From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Russell 2000 Date: 01 Mar 2000 05:52:36 -0500 The nearly 3.6% gain today is the largest one day gain I can recall this low profile index ever making. Any comments from members? Note: I have already shifted my 401 investments away from the big caps into a mixture of cash, mid and small caps, while my IRA remains all small and micro caps, so my bias is obvious. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription Date: 01 Mar 2000 08:00:01 -0700 This is a twice monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are three remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group. 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. Or, 3) You can setup customized filters on your own mail client to sort the incoming canslim messages to its own folder. If you wish to modify your canslim subscription, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@lists.xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Russell 2000 Date: 01 Mar 2000 07:07:43 -0800 I had the largest one-day gain I have ever had. Since I closely mirror the RUT (I have 4 of those "small" caps that are driving the RUT) I'd say it was a fair shot at the best day since spring of 97 anyway. However Tom I take that post last week seriously, I too think these newly mid-to-large caps are driving the RUT and when they are dropped the index may also drop. I see true small cap (< 1 billion) breakouts these days at a decent rate but nothing like summer 97 when the RUT was screaming (didn't it put on 30% in a couple or three weeks at one point?) and I was in ALL small caps and screaming as well. At 05:52 AM 3/1/00 -0500, you wrote: >The nearly 3.6% gain today is the largest one day gain I can >recall this low profile index ever making. Any comments from >members? > >Note: I have already shifted my 401 investments away from >the big caps into a mixture of cash, mid and small caps, >while my IRA remains all small and micro caps, so my bias is >obvious. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Russell 2000 Date: 01 Mar 2000 10:25:10 -0500 True, but the Russell won't be adjusted until next June. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, March 01, 2000 10:07 AM I had the largest one-day gain I have ever had. Since I closely mirror the RUT (I have 4 of those "small" caps that are driving the RUT) I'd say it was a fair shot at the best day since spring of 97 anyway. However Tom I take that post last week seriously, I too think these newly mid-to-large caps are driving the RUT and when they are dropped the index may also drop. I see true small cap (< 1 billion) breakouts these days at a decent rate but nothing like summer 97 when the RUT was screaming (didn't it put on 30% in a couple or three weeks at one point?) and I was in ALL small caps and screaming as well. At 05:52 AM 3/1/00 -0500, you wrote: >The nearly 3.6% gain today is the largest one day gain I can >recall this low profile index ever making. Any comments from >members? > >Note: I have already shifted my 401 investments away from >the big caps into a mixture of cash, mid and small caps, >while my IRA remains all small and micro caps, so my bias is >obvious. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Russell 2000 Date: 01 Mar 2000 08:50:25 -0800 Tom, I knew that, just wanted to point out that the highest flyers will be dumped from the index once it rebalances. Here's a micro-cap screen for someone to try from MSN. http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/supermodels/892675.html He also has several other model portfolios with overwhelmingly CANSLIM/HGS stocks. Interesting reading. Apparently they are all available as screens on MSN Money Central (pay site; was $9.95/mo last time I looked). >To find these names using the Investment Finder stock-screening engine at >MSN MoneyCentral, I have created the Mighty Micro-Cap Checklist from the >following criteria: > > Company Basics / Market capitalization < > $500 million. > This seeks the market's smallest stocks. > Advisor FYI / SEC Filings / Beneficial > Ownership Taken > "since" in the Past Month. This seeks > companies that > recently have been the subject of a > federal regulatory filing > that disclosed a 1% to 5% or greater > stake held by either > a fund manager, a corporation or an > individual. > Company Basics / Shares outstanding < 25 > million. This > excludes penny stocks that have issued > hundreds of > millions of shares. > Stock Price History / Previous day's > closing price > $2. > Ditto. You want to wait until stocks have > climbed at least > above the $2 level. > Trading & Volume / Avg. Daily Vol. Last 2 > Weeks > Avg. > Daily Vol. Last Qtr. This seeks stocks > that are the subject > of an increased amount of trading -- > volume is the fuel of > advances. > Stock Price History / % Chg. YTD > 50%. > This excludes > stocks that aren't participating in the > rally for micro-caps > this year. > Stock Price History / % Chg. Last 6 > Months "high as > possible." This ranks your final list by > the companies that > have performed the best during the time > that the broad > market has faltered. On 07:25 AM 3/1/00 , Tom Worley Said: >True, but the Russell won't be adjusted until next June. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Tim Fisher >To: >Sent: Wednesday, March 01, 2000 10:07 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Russell 2000 > > >I had the largest one-day gain I have ever had. Since I >closely mirror the >RUT (I have 4 of those "small" caps that are driving the >RUT) I'd say it >was a fair shot at the best day since spring of 97 anyway. >However Tom I >take that post last week seriously, I too think these newly >mid-to-large >caps are driving the RUT and when they are dropped the index >may also drop. >I see true small cap (< 1 billion) breakouts these days at a >decent rate >but nothing like summer 97 when the RUT was screaming >(didn't it put on 30% >in a couple or three weeks at one point?) and I was in ALL >small caps and >screaming as well. > >At 05:52 AM 3/1/00 -0500, you wrote: > >The nearly 3.6% gain today is the largest one day gain I >can > >recall this low profile index ever making. Any comments >from > >members? > > > >Note: I have already shifted my 401 investments away from > >the big caps into a mixture of cash, mid and small caps, > >while my IRA remains all small and micro caps, so my bias >is > >obvious. > > > >Tom Worley > >stkguru@netside.net > >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > >Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists >Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >PFB Information >mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > >- > > > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dave Rubin" Subject: [CANSLIM] IKOS Date: 01 Mar 2000 12:04:09 -0500 IKOS appears to be breaking out of a cup-handle today. Company fundamentals seem strong enough to warrant CANSLIM status, or at least it is close. Opinions anyone? -- Dave - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Alexander T Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: IKOS Date: 01 Mar 2000 12:23:46 -0500 (EST) If you look at the pattern for a longer time period, it actually looks like the recent 4 weeks of activity is either a handle that is almost deep, or a "base-on-top-of-a-base" formation, if you think that the later base is too long for a cup. In my opinion the price is still too low, and volume action is very week to call it a "true" breakout. Another concern, as has been voiced before, is that a stock that is showing a nice long base right now may not be classified as a leader in its industry, since some industries (COMPUTERS, BIOTECH, etc. ) have been very strong lately. Unfortunately, I am not very good at analyzing flags. I am new to canslim (coming from value), so I am trying to stick to CANSLIM's purest form. Because most true CANSLIM stocks I've been looking at so far are extended from october-november bases, and as I said, I am not good at flags, my canslim $$$ are still in cash... I just wanted to say that for a canslim beginner, I found this list to be the best resource yet ! Thanks! ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com?sr=mc.mk.mcm.tag001 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Matt Robinson" Subject: [CANSLIM] Picks? Date: 01 Mar 2000 11:00:14 -0500 I am interested in what everyone is watching/buying these days. Personally, I prefer to find the small cap, huge growth, and a not so high valuation (yet). Most of the stocks I have been watching/own have past entry points (or at least for now). Stocks that are close to fitting my preferences that I recently happened upon: AMK SPEC KILN missed QUIK Was looking to get into NITE when it was down, but liked my money better in the small caps, which has payed off, but I am not sure I want in right now, here. As far as the financials go (or those that are correlated both fundamentally and technically), I was also considering some MWD. Another thing I have been watching, despite rising rates, when would one step in and buy retail stocks, as they continue to drop. Possibly, WMT or ANF. ANF is trading at a 10 PE. Me, I am not going to be one to try to catch a falling knife, but one has to think that as soon as these things look to be their worst with no rebound in site, that is when things change. Just some thoughts. Let me know what you guys are looking at / own. Hmmmm, as I look up, I see that the DOW is now down for the day. DOW recovery could have just been a bounce, although I think and hope not, only to conitinue its drop. Could this divergence continue to widen much more? Matt __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke Lang Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IKOS Date: 01 Mar 2000 22:10:04 -0800 (PST) Dave, I think IKOS as part of the electronic design automation group. The leaders of that group, SNPS and CDN, don't look too hot. I really don't know much about IKOS itself. Luke Lang --- Dave Rubin wrote: > IKOS appears to be breaking out of a cup-handle > today. > > Company fundamentals seem strong enough to warrant > CANSLIM status, or at > least it is close. Opinions anyone? > > -- > Dave > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fwd: Good call Tim Date: 02 Mar 2000 06:45:14 -0800 I missed it by 4 pts. & one day. Just wanted to let you know that Ian Woodward's High Jump Method for forecasting potential index performance either is voodoo magick or I got lucky. Anyway this was from another list. And my prediction wasn't the high target. Gotta dig it up to find that number. And the method doesn't forecast a time to achieve the target. I did a linear regression on the current trend in the NASDAQ for grins. -----Original Message----- >From: Tim Fisher [mailto:tim@orerockon.com] >Sent: Thursday, February 24, 2000 2:19 PM >To: AAIC@topica.com >Subject: Re: update > > >I'll put in my prediction of 4780 by Feb 29. Take a look at Ian >Woodward's HGS message boards for a real technical method of putting >targets on the NASDAQ. It's torturous but it works. I did it last weekend >and came up with that number. Much higher than that & we're due for another >"V" style mini-correction. > >On 10:42 AM 2/24/00 , Randy Barnes Said: > > > >THe DOw will hold 10,000 and when it does the rally starts all over again. > >NASDAQ 5000 by Feb 29. Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Sending large files to the canslim group Date: 02 Mar 2000 08:00:01 -0700 Everyone, There are times when you may wish to share large files with our group (i.e. gif, jpeg, spreadsheets, etc). Our list is configured to reject large postings (even if they are properly encoded) since the sheer volume has caused problems in the past. As an alternative, we have provided an anonymous ftp site. To provide your file to the group, please follow these instructions: 1. Send your file to: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ If you need some help doing this step, there are ftp instructions below. 2. Send mail to me directly at "owner-canslim@xmission.com" telling me the name of the file that you uploaded. I will move the file from the incoming directory, to the canslim directory where people will be able to download your file. 3. After I notify you that the file has been moved to the canslim directory, you should send an email to the canslim group describing your file, and its URL (i.e. ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/GreatBoom.gif). Although this may seem unwieldy at first, it really isn't too bad and it solves more problems than it creates. You should note that I do not monitor my email on the weekends as closely as during the week. Therefore, steps 2-3 may take longer over a weekend. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury =========================================================================== FTP Instructions: 1. Using Netscape, go to the URL: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ 2. On the Netscape "File" menu, select "Upload File..." This will open a file selection widget on your hard-drive. Select the file you wish to upload and hit the "Ok" button. At this point, your file will be uploaded. 3. Eventhough your file has been uploaded, you will not be able to see the file in your netscape browser. The reason for this is that the "incoming" directory is set to write-only for security reasons. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: [CANSLIM] SCH B/O Date: 02 Mar 2000 12:38:15 -0700 SCH was in a downtrend for about 6 months from last April thru October. Then there was a relatively flat base for the past 3 months (range between $32-42) with the range tightening the past month or so. Yesterday there was a B/O from this base on good volume +114% ADV (per IBD). I calculate the pivot to be 42 1/8. Trading currently at around $44 puts it within the 5% above pivot range. The IBD numbers are 96 62 BAA ...Group strength has been rising strongly from 92 six months ago to 61 last week to 49 this week. Based on the above, I've just made a purchase @ 44 1/8. I would appreciate comments from the group...Thanks Ziggy - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SCH B/O Date: 02 Mar 2000 13:18:35 -0800 Breakout to what? The high is 77-1/2. I agree this may be a valid short term technical trade (since it broke through the 200dma) but what has it got to do with chart formations ala WON? Also, this is a turnaround stock ala HGS and not really CANSLIM (IMO). On 11:38 AM 3/2/00 , wroblewski@uswest.net Said: >SCH was in a downtrend for about 6 months from last April >thru October. Then there was a relatively flat base for the >past 3 months (range between $32-42) with the range >tightening the past month or so. Yesterday there was a B/O >from this base on good volume +114% ADV (per IBD). I >calculate the pivot to be 42 1/8. Trading currently at >around $44 puts it within the 5% above pivot range. > >The IBD numbers are 96 62 BAA ...Group strength has been >rising strongly from 92 six months ago to 61 last week to 49 >this week. > >Based on the above, I've just made a purchase @ 44 1/8. > >I would appreciate comments from the group...Thanks > >Ziggy > > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SCH B/O Date: 02 Mar 2000 16:45:03 -0700 Thanks for your response Tim. I will try to explain my thinking on this one...I admit I try to over analyze things at times in my efforts to get in early on B/O's, but here goes. The old high of 77 1/2 was made 11 months ago...this means that in one month that high will be dropped from the 52 week high that WON uses and will be replaced by a high of around 60...one more month and the 52 week high will drop to around 55... another 2 months and the 52 week high will drop to around 46 which is where the price broke out yesterday. In other words all we need is some time (4 months) to pass and we have just broken into a new 52 week high. I see this as a flat base for the past 3+ months and a B/O from that base to a new 7 month high (not 12 months but relatively long enough for me)... by the way, the 17dma, the 50dma and the 200dma were virtually on top of each other during the entire 3+ month base which shows how flat this period was...so I don't consider this a break thru the 200dma but rather a move up away from it. I called IBD on this one and what they saw was a 3 1/2 month cup and said to wait for the handle...guess they were looking at a six month chart...soooo I guess CANSLIM is somewhat in the eyes of the beholder. I hope you see the humor in my convoluted way of thinking. Best regards, Ziggy Tim Fisher wrote: > Breakout to what? The high is 77-1/2. I agree this may be a valid short > term technical trade (since it broke through the 200dma) but what has it > got to do with chart formations ala WON? Also, this is a turnaround stock > ala HGS and not really CANSLIM (IMO). > > On 11:38 AM 3/2/00 , wroblewski@uswest.net Said: > >SCH was in a downtrend for about 6 months from last April > >thru October. Then there was a relatively flat base for the > >past 3 months (range between $32-42) with the range > >tightening the past month or so. Yesterday there was a B/O > >from this base on good volume +114% ADV (per IBD). I > >calculate the pivot to be 42 1/8. Trading currently at > >around $44 puts it within the 5% above pivot range. > > > >The IBD numbers are 96 62 BAA ...Group strength has been > >rising strongly from 92 six months ago to 61 last week to 49 > >this week. > > > >Based on the above, I've just made a purchase @ 44 1/8. > > > >I would appreciate comments from the group...Thanks > > > >Ziggy > > > > > >- > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: GOOWLS@aol.com Subject: Subject: [CANSLIM] Russell 2000 Date: 03 Mar 2000 00:11:03 EST Tom, I share the same bias toward the small caps and in January shifted my 401(K) to Franklin Small Cap (FRSGX). The Russell 2000 RS line on the IBD General Market & Sectors page is looking very strong, and the AMEX is looking strong, too. Mike Goode << Date: Wed, 1 Mar 2000 05:52:36 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Russell 2000 The nearly 3.6% gain today is the largest one day gain I can recall this low profile index ever making. Any comments from members? Note: I have already shifted my 401 investments away from the big caps into a mixture of cash, mid and small caps, while my IRA remains all small and micro caps, so my bias is obvious. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html >> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Accessing the discussion canslim archives... Date: 03 Mar 2000 08:00:00 -0700 From time to time, CANSLIM members may wish to browse the discussion archives. This posting provides instructions on how to access the archives. Thanks to David Cameron for compiling the essentials of this message. Here are the two ways to access the archives: 1. The best way is to use your web browser. To browse the archives, point your browser to: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/cgi/lwgate.cgi/CANSLIM/ You can do simple key-word searches on the archive by going to: http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/search.html 2. (Not as convenient) via email: Send an email to majordomo@xmission.com with the following as the body of your message: "index canslim". Then send a follow up email to request an old email from either the "archive" or "latest" directory. Note that your request must be in the body of your email. For example: "get canslim latest/001" will retrieve file "001" from the "latest" directory. "get canslim archive/v01.n066" will retrieve file "v01.n066" from the "archive" dir. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list owner/admin - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dave Rubin" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: IKOS Date: 03 Mar 2000 11:44:01 -0500 I think you are being alittle to strict with IKOS. I see an EPS of 76 (not so terrible), RS of 80, and AAA in the other IBD ratings. Plus the stock is making new highs and just broke out of a very nice 6-week cup-handle on over 4 times ADV. Their industry group is somewhat misleading. They are actually involved with chip simulation software, so in a way they are associated with the red-hot semiconductor sector. Since most of the mainline semi stocks are already way too extended, maybe its time for peripheral stocks like IKOS to show some leadership. I guess CANSLIM purists can always find negatives with just about any stock. But IMO this one meets enough criteria to be bought within 5% of the pivot point of 11 5/8. So I did. -- Dave - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: IKOS Date: 03 Mar 2000 11:44:53 -0800 Bottom line is it's a $10 stock and as such is going to be very volatile for a 5-8% stop. Heck the thing routinely whipsaws 10% in a trading day. That's not CANSLIM, and is why CANSLIM starts with $20 stocks. I think this part of the method is still very valid in this market. Someone I know just watched a $5 stock in a red-hot sector go to $8, thought it had been "discovered", and bot in. It's at $2.50 today (4 trading days later). Can you imagine a CANSLIM stock losing 60%+ of its value from profit taking (near as we can figure - there's no bad news, no earnings report due soon, etc.) in a couple days? That's why there is a bottom line of $20. That stock may make $8 again, but I won't even put it on a watch list until it trades over $20. On 08:44 AM 3/3/00 , Dave Rubin Said: >I think you are being alittle to strict with IKOS. > >I see an EPS of 76 (not so terrible), RS of 80, and AAA in the other IBD >ratings. Plus the stock is making new highs and just broke out of a very >nice 6-week cup-handle on over 4 times ADV. > >Their industry group is somewhat misleading. They are actually involved with >chip simulation software, so in a way they are associated with the red-hot >semiconductor sector. Since most of the mainline semi stocks are already way >too extended, maybe its time for peripheral stocks like IKOS to show some >leadership. > >I guess CANSLIM purists can always find negatives with just about any stock. >But IMO this one meets enough criteria to be bought within 5% of the pivot >point of 11 5/8. So I did. > >-- >Dave Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: IKOS Date: 04 Mar 2000 03:59:21 -0500 Tim, When was the bar raised? I thought the recommended threshold was $12.00? Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, March 03, 2000 2:44 PM Bottom line is it's a $10 stock and as such is going to be very volatile for a 5-8% stop. Heck the thing routinely whipsaws 10% in a trading day. That's not CANSLIM, and is why CANSLIM starts with $20 stocks. I think this part of the method is still very valid in this market. Someone I know just watched a $5 stock in a red-hot sector go to $8, thought it had been "discovered", and bot in. It's at $2.50 today (4 trading days later). Can you imagine a CANSLIM stock losing 60%+ of its value from profit taking (near as we can figure - there's no bad news, no earnings report due soon, etc.) in a couple days? That's why there is a bottom line of $20. That stock may make $8 again, but I won't even put it on a watch list until it trades over $20. On 08:44 AM 3/3/00 , Dave Rubin Said: >I think you are being alittle to strict with IKOS. > >I see an EPS of 76 (not so terrible), RS of 80, and AAA in the other IBD >ratings. Plus the stock is making new highs and just broke out of a very >nice 6-week cup-handle on over 4 times ADV. > >Their industry group is somewhat misleading. They are actually involved with >chip simulation software, so in a way they are associated with the red-hot >semiconductor sector. Since most of the mainline semi stocks are already way >too extended, maybe its time for peripheral stocks like IKOS to show some >leadership. > >I guess CANSLIM purists can always find negatives with just about any stock. >But IMO this one meets enough criteria to be bought within 5% of the pivot >point of 11 5/8. So I did. > >-- >Dave Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: IKOS Date: 04 Mar 2000 08:50:31 -0800 We had discussed that a while back. I set mine minimum at $20 to account for the increased volatility in all stocks since the 80's. I keep forgetting that I have deviated from HTMMIS. Sorry for the confusion. At 03:59 AM 3/4/00 -0500, you wrote: >Tim, > >When was the bar raised? I thought the recommended >threshold was $12.00? > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Tim Fisher >To: >Sent: Friday, March 03, 2000 2:44 PM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: IKOS > > >Bottom line is it's a $10 stock and as such is going to be >very volatile >for a 5-8% stop. Heck the thing routinely whipsaws 10% in a >trading day. >That's not CANSLIM, and is why CANSLIM starts with $20 >stocks. I think this >part of the method is still very valid in this market. >Someone I know just >watched a $5 stock in a red-hot sector go to $8, thought it >had been >"discovered", and bot in. It's at $2.50 today (4 trading >days later). Can >you imagine a CANSLIM stock losing 60%+ of its value from >profit taking >(near as we can figure - there's no bad news, no earnings >report due soon, >etc.) in a couple days? That's why there is a bottom line of >$20. That >stock may make $8 again, but I won't even put it on a watch >list until it >trades over $20. > >On 08:44 AM 3/3/00 , Dave Rubin Said: > >I think you are being alittle to strict with IKOS. > > > >I see an EPS of 76 (not so terrible), RS of 80, and AAA in >the other IBD > >ratings. Plus the stock is making new highs and just broke >out of a very > >nice 6-week cup-handle on over 4 times ADV. > > > >Their industry group is somewhat misleading. They are >actually involved with > >chip simulation software, so in a way they are associated >with the red-hot > >semiconductor sector. Since most of the mainline semi >stocks are already way > >too extended, maybe its time for peripheral stocks like >IKOS to show some > >leadership. > > > >I guess CANSLIM purists can always find negatives with just >about any stock. > >But IMO this one meets enough criteria to be bought within >5% of the pivot > >point of 11 5/8. So I did. > > > >-- > >Dave Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" - Some discussion, please Date: 04 Mar 2000 13:57:02 -0500 I'm having trouble getting a decent feel for what is really going on in the market trends. Here's a summary, for example, of last week's data: Financial Market Highlights: ============================ 03/03/00 02/25/00 %Change S&P 500 1,409.17 1,333.36 +5.69% Dow Jones 10,367.20 9,862.12 +5.12% NASD Comp 4,914.77 4,590.49 +7.06% Russell 2000 597.88 556.74 +7.39% SOX Index 1,211.34 1,032.02 +17.38% Value Line 408.09 394.35 +3.48% MS Growth 455.83 447.05 +1.96% MS Cyclical 479.38 469.58 +2.09% T - Bill 5.63% 5.62% +1 BP Long Bond 6.12% 6.15% -3 BP Gold - Oz-Near Month $290.30 $294.60 -$4.30 Silver - Oz-Near Month $5.15 $5.09 +$.06 Now remember, most "expert analysts" are expecting that the Feds will hike rates in this month's meeting, and likely again in May, tho each expected to be only a qtr pt. No question, Friday's Employment Report was encouraging the idea that the past hikes are starting to slow down the economic growth, but consumer confidence (and spending) remains way high, and that's two thirds of the economy. Auto and truck sales, in fact, hit new record highs. And the robust rally on Friday just fuels consumer sentiment and sense of wealth, leading to more spending. The long bond has been falling in the face of expectation of higher rates, should be the other way around. Some evidence that major manufacturing, inventory building, durable goods, etc is slowing, but there is also evidence that prices paid at the manufacturing level continue to grow at well over inflationary levels. So far, they are not able to pass that along, and must absorb it, offset by increased productivity. Meanwhile, we have the NYSE (DOW) doing the yoyo dance with NASDAQ. Seems, until the past several days, that they couldn't both be up sharply on the same day, and rarely were both down sharply on the same day either. But NASDAQ (tech stocks) are the clear winner, hitting new highs pretty regularly, while NYSE struggles to get back over 10,000. But many had a target for 2000 for Naz of 5,000, and we're already almost there. What are we going to do the rest of the year? I'm going to get bored if we go sideways for nine months, tho I seriously doubt that possibility. There appears to have been, and may still be, a lot of cash on the sidelines. I understand inflows to mutual funds last month hit a record. And the IRS is reporting that the use of online filing is resulting in refunds this year already 8% ahead of last year, wanna bet it's being spent just as fast? Then again, once spent, what happens in a month or two when there's no windfall cash coming in from IRS? So far, labor costs appear tame, especially in light of productivity gains, so the Feds can relax on that point. But everything points to continued strong, maybe even increased, consumer spending, and that spells inflationary threat, resulting in some more Fed hikes. From my perspective at work, I see substantial increases in cash going into US equities compared to a year ago and the more traditional split between fixed income and stocks. And that holds both for money coming from LATAM and Europe. The dollar remains strong against both the Euro and Yen, which should hurt exports, yet exports are growing nicely. The Yen remains relatively strong, yet Japan is in recession again, and has chosen to not fix its economic problems. Yet, the Nikkei broke over 20,000 this past week and is looking strong. The contradictions keep me from getting a clear picture on what is going on. Is money just churning back and forth between the old tired blue chips and the upstart tech stocks? Is money swarming in from outside the USA? Are people simply mortgaging the house and buying stocks in a buying frenzy? Is the churning between bonds and stocks? Can NASDAQ (and R2000, which ain't done too bad either) hold these elevated levels and consolidate into a base, or will they suddenly crash right back down. My sense is that risk is heightened right now, but that may just be a reflection of my confusion. Certainly, many corps are enjoying improved profits, my parent bank just announced a 20% bonus on the April payroll due record profits, for example (nice of them to share, US corps should follow the example), as well as upping the dividend on the stock. Course, naturally, rules being what they are, the stock price drifted lower. Just another contradiction for me. The economic outlook from here seems to be that this record economic expansion can last for several more years yet. Mr. G has been confirmed for another term, so barring a personal disaster his steady hand remains on the monetary policy, and he's done quite well so far at this. So, how about some members picking your favorite topic(s) on the issue of "M", and start a thread. Don't continue this one, it's already way too long and likely to be delayed in posting due size. But "M" is your friend, I'm just not sure which way its pointing right now. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: [CANSLIM] [CANSLIM} Markets... Date: 04 Mar 2000 16:10:33 -0800 I get the feeling that folks have just been switching between the NYSE and the NAZ. While this past several weeks my porfolio has shot up amazingely high (all techs), my value investor friends have been crying the blues about how "overpriced" the techs are and have been sitting on "safe" non performers. Now I'm hearing those same folks talking about the deals to be had on the NYSE. The ones who have been P/E watchers are now hopping into the market for "deals" on Dow component stocks and index funds. I'm getting positive feedback that folks would rather just sit in a conservavtive fund or such and wait for the market to turn up rather than go to cash. I think this could do well for us CANSLIM traders as it keeps the markets active without the fears of a giant race to cash. This is just a perception I have from looking at IBD's General Market sections and informal polling of friends. I'm also seeing mutual fund managers talk about the bargains out there. Others agree? Disagree? -Bill Triffet - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: IKOS Date: 04 Mar 2000 16:16:38 -0800 I'n "24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success", WON is mentioning $15 - $150 as the range to invest in. Perhaps in part that it's just plain hard to find a leader at $12.00 these days. (g) -Bill Triffet ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2000 12:59 AM > Tim, > > When was the bar raised? I thought the recommended > threshold was $12.00? > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: [CANSLIM] Sell on a split? Date: 04 Mar 2000 19:23:46 -0500 One of the laundry list of sell rules in HTMMIS is: Sell if a stock runs up on a stock split for one or two weeks (usuallay +25% or +30% and, in a few rare instances, +50%). If a stock's price is extended from its base and a stock split is announced, in many instances, the stock should be sold. I have seen stocks really take off on a split and others reverse, so I don't understand the rule. Can anybody offer a rationale for it? Thanks, Hugh - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: JANSI1AUG1@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. IPO's Date: 04 Mar 2000 20:42:08 EST Anyone: Does anyone know of a free website that lists IPO's (for, approximately, the last year). The server of the one I use is down (and perhaps out), so I'd like to know the address of another one. jans (jansi1aug1@aol.com) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mikelu" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Sell on a split? Date: 04 Mar 2000 17:45:32 -0800 I think the split would confirm that it's a buying climax top. Mike -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Hugh Fader Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2000 4:24 PM One of the laundry list of sell rules in HTMMIS is: Sell if a stock runs up on a stock split for one or two weeks (usuallay +25% or +30% and, in a few rare instances, +50%). If a stock's price is extended from its base and a stock split is announced, in many instances, the stock should be sold. I have seen stocks really take off on a split and others reverse, so I don't understand the rule. Can anybody offer a rationale for it? Thanks, Hugh - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mikelu" Subject: [CANSLIM] afterhours interference Date: 04 Mar 2000 17:52:14 -0800 Today, using Schwab, I was unable to move my stop on INTL to 36, because it was above the bid of 35 1/8 (ask was 39 7/8). Such large spreads have interfered with my setting stops in the recent past, so I called Schwab to ask if the reason was after hours trading. The broker said that it was, but she was able to enter my order by first adjusting the bid to what it was at the close. So, this little glitch has a workaround. She sent in a suggestion to fix this for me, but it may get fixed sooner if enough people call in to have the brokers manually enter their orders (at the web price). Mike - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Robert Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 04 Mar 2000 21:05:10 -0500 Here are this weeks Acc/Dis Numbers: Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 2/18/2000 1859 2281 1168 1131 570 59% 8% 2/22/2000 1893 2272 1157 1127 572 59% 8% 2/23/2000 1823 2230 1177 1174 613 58% 9% 2/24/2000 1771 2251 1193 1138 643 57% 9% 2/25/2000 1828 2182 1192 1169 640 57% 9% 2/28/2000 1821 2148 1168 1166 703 57% 10% 2/29/2000 1805 2137 1180 1167 716 56% 10% 3/1/2000 1818 2174 1155 1193 676 57% 10% 3/2/2000 1929 2219 1122 1169 611 59% 9% 3/3/2000 2005 2218 1102 1141 603 60% 9% 3/6/2000 2040 2179 1141 1100 619 60% 9% [PARA] Spreadsheet version Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 2/18/2000,1859,2281,1168,1131,570,59%,8%,, 2/22/2000,1893,2272,1157,1127,572,59%,8%,, 2/23/2000,1823,2230,1177,1174,613,58%,9%,, 2/24/2000,1771,2251,1193,1138,643,57%,9%,, 2/25/2000,1828,2182,1192,1169,640,57%,9%,, 2/28/2000,1821,2148,1168,1166,703,57%,10%,, 2/29/2000,1805,2137,1180,1167,716,56%,10%,, 3/1/2000,1818,2174,1155,1193,676,57%,10%,, 3/2/2000,1929,2219,1122,1169,611,59%,9%,, 3/3/2000,2005,2218,1102,1141,603,60%,9%,, 3/6/2000,2040,2179,1141,1100,619,60%,9%,, Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] M Date: 04 Mar 2000 22:44:59 -0600 Hmmm... how can one possibly add to Tom's message. I remain amazed by the NASDAQ. I've sold way too early on most of my CANSLIM stocks and ended up in cash. The difficulty with playing "true" CANSLIM is that a lot of the fastest movers have had an EPS/RS of something like 30/99. As such - they didn't make the screen. I'm one of the world's worst at picking M though, so I'll leave it at that... - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sell on a split? Date: 04 Mar 2000 23:48:49 -0500 Hi Hugh, Historically, announcement of a stock split leads to increased price leading up to the split. The mentality is that the share holders are getting something for nothing (don't try to find the logic, it isn't there). Some buying also comes in pre-split from the thinking that the stock will be cheaper post-split, and attract fresh buyers. Of course, once it splits, there is traditionally some selling pressure, as some shareholders sell the newly delivered shares. So if a stock runs up on a split announcement, there's a good chance it will drop short term once it splits. Thus, sell on the runup. If you like it long term, wait a few days to a week or so after the split shares are delivered, then buy back in. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2000 7:23 PM One of the laundry list of sell rules in HTMMIS is: Sell if a stock runs up on a stock split for one or two weeks (usuallay +25% or +30% and, in a few rare instances, +50%). If a stock's price is extended from its base and a stock split is announced, in many instances, the stock should be sold. I have seen stocks really take off on a split and others reverse, so I don't understand the rule. Can anybody offer a rationale for it? Thanks, Hugh - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Small caps Date: 05 Mar 2000 00:37:03 -0500 For those that like small caps, but are hesitant to consider them under $20, or $15, or whatever, I suggest you study the charts of TXCC and TTIL (used to be TTILF when it was on my watch list, but opened an office in the USA and changed its symbol to appear more "american"). I had both of these on my watch list, then well under $20, and missed getting onboard simply due lack of time to watch. I liked both, and would have bot them without hesitation had I had cash available at the time. I truly regret not selling something to make that cash available. But they are a good example of how a quality low priced small cap can vault into the $30-$50 price range in a short time period, and still have a reasonable market cap/revenue ratio. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OTEX Date: 05 Mar 2000 09:13:48 -0500 Hi Charlie, While it's got the internut (blind squirrel, heh, heh, pretty good) connection going for it, it does not have (as of yet) the strong revenue growth that might permit disregarding the lack of profits. EPS is only 33, so I would be careful with this sharp runup, esp since volume since then has been light. If you haven't already raised your stop, I would suggest slightly above or below 50, if it were me, probably below, maybe 48 and change or low 49 (I don't like round nrs for stops). Outside of a big gap down, this would protect profits. Of course, having been hammered recently, there's nothing wrong in just taking profits, either. With this one, I don't see a compelling reason to hold. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, February 29, 2000 3:40 PM Even a blind squerel finds a nut once in a while. I purchased this one yesterday for my CANSLIM portfolio (of 1 stock). Today the navy announced that they were going to use their system for intranet etc. I would love to take credit for this but of course I cant. I had my stop at 35. I bought at 39.75. I am thinking about raising my stop or possibly move this to a longer term portfolio. I got hammered hard some months ago and am trying to learn from the experience. Charlie - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Picks? Date: 05 Mar 2000 09:25:46 -0500 Hi Matt, I had not seen AMK before, looks interesting, tho above my price range. I already had KILN and SPEC on my watch list for some time, but haven't acted on either. I am not comfortable with the action on KILN at present. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, March 01, 2000 11:00 AM I am interested in what everyone is watching/buying these days. Personally, I prefer to find the small cap, huge growth, and a not so high valuation (yet). Most of the stocks I have been watching/own have past entry points (or at least for now). Stocks that are close to fitting my preferences that I recently happened upon: AMK SPEC KILN missed QUIK Was looking to get into NITE when it was down, but liked my money better in the small caps, which has payed off, but I am not sure I want in right now, here. As far as the financials go (or those that are correlated both fundamentally and technically), I was also considering some MWD. Another thing I have been watching, despite rising rates, when would one step in and buy retail stocks, as they continue to drop. Possibly, WMT or ANF. ANF is trading at a 10 PE. Me, I am not going to be one to try to catch a falling knife, but one has to think that as soon as these things look to be their worst with no rebound in site, that is when things change. Just some thoughts. Let me know what you guys are looking at / own. Hmmmm, as I look up, I see that the DOW is now down for the day. DOW recovery could have just been a bounce, although I think and hope not, only to conitinue its drop. Could this divergence continue to widen much more? Matt __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 05 Mar 2000 09:50:42 -0500 Just another contradiction for me, despite the stellar performance of Nasdaq last week, and even NYSE managed to gain respectfully, this list starts with only 132 stocks in the DG books. That compares to 145 the prior week, and 141 and 146 for the weeks before that. And the charts worth a second look were few and far between, I continue to shake my head at so many multi hundred mkt cap/sales ratios. If my portfolio only did 100, I could retire! Anyway, here's my margin comments from my delayed review (it's taking longer and longer to recover from my work week, but thanks to two new hires, and two addl new personnel authorizations, it will get better eventually, and I can participate more frequently): There has been some discussion recently regarding stocks that were not trending up with the market, or their group. I saw three that might warrant further investigation, having made a nice recovery from a recent selloff. They are CREE, ARMHY and LOGIY. In all three cases I noticed that the "recovery" volume was light, suggesting that the profit taking is over, and that there is only limited overhead resistance. AMCC and NTAP look to be consolidating recent gains. For the following, my shorthand: "B" means base, # following indicates nr of weeks QLGC - B1 PWAV - B1 CLFY - B4 CTXS - B1 ORCL - B1 ADI - B1 SYMC - B1 PRLX - B3 SUNW - B3, volume down VARI - B3 ADTN - B1 ADCT - B2 AVRT - failed breakout, B1 DYN, IVGN - nice recovery on volume AMAT - B1 ESIO - B1 QSFT - double bottom completed, secondary offering pending QRSI - breakout from a deep cup and handle Enjoy, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter D. Christiansen" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Picks? Date: 05 Mar 2000 21:56:09 +0700 Hi Tom, I'm curious what your aversion is to high priced stocks. I bought an odd lot of ARBA on 2/11. It is up over 57% in less than a month. I tend to think that the share price is irrelevant, except that you are more likely to get stopped out of a low priced issue. PDC Tom Worley wrote: > Hi Matt, > > I had not seen AMK before, looks interesting, tho above my > price range. I already had KILN and SPEC on my watch list > for some time, but haven't acted on either. I am not > comfortable with the action on KILN at present. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > -- Peter D Christiansen Chiang Mai, Thailand <*> "No man can have a right to impose an unchosen obligation, an unrewarded duty or an involuntary servitude on another man. There can be no such thing as the right to enslave." -- "Man's Rights," The Virtue of Selfishness <*> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Matt Robinson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Picks? Date: 05 Mar 2000 10:29:08 -0500 Well, I would say that ARBA is a completely different case than AMK. Someone would buy ARBA for reasons other than those for which they would buy AMK. I would consider the reasons for purchasing AMK a bit more CANSLIM-esque. But, I too wonder about your aversion to higher share price. I, personally don't like to limit myself that much by low share price. However, I do find that a lower price is better, as smaller point moves result in larger percentage moves, which usually result when the stock advances. I definitely don't like the current action in KILN. I think I am still going to watch it though. What are some other stocks you are watching? I was trying to get suggestions/ideas because a collaborative watch list could help (everyone I would imagine, but at least me personally) as it is hard to "know" about every stock. Matt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, March 05, 2000 9:56 AM > Hi Tom, > > I'm curious what your aversion is to high priced stocks. I bought an > odd lot of ARBA on 2/11. It is up over 57% in less than a month. I > tend to think that the share price is irrelevant, except that you are > more likely to get stopped out of a low priced issue. > > PDC > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > Hi Matt, > > > > I had not seen AMK before, looks interesting, tho above my > > price range. I already had KILN and SPEC on my watch list > > for some time, but haven't acted on either. I am not > > comfortable with the action on KILN at present. