daytrend/jul2.html The best way to approach the information--because the daily information comes in eight pages--is to print out the entire report. After you've decided what you want from it, go to Edit/Print Preview. There you can see the pagination of the report and can print only pages you want. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Something to break the boredom of days sans the market. [Connie Mack] Date: 05 Jul 1999 11:11:17 -0400 Here is a respite site for those who can't go three days straight without the market: http://members.home.com/wreckedhumor/ Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Carter Diggs Subject: [CANSLIM] Company Industy Rank Date: 05 Jul 1999 12:09:22 -0400 I keep getting surprised at how much the Yahoo site has, or is linked to! Thanks for tipping me off to the industry rank page. Can someone explain how the rankings are arrived at? Is the parameter related to price performance, similar to the one used for the IBD letter ratings? Thanks, Carter - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Earl Setser" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] industry rankings and rank within Date: 05 Jul 1999 13:07:53 -0700 Since you are getting IBD (I believe), there are a couple of features that should help you find industry group data in the paper. I believe IBD uses the sum of EPS rating and Rel Str to get their industry rank, so I don't believe you'll be able to find equivalent data on the Internet. Zacks provides an industry rank, but it's based on Brokerage rankings. It sounds like Yahoo may do the same thing (from other messages). In IBD, Data appears in the paper as follows: Companies in the News - This feature includes an "Industry Group Focus" for the industry group of the featured stock. You can use this to look up any groups that have been featured recently. I am filing the New America and Companies in the News sections to keep this data for a few months or so. You might consider doing the same. Weekend Review - This feature groups the stocks by industry group strength, hence all of the stocks in a group are listed together. This is a good way to review other stocks in a group if your candidate is on the list. You just look at the stocks around it, and make an educated guess (or maybe check Zacks group) to see which others are in the same group and what their ratings are. Panorama, etc - There are other occasional features in IBD that discuss a specific group, i.e. discount retailers were discussed a while back and the ratings were given there. Discussion group - if all else fails, it seems DGO has this data and the guys on this group (Tom and others) seem willing to answer questions about group. At 07:27 PM 7/2/99 -0600, you wrote: >Has anyone found one source for industry ranking and rank within a group on >the Net? > > > >Also, take a look at DY performance. Looks like a flat base with one spike >in the last few days and then settled down to another flat base. When >using CS thinking, is this all one base or a start of a new base? The >fundamentals look pretty darned good. Thoughts? > >Ben >963-2428 home >945-9183 work >Cyber Consultants-Training, Installations, Home Page Design >mailto:bheffer@sopris.net > >ICQ# is 8736058 > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Good stuff on the S&P500. [Connie Mack] Date: 05 Jul 1999 16:28:52 -0700 Thanks Connie interesting site. At this site is referenced: Market breadth based on advance/decline measurements. Three I do not know: Kinsman Index, Haurlan Index and BADI. Does anyone have knowledge of these that would be kind enough to give an overview and give some references? Dan Connie Mack Rea wrote: > For those who like to correlate from index to index and from index to > stock prices [not individual stocks], you'll appreciate this > sophisticated site: > > http://www.glen-net.ca/sp500_daytrend/jul2.html > > The best way to approach the information--because the daily information > comes in eight pages--is to print out the entire report. After you've > decided what you want from it, go to Edit/Print Preview. There you can > see the pagination of the report and can print only pages you want. > > Connie Mack > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Good stuff on the S&P500. [Connie Mack] Date: 05 Jul 1999 20:22:19 -0400 Hi Dan, I just finished checking out this site, lots of good info. There is an explanation page plus historical archive available one level prior to the site Connie mentions. The address is: http://www.glen-net.ca/sp500_daytrend/explan.html and is also the better bookmark to use as the one below is just for July 2. Thanks again to Connie for letting us in on a great site. On that page is a link for an explanation of the various terms used. The first two you ask about are not there, however for BADI is the following: BADI: Breadth Advance/Decline Indicator - developed by Martin Zweig; is calculated by taking the 10-day simple moving average of advancing issues, and dividing this number with the sum of the 10-day simple moving average of advancing and declining issues (BADI=A10/(A10+D10). The data show very bullish tendency at readings above 0.66 and very bearish results with readings below 0.367; the neutral point is 0.500 (Reference #1, p. 102-104) Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Mack] Thanks Connie interesting site. At this site is referenced: Market breadth based on advance/decline measurements. Three I do not know: Kinsman Index, Haurlan Index and BADI. Does anyone have knowledge of these that would be kind enough to give an overview and give some references? Dan Connie Mack Rea wrote: > For those who like to correlate from index to index and from index to > stock prices [not individual stocks], you'll appreciate this > sophisticated site: > > http://www.glen-net.ca/sp500_daytrend/jul2.html > > The best way to approach the information--because the daily information > comes in eight pages--is to print out the entire report. After you've > decided what you want from it, go to Edit/Print Preview. There you can > see the pagination of the report and can print only pages you want. > > Connie Mack > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Foreign markets. [Connie Mack] Date: 05 Jul 1999 20:52:56 -0400 For those who like to browse foreign markets, this is a nice site. There is also stuff on U.S. markets: http://www.globalfindata.com/guide.htm There is much collected here that would require stops at several other sites. ======= Dan and Tom, I think I've got definitions of Haurlan and Kinsman Indexes somewhere. I ran these down when the explanation page had no comment. Will post if I find them. The BADI is on the page that Tom noted. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Haurlan, yes; Kinsman, no. [Connie Mack] Date: 05 Jul 1999 21:30:18 -0400 Dan and Tom-- Can't find Kinsman Index. Haurlan Index This indicator is calculated daily from the plurality of NYSE advances over declines. There are three components of the Haurlan index: Short Term, Long Term and Intermediate Term. 1.Short Term. A 3-day exponential moving average is taken of the net NYSE advances over declines, measuring the short term condition of the market. When this index moves above +100, a market short term buy signal is generated. The signal is in effect until the market drops below -150 at which time a sell signal is generated. The sell signal remains in effect until the index moves above +100 again. 2.Intermediate Term. Same as above but with a 20-day exponential moving average. This index is considered the most important of the three. Market buys and sells are determined in this index by the crossing of trend lines or support/resistance levels depending on the particular market in question. For example, when the market is basing out in preparation for an uptrend, a resistance level may be set up. Once its value is determined, buy and sell signals could be generated for that market. 3.Long Term. Same as above except for a 200-day exponential moving average. Useful for determining trends but not for signals. Connie  - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] StockQuest: More software similar to Itrader and BigEasy. [Connie Mack] Date: 05 Jul 1999 21:43:01 -0400 As I was cleaning out my Program file, I came across StockQuest. I still had the icon, but the program had been deleted. I did at one time download the free program, but remember nothing about it. You can download at this site for a look: http://www.marketguide.com/mgi/STOCKQUEST/sq-about.html Perhaps someone will make an evaluation against Itrader and BigEasy. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Some pre-screened stocks for trader and investor. [Connie Mack] Date: 05 Jul 1999 22:55:23 -0400 I have pulled a few stocks from this site for trading. But there are stocks for growth, value, income, etc. Stocks are pre-screened. The Aggressive Growth button brought up CREE and ITWO. Is not CREE also a CS stock? If so, then here is an instance of a trading stock with CS characteristics. Don't know if ITWO is CS. http://www.smartratings.com/tools/smartgenie/index.shtml#aggr Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Some pre-screened stocks for trader and investor. [Connie Mack] Date: 05 Jul 1999 23:17:27 -0400 Connie, CREE is a classic CANSLIM stock with RS/EPS of 99/99; A/D of A and Timeliness also of A. The problem is the chart, as there is no established base, it's a runaway in an upward channel. And right now, at the upper side of that channel and with a trailing PE of 105, it would seem to be one maybe worth watching, but not a buy right now. If it hits its forecast for fiscal 99 (ending June) of up 85% (which looks likely to me) then the PE drops to 94, still high. For 2000, it drops to 64 on the forecast. ITWO also would be a good CANSLIM candidate for watching, RS/EPS of 95/91, A/D of A and Timeliness of B. Management has a major stake (61%) and once again the chart says to me it's too late for a buy as it has already moved over 10% from a very short base (2 weeks) at the 40 level (now over 45). The more established base is back at the 31-35 level. It also carries a high trailing PE of 125. And the forecast for the current year is only an 11% gain in earnings, so this doesn't drop much on projected PE. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- investor. [Connie Mack] I have pulled a few stocks from this site for trading. But there are stocks for growth, value, income, etc. Stocks are pre-screened. The Aggressive Growth button brought up CREE and ITWO. Is not CREE also a CS stock? If so, then here is an instance of a trading stock with CS characteristics. Don't know if ITWO is CS. http://www.smartratings.com/tools/smartgenie/index.shtml#agg r Connie Mack - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Haurlan, yes; Kinsman, no. [Connie Mack] Date: 05 Jul 1999 21:24:41 -0700 Thank you Connie and Tom for the explaination. Dan Connie Mack Rea wrote: > Dan and Tom-- > > Can't find Kinsman Index. > > Haurlan Index > > This indicator is calculated daily from the plurality of NYSE > advances over declines. There are three components of the > Haurlan index: Short Term, Long Term and Intermediate Term. > > 1.Short Term. A 3-day exponential moving average is taken > of the net NYSE advances over declines, measuring the > short term condition of the market. When this index moves > above +100, a market short term buy signal is generated. > The signal is in effect until the market drops below -150 at > which time a sell signal is generated. The sell signal remains > in effect until the index moves above +100 again. > 2.Intermediate Term. Same as above but with a 20-day > exponential moving average. This index is considered the > most important of the three. Market buys and sells are > determined in this index by the crossing of trend lines or > support/resistance levels depending on the particular market > in question. For example, when the market is basing out in > preparation for an uptrend, a resistance level may be set up. > Once its value is determined, buy and sell signals could be > generated for that market. > 3.Long Term. Same as above except for a 200-day > exponential moving average. Useful for determining trends > but not for signals. > > Connie > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Squires Subject: [CANSLIM] Watch List Date: 06 Jul 1999 08:57:26 -0500 Hi all, These stocks all look interesting to me. Some are CS some are pure momentum. Do your homework. GLW...huge fiber optic deal....breakaway gap. EXTR....Internet infrastructure play....buy point 59 1/8 HLIT...MOMO play...consolidating. IMNX... IFCI....Internet infrastructure play.....huge base NTAP.... coming through 60 on volume STRM....latin YHOO...needs a handle but likely won't get it. VRIO....networking play ANF.... nice base....strong consumer. PRSF...nice base NXLK CMGI ALLR...Great product....long base but still needs work. EMC....The storage behemoth....coming through 60 on volume FLEX...nice base RMBS... next generation DRAM product...coming through 100 on volume FDX....steath internet play....good earnings...nice base.. 57 1/8 on volume CNCX... networking play. MUSE.... great product.....great base. NITE KLAC... looking for a base retest. FDS RFMD... looking for a base retest TYC WCOM AWRE...bootomfishing ERTS....Missed it! CTIX CYMI GSPN NVLS...semiconductor play with great base. ETEK... fiber optics....needs a handle...no safe buy point right now JNPR...Internet infrastruture....next generation routers...this is a hot stock. TSFW TERN...very hot....cable modems that work on noisy cable lines. Fundamentals here are very strong..chart is nice. CMTN...DSL play...needs a handle. happy hunting, DSquires - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: [CANSLIM] AMEX Stocks e.g. MSS Date: 06 Jul 1999 20:34:01 -0400 I am following MSS which has risen to the top of a 5-week base. The stock looks good from a CANSLIM perspective. It trades on AMEX. I have seen at least one posting (I think from Tom Worley) which counted that as a negative. Are AMEX stocks less desirable than NYSE or NASDAQ? If so, how come? I have done pretty well recently with HH which is also an AMEX stock, but it seems to be consolidating again now. Hugh - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] Date: 06 Jul 1999 21:15:18 -0400 Today was a good day to measure a couple of things: [1] how to enter a stock; how to exit and [2] how to see a daily reversal coming in an index. I traded DELL and MU today. DELL as a wash, but MU was an instance of a couple of very good buy signals given by technical indicators. I'll use BigCharts so everyone can pretty much see what I saw. My actual trading was done from a real time 1- and 5-minute chart from other software. Other than the access to real time numbers, BC is an excellent trading tool. Pull up a 1-month chart with a 3/7/10 EMA and an MACD in the bottom panel. What I had been watching was the result of the price breakdown on the 23rd and 24th of June. Especially, I was watching the developing of the distance between the 3 and 7 EMA. When the distance between the 3 and 7 EMA began to double the distance between the 7 and 10 EMA, the implication is that change of character is in close prospect. When the Doubling Principle occurs in a declining stock, the presumption is for a bounce, or at least a flattening out. Remember, I'm talking about short term. When the Doubling Principle occurs in a rising stock, the presumption is for a falling away, or at least a flattening out. There is a bit more than a doubling taking place by the 28th and 29th. On July 1st the 3/7/10 gave a First and Second Level buy. The MACD had confirmed the price breakdown of the 23rd and 24th. Though it did not give a buy when the EMA did, notice that the black verticals are shortening and give a buy early this morning. The MACD [12-26-9] in BC lags the 3/7/10 EMA. However, I use several other settings: 8-17-9 and 4-18-8. I use several stochastics: 5/10/15, 12/3/6, 12/6/8, 5/5/3, and 5/3/3. The ones bouncing off the bottom confirmed the 3/7/10 and the MACD. The 12/6/8 went buy today. I have two resistance lines drawn in: 43.25 and 47.5. The first was erased in the first few minutes, and the second was untouched. The 3/7/10 approached a near Double about 10:15; beware. The MACD confirmed the danger. Time to let loose one half of my position, just in case. Greed is a nasty master. The 3/7/10 buy about 11:15 was unconfirmed by the MACD. Stay out. From about 10:45, the MACD implied and then confirmed weakness. The implication continued through to the close. The 3/7/10 EMA was of no use until the last hour when it went clearly sell. Notice that the stock did rise after the EMA and MACD turned sell. But, notice especially, the MACD never wavered in its decline. This is a good instance of a negative divergence that contrasted with price. The MACD did not lie. I let the other half of my position go about 3:15. Take a look at the INDU and the NASDAQ. Look for the Doubling Principle and watch the MACD. What more accurate indicators could you ask for--and the price is right. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AMEX Stocks e.g. MSS Date: 06 Jul 1999 18:54:10 -0700 HH is an incredibly well-behaved AMEX stock. It is my only recent CANSLIM buy which hasn't broken any selling rules. Even so look at the one-day panic when it split on 2/1/99. AMEX stocks are famous for irrational behavior. At 08:34 PM 7/6/99 -0400, you wrote: >I am following MSS which has risen to the top of a 5-week base. >The stock looks good from a CANSLIM perspective. It trades on >AMEX. I have seen at least one posting (I think from Tom Worley) >which counted that as a negative. Are AMEX stocks less desirable >than NYSE or NASDAQ? If so, how come? > >I have done pretty well recently with HH which is also an AMEX >stock, but it seems to be consolidating again now. > >Hugh Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] Date: 06 Jul 1999 22:14:46 -0400 Connie, How do you get the 3/7/10 on BigCharts? In the past I thought you could put 3 7 10 in for the period on the EMA 3-line field. Now I just get 3,6, and 9. Hugh Connie Mack Rea wrote: > Today was a good day to measure a couple of things: [1] how to enter a > stock; how to exit and [2] how to see a daily reversal coming in an > index. > > I traded DELL and MU today. DELL as a wash, but MU was an instance of a > couple of very good buy signals given by technical indicators. I'll use > BigCharts so everyone can pretty much see what I saw. My actual trading > was done from a real time 1- and 5-minute chart from other software. > Other than the access to real time numbers, BC is an excellent trading > tool. > > Pull up a 1-month chart with a 3/7/10 EMA and an MACD in the bottom > panel. > What I had been watching was the result of the price breakdown on the > 23rd and 24th of June. Especially, I was watching the developing of the > distance between the 3 and 7 EMA. When the distance between the 3 and 7 > EMA began to double the distance between the 7 and 10 EMA, the > implication is that change of character is in close prospect. > > When the Doubling Principle occurs in a declining stock, the presumption > is for a bounce, or at least a flattening out. Remember, I'm talking > about short term. When the Doubling Principle occurs in a rising stock, > the presumption is for a falling away, or at least a flattening out. > There is a bit more than a doubling taking place by the 28th and 29th. > > On July 1st the 3/7/10 gave a First and Second Level buy. The MACD had > confirmed the price breakdown of the 23rd and 24th. Though it did not > give a buy when the EMA did, notice that the black verticals are > shortening and give a buy early this morning. The MACD [12-26-9] in BC > lags the 3/7/10 EMA. However, I use several other settings: 8-17-9 and > 4-18-8. > > I use several stochastics: 5/10/15, 12/3/6, 12/6/8, 5/5/3, and 5/3/3. > The ones bouncing off the bottom confirmed the 3/7/10 and the MACD. > The 12/6/8 went buy today. > > I have two resistance lines drawn in: 43.25 and 47.5. The first was > erased in the first few minutes, and the second was untouched. > > The 3/7/10 approached a near Double about 10:15; beware. The MACD > confirmed the danger. Time to let loose one half of my position, just > in case. Greed is a nasty master. > > The 3/7/10 buy about 11:15 was unconfirmed by the MACD. Stay out. > > >From about 10:45, the MACD implied and then confirmed weakness. The > implication continued through to the close. The 3/7/10 EMA was of no > use until the last hour when it went clearly sell. > > Notice that the stock did rise after the EMA and MACD turned sell. But, > notice especially, the MACD never wavered in its decline. This is a > good instance of a negative divergence that contrasted with price. The > MACD did not lie. I let the other half of my position go about 3:15. > > Take a look at the INDU and the NASDAQ. Look for the Doubling Principle > and watch the MACD. What more accurate indicators could you ask > for--and the price is right. > > Connie Mack > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Surindra Singh" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] Date: 06 Jul 1999 22:19:47 -0400 Connie: MU has poor canslim characters, poor RS, EPS rank, zip P/E ratio and is off about 45% of peak. DELL has good EPS rank (99), but has rather poor RS due to recent performance of the stock price and is not a buy from canslim stand point. Both may be good trading stocks. One great site I found for ongoing trades, buy/ask prices is: http://www.isld.com/itchclient/javaversion.htm and it is free. I will like to know your comments about this for trading. Regards Surindra Both may be good ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, July 06, 1999 9:15 PM > Today was a good day to measure a couple of things: [1] how to enter a > stock; how to exit and [2] how to see a daily reversal coming in an > index. > > I traded DELL and MU today. DELL as a wash, but MU was an instance of a > couple of very good buy signals given by technical indicators. I'll use > BigCharts so everyone can pretty much see what I saw. My actual trading > was done from a real time 1- and 5-minute chart from other software. > Other than the access to real time numbers, BC is an excellent trading > tool. > > Pull up a 1-month chart with a 3/7/10 EMA and an MACD in the bottom > panel. > What I had been watching was the result of the price breakdown on the > 23rd and 24th of June. Especially, I was watching the developing of the > distance between the 3 and 7 EMA. When the distance between the 3 and 7 > EMA began to double the distance between the 7 and 10 EMA, the > implication is that change of character is in close prospect. > > When the Doubling Principle occurs in a declining stock, the presumption > is for a bounce, or at least a flattening out. Remember, I'm talking > about short term. When the Doubling Principle occurs in a rising stock, > the presumption is for a falling away, or at least a flattening out. > There is a bit more than a doubling taking place by the 28th and 29th. > > On July 1st the 3/7/10 gave a First and Second Level buy. The MACD had > confirmed the price breakdown of the 23rd and 24th. Though it did not > give a buy when the EMA did, notice that the black verticals are > shortening and give a buy early this morning. The MACD [12-26-9] in BC > lags the 3/7/10 EMA. However, I use several other settings: 8-17-9 and > 4-18-8. > > I use several stochastics: 5/10/15, 12/3/6, 12/6/8, 5/5/3, and 5/3/3. > The ones bouncing off the bottom confirmed the 3/7/10 and the MACD. > The 12/6/8 went buy today. > > I have two resistance lines drawn in: 43.25 and 47.5. The first was > erased in the first few minutes, and the second was untouched. > > The 3/7/10 approached a near Double about 10:15; beware. The MACD > confirmed the danger. Time to let loose one half of my position, just > in case. Greed is a nasty master. > > The 3/7/10 buy about 11:15 was unconfirmed by the MACD. Stay out. > > From about 10:45, the MACD implied and then confirmed weakness. The > implication continued through to the close. The 3/7/10 EMA was of no > use until the last hour when it went clearly sell. > > Notice that the stock did rise after the EMA and MACD turned sell. But, > notice especially, the MACD never wavered in its decline. This is a > good instance of a negative divergence that contrasted with price. The > MACD did not lie. I let the other half of my position go about 3:15. > > Take a look at the INDU and the NASDAQ. Look for the Doubling Principle > and watch the MACD. What more accurate indicators could you ask > for--and the price is right. > > Connie Mack > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AMEX Stocks e.g. MSS Date: 06 Jul 1999 22:24:10 -0400 Tim, HH seems now to be in a trading range between 20 and 22. I was a little disturbed that it fell below 20 today. It looked like it had established solid support there 6/22 and 6/23. I was close to putting in a stop order at 19 7/8 yesterday but held off. Fortunately this breach was only for a brief time near the open and we got a 7/16 rise. What selling rules are you using? Hugh Tim Fisher wrote: > HH is an incredibly well-behaved AMEX stock. It is my only recent CANSLIM > buy which hasn't broken any selling rules. Even so look at the one-day > panic when it split on 2/1/99. AMEX stocks are famous for irrational behavior. > > At 08:34 PM 7/6/99 -0400, you wrote: > >I am following MSS which has risen to the top of a 5-week base. > >The stock looks good from a CANSLIM perspective. It trades on > >AMEX. I have seen at least one posting (I think from Tom Worley) > >which counted that as a negative. Are AMEX stocks less desirable > >than NYSE or NASDAQ? If so, how come? > > > >I have done pretty well recently with HH which is also an AMEX > >stock, but it seems to be consolidating again now. > > > >Hugh > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > PFB Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AMEX Stocks e.g. MSS Date: 06 Jul 1999 22:31:04 -0400 Hi Hugh, There are several reasons why the AMEX is perceived as a poor place for stocks to trade. First, they have attempted to remain in existence by lowering their listing standards, at one time they were accepting stocks that Nasdaq was delisting. A second reason is liquidity. With 12 to maybe 20 mil shares in total trading on the exchange, a single Naz stock can trade more shares. Thus institutional interest is diminished. A third reason is simply the consequence of perception. Because of the low perception of AMEX stocks, analysts are less likely to review and rate their stocks. Finally, the lack of liquidity can also lead to larger spreads. I don't ignore completely an AMEX stock. However, the negatives of trading there means the CANSLIM qualities, and the chart, must be that much better for it to overcome the inherent liability. It's not fair to the decent stock that happens to be trading there, but it's reality, much like the obstacles a woman in the business world must overcome just to be treated as an equal, and evaluated on true performance. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I am following MSS which has risen to the top of a 5-week base. The stock looks good from a CANSLIM perspective. It trades on AMEX. I have seen at least one posting (I think from Tom Worley) which counted that as a negative. Are AMEX stocks less desirable than NYSE or NASDAQ? If so, how come? I have done pretty well recently with HH which is also an AMEX stock, but it seems to be consolidating again now. Hugh - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Surindra Singh" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Watch List Date: 06 Jul 1999 22:37:34 -0400 Dave: Interesting stocks on your watch list. I share some of these on my watch list too. Your list however needs some dieting and trimming. Too many for Tom to make any comments....... Regards Surindra ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, July 06, 1999 9:57 AM > Hi all, > > These stocks all look interesting to me. Some are CS some are pure > momentum. Do your homework. > > GLW...huge fiber optic deal....breakaway gap. > EXTR....Internet infrastructure play....buy point 59 1/8 > HLIT...MOMO play...consolidating. > IMNX... > IFCI....Internet infrastructure play.....huge base > NTAP.... coming through 60 on volume > STRM....latin YHOO...needs a handle but likely won't get it. > VRIO....networking play > ANF.... nice base....strong consumer. > PRSF...nice base > NXLK > CMGI > ALLR...Great product....long base but still needs work. > EMC....The storage behemoth....coming through 60 on volume > FLEX...nice base > RMBS... next generation DRAM product...coming through 100 on volume > FDX....steath internet play....good earnings...nice base.. 57 1/8 on > volume > CNCX... networking play. > MUSE.... great product.....great base. > NITE > KLAC... looking for a base retest. > FDS > RFMD... looking for a base retest > TYC > WCOM > AWRE...bootomfishing > ERTS....Missed it! > CTIX > CYMI > GSPN > NVLS...semiconductor play with great base. > ETEK... fiber optics....needs a handle...no safe buy point right now > JNPR...Internet infrastruture....next generation routers...this is a hot > stock. > TSFW > TERN...very hot....cable modems that work on noisy cable lines. > Fundamentals here are very strong..chart is nice. > CMTN...DSL play...needs a handle. > > happy hunting, > DSquires > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AMEX Stocks e.g. MSS Date: 06 Jul 1999 21:51:07 -0700 Initial stop at support, hopefully no more than 15% (if it's more then I am chasing it). Never let a 20% gain turn into a loss, so once up 20%, stop at buy + commissions. Once I'm up more than that, I'll sell at a sign of weakness, like a gap down. It's got support at 20-ish, but I never look at intraday prices, I get burned too much that way. I'm up 40% on HH so I'm letting it ride for now. At 10:24 PM 7/6/99 -0400, you wrote: >Tim, > >HH seems now to be in a trading range between 20 and 22. I was a little >disturbed >that it fell below 20 today. It looked like it had established solid >support there >6/22 and 6/23. I was close to putting in a stop order at 19 7/8 yesterday >but held >off. Fortunately this breach was only for a brief time near the open and >we got a >7/16 rise. > >What selling rules are you using? > >Hugh > >Tim Fisher wrote: > > > HH is an incredibly well-behaved AMEX stock. It is my only recent CANSLIM > > buy which hasn't broken any selling rules. Even so look at the one-day > > panic when it split on 2/1/99. AMEX stocks are famous for irrational > behavior. > > > > At 08:34 PM 7/6/99 -0400, you wrote: > > >I am following MSS which has risen to the top of a 5-week base. > > >The stock looks good from a CANSLIM perspective. It trades on > > >AMEX. I have seen at least one posting (I think from Tom Worley) > > >which counted that as a negative. Are AMEX stocks less desirable > > >than NYSE or NASDAQ? If so, how come? > > > > > >I have done pretty well recently with HH which is also an AMEX > > >stock, but it seems to be consolidating again now. > > > > > >Hugh > > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > > PFB Information > > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > > - > > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] merq Date: 06 Jul 1999 23:07:39 -0800 Mercury Interactive (MERQ) looks like a buy here. The EPS number may seem a bit low, but anyone who saw what Adobe did with a 75 EPS number should know that sometimes you have to bend that EPS > 80 rule at times. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] merq Date: 07 Jul 1999 06:35:27 -0400 Patrick, I wouldn't be too concerned about the RS 75 issue, the primary reason the RS is not higher is that in the first of the past five years (1994) they earned 19 cents. However, the following year they lost 19 cents. So the five year part of the RS equation is from 19 cents profit to last year's 56 cents. They are currently forecast to earn 69 cents this year (up 23%) so by the time the year ends, the five year performance will be from a loss of 19 cents to a profit of 69 cents (assuming they make the forecast), a much more substantial five year performance. Right now they appear on track to meet or exceed that forecast (trailing 12 months they did 61 cents). Note however that management only owns 7%, while funds own 27% of the float of 34.5 mil shares. Also ROE is only showing at 17%, altho this is affected similar to the RS. Otherwise it looks worth watching. Earnings are due 7/23. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Mercury Interactive (MERQ) looks like a buy here. The EPS number may seem a bit low, but anyone who saw what Adobe did with a 75 EPS number should know that sometimes you have to bend that EPS > 80 rule at times. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] Date: 07 Jul 1999 08:09:45 -0400 Morning Hugh-- Don't know what the problem might be. I took out all the numbers in the 3-line EMA and put in 3/7/10. Was okay here. You wouldn't have by chance at sometime used 3/6/9 and then set them as your default? Even so, 3/6/9 is certainly workable, as is 3/7/11--which one member wondered. Connie Hugh Fader wrote: > Connie, > > How do you get the 3/7/10 on BigCharts? In the past I thought you could put > 3 7 10 in for the period on the EMA 3-line field. Now I just get 3,6, and 9. > > Hugh > > Connie Mack Rea wrote: > > > Today was a good day to measure a couple of things: [1] how to enter a > > stock; how to exit and [2] how to see a daily reversal coming in an > > index. > > > > I traded DELL and MU today. DELL as a wash, but MU was an instance of a > > couple of very good buy signals given by technical indicators. I'll use > > BigCharts so everyone can pretty much see what I saw. My actual trading > > was done from a real time 1- and 5-minute chart from other software. > > Other than the access to real time numbers, BC is an excellent trading > > tool. > > > > Pull up a 1-month chart with a 3/7/10 EMA and an MACD in the bottom > > panel. > > What I had been watching was the result of the price breakdown on the > > 23rd and 24th of June. Especially, I was watching the developing of the > > distance between the 3 and 7 EMA. When the distance between the 3 and 7 > > EMA began to double the distance between the 7 and 10 EMA, the > > implication is that change of character is in close prospect. > > > > When the Doubling Principle occurs in a declining stock, the presumption > > is for a bounce, or at least a flattening out. Remember, I'm talking > > about short term. When the Doubling Principle occurs in a rising stock, > > the presumption is for a falling away, or at least a flattening out. > > There is a bit more than a doubling taking place by the 28th and 29th. > > > > On July 1st the 3/7/10 gave a First and Second Level buy. The MACD had > > confirmed the price breakdown of the 23rd and 24th. Though it did not > > give a buy when the EMA did, notice that the black verticals are > > shortening and give a buy early this morning. The MACD [12-26-9] in BC > > lags the 3/7/10 EMA. However, I use several other settings: 8-17-9 and > > 4-18-8. > > > > I use several stochastics: 5/10/15, 12/3/6, 12/6/8, 5/5/3, and 5/3/3. > > The ones bouncing off the bottom confirmed the 3/7/10 and the MACD. > > The 12/6/8 went buy today. > > > > I have two resistance lines drawn in: 43.25 and 47.5. The first was > > erased in the first few minutes, and the second was untouched. > > > > The 3/7/10 approached a near Double about 10:15; beware. The MACD > > confirmed the danger. Time to let loose one half of my position, just > > in case. Greed is a nasty master. > > > > The 3/7/10 buy about 11:15 was unconfirmed by the MACD. Stay out. > > > > >From about 10:45, the MACD implied and then confirmed weakness. The > > implication continued through to the close. The 3/7/10 EMA was of no > > use until the last hour when it went clearly sell. > > > > Notice that the stock did rise after the EMA and MACD turned sell. But, > > notice especially, the MACD never wavered in its decline. This is a > > good instance of a negative divergence that contrasted with price. The > > MACD did not lie. I let the other half of my position go about 3:15. > > > > Take a look at the INDU and the NASDAQ. Look for the Doubling Principle > > and watch the MACD. What more accurate indicators could you ask > > for--and the price is right. > > > > Connie Mack > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] Date: 07 Jul 1999 08:16:24 -0400 Morning Surindra-- I'll take a look at your site when I get set up this morning. Connie Surindra Singh wrote: > Connie: > > MU has poor canslim characters, poor RS, EPS rank, zip P/E ratio and is off > about 45% of peak. > > DELL has good EPS rank (99), but has rather poor RS due to recent > performance of the stock price and is not a buy from canslim stand point. > > Both may be good trading stocks. One great site I found for ongoing trades, > buy/ask prices is: > > http://www.isld.com/itchclient/javaversion.htm > > and it is free. I will like to know your comments about this for trading. > > Regards > > Surindra > > Both may be good > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Connie Mack Rea > To: canslim > Sent: Tuesday, July 06, 1999 9:15 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] > > > Today was a good day to measure a couple of things: [1] how to enter a > > stock; how to exit and [2] how to see a daily reversal coming in an > > index. > > > > I traded DELL and MU today. DELL as a wash, but MU was an instance of a > > couple of very good buy signals given by technical indicators. I'll use > > BigCharts so everyone can pretty much see what I saw. My actual trading > > was done from a real time 1- and 5-minute chart from other software. > > Other than the access to real time numbers, BC is an excellent trading > > tool. > > > > Pull up a 1-month chart with a 3/7/10 EMA and an MACD in the bottom > > panel. > > What I had been watching was the result of the price breakdown on the > > 23rd and 24th of June. Especially, I was watching the developing of the > > distance between the 3 and 7 EMA. When the distance between the 3 and 7 > > EMA began to double the distance between the 7 and 10 EMA, the > > implication is that change of character is in close prospect. > > > > When the Doubling Principle occurs in a declining stock, the presumption > > is for a bounce, or at least a flattening out. Remember, I'm talking > > about short term. When the Doubling Principle occurs in a rising stock, > > the presumption is for a falling away, or at least a flattening out. > > There is a bit more than a doubling taking place by the 28th and 29th. > > > > On July 1st the 3/7/10 gave a First and Second Level buy. The MACD had > > confirmed the price breakdown of the 23rd and 24th. Though it did not > > give a buy when the EMA did, notice that the black verticals are > > shortening and give a buy early this morning. The MACD [12-26-9] in BC > > lags the 3/7/10 EMA. However, I use several other settings: 8-17-9 and > > 4-18-8. > > > > I use several stochastics: 5/10/15, 12/3/6, 12/6/8, 5/5/3, and 5/3/3. > > The ones bouncing off the bottom confirmed the 3/7/10 and the MACD. > > The 12/6/8 went buy today. > > > > I have two resistance lines drawn in: 43.25 and 47.5. The first was > > erased in the first few minutes, and the second was untouched. > > > > The 3/7/10 approached a near Double about 10:15; beware. The MACD > > confirmed the danger. Time to let loose one half of my position, just > > in case. Greed is a nasty master. > > > > The 3/7/10 buy about 11:15 was unconfirmed by the MACD. Stay out. > > > > From about 10:45, the MACD implied and then confirmed weakness. The > > implication continued through to the close. The 3/7/10 EMA was of no > > use until the last hour when it went clearly sell. > > > > Notice that the stock did rise after the EMA and MACD turned sell. But, > > notice especially, the MACD never wavered in its decline. This is a > > good instance of a negative divergence that contrasted with price. The > > MACD did not lie. I let the other half of my position go about 3:15. > > > > Take a look at the INDU and the NASDAQ. Look for the Doubling Principle > > and watch the MACD. What more accurate indicators could you ask > > for--and the price is right. > > > > Connie Mack > > > > > > - > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] Date: 07 Jul 1999 11:28:30 -0400 Surindra-- This is the only site I've seen with some Level II information. How accurate or how much you're getting, I don't know because I don't have access to Level II. This would be useful if you were trading only one or two stocks. The constant switching of screens among for or five would get taxing. The site would be most useful for stocks with "relatively" low volume. When I trade DELL, I can usually buy at the bid because there are millions of shares turning over, and the spread is a 1/16th. Too, there are sales at 32nds and 64ths if you like thin slices. Nice little site, Surindra. Thank you. Connie Surindra Singh wrote: > Connie: > > MU has poor canslim characters, poor RS, EPS rank, zip P/E ratio and is off > about 45% of peak. > > DELL has good EPS rank (99), but has rather poor RS due to recent > performance of the stock price and is not a buy from canslim stand point. > > Both may be good trading stocks. One great site I found for ongoing trades, > buy/ask prices is: > > http://www.isld.com/itchclient/javaversion.htm > > and it is free. I will like to know your comments about this for trading. > > Regards > > Surindra > > Both may be good > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Connie Mack Rea > To: canslim > Sent: Tuesday, July 06, 1999 9:15 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] > > > Today was a good day to measure a couple of things: [1] how to enter a > > stock; how to exit and [2] how to see a daily reversal coming in an > > index. > > > > I traded DELL and MU today. DELL as a wash, but MU was an instance of a > > couple of very good buy signals given by technical indicators. I'll use > > BigCharts so everyone can pretty much see what I saw. My actual trading > > was done from a real time 1- and 5-minute chart from other software. > > Other than the access to real time numbers, BC is an excellent trading > > tool. > > > > Pull up a 1-month chart with a 3/7/10 EMA and an MACD in the bottom > > panel. > > What I had been watching was the result of the price breakdown on the > > 23rd and 24th of June. Especially, I was watching the developing of the > > distance between the 3 and 7 EMA. When the distance between the 3 and 7 > > EMA began to double the distance between the 7 and 10 EMA, the > > implication is that change of character is in close prospect. > > > > When the Doubling Principle occurs in a declining stock, the presumption > > is for a bounce, or at least a flattening out. Remember, I'm talking > > about short term. When the Doubling Principle occurs in a rising stock, > > the presumption is for a falling away, or at least a flattening out. > > There is a bit more than a doubling taking place by the 28th and 29th. > > > > On July 1st the 3/7/10 gave a First and Second Level buy. The MACD had > > confirmed the price breakdown of the 23rd and 24th. Though it did not > > give a buy when the EMA did, notice that the black verticals are > > shortening and give a buy early this morning. The MACD [12-26-9] in BC > > lags the 3/7/10 EMA. However, I use several other settings: 8-17-9 and > > 4-18-8. > > > > I use several stochastics: 5/10/15, 12/3/6, 12/6/8, 5/5/3, and 5/3/3. > > The ones bouncing off the bottom confirmed the 3/7/10 and the MACD. > > The 12/6/8 went buy today. > > > > I have two resistance lines drawn in: 43.25 and 47.5. The first was > > erased in the first few minutes, and the second was untouched. > > > > The 3/7/10 approached a near Double about 10:15; beware. The MACD > > confirmed the danger. Time to let loose one half of my position, just > > in case. Greed is a nasty master. > > > > The 3/7/10 buy about 11:15 was unconfirmed by the MACD. Stay out. > > > > From about 10:45, the MACD implied and then confirmed weakness. The > > implication continued through to the close. The 3/7/10 EMA was of no > > use until the last hour when it went clearly sell. > > > > Notice that the stock did rise after the EMA and MACD turned sell. But, > > notice especially, the MACD never wavered in its decline. This is a > > good instance of a negative divergence that contrasted with price. The > > MACD did not lie. I let the other half of my position go about 3:15. > > > > Take a look at the INDU and the NASDAQ. Look for the Doubling Principle > > and watch the MACD. What more accurate indicators could you ask > > for--and the price is right. > > > > Connie Mack > > > > > > - > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] Date: 07 Jul 1999 11:59:26 -0400 Surindra-- I ran a check on the Island site. I put in a large sell order on a stock with very little volume. My sell has yet to appear--20 minutes later. Connie Surindra Singh wrote: > Connie: > > MU has poor canslim characters, poor RS, EPS rank, zip P/E ratio and is off > about 45% of peak. > > DELL has good EPS rank (99), but has rather poor RS due to recent > performance of the stock price and is not a buy from canslim stand point. > > Both may be good trading stocks. One great site I found for ongoing trades, > buy/ask prices is: > > http://www.isld.com/itchclient/javaversion.htm > > and it is free. I will like to know your comments about this for trading. > > Regards > > Surindra > > Both may be good > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Connie Mack Rea > To: canslim > Sent: Tuesday, July 06, 1999 9:15 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] > > > Today was a good day to measure a couple of things: [1] how to enter a > > stock; how to exit and [2] how to see a daily reversal coming in an > > index. > > > > I traded DELL and MU today. DELL as a wash, but MU was an instance of a > > couple of very good buy signals given by technical indicators. I'll use > > BigCharts so everyone can pretty much see what I saw. My actual trading > > was done from a real time 1- and 5-minute chart from other software. > > Other than the access to real time numbers, BC is an excellent trading > > tool. > > > > Pull up a 1-month chart with a 3/7/10 EMA and an MACD in the bottom > > panel. > > What I had been watching was the result of the price breakdown on the > > 23rd and 24th of June. Especially, I was watching the developing of the > > distance between the 3 and 7 EMA. When the distance between the 3 and 7 > > EMA began to double the distance between the 7 and 10 EMA, the > > implication is that change of character is in close prospect. > > > > When the Doubling Principle occurs in a declining stock, the presumption > > is for a bounce, or at least a flattening out. Remember, I'm talking > > about short term. When the Doubling Principle occurs in a rising stock, > > the presumption is for a falling away, or at least a flattening out. > > There is a bit more than a doubling taking place by the 28th and 29th. > > > > On July 1st the 3/7/10 gave a First and Second Level buy. The MACD had > > confirmed the price breakdown of the 23rd and 24th. Though it did not > > give a buy when the EMA did, notice that the black verticals are > > shortening and give a buy early this morning. The MACD [12-26-9] in BC > > lags the 3/7/10 EMA. However, I use several other settings: 8-17-9 and > > 4-18-8. > > > > I use several stochastics: 5/10/15, 12/3/6, 12/6/8, 5/5/3, and 5/3/3. > > The ones bouncing off the bottom confirmed the 3/7/10 and the MACD. > > The 12/6/8 went buy today. > > > > I have two resistance lines drawn in: 43.25 and 47.5. The first was > > erased in the first few minutes, and the second was untouched. > > > > The 3/7/10 approached a near Double about 10:15; beware. The MACD > > confirmed the danger. Time to let loose one half of my position, just > > in case. Greed is a nasty master. > > > > The 3/7/10 buy about 11:15 was unconfirmed by the MACD. Stay out. > > > > From about 10:45, the MACD implied and then confirmed weakness. The > > implication continued through to the close. The 3/7/10 EMA was of no > > use until the last hour when it went clearly sell. > > > > Notice that the stock did rise after the EMA and MACD turned sell. But, > > notice especially, the MACD never wavered in its decline. This is a > > good instance of a negative divergence that contrasted with price. The > > MACD did not lie. I let the other half of my position go about 3:15. > > > > Take a look at the INDU and the NASDAQ. Look for the Doubling Principle > > and watch the MACD. What more accurate indicators could you ask > > for--and the price is right. > > > > Connie Mack > > > > > > - > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] Date: 07 Jul 1999 11:52:49 -0500 (CDT) Your broker MUST have a connection to Island for the order to appear. All (well almost all) Datek orders for NASDAQ stocks are routed to Island. As a Datek customer, I can say that when I push the button to send the order in (after typing in my password) Island shows the order BEFORE Datek replies with the confirmation number. This system has been of benefit in that I have fairly frequently sold at the ask and at the high of the day. and bought at the bid and at the low of the day. Robert On Wed, 07 Jul 1999 11:59:26 -0400, Connie Mack Rea wrote: >Surindra-- > >I ran a check on the Island site. I put in a large sell order on a stock with >very little volume. My sell has yet to appear--20 minutes later. > >Connie > > > > > > >Surindra Singh wrote: > >> Connie: >> >> MU has poor canslim characters, poor RS, EPS rank, zip P/E ratio and is off >> about 45% of peak. >> >> DELL has good EPS rank (99), but has rather poor RS due to recent >> performance of the stock price and is not a buy from canslim stand point. >> >> Both may be good trading stocks. One great site I found for ongoing trades, >> buy/ask prices is: >> >> http://www.isld.com/itchclient/javaversion.htm >> >> and it is free. I will like to know your comments about this for trading. >> >> Regards >> >> Surindra >> >> Both may be good >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Connie Mack Rea >> To: canslim >> Sent: Tuesday, July 06, 1999 9:15 PM >> Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] >> >> > Today was a good day to measure a couple of things: [1] how to enter a >> > stock; how to exit and [2] how to see a daily reversal coming in an >> > index. >> > >> > I traded DELL and MU today. DELL as a wash, but MU was an instance of a >> > couple of very good buy signals given by technical indicators. I'll use >> > BigCharts so everyone can pretty much see what I saw. My actual trading >> > was done from a real time 1- and 5-minute chart from other software. >> > Other than the access to real time numbers, BC is an excellent trading >> > tool. >> > >> > Pull up a 1-month chart with a 3/7/10 EMA and an MACD in the bottom >> > panel. >> > What I had been watching was the result of the price breakdown on the >> > 23rd and 24th of June. Especially, I was watching the developing of the >> > distance between the 3 and 7 EMA. When the distance between the 3 and 7 >> > EMA began to double the distance between the 7 and 10 EMA, the >> > implication is that change of character is in close prospect. >> > >> > When the Doubling Principle occurs in a declining stock, the presumption >> > is for a bounce, or at least a flattening out. Remember, I'm talking >> > about short term. When the Doubling Principle occurs in a rising stock, >> > the presumption is for a falling away, or at least a flattening out. >> > There is a bit more than a doubling taking place by the 28th and 29th. >> > >> > On July 1st the 3/7/10 gave a First and Second Level buy. The MACD had >> > confirmed the price breakdown of the 23rd and 24th. Though it did not >> > give a buy when the EMA did, notice that the black verticals are >> > shortening and give a buy early this morning. The MACD [12-26-9] in BC >> > lags the 3/7/10 EMA. However, I use several other settings: 8-17-9 and >> > 4-18-8. >> > >> > I use several stochastics: 5/10/15, 12/3/6, 12/6/8, 5/5/3, and 5/3/3. >> > The ones bouncing off the bottom confirmed the 3/7/10 and the MACD. >> > The 12/6/8 went buy today. >> > >> > I have two resistance lines drawn in: 43.25 and 47.5. The first was >> > erased in the first few minutes, and the second was untouched. >> > >> > The 3/7/10 approached a near Double about 10:15; beware. The MACD >> > confirmed the danger. Time to let loose one half of my position, just >> > in case. Greed is a nasty master. >> > >> > The 3/7/10 buy about 11:15 was unconfirmed by the MACD. Stay out. >> > >> > From about 10:45, the MACD implied and then confirmed weakness. The >> > implication continued through to the close. The 3/7/10 EMA was of no >> > use until the last hour when it went clearly sell. >> > >> > Notice that the stock did rise after the EMA and MACD turned sell. But, >> > notice especially, the MACD never wavered in its decline. This is a >> > good instance of a negative divergence that contrasted with price. The >> > MACD did not lie. I let the other half of my position go about 3:15. >> > >> > Take a look at the INDU and the NASDAQ. Look for the Doubling Principle >> > and watch the MACD. What more accurate indicators could you ask >> > for--and the price is right. >> > >> > Connie Mack >> > >> > >> > - >> > >> >> - > > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: david lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Real time chart Date: 07 Jul 1999 13:28:41 -0400 david lawson wrote: > > Connie Mack Rea wrote: > > > > > > > > I traded DELL and MU today. DELL as a wash, but MU was an instance of a > > couple of very good buy signals given by technical indicators. I'll use > > BigCharts so everyone can pretty much see what I saw. My actual trading > > was done from a real time 1- and 5-minute chart from other software. > > Other than the access to real time numbers, BC is an excellent trading > > tool. > > Connie, > > Out of curiosity which real time chart service do you use? I didn't see this message come through,so I'm sending it again. Thanks Ari - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Chris Hudson Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] AMEX Stocks e.g. MSS Date: 07 Jul 1999 12:48:58 -0500 Hugh & Tim, I too am holding HH. It has been sitting around 21 and not doing much lately though... -- Chris Hudson > -----Original Message----- > From: Hugh Fader [mailto:hfader@hotpop.com] > Sent: Tuesday, July 06, 1999 9:24 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AMEX Stocks e.g. MSS > > > Tim, > > HH seems now to be in a trading range between 20 and 22. I > was a little disturbed > that it fell below 20 today. It looked like it had > established solid support there > 6/22 and 6/23. I was close to putting in a stop order at 19 > 7/8 yesterday but held > off. Fortunately this breach was only for a brief time near > the open and we got a > 7/16 rise. > > What selling rules are you using? > > Hugh > > Tim Fisher wrote: > > > HH is an incredibly well-behaved AMEX stock. It is my only > recent CANSLIM > > buy which hasn't broken any selling rules. Even so look at > the one-day > > panic when it split on 2/1/99. AMEX stocks are famous for > irrational behavior. > > > > At 08:34 PM 7/6/99 -0400, you wrote: > > >I am following MSS which has risen to the top of a 5-week base. > > >The stock looks good from a CANSLIM perspective. It trades on > > >AMEX. I have seen at least one posting (I think from Tom Worley) > > >which counted that as a negative. Are AMEX stocks less desirable > > >than NYSE or NASDAQ? If so, how come? > > > > > >I have done pretty well recently with HH which is also an AMEX > > >stock, but it seems to be consolidating again now. > > > > > >Hugh > > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > > PFB Information > > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > > - > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: [CANSLIM] Overall market status Date: 07 Jul 1999 12:08:35 -0500 (CDT) The following URL gives you a very interesting look at the market. 15 indexes, including high and low of the day.. DJIA, Nasdaq COMP, and S&P500 also get real time graphs and percentage change. http://www.bigcharts.com/custom/merrilllynch-com/merronline/marketpulse.asp Normally accessed from the Merrill Lynch OnLine site, it works as well stand alone. Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Real time chart Date: 07 Jul 1999 15:26:48 -0400 Ari-- I'm using IQC on a trial basis. Not much impressed. It is still a work in progress. Connie david lawson wrote: > david lawson wrote: > > > > Connie Mack Rea wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > I traded DELL and MU today. DELL as a wash, but MU was an instance of a > > > couple of very good buy signals given by technical indicators. I'll use > > > BigCharts so everyone can pretty much see what I saw. My actual trading > > > was done from a real time 1- and 5-minute chart from other software. > > > Other than the access to real time numbers, BC is an excellent trading > > > tool. > > > > Connie, > > > > Out of curiosity which real time chart service do you use? > > I didn't see this message come through,so I'm sending it again. > > Thanks Ari > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: david lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Real time chart Date: 07 Jul 1999 11:54:06 -0400 Connie Mack Rea wrote: > > > I traded DELL and MU today. DELL as a wash, but MU was an instance of a > couple of very good buy signals given by technical indicators. I'll use > BigCharts so everyone can pretty much see what I saw. My actual trading > was done from a real time 1- and 5-minute chart from other software. > Other than the access to real time numbers, BC is an excellent trading > tool. Connie, Out of curiosity which real time chart service do you use? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Day trading. [Connie Mack] Date: 07 Jul 1999 16:34:26 -0400 Here's an article by a day trader found in today's NYTimes. http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/oped/07wins.html Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 07 Jul 1999 19:17:42 EDT Here are the latest Acc/Dis: Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 6/14/1999 1432 2841 1159 897 356 64% 5% 6/15/1999 1400 2836 1174 901 379 63% 6% 6/16/1999 1342 2814 1207 927 383 62% 6% 6/17/1999 1338 2804 1220 915 394 62% 6% 6/18/1999 1404 2836 1205 883 347 64% 5% 6/21/1999 1396 2881 1205 862 327 64% 5% 6/22/1999 1423 2862 1235 847 318 64% 5% 6/23/1999 1431 2892 1196 852 312 65% 5% 6/24/1999 1405 2883 1203 870 316 64% 5% 6/25/1999 1396 2847 1244 877 310 64% 5% 6/28/1999 1334 2841 1236 925 328 63% 5% 6/29/1999 1367 2799 1290 884 331 62% 5% 6/30/1999 1379 2830 1248 888 324 63% 5% 7/1/1999 1433 2854 1248 848 298 64% 4% 7/2/1999 1558 2861 1192 820 263 66% 4% 7/6/1999 1528 2907 1202 804 252 66% 4% Spread sheet version: Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 6/14/1999,1432,2841,1159,897,356,64%,5% 6/15/1999,1400,2836,1174,901,379,63%,6% 6/16/1999,1342,2814,1207,927,383,62%,6% 6/17/1999,1338,2804,1220,915,394,62%,6% 6/18/1999,1404,2836,1205,883,347,64%,5% 6/21/1999,1396,2881,1205,862,327,64%,5% 6/22/1999,1423,2862,1235,847,318,64%,5% 6/23/1999,1431,2892,1196,852,312,65%,5% 6/24/1999,1405,2883,1203,870,316,64%,5% 6/25/1999,1396,2847,1244,877,310,64%,5% 6/28/1999,1334,2841,1236,925,328,63%,5% 6/29/1999,1367,2799,1290,884,331,62%,5% 6/30/1999,1379,2830,1248,888,324,63%,5% 7/1/1999,1433,2854,1248,848,298,64%,4% 7/2/1999,1558,2861,1192,820,263,66%,4% 7/6/1999,1528,2907,1202,804,252,66%,4% Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] Date: 07 Jul 1999 23:05:15 -0400 Hugh, Just delete the default settings (or whatever you may have input) and enter "3,7,10" without the quote signs and with no spaces. Should work fine. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Morning Hugh-- Don't know what the problem might be. I took out all the numbers in the 3-line EMA and put in 3/7/10. Was okay here. You wouldn't have by chance at sometime used 3/6/9 and then set them as your default? Even so, 3/6/9 is certainly workable, as is 3/7/11--which one member wondered. Connie Hugh Fader wrote: > Connie, > > How do you get the 3/7/10 on BigCharts? In the past I thought you could put > 3 7 10 in for the period on the EMA 3-line field. Now I just get 3,6, and 9. > > Hugh > > Connie Mack Rea wrote: > > > Today was a good day to measure a couple of things: [1] how to enter a > > stock; how to exit and [2] how to see a daily reversal coming in an > > index. > > > > I traded DELL and MU today. DELL as a wash, but MU was an instance of a > > couple of very good buy signals given by technical indicators. I'll use > > BigCharts so everyone can pretty much see what I saw. My actual trading > > was done from a real time 1- and 5-minute chart from other software. > > Other than the access to real time numbers, BC is an excellent trading > > tool. > > > > Pull up a 1-month chart with a 3/7/10 EMA and an MACD in the bottom > > panel. > > What I had been watching was the result of the price breakdown on the > > 23rd and 24th of June. Especially, I was watching the developing of the > > distance between the 3 and 7 EMA. When the distance between the 3 and 7 > > EMA began to double the distance between the 7 and 10 EMA, the > > implication is that change of character is in close prospect. > > > > When the Doubling Principle occurs in a declining stock, the presumption > > is for a bounce, or at least a flattening out. Remember, I'm talking > > about short term. When the Doubling Principle occurs in a rising stock, > > the presumption is for a falling away, or at least a flattening out. > > There is a bit more than a doubling taking place by the 28th and 29th. > > > > On July 1st the 3/7/10 gave a First and Second Level buy. The MACD had > > confirmed the price breakdown of the 23rd and 24th. Though it did not > > give a buy when the EMA did, notice that the black verticals are > > shortening and give a buy early this morning. The MACD [12-26-9] in BC > > lags the 3/7/10 EMA. However, I use several other settings: 8-17-9 and > > 4-18-8. > > > > I use several stochastics: 5/10/15, 12/3/6, 12/6/8, 5/5/3, and 5/3/3. > > The ones bouncing off the bottom confirmed the 3/7/10 and the MACD. > > The 12/6/8 went buy today. > > > > I have two resistance lines drawn in: 43.25 and 47.5. The first was > > erased in the first few minutes, and the second was untouched. > > > > The 3/7/10 approached a near Double about 10:15; beware. The MACD > > confirmed the danger. Time to let loose one half of my position, just > > in case. Greed is a nasty master. > > > > The 3/7/10 buy about 11:15 was unconfirmed by the MACD. Stay out. > > > > >From about 10:45, the MACD implied and then confirmed weakness. The > > implication continued through to the close. The 3/7/10 EMA was of no > > use until the last hour when it went clearly sell. > > > > Notice that the stock did rise after the EMA and MACD turned sell. But, > > notice especially, the MACD never wavered in its decline. This is a > > good instance of a negative divergence that contrasted with price. The > > MACD did not lie. I let the other half of my position go about 3:15. > > > > Take a look at the INDU and the NASDAQ. Look for the Doubling Principle > > and watch the MACD. What more accurate indicators could you ask > > for--and the price is right. > > > > Connie Mack > > > > - > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] High funds, low management ownership Date: 07 Jul 1999 23:45:51 -0400 If anyone needs a lesson on what can happen when there is a large percentage of the float owned by funds, and only a small stake owned by management, then look at what Waste Management did today on bad news. Management only owns 4%, so even King Wayne doesn't still have much at risk. And funds owned (or should I say used to own) 33% of the float of 584.6 mil shares. Today's volume was over 70.3 million shares compared to an ADV of 2.6 mil shares. Folks, that's not grandma sweeping out the dogs from the broom closet! That's institutional volume. There were a number of warning signs on this one, including a more subtle one of rising earnings on declining sales. Another one with similar issues (and also bad news today) was NEON. 53% funds ownership of the float really punished it with a 56% loss in price in a single day. Management at least suffered as well, with a 45% stake in the issue. Volume was over 20X ADV. Also showed the same pattern of improved earnings on lesser sequential sales. Cost cuttings measures tend to have a finite life, these two were even shorter than expected, obviously. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Whisper numbers Date: 08 Jul 1999 00:15:40 -0400 After seeing how Alcoa was trashed for beating estimates, but failing to beat the "whisper"numbers, I was once again reminded of the random and unwritten rules of the stock market. Found this site tonight, and did some checking. May be worth bookmarking for some. To check on a company's whisper numbers, go to www.EarningsWhispers.com. I trotted out my five small/micro caps, and it had data for two, didn't follow two, and was too early for one. So I checked out two major losers of the day I mentioned earlier (WMI, NEON). Too early for WMI, and for NEON the estimate was for plus 12 cents, and the whisper for a loss of 12 cents. May help account for the big drop today, tho don't know how quickly this site is updated on news. Would be nice to know what it was saying yesterday on NEON. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Another free stock site similar to BigEasy and Itrader. [Connie Mack] Date: 08 Jul 1999 09:11:53 -0400 > I don't recall if I mentioned http://mach6.com. As I was cleaning out > my files, I found Mach6. However, only the icon remained. I do recall > that it was similar to BigEasy and Itrader; I'm not even sure what > "similar" means now. > > It does offer free delayed quotes, graphs, etc. It also offers real > time stuff for $35 or so. Perhaps someone would report on what is thought about the site. > > > Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "James Adams" Subject: [CANSLIM] Inst Ownereship on MERQ Date: 08 Jul 1999 10:01:40 -0400 Last week someone post the url for a site that show institutional ownership. Would you please send that to me at the email below. I'm looking for the inst ownership on MERQ. A friend who is a broker indicated that 75% of float owned by institutions. That sounds high to me. James Adams jadams@ntr.net Maysville, KY USA - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] What do bored traders do? [Connie Mack] Date: 08 Jul 1999 12:10:47 -0400 I just couldn't see the rise coming in DELL this morning. So, I sat, and sat, and sat. When I saw the strength, I decided to just have some fun. I'll sell DELL short. No big position; just 200 @40.12. Let me show you how I chose to go short. First, I looked for the Doubling Principle [twice the distance between the 3 and 7 EMAs as compared to the distance between the 7 and 10 EMAs. Look at BigCharts with the 3/7/10 EMA. Second, I looked at the MACD. By 11:30 the 3/7/10 was "close" to doubling. Get ready. The bars on the MACD even earlier started to shorten. Good confirmation. Short 200 @ 40.125. Done. This looks like more of a lucky entry than a logical one. So, I'm lucky. I have a support drawn in at 36.5. That would be an outlandish hope. Even a 2 point profit will do nicely. Even a one point profit would help pay the rent. Right now DELL is 39.81. Now the fun begins for a trader who missed taking a long position early. Though I expect the market to trend down the next three or four days, it is always a bit dangerous to short in an intermediate and long term uptrend. So, bored traders do the irrational. But not so irrational that they don't watch every tick until they exit. There is a difference between irrationality and down right stupidity. At least, there used to be. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] A Plea for help - BONE MARROW DONOR NEEDED Date: 07 Jul 1999 22:52:24 -0400 For those of you that have never registered as a possible bone marrow donor, I am asking for your help. Gary is the son of a very dear friend and former associate. His mother was my boss, and a good one, for several years as well as instrumental in helping me get my present job. They are a good family, and Gary is a good "kid" of only 24 years. He desperately needs a bone marrow transplant, urgently. A 24 year old should not have to be fighting for his life, but that's his reality. Finding a good match is very difficult, making the donation is relatively easy and mostly painless. OK, so there's some pain, but measured against saving a young life? And you can replace the bone marrow you donate, something Gary can't do right now! My friends, I don't often ask anything of you. But this is serious, please, please call one of the numbers below, or call the local Red Cross for a referral. Or call your local blood donation site. Make the attempt, even if you turn out not to be a good match. There are thousands of others out there whose life you might save. And if you are permitted, please mention Gary Bleus' name, he is in Pembroke Pines, Florida. And needless to say, also please pass this request along to anyone you can, at work, on the internet, in church, or wherever. Please help in any way you can. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html GARY BLEUS IS 24YEARS OLD AND SUFFERS FROM LYMPHOMA YOUR DONATION OF BONE MARROW CELLS COULD SAVE HIS LIFE PLEASE GIVE THE GIFT OF LIFE: BE A BONE MARROW DONOR!!! TO BECOME A BONE MARROW DONOR YOU NEED ONLY TO DONATE BLOOD FOR CELLS MATCHING AT ONE OF THE FOLLOWING CENTERS: COMMUNITY BLOOD CENTER OF SOUTH FLORIDA DADE (305) 326-8888 EXTENSION 606 BROWARD (954) 735-9600 ASSOCIATION OF INDEPENDENT BLOOD CENTERS PALM BEACH COUNTY (800) 826-8650 VARIOUS OUT OF STATE CENTERS CALIFORNIA: CONTACT BONNIE FOXCROFT AT AMERICAN RED CROSS (800) 843-2949 EXTENSION 5595 OR (213) 739-5595 COLORADO: CONTACT PATTY OWENS AT (303) 363-2345 MARYLAND: CONTACT LUIS HOFFER AT JOHN HOPKINS UNIV. (410) 955-6347 MASSACHUSSETTS: CONTACT DANA FARBER AT (617) 632-3660 NEW YORK: CONTACT JANET DI NAPOLI AT (212) 570-3210 NORTH CAROLINA: CONTACT KAYE PIERCY AT (800) 228-1496 OKLAHOMA: CONTACT SYLVAN GOLDMAN CENTER (800) 375-8778 EXT 619 PENNSYLVANIA: CONTACT JASON GANGWERE AT AMERICAN RED CROSS (215) 451-4302 VIRGINIA: (800) 989- 4438 OR (804) 359-5100 OTHER STATES: CONTACT ANY BLOOD DONATION CENTER OR LINDA NIEDERKORN AT THE NATIONAL DONOR REGISTRY AT (800) 627-3529 EXTENSION 845 OUTSIDE OF THE UNITES STATES: CONTACT ANY BLOOD DONATION CENTERS IN YOUR RESPECTIVE COUNTRY PLEASE NOTE: IF YOU ARE A MEMBER OF ANY MINORITY GROUP, SOME STATES (INCLUDING FLORIDA) HAVE APPROPRIATED FUNDS FOR THE TYPING OF THEIR VARIOUS MINORITY GROUPS. THANK YOU!!! THANK YOU!!! THANK YOU!!! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Still bored. I'll read the WSJ. [Connie Maack] Date: 08 Jul 1999 13:05:39 -0400 DELL is up to 39.88 since the last mail. Damn. Anyway, the fourth column from the left on the front page of the WSJ always has an off beat story. Today's was a story about a punchinello [I'm guessing] who sent his girl an email "Dear Jane." Obviously, there had been no promiscuous encounters of one lover houghing the other, but there was the non-clinical analysis of the relation. But what caught my attention was not the unavailability of the one lover to suffer the crying of the other, but this comment by the journalist: "Misspellings and bad grammar can be as annoying to one half of an e-mail couple as the errant toothpaste cap." I get several market reports by individuals whose grammar, spelling, and punctuation annoy me more than their erring judgements. A commercial site ought not have a single error. Readers infer a deficiency with an occasional error but proceed to incompentency when errors persist. It takes but a minute or so to run a piece through the spell checker and to re-read for obvious fluffs and coherence. But a grammar checker is an iffy contrivance because grammar is too complex for any checker yet made. DELL is now at 40. The fun is turning serious. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: SCNYB Date: 08 Jul 1999 19:05:33 +0100 I tried to send this yesterday, but it did not go through for some reason. What do people think of this as a canslim stock? ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, July 07, 1999 10:44 PM Take a look at SCNYB Over 30% rise preceding base cup and handle is short - about 5 weeks good price and volume action Great earnings increases good group Best wishes Marc - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fw: SCNYB Date: 08 Jul 1999 14:42:24 -0400 Marc, I make the pivot to be 23 3/4. Buying range = 23 7/8 to about 26 1/4 (+10%). I'd call it a 4 week base (very short). What a rocket of a stock - surprised I had not noticed it before. It is up 150% since the last base (ran from 9 to 24). Certainly is in a hurry. QP2 doesn't show any fundies data, but it looks too late to me anyway - by a point or so (although it may pull back for a second chance ala RFMD yesterday and early today). It is a fairly high risk stock due to the extraordinarily short base. Don't they make tennis shoes? NKE has had a hard time there recently, but KSWS made a big run over the last few months. Certainly plenty of competition in that business. I don't understand the big runs (is the NKE revenue swinging to the smaller competitors?) ... but the action speaks for itself. Nice chart. Probably a turnaround vis a vis the fundamentals (1 out of 3 CS stocks are). I have not looked at the CS numbers since QP2 doesn't have them. But it looks very promising if you caught it close to the base yesterday or day before. Of course you never know. As a friend used to say "Its Your Call". Good luck. Best Regards, Craig At 07:05 PM 7/8/99 +0100, you wrote: >I tried to send this yesterday, but it did not go through for some reason. >What do people think of this as a canslim stock? >----- Original Message ----- >From: Marclaniado >To: canslim >Sent: Wednesday, July 07, 1999 10:44 PM >Subject: SCNYB > > >Take a look at SCNYB >Over 30% rise preceding base >cup and handle is short - about 5 weeks >good price and volume action >Great earnings increases >good group > >Best wishes >Marc > > > > > >- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Time to end the fun. [Connie Mack] Date: 08 Jul 1999 15:55:27 -0400 I'm out. Covered at 40.06. Made $12. Commissions 26. A few hours' fun: $14. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] Date: 08 Jul 1999 18:32:55 -0400 Thanks Tom and Connie. It was the commas that I needed. I tried "3 7 10" and "3/7/10" to no avail. Tom Worley wrote: > Hugh, > > Just delete the default settings (or whatever you may have > input) and enter "3,7,10" without the quote signs and with > no spaces. Should work fine. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > -----Original Message----- > From: Connie Mack Rea > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Wednesday, July 07, 1999 8:10 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] > > Morning Hugh-- > > Don't know what the problem might be. I took out all the > numbers in the 3-line > EMA and put in 3/7/10. Was okay here. > > You wouldn't have by chance at sometime used 3/6/9 and then > set them as your > default? > > Even so, 3/6/9 is certainly workable, as is 3/7/11--which > one member wondered. > > Connie > > Hugh Fader wrote: > > > Connie, > > > > How do you get the 3/7/10 on BigCharts? In the past I > thought you could put > > 3 7 10 in for the period on the EMA 3-line field. Now I > just get 3,6, and 9. > > > > Hugh > > > > Connie Mack Rea wrote: > > > > > Today was a good day to measure a couple of things: [1] > how to enter a > > > stock; how to exit and [2] how to see a daily reversal > coming in an > > > index. > > > > > > I traded DELL and MU today. DELL as a wash, but MU was > an instance of a > > > couple of very good buy signals given by technical > indicators. I'll use > > > BigCharts so everyone can pretty much see what I saw. > My actual trading > > > was done from a real time 1- and 5-minute chart from > other software. > > > Other than the access to real time numbers, BC is an > excellent trading > > > tool. > > > > > > Pull up a 1-month chart with a 3/7/10 EMA and an MACD in > the bottom > > > panel. > > > What I had been watching was the result of the price > breakdown on the > > > 23rd and 24th of June. Especially, I was watching the > developing of the > > > distance between the 3 and 7 EMA. When the distance > between the 3 and 7 > > > EMA began to double the distance between the 7 and 10 > EMA, the > > > implication is that change of character is in close > prospect. > > > > > > When the Doubling Principle occurs in a declining stock, > the presumption > > > is for a bounce, or at least a flattening out. > Remember, I'm talking > > > about short term. When the Doubling Principle occurs in > a rising stock, > > > the presumption is for a falling away, or at least a > flattening out. > > > There is a bit more than a doubling taking place by the > 28th and 29th. > > > > > > On July 1st the 3/7/10 gave a First and Second Level > buy. The MACD had > > > confirmed the price breakdown of the 23rd and 24th. > Though it did not > > > give a buy when the EMA did, notice that the black > verticals are > > > shortening and give a buy early this morning. The MACD > [12-26-9] in BC > > > lags the 3/7/10 EMA. However, I use several other > settings: 8-17-9 and > > > 4-18-8. > > > > > > I use several stochastics: 5/10/15, 12/3/6, 12/6/8, > 5/5/3, and 5/3/3. > > > The ones bouncing off the bottom confirmed the 3/7/10 > and the MACD. > > > The 12/6/8 went buy today. > > > > > > I have two resistance lines drawn in: 43.25 and 47.5. > The first was > > > erased in the first few minutes, and the second was > untouched. > > > > > > The 3/7/10 approached a near Double about 10:15; beware. > The MACD > > > confirmed the danger. Time to let loose one half of my > position, just > > > in case. Greed is a nasty master. > > > > > > The 3/7/10 buy about 11:15 was unconfirmed by the MACD. > Stay out. > > > > > > >From about 10:45, the MACD implied and then confirmed > weakness. The > > > implication continued through to the close. The 3/7/10 > EMA was of no > > > use until the last hour when it went clearly sell. > > > > > > Notice that the stock did rise after the EMA and MACD > turned sell. But, > > > notice especially, the MACD never wavered in its > decline. This is a > > > good instance of a negative divergence that contrasted > with price. The > > > MACD did not lie. I let the other half of my position > go about 3:15. > > > > > > Take a look at the INDU and the NASDAQ. Look for the > Doubling Principle > > > and watch the MACD. What more accurate indicators could > you ask > > > for--and the price is right. > > > > > > Connie Mack > > > > > > - > > > > - > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A Plea for help - BONE MARROW DONOR NEEDED Date: 08 Jul 1999 15:42:16 -0700 It is good that you have sent this. Alas, though, I am precluded because of my past prostate cancer. I found that it is a simple blood draw, not a marrow sample, and that the Red Cross goes into the community. As an example, here near Disneyland, there is a collection at a Von's Supermarket this weekend. It is a simple procedure and readily accessible. Dan Tom Worley wrote: > For those of you that have never registered as a possible > bone marrow donor, I am asking for your help. Gary is the > son of a very dear friend and former associate. His mother > was my boss, and a good one, for several years as well as > instrumental in helping me get my present job. They are a > good family, and Gary is a good "kid" of only 24 years. > > He desperately needs a bone marrow transplant, urgently. A > 24 year old should not have to be fighting for his life, but > that's his reality. Finding a good match is very difficult, > making the donation is relatively easy and mostly painless. > OK, so there's some pain, but measured against saving a > young life? And you can replace the bone marrow you donate, > something Gary can't do right now! > > My friends, I don't often ask anything of you. But this is > serious, please, please call one of the numbers below, or > call the local Red Cross for a referral. Or call your local > blood donation site. Make the attempt, even if you turn out > not to be a good match. There are thousands of others out > there whose life you might save. > > And if you are permitted, please mention Gary Bleus' name, > he is in Pembroke Pines, Florida. And needless to say, also > please pass this request along to anyone you can, at work, > on the internet, in church, or wherever. > > Please help in any way you can. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > GARY BLEUS IS 24YEARS OLD AND SUFFERS FROM LYMPHOMA > > YOUR DONATION OF BONE MARROW CELLS COULD SAVE HIS LIFE > PLEASE GIVE THE GIFT OF LIFE: BE A BONE MARROW DONOR!!! > > TO BECOME A BONE MARROW DONOR YOU NEED ONLY TO DONATE BLOOD > FOR CELLS MATCHING AT ONE OF THE FOLLOWING CENTERS: > > COMMUNITY BLOOD CENTER OF SOUTH FLORIDA > DADE (305) 326-8888 EXTENSION 606 > BROWARD (954) 735-9600 > > ASSOCIATION OF INDEPENDENT BLOOD CENTERS > PALM BEACH COUNTY (800) 826-8650 > > VARIOUS OUT OF STATE CENTERS > > CALIFORNIA: CONTACT BONNIE FOXCROFT AT AMERICAN RED CROSS > (800) 843-2949 EXTENSION 5595 OR (213) 739-5595 > COLORADO: CONTACT PATTY OWENS AT (303) 363-2345 > MARYLAND: CONTACT LUIS HOFFER AT JOHN HOPKINS UNIV. > (410) 955-6347 > MASSACHUSSETTS: CONTACT DANA FARBER AT (617) 632-3660 > NEW YORK: CONTACT JANET DI NAPOLI AT (212) 570-3210 > NORTH CAROLINA: CONTACT KAYE PIERCY AT (800) 228-1496 > OKLAHOMA: CONTACT SYLVAN GOLDMAN CENTER (800) 375-8778 EXT > 619 > PENNSYLVANIA: CONTACT JASON GANGWERE AT AMERICAN RED CROSS > (215) 451-4302 > VIRGINIA: (800) 989- 4438 OR (804) 359-5100 > > OTHER STATES: > > CONTACT ANY BLOOD DONATION CENTER OR LINDA NIEDERKORN > AT THE NATIONAL DONOR REGISTRY AT (800) 627-3529 EXTENSION > 845 > > OUTSIDE OF THE UNITES STATES: > > CONTACT ANY BLOOD DONATION CENTERS IN YOUR RESPECTIVE > COUNTRY > > PLEASE NOTE: IF YOU ARE A MEMBER OF ANY MINORITY GROUP, > SOME STATES > (INCLUDING FLORIDA) HAVE APPROPRIATED FUNDS FOR THE TYPING > OF THEIR VARIOUS MINORITY GROUPS. > > THANK YOU!!! THANK YOU!!! THANK YOU!!! > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Surindra Singh" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Time to end the fun. [Connie Mack] Date: 08 Jul 1999 19:12:07 -0400 I will love to do this too for that kind of money. Problem is I loose 100 times..... Great posting Connie. I will never short any stock which has EPS rank of 99, my personal view. Regards and have a nice Friday Connie. Surindra ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Thursday, July 08, 1999 3:55 PM > I'm out. Covered at 40.06. > > Made $12. Commissions 26. A few hours' fun: $14. > > Connie Mack > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] Date: 08 Jul 1999 16:31:30 -0700 First select SMA or EMA (3 Line) Try: 3comma7comma10comma no spaces Dan Hugh Fader wrote: > Thanks Tom and Connie. It was the commas that I needed. I tried > "3 7 10" and "3/7/10" to no avail. > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > Hugh, > > > > Just delete the default settings (or whatever you may have > > input) and enter "3,7,10" without the quote signs and with > > no spaces. Should work fine. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: Connie Mack Rea > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Date: Wednesday, July 07, 1999 8:10 AM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] > > > > Morning Hugh-- > > > > Don't know what the problem might be. I took out all the > > numbers in the 3-line > > EMA and put in 3/7/10. Was okay here. > > > > You wouldn't have by chance at sometime used 3/6/9 and then > > set them as your > > default? > > > > Even so, 3/6/9 is certainly workable, as is 3/7/11--which > > one member wondered. > > > > Connie > > > > Hugh Fader wrote: > > > > > Connie, > > > > > > How do you get the 3/7/10 on BigCharts? In the past I > > thought you could put > > > 3 7 10 in for the period on the EMA 3-line field. Now I > > just get 3,6, and 9. > > > > > > Hugh > > > > > > Connie Mack Rea wrote: > > > > > > > Today was a good day to measure a couple of things: [1] > > how to enter a > > > > stock; how to exit and [2] how to see a daily reversal > > coming in an > > > > index. > > > > > > > > I traded DELL and MU today. DELL as a wash, but MU was > > an instance of a > > > > couple of very good buy signals given by technical > > indicators. I'll use > > > > BigCharts so everyone can pretty much see what I saw. > > My actual trading > > > > was done from a real time 1- and 5-minute chart from > > other software. > > > > Other than the access to real time numbers, BC is an > > excellent trading > > > > tool. > > > > > > > > Pull up a 1-month chart with a 3/7/10 EMA and an MACD in > > the bottom > > > > panel. > > > > What I had been watching was the result of the price > > breakdown on the > > > > 23rd and 24th of June. Especially, I was watching the > > developing of the > > > > distance between the 3 and 7 EMA. When the distance > > between the 3 and 7 > > > > EMA began to double the distance between the 7 and 10 > > EMA, the > > > > implication is that change of character is in close > > prospect. > > > > > > > > When the Doubling Principle occurs in a declining stock, > > the presumption > > > > is for a bounce, or at least a flattening out. > > Remember, I'm talking > > > > about short term. When the Doubling Principle occurs in > > a rising stock, > > > > the presumption is for a falling away, or at least a > > flattening out. > > > > There is a bit more than a doubling taking place by the > > 28th and 29th. > > > > > > > > On July 1st the 3/7/10 gave a First and Second Level > > buy. The MACD had > > > > confirmed the price breakdown of the 23rd and 24th. > > Though it did not > > > > give a buy when the EMA did, notice that the black > > verticals are > > > > shortening and give a buy early this morning. The MACD > > [12-26-9] in BC > > > > lags the 3/7/10 EMA. However, I use several other > > settings: 8-17-9 and > > > > 4-18-8. > > > > > > > > I use several stochastics: 5/10/15, 12/3/6, 12/6/8, > > 5/5/3, and 5/3/3. > > > > The ones bouncing off the bottom confirmed the 3/7/10 > > and the MACD. > > > > The 12/6/8 went buy today. > > > > > > > > I have two resistance lines drawn in: 43.25 and 47.5. > > The first was > > > > erased in the first few minutes, and the second was > > untouched. > > > > > > > > The 3/7/10 approached a near Double about 10:15; beware. > > The MACD > > > > confirmed the danger. Time to let loose one half of my > > position, just > > > > in case. Greed is a nasty master. > > > > > > > > The 3/7/10 buy about 11:15 was unconfirmed by the MACD. > > Stay out. > > > > > > > > >From about 10:45, the MACD implied and then confirmed > > weakness. The > > > > implication continued through to the close. The 3/7/10 > > EMA was of no > > > > use until the last hour when it went clearly sell. > > > > > > > > Notice that the stock did rise after the EMA and MACD > > turned sell. But, > > > > notice especially, the MACD never wavered in its > > decline. This is a > > > > good instance of a negative divergence that contrasted > > with price. The > > > > MACD did not lie. I let the other half of my position > > go about 3:15. > > > > > > > > Take a look at the INDU and the NASDAQ. Look for the > > Doubling Principle > > > > and watch the MACD. What more accurate indicators could > > you ask > > > > for--and the price is right. > > > > > > > > Connie Mack > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > - > > > > - > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Time to end the fun. [Connie Mack] Date: 08 Jul 1999 19:34:42 -0400 Evening Surindra-- Have got to put you at ease with the ol' 3/7/10 and an MACD. With a short or two thrown in, just for fun. Tell me when you're ready. Thanks for the note. And a good Friday to you. Connie Surindra Singh wrote: > I will love to do this too for that kind of money. Problem is I loose 100 > times..... > > Great posting Connie. > > I will never short any stock which has EPS rank of 99, my personal view. > > Regards and have a nice Friday Connie. > > Surindra > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Connie Mack Rea > To: canslim > Sent: Thursday, July 08, 1999 3:55 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Time to end the fun. [Connie Mack] > > > I'm out. Covered at 40.06. > > > > Made $12. Commissions 26. A few hours' fun: $14. > > > > Connie Mack > > > > > > - > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A Plea for help - BONE MARROW DONOR NEEDED Date: 08 Jul 1999 20:48:03 -0400 Hi Dan, You are correct, the first process of elimination is a blood sample. The Red Cross van is going to be at my building first thing Monday morning, and the list is growing already. Any potential donors that pass the first (blood) test then get further testing to see if they remain viable donor candidates. But if you register as a bone marrow donor, even if you are eliminated as someone who might be able to help Gary, you may still pop up in the future as a potential donor for someone else, so the more that actually register, not just for Gary but as a person willing to donate, the better. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- NEEDED It is good that you have sent this. Alas, though, I am precluded because of my past prostate cancer. I found that it is a simple blood draw, not a marrow sample, and that the Red Cross goes into the community. As an example, here near Disneyland, there is a collection at a Von's Supermarket this weekend. It is a simple procedure and readily accessible. Dan Tom Worley wrote: > For those of you that have never registered as a possible > bone marrow donor, I am asking for your help. Gary is the > son of a very dear friend and former associate. His mother > was my boss, and a good one, for several years as well as > instrumental in helping me get my present job. They are a > good family, and Gary is a good "kid" of only 24 years. > > He desperately needs a bone marrow transplant, urgently. A > 24 year old should not have to be fighting for his life, but > that's his reality. Finding a good match is very difficult, > making the donation is relatively easy and mostly painless. > OK, so there's some pain, but measured against saving a > young life? And you can replace the bone marrow you donate, > something Gary can't do right now! > > My friends, I don't often ask anything of you. But this is > serious, please, please call one of the numbers below, or > call the local Red Cross for a referral. Or call your local > blood donation site. Make the attempt, even if you turn out > not to be a good match. There are thousands of others out > there whose life you might save. > > And if you are permitted, please mention Gary Bleus' name, > he is in Pembroke Pines, Florida. And needless to say, also > please pass this request along to anyone you can, at work, > on the internet, in church, or wherever. > > Please help in any way you can. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > GARY BLEUS IS 24YEARS OLD AND SUFFERS FROM LYMPHOMA > > YOUR DONATION OF BONE MARROW CELLS COULD SAVE HIS LIFE > PLEASE GIVE THE GIFT OF LIFE: BE A BONE MARROW DONOR!!! > > TO BECOME A BONE MARROW DONOR YOU NEED ONLY TO DONATE BLOOD > FOR CELLS MATCHING AT ONE OF THE FOLLOWING CENTERS: > > COMMUNITY BLOOD CENTER OF SOUTH FLORIDA > DADE (305) 326-8888 EXTENSION 606 > BROWARD (954) 735-9600 > > ASSOCIATION OF INDEPENDENT BLOOD CENTERS > PALM BEACH COUNTY (800) 826-8650 > > VARIOUS OUT OF STATE CENTERS > > CALIFORNIA: CONTACT BONNIE FOXCROFT AT AMERICAN RED CROSS > (800) 843-2949 EXTENSION 5595 OR (213) 739-5595 > COLORADO: CONTACT PATTY OWENS AT (303) 363-2345 > MARYLAND: CONTACT LUIS HOFFER AT JOHN HOPKINS UNIV. > (410) 955-6347 > MASSACHUSSETTS: CONTACT DANA FARBER AT (617) 632-3660 > NEW YORK: CONTACT JANET DI NAPOLI AT (212) 570-3210 > NORTH CAROLINA: CONTACT KAYE PIERCY AT (800) 228-1496 > OKLAHOMA: CONTACT SYLVAN GOLDMAN CENTER (800) 375-8778 EXT > 619 > PENNSYLVANIA: CONTACT JASON GANGWERE AT AMERICAN RED CROSS > (215) 451-4302 > VIRGINIA: (800) 989- 4438 OR (804) 359-5100 > > OTHER STATES: > > CONTACT ANY BLOOD DONATION CENTER OR LINDA NIEDERKORN > AT THE NATIONAL DONOR REGISTRY AT (800) 627-3529 EXTENSION > 845 > > OUTSIDE OF THE UNITES STATES: > > CONTACT ANY BLOOD DONATION CENTERS IN YOUR RESPECTIVE > COUNTRY > > PLEASE NOTE: IF YOU ARE A MEMBER OF ANY MINORITY GROUP, > SOME STATES > (INCLUDING FLORIDA) HAVE APPROPRIATED FUNDS FOR THE TYPING > OF THEIR VARIOUS MINORITY GROUPS. > > THANK YOU!!! THANK YOU!!! THANK YOU!!! > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Sam Funchess Subject: [CANSLIM] Clec Date: 09 Jul 1999 09:55:14 -0400 Clec seems to be breaking out. Just ran across it so I have not done any research. Sam - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Sam Funchess Subject: [CANSLIM] CLEC Date: 09 Jul 1999 09:56:43 -0400 Clec was volume information from yesterday. My connection went dead and I pulled information from cache. Sorry Sam - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Inst Ownereship on MERQ Date: 09 Jul 1999 14:11:27 GMT On Thu, 8 Jul 1999 10:01:40 -0400, you wrote: :Last week someone post the url for a site that show institutional = ownership. :Would you please send that to me at the email below. :I'm looking for the inst ownership on MERQ. A friend who is a broker :indicated that 75% of float owned by institutions. That sounds high to = me. : :James Adams :jadams@ntr.net :Maysville, KY USA http://www.wsrn.com/home/dataset/quicksource.html?symbol=3DCHCS&page=3D1 =20 http://www.wsrn.com/home/dataset/quicksource.html?symbol=3DTMBS&page=3D1 What you have to do for this one is substitute the symbol of the stock for the ones above and go to that URL. That works. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] Date: 08 Jul 1999 21:22:49 -0400 For those that subscribe to WON's moving averages, you can input 50 and 200 day lines, but for some reason, if you use three lines ( I want something of the trader's edge, so use "10,50,200") then the legend that shows on the chart won't give a color code for the 200, yet the line will be drawn on the chart. I suspect I just need to expand my pixels display, but haven't bothered as the line is there, I can see which one it is, so who needs a legend! Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Thanks Tom and Connie. It was the commas that I needed. I tried "3 7 10" and "3/7/10" to no avail. Tom Worley wrote: > Hugh, > > Just delete the default settings (or whatever you may have > input) and enter "3,7,10" without the quote signs and with > no spaces. Should work fine. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > -----Original Message----- > From: Connie Mack Rea > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Wednesday, July 07, 1999 8:10 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical look at MU. [Connie Mack] > > Morning Hugh-- > > Don't know what the problem might be. I took out all the > numbers in the 3-line > EMA and put in 3/7/10. Was okay here. > > You wouldn't have by chance at sometime used 3/6/9 and then > set them as your > default? > > Even so, 3/6/9 is certainly workable, as is 3/7/11--which > one member wondered. > > Connie > > Hugh Fader wrote: > > > Connie, > > > > How do you get the 3/7/10 on BigCharts? In the past I > thought you could put > > 3 7 10 in for the period on the EMA 3-line field. Now I > just get 3,6, and 9. > > > > Hugh > > > > Connie Mack Rea wrote: > > > > > Today was a good day to measure a couple of things: [1] > how to enter a > > > stock; how to exit and [2] how to see a daily reversal > coming in an > > > index. > > > > > > I traded DELL and MU today. DELL as a wash, but MU was > an instance of a > > > couple of very good buy signals given by technical > indicators. I'll use > > > BigCharts so everyone can pretty much see what I saw. > My actual trading > > > was done from a real time 1- and 5-minute chart from > other software. > > > Other than the access to real time numbers, BC is an > excellent trading > > > tool. > > > > > > Pull up a 1-month chart with a 3/7/10 EMA and an MACD in > the bottom > > > panel. > > > What I had been watching was the result of the price > breakdown on the > > > 23rd and 24th of June. Especially, I was watching the > developing of the > > > distance between the 3 and 7 EMA. When the distance > between the 3 and 7 > > > EMA began to double the distance between the 7 and 10 > EMA, the > > > implication is that change of character is in close > prospect. > > > > > > When the Doubling Principle occurs in a declining stock, > the presumption > > > is for a bounce, or at least a flattening out. > Remember, I'm talking > > > about short term. When the Doubling Principle occurs in > a rising stock, > > > the presumption is for a falling away, or at least a > flattening out. > > > There is a bit more than a doubling taking place by the > 28th and 29th. > > > > > > On July 1st the 3/7/10 gave a First and Second Level > buy. The MACD had > > > confirmed the price breakdown of the 23rd and 24th. > Though it did not > > > give a buy when the EMA did, notice that the black > verticals are > > > shortening and give a buy early this morning. The MACD > [12-26-9] in BC > > > lags the 3/7/10 EMA. However, I use several other > settings: 8-17-9 and > > > 4-18-8. > > > > > > I use several stochastics: 5/10/15, 12/3/6, 12/6/8, > 5/5/3, and 5/3/3. > > > The ones bouncing off the bottom confirmed the 3/7/10 > and the MACD. > > > The 12/6/8 went buy today. > > > > > > I have two resistance lines drawn in: 43.25 and 47.5. > The first was > > > erased in the first few minutes, and the second was > untouched. > > > > > > The 3/7/10 approached a near Double about 10:15; beware. > The MACD > > > confirmed the danger. Time to let loose one half of my > position, just > > > in case. Greed is a nasty master. > > > > > > The 3/7/10 buy about 11:15 was unconfirmed by the MACD. > Stay out. > > > > > > >From about 10:45, the MACD implied and then confirmed > weakness. The > > > implication continued through to the close. The 3/7/10 > EMA was of no > > > use until the last hour when it went clearly sell. > > > > > > Notice that the stock did rise after the EMA and MACD > turned sell. But, > > > notice especially, the MACD never wavered in its > decline. This is a > > > good instance of a negative divergence that contrasted > with price. The > > > MACD did not lie. I let the other half of my position > go about 3:15. > > > > > > Take a look at the INDU and the NASDAQ. Look for the > Doubling Principle > > > and watch the MACD. What more accurate indicators could > you ask > > > for--and the price is right. > > > > > > Connie Mack > > > > > > - > > > > - > > - > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Settings for BigCharts Date: 10 Jul 1999 10:19:31 -0400 Some have asked me what settings I prefer for BigCharts. I will givethose and a couple of other useful points. I am using Netscape/Communicator 4.01. There is not much reason for using earlier numbers, for downloads are free. Communicator 4.05 is out. I prefer Netscape to Explorer, though you can run them both simultaneously. > BC is programmed in "frames." That means that there are several smaller > frames [pictures] within the larger frame, which is the screen you see > when you pull up BC. You can change several settings by clicking > Edit/Preferences/Appearance/Fonts. There you can choose a font/size, and > a number of other preferences. > > Too, you can click on any frame and change the font size by clicking on > View. > > You should be familiar with everything on the Preferences menu; there is > much else there about mail and other settings. BC has two major screens. The first is > > > Time Frame: Set to 3-mos for initial scan with MoneyFlow [MF] in lower > window. Once stock is selected: [1] switch to OnBalanceVolume [OBV] in > lower window; [2] switch to SlowStochastic [and sometimes to > FastStochastic if you want to be aggressive]; [3] switch to MACD; [4] > switch to Volume+. I rarely look at anything else except Volume > Accumulation. > > EMA [exponential moving average] is altered. Go to Indicators. Click > the EMA 3-line and erase the 5 you should see, which is the default. > Enter this line exactly, with the commas: 3,7,10. You should see these > numbers appear at the top or the chart after you click Draw Chart. You > can insert any numbers you want, and, as I recall, up to six or seven > numbers. > > I look at a 1-mos chart out of habit. Then I look at a 5-day hourly > chart to find support/resistance. I may or may not run all the > indicators through the 5-day setting. You do get some radically > different perspectives from intraday charts. I look especially for any > positive divergence occurring in the last five days. If I can discern > support/resistance on the 5-day, I go to the 1-day 5-minute chart to > find an entry number. > > I leave the Index to None. > > Upper Indicators: Parabolic SAR. Don't sell this indicator short. Not > exactly the right words. Don't ignore this indicator. It is designed > to keep you in the market, either long or short, all the time. It > tracks my EMA fairly closely. I have asked BC for the formula to no > avail. > > Lower Indicators: MoneyFlow [or OBV, for I discard any stock not meeting > both parameters]. > > Price Display: Always candles. > > Chart Background: Either Default or Three Tone. Three Tone wastes a lot > of ink when you print. Some of the other displays are very colorful. > However, sometimes when you print out a chart, the colors will print > between gray and darker and black. You can use up a printer head ink > supply pretty quick when you print anything but black on white. > > If you find, on other sites, almost all color displays, you can usually > do this to get away from using up your ink incredibly fast, and I mean > fast: Edit/Select All/Copy. Then open up a word processor page and do > this: Edit/Paste. This will usually alter the format to black and > white, from which you can now print. You may lose some formating, for > color pages are more complex than plain text. > > Chart Size: Click Large, and depending on how large your fonts are, you > may or may not be able to see the whole chart at once. If you can't see > the whole chart, chose Medium or Small. > > And choose Store Settings. > > You can print from three locations: File/Print, Print from your upper > status line, and Print Charts on the bottom right of the chart page. If > you're not familiar with File/Print/Print Prevue do so. You get > slightly different data when printing from Print in your status line > and File/Print than you do from Print Charts. > > In the past I have had trouble with Print Charts after printing three or > four pages; I no longer use it. > > I print out every chart [4-6] because I know of no way to include two or > more lower charts on a single page. > > Connie Mack > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Settings for BigCharts [Connie Mack] Date: 10 Jul 1999 11:16:35 -0400 Please forgive my clumsiness. I inadertently hit the Send before I had done my editing. Some have asked me what settings I prefer for BigCharts. I will give those and a couple of other useful points. I am using Netscape/Communicator 4.01. There is not much reason for using earlier numbers, for downloads are free. Communicator 4.05 is out. I prefer Netscape to Explorer, though you can run them both simultaneously. The following is a slightly edited version of last year's post. BC is programmed in "frames." That means that there are several smaller frames [pictures] within the larger frame, which is the screen you see when you pull up BC. You can change several settings by clicking Edit/Preferences/Appearance/Fonts. There you can choose a font/size, and a number of other preferences. Too, you can click on any frame and change the font size. Click anywhere in the frame and then click View/Increase Font/Decrease Font. The main frames are the one to the left where the indicator settings are; the one with price and volume; and the one with the chart. You can save any changes as you default by going to the very bottom of the left frame to Store Settings. You should be familiar with everything on the Preferences menu; there is much else there about mail and other settings. By clicking on the small text above indicators, you will be taken to a glossary. Index charts and quotes are real time. Equities are delayed. BC has two major screens. The first is http://www.BigCharts.com. Here you can see abbreviated charts, find mutual funds and indices, and Big Reports, which is about the best scans for dozens of criteria. Clicking on Sector will allow you to sequentially narrow down to individual stocks. The other screen is got by clicking Interactive. This will take you to http://www.BigCharts.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=nasdaq, where the more detailed charts are. Time Frame: Set to 3-mos for initial scan with MoneyFlow [MF] in lower window. Once stock is selected: [1] switch to OnBalanceVolume [OBV] in lower window; [2] switch to SlowStochastic [and sometimes to FastStochastic if you want to be aggressive]; [3] switch to MACD; [4] and switch to Volume+. I rarely look at anything else except Volume Accumulation. EMA [exponential moving average] is altered from BC's default. Go to Indicators. Click the EMA 3-line and erase the 5 you should see, which is the default. Enter this line exactly, with the commas and no spaces: 3,7,10. You should see these numbers appear at the top or the chart after you click Draw Chart. You can insert any numbers you want, and, as I recall, up to six or seven numbers. I usually decrease the font in the left frame three or four times and the Price font once so I can see the volume. I look at a 1-mos chart out of habit. Then I look at a 5-day hourly chart to find support/resistance. I may or may not run all the indicators through the 5-day setting. You do get some radically different perspectives from intraday charts. I look especially for any positive divergence occurring in the last five days. If I can discern support/resistance on the 5-day, I go to the 1-day 5-minute chart to find an entry point. However, as an investor, you will want to find longer term positive divergences; once found, you go to the short term search for positive divergences to find a price to enter. I leave the Index set to None. Upper Indicators: Parabolic SAR. Don't sell this indicator short. Not exactly the right words. Don't ignore this indicator. It is designed to keep you in the market, either long or short, all the time. It tracks my EMA fairly closely. I have asked BC for the formula to no avail. It has a complicated formulation. Lower Indicators: MoneyFlow and OBV. Price Display: Always candles. Chart Background: Either Default or Three Tone. Three Tone wastes a lot of ink when you print. Some of the other displays are very colorful, However, sometimes when you print out a chart, the colors will print between gray, darker gray, and black. You can use up a printer head ink supply pretty quick when you print anything but black on white. When you find, on other sites, other color displays, you can usually do this to get away from using up your ink incredibly fast, and I mean fast: Edit/Select All/Copy. Then open up a word processor page and do this: Edit/Paste. This will usually alter the format to black and white, from which you can now print. You may also lose some formatting, for color pages are more complex than plain text and word processor formatting is more complicated than that allowed in most email. Chart Size: Click Large, and, depending on how large your fonts are, you may or may not be able to see the whole chart at once. If you can't see the whole chart, chose Medium or Small. And choose Store Settings. You can print from three locations: File/Print, Print from your upper status line, and Print Charts on the bottom right of the chart page. If you're not familiar with File/Print/Print Prevue become so. You get slightly different data when printing from Print in your status line and File/Print than you do from Print Charts. In the past I have had trouble with Print Charts after printing three or four pages; I no longer use it. I print out every chart [4-6 usually] because I see no way to include two or more lower charts on a single page. Another site with good charts is http://clearstation.com. And not to be forgotten is http://easystock.com. There you can get a chart in various time frames and six or seven indicators on the same page. You can set several indicators to your own numbers. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] SCNYB (for Marc) Date: 10 Jul 1999 23:14:06 -0400 Hi Marc, You get to be the "test" in my learning curve. I just found out how to attach a DGO chart, so don't have to describe the data in as much detail. Course, this will make the email way too large for Jeff's majordomo, so it will get delayed in delivery. Anyway. (Note: I actually wrote and sent this several days ago. Turned out I couldn't attach the files, they had to be uploaded separately and are now available by clicking below). ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/Scnyb1.w pd ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/Scnyb2.w pd First, understand there are two classes of common stock on this one, "A" and "B". You happen to mention the symbol for the B shares, for the A it is SCNYA. As it happens, the B shares have the much larger float (much smaller management holdings) yet are trading with higher up/down ratio (3.5 vs 2.5 for the A). Otherwise the fundies are the same, natch, and the charts look about the same. One cautionary for me is that the EPS of 77 is heavily fueled by the latest quarter, when earnings skyrocketed. Sales also grew nicely, but earnings were way out of proportion to sales growth. I would want to know more about this, and whether it can continue to be expected in the future. Here's a table of some of the ownership stats: A B issue 2.6 mil 3.5 mil mngmt 47% 14% float 1.4 mil 3.0 mil funds 51% 4% ADV 44,000 112,400 Looking at both the mngmt and funds ownership, I would want to know if there is something more attractive about the "A" shares compared to the "B" shares. Could just be they have been out there longer, but the bias is clear. On the other hand, if liquidity is an issue, then the "B" shares are better. A quick trip to the SEC site and a chat with Edgar might clear this up. Since the two charts are so similar, I am only attaching the two charts that make up DGO's presentation on SCNYB, as that's the one you asked about. If you want the two charts for SCNYA, let me know. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- I tried to send this yesterday, but it did not go through for some reason. What do people think of this as a canslim stock? ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, July 07, 1999 10:44 PM Take a look at SCNYB Over 30% rise preceding base cup and handle is short - about 5 weeks good price and volume action Great earnings increases good group Best wishes Marc Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] SCNYB Date: 10 Jul 1999 23:21:59 -0400 As a follow up, in viewing how the charts look on the upload I sent, I note that the earnings forecast didn't display clearly. The consensus forecast for 1999 is for $1.21, up 120%. For 2000, the consensus forecast is for $1.42 up 17%. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] SCNYB ftp files Date: 11 Jul 1999 08:42:10 +0100 Dear Tom, Thank you for setting this up. I downloaded the file and then was asked to open it. What program do I use for that? Great analysis on the stock you made too! Thanks, Marc - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] SCNYB ftp files Date: 11 Jul 1999 08:42:10 +0100 Dear Tom, Thank you for setting this up. I downloaded the file and then was asked to open it. What program do I use for that? Great analysis on the stock you made too! Thanks, Marc - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SCNYB ftp files Date: 11 Jul 1999 07:38:23 -0400 Hi Marc, The file was created in Word Perfect, any compatible word processor should be able to open it. My system automatically detects it as a text file and just opens it without asking for a program. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Dear Tom, Thank you for setting this up. I downloaded the file and then was asked to open it. What program do I use for that? Great analysis on the stock you made too! Thanks, Marc - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 11 Jul 1999 08:19:16 -0400 Did a very fast scan (about 20 minutes) of the 205 stocks on DGO's new list. Because of the haste, may have missed a few, but here's my margin notes: Bases, or starting to form bases: INCX, SHO, GAC, ADBE, WIZTF, HH, FFD, MTW, SCOR, CDI, ELK, AES, ATSN (the last two are utilities - ugghhhh!!) JAKK looks ready to rock and roll Saw quite a few of the LLUR style including SEBL and FDC (which is forming a base). There were some others that might also have qualified, but didn't take the time to examine them closely. Breakout on DY looks to have failed. SIND appears to be rolling over. Is anybody getting anything useful out of this list (either what I post or the full list for DGO subscribers)? Is my post any more useful than IBD's Weekend Review (for IBD subscribers)? Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 11 Jul 1999 09:57:23 -0700 Tom, love your list, wish I had the time & resources to act on it, but I've adopted a less intensive approach to my portfolio these days, only selling under the most dire of circumstances, hoping to get out of the churning which CANSLIM investing almost invariably leads to if followed strictly. Partly because of my disgust with the commissions I have paid over the past 2 years and partly because I have just moved into a 25 year old house on 2 acres with a barn and shop, and all four elements (house, barn, shop, property) are in need of a little (or a lot) of TLC. Thus all the pick lists are the most useful thing to me that is posted on this list bar none; wish Zacks hadn't dumped their Research Marvel application, since it is what I used to get my Killer CASLI list from. Believe it or not, after holding the techs and 'nuts through some incredible dips (AOL, ATHM, MSPG, SCH, NITE, ad nauseum) I am within a few percent of my all-time high in the accounts (albeit with the help of LU, MCD, and HH!) and my parents, who rarely sell anything, are at a new all-time high by a whopping margin as of Friday on the strength of techs and 'nuts (all they hold are these two categories and they are not diversified enough IMHO but hey whatever works!) which they have held through all the corrections the past few months. At 08:19 AM 7/11/99 -0400, you wrote: >Did a very fast scan (about 20 minutes) of the 205 stocks on >DGO's new list. Because of the haste, may have missed a few, >but here's my margin notes: > >Bases, or starting to form bases: INCX, SHO, GAC, ADBE, >WIZTF, HH, FFD, MTW, SCOR, CDI, ELK, AES, ATSN (the last two >are utilities - ugghhhh!!) > >JAKK looks ready to rock and roll > >Saw quite a few of the LLUR style including SEBL and FDC >(which is forming a base). There were some others that might >also have qualified, but didn't take the time to examine >them closely. > >Breakout on DY looks to have failed. SIND appears to be >rolling over. > >Is anybody getting anything useful out of this list (either >what I post or the full list for DGO subscribers)? > >Is my post any more useful than IBD's Weekend Review (for >IBD subscribers)? > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 11 Jul 1999 13:25:03 -0400 Tom, What you are doing has definitely been useful to me. Thanks for taking the time to do this. I am doing a scan similar to yours and usually try to reconcile your list with mine. For example, I took JAKK off my list yesterday for some reason. Now, I'll go back and take a second look. I really like the DGO list. I have made 5 buys since they started publishing this -- 3 of which have been successful.The DGO list is much more useful than IBD's, because you can look at the chart patterns at the same time as you review the fundamentals. Your list is good because it filters out stocks which have poor chart patterns. Thanks again, Hugh Tom Worley wrote: > Did a very fast scan (about 20 minutes) of the 205 stocks on > DGO's new list. Because of the haste, may have missed a few, > but here's my margin notes: > > Bases, or starting to form bases: INCX, SHO, GAC, ADBE, > WIZTF, HH, FFD, MTW, SCOR, CDI, ELK, AES, ATSN (the last two > are utilities - ugghhhh!!) > > JAKK looks ready to rock and roll > > Saw quite a few of the LLUR style including SEBL and FDC > (which is forming a base). There were some others that might > also have qualified, but didn't take the time to examine > them closely. > > Breakout on DY looks to have failed. SIND appears to be > rolling over. > > Is anybody getting anything useful out of this list (either > what I post or the full list for DGO subscribers)? > > Is my post any more useful than IBD's Weekend Review (for > IBD subscribers)? > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 11 Jul 1999 13:47:50 -0400 Tom, I went back and took another look at JAKK. I guess I need to be schooled here. What makes you say its ready to rock? Here's what I see: Broke out of a 4 week base on 6/30 on double average volume. Fell back to the pivot point of 29 the very next day on average volume. Has stayed within a point of 29 for the past 5 trading days on low volume. Is it the low volume, low volatility that says its about to move? How do you factor in the 6/30 breakout in this analysis? Thanks in advance. Hugh Hugh Fader wrote: > Tom, > > What you are doing has definitely been useful to me. Thanks for > taking the time to do this. I am doing a scan similar to yours > and usually try to reconcile your list with mine. For example, I > took JAKK off my list yesterday for some reason. Now, I'll go > back and take a second look. > > I really like the DGO list. I have made 5 buys since they started > publishing this -- 3 of which have been successful.The DGO list > is much more useful than IBD's, because you can look at the chart > patterns at the same time as you review the fundamentals. Your > list is good because it filters out stocks which have poor chart > patterns. > > Thanks again, > Hugh > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > Did a very fast scan (about 20 minutes) of the 205 stocks on > > DGO's new list. Because of the haste, may have missed a few, > > but here's my margin notes: > > > > Bases, or starting to form bases: INCX, SHO, GAC, ADBE, > > WIZTF, HH, FFD, MTW, SCOR, CDI, ELK, AES, ATSN (the last two > > are utilities - ugghhhh!!) > > > > JAKK looks ready to rock and roll > > > > Saw quite a few of the LLUR style including SEBL and FDC > > (which is forming a base). There were some others that might > > also have qualified, but didn't take the time to examine > > them closely. > > > > Breakout on DY looks to have failed. SIND appears to be > > rolling over. > > > > Is anybody getting anything useful out of this list (either > > what I post or the full list for DGO subscribers)? > > > > Is my post any more useful than IBD's Weekend Review (for > > IBD subscribers)? > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO list Date: 11 Jul 1999 19:13:08 +0100 Tom, I think your list is helpful so please continue! Regarding SEBL, it dropped a lot presumably because NEON, which is in a related area, did badly. There are also some bad rumours on the CFO from his previous jobs. I don't listen to rumours, but the stock did behave badly this week. CLFY is a smaller company than SEBL in a similar area (Front office). This is a gorilla game for those who have read the book and SEBL is the chief gorilla in the Front office, although Oracle and SAP are overall chief contenders. This months Red Herring describes Enterprise Resource Planning and Front Office in some detail if people want a further read. Also take a look at ACTU, BOBJ, NTAP and PEB. My analysis suggests that the following groups have both increasing RS and an increasing A/D for the stocks in DGO CONSUMER PRODUCTS-MISC ELEC-MILITARY SYSTEMS RETAIL-HOME FURNISHINGS HOUSEHOLD-AUDIO/VIDEO COMPUTER SOFTWR-ENTERPSE ELEC-SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIP Best wishes, Marc - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] File Date: 11 Jul 1999 20:25:06 +0100 Dear Tom, I managed to open the file successfully! Thanks, Marc - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO list Date: 11 Jul 1999 14:37:12 -0500 Tom, Yep. I find the list useful. Given that I don't have a lot of time to screen for stocks anymore, you've given me a shortcut. Next time I'm in Florida, I'll buy you a beer. Dave - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] "L" Date: 11 Jul 1999 14:41:53 -0500 For some reason, traffic on this board seems to be down a bit from, say, the 6-month average. So... I'm going to take this opportunity to pose an observation on the "L" in CANSLIM - and ask a question of the group. One of the hazards to picking the Leader in an industry, is that they oftentimes buy out competitors. This has the effect of depressing the stock price in the interim. It seems that usually, the stock bounces back, although it takes a while. Sometimes the merger/takeover doesn't go well, and the stock doesn't come back. Usually, one can get out - but sometimes, the street doesn't like the buyout, and the stock tanks quickly - and a 25% gain can turn into a loss overnight. I've been learning this the hard way lately.... I seem to have a higher than normal incidence of stocks that are Leaders that buy out a laggard, and then stall or fall. Is this noticeable to anyone else? Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] DSP looks like a cup and handle also Date: 11 Jul 1999 23:48:53 +0100 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] "L" Date: 12 Jul 1999 00:10:20 +0100 Dave, I have seen this occasionally. Incidentally, what method do you use to pick the leaders in groups that are rising in strength before it is obvious to everyone? Best, Marc ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, July 11, 1999 8:41 PM > For some reason, traffic on this board seems to be down a bit from, say, the > 6-month average. So... I'm going to take this opportunity to pose an > observation on the "L" in CANSLIM - and ask a question of the group. > > One of the hazards to picking the Leader in an industry, is that they oftentimes > buy out competitors. This has the effect of depressing the stock price in the > interim. It seems that usually, the stock bounces back, although it takes a > while. Sometimes the merger/takeover doesn't go well, and the stock doesn't > come back. Usually, one can get out - but sometimes, the street doesn't like > the buyout, and the stock tanks quickly - and a 25% gain can turn into a loss > overnight. > > I've been learning this the hard way lately.... I seem to have a higher than > normal incidence of stocks that are Leaders that buy out a laggard, and then > stall or fall. > > Is this noticeable to anyone else? > > Dave Cameron > dfcameron@ameritech.net > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 11 Jul 1999 21:43:20 -0400 Hi Hugh, The way I read the chart, and remember I only gave it about 8 seconds observation, tho did give it more tonight, it reached a new high of 29 1/8 in late May, and has been basing since. That gives it now nearly six weeks in a consolidation, pretty long for a stock that is showing LLUR (lower left, upper right) characteristics otherwise. With the volume dropping to the lowest level last week of all of the past six weeks, and yet the price remaining right at the high, it looks to me ready to make a move. And with the price remaining so high, I suspect the next move will be higher rather than lower. I did take a look at the rest of the CS elements tonight (when I reviewed the charts I was only looking at patterns since all were already screened for 80/80/etc. Those also look good, the only weakness I saw was that up/down ratio was "only" 1.1. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Tom, I went back and took another look at JAKK. I guess I need to be schooled here. What makes you say its ready to rock? Here's what I see: Broke out of a 4 week base on 6/30 on double average volume. Fell back to the pivot point of 29 the very next day on average volume. Has stayed within a point of 29 for the past 5 trading days on low volume. Is it the low volume, low volatility that says its about to move? How do you factor in the 6/30 breakout in this analysis? Thanks in advance. Hugh Hugh Fader wrote: > Tom, > > What you are doing has definitely been useful to me. Thanks for > taking the time to do this. I am doing a scan similar to yours > and usually try to reconcile your list with mine. For example, I > took JAKK off my list yesterday for some reason. Now, I'll go > back and take a second look. > > I really like the DGO list. I have made 5 buys since they started > publishing this -- 3 of which have been successful.The DGO list > is much more useful than IBD's, because you can look at the chart > patterns at the same time as you review the fundamentals. Your > list is good because it filters out stocks which have poor chart > patterns. > > Thanks again, > Hugh > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > Did a very fast scan (about 20 minutes) of the 205 stocks on > > DGO's new list. Because of the haste, may have missed a few, > > but here's my margin notes: > > > > Bases, or starting to form bases: INCX, SHO, GAC, ADBE, > > WIZTF, HH, FFD, MTW, SCOR, CDI, ELK, AES, ATSN (the last two > > are utilities - ugghhhh!!) > > > > JAKK looks ready to rock and roll > > > > Saw quite a few of the LLUR style including SEBL and FDC > > (which is forming a base). There were some others that might > > also have qualified, but didn't take the time to examine > > them closely. > > > > Breakout on DY looks to have failed. SIND appears to be > > rolling over. > > > > Is anybody getting anything useful out of this list (either > > what I post or the full list for DGO subscribers)? > > > > Is my post any more useful than IBD's Weekend Review (for > > IBD subscribers)? > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > - > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DSP looks like a cup and handle also Date: 11 Jul 1999 21:46:43 -0400 Could be, Marc, but so far you only have a possible cup. It's too early for a call on the handle, need another four or five weeks at the 30 level to see if this will work out. And with earnings due next week, I suspect the handle will not form, one way or another. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "L" Date: 11 Jul 1999 21:56:51 -0400 Hi Dave, Once again, my "bent perspective". The best buyout candidates are not the laggards, they are the up and coming future success stories. Bot out when their potential is just starting to develop means that the acquiring co gets a bargain, even if they have to pay a premium at the time. The nature of the buyout is also critical, a cash buyout by a co with a huge cash reserve has little effect on its price while a stock exchange buyout is usually seen as dilutive, even when its not. I usually follow the WON definition of leadership and consider only the top five in a group (based on RS) as "leaders". Of those, when I have seen a buyout, it was usually by a co with a lower RS, and often a lower EPS. Thus a decline in price by the acquiring co was usually logical, considering the usual and predictable non-recurring writeoffs by the acquiring co. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- For some reason, traffic on this board seems to be down a bit from, say, the 6-month average. So... I'm going to take this opportunity to pose an observation on the "L" in CANSLIM - and ask a question of the group. One of the hazards to picking the Leader in an industry, is that they oftentimes buy out competitors. This has the effect of depressing the stock price in the interim. It seems that usually, the stock bounces back, although it takes a while. Sometimes the merger/takeover doesn't go well, and the stock doesn't come back. Usually, one can get out - but sometimes, the street doesn't like the buyout, and the stock tanks quickly - and a 25% gain can turn into a loss overnight. I've been learning this the hard way lately.... I seem to have a higher than normal incidence of stocks that are Leaders that buy out a laggard, and then stall or fall. Is this noticeable to anyone else? Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Squires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 11 Jul 1999 21:28:51 -0500 Hugh, Hell, I'll answer this one because it's easy. Your exactly right! JAKK moved out of it's base on expanding volume, then tested it on light volume with contracting volatility. The low volume is a sign of lack of selling enthusiasm. The low volatility is a sign of price agreement between buyers and sellers. If you have a stock that is trending, such as JAKK, and these signs appear the benefit of the doubt must be given to the upside. That said, I would not buy this stock because the base is too short and the short-term upside seems limited. Good Trading DSquires Hugh Fader wrote: > > Tom, > > I went back and took another look at JAKK. I guess I need to be > schooled here. What makes you say its ready to rock? Here's what I > see: > > Broke out of a 4 week base on 6/30 on double average volume. > Fell back to the pivot point of 29 the very next day on average > volume. > Has stayed within a point of 29 for the past 5 trading days on low > volume. > > Is it the low volume, low volatility that says its about to move? How > do you factor in the 6/30 breakout in this analysis? > > Thanks in advance. > Hugh > > Hugh Fader wrote: > > > Tom, > > > > What you are doing has definitely been useful to me. Thanks for > > taking the time to do this. I am doing a scan similar to yours > > and usually try to reconcile your list with mine. For example, I > > took JAKK off my list yesterday for some reason. Now, I'll go > > back and take a second look. > > > > I really like the DGO list. I have made 5 buys since they started > > publishing this -- 3 of which have been successful.The DGO list > > is much more useful than IBD's, because you can look at the chart > > patterns at the same time as you review the fundamentals. Your > > list is good because it filters out stocks which have poor chart > > patterns. > > > > Thanks again, > > Hugh > > > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > > > Did a very fast scan (about 20 minutes) of the 205 stocks on > > > DGO's new list. Because of the haste, may have missed a few, > > > but here's my margin notes: > > > > > > Bases, or starting to form bases: INCX, SHO, GAC, ADBE, > > > WIZTF, HH, FFD, MTW, SCOR, CDI, ELK, AES, ATSN (the last two > > > are utilities - ugghhhh!!) > > > > > > JAKK looks ready to rock and roll > > > > > > Saw quite a few of the LLUR style including SEBL and FDC > > > (which is forming a base). There were some others that might > > > also have qualified, but didn't take the time to examine > > > them closely. > > > > > > Breakout on DY looks to have failed. SIND appears to be > > > rolling over. > > > > > > Is anybody getting anything useful out of this list (either > > > what I post or the full list for DGO subscribers)? > > > > > > Is my post any more useful than IBD's Weekend Review (for > > > IBD subscribers)? > > > > > > Tom Worley > > > stkguru@netside.net > > > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > > > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > > > - > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] "L" Date: 11 Jul 1999 21:54:06 -0500 Marc Laniado wrote: > > Dave, > I have seen this occasionally. > Incidentally, what method do you use to pick the leaders in groups that are > rising in strength before it is obvious to everyone? Marc, I don't usually succeed in picking the leaders in groups that are rising in strength very early. Since CANSLIM requires selecting 1.) leading stocks in 2.) leading industries with 3.) high RS on a 4.) breakout . . . These 4 make it tough to buy into a stock before lots of people have discovered it. One misses a lot of great stocks this way, but in theory, one increases the chances of not losing money. Of course, maybe if I bought in when they were great growth companies - BEFORE becoming truly CANSLIM, I could lock in a profit before these leaders bought out another company and tanked - but then its not really CANSLIM. Dave > Best, > Marc - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "L" Date: 11 Jul 1999 21:57:33 -0500 Tom Worley wrote: > > Hi Dave, > > Once again, my "bent perspective". The best buyout > candidates are not the laggards, they are the up and coming > future success stories. Bot out when their potential is just > starting to develop means that the acquiring co gets a > bargain, even if they have to pay a premium at the time. Thanks, Tom. Of course my latest knack has been for buying the acquirer and not the taken over company. By your definition, the company taken over may not be a laggard, just relative to the acquirer (which is usually a leader) it is. > The nature of the buyout is also critical, a cash buyout by a co > with a huge cash reserve has little effect on its price > while a stock exchange buyout is usually seen as dilutive, > even when its not. Unfortunately there's no way to predict this in advance, unless I'm missing something. A good CANSLIM company often opts to buy another via stock dilution since the strong RS gives them a favorable position (from what I've seen). > > I usually follow the WON definition of leadership and > consider only the top five in a group (based on RS) as > "leaders". My definition is a little narrower... only the top 3. Later, Dave - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] DSP looks like a cup and handle also Date: 12 Jul 1999 06:16:26 +0100 Tom, Do you really mean 4 or 5 weeks for the handle or 4 or 5 days? Thanks, Marc ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Monday, July 12, 1999 2:46 AM > Could be, Marc, but so far you only have a possible cup. > It's too early for a call on the handle, need another four > or five weeks at the 30 level to see if this will work out. > And with earnings due next week, I suspect the handle will > not form, one way or another. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Marc Laniado > To: canslim > Date: Sunday, July 11, 1999 6:49 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] DSP looks like a cup and handle also > > > > > > > > > - > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DSP looks like a cup and handle also Date: 12 Jul 1999 06:05:00 -0400 Hi Marc, Yes, I meant weeks, not days. To quote WON in HTMMIS on the formation of a c&h, "The forming of the handle area is usually more than one or two weeks in duration and preferably has a downward price drift or price shakeout" (p. 153, 1st edition). From WON's 26 week series he says this about the handle in a c&h (week nine): "Handles can be a short one or two weeks or a number of weeks longer and need to drift downward along their lows or have a shakeout (break below a prior week's low in the handle). This serves the purpose of getting a needed pullback or price correction out of the way. Proper handles rarely pull back in price more than 10% or 15% and will usually show either a marked dry- up in volume near their lows, which means there is no more selling coming into the stock, or they will have several tight areas where the price varies only a tiny amount and for several weeks may close virtually unchanged in price. This is a constructive signal. " So, in theory, a handle could be only one or two weeks long. But to get the kind of price action and diminishing volume he describes, I find a 1-2 week handle too short for confirmation of the pivot point. I prefer a handle long enough that two groups of owners (the ones that own from before the cup started to form, and the ones that bot at the bottom or right side of the cup) will conclude that they've gotten all they're going to get, and will sell. Once they're out of the way, there's little to prevent a successful breakout. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Tom, Do you really mean 4 or 5 weeks for the handle or 4 or 5 days? Thanks, Marc ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Monday, July 12, 1999 2:46 AM > Could be, Marc, but so far you only have a possible cup. > It's too early for a call on the handle, need another four > or five weeks at the 30 level to see if this will work out. > And with earnings due next week, I suspect the handle will > not form, one way or another. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Marc Laniado > To: canslim > Date: Sunday, July 11, 1999 6:49 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] DSP looks like a cup and handle also > > > > > > > > > - > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] JAKK Date: 12 Jul 1999 06:46:08 -0400 One further comment, the consensus forecast for Q2 (to be reported 7/22 per DGO) is for 23 cents compared to 14 cent in Q2 1998. The whisper number is 25 cents, same as they did in Q1 this year. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Pinakin Patel Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Pinakin Patel Date: 12 Jul 1999 14:34:28 +0100 Hi My name is Pinakin Patel, I live and work in London (United Kingdom). My experience in investing has been fairly limited to date! I invest (speculate!) in shares from time to time on the UK stock market. I generally deal throught an execution-only broker over the telephone. I have a PC and an internet connection, though I am not making much use of them. Unfortunately I've not yet had the chance to vist the mentioned Web Sites to get an overview of CANSLIM - so if this message is a bit pre-mature, please forgive me! I intend to buy the recommended book; "How to make money in stocks" soon as I can get a hold of a copy - but could someone tell me if this will be useful for investing in UK (I presume it will be!). I been reading the mail posted to this group for some time now, and I was wondering what would be the quickest way to: a) find out what the main procedure is and start following stocks b) what tools are required and where I can get hold of them Thanks Pinakin CRESTCo Ltd. The views expressed above are not necessarily those 33 Cannon Street. held by CRESTCo Limited. London EC4M 5SB (UK) +44 (0) 171 849 0000 http://www.crestco.co.uk - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Pinakin Patel Date: 12 Jul 1999 10:40:03 -0700 Pinakin, I'd start by: Reading the book Reviewing the 26 weeks to investing success at http://www.investors.com And, looking at their education modules. Buying IBD at reviewing the stocks recommended in the display chart section (with the caveat that they always list two) Creating a watch list of stocks and following it Peter Newell -----Original Message----- >Hi > >My name is Pinakin Patel, I live and work in London (United Kingdom). > >My experience in investing has been fairly limited to date! I invest (speculate!) in shares from time to time on the UK stock market. I generally deal throught an execution-only broker over the telephone. I have a PC and an internet connection, though I am not making much use of them. > >Unfortunately I've not yet had the chance to vist the mentioned Web Sites to get an overview of CANSLIM - so if this message is a bit pre-mature, please forgive me! I intend to buy the recommended book; "How to make money in stocks" soon as I can get a hold of a copy - but could someone tell me if this will be useful for investing in UK (I presume it will be!). > >I been reading the mail posted to this group for some time now, and I was wondering what would be the quickest way to: >a) find out what the main procedure is and start following stocks >b) what tools are required and where I can get hold of them > >Thanks > Pinakin > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >--------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- >CRESTCo Ltd. The views expressed above are not necessarily those >33 Cannon Street. held by CRESTCo Limited. >London EC4M 5SB (UK) >+44 (0) 171 849 0000 http://www.crestco.co.uk >--------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] RETAIL-APPAREL/SHOE GROUP Date: 12 Jul 1999 22:13:09 +0100 I thought this group typically did poorly in the summer I see PLCE is near its former high, a bit too quick in the right part of the cup and ANF is doing a cup and handle (loose - I'm sorry Tom!) AEOS has been advancing anyway from what I recollect. Please can I have the opinion of other CANSLIMers also! Thanks, Marc - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Carter Diggs Subject: [CANSLIM] Re DGO list Date: 12 Jul 1999 18:32:18 -0400 Tom, your DGO summaries are very useful. They give newbies a chance to see examples of good patterns rather than having to look at the entire (or a large portion) of the IBD weekend review and make judgements without knowing more experienced chartists interpretations. Please continue! Carter - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Pinakin Patel Date: 12 Jul 1999 23:48:06 -0400 Welcome to the group, Pinakin Peter already said pretty much what I would have suggested, esp the first two (read the book, and yes it applies in the UK) and read the 26 week series by WON as it updates the book. I recommend saving the series to disk (right click on each week and save) both so that you always have it available to study as well as to save telephone connection charges. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Pinakin, I'd start by: Reading the book Reviewing the 26 weeks to investing success at http://www.investors.com And, looking at their education modules. Buying IBD at reviewing the stocks recommended in the display chart section (with the caveat that they always list two) Creating a watch list of stocks and following it Peter Newell -----Original Message----- >Hi > >My name is Pinakin Patel, I live and work in London (United Kingdom). > >My experience in investing has been fairly limited to date! I invest (speculate!) in shares from time to time on the UK stock market. I generally deal throught an execution-only broker over the telephone. I have a PC and an internet connection, though I am not making much use of them. > >Unfortunately I've not yet had the chance to vist the mentioned Web Sites to get an overview of CANSLIM - so if this message is a bit pre-mature, please forgive me! I intend to buy the recommended book; "How to make money in stocks" soon as I can get a hold of a copy - but could someone tell me if this will be useful for investing in UK (I presume it will be!). > >I been reading the mail posted to this group for some time now, and I was wondering what would be the quickest way to: >a) find out what the main procedure is and start following stocks >b) what tools are required and where I can get hold of them > >Thanks > Pinakin > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >----------------------------------------------------------- ---------------- -- >CRESTCo Ltd. The views expressed above are not necessarily those >33 Cannon Street. held by CRESTCo Limited. >London EC4M 5SB (UK) >+44 (0) 171 849 0000 http://www.crestco.co.uk >----------------------------------------------------------- ---------------- -- > >- > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re DGO list Date: 13 Jul 1999 00:04:03 -0400 Carter, There are far better chart analysts in this group, and hopefully they will offer some differing opinions, as happened with JAKK to a limited degree (incidentally up over 5% today, but volume barely beat ADV). We all learn from discussion, both from the inexperienced and the seasoned. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Tom, your DGO summaries are very useful. They give newbies a chance to see examples of good patterns rather than having to look at the entire (or a large portion) of the IBD weekend review and make judgements without knowing more experienced chartists interpretations. Please continue! Carter - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Earl Setser" Subject: [CANSLIM] Earl's Watch List Date: 12 Jul 1999 22:16:09 -0700 Here is my watch list from the weekend. (Better late than never I guess!) I haven't had a chance to compare this to Tom's list, but there may be a few more ideas to look at. SFP ADVP AVTC BOBJ FDS FWRD KARE LGTO MXT OSSI ASTE INOC - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Level II Date: 13 Jul 1999 11:39:20 -0400 There is a free Level II window available at this site: http://www.isld.com/itchclient/javaversion.htm Your broker has to be associated with Island or you can't do the fast execution. This does not mean you can't make use of Island--just that the execution of your order must pass with the usual speed through your broker. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fw: SCNYB Date: 14 Jul 1999 13:15:55 GMT On Thu, 08 Jul 1999 14:42:24 -0400, you wrote: :Marc, : :I make the pivot to be 23 3/4. Buying range =3D 23 7/8 to about 26 1/4= (+10%). :I'd call it a 4 week base (very short). What a rocket of a stock - :surprised I had not noticed it before. It is up 150% since the last = base :(ran from 9 to 24). Certainly is in a hurry. QP2 doesn't show any = fundies :data, but it looks too late to me anyway - by a point or so (although it :may pull back for a second chance ala RFMD yesterday and early today). = It :is a fairly high risk stock due to the extraordinarily short base. =20 : :Don't they make tennis shoes? NKE has had a hard time there recently, = but :KSWS made a big run over the last few months. Certainly plenty of :competition in that business. I don't understand the big runs (is the = NKE :revenue swinging to the smaller competitors?) ... but the action speaks = for :itself. Nice chart. Probably a turnaround vis a vis the fundamentals (1 :out of 3 CS stocks are).=20 Saucony make athletic shoes. I've seen a lot of people wearing them around Berkeley, which is the kind of place you would see them, I guess. My impression is that they specialize in running shoes...that they are more of a serious athlete's shoe than say a Nike, and even an Addidas shoe these days. I think Addidas used to be more an athlete's shoe, but have moved bigger and more mainstream these days. That could just be my impression, though, as I am not haunting the tracks lately! I know, this isn't too much help on reading the chart, gentlemen.=20 I'm finding it precious hard to find any info on Saucony, besides the chart, which does look a bit precarious to me. Even Yahoo has no profile on them. However, it may continue its torrid pace (5 times appreciation since around Feb. 25 is pretty torrid, eh?). Dan : :I have not looked at the CS numbers since QP2 doesn't have them. But it :looks very promising if you caught it close to the base yesterday or day :before. Of course you never know. As a friend used to say "Its Your :Call". Good luck. : :Best Regards, :Craig : : :At 07:05 PM 7/8/99 +0100, you wrote: :>I tried to send this yesterday, but it did not go through for some = reason. :>What do people think of this as a canslim stock? :>----- Original Message ----- :>From: Marclaniado :>To: canslim :>Sent: Wednesday, July 07, 1999 10:44 PM :>Subject: SCNYB :> :> :>Take a look at SCNYB :>Over 30% rise preceding base :>cup and handle is short - about 5 weeks :>good price and volume action :>Great earnings increases :>good group :> :>Best wishes :>Marc :> :> :> :> :> :>- : : : :- : - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SCNYB Date: 14 Jul 1999 12:04:15 -0400 Hi Dan et al, Saucony make outstanding athletic shoes for serious runners. My wife runs 10k up to three times a week, and burns through 4 or more pairs of running shoes per year. Last year she converted to Saucony, and now she won't wear any other brand. She rates Adidas and Asics as ok, dislikes Reeboks and hates Nikes. The other folks in her running group are starting to like them too. Apparently these shoes provide the right amount of support, and prevent "over-pronation" while running (...don't ask). Have not investigated the company fundamentals. A weekly chart going back to the start of trading in '93 puts the current rise in perspective. The stock has completed an immense cup or saucer bottom, and is currently trading at 26,double its '93 high of 12 3/4. If I had caught this stock on the high volume breakout, my initial rough target would have been 12 3/4 + (12 3/4 - 3 3/4)= 21 3/4. This is just the depth of the saucer added to the breakout price. The technical indicators I follow gave an early sell signal on June 18. Walter Oakville, Ontario, Canada Dan Musicant wrote: > On Thu, 08 Jul 1999 14:42:24 -0400, you wrote: > > :Marc, > : > :I make the pivot to be 23 3/4. Buying range = 23 7/8 to about 26 1/4 (+10%). > :I'd call it a 4 week base (very short). What a rocket of a stock - > :surprised I had not noticed it before. It is up 150% since the last base > :(ran from 9 to 24). Certainly is in a hurry. QP2 doesn't show any fundies > :data, but it looks too late to me anyway - by a point or so (although it > :may pull back for a second chance ala RFMD yesterday and early today). It > :is a fairly high risk stock due to the extraordinarily short base. > : > :Don't they make tennis shoes? NKE has had a hard time there recently, but > :KSWS made a big run over the last few months. Certainly plenty of > :competition in that business. I don't understand the big runs (is the NKE > :revenue swinging to the smaller competitors?) ... but the action speaks for > :itself. Nice chart. Probably a turnaround vis a vis the fundamentals (1 > :out of 3 CS stocks are). > > Saucony make athletic shoes. I've seen a lot of people wearing them > around Berkeley, which is the kind of place you would see them, I guess. > My impression is that they specialize in running shoes...that they are > more of a serious athlete's shoe than say a Nike, and even an Addidas > shoe these days. I think Addidas used to be more an athlete's shoe, but > have moved bigger and more mainstream these days. That could just be my > impression, though, as I am not haunting the tracks lately! I know, this > isn't too much help on reading the chart, gentlemen. > > I'm finding it precious hard to find any info on Saucony, besides the > chart, which does look a bit precarious to me. Even Yahoo has no profile > on them. However, it may continue its torrid pace (5 times appreciation > since around Feb. 25 is pretty torrid, eh?). - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription Date: 15 Jul 1999 08:00:01 -0600 This is a monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are two remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group, or 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. To change your configuration, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@lists.xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: [CANSLIM] Connie, DELL. Date: 15 Jul 1999 19:06:49 -0400 (EDT) Hello, Connie- I appreciate your teachings on how to read BigCharts and the doubling principle. Have I learned anything? It takes awhile to learn how to prioritize the nuances. I think DELL made a run for the goal at day's end, but didn't make it. I don't think you are interested in chart patterns per se, but there is a tie in with your doubling principle presently as I see it (a little more later). DELL-positives: today on the intraday chart hourly; it closed near the high of the day on good volume. I interpret OBV and Money Flow to be positive. Also Parabolic SAR is positive. The negatives: turned back at resistance line ~44 1/8 a few times on Live!Charts PriceSales List. Has long term resistance in this area from late Feb on. Doubling principle 3/7 exists. MACD shows negative divergence indicating internal weakness. More long term - 3 month chart OBV, MF, MACD are positive. Doubling principle in effect. Possibly an inverted head and shoulder pattern setting up or cup with handle. A pull back would not be unexpected in view of doubling principle. TM _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DSP looks like a cup and handle also Date: 15 Jul 1999 20:40:13 -0400 Thanks for the caution on DSP Tom. I was looking at this at the same time as Marc and decided to hold off until after today. The stock took a dump today after earnings were announced. I think they met official estimates but missed the whisper number. Hugh Tom Worley wrote: > Hi Marc, > > Yes, I meant weeks, not days. > > To quote WON in HTMMIS on the formation of a c&h, "The > forming of the handle area is usually more than one or two > weeks in duration and preferably has a downward price drift > or price shakeout" (p. 153, 1st edition). From WON's 26 week > series he says this about the handle in a c&h (week nine): > > "Handles can be a short one or two weeks or a number of > weeks longer and need to drift downward along their lows or > have a shakeout (break below a prior week's low in the > handle). This serves the purpose of getting a needed > pullback or price correction out of the way. > > Proper handles rarely pull back in price more than 10% or > 15% and will usually show either a marked dry- up in volume > near their lows, which means there is no more selling coming > into the stock, or they will have several tight areas where > the price varies only a tiny amount and for several weeks > may close virtually unchanged in price. This is a > constructive signal. " > > So, in theory, a handle could be only one or two weeks long. > But to get the kind of price action and diminishing volume > he describes, I find a 1-2 week handle too short for > confirmation of the pivot point. I prefer a handle long > enough that two groups of owners (the ones that own from > before the cup started to form, and the ones that bot at the > bottom or right side of the cup) will conclude that they've > gotten all they're going to get, and will sell. Once they're > out of the way, there's little to prevent a successful > breakout. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > -----Original Message----- > From: Marc Laniado > To: canslim > Date: Monday, July 12, 1999 1:16 AM > Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] DSP looks like a cup and handle also > > Tom, > Do you really mean 4 or 5 weeks for the handle or 4 or 5 > days? > Thanks, > Marc > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Tom Worley > To: > Sent: Monday, July 12, 1999 2:46 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DSP looks like a cup and handle also > > > Could be, Marc, but so far you only have a possible cup. > > It's too early for a call on the handle, need another four > > or five weeks at the 30 level to see if this will work > out. > > And with earnings due next week, I suspect the handle will > > not form, one way or another. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: Marc Laniado > > To: canslim > > Date: Sunday, July 11, 1999 6:49 PM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] DSP looks like a cup and handle also > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DSP looks like a cup and handle also Date: 15 Jul 1999 22:59:15 -0400 Glad I was right on this, often a little scary to voice an opinion for fear of being way wrong. A 20% gap down like this will likely take some time to heal. TMBS at least stayed in the single digit drop on meeting estimates and missing the "whisper". How about that 20% gain in JAKK so far this week, tho. Can we say "rock and roll, baby"? (OK, OK, I gotta gloat when I'm on a roll, doesn't happen that often, now if I could only be as right on what I own or am watching!!!) Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Thanks for the caution on DSP Tom. I was looking at this at the same time as Marc and decided to hold off until after today. The stock took a dump today after earnings were announced. I think they met official estimates but missed the whisper number. Hugh Tom Worley wrote: > Hi Marc, > > Yes, I meant weeks, not days. > > To quote WON in HTMMIS on the formation of a c&h, "The > forming of the handle area is usually more than one or two > weeks in duration and preferably has a downward price drift > or price shakeout" (p. 153, 1st edition). From WON's 26 week > series he says this about the handle in a c&h (week nine): > > "Handles can be a short one or two weeks or a number of > weeks longer and need to drift downward along their lows or > have a shakeout (break below a prior week's low in the > handle). This serves the purpose of getting a needed > pullback or price correction out of the way. > > Proper handles rarely pull back in price more than 10% or > 15% and will usually show either a marked dry- up in volume > near their lows, which means there is no more selling coming > into the stock, or they will have several tight areas where > the price varies only a tiny amount and for several weeks > may close virtually unchanged in price. This is a > constructive signal. " > > So, in theory, a handle could be only one or two weeks long. > But to get the kind of price action and diminishing volume > he describes, I find a 1-2 week handle too short for > confirmation of the pivot point. I prefer a handle long > enough that two groups of owners (the ones that own from > before the cup started to form, and the ones that bot at the > bottom or right side of the cup) will conclude that they've > gotten all they're going to get, and will sell. Once they're > out of the way, there's little to prevent a successful > breakout. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > -----Original Message----- > From: Marc Laniado > To: canslim > Date: Monday, July 12, 1999 1:16 AM > Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] DSP looks like a cup and handle also > > Tom, > Do you really mean 4 or 5 weeks for the handle or 4 or 5 > days? > Thanks, > Marc > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Tom Worley > To: > Sent: Monday, July 12, 1999 2:46 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DSP looks like a cup and handle also > > > Could be, Marc, but so far you only have a possible cup. > > It's too early for a call on the handle, need another four > > or five weeks at the 30 level to see if this will work > out. > > And with earnings due next week, I suspect the handle will > > not form, one way or another. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: Marc Laniado > > To: canslim > > Date: Sunday, July 11, 1999 6:49 PM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] DSP looks like a cup and handle also > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > - > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: SKutney@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] SCNYA and general questions Date: 15 Jul 1999 23:46:30 EDT Hi, I just subscribed to this canslim list. I''ve been interested in the stock market for years but everytime I purchased a stock I lost money. I purchased the tapes and Bill O'neil's plus I have read several other books which offered similiar ideas but not packaged so well. I''ve purchased several stocks but I've allways get stopped out. Some of these stocks really shot down and others went back up. When I look at IBD I find so much data I get confused. It seems that I would do better if I had a short list. I want to get into a stock at a breakout and continue to stay in that stock for a year. What do you use in IBD to help you determine which stocks to buy? I think SCNYA was featured in the New America section of IBD. I noticed that the fund rank is "D". According to YAHOO 13.3% of the stock is owned by institutions. This seems like the type of stock that Bill O'neil and David Ryan talk about. The reason that the EPS and RS ranks are so high is because of the small float and decent earnings. Walter commented that his rough target would be 21 3/4. I don't understand what your calling the high volume breakout. I see higher relative volume during November 1998, March 99 and May 1999. Could you explain your formula of 12 3/4 + (12 3/4 - 3 3/4)? How important is the fund rank? I purchased Bell Fuse A (BELFA) because it was shown on a Friday issue of IBD as a stock that was being purchased by "A" rated funds. The institutional ownership was low. When I purchased the stock dropped like a rock. I get a feeling that some of these funds buy into some of these stocks to drum-up some interest. They then jump out. I've noticed the real "kiss of death" is an article in Barrons or CBS marketwatch.com. Thanks, Steve - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] DSP ACTU GICOF Date: 16 Jul 1999 06:29:13 +0100 Hi Hugh, Fortunately, I didn't buy DSP but I did buy ACTU on Monday at the open for $30 and rose to $38 points with a 100% earnings surprise. I probably should have sold, at the time (with the retrospectoscope) and now it is back in the base! (much to my chagrin!!). It seems many stocks are falling after good earnings, which I presume means that improvements in earnings have been factored in already. In HTMMIS, it says that stocks often fall back into the base after taking off and sometimes with big volume. Should we have confidence then still in these stocks falling back? - I thought possibly of buying GICOF as this took off and now has fallen back (on low volume compared to its rise). Good hunting, Marc - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] ADIC Date: 16 Jul 1999 06:52:22 +0100 First, a caveat, I know that channelling stocks are not CANSLIM. Computer memory devices are an improving group. ADIC has accelerating earnings and is in a channel. I read about these in Dr Elder's book after a useful recommendation. I have tried buying some channelling stock using the money management techniques in the book and it has proved successful. ADIC looks strong and bounces nicely off its lower channel. NTAP is sort of making a loose cup and handle also. Best wishes, Marc - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SCNYA and general questions Date: 16 Jul 1999 09:48:55 -0700 Steve, I'll give this a shot. > I just subscribed to this canslim list. I''ve been interested in the stock >market for years but everytime I purchased a stock I lost money. I purchased >the tapes and Bill O'neil's plus I have read several other books which >offered similiar ideas but not packaged so well. > > I''ve purchased several stocks but I've allways get stopped out. Some of >these stocks really shot down and others went back up. Have you reviewed your purchases and figured out why. Sometimes I getted stopped out like crazy because I buy when the markets cooling off a bit. Sometimes all my stocks go up, and its because I bought right when the market was moving. I haven't figured out how to tell the difference yet but at least I know why. Sometimes my stock purchases are too extended and when I get the test back to the base I sell to soon this is something I can fix. Most of the time I get a big winner and sell to soon. Dell in 97 good example chart like EMC and I got spooked in a very normal correction and sold it. It went up 5x from there. Still made money which is the name of the game. Also, its okay to repurchase. > When I look at IBD I find so much data I get confused. It seems that I >would do better if I had a short list. I want to get into a stock at a >breakout and continue to stay in that stock for a year. What do you use in >IBD to help you determine which stocks to buy? Could be hard with just IBD. But I would create a short list or watch list. The stocks they pick in the display chart section generally do good and may be a good way to build a watch list. Last week their picks for Mon-Wed were up 6% on avg I'm trying to track this better. First, I'd start with higher priced stocks in the $29 and up range much safer. Then I'd look for good fundamental stories with good techinical stories, EMC is an example where it hasn't broken out yet, unfortunately this indicates weakness also. but it still has a strong chart up over 100% since October and its correction was down to around a 98% gain. Stock is behaving admirably although not as well as Qualcomm or QLGC. > > I think SCNYA was featured in the New America section of IBD. I noticed >that the >fund rank is "D". According to YAHOO 13.3% of the stock is owned by >institutions. >This seems like the type of stock that Bill O'neil and David Ryan talk about. >The reason that the EPS and RS ranks are so high is because of the small >float and decent earnings. Walter commented that his rough target would be >21 3/4. I don't >understand what your calling the high volume breakout. I see higher relative >volume >during November 1998, March 99 and May 1999. Could you explain your formula >of 12 3/4 + (12 3/4 - 3 3/4)? > >How important is the fund rank? I purchased Bell Fuse A (BELFA) because it was >shown on a Friday issue of IBD as a stock that was being purchased by "A" >rated >funds. The institutional ownership was low. When I purchased the stock >dropped like a rock. I get a feeling that some of these funds buy into some >of these stocks to drum-up some interest. They then jump out. I've noticed >the real "kiss of death" is an article in Barrons or CBS marketwatch.com. I'd be leary of stocks with low inst sponorship as a beginner. Tom seems to be able to pick the low priced small caps, I'm not as adept and stay away. The big factors are market direction, group strength, stock strength. DLJ staged a picture perfect breakout in Feb. After reviewing stock, it was readily apparent that it was a significant laggard since etrade and Schwab had gone up dramatically in Oct-Jan. So now I know what I have a short-term breakout and plan on getting out at first sign of trouble , went up 50% and came right back down. Peter - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Connie, DELL. Date: 15 Jul 1999 21:45:46 -0400 Evening Ed-- Looks to me that you've got all the readings in hand. [I'm looking at BigCharts. I do find that MF has big variations, depending on what site you're reading.] There does appear a near presence of the Doubling P on the 2-month chart. However, take a look at the MACD. It is damn strong and may hint that there is another day or so on the upside. Stochastics looks a bit over bought. On the 1-day chart, there is a slight negative divergence on the MACD. It may be a bit tricky until you can see what price does tomorrow. Another big house giving a buy would probably assure a nice rise. And once through that 46 congestion, there is room to really move. Are you day trading DELL, short term trading, or investing? Might take a look at FHS. I'm anticipating an EMA buy in a day or so. May try a little before the EMA goes buy. WCS and SORC have some promise. I do pay attention to trendlines. When they appear in conjunction with other indicators, there is strength in the decision to buy or sell. No trader ignores the power of trend lines. You might draw a few on SORC. WCS is less amenable to good lines. Thanks for the mail. Connie TM wrote: > Hello, Connie- > > I appreciate your teachings on how to read BigCharts and the doubling principle. Have I learned > anything? It takes awhile to learn how to prioritize the nuances. > > I think DELL made a run for the goal at day's end, but didn't make it. I don't think you are > interested in chart patterns per se, but there is a tie in with your doubling principle presently > as I see it (a little more later). > > DELL-positives: today on the intraday chart hourly; it closed near the high of the day on good > volume. I interpret OBV and Money Flow to be positive. Also Parabolic SAR is positive. > > The negatives: turned back at resistance line ~44 1/8 a few times on Live!Charts PriceSales List. > Has long term resistance in this area from late Feb on. Doubling principle 3/7 exists. MACD > shows negative divergence indicating internal weakness. > > More long term - 3 month chart OBV, MF, MACD are positive. Doubling principle in effect. > Possibly an inverted head and shoulder pattern setting up or cup with handle. A pull back would > not be unexpected in view of doubling principle. > > TM > > _________________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DSP ACTU GICOF Date: 16 Jul 1999 11:00:06 -0400 Marc, At 06:29 AM 7/16/99 +0100, you wrote: >Hi Hugh, >Fortunately, I didn't buy DSP but I did buy ACTU on Monday at the open for >$30 and rose to $38 points with a 100% earnings surprise. I probably should >have sold, at the time (with the retrospectoscope) and now it is back in the >base! (much to my chagrin!!). I do not consider ACTU to have completely fallen back into the base, but rather to be retesting its break out. I read the chart as follows: Base begins 03/31/99. Cup with handle forms. Handle part begins on 06/30/99, ends 07/09/99. Buy point (pivot) is 27 5/8 (high point of handle is 27 1/2 set on 06/30, so just add 1/8 to that). The few days of trading above 27 1/2 back at the beginning of the base serve as a little resistance. So the buying range is 27 5/8 up to about 30 1/4 (10%). Notice that it tends to like to sit at the top of the buying range on the pullback (although it does dip into the buying range at times). It had a huge breakout with volume and has now retraced. No big deal unless your stop gets hit. There is a fairly good chance here that it will tighten up and move on from here. If you have a small position, I would simply use 27 5/8 as my stop (if it closes or looks like it will close below 27 5/8 near the end of the day - sell). If you have a larger position, you might want to use 27 7/8 as your stop (also on a closing or looks to close basis). >It seems many stocks are falling after good >earnings, which I presume means that improvements in earnings have been >factored in already. They often jump and then pullback (on lower volume preferably). Take a look a BGEN. It got hit hard the day of and day after earnings (which were 2 cents better than estimates). Here it is a week later, and it is hitting new all time highs. Also, a lot of times, institutions will use this opportunity to lock in profits when they know there are lots of buyers (on good news). That way they can reduce or eliminate big positions when there is demand and the price is not driven down so much by their selling. Sometimes the reason is as benign as they wish to diversify, or they think they see a better opportunity elsewhere. Needless to say, they are probably not using Canslim ;). >In HTMMIS, it says that stocks often fall back into the base after taking >off and sometimes with big volume. Should we have confidence then still in >these stocks falling back? Please note that WON also says that often the big volume pullbacks are "emotional or uninformed sellars" (not willing to look for the page reference right now - or did he say it at a seminar ...). I think he means that, if you get a breakout on say 3 times normal volume and then in the next day or so you get a pullback on 2 1/2 times normal volume, that may not be a bad sign (or then again it may, but in and of itself, such action is merely cautionary and not overly significant). My theory is that WON has it WRONG on one thing (at least). Most investors are not psychologically made up to hold 4 positions (25% of equity in each position). And in today's market there are plenty of good stocks out there (I count around 50 breakouts recently, 25 of which I would not mind owning). There is extra monitoring effort and paperwork with 10 positions or 12 positions or 8 positions. And it is harder to get out and out of 12 positions (takes more time to buy and sell, whereas as WON points out with 4 positions, if the mkt gives a sell signal, sell 1 position and you are 25% out of mkt. With 12 positions, you must sell 3 of them to get same result). But for me, all this is worth it, because I don't get so worried when one continually retests my stop, because, I will typically have 6 or 7 positions where I am "in the clear", and 1 or 2 positions that are "worrying me", and 1 or 2 that are "about to get clear". Of course a couple of the 6 or 7 positions may be a worry in case they are giving a sell signal (per WON's selling rules) on their own. So I may be closely watching 12 stocks and monitoring 10 or 20 for new buys. But it is really not all that time consuming and I sleep so much better at night. In some ways, I think Tim is exactly right when he says he does not like to monitor his stocks intra-day, cause he then just tends to overtrade (paraphrasing). Hope this helps. Best Regards, Craig PS. In the interest of full disclosure: I have a very small position in ACTU. - I thought possibly of buying GICOF as this took >off and now has fallen back (on low volume compared to its rise). >Good hunting, >Marc > > > >- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: [CANSLIM] Walter Stock Date: 16 Jul 1999 12:21:02 -0700 Walter please send me a note with current address. I would like to ask an Elder question. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Chris Hudson Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Walter Stock Date: 16 Jul 1999 14:35:51 -0500 I read the on-line reviews of Elder's book at amazon.com and it seems to be very popular. Anyone on the list have an opinion of it? -- Chris > -----Original Message----- > From: Dan Cash [mailto:dcash@compuall.net] > Sent: Friday, July 16, 1999 2:21 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Walter Stock > > > Walter please send me a note with current address. I would > like to ask > an Elder question. > > Dan > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Walter Stock Date: 16 Jul 1999 14:43:46 -0500 (CDT) I have read MOST of it, and studied selected parts intensively. One of my trading partners has developed a trading system based on rules from Elder's work using the ValueLine 100 universe. This is a live test of the system and refinements are being ocassionally added. It is working pretty well, he is pleased with the results. If the testing works out as well as expected, he and I plan to submit a manuscript for publication that describes the rule set, and its results. Unemotional investing appeals to both of to a tremendous degree, and this system, as a rules based system, is very unemotional. Now, it has little or nothing to do with CANSLIM. CANSLIM stocks are candidates to be managed using the rules outlined in Dr Elder's book. His text works equally well with stocks, bonds, options, futures, and commodities. Robert On Fri, 16 Jul 1999 14:35:51 -0500, Chris Hudson wrote: > I read the on-line reviews of Elder's book at amazon.com and it seems to be >very popular. Anyone on the list have an opinion of it? > -- Chris > > >> -----Original Message----- >> From: Dan Cash [mailto:dcash@compuall.net] >> Sent: Friday, July 16, 1999 2:21 PM >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Subject: [CANSLIM] Walter Stock >> >> >> Walter please send me a note with current address. I would >> like to ask >> an Elder question. >> >> Dan >> >> >> - >> > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Connie, DELL. Date: 16 Jul 1999 16:34:08 -0400 (EDT) Thank you for the comments on Dell. You asked, "Are you day trading DELL, short term trading, or investing?" Trying to invest, but it hasn't worked quite right. I bought some in the 43ish area (adjusted) before the split. I've held that through thick and thin. I've bought low and sold several times since then when the resistance was in the 40s and a couple of times more recently selling at the 43ish resistance. A bonus is I have been able to get more shares every time with the profits. As far as cash in the bank, next to PCLN (not CANSLIM for sure), DELL has been my most lucrative stock. I haven't traded PCLN since the IPO days. I like volatility and try and leave while the party is still going on since I don't have Level II quotes etc. I consider my exit strategy weak in general. I sell either when the price starts dropping or resistance stops the price movement. The indicators don't seem as clear for selling as for buying. I appreciate all your comments and the many site references. TM --- Connie Mack Rea wrote: > Evening Ed-- > > Looks to me that you've got all the readings in hand. [I'm looking at BigCharts. I do find that > MF > has big variations, depending on what site you're reading.] > > There does appear a near presence of the Doubling P on the 2-month chart. However, take a look > at the > MACD. It is damn strong and may hint that there is another day or so on the upside. > Stochastics > looks a bit over bought. > > On the 1-day chart, there is a slight negative divergence on the MACD. It may be a bit tricky > until > you can see what price does tomorrow. > > Another big house giving a buy would probably assure a nice rise. And once through that 46 > congestion, there is room to really move. > > Are you day trading DELL, short term trading, or investing? > > Might take a look at FHS. I'm anticipating an EMA buy in a day or so. May try a little before > the > EMA goes buy. > > WCS and SORC have some promise. > > I do pay attention to trendlines. When they appear in conjunction with other indicators, there > is > strength in the decision to buy or sell. No trader ignores the power of trend lines. You might > draw > a few on SORC. WCS is less amenable to good lines. > > Thanks for the mail. > > Connie > > > > > > > TM wrote: > > > Hello, Connie- > > > > I appreciate your teachings on how to read BigCharts and the doubling principle. Have I > learned > > anything? It takes awhile to learn how to prioritize the nuances. > > > > I think DELL made a run for the goal at day's end, but didn't make it. I don't think you are > > interested in chart patterns per se, but there is a tie in with your doubling principle > presently > > as I see it (a little more later). > > > > DELL-positives: today on the intraday chart hourly; it closed near the high of the day on good > > volume. I interpret OBV and Money Flow to be positive. Also Parabolic SAR is positive. > > > > The negatives: turned back at resistance line ~44 1/8 a few times on Live!Charts PriceSales > List. > > Has long term resistance in this area from late Feb on. Doubling principle 3/7 exists. MACD > > shows negative divergence indicating internal weakness. > > > > More long term - 3 month chart OBV, MF, MACD are positive. Doubling principle in effect. > > Possibly an inverted head and shoulder pattern setting up or cup with handle. A pull back > would > > not be unexpected in view of doubling principle. > > > > TM > > > > _________________________________________________________ > > Do You Yahoo!? > > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > > - > > > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DSP ACTU GICOF Date: 16 Jul 1999 17:28:21 -0400 Just re-read my reply, and there are probably several things that need clarification - but there is one that I want to address (y'all ask me if there is something else that seems fuzzy). I wrote: >>In HTMMIS, it says that stocks often fall back into the base after taking >>off and sometimes with big volume. Should we have confidence then still in >>these stocks falling back? >Please note that WON also says that often the big volume pullbacks are >"emotional or uninformed sellars" (not willing to look for the page >reference right now - or did he say it at a seminar ...). I think he means >that, if you get a breakout on say 3 times normal volume and then in the >next day or so you get a pullback on 2 1/2 times normal volume, that may >not be a bad sign (or then again it may, but in and of itself, such action >is merely cautionary and not overly significant). What I meant with the above, is that even if the stock does a retracement of the breakout on high volume - the stock may be still be ok if it does not pull back into the base. If it actually pulls back into the base, I nearly always sell half to protect my self. This assumes that my stop is even lower than the top of the base. If it hits my stop, I sell all, regardless. In the original post, Marc said that HTMMIS says that stocks returning to their base (on high volume) are a breakout failure (to paraphrase). I did not mean to disagree with that statement. I meant to add that sometimes they pull back on high volume and retest the top of the base before advancing. So a high volume retest does not necessarily generate a sell. But a high volume retest that returns to below the pivot point (ie. the retest actually penetrates the base and closes within the base) always is cause to sell half a position. This is a doubly confusing point because I am reading the pivot for ACTU as about 10% below the absolute top of the base. This is not unusual. Hope this makes some sense. Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 16 Jul 1999 17:10:29 -0500 (CDT) Tom, Yes, yes, your list is extremely useful, especially your chart readings on the stocks. Thanks, Mary Is anybody getting anything useful out of this list (either what I post or the full list for DGO subscribers)? Is my post any more useful than IBD's Weekend Review (for IBD subscribers)? Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] "L" Date: 16 Jul 1999 17:17:44 -0500 (CDT) Dave, No, I haven't noticed this. Would you name a few leaders who have bought laggards? Thanks, Mary Is this noticeable to anyone else? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Connie, DELL. Date: 16 Jul 1999 18:31:53 -0400 For EDMalone [and others]. I believe you can get free Level II quotes at: http://www.isld.com/itchclient/javaversion.htm As I recall, the site advertises real time numbers. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "L" Date: 16 Jul 1999 23:04:25 -0500 Mary, Well... a recent example is ADCT (buying SAVLY). There are other companies, such as QWST, which aren't CANSLIM - but are leaders in the whole telecommunications expansion who've decided to buy U.S. West... I own both. ADCT as a pure CANSLIM play. QWST on the "David Ryan" theory that the RS of the group is up, the companies are growing business, but profits aren't there yet. Biotech was the same way about 10 years ago. I've had a couple others on my watch list (ARSW comes to mind - now trading at HYSL after buying HYSW) that I didn't buy - but noticed the leader buying laggard. Unfortunately its been several days since I posted the comment - and I don't have my notes. Thanks, Dave mckeen@ix.netcom.com wrote: > > Dave, > > No, I haven't noticed this. Would you name > a few leaders who have bought laggards? > > Thanks, > Mary > > Is this noticeable to anyone else? > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SCNYA and general questions Date: 16 Jul 1999 23:09:48 -0500 I'll try my 2 cents: SKutney@aol.com wrote: > > Hi, > > I just subscribed to this canslim list. I''ve been interested in the stock > market for years but everytime I purchased a stock I lost money. I purchased > the tapes and Bill O'neil's plus I have read several other books which > offered similiar ideas but not packaged so well. Everytime! Wow - seems you have a talent. Why not just take your method and reverse it? This is partly tongue-in-cheek, but partly serious. If you've lost money on every purchase, and turn your buy/sell rules upside down, you may make money on most purchases. > > I''ve purchased several stocks but I've allways get stopped out. Some of > these stocks really shot down and others went back up. I've had the same problem. I've found that even if you pick the perfect buy point on a good CANSLIM stock, you'll only make money 50% of the time. The key is to make more money on the winners than you lose on the losers... > > When I look at IBD I find so much data I get confused. It seems that I > would do better if I had a short list. I want to get into a stock at a > breakout and continue to stay in that stock for a year. What do you use in > IBD to help you determine which stocks to buy? I look at the 'Stocks in the News' section. > > I think SCNYA was featured in the New America section of IBD. I noticed > that the > fund rank is "D". According to YAHOO 13.3% of the stock is owned by > institutions. > This seems like the type of stock that Bill O'neil and David Ryan talk about. > The reason that the EPS and RS ranks are so high is because of the small > float and decent earnings. Walter commented that his rough target would be > 21 3/4. I don't > understand what your calling the high volume breakout. I see higher relative > volume > during November 1998, March 99 and May 1999. Could you explain your formula > of 12 3/4 + (12 3/4 - 3 3/4)? > > How important is the fund rank? I purchased Bell Fuse A (BELFA) because it was > shown on a Friday issue of IBD as a stock that was being purchased by "A" > rated > funds. The institutional ownership was low. When I purchased the stock > dropped like a rock. I get a feeling that some of these funds buy into some > of these stocks to drum-up some interest. They then jump out. I've noticed > the real "kiss of death" is an article in Barrons or CBS marketwatch.com. Astute. Once a stock gets written up - its run is generally over. As far as fund rank - it depends. If a LOT of 'A' funds are in it - it may be too late. If a few 'A' funds are in it, and very few 'B', 'C' etc., you have a much better chance. Good luck, Dave Cameron dfcameron@ameritech.net > > Thanks, > Steve > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] On "M" Date: 17 Jul 1999 06:32:30 -0400 Just finished a more leisurely than usual scroll thru the Daily Graphs list of stocks at or within 5% of new highs, and want to share some thoughts. On June 30, I posted and commented on a quote from Infobeat that reflected the fear of further Fed rate hikes, and assumed that then upcoming economic reports would be crucial. My opinion then and now is that the Fed Reserve Board is forward looking, and as best as I can determine, out to about nine months currently. I did not then, nor now, view upcoming reports as having any effect on immediate action (e.g. the upcoming August meeting by FOMC) by the Feds. Recent economic reports (last week's CPI being only the latest in a series) clearly shows that inflation remains a non-event, and from media comments I have picked up the short term fear of further rate hikes is abating. At this point, I do not expect any action by the Feds at their next meeting (either a rate hike as feared or even a shift in bias). The mkt is currently responding both to this lessening of fears, as well as the realization of the forecasts of a strong earnings reporting cycle. This pattern will likely continue for the next week to two weeks. Meanwhile, there is also profit taking occurring, offset for now by the fresh buying. Once the earnings reports begin to dwindle, I would expect some continued pressure from profit taking, but no longer being offset so well by fresh buying. VIX has moved nicely under 20, so I suspect we are beginning to enter a healthy period for CANSLIMers. In reviewing the list from DGO (no surprise, it grew again), I could not help but note that there were very few bases longer than two weeks. And any longer was suspect given the state of "M". Laggards at this point deserve much closer examination than usual. Once we pass the bulk of the earnings cycle, I believe we will have a better opportunity to see a higher quality of CANSLIM opportunities as true leadership again asserts itself. As I suggested some months ago, we are having a very nice and unusual summer rally, and one justified IMHO. August may prove to be somewhat boring, but likely to set the stage for a strong market in the fall. It's time to reread HTMMIS, the online 26 week series, and hone your investing skills. I will post my margin comments on the DGO list shortly. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 17 Jul 1999 06:56:19 -0400 As I mentioned in an earlier post on "M", the bases I see this morning are mostly short, usually no more than two weeks. It was difficult finding many good charts despite the list expanding to 223 stocks as the better ones had already made a move. I did not note the ones with only a one week base, DSP being a recent example of why. Where the base was over two weeks, I tried to note that as laggards in current "M" should be examined more closely. Here's what I noted: Bases: MSS, CHKP (staircase), NTAP, OCLI, ORCL, HOTT, CTS, SIND, WIZTF (tight base, buyout??), BBOX (b/o starting?), HH (long base), GPS, DTM (amex, small cap, a la MSS?), STER (long base), ALTR, CHEZ (failed b/o, small cap), PTIX (small cap), MEDQ, TYC, USFC, FFD (long base, fundies flat), CDI (long base, CFO quit unexpectedly, flat fundies), WGO, BSX, ELK, TCAT, FULL. Other ones and comments: CHRX - breakout imminent? opinions welcomed URBN - nice handle to the cup? opinions welcomed I will be spending part of the weekend trying to catch up on my daily lists of new highs, searching for some that DG doesn't yet have in the books. If I see anything attractive, I'll post it. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DSP ACTU GICOF Date: 17 Jul 1999 07:47:19 -0700 CHURNing is what I called it. E.g. LU: I am in at 61 in March, it dropped to the low 50's about April 20th on a "panic attack"; it's now at 78. If I had put a stop on it at a 15% loss I would have been out on an intraday basis (opened low and closed up 10% from that price). If I remember correctly it was just reaction to a general report on the tech sector being overvalued. At 11:00 AM 7/16/99 -0400, you wrote: >In some ways, I think Tim is exactly right when he says he does not like to >monitor his stocks intra-day, cause he then just tends to overtrade >(paraphrasing). Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] TTIL Date: 18 Jul 1999 12:29:16 +0100 TTIL gapped up on Friday to 13 1/2. I own this and am wondering if this is healthy midterm gap or not. Any other opinions? There is something about a conference call coming or something like that, but no other news I know. Marc - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 17 Jul 1999 23:37:01 EDT Hello All: Here are the latest Acc/Dis Numbers: Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 7/1/1999 1433 2854 1248 848 298 64% 4% 7/2/1999 1558 2861 1192 820 263 66% 4% 7/6/1999 1528 2907 1202 804 252 66% 4% 7/7/1999 1560 2946 1176 780 256 67% 4% 7/8/1999 1589 2946 1125 797 257 68% 4% 7/9/1999 1542 2955 1188 788 263 67% 4% 7/12/1999 1539 2894 1229 788 268 66% 4% 7/13/1999 1598 2906 1183 788 257 67% 4% 7/14/1999 1605 2928 1152 796 266 67% 4% 7/15/1999 1556 2968 1176 784 282 67% 4% 7/16/1999 1601 2938 1195 762 275 67% 4% 7/19/1999 1665 2950 1179 699 274 68% 4% Spreedsheet version: Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 7/1/1999,1433,2854,1248,848,298,64%,4% 7/2/1999,1558,2861,1192,820,263,66%,4% 7/6/1999,1528,2907,1202,804,252,66%,4% 7/7/1999,1560,2946,1176,780,256,67%,4% 7/8/1999,1589,2946,1125,797,257,68%,4% 7/9/1999,1542,2955,1188,788,263,67%,4% 7/12/1999,1539,2894,1229,788,268,66%,4% 7/13/1999,1598,2906,1183,788,257,67%,4% 7/14/1999,1605,2928,1152,796,266,67%,4% 7/15/1999,1556,2968,1176,784,282,67%,4% 7/16/1999,1601,2938,1195,762,275,67%,4% 7/19/1999,1665,2950,1179,699,274,68%,4% Later Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 18 Jul 1999 21:34:55 +0100 Tom, Memory device groups have been doing really well esp ADIC. DRAM from what I can see has only 4% institutional sponsorship and 20% management ownership. It has made a cup over 6 months and maybe a handle few weeks ago.Its earnings are due in a few weeks. This looks quite attractive, but I would be interested in knowing whether people feel it has made a genuine handle? What do we think the buy point is now? Marc ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, July 17, 1999 11:56 AM > As I mentioned in an earlier post on "M", the bases I see > this morning are mostly short, usually no more than two > weeks. It was difficult finding many good charts despite the > list expanding to 223 stocks as the better ones had already > made a move. I did not note the ones with only a one week > base, DSP being a recent example of why. Where the base was > over two weeks, I tried to note that as laggards in current > "M" should be examined more closely. Here's what I noted: > > Bases: > MSS, CHKP (staircase), NTAP, OCLI, ORCL, HOTT, CTS, SIND, > WIZTF (tight base, buyout??), BBOX (b/o starting?), HH (long > base), GPS, DTM (amex, small cap, a la MSS?), STER (long > base), ALTR, CHEZ (failed b/o, small cap), PTIX (small cap), > MEDQ, TYC, USFC, FFD (long base, fundies flat), CDI (long > base, CFO quit unexpectedly, flat fundies), WGO, BSX, ELK, > TCAT, FULL. > > Other ones and comments: > > CHRX - breakout imminent? opinions welcomed > URBN - nice handle to the cup? opinions welcomed > > I will be spending part of the weekend trying to catch up on > my daily lists of new highs, searching for some that DG > doesn't yet have in the books. If I see anything attractive, > I'll post it. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] New BigCharts. [Connie Mack] Date: 18 Jul 1999 20:38:27 -0400 BigCharts has made some changes. I have civilly complained that having a single screen at the bottom drove my faculty group crazy. BC has added two more screens, added new stuff under "Industries," and made some other nominal changes. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Walter Stock Date: 18 Jul 1999 10:55:44 -0400 Hi Dan, I still use Elder on a daily basis and combine his material with WON. I have been doing a lot of backtesting of his systems using my AIQ software as well. My best example is how his approach got me out of the market last summer just prior to the meltdown. Elder's Triple Screen (using weekly data) issued a market sell signal on the DJIA, the SPX, and the NASDAQ on the week of 07/24/98. My address is wstock@cgocable.net. Anything that is pure Elder (i.e. non-Canslim at all) should come to me privately. I am more than happy to share results with anyone from our group. Walter Oakville, Ontario, Canada Dan Cash wrote: > Walter please send me a note with current address. I would like to ask > an Elder question. > > Dan > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Walter Stock Date: 18 Jul 1999 11:09:52 -0400 Hi Chris, Elder's book "Trading for a Living"and WON's book are the two best works on investing and trading that I have read. They both reward careful study and re-reading. I *highly recommend* purchase of the Study Guide for Elder's work as well, because it expands on the material in the book. The tests in the study guide also help you determine whether you have really assimilated the material, or whether you need to go back and do more homework prior to using his approaches in your live trading. Walter Oakville, Ontario, Canada Chris Hudson wrote: > I read the on-line reviews of Elder's book at amazon.com and it seems to be > very popular. Anyone on the list have an opinion of it? > -- Chris > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: Dan Cash [mailto:dcash@compuall.net] > > Sent: Friday, July 16, 1999 2:21 PM > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Walter Stock > > > > > > Walter please send me a note with current address. I would > > like to ask > > an Elder question. > > > > Dan > > > > > > - > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] VIX - Tom W. Date: 19 Jul 1999 06:05:26 -0400 Morning Tom, Noticed your post on the VIX, and it's current reflection on the CANSLIM trading environment. I was wondering how long you've followed it, and if you'd post a bit on historical points where the VIX has given you signals for favorable CANSLIM trading. Thanks, JW - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] VIX - Tom W. Date: 19 Jul 1999 07:32:14 -0400 Hi Jeff, I have been following VIX pretty consistently for about three years now. For the first year or so, it was pretty casual observation after someone told me a little about it. About two years ago, it was mentioned again in this group and discussed at some length, and I began to pay even closer attention as by then I had seen the relationship between it and a healthy CANSLIM environment. Don't know why it is, just that it is for me a good indicator on "M". It is not a "decision maker" for me, I will still buy when VIX is over 20, but it is a further input to my evaluation of "M", and also a cautionary signal overall. As I delve deeper, and gain further experience, with both economics and technical analysis, VIX lessens in importance, but is still something I look at daily. As for historical points, I printed up a two year chart at BigCharts (wow, Connie, you're right, tremendous improvement there, you should be happy!). During the first half of 1998 I did very well with pure CANSLIM stocks (all small cap). In this same time period VIX was relatively low, tho not consistently under or close to 20. It's last visit under 20 until now came in early July, which most will agree ended a favorable CANSLIM environment until earlier this year. VIX hit its current high of 60.63 on Oct 8, 1998, and has spent most of this year trading in the 20-30 range. My best correlation between VIX and CANSLIM comes from the size of my watch list. When VIX has been very high (over roughly 38 or so), my watch list has dwindled to just a handful of stocks. When it is low, say low 20s or better, I find little trouble keeping a good supply of candidates on my list. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Morning Tom, Noticed your post on the VIX, and it's current reflection on the CANSLIM trading environment. I was wondering how long you've followed it, and if you'd post a bit on historical points where the VIX has given you signals for favorable CANSLIM trading. Thanks, JW - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] SPLS [Connie Mack] Date: 19 Jul 1999 09:52:42 -0400 I'm buying SPLS from 30.87 to 31.5 but no higher. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Bojanowski Subject: [CANSLIM] Knight/Trimark (NITE) Date: 19 Jul 1999 13:35:41 -0400 Not sure if this really belongs here but..... On the Raging Bull message boards (www.RagingBull.com), there has been lots of talk about Knight/Trimark's downward movement. Some of it has been attributed to market makers selling on Friday since that was option expiration day and they wanted to force the July 55's to expire worthless. Now people are thinking that today's 1-point drop (so far) is due to the market makers trying to drive down the price before the July 21 earnings announcement (trying to shake out some nervous shareholders) so they (the market makers) can pick up some more shares cheap. There's been lots of chat about NITE beating the whisper number (yes, I know you can't trust everything you read online). So it seems to me that when you look at the fundamentals of this company it's a long-term buy. The charts tell me its oversold. So why does it drop? I know this sounds like a naive question but could this be the work of market makers? If so, how often does this happen? NITE may be pulled down today due to the article in Barron's about the online brokers growth slowing down a bit, but then NITE (which was NOT mentioned in the article) has a slightly different business the OLB's. Any thoughts/comments would be appreciated. Dave - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Knight/Trimark (NITE) Date: 19 Jul 1999 20:58:09 +0200 Dave, I'd suggest you do NOT base any of your trading decisions on internet chitchat. What would you do if you knew nothing about this company and someone present you the chart of this "ghost" company today. Would you buy or sell? Are you willing to hold through earnings? Do want to take the risk? Is the risk better than a Las Vegas risk? Why? At 01:35 PM 7/19/99 -0400, you wrote: >Not sure if this really belongs here but..... > >On the Raging Bull message boards (www.RagingBull.com), there has been >lots of talk about Knight/Trimark's downward movement. Some of it has >been attributed to market makers selling on Friday since that was option >expiration day and they wanted to force the July 55's to expire >worthless. Now people are thinking that today's 1-point drop (so far) >is due to the market makers trying to drive down the price before the >July 21 earnings announcement (trying to shake out some nervous >shareholders) so they (the market makers) can pick up some more shares >cheap. > >There's been lots of chat about NITE beating the whisper number (yes, I >know you can't trust everything you read online). So it seems to me >that when you look at the fundamentals of this company it's a long-term >buy. The charts tell me its oversold. So why does it drop? > >I know this sounds like a naive question but could this be the work of >market makers? If so, how often does this happen? > >NITE may be pulled down today due to the article in Barron's about the >online brokers growth slowing down a bit, but then NITE (which was NOT >mentioned in the article) has a slightly different business the OLB's. > >Any thoughts/comments would be appreciated. > >Dave > > >- > > Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Knight/Trimark (NITE) Date: 19 Jul 1999 21:07:45 +0200 Dave, Also wanted to note that the market was/is really extended and was almost bound to correct for a few days. And 'M' influences most stocks significantly. At 08:58 PM 7/19/99 +0200, you wrote: >Dave, > >I'd suggest you do NOT base any of your trading decisions on internet >chitchat. What would you do if you knew nothing about this company and >someone present you the chart of this "ghost" company today. Would you buy >or sell? > >Are you willing to hold through earnings? Do want to take the risk? Is the >risk better than a Las Vegas risk? Why? > > >At 01:35 PM 7/19/99 -0400, you wrote: >>Not sure if this really belongs here but..... >> >>On the Raging Bull message boards (www.RagingBull.com), there has been >>lots of talk about Knight/Trimark's downward movement. Some of it has >>been attributed to market makers selling on Friday since that was option >>expiration day and they wanted to force the July 55's to expire >>worthless. Now people are thinking that today's 1-point drop (so far) >>is due to the market makers trying to drive down the price before the >>July 21 earnings announcement (trying to shake out some nervous >>shareholders) so they (the market makers) can pick up some more shares >>cheap. >> >>There's been lots of chat about NITE beating the whisper number (yes, I >>know you can't trust everything you read online). So it seems to me >>that when you look at the fundamentals of this company it's a long-term >>buy. The charts tell me its oversold. So why does it drop? >> >>I know this sounds like a naive question but could this be the work of >>market makers? If so, how often does this happen? >> >>NITE may be pulled down today due to the article in Barron's about the >>online brokers growth slowing down a bit, but then NITE (which was NOT >>mentioned in the article) has a slightly different business the OLB's. >> >>Any thoughts/comments would be appreciated. >> >>Dave >> >> >>- >> >> > >Johan > > > > > > >- > > Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Knight/Trimark (NITE) Date: 19 Jul 1999 15:39:12 -0400 Dave, Johan already gave you sage advice. Some added thoughts: My assumption has been that is was being pulled down precisely because of its association with the online brokers. I have no idea what the actual power of the market makers is to play games, but surely that would be difficult if there was much demand for the stock (they would have to be shorting alot of shares "naked" - which they are allowed to do, I believe). It is not a stock that I would be jumping on at this point - bounced off the 50dma from the underside. 50dma looks like it may be turning down. This would be the definition of a short term downtrend. OTOH, it could bounce back strongly at any minute - but this is NOT the odds on play. If I was still holding from the breakout of 03/29/99, I'd be checking to see if there was a sell signal ala O'Neil's 3 pages of signals (need 2 or 3 to qualify generally). Otherwise I'd stay out looking for signs of strength. Lots of other fish in the pond. If you are in on a non-Canslim entry based solely on fundamentals and rumors ... can't really help you there - last CS entry was 03/29 and all of my trades are CS based - meaning technical and fundamental usually - and always with the technicals in mind first. The recent washout on 06/14 and 06/15 bounced off the 150dma. Maybe it will hold again. As Johan said, is it better than Vegas - I think not. Best Regards, Craig - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Nice little trick. [Connie Mack] Date: 19 Jul 1999 16:16:19 -0400 I have posted before about the Level II free site. Here is a nice trick to follow the Island Level II chart along with BigCharts. Set up BC with DELL. Set up any three indicators in the bottom panels. Then set up the Island site with DELL. Drag Island to the upper left of the BC screen. Now you can watch real time buy/sell on Island and view the BC chart of DELL [delayed 15 minutes]. The real time Island numbers will let you see where the delayed BC price is going. One member of my faculty group prints out a chart and up dates it from Island. If you want to see your full chart on BC, just drag Island down to the bottom of the screen and out of the way. If you'll leave Island dragged to the bottom of the screen, you can bring it up no matter what other screen you're viewing. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] MSS breakout Date: 19 Jul 1999 23:48:34 +0100 MSS broke out on big volume from its cup and handle. Regarding Dr Elders book - I have found this very useful for helping to get into stocks that are extended from CANSLIM patterns. Best wishes, Marc Still no comments from anyone on DTM!! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "L" Date: 19 Jul 1999 17:06:39 -0700 Ditto my reason for holding QWST. And EXDS. At 11:04 PM 7/16/99 -0500, you wrote: >Mary, > >Well... a recent example is ADCT (buying SAVLY). There are other companies, >such as QWST, which aren't CANSLIM - but are leaders in the whole >telecommunications expansion who've decided to buy U.S. West... > >I own both. ADCT as a pure CANSLIM play. QWST on the "David Ryan" theory >that the RS of the group is up, the companies are growing business, but >profits >aren't there yet. Biotech was the same way about 10 years ago. > >I've had a couple others on my watch list (ARSW comes to mind - now >trading at HYSL after buying HYSW) that I didn't buy - but noticed >the leader buying laggard. Unfortunately its been several days >since I posted the comment - and I don't have my notes. > >Thanks, >Dave > > >mckeen@ix.netcom.com wrote: > > > > Dave, > > > > No, I haven't noticed this. Would you name > > a few leaders who have bought laggards? > > > > Thanks, > > Mary > > > > Is this noticeable to anyone else? > > > > - > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Knight/Trimark (NITE) Date: 19 Jul 1999 17:12:23 -0700 I blame the Barron's article, NITE derives a huge chunk of their profits from the online brokers, when their growth in # of trades and customers is slowing, no doubt the "wise" see NITE as slowing in trades as well. I am holding it through all this BS. At 01:35 PM 7/19/99 -0400, you wrote: >Not sure if this really belongs here but..... > >On the Raging Bull message boards (www.RagingBull.com), there has been >lots of talk about Knight/Trimark's downward movement. Some of it has >been attributed to market makers selling on Friday since that was option >expiration day and they wanted to force the July 55's to expire >worthless. Now people are thinking that today's 1-point drop (so far) >is due to the market makers trying to drive down the price before the >July 21 earnings announcement (trying to shake out some nervous >shareholders) so they (the market makers) can pick up some more shares >cheap. > >There's been lots of chat about NITE beating the whisper number (yes, I >know you can't trust everything you read online). So it seems to me >that when you look at the fundamentals of this company it's a long-term >buy. The charts tell me its oversold. So why does it drop? > >I know this sounds like a naive question but could this be the work of >market makers? If so, how often does this happen? > >NITE may be pulled down today due to the article in Barron's about the >online brokers growth slowing down a bit, but then NITE (which was NOT >mentioned in the article) has a slightly different business the OLB's. > >Any thoughts/comments would be appreciated. > >Dave > > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: SKutney@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] When to buy Date: 19 Jul 1999 21:48:35 EDT Hi, Thanks for your comments regarding my SCNYA and General Questions post. I've tried tracking stocks in the news. Sometimes I've put a days worth in YAHOO and let it track for a few months. I find that lots of them go down. A few do great. Maybe I just picked the wrong days. When I do this tracking I just picked all of the stocks on the list. I'm not looking for specific technical patterns. Do to the size of my account I'm trying to buy just one or two stocks. Maybe I'm just expecting too much too soon. My big mistake is having a list of stocks in my head and going to work and discovering that on a given day the volume is way up. I buy at the market thinking that I'm breaking into new ground at the right time. The transaction gets executed at the high point of the day. The next day the profit takers sell to make a quick buck. The stock then goes back down. I get IBD in the mail. When a stock is 5% down on that list It may be too high by the time that I place my order. Anyway that is what I need to work on. That buy point. Then maybe I can work on the sell point. Steve - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Knight/Trimark (NITE) Date: 19 Jul 1999 21:56:25 -0400 Hi David, Since I've had personal experience with NITE as an institutional trading desk, and not looked at the chart in a month or so, decided I too would wade in here with an opinion. First, I don't see it as a CANSLIM buy right now, tho likely to be a good trading stock if you have the risk tolerance and short term trading tools and discipline. Second, recognize that in just the second qtr this year, it moved from under $20 to a new high of $81.625, before closing the quarter at $50, still a very nice three month gain. According to WON, giving back 25% of a leg up is healthy (that would have been back to about $64). Also according to WON, a 50% retrenchment is not healthy (that would be back around $50). Currently it appears to me to be mostly in a trading range in the $50-60 level, so borderline unhealthy. I do note that the volume for the past two months is considerably less than that which fueled its meteorite like rise to over $81. It is also important to look back at the news which helped fuel this large gain on volume. The biggest single announcement to impact the stock was its official launching of online trading for institutions (which wasn't exactly news to me since it had been available for nearly a year in "beta"). Since they've not yet opened up to retail level online trading, the Barron's article is not directly pertinent, but how many readers really understand that? And how many other online firms with retail relationships may also be using NITE for execution? Many, I would bet, thus NITE is affected by reports of a slowdown. On the other hand, the likely slowdown in institutional trading at NITE could be easily offset once they open up to retail accts, and I'll likely be one of the first to abandon Schwab in favor of NITE. It should also be noted that NITE, which for several months commanded nice CS elements of 99/99/A/A, still has the 99/99 but only a B/B. And up/down vol ratio, which was running over 2.0, is down now to 1.0. The trailing PE remains high (74) in anticipation of continued explosive earnings growth (FY 99 estimate for +192%) and they will likely have to report better nrs for Q2 than for Q1 to stay on track for this expectation. That could be hard to do if they have in fact slowed in volume, as volume is their winning formula. I have seen several ancedotal reports of online volume slowing, both on nrs of trades as well as the avg size of those trades. This could hurt NITE's upcoming report. I would recommend caution at this time. For a long term investment, it might work to pick up no more than half your position on any major drop in price, but I wouldn't commit the farm at this time. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Not sure if this really belongs here but..... On the Raging Bull message boards (www.RagingBull.com), there has been lots of talk about Knight/Trimark's downward movement. Some of it has been attributed to market makers selling on Friday since that was option expiration day and they wanted to force the July 55's to expire worthless. Now people are thinking that today's 1-point drop (so far) is due to the market makers trying to drive down the price before the July 21 earnings announcement (trying to shake out some nervous shareholders) so they (the market makers) can pick up some more shares cheap. There's been lots of chat about NITE beating the whisper number (yes, I know you can't trust everything you read online). So it seems to me that when you look at the fundamentals of this company it's a long-term buy. The charts tell me its oversold. So why does it drop? I know this sounds like a naive question but could this be the work of market makers? If so, how often does this happen? NITE may be pulled down today due to the article in Barron's about the online brokers growth slowing down a bit, but then NITE (which was NOT mentioned in the article) has a slightly different business the OLB's. Any thoughts/comments would be appreciated. Dave - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Earl Setser" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When to buy Date: 19 Jul 1999 20:10:02 -0700 If you are starting with "Stocks in the News" or maybe using the Weekend Update (as I do) to generate a watch list, you should do some initial screening. The following describes the approach I am using. This is all based on CANSLIM (I hope) and you should consider something similar. I use 80/80/B/B/B as minimums to filter out non CANSLIM stocks. The Weekend Update is very useful because it is only stocks that are 85/85 and above. Then you may want to look at a couple of other factors to cut the list further. I then look at Size - I use Market Cap rather than WON's shares, but either way this reduces the number of stocks you need to watch if you pick a good size. Institutions - I use a C or better as good and look further at "D"s. I do this since most of the smaller stocks seem to have low institutional ratings in IBD. I believe the reason is the outperformance of large stocks over the last few years. Earnings - I check for EPS growth of 25% or more in the last 2 quarters or last full year, and a 3 or 5 year growth of at least 20%. ROE - I use an ROE of 17% minimum (per WON online course I think) New - I peruse the news on the stock and see if I find the overall business attractive, and is there a new market, product, CEO, etc to help drive growth. Finally, I take the remaining stocks and look at the charts. I look for any stock with a 4 week consolidation period or more, and then pick the ones I like best that made the list. Then I estimate the pivot point for that stock and add it as a resistance line in my Clearstation watch list. This way I can pull up Clearstation each night, and get a quick overview of any stocks that are close, or have exceeded their pivot points. At 09:48 PM 7/19/99 EDT, you wrote: >Hi, > >Thanks for your comments regarding my SCNYA and General Questions post. > >I've tried tracking stocks in the news. Sometimes I've put a days worth in >YAHOO and let it track for a few months. I find that lots of them go down. A >few do great. >Maybe I just picked the wrong days. When I do this tracking I just picked all >of the stocks on the list. I'm not looking for specific technical patterns. > >Do to the size of my account I'm trying to buy just one or two stocks. Maybe >I'm just expecting too much too soon. My big mistake is having a list of >stocks in my head and going to work and discovering that on a given day the >volume is way up. I buy at the market thinking that I'm breaking into new >ground at the right time. The transaction gets executed at the high point of >the day. The next day the profit takers sell to make a quick buck. The stock >then goes back down. > >I get IBD in the mail. When a stock is 5% down on that list It may be too >high by the >time that I place my order. Anyway that is what I need to work on. That buy >point. > >Then maybe I can work on the sell point. > >Steve > >- > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] On Gold Date: 19 Jul 1999 22:19:36 -0400 Caught an interesting quote tonight from Infobeat. Worth noting as gold still persists in some minds as an early inflation indicator: Meanwhile, South Africa's Harmony Gold chief executive officer Bernard Swanepoel predicted a shakeout of the gold industry. "I've got no doubt that it (the weak gold price) will speed up the South African leg and the international producers have no place to hide any more," he said.At these prices, 45 percent of the world's gold output is unprofitable and Swanepoel predicted "some (companies) may be forced to throw in the towel." Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When to buy Date: 19 Jul 1999 22:32:44 -0400 Hi Steve, First, from a CANSLIM perspective, even before you enter a stock you should have already worked out the selling point, esp if the pick isn't working out for you. As for a successful pick, you can always adjust your selling point later, but you should always have an initial one prior to entry. Second, random selection yields random results. That's not what CANSLIM is all about. As Earl pointed out, you can start with a variety of lists, but CANSLIM requires that you do some homework, and weed out the chaff from the wheat. Finally, CANSLIM is not about news. By the time the news is published for you and I, it is usually already factored into the price of the stock. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hi, Thanks for your comments regarding my SCNYA and General Questions post. I've tried tracking stocks in the news. Sometimes I've put a days worth in YAHOO and let it track for a few months. I find that lots of them go down. A few do great. Maybe I just picked the wrong days. When I do this tracking I just picked all of the stocks on the list. I'm not looking for specific technical patterns. Do to the size of my account I'm trying to buy just one or two stocks. Maybe I'm just expecting too much too soon. My big mistake is having a list of stocks in my head and going to work and discovering that on a given day the volume is way up. I buy at the market thinking that I'm breaking into new ground at the right time. The transaction gets executed at the high point of the day. The next day the profit takers sell to make a quick buck. The stock then goes back down. I get IBD in the mail. When a stock is 5% down on that list It may be too high by the time that I place my order. Anyway that is what I need to work on. That buy point. Then maybe I can work on the sell point. Steve - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "L" Date: 19 Jul 1999 23:53:52 -0500 Tim, Good point. I left EXDS off the list. But... EXDS had a great breakout from a 2 month base about 3 weeks ago. It lofted by about 50% from that base - way too fast - and has given back about 60% of the 50% lift. Regardless, EXDS holds about 80% of the web hosting business. They are spending money to expand faster than they are making it. If you switched EPS/RS to RPS/RS. (Revenue replacing earnings) - both EXDS and QWST would be 95+/95+. Combined with the industry strength, this keeps me in. And, yes, I own some shares in both... you have great taste, Tim! Dave Tim Fisher wrote: > > Ditto my reason for holding QWST. And EXDS. > > At 11:04 PM 7/16/99 -0500, you wrote: > >Mary, > > > >Well... a recent example is ADCT (buying SAVLY). There are other companies, > >such as QWST, which aren't CANSLIM - but are leaders in the whole > >telecommunications expansion who've decided to buy U.S. West... > > > >I own both. ADCT as a pure CANSLIM play. QWST on the "David Ryan" theory > >that the RS of the group is up, the companies are growing business, but > >profits > >aren't there yet. Biotech was the same way about 10 years ago. > > > >I've had a couple others on my watch list (ARSW comes to mind - now > >trading at HYSL after buying HYSW) that I didn't buy - but noticed > >the leader buying laggard. Unfortunately its been several days > >since I posted the comment - and I don't have my notes. > > > >Thanks, > >Dave > > > > > >mckeen@ix.netcom.com wrote: > > > > > > Dave, > > > > > > No, I haven't noticed this. Would you name > > > a few leaders who have bought laggards? > > > > > > Thanks, > > > Mary > > > > > > Is this noticeable to anyone else? > > > > > > - > > > >- > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > PFB Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: [CANSLIM] Timeliness Rating - Tom Date: 20 Jul 1999 01:18:35 -0400 Hi Tom, I now have access to Daily Graphs (print version only), and was wondering about the often-mentioned Timeliness rating. The definition of the rating on the last page of DG seems vague, perhaps intentionally so. Could you (and/or others) shed some light on this? How is it derived? How much importance would you ascribe to it in making a stock purchase decision? Thank you, Walter Oakville, Ontario, Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mikelu" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Timeliness Rating - Tom Date: 19 Jul 1999 22:54:16 -0700 I went to a seminar where WON said "We don't use that for anything." Mike -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Walter Stock Sent: Monday, July 19, 1999 10:19 PM Hi Tom, I now have access to Daily Graphs (print version only), and was wondering about the often-mentioned Timeliness rating. The definition of the rating on the last page of DG seems vague, perhaps intentionally so. Could you (and/or others) shed some light on this? How is it derived? How much importance would you ascribe to it in making a stock purchase decision? Thank you, Walter Oakville, Ontario, Canada - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] VIX - Tom W. Date: 20 Jul 1999 06:40:10 -0400 > About two years ago, it was mentioned again in this group > and discussed at some length, and I began to pay even closer > attention as by then I had seen the relationship between it > and a healthy CANSLIM environment. Don't know why it is, > just that it is for me a good indicator on "M". Do you think your success with VIX as an indicator has anything to do with your focus on smaller stocks, which have been loathe to move unless the market was become over blown with enthusiasm? I personally view it as an indicator much like sentiment numbers, and it looks dangerously low when it is in the low 20's. As I understand it, VIX is a panic/complacency indicator, which is currently at it's lowest point since July 1998 (a classic CANSLIM turn). Thought perhaps your focus on smaller stocks, which seem to require (at least over recent memory) virtual capitulation by bears to get them moving, could be the reason you liked the VIX. Appreciate the response. Jeff - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO Services Date: 20 Jul 1999 06:56:39 -0400 For those members subscribing, or considering subscribing, to Daily Graphs Online, thought you'd like to know they plan a new software release Sep 1. There are apparently many new features, but two I know of are a daily (vs weekly) update on earnings data; and a Datablock for all stocks, not just those in the books. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] VIX - Tom W. Date: 20 Jul 1999 07:06:44 -0400 Hi Jeff, Granted, I am pretty old fashioned and still believe in the "I" and "S" of CANSLIM, hence my involvement with small cap stocks. In any case, the person who first tried to teach me about VIX was only buying mid and large cap stocks, and felt VIX was a useful indicator for him, so don't believe it's limited to small cap trading. Lack of volatility (remember VIX is a volatility index) does not equate to complacency. Rather, it equates to a low level of emotional fear influencing the mkt. During times when there is no reason for strong fears to be present, lower volatility is logical. Right now, the big fear is further rate hikes by the Feds, esp with Mr. G speaking on Thursday. So yesterday's jump in VIX didn't surprise me, in fact I would have been surprised had it stayed down. If I see VIX rising sharply, it would serve as an addl indicator of a change in "M". Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- > About two years ago, it was mentioned again in this group > and discussed at some length, and I began to pay even closer > attention as by then I had seen the relationship between it > and a healthy CANSLIM environment. Don't know why it is, > just that it is for me a good indicator on "M". Do you think your success with VIX as an indicator has anything to do with your focus on smaller stocks, which have been loathe to move unless the market was become over blown with enthusiasm? I personally view it as an indicator much like sentiment numbers, and it looks dangerously low when it is in the low 20's. As I understand it, VIX is a panic/complacency indicator, which is currently at it's lowest point since July 1998 (a classic CANSLIM turn). Thought perhaps your focus on smaller stocks, which seem to require (at least over recent memory) virtual capitulation by bears to get them moving, could be the reason you liked the VIX. Appreciate the response. Jeff - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Timeliness Rating - Tom Date: 20 Jul 1999 07:19:17 -0400 Hi Walter, Timeliness is a proprietary formula, so it's natural they would be vague in how it is calculated. Keep in mind it is a long term indicator, generally useful to a long term investor and completely useless to a day trader or very short term investor. The intent of it is to suggest how one stock will perform over the next 12 months compared to another. Because of its long term nature, it is less sig to me than many others, such as RS, EPS, up/down ratio and GRS. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hi Tom, I now have access to Daily Graphs (print version only), and was wondering about the often-mentioned Timeliness rating. The definition of the rating on the last page of DG seems vague, perhaps intentionally so. Could you (and/or others) shed some light on this? How is it derived? How much importance would you ascribe to it in making a stock purchase decision? Thank you, Walter Oakville, Ontario, Canada - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dean Edwards" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] "L" Date: 21 Jul 1999 18:30:01 +1200 Privyet =3D (Hi) Everyone! I have been away overseas in Russia on holiday for a month. My only observation; since being back is that the big caps are making new highs a= s usual and the rest of the market is lagging. For your information: CABOT'S INTERNET STOCK OF THE WEEK Diversifying Your Net Holdings Every day, we correspond with investors who see companies like America Online and Amazon.com as the same. . .Net firms with high-flying stocks. What th= ey fail to realize is that these two companies are, in fact, very different. AOL is an Internet Service Provider and Amazon is a retailer. Saying they are the same is like saying Wal Mart is the same as your local phone company. The fact that firms rely on the Internet to generate their business doesn't m= ake them the same! William O'Neil, (of Investor's Business Daily fame) separates Internet stocks into four broad groups: Network Services (such as Inktomi and Network Solutions), ISPs/Content (AOL and Yahoo!), Internet Software (Healtheon a= nd CMGI) and E-commerce (Amazon.com and eBay). It might surprise you to know that these groups move independently of each other. E-commerce stocks might be hot while ISPs are resting. Internet Software firms could be surging while Network Services stocks are cold. For this reason, it's a good idea to diversify across all four groups as you build your Internet portfolio. And if you enjoy short-term investing (or trading) it's important to know where the streng= th (or weakness) is. If you're wondering about companies like Cisco and Microsoft, which deriv= e much of their revenue from the Internet, O'Neil categorizes them in the Networking and Software groups, respectively. These two powerhouses (and the PC make= rs) aren't considered "pure-play" Net companies, so they are found in differe= nt groups. Grouping stocks is not an exact science, but it helps you to determine where pockets of strength can be found. As momentum investors, we always favor strong stocks over weak ones. And today the strongest group of Internet stocks is the Network Services group. The weakest group is E-commerce. So why do we care which Internet groups are = the strongest? Simply put, the strongest groups tend to stay strong for a relatively long period of time. There's nothing more bullish than new hig= hs, and the Network Services group is close to breaking out to new high territory. If you follow the Internet industry closely, you can probably guess which stocks belong to the weaker E-commerce group. eBay for instance, has been struggling lately as a result of outages and negative press about increas= ed competition. On the other hand, the strong Network Services group contain= s Exodus Communications (EXDS), a good performer (and our July 6 Internet Stock of the Week). Stock groups are either in favor or out of favor. And while it's importan= t to have holdings across several groups, the best time to buy a stock is when it's leading a strong peer group higher. When this is the case, the stock is enjoying good sponsorship. And with plenty of support, the odds are great that the stock will push higher. If you're wondering which group will be the next one to fly, we have no idea. It's not wise to anticipate where the market is headed, because it'll alw= ays keep you guessing. Remember that =ECThe trend is your friend.