From: canslim-owner@xmission.com (canslim Digest) To: canslim-digest@xmission.com Subject: canslim Digest V1 #176 Reply-To: canslim@xmission.com Sender: canslim-owner@xmission.com Errors-To: canslim-owner@xmission.com Precedence: canslim Digest Friday, May 16 1997 Volume 01 : Number 176 In this issue: [CANSLIM] Introduction - Jeff Salisbury Re: [CANSLIM] GATE - Predictions! Re: [CANSLIM] GATE - Predictions! Re: [CANSLIM] Help is needed Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction - Jeff Salisbury Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction - Jeff Salisbury [CANSLIM] GANDF [CANSLIM] Misc Assortment [CANSLIM] thanks tom [CANSLIM] A Real Beginer Here Re: [CANSLIM] Misc Assortment Re: [CANSLIM] A Real Beginer Here [CANSLIM] HWP Re: [CANSLIM] A Real Beginer Here [CANSLIM] IBD? [CANSLIM] GATE-DG's See the end of the digest for information on subscribing to the canslim or canslim-digest mailing lists and on how to retrieve back issues. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 15 May 1997 17:53:09 -0600 From: jeff@scrooge.idec.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Introduction - Jeff Salisbury I'm not sure why I haven't written up my intro before. But, better late than never... I'm 34 yrs old. I've been married for 13 years and have three young children (ages 5,3,1). I have a Bachelors degree in Applied (engineering) Mathematics, and a Masters degree in Physics Instrumentation. I've been working as a software/electrical engineer or data analyst for the past 12 years. I've worked at Space Dynamics Lab in scenic Logan, Utah for the past 5 years. My office is three doors down the hall from Jay Cliburn, another member of our list: On May 15, 7:29am, Jay Cliburn wrote: > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro Count - Final WrapUp > > I don't have an intro from Jeff, our list guy... do we > > want one? > > Naaahhhh. He's pretty uninteresting. Trust me. I'm three > doors down the hall from him. :-D >-- End of excerpt from Jay Cliburn To get even with Jay for his wise-crack, let me give everyone a web-page with his picture: http://www.csd.sdl.usu.edu/personnel/index.html I'm still not sure what I want to be when I grow up. For the last few years, I've been a wannabe entrepreneur and investor. I've been heavily invested in mutual funds for the past 12 years. As that time has past, I've found myself investing in more and more aggresive funds. About 6 years ago I bought and read O'Neil's "How to Make Money In Stocks" book. I read the book from cover to cover and subscribed to IBD for the free two week offer. However, I just didn't know where to go from that point. It seemed like IBD did not provide enough information by itself to carry out CANSLIM buying and selling. Also, I had a bunch of un-answered questions. So, I kind of dropped the whole idea of buying individual stocks, and stayed with mutuals. In Aug of 96, Jay Cliburn and I started talking about stock market investing in the hallway of our employer. I dug up my dusty HTMMIS and re-read the book again. Again, I had a bunch of unanswered questions. However, I found that many of my questions were answered as Jay and I talked about the book. However, Jay and I both still had many questions. It was because of these questions that I set-up our canslim list: > Actually, I'd be real interested in what prompted Jeff to subject > himself to the torture of setting up, then maintaining, this > discussion group. Hope he's gotten more out of it than what it must > have cost him. Best place I've found on the net to spend several > hours a night. > > tom w I had actually setup and run several other majordomo lists (none related to investing) and found the group synergy to be quite useful. I thought "why not do the same for canslim...". I setup the list in Oct 96, and posted messages to misc.invest.stocks. In about 2 weeks time, we had several hundred members. Since then, I have created a web page (www.xmission.com/~mcjathan/canslim/canslim.htm) and submited its URL to many of the major search engines to attract more people to our group. I'm very pleased that our forum is of value to both advanced and novice investors (I include myself in the category of novice when it comes to individual equities). But, I've learned a bunch from our group. If I were to pick a couple of the "biggies" I've learned, it would be the existance of Daily Graphs (terrific) and how to use DG, and some fundamentals of technical analysis. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 May 1997 20:09:22 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GATE - Predictions! Gotta correct one error I made, plus forgot to make my PREDICTION! NASDAQ was up 1.5% today, not 1%, and would expect tomorrow would give back most or all of that, and maybe more. GATE finished up at 68 7/8, up 7.5. I would expect that it will finish tomorrow down less, but definitely less. If I had to pick a nr, somewhere around 62.5 to 63 but intraday may take it below that. tom w Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. - ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] GATE - Predictions! > Date: Thursday, May 15, 1997 5:26 PM > > Hello Group, > Tom and James seem to always be sticking their proverbial necks out > there on the ole chopping block. I challenge each of you to look at the > chart of GATE. Now the news is an annouced 2/1 split plus, after split, ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 May 1997 20:04:57 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GATE - Predictions! You left off two critical pieces of information: one, they are moving from NASDAQ to NYSE; two) HWP missed earnings forecasts by five cents after a strong day based (I suspect) on whisper nrs even greater than estimates. Aftermarket trading was down on most techs, and I expect NASDAQ big caps to give back the 1% gains of today at least, and possibly more since they closed the day on a downtrend. As far as a buyback, no responsible corp will guarantee to buy back xxx nr of shares, usually it is expressed in dollars if you