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > -- > Peter D Christiansen > Chiang Mai, > Thailand > > <*> "No man can have a right to impose an unchosen obligation, an > unrewarded duty or an involuntary servitude on another man. There can be > no such thing as the right to enslave." -- "Man's Rights," The Virtue of > Selfishness <*> > > > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Picks? Date: 05 Mar 2000 08:47:26 -0700 Current stocks on my "most likely to buy" list: ADCT CY CYMI DIIG ESIO LRCX LTRE NSOL PWR SMTC ZOLL These stocks have several fundamental characteristics in common that I look for..... but may not be at a proper buy point right now (you need to determine the buy point based on whatever technical trigger you typically rely on). - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Makara Tamás" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: "M" - Some discussion, please Date: 05 Mar 2000 16:56:41 +0100 Just two thoughts. Friday we had a follow through day in the Dow Industrials on increased volume (there was no increase however in NYSE volume). Since the divergence between the NASDAQ an NYSE was a concern to me, I regard this an important positive. And something less relevant: The VIX is at such a low level (i.e. it reflects extreme optimism) that has always been followed by pullbacks in the last months. Regards, Tamas > From: "Tom Worley" > Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" - Some discussion, please > Date: 04 Mar 2000 13:57:02 -0500 > > I'm having trouble getting a decent feel for what is really > going on in the market trends. Here's a summary, for > example, of last week's data: > > Financial Market Highlights: > ============================ > > 03/03/00 02/25/00 %Change > > S&P 500 1,409.17 1,333.36 +5.69% > Dow Jones 10,367.20 9,862.12 +5.12% > NASD Comp 4,914.77 4,590.49 +7.06% > Russell 2000 597.88 556.74 +7.39% > SOX Index 1,211.34 1,032.02 +17.38% > Value Line 408.09 394.35 +3.48% > MS Growth 455.83 447.05 +1.96% > MS Cyclical 479.38 469.58 +2.09% > T - Bill 5.63% 5.62% +1 BP > Long Bond 6.12% 6.15% -3 BP > Gold - Oz-Near Month $290.30 $294.60 -$4.30 > Silver - Oz-Near Month $5.15 $5.09 +$.06 > > Now remember, most "expert analysts" are expecting that the > Feds will hike rates in this month's meeting, and likely > again in May, tho each expected to be only a qtr pt. No > question, Friday's Employment Report was encouraging the > idea that the past hikes are starting to slow down the > economic growth, but consumer confidence (and spending) > remains way high, and that's two thirds of the economy. Auto > and truck sales, in fact, hit new record highs. And the > robust rally on Friday just fuels consumer sentiment and > sense of wealth, leading to more spending. The long bond has > been falling in the face of expectation of higher rates, > should be the other way around. Some evidence that major > manufacturing, inventory building, durable goods, etc is > slowing, but there is also evidence that prices paid at the > manufacturing level continue to grow at well over > inflationary levels. So far, they are not able to pass that > along, and must absorb it, offset by increased productivity. > > Meanwhile, we have the NYSE (DOW) doing the yoyo dance with > NASDAQ. Seems, until the past several days, that they > couldn't both be up sharply on the same day, and rarely were > both down sharply on the same day either. But NASDAQ (tech > stocks) are the clear winner, hitting new highs pretty > regularly, while NYSE struggles to get back over 10,000. But > many had a target for 2000 for Naz of 5,000, and we're > already almost there. What are we going to do the rest of > the year? I'm going to get bored if we go sideways for nine > months, tho I seriously doubt that possibility. > > There appears to have been, and may still be, a lot of cash > on the sidelines. I understand inflows to mutual funds last > month hit a record. And the IRS is reporting that the use of > online filing is resulting in refunds this year already 8% > ahead of last year, wanna bet it's being spent just as fast? > Then again, once spent, what happens in a month or two when > there's no windfall cash coming in from IRS? > > So far, labor costs appear tame, especially in light of > productivity gains, so the Feds can relax on that point. But > everything points to continued strong, maybe even increased, > consumer spending, and that spells inflationary threat, > resulting in some more Fed hikes. From my perspective at > work, I see substantial increases in cash going into US > equities compared to a year ago and the more traditional > split between fixed income and stocks. And that holds both > for money coming from LATAM and Europe. The dollar remains > strong against both the Euro and Yen, which should hurt > exports, yet exports are growing nicely. The Yen remains > relatively strong, yet Japan is in recession again, and has > chosen to not fix its economic problems. Yet, the Nikkei > broke over 20,000 this past week and is looking strong. > > The contradictions keep me from getting a clear picture on > what is going on. Is money just churning back and forth > between the old tired blue chips and the upstart tech > stocks? Is money swarming in from outside the USA? Are > people simply mortgaging the house and buying stocks in a > buying frenzy? Is the churning between bonds and stocks? Can > NASDAQ (and R2000, which ain't done too bad either) hold > these elevated levels and consolidate into a base, or will > they suddenly crash right back down. > > My sense is that risk is heightened right now, but that may > just be a reflection of my confusion. Certainly, many corps > are enjoying improved profits, my parent bank just announced > a 20% bonus on the April payroll due record profits, for > example (nice of them to share, US corps should follow the > example), as well as upping the dividend on the stock. > Course, naturally, rules being what they are, the stock > price drifted lower. Just another contradiction for me. The > economic outlook from here seems to be that this record > economic expansion can last for several more years yet. Mr. > G has been confirmed for another term, so barring a personal > disaster his steady hand remains on the monetary policy, and > he's done quite well so far at this. > > So, how about some members picking your favorite topic(s) on > the issue of "M", and start a thread. Don't continue this > one, it's already way too long and likely to be delayed in > posting due size. But "M" is your friend, I'm just not sure > which way its pointing right now. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Picks? Date: 05 Mar 2000 10:51:53 -0500 It's just that I insist on diversification; always want to buy multi hundred shares; and have limited funds to purchase. If I were to buy, say 60 shares of xyz, and it made a big move, I would either hold or sell it all. If I owned several hundred shares, I would consider selling half, and see where the stock would go in the future. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, March 05, 2000 9:56 AM Hi Tom, I'm curious what your aversion is to high priced stocks. I bought an odd lot of ARBA on 2/11. It is up over 57% in less than a month. I tend to think that the share price is irrelevant, except that you are more likely to get stopped out of a low priced issue. PDC Tom Worley wrote: > Hi Matt, > > I had not seen AMK before, looks interesting, tho above my > price range. I already had KILN and SPEC on my watch list > for some time, but haven't acted on either. I am not > comfortable with the action on KILN at present. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > -- Peter D Christiansen Chiang Mai, Thailand <*> "No man can have a right to impose an unchosen obligation, an unrewarded duty or an involuntary servitude on another man. There can be no such thing as the right to enslave." -- "Man's Rights," The Virtue of Selfishness <*> - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Picks? Date: 05 Mar 2000 11:12:07 -0500 Matt, Left on my watch list from a week ago (haven't yet had the awake time to check on last week's new highs) are the following: AIRM, AVRT, CANI, FCN, HICKA, KILN, MITK, NURM, SPEC, VLAB, WHT. I have added IKOS and VTEK this weekend. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, March 05, 2000 10:29 AM Well, I would say that ARBA is a completely different case than AMK. Someone would buy ARBA for reasons other than those for which they would buy AMK. I would consider the reasons for purchasing AMK a bit more CANSLIM-esque. But, I too wonder about your aversion to higher share price. I, personally don't like to limit myself that much by low share price. However, I do find that a lower price is better, as smaller point moves result in larger percentage moves, which usually result when the stock advances. I definitely don't like the current action in KILN. I think I am still going to watch it though. What are some other stocks you are watching? I was trying to get suggestions/ideas because a collaborative watch list could help (everyone I would imagine, but at least me personally) as it is hard to "know" about every stock. Matt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, March 05, 2000 9:56 AM > Hi Tom, > > I'm curious what your aversion is to high priced stocks. I bought an > odd lot of ARBA on 2/11. It is up over 57% in less than a month. I > tend to think that the share price is irrelevant, except that you are > more likely to get stopped out of a low priced issue. > > PDC > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > Hi Matt, > > > > I had not seen AMK before, looks interesting, tho above my > > price range. I already had KILN and SPEC on my watch list > > for some time, but haven't acted on either. I am not > > comfortable with the action on KILN at present. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > -- > Peter D Christiansen > Chiang Mai, > Thailand > > <*> "No man can have a right to impose an unchosen obligation, an > unrewarded duty or an involuntary servitude on another man. There can be > no such thing as the right to enslave." -- "Man's Rights," The Virtue of > Selfishness <*> > > > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Sell on a split? Date: 05 Mar 2000 08:50:43 -0800 IMHO that rule is another one that is outdated. Splits are irrelevant to bullish. Following that rule you would have sold almost every single one of the best performers of this bull market multiple times since they began their several thousand percent runs. You would have sold TQNT at about $10 when it ran up last July on a split, JDSU at under $100 last Nov (run up on announcement), SDLI at $75 last June & BVSN at $60 in Oct (ran up after split), etc etc ad nauseum. When a stock is on a run, splits happen to keep the price down. I would even argue that splits are one of the most bullish things that can happen to a stock. I would not follow the buy-on-the-split crowd, but if I held it I certainly wouldn't dump it just because it ran up when they announced a split. They often run up again right after the split. If a stock dips on a split announcement or a split, I would be suspicious. Now if you see a $20 stock split 20:1 (yes, this happened to a friend of mine), run away screaming. That's a pump-n-dump. At 05:45 PM 3/4/00 -0800, you wrote: >I think the split would confirm that it's a buying climax top. > >Mike > >-----Original Message----- >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Hugh Fader >Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2000 4:24 PM >To: CANSLIM Mail Group >Subject: [CANSLIM] Sell on a split? > > >One of the laundry list of sell rules in HTMMIS is: > >Sell if a stock runs up on a stock split for one or two weeks >(usuallay +25% or +30% and, in a few rare instances, +50%). If a >stock's price is extended from its base and a stock split is >announced, in many instances, the stock should be sold. > >I have seen stocks really take off on a split and others reverse, >so I don't understand the rule. Can anybody offer a rationale for >it? > >Thanks, >Hugh > > >- > > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 05 Mar 2000 08:58:42 -0800 Hmm, these are all greater than 90/90: ARMHY TLGD VOXX ADI ARMHY CHKP CLFY CREE CTXS FORTY HAUP JMED KEI MCRL MRCY NASI NTAP ORCL PLMD PMCS PWAV QLGC SDLI SEBL SNDK TLGD TQNT VOXX VTSS XETA It's hard to get a list of stocks that are going up faster than those without looking to the one-shot wonders (human genomics, fuel cells, superconductors, etc). At 10:44 PM 3/4/00 -0600, you wrote: >Hmmm... how can one possibly add to Tom's message. I remain >amazed by the NASDAQ. I've sold way too early on most of >my CANSLIM stocks and ended up in cash. The difficulty >with playing "true" CANSLIM is that a lot of the fastest >movers have had an EPS/RS of something like 30/99. As >such - they didn't make the screen. I'm one of the >world's worst at picking M though, so I'll leave it at >that... > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sell on a split? Date: 05 Mar 2000 09:09:05 -0800 While that is probably true for many stocks, see my previous examples of stocks that went on a tear (sometimes over 100%) immediately following the split. I can dig up many others, and they are all current market leaders. I can't find many charts right now of leaders that drooped after a split occurred in the past year. It is curious that cell phone makers QCOM & NOK drooped, and as you say those have turned out to be buying opportunities. P.S. I don't consider LU MSFT and INTC to be leaders (anymore). P.P.S. Looked at MOT and it hasn't split since 1994! Guess they need to have a board meeting. At 11:48 PM 3/4/00 -0500, you wrote: >Hi Hugh, > >Historically, announcement of a stock split leads to increased price >leading up to the split. The mentality is that the share holders are >getting something for nothing (don't try to find the logic, it isn't >there). Some buying also comes in pre-split from the thinking that the >stock will be cheaper post-split, and attract fresh buyers. Of course, >once it splits, there is traditionally some selling pressure, as some >shareholders sell the newly delivered shares. > >So if a stock runs up on a split announcement, there's a good chance it >will drop short term once it splits. Thus, sell on the runup. If you like >it long term, wait a few days to a week or so after the split shares are >delivered, then buy back in. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Hugh Fader >To: CANSLIM Mail Group >Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2000 7:23 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Sell on a split? > > >One of the laundry list of sell rules in HTMMIS is: > >Sell if a stock runs up on a stock split for one or two weeks (usuallay >+25% or +30% and, in a few rare instances, +50%). If a stock's price is >extended from its base and a stock split is announced, in many instances, >the stock should be sold. > >I have seen stocks really take off on a split and others reverse, so I >don't understand the rule. Can anybody offer a rationale for it? > >Thanks, >Hugh Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] OTEX Date: 05 Mar 2000 09:15:50 -0800 You reminded me, Herb Greenburg (the resident TSC bear) has been bashing on OTEX for a long time. Just something to consider. He bashed ACTN down to $8 from $40. SFP to no avail. CREE from $50 - $200 (whoops!) Those are (or were, sometimes he is right on the money!) all CANSLIM. At 09:13 AM 3/5/00 -0500, you wrote: >Hi Charlie, > >While it's got the internut (blind squirrel, heh, heh, >pretty good) connection going for it, it does not have (as >of yet) the strong revenue growth that might permit >disregarding the lack of profits. EPS is only 33, so I would >be careful with this sharp runup, esp since volume since >then has been light. If you haven't already raised your >stop, I would suggest slightly above or below 50, if it were >me, probably below, maybe 48 and change or low 49 (I don't >like round nrs for stops). Outside of a big gap down, this >would protect profits. > >Of course, having been hammered recently, there's nothing >wrong in just taking profits, either. With this one, I don't >see a compelling reason to hold. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Charles Cangialosi >To: >Sent: Tuesday, February 29, 2000 3:40 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] OTEX > > > Even a blind squerel finds a nut once in a while. I >purchased this one >yesterday for my CANSLIM portfolio (of 1 stock). Today the >navy announced >that they were going to use their system for intranet etc. > I would love to take credit for this but of course I >cant. > I had my stop at 35. I bought at 39.75. I am thinking >about raising my >stop or possibly move this to a longer term portfolio. > I got hammered hard some months ago and am trying to >learn from the >experience. > >Charlie > > >- > > > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Picks? Date: 05 Mar 2000 09:27:56 -0800 I have completely abandoned price as a consideration. My three current doubles: CHKP - bot at $100 JNPR - $130 SDLI - $175 My only recent "cheap" double was VARL. And the daily swings on that one got way too wild for me. P.S. Watch the second-tier fiber optics next week. I think some of them will put on a double for the week. Their conference is this week. In particular I will be watching KEI. At 10:29 AM 3/5/00 -0500, you wrote: >Well, I would say that ARBA is a completely different case than AMK. Someone >would buy ARBA for reasons other than those for which they would buy AMK. I >would consider the reasons for purchasing AMK a bit more CANSLIM-esque. But, >I too wonder about your aversion to higher share price. I, personally don't >like to limit myself that much by low share price. However, I do find that a >lower price is better, as smaller point moves result in larger percentage >moves, which usually result when the stock advances. > >I definitely don't like the current action in KILN. I think I am still going >to watch it though. > >What are some other stocks you are watching? I was trying to get >suggestions/ideas because a collaborative watch list could help (everyone I >would imagine, but at least me personally) as it is hard to "know" about >every stock. > >Matt > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Peter D. Christiansen >To: >Sent: Sunday, March 05, 2000 9:56 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Picks? > > > > Hi Tom, > > > > I'm curious what your aversion is to high priced stocks. I bought an > > odd lot of ARBA on 2/11. It is up over 57% in less than a month. I > > tend to think that the share price is irrelevant, except that you are > > more likely to get stopped out of a low priced issue. > > > > PDC > > > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > > > Hi Matt, > > > > > > I had not seen AMK before, looks interesting, tho above my > > > price range. I already had KILN and SPEC on my watch list > > > for some time, but haven't acted on either. I am not > > > comfortable with the action on KILN at present. > > > > > > Tom Worley > > > stkguru@netside.net > > > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > > > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > > > > -- > > Peter D Christiansen > > Chiang Mai, > > Thailand > > > > <*> "No man can have a right to impose an unchosen obligation, an > > unrewarded duty or an involuntary servitude on another man. There can be > > no such thing as the right to enslave." -- "Man's Rights," The Virtue of > > Selfishness <*> > > > > > > > > - > > > > > >__________________________________________________ > >Do You Yahoo!? > >Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. > >http://im.yahoo.com > > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Zoran Mitrovski" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M Date: 05 Mar 2000 12:47:03 -0500 Just read this interesting article in my Sunday NY Times. A peculiar angle. Is the bull high on Prozac? Only a critical mass of overoptimistic Prozac users would be needed to pull the momentum-inclined rest into the fray. Cheers, Zoran (of the "momentum-minded rest" and 100% in, to boot) ********************************************************************** ******************** A Psychiatric Theory on Irrational Exuberance It is a truism that the stock market is a pendulum swinging between fear and greed. But what if there is no fear because investors are chock full of Prozac or other psychoactive drugs? Perhaps stock prices and indexes like the Nasdaq composite, up 20.8 percent so far this year, could race to unprecedented valuations as investors' usual reactions to things like high price-earnings multiples and rising interesting rates are suppressed. That is the hypothesis being floated by Randolph M. Nesse, a professor of psychiatry at the University of Michigan, in a recent essay posted on a Web site called Edge, (www.edge.org). Nesse points out that prescriptions for psychoactive drugs rose to 233 million in 1998 from 131 million in 1988, with nearly 10 million filled last year for Prozac alone. Next, he considers the likelihood that a disproportionately high part of the population connected to the markets -- brokers and wealthy individuals, in particular -- are likely to be taking antidepressants. And he says he has noted that certain of his patients who take such drugs seem to worry too little about real dangers. "This is exactly the mind-set of many current investors," he said. Nesse said he did not want to belittle the positive effects that antidepressants may be having on the economy. "They are productive employees," he said of workers taking such drugs. "But if investor caution is being inhibited by psychotropic drugs, bubbles could grow larger than usual before they pop, with potentially catastrophic economic and political consequences," he said. "If chemicals are inhibiting normal caution in any substantial fraction of investors, we need to know about it." On the other hand, if a "Prozac effect" on the markets is confirmed through further research, it might not necessarily be bad news for stocks. Only one-third of the population that could benefit from antidepressants is currently taking them, according to Nesse. So, presumably, the market has room to go higher. (Full disclosure: Nesse said he was not currently invested in the market, having recently sold a position in a biotechnology stock, Affymetrix.) In any case, Nesse is adamant that government-sponsored research into the topic is necessary. But he is not sure whether it should be carried out by the Securities and Exchange Commission or the National Institutes of Mental Health. -- Richard Teitelbaum ********************************************************************** ******************* __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] OTEX Date: 05 Mar 2000 15:57:55 -0500 Tom, I did raise my stop to 48.50 on friday. I noticed the lake of volume also and it troubles me. I think the stock ran up on the Navy buying into it's system. I have to agree that taking a little profit will probably be best. I am glad that you responded. I feel a lot better about my decision now. Charlie Hi Charlie, While it's got the internut (blind squirrel, heh, heh, pretty good) connection going for it, it does not have (as of yet) the strong revenue growth that might permit disregarding the lack of profits. EPS is only 33, so I would be careful with this sharp runup, esp since volume since then has been light. If you haven't already raised your stop, I would suggest slightly above or below 50, if it were me, probably below, maybe 48 and change or low 49 (I don't like round nrs for stops). Outside of a big gap down, this would protect profits. Of course, having been hammered recently, there's nothing wrong in just taking profits, either. With this one, I don't see a compelling reason to hold. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, February 29, 2000 3:40 PM - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Chaz661@webtv.net Subject: [CANSLIM] New investors' questions Date: 05 Mar 2000 15:52:09 -0600 (CST) Hi guys! I've been following your discussions for a while now, but this is my first time to post. I have just recently started investing in the market and I have some questions that possibly someone could help me with. I have read HMMSM by WON as well as several other books by O'Neil and I am an IBD subscriber. The fundamental analysis makes a lot of sense to me but I still struggle with certain aspects. I generally scan for stocks with an eps 85 or better, RS > 85, GRS = A or B, Sales & ROE = A or B, and ACC/Dist = A or B and a price range from $20 to $150. The problem with that is that by the time a stock reaches that point it has already made a "price explosion" and I don't get in til half way through the run. Does anyone have a screen that they use to identify these stocks BEFORE they take off. Also I have been playing around with a new Web Site that has a great Tech. Analysis package that is down loadable for free. It is called www.bigeasyinvestor.com and I would highly recommend it for those who do not already have one of the more expensive packages. My final query is to solicit opinions on something that I just stumbled across while playing with bigeastinvestor. I have a watchlist of 30-40 stocks that meet CANSLIM criteria and while looking at their charts I noticed that at just about the point they increased in price at a rapid rate the 10 day MA crossed up through the 50 day MA. This was backed by the MACD crossing up through the centerline. Is there any validity to this as a buy signal or is there a better one thatI should know about. Well, sorry this is so long and thanks for any help. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mary Keener Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" - Some discussion, please Date: 05 Mar 2000 14:24:04 -0800 Tom, You wrote: The indices I follow were up for the week: GIN, NASDAQ, VLE, SPX, INDU, NDX and RUT. Advances beat declines in both NASDAQ and SPX. 1,218 more NASDAQ stocks reached new highs, with 257 additions to the SPX declines. I see the market going up for the next few months. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mary Keener Subject: [CANSLIM] Sell on a split? Date: 05 Mar 2000 14:33:08 -0800 Hugh, You wrote: My observation is that some stocks move up slightly after a split, while others go right on up and still others move downward. My rationale is based on the market, the sector and the stock. My strategy is to place tight stops after a split, and protect those delicious profits you presumably made before the split. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter D. Christiansen" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Picks? Date: 06 Mar 2000 07:47:14 +0700 Matt, The only reason I buy a stock is because I think it is going to go up. My point was that price really isn't a factor in my decision making process, other than to avoid the really cheap ones. I tend to disagree with you that lower price stocks make larger percentage moves. In my experience, all other things being equal, a $5 stock will rise $0.25 on a given day while a $60 stock goes up $3. ARBA tends to have 20 and 30 point daily moves. You also take it on the spread of lower priced issues. With my broker I can place stops on odd lots. If I want to sell just 10 of my twenty shares, that is not a problem. According to my understanding of the new amended CANSLIM rules, ARBA meets the CANSLIM selection criteria. PDC Matt Robinson wrote: > Well, I would say that ARBA is a completely different case than AMK. Someone > would buy ARBA for reasons other than those for which they would buy AMK. I > would consider the reasons for purchasing AMK a bit more CANSLIM-esque. But, > I too wonder about your aversion to higher share price. I, personally don't > like to limit myself that much by low share price. However, I do find that a > lower price is better, as smaller point moves result in larger percentage > moves, which usually result when the stock advances. > > I definitely don't like the current action in KILN. I think I am still going > to watch it though. > > What are some other stocks you are watching? I was trying to get > suggestions/ideas because a collaborative watch list could help (everyone I > would imagine, but at least me personally) as it is hard to "know" about > every stock. > > Matt -- Peter D Christiansen Chiang Mai, Thailand <*> "The end does not justify the means. No one's rights can be secured by the violation of the rights of others." -- "The Cashing-In: The Student Rebellion," Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal <*> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter D. Christiansen" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Picks? Date: 06 Mar 2000 07:49:52 +0700 > It's just that I insist on diversification; always want to > buy multi hundred shares; Why? > If I were to buy, say 60 shares of xyz, and it > made a big move, I would either hold or sell it all. Why wouldn't you sell 30 of your 60 shares? > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -- Peter D Christiansen Chiang Mai, Thailand <*> "The end does not justify the means. No one's rights can be secured by the violation of the rights of others." -- "The Cashing-In: The Student Rebellion," Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal <*> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Alexander T Subject: [CANSLIM] Cup w/o handle breakout Date: 05 Mar 2000 20:50:06 -0500 (EST) Hi, I am trying to figure out, what is the price of a buy point for breakouts from bases without handles? For bases with handles (i.e. cup or double bottom with a handle) the buy point is the high of the handle, and not the old high of the base. For bases with no handles, would it be the absolute high of the base? On another issue, WON mentions several times that short bases (less than 7 weeks) are dangerous and should be avoided. Yet in this market, it may be argued that long bases are not leaders (unless market leadership will change, and it doesn't look so now) and leading techs seem to successfully breakout of 4 week consolidations. Go figure ?! Thanks, Alex ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com?sr=mc.mk.mcm.tag001 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Alexander T Subject: [CANSLIM] PWR Date: 05 Mar 2000 21:17:23 -0500 (EST) Hi, I am somewhat confused by the weekly pattern of PWR, especially the pull back around the end of october. Without that pullback, the pattern could be a cup w/handle, where the handle is from middle of January to Feb. 2000. But considering the pullback, can we now say that this is pattern is not one of those which WON introduced in HTMMIS ? (it does not look like a double bottom either since previous low was not undercut) Thanks for your help. ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com?sr=mc.mk.mcm.tag001 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: CA011667@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PWR Date: 05 Mar 2000 22:40:37 EST Alexander, I currently own PWR buying the recent breakout at 38.As far as I am concerned,this was a nice cup/handle.I do not have the chart handy but I believe the handle was somewhere in the range off 5-7 weeks and formed above the mid-point of the cup with the handle trading between 33-38.I have waited a long time to own this stock having followed it for quite some time.The only non CS element at the time of purchase was a RS of about 70,but knowing the company pretty well I was flexible with this.Remember in this case the handle formed below the old high which was about 44.Again,these numbers are approximate as I do not have the chart in front of me.Hope this helps. Chris. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Alexander T Subject: [CANSLIM] DRAM Date: 06 Mar 2000 00:06:22 -0500 (EST) Looks like DRAM is coming very close to its pivot point from a pretty good double bottom base (decent length - not like many 4 week bases). Two weak points: * 2 weeks of volume pick up at the bottom, though it does not look very sever to me. Any comments? * IBD instituitional sponsorship is C, and a fund with biggest % position in it is Dfa 9-10 Us Small, Rank C+, 0.1%. Fundamentals look pretty good: EPS 97 RS 89 Group RS A SMR A Acc Dist D (another weak point, but this may change) - 27 % cur EPS (from MSN, sometimes different from IBD) - 38.6% annual Earnings growth 5 years - 5 year eps: -0.11, 0.13, 0.37, 0.42, 0.69 - ROE 32.4% - 8M shares out (5.9M float) - 26% MNGMT owns - No debt - 15% (20% of float) Instituitions (IBD rating C) YAHOO reported 33 inst holders Net buying prior to latest quarter + 29.31% So far there is no handle on a weekly chart, so I am perplexed as to wether consider the absolute high of the base as the buy point. I would appreciate your input on buying this if a breakout on good volume occurs. ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com?sr=mc.mk.mcm.tag001 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Steven Ross" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DRAM Date: 05 Mar 2000 22:38:00 -0700 Alexander, This is a difficult pivot point to figure out. I would not buy before clearing at least the top of the Jan 13 th peak and safer would be the top of the Feb 7th peak. I would be concerned about the larger volume during the down days Feb 23-25 and Feb 8-15 and the downward trend of the base with generally lower lows and lower highs. With the Acc/Dist rating and higher down volumes, I would be careful that this stock is not in distribution instead of basing. Steve ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, March 05, 2000 10:06 PM > Looks like DRAM is coming very close to its pivot point from a pretty good > double bottom base (decent length - not like many 4 week bases). > Two weak points: > * 2 weeks of volume pick up at the bottom, though it does not look very > sever to me. Any comments? > * IBD instituitional sponsorship is C, and a fund with biggest % position in > it is Dfa 9-10 Us Small, Rank C+, 0.1%. > > > Fundamentals look pretty good: > > EPS 97 > RS 89 > Group RS A > SMR A > Acc Dist D (another weak point, but this may change) > > - 27 % cur EPS (from MSN, sometimes different from IBD) > - 38.6% annual Earnings growth 5 years > - 5 year eps: -0.11, 0.13, 0.37, 0.42, 0.69 > - ROE 32.4% > - 8M shares out (5.9M float) > - 26% MNGMT owns > - No debt > - 15% (20% of float) Instituitions (IBD rating C) > YAHOO reported 33 inst holders > Net buying prior to latest quarter + 29.31% > > > So far there is no handle on a weekly chart, so I am perplexed as to wether > consider the absolute high of the base as the buy point. > > I would appreciate your input on buying this if a breakout on good volume > occurs. > > ______________________________________________ > FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com > Sign up at http://www.mail.com?sr=mc.mk.mcm.tag001 > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sell on a split? Date: 06 Mar 2000 02:20:31 -0500 I agree with you, Tim, that the old rule of selling on a runup after a split is announced has become somewhat out of favor. But I think the key is how the stock behaves. If the split announcement doesn't cause a wave of buying, and price spike, then I would hold, as I have done on TMBS now twice. But if the price gets out of hand, I would be inclined to take profits right before the split takes place, and see how it trades for a few days after the split. If I like it long term, I would be prepared to buy back in either above or below my selling price. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, March 05, 2000 11:50 AM IMHO that rule is another one that is outdated. Splits are irrelevant to bullish. Following that rule you would have sold almost every single one of the best performers of this bull market multiple times since they began their several thousand percent runs. You would have sold TQNT at about $10 when it ran up last July on a split, JDSU at under $100 last Nov (run up on announcement), SDLI at $75 last June & BVSN at $60 in Oct (ran up after split), etc etc ad nauseum. When a stock is on a run, splits happen to keep the price down. I would even argue that splits are one of the most bullish things that can happen to a stock. I would not follow the buy-on-the-split crowd, but if I held it I certainly wouldn't dump it just because it ran up when they announced a split. They often run up again right after the split. If a stock dips on a split announcement or a split, I would be suspicious. Now if you see a $20 stock split 20:1 (yes, this happened to a friend of mine), run away screaming. That's a pump-n-dump. At 05:45 PM 3/4/00 -0800, you wrote: >I think the split would confirm that it's a buying climax top. > >Mike > >-----Original Message----- >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Hugh Fader >Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2000 4:24 PM >To: CANSLIM Mail Group >Subject: [CANSLIM] Sell on a split? > > >One of the laundry list of sell rules in HTMMIS is: > >Sell if a stock runs up on a stock split for one or two weeks >(usuallay +25% or +30% and, in a few rare instances, +50%). If a >stock's price is extended from its base and a stock split is >announced, in many instances, the stock should be sold. > >I have seen stocks really take off on a split and others reverse, >so I don't understand the rule. Can anybody offer a rationale for >it? > >Thanks, >Hugh > > >- > > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Picks? Date: 06 Mar 2000 02:41:27 -0500 It's simply what I am comfortable with. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, March 05, 2000 7:49 PM > It's just that I insist on diversification; always want to > buy multi hundred shares; Why? > If I were to buy, say 60 shares of xyz, and it > made a big move, I would either hold or sell it all. Why wouldn't you sell 30 of your 60 shares? > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html -- Peter D Christiansen Chiang Mai, Thailand <*> "The end does not justify the means. No one's rights can be secured by the violation of the rights of others." -- "The Cashing-In: The Student Rebellion," Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal <*> - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Naz gains Date: 06 Mar 2000 03:11:09 -0500 While it seems that Nasdaq is becoming more volatile, it is deceptive as the numerical value of this index grows ever higher. I snipped the list below, and worth noting that while nine of the top ten points gainers occurred already this year, only one was sufficient to make the top ten in percentage terms. And likewise, only one in 1999 made the top ten % list (and those two rank 9 and 10 overall). So, while the volatility is certainly there, it may be more psychological than significant. TOP TEN LARGEST POINT INCREASES Date Point Change 02/23/00 +168.21 01/10/00 +167.05 03/03/00 +160.26 (unofficial) 01/07/00 +155.49 02/03/00 +137.02 12/21/99 +127.28 02/10/00 +122.39 02/17/00 +121.27 02/29/00 +118.84 02/01/00 +111.63 TOP TEN LARGEST PERCENT INCREASES Date Percent Change 10/21/87 +7.34 09/08/98 +6.02 10/30/87 +5.29 10/29/87 +5.20 10/09/98 +5.17 09/01/98 +5.06 10/15/98 +4.55 10/28/97 +4.43 01/10/00 +4.30 06/16/99 +4.27 Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Steve F Subject: [CANSLIM] CGN Date: 06 Mar 2000 04:09:50 -0800 (PST) Put this one on your watch lists. Everything seems to be in place just waiting for someone to notice; this is ready to break out. All A's on DGO good increases, in sales and earnings. Digging a little deeper, ROE and return on assets both over 20%. P/E is around 24. I own this at 21, it tried to break out a couple of times already. I am going to hold on for a while. Steve __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter D. Christiansen" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Picks? Date: 06 Mar 2000 19:53:49 +0700 Is there a problem with buying and selling odd lots such as poorer fills? These days the commission is the same for round or odd lots. Stops can be placed on odd lots just like round lots. I am just curious if I am missing something here. PDC Tom Worley wrote: > It's simply what I am comfortable with. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Peter D. Christiansen > To: > Sent: Sunday, March 05, 2000 7:49 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Picks? > > > It's just that I insist on diversification; always want to > > buy multi hundred shares; > > Why? > > > If I were to buy, say 60 shares of xyz, and it > > made a big move, I would either hold or sell it all. > > Why wouldn't you sell 30 of your 60 shares? > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > -- > Peter D Christiansen > Chiang Mai, > Thailand > > <*> "The end does not justify the means. No one's rights can > be secured > by the violation of the rights of others." -- "The > Cashing-In: The > Student Rebellion," Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal <*> > > - > > - -- Peter D Christiansen Chiang Mai, Thailand <*> "The end does not justify the means. No one's rights can be secured by the violation of the rights of others." -- "The Cashing-In: The Student Rebellion," Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal <*> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Picks? Date: 06 Mar 2000 08:27:13 -0500 Odd lots are not represented to the marketplace, so if you are using limits, you may not get good executions. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Monday, March 06, 2000 7:53 AM Is there a problem with buying and selling odd lots such as poorer fills? These days the commission is the same for round or odd lots. Stops can be placed on odd lots just like round lots. I am just curious if I am missing something here. PDC Tom Worley wrote: > It's simply what I am comfortable with. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Peter D. Christiansen > To: > Sent: Sunday, March 05, 2000 7:49 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Picks? > > > It's just that I insist on diversification; always want to > > buy multi hundred shares; > > Why? > > > If I were to buy, say 60 shares of xyz, and it > > made a big move, I would either hold or sell it all. > > Why wouldn't you sell 30 of your 60 shares? > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > -- > Peter D Christiansen > Chiang Mai, > Thailand > > <*> "The end does not justify the means. No one's rights can > be secured > by the violation of the rights of others." -- "The > Cashing-In: The > Student Rebellion," Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal <*> > > - > > - -- Peter D Christiansen Chiang Mai, Thailand <*> "The end does not justify the means. No one's rights can be secured by the violation of the rights of others." -- "The Cashing-In: The Student Rebellion," Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal <*> - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DRAM Date: 06 Mar 2000 06:43:38 -0800 Not bad but why is it dead when the NASDAQ and its group have charged up something like 30% the past 2 months? I wouldn't consider it until I could answer that question. At 12:06 AM 3/6/00 -0500, you wrote: >Looks like DRAM is coming very close to its pivot point from a pretty good >double bottom base (decent length - not like many 4 week bases). >Two weak points: >* 2 weeks of volume pick up at the bottom, though it does not look very >sever to me. Any comments? >* IBD instituitional sponsorship is C, and a fund with biggest % position in >it is Dfa 9-10 Us Small, Rank C+, 0.1%. > > >Fundamentals look pretty good: > >EPS 97 >RS 89 >Group RS A >SMR A >Acc Dist D (another weak point, but this may change) > >- 27 % cur EPS (from MSN, sometimes different from IBD) >- 38.6% annual Earnings growth 5 years >- 5 year eps: -0.11, 0.13, 0.37, 0.42, 0.69 >- ROE 32.4% >- 8M shares out (5.9M float) >- 26% MNGMT owns >- No debt >- 15% (20% of float) Instituitions (IBD rating C) >YAHOO reported 33 inst holders >Net buying prior to latest quarter + 29.31% > > >So far there is no handle on a weekly chart, so I am perplexed as to wether >consider the absolute high of the base as the buy point. > >I would appreciate your input on buying this if a breakout on good volume >occurs. > >______________________________________________ >FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com >Sign up at http://www.mail.com?sr=mc.mk.mcm.tag001 > > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Naz gains Date: 06 Mar 2000 07:47:08 -0700 Interesting post Tom...Thanks Ziggy Tom Worley wrote: > While it seems that Nasdaq is becoming more volatile, it is > deceptive as the numerical value of this index grows ever > higher. I snipped the list below, and worth noting that > while nine of the top ten points gainers occurred already > this year, only one was sufficient to make the top ten in > percentage terms. And likewise, only one in 1999 made the > top ten % list (and those two rank 9 and 10 overall). > > So, while the volatility is certainly there, it may be more > psychological than significant. > > TOP TEN LARGEST POINT INCREASES > Date Point Change > 02/23/00 +168.21 > 01/10/00 +167.05 > 03/03/00 +160.26 (unofficial) > 01/07/00 +155.49 > 02/03/00 +137.02 > 12/21/99 +127.28 > 02/10/00 +122.39 > 02/17/00 +121.27 > 02/29/00 +118.84 > 02/01/00 +111.63 > > TOP TEN LARGEST PERCENT INCREASES > Date Percent Change > 10/21/87 +7.34 > 09/08/98 +6.02 > 10/30/87 +5.29 > 10/29/87 +5.20 > 10/09/98 +5.17 > 09/01/98 +5.06 > 10/15/98 +4.55 > 10/28/97 +4.43 > 01/10/00 +4.30 > 06/16/99 +4.27 > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Dave Rubin" Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: IKOS Date: 06 Mar 2000 09:58:26 -0500 OK, I will wait until next month to mention IKOS again. By then it will be a $20 stock. :-) -- Dave - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter D. Christiansen" Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakout DIO Date: 06 Mar 2000 22:29:17 +0700 DIO is breaking out on very heavy volume. -- Peter D Christiansen Chiang Mai, Thailand <*> "The end does not justify the means. No one's rights can be secured by the violation of the rights of others." -- "The Cashing-In: The Student Rebellion," Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal <*> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Date: 06 Mar 2000 12:07:31 -0500 Ahh, it's all making sense to me now. The market that is. I'm going to have to stop shorting the old economy stocks and just go long anything with a four letter symbol. Maybe Clinton should mandate Prozac for all US citizens. Nas 10000 by Christmas! And he wouldn't have to worry about inhaling. Seriously, Zoran, this was an interesting article. Thanks. Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada Zoran Mitrovski wrote: > Just read this interesting article in my Sunday NY Times. A peculiar > angle. Is the bull high on Prozac? Only a critical mass of > overoptimistic Prozac users would be needed to pull the > momentum-inclined rest into the fray. > > Cheers, > Zoran (of the "momentum-minded rest" and 100% in, to boot) > > ********************************************************************** > ******************** > > A Psychiatric Theory on Irrational Exuberance > > It is a truism that the stock market is a pendulum swinging between > fear and greed. But what if there is no fear because investors are > chock full of Prozac or other psychoactive drugs? > > Perhaps stock prices and indexes like the Nasdaq composite, up 20.8 > percent so far this year, could race to unprecedented valuations as > investors' usual reactions to things like high price-earnings > multiples and rising interesting rates are suppressed. > > That is the hypothesis being floated by Randolph M. Nesse, a professor > of psychiatry at the University of Michigan, in a recent essay posted > on a Web site called Edge, (www.edge.org). > > Nesse points out that prescriptions for psychoactive drugs rose to 233 > million in 1998 from 131 million in 1988, with nearly 10 million > filled last year for Prozac alone. Next, he considers the likelihood > that a disproportionately high part of the population connected to the > markets -- brokers and wealthy individuals, in particular -- are > likely to be taking antidepressants. > > And he says he has noted that certain of his patients who take such > drugs seem to worry too little about real dangers. "This is exactly > the mind-set of many current investors," he said. > > Nesse said he did not want to belittle the positive effects that > antidepressants may be having on the economy. > > "They are productive employees," he said of workers taking such drugs. > > "But if investor caution is being inhibited by psychotropic drugs, > bubbles could grow larger than usual before they pop, with potentially > catastrophic economic and political consequences," he said. "If > chemicals are inhibiting normal caution in any substantial fraction of > investors, we need to know about it." > > On the other hand, if a "Prozac effect" on the markets is confirmed > through further research, it might not necessarily be bad news for > stocks. Only one-third of the population that could benefit from > antidepressants is currently taking them, according to Nesse. So, > presumably, the market has room to go higher. > > (Full disclosure: Nesse said he was not currently invested in the > market, having recently sold a position in a biotechnology stock, > Affymetrix.) > > In any case, Nesse is adamant that government-sponsored research into > the topic is necessary. But he is not sure whether it should be > carried out by the Securities and Exchange Commission or the National > Institutes of Mental Health. > > -- Richard Teitelbaum > > ********************************************************************** > ******************* > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. > http://im.yahoo.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: inderjit singh Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CGN Date: 06 Mar 2000 14:30:35 -0500 Steve: CGN appears to be doing what you said. HHGP has great numbers and seems to be breaking out today. Have a nice day. Inderjit Steve F wrote: > Put this one on your watch lists. Everything seems to > be in place just waiting for someone to notice; this > is ready to break out. > > All A's on DGO good increases, in sales and > earnings. Digging a little deeper, ROE and return on > assets both over 20%. P/E is around 24. > > I own this at 21, it tried to break out a couple of > times already. I am going to hold on for a while. > > Steve > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. > http://im.yahoo.com > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Naz gains Date: 06 Mar 2000 19:02:49 -0700 Ah, you've caught one of my pet peeves. Even IBD slips up on this one sometimes (but usually they quantify the real % gain). I HATE IT when the press proclaims 2ND LARGEST POINT GAIN EVER while forgetting to mention the percentage wasn't all that large. I always look for the data to see what the real change was, since the press seems to prefer the Flash to substance. At 03:11 AM 3/6/00 -0500, you wrote: >While it seems that Nasdaq is becoming more volatile, it is >deceptive as the numerical value of this index grows ever >higher. I snipped the list below, and worth noting that >while nine of the top ten points gainers occurred already >this year, only one was sufficient to make the top ten in >percentage terms. And likewise, only one in 1999 made the >top ten % list (and those two rank 9 and 10 overall). > >So, while the volatility is certainly there, it may be more >psychological than significant. > > TOP TEN LARGEST POINT INCREASES > Date Point Change > 02/23/00 +168.21 > 01/10/00 +167.05 > 03/03/00 +160.26 (unofficial) > 01/07/00 +155.49 > 02/03/00 +137.02 > 12/21/99 +127.28 > 02/10/00 +122.39 > 02/17/00 +121.27 > 02/29/00 +118.84 > 02/01/00 +111.63 > > TOP TEN LARGEST PERCENT INCREASES > Date Percent Change > 10/21/87 +7.34 > 09/08/98 +6.02 > 10/30/87 +5.29 > 10/29/87 +5.20 > 10/09/98 +5.17 > 09/01/98 +5.06 > 10/15/98 +4.55 > 10/28/97 +4.43 > 01/10/00 +4.30 > 06/16/99 +4.27 > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mikelu" Subject: [CANSLIM] splits and stops Date: 06 Mar 2000 22:40:39 -0800 I'm using Schwab and placing hard sell stops. When a stock is splitting the next trading day, it seems there's a small window of time after Schwab has updated existing sell stop orders to their post-split price and quantity, but you can modify the order unaware of the split. This caused me to sell VRTS today. A consolation is that I sold only the pre-split quantity, so I will still own 80 shares tomorrow. Mike - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout DIO Date: 07 Mar 2000 03:04:54 -0500 Peter, Wouldn't Friday have been the breakout, since it hit a new high on twice ADV? And today being the confirmation (and party day for those lucky or quick enough to get in on Friday)? Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Monday, March 06, 2000 10:29 AM DIO is breaking out on very heavy volume. -- Peter D Christiansen Chiang Mai, Thailand <*> "The end does not justify the means. No one's rights can be secured by the violation of the rights of others." -- "The Cashing-In: The Student Rebellion," Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal <*> - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Peter D. Christiansen" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout DIO Date: 07 Mar 2000 18:25:41 +0700 Maybe so, but it wasn't a convincing breakout to me. I didn't like the fact that it didn't close above the previous intraday highs of 28 1/16. I got a very good fill on monday a.m. as it traded to new highs on huge volume. I am now sitting several points in the black. PDC Tom Worley wrote: > Peter, > > Wouldn't Friday have been the breakout, since it hit a new > high on twice ADV? And today being the confirmation (and > party day for those lucky or quick enough to get in on > Friday)? > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > -- Peter D Christiansen Chiang Mai, Thailand <*> "Poverty is not a mortgage on the labor of others - misfortune is not a mortgage on achievement - failure is not a mortgage on success - suffering is not a claim check, and its relief is not the goal of existence - man is not a sacrificial animal on anyone's altar nor for anyone's cause - life is not one huge hospital." -- "Apollo 11," The Objectivist <*> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DRAM Date: 07 Mar 2000 08:56:40 -0700 Thanks for posting Alexander. In double bottom (or W) patterns, I will use as a pivot point 1/8 point higher than the high of the middle part of the W if accompanied by volume at least 50% above ADV. The previous high of the W center was 22 3/8, and because it broke out on good volume, I consider 22 1/2 as the pivot point. As such I puchased this one at 22 3/4 yesterday. My copy of HTMMIS has disappeared (out on loan somewhere), so I cannot verify what WON considers a valid B/O and therefore pivot point price on double bottom or W patterns ...I would appreciate someone posting this info if they know. Evidently noboby in Arizona received their IBD today because of an airplane problem (per IBD), so I could not verify whether or not the Accumulation/Distribution rank has improved from D but I suspect it has because of the increased volume the past two days. Have a great day, Ziggy Alexander T wrote: > Looks like DRAM is coming very close to its pivot point from a pretty good > double bottom base (decent length - not like many 4 week bases). > Two weak points: > * 2 weeks of volume pick up at the bottom, though it does not look very > sever to me. Any comments? > * IBD instituitional sponsorship is C, and a fund with biggest % position in > it is Dfa 9-10 Us Small, Rank C+, 0.1%. > > Fundamentals look pretty good: > > EPS 97 > RS 89 > Group RS A > SMR A > Acc Dist D (another weak point, but this may change) > > - 27 % cur EPS (from MSN, sometimes different from IBD) > - 38.6% annual Earnings growth 5 years > - 5 year eps: -0.11, 0.13, 0.37, 0.42, 0.69 > - ROE 32.4% > - 8M shares out (5.9M float) > - 26% MNGMT owns > - No debt > - 15% (20% of float) Instituitions (IBD rating C) > YAHOO reported 33 inst holders > Net buying prior to latest quarter + 29.31% > > So far there is no handle on a weekly chart, so I am perplexed as to wether > consider the absolute high of the base as the buy point. > > I would appreciate your input on buying this if a breakout on good volume > occurs. > > ______________________________________________ > FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com > Sign up at http://www.mail.com?sr=mc.mk.mcm.tag001 > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: [CANSLIM] Shorting and Canslim and Elder Date: 07 Mar 2000 14:01:55 -0500 Through all of February I have been exclusively on the short side of the market (old economy industrial stocks). Frankly, as most already know, O'Neil goes into very little detail on how to short the market, although I do not agree that shorting is un-Canslim. Many on our list know that I use Elder's book "Trading for a Living" alongside WON's Canslim books. Every time I mention him on this list, I get a boatload of private e-mail. To make a long story short (ha ha), if you want to learn about shorting, read the bits and pieces in HTMMIS, and then read Elder's book and do his study guide. If hadn't read his book, I wouldn't attempt it. It's still a lot more difficult and dangerous than going long exclusively. Still, February has been a wonderful month on the short side. Following are excerpts from Elder's Newsletter that he publishes intermittently. It's free for anyone to subscribe to. > Friday, March 3, 2000 > > A periodic bulletin from Dr Alexander Elder > Director, Financial Trading Inc. > > Dear Trader, > > A beginner can look like a genius when the stock market goes up day aft= er > day and week after week. Then he or she gets hit with the choppiness l= ike > we are having now. It is putting traders' skills to a test and hurts t= hose > with poor money management skills. Markets waste little time cutting u= p > careless and greedy traders. > > Those of us who've been around for many years are impressed by the > similarity of the current stock market and the bull market of the early > 1970, prior to the 1973-74 bear market. The battle cry back then was '= Nifty > Fifty' - because any money manager looked great if only he bought the t= op 50 > high-growth stocks - Polaroid, Raytheon, etc. Today, the bull market i= s > almost just as narrow, with a hundred top tech stocks providing all th= e > fireworks in an otherwise very gray market. > > I am continuing to offer you clippings from the new book on trading tha= t I > am writing. In a few months I will get to the section on money managem= ent > and print some excerpts here. Today, I offer you another brief chapter= on > trading discipline. > > SOBER IN BATTLE > > Most of us open trading accounts with the money we've earned in busines= s or > the professions. Most traders have a track record of success in life a= nd > fully expect to do well in the markets. If we can run a business, perf= orm > surgery, or try cases in court, we can surely find our way between the = high, > the low, and the close! But the markets, which seemed so simple at fir= st, > keep humbling us. > > Trading is the most dangerous human pursuit short of war. Little blood= gets > spilled, but the money, the lifeblood of the markets, can have a major > impact on the quality and the length of your life. Recently a friend w= ho > writes a famous stock market newsletter showed me a sheaf of letters fr= om > his subscribers. Some made enough money to pay for early retirement, > someone else paid for a kidney transplant, which saved his life, etc. = I > thought of what happened to legions of other people with similar needs = and > problems who traded poorly and lost money they needed so badly=85 > > Trading is a battle. When you pick up a weapon and go to fight, would = you > rather be drunk or sober? Do you think it would pay to prepare yoursel= f, > choose your fight, go in when you are ready - and quit after you've don= e > what you've planned? > > A man who is cool and sober calmly picks his fights. He enters and lea= ves > when he chooses and not when some bully throws him a challenge. A > disciplined player chooses his own game out of hundreds available. He = does > not have to chase every rabbit like a dog with its tongue hanging out -= he > lays an ambush for a specific game and lets it come to him. > > Most amateurs won't admit they are trading for entertainment. A common > cover story is that they are in the markets to make money, while in rea= lity > most traders keep tossing money at half-baked ideas, getting tremendous > thrills. Trading financial markets is more respectable than betting on > ponies, but the kicks can be just as good. > > I tell my horse-playing friends - imagine going to a race where you can > place bets after the race has began and take your money off the table b= efore > the race ends - this is trading the markets! It is a fantastic game, b= ut > the temptations are huge, demanding a very high level of discipline. > Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Alexander T Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: DRAM Date: 07 Mar 2000 15:06:01 -0500 (EST) Ziggy, You are correct, the acc/dist rank has improved from D to C, and for some reason the sponsorhip ranking also improved from C to B this week (I guess better funds reported this week?) I got into this stock at 23.5, about 4% higher than the pivot because I saw a strong volume increase and was hopeful. Stock's actions, however, do cast doubts. During the last couple of days DRAM reclaimed all of its day's advance on strong volume, and today I almost got shaken out of it (1/8 point more, and I would've been out!) I guess it may not be a good idea to hold on to something that is fighting such an overhead supply. In leu of this, I am strongly considering dumping it tomorrow when intraday price is probably going to give me a better price. What do you think about this? Regards, Alex ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com?sr=mc.mk.mcm.tag001 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shorting and Canslim and Elder Date: 07 Mar 2000 13:28:28 -0800 Just curious Walter, what is your gain from shorting during Feb? From my limited glimpses of charts of those Old Economy stocks, I see maybe 25-50% corrections in many over a much longer time frame; only a small portion of the drop occurred during Feb. In contrast, I own several New Technologies that are up 100% on the month, and have tracking several others up more than that. As far as hot sectors, I believe the SOX was up something like 65% YTD, and some entire sectors are probably up that much (i.e. optical networking, fiber optics, telecomm chip mfgrs, wireless telecomm, human genomic biotechs). I guess what I am saying is that it seems the potential gain from taking on all that additional risk shorting laggards in a bull market (even one in a correction) is much more limited than the potential gain from chanting "the trend is your friend" and going long the leaders. On 11:01 AM 3/7/00 , Walter Stock Said: >Through all of February I have been exclusively on the short >side of the market (old economy industrial stocks). > >Frankly, as most already know, O'Neil goes into very little detail >on how to short the market, although I do not agree that shorting >is un-Canslim. > >Many on our list know that I use Elder's book "Trading for a Living" >alongside WON's Canslim books. Every time I mention him on this >list, I get a boatload of private e-mail. To make a long story >short (ha ha), if you want to learn about shorting, read the bits and >pieces in HTMMIS, and then read Elder's book and do his >study guide. > >If hadn't read his book, I wouldn't attempt it. It's still a lot more > >difficult and dangerous than going long exclusively. >Still, February has been a wonderful month on the short side. > >Following are excerpts from Elder's Newsletter that he publishes >intermittently. It's free for anyone to subscribe to. > >Walter Stock >Oakville, ON, Canada Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: DRAM Date: 07 Mar 2000 15:40:08 -0700 Alex, Virtually everyone who owns the stock bought at a price lower than current prices...DRAM hit a new high today so I don't think "overhead resistance" applies here...rather selling is probably related to some profit taking as well as the overall lousy market we've had today. Also, WON states that "About 40% of stocks you buy will pull back near your initial buy point ("pivot point")---sometimes on big volume---for one or two days. Don't get scared out on this normal yet sharp pullback in price. As long as your loss cutting point has not been reached (8% below cost), sit tight and be patient. Sometimes it takes a number of weeks for a stock to slowly take off from its launching pad." Although DRAM retraced most of today's gain, it still finished up for the day on continued good volume...in light of the poor market today, I am encouraged by this. You mentioned that you were 1/8 of a point from hitting your stop...you must be using 7% below your puchase price of 23 1/2. I would probably use an 8% figure like WON suggests. This would put the stop down to about 21 5/8 instead of 21 7/8...and will give you a little more room in this volatile market. I used to use 7% but recently changed to 8% and this seems to be working better. If the market continues its selloff, all bets are off. Just my thoughts. Ziggy Alexander T wrote: > Ziggy, > > You are correct, the acc/dist rank has improved from D to C, and for some > reason the sponsorhip ranking also improved from C to B this week (I guess > better funds reported this week?) > > I got into this stock at 23.5, about 4% higher than the pivot because I saw > a strong volume increase and was hopeful. Stock's actions, however, do cast > doubts. > > During the last couple of days DRAM reclaimed all of its day's advance on > strong volume, and today I almost got shaken out of it (1/8 point more, and > I would've been out!) > > I guess it may not be a good idea to hold on to something that is fighting > such an overhead supply. In leu of this, I am strongly considering dumping > it tomorrow when intraday price is probably going to give me a better price. > > What do you think about this? > > Regards, > > Alex > > ______________________________________________ > FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com > Sign up at http://www.mail.com?sr=mc.mk.mcm.tag001 > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Alexander T Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: DRAM Date: 07 Mar 2000 17:56:14 -0500 (EST) That's why this list is good. While I the rest is uncertain, I realize that my interpretation of overhead resistance does not apply here at all. I would also definately agree that 8% is betteer than 7 these days. CANSLIm is still somewhat new for me, and pretty different from value where I wasn't very successful. And even though I've read HTMMIS about 3 times, I still dont' remember many points, so thanks for the point on pullbacks, Ziggy. Regards, Alex ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com?sr=mc.mk.mcm.tag001 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shorting and Canslim and Elder Date: 07 Mar 2000 18:53:00 -0500 Huh? A few weeks ago you told our list that shorting "wasn't Canslim", and didn't want a discussion on our list. Now you want to discuss it? And even though I had already said that my shorts were based on Elder rather than Canslim? I must be missing something. Well, I'll try to answer your questions. What is my gain shorting during Feb? Well, less than your 100% gains in new technology stocks. Many of those are no doubt quite extended and probably no less risky than my shorts. If you want specific examples of stocks I shorted look at the charts of CAT, IP, BA and AXP. You'll see that "the trend is my friend" on the short side as well, and I am well satisfied with the results. I also had no losing trades the entire month. I am not going to comment on entries or tactics because none of these shorts were Canslim. As I had explained, my shorting tactics derive more from Elder than WON. C'mon now Tim, you permabulls need to 'fess up and admit it. ;-) Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada Tim Fisher wrote: > Just curious Walter, what is your gain from shorting during Feb? From my > limited glimpses of charts of those Old Economy stocks, I see maybe 25-50% > corrections in many over a much longer time frame; only a small portion of > the drop occurred during Feb. In contrast, I own several New Technologies > that are up 100% on the month, and have tracking several others up more > than that. As far as hot sectors, I believe the SOX was up something like > 65% YTD, and some entire sectors are probably up that much (i.e. optical > networking, fiber optics, telecomm chip mfgrs, wireless telecomm, human > genomic biotechs). I guess what I am saying is that it seems the potential > gain from taking on all that additional risk shorting laggards in a bull > market (even one in a correction) is much more limited than the potential > gain from chanting "the trend is your friend" and going long the leaders. > > On 11:01 AM 3/7/00 , Walter Stock Said: > >Through all of February I have been exclusively on the short > >side of the market (old economy industrial stocks). > > > >Frankly, as most already know, O'Neil goes into very little detail > >on how to short the market, although I do not agree that shorting > >is un-Canslim. > > > >Many on our list know that I use Elder's book "Trading for a Living" > >alongside WON's Canslim books. Every time I mention him on this > >list, I get a boatload of private e-mail. To make a long story > >short (ha ha), if you want to learn about shorting, read the bits and > >pieces in HTMMIS, and then read Elder's book and do his > >study guide. > > > >If hadn't read his book, I wouldn't attempt it. It's still a lot more > > > >difficult and dangerous than going long exclusively. > >Still, February has been a wonderful month on the short side. > > > >Following are excerpts from Elder's Newsletter that he publishes > >intermittently. It's free for anyone to subscribe to. > > > >Walter Stock > >Oakville, ON, Canada > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shorting and Canslim and Elder Date: 07 Mar 2000 16:26:46 -0800 Nope, you are not missing anything. Except maybe my point, which was definitely not to set you off nor to goad you about shorting. It was to compare _real_ gains going short & long during this past Feb. You show me yours, I'll show you mine. That sort of thing. Because I'm betting that you are not performing as well as the longs in this bull market. Which was my point. Or hypothesis. Not that I claimed a 100% gain for the month. Just gave a couple of examples. Wish I had doubled ;) On 03:53 PM 3/7/00 , Walter Stock Said: >Huh? A few weeks ago you told our list that shorting "wasn't Canslim", >and didn't want a discussion on our list. Now you want to discuss it? >And even though I had already said that my shorts were based on >Elder rather than Canslim? I must be missing something. > >Well, I'll try to answer your questions. > >What is my gain shorting during Feb? Well, less than your 100% >gains in new technology stocks. Many of those are no doubt quite >extended and probably no less risky than my shorts. >If you want specific examples of stocks I shorted look at the >charts of CAT, IP, BA and AXP. You'll see that >"the trend is my friend" on the short side as well, and I am well >satisfied with the results. I also had no losing trades the entire month. > >I am not going to comment on entries or tactics because none >of these shorts were Canslim. As I had explained, my shorting >tactics derive more from Elder than WON. > >C'mon now Tim, you permabulls need to 'fess up and admit it. ;-) > >Walter Stock >Oakville, ON, Canada > > >Tim Fisher wrote: > > > Just curious Walter, what is your gain from shorting during Feb? From my > > limited glimpses of charts of those Old Economy stocks, I see maybe 25-50% > > corrections in many over a much longer time frame; only a small portion of > > the drop occurred during Feb. In contrast, I own several New Technologies > > that are up 100% on the month, and have tracking several others up more > > than that. As far as hot sectors, I believe the SOX was up something like > > 65% YTD, and some entire sectors are probably up that much (i.e. optical > > networking, fiber optics, telecomm chip mfgrs, wireless telecomm, human > > genomic biotechs). I guess what I am saying is that it seems the potential > > gain from taking on all that additional risk shorting laggards in a bull > > market (even one in a correction) is much more limited than the potential > > gain from chanting "the trend is your friend" and going long the leaders. > > > > On 11:01 AM 3/7/00 , Walter Stock Said: > > >Through all of February I have been exclusively on the short > > >side of the market (old economy industrial stocks). > > > > > >Frankly, as most already know, O'Neil goes into very little detail > > >on how to short the market, although I do not agree that shorting > > >is un-Canslim. > > > > > >Many on our list know that I use Elder's book "Trading for a Living" > > >alongside WON's Canslim books. Every time I mention him on this > > >list, I get a boatload of private e-mail. To make a long story > > >short (ha ha), if you want to learn about shorting, read the bits and > > >pieces in HTMMIS, and then read Elder's book and do his > > >study guide. > > > > > >If hadn't read his book, I wouldn't attempt it. It's still a lot more > > > > > >difficult and dangerous than going long exclusively. > > >Still, February has been a wonderful month on the short side. > > > > > >Following are excerpts from Elder's Newsletter that he publishes > > >intermittently. It's free for anyone to subscribe to. > > > > > >Walter Stock > > >Oakville, ON, Canada > > > > Tim Fisher > > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > > See naked fish and rocks! > > > > - > > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shorting and Canslim and Elder Date: 07 Mar 2000 19:27:05 -0800 (PST) Walter, Check out AMGN for a short. ciao, rolatzi --- Walter Stock wrote: > Huh? A few weeks ago you told our list that shorting > "wasn't Canslim", > and didn't want a discussion on our list. Now you want > to discuss it? > And even though I had already said that my shorts were > based on > Elder rather than Canslim? I must be missing something. > > Well, I'll try to answer your questions. > > What is my gain shorting during Feb? Well, less than > your 100% > gains in new technology stocks. Many of those are no > doubt quite > extended and probably no less risky than my shorts. > If you want specific examples of stocks I shorted look at > the > charts of CAT, IP, BA and AXP. You'll see that > "the trend is my friend" on the short side as well, and I > am well > satisfied with the results. I also had no losing trades > the entire month. > > I am not going to comment on entries or tactics because > none > of these shorts were Canslim. As I had explained, my > shorting > tactics derive more from Elder than WON. > > C'mon now Tim, you permabulls need to 'fess up and admit > it. ;-) > > Walter Stock > Oakville, ON, Canada > > > Tim Fisher wrote: > > > Just curious Walter, what is your gain from shorting > during Feb? From my > > limited glimpses of charts of those Old Economy stocks, > I see maybe 25-50% > > corrections in many over a much longer time frame; only > a small portion of > > the drop occurred during Feb. In contrast, I own > several New Technologies > > that are up 100% on the month, and have tracking > several others up more > > than that. As far as hot sectors, I believe the SOX was > up something like > > 65% YTD, and some entire sectors are probably up that > much (i.e. optical > > networking, fiber optics, telecomm chip mfgrs, wireless > telecomm, human > > genomic biotechs). I guess what I am saying is that it > seems the potential > > gain from taking on all that additional risk shorting > laggards in a bull > > market (even one in a correction) is much more limited > than the potential > > gain from chanting "the trend is your friend" and going > long the leaders. > > > > On 11:01 AM 3/7/00 , Walter Stock Said: > > >Through all of February I have been exclusively on the > short > > >side of the market (old economy industrial stocks). > > > > > >Frankly, as most already know, O'Neil goes into very > little detail > > >on how to short the market, although I do not agree > that shorting > > >is un-Canslim. > > > > > >Many on our list know that I use Elder's book "Trading > for a Living" > > >alongside WON's Canslim books. Every time I mention > him on this > > >list, I get a boatload of private e-mail. To make a > long story > > >short (ha ha), if you want to learn about shorting, > read the bits and > > >pieces in HTMMIS, and then read Elder's book and do > his > > >study guide. > > > > > >If hadn't read his book, I wouldn't attempt it. > It's still a lot more > > > > > >difficult and dangerous than going long exclusively. > > >Still, February has been a wonderful month on the > short side. > > > > > >Following are excerpts from Elder's Newsletter that he > publishes > > >intermittently. It's free for anyone to subscribe to. > > > > > >Walter Stock > > >Oakville, ON, Canada > > > > Tim Fisher > > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > > See naked fish and rocks! > > > > - > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shorting and Canslim and Elder Date: 07 Mar 2000 23:44:41 -0500 Tim, I'm definitely not outperforming the tech longs in the hot industry groups. I'm also sure you had a better month of real gains than I did (based upon the stocks you have written about in February e-mail). Still, I am happy with my results. My reasons for shorting were twofold: first, I felt that the risk in my "old economy" shorts was actually less than than buying more of the extended stocks that I had ridden up since the end of October. Second reason was that I want to get better at shorting, and I thought that a long decline in some steady and liquid stocks would be a good way to learn. I want to be ready if the markets eventually go into a major decline. I am only now learning about upside down cups-and-handles. By the way Tim, I also wish I had doubled and you had too. : ) Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada Tim Fisher wrote: > Nope, you are not missing anything. Except maybe my point, which was > definitely not to set you off nor to goad you about shorting. It was to > compare _real_ gains going short & long during this past Feb. You show me > yours, I'll show you mine. That sort of thing. Because I'm betting that you > are not performing as well as the longs in this bull market. Which was my > point. Or hypothesis. Not that I claimed a 100% gain for the month. Just > gave a couple of examples. Wish I had doubled ;) > > On 03:53 PM 3/7/00 , Walter Stock Said: > >Huh? A few weeks ago you told our list that shorting "wasn't Canslim", > >and didn't want a discussion on our list. Now you want to discuss it? > >And even though I had already said that my shorts were based on > >Elder rather than Canslim? I must be missing something. > > > >Well, I'll try to answer your questions. > > > >What is my gain shorting during Feb? Well, less than your 100% > >gains in new technology stocks. Many of those are no doubt quite > >extended and probably no less risky than my shorts. > >If you want specific examples of stocks I shorted look at the > >charts of CAT, IP, BA and AXP. You'll see that > >"the trend is my friend" on the short side as well, and I am well > >satisfied with the results. I also had no losing trades the entire month. > > > >I am not going to comment on entries or tactics because none > >of these shorts were Canslim. As I had explained, my shorting > >tactics derive more from Elder than WON. > > > >C'mon now Tim, you permabulls need to 'fess up and admit it. ;-) > > > >Walter Stock > >Oakville, ON, Canada > > > > > >Tim Fisher wrote: > > > > > Just curious Walter, what is your gain from shorting during Feb? From my > > > limited glimpses of charts of those Old Economy stocks, I see maybe 25-50% > > > corrections in many over a much longer time frame; only a small portion of > > > the drop occurred during Feb. In contrast, I own several New Technologies > > > that are up 100% on the month, and have tracking several others up more > > > than that. As far as hot sectors, I believe the SOX was up something like > > > 65% YTD, and some entire sectors are probably up that much (i.e. optical > > > networking, fiber optics, telecomm chip mfgrs, wireless telecomm, human > > > genomic biotechs). I guess what I am saying is that it seems the potential > > > gain from taking on all that additional risk shorting laggards in a bull > > > market (even one in a correction) is much more limited than the potential > > > gain from chanting "the trend is your friend" and going long the leaders. > > > > > > On 11:01 AM 3/7/00 , Walter Stock Said: > > > >Through all of February I have been exclusively on the short > > > >side of the market (old economy industrial stocks). > > > > > > > >Frankly, as most already know, O'Neil goes into very little detail > > > >on how to short the market, although I do not agree that shorting > > > >is un-Canslim. > > > > > > > >Many on our list know that I use Elder's book "Trading for a Living" > > > >alongside WON's Canslim books. Every time I mention him on this > > > >list, I get a boatload of private e-mail. To make a long story > > > >short (ha ha), if you want to learn about shorting, read the bits and > > > >pieces in HTMMIS, and then read Elder's book and do his > > > >study guide. > > > > > > > >If hadn't read his book, I wouldn't attempt it. It's still a lot more > > > > > > > >difficult and dangerous than going long exclusively. > > > >Still, February has been a wonderful month on the short side. > > > > > > > >Following are excerpts from Elder's Newsletter that he publishes > > > >intermittently. It's free for anyone to subscribe to. > > > > > > > >Walter Stock > > > >Oakville, ON, Canada > > > > > > Tim Fisher > > > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > > > > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > > > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > > > See naked fish and rocks! > > > > > > - > > > > > >- > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shorting and Canslim and Elder Date: 07 Mar 2000 21:38:16 -0800 Actually I was +42.36% on what I held in my two trading accounts on 2/28. I will stop being a bull when I am stopped out of all my holdings. Like most here I am waiting for M to tell me to get out of the market, and so far it hasn't. Then I'll be a watcher. I was stopped out of 2 biotechs and am not doing so hot on the two buys I made to replace them, so I am waiting for the correction to begin. The "Gas in the Tank" indicator is on "E" for the NASDAQ. I.e. 4950 was not sustainable and we need a 10-15% correction in order to go higher. Support looks to be around 4300 to me which is 13% down from the top. At 11:44 PM 3/7/00 -0500, you wrote: >Tim, I'm definitely not outperforming the tech longs in the hot industry >groups. I'm also sure you had a better month of real gains than I did >(based upon the stocks you have written about in February e-mail). >Still, I am happy with my results. > >My reasons for shorting were twofold: first, I felt that the risk in my >"old economy" shorts was actually less than than buying more of the >extended stocks that I had ridden up since the end of October. > >Second reason was that I want to get better at shorting, and I thought >that a long decline in some steady and liquid stocks would be a >good way to learn. I want to be ready if the markets eventually >go into a major decline. I am only now learning about upside down >cups-and-handles. > >By the way Tim, I also wish I had doubled and you had too. : ) > >Walter Stock >Oakville, ON, Canada > > >Tim Fisher wrote: > > > Nope, you are not missing anything. Except maybe my point, which was > > definitely not to set you off nor to goad you about shorting. It was to > > compare _real_ gains going short & long during this past Feb. You show me > > yours, I'll show you mine. That sort of thing. Because I'm betting that you > > are not performing as well as the longs in this bull market. Which was my > > point. Or hypothesis. Not that I claimed a 100% gain for the month. Just > > gave a couple of examples. Wish I had doubled ;) > > > > On 03:53 PM 3/7/00 , Walter Stock Said: > > >Huh? A few weeks ago you told our list that shorting "wasn't Canslim", > > >and didn't want a discussion on our list. Now you want to discuss it? > > >And even though I had already said that my shorts were based on > > >Elder rather than Canslim? I must be missing something. > > > > > >Well, I'll try to answer your questions. > > > > > >What is my gain shorting during Feb? Well, less than your 100% > > >gains in new technology stocks. Many of those are no doubt quite > > >extended and probably no less risky than my shorts. > > >If you want specific examples of stocks I shorted look at the > > >charts of CAT, IP, BA and AXP. You'll see that > > >"the trend is my friend" on the short side as well, and I am well > > >satisfied with the results. I also had no losing trades the entire month. > > > > > >I am not going to comment on entries or tactics because none > > >of these shorts were Canslim. As I had explained, my shorting > > >tactics derive more from Elder than WON. > > > > > >C'mon now Tim, you permabulls need to 'fess up and admit it. ;-) > > > > > >Walter Stock > > >Oakville, ON, Canada > > > > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke Lang Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shorting and Canslim and Elder Date: 07 Mar 2000 22:13:04 -0800 (PST) Rolatzi, With support at low 59 and biotech being so strong lately, I don't think shorting AMGN is a good idea. Luke --- rolatzi wrote: > Walter, > Check out AMGN for a short. > ciao, > rolatzi > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Alexander T Subject: [CANSLIM] loss cutting Date: 08 Mar 2000 11:54:32 -0500 (EST) I am somewhat confused as to how WON suggests implementing his loss cutting technique. Does he recommend to sell AS SOON as the stock touches -8% intraday ? Or is when the closing price touches -8% ? Using #2, if a stock hits -8% closing, you can sell it the following day a little higher, and also you will be somewhat protected against intraday volatilities... What are you thoughts on this? Thanks ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com?sr=mc.mk.mcm.tag001 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] loss cutting Date: 08 Mar 2000 11:39:58 -0700 Alex, I am not sure how WON implements his sells either...I would suggest you call the IBD Education line at (310) 448-6150 and ask them...then post what they say. I personally will use intraday (unless I feel a shakout is occurring ie, a big drop on extremely light volume) but I think several members here use closing numbers to not get shaken out as you point out. Some also use hard stops. Ziggy Alexander T wrote: > I am somewhat confused as to how WON suggests implementing his loss cutting > technique. > > Does he recommend to sell AS SOON as the stock touches -8% intraday ? > > Or is when the closing price touches -8% ? > > Using #2, if a stock hits -8% closing, you can sell it the following day a > little higher, and also you will be somewhat protected against intraday > volatilities... > > What are you thoughts on this? > > Thanks > > ______________________________________________ > FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com > Sign up at http://www.mail.com?sr=mc.mk.mcm.tag001 > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Steve F Subject: [CANSLIM] CGN Date: 08 Mar 2000 12:15:15 -0800 (PST) OUCH !!! I guess I feel kind of silly on this one. Hope not too many followed me down the tubes on this one. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CGN Date: 08 Mar 2000 13:51:43 -0800 HTMMIS does say not to buy before the earnings announcement. On 12:15 PM 3/8/00 , Steve F Said: >OUCH !!! > >I guess I feel kind of silly on this one. > >Hope not too many followed me down the tubes on this one. >__________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. >http://im.yahoo.com Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mary Keener Subject: [CANSLIM] Shorting and Canslim and Elder Date: 08 Mar 2000 15:46:24 -0800 Walter, How does one subscribe to Elder's intermittent newsletter? Didn't see a snail or e-mail address. His analogy of being drunk or sober is good, very good. Also, picking your battles. I've pushed myself into scenes, got caught up in the fight and usually lost, barely saving my skin. Now, I try to watch the battle, join the side that's winning and get out before the battle is over. Thanks, Walter. Shorting is part of investing. I'd like to see it discussed on this board. I know Tom and others are more against it than for it because of the risks involved. I'd rather address it, learn more since I suspect there are people on this board who short, but may feel it isn't a topic to be explored here. My opinion. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shorting and Canslim and Elder Date: 08 Mar 2000 19:32:40 -0800 I guess I get frustrated when I see posts such as one I saw on another list last week - "PALM is the perfect short. Wish I could short my IRA." I cringe at such a total lack of knowledge of the intricate and risky ways of picking and selling shorts (IMHO, PALM is about the riskiest short candidate I can think of right now. I'd rather short JDSU!). Therefore if it is to be discussed at all, it needs to be discussed appropriately to this lists' avowed purpose, i.e. within the confines of CANSLIM. Shorting the "Old Economy", most certainly Not-CANSLIM stocks is not an appropriate topic for this list. Picking stocks that are breaking down because their CANSLIM numbers are weakening could be an appropriate topic, but I have never seen "the shorters" who belong to this list want to engage in such a discussion. I put forth some (but certainly not all) of the stocks Herb Greenburg has been bashing as "shorting via CANSLIM" candidates. I think you could make a case for shorting something like Salton right now. It had (has?) pretty darn good numbers, is one heck of a risky long due to their reliance on one product line to make their sales comparisons, and their propensity to issue blowhard press releases with all sorts of forward looking statements that appear to have no other purpose than to bolster their share price. ACTN did this for a few months after it broke down (issued outright lies in some cases), and that was one heck of a good short signal. MANU I believe also had great CANSLIM numbers and then broke down almost to the ultimate bottom (like under 6!) from a high of about 100. I have no idea why that happened, but it has been mentioned as an ideal technical short that gave all the right signals on TSC. Here's hoping this sparks some intelligent, "shorting the WON way" type discussion. At 03:46 PM 3/8/00 -0800, you wrote: >Walter, > >How does one subscribe to Elder's intermittent >newsletter? Didn't see a snail or e-mail address. > >His analogy of being drunk or sober is good, very >good. Also, picking your battles. I've pushed >myself into scenes, got caught up in the fight >and usually lost, barely saving my skin. Now, >I try to watch the battle, join the side that's >winning and get out before the battle is over. > >Thanks, Walter. > >Shorting is part of investing. I'd like to >see it discussed on this board. I know Tom >and others are more against it than for it >because of the risks involved. I'd rather >address it, learn more since I suspect there >are people on this board who short, but >may feel it isn't a topic to be explored here. > >My opinion. >Mary > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mikelu" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] splits and stops Date: 08 Mar 2000 22:00:43 -0800 Burned again, this time on MOLX. I just found out from Schwab that if I enter/change a sell stop after 4:00PM Eastern, it's assumed to be a post-split price if the stock is splitting the next day. I didn't know this, and have been burned by it on the recent splits of MOLX, VRTS, and ITWO. The stocks were sold the day of the split, as the price opened far below stop. Does anyone have a broker that would do a better job of handling sell stops? I would expect that as I enter or modify a sell stop order, I'd get some notification that the stock is splitting and that I should make sure my stop price reflects this. Thanks, Mike -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of mikelu Sent: Monday, March 06, 2000 10:41 PM I'm using Schwab and placing hard sell stops. When a stock is splitting the next trading day, it seems there's a small window of time after Schwab has updated existing sell stop orders to their post-split price and quantity, but you can modify the order unaware of the split. This caused me to sell VRTS today. A consolation is that I sold only the pre-split quantity, so I will still own 80 shares tomorrow. Mike - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mikelu" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] splits and stops Date: 09 Mar 2000 13:32:32 -0800 Has anyone else using hard sell stops had this happen to them? Schwab says it isn't their fault - the market maker adjusts the orders in the book, not them. Mike -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of mikelu Sent: Wednesday, March 08, 2000 10:01 PM Burned again, this time on MOLX. I just found out from Schwab that if I enter/change a sell stop after 4:00PM Eastern, it's assumed to be a post-split price if the stock is splitting the next day. I didn't know this, and have been burned by it on the recent splits of MOLX, VRTS, and ITWO. The stocks were sold the day of the split, as the price opened far below stop. Does anyone have a broker that would do a better job of handling sell stops? I would expect that as I enter or modify a sell stop order, I'd get some notification that the stock is splitting and that I should make sure my stop price reflects this. Thanks, Mike -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of mikelu Sent: Monday, March 06, 2000 10:41 PM I'm using Schwab and placing hard sell stops. When a stock is splitting the next trading day, it seems there's a small window of time after Schwab has updated existing sell stop orders to their post-split price and quantity, but you can modify the order unaware of the split. This caused me to sell VRTS today. A consolation is that I sold only the pre-split quantity, so I will still own 80 shares tomorrow. Mike - - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] splits and stops Date: 09 Mar 2000 13:48:42 -0800 I change my stops the morning after the split. I think that the couple hours' exposure you have by not changing it the night before is acceptable. I guess I can't see where Schwab is in the wrong here; if you halve your stop on the split day (splits are enacted at the close of trading on the preannounced split date, AFAIK), what else are they supposed to do, call you up and asked what you "really" wanted to do? You changed the stop after the stock had closed for trading on the preannounced split day. It opened the next day at the split price. Why do it more than once if you were burned the first time anyway? On 01:32 PM 3/9/00 , mikelu Said: >Has anyone else using hard sell stops had this happen to them? Schwab says >it isn't their fault - the market maker adjusts the orders in the book, not >them. > >Mike > >-----Original Message----- >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of mikelu >Sent: Wednesday, March 08, 2000 10:01 PM >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] splits and stops > > >Burned again, this time on MOLX. > >I just found out from Schwab that if I enter/change a sell stop after 4:00PM >Eastern, it's assumed to be a post-split price if the stock is splitting the >next day. I didn't know this, and have been burned by it on the recent >splits of MOLX, VRTS, and ITWO. The stocks were sold the day of the split, >as the price opened far below stop. > >Does anyone have a broker that would do a better job of handling sell stops? >I would expect that as I enter or modify a sell stop order, I'd get some >notification that the stock is splitting and that I should make sure my stop >price reflects this. > >Thanks, > >Mike > >-----Original Message----- >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of mikelu >Sent: Monday, March 06, 2000 10:41 PM >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: [CANSLIM] splits and stops > > >I'm using Schwab and placing hard sell stops. > >When a stock is splitting the next trading day, it seems there's a small >window of time after Schwab has updated existing sell stop orders to their >post-split price and quantity, but you can modify the order unaware of the >split. This caused me to sell VRTS today. A consolation is that I sold only >the pre-split quantity, so I will still own 80 shares tomorrow. > >Mike > > >- > > >- > > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Shorting and Canslim and Elder Date: 09 Mar 2000 21:57:42 -0500 Hi Mary, Go to www.elder.com and right on the home page you will find a grey "Subscribe" button. Click on it and send the email that comes up. The end of your second paragraph is one of the best and most succinct descriptions of successful investing that I have read. You are right that there are a number of people on this board who like to play both sides of the market. I know from the private email that some would like to discuss it publicly, but are afraid to post about it. The difficulty is that WON does not go into sufficient detail in his book. And I agree with Tim that Non-Canslim shorting should not really be discussed on this list. That is why I refused to disect my "old economy" shorts (which were all covered and closed by Wednesday anyway). Nevertheless WON's senior people certainly engage in the short side and do so very successfully. If the US markets ever do the full Nikkei-type 1990's implosion, then shorting will be the only way to make real money. I for one want to be ready. If and when I develop some specific *Canslim* shorting picks I will probably post them. Walter Mary Keener wrote: > Walter, > > How does one subscribe to Elder's intermittent > newsletter? Didn't see a snail or e-mail address. > > His analogy of being drunk or sober is good, very > good. Also, picking your battles. I've pushed > myself into scenes, got caught up in the fight > and usually lost, barely saving my skin. Now, > I try to watch the battle, join the side that's > winning and get out before the battle is over. > > Thanks, Walter. > > Shorting is part of investing. I'd like to > see it discussed on this board. I know Tom > and others are more against it than for it > because of the risks involved. I'd rather > address it, learn more since I suspect there > are people on this board who short, but > may feel it isn't a topic to be explored here. > > My opinion. > Mary > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] loss cutting Date: 09 Mar 2000 21:58:21 -0700 I use the closing approach, but give the stock a chance to move above the 8% the next morning. I've seen too many good bounces about 15-30 minutes after a very weak open to put in sells while the market is closed. This approach seems better to me, but to be honest, my purchases the last few months haven't tested it very much. At 11:54 AM 3/8/00 -0500, you wrote: >I am somewhat confused as to how WON suggests implementing his loss cutting >technique. > >Does he recommend to sell AS SOON as the stock touches -8% intraday ? > >Or is when the closing price touches -8% ? > >Using #2, if a stock hits -8% closing, you can sell it the following day a >little higher, and also you will be somewhat protected against intraday >volatilities... > >What are you thoughts on this? > >Thanks > >______________________________________________ >FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com >Sign up at http://www.mail.com?sr=mc.mk.mcm.tag001 > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mikelu" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] splits and stops Date: 09 Mar 2000 21:42:32 -0800 I first noticed the problem when VRTS was sold Monday. I had adjusted the stop on Saturday. While discussing it with Schwab, I then noticed that I also sold ITWO on 2/18. I have been managing 50+ positions while ignoring the splits calendar. While those two trades were being looked into, I thought the problem was that I had updated the stops after 2:00AM Pacific time. That same Monday I had bought MOLX, and entered my initial sell stop. I didn't know it was splitting either. So, I first realized there was a problem on Monday, when it had already affected two of my positions. I didn't fully (I hope) understand the situation until after MOLX was sold Tuesday and it was explained by Schwab. Where I think Schwab has some fault is that I called them Saturday to place my sell stop order on VRTS because the online system wouldn't let me place it where I wanted. They told me the discrepancy in price was because of after hours trading, not because of a stock split. After the fact, while discussing VRTS and ITWO with them, I got the explanation that their system had correctly adjusted my VRTS sell stop, and I overrode it. They still never said that changing the order after 4:00PM I'd have the same problem. Obviously, I need to look at the splits calendar before entering or modifying any sell stop order. I thought that the orders were being handled in a more logical way. To me, entering a sell stop order of $80 on a $100 stock that will be $50 in the morning is an error situation that could be caught by software. But then, I'm a computer programmer. Thanks for your reply, Mike -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher Sent: Thursday, March 09, 2000 1:49 PM I change my stops the morning after the split. I think that the couple hours' exposure you have by not changing it the night before is acceptable. I guess I can't see where Schwab is in the wrong here; if you halve your stop on the split day (splits are enacted at the close of trading on the preannounced split date, AFAIK), what else are they supposed to do, call you up and asked what you "really" wanted to do? You changed the stop after the stock had closed for trading on the preannounced split day. It opened the next day at the split price. Why do it more than once if you were burned the first time anyway? On 01:32 PM 3/9/00 , mikelu Said: >Has anyone else using hard sell stops had this happen to them? Schwab says >it isn't their fault - the market maker adjusts the orders in the book, not >them. > >Mike > >-----Original Message----- >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of mikelu >Sent: Wednesday, March 08, 2000 10:01 PM >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] splits and stops > > >Burned again, this time on MOLX. > >I just found out from Schwab that if I enter/change a sell stop after 4:00PM >Eastern, it's assumed to be a post-split price if the stock is splitting the >next day. I didn't know this, and have been burned by it on the recent >splits of MOLX, VRTS, and ITWO. The stocks were sold the day of the split, >as the price opened far below stop. > >Does anyone have a broker that would do a better job of handling sell stops? >I would expect that as I enter or modify a sell stop order, I'd get some >notification that the stock is splitting and that I should make sure my stop >price reflects this. > >Thanks, > >Mike > >-----Original Message----- >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of mikelu >Sent: Monday, March 06, 2000 10:41 PM >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: [CANSLIM] splits and stops > > >I'm using Schwab and placing hard sell stops. > >When a stock is splitting the next trading day, it seems there's a small >window of time after Schwab has updated existing sell stop orders to their >post-split price and quantity, but you can modify the order unaware of the >split. This caused me to sell VRTS today. A consolation is that I sold only >the pre-split quantity, so I will still own 80 shares tomorrow. > >Mike > > >- > > >- > > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Matt Robinson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] splits and stops Date: 10 Mar 2000 01:23:33 -0500 I am sure that many others will respond with lengthy much more organized messages about this but............I would recommend you not have that many positions. First, I think in general a more concentrated portfolio will beat a diversified portfolio. Who knows, with 50 positons you might not even be that diversified as a some things trade with a high correlation. Second, if you can't handle it, then you shouldn't do it. I think that it is a good general rule with investing long term and trading. If you don't know why you own something (I am not saying you don't), then you probably shouldn't own it. If a loss pains you, take it and move on. If you don't know your investing goals, stop investing and define them. If you can't keep up with some of your positions, liquidate some of them. I would think that SCH could easily implement a system preventing such (ie by making people with stops similar to yours verify them); however, I don't think you should look to blame them. It is not their responsibility to say, "You know XYZ is splitting at close, do you still want this stop?" I think that one will find the greatest returns by remaining diligent about his or her investments (note: I don't mean impatient). Matt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, March 10, 2000 12:42 AM > I first noticed the problem when VRTS was sold Monday. I had adjusted the > stop on Saturday. While discussing it with Schwab, I then noticed that I > also sold ITWO on 2/18. I have been managing 50+ positions while ignoring > the splits calendar. While those two trades were being looked into, I > thought the problem was that I had updated the stops after 2:00AM Pacific > time. > > That same Monday I had bought MOLX, and entered my initial sell stop. I > didn't know it was splitting either. > > So, I first realized there was a problem on Monday, when it had already > affected two of my positions. I didn't fully (I hope) understand the > situation until after MOLX was sold Tuesday and it was explained by Schwab. > > Where I think Schwab has some fault is that I called them Saturday to place > my sell stop order on VRTS because the online system wouldn't let me place > it where I wanted. They told me the discrepancy in price was because of > after hours trading, not because of a stock split. > > After the fact, while discussing VRTS and ITWO with them, I got the > explanation that their system had correctly adjusted my VRTS sell stop, and > I overrode it. They still never said that changing the order after 4:00PM > I'd have the same problem. > > Obviously, I need to look at the splits calendar before entering or > modifying any sell stop order. I thought that the orders were being handled > in a more logical way. To me, entering a sell stop order of $80 on a $100 > stock that will be $50 in the morning is an error situation that could be > caught by software. But then, I'm a computer programmer. > > Thanks for your reply, > > Mike > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher > Sent: Thursday, March 09, 2000 1:49 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] splits and stops > > > I change my stops the morning after the split. I think that the couple > hours' exposure you have by not changing it the night before is acceptable. > I guess I can't see where Schwab is in the wrong here; if you halve your > stop on the split day (splits are enacted at the close of trading on the > preannounced split date, AFAIK), what else are they supposed to do, call > you up and asked what you "really" wanted to do? You changed the stop after > the stock had closed for trading on the preannounced split day. It opened > the next day at the split price. Why do it more than once if you were > burned the first time anyway? > > On 01:32 PM 3/9/00 , mikelu Said: > >Has anyone else using hard sell stops had this happen to them? Schwab says > >it isn't their fault - the market maker adjusts the orders in the book, not > >them. > > > >Mike > > > >-----Original Message----- > >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of mikelu > >Sent: Wednesday, March 08, 2000 10:01 PM > >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] splits and stops > > > > > >Burned again, this time on MOLX. > > > >I just found out from Schwab that if I enter/change a sell stop after > 4:00PM > >Eastern, it's assumed to be a post-split price if the stock is splitting > the > >next day. I didn't know this, and have been burned by it on the recent > >splits of MOLX, VRTS, and ITWO. The stocks were sold the day of the split, > >as the price opened far below stop. > > > >Does anyone have a broker that would do a better job of handling sell > stops? > >I would expect that as I enter or modify a sell stop order, I'd get some > >notification that the stock is splitting and that I should make sure my > stop > >price reflects this. > > > >Thanks, > > > >Mike > > > >-----Original Message----- > >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of mikelu > >Sent: Monday, March 06, 2000 10:41 PM > >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >Subject: [CANSLIM] splits and stops > > > > > >I'm using Schwab and placing hard sell stops. > > > >When a stock is splitting the next trading day, it seems there's a small > >window of time after Schwab has updated existing sell stop orders to their > >post-split price and quantity, but you can modify the order unaware of the > >split. This caused me to sell VRTS today. A consolation is that I sold only > >the pre-split quantity, so I will still own 80 shares tomorrow. > > > >Mike > > > > > >- > > > > > >- > > > > > >- > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > > - > > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Luke Lang Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] splits and stops Date: 10 Mar 2000 00:13:55 -0800 (PST) Matt, I don't quite agree with you, not because I think you are wrong, but because I think there are other factors a work that should decide whether a person should hold a concentrated or diversified portfolio. I will use myself as an example. When I started investing, I bought O'Neil's book, subscribed to IBD, and attended his seminar. I remember him saying that if you had $100K, you should hold 4 to 5 stocks. So, I went that route and bought a bunch of a few stocks. After a few years, I found that I don't have the guts (or personality if you are talking about someone else) to "bet big." I would get stopped out, take profit on pullbacks, etc. You might say that I wasn't practicing CANSLIM properly and I wouldn't argue with you. Nevertheless, I just didn't make money. Now, I'm much more "diversified." I sleep much better at night. Many days, I don't even check my stocks while the market is open. I do check them almost every night. Of course, I don't hit home runs, but 3 or 4 singles will get me a run. A few strike outs here and there won't hurt me either. One discussion a few weeks ago talked about holding for longer term. When I was "concentrated," I never even had a double. Now, more than half of my holdings are over a year, and I have quite a few double, triple, and even quadruple and more. I think the key is finding a style that you are comfortable with. Sometimes, buying and forgetting may not be too bad. Best regards, Luke Lang --- Matt Robinson wrote: > I am sure that many others will respond with > lengthy much more organized > messages about this but............I would recommend > you not have that many > positions. First, I think in general a more > concentrated portfolio will beat > a diversified portfolio. > > Who knows, with 50 positons you might not even > be that diversified as a > some things trade with a high correlation. Second, > if you can't handle it, > then you shouldn't do it. I think that it is a good > general rule with > investing long term and trading. If you don't know > why you own something (I > am not saying you don't), then you probably > shouldn't own it. If a loss > pains you, take it and move on. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] splits and stops Date: 10 Mar 2000 05:20:02 -0500 Hi Mike, By definition, and exchange rules, a sell stop of any kind (loss or limit) must be entered when the market is above the stop price. Thus, an $80 stop could only be correctly accepted by Schwab if the market price was still considered to be at $100. That being the case, when the "market price" was adjusted, so should the sell stop price. Schwab is liable, if you want to push it. They can't have it both ways. If they were treating the stock as already at $50, then they could have only accepted a simple sell limit, and would have to reject any sell stop over $50. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, March 10, 2000 12:42 AM To me, entering a sell stop order of $80 on a $100 stock that will be $50 in the morning is an error situation that could be caught by software. But then, I'm a computer programmer. Thanks for your reply, Mike - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Matt Robinson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] splits and stops Date: 10 Mar 2000 10:03:01 -0500 If you read my message, I said that i would not recommend that he hold 50+ positions as it is difficult to know as much as you should about that many. There is a lot of in between in the 4-5 that O'Neill recommends and the 50 he holds. I also said that a more concentrated portfolio will be a diversified portfolio and meant that with all other things being equal. Later, I said that one shouldn't do if they don't feel right about it. This includes you and the concentrated portfolio you once held. If you can't sleep with piece of mind because of investments, then you should look at changing the way you invest. Which you did. I was not saying to him, "Trim your portfolio to 4 to 5 stocks." I was saying several different things. A, 50+ positions is probably way too many. B, all other things being equal a concentrated portfolio will be a diversified portfolio (this is a big if granted and different people have different definitions of each). C, if something about investing pains you, don't do/sell it/stop and reevaluate. Your sanity and health is more important than your particular investments. Thus, I would have made the recommendation to you, when you couldn't sleep, to change what you were doing. Regrads Matt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, March 10, 2000 3:13 AM > Matt, > > I don't quite agree with you, not because I think you > are wrong, but because I think there are other factors > a work that should decide whether a person should hold > a concentrated or diversified portfolio. > > I will use myself as an example. When I started > investing, I bought O'Neil's book, subscribed to IBD, > and attended his seminar. I remember him saying that > if you had $100K, you should hold 4 to 5 stocks. So, > I went that route and bought a bunch of a few stocks. > After a few years, I found that I don't have the guts > (or personality if you are talking about someone else) > to "bet big." I would get stopped out, take profit on > pullbacks, etc. You might say that I wasn't > practicing CANSLIM properly and I wouldn't argue with > you. Nevertheless, I just didn't make money. > > Now, I'm much more "diversified." I sleep much better > at night. Many days, I don't even check my stocks > while the market is open. I do check them almost > every night. Of course, I don't hit home runs, but 3 > or 4 singles will get me a run. A few strike outs > here and there won't hurt me either. > > One discussion a few weeks ago talked about holding > for longer term. When I was "concentrated," I never > even had a double. Now, more than half of my holdings > are over a year, and I have quite a few double, > triple, and even quadruple and more. I think the key > is finding a style that you are comfortable with. > Sometimes, buying and forgetting may not be too bad. > > Best regards, > Luke Lang > > --- Matt Robinson wrote: > > I am sure that many others will respond with > > lengthy much more organized > > messages about this but............I would recommend > > you not have that many > > positions. First, I think in general a more > > concentrated portfolio will beat > > a diversified portfolio. > > > > Who knows, with 50 positons you might not even > > be that diversified as a > > some things trade with a high correlation. Second, > > if you can't handle it, > > then you shouldn't do it. I think that it is a good > > general rule with > > investing long term and trading. If you don't know > > why you own something (I > > am not saying you don't), then you probably > > shouldn't own it. If a loss > > pains you, take it and move on. > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. > http://im.yahoo.com > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Matt Robinson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] splits and stops Date: 10 Mar 2000 11:03:17 -0500 Sorry didn't proofread............ > If you read my message, I said that i would not recommend that he hold 50+ > positions as it is difficult to know as much as you should about that many. > There is a lot of in between in the 4-5 that O'Neill recommends and the 50 > he holds. I also said that a more concentrated portfolio will be a > diversified portfolio and meant that with all other things being equal. > Later, I said that one shouldn't do ****it**** if they don't feel right about it. This > includes you and the concentrated portfolio you once held. If you can't > sleep with piece of mind because of investments, then you should look at > changing the way you invest. Which you did. I was not saying to him, "Trim > your portfolio to 4 to 5 stocks." I was saying several different things. > > A, 50+ positions is probably way too many. B, all other things being > equal a concentrated portfolio will ****be**** a diversified portfolio (this is a > big if granted and different people have different definitions of each). C, > if something about investing pains you, don't do/sell it/stop and > reevaluate. Your sanity and health is more important than your particular > investments. > > Thus, I would have made the recommendation to you, when you couldn't > sleep, to change what you were doing. > > Regrads > Matt > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Luke Lang > To: > Sent: Friday, March 10, 2000 3:13 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] splits and stops > > > > Matt, > > > > I don't quite agree with you, not because I think you > > are wrong, but because I think there are other factors > > a work that should decide whether a person should hold > > a concentrated or diversified portfolio. > > > > I will use myself as an example. When I started > > investing, I bought O'Neil's book, subscribed to IBD, > > and attended his seminar. I remember him saying that > > if you had $100K, you should hold 4 to 5 stocks. So, > > I went that route and bought a bunch of a few stocks. > > After a few years, I found that I don't have the guts > > (or personality if you are talking about someone else) > > to "bet big." I would get stopped out, take profit on > > pullbacks, etc. You might say that I wasn't > > practicing CANSLIM properly and I wouldn't argue with > > you. Nevertheless, I just didn't make money. > > > > Now, I'm much more "diversified." I sleep much better > > at night. Many days, I don't even check my stocks > > while the market is open. I do check them almost > > every night. Of course, I don't hit home runs, but 3 > > or 4 singles will get me a run. A few strike outs > > here and there won't hurt me either. > > > > One discussion a few weeks ago talked about holding > > for longer term. When I was "concentrated," I never > > even had a double. Now, more than half of my holdings > > are over a year, and I have quite a few double, > > triple, and even quadruple and more. I think the key > > is finding a style that you are comfortable with. > > Sometimes, buying and forgetting may not be too bad. > > > > Best regards, > > Luke Lang > > > > --- Matt Robinson wrote: > > > I am sure that many others will respond with > > > lengthy much more organized > > > messages about this but............I would recommend > > > you not have that many > > > positions. First, I think in general a more > > > concentrated portfolio will beat > > > a diversified portfolio. > > > > > > Who knows, with 50 positons you might not even > > > be that diversified as a > > > some things trade with a high correlation. Second, > > > if you can't handle it, > > > then you shouldn't do it. I think that it is a good > > > general rule with > > > investing long term and trading. If you don't know > > > why you own something (I > > > am not saying you don't), then you probably > > > shouldn't own it. If a loss > > > pains you, take it and move on. > > __________________________________________________ > > Do You Yahoo!? > > Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. > > http://im.yahoo.com > > > > - > > > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. > http://im.yahoo.com > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] On the record - maybe no Fed Rate Hike?? Date: 11 Mar 2000 11:23:22 -0500 Besides, having seen zilch from the CANSLIM group, wanted to send a test message anyway. I went into work way late today, and took the evening off as well (wow, so that's what an eight hour work day is like, neat!) so had lots of time to do some catchup reading, and thinking. While if I had to decide right now, early on Saturday, 3/11/00, I would bet on a 25 basis pt hike at the March FOMC meeting. But if I could hedge my bets and guess at what they may do if the data in the next week or so continues like the past several weeks, then I think we might have even a 50-50 shot at no hike. Some of the latest data, such as the new jobs report, are definitely encouraging. The Productivity report was likewise a positive surprise. There is some inventory building, but not clear to me if it's increased manufacturing activity, or a reduced consumer spending;. Durable goods orders were quite strong, but still we don't get evidence of inflation. And the inflationary effects of energy from the rising price of crude oil actually helps slow down the economy. Consumers get the effect directly and quickly in the price paid at the gas pump. They also get it less directly, and over a larger time frame, in the cost of goods and home energy consumption (since utilities can't change rates as quickly as airlines). Speaking of the airlines, they very successfully implemented a fuel price related surcharge some months ago. Now Continential kicks off another actual fare hike for the same reason. No question the airlines are hurting, fuel makes up an extraordinary part of their operating expenses. But fare hikes, if successful, impact consumers far beyond the cost of the plane ticket. They also give the impression of rising prices overall, and that can change sentiment rapidly. This holds true even if it's more perception than reality. And there continue to be mergers, with resulting layoffs. I know I will be affected by the merger of my bank with Deutsch Bank, tho since I don't know to what extent I can only try to cut expenses now and await my fate. And since the oil producing cartel will apparently not confirm a significant opening of the valves until 3/27, it's too late for the FOMC decision making. It's pretty likely that the valves will be opened somewhat, but unlikely to such an extent that prices fall back to where there were several months ago. I suspect that they will try to hold prices more or less where they are now, so little relief likely. The instant wealth effect of the stock market continues to aid in increasing consumer spending, at least for those concentrated in NASDAQ stocks. But the old economy stocks are seriously suffering, probably more from neglect and abandonment than from true fundies. Still, it helps offset the inflationary aspects for those that didn't switch into tech stocks. Gold has returned to its bearish behaviour, but platinum has exploded due to limited supplies from Russia in the midst of record auto production. On the currency front, the Euro remains weak, dollar more or less neutral, and the yen showing surprising strength despite the probable technical recession of Japan. Apparently the thinking is that the Japanese economy is about to improve sharply. And all without economic or banking reforms! Go figure. So while the economy is not slowing as fast as the Feds desire, the effects of continued high energy costs will help. More significantly, inflation is still not rearing its ugly head, and recent reports suggest it's not a threat right now. Add to that that the Feds have a "history" of resting between rate hikes, rarely raising two meetings in a row, and often delaying even longer, and I think there's a fair chance of no hike in March. Problem with that is, the market is expecting a hike. Given no hike, the "threat" of a future hike will remain over the market. I suspect that no hike could actually hurt the market more than a 25 basis pt hike. Time will tell, just some random thoughts. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 11 Mar 2000 17:27:48 -0500 Looking back at a number of charts today, I could only wish for some more of the tight and long bases we saw back in the August-October 99 period. If you picked the right stocks, and simply held onto them, you have now enjoyed several hundred percent gains in well under a year. Examples I saw include the first five stocks on this week's list: EMLX (4); NTAP (6); INFY (7); AMCC (4); ITWO (5). The number represents the hundreds of percent gain possible from a buy in that time period to today's value. These were just the first five stocks on the list, I saw many more examples as I progressed thru the list. I don't know how many of them might have qualified as CANSLIM back then, but they do qualify today. Today's "bases" are, for the most part, far more volatile and hard to read. Anyway, here's what I gleaned from today's list (as always B# means a base of that many weeks, IMHO): CREE - B1+ ARMHY - B2 VRTS - B1 after a split BOBJ - B1 CLFY - B5 MCRL - failed B/O from B2 CMVT - B1 DIIG - low vol b/o from B1 SIVB - B1 SMTC - 2 failed b/o now gives it a B8 SNRA - B1 DRAM - B1 FLEX - B/O from B1 XLNX - B2 BBRC - B2 MUSE - B1 ORBK - B1 PRLX - B4 RMD - B1+ CSCO - B4+ BRCM - B1 DIO - B1 ASF - B2 SUNW - B4 SBL - B1 ADTN - B1 INDYY - short base on base AVRT - B5+ SMTF - B1+ BRKT - B2 MMCN - B1 AMAT - rising B3 EKT - base on base ESIO - B/O, buyable but low vol Enjoy, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jesus Canal Subject: [CANSLIM] HAUP: Nice cup with handle Date: 11 Mar 2000 23:35:19 -0800 Hauppauge Digital Inc. is building a nice cup with handle and it seems it is ready to breakout. Unfortunately, Friday's volume was only 1.39 times ADV. HAUP 99 93 AAA Any thoughts ? Thanks, Jesus - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HAUP: Nice cup with handle Date: 12 Mar 2000 06:56:42 -0500 Excellent pick, Jesus, everything about this one looks like good CANSLIM. I would prefer to see the handle trade in a much tighter range, with the same declining volume. So far the handle is pretty unreliable as a timing indicator. Note that DGO shows ADV at 333,000, thus Friday's volume was only 1.14 times ADV. I am disappointed at myself in missing this on the DGO list, thanks for catching it. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, March 12, 2000 2:35 AM Hauppauge Digital Inc. is building a nice cup with handle and it seems it is ready to breakout. Unfortunately, Friday's volume was only 1.39 times ADV. HAUP 99 93 AAA Any thoughts ? Thanks, Jesus - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] DSPG Date: 12 Mar 2000 09:25:50 -0700 As I am working through my Leaders List update today, I noticed that DSPG seems to have broken out of a 6 week base on Friday. The volume looks a little low, but I hadn't seen anyone mention this one. So I thought I would throw it out there in case someone was looking. (Note, I am fully invested right now in ETEK, QLGC, SEBL, RSAS, so I won't be buying this one.) IBD numbers are: 89/92/AAA Telecom Equip group (#6) Sponsorship rating B It was also listed in Friday's monthly update of "New Buys of Top-Rated Mutual Funds". This is a list of the Top 130 stocks being purchased by A+, A, and A- rated Mutual Funds. It shows DSPG with 10 funds buying $85 Mil. BTW, I think this list is a great place to look for new candidate stocks, and it is one of the places I look for new additions to my potential leaders list. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HAUP: Nice cup with handle Date: 12 Mar 2000 08:47:06 -0800 My impressions : very loose handle, left side of cup was formed by a blowoff top, did not clear the high, the vol as you say was less than spectacular. Worth watching on Monday. Vol pattern during the cup is very nice. At 11:35 PM 3/11/00 -0800, you wrote: >Hauppauge Digital Inc. is building a nice cup with handle and >it seems it is ready to breakout. Unfortunately, Friday's volume >was only 1.39 times ADV. > > HAUP 99 93 AAA > >Any thoughts ? Thanks, > >Jesus Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Alexander T Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: DSPG Date: 12 Mar 2000 14:33:23 -0500 (EST) Tom, Could you please explain why you consider this to be an "excellent" pick as far as timing goes? I see this as something that matches CANSLIM very well, but I have a problem with the length of the base. WON and IBD mention numerous times that bases under 7 weeks should be dismissed as beeing too risky. Am I just interpreting it this way, and does WON allow for bases to be only 4 weeks long in certain cases? I can see many examples today were stocks resumed their advances after consolidating just for 4 weeks, so I would like to know if my interpretation of WON on this is not correct. Thanks ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com?sr=mc.mk.mcm.tag001 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: DSPG Date: 12 Mar 2000 16:42:42 -0500 I consider it to have excellent CANSLIM data (RS, EPS, A/D, GRS, etc). Chartwise, the handle is ranging way too much, even on declining volume, to be a good indicator and should be viewed with caution regarding timing the breakout. I don't consider the chart excellent CANSLIM, both due the sloppy handle, and the shortness of the base (tho a 5-7 week base in this market is not likely on a good stock). The only stocks I see with long bases (over 2-3 weeks) are the low priced small and micro caps. While a 6-8 week base is desirable, no leader, or potential leader, is sitting there that long in this market. Thus, if you wait for that, you will remain in cash in this mkt. If you want to be invested now, you must hedge on that rule, and take a higher risk (so use a quicker trigger finger if a breakout or base fails). Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, March 12, 2000 2:33 PM Tom, Could you please explain why you consider this to be an "excellent" pick as far as timing goes? I see this as something that matches CANSLIM very well, but I have a problem with the length of the base. WON and IBD mention numerous times that bases under 7 weeks should be dismissed as beeing too risky. Am I just interpreting it this way, and does WON allow for bases to be only 4 weeks long in certain cases? I can see many examples today were stocks resumed their advances after consolidating just for 4 weeks, so I would like to know if my interpretation of WON on this is not correct. Thanks ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com?sr=mc.mk.mcm.tag001 - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Hugh Fader Subject: [CANSLIM] Another O'Neil Interview Date: 12 Mar 2000 18:08:11 -0500 I just ran across another William O'Neil interview on MarketWatch. Nothing new here, but he does reiterate the idea of buying companies with poor earnings but strong sales growth. Check out: http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/20000309/news/current/invest.htx?source=htx/http2_mw - Hugh - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Picks? Date: 12 Mar 2000 16:44:16 -0700 I know this is old news, but I was out of town, agree with Peter on this one - don't quite understand why you worry about a possible difference in price on a sell of an odd lot because it is not "represented to the market" (whatever that means). I think you should examine what you give up in excluding high priced stocks versus what you gain on better fills on the lower priced stocks you can buy in round lots. A few high priced stocks you have missed out on would be CTXS, SUNW, NOK, BRCD, JNPR, CMRC, INTC, BRCM, RFMD, etc. On 5 Mar 00, at 10:51, Tom Worley wrote: > It's just that I insist on diversification; always want to > buy multi hundred shares; and have limited funds to > purchase. If I were to buy, say 60 shares of xyz, and it > made a big move, I would either hold or sell it all. If I > owned several hundred shares, I would consider selling half, > and see where the stock would go in the future. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Peter D. Christiansen > To: > Sent: Sunday, March 05, 2000 9:56 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Picks? > > > Hi Tom, > > I'm curious what your aversion is to high priced stocks. I > bought an > odd lot of ARBA on 2/11. It is up over 57% in less than a > month. I > tend to think that the share price is irrelevant, except > that you are > more likely to get stopped out of a low priced issue. > > PDC > > Tom Worley wrote: > > > Hi Matt, > > > > I had not seen AMK before, looks interesting, tho above my > > price range. I already had KILN and SPEC on my watch list > > for some time, but haven't acted on either. I am not > > comfortable with the action on KILN at present. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > -- > Peter D Christiansen > Chiang Mai, > Thailand > > <*> "No man can have a right to impose an unchosen > obligation, an > unrewarded duty or an involuntary servitude on another man. > There can be > no such thing as the right to enslave." -- "Man's Rights," > The Virtue of > Selfishness <*> > > > > - > > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: inderjit singh Subject: [CANSLIM] asian flu Date: 12 Mar 2000 22:38:34 -0500 Why the world markets affect us so much despite the fact that us econoty is doing so well. Asia is way down and may be we will see the asian flu again. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Japan Date: 13 Mar 2000 03:23:36 -0500 Well, it's official, Japan is back in a recession. GDP for the latest quarter exceeded the estimate of a 1% drop, ending up down 1.4%. That is the second successive quarterly drop in GDP, so meets the definition of recession. Nikkei was down nearly 3%, rallied a little at the end. But many of the big cap stocks were limit down the entire session, so tomorrow could bring another sharp drop. Rest of Asis was down as well, and futures here looking like a sharp down opening in a few hours. It is too early yet to see how Europe is reacting. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] asian flu Date: 13 Mar 2000 03:46:25 -0500 Just as imports from Japan to the USA helped keep down inflation when the yen was weak, so too now are Japanese imports helping add to the cost of goods and overall spending with the yen strong against the dollar. And with US consumers showing little sign of spending within their income, or of slowing their spending, it just adds to the potential inflationary pressure that must be offset by increased productivity. And despite the recession now officially in Japan, there is no sign of economic reforms, lifting of trade restrictions, aggressive correction of banking corruption, etc. Without change, it is doubtful that the Japanese citizen will spend and consume even domestic goods comparable to US residents, much less start buying foreign made goods. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, March 12, 2000 10:38 PM Why the world markets affect us so much despite the fact that us econoty is doing so well. Asia is way down and may be we will see the asian flu again. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: asosis@ca.ibm.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: DRAM Date: 13 Mar 2000 13:53:25 -0500 Hi! I am a newbie to this method and am wondering if you have any thoughts on today's action of DRAM. Thank you. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Pritish Shah Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: DRAM Date: 13 Mar 2000 11:19:05 -0800 (PST) I believe this happened due to forward looking statements in the SEC filing. DRAM has increased its R&D and they don't seem to owe anything. They also seem to have increased their working capital by about 3 million or about 19-20%. I typically use CANSLIM to buy options (to great success --Thank You WON). I think this movement will create some options and that is when I am going to buy it. Regards, Pritish On Mon, 13 Mar 2000 asosis@ca.ibm.com wrote: > > > Hi! > > I am a newbie to this method and am wondering if you have any thoughts on > today's action of DRAM. > > Thank you. > > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: DRAM Date: 13 Mar 2000 14:06:56 -0700 DRAM was also featured in today's IBD in the "NASDAQ Stocks in the News" column. Ziggy Pritish Shah wrote: > I believe this happened due to forward looking statements in the SEC > filing. DRAM has increased its R&D and they don't seem to owe > anything. They also seem to have increased their working capital by about > 3 million or about 19-20%. > > I typically use CANSLIM to buy options (to great success --Thank You > WON). I think this movement will create some options and that is when I am > going to buy it. > > Regards, > Pritish > > On Mon, 13 Mar 2000 asosis@ca.ibm.com wrote: > > > > > > > Hi! > > > > I am a newbie to this method and am wondering if you have any thoughts on > > today's action of DRAM. > > > > Thank you. > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: DSPG has no handle I can see BUT... Date: 13 Mar 2000 17:54:21 -0800 Since my last posting on this list was as a short-term bear, I thought it time to respond to a pertinent post about Digital Signal Processing Group [DSPG]. I'm now fully invested. My most recent purchase was (Monday 3/13/00) @ 53 (I used the forbidden limit order to get that nice price so even though it was down for the day I was up). I realize that the technical on this is a cup that still needs a handle. This is why I put in a limit below the previous day's close into a new high on higher volume--rationale: if a handle forms, it will necessarily have to drift back down through 53 before finishing a handle. I believe this strategy is forbidden by WON. The danger signal I get today is that DSPG closed DOWN on a 53% increase in volume whereas yesterday's new high was only on slightly higher volume (My consolation there is that I bought in below the day's close for a small profit so I have some breathing room before an 8% stop loss would be triggered). Another small worry is that over 51% of the float is already owned by institutions, but on the flip side, much of the professional analyst hype is that DSPG is very well positioned within the communications equipment industry yet highly undervalued at only 25 P/E. Another positive is that there are only about 25 million shares outstanding. I have strayed from technicals in my timing of purchases, however, I will probably use technicals to time sells. The only other individual issue I'm holding now is Cisco Systems [CSCO] which I got into @ 130 via a limit order on 2/28/00. DSPG is a bit of a gamble for me as far as buying too early, but I like the industry strength and other fundamentals. My biggest concern is still the overall market not the fundamentals of DSPG. Today's market drop seems to say that people are still uncertain to what lengths Greenspan may go to reign in the NASDAQ. Here's hoping it continues to climb a wall of worry. -Jim the-short-term-nervous-bull - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: DSPG has no handle I can see BUT... Date: 13 Mar 2000 15:21:13 -0800 Interesting time to buy. My sense is that the NASDAQ is overextended and needs to correct by about 10-15% before the March 21 FOMC meeting. The index "ran out of gas" in the 4750-4850 area, per one analyst I follow, and has since extended too far above that level. It would be very nice if it found support in that area but I don't see any on the chart. In fact the next support level I see is in the 4300 area on Feb 22. Now that would be a scary drop. I hit 3 15% trailing stops today including a purchase made last week, so that is my personal signal to stay in cash for now as my stops are taken out. Here's hoping I can stick with it with KEI and other small cap comms co's making new highs today! At 05:54 PM 3/13/00 -0800, you wrote: >Since my last posting on this list was as a short-term bear, I thought it >time to respond >to a pertinent post about Digital Signal Processing Group [DSPG]. I'm now >fully >invested. My most recent purchase was (Monday 3/13/00) @ 53 (I used the >forbidden limit >order to get that nice price so even though it was down for the day I was >up). I realize >that the technical on this is a cup that still needs a handle. This is >why I put in a >limit below the previous day's close into a new high on higher >volume--rationale: if a >handle forms, it will necessarily have to drift back down through 53 >before finishing a >handle. I believe this strategy is forbidden by WON. The danger signal I >get today is >that DSPG closed DOWN on a 53% increase in volume whereas yesterday's new >high was only on >slightly higher volume (My consolation there is that I bought in below the >day's close for >a small profit so I have some breathing room before an 8% stop loss would >be triggered). >Another small worry is that over 51% of the float is already owned by >institutions, but on >the flip side, much of the professional analyst hype is that DSPG is very >well positioned >within the communications equipment industry yet highly undervalued at >only 25 P/E. >Another positive is that there are only about 25 million shares outstanding. > >I have strayed from technicals in my timing of purchases, however, I will >probably use >technicals to time sells. The only other individual issue I'm holding now >is Cisco >Systems [CSCO] which I got into @ 130 via a limit order on 2/28/00. DSPG >is a bit of a >gamble for me as far as buying too early, but I like the industry strength >and other >fundamentals. My biggest concern is still the overall market not the >fundamentals of >DSPG. Today's market drop seems to say that people are still uncertain to >what lengths >Greenspan may go to reign in the NASDAQ. Here's hoping it continues to >climb a wall of >worry. > >-Jim the-short-term-nervous-bull > > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Robert Subject: [CANSLIM] Acc/Dis Numbers Date: 13 Mar 2000 16:28:25 -0500 Here are the latest Acc/Dis Numbers: Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 3/1/00 1818 2174 1155 1193 676 57% 10% 3/2/00 1929 2219 1122 1169 611 59% 9% 3/3/00 2005 2218 1102 1141 603 60% 9% 3/6/00 2040 2179 1141 1100 619 60% 9% 3/7/00 2102 2181 1160 1069 587 60% 8% 3/8/00 2127 2171 1127 1084 614 60% 9% 3/9/00 2104 2091 1134 1111 674 59% 9% 3/10/00 2048 2114 1146 1112 690 59% 10% 3/13/00 2112 2132 1146 1074 663 60% 9% Spreadsheet version: Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 3/1/00,1818,2174,1155,1193,676,57%,10%,, 3/2/00,1929,2219,1122,1169,611,59%,9%,, 3/3/00,2005,2218,1102,1141,603,60%,9%,, 3/6/00,2040,2179,1141,1100,619,60%,9%,, 3/7/00,2102,2181,1160,1069,587,60%,8%,, 3/8/00,2127,2171,1127,1084,614,60%,9% 3/9/00,2104,2091,1134,1111,674,59%,9% 3/10/00,2048,2114,1146,1112,690,59%,10% 3/13/00,2112,2132,1146,1074,663,60%,9% Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: DSPG has no handle I can see BUT... Date: 14 Mar 2000 04:29:46 -0500 I see speculative fever picking up at work, as money flows into small cap funds and penny stocks. Pleased to have 4 of my 5 small caps up for the day, with the fifth unchanged. I love bucking the trend! Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Monday, March 13, 2000 6:21 PM BUT... Interesting time to buy. My sense is that the NASDAQ is overextended and needs to correct by about 10-15% before the March 21 FOMC meeting. The index "ran out of gas" in the 4750-4850 area, per one analyst I follow, and has since extended too far above that level. It would be very nice if it found support in that area but I don't see any on the chart. In fact the next support level I see is in the 4300 area on Feb 22. Now that would be a scary drop. I hit 3 15% trailing stops today including a purchase made last week, so that is my personal signal to stay in cash for now as my stops are taken out. Here's hoping I can stick with it with KEI and other small cap comms co's making new highs today! At 05:54 PM 3/13/00 -0800, you wrote: >Since my last posting on this list was as a short-term bear, I thought it >time to respond >to a pertinent post about Digital Signal Processing Group [DSPG]. I'm now >fully >invested. My most recent purchase was (Monday 3/13/00) @ 53 (I used the >forbidden limit >order to get that nice price so even though it was down for the day I was >up). I realize >that the technical on this is a cup that still needs a handle. This is >why I put in a >limit below the previous day's close into a new high on higher >volume--rationale: if a >handle forms, it will necessarily have to drift back down through 53 >before finishing a >handle. I believe this strategy is forbidden by WON. The danger signal I >get today is >that DSPG closed DOWN on a 53% increase in volume whereas yesterday's new >high was only on >slightly higher volume (My consolation there is that I bought in below the >day's close for >a small profit so I have some breathing room before an 8% stop loss would >be triggered). >Another small worry is that over 51% of the float is already owned by >institutions, but on >the flip side, much of the professional analyst hype is that DSPG is very >well positioned >within the communications equipment industry yet highly undervalued at >only 25 P/E. >Another positive is that there are only about 25 million shares outstanding. > >I have strayed from technicals in my timing of purchases, however, I will >probably use >technicals to time sells. The only other individual issue I'm holding now >is Cisco >Systems [CSCO] which I got into @ 130 via a limit order on 2/28/00. DSPG >is a bit of a >gamble for me as far as buying too early, but I like the industry strength >and other >fundamentals. My biggest concern is still the overall market not the >fundamentals of >DSPG. Today's market drop seems to say that people are still uncertain to >what lengths >Greenspan may go to reign in the NASDAQ. Here's hoping it continues to >climb a wall of >worry. > >-Jim the-short-term-nervous-bull > > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mary Keener Subject: [CANSLIM] U.S. Economy Date: 14 Mar 2000 05:34:49 -0800 Here's an article from the Chicago Tribune on the past and present health of the economy. Mary http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/yourmoney/printedition/article/0,2669,SAV-0003140046,FF.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Wojnar" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] New investors' questions Date: 14 Mar 2000 19:43:16 -0500 Hi, I read your CANSLIM msg a few days ago and had time to use the big easy software you suggested. It is as good or better than some you pay for but I find I'm struggling with information overload. I'm trying to simplify my selection methods by sticking to the IBD as a primary source but it's nice to check out new ideas. Did you find any scans that related directly to CANSLIM? Thanks Denny - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Today's Opening Date: 15 Mar 2000 08:06:00 -0500 Look's like a strong opening, but after yesterday I wouldn't trust it too far. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's Opening Date: 15 Mar 2000 06:48:18 -0800 In a correction the market loves to head fake in the morning. At 08:06 AM 3/15/00 -0500, you wrote: >Look's like a strong opening, but after yesterday I wouldn't >trust it too far. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: owner-canslim@xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription Date: 15 Mar 2000 08:00:01 -0700 This is a twice monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are three remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group. 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. Or, 3) You can setup customized filters on your own mail client to sort the incoming canslim messages to its own folder. If you wish to modify your canslim subscription, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@lists.xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence? Date: 15 Mar 2000 12:47:12 -0800 Where is everyone at today? C'mon, let's hear it. I'll go first. I have 3 stocks left with 20 mins to go today. I got stopped out of 7 stocks the past few days. Two that I have left are recent breakouts (XETA and DIO). I expect to get stopped out of DIO with a 10% loss before the close. My stop on XETA is at support & I don't think it will be reached. For some reason QCOM is bucking the trend and hanging on right at my buy price. I want a nice clean "V" bottom here but not only in the NASDAQ. Why the DOW is up 350 today is a mystery to me. I have to think that this is a sucker rally on the NYSE. Here's one opinion I happen to agree with: >``The Nasdaq is now joining the three-month long pullback on the Dow Jones >industrial average and a break below the support at 4,750 means a new >support level will be formed somewhere between here and 4,000 for the >Nasdaq composite.'' > >Nasdaq dropped 7 percent in the past two sessions and fell another 1 >percent at the opening bell on Wednesday. The composite is near its 50-day >moving average after punching through the 5,000 mark just last week. > >Many analysts see Nasdaq's bottom between 4,400 and 4,500. Bottom line: I am 70% + cash and am not buying today. 6.5% loss so far since my all-time high last Thursday. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Pritish Shah Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence? Date: 15 Mar 2000 14:08:58 -0800 (PST) I think the support will come at the psychological level of 4500 and the next support (if 4500 breaks) will probably come at 4250. Looking at the market, I do think that we had reached a climactic top at 5132 because it was kind of euphoria when we crossed 5000. I did not have enough guts to be all cash but I had not ridden the wave up to 5000. Most of my stock purchases had happened at the 4500 level and I had not put in any money (until yesterday and day before yesterday) when I put my money in CREE, SDS and MSFT. My other stocks are ADIC, CTS and SUNW. I should be stopped out of CTS and CREE but I have hung on to them because I have kept a 20% loss rule rather than 7-8%. Regards, Pritish On Wed, 15 Mar 2000, Tim Fisher wrote: > Where is everyone at today? C'mon, let's hear it. I'll go first. I have 3 > stocks left with 20 mins to go today. I got stopped out of 7 stocks the > past few days. Two that I have left are recent breakouts (XETA and DIO). I > expect to get stopped out of DIO with a 10% loss before the close. My stop > on XETA is at support & I don't think it will be reached. For some reason > QCOM is bucking the trend and hanging on right at my buy price. I want a > nice clean "V" bottom here but not only in the NASDAQ. Why the DOW is up > 350 today is a mystery to me. I have to think that this is a sucker rally > on the NYSE. > > Here's one opinion I happen to agree with: > > >``The Nasdaq is now joining the three-month long pullback on the Dow Jones > >industrial average and a break below the support at 4,750 means a new > >support level will be formed somewhere between here and 4,000 for the > >Nasdaq composite.'' > > > >Nasdaq dropped 7 percent in the past two sessions and fell another 1 > >percent at the opening bell on Wednesday. The composite is near its 50-day > >moving average after punching through the 5,000 mark just last week. > > > >Many analysts see Nasdaq's bottom between 4,400 and 4,500. > Bottom line: I am 70% + cash and am not buying today. 6.5% loss so far > since my all-time high last Thursday. > > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence? Date: 15 Mar 2000 20:34:27 -0700 On 15 Mar 00, at 12:47, Tim Fisher wrote: > Where is everyone at today? C'mon, let's hear it. I'll go first. I have 3 > stocks left with 20 mins to go today. I got stopped out of 7 stocks the > past few days. Two that I have left are recent breakouts (XETA and DIO). I > expect to get stopped out of DIO with a 10% loss before the close. My stop > on XETA is at support & I don't think it will be reached. For some reason > QCOM is bucking the trend and hanging on right at my buy price. I want a > nice clean "V" bottom here but not only in the NASDAQ. Why the DOW is up > 350 today is a mystery to me. I have to think that this is a sucker rally > on the NYSE. Yeah, it is pretty quiet. Well, I got the *&^%& kicked out of me the last two days, I guess when things go up that far that fast, you are due for this sort of thing. I'm still up nicely, but less nicely than I was last Friday. My stocks definitely have a high Beta, I am going to try to hang in with most of them, one which pulled back 40 points in two days I finally bailed out of (CMRC). I am actually looking at this as a chance to pick some stuff up at lower prices, if some short bases form, if the nasdaq settles down for a bit. Hard to see things falling that much farther (I hope), I mean, the nasdaq in 3 days has corrected over 9%. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence? Date: 15 Mar 2000 21:11:28 -0700 I'm getting killed. After peaking at a 70% gain YTD late last week, I am still in all 4 stocks and more than 1/2 of the gain is gone. I may have to rethink the amount I'm willing to give up when multiple stocks move down together. I'm going to study the charts and make some decisions about 15 minutes or so after the open tomorrow. At best, I'll put in hard stops on at least 2 stocks. At worst, I'll sell all 4 at market. One good point is I'm moving some more funds from another investment into CANSLIM, and the new funds will put me about 66% in cash before any of the sells. I expect to have this cash this week, but I don't expect to be jumping into anything for a while. At 12:47 PM 3/15/00 -0800, you wrote: >Where is everyone at today? C'mon, let's hear it. I'll go first. I have 3 >stocks left with 20 mins to go today. I got stopped out of 7 stocks the >past few days. Two that I have left are recent breakouts (XETA and DIO). I >expect to get stopped out of DIO with a 10% loss before the close. My stop >on XETA is at support & I don't think it will be reached. For some reason >QCOM is bucking the trend and hanging on right at my buy price. I want a >nice clean "V" bottom here but not only in the NASDAQ. Why the DOW is up >350 today is a mystery to me. I have to think that this is a sucker rally >on the NYSE. > >Here's one opinion I happen to agree with: > >>``The Nasdaq is now joining the three-month long pullback on the Dow Jones >>industrial average and a break below the support at 4,750 means a new >>support level will be formed somewhere between here and 4,000 for the >>Nasdaq composite.'' >> >>Nasdaq dropped 7 percent in the past two sessions and fell another 1 >>percent at the opening bell on Wednesday. The composite is near its 50-day >>moving average after punching through the 5,000 mark just last week. >> >>Many analysts see Nasdaq's bottom between 4,400 and 4,500. >Bottom line: I am 70% + cash and am not buying today. 6.5% loss so far >since my all-time high last Thursday. > > >Tim Fisher >Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > >Tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW: http://OreRockOn.com >See naked fish and rocks! > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence? Date: 15 Mar 2000 23:42:33 -0500 Am 100% cash and have been since I covered my NYSE shorts. No pain. : ) Am taking this week and next week off to be with my five-year old boy who is on his March break from Kindergarten. Big gain. : ) Walter Tim Fisher wrote: > Where is everyone at today? C'mon, let's hear it. I'll go first. I have 3 > stocks left with 20 mins to go today. I got stopped out of 7 stocks the > past few days. Two that I have left are recent breakouts (XETA and DIO). I > expect to get stopped out of DIO with a 10% loss before the close. My stop > on XETA is at support & I don't think it will be reached. For some reason > QCOM is bucking the trend and hanging on right at my buy price. I want a > nice clean "V" bottom here but not only in the NASDAQ. Why the DOW is up > 350 today is a mystery to me. I have to think that this is a sucker rally > on the NYSE. > > Here's one opinion I happen to agree with: > > >``The Nasdaq is now joining the three-month long pullback on the Dow Jones > >industrial average and a break below the support at 4,750 means a new > >support level will be formed somewhere between here and 4,000 for the > >Nasdaq composite.'' > > > >Nasdaq dropped 7 percent in the past two sessions and fell another 1 > >percent at the opening bell on Wednesday. The composite is near its 50-day > >moving average after punching through the 5,000 mark just last week. > > > >Many analysts see Nasdaq's bottom between 4,400 and 4,500. > Bottom line: I am 70% + cash and am not buying today. 6.5% loss so far > since my all-time high last Thursday. > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ Distribution according to IBD Date: 15 Mar 2000 22:15:44 -0700 In today's (Wed) IBD, they noted that yesterday was the 2nd clear distribution day with a 3rd possible day (Friday had almost no gain on good volume) in the last 5 trading days. Looking at today's volume, we had a big move down on roughly equal volume to yesterday. This could be interpreted as a fourth distribution day in 6 trading days. This is very bearish from a CANSLIM perspective. I fully expect to either sell or put in relatively tight hard stops on at least 3 of my 4 positions very early in the morning. I'm hoping for a rally (even a sucker rally!!), to give me a little room above today's closes for those stops. Good luck all!!! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence? Date: 15 Mar 2000 21:43:13 -0800 Sold CMVT and CVG on Mon. Still holding RFMD, SEBL, and CAMP. Looking for a little bounce tommorrow from the bottom feeders. I know they're out there! (g) If not, I wont be pocketing the 100% profit (sic) I had with RFMD. It looks like +70% will suffice. One can't be greedy here. (g) It was a great run folks. Let's do this again! -Bill Triffet ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, March 15, 2000 12:47 PM > Where is everyone at today? C'mon, let's hear it. I'll go first. I have 3 > stocks left with 20 mins to go today. I got stopped out of 7 stocks the > past few days. Two that I have left are recent breakouts (XETA and DIO). I > expect to get stopped out of DIO with a 10% loss before the close. My stop > on XETA is at support & I don't think it will be reached. For some reason > QCOM is bucking the trend and hanging on right at my buy price. I want a > nice clean "V" bottom here but not only in the NASDAQ. Why the DOW is up > 350 today is a mystery to me. I have to think that this is a sucker rally > on the NYSE. > > Here's one opinion I happen to agree with: > > >``The Nasdaq is now joining the three-month long pullback on the Dow Jones > >industrial average and a break below the support at 4,750 means a new > >support level will be formed somewhere between here and 4,000 for the > >Nasdaq composite.'' > > > >Nasdaq dropped 7 percent in the past two sessions and fell another 1 > >percent at the opening bell on Wednesday. The composite is near its 50-day > >moving average after punching through the 5,000 mark just last week. > > > >Many analysts see Nasdaq's bottom between 4,400 and 4,500. > Bottom line: I am 70% + cash and am not buying today. 6.5% loss so far > since my all-time high last Thursday. > > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jesus Canal Subject: [CANSLIM] And now what ? Date: 15 Mar 2000 21:58:34 -0800 Hi, Yesterday, I sold and took some profits on Siebel (it was 10% down from its all time high), Novellus (it was 10% down from its all time high), and Cisco (I was too excited selling and raising cash). Two weeks ago I took a loss on JMED. So this morning, I found myself with 70% of my portfolio in cash and a need to buy some stocks. However, Nasdaq was down soon after the opening bell and I ended up not buying a thing. When do you think it is a good time to start buying again ? On one hand, there's the release of the PPI and CPI numbers and the Fed meeting which tell me to wait until next week. On the other hand, Nasdaq has been corrected by 10% already, and earlier this year, after two 10% corrections, it rebounded nicely, which tells me to buy now. Thanks, Jesus - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence? Date: 16 Mar 2000 10:25:54 +0200 2 days ago I got in to cash totally. Yesterday I looked for *anything* showing a little strength in this blowout and found 1 or 2 possibilities dram - was showing nice strength but then in the end, closed down 8.65% on heavy volume avrt - up the past few days on very heavy volume despite the madness. I bought it, but the past behavior of the chart makes me a little nervous, I'm watching it carefully. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence? Date: 16 Mar 2000 10:31:12 +0200 > avrt - up the past few days on very heavy volume despite the madness. I > bought it, but the past behavior of the chart makes me a little nervous, I'm > watching it carefully. correction - I *tried* to buy it. I just noticed that my order was rejected by Suretrade, I have no idea why. May be this is just for the best, I felt that the volume yesterday was slowing down, and in the past after a big volume burst, the stock fell severly. Oh well... - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence? Date: 16 Mar 2000 06:23:55 -0700 Am about 50% cash...started taking money off the table about 2 weeks ago. Sold VTSS at 106 on 3/1...bot on 2/8 for 48 3/8...sold when it opened on 3/1 @ 106 3/8, then traded as high as 115 before retreating all the way back to 106...I saw this as a reversal of the 3 week run and sold just a few minutes before the close. This was my best move. Also bot ETEK @ 206 on 2/8 and sold @ 285 on 3/2...also a good move. Bot SEBL @ 103 on 2/8 and sold @ 155 on 3/14 (2 days ago)...also a good move. Bot JKHY @ 30 1/2 on 2/11 and still holding with about a 23% gain. Bot DRAM @ 22 3/4 on 3/6 and still holding with about a 13% gain, although had over 31% 2 days ago. (did come within 1/16 of my 8% loss point B/4 taking off...showing how important it is to buy as close to the correct pivot point as possible) Bot SCH @ 44 1/8 on 3/2 and still holding with about a 10% gain, although had around 23% 3 days ago. Also holding CPWR and CSCO...but these have been held long term and have not been trading...in CPWR's case not a good move, but has been very good being in CSCO. My big mistake was buying EFII on 3/14 @ 65 1/8 pre-judging a B/O which did not occur...sold the next day (yesterday) @ 58 for a 11+ % loss. As Db says...lessons are repeated until they are learned. So far I am down about 3.5 % from my high last week...would have been better except for my EFII goof. This last market up cycle I tried to focus much more on taking good profits and selling when I detected some weakness developing in my stocks and its worked nicely. Had to many previous experiences of giving back good gains and did not want to repeat that pattern. I'm not sure when I will get more aggressive again...part of me is thinking about getting back in to some of these leaders when they correct to their 50dma, but another part is saying to be patient and again wait for an uptrend to start followed by a valid Follow-thru day. I have been following BEAS with a thought of getting in at it's 50dma of about 105...well I didn't and it blew right past that point yesterday to close at about 95...soooo I guess I am leaning a little more toward waiting for the F/T day. Oh what to do...it's a great game isn't it. Have a great day all. Ray "Ziggy" Wroblewski Tim Fisher wrote: > Where is everyone at today? C'mon, let's hear it. I'll go first. I have 3 > stocks left with 20 mins to go today. I got stopped out of 7 stocks the > past few days. Two that I have left are recent breakouts (XETA and DIO). I > expect to get stopped out of DIO with a 10% loss before the close. My stop > on XETA is at support & I don't think it will be reached. For some reason > QCOM is bucking the trend and hanging on right at my buy price. I want a > nice clean "V" bottom here but not only in the NASDAQ. Why the DOW is up > 350 today is a mystery to me. I have to think that this is a sucker rally > on the NYSE. > > Here's one opinion I happen to agree with: > > >``The Nasdaq is now joining the three-month long pullback on the Dow Jones > >industrial average and a break below the support at 4,750 means a new > >support level will be formed somewhere between here and 4,000 for the > >Nasdaq composite.'' > > > >Nasdaq dropped 7 percent in the past two sessions and fell another 1 > >percent at the opening bell on Wednesday. The composite is near its 50-day > >moving average after punching through the 5,000 mark just last week. > > > >Many analysts see Nasdaq's bottom between 4,400 and 4,500. > Bottom line: I am 70% + cash and am not buying today. 6.5% loss so far > since my all-time high last Thursday. > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] Rally???? Date: 16 Mar 2000 08:24:34 -0700 Well, this was a good morning for me to be off work!!! (I'm going to NCAA basketball games later this morning.) I plopped myself in front of my computer, and watched the morning rally on the NAS take off. I watched for about 15 minutes as everything looked strong. I went ahead and put a stop in my most recent purchase (it tripped a few minutes later). I also decided to lock in some of the morning's gains in 2 other positions. I picked a stop a couple of percent below the present price, and in both cases, I had to change to a market order, because both stocks moved below my target before I could get the order in. Trying to not blow out of everything in 5 minutes, I decided to give my last holding (SEBL) a tick under yesterday's close for a stop. So far, it's hanging in there, but the market is turning ugly as everyone else was also sitting on their computers with a fast trigger this morning. Here I sit about 30 minutes after the action, and all three stocks I sold have given up most of their gains, as the NAS has moved into the Red. SEBL is hanging onto it's early gains, but I'm not optimistic I'll still own it by the end of the day. This has certainly been an interesting few days. I guess I'll sit down during the weekend and see if I can figure out a strategy to help me get out a bit quicker when all hell breaks lose like this (while still holding for longer term gains when the market allows.) Hmmm. Not sure this message will help anyone, but maybe we can share some ideas as time goes on. Good luck all in this very scary market (even the NAS now). Note that IBD did compare this action to last spring's 1 month rotation into large caps, and they indicated a month or so consolidation on the NAS would be very normal given the huge runup since October. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Mark Brown" Subject: [CANSLIM] William O'Neil Web Site Address? Date: 16 Mar 2000 09:42:26 -0600 Hello All, Could someone point me to the direction of William O'Neil Web Site Address? Best regards, Mark Brown mailto:markbrown@markbrown.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mary Keener Subject: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence Date: 16 Mar 2000 07:59:02 -0800 Tim, All in cash. Bought DRAM Monday and was stopped at 8% loss Tuesday. Time to sit back, watch and wait. Research those companies holding on, not getting pushed down hard with the general market. Read an investment book or two piling up, waiting to be held just at this opportunity. A great chance to inhale some fresh air, and get ready for the next onward movement. Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] William O'Neil Web Site Address? Date: 16 Mar 2000 08:33:50 -0800 (PST) Mark, Try www.dailygraphs.com ciao, rolatzi --- Mark Brown wrote: > Hello All, > > > Could someone point me to the direction of William O'Neil > Web Site Address? > > > Best regards, > Mark Brown > mailto:markbrown@markbrown.com > > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: [CANSLIM] out of DRAM Date: 16 Mar 2000 09:32:58 -0700 Got out of DRAM for essentally a break even (up 1.2%) following WON's rule as to not make a second mistake of letting a stock fall into the loss column after not selling it with a good gain (up 31%). Ziggy - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rally???? Date: 16 Mar 2000 09:32:14 -0800 Why do you need a new strategy? You are protecting your gains. I am down to QCOM and XETA which I expect I will get out of with a piddly little gain when my stop is triggered. I see extreme schizophrenia on my watch list stocks right now. PWAV was down 50 at one point; many others are up 10% or so. IMHO buying anything today would be worse odds than playing Russian Roulette. On 07:24 AM 3/16/00 , Earl Setser Said: >Well, this was a good morning for me to be off work!!! (I'm going to NCAA >basketball games later this morning.) I plopped myself in front of my >computer, and watched the morning rally on the NAS take off. I watched for >about 15 minutes as everything looked strong. I went ahead and put a stop >in my most recent purchase (it tripped a few minutes later). I also >decided to lock in some of the morning's gains in 2 other positions. I >picked a stop a couple of percent below the present price, and in both >cases, I had to change to a market order, because both stocks moved below >my target before I could get the order in. Trying to not blow out of >everything in 5 minutes, I decided to give my last holding (SEBL) a tick >under yesterday's close for a stop. So far, it's hanging in there, but the >market is turning ugly as everyone else was also sitting on their computers >with a fast trigger this morning. > >Here I sit about 30 minutes after the action, and all three stocks I sold >have given up most of their gains, as the NAS has moved into the Red. SEBL >is hanging onto it's early gains, but I'm not optimistic I'll still own it >by the end of the day. > >This has certainly been an interesting few days. I guess I'll sit down >during the weekend and see if I can figure out a strategy to help me get >out a bit quicker when all hell breaks lose like this (while still holding >for longer term gains when the market allows.) Hmmm. Not sure this >message will help anyone, but maybe we can share some ideas as time goes on. > >Good luck all in this very scary market (even the NAS now). Note that IBD >did compare this action to last spring's 1 month rotation into large caps, >and they indicated a month or so consolidation on the NAS would be very >normal given the huge runup since October. > > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Wahl, Patrick" Subject: [CANSLIM] the market Date: 16 Mar 2000 10:50:15 -0700 Wow, what a wacky market, dow is up 400 points right now, and at least for now, nasdaq seems like it has stabilized. Wonder if that hundred point drop this morning was a sort of final shakeout. Anyway, I was wondering if anyone knows of a specific bit of news, something that has changed investor perceptions, that accounts for the sharp turnaround in the Dow? - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Alexander T Subject: [CANSLIM] DRAM and stop limits Date: 16 Mar 2000 12:48:18 -0500 (EST) Hi, DRAM has showed quite a spread today, at only 12:40 it went from high of 27 1/4 to the low of 21 1/4, and now it stands at 25. Those who bought the stock on most recent breakout from the handle high at $25 would have sold today for 8% loss if they were using stop limits. If they were more flexible with intraday volatilities they would still be holding it. Seeing how many low priced stocks that break out can decent rather deep for a short period of time intraday and then even close higher, I am wondering how WON would define his loss cutting selling. In HTMMIS WON mentions that only those who can't force themselves to sell when they're down should use stop limits, others should not , to avoid shakeouts. But he still does not clarify wether even a brief intraday touch of -8% should force you to sell IMMEDIATELY. It's funny, even from IBD education line I got two answers for the two calls I made. First time I was told that -8% is absolute, and the second time I was told to look at overall picture to try to avoid intraday shakeouts. Sorry I know this was asked before by me and someone before me, but I still can't find an objective answer to this, so your input would be appreciated. Thanks, Alex ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Makara Tamás" Subject: [CANSLIM] stop loss Date: 17 Mar 2000 00:03:36 +0100 Hi Alexander, I think that the 7 or 8 percent (or whatever you choose) rule needs to be absolute and intraday. How do you tell that your stock won't fall much further until the close? How do you tell that you will have a good chance to get out next morning? Obviously many times the stock turns back or doesnt fall fast enough to really hurt you. It doesnt matter. If you don't sell immediately at the market when your stop is hit, one day you will have a huge destabilizing loss. The purpose of the stop loss rule is to minimize the chance of big losses. (Still the stock may gap through the stop resulting in a much bigger loss than 8%.) You should be proud of yourself when you get stopped out and the stock goes straight up in your face. It may not be a pleasant experiance but paying insurance on your house isn't pleasant either. But it's the right thing to do. That said, I may not sell immediately after the stock trades bellow my stop level. Sometimes the stock goes bellow the stop in one trade but the asked price is above my stop.Then I often wait until the ask side comes down to the stop level or there are more trades at the bid. Regards, Tamas > From: Alexander T > Subject: [CANSLIM] DRAM and stop limits > Date: 16 Mar 2000 12:48:18 -0500 (EST) > > Hi, > > DRAM has showed quite a spread today, at only 12:40 it went from high of 27 > 1/4 to the low of 21 1/4, and now it stands at 25. > > Those who bought the stock on most recent breakout from the handle high at > $25 would have sold today for 8% loss if they were using stop limits. If > they were more flexible with intraday volatilities they would still be > holding it. > > Seeing how many low priced stocks that break out can decent rather deep for > a short period of time intraday and then even close higher, I am wondering > how WON would define his loss cutting selling. > > In HTMMIS WON mentions that only those who can't force themselves to sell > when they're down should use stop limits, others should not , to avoid > shakeouts. But he still does not clarify wether even a brief intraday touch > of -8% should force you to sell IMMEDIATELY. > > It's funny, even from IBD education line I got two answers for the two calls > I made. First time I was told that -8% is absolute, and the second time I > was told to look at overall picture to try to avoid intraday shakeouts. > > Sorry I know this was asked before by me and someone before me, but I still > can't find an objective answer to this, so your input would be appreciated. > > Thanks, > > Alex > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "james sullivan" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] the market Date: 16 Mar 2000 20:56:52 -0500 Patrick....i don't THINK anything has changed investor perceptions...i believe the investor is still worried about all the same things.....greenspan's next move, oil prices, nasdaq's bubble(?), etc.....i see the action as climbing a wall of worry....if there was no worry, how much new money could be expected to enter the market? not much is my guess ..i find myself more focused with N(ew) than M(arket) at this time.....i see it as a typical bull.....too many exciting companies and not enough cash to 'em....my concerns are: greenspan's health; will cash from the long end of the yield curve get to japan and help it offset oil prices; mutual funds' cash; will greenspan make a move to lower available margin in equities (at least, those damn high tech ones)....but i've been wrong before.....just about fully margined with EMC, ZOMX, QCOM, JDSU, and ELON and up 104% so far....ciao -----Original Message----- >Wow, what a wacky market, dow is up 400 points right now, and at least for >now, nasdaq seems like it has stabilized. Wonder if that hundred point drop >this morning was a sort of final shakeout. Anyway, I was wondering if >anyone knows of a specific bit of news, something that has changed investor >perceptions, that accounts for the sharp turnaround in the Dow? > >- > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rally???? Date: 16 Mar 2000 22:44:02 -0700 My present selling strategy is to give stocks plenty of room once they have gains. I think I may want to adjust (not really new) that so that I get out a little quicker on strong negative action like we've had this week. Yes, I protected some of my gains, but the goal would to protect a little better. At 09:32 AM 3/16/00 -0800, you wrote: >Why do you need a new strategy? You are protecting your gains. I am down to >QCOM and XETA which I expect I will get out of with a piddly little gain >when my stop is triggered. I see extreme schizophrenia on my watch list >stocks right now. PWAV was down 50 at one point; many others are up 10% or >so. IMHO buying anything today would be worse odds than playing Russian >Roulette. > >On 07:24 AM 3/16/00 , Earl Setser Said: >>Well, this was a good morning for me to be off work!!! (I'm going to NCAA >>basketball games later this morning.) I plopped myself in front of my >>computer, and watched the morning rally on the NAS take off. I watched for >>about 15 minutes as everything looked strong. I went ahead and put a stop >>in my most recent purchase (it tripped a few minutes later). I also >>decided to lock in some of the morning's gains in 2 other positions. I >>picked a stop a couple of percent below the present price, and in both >>cases, I had to change to a market order, because both stocks moved below >>my target before I could get the order in. Trying to not blow out of >>everything in 5 minutes, I decided to give my last holding (SEBL) a tick >>under yesterday's close for a stop. So far, it's hanging in there, but the >>market is turning ugly as everyone else was also sitting on their computers >>with a fast trigger this morning. >> >>Here I sit about 30 minutes after the action, and all three stocks I sold >>have given up most of their gains, as the NAS has moved into the Red. SEBL >>is hanging onto it's early gains, but I'm not optimistic I'll still own it >>by the end of the day. >> >>This has certainly been an interesting few days. I guess I'll sit down >>during the weekend and see if I can figure out a strategy to help me get >>out a bit quicker when all hell breaks lose like this (while still holding >>for longer term gains when the market allows.) Hmmm. Not sure this >>message will help anyone, but maybe we can share some ideas as time goes on. >> >>Good luck all in this very scary market (even the NAS now). Note that IBD >>did compare this action to last spring's 1 month rotation into large caps, >>and they indicated a month or so consolidation on the NAS would be very >>normal given the huge runup since October. >> >> >>- > >Tim Fisher >Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > >Tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW: http://OreRockOn.com >See naked fish and rocks! > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stop loss Date: 17 Mar 2000 06:13:45 -0700 Alexander, I agree with what was said by Tamas. WON says that about 50% of the stocks you sell with your 7-8% loss will turn around and go back up. What you are protecting yourself against is the other 50%. That being said, I will sometimes hold on to a stock that falls thru my stop limit if the volume is extremely light thus trying to avoid what may be a shakeout. Ziggy "Makara Tamás" " wrote: > Hi Alexander, > > I think that the 7 or 8 percent (or whatever you choose) rule needs to > be absolute and intraday. How do you tell that your stock won't fall > much further until the close? How do you tell that you will have a good > chance to get out next morning? Obviously many times the stock turns > back or doesnt fall fast enough to really hurt you. It doesnt matter. If > you don't sell immediately at the market when your stop is hit, one day > you will have a huge destabilizing loss. The purpose of the stop loss > rule is to minimize the chance of big losses. (Still the stock may gap > through the stop resulting in a much bigger loss than 8%.) You should be > proud of yourself when you get stopped out and the stock goes straight > up in your face. It may not be a pleasant experiance but paying > insurance on your house isn't pleasant either. But it's the right thing > to do. > > That said, I may not sell immediately after the stock trades bellow my > stop level. Sometimes the stock goes bellow the stop in one trade but > the asked price is above my stop.Then I often wait until the ask side > comes down to the stop level or there are more trades at the bid. > > Regards, Tamas > > > From: Alexander T > > Subject: [CANSLIM] DRAM and stop limits > > Date: 16 Mar 2000 12:48:18 -0500 (EST) > > > > Hi, > > > > DRAM has showed quite a spread today, at only 12:40 it went from high of 27 > > 1/4 to the low of 21 1/4, and now it stands at 25. > > > > Those who bought the stock on most recent breakout from the handle high at > > $25 would have sold today for 8% loss if they were using stop limits. If > > they were more flexible with intraday volatilities they would still be > > holding it. > > > > Seeing how many low priced stocks that break out can decent rather deep for > > a short period of time intraday and then even close higher, I am wondering > > how WON would define his loss cutting selling. > > > > In HTMMIS WON mentions that only those who can't force themselves to sell > > when they're down should use stop limits, others should not , to avoid > > shakeouts. But he still does not clarify wether even a brief intraday touch > > of -8% should force you to sell IMMEDIATELY. > > > > It's funny, even from IBD education line I got two answers for the two calls > > I made. First time I was told that -8% is absolute, and the second time I > > was told to look at overall picture to try to avoid intraday shakeouts. > > > > Sorry I know this was asked before by me and someone before me, but I still > > can't find an objective answer to this, so your input would be appreciated. > > > > Thanks, > > > > Alex > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekend Review Stats Date: 17 Mar 2000 18:18:27 -0700 I'm sure we will see a note from Tom later this weekend about how the number of qualifying stocks is WAY down. I took a look at the Weekend Review this morning and was astounded at how small this list was today. Remember, this is all stocks 85/85, above $7, and within 15% of the 52 week high. I'm sure it's that last criteria that has weeded the list down this week. Last Friday 81 stocks in A industry groups 93 stocks total for all groups Today 30 stocks in A industry groups 39 stocks total for all groups That's a total of 63% (almost 2 of 3) of last week's list that didn't make the grade this week. I'm sure it would have been better after today's market. I'm 75% cash based on my previous investments and holding only SEBL. I am about 94% cash after I account for some new funds I've added to my CANSLIM account last week and in the next few days. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Ricardo Bekin" Subject: [CANSLIM] LWIN Date: 17 Mar 2000 20:45:15 -0600 valuations aside, would anyone care to comment on the 1 year chart of LWIN? (http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=LWIN&d=1y) thanks in advance Ricardo - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekend Review Stats Date: 17 Mar 2000 23:36:59 -0500 Sorry, Earl, the list as of Thursday was still 154 strong, so I expect good numbers tomorrow for my review. I am eager to see what gems I might find, a flushing action like we have seen often leaves only the best on the top. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, March 17, 2000 8:18 PM I'm sure we will see a note from Tom later this weekend about how the number of qualifying stocks is WAY down. I took a look at the Weekend Review this morning and was astounded at how small this list was today. Remember, this is all stocks 85/85, above $7, and within 15% of the 52 week high. I'm sure it's that last criteria that has weeded the list down this week. Last Friday 81 stocks in A industry groups 93 stocks total for all groups Today 30 stocks in A industry groups 39 stocks total for all groups That's a total of 63% (almost 2 of 3) of last week's list that didn't make the grade this week. I'm sure it would have been better after today's market. I'm 75% cash based on my previous investments and holding only SEBL. I am about 94% cash after I account for some new funds I've added to my CANSLIM account last week and in the next few days. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LWIN Date: 17 Mar 2000 23:46:27 -0500 Sure Ricardo, looks like it's forming a watchable base. But with revenues for only two quarters, and huge (and generally growing) losses for 8 quarters, it's tough to judge in the context of CANSLIM. You don't even have demonstrable revenue growth to use as a substitute for earnings. With an EPS of 4, it won't make the DGO list or my radar screen. But could still be a nice momentum play for those trading that way. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, March 17, 2000 9:45 PM valuations aside, would anyone care to comment on the 1 year chart of LWIN? (http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=LWIN&d=1y) thanks in advance Ricardo - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekend Review Stats Date: 17 Mar 2000 22:06:21 -0700 Ah yes, Tom. Actually, I thought about it after I posted and that's what I would expect. Your list does not take price (within 15% of the high) into account, right? I think that's the case, and that illustrates why these stocks have fallen off of the weekend update list. At 11:36 PM 3/17/00 -0500, you wrote: >Sorry, Earl, the list as of Thursday was still 154 strong, >so I expect good numbers tomorrow for my review. I am eager >to see what gems I might find, a flushing action like we >have seen often leaves only the best on the top. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Earl Setser >To: >Sent: Friday, March 17, 2000 8:18 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekend Review Stats > > >I'm sure we will see a note from Tom later this weekend >about how the >number of qualifying stocks is WAY down. I took a look at >the Weekend >Review this morning and was astounded at how small this list >was today. >Remember, this is all stocks 85/85, above $7, and within 15% >of the 52 week >high. I'm sure it's that last criteria that has weeded the >list down this >week. > >Last Friday > >81 stocks in A industry groups >93 stocks total for all groups > >Today > >30 stocks in A industry groups >39 stocks total for all groups > >That's a total of 63% (almost 2 of 3) of last week's list >that didn't make >the grade this week. I'm sure it would have been better >after today's market. > >I'm 75% cash based on my previous investments and holding >only SEBL. I am >about 94% cash after I account for some new funds I've added >to my CANSLIM >account last week and in the next few days. > > > > >- > > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LWIN Date: 17 Mar 2000 22:19:25 -0700 Looks pretty good, nice base, sort of an ascending triangle look to it, although doesn't quite meet that definition. But is does seem to be making higher lows along the way to forming a base. On 17 Mar 00, at 20:45, Ricardo Bekin wrote: > valuations aside, would anyone care to comment on the 1 year chart of LWIN? > > (http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=LWIN&d=1y) > > thanks in advance > > Ricardo > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Bob Raible Subject: [CANSLIM] who pulled the plug? Date: 18 Mar 2000 00:03:57 -0800 (PST) I just finished re-subscribing. I've been a long time subscriber to the digest and apparently someone pulled the plug on my subscription due to bounced email. The odd thing is that I have been getting copious amounts of email all week and no one else has complained about problems sending me email. I've got to wonder if it is my email provider (yahoo) or is there some other problem. Has anyone else on the list had this problem? ===== Bob Raible Sunny San Jose,CA __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekend Review Stats Date: 18 Mar 2000 07:50:35 -0500 Earl, The list that I review and post from has as its criteria: in the Daily Graphs books (about 2,000 or so stocks) RS and EPS of 80 or better at or within 5% of its 12 month high in the prior week so price is very much part of the process So the list starts with its universe already limited to those selected to be in Wm O'Neil's books, then is reduced further. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Saturday, March 18, 2000 12:06 AM Ah yes, Tom. Actually, I thought about it after I posted and that's what I would expect. Your list does not take price (within 15% of the high) into account, right? I think that's the case, and that illustrates why these stocks have fallen off of the weekend update list. At 11:36 PM 3/17/00 -0500, you wrote: >Sorry, Earl, the list as of Thursday was still 154 strong, >so I expect good numbers tomorrow for my review. I am eager >to see what gems I might find, a flushing action like we >have seen often leaves only the best on the top. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Earl Setser >To: >Sent: Friday, March 17, 2000 8:18 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekend Review Stats > > >I'm sure we will see a note from Tom later this weekend >about how the >number of qualifying stocks is WAY down. I took a look at >the Weekend >Review this morning and was astounded at how small this list >was today. >Remember, this is all stocks 85/85, above $7, and within 15% >of the 52 week >high. I'm sure it's that last criteria that has weeded the >list down this >week. > >Last Friday > >81 stocks in A industry groups >93 stocks total for all groups > >Today > >30 stocks in A industry groups >39 stocks total for all groups > >That's a total of 63% (almost 2 of 3) of last week's list >that didn't make >the grade this week. I'm sure it would have been better >after today's market. > >I'm 75% cash based on my previous investments and holding >only SEBL. I am >about 94% cash after I account for some new funds I've added >to my CANSLIM >account last week and in the next few days. > > > > >- > > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Bob Raible Subject: [CANSLIM] Anyone else had email problems? Date: 17 Mar 2000 23:58:13 -0800 (PST) I just finished re-subscribing. I've been a long time subscriber to the digest and apparently someone pulled the plug on my subscription due to bounced email. The odd thing is that I have been getting copious amounts of email all week and no one else has complained about problems sending me email. I've got to wonder if it is my email provider (yahoo) or is there some other problem. Has anyone else on the list had this problem? ===== Bob Raible Sunny San Jose,CA __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: [CANSLIM] My Plan Date: 18 Mar 2000 10:00:57 -0800 I am picking ten stocks from this list to buy at the open Monday. Not because I think the market has put in its bottom, but because this worked for me the last go-round. These are almost all HGS group "1" stocks and those were by far my best purchases of February. I rolled out of four of them with between 89 & 150% profit. I'll be looking for charts which approached the 50 dma and bounced off of it in the last 2 days. I'm starting them all off with 15% trailing stops. Wish I could wait & see what the market is doing early next week but we are gone to Disneyland for spring break & I won't be able to watch during the day. I may do a little tweaking after market if my laptop modem cooperates. A BRCM BVSN CHKP CMVT CSCO EMLX ISSX JDSU MCRL MERQ NTAP PMCS QGENF QLGC RFMD SDLI SEBL VTSS Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Alexander T Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Stocks in review & Who pulled the plug Date: 18 Mar 2000 15:04:33 -0500 (EST) Hi, To answer someone's mail, my address also was auto-unsubscribed from this list for bouncing email, but none of the other email I receive has bounced... so I am wondering if there was some external problem. IBD Weekend review for this week does look very scarce. While I didn't count, the listing of stocks is much shorter, and entries are DOUBLE SPACED. Only 3 stocks were boldfaced in the whole list (up 1 point or more with volume up 50% ): FORR, AVRT, LDP. Earl, I believe that Tom's list returned more entries because his criteria, among others, was that the stocks were within 5% of their high WITHIN THE LAST WEEK. Since most dropped lower within last few days, there are stocks that didn't make IBD review list, but would still make Tom's. (Sorry if I didn't get it right). Another intersting "M" point: In FRI IBD, Industry prices table had most top performing groups underlined, while laggard groups were boldfaced. New high list also had very few leading groups making new highs, compared to previous IBD issues. Laggard groups, on the other hand, had more. Some of the groups with greatest % of stocks making new highs were: Oil&GAS - 20% Retail chains 14% Finance - 11% Tobacco - 11% Auto/truck-parts -10% Is this a temporary rotation? I am afraid that if this persists for a few days, we may just see a change in leadership into the laggard late-stage groups, which WON says precursor a bear market. Who knows, can't you see I am confused? Regards ! ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Sam Funchess Subject: [CANSLIM] AC DTPI Date: 18 Mar 2000 22:05:17 -0500 Has anyone looked at AC or DTPI? Both have strong revenue and earnings growth. Don't have IBD numbers on these. AC return on equity is real strong. Sam - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] AC DTPI Date: 18 Mar 2000 21:44:29 -0700 FYI, IBD Numbers are: AC - 97/70/B.B DTPI - 97/94/BAC At 10:05 PM 3/18/00 -0500, you wrote: >Has anyone looked at AC or DTPI? Both have strong revenue and earnings >growth. Don't have IBD numbers on these. AC return on equity is real >strong. > >Sam > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] Leaders List Date: 18 Mar 2000 21:47:15 -0700 Here is my latest "Leaders List". This list is assembled by taking stocks in the top 20-25 Industry Groups and generating a score for the stocks by combining IBD EPS, RPS, SPR rating, A/D rating, Sponsorship rank, and Industry Group rank. I try to remove any stocks that are being purchased from the list. The list is the top 100 (or so) stocks by score (in order, highest scores first). I monitor this list for technical signals to buy. This list represents strong stocks that you may want to watch, but they have not been reviewed for technical signals yet, and many or most have not formed bases at this time. Disclaimer: I presently own SEBL. QGENF CHKP JDSU EMLX VRTS ETEK TLGD ITWO BOBJ AMCC TTIL MERQ SEBL XETA NTAP QCOM TECH ADIC SRNA CTXS ANEN AUDC SNDK QLGC VOXX MUSE RSAS SDLI PMCS IVGN SFA DSPG PRGN VSAT DITC SAPE CMVT HAUP ADCT PTIX NT ORCL AFCI SILI CREE BVSN ADTN WEBT ALDN TQNT RMDY APSG DRAM CSCO PLXT NTSL BRCD VTSS ELNT GILTF PSEM OCCF ENZ BBRC MCRL HNCS INTL ECTX TKLC PWAV NATI DSET TENF SMTC RFMD NOK CBXC ISSX BRCM GLW XLNX ADI ENTU PGNX AMKR ADBE FORTY PCTI HLIT FLEX CUBE QSFT TXCC PCOP ALTR DIO APCC MCHP MXIM FFTI ARMHY PSWT HIFN PROX IIVI PUMA - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Leaders List Date: 18 Mar 2000 21:40:55 -0800 ETEK is under arbitrage (JDSU). At 09:47 PM 3/18/00 -0700, you wrote: >Here is my latest "Leaders List". This list is assembled by taking stocks >in the top 20-25 Industry Groups and generating a score for the stocks by >combining IBD EPS, RPS, SPR rating, A/D rating, Sponsorship rank, and >Industry Group rank. I try to remove any stocks that are being purchased >from the list. The list is the top 100 (or so) stocks by score (in order, >highest scores first). I monitor this list for technical signals to buy. >This list represents strong stocks that you may want to watch, but they >have not been reviewed for technical signals yet, and many or most have not >formed bases at this time. Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] New Date: 18 Mar 2000 17:29:31 -0700 The Friday IBD was full of articles about the latest New thing - Business to Business (B2B). It would be worth looking up by anyone who doesn't subscribe to it. The two prominent names they mentioned are Commerce One and Arriba, also Oracle sounds like it will have a big hand in this business. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] LDP 7 P/E and weekend review Date: 19 Mar 2000 10:53:05 -0800 LDP seems extremely cheap at [7 P/E] for a Weekend Review stock. Plus, it was boldfaced. I'm very tempted to sell DSPG and pick it up, although I haven't looked at the chart yet. Anyone know anything else about this potential bargain? -Jim the-extremely-nervous-yet-still-fully-invested-despite-volatile-schozophrenic-markets-short-term-bull - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LDP 7 P/E and weekend review Date: 19 Mar 2000 12:36:15 -0500 Hi Jim, There's usually a reason why a market only values a stock at 6 or 7 times its earnings, and for me is a sign of caution and further research, rather than a red flag to buy. In this case, I note that the past two qtrs show a sudden gain in both earnings and sales from $1.48 tp 7.73 in earnings, and from 30.6 to 125.0 in sales. CANSLIM data is good, RS 96, EPS 93, A/D Timeliness and SMR are all A, however ROE is only 8%. Earnings growth over five years is 20%, but like so much of the other earnings related data, it is distorted by the 1999 earnings of over $18 compared to its normal $2.40 or so. There are no earnings forecasts for 2000 at DGO, meaning there are not three or more analysts following it, so I don't know if the exceptional earnings of the past six months are expected to continue. However, the PE of 6 suggests that it won't. I would encourage some homework into what happened in June/July '99 to so affect earnings and sales, and whether it will continue. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, March 19, 2000 1:53 PM LDP seems extremely cheap at [7 P/E] for a Weekend Review stock. Plus, it was boldfaced. I'm very tempted to sell DSPG and pick it up, although I haven't looked at the chart yet. Anyone know anything else about this potential bargain? -Jim the-extremely-nervous-yet-still-fully-invested-despite-volat ile-schozophrenic-markets-short-term-bull - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 19 Mar 2000 12:54:34 -0500 The sharp correction over the past week in Nasdaq did some substantial damage, and likely it will take a week or two to fix for CANSLIMers. Most stocks on this week's list ended up well under their recent highs, even tho on Monday/Tuesday they were still within 5%. Overall, the list by Friday was back to about where it had been, 129 stocks for the current week vs 154 the prior week and 132 the week before that. But due the "left side of the funnel" for most of them, I found few worth watching for now. Here's the margin comments: VRTS - nice recovery MVSN - nice c&h if the handle wasn't so high ORCL - B1+ CLFY - B2 MCRL - B1 NT - breakout from B2 PRLX - B5 on B3 LTRE - B2 SUNW - B5+ CSCO - B3+ INDYY - B2 ASF - B2+ INTL - breakout failed, base @ 40 BCE - B2+ ACTL - B3 AMAT - B1 ROG - B1 RYAAY - B1 Enjoy, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] HOTT Date: 19 Mar 2000 19:25:29 -0000 Take a look at HOTT Retailers have been out of favour as we know (industry RS C), but this stock appears to be near the front of its group (RS 80) with great fundamentals and has just made a cup. It might make a handle in the next few days - who knows!? Best, Marc - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mary Keener Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekend Review Stats Date: 19 Mar 2000 11:14:43 -0800 Tom, I counted 39 companies from the IBD in the Weekend Review. Where do you get 154? Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekend Review Stats Date: 19 Mar 2000 21:09:08 -0500 Hi Mary, I don't use the IBD Weekend Review, I use the list from DGO for stocks at or within 5% of their high during the prior week (last report on the Reports button). And 154 was the total on the list last week, the total this week was 129. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, March 19, 2000 2:14 PM Tom, I counted 39 companies from the IBD in the Weekend Review. Where do you get 154? Mary - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HOTT Date: 20 Mar 2000 07:02:50 -0700 Hi Marc, Thanks for the heads-up on HOTT...the chart and volume looks good. What I see though is not a cup but rather a "double bottom" or "W" pattern with a B/O that occurred last Thursday. I see the pivot point to be at 23 3/4 (1/8 of a point above the middle of the "W" high of 23 5/8 reached on 2/4). The current price of 25 1/8 is slightly higher than the 24 15/16 price I calculate as 5% above the pivot price. As you mentioned the IBD group strength is only C, but it has been moving up from 128 three months ago to the current 90...about another 10 positions will move that IBD ranking to B. Current IBD ranking is 99 82 CAB. One interesting thing I noticed when checking into this stock was the extremely high Short interest... 1.35M or 29.4% of the 4.6M share float is shorted. I'm not sure how to read this...on one hand I view this as a strong positive because all those people have to buy back those shares which would cause upward price pressure...on the other hand, does somebody know something, like what is going to happen to MSTR today with them restating earnings for last year due to an SEC investigation. In any event, I am going to add this one to my watchlist and may decide to nibble if we get a Nasdaq Follow Thru day this week...today is day 3 of the current rally attempt. Have a great day, Ziggy Marc Laniado wrote: > Take a look at HOTT > Retailers have been out of favour as we know (industry RS C), but this stock > appears to be near the front of its group (RS 80) with great fundamentals > and has just made a cup. It might make a handle in the next few days - who > knows!? > Best, > Marc > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HOTT Date: 20 Mar 2000 23:06:01 -0000 Hi Ziggy, Cups or double bottoms - I know it can be difficult and I tend to look at weekly as well as daily charts which can turn double bottoms into cups. Nevertheless, it is near a new high, and would be great if it declines by up to 15% for a couple of weeks. Although tech is out at the moment, why don't you inspect MCSW? My bets for coming out of bottoms are FFIV and JNIC. I believe both of these are potential greats for the next tech ascent with wounderful fundamentals. FFIV is increasingly being bought by institutions inspite of being in a base building formation. It is, of course, to be watched and not bought at the moment. Good luck, Marc ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Monday, March 20, 2000 2:02 PM > Hi Marc, > > Thanks for the heads-up on HOTT...the chart and volume looks good. What I see > though is not a cup but rather a "double bottom" or "W" pattern with a B/O that > occurred last Thursday. I see the pivot point to be at 23 3/4 (1/8 of a point > above the middle of the "W" high of 23 5/8 reached on 2/4). > > The current price of 25 1/8 is slightly higher than the 24 15/16 price I > calculate as 5% above the pivot price. > > As you mentioned the IBD group strength is only C, but it has been moving up > from 128 three months ago to the current 90...about another 10 positions will > move that IBD ranking to B. > > Current IBD ranking is 99 82 CAB. > > One interesting thing I noticed when checking into this stock was the extremely > high Short interest... > 1.35M or 29.4% of the 4.6M share float is shorted. I'm not sure how to read > this...on one hand I view this as a strong positive because all those people > have to buy back those shares which would cause upward price pressure...on the > other hand, does somebody know something, like what is going to happen to MSTR > today with them restating earnings for last year due to an SEC investigation. > > In any event, I am going to add this one to my watchlist and may decide to > nibble if we get a Nasdaq > Follow Thru day this week...today is day 3 of the current rally attempt. > > Have a great day, > > Ziggy > > Marc Laniado wrote: > > > Take a look at HOTT > > Retailers have been out of favour as we know (industry RS C), but this stock > > appears to be near the front of its group (RS 80) with great fundamentals > > and has just made a cup. It might make a handle in the next few days - who > > knows!? > > Best, > > Marc > > > > - > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: LDP again Date: 20 Mar 2000 20:37:37 -0800 Yes Tom, I did some homework on LDP, and not only is the P/E significantly higher than that posted in IBD [something I find surprisingly often], but many of the gains are as a result of LDP investing in other companies [i.e. simply buying shares of momentum stocks]. Their so-called core business is insurance. A very cursory study of LDP made me leery enough to stop considering it. Indeed there is no substitute for thorough homework. Thanks for the reply. There's usually a reason why a market only values a stock at 6 or 7 times its earnings, and for me is a sign of caution and further research, rather than a red flag to buy. In this case, I note that the past two qtrs show a sudden gain in both earnings and sales from $1.48 tp 7.73 in earnings, and from 30.6 to 125.0 in sales. CANSLIM data is good, RS 96, EPS 93, A/D Timeliness and SMR are all A, however ROE is only 8%. Earnings growth over five years is 20%, but like so much of the other earnings related data, it is distorted by the 1999 earnings of over $18 compared to its normal $2.40 or so. There are no earnings forecasts for 2000 at DGO, meaning there are not three or more analysts following it, so I don't know if the exceptional earnings of the past six months are expected to continue. However, the PE of 6 suggests that it won't. I would encourage some homework into what happened in June/July '99 to so affect earnings and sales, and whether it will continue. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: SKutney@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] LDP Date: 20 Mar 2000 22:11:56 EST London-Pacific Investments also got my attention when I was using my trial subscription to daily graphs. I was looking for stocks that may be standouts in a sector rotation. They say that Financials and Retail stocks were up. Financial have been in a long term downtrend for some time. A low PE would not be out of step for this group. Yahoo had the PE listed as 7 last week in the profile. It is now listed as 62 in the profile but is still listed as less than 7 if you display basic information. CBS.Marketwatch.com lists it at 25. IBD lists it at 7. The Financial Management group was in the 130+ range 6 months ago. In the 70s three months ago and was in the 60s last time I looked. I believe the earnings increased because of investment in Internet Stocks. Steve Kutney In last Wednesdays paper - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: David Bojanowski Subject: [CANSLIM] WON - Cup & Handle Date: 21 Mar 2000 11:52:42 -0500 http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/20000309/news/current/invest.htx?source=h tx/http2_mw I found this useful. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day? Date: 21 Mar 2000 14:54:17 -0700 Today was day 4 of the current Nasdaq rally that began with last thursday's turn-around. Today the Naz was up 100.71 points (+ 2.1%) on volume (1.749B shares) that increased from yesterday's volume (1.526B shares). Because today's Nasdaq low of 4467.53 did not undercut last thursday's low of 4455.10, I think this was a valid Naz Follow Thru ( F/T) day. Do others concur or disagree? Thanks, Ziggy - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: " Makara Tamás" Subject: [CANSLIM] follow through Date: 22 Mar 2000 01:26:56 +0100 Hi Ziggy, According to Kevin Marder at TradingMarkets.com it was an O'Neil follow through. Regards, Tamas > From: > Subject: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day? > Date: 21 Mar 2000 14:54:17 -0700 > > Today was day 4 of the current Nasdaq rally that began with > last thursday's turn-around. > > Today the Naz was up 100.71 points (+ 2.1%) on volume > (1.749B shares) that increased from yesterday's volume > (1.526B shares). > > Because today's Nasdaq low of 4467.53 did not undercut last > thursday's low of 4455.10, I think this was a valid Naz > Follow Thru ( F/T) day. > > Do others concur or disagree? > > Thanks, > Ziggy > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] stops Date: 21 Mar 2000 17:45:46 -0700 Not to say this is the best way or only way, but today was a good example of how stops can shake you out of a position when it probably would be better to hang in there. One of my stocks spiked down 14 point early in the morning (that's 9%), before rebounding and closing up 5 points for the day. Not sure where a stop would have been, but seems like good odds that having a stop in place would have shaken me out. Guess for me at least, in most cases, it seems best to base selling on closing prices and not some intraday spike. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day? Date: 21 Mar 2000 18:57:40 -0700 I agree, although I am a little concerned about that low in the morning. Has anyone seen how the volume mapped out today? I would bet that the volume late in the day was much higher than before the Fed announcement, and if so, that's maybe a better indicator of the strength of this rally. At 02:54 PM 3/21/00 -0700, you wrote: >Today was day 4 of the current Nasdaq rally that began with >last thursday's turn-around. > >Today the Naz was up 100.71 points (+ 2.1%) on volume >(1.749B shares) that increased from yesterday's volume >(1.526B shares). > >Because today's Nasdaq low of 4467.53 did not undercut last >thursday's low of 4455.10, I think this was a valid Naz >Follow Thru ( F/T) day. > >Do others concur or disagree? > >Thanks, >Ziggy > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stops Date: 21 Mar 2000 19:01:22 -0700 Ah yes, I got kicked out of SEBL when it went from a 132.xx close yesterday to 110 in about 30 minutes. WOW. I looked later, and it was trading in the high 120s. My stop was about 128, and I'm happy with getting out there, but it really makes me wonder if hard stops are the way to go!! It seems the lower you set them, the more likely you'll get shaken out on some ridiculous spike down, particularly in tech stocks right now. Another example was ETEK. I sold at 234 on Thursday, and it traded as low as 19x that day. I bought back in at 236 today (still playing the arbritage way to get JDSU) after-market today. With that purchase, ETEK is my only holding and I'm a little under 1/6 invested. At 05:45 PM 3/21/00 -0700, you wrote: >Not to say this is the best way or only way, but today was a good >example of how stops can shake you out of a position when it >probably would be better to hang in there. One of my stocks >spiked down 14 point early in the morning (that's 9%), before >rebounding and closing up 5 points for the day. Not sure where a >stop would have been, but seems like good odds that having a stop >in place would have shaken me out. Guess for me at least, in >most cases, it seems best to base selling on closing prices and >not some intraday spike. > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stops Date: 21 Mar 2000 22:07:11 -0700 Pretty wild lately, I think if would be best if I didn't even look at the market intraday, but its some sort of compulsion. Jubak has a good article today about the recent volatility, noted that its pretty tough to keep your cool with the recent intraday price swings. He likes JDSU, BTW, which I noticed touched its 50 day moving average and bounced today. Regarding your experience with the stops, we were recently discussing holding longer, towards that end I am trying to hang on to a couple of stocks that I think I have an understanding of and seem to have good prospects looking out a year or two, so no stops on them, will monitor them for moves that seem unrelated to market moves, but if they move down simply because the market is gyrating, I am going to try to hold on. On 21 Mar 00, at 19:01, Earl Setser wrote: > Ah yes, I got kicked out of SEBL when it went from a 132.xx close yesterday > to 110 in about 30 minutes. WOW. I looked later, and it was trading in > the high 120s. My stop was about 128, and I'm happy with getting out > there, but it really makes me wonder if hard stops are the way to go!! It > seems the lower you set them, the more likely you'll get shaken out on some > ridiculous spike down, particularly in tech stocks right now. Another > example was ETEK. I sold at 234 on Thursday, and it traded as low as 19x > that day. I bought back in at 236 today (still playing the arbritage way > to get JDSU) after-market today. With that purchase, ETEK is my only > holding and I'm a little under 1/6 invested. > > At 05:45 PM 3/21/00 -0700, you wrote: > >Not to say this is the best way or only way, but today was a good > >example of how stops can shake you out of a position when it > >probably would be better to hang in there. One of my stocks > >spiked down 14 point early in the morning (that's 9%), before > >rebounding and closing up 5 points for the day. Not sure where a > >stop would have been, but seems like good odds that having a stop > >in place would have shaken me out. Guess for me at least, in > >most cases, it seems best to base selling on closing prices and > >not some intraday spike. > > > >- > > > > > > > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day? Date: 22 Mar 2000 02:42:00 -0500 Hi Ziggy, My first inclination was to agree with it being a follow thru day. What bothers me with this conclusion, however, is the quality of follow thru. Checking the indexes I follow, I find too many of them only had average volume today (S&P500; Naz; NYSE Composite; R2000, to name a few). Dow 30 did exceed daily average, but was confined to a few sectors. I am also concerned about the advance/decline on Naz, a 2:3 ratio even tho volume was a 3/2 ratio, so the big cap, highly liquid stocks made that 2%. I would have expected far more robust volume on a 2% day, even with the sideline sitting until the Feds announcements at 2:15PM. Had yesterday's volume been typical, I am not sure today's volume would have even exceeded, and that could be a major chink in the "follow thru" argument. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, March 21, 2000 4:54 PM Today was day 4 of the current Nasdaq rally that began with last thursday's turn-around. Today the Naz was up 100.71 points (+ 2.1%) on volume (1.749B shares) that increased from yesterday's volume (1.526B shares). Because today's Nasdaq low of 4467.53 did not undercut last thursday's low of 4455.10, I think this was a valid Naz Follow Thru ( F/T) day. Do others concur or disagree? Thanks, Ziggy - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stops Date: 22 Mar 2000 06:26:32 -0700 I am getting a little more agressive at this point...Bot SEBL yesterday am at 121 1/2 when it bounced off it's 50 dma (about 120)...by the way, that SEBL low of 110 was only showing for about an hour and then was changed to a low of 118 which is what is also showing as the low in today's IBD...so I think the 110 may have been an error. As of this morning I'm about 60% invested and am planning to increase this to 100% as the week unfolds barring any market surprises...My current holdings are CPWR, CSCO, SCH, SEBL and VTSS. I would like to add ETEK and will be looking for an entry point I am comfortable with...also watching HOTT. Have a great day, Ziggy Earl Setser wrote: > Ah yes, I got kicked out of SEBL when it went from a 132.xx close yesterday > to 110 in about 30 minutes. WOW. I looked later, and it was trading in > the high 120s. My stop was about 128, and I'm happy with getting out > there, but it really makes me wonder if hard stops are the way to go!! It > seems the lower you set them, the more likely you'll get shaken out on some > ridiculous spike down, particularly in tech stocks right now. Another > example was ETEK. I sold at 234 on Thursday, and it traded as low as 19x > that day. I bought back in at 236 today (still playing the arbritage way > to get JDSU) after-market today. With that purchase, ETEK is my only > holding and I'm a little under 1/6 invested. > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: [CANSLIM] Group Strenght-Brokers Date: 22 Mar 2000 07:17:49 -0700 The IBD group strength for the Finance-Investment Brokers group continues to creep up...as of today's IBD it has moved to position 38 and therefore an "A" Group ranking. Is anybody following any other groups that are moving up ?...Please share...Thanks Ziggy - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stops Date: 22 Mar 2000 07:31:50 -0800 Get this, I put in an order to buy 10 stocks (60k worth) at the open on Monday, then got on a plane for Disneyland! Just checked prices this AM, and if I had been able to put stops on I would have been out of every single one of them intraday yesterday. I was very worried about not having stops while on vacation, now I am relieved that I did not. Just lucky I guess. Could easily have been the start of another nasty correction in the NASDAQ... At 05:45 PM 3/21/00 -0700, you wrote: >Not to say this is the best way or only way, but today was a good >example of how stops can shake you out of a position when it >probably would be better to hang in there. One of my stocks >spiked down 14 point early in the morning (that's 9%), before >rebounding and closing up 5 points for the day. Not sure where a >stop would have been, but seems like good odds that having a stop >in place would have shaken me out. Guess for me at least, in >most cases, it seems best to base selling on closing prices and >not some intraday spike. > >- Tim Fisher tim@OreRockOn.com Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists Web Pages http://OreRockOn.com/ - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Dille" Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Charles Dille Date: 22 Mar 2000 10:42:58 -0600 Hi everyone, I go by Charlie and live in the Dallas area. I am = relatively new to investing and I am actively researching and = implementing the CANSLIM method of investing. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Dille" Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Charles Dille Date: 22 Mar 2000 11:15:40 -0600 Hi everyone, I go by Charlie and live in the Dallas area. I am relatively new to investing and I am actively researching and implementing the CANSLIM method of investing. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Charles Dille" Subject: [CANSLIM] TTN & SAWS Date: 22 Mar 2000 11:17:10 -0600 Titan, Nyse. & Sawtek, Nasdaq I have been watching these two stocks and would like some of your thoughts regarding the technicals on them. Do they look like they have reached the buy point? Thanks for any input. Charlie - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mary Keener Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakout Whipsaws Date: 22 Mar 2000 09:43:51 -0800 Anyone on the board have a similar experience? Mary Handling Breakout Whipsaws By Greg Kuhn Ever wonder what to do with a stock you just bought on a multi-week base breakout that hits your stop-loss the same day you bought it? As unnerving as it is, you sell it of course. But what do you do if the stock holds and breaks out again a couple days later? As unnerving as that is, you buy it back. Just when you're in your zone--just when you're operating on all cylinders--something like this will strike. If you stay focused, however, you will be able to do this as effortlessly as anything else your experiences in the market teach you. Yes, a situation like this is quite rare, but there is no way you should ever just walk away because it's too painful to deal with. It may just be one of the big-winning stocks you're looking for. Active Software (ASWX) was one such stock that caught me flat-footed in this situation. But instead of letting the stock control me, I controlled it. The stock was set up perfectly in a seven-week, cup-with-handle base. The OTC market was on fire. Other stocks in leading industry groups were breaking out of basing patterns left and right. And most of my other stocks were breaking out, following through to higher levels, and I was making money very rapidly. Sound like a recipe for complacent greed? Only if you're not careful. Only if you approach the market without any sense of humility. After swinging up off its base lows on heavy volume to complete the cup portion of its basing pattern in early February, the writing was on the wall. The stock was prepping itself for a healthy breakout. But there was the case for the handle part of the base first. And there it was. The stock pulled back on low volume on Feb. 18, 22, and 23, then sprang to life on Feb. 24 on heavy volume. This baby was being heavily accumulated and I was ready to strike! With a pivot-point, or buy price, now set at the high of the cup's right side (beginning of the handle) at 99 1/2, all I had to do was wait for it to cross that level, preferably on increasing volume during the day, and buy it. Easy enough. I was all over it, buying 12,000 shares as it approached the 99 1/2 level during the day and crossed strongly to a high of 102 5/8. Okay. Feels good. This stock blasted right through its pivot price. Wow, this is great! Just as I sat back to read the paper, thinking all I had to do now was let the stock go and watch the profits roll in, the stock abruptly stopped going up. But I've seen this before. After most stocks break out, they have to take a rest somewhere. But that was it. By the end of the day I was bailing out of my position as it ticked due outh from a high of 102 5/8 all the way back down to 90. The situation went down something like this: What the...? Now 94 bid. Pick up the phone, call my trader, "Sell 6,000, ASWX, market." Done...somewhat lower. But still not holding. Aaaaaargh! Pick up the phone, call my trader, "Sell 6,000 shares at the market, go, just hit the bids!" A minute goes by and the trader calls back, "Greg, man, nobody's home on this thing...no buyers anywhere." Bidding 90. The stock finally holds, I get filled at the low; ten minutes later the stock lifts and closes for a small gain on the day--up 5 3/4 points from where I sold my last lot of 6,000 (d). That was fun...not! But I had no choice. Although my final exit point ended up being the low of the day, I didn't know that. All I know is the stock hit my predetermined stop-loss (actually moved right though it) and that's all that mattered. Okay, day's over. Move on. The stock hangs in there for another day, closing down marginally the following day. All right, let's reset our pivot-price to 102 5/8--the intra-day high on the day I got "whipsawed." Voila! After holding within its handle for a day, the stock breaks out again. And I buy it back crossing 102 5/8. As I'm writing this piece on Mar. 13, Active Software was the only stock in my portfolio that not only resisted the Nasdaq Composite's 141-point decline, it actually rallied 25 points from its down opening to a new all-time high. Now there's a situation I can live with. Actually, as I watched the stock do a 180 the first day I bought it, I thought about what may have moved it so dramatically. Perhaps the stock fell into the hands of several day-traders that broke it out before it was really ready? I don't know. But it was very unusual. Nonetheless, if this was the case, and the stock actually held tight within its basing pattern, then it all made sense to me. And if I understand what may have happened, it makes it all the more easier to step right back up to the plate. Should you be able to do this with little experience in the market? Let's just say, if you do, then you're light years ahead of where I was when I began trading stocks many years ago. It literally took me years to get the nerve to step right back up to the plate after whiffing on three straight fast balls like this. Through continuous post-analysis of all of your mistakes, though, you'll find that the light at the end of the tunnel really is an opening and not the headlights of an oncoming train. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout Whipsaws Date: 22 Mar 2000 14:49:37 -0700 Thanks for posting Mary, An interesting article and a good lesson to learn. Ziggy Mary Keener wrote: > Anyone on the board have a similar experience? > > Mary > > Handling Breakout Whipsaws By Greg Kuhn > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair" Subject: [CANSLIM] RE:Charles Dille Date: 22 Mar 2000 17:56:06 -0600 To Charles Dille drop Me a line with your email address. We Have A Canslim Group In Dallas. -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Charles Dille Sent: Wednesday, March 22, 2000 11:16 AM Hi everyone, I go by Charlie and live in the Dallas area. I am relatively new to investing and I am actively researching and implementing the CANSLIM method of investing. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Charles Dille Date: 22 Mar 2000 16:42:11 -0700 Hi Charlie, Welcome to the group. Ziggy Charles Dille wrote: > Hi everyone, I go by Charlie and live in the Dallas area. I am = > relatively new to investing and I am actively researching and = > implementing the CANSLIM method of investing. > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TTN & SAWS Date: 22 Mar 2000 17:22:15 -0700 TTN (IBD 76 95 ABA) appears to be working on the right side of a cup and would need to form a downward sloping handle and break out from that handle on strong volume. The buy point or correct pivot point would be 1/8 of a point above the high of the handle (which at present we don't know). SAWS (IBD 97 84 AAC) has been in a downtrend the past 5 or so weeks and may be bottoming and starting to come off it's bottom...I do not see a CANSLIM buy point at this time...there may be somewhat of an entry point at 1/8 of a point above the high of the middle of the small "W" pattern formed at the bottom if accompanied by strong volume (+150% of average daily volume)... but I don't believe this is CANSLIM because it is so far below its previous high of 93 1/2 set only 2 1/2 months ago. I am more inclined to say this stock is starting to work on the right side of a cup. As such I don't as yet see a correct buy point on this one. I would suggest you spend a lot of time looking at charts...after awhile they start making sense...at least some of them...and then you act on those (the one's that make sense--pattern [base], price and volume). Of course, this is after you have qualified the stock from a fundamental standpoint. I also suggest reading and re-reading and re-reading and etc. Wm O'Neil's books on "How To Make Money In Stocks" and "24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success". Just my 2 cents worth. Best regards, Ziggy Charles Dille wrote: > Titan, Nyse. & Sawtek, Nasdaq > I have been watching these two stocks and would like some of your thoughts > regarding the technicals on them. Do they look like they have reached the > buy point? > > Thanks for any input. > > Charlie > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TTN & SAWS Date: 22 Mar 2000 21:34:41 -0700 TTN is forming a nice base, I'm not sure that last weeks runup is ideal, you actually want to see a downward sloping handle form. Looks like it may want to breakout from the current pattern, still might work out ok, although not quite the ideal formation. SAWS doesn't seem to be doing anything after a pretty nice runup all fall, it is still many weeks away from forming any sort of base, maybe what it is doing now is the start of a cup, but it isn't there yet. On 22 Mar 00, at 11:17, Charles Dille wrote: > Titan, Nyse. & Sawtek, Nasdaq > I have been watching these two stocks and would like some of your thoughts > regarding the technicals on them. Do they look like they have reached the > buy point? > > Thanks for any input. > > Charlie > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jeff.salisbury@xmission.com Date: 22 Mar 2000 23:23:09 -0700 <20000323043245.VIDP10526.mtiwmhc22.worldnet.att.net@b8c9y5.worldnet.att.net> for ; Thu, 23 Mar 2000 04:32:45 +0000 Message-Id: <4.3.0.20000322203125.00a989c0@postoffice.worldnet.att.net> X-Sender: hirji@postoffice.worldnet.att.net X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 4.3 In-Reply-To: <039d01bf91cc$362df280$0f02000a@txw> Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed Tom, Can I have please DGO web site address. Thank you, Talib At 12:54 PM 3/19/00 -0500, you wrote: >The sharp correction over the past week in Nasdaq did some >substantial damage, and likely it will take a week or two to >fix for CANSLIMers. Most stocks on this week's list ended >up well under their recent highs, even tho on Monday/Tuesday >they were still within 5%. > >Overall, the list by Friday was back to about where it had >been, 129 stocks for the current week vs 154 the prior week >and 132 the week before that. But due the "left side of the >funnel" for most of them, I found few worth watching for >now. Here's the margin comments: > >VRTS - nice recovery >MVSN - nice c&h if the handle wasn't so high >ORCL - B1+ >CLFY - B2 >MCRL - B1 >NT - breakout from B2 >PRLX - B5 on B3 >LTRE - B2 >SUNW - B5+ >CSCO - B3+ >INDYY - B2 >ASF - B2+ >INTL - breakout failed, base @ 40 >BCE - B2+ >ACTL - B3 >AMAT - B1 >ROG - B1 >RYAAY - B1 > >Enjoy, > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > >- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Charles Dille Date: 23 Mar 2000 01:21:11 -0500 Hi Charlie, Welcome to the group, it's a great place to learn and share ideas. Don't be afraid to stick some of your picks out there and invite feedback. You will learn from it, esp if you explain why you believe your picks, and entry points, are good ones. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, March 22, 2000 11:42 AM Hi everyone, I go by Charlie and live in the Dallas area. I am = relatively new to investing and I am actively researching and = implementing the CANSLIM method of investing. - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "mikelu" Subject: [CANSLIM] RE: Date: 22 Mar 2000 23:21:29 -0800 dailygraphs.com -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of jeff.salisbury@xmission.com Sent: Wednesday, March 22, 2000 10:23 PM <20000323043245.VIDP10526.mtiwmhc22.worldnet.att.net@b8c9y5.worldnet.att.net > for ; Thu, 23 Mar 2000 04:32:45 +0000 Message-Id: <4.3.0.20000322203125.00a989c0@postoffice.worldnet.att.net> X-Sender: hirji@postoffice.worldnet.att.net X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 4.3 In-Reply-To: <039d01bf91cc$362df280$0f02000a@txw> Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed Tom, Can I have please DGO web site address. Thank you, Talib At 12:54 PM 3/19/00 -0500, you wrote: >The sharp correction over the past week in Nasdaq did some >substantial damage, and likely it will take a week or two to >fix for CANSLIMers. Most stocks on this week's list ended >up well under their recent highs, even tho on Monday/Tuesday >they were still within 5%. > >Overall, the list by Friday was back to about where it had >been, 129 stocks for the current week vs 154 the prior week >and 132 the week before that. But due the "left side of the >funnel" for most of them, I found few worth watching for >now. Here's the margin comments: > >VRTS - nice recovery >MVSN - nice c&h if the handle wasn't so high >ORCL - B1+ >CLFY - B2 >MCRL - B1 >NT - breakout from B2 >PRLX - B5 on B3 >LTRE - B2 >SUNW - B5+ >CSCO - B3+ >INDYY - B2 >ASF - B2+ >INTL - breakout failed, base @ 40 >BCE - B2+ >ACTL - B3 >AMAT - B1 >ROG - B1 >RYAAY - B1 > >Enjoy, > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > >- - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: chris dempsey Subject: [CANSLIM]Renewing IBD Subscription Date: 23 Mar 2000 07:09:09 -0500 (EST) I called IBD the other day to renew my subscription. When I told the man on the phone that I wanted a three-year subscription, he told me I was going to be a millionaire soon. After a silence of not being sure what I wanted to say next, I said "Are you using the CANSLIM method." His answer was no, and he went on to tell me that he liked to buy the giants of the industry, and gave me two examples WMT TXN. He added that he liked to hold them for a long time. I then asked him, "What about the other people in the office?" And his answer was something like this: That most of them were using the CANSLIM method. And that they all traded a lot. This conversation reminded me of a recent post by Johan, that said something like this: I'll bet even WON wishes he could hold a stock for a long while. It just may be that these long holds are few and far between. ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: chris dempsey Subject: Subject: [CANSLIM] RE:Charles Dille Date: 23 Mar 2000 07:16:24 -0500 (EST) Please tell us about your CANSLIM group in Dallas. Do you know if there are others across the country? How often do you get together? Do you think it is helpful? Etc., etc., etc. Sent: Wednesday, March 22, 2000 5:56 PM To Charles Dille drop Me a line with your email address. We Have A Canslim Group In Dallas. ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: chris dempsey Subject: Subject: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day? Date: 23 Mar 2000 07:49:36 -0500 (EST) Maybe I am confused here, but did we ever get a NASD sell signal? The largest cluster of distribution days that I can find since Nov 1 is three. I have found in WON's writings that you need four or five days. In a different place he wrote that you need four days. Also the way that I am reading it is that when you do get this signal you start looking to get out. Don't dump everything right then, but don't wait long. In investors corner just a few days ago it said that Kuhn had gotten out of a stock on the first distribution day of this recent three day cluster, and the example they gave had good reason. But the article made it sound like he was mostly or all in cash. There have been three NASD dips this year. I have been more or less fully invested since Nov 1, and have held no three letter stocks since mid or late January since the DOW did throw five distribution days. I did just buy one late last week. My percent drops from the top in the three dips were: 11.96, 16.32, & 18.09. Each time my account bounced back and went higher. Well I am still waiting on this last time. High this year 48.78% current 47.32%. Are these acceptable dips or is there a way to prevent them. I would encourage all thoughts and comments. Sent: Tuesday, March 21, 2000 3:54 PM Today was day 4 of the current Nasdaq rally that began with last thursday's turn-around. Today the Naz was up 100.71 points (+ 2.1%) on volume (1.749B shares) that increased from yesterday's volume (1.526B shares). Because today's Nasdaq low of 4467.53 did not undercut last thursday's low of 4455.10, I think this was a valid Naz Follow Thru ( F/T) day. Do others concur or disagree? Thanks, Ziggy ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeff Salisbury Subject: [CANSLIM] [Fwd: email address] Date: 23 Mar 2000 05:54:34 -0700 -------- Original Message -------- mailto:chdille@home.com I would like to hear more about the Dallas Canslim group. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: chris dempsey Subject: Re:[CANSLIM] Breakout Whipsaws Date: 23 Mar 2000 07:58:04 -0500 (EST) Thanks for the great post, Mary. I've been there but normally I'm already invested in something else. Sent: Wednesday, March 22, 2000 11:44 AM Anyone on the board have a similar experience? Mary Handling Breakout Whipsaws By Greg Kuhn Ever wonder what to do with a stock you just bought on a multi-week base breakout that hits your stop-loss the same day you bought it? As unnerving as it is....... ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: chris dempsey Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day? Date: 23 Mar 2000 08:09:01 -0500 (EST) Tom, please don't take this personally but doesn't WON say to ignore all the noise, and let the market tell you what to do? Doesn't he say if you vacillate and rationalize you will not come out ahead in this game? You must act quickly with what the market is telling you. Did I miss something in his books & tapes? Sent: Wednesday, March 22, 2000 1:42 AM Hi Ziggy, My first inclination was to agree with it being a follow thru day. What bothers me with this conclusion, however, is the quality of follow thru. Checking the indexes I follow, I find too many of them only had average volume today (S&P500; Naz; NYSE Composite; R2000, to name a few). Dow 30 did exceed daily average, but was confined to a few sectors. I am also concerned about the advance/decline on Naz, a 2:3 ratio even tho volume was a 3/2 ratio, so the big cap, highly liquid stocks made that 2%. I would have expected far more robust volume on a 2% day, even with the sideline sitting until the Feds announcements at 2:15PM. Had yesterday's volume been typical, I am not sure today's volume would have even exceeded, and that could be a major chink in the "follow thru" argument. Tom Worley ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: chris dempsey Subject: Re:[CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence? Date: 23 Mar 2000 08:24:12 -0500 (EST) Tim, other than FEAR what method did you use to get out at -6.5% below high. Unless you had just gotten into all new positions and used 6.5 as your limit. Or just noticed an exhaustion gap on nearly all of your stocks I'm not sure how I see that this is possible unless you add fear to the formula which might not be such a bad idea. Sorry it took so long to answer your post but I have been spending four to five hours per day on CANSLIM + work + commute + family. Yesterday I left work early so that my son and I could go to the dentist. I had some extra time this morning. Sent: Wednesday, March 15, 2000 2:47 PM Bottom line: I am 70% + cash and am not buying today. 6.5% loss so far since my all-time high last Thursday. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: chris dempsey Subject: Re:[CANSLIM] Group Strenght-Brokers Date: 23 Mar 2000 08:41:33 -0500 (EST) The following I keep track of on the 1st and 16th of each month. Ex. 3i/00 = 3/16/00 & 3/00 = 3/1/00. Upload this to a spread sheet and I think you will see what is moving. The industry groups listed are what I am focusing on for the rest of the month. Sent: Wednesday, March 22, 2000 8:18 AM The IBD group strength for the Finance-Investment Brokers group continues to creep up...as of today's IBD it has moved to position 38 and therefore an "A" Group ranking. Is anybody following any other groups that are moving up ?...Please share...Thanks Ziggy SpecificIndustryGroup,3i/00,3/00,2i/00,2/00,1i/00,1/00,12i/99,12/99,11i/99,11/99,10i/99,10/99 Medical-Biomed/Genetics,1,1,1,1,1,9,17,18,17,13,7,7 Computer Softwr-Security,2,6,5,7,4,5,6,5,8,11,29,112 Computer-Local Networks,3,5,7,8,6,4,3,2,2,2,1,1 Telecommunications-Equip,4,2,6,6,8,8,10,7,6,6,5,4 Computer Softwr-Enterpse,5,4,2,4,5,3,5,3,4,3,2,6 Internet-Ntwk Sec/Sltns,6,3,4,3,3,2,2,4,3,4,11,43 Computer-Memory Devices,7,14,17,15,15,13,8,12,11,9,9,13 Computer-Peripheral Eq,8,11,12,12,14,17,16,15,15,14,13,19 Elec-Laser Sys/Component,9,7,21,28,27,36,37,46,40,47,41,39 Elec-Semiconductor Mfg,11,10,8,13,11,12,14,11,7,7,4,2 Elec-Semiconductor Equip,12,12,9,19,17,19,23,17,12,8,12,14 Computer Softwre-Desktop,13,26,10,5,7,6,4,8,9,10,8,3 Computer-Optical Recogtn,14,13,16,18,20,18,19,19,16,23,32,44 Computer-Integrated Syst,15,21,22,25,24,25,22,26,41,37,36,25 Elec Products-Misc,16,20,25,24,23,20,21,23,18,17,15,22 Medical-Ethical Drugs,20,8,13,21,22,29,35,29,30,27,24,31 Telecommunications-Svcs,21,22,19,22,21,24,27,25,22,41,64,60 Computer-Graphics,23,27,27,29,30,35,38,41,51,89,79,120 Medical-Products,24,18,24,23,26,34,33,36,37,25,19,16 Elec Measrng Instruments,25,23,26,30,32,39,46,53,55,31,26,24 Computer Software-Fin,28,29,33,33,31,28,28,31,39,50,71,99 Comml Svcs-Security/Sfty,29,30,32,36,44,47,48,62,64,62,68,89 Houshold-Audio/Video,32,31,37,37,36,37,40,33,35,43,48,66 Electrical-Control Instr,36,40,35,40,50,61,85,74,141,117,104,61 Medical/Dental/Serv,39,39,49,52,63,69,70,89,73,54,98,117 Elec-Military Systems,40,35,36,38,33,41,39,42,46,53,56,62 Computer Software-Med,43,38,30,35,54,45,55,79,154,110,58,63 Leisure-Movies & Related,44,53,57,57,72,63,54,65,62,92,82,109 Finance-Investment Bkrs,45,56,52,51,76,65,65,80,132,158,174,123 Real Estate Operations,47,91,90,118,175,130,148,153,135,126,118,128 Medical-Generic Drugs,48,47,50,53,74,110,146,133,144,94,149,98 Finance-Publ Inv Fd-Frn,52,51,51,50,49,54,51,50,59,78,105,107 Diversified Operations,54,57,56,67,65,74,87,92,111,156,111,110 Pollution Control-Svcs,55,49,69,81,106,146,121,123,79,68,75,84 Leisure-Photo Equip/Rel,56,71,72,115,135,148,163,166,158,163,135,88 Bldg-Heavy Const,57,65,73,97,95,107,116,110,122,79,74,75 Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip,62,66,68,79,85,92,130,124,93,123,108,58 Finance-Investment Mgmt,63,64,67,70,68,77,73,63,98,120,132,147 Comml Svcs-Schools,66,69,60,77,117,75,82,122,153,143,175,191 Auto/Truck-Replace Prts,67,50,66,130,180,185,160,171,170,168,155,171 Leisure-Products,69,79,80,83,114,101,94,112,101,119,106,141 Oil&Gas-Field Services,70,75,102,122,104,106,150,100,100,152,77,34 Medical-Whsle Drg/Sund,73,70,108,133,118,133,177,186,188,187,173,178 Machinery-Gen Industrial,76,82,77,82,86,89,81,99,140,147,150,104 Cosmetics/Personal Care,77,77,94,92,99,147,111,154,149,133,154,162 Transportation-Ship,78,102,115,96,137,135,138,130,137,141,97,90 Office-Equip & Automatn,81,74,103,152,170,127,151,158,148,177,117,165 Aerospace/Defense Eqp,83,78,85,107,110,118,122,90,105,129,96,121 Machine-Tools & Rel Prod,88,99,120,125,91,88,84,109,114,130,126,111 Retail-Misc/Diversified,91,106,105,104,120,134,152,148,162,131,142,138 Media-Periodicals,92,84,83,85,123,150,156,167,167,167,170,183 Banks-Foreign,95,87,82,84,88,96,115,113,123,135,144,151 Oil&Gas-Prod/Pipeline,96,101,110,126,132,155,181,151,112,90,85,95 ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day? Date: 23 Mar 2000 08:49:04 -0500 Hi Ziggy, If I have been sitting in cash, I would not have committed much on this as a sign of a follow thru day. Guess I am getting more conservative in my old age. Obviously, Naz has done well since, but I couldn't expect that from Tuesday's action. And I don't do anything quickly any more, esp investing. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Thursday, March 23, 2000 8:09 AM Tom, please don't take this personally but doesn't WON say to ignore all the noise, and let the market tell you what to do? Doesn't he say if you vacillate and rationalize you will not come out ahead in this game? You must act quickly with what the market is telling you. Did I miss something in his books & tapes? Sent: Wednesday, March 22, 2000 1:42 AM Hi Ziggy, My first inclination was to agree with it being a follow thru day. What bothers me with this conclusion, however, is the quality of follow thru. Checking the indexes I follow, I find too many of them only had average volume today (S&P500; Naz; NYSE Composite; R2000, to name a few). Dow 30 did exceed daily average, but was confined to a few sectors. I am also concerned about the advance/decline on Naz, a 2:3 ratio even tho volume was a 3/2 ratio, so the big cap, highly liquid stocks made that 2%. I would have expected far more robust volume on a 2% day, even with the sideline sitting until the Feds announcements at 2:15PM. Had yesterday's volume been typical, I am not sure today's volume would have even exceeded, and that could be a major chink in the "follow thru" argument. Tom Worley ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: chris dempsey Subject: Re:[CANSLIM] who pulled the plug? Date: 23 Mar 2000 09:01:02 -0500 (EST) I have difficulty posting because the place that I work sends out all e-mail as html format and this is not excepted on this post. After a long time trying and talking with the IT department where I work and Jeff the owner of CANSLIM it was suggested that I sign up for e-mail at a web site and have all mail forwarded to me at work. This works well for reading them. However, I have also been bounced several times and had to re-sign up each time. My only thought is that the web site is down when the mail is sent. But for me posting is more difficult. I have to copy the e-mail I would like to respond to, to a .txt file. Open that file, add to it, open a web browser go to the e-mail site, copy paste to, subject, body and then send. I sure wish I could hit the reply button as with all other mail. Oh well. At least there is a work around. Sent: Saturday, March 18, 2000 2:04 AM I just finished re-subscribing. I've been a long time subscriber to the digest and apparently someone pulled the plug on my subscription due to bounced email. The odd thing is that I have been getting copious amounts of email all week and no one else has complained about problems sending me email. I've got to wonder if it is my email provider (yahoo) or is there some other problem. Has anyone else on the list had this problem? ===== Bob Raible Sunny San Jose,CA __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: Subject: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day? Date: 23 Mar 2000 08:28:05 -0700 Hi Chris, I don't believe we got a NASD sell signal per se because the correction and downtrend came so fast...My selling of some stocks was primarily related to the price volume action of the individual stocks alone. For example, I bot heavily on 2/8 when we had a NASD F/T day around then. I bot as follows: VTSS purchased at 48 3/8...from that point the stock started running and I just let it go...at some point I decided to start watching for topping action in the stock in order to lock in some very good profit. The last 6 days in Feb the stock price moved from about 70 to trade as high as 115 (on 3/1)...on that day the stock price opened at 106 3/8 then went up to 115, then retraced all of that daily gain and was trading at 106 just before the market close...I interpreted this as a climax top and a reversal of this stock's run and sold at 106 that day just before the close. VTSS then began a downtrend that lasted about 9 days and reached a low at that point of about 77 or a drop of 33% from its high of 115 just 9 days earlier. I locked in a profit of 119% in about 3 weeks. ETEK was purchased at 206 (also on 2/8)...and was sold on 3/2 for 285. Because of the topping action I saw in VTSS which was definately a leading stock, I became a little more concerned about locking in other profits and as such sold ETEK for a 3 week gain of 38%. SEBL was purchased at 103 1/8 (also on 2/8)...and was sold on 3/14 for 155 ( for a 3 week gain of 50%) when it had a sharp reversal of its uptrend. I held SEBL longer than the other two because it was performing while the other two reached earlier tops When it turned I sold...because of my heightened alert from the other sales as well as what was then happening to the NASD which was by then in a downtrend. Between 3/14 and 3/16, I bot a couple of issues, but was stopped out within a day or three with an 11% loss in one and break even in the other after it quickly had run up 31% and then back down. Another sign to me that this is not the time to be agressive. At that point we were in a correction phase in the NASD with absolutely no idea of how long or how severe it would be...I decided to not make any more buys until a rally was started along with a valid F/T day. WON says that once a downtrend has started (and there is no question it had...down over 10% from NASD's high) to make no new purchases until a valid F/T day. The fact that we didn't have 4 or 5 distribution days before the NASD started its downtrend does not mean we were not in a downtrend. Note: with my above sales I went to about a 65% cash position...I was still holding CSCO (which was continuing to perform well) and SCH (puchased on 3/2) and also performing well. We got our F/T day on 3/21 and at that time I purchased SEBL at 121 1/2 and VTSS at 87 13/16...am now about 40 % cash and looking to invest it this week. This is really the first time I really focused on when to sell stocks with good gains coupled with a good stategy for getting back in when the time is right and it has (at least this time) worked out well. In the past, I would buy a stock and watch it run to a good gain...not sell and watch it retrace all that gain or at other times sell a stock with a good gain at the right time, but not having any idea on how and when to get back in...watch it go down after my sale and then take off again to fly past my original sell price. So in my case at least, I started selling because of individual stock price action not because of any perceived NASD topping...however once the NASD was in a downtrend, no new buying until a F/T. I think the 4 or 5 days of distribution becomes more important when your individual stocks are performing well and have not given you specific sell signals and you notice the topping action in the general market...this would then be an indication that you should start lightening up before your stocks turn down...because if the market turns down it will probably carry your stocks along with it. This whole CANSLIM strategy is to try to put the odds of your success as much in your favor as possible. Have a great day, Ziggy chris dempsey wrote: > Maybe I am confused here, but did we ever get a NASD sell signal? The > largest cluster of distribution days that I can find since Nov 1 is three. I > have found in WON's writings that you need four or five days. In a different > place he wrote that you need four days. Also the way that I am reading it is > that when you do get this signal you start looking to get out. Don't dump > everything right then, but don't wait long. > > In investors corner just a few days ago it said that Kuhn had gotten out of > a stock on the first distribution day of this recent three day cluster, and > the example they gave had good reason. But the article made it sound like he > was mostly or all in cash. > > There have been three NASD dips this year. I have been more or less fully > invested since Nov 1, and have held no three letter stocks since mid or late > January since the DOW did throw five distribution days. I did just buy one > late last week. > > My percent drops from the top in the three dips were: 11.96, 16.32, & 18.09. > Each time my account bounced back and went higher. Well I am still waiting > on this last time. High this year 48.78% current 47.32%. > > Are these acceptable dips or is there a way to prevent them. > > I would encourage all thoughts and comments. > > From: wroblewski@uswest.net > Sent: Tuesday, March 21, 2000 3:54 PM > To: canslim list > Subject: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day? > > Today was day 4 of the current Nasdaq rally that began with > last thursday's turn-around. > > Today the Naz was up 100.71 points (+ 2.1%) on volume > (1.749B shares) that increased from yesterday's volume > (1.526B shares). > > Because today's Nasdaq low of 4467.53 did not undercut last > thursday's low of 4455.10, I think this was a valid Naz > Follow Thru ( F/T) day. > > Do others concur or disagree? > > Thanks, > Ziggy > > ______________________________________________ > FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com > Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re:[CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence? Date: 23 Mar 2000 09:05:32 -0800 Just so happens that it should have been about -10% for the CANSLIM trades since they all had 15% trailing stops last Monday (some were already closing in on the stops when I topped out; funny how that always seems to happen before a correction). I thought that myself after I posted that. -6.5% includes my mutual funds and 500+ shares of MCD. At 08:24 AM 3/23/00 -0500, you wrote: >Tim, other than FEAR what method did you use to get out at -6.5% below high. >Unless you had just gotten into all new positions and used 6.5 as your >limit. Or just noticed an exhaustion gap on nearly all of your stocks I'm >not sure how I see that this is possible unless you add fear to the formula >which might not be such a bad idea. > >Sorry it took so long to answer your post but I have been spending four to >five hours per day on CANSLIM + work + commute + family. Yesterday I left >work early so that my son and I could go to the dentist. I had some extra >time this morning. > >From: Tim Fisher [tim@OreRockOn.com] >Sent: Wednesday, March 15, 2000 2:47 PM >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: [CANSLIM] These are the sounds of silence? > > >Bottom line: I am 70% + cash and am not buying today. 6.5% loss so far >since my all-time high last Thursday. > > >Tim Fisher >Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > >Tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW: http://OreRockOn.com >See naked fish and rocks! > >______________________________________________ >FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com >Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup > > >- Tim Fisher tim@OreRockOn.com Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists Web Pages http://OreRockOn.com/ - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: [CANSLIM] CSCO & QCOM Date: 23 Mar 2000 11:04:25 -0700 CSCO has broken out of about a six week base on very strong volume...may already be too far extended as it is up around 5 today. Three hour volume already at 38M compared to an ADV of around 27M. Looks very strong. QCOM has been in a flat base the past 7 weeks and appears to be getting ready to B/O. The high during this base was 147 1/2 (occurred twice) so a correct pivot point would be 147 5/8. Stock currently up 7 on volume running about 50% over ADV (at least for the first 3 hours of trading). This may be worth watching today for a B/O. One caveat though is that the B/O if it does occur is about 25% below the previous high of 200 which occurred on a spike the end of December '99. Because that high occurred on a climax spike, I tend to disregard that high number. I am not sure whether or not this would be kosher in CANSLIM strategy, but I think it may be. Anyone else have ideas on this one? Have a great day, Ziggy - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Pritish Shah Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSCO & QCOM Date: 23 Mar 2000 10:16:08 -0800 (PST) Don't forget that the ADV is reflecting pre-split ADV. The post-split ADV will be twice. So looks like it is on track for the ADV today. It is not breaking out on strong volume. Regards, Shah On Thu, 23 Mar 2000 wroblewski@uswest.net wrote: > CSCO has broken out of about a six week base on very strong > volume...may already be too far extended as it is up around > 5 today. Three hour volume already at 38M compared to an ADV > of around 27M. Looks very strong. > > QCOM has been in a flat base the past 7 weeks and appears to > be getting ready to B/O. The high during this base was 147 > 1/2 (occurred twice) so a correct pivot point would be 147 > 5/8. Stock currently up 7 on volume running about 50% over > ADV (at least for the first 3 hours of trading). This may > be worth watching today for a B/O. One caveat though is > that the B/O if it does occur is about 25% below the > previous high of 200 which occurred on a spike the end of > December '99. Because that high occurred on a climax spike, > I tend to disregard that high number. I am not sure whether > or not this would be kosher in CANSLIM strategy, but I think > it may be. Anyone else have ideas on this one? > > Have a great day, > > Ziggy > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSCO & QCOM Date: 23 Mar 2000 11:41:07 -0700 Thanks for your comments Shah, I had no idea that average volume is doubled along with a stock price splitting 2/1...is this really true? I will be watching Bigcharts and IBD over the next few days to see if the split also adjusts historical ADV. Interesting. Assuming this is true for a moment, then ADV for CSCO would be 54M instead of 27M...current volume at 50.1M with 2 1/2 hours to go would still indicate very strong volume (on a 81M pace if volume continues at the same rate the last 2 1/2 hours)...still +150 ADV. Regards, Ziggy Pritish Shah wrote: > Don't forget that the ADV is reflecting pre-split ADV. The post-split ADV > will be twice. So looks like it is on track for the ADV today. It is not > breaking out on strong volume. > > Regards, > Shah > > On Thu, 23 Mar 2000 wroblewski@uswest.net wrote: > > > CSCO has broken out of about a six week base on very strong > > volume...may already be too far extended as it is up around > > 5 today. Three hour volume already at 38M compared to an ADV > > of around 27M. Looks very strong. > > > > QCOM has been in a flat base the past 7 weeks and appears to > > be getting ready to B/O. The high during this base was 147 > > 1/2 (occurred twice) so a correct pivot point would be 147 > > 5/8. Stock currently up 7 on volume running about 50% over > > ADV (at least for the first 3 hours of trading). This may > > be worth watching today for a B/O. One caveat though is > > that the B/O if it does occur is about 25% below the > > previous high of 200 which occurred on a spike the end of > > December '99. Because that high occurred on a climax spike, > > I tend to disregard that high number. I am not sure whether > > or not this would be kosher in CANSLIM strategy, but I think > > it may be. Anyone else have ideas on this one? > > > > Have a great day, > > > > Ziggy > > > > > > - > > > > > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Pritish Shah Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSCO & QCOM Date: 23 Mar 2000 10:49:52 -0800 (PST) Ziggy, You are right, the volume is on a pace to make it to 81M by COB. Last Breakout had a pre-split volume of 52M (104M post-split). Consider ADV as % of outstanding shares and then take the same % and apply to the new outstanding shares and va.. la.. I too was confused at first but it sometimes takes a day or two for the websites to reflect the change. Example from CSCO below. Split happened in July. Take a look at monthly volume before and after (approx 2x after split). Regards, Shah Note: the table taken from quote.yahoo.com Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj. Close* Feb 00 109.7812 133.9375 109.5625 132.1875 32,237,900 132.1875 Jan 00 109.9375 110.25 100 109.50 29,997,600 109.50 Dec 99 90.375 107.1875 89.1875 107.125 12,567,200 107.125 Nov 99 73 92.625 72.375 89.1875 18,736,200 89.1875 Oct 99 67.9375 74.50 67 74 22,854,900 74 Sep 99 68.1875 69.125 66.375 68.5625 17,123,200 68.5625 Aug 99 61.6875 68.625 61.25 67.8125 17,258,900 67.8125 Jul 99 65.0625 65.125 62 62.125 18,468,200 62.125 Jun 99 109.0625 109.375 61.625 64.4375 19,058,100 64.4375 Jun 99 2:1 Stock Split (befo May 99 113.75 114 106.50 109 8,832,000 54.50 Apr 99 110.50 114.25 108.125 114.0625 10,881,400 57.0312 Mar 99 97.75 112.50 96.50 109.5625 11,987,600 54.7812 Feb 99 98.25 98.375 95.50 97.8125 14,424,800 48.9062 On Thu, 23 Mar 2000 wroblewski@uswest.net wrote: > Thanks for your comments Shah, > > I had no idea that average volume is doubled along with a stock price > splitting 2/1...is this really true? > I will be watching Bigcharts and IBD over the next few days to see if the > split also adjusts historical ADV. Interesting. > > Assuming this is true for a moment, then ADV for CSCO would be 54M instead of > 27M...current volume at 50.1M with 2 1/2 hours to go would still indicate > very strong volume (on a 81M pace if volume continues at the same rate the > last 2 1/2 hours)...still +150 ADV. > > Regards, > > Ziggy > > Pritish Shah wrote: > > > Don't forget that the ADV is reflecting pre-split ADV. The post-split ADV > > will be twice. So looks like it is on track for the ADV today. It is not > > breaking out on strong volume. > > > > Regards, > > Shah > > > > On Thu, 23 Mar 2000 wroblewski@uswest.net wrote: > > > > > CSCO has broken out of about a six week base on very strong > > > volume...may already be too far extended as it is up around > > > 5 today. Three hour volume already at 38M compared to an ADV > > > of around 27M. Looks very strong. > > > > > > QCOM has been in a flat base the past 7 weeks and appears to > > > be getting ready to B/O. The high during this base was 147 > > > 1/2 (occurred twice) so a correct pivot point would be 147 > > > 5/8. Stock currently up 7 on volume running about 50% over > > > ADV (at least for the first 3 hours of trading). This may > > > be worth watching today for a B/O. One caveat though is > > > that the B/O if it does occur is about 25% below the > > > previous high of 200 which occurred on a spike the end of > > > December '99. Because that high occurred on a climax spike, > > > I tend to disregard that high number. I am not sure whether > > > or not this would be kosher in CANSLIM strategy, but I think > > > it may be. Anyone else have ideas on this one? > > > > > > Have a great day, > > > > > > Ziggy > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > - > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] DSPG approaching pivot point Date: 23 Mar 2000 13:51:26 -0800 DSPG appears ready to finish a nice cup w/ handle. I've owned this one since March 13th, and it is quite volatile. To those eyeballing it with more self-discipline [to wait for the correct pivot], I believe the proper breakout would be around 58. As of 1:28 PM Thursday, it's getting close to 55. If I weren't already fully invested in DSPG and CSCO, I'd probably be putting in a stop BUY at 59 (assuming the volume starts to pick up as it approaches it's new all-time high). Although this stock has already exploded this year, it still has a very reasonable P/E [around 25] considering its peers in the communications equipment group. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: Subject: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day? Date: 23 Mar 2000 19:15:08 -0700 IBD discussed that there had been 2 or 3 days of Distribution on the NASDAQ sometime last week. The next day was solidly down on higher volume, so I counted that as 4 and decided to tighten my sell-points. This put me out of three of my holdings on Thursday and the other holding on Tuesday. How are most people handling this turn-around? I have purchased several stocks that based with the correction, in other words, 8-10 day bases. My reasoning is that it's impossible to form a 7 + week base during a 1 week correction. I'm not sure how this will work, but I went for stocks with good volume signals during the corrections and setting or close to new highs. Comments? Suggestions? At 07:49 AM 3/23/00 -0500, you wrote: >Maybe I am confused here, but did we ever get a NASD sell signal? The >largest cluster of distribution days that I can find since Nov 1 is three. I >have found in WON's writings that you need four or five days. In a different >place he wrote that you need four days. Also the way that I am reading it is >that when you do get this signal you start looking to get out. Don't dump >everything right then, but don't wait long. > >In investors corner just a few days ago it said that Kuhn had gotten out of >a stock on the first distribution day of this recent three day cluster, and >the example they gave had good reason. But the article made it sound like he >was mostly or all in cash. > >There have been three NASD dips this year. I have been more or less fully >invested since Nov 1, and have held no three letter stocks since mid or late >January since the DOW did throw five distribution days. I did just buy one >late last week. > >My percent drops from the top in the three dips were: 11.96, 16.32, & 18.09. >Each time my account bounced back and went higher. Well I am still waiting >on this last time. High this year 48.78% current 47.32%. > >Are these acceptable dips or is there a way to prevent them. > >I would encourage all thoughts and comments. > >From: wroblewski@uswest.net >Sent: Tuesday, March 21, 2000 3:54 PM >To: canslim list >Subject: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day? > >Today was day 4 of the current Nasdaq rally that began with >last thursday's turn-around. > >Today the Naz was up 100.71 points (+ 2.1%) on volume >(1.749B shares) that increased from yesterday's volume >(1.526B shares). > >Because today's Nasdaq low of 4467.53 did not undercut last >thursday's low of 4455.10, I think this was a valid Naz >Follow Thru ( F/T) day. > >Do others concur or disagree? > >Thanks, >Ziggy > >______________________________________________ >FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com >Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Charles Braves Subject: [CANSLIM] JDSU & EPS Rating ? Date: 23 Mar 2000 18:21:10 -0800 (PST) Can someone help me understand why JDSU has an EPS rating of 98 yet it hasn't had a positive earning? Maybe I am missing something, can someone explain? Thanks, Jim. Seffner, Florida. _____________________________________________________________ Get Free eMail at http://www.spinfinder.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: Subject: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day? Date: 23 Mar 2000 18:50:21 -0800 Earl, I bot the following partly based on % drop during the correction and distance from 52-week high: BVSN CHKP CMVT EMLX ISSX MERQ NTAP PMCS QLGC SEBL So far I am net negative but none have triggered a 15% stop on a closing basis. I have one trade left (sold XETA for a small profit) and really really want BRCM so I suppose I will put in an order for the open tomorrow. At 07:15 PM 3/23/00 -0700, you wrote: >IBD discussed that there had been 2 or 3 days of Distribution on the NASDAQ >sometime last week. The next day was solidly down on higher volume, so I >counted that as 4 and decided to tighten my sell-points. This put me out >of three of my holdings on Thursday and the other holding on Tuesday. > >How are most people handling this turn-around? I have purchased several >stocks that based with the correction, in other words, 8-10 day bases. My >reasoning is that it's impossible to form a 7 + week base during a 1 week >correction. I'm not sure how this will work, but I went for stocks with >good volume signals during the corrections and setting or close to new >highs. Comments? Suggestions? > >At 07:49 AM 3/23/00 -0500, you wrote: > >Maybe I am confused here, but did we ever get a NASD sell signal? The > >largest cluster of distribution days that I can find since Nov 1 is three. I > >have found in WON's writings that you need four or five days. In a different > >place he wrote that you need four days. Also the way that I am reading it is > >that when you do get this signal you start looking to get out. Don't dump > >everything right then, but don't wait long. > > > >In investors corner just a few days ago it said that Kuhn had gotten out of > >a stock on the first distribution day of this recent three day cluster, and > >the example they gave had good reason. But the article made it sound like he > >was mostly or all in cash. > > > >There have been three NASD dips this year. I have been more or less fully > >invested since Nov 1, and have held no three letter stocks since mid or late > >January since the DOW did throw five distribution days. I did just buy one > >late last week. > > > >My percent drops from the top in the three dips were: 11.96, 16.32, & 18.09. > >Each time my account bounced back and went higher. Well I am still waiting > >on this last time. High this year 48.78% current 47.32%. > > > >Are these acceptable dips or is there a way to prevent them. > > > >I would encourage all thoughts and comments. > > > >From: wroblewski@uswest.net > >Sent: Tuesday, March 21, 2000 3:54 PM > >To: canslim list > >Subject: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day? > > > >Today was day 4 of the current Nasdaq rally that began with > >last thursday's turn-around. > > > >Today the Naz was up 100.71 points (+ 2.1%) on volume > >(1.749B shares) that increased from yesterday's volume > >(1.526B shares). > > > >Because today's Nasdaq low of 4467.53 did not undercut last > >thursday's low of 4455.10, I think this was a valid Naz > >Follow Thru ( F/T) day. > > > >Do others concur or disagree? > > > >Thanks, > >Ziggy > > > >______________________________________________ > >FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com > >Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup > > > > > >- > > > > > > > > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] JDSU & EPS Rating ? Date: 23 Mar 2000 18:58:04 -0800 1Q00 +121% projected 2Q00 +90% projected Those are immensely positive Q0/Q-4 comparisons. Absolute value of earnings is irrelevant to the EPS ranking. P.S. earnings the past 5 quarters have been: +3c +5c +6c +7c +9c, FY00 - 40c FY99 - 18c so I don't see any negative numbers here anyway. At 06:21 PM 3/23/00 -0800, you wrote: >Can someone help me understand why JDSU has an EPS rating of 98 yet it >hasn't had a positive earning? Maybe I am missing something, can someone >explain? > > > >Thanks, > >Jim. > >Seffner, Florida. > >_____________________________________________________________ >Get Free eMail at http://www.spinfinder.com > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] JDSU & EPS Rating ? Date: 23 Mar 2000 20:05:49 -0700 IBD takes one-time charges out of the earnings estimates. I don't know the specifics on JDSU (and I probably should), but I would guess they had a big charge sometime last year. At 06:21 PM 3/23/00 -0800, you wrote: >Can someone help me understand why JDSU has an EPS rating of 98 yet it hasn't had a positive earning? Maybe I am missing something, can someone explain? > >Thanks, >Jim. >Seffner, Florida. > >_____________________________________________________________ >Get Free eMail at http://www.spinfinder.com > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: Subject: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day? Date: 23 Mar 2000 20:08:08 -0700 FYI, I have picked up the following this week: ETEK NT EMLX VRTS AMCC Both EMLX and VRTS gave up some ground after I bot them this morning, but are still clear of -8%. I am up slightly overall this week, mostly due to ETEK's runup today. At 06:50 PM 3/23/00 -0800, you wrote: >Earl, I bot the following partly based on % drop during the correction and >distance from 52-week high: > >BVSN CHKP CMVT EMLX ISSX MERQ NTAP PMCS QLGC SEBL > >So far I am net negative but none have triggered a 15% stop on a closing >basis. I have one trade left (sold XETA for a small profit) and really >really want BRCM so I suppose I will put in an order for the open tomorrow. > >At 07:15 PM 3/23/00 -0700, you wrote: >>IBD discussed that there had been 2 or 3 days of Distribution on the NASDAQ >>sometime last week. The next day was solidly down on higher volume, so I >>counted that as 4 and decided to tighten my sell-points. This put me out >>of three of my holdings on Thursday and the other holding on Tuesday. >> >>How are most people handling this turn-around? I have purchased several >>stocks that based with the correction, in other words, 8-10 day bases. My >>reasoning is that it's impossible to form a 7 + week base during a 1 week >>correction. I'm not sure how this will work, but I went for stocks with >>good volume signals during the corrections and setting or close to new >>highs. Comments? Suggestions? >> >>At 07:49 AM 3/23/00 -0500, you wrote: >> >Maybe I am confused here, but did we ever get a NASD sell signal? The >> >largest cluster of distribution days that I can find since Nov 1 is three. I >> >have found in WON's writings that you need four or five days. In a different >> >place he wrote that you need four days. Also the way that I am reading it is >> >that when you do get this signal you start looking to get out. Don't dump >> >everything right then, but don't wait long. >> > >> >In investors corner just a few days ago it said that Kuhn had gotten out of >> >a stock on the first distribution day of this recent three day cluster, and >> >the example they gave had good reason. But the article made it sound like he >> >was mostly or all in cash. >> > >> >There have been three NASD dips this year. I have been more or less fully >> >invested since Nov 1, and have held no three letter stocks since mid or late >> >January since the DOW did throw five distribution days. I did just buy one >> >late last week. >> > >> >My percent drops from the top in the three dips were: 11.96, 16.32, & 18.09. >> >Each time my account bounced back and went higher. Well I am still waiting >> >on this last time. High this year 48.78% current 47.32%. >> > >> >Are these acceptable dips or is there a way to prevent them. >> > >> >I would encourage all thoughts and comments. >> > >> >From: wroblewski@uswest.net >> >Sent: Tuesday, March 21, 2000 3:54 PM >> >To: canslim list >> >Subject: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day? >> > >> >Today was day 4 of the current Nasdaq rally that began with >> >last thursday's turn-around. >> > >> >Today the Naz was up 100.71 points (+ 2.1%) on volume >> >(1.749B shares) that increased from yesterday's volume >> >(1.526B shares). >> > >> >Because today's Nasdaq low of 4467.53 did not undercut last >> >thursday's low of 4455.10, I think this was a valid Naz >> >Follow Thru ( F/T) day. >> > >> >Do others concur or disagree? >> > >> >Thanks, >> >Ziggy >> > >> >______________________________________________ >> >FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com >> >Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup >> > >> > >> >- >> > >> > >> > >> >> >>- > >Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists >Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >PFB Information >mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: Subject: [CANSLIM] NAZ F/T day? Date: 23 Mar 2000 21:24:23 -0700 On 23 Mar 00, at 19:15, Earl Setser wrote: > How are most people handling this turn-around? I have purchased several > stocks that based with the correction, in other words, 8-10 day bases. My > reasoning is that it's impossible to form a 7 + week base during a 1 week > correction. I'm not sure how this will work, but I went for stocks with > good volume signals during the corrections and setting or close to new > highs. Comments? Suggestions? Probably ok to buy into something that shows strength in the face of the fairly sharp sell of we had last week, I noticed that CSCO and INTC barely flinched when the nasdaq was getting whacked last week, then moved up this week when the market started up. I think this is probably more suitable for short term trading - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Mary Keener Subject: [CANSLIM] DSPG approaching pivot point Date: 24 Mar 2000 06:24:37 -0800 Don't like the low volume in the past few days. What do you think? Mary - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Charles Braves Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] JDSU & EPS Rating ? Date: 24 Mar 2000 06:29:54 -0800 (PST) Tim, I looked-up at the EPS for 1999 and is negative -.54, for 1998 is negative -.30 per share ? Again, where are you getting this information? Thanks, Jim. Company Performance ($mil) Revenue EPS Dividend Rate 1999 282.7 (0.54) 0.00 1998 175.8 (0.30) 0.00 1997 107.0 (0.08) 0.00 1996 69.0 0.02 0.00 1995 42.2 0.01 0.00 Growth Rate (%) 61.84 NC NC Industry Growth Rate (%) 5.92 (6.57) (17.74) --- Tim Fisher wrote: >1Q00 +121% projected >2Q00 +90% projected > >Those are immensely positive Q0/Q-4 comparisons. Absolute value of earnings >is irrelevant to the EPS ranking. > >P.S. earnings the past 5 quarters have been: +3c +5c +6c +7c +9c, >FY00 - 40c >FY99 - 18c >so I don't see any negative numbers here anyway. > >At 06:21 PM 3/23/00 -0800, you wrote: >>Can someone help me understand why JDSU has an EPS rating of 98 yet it >>hasn't had a positive earning? Maybe I am missing something, can someone >>explain? >> >> >> >>Thanks, >> >>Jim. >> >>Seffner, Florida. >> >>_____________________________________________________________ >>Get Free eMail at http://www.spinfinder.com >> >>- > >Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists >Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >PFB Information >mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > >- _____________________________________________________________ Get Free eMail at http://www.spinfinder.