=EE And righ= t now, the positive trend is with the Network Services stocks. In our mind, that= 's the best place to look for growth opportunities that are poised for continued strength. So in that vein, we have another stock in the powerful Network Services group as today's top pick. Verio (VRIO) is a provider of Internet services to small and medium sized businesses. Its services include connectivity services (dial-up, ISDN and DSL), Web hosting and domain name registrations. It ha= s all of the bases covered! ______________________________ VERIO (VRIO 83 NSDQ) In the early days of the Internet, the most visible companies were new retailers like Amazon.com and eBay that moved quickly to stake a claim in this new retailing channel before the more established companies could settle = in. Yahoo, Netscape, E-Trade, Ameritrade and MindSpring were other early winners, partially by virtue of their ability to get their name in front of the individual investor first. The reason these companies were first was that their founders had a brand new vision. And they pursued that vision quickly, unimpeded by any existing bricks and mortar operations. More entrenched organizations (think Merrill Lynch= , Citibank, Barnes and Noble) certainly saw the Internet unfolding and saw competitors taking advantage of the new media. But they were slow to adju= st to the change. However, a shift is happening! And as the weeks and months go by, more an= d more established companies are getting on the Internet. To get there, the= y need help. And that's where Verio comes in. Verio is the world's largest Web hosting company, with more than 240,000 = Web sites in over 127 countries. In the U.S. it has a Network Operations Cent= er in Dallas, Texas manned 24 hours a day, 7 days a week to ensure that all Web sites are functioning as designed. But from the business owner's point of view, Verio seems to be more like local people helping him set up a successful online extension of his existing business! So yes, Verio boasts the strength, reliability and consistency of a natio= nal provider. But it offers the responsiveness of a local organization. In fa= ct, the Verio network was built piece by piece through acquisition. Verio stitched together 29 national nodes and 190 local POPs (points of presence) to bec= ome what it is today. Holding it all together is the Dallas, Texas Operations Center and a 15-y= ear agreement with Qwest that supplies Verio with fast and cheap long-distanc= e fiber-optic transmission capacity. At the ends of its network, wherever the customer is located, Verio has t= he expertise to provide the customer with the right speed connection for his requirements. These can range from ISDN services to always-on ADSL and T1 lines. While competitor Exodus (our pick two weeks ago) focuses on the big Fortu= ne 500 accounts like USA Today, Gateway, eBay and Blockbuster, Verio prefers to serve small and mid-size companies. Major clients include the Air Force Association, American Horticultural Society, United Way, Head USA, District of Columbi= a Bar and Central Atlantic Toyota Dealers. Now maybe this client list isn't as recognizable as Exodus'. But the fact is there are tens of thousands more clients of this size, all in need of the services Verio provides. And Verio already provides services in 127 countries, so it's ready to ta= ke advantage of the expansion that's now beginning in Europe, among other places, that should rival the past couple year's growth in the U.S. In fact, Veri= o is already the biggest Web site host in Europe, hosting over 50,000 sites. So what services does Verio provide, exactly? First, there's the hosting service, which provides the customer with at least part of a computer sys= tem connected to the Internet. Then there are the tools that allow the custom= er to use that site, and (most commonly) to get orders from it. There's also Web site design. Using proven =ECforms=EE, Verio will design= a complete, workable e-commerce site for a price ranging from $1,495 to $9,995. Such a site might incorporate shopping carts, searchable databases and ev= en editable newsletters. Thus Verio makes it easy for small and mid-sized business to get online a= t higher speeds and to sell their products and services online by packaging all the components of e-commerce into a set of easily implemented turnkey solutions. The company also helps its customers set up virtual private networks (VPN= s), the emerging standard for intra-company communications. Such a system use= s the infrastructure of the Internet but adds firewalls, which block out all bu= t authorized company personnel. With a VPN, employees in far-flung cities c= an collaborate on projects as easily as employees in the same building! At the heart of the company is CEO Justin Jaschke, who had the foresight = to see the tremendous demand that would evolve for these services as the Interne= t grew. Behind him are over 300 engineers and customer support personnel, w= ho keep the fast-growing network operating at top speed and make sure the customer is always satisfied. And on the front lines there are over 300 employees = in sales, making sure Verio remains the world's largest Web hosting company. They market Verio's services nationally through direct mail, telemarketing and online marketing campaigns. Like most great Internet companies, Verio is focused on growing the business, not on making a profit. In fact, profits are probably a few years away. B= ut the losses are expected to narrow in the years ahead. In the quarter ende= d March 31, revenues grew 160% to $55.1 million, while the loss per share w= as $1.02 per share, down from a loss of $1.75 four quarters before. There ar= e 28 million shares outstanding, of which management owns 4%. The stock shows great sponsorship. Still, it follows the direction of the broad market. It bottomed last October and it peaked in April, just like = the rest of the market. Since the April top we've seen a six-week pullback th= at ended in May. . . . .and that was good, since most stocks didn't bottom until June. And now the stock has zoomed ahead to new highs! Momentum Analysis tells us there's only one reason for this strength: Investors are becoming more and more bullish about this company's growth prospects! They're continually revising their opinions upward, and they'r= e willing to pay more and more for this stock! The stock broke out to a new price high of 74.75 on Friday, July 9 and continues to blast ahead on big volume as we write this. While it may pull back to the 75 area to build a base, it's equally likely it could keep climbing to 100 or more before pausing. .. . . .in which case buying now is your best bet. And that's what we recommend! ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, July 20, 1999 4:53 PM > Tim, > > Good point. I left EXDS off the list. But... EXDS had a great > breakout from a 2 month base about 3 weeks ago. It lofted by > about 50% from that base - way too fast - and has given back about > 60% of the 50% lift. Regardless, EXDS holds about 80% of the > web hosting business. They are spending money to expand faster > than they are making it. If you switched EPS/RS to RPS/RS. > (Revenue replacing earnings) - both EXDS and QWST would be 95+/95+. > Combined with the industry strength, this keeps me in. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] DELL [technical stuff]. [Connie Mack] Date: 20 Jul 1999 12:15:54 -0400 DELL is sitting on two instances of moderate support since May. I am taking positions at 40.75 and will buy down to 39 in about 1/2 point increments. I will also look to buy up at 41.25 and 41.5. I am presuming that DELL has been pretty thoroughly shaken out. You must be careful. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are taking big hits. I am less concerned about the DOW for the moment. The NASDAQ has just passed through some minor support at 2760. There just isn't any clear, firm support until about 2675 if the breakdown continues. The S&P500 has no firm support until 1365. It now stands at 1386. I have also bought: WIT FSR WCS FHS. I am looking to swing trade rather than day trade all my stocks. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] DELL [Technical stuff.] [Connie Mack] Date: 20 Jul 1999 12:32:01 -0400 I neglected to mention that I am hoping to buy some SPLS. Watch the MACD for an entry point. The stock has already undergone a First and Second Level 3/7/10 EMA buy; the Third Level buy will occur with just a small move up. On the intraday chart: Notice that the 3/7/10 EMA has a near double between the 3 and 7 EMA. There is probably a bit more down yet. The volume is pretty heavily negative, but is diminishing the last 20 minutes or so. The MACD and 3/7/10 EMA have just turned buy. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] DELL [Connie Mack] Date: 20 Jul 1999 15:15:22 -0400 Here is an opportunity to see how indicators are used in trading DELL. I'll use BigCharts and Island to comment. Pull up DELL on BC with an intraday, 5-minute chart. Pull up Island and stick it in the bottom left corner. I have three positions in DELL at this time averaging 41.25. On BC DELL has just made a double bottom at 40.75. The 3/7/10 EMA shows a doubling. At 2:59 the last sale is 41 7/64. Because BC is 15 minutes delayed, you can fill in the chart in your mind (or print out the chart and fill it in). I'd like to see the 41.25 high at 1:15 taken out. If it were to be, then I'd be interested in another position around 41.37. For me, DELL is acting very well amidst declines everywhere in the indexes. That holding up does not mean I can relax. It merely means that for a trader the probabilities favored entries between 39 and 41.5. The MACD is a bit ambiguous, but promising. As I am positioned now, I can empty all my positions with a nominal loss. Since DELL has made a double bottom at 40.75, I would consider a break to 40.5 as a breach and be ready to clear out. My earlier intention to buy down to 39 has, therefore, been altered because of the double bottom. To say this is an instance of how one must alter his action as things change. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] VIX Date: 20 Jul 1999 21:45:15 +0200 For those on the list who are not familiar with VIX the following might be usefull (from my archive): The CBOE's Volatility Index is known by its ticker symbol VIX. It is one measure of the level of implied volatility and was developed by the CBOE in 1993. VIX measures the volatility of the U.S. equity market. VIX is updated throughout the day by the CBOE in real time using OEX bid/ask quotes. VIX is calculated by taking the weighted average of the implied volatilities of eight OEX calls and puts with an average time to maturity of 30 days. VIX is therefore a measurement of 30 day index options. It is not a measure of the volatility of any one individual stock or option. It does not measure the implied volatility of any other index other than the OEX. However, many traders use it as a general indication of index option implied volatility. **VOLATILITY INDEX** One of the indicators I have talked about is the VIX. This is another indicator from CBOE whose full name is Market Volatility Index. This index, while it has no nice fixed number, (like >0 = oversold;<0 =overbought), can be best evaluated with the use of simple 20 period Bollinger bands. When the VIX rises to meet or exceed the 20 day upper band, you can generally count on a rally within the next two days....conversely, when the VIX drops near or through the lower band, you can expect the market to reverse and fail within the next two days....It doesn't ALWAYS work that way, but when used in conjunction with some other simple indicators can give you a pretty good idea of market direction near term. Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] DELL. [Connie Mack] Date: 20 Jul 1999 15:49:12 -0400 DELL is notorious for sinking between 9:30 and 10:00. Often the falling away is good entry point. It is equally notorious for its action in the last 15 minutes of trading, even the last five. Because it is such a good trading stock, the presence or absence of traders early in the morning and late in the day call for more than even due diligence. Right now, the 41.25 resistance looks like it may stop any swing up. The last sale is 40 63/64. I won't know what to do until probably the last five minutes. I could hold all positions with a 41 or thereabouts close. Were there a last minute rally, I would consider adding slightly to my positions for a bounce tomorrow. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] BNBN and DELL. [Connie Mack] Date: 20 Jul 1999 17:52:03 -0400 A couple of members have asked me about BNBN in the last few days. I do not know if either bought the stock. I liked the stock and had considered buying it; however, I got side-tracked, and forgot about it. Today it dropped 3/4 point. This could be a nice entry. If you look at the intraday chart, you'll see a positive divergence on the MACD for the last half of the day. The implication is for a bounce tomorrow. Beyond tomorrow, I am presuming that the correction in the indexes is just that, a correction that is a buying opportunity. I'd be surprised if there were much more on the downside. Until I see otherwise, I will be about 80 percent cash invested and will consider using margin for further trading in DELL. I am carrying all my DELL overnight. If you followed DELL the last 7-10 minutes on Island, you saw those many whole lot sales of 300-1000 shares. The traders are lightening up in the closing minutes. At other times you will see many odd lots; today there was a lot 17 and several between 20 and 40 that were trying to buy at 40. There are comparable odd lots on the sell side during the day. There is a gap to be filled around 40.75; also there is support in this area. The 41.25 resistance will still be in effect tomorrow. Once through that, there is money to be made of about 3.5 points. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: VRIO (was Re: [CANSLIM] "L") Date: 20 Jul 1999 19:36:11 -0400 Welcome back, Dean On VRIO - nice story, but hardly CANSLIM. EPS 47, lost $5.24 for 1999 and expected to lose another $5.00 in 2000, with a loss of $4.30 in 2001. So while revenue may grow, the bottom line isn't expected to do much for several years. And the mkt cap ratio is over 17 as well. Needless to say, debt is slightly high (333%), and management has little at risk aside from their jobs (mngmt ownership 4%). So while this may be a great success story for the future, hardly a CS candidate. Thanks for the story, tho. I learned a little more about the industry in reading it. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Privyet = (Hi) Everyone! I have been away overseas in Russia on holiday for a month. My only observation; since being back is that the big caps are making new highs as usual and the rest of the market is lagging. For your information: CABOT'S INTERNET STOCK OF THE WEEK Diversifying Your Net Holdings As momentum investors, we always favor strong stocks over weak ones. And today the strongest group of Internet stocks is the Network Services group. The weakest group is E-commerce. So in that vein, we have another stock in the powerful Network Services group as today's top pick. Verio (VRIO) is a provider of Internet services to small and medium sized businesses. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Squires Subject: [CANSLIM] New tool Date: 21 Jul 1999 09:29:59 -0500 Hi all, For those who like graphs, Excite has a cool new feature called the Evaluator. It's worth a look. http://www.quicken.excite.com/investments/stkeval/?symbol=NTAP&cmetric=rev&histtim=ann&grtim=1yr DSquires - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: VIX Date: 21 Jul 1999 11:34:51 -0400 (EDT) With regard to the VIX, I have somewhere on my hard drive, or or in my URL's a nice graph showing that there is an inverse relationship between the russell 5000 (small cap stocks) and the vix, that is, when the VIX peaks small caps tank and when vix declines small caps go up. For those of you with QP2, check out this relationship by overlaying VIX (!VIX) to the russell-500 (!RUT). In addition, there is a relationship between VIX and Bollinger bands, uncovered by Bernie Schaeffer (whose recommendations I generally don't follow because his track record is generally rather poor). With that grain of salt, he looked at breaks by the VIX out of its Bollinger Bands and found the following: After the VIX breaks its upper band the market (OEX) goes up immediately for 7 or 8 days. After 5 trading days the market is up 0.745% on average. By contrast when the VIX pierces the lower band the market turns down after one day and continues down for the next 4 days before recovering. After 5 trading days the market (OEX) is down 0.458%. Ciao, Rich _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] DELL {Connie Mack] Date: 21 Jul 1999 13:21:05 -0400 DELL has been a good trade this morning. Notice how accurate the Doubling Principle worked at 11:00. It gave a near perfect exit. DELL is coming off of a double bottom on falling volume. The double bottom coincides with a longer term support; hence, the 40.65-87 area has good prospects of holding. I am re-entering and anticipating that the 41.25 resistance will again be taken out. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: VIX Date: 21 Jul 1999 22:51:44 +0200 At 11:34 AM 7/21/99 -0400, you wrote: > >With regard to the VIX, I have somewhere on my hard drive, or or >in my URL's a nice graph showing that there is an inverse >relationship between the russell 5000 (small cap stocks) and the >vix, that is, when the VIX peaks small caps tank and when vix >declines small caps go up. For those of you with QP2, check out >this relationship by overlaying VIX (!VIX) to the russell-500 >(!RUT). !RUT in QPv2 = Russell 2000 (Not 5000 nor 500.) Overlay the !VIX with the !OEX. Yep, the VIX moves in the opposite direction as the !OEX (S&P 100). And the OEX doesn't contain than many small cap co's AFAIK. Johan === - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] VIX - Tom W. Date: 21 Jul 1999 18:11:07 -0400 > Lack of volatility (remember VIX is a volatility index) does > not equate to complacency. Rather, it equates to a low level > of emotional fear influencing the mkt. During times when > there is no reason for strong fears to be present, lower > volatility is logical. Right now, the big fear is further > rate hikes by the Feds, esp with Mr. G speaking on Thursday. > So yesterday's jump in VIX didn't surprise me, in fact I > would have been surprised had it stayed down. If I see VIX > rising sharply, it would serve as an addl indicator of a > change in "M". > > Tom Worley Not sure what the difference is between "complacency" and "low level of emotional fear", but I think you overlook the point of the volatility indicator (at least as accepted by those who follow it closely). I've been deposing a string of psychologists and psychiatrist of late (from Burlington to Boston to Louisville to Albuquerque), and they could probably explain it in a way that would spin our heads. Anyway, as an example of how the indicator is traditionally viewed, check this chart out: http://decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/CurrentVIX.html (And check out the "About the VIX" link) The spike down near a two year low on Friday last showed extraordinary "complacency/low level of emotional fear/bullishness", not seen since the beginning of the last major downward, intermediate term CANSLIM "M" phase, July '98. It may well mark the top of this intermediate term move from October '98 (the start of which was likewise marked by a VIX two year extreme). With 4 distribution days in the Nasdaq (the clear leader index from the Oct. low), sentiment numbers out of whack for months, leadership long since faded away (the I-nuts), A/D in horrible shape, I'd be hoping for a good rally attempt here to move to cash in my weaker positions (if stops aren't in place and taking you out). Mr. G? Whose he, some noise-maker? Thanks for the responses, Tom. Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: [CANSLIM] HQ Breakout Date: 21 Jul 1999 19:42:25 -0400 HQ broke out today from a cup with handle pattern on triple average volume. They reported yesterday and must have beat the whisper numbers. The stock closed at 40 15/16 just above its pivot point. But: Recent earnings have been spotty. And the handle is only a bit over a week old. I heard a story on NPR recently about HQ. Their claim to fame is that they are handling IPOs with public auctions. In this way, the company issuing the stock is supposed to receive the fair market value rather than the first stockholders. Any other opinions on this stock from a CANSLIM perspective? How about their business model -- does it make sense? - Hugh - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] NITE earnings Date: 21 Jul 1999 21:04:34 -0400 For those interested: This morning Knight/Trimark Group (NITE) reported earnings of $0.43, beating the consensus estimate of $0.35. Our Earnings Whisper number was $0.37, but Charlotte Chamberlain at Jefferies & Company told EarningsWhispers.com yesterday that NITE would beat our whisper number by $0.03, which was the highest estimate we heard. So much for rumors and articles in Barron's. Same qtr a year ago they earned 12 cents. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Some homework essays. Date: 21 Jul 1999 21:10:51 -0400 There is at this site a library of twenty or so short essays on technical indicators. They are modestly complete and should lead you to more detailed reading elsewhere. The Hard Right Edge site has some or all of them. http://www.tradingday.com/dir/quotes_and_charts/ta_tutorial/ I posted last year of my playing around with several EMAs brought to bear on a single stock. The 5/10/15/20/25 EMA had shown some nominal promise but none approached the accuracy of my 3/7/10 EMA. The Doubling Principle of the 3/7 EMA is astoundingly accurate. The subject of multiple EMAs is covered in the two Rainbow essays. What you will see in several essays is the statement that many traders use only two or three indicators to make their living. Some of you who have asked me about my trading strategies and indicators were, I think, surprised that my trading is circumscribed by just a very few indicators and almost no sophisticated software. I almost felt that I had disappointed these questioners. Like the hedgehog who knows only a few things, these few things he knows exceedingly well. Good advice for the trader or investor. Have a very few indicators, believe in them, and act upon them dispassionately. With a few years of experience, you can give some latitude to "dispassionately"--as I do with DELL or MU and a couple of other stocks. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: SimbaLnKng@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Some homework essays. Date: 21 Jul 1999 21:19:38 EDT In a message dated 7/21/99 9:11:30 PM Eastern Daylight Time, rea1@dp.net writes: << The 5/10/15/20/25 EMA had shown some nominal promise but none approached the accuracy of my 3/7/10 EMA. The Doubling Principle of the 3/7 EMA is astoundingly accurate. >> I'm new to this CANSLIM e-mail group. Can you explain to me what you mean by the 3/7/10 EMA and the doubling principle of the 3/7 EMA, or where I can go to read about them? THANKS! Rob Hodges - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: VIX Date: 21 Jul 1999 21:24:16 -0400 Just in case I might have confused anyone, please understand that the VIX is a "volatility" index. Thus as volatility increases, so does VIX. Thus an inverse relationship is a positive sign (e.g. as VIX drops, OEX, R2000, etc go up in value). What I have found is that when volatility is down (e.g. VIX is down, preferably under 20), then the CANSLIM environment (e.g. "M") is more favorable to CANSLIMers. So all these scientific analysis of VIX versus any price based indexes that shows an inverse relationship just proves my point. I want VIX to go down, cuz that helps make my portfolio value go up! Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- At 11:34 AM 7/21/99 -0400, you wrote: > >With regard to the VIX, I have somewhere on my hard drive, or or >in my URL's a nice graph showing that there is an inverse >relationship between the russell 5000 (small cap stocks) and the >vix, that is, when the VIX peaks small caps tank and when vix >declines small caps go up. For those of you with QP2, check out >this relationship by overlaying VIX (!VIX) to the russell-500 >(!RUT). !RUT in QPv2 = Russell 2000 (Not 5000 nor 500.) Overlay the !VIX with the !OEX. Yep, the VIX moves in the opposite direction as the !OEX (S&P 100). And the OEX doesn't contain than many small cap co's AFAIK. Johan === - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Some homework essays. Date: 21 Jul 1999 21:35:50 -0400 Sure can, Rob-- Here are a couple of posts that will explain what you've asked about. Connie 3/7/10 Doubling Principle. [Connie Mack] Tomorrow will provide a check on the 3/7/10 Doubling Principle on both the DOW [ INDU on BigCharts] and the NASDAQ. I'll use BigCharts so everyone can see what I am seeing. Pull up a 1-day chart with a 15-minute period of the NASDAQ. A doubling began at 2:00; this is a positive doubling, one that occurs when the 3 EMA is above the 7/10 EMA. Negative is the obverse. The inference is that a flattening or decline will be the next price motion. The Doubling Principle applies to other periods [5, 10, 15, and 30 minutes], to different day settings, and to weekly charts. Use the MACD and OBV to anticipate or to confirm the validity of the doubling [or tripling, in some extreme instances]. I usually don't use a stochastic, for it is too jerky. But jerky is relative when you're using a chart set up as I've chosen. The change of character is implied by the MACD which has begun a negative crossover just a few minutes ahead of the 3/7 EMA. It's time to go if I'm trading the index. Otherwise, it's time to look at my NASDAQ holdings to see if their chartsare acting similarly. BigCharts gives no volume data on the DOW or the NASDAQ. However, I would check the OBV and the Volume+ on each stock held. You ought to wait for the 7/10 EMA to get parallel or nearly so. I.e., these two EMAs have to get disengaged from their crossing for a few periods [whatever you're using] and begin a parallel track. Then you can look for the doubling. Remember on an intraday chart, things are happening fast. You may want to wait for a Second, or even a Third, Level buy or sell to quiet down the impulse to buy or sell. You can get jerked out of your socks, otherwise. Remember, too, that a flattening, even for a very few periods, is a legitimate manifestation of a doubling. And the return to the previous trend can be begun once again. I let the MACD imply the result of the doubling if the 3/7 EMA is not clear. You might take a look at DELL on a similar chart. DELL didn't allow the inference available on the NASDAQ because it didn't double at 2:00. However, the MACD did anticipate the falling away; and just a few minutes later the 3/7/10 went sell. Beyond the sell points, DELL looks very much like the NASDAQ; and the doubling is clear by 2:15. What to do? I wait tomorrow for the 3/7 and MACD to turn buy. BC's Volume + indicator flattened in the last 15 minutes as did the OBV. This is but a shadow hint that a turn is at hand. What I will do is look at a 3-month chart and look for a support number. I find it at 36.12 or so. Therefore, if the weakness continues [if the doubling continues], I would expect that 36.12 would be a reasonable point for a recovery. As a trader, I might put in a buy at this price on the open and take a small position; it should be relatively safe, but I would be ready for a quick exit. Analogously, should a doubling appear at a resistance point, I would be wary. The doubling could continue or a breakout could occur, and the price would continue rising. Or, the resistance could overcome price. If you look at the DOW, you'll see a similar context with a bit more of a turn implied at the close. Connie Mack : Re: [CANSLIM] Re. 3/7/10 EMA Morning Talib-- I read the positions of the 3/7/10 EMA just as you do. Same with the OBV and MF. I'm not sure what you mean by "This means it complies with your first requirement." If you mean that the passing of the 7-day EMA through the 10 is the requirement for the most conservative buy, then you are right. The least conservative [therefore, the most aggressive] would have been the passing of the 3-line through the 7. The next most aggressive buy would be the passing of the 7-line through the 10. There are, then, three buy signals: [1] 3-line through the 7; [2] 3-line through the 10; [3] and the 7-line through the 10. Sell signals would call for the reverse. To see the acuity among the three lines, you may need to look at one of the intraday charts. It is not uncommon in a volatile stock to have the 3-line and 7-line pass almost simultaneously through the 10. By my OBV/MF criteria, the stock would not have been a buy. It is a strong stock, which is to say that the OBV and MF track the price, but neither of the indicators shows a positive divergence. Always, there must be a positive divergence in both the OBV and the MF to signal a buy. Thank you for the mail. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] VIX - Tom W. Date: 21 Jul 1999 21:39:17 -0400 Jeff, As you know, I view market "fears" more in the light of whether they are substantiated or not, while also trying to recognize their ability to move the mkt even when totally baseless. Hence, my delving deeply into economics as well as mostly ignoring day to day moves, and trying to watch a bigger picture instead. A legitimate fear carries far greater weight to me than one that is stupid, ridiculous or totally media inspired (and the media has a history of changing direction overnight, dragging along a lot of gullible investors with them). When the media isn't busy hyping the public, the market gets a chance to trade more on its true fundamentals, and that's a big part of CANSLIM. Mr. Greenspan is likely the single most influential individual in the financial markets, not just here in the USA but in the world. Whether or not I always agree with him won't change that, so whatever he says is worth listening to if for no other reason than trying to guess how it will influence the markets over the next month or so. There are many media airhead commentators that I would gleefully enter in a global "noisemaker" contest, Mr. G is not one of them. While VIX is, ultimately, sentiment based in that it is measured off the options contracts open, those holders of those contracts are voting with real money, their own capital. That makes their vote more significant to me than someone's opinion of "feelings" (e.g. the sentiment nrs). I also view the measurement of VIX as "purer" and with greater graduations than a simple measure of bulls vs bears. I have also over the years had many clients who vocalized bearish yet refused to let go of losing positions, as well as bullish clients who sold their best winners at the first sign of a profit. As I said early on, can't explain why VIX works as an indicator to me, just that it has and continues to be useful for me. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- > Lack of volatility (remember VIX is a volatility index) does > not equate to complacency. Rather, it equates to a low level > of emotional fear influencing the mkt. During times when > there is no reason for strong fears to be present, lower > volatility is logical. Right now, the big fear is further > rate hikes by the Feds, esp with Mr. G speaking on Thursday. > So yesterday's jump in VIX didn't surprise me, in fact I > would have been surprised had it stayed down. If I see VIX > rising sharply, it would serve as an addl indicator of a > change in "M". > > Tom Worley Not sure what the difference is between "complacency" and "low level of emotional fear", but I think you overlook the point of the volatility indicator (at least as accepted by those who follow it closely). I've been deposing a string of psychologists and psychiatrist of late (from Burlington to Boston to Louisville to Albuquerque), and they could probably explain it in a way that would spin our heads. Anyway, as an example of how the indicator is traditionally viewed, check this chart out: http://decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/CurrentVIX.html (And check out the "About the VIX" link) The spike down near a two year low on Friday last showed extraordinary "complacency/low level of emotional fear/bullishness", not seen since the beginning of the last major downward, intermediate term CANSLIM "M" phase, July '98. It may well mark the top of this intermediate term move from October '98 (the start of which was likewise marked by a VIX two year extreme). With 4 distribution days in the Nasdaq (the clear leader index from the Oct. low), sentiment numbers out of whack for months, leadership long since faded away (the I-nuts), A/D in horrible shape, I'd be hoping for a good rally attempt here to move to cash in my weaker positions (if stops aren't in place and taking you out). Mr. G? Whose he, some noise-maker? Thanks for the responses, Tom. Jeffry - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Earl Setser" Subject: [CANSLIM] M Date: 21 Jul 1999 21:31:19 -0700 I know this is a day late.. but I noticed we have 4 distribution days in the last 11 for the NASDAQ. The DOW is even worse with 5 distribution days in the last 11. Sounds like a classic sign of a market top according to WON. I moved out of my weakest stock today and am close on the next weakest link. Comments?? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Lynch" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M Date: 22 Jul 1999 16:48:28 +1200 Earl, I believe that this is more likely to be an short term market top as you expect to get 22 1/2%-66% retracements on any significant rise before the longer term rise continues. If you look at the indexes on a daily basis from June 14 you get: -- INX2, CBOE internet index, has done a 50% retracement and turned today -- IXIC, NASDAQ, has done a 25% retracement and turned today -- DJI, Dow Industrials has retraced 22 1/2% and may have turned this afternoon with a double bottom on the 5 minute chart around 3pm. -- SPX, S&P 500 has retraced 33% and seemed to turn today. I guess my point is that the number of distribution days is only relevant in terms of the overall move since June 14 and that if you look back over the years you see alot of similar retracements on strong intermediate term rises with strong rises following. 1997 is a good example although it does suggest some caution in an October timeframe :-) Regards, John -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Earl Setser Sent: Thursday, 22 July 1999 16:31 I know this is a day late.. but I noticed we have 4 distribution days in the last 11 for the NASDAQ. The DOW is even worse with 5 distribution days in the last 11. Sounds like a classic sign of a market top according to WON. I moved out of my weakest stock today and am close on the next weakest link. Comments?? - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] Re: VIX Date: 22 Jul 1999 06:42:02 +0100 Dear Tom, Looking at your chart http://www.decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/CurrentVIX.html suggest that overall trendline for th VIX has increased (ie more positive values) with some short-term sharp increases. During the same time, the S&P100 has increased from 300 to 700 suggesting to me that an overall increase in VIX is associated with an increase in the S&P. I presumably am reading this wrong or misunderstanding the comments on VIX! Did you buy MSS when it broke out? It was on your list the other day. Best wishes, Marc ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Thursday, July 22, 1999 2:24 AM > Just in case I might have confused anyone, please understand > that the VIX is a "volatility" index. Thus as volatility > increases, so does VIX. Thus an inverse relationship is a > positive sign (e.g. as VIX drops, OEX, R2000, etc go up in > value). What I have found is that when volatility is down > (e.g. VIX is down, preferably under 20), then the CANSLIM > environment (e.g. "M") is more favorable to CANSLIMers. So > all these scientific analysis of VIX versus any price based > indexes that shows an inverse relationship just proves my > point. I want VIX to go down, cuz that helps make my > portfolio value go up! > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Johan Van Houtven > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Date: Wednesday, July 21, 1999 4:50 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: VIX > > > At 11:34 AM 7/21/99 -0400, you wrote: > > > >With regard to the VIX, I have somewhere on my hard drive, > or or > >in my URL's a nice graph showing that there is an inverse > >relationship between the russell 5000 (small cap stocks) > and the > >vix, that is, when the VIX peaks small caps tank and when > vix > >declines small caps go up. For those of you with QP2, > check out > >this relationship by overlaying VIX (!VIX) to the > russell-500 > >(!RUT). > > !RUT in QPv2 = Russell 2000 (Not 5000 nor 500.) > > Overlay the !VIX with the !OEX. Yep, the VIX moves in the > opposite > direction as the !OEX (S&P 100). And the OEX doesn't contain > than many > small cap co's AFAIK. > > > > > Johan === > > > > - > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mikelu" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] VIX - Tom W. Date: 22 Jul 1999 01:46:50 -0700 I'm using stops, because I didn't know how else to choose the "weaker" stocks. This time around, I've switched to using Cynthia Kase's 3rd level Dev Stop as my stop instead of a 20-day low stop. I gave back too much profit the last time the market corrected. We'll see how it works out this time. Mike -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of postwhit@sover.net Sent: Wednesday, July 21, 1999 3:11 PM With 4 distribution days in the Nasdaq (the clear leader index from the Oct. low), sentiment numbers out of whack for months, leadership long since faded away (the I-nuts), A/D in horrible shape, I'd be hoping for a good rally attempt here to move to cash in my weaker positions (if stops aren't in place and taking you out). Mr. G? Whose he, some noise-maker? Thanks for the responses, Tom. Jeffry - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: VIX Date: 22 Jul 1999 07:44:49 -0400 Hi Marc, I never meant to suggest that stock prices could not rise in times of high volatility. In fact, the internet sector both contributed directly to volatility as well as to new record highs. My point is simply that I have found that periods of low volatility are better for CANSLIM style investing, as it permits things to trade more on their true fundamentals and less on emotion. I didn't post the chart, but did enjoy looking at it. I missed MSS, as well as several other very nice breakouts on my watch list. Just to busy at work, and too many hours working, to concentrate on making money. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Dear Tom, Looking at your chart http://www.decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/CurrentVIX.html suggest that overall trendline for th VIX has increased (ie more positive values) with some short-term sharp increases. During the same time, the S&P100 has increased from 300 to 700 suggesting to me that an overall increase in VIX is associated with an increase in the S&P. I presumably am reading this wrong or misunderstanding the comments on VIX! Did you buy MSS when it broke out? It was on your list the other day. Best wishes, Marc - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] IRL - help please Date: 22 Jul 1999 21:26:00 +0200 I've just installed the IRL (http://www.industrymonitors.com). But I'm have some problems. Is there anyone who can help me out? I have not been able to replicate the IRL rankings as displayed on http://www.hgsinvestor.com/irl_rankings.html. I get a display with all the available IRL groups. I probably have to delete all the non-HGS groups. Is this correct? And I have choosen Equal Dollar Weighted Index as Index Type when installing the IRL. Is this the best choice? Can I change this \ do I need to? Johan === - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Lynch" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M -- humility Date: 23 Jul 1999 09:07:59 +1200 And it only takes a couple of words from Mr Greenspan :-) -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of John Lynch Sent: Thursday, 22 July 1999 16:48 Earl, I believe that this is more likely to be an short term market top as you expect to get 22 1/2%-66% retracements on any significant rise before the longer term rise continues. If you look at the indexes on a daily basis from June 14 you get: -- INX2, CBOE internet index, has done a 50% retracement and turned today -- IXIC, NASDAQ, has done a 25% retracement and turned today -- DJI, Dow Industrials has retraced 22 1/2% and may have turned this afternoon with a double bottom on the 5 minute chart around 3pm. -- SPX, S&P 500 has retraced 33% and seemed to turn today. I guess my point is that the number of distribution days is only relevant in terms of the overall move since June 14 and that if you look back over the years you see alot of similar retracements on strong intermediate term rises with strong rises following. 1997 is a good example although it does suggest some caution in an October timeframe :-) Regards, John -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Earl Setser Sent: Thursday, 22 July 1999 16:31 I know this is a day late.. but I noticed we have 4 distribution days in the last 11 for the NASDAQ. The DOW is even worse with 5 distribution days in the last 11. Sounds like a classic sign of a market top according to WON. I moved out of my weakest stock today and am close on the next weakest link. Comments?? - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] Whose M? Date: 22 Jul 1999 18:30:53 -0400 > Date: Thu, 22 Jul 1999 16:48:28 +1200 > From: "John Lynch" > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M > > Earl, > > I believe that this is more likely to be an short term market top as you > expect to get 22 1/2%-66% retracements on any significant rise before the > longer term rise continues. If you look at the indexes on a daily basis > from June 14 you get: > > -- INX2, CBOE internet index, has done a 50% retracement and turned today > -- IXIC, NASDAQ, has done a 25% retracement and turned today > -- DJI, Dow Industrials has retraced 22 1/2% and may have turned this > afternoon with a double bottom on the 5 minute chart around 3pm. > -- SPX, S&P 500 has retraced 33% and seemed to turn today. > > I guess my point is that the number of distribution days is only relevant in > terms of the overall move since June 14 and that if you look back over the > years you see alot of similar retracements on strong intermediate term rises > with strong rises following. 1997 is a good example although it does > suggest some caution in an October timeframe :-) > > Regards, John > Earl's call is MANSLIC (and a disciplined read, IMHO), your's is apparently Fibbonacci based (perhaps), has nothing to do with MANSLIC, is full of opinion and speculation and contains comments (like "number of distribution days is only relevant) without substantiation or qualification. Perhaps a longer, more detailed post would get me out of the weeds here. What has this post got to do with MANSLIC? Nice read, Earl. Not sure I agree with the number of days in your INDU count, but I think you've got the NAS pegged. 7/6, 7/12, 7/13 and 7/20. What are the leaders of the run since Oct. doing? Where is sentiment? What is VIX (as a sentiment indicator) telling you? Who is this Mr. Greenspan, anyway? Watch the rally attempt for signs of failure, set your stops, adhere to your sell discipline. Keep your eye on the bouncing ball, Earl. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.... Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] The Green One Date: 22 Jul 1999 18:36:37 -0400 Tom W. wrote: > Mr. Greenspan is likely the single most influential > individual in the financial markets, not just here in the > USA but in the world. Whether or not I always agree with him > won't change that, so whatever he says is worth listening to > if for no other reason than trying to guess how it will > influence the markets over the next month or so. There are > many media airhead commentators that I would gleefully enter > in a global "noisemaker" contest, Mr. G is not one of them. He's a jawboning, noise making huckster, IMHO. When he moves rates and takes other action, it's significant. When he speaks at a cocktail party (trying to manipulate the markets), it's like watching Dan Rather....48 Hours on Jawbone Street... With all due respect to the Big Green One, of course.... ;) Jeff - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Y2K Compliant (Fw: Y2K Fix) - totally off topic Date: 22 Jul 1999 20:55:25 -0400 Hi all, Tried to send this two nites ago, but xmission was going thru its "anti-spam" mode and didn't like it. Here it is again. -----Original Message----- Hi all, As my inner turmoil grew over what was really going to be encountered come midnight of New Year's Eve, I recently ran a diagnostic to tell me just how compliant my PC really is. Tried to find the address for the utility with no success but will keep looking. Anyway, I'm lucky, my PC will simply loose track of the year, and think it's back to the year of its birth (or at least its technology - 1980). Apparently to computers life as we know it didn't exist prior to 1980. More recently, I got the tip below from an internet friend. Made sense, so tried it tonight since I had an easy and short work day. After implementing it, ran two simple tests. First, I reset my clock to just before midnight on Dec 31, 1999 and let it move past the deadline. Voila, it now showed Jan 1, 2000 without fail. Next, I reset it to about five minutes prior midnight, and shut down. When I booted back up apparently in the new millenium, the clock was fine, and showing the apparent correct time and date. I ran this two step test since I also run a simple utility in the background to keep my internal clock accurate. This way, it was inhibited from updating the clock. As simple as this solution seems, it appears to work. Don't know why Mr. Softie hasn't advertised it more. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html >> > >> > Double click on "My Computer". >> > >> > Double click on "Control Panel". >> > >> > Double click on "Regional Settings" icon. >> > >> > Click on the "Date" tab at the top of the page. >> > >> > Where it says, "Short Date Sample", look and see if it shows a "two >> > digit" year. Of course it does. That's the default setting for Windows >> 95, >> > Windows 98 and NT. This date RIGHT HERE is the date that feeds >> > application software and WILL NOT rollover in the year 2000. It will >roll >> > over to 00. >> > >> > Click on the button across from "Short Date Style" >> > and select the option that shows, mm/dd/yyyy. >> > (Be sure your selection has four Y's showing, not two) >> > >> > VERY IMPORTANT: >> > >> > Then click on "Apply" and then click on "OK" at the bottom. >> > >> > Easy enough to fix. However, every single installation >> > of Windows worldwide is defaulted to fail Y2K rollover. >> > >> > How many people know about it? How many people know to change >> > that? >> > What will be the effect? Who knows? But this is another example of >> > the pervasiveness and systematic nature of the problem. >> > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Quiet Date: 23 Jul 1999 10:53:27 +0200 It is very quiet on the list. I'd like to hear from all of you about your current feelings/opinion on the market and the stocks you are holding or recentely sold are. Why? Because I'd like to gauge the sentiment in our group. We need to hold at exactly the points we are now (breakout) for the index charts to remain healthy IMO. -- Johan Van Houtven - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Surindra Singh" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Quiet Date: 23 Jul 1999 05:17:43 -0400 Johan: I have seen in the past that this list gets very quite when the market goes south in general. THQI was on my watch list. Despite good earnings, it went down thursday morning. When it started to recover, I bought some for long. Good canslim numbers: EPS rank 99, RS 85, PE (if that matters at all) 15, management owns about 6% and banks etc. 15%. The graph is impressive. I am holding on to few: JAKK GEHL ZOMX NITE DELL VISX to name a few. Not all fit all the canslim properties though. Have a wonderful friday and weekend. Regards Surindra ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, July 23, 1999 4:53 AM > It is very quiet on the list. > > I'd like to hear from all of you about your current feelings/opinion on the > market and the stocks you are holding or recentely sold are. Why? Because > I'd like to gauge the sentiment in our group. > > We need to hold at exactly the points we are now (breakout) for the index > charts to remain healthy IMO. > > > > > -- Johan Van Houtven > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Surindra Singh" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fw: Y2K Compliant (Fw: Y2K Fix) - totally off topic Date: 23 Jul 1999 05:36:50 -0400 Good morning Tom I found this interesting that even mail from you unrelated to canslim was rejected during "anti-spam" mode. Regards and have a nice day Surindra ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Thursday, July 22, 1999 8:55 PM > Hi all, > > Tried to send this two nites ago, but xmission was going > thru its "anti-spam" mode and didn't like it. Here it is > again. > > -----Original Message----- > From: Tom Worley > To: CANSLIM > Date: Tuesday, July 20, 1999 10:25 PM > Subject: Y2K Compliant (Fw: Y2K Fix) > > > Hi all, > > As my inner turmoil grew over what was really going to be > encountered come midnight of New Year's Eve, I recently ran > a diagnostic to tell me just how compliant my PC really is. > Tried to find the address for the utility with no success > but will keep looking. Anyway, I'm lucky, my PC will simply > loose track of the year, and think it's back to the year of > its birth (or at least its technology - 1980). Apparently to > computers life as we know it didn't exist prior to 1980. > > More recently, I got the tip below from an internet friend. > Made sense, so tried it tonight since I had an easy and > short work day. After implementing it, ran two simple tests. > First, I reset my clock to just before midnight on Dec 31, > 1999 and let it move past the deadline. Voila, it now showed > Jan 1, 2000 without fail. Next, I reset it to about five > minutes prior midnight, and shut down. When I booted back up > apparently in the new millenium, the clock was fine, and > showing the apparent correct time and date. I ran this two > step test since I also run a simple utility in the > background to keep my internal clock accurate. This way, it > was inhibited from updating the clock. > > As simple as this solution seems, it appears to work. Don't > know why Mr. Softie hasn't advertised it more. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > >> > > >> > Double click on "My Computer". > >> > > >> > Double click on "Control Panel". > >> > > >> > Double click on "Regional Settings" icon. > >> > > >> > Click on the "Date" tab at the top of the page. > >> > > >> > Where it says, "Short Date Sample", look and see if it > shows a "two > >> > digit" year. Of course it does. That's the default > setting for Windows > >> 95, > >> > Windows 98 and NT. This date RIGHT HERE is the date > that feeds > >> > application software and WILL NOT rollover in the year > 2000. It will > >roll > >> > over to 00. > >> > > >> > Click on the button across from "Short Date Style" > >> > and select the option that shows, mm/dd/yyyy. > >> > (Be sure your selection has four Y's showing, not > two) > >> > > >> > VERY IMPORTANT: > >> > > >> > Then click on "Apply" and then click on "OK" at the > bottom. > >> > > >> > Easy enough to fix. However, every single > installation > >> > of Windows worldwide is defaulted to fail Y2K > rollover. > >> > > >> > How many people know about it? How many people know > to change > >> > that? > >> > What will be the effect? Who knows? But this is > another example of > >> > the pervasiveness and systematic nature of the problem. > >> > > > > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Pinakin Patel Subject: [CANSLIM] Hi all Date: 23 Jul 1999 11:24:42 +0100 Hi all, I am still in the process =27learning=27 by means of doing background = reading on CANSLIM, so I am unable to make much of a contribution at the = moment - but the e-mails being posted on the group are beginning to make = more sense=21 For your information there was an article in one of yesterday=27s = newspaper which commented on a report about wall street earnings forecasts;= =22* a pair of websites * streetIQ.com and EarningsWhispers.com * = routinely provide better estimates of corporate earnings than the biggest = Wall Street firms. A study of 101 hi-tech companies showed that estimates = by the websites were on average, off by only 21% while the Wall Street = forecasts were adrift by 44%=22. Regards Pinakin=20 London (UK) = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =20 CRESTCo Ltd. The views expressed above are not necessarily those 33 Cannon Street. held by CRESTCo Limited. London EC4M 5SB (UK) +44 (0) 171 849 0000 http://www.crestco.co.uk - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hi all Date: 23 Jul 1999 06:53:59 -0400 Of the two, www.EarningsWhisper.com provides broader coverage. It is a one man operation being run on five servers out of his brother's basement out in the Midwest. So far looks useful. There is another one as well, www.whispernumber.com which is mostly big cap stocks. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Hi all, I am still in the process 'learning' by means of doing background reading on CANSLIM, so I am unable to make much of a contribution at the moment - but the e-mails being posted on the group are beginning to make more sense! For your information there was an article in one of yesterday's newspaper which commented on a report about wall street earnings forecasts; "* a pair of websites * streetIQ.com and EarningsWhispers.com * routinely provide better estimates of corporate earnings than the biggest Wall Street firms. A study of 101 hi-tech companies showed that estimates by the websites were on average, off by only 21% while the Wall Street forecasts were adrift by 44%". Regards Pinakin London (UK) ----------------- CRESTCo Ltd. The views expressed above are not necessarily those 33 Cannon Street. held by CRESTCo Limited. London EC4M 5SB (UK) +44 (0) 171 849 0000 http://www.crestco.co.uk ----------------- - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fw: Y2K Compliant (Fw: Y2K Fix) - totally off topic Date: 23 Jul 1999 06:56:21 -0400 Was nothing personal, just xmission trying to improve the site, but proved out badly as it rejected lots of legitimate email (not just off topic). I'm just one of 700 some members, I have no special power or authority, just a frequent contributor. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- totally off topic Good morning Tom I found this interesting that even mail from you unrelated to canslim was rejected during "anti-spam" mode. Regards and have a nice day Surindra ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Thursday, July 22, 1999 8:55 PM off topic > Hi all, > > Tried to send this two nites ago, but xmission was going > thru its "anti-spam" mode and didn't like it. Here it is > again. > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: mckeen@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO Online Date: 23 Jul 1999 07:27:17 -0500 (CDT) Tom, Thanks for the update. Considering their 7-day trial period for $19.95. Didn't receive the printed version this week, and I'm quite lost without that. Mary You wrote: For those members subscribing, or considering subscribing, to Daily Graphs Online, thought you'd like to know they plan a new software release Sep 1. There are apparently many new features, but two I know of are a daily (vs weekly) update on earnings data; and a Datablock for all stocks, not just those in the books. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Green One Date: 23 Jul 1999 14:06:10 GMT On Thu, 22 Jul 1999 18:36:37 -0400, you wrote: :Tom W. wrote: : : :> Mr. Greenspan is likely the single most influential :> individual in the financial markets, not just here in the :> USA but in the world. Whether or not I always agree with him :> won't change that, so whatever he says is worth listening to :> if for no other reason than trying to guess how it will :> influence the markets over the next month or so. There are :> many media airhead commentators that I would gleefully enter :> in a global "noisemaker" contest, Mr. G is not one of them. : :He's a jawboning, noise making huckster, IMHO. When he moves rates and :takes other action, it's significant. When he speaks at a cocktail :party (trying to manipulate the markets), it's like watching Dan :Rather....48 Hours on Jawbone Street... : :With all due respect to the Big Green One, of course.... ;) : :Jeff "Huckster"... Come on, Jeff. That's not "due respect", and your qualification doesn't legitimize this cheap characterization. I know you can do better than that. BTW, I do not watch Dan Rather or 48 hours (on any street). And I doubt that you've any info (reliable or not) what Alan G. may have said at a cocktail party, not that it matters much... Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Chris Hudson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Green One Date: 23 Jul 1999 09:12:33 -0500 *grin* I agree! -- Chris :He's a jawboning, noise making huckster, IMHO. When he moves rates and :takes other action, it's significant. When he speaks at a cocktail :party (trying to manipulate the markets), it's like watching Dan :Rather....48 Hours on Jawbone Street... : :With all due respect to the Big Green One, of course.... ;) : :Jeff - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Quiet Date: 23 Jul 1999 16:39:22 +0100 Dear Johan, I've been stopped out on XETA, NXTL, POWI and some others. I still hold MSS, DTM, SRDX, ACTU and BOBJ - all bought in the last 2 weeks and near their pivot points in some cases. I try and let the general market tell its story and the leaders are falling not leading. As such, its not the best market to buy. Having said that, I did not buy QCOM when it broke out because I thought the market was inappropriate and QCOM is/was a true leader that did very well. I am trying to refine my understanding of stocks within groups to pick out when groups are being accumulated. I did post earlier that group RS seemed to change late after group accumulation or distribution. This was especially obvious with the internet stocks (where it was maximum for too long) and computer software enterprise where it started rising long after group accumulation had already started. I thought it would be useful if DGO could calculate and publish a group A/D index from 1 to 99 for the prior 3 months. This would show changes in group accumulation more quickly thus allowing focused examination of the best few stocks. I try and do this with the 2.5 thousand on DGO anyway. If anyone thinks that might be useful, please let me know what they think or how it could be refined. Maybe we could split up group examination, as it takes too long for us as individuals to do? Best, Marc ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, July 23, 1999 9:53 AM > It is very quiet on the list. > > I'd like to hear from all of you about your current feelings/opinion on the > market and the stocks you are holding or recentely sold are. Why? Because > I'd like to gauge the sentiment in our group. > > We need to hold at exactly the points we are now (breakout) for the index > charts to remain healthy IMO. > > > > > -- Johan Van Houtven > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Squires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Quiet Date: 23 Jul 1999 11:01:40 -0500 Johan, Some observations... GREAT EARNINGS!!!!........market drops. If the market can't go up on good news what will drive it higher? Valuation is now an issue for institutions. Bad seasonal period for stocks Sentiment has been bullish for months. The VIX warning has been well noted. Distribution in the indices Recently I have also notice some low volume breakouts and breakout failures. A few weeks back the market looked great and I was almost fully margined now I am only holding AMGN. I'm watching the next rally to see what it tells me. I'm not particularly worried about the bond market unless yields climb/drop significantly. The stock market basically ignored the rise in yields during the most recent rally and then sold off as yields dropped. That said I am bullish for the very short-term. The market has corrected strongly and there was a HUGE 1400+ down tick near yesterday's low. TICK is a short-term sentiment indicator that can help signal bottoms. I am looking for a retest of the intraday low that holds......that could lead to a rally. Strong stock at the 50-day MA BRCM,IBM,CSCO,SLR,CREE,OCLI,MOT,TXN,TER,CC and BBY(close) Stocks that acted well during the sell-off AMGN,GLW,BGEN,CMVT,PSXI,SDLI,GDT,EXDS,CYMI,ETEK,JNPR,LSI et al. Good Trading DSquires Johan Van Houtven wrote: > > It is very quiet on the list. > > I'd like to hear from all of you about your current feelings/opinion on the > market and the stocks you are holding or recentely sold are. Why? Because > I'd like to gauge the sentiment in our group. > > We need to hold at exactly the points we are now (breakout) for the index > charts to remain healthy IMO. > > -- Johan Van Houtven > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Anonymous Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Green One Date: 22 Jul 1999 23:16:13 -0000 IMHO- Like it or not, Mr. Greenspan has more power and influence in this world than any of our elected representatives. That includes local, regional and national elections. His effect on M and the perception of M should never be underestimated. Even though he is wordy and vague, I would not consider anything he ever says as noise. At 06:36 PM 7/22/99 -0400, you wrote: >Tom W. wrote: > > >> Mr. Greenspan is likely the single most influential >> individual in the financial markets, not just here in the >> USA but in the world. Whether or not I always agree with him >> won't change that, so whatever he says is worth listening to >> if for no other reason than trying to guess how it will >> influence the markets over the next month or so. There are >> many media airhead commentators that I would gleefully enter >> in a global "noisemaker" contest, Mr. G is not one of them. > >He's a jawboning, noise making huckster, IMHO. When he moves rates and >takes other action, it's significant. When he speaks at a cocktail >party (trying to manipulate the markets), it's like watching Dan >Rather....48 Hours on Jawbone Street... > >With all due respect to the Big Green One, of course.... ;) > >Jeff - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Green One Date: 23 Jul 1999 19:40:57 +0200 At 11:16 PM 7/22/99 -0000, you wrote: >IMHO- Like it or not, Mr. Greenspan has more power and influence in >this world than any of our elected representatives. That includes >local, regional and national elections. His effect on M and the >perception of M should never be underestimated. Even though he is >wordy and vague, I would not consider anything he ever says as noise. In MANSLIC terms it is noise. In economic terms it is not noise. It is IMHO very important to make this distinction. It is our goal as 'SLIC' men to ride the uplegs of the market. Even if we personally think that due to economic reasons we should be bearish, we must put those thoughts aside. We must always look at the market ('M') as objectively as we can. WON gave us the tools to do that. The market is the result of the thoughts of millions. Wether they are right or wrong economically is immaterial. It is not our goal to be right about the economy. It is our goal to be right about 'M' in order to make money. No matter how stupid we think a rally might be from an economic viewpoint, it doesn't matter. What matters is making (preferably big) money. I'm sure that Jeffry could write all of the above much more elegantly and without any spelling or syntax errors, but this is the best I can do as a NRA (Non Resident Alien). B^) [They truely use this term in brokerage account papers.] Johan === - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mikelu" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Quiet Date: 23 Jul 1999 13:39:59 -0700 Stopped out of AEOS, TLAB, SUNW, CSCO, IBM, AGN, CLFY, LU, CMVT, MSFT, DRTE, JDSU, TAN, GNSS. Still in TYC, RMDY, FAST, UVN, MEDI, VRTS. Mike -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Johan Van Houtven Sent: Friday, July 23, 1999 1:53 AM It is very quiet on the list. I'd like to hear from all of you about your current feelings/opinion on the market and the stocks you are holding or recentely sold are. Why? Because I'd like to gauge the sentiment in our group. We need to hold at exactly the points we are now (breakout) for the index charts to remain healthy IMO. -- Johan Van Houtven - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] M - Earl Date: 23 Jul 1999 20:25:12 -0400 > Date: Wed, 21 Jul 1999 21:31:19 -0700 > From: "Earl Setser" > Subject: [CANSLIM] M > > I know this is a day late.. but > > I noticed we have 4 distribution days in the last 11 for the NASDAQ. The > DOW is even worse with 5 distribution days in the last 11. Sounds like a > classic sign of a market top according to WON. I moved out of my weakest > stock today and am close on the next weakest link. Comments?? Yeah, I see 5 on the INDU. 6,8,13,15,20? If those are the days you are counting, I have a comment or three. If they are not the one's you are counting, Earl, then I probably have more comments!! ;) On the Nas, a correction....6,12,15,20,22? Are those the day's you are using for signals? Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO Online Date: 23 Jul 1999 21:53:22 -0400 They will be releasing new software sometime in September, complete with sig enhancements. You may want to wait till then, as you can only take the trial every six months or so. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Tom, Thanks for the update. Considering their 7-day trial period for $19.95. Didn't receive the printed version this week, and I'm quite lost without that. Mary You wrote: For those members subscribing, or considering subscribing, to Daily Graphs Online, thought you'd like to know they plan a new software release Sep 1. There are apparently many new features, but two I know of are a daily (vs weekly) update on earnings data; and a Datablock for all stocks, not just those in the books. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Green One Date: 23 Jul 1999 22:32:42 -0400 Johan, To a degree, I agree with you. But just to a degree, and there are 360 of them in a circle, and that's what the media usually has investors going in. It is also important to recognize when fear and emotion (most especially greed) has investors normally acting in a sane way buying or selling stocks that in a calmer and more rational mood they would laugh at. One example, of course, is the internut stocks, where some sanity over valuation, growth and competition prospects, future earnings (or at least lower losses) etc has finally crept into the picture. Another example is the oil producers and related industries, where crude prices could simply not remain so historically low forever. The first example is pure momentum, which is a portion of CANSLIM. The latter example is value, which is also a portion of CANSLIM. Both were affected by "M". Where I strongly disagree is in seeing (or thinking) of Mr. G as only economics related or as noise in a CANSLIM environment. "M" is the toughest of the seven letters that matter, and Mr. G, and economics, are both major influences on that. You can try to evaluate "M" purely on the basis of TA, distribution days, etc. But those are all backward looking data. Even WON in his book talks briefly of the influence of news and economics on "M". Ignoring this in a CANSLIM investing strategy is to ignore both short and mid term influences. And yes, some of those influences will be reflected in emotion and fear rather than rational thinking, but being in touch with that can affect your judgement in a very positive and profitable way. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- At 11:16 PM 7/22/99 -0000, you wrote: >IMHO- Like it or not, Mr. Greenspan has more power and influence in >this world than any of our elected representatives. That includes >local, regional and national elections. His effect on M and the >perception of M should never be underestimated. Even though he is >wordy and vague, I would not consider anything he ever says as noise. In MANSLIC terms it is noise. In economic terms it is not noise. It is IMHO very important to make this distinction. It is our goal as 'SLIC' men to ride the uplegs of the market. Even if we personally think that due to economic reasons we should be bearish, we must put those thoughts aside. We must always look at the market ('M') as objectively as we can. WON gave us the tools to do that. The market is the result of the thoughts of millions. Wether they are right or wrong economically is immaterial. It is not our goal to be right about the economy. It is our goal to be right about 'M' in order to make money. No matter how stupid we think a rally might be from an economic viewpoint, it doesn't matter. What matters is making (preferably big) money. I'm sure that Jeffry could write all of the above much more elegantly and without any spelling or syntax errors, but this is the best I can do as a NRA (Non Resident Alien). B^) [They truely use this term in brokerage account papers.] Johan === - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: [CANSLIM] Number of Holdings (was Quiet) Date: 23 Jul 1999 22:57:14 -0400 Mike, I'm curious: this seems like a lot of stocks. Were you holding all of these at once? What do you do to follow them all? I'm not being critical, just trying to understand. How many stocks do others in the group hold? For the record, my portfolio is divided into 4 positions. I have rarely been able to be fully invested with CANSLIM stocks even with this small number. In answer to the original question, I was recently stopped out of HH when it spiked down below 19. Unfortunately it rose back up above 20 and closed with a slight gain that day. I am still holding CSCO and ARMHY. I am feeling skittish about ARMHY as it fell 8 points this week to about 42. - Hugh mikelu wrote: > Stopped out of AEOS, TLAB, SUNW, CSCO, IBM, AGN, CLFY, LU, CMVT, MSFT, DRTE, > JDSU, TAN, GNSS. > > Still in TYC, RMDY, FAST, UVN, MEDI, VRTS. > > Mike > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Johan Van Houtven > Sent: Friday, July 23, 1999 1:53 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Quiet > > It is very quiet on the list. > > I'd like to hear from all of you about your current feelings/opinion on the > market and the stocks you are holding or recentely sold are. Why? Because > I'd like to gauge the sentiment in our group. > > We need to hold at exactly the points we are now (breakout) for the index > charts to remain healthy IMO. > > -- Johan Van Houtven > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Number of Holdings (was Quiet) Date: 23 Jul 1999 20:38:31 -0700 Intraday will get ya every time. I'm still in HH and I suspect I have the same mental stop as your hard one. At 10:57 PM 7/23/99 -0400, you wrote: >Mike, > >I'm curious: this seems like a lot of stocks. Were you holding all of these at >once? What do you do to follow them all? I'm not being critical, just >trying to >understand. > >How many stocks do others in the group hold? > >For the record, my portfolio is divided into 4 positions. I have rarely been >able to be fully invested with CANSLIM stocks even with this small number. > >In answer to the original question, I was recently stopped out of HH when it >spiked down below 19. Unfortunately it rose back up above 20 and closed with a >slight gain that day. I am still holding CSCO and ARMHY. I am feeling skittish >about ARMHY as it fell 8 points this week to about 42. > >- Hugh > >mikelu wrote: > > > Stopped out of AEOS, TLAB, SUNW, CSCO, IBM, AGN, CLFY, LU, CMVT, MSFT, > DRTE, > > JDSU, TAN, GNSS. > > > > Still in TYC, RMDY, FAST, UVN, MEDI, VRTS. > > > > Mike > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Johan Van Houtven > > Sent: Friday, July 23, 1999 1:53 AM > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Quiet > > > > It is very quiet on the list. > > > > I'd like to hear from all of you about your current feelings/opinion on the > > market and the stocks you are holding or recentely sold are. Why? Because > > I'd like to gauge the sentiment in our group. > > > > We need to hold at exactly the points we are now (breakout) for the index > > charts to remain healthy IMO. > > > > -- Johan Van Houtven > > > > - > > > > - > > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Earl Setser" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Quiet Date: 23 Jul 1999 21:52:09 -0700 Johan As a newer CANSLIMer, I'm pretty nervous right now. I jumped out of AEOS and TTIL over the last couple of days, and have tightened up my stops on my other two holdings. The distributions days, the weak rallies, and the leaders failing all look bad. I also moved my 401K out of company stock. The weakness seems worse and worse, so it's time to watch and wait, for me anyway. At 10:53 AM 7/23/99 +0200, you wrote: >It is very quiet on the list. > >I'd like to hear from all of you about your current feelings/opinion on the >market and the stocks you are holding or recentely sold are. Why? Because >I'd like to gauge the sentiment in our group. > >We need to hold at exactly the points we are now (breakout) for the index >charts to remain healthy IMO. > > > > >-- Johan Van Houtven > > > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Earl Setser" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Earl Date: 23 Jul 1999 22:04:42 -0700 Oh-oh. Now I've gotta find the dates. FYI, I generally just look at the charts on Clear Station and look for "Red" volume days higher than the day before. I then count back to see how many distribution days over a 2 week period or so. Looking at bigcharts, for DJIA I see 6, 8, 13, 20... for NASDAQ I see 6, 12, 13, 20, 22. Yes, I match up with you except for 15 on the DOW. I think I had one day with even volume that I counted on that one, so I guess I need to make it four. I haven't been looking for up volume days with little price progress. This isn't too hard to do, but looking at the red and blue lines makes it very simple to get a quick idea of what the M is saying. At 08:25 PM 7/23/99 -0400, you wrote: >> Date: Wed, 21 Jul 1999 21:31:19 -0700 >> From: "Earl Setser" >> Subject: [CANSLIM] M >> >> I know this is a day late.. but >> >> I noticed we have 4 distribution days in the last 11 for the NASDAQ. The >> DOW is even worse with 5 distribution days in the last 11. Sounds like a >> classic sign of a market top according to WON. I moved out of my weakest >> stock today and am close on the next weakest link. Comments?? > > >Yeah, I see 5 on the INDU. 6,8,13,15,20? If those are the days you are >counting, I have a comment or three. If they are not the one's you are >counting, Earl, then I probably have more comments!! ;) > >On the Nas, a correction....6,12,15,20,22? Are those the day's you are >using for signals? > >Jeffry > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Number of Holdings (was Quiet) Date: 24 Jul 1999 00:33:13 -0400 Tim, I recalled your earlier comment about this the moment I saw I was stopped out. Are you able to place orders during the day? If not, aren't you concerned about getting burned on a 20% or more drop in price during the day? This same scenario has occurred before so I'm thinking of modifying my practices and am looking for ideas. Thanks. Tim Fisher wrote: > Intraday will get ya every time. I'm still in HH and I suspect I have the > same mental stop as your hard one. > > At 10:57 PM 7/23/99 -0400, you wrote: > >Mike, > > > >I'm curious: this seems like a lot of stocks. Were you holding all of these at > >once? What do you do to follow them all? I'm not being critical, just > >trying to > >understand. > > > >How many stocks do others in the group hold? > > > >For the record, my portfolio is divided into 4 positions. I have rarely been > >able to be fully invested with CANSLIM stocks even with this small number. > > > >In answer to the original question, I was recently stopped out of HH when it > >spiked down below 19. Unfortunately it rose back up above 20 and closed with a > >slight gain that day. I am still holding CSCO and ARMHY. I am feeling skittish > >about ARMHY as it fell 8 points this week to about 42. > > > >- Hugh > > > >mikelu wrote: > > > > > Stopped out of AEOS, TLAB, SUNW, CSCO, IBM, AGN, CLFY, LU, CMVT, MSFT, > > DRTE, > > > JDSU, TAN, GNSS. > > > > > > Still in TYC, RMDY, FAST, UVN, MEDI, VRTS. > > > > > > Mike > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Johan Van Houtven > > > Sent: Friday, July 23, 1999 1:53 AM > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Quiet > > > > > > It is very quiet on the list. > > > > > > I'd like to hear from all of you about your current feelings/opinion on the > > > market and the stocks you are holding or recentely sold are. Why? Because > > > I'd like to gauge the sentiment in our group. > > > > > > We need to hold at exactly the points we are now (breakout) for the index > > > charts to remain healthy IMO. > > > > > > -- Johan Van Houtven > > > > > > - > > > > > > - > > > > > >- > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > PFB Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] M reality and fears Date: 24 Jul 1999 07:21:40 +0100 Tom, I feel you have always remained positive on M through most of the last few months - forgive me if my memory is wrong though - does that mean you would buy stocks which you feel are appropriate now? eg take MSS. It has now fallen, maybe not quite to its pivot point, but would you feel it is ok to purchase now? Thanks, Marc - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mikelu" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Number of Holdings (was Quiet) Date: 24 Jul 1999 01:59:25 -0700 I was holding them all. I'm trying to buy CANSLIM stocks on 20-day breakouts or pullbacks, and not waiting for a CANSLIM breakout. I wanted to use a mechanical system to remove emotion, and couldn't program a CANSLIM-type that was any very good. I'm using Investor/RT to track my watch list and my portfolio. I can use it to scan for the buy signals and I place hard stops on each of the stocks I buy. I can use it to calculate simple stop levels, like 20-day lows or MA's, or simple average range calculations, and then I update my stop levels whenever they've changed significantly. This program is expensive, I paid $500 and it's now $1000, but I believe mytrack.com will give it to you to use with their data. Lately, I've read Van Tharp's new book about money management "Trade your Way to Financial Freedom", and I've tried to risk the same amount on each trade and at a low enough level to reduce my risk of going broke. I learned to play blackjack so I could better understand what it feels like to lose money and apply a money management strategy. Mike -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Hugh Fader Sent: Friday, July 23, 1999 7:57 PM Mike, I'm curious: this seems like a lot of stocks. Were you holding all of these at once? What do you do to follow them all? I'm not being critical, just trying to understand. How many stocks do others in the group hold? For the record, my portfolio is divided into 4 positions. I have rarely been able to be fully invested with CANSLIM stocks even with this small number. In answer to the original question, I was recently stopped out of HH when it spiked down below 19. Unfortunately it rose back up above 20 and closed with a slight gain that day. I am still holding CSCO and ARMHY. I am feeling skittish about ARMHY as it fell 8 points this week to about 42. - Hugh mikelu wrote: > Stopped out of AEOS, TLAB, SUNW, CSCO, IBM, AGN, CLFY, LU, CMVT, MSFT, DRTE, > JDSU, TAN, GNSS. > > Still in TYC, RMDY, FAST, UVN, MEDI, VRTS. > > Mike > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Johan Van Houtven > Sent: Friday, July 23, 1999 1:53 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Quiet > > It is very quiet on the list. > > I'd like to hear from all of you about your current feelings/opinion on the > market and the stocks you are holding or recentely sold are. Why? Because > I'd like to gauge the sentiment in our group. > > We need to hold at exactly the points we are now (breakout) for the index > charts to remain healthy IMO. > > -- Johan Van Houtven > > - > > - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] The Green One Date: 24 Jul 1999 07:26:44 -0400 Johan wrote: > I'm sure that Jeffry could write all of the above much more elegantly and > without any spelling or syntax errors, but this is the best I can do as a > NRA (Non Resident Alien). B^) [They truely use this term in brokerage > account papers.] Give that NRA some papers (The Green Ones, I think), load his pockets with Leonidas Pralines and ship him over here immediately!!! Johan, forget spelling and syntax, that is perhaps one of the more *eloquent* explanations of a speculator/intermediate term investor's targeted mind-set that I have ever read. Thank you for it, it's taped to my wall. Huckster? Yeah, you're right. I meant Hypster!! :0) Cocktail parties? I'm not sure how anyone can glorify the Humphrey-Hawkins dog and pony show as anything more significant, frankly. My point, again.... Tom W. noted that he likes to try and "guess" what The Green One is going to do, based upon what he says. I can see where that might provide some entertainment and intellectual stimulation, but "guessing" is usually what gets me in trouble when I'm trading. MANSLIC, for me, is a system. Largely mechanical. And systems don't guess. If you can follow signals on a proven system (and that is a big, big IF), you will make money because the odds are stacked in your favor. More winning trades than losing trades, you know. If you can't follow a system, why have a system at all. You're flapping in a "noisy" breeze. Whether it's a Green breeze, or 48 Hours on Breeze Street breeze, or a CNBC Breeze, or some sagely cocktail party chitter-chatter breeze, if you are listening instead of watching, you'll likely lose money. If "guessing" which "noises" are pleasing and which are foul works for some, who am I to say that they shouldn't continue. I just think it is pointless, distracting, purposely vague and confusing jibber-jabber. A formula for losing money. I aspire to the ability to follow a system, at task I'm not yet able to consistently perform. Read DSquires Friday "Quiet" post again. This is the objective mental state to which I aspire. If he's listening to the cocktail party blather, he's learned well how to compartmentalize it. Got that post taped to the wall, as well. One comment on DSquires rally watch. I'm right there with him, although I confess it's not really MANSLIC based. I see no evidence of a rally, except by anticipation, based upon MANSLIC. I plan to re-read HTMMIS on rally failures this weekend. I'm playing for a rally, however, my short term work having gotten me long at week's end. regards, Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] Dr. CM - "M" Date: 24 Jul 1999 07:30:16 -0400 Good Doctor, Everytime I pass the ball to you, you're in the lane for a chippy. But, you refuse to take the shot. Here's another chance, don't disappoint. Would you provide your TA thoughts on the OEX, NAS COMP, NYSE, INDU and NDX, please? Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M reality and fears Date: 24 Jul 1999 07:49:31 -0400 Actually, Marc, I went pretty bearish (at least for me) some months ago and only became bullish again about a month back. As for MSS, I would not consider it a buy here. I put it on my watch list when it had both killer CS elements, and a nice tight long base at 8. I should have just bot it and been patient, knowing it was likely to go evenually. Instead, I watched it, got too busy at work to check my watch list daily, and it was already almost at 10 before I saw it was on the move (over 20% extended). Now, it would need to form at least a 3 to 4 week tight base around 13 before I would consider it again. And this time around, I am not impressed with the latest qtr, which is largely responsible for its move being halted. It still has strong earnings forecast, but I might want to wait until after Q1 is reported to ensure it's back on track. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -----Original Message----- Tom, I feel you have always remained positive on M through most of the last few months - forgive me if my memory is wrong though - does that mean you would buy stocks which you feel are appropriate now? eg take MSS. It has now fallen, maybe not quite to its pivot point, but would you feel it is ok to purchase now? Thanks, Marc - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Green One - JAKK Date: 24 Jul 1999 14:45:54 +0200 Tom, No matter how or what we use to determine 'M', most of us are here to make money. To make money in the Market most of us have to buy and sell stocks. Some here trade options and what have you. Let us stick to the more CANSLIM like stocks. And let us see how Mr. Greenspan or economy-related information helps you to make money effectly. We could take JAKK as an example: Up until Friday when 'M' still looked okidoki (unless you were a distribution day counter and sentiment watcher, maybe). The JAKK holder who bought at the right time had nice profits. Just for this excersize let us say we where able to buy somewhere near the breakout point. That would mean one bought on 06/30, 07/12 or even inbetween perhaps. For the excersize let us say we bought 28 7/8. After the breakout it went as high as 35 1/8. That's almost 22% profit in a 6 to 13 day timespan, depending on when you bought. Not bad! But realizing a part or all of this maximum potential profit is another matter... On Monday 19/7 JAKK broke it's trendline. On Tuesday when the NASDAQ broke it's trendline JAKK got hit even bigger. By Thursday when Greenspan was speaking, most or all of one's profits would have been gone. If I had owned JAKK I would have dumped it either on Monday near the close or Tuesday. That is just the way I trade. Not a recommandation! Now, could you please show me how Greenspan or economically related information would have made a JAKK holder sell (or buy for that matter) in a more profitable way? Or even if you do not want to let 'M' influence your buying or selling decisions on individual stocks: What 'very profitable' 'M' related information did you learn about from Mr. Greenspan that the markets didn't already show the distribution day counter/sentiment watcher/market technician? If one was truely an ecomomy wizz and it would help one to determine 'M' correctly, IMHO, one would not have bought JAKK in the first place. Since the market was clearly wrong from a ecomony/Greenspan standpoint, as it shouldn't have had this shortlived upleg as far as Greenspan is concerned. We rallied because the market basically pushed aside the possiblity of another rate hike in the near future. Then Greenspan stepped in and basically said: 'Hey guys that is not what I had in mind'. So he brought the fear back in the market. Sounds reasonable, doesn't it? But it is wrong. The 'informed' fear came back during the upleg. Informed, clever money was already selling. The distribution days show that. What their reasons for selling were, is immaterial to the objective 'M' watcher. Then on Monday we went down big and on Tuesday the short term rubberband (trendline) broke down alltogether. All of that happened BEFORE Greenspan opened his mouth on Thursday. Profitwise I see the score as 1-0 for the CS/'M' watcher/technician and 0 for the economy/Greenspan/noise listener. I hope you can prove me wrong, and that I learn something from it, so that I can trade even more profitabilly. It doesn't matter whether you prove me right or wrong, as long as it proves to be positive for other people's and my trading account I welcome it with open arms. All the best, Johan At 10:32 PM 7/23/99 -0400, you wrote: >Johan, > >To a degree, I agree with you. But just to a degree, and >there are 360 of them in a circle, and that's what the media >usually has investors going in. It is also important to >recognize when fear and emotion (most especially greed) has >investors normally acting in a sane way buying or selling >stocks that in a calmer and more rational mood they would >laugh at. > >One example, of course, is the internut stocks, where some >sanity over valuation, growth and competition prospects, >future earnings (or at least lower losses) etc has finally >crept into the picture. Another example is the oil producers >and related industries, where crude prices could simply not >remain so historically low forever. The first example is >pure momentum, which is a portion of CANSLIM. The latter >example is value, which is also a portion of CANSLIM. Both >were affected by "M". > >Where I strongly disagree is in seeing (or thinking) of Mr. >G as only economics related or as noise in a CANSLIM >environment. "M" is the toughest of the seven letters that >matter, and Mr. G, and economics, are both major influences >on that. You can try to evaluate "M" purely on the basis of >TA, distribution days, etc. But those are all backward >looking data. Even WON in his book talks briefly of the >influence of news and economics on "M". Ignoring this in a >CANSLIM investing strategy is to ignore both short and mid >term influences. And yes, some of those influences will be >reflected in emotion and fear rather than rational thinking, >but being in touch with that can affect your judgement in a >very positive and profitable way. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html Johan === - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Green One Date: 24 Jul 1999 12:02:09 +0200 Tom, Let us agree to disagree. I wouldn't want you to stop your economy related posts. I like to read them! Remember I'm interested in economy related knowledge. I just do not (or at least I try to not) let it influence my evaluation of 'M'. Anyway, here is my answer: >To a degree, I agree with you. But just to a degree, and >there are 360 of them in a circle, and that's what the media >usually has investors going in. And that is exactly what a CANSLIMer wants to avoid, i.e. going around in circles. No matter who is voicing his or her opinion be it a media commentator, Greenspan or whoever one deems important enough, it is always noise, from a CANSLIM standpoint. >It is also important to >recognize when fear and emotion (most especially greed) > has investors normally acting in a sane way buying or selling >stocks that in a calmer and more rational mood they would >laugh at. It is not fear and emotion. Both fear and greed are emotions. It is these two emotions that are reflected in what we call a price chart. If all investors acted in sane ways, there would not be a market. So if one likes to make money, one should be thankful, no matter how harse this might sound. that market participants often react emotionally. As succesful CANSLIMer doesn't react emotionally himself, but rather rides the waves produced by the emotions of the markets. >One example, of course, is the internut stocks, where some >sanity over valuation, growth and competition prospects, >future earnings (or at least lower losses) etc has finally >crept into the picture. What are the internuts an example of? And what exactly is your point with this example? The important thing IMHO, is that many a CANSLIMer on this list has made B-I-G money by riding the internet wave. And some of us still do, I'm sure. Who cares that many a internet stock went to high? Who determines what is to high? Ultimately the market determines what is a 'fair' price. We all know, or so I would hope, that many of these co's will not be around 10 years from now. Doesn't bother me at all. Commodore and Atari, some of the early computer pioneers, aren't around anymore. But some people made BIG money riding the uptrend in these co's stock prices. Succesful investors exited these stocks when the chart told them to exit. Those who kept holding for the long term lost all their money. Likewise many of us on the list have made big money on internet stocks that might not be around in a few years time. Is it important that they will not be around by then? Is it important that they might have been terribly overvalued at some point by someones valuation standard? As long as one was, is or will be able to make good money on some of these stocks, I think it doesn't matter. Even if you limit yourself to just those that are truely CANSLIM stocks. Does WON teach you how to properly value a growth stock and exit when the value is to high? I don't think so. He exits stocks based on what the charts tells you, AFAIK. And last but not least: There were and there still are many internet related companies that have good earnings, not all of them have losses! Yes, the group as a whole was strong. Just like when we buy a classic CANSLIM stock in a strong group, you will have non-CANSLIM stocks in that group making substantial advances, just because it is a strong group (or vice versa of course). >Where I strongly disagree is in seeing (or thinking) of Mr. >G as only economics related or as noise in a CANSLIM >environment. So let us agree to disagree for now. Hopefully we can ask WON at some point and get this over with. >"M" is the toughest of the seven letters that >matter, and Mr. G, and economics, are both major influences >on that. The point is that you do not have to listen to Mr. G or the economy, in order to determine 'M' as a CANSLIMer. >You can try to evaluate "M" purely on the basis of >TA, distribution days, etc. But those are all backward >looking data. Are you implying that you have access to accurate foward looking data? ;^) >Even WON in his book talks briefly of the >influence of news and economics on "M". I also look at the 90-day Treasury Bill rates and Bond prices. But that is not the same as trying to interpret Mr. G's words. There is nothing wrong with looking at data. It is the 'noise' that is the culprit. >Ignoring this in a >CANSLIM investing strategy is to ignore both short and mid >term influences. So tell me what you learned on Thursday that one could have seen comming earlier in the week. And what is even more important, what short or mid term influence have I missed by not listening to or reading about Greenspan's testimony? >And yes, some of those influences will be >reflected in emotion and fear rather than rational thinking, >but being in touch with that can affect your judgement in a >very positive and profitable way. Again, please tell e what you know that is not reflected in the charts already. I'd be delighted to learn some new tricks! One way we could put this argument behind us in a rational manner would be to prove our points by listing all our investment decisions, with accompanying arguments for making them, in near realtime for a few months or so. Alas, I can easily come up with many reasons why we would not want to do this. So we will have to agree to disagree on this matter. But if you have some 'M' influencing economic or Greenspan related information, that I don't have already by looking at the indexes, and that could make me good money in the comming weeks, then by all means, please enlight me! I'm sure that making good money in the market is a goal we both, and most of us on this list, share. All the best, Johan > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > >-----Original Message----- >From: Johan Van Houtven >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Friday, July 23, 1999 1:39 PM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Green One > > >At 11:16 PM 7/22/99 -0000, you wrote: >>IMHO- Like it or not, Mr. Greenspan has more power and >influence in >>this world than any of our elected representatives. That >includes >>local, regional and national elections. His effect on M >and the >>perception of M should never be underestimated. Even >though he is >>wordy and vague, I would not consider anything he ever says >as noise. > >In MANSLIC terms it is noise. In economic terms it is not >noise. >It is IMHO very important to make this distinction. > >It is our goal as 'SLIC' men to ride the uplegs of the >market. Even if we >personally think that due to economic reasons we should be >bearish, we must >put those thoughts aside. > >We must always look at the market ('M') as objectively as >we can. WON gave >us the tools to do that. > >The market is the result of the thoughts of millions. Wether >they are right >or wrong economically is immaterial. It is not our goal to >be right about >the economy. It is our goal to be right about 'M' in order >to make money. >No matter how stupid we think a rally might be from an >economic viewpoint, >it doesn't matter. What matters is making (preferably big) >money. > >I'm sure that Jeffry could write all of the above much more >elegantly and >without any spelling or syntax errors, but this is the best >I can do as a >NRA (Non Resident Alien). B^) [They truely use this term in >brokerage >account papers.] > > > > >Johan === > > > >- > > > >- > > Johan === - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Green One Date: 24 Jul 1999 13:38:19 GMT On Fri, 23 Jul 1999 19:40:57 +0200, you wrote: :At 11:16 PM 7/22/99 -0000, you wrote: :>IMHO- Like it or not, Mr. Greenspan has more power and influence in :>this world than any of our elected representatives. That includes :>local, regional and national elections. His effect on M and the :>perception of M should never be underestimated. Even though he is :>wordy and vague, I would not consider anything he ever says as noise. : :In MANSLIC terms it is noise. In economic terms it is not noise. :It is IMHO very important to make this distinction. : :It is our goal as 'SLIC' men to ride the uplegs of the market. Even if = we :personally think that due to economic reasons we should be bearish, we = must :put those thoughts aside. : :We must always look at the market ('M') as objectively as we can. WON = gave :us the tools to do that. : :The market is the result of the thoughts of millions. Wether they are = right :or wrong economically is immaterial. It is not our goal to be right = about :the economy. It is our goal to be right about 'M' in order to make = money. :No matter how stupid we think a rally might be from an economic = viewpoint, :it doesn't matter. What matters is making (preferably big) money. : :I'm sure that Jeffry could write all of the above much more elegantly = and :without any spelling or syntax errors, but this is the best I can do as = a :NRA (Non Resident Alien). B^) [They truely use this term in brokerage :account papers.] :Johan =3D=3D=3D : Hello again, Non Resident Alien Van Houtven... I have not been following this forum very closely lately. When did we start using MANSLIC instead of CANSLIM?=20 Now, I have no quarrel with this, in fact it makes a lot of sense to me and WON would probably approve, or at least not disapprove.=20 Your English above was nearly perfect (I did see one misspelled word, truly... [normally I would use the word "truthfully", hint, hint...] :) Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: tom Subject: [CANSLIM] Date: Sat, 24 Jul 1999 09:06:25 -0500 Date: 24 Jul 1999 08:09:14 -0600 Questions for the group. I have recently read the Anadigics (ANAD) ( not a CANSLIM eps=27%) is offering a "follow on offering" of 3 million shares. This co. has been doing well lately but promptly tanked 13+%. I am not in it. It was touted as medium sized blue chip semiconductor by an analyst recently. Thus my ?'s - 1. Is the " follow on offering " the general term for selling additional stock to the public? 2. I am surprised that there isn't stock held back or left over from the original IPO or is this not a possibility in the context of the "float"? 3. What does a follow on offering say about a co.'s credit worthiness if anything? 4. Given the dilutional aspect of the end result on the number of shares, could the market be judging the co. in ways I am not aware? 5. Are there any warnings that a "follow on offering" is about to take place? I look forward to the group's response. turban - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Number of Holdings (was Quiet) Date: 24 Jul 1999 08:25:07 -0700 I don't trade intraday, I usually put in buy and sell orders in the evening, and I have only gotten burned once (INFS). Seems a small price to pay for not churning my account. Just don't have the time for it with the new property that has 2 acres of grass to mow, a barn to paint, and a shop to insulate, plumb, and wire! At 12:33 AM 7/24/99 -0400, you wrote: >Tim, > >I recalled your earlier comment about this the moment I saw I was stopped >out. Are >you able to place orders during the day? If not, aren't you concerned >about getting >burned on a 20% or more drop in price during the day? > >This same scenario has occurred before so I'm thinking of modifying my >practices >and am looking for ideas. > >Thanks. > >Tim Fisher wrote: > > > Intraday will get ya every time. I'm still in HH and I suspect I have the > > same mental stop as your hard one. > > > > At 10:57 PM 7/23/99 -0400, you wrote: > > >Mike, > > > > > >I'm curious: this seems like a lot of stocks. Were you holding all of > these at > > >once? What do you do to follow them all? I'm not being critical, just > > >trying to > > >understand. > > > > > >How many stocks do others in the group hold? > > > > > >For the record, my portfolio is divided into 4 positions. I have > rarely been > > >able to be fully invested with CANSLIM stocks even with this small number. > > > > > >In answer to the original question, I was recently stopped out of HH > when it > > >spiked down below 19. Unfortunately it rose back up above 20 and > closed with a > > >slight gain that day. I am still holding CSCO and ARMHY. I am feeling > skittish > > >about ARMHY as it fell 8 points this week to about 42. > > > > > >- Hugh > > > > > >mikelu wrote: > > > > > > > Stopped out of AEOS, TLAB, SUNW, CSCO, IBM, AGN, CLFY, LU, CMVT, MSFT, > > > DRTE, > > > > JDSU, TAN, GNSS. > > > > > > > > Still in TYC, RMDY, FAST, UVN, MEDI, VRTS. > > > > > > > > Mike > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Johan Van Houtven > > > > Sent: Friday, July 23, 1999 1:53 AM > > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Quiet > > > > > > > > It is very quiet on the list. > > > > > > > > I'd like to hear from all of you about your current > feelings/opinion on the > > > > market and the stocks you are holding or recentely sold are. Why? > Because > > > > I'd like to gauge the sentiment in our group. > > > > > > > > We need to hold at exactly the points we are now (breakout) for the > index > > > > charts to remain healthy IMO. > > > > > > > > -- Johan Van Houtven > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > >- > > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > > PFB Information > > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > > - > > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dr. CM - "M" Date: 24 Jul 1999 11:31:46 -0400 Jeffry-- You know my weakness, don't you? Memories of the NBA: Being drafted, playing my first game against Cousy, and being invited to lunch by Connie Mack (who died before I played in Philadelphia). However, I must admonish you on your "passing," which sometimes delivers the ball at my feet, over my head, or to the opposition. Your last "pass" was delivered at the end of the half, at my feet, and without specific instructions (pass the ball back out or shoot it). You know that, for me, "M" is hardly more than a convenient confection for what is long term and, therefore, beyond me. I wouldn't know how to come by criteria for "M," though you imply that what I think about your indexes could be relevant. All five look like crap. All have pretty much the same charts. All have undergone First, Second, and Third Level Sells signals. If their downward conjunction is indicative of "M," then you may expect further fouls. I looked at 30 equity indexes: All look like crap. But, remember that I am looking at them through my 3/7/10 EMA. What you may extrapolate from the crappy dozens is that there is an early, general falling away of all equity indexes. If from this you can extrapolate that the early falling away is indicative of, say, an intermediate falling away, I don't know. Right now it would appear that the falling away is an inch thick and a mile wide. Whether there is a two inch thick and half mile falling away on the horizon, I don't know. But, whenever the "M" does begin more than a short term falling, I do know that my 3/7/10 will catch it. For a trader, there is no "M" life. He would prefer to trade the trend, for there is some safety therein. I probably make some unspecified, even unspecifiable, adjustment in my day trading. As for those adjustments, there is only the admonition of don't ask, don't tell. I don't know. As for how often I am trading and how much money I am trading, I can specify the adjustments. E.g., I am between 70 and 75 percent cash. I let all my DELL go Friday at 40.87. It went down but recovered to 41 and a fraction. I left some money out there; but I look at the 3/7/10 and can see I'm fighting a Third Level Sell signal. So, I'm real careful. Though out, I will try to trade it Monday. It has held up extremely well through the falling of the markets. I'm guessing that when the bounce comes--soon I believe--DELL will make me some money. If you look at DELL under the 3/7/10 EMA, you'll see that I'm trading it in a short term down trend. When I get a First Level Buy, I'll get 50 percent invested; and then a bit more with a Second Level Buy. That bounce, for me, has no relation to "M," unless it stands for "Mack" [or perhaps Machiavelli]. I get some Elliott wave stuff on the S & P. The market has fooled these folks, who have been calling for a bounce but have been getting a thud. They're calling for a big run up very soon. My mundane 3/7/10 says otherwise. Even the meaning of short term has its several perspectives. Long term anything in the market is a crap shoot. And crap shooters do win, but the odds are for losing. Stick the indexes against these MACDs: 12/26/9, 8/17/9, and 4/18/8. Stick the indexes against these stochastics: 12/5/10, 12/6/8, 10/3/5, 12/3/6, 5/5/3, and 5/3/3. Stick the indexes against these EMAs: 3/7/10, 5/10/15, 10/50, and 100/200. Some trader/investors do pretty well using just the 10/50 EMA. BigEasy uses it exclusively. I have always had the feeling that what O'Neill preaches with Canslim is further and furtively modified by technical indicators. The same goes for value investing or whatever you may call it. I like to read what the value folks are buying--especially when my 3/7/10 is in a First Level Buy. The wide difference between trading and "M" is the same wide difference between the NBA and WNBA. Jeffry, I have an intuition that if I called this comment a jump shot you'd have preferred a hook. Connie Mack postwhit@sover.net wrote: > Good Doctor, > > Everytime I pass the ball to you, you're in the lane for a chippy. But, > you refuse to take the shot. Here's another chance, don't disappoint. > > Would you provide your TA thoughts on the OEX, NAS COMP, NYSE, INDU and > NDX, please? > > Jeffry > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Earl Setser" Subject: [CANSLIM] Distribution Days Impact Date: 24 Jul 1999 09:55:48 -0700 OK, I think I have a workable approach to watching Distribution Days for selling advice. But this particular time, I doubled my CANSLIM investments last week, and now I'm taking losses on those purchases even though my initial purchases are quite healthy. Looking at this from a "Learn from your mistakes" perspective, I am tempted to use 2 (maybe) distribution days as a "Warning Sign". I would stop any new purchases at this point until it became clear that this wasn't the beginning of a top. Does this sound like something worthwhile? Does anyone else use D-days in this way? Ho-hum, waiting for my last two stocks to kick me out and then waiting for the bottom..... - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Thousands of shares. Date: 24 Jul 1999 13:16:09 -0400 One of the members of my faculty group likes the feel of buying thousands of shares. He is a species of the penny stock buyer. He asked me to look at COPY several months ago and again a few days ago. It sells for a $1.63. It has been up to $3.31 recently. Anyway, I didn't get around to looking at it again until just now. The little bugger doesn't have a bad chart. And yesterday it gave a First Level Buy, which, from past practices, is no big deal. He has bought over 5000 shares and has been trying to get me and others in the group to dive in. If he's lucky, he might get a lift to $1.93 or so. It's fun for him. I bought 3000 shares and another member bought 2000. Among the three of us, we're pretty big traders now. For us, every 1/16 is $600. And that's real spening money. Is there a lesson here that I've missed in the past? Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] The Green One Date: 24 Jul 1999 13:55:28 -0400 Johan wrote (and another beauty it is): > It is not fear and emotion. Both fear and greed are emotions. > It is these two emotions that are reflected in what we call a price chart. > > If all investors acted in sane ways, there would not be a market. So if one > likes to make money, one should be thankful, no matter how harse this > might sound. that market participants often react emotionally. As succesful > CANSLIMer doesn't react emotionally himself, but rather rides the waves > produced by the emotions of the markets. Take a look at this chart, which illustrates your point, IMO: http://decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/ChartSpot05.html Market participants don't change, neither do these markets. They are run by greed and fear because that's what runs the vast majority of it's participants. Indeed, it's what motivates most people in most of their endeavors. Trying to figure out, intellectually/subjectively, what the market will do requires an assumption that one is more intellegent than most others and that one can figure out the market, where few have before them. Beware the intellegent investor....if you meet the Buddha on the road, kill him. "The more intelligent people are, the more they tend to think they know what they are doing--and the more they will have to learn the hard way how little they really know about outsmarting the stock market. The few people I have known over the years who have been unquestionably successful making money in stocks were decisive, decision-making individuals without huge egos. "The market has a simple way of whittling all excessive pride and overblown egos down to size. After all, the whole idea is to be completely objective and recognize what the marketplace is telling you, rather than trying to prove that the thing you said or did yesterday or six weeks ago was right. The fastest way to take a bath in the stock market or go broke is to try to prove that you are right and the market is wrong." HTTMIS, p. 65. It's hot outside, Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution Days Impact Date: 24 Jul 1999 13:36:28 -0500 Van Tharp seems to indicate a volatility stop based on the true average range 20 day moving average as a volatility . He uses a 2.5 to 3 x average true range for a panic trailing stop. He also uses a backup stop based on a 2x average true range against you as an early warning a against you to exit that position. I am trying this out but think it makes good sense and cents. ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, July 24, 1999 11:55 AM > OK, I think I have a workable approach to watching Distribution Days for > selling advice. But this particular time, I doubled my CANSLIM investments > last week, and now I'm taking losses on those purchases even though my > initial purchases are quite healthy. > > Looking at this from a "Learn from your mistakes" perspective, I am tempted > to use 2 (maybe) distribution days as a "Warning Sign". I would stop any > new purchases at this point until it became clear that this wasn't the > beginning of a top. Does this sound like something worthwhile? Does > anyone else use D-days in this way? > > Ho-hum, waiting for my last two stocks to kick me out and then waiting for > the bottom..... > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: SimbaLnKng@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Green One - JAKK Date: 24 Jul 1999 14:41:37 EDT Johan, Can you explain what distribution days are and how you use them? THANKS! Rob - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Green One - JAKK Date: 24 Jul 1999 21:15:02 +0200 Our 'resident native' Jeffry is the lists authority on distribution days so I'll leave it to him to answer that question. In the meanwhile here is WON on distribution: "In general, distribution is indicated by the index closing down or stalling on greater volume than the day before." "Four days of distribution, if correctly spotted over a two- or three-week period, almost always is enough to turn a previously advancing market into a decline. At this point, I will start looking for stocks that are giving indications they should be sold or trimmed back. (I will go through sell rules for individual stocks as part of this series.) " "Markets do not go down by accident. The information and signals are always there. Sadly, ignorance, strong egos and pride usually prevent people from objectively analyzing the market averages and making correct decisions." And a few excerpts from a few posts by Jeffry: In my reading of HTMMIS, there are two types of distribution days. First a higher open, with a lower close on higher daily volume. I don't think we went higher on Tuesday, but the volume was there. This type of day is pretty typical, and not all that alarming after we've had a follow through day off a low, like we did on 3/10. The second, a higher volume day with no appreciable price improvement. These generally occur after a sustained move or floating along a consolidation formation near the highs. This is the type that should get your attention. We saw this type of distribution on October 6, and we saw it again on Feb. 27. --- So, first let's try to identify the WON distribution days, as I see them in the Nasdaq chart. They come in two varieties: "reversal" and "compression" types. Reversals involve a higher open (usually, but can simply be a higher high during the day) followed by a close virtually unchanged to lower on higher daily volume. Compression can exhibit a seemingly narrower or larger spread during the day's trade, but without substantial price improvement, given the increased volume. Compression type distribution is the easiest to miss, and I think the most cautionary signal of all (the October crash was preceeded by a compression day on 10/6 that led to the initial downturn followed by a classic failed rally attempt). --- It is quite common, actually expected, that you will see several distribution days on the way up in a new uptrend. HTMMIS, page 50 and 51, says this, but in a confusing way, I believe. WON seems to focus on the distribution days near the "top", but never describes how you learn to tell whether the index is near the top, or not. WON does not satisfactorily explain that distribution days may occur during the run from the bottom, which is a confusing point. But, it clearly happens, over and over again. This may be where Chapter 7 is a bit outdated, or it may be that it was not written with an eye toward a rotating bull market like we are seeing, with repeated 2-3 month upturns and consolidation/corrections. So, how to recognize when we are seeing distribution near the top? That's where the sentiment and leardership behavior become the corroborating indicators for me. Also a bit of basic chart reading. At 02:41 PM 7/24/99 EDT, you wrote: >Johan, > > Can you explain what distribution days are and how you use them? > >THANKS! > >Rob Johan === - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Thousands of shares. Date: 24 Jul 1999 15:14:40 -0400 Connie, I have no interest in starting a flame war, but feel I must respond to your post on this thread with some directness. Your post is completely inappropriate IHMO. It has nothing to do with Canslim - discusses a stock selling at less than $2 a share (far less than the $12 minimum we like to talk about), has no revenues, has no earnings, has an awful chart (below both the 50 and 200 dma). Therefore, I must request that you more carefully consider future posts. You are a guest on this list and as such you might consider starting to limit your posts to stocks that are more appropriate to the topic of CANSLIM. By example, when I am invited to dinner by a host with allergies to dogs, I do not carry my new puppy with me. You are, with this post, coming dangerously close to promoting a thin stock to our membership which may (however un-intentionally) bump it an 1/8th or so to your benefit. I therefore respectfully request that you limit future posts to those regarding stocks selling at $5 a share at minimum, and better yet $10. I further request that you make some effort to elucidate your reasons for interest in a stock beyond a nebulous "yesterday it gave a First Level Buy, which, from past practices, is no big deal.". In fact, I am not quite sure what your purpose was in making this post. It brings nothing of use to the table in any form that I can see. And I would appreciate better use of the bandwidth than that. My opinion only. Thank you for your kind attention to this matter. Regards, Craig At 01:16 PM 7/24/99 -0400, you wrote: >One of the members of my faculty group likes the feel of buying >thousands of shares. He is a species of the penny stock buyer. > >He asked me to look at COPY several months ago and again a few days >ago. It sells for a $1.63. It has been up to $3.31 recently. > >Anyway, I didn't get around to looking at it again until just now. The >little bugger doesn't have a bad chart. And yesterday it gave a First >Level Buy, which, from past practices, is no big deal. > >He has bought over 5000 shares and has been trying to get me and others >in the group to dive in. If he's lucky, he might get a lift to $1.93 or >so. It's fun for him. I bought 3000 shares and another member bought >2000. Among the three of us, we're pretty big traders now. > >For us, every 1/16 is $600. And that's real spening money. > >Is there a lesson here that I've missed in the past? > >Connie Mack > > > >- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Thousands of shares. Date: 24 Jul 1999 18:03:14 -0400 Craig-- It's hard to confect an angry response to someone who loves puppies and may in the past, under certain non-allergic circumstances, have taken his out to dinner. Dr. CMR - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Earl Setser" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Green One - JAKK Date: 24 Jul 1999 17:31:16 -0700 I'm not Johan, but to quote from WON's online course: "In general, distribution is indicated by the index closing down or stalling on greater volume than the day before. ... After four or five days of distribution, the general market will almost always turn down." For more data, you can check the book or the online course Lesson 13 "How To Spot When Market Hits A Top". He walks through distribution with a couple of DOW charts. At 02:41 PM 7/24/99 EDT, you wrote: >Johan, > > Can you explain what distribution days are and how you use them? > >THANKS! > >Rob > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Thousands of shares. Date: 25 Jul 1999 10:35:10 -0400 Connie, Well said. That was a very classy response. Best Regards, Craig At 06:03 PM 7/24/99 -0400, you wrote: >Craig-- > >It's hard to confect an angry response to someone who loves puppies and may in >the past, under certain non-allergic circumstances, have taken his out to >dinner. > >Dr. CMR > > > > > >- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Lynch" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Distribution Days Impact Date: 26 Jul 1999 08:40:00 +1200 John, I read and enjoyed Van Tharps book too. His commentary on CANSLIM is useful and I found that his expansion on WONs discussion about stops and position sizes to be very helpful. None of it helps alot when you buy stocks as the market turns against you. I, like Earl, have a few of them and wish that I had noted the distribution days leading up to a couple of currently painful purchases. I tested a number of Average True Range (ATR) ratios against other stop recommendations ranging from 7% to 15% and found ATR to be better because it was tight against non-volatile stocks but gave volatile stocks a bit of room to move. I like 3.5 ATR for automatic stops and 3.2 for manual stops after close. One thing that does help at this point (and I risk Jeffry suggesting that I might have Fibbonacci numbers involved :-)) is to look at areas of possible resistance to price change. Van Tharp suggested that you should consider them in setting your stops and set your 3ATR stops a little under the nearest area where there has been heavy buying and selling activity in the recent past. This means that if the 7% or 3ATR or other rule said Cisco stops should be at 61 I would set automatic stops at perhaps 57 or 58 but not above 60. If the calculated stop was below 57 I'd probably set it at 57. Similarly I might set stops for IBM at 77 or 78. Regards, John -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of John Adair Sent: Sunday, 25 July 1999 06:36 Van Tharp seems to indicate a volatility stop based on the true average range 20 day moving average as a volatility . He uses a 2.5 to 3 x average true range for a panic trailing stop. He also uses a backup stop based on a 2x average true range against you as an early warning a against you to exit that position. I am trying this out but think it makes good sense and cents. ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, July 24, 1999 11:55 AM > OK, I think I have a workable approach to watching Distribution Days for > selling advice. But this particular time, I doubled my CANSLIM investments > last week, and now I'm taking losses on those purchases even though my > initial purchases are quite healthy. > > Looking at this from a "Learn from your mistakes" perspective, I am tempted > to use 2 (maybe) distribution days as a "Warning Sign". I would stop any > new purchases at this point until it became clear that this wasn't the > beginning of a top. Does this sound like something worthwhile? Does > anyone else use D-days in this way? > > Ho-hum, waiting for my last two stocks to kick me out and then waiting for > the bottom..... > > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] Distribution Days Impact - John Lynch Date: 25 Jul 1999 17:17:49 -0400 > One thing that does help at this point (and I risk Jeffry suggesting that I > might have Fibbonacci numbers involved :-)) is to look at areas of possible > resistance to price change. My comment was harsh, John. Let me explain why. Earl made a clear comment about the impact of a sequence of distribution days, and sought confirmation. I saw nothing MANSLIC in your reponse. I think it's appropriate to qualify your comments, so that someone seeking confirmation doesn't take away from the post some sense that their read or effort is incorrect. Fibonacci retracements, support and resistance levels, BB's, EMA's, SMA's, etc. are all fine tools, many of which I use in non-MANSLIC efforts. However, there are many students of MANSLIC here who are making a fairly pure effort at understanding WON and HTMMIS and the discipline of MANSLIC. I assume you have a similar interest, but injecting the *impure* (if you will) into posts to this board, without qualification, runs some risks for all of us, IMO. Hey, how about just giving us a market read with all those bells and whistles? I'd be interested in hearing the details, the analysis, etc. Just make the post clear that it has nothing to do with MANSLIC, that's my point. FWIW. JW - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] The Green One - Rob Date: 25 Jul 1999 17:21:37 -0400 > Date: Sat, 24 Jul 1999 14:41:37 EDT > From: SimbaLnKng@aol.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Green One - JAKK > > Johan, > > Can you explain what distribution days are and how you use them? > > THANKS! > > Rob Re-read Chapter 7 of HTMMIS, and then get out a chart and look at the dates in the Nas and NYSE and INDU which have been posted 5 or 6 times over the past three or four days on this list. If it's still not clear, then there are many on the list who will go over specific days of distribution that are shown on recent charts. Jeff - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] Thousands of Shares Date: 25 Jul 1999 17:25:39 -0400 > Is there a lesson here that I've missed in the past? > > Connie Mack Yeah, the lesson for MANSLIC'ers is on page 124 of HTMMIS, 2d Edition. JW - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: SimbaLnKng@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Green One - Rob Date: 25 Jul 1999 17:23:17 EDT Thanks to everyone for answering my question. Is nice to find people so willing to help others. Rob - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] Dr. CM - "M" Date: 25 Jul 1999 17:36:50 -0400 > Jeffry, I have an intuition that if I called this comment a jump shot you'd > have preferred a hook. > > Connie Mack > Whatever the shot, it was a thing of beauty. My passing will not improve with my current schedule, however. My aim is true, however, and my intentions are good. I seek only to position you close to the MANSLIC paint, so that your magic dazzles the believers in the crowd. I see the chippies, perhaps better than the good Doctor is able. Seriously, I think your 3,7,10 and slo stos could help read a bounce or beginning of a rally attempt for a MANSLIC'er who has gotten caught in this downdraft. That's where I think we are, or at least ought to be. When a rally attempt begins, MANSLIC'ers need to decide when it is prone to failure, how abrupt it might be, and where the likely turning points may lay, so that some remedial selling that was not done earlier in the month might be done with some relief. I think your indicators are useful in these particular areas, not only in the "M", but the ANSLIC issues themselves. Presently, I like your slow sto movement on the indices for a rally to come, although the 3,7,10 is ugly. Will you comment? So, please, indulge my awkward passing hand. Call it a hook, or a two-hand set shot, as you will. But, show us the entry, exit, turning points, etc. so that we might discuss it with our MANSLIC efforts, both in understanding M and the issues that most here play. Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Lynch" Subject: [CANSLIM] Market - A NonManslic Perspective on M Date: 26 Jul 1999 11:37:33 +1200 Jeffry, I find the market a bit hard to pick today because I want it to do one thing and fear it may do the other. I'm also not a technical expert on picking the DJI or SPX. What would you expect of a Kiwi? Despite this I'll give it a go! It seems to me that Connie will rightly avoid comment on the market, being a day trader who regards "the trend as his friend" and essentially uses tools (MACD and EMA) to confirm the trend. He doesn't normally seem to be picking turning points except with his doubling rule. Until recently I was a long term investor using CANSLIM type principles to pick my purchases. Partly because I believe the adage that "you invest at the beginning of a bull market and speculate at the end" I have moved to a shorter term perspective. I try to use breakouts and reversals on retracements to find opportunities for quick gains over 3 days to 3 weeks. This means that I care about the Market to the extent that I shouldn't go against it. I also like CANSLIM picks because their breakouts meet my criteria and they are strong both on earnings and price growth. I will buy them on breakout or when oversold and moving off the bottom of a retracement. When buying the bottoms of retracements, my approach is to get a sense of the stock's behaviour and then buy straight after it bounces out of oversold (using Williams %R(10) for buying and Mel Widner's Projection oscillator or Connie's 3/7/10 EMAs for selling) trying to pick the bottom or the day after. To try to get a sense of the stock or the market I look at resistance levels, likely retracements (light if the market is going up so typically 22% to 33%; heavy if the market goes negative so 50% to 66%) and the news. So what would I say about the market? Last Wednesday, despite distribution I believed that the markets should bounce on Thursday. This was because (a) most of the major indices had been oversold the day before and were signalling a rise and (b) most of them were sitting above significant resistance levels. Then, on Thursday, Mr Greenspan made a few comments and the mornings trade turned negative. Many stocks promptly took out the resistance level and dropped to the next one down - taking the markets with them. 1) My current prognosis (70% chance vs down from here) is: - We're still oversold so should bounce back. Mr Greenspans comments cooled everyone off but sometime between Monday and Wednesday we will move out of down/sideways mode and we will begin the next upwards leg similar to March-June this year on the DJI. - When we hit the recent highs we will either go through them with good volume or bounce back for a couple of days before continuing up. Intuitively I feel that we will bounce down because so many are nervous but "psychological" technical theory suggests that the most nervous may have been shaken out on Thursday and Friday, which will lead to a quicker rise. The number of stops taken out late last week would also help create a clean rise as these people start to buy back in to their stocks. - When we go through last weeks highs the technical reading seems to be a fairly clean rise to about 12,200. The basis for this view is that the consolidation in June-July at 10,700 could be considered to be as the mid point for an interrupted rise from 9,200 in January. Another view is that 15%-20% is around the average rise for any intermediate leg of a bull market and this would put the average at 12,300-12,800. Once we get to the top, some people are suggesting that we have topped the bull market and Y2K nervousness will trigger the next bear market so I'll be increasingly in cash around this time. 2) My 30% prognosis is that we go down from here. This seems less likely because the normal indicators people use to pick market failure like the NYSE breadth indicators and VIX don't seem to be in "crash mode". Sorry that I cant provide any certainty :-) I've got stops under the next resistance level for everything I currently own and when I wake up tomorrow morning (7am in New Zealand is 3pm Wall St Time) I'll be very interested to see how I performed. Regards, John -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of postwhit@sover.net Sent: Monday, 26 July 1999 09:18 Hey, how about just giving us a market read with all those bells and whistles? I'd be interested in hearing the details, the analysis, etc. Just make the post clear that it has nothing to do with MANSLIC, that's my point. FWIW. JW - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: SKutney@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Questions Date: 25 Jul 1999 21:17:25 EDT HI, In Dhun Sethna's book, Investing Smart which is on CANSLIM investing he talks about the percentage of NYse Stocks above there 200 day moving average. The current value is 57%. He says that above 50% is bullish. It has been around 50% for some time. Does the group find this measure usefull? Is it also usefull for over the counter stocks? Some of you have talked about getting stopped out. In CANSLIM investing once your above your 7% stop-loss point don't your normally use the selling rules as a decision to sell. The distribution days should tell you to lighten up on your least strongest stocks but shouldn't you maintain your position in your strongest stocks. The Stocks that I've seen listed still have high relative strength. Why would you sell? We are in a bull market. If we do take a dip, Is the right buy point still at a new high? Last year I saw more than a few stocks just rocket forward. They did exceed their former highs but why wait if you see strong market action. Steve - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dr. CM - "M" Date: 25 Jul 1999 22:12:33 -0400 I've looked back three months, sometimes six, and graded my 3/7/10 EMA on entries and exits for the INDU and NASDAQ. I have brought to bear also the MACD and my Doubling Principle of the 3/7/10 EMA. I grade it B-plus. What better results can you expect? Use the three indicators on a 52-week chart. The EMA would have taken you out in August, put you back in October, and kept you in until the most recent decline. Any ambiguity would have been settled by the MACD. What more can you ask of any indicator? From what little I know about CS--and that little I have learned here--is that it lacks preciseness for entering and exiting. Yet it is loath to incorporate technical indicators. I would bet my next good trading day that O'Neill is no more pure with his CANSLIM than is a $100 hooker with her client. I'll bet that he uses technical indicators, that he has inside information (of the legal and less legal kind), absolutely has access to "friends," knows about insider selling/buying before it's published and probably the reasons for the selling/buying, and a dozen other accesses you and I don't have. One reason that invites me to even trade is that, with all the information, less than half of the fund managers beat the primary indexes. Big boys err in big ways. Then I look at my unsophisticated EMA, my Doubling Principle, and the MACD and blithely and unobtrusively not only go where the Bean Stalk giants have been but manage to return with a few dollars. CS investors of the last near ten years haven't known a real extended down draft and have, therefore, never suffered the modest terror of disappearing capital. If one hasn't made money in the best of times, one will not make it in the worst. When the beginning of the worst of times does begin, my old faithful 3/7/10, tacked onto the indexes, will tell me. It will tell me to lighten up on my daily trading, as it has done this past week. If the indexes don't heal up, I lighten up still more, and take a look for a few shorts. The 3/7/10 will tell me there is chance to make some money even in a down market. E.g., tomorrow I will try to trade DELL. It sits just above a trend line across the lows and also on resistance at 40.87. It is just outside the apex on a triangle, which can only be read alone as ambiguous. The MACD has made a down cross, but the cross has been made above the trigger; therefore, I read it as a correction in the context of strength. The SloSto just turned buy from an oversold area. The 3/7/10 EMA is still in a Third Level Sell, but there is an implication from Friday's intraday chart that the last 30 minutes of action should carry over to Monday. So, I wait through 30 minutes or so Monday before I take any sizeable position. However, I will be looking to get a jump on any run up by buying a couple hundred shares if I can get them at Friday's close. I've some support between 39.25 and 39.5 and will let these shares go at 39 if the market turns against me. One reason I'm willing to jump the gun on the EMA is that I expect the market to have a bounce tomorrow. If it doesn't, I'm invested for only a couple hundred shares and will suffer only a minimal loss. DELL is notorious for rising early in the morning, correcting a point or so, and then rising. I intend to buy two further small lots at 41.25 and 41.5 if the volume looks good. The next resistance is around 44. If DELL should fly and hit 44, I will let all my positions go with the intention of getting back in on, say, a 50% retracement. This is ideal strategy, and never the manifested strategy. There are all kinds of resistance between 44-46, but, once through this, 55 is easily in view. I am holding modest positions in WIT, FSR, FHS, and WCS. Overall, I am down about three percent in these positions and have no qualms about dumping them all at five percent. I will also be watching MU, which, in some respects, is acting better than DELL. It, too, implies some carryover strength from Friday. There was intraday resistance at 51.12 on Friday. There is overhead at 53 and could give a nice two point trade. Or it could be a reasonable entry for longer term. It appears to have broken its down trend. It, like DELL, has been making higher highs and higher lows. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Chat sites. [Connie Mack] Date: 26 Jul 1999 09:11:47 -0400 Some pretty good chat sites are available on http://www.trading-ideas.com/coi/jul99/chart072699.html. Click down a couple of times on the right hand panel. Those "Misc." entries are good sources. Click the "Back" button and note the several dozen options on both the right and left panels. Looks like we're going to get a slap to the side of the head on the open. A lower close today would make me "cashy." Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Questions Date: 26 Jul 1999 09:13:34 -0700 Steve, > In Dhun Sethna's book, Investing Smart which is on CANSLIM investing he >talks about the percentage of NYse Stocks above there 200 day moving average. >The current value is 57%. He says that above 50% is bullish. It has been >around 50% for some time. Does the group find this measure usefull? Is it >also usefull for over the counter stocks? I take note of it and if its going higher or lower. I've never used this for NASDAQ but I beleive you'd find the A/D line for it is usually negative. > Some of you have talked about getting stopped out. In CANSLIM investing >once your above your 7% stop-loss point don't your normally use the selling >rules as a decision to sell. The distribution days should tell you to lighten >up on >your least strongest stocks but shouldn't you maintain your position in your >strongest stocks. The Stocks that I've seen listed still have high relative >strength. >Why would you sell? We are in a bull market. I'm still working on this one, if I had a BIOGEN or Charles Schwab I'd probably hold it otherwise I'd sell. > >If we do take a dip, Is the right buy point still at a new high? Last year I >saw more than a few stocks just rocket forward. They did exceed their former >highs >but why wait if you see strong market action. I've had a lot of luck(and spend a lot of time studying) buying stocks that performed strongly in the last rally and are still above their previous base by a lot, example, Best Buy at 17 split adustjed in Oct 1998 is at least a 4x. I look for strong fundies and technicals when doing this. > >Steve > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dr. Connie and Dr. Alex and Mr. "M" Date: 26 Jul 1999 20:52:19 -0400 Good Evening, Connie, Couple comments... (Canslim purists please avert your eyes, I'll be sacriligious and a WON apostate.) Connie Mack Rea wrote: > I've looked back three months, sometimes six, and graded my 3/7/10 EMA on entries > and exits for the INDU and NASDAQ. I have brought to bear also the MACD and my > Doubling Principle of the 3/7/10 EMA. > > I grade it B-plus. What better results can you expect? > > Use the three indicators on a 52-week chart. The EMA would have taken you out in > August, put you back in October, and kept you in until the most recent decline. > Any ambiguity would have been settled by the MACD. What more can you ask of any > indicator? I checked your 3-7-10 indicators and they acquitted themselves well indeed, as I think they would in trending markets. A little trickier in non-trending. With regard to the present "M", right here I deem the present market a suckfest. CANSLIM: too many distribution days, bad sentiment numbers, too few leaders unbroken. Dr. Alex (Elder) TRIPLE SCREEN: market sell signal as of last Friday the 23rd on all three of the DJIA, the SPX, and the NASD. I'm out, and my trading accounts are 100% cash for two weeks now. For me, a key "tell" was the action in my TD Waterhouse (TWE:NYSE) trade. This should have been a canslim leadership stock of the future (once it had built up enough of a track record). Considering that it is one of the three biggest discount brokers, that it is growing the fastest outside of the US, that it has a strong internet presence, and that it was backed by the best and brightest Wall Street firms, the action in this stock was very interesting (and not least because I had also tied up 1/3 of my trading capital buying shares pre-IPO). In the meantime, as one of this years most anticipated IPO's, it was offered at $24 and went briefly to $27 on the first day. Today it closed at $18 1/4. Broken stock and broken IPO. ( I flipped my shares on day two during the general rush for the exits - and made all of $105 on the trade.) > I would bet my next good trading day that O'Neill is no more pure with his > CANSLIM than is a $100 hooker with her client. I'll bet that he uses technical > indicators, that he has inside information (of the legal and less legal kind), > absolutely has access to "friends," knows about insider selling/buying before > it's published and probably the reasons for the selling/buying, and a dozen other > accesses you and I don't have. Now now Connie, are you comparing WON to a $100 hooker's client? Be nice. His would be $500 at least. As for your comment about "friends", are you insinuating that when WONDA's away the WON will play ? > When the beginning of the worst of times does begin, my old faithful 3/7/10, > tacked onto the indexes, will tell me. It will tell me to lighten up on my daily > trading, as it has done this past week. If the indexes don't heal up, I lighten > up still more, and take a look for a few shorts. In the best of times, and in the worst of times, I am convinced that your 3/7/10 will in fact keep you in the money and out of trouble. (The trading tumbrils will not roll for you.) It is in the trendless or trading-range times that this particular indicator might present a problem for an intermediate term trader. Whipsaw potential. As a day-trader though, you are at least partially exempt. > The 3/7/10 will tell me there is chance to make some money even in a down > market. E.g., tomorrow I will try to trade DELL. It sits just above a trend > line across the lows and also on resistance at 40.87. > > It is just outside the apex on a triangle, which can only be read alone as > ambiguous. The MACD has made a down cross, but the cross has been made above the > trigger; therefore, I read it as a correction in the context of strength. > > The SloSto just turned buy from an oversold area. > > The 3/7/10 EMA is still in a Third Level Sell, but there is an implication from > Friday's intraday chart that the last 30 minutes of action should carry over to > Monday. > > So, I wait through 30 minutes or so Monday before I take any sizeable position. > However, I will be looking to get a jump on any run up by buying a couple hundred > shares if I can get them at Friday's close. I've some support between 39.25 and > 39.5 and will let these shares go at 39 if the market turns against me. > > One reason I'm willing to jump the gun on the EMA is that I expect the market to > have a bounce tomorrow. If it doesn't, I'm invested for only a couple hundred > shares and will suffer only a minimal loss. > > DELL is notorious for rising early in the morning, correcting a point or so, and > then rising. I intend to buy two further small lots at 41.25 and 41.5 if the > volume looks good. > > The next resistance is around 44. If DELL should fly and hit 44, I will let all > my positions go with the intention of getting back in on, say, a 50% retracement. > > This is ideal strategy, and never the manifested strategy. > > There are all kinds of resistance between 44-46, but, once through this, 55 is > easily in view. > > I am holding modest positions in WIT, FSR, FHS, and WCS. Overall, I am down > about three percent in these positions and have no qualms about dumping them all > at five percent. > > I will also be watching MU, which, in some respects, is acting better than DELL. > It, too, implies some carryover strength from Friday. There was intraday > resistance at 51.12 on Friday. There is overhead at 53 and could give a nice two > point trade. > > Or it could be a reasonable entry for longer term. It appears to have broken its > down trend. It, like DELL, has been making higher highs and higher lows. > > Connie Mack Keep up the great posts, Walter Oakville, Ontario, Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mikelu" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Questions Date: 26 Jul 1999 18:06:40 -0700 WON says when you see the distribution days to lighten up to the tune of 25%, and 25% more for each new bad day. My problem is I can't tell which stocks are the weak ones until they start failing, and stops take me out of those anyway. Mike -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of SKutney@aol.com Sent: Sunday, July 25, 1999 6:17 PM ... Some of you have talked about getting stopped out. In CANSLIM investing once your above your 7% stop-loss point don't your normally use the selling rules as a decision to sell. The distribution days should tell you to lighten up on your least strongest stocks but shouldn't you maintain your position in your strongest stocks. The Stocks that I've seen listed still have high relative strength. Why would you sell? We are in a bull market. ... Steve - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dr. Connie and Dr. Alex and Mr. "M" Date: 26 Jul 1999 21:24:06 -0400 Thanks for the mail, Walter. Tomorrow I may want to borrow a few bucks if I don't get some bounce. Please don't leave town. Connie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Cramps. [Connie Mack] Date: 26 Jul 1999 21:40:31 -0400 "I can't think of a worse place to have cramps" said one feminist. I can. And it's the stock market. I made four buys today and three sells. And therein lies the cramp. I am sitting with a pretty sizeable piece of DELL at 40.25. The result of my day: About a $100 give or take a 64th, which is how thin you can slice DELL. My proposed bounce was characterized by an equally familiar and unpopular sound: Of sucking. "Irregardless," as some of my students couldn't be dissuaded from saying, I'm sticking with DELL--and a little bit of MU. Either DELL has been lying to me [it has held up really well through the demise of the NASDAQ] and has not bottomed, or I'll kiss the mocking bird's butt. I don't advise anyone trying to follow. Just watch. Tomorrow will be a day full of IFR navigation. You don't want to fly where the Saratoga went. I intend to bet about half of my trading capital on DELL. If I'm right, the mocking bird can kiss my butt. There is about to occur, for me, an unusual conjunction of events. The NASDAQ has been beaten like a miner's mule. Unless the mule dies, which it never does, there is much pressure for a recovery, however short. But a short recovery is all a trader needs. One or two good days, and the rent is paid for the rest of the year. Otherwise, I may have to borrow from the relatives. All my indicators are oversold. I would like for the 3/7/10 to look better. However, the MACD is about to give a buy below the trigger line. It's at this level of turn that gives the biggest returns. Don't disregard DELL as an opportunity at a pretty safe risk/reward point. Too, there is news that DELL is about to overtake CPQ in PC sales. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] acc/dis numbers Date: 26 Jul 1999 22:09:48 EDT Here are the latest Acc/Dis Numbers Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 7/1/1999 1433 2854 1248 848 298 64% 4% 7/2/1999 1558 2861 1192 820 263 66% 4% 7/6/1999 1528 2907 1202 804 252 66% 4% 7/7/1999 1560 2946 1176 780 256 67% 4% 7/8/1999 1589 2946 1125 797 257 68% 4% 7/9/1999 1542 2955 1188 788 263 67% 4% 7/12/1999 1539 2894 1229 788 268 66% 4% 7/13/1999 1598 2906 1183 788 257 67% 4% 7/14/1999 1605 2928 1152 796 266 67% 4% 7/15/1999 1556 2968 1176 784 282 67% 4% 7/16/1999 1601 2938 1195 762 275 67% 4% 7/19/1999 1665 2950 1179 699 274 68% 4% 7/20/1999 1683 2942 1165 719 276 68% 4% 7/21/1999 1688 2921 1169 738 275 68% 4% 7/22/1999 1523 2915 1253 788 289 66% 4% 7/23/1999 1491 2964 1206 805 291 66% 4% 7/26/1999 1427 2947 1236 844 303 65% 4% Spreedsheet version Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 7/1/1999,1433,2854,1248,848,298,64%,4% 7/2/1999,1558,2861,1192,820,263,66%,4% 7/6/1999,1528,2907,1202,804,252,66%,4% 7/7/1999,1560,2946,1176,780,256,67%,4% 7/8/1999,1589,2946,1125,797,257,68%,4% 7/9/1999,1542,2955,1188,788,263,67%,4% 7/12/1999,1539,2894,1229,788,268,66%,4% 7/13/1999,1598,2906,1183,788,257,67%,4% 7/14/1999,1605,2928,1152,796,266,67%,4% 7/15/1999,1556,2968,1176,784,282,67%,4% 7/16/1999,1601,2938,1195,762,275,67%,4% 7/19/1999,1665,2950,1179,699,274,68%,4% 7/20/1999,1683,2942,1165,719,276,68%,4% 7/21/1999,1688,2921,1169,738,275,68%,4% 7/22/1999,1523,2915,1253,788,289,66%,4% 7/23/1999,1491,2964,1206,805,291,66%,4% 7/26/1999,1427,2947,1236,844,303,65%,4% Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: FBNAirPlt@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] acc/dis numbers Date: 26 Jul 1999 22:08:14 EDT Here are the latest Acc/Dis Numbers Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 7/1/1999 1433 2854 1248 848 298 64% 4% 7/2/1999 1558 2861 1192 820 263 66% 4% 7/6/1999 1528 2907 1202 804 252 66% 4% 7/7/1999 1560 2946 1176 780 256 67% 4% 7/8/1999 1589 2946 1125 797 257 68% 4% 7/9/1999 1542 2955 1188 788 263 67% 4% 7/12/1999 1539 2894 1229 788 268 66% 4% 7/13/1999 1598 2906 1183 788 257 67% 4% 7/14/1999 1605 2928 1152 796 266 67% 4% 7/15/1999 1556 2968 1176 784 282 67% 4% 7/16/1999 1601 2938 1195 762 275 67% 4% 7/19/1999 1665 2950 1179 699 274 68% 4% 7/20/1999 1683 2942 1165 719 276 68% 4% 7/21/1999 1688 2921 1169 738 275 68% 4% 7/22/1999 1523 2915 1253 788 289 66% 4% 7/23/1999 1491 2964 1206 805 291 66% 4% 7/26/1999 1427 2947 1236 844 303 65% 4% Spreedsheet version Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 7/1/1999,1433,2854,1248,848,298,64%,4% 7/2/1999,1558,2861,1192,820,263,66%,4% 7/6/1999,1528,2907,1202,804,252,66%,4% 7/7/1999,1560,2946,1176,780,256,67%,4% 7/8/1999,1589,2946,1125,797,257,68%,4% 7/9/1999,1542,2955,1188,788,263,67%,4% 7/12/1999,1539,2894,1229,788,268,66%,4% 7/13/1999,1598,2906,1183,788,257,67%,4% 7/14/1999,1605,2928,1152,796,266,67%,4% 7/15/1999,1556,2968,1176,784,282,67%,4% 7/16/1999,1601,2938,1195,762,275,67%,4% 7/19/1999,1665,2950,1179,699,274,68%,4% 7/20/1999,1683,2942,1165,719,276,68%,4% 7/21/1999,1688,2921,1169,738,275,68%,4% 7/22/1999,1523,2915,1253,788,289,66%,4% 7/23/1999,1491,2964,1206,805,291,66%,4% 7/26/1999,1427,2947,1236,844,303,65%,4% Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "avasg asdha" Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM fan Date: 27 Jul 1999 06:14:30 GMT Hey guys, my first time posting to this site. I too, am a ONLY CANSLIM guy. In fact, I closed all my longs after the 3rd distribution day, and last Tuesday , bought put options. Any comments ? Mohan Singh _______________________________________________________________ Get Free Email and Do More On The Web. Visit http://www.msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] DELL Dabblers. [Connie Mack] Date: 27 Jul 1999 14:03:16 -0400 A couple of members are dabbling in DELL this morning with between a 100-200 shares. They're trying to get the feel for the 3/7/10 EMA, the Doubling Principle, and the MACD as trading indicators and eventually as just indicators for entrance on longer investments. Both are up nicely and wondering if they should not get out with their profits. I have told them that I was pretty heavy into DELL after further purchases this morning. I've let all my positions go at 42 about an hour ago. Since then I've no chance to get back in at 1/4 to 1/2 lower. Just now there appears to be several sales at 13/16. I'll consider re-entering at 40.75; would prefer entry at 1/2, however. If I re-enter, I'd like to see a run at 43 or so and again get out. Heavy resistance thereabouts. Neither member has real time streaming quotes, which they need if day trading. I have sent them to http://www.isld.com/itchclient/javaversion.htm. This a free real time streaming quote. I've set them up so they can follow on intraday BigCharts [delayed 15] and watch the quotes simultaneously. They will print out BC and update by hand the DELL chart. I've put MACD, Volume+ [Plus], and SloSto in the bottom panels. They're also watching the NASDAQ on a second BC chart. Now they're set to learn to read the chart along with the Island real time quotes. Because they are each up over a point, I said that they should not take any loss that would get into a one point gain. Get out and go home. Never, never take a loss after you've a one point gain. That would be anathema for a trader. There are also some "nevers" with even less of a gain. I have paid the rent for the rest of the year and hope to make a bit more to buy the wife a present and some special treat for the cats. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Island RT streaming quotes Date: 27 Jul 1999 20:17:10 +0200 >http://www.isld.com/itchclient/javaversion.htm. This a free real time >streaming quote. Some of you might want to know that the web address above is for the lagacy version. The new technology version is located at: http://www.isld.com/BookViewer/javaversion.htm Johan === - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dr. Connie and Mr. Dollar Date: 27 Jul 1999 22:56:32 -0400 Hi Connie, A few bucks, eh? I hope your request doesn't come for mighty US greenbacks. My funds are limited to the threadbare Northern Peso (aka Canadian Dollar, Beaverbuck, Monopoly Money etc.). Worth 66 cents US today. I think you could buy Quebec with your MU profits. I will stay in town. Can't afford to leave. Your impecunious neighbour to the north, Walter Connie Mack Rea wrote: > Thanks for the mail, Walter. > > Tomorrow I may want to borrow a few bucks if I don't get some bounce. Please don't > leave town. > > Connie > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM fan Date: 28 Jul 1999 04:29:23 GMT On Tue, 27 Jul 1999 06:14:30 GMT, you wrote: :Hey guys, my first time posting to this site. I too, am a ONLY CANSLIM = guy.=20 :In fact, I closed all my longs after the 3rd distribution day, and last=20 :Tuesday , bought put options. Any comments ? Mohan Singh Yes, you are my guru. I wish I'd been on it like that. I had my tail spanked. Only got out yesterday after losing all my gains from mid-June and MORE. I believed too many stories and didn't pay sufficient attention to the true signs. Dan : : :_______________________________________________________________ :Get Free Email and Do More On The Web. Visit http://www.msn.com : : : :- : - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: [CANSLIM] MACD Date: 28 Jul 1999 07:53:31 -0700 Good morning Connie, Looks as though you probably profited with DELL. With interday charts I often see the MACD the trigger line hugging the signal line, either above or below zero, however the slope of the two are gently inclining or declining and the price trendless and flat. Do you give any weight to the *slope* of the MACD? Always appreciating your posts and POV. Thanks Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "avasg asdha" Subject: [CANSLIM] INVERSE CANSLIM !! Date: 28 Jul 1999 04:13:56 GMT Right now is a great shorting opportunity, it started last Tuesday . Now MANSLIC tells you the market is heading down(In fact, 27thJuly) is an Accumulation day(opposite of distribution day, ie index up on higher vol). Now short weakest stocks(which are the internets). Notice the head and shoulders on AMZN and YHOO on weekly charts. Both will go to 60. All factors that Jeffry mentioned point to a very weak market, a market already topped out ten days ago(notice that even though nasdaq went up today, these stocks along with EBAY ,PCLN were down). WON doesnt say much about shorting but by using puts, you can make some money. You can send your comments to me directly at asdfg123_4@hotmail.com, Mohan Singh _______________________________________________________________ Get Free Email and Do More On The Web. Visit http://www.msn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Intraday DELL {Connie Mack] Date: 28 Jul 1999 12:40:01 -0400 Just a short while ago the buyers took out everything between 42.12 and 42.62. And all in just a few minutes. Right now the Doubling Principle is in effect. Were I to guess the result, I would guess for a minor correction. Note that price is approaching an early morning high between 42.62 and 42.75. I infer that the resistance here would turn price back to prepare for another assault. If price goes through 42.75, the principle is still in effect. When the next overhead is approached, there will be another reason to infer a lowering of price. In the meantime, I let the 3/7/10 and the MACD dictate my decisions on exiting. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dick Wilkinson Subject: [CANSLIM] PHCC Date: 28 Jul 1999 10:31:28 -0700 (PDT) I'm new to this board...it's good to find. In the past three weeks I was stopped out of all my CANSLIM positions. Today I bot PHCC. Pivot 42 1/4. 99 95 EAB. I know I'm reaching, in this market and PHCC's E rating. Dick Wilkinson _____________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Free instant messaging and more at http://messenger.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] INVERSE CANSLIM !! Date: 26 Jul 1999 10:53:23 -0700 Jeff, can you please dump this person? I already get enough SPAM! On 09:13 PM 7/27/99 , avasg asdha Said: >Right now is a great shorting opportunity, it started last Tuesday . Now >MANSLIC tells you the market is heading down(In fact, 27thJuly) is an >Accumulation day(opposite of distribution day, ie index up on higher vol). >Now short weakest stocks(which are the internets). Notice the head and >shoulders on AMZN and YHOO on weekly charts. Both will go to 60. All factors >that Jeffry mentioned point to a very weak market, a market already topped >out ten days ago(notice that even though nasdaq went up today, these stocks >along with EBAY ,PCLN were down). WON doesnt say much about shorting but by >using puts, you can make some money. You can send your comments to me >directly at asdfg123_4@hotmail.com, Mohan Singh > > >_______________________________________________________________ >Get Free Email and Do More On The Web. Visit http://www.msn.com > > > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MACD Date: 28 Jul 1999 14:51:29 -0400 Good afternoon Dan-- I suppose there is some reading to be made of the slope of the MACD. It is, after all, composed of MAs. What I take most from the situation you described is that there is an equilibrium of forces on price seen not only on the MACD but probably on the 3/7/10 EMA also. However, the MACD can give positive and negative divergences, and it is from these divergences that the prospect of change is inferred. Take DELL, for example. The MACD in May was of little value though you could make money by using the 3/7/10. But, then, about 5-21 the MACD turned clearly sell and remained so for three weeks, was ambiguous for a week, and then turned to buy below the trigger line. I am not sure how to read, or if there is a read, on the inclination or declination. At least, there is none that I see. Too, how you scale the chart can make a measurable difference. Thanks for the mail. Let me know if I've not answered your question. Connie Dan Cash wrote: > Good morning Connie, > > Looks as though you probably profited with DELL. > > With interday charts I often see the MACD the trigger line hugging > the signal line, either above or below zero, however the slope of > the two are gently inclining or declining and the price trendless > and flat. > > Do you give any weight to the *slope* of the MACD? > > Always appreciating your posts and POV. > > Thanks > > Dan > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MACD Date: 28 Jul 1999 12:40:23 -0700 More specifically: GOTO, 5min, 1 day chart. Beginning at 12:20 until 14:30, the price graph is flat while the 12,26,9 MACD slopped down, then there was a subsequent drop in price and partial recovery only to flatten out again. This is the best example that I can come up with quickly. Does the declination of the macd in that period of time hold any importance to you? Thanks, Dan Connie Mack Rea wrote: > Good afternoon Dan-- > > I suppose there is some reading to be made of the slope of the MACD. It > is, after all, composed of MAs. What I take most from the situation you > described is that there is an equilibrium of forces on price seen not > only on the MACD but probably on the 3/7/10 EMA also. > > However, the MACD can give positive and negative divergences, and it is > from these divergences that the prospect of change is inferred. Take > DELL, for example. The MACD in May was of little value though you could > make money by using the 3/7/10. But, then, about 5-21 the MACD turned > clearly sell and remained so for three weeks, was ambiguous for a week, > and then turned to buy below the trigger line. I am not sure how to > read, or if there is a read, on the inclination or declination. At > least, there is none that I see. > > Too, how you scale the chart can make a measurable difference. > > Thanks for the mail. Let me know if I've not answered your question. > > Connie > > Dan Cash wrote: > > > Good morning Connie, > > > > Looks as though you probably profited with DELL. > > > > With interday charts I often see the MACD the trigger line hugging > > the signal line, either above or below zero, however the slope of > > the two are gently inclining or declining and the price trendless > > and flat. > > > > Do you give any weight to the *slope* of the MACD? > > > > Always appreciating your posts and POV. > > > > Thanks > > > > Dan > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MACD Date: 28 Jul 1999 16:24:30 -0400 Dan-- The sell signal on the MACD and its following declination does tell me this. While the MACD has continued to decline from around 12:00 to 2:00, it is showing a negative divergence with price. I.e., price remains flat while the MACD is implying price decline. And that decline does come in price. To this minute the MACD is in decline. When the 3/7/10 EMA turned down, it was soon confirmed by the MACD. To look elsewhere, you'll see on BigCharts that momentum turned modestly down and that Volume+ dropped off. If you've not a place to adjust some of the indicators [MACD, e.g.], go to this site: http://www.easystock.com/tkchart/ctmChart.asp?stkname=LCAV&px=7&wt=0&ct=1&mv=on&mt=1&m1=3&m2=7&m3=10&bbt=0&bbp=10&bbd=2&vol=on&obv=on&v1=10&v2=30&mc=on&s=9&e1=12&e2=26&rsi=on&r1=7&r2=14&r3=21&mf1=7&mf2=14&mf3=21&cci=on&c1=10&c2=0&c3=20&dmi=on&dm=14&kd=on&k=9&rc1=10&rc2=0&rc3=20&w1=10&w2=0&w3=20 Especially check the MACD with different settings. Connie Dan Cash wrote: > More specifically: GOTO, 5min, 1 day chart. Beginning at 12:20 until > 14:30, the price graph is flat while the 12,26,9 MACD slopped down, then > there was a subsequent drop in price and partial recovery only to flatten > out again. This is the best example that I can come up with quickly. Does > the declination of the macd in that period of time hold any importance to > you? > > Thanks, > Dan > > Connie Mack Rea wrote: > > > Good afternoon Dan-- > > > > I suppose there is some reading to be made of the slope of the MACD. It > > is, after all, composed of MAs. What I take most from the situation you > > described is that there is an equilibrium of forces on price seen not > > only on the MACD but probably on the 3/7/10 EMA also. > > > > However, the MACD can give positive and negative divergences, and it is > > from these divergences that the prospect of change is inferred. Take > > DELL, for example. The MACD in May was of little value though you could > > make money by using the 3/7/10. But, then, about 5-21 the MACD turned > > clearly sell and remained so for three weeks, was ambiguous for a week, > > and then turned to buy below the trigger line. I am not sure how to > > read, or if there is a read, on the inclination or declination. At > > least, there is none that I see. > > > > Too, how you scale the chart can make a measurable difference. > > > > Thanks for the mail. Let me know if I've not answered your question. > > > > Connie > > > > Dan Cash wrote: > > > > > Good morning Connie, > > > > > > Looks as though you probably profited with DELL. > > > > > > With interday charts I often see the MACD the trigger line hugging > > > the signal line, either above or below zero, however the slope of > > > the two are gently inclining or declining and the price trendless > > > and flat. > > > > > > Do you give any weight to the *slope* of the MACD? > > > > > > Always appreciating your posts and POV. > > > > > > Thanks > > > > > > Dan > > > > > > - > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Real-time free streaming quotes Date: 26 Jul 1999 13:20:42 -0700 Connie, your real-time streaming quotes site that you posted yesterday only displays limit orders for only NASDAQ stocks (I'm sure you knew this but didn't mention it in your post). I wondered why the vol was so low as compared to Schwab so I read their fine print - it seems market orders are not displayed. Still useful to a degree, i.e. if you like to try and split the bid/ask with a limit order, you can see where the majority of limit orders are sitting & piggyback with them. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] New ReeseGroup Site [Connie Mack] Date: 28 Jul 1999 17:20:37 -0400 Reesegroup sent me this today. They have some good stuff useful to CSers. Reesegroup.com (http://www.reesegroup.com/home.asp?emaillist=free) would like to announce that it is eliminating fees associated with its premium services. We have converted to a FREE service due primarily to overwhelming feedback from our customers in our recent site survey. It goes to show that feedback does actually work! We apologize to those who have already signed up, and assure you that there will be no charge to your account. We would also like to take this chance to announce our new site rollout. We have greatly improved the look and flow of our site in order to make your experience more enjoyable. In addition, we added new tools to our IDEA ENGINE, which we urge you to utilize. http://www.reesegroup.com/ideasjump.asp?emaillist=free Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dan Cash Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MACD Date: 28 Jul 1999 14:49:19 -0700 Thanks Connie. You helped. Dan Connie Mack Rea wrote: > Dan-- > > The sell signal on the MACD and its following declination does tell me this. > While the MACD has continued to decline from around 12:00 to 2:00, it is > showing a negative divergence with price. I.e., price remains flat while the > MACD is implying price decline. > > And that decline does come in price. To this minute the MACD is in decline. > > When the 3/7/10 EMA turned down, it was soon confirmed by the MACD. > > To look elsewhere, you'll see on BigCharts that momentum turned modestly down > and that Volume+ dropped off. > > If you've not a place to adjust some of the indicators [MACD, e.g.], go to this > site: - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Real-time free streaming quotes Date: 28 Jul 1999 17:57:18 -0400 Thanks, Tim-- Too, you can almost always buy DELL on the bid. Am hoping to find a free real time chart for the members. It's just a matter of time before somebody offers one. Connie Tim Fisher wrote: > Connie, your real-time streaming quotes site that you posted yesterday only > displays limit orders for only NASDAQ stocks (I'm sure you knew this but didn't > mention it in your post). I wondered why the vol was so low as compared to > Schwab so I read their fine print - it seems market orders are not displayed. > Still useful to a degree, i.e. if you like to try and split the bid/ask with a > limit order, you can see where the majority of limit orders are sitting & > piggyback with them. > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Earl Setser" Subject: [CANSLIM] RPS Plots Date: 28 Jul 1999 17:48:49 -0700 Does anyone here know of a free chart link that provides RPS plots? I have searched about everywhere I can think of and all I can find is the day's value. I'm sure DGO has this info, but I'm using IBD and manual work to get my data right now. I'm missing the RPS charts except for the ones the IBD puts in each paper (30 stocks or so). Thanks. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Pinakin Patel Subject: [CANSLIM] Starter Kit Date: 29 Jul 1999 13:39:47 +0100 Please allow me the indulgence of asking some very basic questions. I have only dealt with execution-only brokers so I am not too aware of the various services that may be available, I would be grateful if someone would enlighten me!. My main query is that once you have determined an entry price, how do you then go about buying the stock at that price (do you instruct the broker on a daily basis?). Similiarly how do you set the 'automatic stop' sell instructions? My current broker offers none of these facilities! Bottom line: What sort of a broker do I need and how can I find a good one ? I know a lot of you out there are using various tools (free and fee based). It would be nice to find out what sort of tools (and where they can be found) a person such as my self who is just starting out would benefit from! I am slightly confused, it seems to me that some of you are day trading but I dont see how canslim techniques can be of any help here? Again I would be interested to find out what sort of tools you would require for this sort of trading! My final quandary for the moment is that I only have access to the internet outside office hours (i.e when I am at home) - how important is to monitor the market while its open? Is it possible to be a successfull investor operating this way or would it be useful to buy some sort of a gadget that will provide access to the share prices all the time - unfortunately here in the UK the only thing I've come across is a Pager device or to use a laptop with a mobile phone! I would also like to take this opportunity to ask the group how benefitial/successfull (and what sort of a difference) using the CANSLIM system has made to their investments? Thanking you for your indulgence Pinakin CRESTCo Ltd. The views expressed above are not necessarily those 33 Cannon Street. held by CRESTCo Limited. London EC4M 5SB (UK) +44 (0) 171 849 0000 http://www.crestco.co.uk - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Earl Setser" Subject: [CANSLIM] Great Site for Us Date: 29 Jul 1999 10:27:54 -0700 Well, once again, Connie has found a Jewel for us CANSLIMers, www.reesegroup.com. I think this one is going to be a real timesaver for me. (I hope the data turns out accurate for earnings, etc. I did find one smaller stock (TTIL) that the site didn't have earnings for.) I wanted to post the features of the site, in case someone else missed some of the items. Thanks Connie!! There is the capability to pull up a list of stocks with strong interest and some interest given their interpretation of CANSLIM. They are pretty close for most of the items. This is a good feature that may be of some use. However, a couple of the items have some twists that are a little different, and the weight they put on various items may not be what you desire. Still, an interesting screen that is of some use for me. The real jewel for me is the ability to look up a specific stock and review it for CANSLIM criteria. This is the best CANSLIM summary I've seen (for free anyway).If you select Research Wizards, input a symbol, and then select WON, you get a full rundown on the CANSLIM characteristics of that stock. And I mean FULL RUNDOWN. Here is the list of items that are checked for each stock. In each case, there is a paragraph that gives the CANSLIM criteria used, and the data on the stock. There is a summary of PASS or FAIL for each item. Look at the quarterly EPS change (This quarter vs. same quarter last year) Look at annual earnings growth (PASS) : Look at the earnings consistency (PASS) : Look at the current price level (FAIL) : Look at the 4 month S&P relative strength line (FAIL) : Look at the price performance compared to all other stocks (PASS) : Look for confirmation of at least one other leading stock in the industry Look for leading industries (PASS) : Look to see if Long-term Debt/Equity has been decreasing (PASS) : Look at Return on Equity (PASS) : Look at the shares outstanding (PASS) : Look at the insider ownership (PASS) : Look for something new and/or of major significance in the business: NOTE the report doesn't give you any data for this catergory, so you are still on your own on this one!! Look at the institutional ownership (PASS) : Uses only a minimum, so this is not the full story For those of you still reading, there is one other features of interest. If you register, you can give it a list of stocks you are interested in, and it will keep you notified of changes in the ratings of the stock. I haven't explored this much, but it might be a good way to: A. Keep an eye on your stocks for any CANSLIM changes you might miss (EPS drops, ROE drops, etc. B. Keep an eye on CANSLIM candidates that are outside the price goals, or other criteria, but you are interested in watching for CANSLIM improvement. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Great Site for Us Date: 29 Jul 1999 12:56:55 -0400 You're welcome, Earl. Connie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: warrenz@surfree.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Great Site for Us Date: 29 Jul 1999 10:09:53 -0700 Hi Everybody, Just a note on reesegroup.com. It is a nice site with a lot of info for sophisticated investors who understand various approaches. But there are a few things I noticed since I started using their service that are not really perfect. For example, let's take ATML, which is a semiconductor company riding the upswing of the industry cycle. reesegroup Guru rankings showed no interest from anybody. I checked into the details of some of the Guru's reasons. Most of the reasons belong to what I call erroneous judgement based on past data, by which I mean analytical numbers are calculated from the fundamental data of last period. This is a common problem with most screening services out there. The right thing to do is of course to use the forward numbers, and investors, that's us, have to judge the quality of forward numbers put out by analysts. In the case of ATML, the numbers available for past period is not very promising. So is the case for MU and TXN, or most of semi companies, simply because they just came out of the bottom of a down cycle. But forward numbers are more accurate and reflective of semi stocks sustaining earning powers. A good place I have found that utilized more of the forward looking data in ranking stocks is http://www.wysestreet.com. Their approach seems to be geared more towards novice investors with their Question & Answer technique like a search engine. But they do have a ranking system that, in my experience, is more forward looking. I followed the rankings there on semi stocks lately, and it didn't seem to have missed the rally there. Also you can ask for rankings at your price, which is niffty. For example if ATML is ranked a buy at 30( or BIRDIE as they call it ), what if at 36 or 43? I use it this way to get an idea on what price I can take profit. It's FREE so check it out. Anyway, keep the messages going CSlimers, 'cause most of time I just to read what people are thinking. On Thu, 29 July 1999, "Earl Setser" wrote: > > Well, once again, Connie has found a Jewel for us CANSLIMers, > www.reesegroup.com. I think this one is going to be a real timesaver for > me. (I hope the data turns out accurate for earnings, etc. I did find one > smaller stock (TTIL) that the site didn't have earnings for.) I wanted to > post the features of the site, in case someone else missed some of the > items. Thanks Connie!! > > There is the capability to pull up a list of stocks with strong interest > and some interest given their interpretation of CANSLIM. They are pretty > close for most of the items. This is a good feature that may be of some > use. However, a couple of the items have some twists that are a little > different, and the weight they put on various items may not be what you > desire. Still, an interesting screen that is of some use for me. > > The real jewel for me is the ability to look up a specific stock and review > it for CANSLIM criteria. This is the best CANSLIM summary I've seen (for > free anyway).If you select Research Wizards, input a symbol, and then > select WON, you get a full rundown on the CANSLIM characteristics of that > stock. And I mean FULL RUNDOWN. Here is the list of items that are > checked for each stock. In each case, there is a paragraph that gives the > CANSLIM criteria used, and the data on the stock. There is a summary of > PASS or FAIL for each item. > > Look at the quarterly EPS change (This quarter vs. same quarter last year) > Look at annual earnings growth (PASS) : > Look at the earnings consistency (PASS) : > Look at the current price level (FAIL) : > Look at the 4 month S&P relative strength line (FAIL) : > Look at the price performance compared to all other stocks (PASS) : > Look for confirmation of at least one other leading stock in the industry > Look for leading industries (PASS) : > Look to see if Long-term Debt/Equity has been decreasing (PASS) : > Look at Return on Equity (PASS) : > Look at the shares outstanding (PASS) : > Look at the insider ownership (PASS) : > Look for something new and/or of major significance in the business: NOTE > the report doesn't give you any data for this catergory, so you are still > on your own on this one!! > Look at the institutional ownership (PASS) : Uses only a minimum, so this > is not the full story > > For those of you still reading, there is one other features of interest. > If you register, you can give it a list of stocks you are interested in, > and it will keep you notified of changes in the ratings of the stock. I > haven't explored this much, but it might be a good way to: > > A. Keep an eye on your stocks for any CANSLIM changes you might miss (EPS > drops, ROE drops, etc. > > B. Keep an eye on CANSLIM candidates that are outside the price goals, or > other criteria, but you are interested in watching for CANSLIM improvement. > > > - $14.95 Unlimited Internet Access, http://www.surfree.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] My worst fear Date: 29 Jul 1999 20:57:44 +0200 My worst fear at this moment is that someone will step forward on CNBC, CNN, a website, a newsgroup or even here, and give an ad hoc explanation why, from an economic viewpoint, the market is correcting/consolidating. And how you could have seen it comming. Why do I fear that? Because I wonder what good it is for those who have NOT analysed the market the CANSLIM way as WON intended it to be. Those who are unneccesarily sitting there with sizable losses (again). Those who after reading that economically inspired explanation will think that they need to learn all about these economic factors. Or that they couldn't have avoid these losses. While the thruth is that they should NOT care about the economic explanations in view of their CANSLIM investing. They should learn to read the market indices and watch the leading stocks. And maybe learn to draw a trendline and look at a were support and resistance is, but even this is not absolutely necessary. So, please fellow CANSLIMers, make sure the newbies here are not led down the "wrong" pad. Johan === - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] My worst fear Date: 29 Jul 1999 14:44:06 -0500 (CDT) So, here is your worst fear. CNBC indicated before market opening that the Employment Cost Index announcement was what the market was reacting to. Within moments of the ECI announcement, the S&P Futures dropped 10 points. Robert Gammon rgammon51@pdq.net On Thu, 29 Jul 1999 20:57:44 +0200, Johan Van Houtven wrote: >My worst fear at this moment is that someone will step forward on CNBC, >CNN, a website, a newsgroup or even here, and give an ad hoc explanation >why, from an economic viewpoint, the market is correcting/consolidating. >And how you could have seen it comming. > >Why do I fear that? Because I wonder what good it is for those who have NOT >analysed the market the CANSLIM way as WON intended it to be. Those who are >unneccesarily sitting there with sizable losses (again). Those who after >reading that economically inspired explanation will think that they need to >learn all about these economic factors. Or that they couldn't have avoid >these losses. > >While the thruth is that they should NOT care about the economic >explanations in view of their CANSLIM investing. They should learn to read >the market indices and watch the leading stocks. And maybe learn to draw a >trendline and look at a were support and resistance is, but even this is >not absolutely necessary. > >So, please fellow CANSLIMers, make sure the newbies here are not led down >the "wrong" pad. > > > >Johan === > > > >- > > Robert Gammon rgammon51@pdq.net - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] Hucksters, Hypsters and Dan Rather... Date: 29 Jul 1999 18:54:05 -0400 > I believed too many stories and didn't pay sufficient attention to the > true signs. > > Dan Whose stories were you listening to? Sorry to hear about your loss, Dan. Glad to hear you are in cash. Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] SPAM Date: 29 Jul 1999 19:06:54 -0400 Tim wrote: > Date: 26 Jul 1999 10:53:23 -0700 > From: "Tim Fisher" > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] INVERSE CANSLIM !! > > Jeff, can you please dump this person? I already get enough SPAM! I appreciate that the note was to Jeff Salisbury. However, could you please provide your definition of the word SPAM? Seemed like a genuine MANSLIC post, to me with an invitation to make a private reply. Jeffry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SPAM Date: 27 Jul 1999 16:44:40 -0700 Seemed like a disguised SPAM to me. Wouldn't be surprised if they wanted to take your money for the advice either. The nonsense email name (looked like random keystrokes to me), hotmail account, and the lack of any other posts from that "member" (including any attempt to defend that post) are also hints that they are a spammer expecting to get booted. Or maybe I'm a paranoid old fart (well not as old as Tom anyway ;} I wouldn't On 04:06 PM 7/29/99 , postwhit@sover.net Said: >Tim wrote: > >> Date: 26 Jul 1999 10:53:23 -0700 >> From: "Tim Fisher" >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] INVERSE CANSLIM !! >> >> Jeff, can you please dump this person? I already get enough SPAM! > > >I appreciate that the note was to Jeff Salisbury. However, could you >please provide your definition of the word SPAM? Seemed like a genuine >MANSLIC post, to me with an invitation to make a private reply. > >Jeffry > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: warrenz@surfree.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SPAM Date: 29 Jul 1999 19:11:31 -0700 Since I posted my first email after observing for a while, I am a little surprised to see this message and worried that if mine was the culprit. I wrote a message today in response to a few other ones discussing the newly discovered Reesegroup site, in which I made a few observations between Reesegroup site and WyseStreet site, both of which I have been using in my trading. I guess my message was not the one mentioned in this email, because I don't have a hotmail email address. Strange that I didn't see any other messages from hotmail. By the way I started investing with Canslim but migrated towards a more diversified approach to include some of the thoughts on Reese and WyseStreet. But Yahoo Finance is still my primary site for research fundamental data. I have been seeing postings by folks in this list focusing more on technical stuff than I do. I wonder if anybody has found anything on the web that can do pattern recognition to identify O'Neil's favorite patterns such as cup&handle and double-bottom etc. Thanks. On Tue, 27 July 1999, "Tim Fisher" wrote: > > Seemed like a disguised SPAM to me. Wouldn't be surprised if they wanted to > take your money for the advice either. The nonsense email name (looked like > random keystrokes to me), hotmail account, and the lack of any other posts from > that "member" (including any attempt to defend that post) are also hints that > they are a spammer expecting to get booted. > > Or maybe I'm a paranoid old fart (well not as old as Tom anyway ;} > > I wouldn't On 04:06 PM 7/29/99 , postwhit@sover.net Said: > >Tim wrote: > > > >> Date: 26 Jul 1999 10:53:23 -0700 > >> From: "Tim Fisher" > >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] INVERSE CANSLIM !! > >> > >> Jeff, can you please dump this person? I already get enough SPAM! > > > > > >I appreciate that the note was to Jeff Salisbury. However, could you > >please provide your definition of the word SPAM? Seemed like a genuine > >MANSLIC post, to me with an invitation to make a private reply. > > > >Jeffry > > > >- > > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - $14.95 Unlimited Internet Access, http://www.surfree.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SPAM Date: 29 Jul 1999 21:13:51 -0700 Nope, not you. It was touting shorting via "reverse CANSLIM" and promise "more info" if you emailed them. At 07:11 PM 7/29/99 -0700, you wrote: >Since I posted my first email after observing for a while, I am a little >surprised to see this message and worried that if mine was the culprit. >I wrote a message today in response to a few other ones discussing >the newly discovered Reesegroup site, in which I made a few observations >between Reesegroup site and WyseStreet site, both of which I have been >using in my trading. I guess my message was not the one mentioned in this >email, because I don't have a hotmail email address. Strange that I didn't >see any other messages from hotmail. > >By the way I started investing with Canslim but migrated towards a more >diversified approach to include some of the thoughts on Reese and WyseStreet. >But Yahoo Finance is still my primary site for research fundamental data. >I have been seeing postings by folks in this list focusing more on technical >stuff than I do. I wonder if anybody has found anything on the web that >can do pattern recognition to identify O'Neil's favorite patterns such as >cup&handle and double-bottom etc. > >Thanks. Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "george paskins" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SPAM Date: 29 Jul 1999 23:24:56 -0500 Tim, Lighten-up man. ---------- > From: Tim Fisher > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SPAM > Date: Thursday, July 29, 1999 11:13 PM > > Nope, not you. It was touting shorting via "reverse CANSLIM" and promise > "more info" if you emailed them. > > At 07:11 PM 7/29/99 -0700, you wrote: > >Since I posted my first email after observing for a while, I am a little > >surprised to see this message and worried that if mine was the culprit. > >I wrote a message today in response to a few other ones discussing > >the newly discovered Reesegroup site, in which I made a few observations > >between Reesegroup site and WyseStreet site, both of which I have been > >using in my trading. I guess my message was not the one mentioned in this > >email, because I don't have a hotmail email address. Strange that I didn't > >see any other messages from hotmail. > > > >By the way I started investing with Canslim but migrated towards a more > >diversified approach to include some of the thoughts on Reese and WyseStreet. > >But Yahoo Finance is still my primary site for research fundamental data. > >I have been seeing postings by folks in this list focusing more on technical > >stuff than I do. I wonder if anybody has found anything on the web that > >can do pattern recognition to identify O'Neil's favorite patterns such as > >cup&handle and double-bottom etc. > > > >Thanks. > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > PFB Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: boshers@freewwweb.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Real-time free streaming quotes Date: 30 Jul 1999 08:42:08 GMT On Wed, 28 Jul 1999 17:57:18 -0400, Connie wrote: >Am hoping to find a free real time chart for the members. It's just a = matter of >time before somebody offers one. I've found this site to be useful: http://www.quote.com/livechartscom/livechart Regards, Andrew Boshers boshers@freewwweb.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market - A NonManslic Perspective on M Date: 30 Jul 1999 10:27:52 +0200 John wrote: >1) My current prognosis (70% chance vs down from here) is: > >- We're still oversold so should bounce back. Mr Greenspans comments cooled >everyone off but sometime between Monday and Wednesday we will move out of >down/sideways mode and we will begin the next upwards leg similar to >March-June this year on the DJI. >- When we hit the recent highs we will either go through them with good >volume or bounce back for a couple of days before continuing up. Intuitively >I feel that we will bounce down because so many are nervous but >"psychological" technical theory suggests that the most nervous may have >been shaken out on Thursday and Friday, which will lead to a quicker rise. >The number of stops taken out late last week would also help create a clean >rise as these people start to buy back in to their stocks. >- When we go through last weeks highs the technical reading seems to be a >fairly clean rise to about 12,200. The basis for this view is that the >consolidation in June-July at 10,700 could be considered to be as the mid >point for an interrupted rise from 9,200 in January. Another view is that >15%-20% is around the average rise for any intermediate leg of a bull market >and this would put the average at 12,300-12,800. > >Once we get to the top, some people are suggesting that we have topped the >bull market and Y2K nervousness will trigger the next bear market so I'll be >increasingly in cash around this time. > >2) My 30% prognosis is that we go down from here. This seems less likely >because the normal indicators people use to pick market failure like the >NYSE breadth indicators and VIX don't seem to be in "crash mode". > >Sorry that I cant provide any certainty :-) I've got stops under the next >resistance level for everything I currently own and when I wake up tomorrow >morning (7am in New Zealand is 3pm Wall St Time) I'll be very interested to >see how I performed. How are things going? How do you see things now? -- Johan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Hucksters, Hypsters and Dan Rather... Date: 30 Jul 1999 14:11:40 GMT On Thu, 29 Jul 1999 18:54:05 -0400, you wrote: :> I believed too many stories and didn't pay sufficient attention to the :> true signs. :>=20 :> Dan : :Whose stories were you listening to? : :Sorry to hear about your loss, Dan. Glad to hear you are in cash. : :Jeffry Who's stories? Well, I've been watching NBR -- the Nightly Business Report on PBS, where they parade one or two *experts* by you each night M-F. I kind of lost my touch... By and large I think I've benefited from watching the program. I don't know that I've every bought a stock because someone said it would do well there (they get alot of that), but it gives me a daily gestalt, if you will. Lately I also read "The Big Picture" in IBD, FWIW. Unfortunately, about an hour before market close yesterday I went bottom fishing for some RNWK. It looked cheap at 78 and change, but today so far it's weak. I won't let myself lose too much if it doesn't come around. If I lose on this one too, I will give very serious consideration to taking up the short side. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Dan, the man... ;^) Date: 30 Jul 1999 17:20:31 +0200 Dan wrote to Jeffry: >Who's stories? Well, I've been watching NBR -- the Nightly Business >Report on PBS, where they parade one or two *experts* by you each night >M-F. I kind of lost my touch... By and large I think I've benefited >from watching the program. I don't know that I've every bought a stock >because someone said it would do well there (they get alot of that), but >it gives me a daily gestalt, if you will. Lately I also read "The Big >Picture" in IBD, FWIW. Dan, as you know I can't get IBD here, so I'd like to ask what "The Big Picture" is about. Can you maybe give an example of what they write in there? >Unfortunately, about an hour before market close yesterday I went bottom >fishing for some RNWK. It looked cheap at 78 and change, but today so >far it's weak. I won't let myself lose too much if it doesn't come >around. If I lose on this one too, I will give very serious >consideration to taking up the short side. Some unrelated quick comments if I may: No matter what happens Dan you have already won IMO. You admitted your possible error quickly and brought it into the open. I have said this before, and I will say it again: That is the sign a (future) winner. Not that I am such a winner and a know-it-all. FAR from it. BUT I do know that this is true. If you bought a 1000 or more you already have a nice "daytraders" profit, since it hit 79.5 For a true long I'd stay away from it because there are bound to be many people out there who bought at higher prices (04/13 was all time high) and are sitting on a loss. They will most likely sell now that tax-loss sellling season is nearly here. What do you consider cheap? IMHO cheap is relative. E.g.: RNWK was approx 5 times "cheaper" a year ago. Johan === - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dan, the man... ;^) Big PX Date: 30 Jul 1999 12:22:12 -0700 (PDT) Johan- Here are some brief notes of today's Big Picture. They really don't do justice, but you will get an idea of the content. Leader: AAlan Greenspan's fears came true Thursday, and Wall Street cowered on cue." 1. Labor market is tight with upward wage pressure but economy is growing faster than expected. interest rates may raise 2. Yield on TBond 30 yr. is at highest level in a month. 6.07% 3. NYSE declines overpowered advances 11-4. Blue Chips (S&P 500) undercut their lows of Monday, while NAZ stayed above lows. Dow and S&P looking for a new bottom. NAZ attempted rally intact. 4. Volume moderate. May mean more selling in store. Bottoms often happen when selling hits a climax and no more investors are willing to part with their stocks. 5. 25 of 30 Dow stocks down. Talks about failed break outs being common when market is struggling so it is good to hold off new buys until the general averages find support and turn up. Mentions American Express falling back into base and JNJ falling out of handle of 12 wk cup/handle base. 6. 100 stocks made new highs. Handful of market leaders with EPS and RS above 90 also higher. Names: QLogic and CTS. Keep eye on top stocks. If they break, this modest correction could get serious. TM _____________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Free instant messaging and more at http://messenger.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dan, the man... ;^) Big PX Date: 30 Jul 1999 21:43:18 +0200 At 12:22 PM 7/30/99 -0700, you wrote: >Johan- >Here are some brief notes of today's Big Picture. They really don't do justice, but you will get >an idea of the content. Leader: AAlan Greenspan's fears came true Thursday, and Wall Street >cowered on cue." > >1. Labor market is tight with upward wage pressure but economy is growing faster than expected. > interest rates may raise >2. Yield on TBond 30 yr. is at highest level in a month. 6.07% >3. NYSE declines overpowered advances 11-4. Blue Chips (S&P 500) undercut their lows of Monday, >while NAZ stayed above lows. Dow and S&P looking for a new bottom. NAZ attempted rally intact. >4. Volume moderate. May mean more selling in store. Bottoms often happen when selling hits a >climax and no more investors are willing to part with their stocks. >5. 25 of 30 Dow stocks down. Talks about failed break outs being common when market is >struggling so it is good to hold off new buys until the general averages find support and turn up. >Mentions American Express falling back into base and JNJ falling out of handle of 12 wk cup/handle >base. >6. 100 stocks made new highs. Handful of market leaders with EPS and RS above 90 also higher. >Names: QLogic and CTS. Keep eye on top stocks. If they break, this modest correction could get >serious. > >TM > > >_____________________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Free instant messaging and more at http://messenger.yahoo.com > > >- > > Johan === - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dan, the man... ;^) Big PX Date: 30 Jul 1999 21:43:10 +0200 At 12:22 PM 7/30/99 -0700, you wrote: >Johan- >Here are some brief notes of today's Big Picture. They really don't do justice, but you will get >an idea of the content. Leader: AAlan Greenspan's fears came true Thursday, and Wall Street >cowered on cue." > >1. Labor market is tight with upward wage pressure but economy is growing faster than expected. > interest rates may raise >2. Yield on TBond 30 yr. is at highest level in a month. 6.07% >3. NYSE declines overpowered advances 11-4. Blue Chips (S&P 500) undercut their lows of Monday, >while NAZ stayed above lows. Dow and S&P looking for a new bottom. NAZ attempted rally intact. >4. Volume moderate. May mean more selling in store. Bottoms often happen when selling hits a >climax and no more investors are willing to part with their stocks. >5. 25 of 30 Dow stocks down. Talks about failed break outs being common when market is >struggling so it is good to hold off new buys until the general averages find support and turn up. >Mentions American Express falling back into base and JNJ falling out of handle of 12 wk cup/handle >base. >6. 100 stocks made new highs. Handful of market leaders with EPS and RS above 90 also higher. >Names: QLogic and CTS. Keep eye on top stocks. If they break, this modest correction could get >serious. > >TM > > >_____________________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Free instant messaging and more at http://messenger.yahoo.com > > >- > > Johan === - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dan, the man... ;^) Big PX Date: 30 Jul 1999 21:44:43 +0200 TM, thanks. Now I have an idea about what the Big Picture is about. At 12:22 PM 7/30/99 -0700, you wrote: >Johan- >Here are some brief notes of today's Big Picture. They really don't do justice, >get >but you will an idea of the content. Johan === - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Sorry for posts without reply Date: 30 Jul 1999 21:52:58 +0200 Sorry for the 2 post without a reply attached to them. After clicking the reply button in Eudora it hung twice, so I couldn't reply. But I now see that these reply attemps still ended up in the Out-bound directory as posts without a reply. Johan === - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: PWahl@sysinn.com Subject: [CANSLIM] ADVP Date: 30 Jul 1999 13:56:31 -0600 Someone else can comment on this one if they have an opinion - I've been watching Advance Paradigm (ADVP) lately, it has held up very well under the recent nasdaq volatility. Volume has dried up recently as it has gone sideways, usually a good sign. It has formed a sort of handle, although it doesn't have the downward drift that is supposed to be desirable at this stage of the base building. Anyway, looks good to me if the market environment doesn't turn too much more unfavorable. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: warrenz@surfree.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dan, the man... ;^) Big PX Date: 30 Jul 1999 14:14:14 -0700 TM, Thanks for the analysis. I haven't been on this list long enough to know you. But I wonder how often you perform this kind of analysis? Every week, month? Do you regularly post them? -warren On Fri, 30 July 1999, TM wrote: > > Johan- > Here are some brief notes of today's Big Picture. They really don't do justice, but you will get > an idea of the content. Leader: AAlan Greenspan's fears came true Thursday, and Wall Street > cowered on cue." > > 1. Labor market is tight with upward wage pressure but economy is growing faster than expected. > interest rates may raise > 2. Yield on TBond 30 yr. is at highest level in a month. 6.07% > 3. NYSE declines overpowered advances 11-4. Blue Chips (S&P 500) undercut their lows of Monday, > while NAZ stayed above lows. Dow and S&P looking for a new bottom. NAZ attempted rally intact. > 4. Volume moderate. May mean more selling in store. Bottoms often happen when selling hits a > climax and no more investors are willing to part with their stocks. > 5. 25 of 30 Dow stocks down. Talks about failed break outs being common when market is > struggling so it is good to hold off new buys until the general averages find support and turn up. > Mentions American Express falling back into base and JNJ falling out of handle of 12 wk cup/handle > base. > 6. 100 stocks made new highs. Handful of market leaders with EPS and RS above 90 also higher. > Names: QLogic and CTS. Keep eye on top stocks. If they break, this modest correction could get > serious. > > TM > > > _____________________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Free instant messaging and more at http://messenger.yahoo.com > > > - $14.95 Unlimited Internet Access, http://www.surfree.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: postwhit@sover.net Subject: [CANSLIM] Dan the Man!! Date: 30 Jul 1999 18:02:15 -0400 > Who's stories? Well, I've been watching NBR -- the Nightly Business > Report on PBS, where they parade one or two *experts* by you each night > M-F. I kind of lost my touch... By and large I think I've benefited > from watching the program. I no longer have a sattelite dish (too far out in the country to get cable), can't get PBS, CBS or ABC. And NBC is not worth watching. I cancelled my IBD subscription cuz of that Fleckenstein writer in the Investor's Corner section. Don't read the local paper, but I am getting the Extension Service's "Agriview" twice monthly. Listen to NPR to and from work, and try to avoid reading news articles on Yahoo, etc. But, *STILL*, there is noise. Mostly in my head. I can't figure out how to turn it off short of some stint like a Nicolas Darvas telegram existence from a remote Bahamian cay. Maybe what I need is more news and experts to drown out the noise in my head. What do you advise? Jeff - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dan, the man... ;^) Big PX Date: 30 Jul 1999 16:52:01 -0700 (PDT) Hi, Warren. Nice to meet you. The analysis was not mine. It comes straight from the IBD. I have never posted notes about the Big Picture in the IBD before. Johan was curious about the Big Picture and I decided to send him a few notes from today's issue. Mostly I lurk and ask questions. TM --- warrenz@surfree.com wrote: > TM, > > Thanks for the analysis. I haven't been on this list long enough > to know you. But I wonder how often you perform this kind of analysis? > Every week, month? Do you regularly post them? > > -warren > > > On Fri, 30 July 1999, TM wrote: > > > > > Johan- > > Here are some brief notes of today's Big Picture. They really don't do justice, but you will > get > > an idea of the content. Leader: AAlan Greenspan's fears came true Thursday, and Wall Street > > cowered on cue." > > > > 1. Labor market is tight with upward wage pressure but economy is growing faster than > expected. > > interest rates may raise > > 2. Yield on TBond 30 yr. is at highest level in a month. 6.07% > > 3. NYSE declines overpowered advances 11-4. Blue Chips (S&P 500) undercut their lows of > Monday, > > while NAZ stayed above lows. Dow and S&P looking for a new bottom. NAZ attempted rally > intact. > > 4. Volume moderate. May mean more selling in store. Bottoms often happen when selling hits a > > climax and no more investors are willing to part with their stocks. > > 5. 25 of 30 Dow stocks down. Talks about failed break outs being common when market is > > struggling so it is good to hold off new buys until the general averages find support and turn > up. > > Mentions American Express falling back into base and JNJ falling out of handle of 12 wk > cup/handle > > base. > > 6. 100 stocks made new highs. Handful of market leaders with EPS and RS above 90 also > higher. > > Names: QLogic and CTS. Keep eye on top stocks. If they break, this modest correction could > get > > serious. > > > > TM > > > > > > _____________________________________________________________ > > Do You Yahoo!? > > Free instant messaging and more at http://messenger.yahoo.com > > > > > > - > > > -------------------------------------------------------- > $14.95 Unlimited Internet Access, http://www.surfree.com > > - > > _____________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Free instant messaging and more at http://messenger.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Drive yourself crazy: 962 Item Bibliography of Charting [Connie Mack] Date: 30 Jul 1999 22:05:57 -0400 There is so much material here that you'll drive yourself crazy trying to look at interesting sites. Plan to spend an evening researching. The bibliography has 962 items on charting. http://wsdinc.com/cgi-local/t_lookup_gen_2.cgi Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Starter Kit Date: 30 Jul 1999 20:21:04 -0800 > I am slightly confused, it seems to me that some of you are day trading but I dont see how canslim techniques can be of any help here? Again I would be interested to find out what sort of tools you would require for this sort of trading! There is a small but voluble group of daytraders on the list, and it really does not have anything to do with CANSLIM. You should be aware that if you decide to follow this discussion it is a completely different discipline. Don't know how to help a UK guy with a broker questions. Only thought is to find a broker that allows you to place orders both via phone and over the internet, you can then dump orders in at night on the internet, or adjust stops and so on at home after doing your analysis. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] How quickly will I get rid of the noise in my head? Date: 31 Jul 1999 11:33:32 +0200 Jeffry wrote: >I no longer have a sattelite dish (too far out in the country to get >cable), can't get PBS, CBS or ABC. And NBC is not worth watching. I >cancelled my IBD subscription cuz of that Fleckenstein writer in the >Investor's Corner section. Don't read the local paper, but I am getting >the Extension Service's "Agriview" twice monthly. Listen to NPR to and >from work, and try to avoid reading news articles on Yahoo, etc. > >But, *STILL*, there is noise. Mostly in my head. I can't figure out >how to turn it off short of some stint like a Nicolas Darvas telegram >existence from a remote Bahamian cay. Jeffry, Maybe I can help. I wonder how quickly you will be able to turn of that noise in your head and replace it with delighful sounds that make you feel just the way you want to feel. For starters you might want to try this out: Often you can minimize or remove such a noise by changing the submodalities. Expermiment by changing and/or varying the following auditory submodalities and notice which ones are most effective for you. Location: Do you hear it from the inside or from the outside? Wher does the sound (voice) originate? Pitch: Is it high-pitched or low-pitched? It the pitch higher or lower than normal? Tonality: What is the tonality: nasal, full and rich, thin, grating? Melody: Is it a monotome or is there a melodic range? Inflection: Which parts are accentuated? Volume: How loud is it? Tempo: Is it fast or slow? Rhythm: Does it have a beat or a cadence? Duration: Is it continuous or intermittent? Mono/stereo: Do you hear it on one side, both sides, or is the sound all around you? Once you know which auditory submodalites are most effective for you, you can use these to make changes quickly and permanently. But first things first. Go through the auditory submodality list above. Expermint by changing the submodalities like the turning the volume up or down and notice if there is and difference in your response. Quick example of the use of auditory submodality variations: We often don't use or brains deliberately. Our responces are often automatic. An example of an automatic responce is when people criticize themselves inside their heads and feel bad. Who is criticizing who? Who's in there? To change the responce, to use your brain deliberately, is not so hard. Listen to the voice and notice the tonality, the pitch, the volume. Also notice how you feel when you speak to yourself in that way. Now, remember someone who said things to you that you liked in a particularly delightful way. Hear that voice inside your head. Then change the content and say those critical things to yourself, the ones that made you feel bad, in that pleasant and delightful tonality. Notice how differently you are able to respond to the same critical words. Important note: Reading this is NOT going to give you results. Reading this gives you information. You have to ACT to turn the information into useful experience and results. Analogy: To my knowledge, no one has ever learnt to ride a bike solely by reading a book. Have fun, Johan === - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dan the Man!! Date: 31 Jul 1999 15:44:59 GMT On Fri, 30 Jul 1999 18:02:15 -0400, you wrote: :> Who's stories? Well, I've been watching NBR -- the Nightly Business :> Report on PBS, where they parade one or two *experts* by you each = night :> M-F. I kind of lost my touch... By and large I think I've benefited :> from watching the program. : :I no longer have a sattelite dish (too far out in the country to get :cable), can't get PBS, CBS or ABC. And NBC is not worth watching. I :cancelled my IBD subscription cuz of that Fleckenstein writer in the :Investor's Corner section. Don't read the local paper, but I am getting :the Extension Service's "Agriview" twice monthly. Listen to NPR to and :from work, and try to avoid reading news articles on Yahoo, etc. : :But, *STILL*, there is noise. Mostly in my head. I can't figure out :how to turn it off short of some stint like a Nicolas Darvas telegram :existence from a remote Bahamian cay. : :Maybe what I need is more news and experts to drown out the noise in my :head. What do you advise? : :Jeff Noise? Well, you haven't been terribly clear on the nature of the noise. I remember you saying that you don't keep lists and that you have a lot of stuff going on in your head (all the time?). Well, I thought the not keeping of lists was probably exemplary and quite interesting, especially since I have had a problem with too many lists. Lately, I don't have time to make those lists, except I have them on my computer now, so I suppose it's just taken another form, though perhaps easier to deal with. AFA the stuff (aka noise) in your head, well, I thought that might not be a bad thing, at least sometimes. Since you consider it a problem (at least sometimes) I guess it is a problem (at least at times). Allen Ginsberg talked about the problem he had shutting off stuff in his head, and my impression was that it was verbal stuff...words, you know. And that is not utterly surprising considering that he is (was, is he still around?) a writer, and with a hell of a reputation. A lot of people I have met think that thinking is impossible to dissociate from words, but I disagree, and I believe that my disagreement is proof of the veracity of my position. I think that words serve thought but that thought has a life that preceeds words.=20 Stoping your mind and stuff in it has been a preoccupation of a lot of people for millennia and Zen and I am sure a lot of other thought/spiritual cultures address this. There are so many ways that people have approached and solved this sort of thing. Recently I have had some experiences where my mind has cleared and I am left with just the present and something like a clean slate mentally. There are many tricks...drugs, meditation, sleeping for a few days (Yes! Henry Miller wrote of this method, well known to the ancients, as he put it), going out in the desert. Discipline helps here. I like some of the books by Alan Watts, e.g. The Book. The last thing you said about more noise and experts to drown out the noise in your head I think you know the answer to well enough. You have clearly made a decision that you don't need all that noise and you know that it would only make things worse. What you are looking for is a way to clarify your mind, a way to focus, somehow eliminate the "noise". Maybe you can find a progressive solution which may prove more solid and lasting than something that is too quick and transitory in nature. To change the subject, my position in RNWK proved foolish like all my other speculative ventures of the last 3 weeks or so. I bailed yesterday when it was a bit over 74. It recovered $2 later in the day, and it's par for my course lately. I'm on a losing streak and I think the only thing to do now is stay in cash a while, perhaps taking up the short side if I feel inspired that I have a good candidate. Presently, I have no ideas and don't know that I will find the time to pursue the idea, at least not right away. Meantime, I'm still doing very well for the year, and I will try to stop the bleeding. Dan - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] The vulture who wore a toupe. [Connie Mack] Date: 31 Jul 1999 14:36:39 -0400 A vulture with a naked head usually works inside the carcass. The vulture with the feathered head usually works outside. Starting a comment with such an ugly image is a bit untoward, like starting the first sentence of a position paper with parentheses or brackets. The trader as vulture is not an infrequent metaphor. Do the images refer to two kinds of traders or do the two images show two approaches to the market? Arbitrarily, let's say the image, and also the metaphor, show two approaches to the market (or to stock buying and selling): the trader and the investor. I'll be the feather-headed vulture, not because I do have hair but because I work "outside" the market. I am largely indifferent as to whether a stock makes gadgets or sells services. In a sense, I trade on pretty faces (and pretty EMAs, pretty MACDs, and pretty charts). I said last week that I owned WIT, WCS, FSR, and FHS. I could not tell you the names of the companies or what any did. I admit to being about as "shallow" a trader as you'll find. (And those four pretty faces were not so pretty in retrospect--and cost me some money our divorce.) If I'm the feather-headed vulture, then the investor must be the bald-headed. The bald-headed vulture works on stock and market internals, works inside the carcass. Every metaphor, pushed to its margins, fails, for if it didn't the two things compared would be identical. Therefore, I won't reach for the metaphor "market compared to carcass," for markets never die, though they may spend time in the ER. To the metaphor. For me the only reason for trading is to make money. That I like the excitement of trading several times a day (but there are days I don't trade) is not denied. Where else can you massage so much money in five minutes or five days and not have to make a bent-knee overture to the bank? A few members have posted about investments that have not worked out. Many more have told me about similar losses. What most have wanted was an explanation of where they had erred. Because they were bald-headed vultures, I knew little about the acronymic meaning of CANSLIM, about the internals of stocks and markets. What I have told them and have posted is what I know about feather-headed vultures, about the externals of stocks and markets. E.g., they ask: How do I know when to let a stock go or when to buy? When to enter the market, when to exit? This is how I decide. Pull up BigCharts and the chart for INDU; and select a 1-month chart with MACD. Insert the 3/7/10 EMA. Could there be more clarity in what is happening to the INDU? On July 16 there was a hint at the Doubling Principle; the action of the 16th said to be alert. At the end of trading on the 19th, you had a First Level Sell with a descending 3 EMA that implied a Second Level. By the next morning, the Second Level Sell was given. The Third Level Sell came the morning of the 22nd. The MACD implied a crossover sell on the 19th and fulfilled the sell on the morning of the 20th. The 3/7/10 showed an enormous separating diversion on the 21st. The alert was underway and continued through trading on the 26th, which concluded with a tripling spike. The next two days rose as implied by the spike, but the 3/7/10 didn't give any buy signal. On the 28th it turned back down and implies further separation of the 3 and 7 EMAs. The MACD is at least two days away from a crossover below the trigger line. Now would be the time to superimpose your stocks on this chart or the NASDAQ's. What would be ideal for the trader and the investor would be to own only surrogate stocks. You would do with your stocks what the index said. In this instance, get out. Say that you've a good profit in a stock. The EMA has given you a warning. I'm guessing, but my guess would be that several members have lost in these last few days all the profits of several weeks. If your rule is not to turn an intended long term position (but not yet long term) into a factual short position by selling, then you shouldn't even be looking at technical indicators. Why make yourself sick with worry by seeing profits erode day by day? Because the internals (Canslim criteria) of your stock have not changed ought not to mean that you sit through a collapse of your stock (or the market). So what, if your stock recovers all your profits six months later. For six months you played catch up. Rather, suppose you let your position go using the 3/7/10 EMA and the MACD (use more than one) and then bought back in using the same indicators. You've re-established your position with a greater worth. For a trader, or an investor, the most difficult transaction is to re-buy a stock just let go. But that is exactly what a trader does. It is what I do when I trade DELL. An investor ought to abide by the same principle, but probably using indicators with decelerated mph. In other words, the bald-headed vulture ought to wear a toupee. We do, sometimes, welcome biddable children. But biddable investors? The market acts as if trader and investor incompetence is an oversight that no one is obliged to correct and that all must suffer through. A student may see himself as marginally competent and think of his degree as an heraldic validation of an otherwise unheroic education. If a trader or investor so thinks of himself, the market will give him an education that is not only indelibly unheroic but outrageously expensive. Connie Mack - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walt Nusbaum Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dan the Man!! Date: 31 Jul 1999 15:04:14 -0500 Jeff, Dan, Dan Musicant wrote: > > On Fri, 30 Jul 1999 18:02:15 -0400, you wrote: > > :> Who's stories? Well, I've been watching NBR -- the Nightly Business > :> Report on PBS, where they parade one or two *experts* by you each night > :> M-F. I kind of lost my touch... By and large I think I've benefited > :> from watching the program. > : (Snip) :But, *STILL*, there is noise. Mostly in my head. I can't figure out > :how to turn it off short of some stint like a Nicolas Darvas telegram > :existence from a remote Bahamian cay. > : > :Maybe what I need is more news and experts to drown out the noise in my > :head. What do you advise? Jeff, You might try Transcendental Meditation(TM). I know it'll work for the noise. The idea is that you can not maintain two distinct thoughts in your mind simultaneously. This technique cost me 85 bucks in the mid-'70's, but it's your's free. The drill is to fill your mind with a meaningless sound(your mantra). The one I was given by my instructor was "kirin". However, I changed that to "aum"(Owmm), which is a classic sound.(Kirin is the name of a Japanese beer, and was not meaningless to me). Make up your own sound, or use "aum". Two, twenty minute sessions each day is recommended. Sit in a comfortable chair in a reasonably quiet spot. Relax as much as possible, and try not to think of anything. Of course, at this time that is not possible. As soon as a thought/noise begins, call up your mantra. Repeat it *mentally* 5-10 times with each sound separated by 1-2 seconds. Then stop. You will experience a brief interlude of silence before the noise starts again all over again. When it does start, call up your mantra as above and repeat the exercize. Soon, your mind will remain blank for (say) ten seconds. You may then reduce the number of mantra repetitions to 5-6, and eventually and ideally to zero. You will be able to just sit down and clear your mind at will. This will not take that much time, either. In a few days you will note good progress, and within a month or so may be be able to discard the mantra. Good luck! (Snip) Dan wrote: >I'm on a losing streak and I think the only > thing to do now is stay in cash a while, perhaps taking up the short > side if I feel inspired that I have a good candidate. Presently, I have > no ideas and don't know that I will find the time to pursue the idea, at > least not right away. Meantime, I'm still doing very well for the year, > and I will try to stop the bleeding. > > Dan Dan, FWIW. From "The Big Picture", Friday, July 30, "Failed breakouts are common when the market is struggling, which is why it's a good idea to hold off making new buys until the general averages find support and turn up". Best wishes, Walt - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Lynch" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Market - A NonManslic Perspective on M Date: 01 Aug 1999 12:47:31 +1200 Johan, I'm reminded of all the wise comments about not predicting the market. Its kinda interesting to look at last weeks projections now! We moved out of sideways on Tuesday/Wednesday but straight back into down on Thursday/Friday :-( My holdings held up reasonably well and about half rose during the week so I've just finished tightening a few stops. Unfortunately I'm quite unclear about the immediate future (crystal ball seems to be fogging). - Drawing a trend lines under the recent lows from 20 April suggests support around 10,500 which is a day or two away. DJT support is at 3320 which it'll hit Monday at current decline rates. NASDAQ has a lot further to go for this support but is sitting on its 50 day EMA right now. - Looking for support lines suggests 10,400 for DJI, 3300 for DJT, right about here for the NASDAQ. - W%R indicates all are very oversold. So my expectation is for the markets to rise Monday because of the oversold state (all closes were harder down than last friday; more like monday). I am beginning to suspect, though, that fear will drive it down again after Monday. My concern is fear ... there still seem to be people willing to sell at lower prices and if we drop much more, panic leads to more selling. I'll be watching the support lines this week and if we go through them I'll drop the rest of my portfolio and wait for clear evidence that we've bottomed. Regards, John -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Johan Van Houtven Sent: Friday, 30 July 1999 20:28 John wrote: >1) My current prognosis (70% chance vs down from here) is: > >- We're still oversold so should bounce back. Mr Greenspans comments cooled >everyone off but sometime between Monday and Wednesday we will move out of >down/sideways mode and we will begin the next upwards leg similar to >March-June this year on the DJI. >- When we hit the recent highs we will either go through them with good >volume or bounce back for a couple of days before continuing up. Intuitively >I feel that we will bounce down because so many are nervous but >"psychological" technical theory suggests that the most nervous may have >been shaken out on Thursday and Friday, which will lead to a quicker rise. >The number of stops taken out late last week would also help create a clean >rise as these people start to buy back in to their stocks. >- When we go through last weeks highs the technical reading seems to be a >fairly clean rise to about 12,200. The basis for this view is that the >consolidation in June-July at 10,700 could be considered to be as the mid >point for an interrupted rise from 9,200 in January. Another view is that >15%-20% is around the average rise for any intermediate leg of a bull market >and this would put the average at 12,300-12,800. > >Once we get to the top, some people are suggesting that we have topped the >bull market and Y2K nervousness will trigger the next bear market so I'll be >increasingly in cash around this time. > >2) My 30% prognosis is that we go down from here. This seems less likely >because the normal indicators people use to pick market failure like the >NYSE breadth indicators and VIX don't seem to be in "crash mode". > >Sorry that I cant provide any certainty :-) I've got stops under the next >resistance level for everything I currently own and when I wake up tomorrow >morning (7am in New Zealand is 3pm Wall St Time) I'll be very interested to >see how I performed. How are things going? How do you see things now? -- Johan - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Lynch" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Starter Kit Date: 01 Aug 1999 13:04:55 +1200 Pinakin, As a Kiwi trading in the US (sometimes CANSLIM, more technical at present) I recommend using a broker like DATEK (my choice) or ETRADE who supports Internet trading. Sign on to DATEK online and print out the various forms. Mail these (including the W-8 form which lets the US Tax Department know where you'll be paying tax) to Datek. Then either wire or mail a check to Datek. At that point you can start trading. Regards, John -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Patrick Wahl Sent: Saturday, 31 July 1999 16:21 > I am slightly confused, it seems to me that some of you are day trading but I dont see how canslim techniques can be of any help here? Again I would be interested to find out what sort of tools you would require for this sort of trading! There is a small but voluble group of daytraders on the list, and it really does not have anything to do with CANSLIM. You should be aware that if you decide to follow this discussion it is a completely different discipline. Don't know how to help a UK guy with a broker questions. Only thought is to find a broker that allows you to place orders both via phone and over the internet, you can then dump orders in at night on the internet, or adjust stops and so on at home after doing your analysis. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Dan the Man!! Date: 01 Aug 1999 04:30:45 GMT On Sat, 31 Jul 1999 15:04:14 -0500, you wrote: :Jeff, Dan, : :Dan Musicant wrote: :>=20 :> On Fri, 30 Jul 1999 18:02:15 -0400, you wrote: :>=20 :> :> Who's stories? Well, I've been watching NBR -- the Nightly Business :> :> Report on PBS, where they parade one or two *experts* by you each = night :> :> M-F. I kind of lost my touch... By and large I think I've = benefited :> :> from watching the program. :> : :(Snip) : : :But, *STILL*, there is noise. Mostly in my head. I can't figure out :> :how to turn it off short of some stint like a Nicolas Darvas telegram :> :existence from a remote Bahamian cay. :> : :> :Maybe what I need is more news and experts to drown out the noise in = my :> :head. What do you advise? : :Jeff, :You might try Transcendental Meditation(TM). I know it'll work for the :noise. The idea is that you can not maintain two distinct thoughts in :your mind simultaneously. This technique cost me 85 bucks in the :mid-'70's, but it's your's free. : :The drill is to fill your mind with a meaningless sound(your mantra). :The one I was given by my instructor was "kirin". However, I changed :that to "aum"(Owmm), which is a classic sound.(Kirin is the name of a :Japanese beer, and was not meaningless to me). Make up your own sound, :or use "aum". : :Two, twenty minute sessions each day is recommended. Sit in a :comfortable chair in a reasonably quiet spot. Relax as much as possible, :and try not to think of anything. Of course, at this time that is not :possible.=20 : :As soon as a thought/noise begins, call up your mantra. Repeat :it *mentally* 5-10 times with each sound separated by 1-2 seconds. Then :stop. You will experience a brief interlude of silence before the noise :starts again all over again. : :When it does start, call up your mantra as above and repeat the :exercize. Soon, your mind will remain blank for (say) ten seconds. You :may then reduce the number of mantra repetitions to 5-6, and eventually :and ideally to zero. You will be able to just sit down and clear your :mind at will. This will not take that much time, either. In a few days :you will note good progress, and within a month or so may be be able to :discard the mantra. Good luck! : :(Snip) : :Dan wrote: :>I'm on a losing streak and I think the only :> thing to do now is stay in cash a while, perhaps taking up the short :> side if I feel inspired that I have a good candidate. Presently, I = have :> no ideas and don't know that I will find the time to pursue the idea, = at :> least not right away. Meantime, I'm still doing very well for the = year, :> and I will try to stop the bleeding. :>=20 :> Dan :=20 :Dan, :FWIW. From "The Big Picture", Friday, July 30, "Failed breakouts are :common when the market is struggling, which is why it's a good idea to :hold off making new buys until the general averages find support and :turn up".=20 :Best wishes, :Walt Yes. And I believe Jeffry would agree. It is best to wait until *confirmation* that the market has turned. What I have been experiencing is what I get for being too impatient. I have found that my losses have been the most stunning when I have been in too big a hurry to make up for recent losses. That's when I seem to leave myself open for real damage...and I do mean real. Good thing I'm not a prize fighter or I would have been knocked out cold the last few weeks because my opponent had jabbed me in the nose, and I wanted a quick revenge. Gotta be smarter than that! Thanks for the detailed and explicit explanations of TM techniques. I don't know if Jeffry will try them/get into them, but I will snip your remarks, study them and try to make use of them/check them out. I have engaged in my own version of TM for many years, but it may be a good idea to formalize the process sometimes...especially if you have clear trouble clearing your mind sometimes. Dan -