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] JDSU & EPS Rating ? Date: 24 Mar 2000 07:02:37 -0800 I am getting it from a source that obviously removes large one-time charges. At 06:29 AM 3/24/00 -0800, you wrote: >Tim, >I looked-up at the EPS for 1999 and is negative -.54, for 1998 is negative >-.30 per share ? >Again, where are you getting this information? >Thanks, >Jim. > >Company Performance ($mil) > Revenue EPS Dividend Rate >1999 282.7 (0.54) 0.00 >1998 175.8 (0.30) 0.00 >1997 107.0 (0.08) 0.00 >1996 69.0 0.02 0.00 >1995 42.2 0.01 0.00 > >Growth Rate (%) 61.84 NC NC >Industry Growth Rate (%) 5.92 (6.57) (17.74) Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair" Subject: RE: Subject: [CANSLIM] RE:Charles Dille Date: 24 Mar 2000 12:22:31 -0600 The Dallas Canlslim group meets the first third and fifth saturday of each month at the Brookhaven Country club. The only charge is breakfast $8.00. I drive 125 miles to attend and feel it is very worthwhile. I have been attending for about 7 years. Anyone may attend -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of chris dempsey Sent: Thursday, March 23, 2000 6:16 AM Please tell us about your CANSLIM group in Dallas. Do you know if there are others across the country? How often do you get together? Do you think it is helpful? Etc., etc., etc. Sent: Wednesday, March 22, 2000 5:56 PM To Charles Dille drop Me a line with your email address. We Have A Canslim Group In Dallas. ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] DSPG hits New High cup w/ handle Date: 24 Mar 2000 14:47:20 -0800 Take a look at DSPG. I'm glad I didn't sell it. It just jumped onto the weekend review stocks, perhaps a day late to take action, though. The cup w/ handle shows up better on a technical DAILY chart (stockmaster.com for example) [than on the weekend review WEEKly chart]. Maybe it will dip a bit for a last chance pivot point before a potentially long run. It has already come back from 64 [59 initial pivot] to 61 as of 2:20 PM, but it could take off for a long run. Jim the-lucky-SOB-short-term-over-exuberant-greedy-bull - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] P.S. DSPG volume up Date: 24 Mar 2000 15:11:04 -0800 DSPG's volume is also up to about 700,000 as of 2:50PM. It's avg. volume is around 500,000. It's float is still reasonable at 25 million shares outstanding. -Happy hunting Jim the-over-hyphenated - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] DSPG blows through pivot w/ volume up 90% Date: 24 Mar 2000 16:29:15 -0800 With average daily volume of 423,000 as it was consolidating through it's recent handle, DSPG shot up to a new high of 60 3/4 on 90% increased volume (of 807,400) today, Friday, 3/24. It's still not too extended (from 59) to jump in within 5% of it's new high. You have a whole weekend to research it, too. I realize this is my 4th post on this stock, but this is the first one I've owned just as it went through the proper pivot, and I know how quickly the correct purchase price can fly by. Also, the telecom group showed up atop the new highs list (not percentage just total number: 28). As a communications EQUIPMENT industry group member, DSPG could also benefit from a peripheral[?] group move as a supplier to the telecom. group. Worth a serious look, IMO. Jim the-etcetera-etc. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Sowden Subject: [CANSLIM] Marder on the Markets Date: 24 Mar 2000 18:29:14 LOC Kevin Marder has posted another "Marder on the Markets" article for CBS MarketWatch. I guess he's going to do the occasional guest column there from his regular stint at TradingMarkets.com The URL is: http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/20000324/news/current/marder.htx?source=blq - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Marder on the Markets Date: 24 Mar 2000 18:50:26 -0800 Interesting. He counts the closing price of the NASDAQ as the low in late Jan. The intraday low was the next day, so his followthrough day did not occur in the 4-10 day window if the intraday low is used (it was on day 3 after the intraday low). I just can't resist gloating a little: he bot JNPR 15 pts higher than I did! I admit gambling on that flag before it broke up. >The first stock I bought was Juniper Networks (JNPR: news, msgs), breaking >out of a nine-day mini-base on big volume. The volume dry-up during the >construction of the base was exceedingly bullish. That told me that >profit-takers were scarce despite the stock exploding for a 54 percent >gain on an intraday basis over the prior six-day period. When a stock acts >exceedingly well in the first day or two after purchase, I often add to >the position. I did so with Juniper. And then he did with ARBA what I did with JNPR! Thanks for the article, fascinating. >On Feb. 4, I "cheated" by buying Ariba (ARBA: news, msgs) before it >actually cleared its base. Cheating is a riskier play and should only be >attempted by experienced traders of this strategy. But it pays off big if >done early in a fresh intermediate-term market advance. I then added to >the position a week later on Feb. 11 as the stock formally broke out of >its base. >Moving to the present, the Dow put in an O'Neil follow-through day on >Wednesday, March 15 when it rose 3.3 percent on higher volume than the >prior day. Since I dwell exclusively in the aggressive growth sector, >seeing the Dow explode March 15 and 16 was kind of like kissing my sister. >On March 21, however, the Nasdaq Composite recorded an O'Neil >follow-through day of its own, advancing 2.2 percent on increased volume >from the previous day. Hmmm, follow-through from what? I thought I was jumping the gun (seriously, severely, psychotically even) when I went back in 100% on Monday AM. For 2 days I thought I was wrong. Now Marder says that nasty spike down Tuesday was the follow-through. Guess I don't see it - the low was the 15th and it was revisited the 21st. I'd hardly call that a follow-through, more like testing the low again and surviving (and coincidentally closing 1% up on volume). At 06:29 PM 3/24/00 +0000, you wrote: >Kevin Marder has posted another "Marder on the Markets" article for >CBS MarketWatch. > >I guess he's going to do the occasional guest column there from his regular >stint at TradingMarkets.com > >The URL is: > >http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/20000324/news/current/marder.htx?source=blq Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List Date: 25 Mar 2000 13:03:46 -0500 A tough week for CANSLIMers, the volatility has reduced this week's list that I review to 86 from 129 the prior week, and 154 the week before that. It has also been so long since I saw any decent LLUR charts (lower left, upper right) that I am starting to forget what they look like. On the other hand, I did see an increased number of "funnel" charts this week, so with no more FOMC meetings for nearly two months, maybe the markets will refocus on earnings? With fewer charts to look at, I took a little more time with each, so more margin comments. Bx means Base (x nr of weeks) EMLX - funnel VRTS - consolidating ORCL - stealth B/O AFCI - funnel LDP - B2 CTSH - funnel EMBX - B1+1, vol down CPN - trashed by the same group that warned of MSTR XLNX - funnel ADVS - consolidating CSCO - nice B/O, vol average RSYS - B3, volatile, vol not declining GMTC - B4, going on my small/micro cap watch list SUNW - consolidating DIO - B3? SGR - B1 KVA - B2 INDYY - B3, proposed public offering (secondary) DYN - B2+ KVB - B2+ BCE - no volume B/O NOK - nice recovery on avg vol APCC - B/O from B4, consolidating CVG - B4 MEAD, DOX - impressive gains in two weeks VSH - B3 ACTL - B4 TOF - B2 PENG - smooth chart PLXS - @ pivot point ROG - B2 CSGS - B3 ESIO - B4, consolidating, vol down MSON - not buyable, but hot dam_ it is about time one of my owned stocks shows up here! LFUS - trend up RELL - nice B/O Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Barry Marx" Subject: [CANSLIM] Canslim archive search problem Date: 25 Mar 2000 23:14:02 -0500 Hi, When I try to do a canslim archive search at http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/search.html rather than producing a list of matching results, it takes me to a page http://www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/cgi/search.cgi which appears to be the perl script for the search program itself. Am I doing something wrong, or is this a problem for others also? Thanks, Barry - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Werner Vandewiele Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD's http://www.investors.com/ Date: 26 Mar 2000 20:45:41 +0200 Just saw the following: Comming this summer: The NEW investors.com: Four NEW Online Research Tools Idea-Generating Stock Screens Investor's Business Daily Learning Center Extensive Feature Content Exclusive Subscriber-Only Features Contact Customer Service Online Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Werner Vandewiele Subject: [CANSLIM] Even better... Date: 26 Mar 2000 20:47:38 +0200 http://www.investors.com/invcorner/toc.htm Regards, <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD's http://www.investors.com/ Date: 26 Mar 2000 14:24:31 -0500 Thanks, Werner. Hope they carry through with their plans, and in particular with the stock screener. Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada Werner Vandewiele wrote: > Just saw the following: > > Comming this summer: > > The NEW investors.com: > > Four NEW Online Research Tools > Idea-Generating Stock Screens > Investor's Business Daily Learning Center > Extensive Feature Content > Exclusive Subscriber-Only Features > Contact Customer Service Online > > Regards, > > <<< Werner Vandewiele >>> > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Group Strenght-Brokers Date: 27 Mar 2000 07:20:10 -0700 Thanks Chris, Your list is very helpful. Regards, Ziggy chris dempsey wrote: > The following I keep track of on the 1st and 16th of each month. Ex. 3i/00 = > 3/16/00 & 3/00 = 3/1/00. Upload this to a spread sheet and I think you will > see what is moving. The industry groups listed are what I am focusing on for > the rest of the month. > > From: wroblewski@uswest.net > Sent: Wednesday, March 22, 2000 8:18 AM > To: canslim list > Subject: [CANSLIM] Group Strenght-Brokers > > The IBD group strength for the Finance-Investment Brokers > group continues to creep up...as of today's IBD it has moved > to position 38 and therefore an "A" Group ranking. > > Is anybody following any other groups that are moving up > ?...Please share...Thanks > > Ziggy > > SpecificIndustryGroup,3i/00,3/00,2i/00,2/00,1i/00,1/00,12i/99,12/99,11i/99,11/99,10i/99,10/99 > Medical-Biomed/Genetics,1,1,1,1,1,9,17,18,17,13,7,7 > Computer Softwr-Security,2,6,5,7,4,5,6,5,8,11,29,112 > Computer-Local Networks,3,5,7,8,6,4,3,2,2,2,1,1 > Telecommunications-Equip,4,2,6,6,8,8,10,7,6,6,5,4 > Computer Softwr-Enterpse,5,4,2,4,5,3,5,3,4,3,2,6 > Internet-Ntwk Sec/Sltns,6,3,4,3,3,2,2,4,3,4,11,43 > Computer-Memory Devices,7,14,17,15,15,13,8,12,11,9,9,13 > Computer-Peripheral Eq,8,11,12,12,14,17,16,15,15,14,13,19 > Elec-Laser Sys/Component,9,7,21,28,27,36,37,46,40,47,41,39 > Elec-Semiconductor Mfg,11,10,8,13,11,12,14,11,7,7,4,2 > Elec-Semiconductor Equip,12,12,9,19,17,19,23,17,12,8,12,14 > Computer Softwre-Desktop,13,26,10,5,7,6,4,8,9,10,8,3 > Computer-Optical Recogtn,14,13,16,18,20,18,19,19,16,23,32,44 > Computer-Integrated Syst,15,21,22,25,24,25,22,26,41,37,36,25 > Elec Products-Misc,16,20,25,24,23,20,21,23,18,17,15,22 > Medical-Ethical Drugs,20,8,13,21,22,29,35,29,30,27,24,31 > Telecommunications-Svcs,21,22,19,22,21,24,27,25,22,41,64,60 > Computer-Graphics,23,27,27,29,30,35,38,41,51,89,79,120 > Medical-Products,24,18,24,23,26,34,33,36,37,25,19,16 > Elec Measrng Instruments,25,23,26,30,32,39,46,53,55,31,26,24 > Computer Software-Fin,28,29,33,33,31,28,28,31,39,50,71,99 > Comml Svcs-Security/Sfty,29,30,32,36,44,47,48,62,64,62,68,89 > Houshold-Audio/Video,32,31,37,37,36,37,40,33,35,43,48,66 > Electrical-Control Instr,36,40,35,40,50,61,85,74,141,117,104,61 > Medical/Dental/Serv,39,39,49,52,63,69,70,89,73,54,98,117 > Elec-Military Systems,40,35,36,38,33,41,39,42,46,53,56,62 > Computer Software-Med,43,38,30,35,54,45,55,79,154,110,58,63 > Leisure-Movies & Related,44,53,57,57,72,63,54,65,62,92,82,109 > Finance-Investment Bkrs,45,56,52,51,76,65,65,80,132,158,174,123 > Real Estate Operations,47,91,90,118,175,130,148,153,135,126,118,128 > Medical-Generic Drugs,48,47,50,53,74,110,146,133,144,94,149,98 > Finance-Publ Inv Fd-Frn,52,51,51,50,49,54,51,50,59,78,105,107 > Diversified Operations,54,57,56,67,65,74,87,92,111,156,111,110 > Pollution Control-Svcs,55,49,69,81,106,146,121,123,79,68,75,84 > Leisure-Photo Equip/Rel,56,71,72,115,135,148,163,166,158,163,135,88 > Bldg-Heavy Const,57,65,73,97,95,107,116,110,122,79,74,75 > Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip,62,66,68,79,85,92,130,124,93,123,108,58 > Finance-Investment Mgmt,63,64,67,70,68,77,73,63,98,120,132,147 > Comml Svcs-Schools,66,69,60,77,117,75,82,122,153,143,175,191 > Auto/Truck-Replace Prts,67,50,66,130,180,185,160,171,170,168,155,171 > Leisure-Products,69,79,80,83,114,101,94,112,101,119,106,141 > Oil&Gas-Field Services,70,75,102,122,104,106,150,100,100,152,77,34 > Medical-Whsle Drg/Sund,73,70,108,133,118,133,177,186,188,187,173,178 > Machinery-Gen Industrial,76,82,77,82,86,89,81,99,140,147,150,104 > Cosmetics/Personal Care,77,77,94,92,99,147,111,154,149,133,154,162 > Transportation-Ship,78,102,115,96,137,135,138,130,137,141,97,90 > Office-Equip & Automatn,81,74,103,152,170,127,151,158,148,177,117,165 > Aerospace/Defense Eqp,83,78,85,107,110,118,122,90,105,129,96,121 > Machine-Tools & Rel Prod,88,99,120,125,91,88,84,109,114,130,126,111 > Retail-Misc/Diversified,91,106,105,104,120,134,152,148,162,131,142,138 > Media-Periodicals,92,84,83,85,123,150,156,167,167,167,170,183 > Banks-Foreign,95,87,82,84,88,96,115,113,123,135,144,151 > Oil&Gas-Prod/Pipeline,96,101,110,126,132,155,181,151,112,90,85,95 > > ______________________________________________ > FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com > Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup > > - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] DSPG beyond reach now, up 14% from pivot Date: 27 Mar 2000 13:37:01 -0800 DSPG gapped up at the open, making it impossible to buy in within 5% of the new high it reached on Friday. I feel fortunate to have kept it through this rapid advance considering I allowed it to drop 8% below my purchase price of 53 (on 3/13/00. It's currently around 70 at 1:20 PM Monday.) The only way I could have bought this correctly is to have put in a stop BUY after the bottom of the handle, but the window of opportunity was very slim. This is why I bought it early in the handle and allowed it to drop more than 8%. Jim the-hyphenated - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] DSPG Volume up 138%, NAV up 15% Date: 27 Mar 2000 16:34:49 -0800 DSPG Volume up138%, NAV up 15%. Friday's and today's similar bullish increases [volume up 90% and Nav up over 10%] are also magnified by the contrasting slight downturn in the NAZ. Unfortunately, DSPG is far too extended from it's pivot point now, as I mentioned earlier. Perhaps it's one to watch for a later consolidation, though. Jim -x-y-z- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: chris dempsey Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Dallas Group Date: 27 Mar 2000 18:10:42 -0500 (EST) How about some more information on the Dallas CANSLIM group? I hope 125 is round trip! How was it started? How many members? How many have come and gone over the years, and how many have been around the whole time? Attendance percentage of members? What is the meeting agenda? Something specific each time, or just a group of people with similar interests getting together to share good and bad experiences? How long do the meetings usually last? Do you share homework for the next meeting? And anything else that would be helpful that was left off. Sent: Friday, March 24, 2000 12:23 PM The Dallas Canlslim group meets the first third and fifth saturday of each month at the Brookhaven Country club. The only charge is breakfast $8.00. I drive 125 miles to attend and feel it is very worthwhile. I have been attending for about 7 years. Anyone may attend -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of chris dempsey Sent: Thursday, March 23, 2000 6:16 AM Please tell us about your CANSLIM group in Dallas. Do you know if there are others across the country? How often do you get together? Do you think it is helpful? Etc., etc., etc. Sent: Wednesday, March 22, 2000 5:56 PM To Charles Dille drop Me a line with your email address. We Have A Canslim Group In Dallas. ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: chris dempsey Subject: [CANSLIM]Sell half of positions getting to 25%? Date: 27 Mar 2000 18:31:46 -0500 (EST) Reviewing many charts of past trades I noticed that many stocks stall out a= t a 25% gain, then after digesting that gain either go higher or lower. I just recently found and listened to the IBD tapes, that I haven=92t liste= ned to for at least five years. WON says on one tape to sell half of all positions that make it to a 25% gain. Then try to make further gains with the other half. Is anyone doing this with good results? I think I will start. The hard part will be picking which =BD to sell! ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=3Dsignup - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Sell half of positions getting to 25%? Date: 27 Mar 2000 19:43:21 -0700 Yes, I remember reading this. I've been trying to note the 25% gains (and 50%, 75%, etc. and use these to key on a stocks progress. Unfortunately, this isn't a rule I've been able to follow with some rapid run-ups and run-downs. My plan was/is to use a 5% mental stop below this level, i.e. 20%, 40%, 60% (for the gains above, respectively). Let me know how it works for you. I guess a hard stop at 25% or even 20% would be a better approach for me. I really struggle with the idea of selling as the stock powers higher, and maybe a stop just below the new top would be a good approach for some percentage of my holdings. At 06:31 PM 3/27/00 -0500, you wrote: >Reviewing many charts of past trades I noticed that many stocks stall out= at >a 25% gain, then after digesting that gain either go higher or lower. > >I just recently found and listened to the IBD tapes, that I haven=92t= listened >to for at least five years. WON says on one tape to sell half of all >positions that make it to a 25% gain. Then try to make further gains with >the other half. > >Is anyone doing this with good results? I think I will start. > >The hard part will be picking which =BD to sell! > >______________________________________________ >FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com >Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=3Dsignup > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair" Subject: [CANSLIM] to Shris Dempsey Date: 27 Mar 2000 22:08:55 -0600 -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of chris dempsey Sent: Monday, March 27, 2000 5:11 PM How about some more information on the Dallas CANSLIM group? I hope 125 is round trip! one way How was it started? about six men mostly retired but one broker one oil man two other retired butnot older men of no specific destinction How many members? How many have come and gone over the years, and how many have been around the whole time? most of the original ones are there. mlst of the reat have been in for years and are pretty salty investors. To be a member you just attend and when and if you can contribute knowledge. Most everyone tries to contribute. I would say at least half are retired we have two realtors one lawyer( but he is nice)four doctors, multiple active business men, one smu professor and psychologist, god knows what else. Attendance percentage of members? no members come as If we decide you are worthwhile we might learn your name. What is the meeting agenda? no agenda. each person is given time to present or ask questions. generally you get three answers for each question al different. you decide what you like. If you choose to just listen thats ok. If you want to know about a stock, generally someone has it or knows about it. We dont stick strictly to canslim. If you have a thin skin and dont want to get involved in a friendly discussion( argument)stay home or be quiet and listen. Most of us are strong personalities and no one dominates but it is often hard to shut some of us up. last meeting we had 23. Something specific each time,(no) just a group of people with similar interests getting together to share good and bad experiences? right. I would guess we are all very well educated and quite well off financially. Our group has made several millionairs. each person is a strong individual and successful but absolutely not uppity at all. We are all equal. We are not soliciting attendees. we have enough.There is some talk of limiting the size. We may change the format. How long do the meetings usually last? 9:00 to 11:00 maybe 11:30 Do you share homework for the next meeting? email is often used if someone has a pearl to share. almost every one brings something to the meeting to share. I will usually pick up several good bits of information each time. however My wife and I love Dallas and usually spend the night just making it a good weekend.so the drive is more a treat than a trial. Remember Those bright lights are impressive for a small town Doctor And anything else that would be helpful that was left off. What do you want form and association people with a common interest. Sent: Friday, March 24, 2000 12:23 PM The Dallas Canlslim group meets the first third and fifth saturday of each month at the Brookhaven Country club. The only charge is breakfast $8.00. I drive 125 miles to attend and feel it is very worthwhile. I have been attending for about 7 years. Anyone may attend -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of chris dempsey Sent: Thursday, March 23, 2000 6:16 AM Please tell us about your CANSLIM group in Dallas. Do you know if there are others across the country? How often do you get together? Do you think it is helpful? Etc., etc., etc. Sent: Wednesday, March 22, 2000 5:56 PM To Charles Dille drop Me a line with your email address. We Have A Canslim Group In Dallas. ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Carter Diggs Subject: [CANSLIM] What's happening to EMLX??? Date: 28 Mar 2000 10:05:23 -0500 19% off in 1st hour today! Any ideas? Carter P.S. I don't own, just trying to learn. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What's happening to EMLX??? Date: 28 Mar 2000 08:48:48 -0800 Who cares? I dumped it like a hot potato. Let the market tell you when to hold and when to sell. A gap down like this is one time when you need to sell, no questions asked, and look for another trade. On 07:05 AM 3/28/00 , Carter Diggs Said: >19% off in 1st hour today! Any ideas? > >Carter > >P.S. I don't own, just trying to learn. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "John Adair" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DSPG Volume up 138%, NAV up 15% Date: 28 Mar 2000 12:53:02 -0600 Thanks for the tip. I just managed to jump on the train before it left the station. -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of han.26@osu.edu Sent: Monday, March 27, 2000 6:35 PM DSPG Volume up138%, NAV up 15%. Friday's and today's similar bullish increases [volume up 90% and Nav up over 10%] are also magnified by the contrasting slight downturn in the NAZ. Unfortunately, DSPG is far too extended from it's pivot point now, as I mentioned earlier. Perhaps it's one to watch for a later consolidation, though. Jim -x-y-z- - - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DSPG Volume up 138%, NAV up 15% Date: 28 Mar 2000 10:43:45 -0800 LHSP is breaking out right now; within a point of the closing high as I type. I looked at it but passed. This market is too screwy for me. On 10:53 AM 3/28/00 , John Adair Said: >Thanks for the tip. I just managed to jump on the train before it left the >station. > >-----Original Message----- >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of han.26@osu.edu >Sent: Monday, March 27, 2000 6:35 PM >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: [CANSLIM] DSPG Volume up 138%, NAV up 15% > > >DSPG Volume up138%, NAV up 15%. Friday's and today's similar bullish >increases >[volume up 90% and Nav up over 10%] are also magnified by the contrasting >slight downturn in the NAZ. Unfortunately, DSPG is far too extended from >it's >pivot point now, as I mentioned earlier. Perhaps it's one to watch for a >later >consolidation, though. > >Jim -x-y-z- > > >- > > > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Jeff Salisbury Subject: [CANSLIM] A Kevin Marder Article Date: 28 Mar 2000 16:33:00 -0700 Greetings from your lurking moderator! In the past, I've posted articles written by Kevin Marder on CANSLIM techniques. He has another new article available. You can read this article at: http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/marder.htx?source=htx/http2_mw Best Regards, Jeff - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: DSPG tip Date: 28 Mar 2000 19:03:27 -0800 One thing I've noticed since holding DSPG: it's very volatile. In the long run, I think this will smooth out as institutional investors begin to pour in. In the intermediate term, if you can stay in, I believe this will push it up as Telecom and broadband companies purchase DSPG's processing cores and other specialized technologies. My only reservation is the overall [near-term] NASDAQ movement. DSPG tends to correct a bit more when it drops, but on the other hand, it also tends to move up faster than the NAZ. Otherwise, the C-A-N-S-L-I is all there. Let's watch the M closely. Personally, I intend to hold this one for as long as possible, hopefully through the next set of interest rate hikes. As some guru said "It's the sitting that makes you rich." John Adair wrote: >>Thanks for the tip. I just managed to jump on the train before it left the station.<< - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What's happening to EMLX??? Date: 28 Mar 2000 20:14:49 -0700 There was an Analyst downgrade released this morning. I believe this was a little push that EMLX reacted to in a big way. I'm out with an 18% loss, ouch! At 10:05 AM 3/28/00 -0500, you wrote: >19% off in 1st hour today! Any ideas? > >Carter > >P.S. I don't own, just trying to learn. > > >- > > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What's happening to EMLX??? Date: 28 Mar 2000 19:23:21 -0800 I'm out with a 12% loss too, and I agree that it was an accident waiting to happen. Nothing corrects like this on a downgrade by an unknown house without something else going on. I.e. mutual funds using the downgrade as an excuse to dump it. (Morgan Keegan? Who ever heard of them? It didn't even make Briefing.com!) At 08:14 PM 3/28/00 -0700, you wrote: >There was an Analyst downgrade released this morning. I believe this was a >little push that EMLX reacted to in a big way. I'm out with an 18% loss, >ouch! > >At 10:05 AM 3/28/00 -0500, you wrote: > >19% off in 1st hour today! Any ideas? > > > >Carter > > > >P.S. I don't own, just trying to learn. > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What's happening to EMLX??? Date: 28 Mar 2000 22:13:46 -0700 As Tim said, the thing to learn from this is that it ever happens to a stock you own, don't try to figure out what is happening, just get out. On 28 Mar 00, at 10:05, Carter Diggs wrote: > 19% off in 1st hour today! Any ideas? > > Carter > > P.S. I don't own, just trying to learn. > > > - > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Rich Ralph" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] What's happening to EMLX??? Date: 29 Mar 2000 09:47:19 -0500 Morgan Keegan has offices throughout the South, and enjoys a good reputation. If I'm not mistaken, I believe they were one of the first firm's to bring CREE to the attention of investors. Good Trading, _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| _| Rich Ralph _| GO WINGS! GO STATE! ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Tuesday, March 28, 2000 10:23 PM > I'm out with a 12% loss too, and I agree that it was an accident waiting to > happen. Nothing corrects like this on a downgrade by an unknown house > without something else going on. I.e. mutual funds using the downgrade as > an excuse to dump it. > > (Morgan Keegan? Who ever heard of them? It didn't even make Briefing.com!) > > At 08:14 PM 3/28/00 -0700, you wrote: > >There was an Analyst downgrade released this morning. I believe this was a > >little push that EMLX reacted to in a big way. I'm out with an 18% loss, > >ouch! > > > >At 10:05 AM 3/28/00 -0500, you wrote: > > >19% off in 1st hour today! Any ideas? > > > > > >Carter > > > > > >P.S. I don't own, just trying to learn. > > > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > PFB Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Robert Subject: [CANSLIM] ACC/Dis Numbers Date: 29 Mar 2000 22:04:05 -0500 Here are the latest Acc/Dis Numbers. Sorry about the long delay between posts. Ive been on vacation. Date A B C D E AB/A:E %E 03/14/00 2108 2111 1144 1090 670 59% 9% 03/15/00 2051 2072 1205 1097 702 58% 10% 03/16/00 1903 2165 1166 1166 678 57% 10% 03/17/00 1758 2403 1210 1108 583 59% 8% 03/20/00 1825 2663 1160 958 447 64% 6% 03/21/00 1821 2666 1182 956 431 64% 6% 03/22/00 1727 2689 1210 973 423 63% 6% 03/23/00 1691 2717 1202 977 406 63% 6% 03/24/00 1740 2749 1176 936 399 64% 6% 03/27/00 1765 2767 1177 910 400 65% 6% Spreadsheet version: Date,A,B,C,D,E,AB/A:E,%E 3/7/00,2102,2181,1160,1069,587,60%,8%,, 3/8/00,2127,2171,1127,1084,614,60%,9% 3/9/00,2104,2091,1134,1111,674,59%,9% 3/10/00,2048,2114,1146,1112,690,59%,10% 3/13/00,2112,2132,1146,1074,663,60%,9% 03/14/00,2108,2111,1144,1090,670,59%,9% 03/15/00,2051,2072,1205,1097,702,58%,10% 03/16/00,1903,2165,1166,1166,678,57%,10% 03/17/00,1758,2403,1210,1108,583,59%,8% 03/20/00,1825,2663,1160,958,447,64%,6% 03/21/00,1821,2666,1182,956,431,64%,6% 03/22/00,1727,2689,1210,973,423,63%,6% 03/23/00,1691,2717,1202,977,406,63%,6% 03/24/00,1740,2749,1176,936,399,64%,6% 03/27/00,1765,2767,1177,910,400,65%,6% Robert - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: [CANSLIM] Licking our wounds? Date: 29 Mar 2000 18:31:20 -0800 I guess the lack of posts means we are all smarting from today. I am back to mostly cash (haven't even checked the final damages yet) and am probably 12% poorer for it since last Monday. Guess those buy signals (I counted two last week) were in the 25% that are false according to WON. Looks like a V-bottom may form tomorrow AM in the NASDAQ. Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Walter Stock Subject: [CANSLIM] New IBD feature and EMLX Date: 29 Mar 2000 23:20:39 -0500 Hmm... group seems very quiet this week. Hope this doesn't mean what it sometimes means. I came back from two weeks off with my little boy and am still all in cash. Am looking for leaders for the next upleg and finding nothing at all that interests me so far. In connection with the search, I noticed that starting Monday of this week, IBD has created a useful new daily two-page section called "Internet and Technology". (This is in addition to the New America section.) At the bottom of one of the pages is a new daily list called "Follow the Leader" of the top 30 stocks in a chosen technology group. The 30 stocks are ranked by combined EPS and RS. Quarterly % increases in earnings and in sales for the latest two quarters are listed as are the SMR, Acc/Dis, and other ratings. Very helpful. Monday's Industry Group was the IBD Computer-Local Networks Group (57 stocks in the group). What was the top stock on this first day of the new feature? Why none other than EMLX (the day before it fell off a cliff). Absolutely sparkling fundamental ratings across the board. The fundamentals would never get you out in time. TA and/or stops are the only way to exit a mess like EMLX. Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Licking our wounds? Date: 29 Mar 2000 22:03:28 -0800 Still sitting in cash. I havn't had a warm fuzzy feeling on the market based on IBS's General Markets page. On a side note: I really like the new front page layout of IBD with the quick one-liners about each index. -Bill Triffet ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Wednesday, March 29, 2000 6:31 PM > I guess the lack of posts means we are all smarting from today. I am back > to mostly cash (haven't even checked the final damages yet) and am probably > 12% poorer for it since last Monday. Guess those buy signals (I counted two > last week) were in the 25% that are false according to WON. Looks like a > V-bottom may form tomorrow AM in the NASDAQ. > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > PFB Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > - > > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] Fwd: IMPORTANT UPDATE from Cabot's ISW Date: 30 Mar 2000 13:26:54 -0800 Very interesting recommendations from Cabot's internet stock newsletter. I haven't seen a newsletter recommend you sell anything...well, ever. Maybe I'm just too new. Anyway I sold SONE weeks ago when it broke below 100 and sold CHKP (again) on Monday (for a loss this time). >Finally we have a few rating changes for you. We're selling S1 (SONE) and >Check Point Systems (CHKP) >today. SONE has been languishing for weeks and just broke below a key support >level yesterday, giving us a loss of 30%. And CHKP has fallen sharply after >what may have been a blow-off advance, wiping out all of our profit. Thus, we >advise you to sell these two weak stocks and move your proceeds into stronger >situations. >Also, we're changing our rating on PMC-Sierra (PMCS), BroadVision (BVSN) and >Redback Networks (RBAK) to HOLD. All three have weakened lately, but we still >consider their momentum to be positive. So if you own any of them and your >loss hasn't hit 30%, hang on. But new money should be placed in only the >strongest of our recommended stocks. >So which are the strongest? Currently, Metromedia Fiber Network (MFNX), >Exodus >(EXDS), Juniper (JNPR), Brocade (BRCD) and Veritas (VRTS) are the >strongest ISW >stocks. Any new buying you do should be focused on these stocks first. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Richard Turner Subject: [CANSLIM] Re:(CANSLIM) What's happening to EMLX??? Date: 30 Mar 2000 22:05:02 -0500 I think the thing happening to EMLX is that so many funds decided at the same time to get out. . One IBD tape says to look for stocks with Funds holding less than 30% and preferably around 3% . That way one isn't subjected to the wrath of abundant selling that can hurt the individual investor . In contrast look at XETA (which I own) It has corrected but its held rating is 3%. As a result MOST of its down days has been on less than average volume. By the way, MRCY broke out the day before the NASDAQ's recent fool's rally and shortly after so did WEBT and DITC. They should be leaders when this is all over. end - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] Failed Follow-Through on the NAS Date: 30 Mar 2000 22:15:48 -0700 Well, I just got back home tonight, and the situation looks pretty grim. The NASDAQ has broken the previous closing low and overall low from earlier this month, and I believe the rally is now officially d-e-a-d, DEAD!! This also is a good description of the stocks I picked up over the last week or so. I am out of 2 today, and likely out of 2 if not 3 (that would be 100% out) early in the morning. This little failed rally has not been good to the old CANSLIM account. Looking back, I jumped into some stocks with very short bases, and maybe a "rushed" approach to a quick follow-through is not the best approach. With the rapid moves in the NASDAQ, it's hard to keep patience either way. How have others handled this little correction/rally/correction action? I believe I'll look for some longer bases, and more definitive breakouts before I get back into much. Note that I didn't manage to get fully invested in this "rally", but with several losses and about 85% of my money in new investments, I'm still not feeling too good. - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: jeff.salisbury@xmission.com Date: 31 Mar 2000 06:53:37 -0700 ([216.103.104.249]) by mta1.snfc21.pbi.net (Sun Internet Mail Server sims.3.5.2000.01.05.12.18.p9) with SMTP id <0FSA0076XH0FI5@mta1.snfc21.pbi.net> for canslim@lists.xmission.com; Fri, 31 Mar 2000 05:48:21 -0800 (PST) In-reply-to: <000d01bf9a0d$b0444620$074dcfcf@godzilla> Message-id: <38e9ac68.1474532@mail.pacbell.net> MIME-version: 1.0 X-Mailer: Forte Agent .99g/32.339 Content-type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-transfer-encoding: quoted-printable References: <4.2.2.20000329182037.00a91d60@mail.spiritone.com> <000d01bf9a0d$b0444620$074dcfcf@godzilla> On Wed, 29 Mar 2000 22:03:28 -0800, you wrote: :Still sitting in cash. I havn't had a warm fuzzy feeling on the market = based :on IBS's General Markets page. : :On a side note: I really like the new front page layout of IBD with the :quick one-liners about each index. : :-Bill Triffet Check out IBD's Big Picture this morning warning "extreme caution" at this juncture. Pretty fair in depth analysis of where we are in the equities markets. PS I, too, am in cash 100%. -Dan : :----- Original Message ----- :From: Tim Fisher :To: :Sent: Wednesday, March 29, 2000 6:31 PM :Subject: [CANSLIM] Licking our wounds? : : :> I guess the lack of posts means we are all smarting from today. I am = back :> to mostly cash (haven't even checked the final damages yet) and am :probably :> 12% poorer for it since last Monday. Guess those buy signals (I = counted :two :> last week) were in the 25% that are false according to WON. Looks like= a :> V-bottom may form tomorrow AM in the NASDAQ. :> :> :> Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists :> Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site :> PFB Information :> mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com :> WWW http://OreRockOn.com :> :> :> - :> :> : : :- : - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] M beats CANSLI but... Date: 31 Mar 2000 10:37:26 -0800 DSPG is still hovering over it's breakout point, but "thanks" to the correction, it is only 5-8% extended (around 62) from its pivot point of 58-59. Unfortunately, the NAZ has been under distribution so it wouldn't be CANSLIM to buy in right now. Personally, since I still show a decent profit on it (in at 53 on 3/13/00), I hope to be able to withstand the current NASDAQ drop. I've also noticed that it has moved down mostly only on DECREASED volume [in contrast to the NAZ's up volume], meaning that current holders are reluctant to give this one up. I'd be a bit surprised if DSPG doesn't vault upward once the NAZ moves up again--the question is when will that be. DSPG moved up to 2nd on the Weekend Review, and the Telecom Equip. industry is now ranked 1st of 196. Others factors are DSPG's lower PE than its group [35 according to Quicken/ E*Trade, & Morningstar, but 95 according to IBD--either of which is below the industry average]. It also shows 90 EPS, 96 RS, AAA and it's a BOLD ITALIC (pg. B11 of IBD). P.S. I'm also planning to keep Cisco [CSCO] throughout this drop if possible. P.P.S the NYSE listed C&D Technologies [CHP] is worth further investigation (good fundies including volume clues) although the chart didn't look ripe when I viewed it last week. Jim ---- - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Failed Follow-Through on the NAS Date: 31 Mar 2000 09:11:41 -0800 I still hold ISSX, VTSS, and QCOM. Sold countless others this past week. ISSX has yet to close below my stop but has been there intraday almost every day this week. I really wish there was a way to find out if you can put a stop on a stock before you buy it short of calling your broker. If it closes below I'll put in a market order to sell it, but who knows how much I would have lost by then. QCOM is holding up very well and VTSS is 5% above my stop. Wish CSCO hadn't broken my stop a month ago - it is doing unbelievably well. So are GLW & NOK. JNPR is also doing OK (but I got stopped out on Monday). P.S. Just looekd at XETA again - whoever said it was holding up - look again. It has clearly broken out of its uptrend over the past 3 weeks. On 09:15 PM 3/30/00 , Earl Setser Said: >Well, I just got back home tonight, and the situation looks pretty grim. >The NASDAQ has broken the previous closing low and overall low from earlier >this month, and I believe the rally is now officially d-e-a-d, DEAD!! This >also is a good description of the stocks I picked up over the last week or >so. I am out of 2 today, and likely out of 2 if not 3 (that would be 100% >out) early in the morning. This little failed rally has not been good to >the old CANSLIM account. > >Looking back, I jumped into some stocks with very short bases, and maybe a >"rushed" approach to a quick follow-through is not the best approach. With >the rapid moves in the NASDAQ, it's hard to keep patience either way. How >have others handled this little correction/rally/correction action? I >believe I'll look for some longer bases, and more definitive breakouts >before I get back into much. > >Note that I didn't manage to get fully invested in this "rally", but with >several losses and about 85% of my money in new investments, I'm still not >feeling too good. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: "Matt Robinson" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Failed Follow-Through on the NAS Date: 31 Mar 2000 14:44:19 -0500 Yea, a lot of weak looking small caps. Some of are down a good bit, while others continue a slow drift lower. I thought HOTT would have given back more of its gains but it has not, and the close significantly off the lows yesterday certainly helped.........guess it helps that its not tech. MRCY seems to be holding at the resistance in the 45-46 range pretty well............although I don't like the complete retracement of the previous gains. Hmmmm, what to do now....... Regards Matt ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Friday, March 31, 2000 12:11 PM > I still hold ISSX, VTSS, and QCOM. Sold countless others this past week. > ISSX has yet to close below my stop but has been there intraday almost > every day this week. I really wish there was a way to find out if you can > put a stop on a stock before you buy it short of calling your broker. If it > closes below I'll put in a market order to sell it, but who knows how much > I would have lost by then. QCOM is holding up very well and VTSS is 5% > above my stop. Wish CSCO hadn't broken my stop a month ago - it is doing > unbelievably well. So are GLW & NOK. JNPR is also doing OK (but I got > stopped out on Monday). > > P.S. Just looekd at XETA again - whoever said it was holding up - look > again. It has clearly broken out of its uptrend over the past 3 weeks. > > On 09:15 PM 3/30/00 , Earl Setser Said: > >Well, I just got back home tonight, and the situation looks pretty grim. > >The NASDAQ has broken the previous closing low and overall low from earlier > >this month, and I believe the rally is now officially d-e-a-d, DEAD!! This > >also is a good description of the stocks I picked up over the last week or > >so. I am out of 2 today, and likely out of 2 if not 3 (that would be 100% > >out) early in the morning. This little failed rally has not been good to > >the old CANSLIM account. > > > >Looking back, I jumped into some stocks with very short bases, and maybe a > >"rushed" approach to a quick follow-through is not the best approach. With > >the rapid moves in the NASDAQ, it's hard to keep patience either way. How > >have others handled this little correction/rally/correction action? I > >believe I'll look for some longer bases, and more definitive breakouts > >before I get back into much. > > > >Note that I didn't manage to get fully invested in this "rally", but with > >several losses and about 85% of my money in new investments, I'm still not > >feeling too good. > > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > > - > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Talk to your friends online with Yahoo! Messenger. http://im.yahoo.com - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From: Richard Turner Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Failed Follow-Through on the NAS Date: 31 Mar 2000 21:30:30 -0500 Earl, I bought in too quickly too. I keep telling myself to go by the book but AH! emotion speaks. Chalk it up to tuition for a good education. We're going to be great at this soon. end -