were to see the fine print. This is to allow them to spend a specific amount of money budgeted which, at the time of announcement, would equate to that nr of shares. I have seen most of these result in buybacks of about 80% percent or so of the nr of shares originally projected. I have also seen a number of cases where they had bot the entire nr of shares projected without exhausting the budget for such a buyback, and went and authorized a further buyback to spend the rest of the money, ending up with a buyback exceeding 100% of the nr of shares originally forecasted. On a non-scientific, non-numerical, totally subjective basis, I would guess the avg to be somewhere around 90% of the nr of shares originally forecast. GATE closing up 7/8 after being up 6 pts earlier is not encouraging for tomorrow, but hey, it's never been one of my favorite computer mfrs anyway. tom w Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. - ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] GATE - Predictions! > Date: Thursday, May 15, 1997 5:26 PM > > Hello Group, > Tom and James seem to always be sticking their proverbial necks out > there on the ole chopping block. I challenge each of you to look at the > chart of GATE. Now the news is an annouced 2/1 split plus, after split, > going to be buying "up to" -(that one always gets me) - 10 million shares. > If they only buy back 1 share doesn't that satisfy the "up to". And past > records will almost all show that not many actually, in fact repurchase the > number of shares that they have given themselves "permission" to > repurchase. > Here is the challenge, tell me what you think GATE will close at > tomorrow. No extended outlooks, just your "guess" as to where it will close > the week. > James ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 May 1997 20:19:40 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Help is needed Good response to which I will add: I try never to let a big winner retrace more than 25% before selling (this is normal, anything beyond this is not healthy, and a stock that retraces 50% of its recent move is unlikely to repeat any time soon, plus I want to have the option down the road of going back in cheaper if it bases out). Never try to short into an uptrending market. Wait for the mkt to trend down overall before trying shorts. tom w Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. - ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Help is needed > Date: Thursday, May 15, 1997 12:26 PM > > I'll reply/address two points and let others handle the others. First, > personally, I never buy or sell trying to split the bid and ask. If the > Second, WON states that he has never made much money with some astute > purchase when compared to the money he has made while sitting back, > waiting, being patient, and letting the stock do it's thing. I never sell a > stock that is making me money in order to get into one that "I think" is > going to make me more. However, I usually don't hesitate getting OUT of one > that is costing me money. Although, I think CPB will probably be a lot > enjoy the few times that happens. As to shorting, Mr. O'Neil and Mr. Lynch, > with all of their knowledge and experience do not see a future in doing > that. If they are not too sold on the idea, as of yet, I do not think my > expertise has surpassed either of them. For now, I will continue to use the > "long" approach. Just my opinion on what they say and how I handle ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 May 1997 20:26:59 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction - Jeff Salisbury Thanks for the intro, Jeff. Nice to know it has helped, and didn't realize I was so close to being a "plankowner"! Now for the important stuff, my son and family (wife, two kids including a newborn) finally escaped Miami for SLC and discovered all the good computer tech jobs had dried up. Any suggestions I can pass along to him for employment from you or Jay? He's not "wedded" to SLC, and is also willing to commute if necessary. Trust me, despite the problems I had upgrading my drive, he's actually a very good tech even if he's stubborn. tom w Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. - ---------- > From: Jeff Salisbury > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Introduction - Jeff Salisbury > Date: Thursday, May 15, 1997 7:53 PM > > I'm not sure why I haven't written up my intro before. But, better late than > never... > > I'm 34 yrs old. I've been married for 13 years and have three young children > (ages 5,3,1). I have a Bachelors degree in Applied (engineering) Mathematics, > and a Masters degree in Physics Instrumentation. I've been working as a > software/electrical engineer or data analyst for the past 12 years. I've > worked at Space Dynamics Lab in scenic Logan, Utah for the past 5 years. My > office is three doors down the hall from Jay Cliburn, another member of our > list: ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 May 1997 20:33:57 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction - Jeff Salisbury Pretty clever, Jeff, locking up your picture like that! But hey, doesn't this still mean Jay is above you in the pecking order? Now your turn Jay, make Jeff release his picture. tom w Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. - ---------- > From: Jeff Salisbury > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Introduction - Jeff Salisbury > Date: Thursday, May 15, 1997 7:53 PM > > To get even with Jay for his wise-crack, let me give everyone a web-page with > his picture: http://www.csd.sdl.usu.edu/personnel/index.html > ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 May 1997 20:43:41 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] GANDF Well, no surprise, Gandalf Tech wins the "slice and dice" award rather easily. Chalk up another one for internet hyping, touting and false rumor spreading. Can only wonder how many thousands of investors got fried on this one today, and still don't know what hit them. Sooner or later, the SEC and NASD is going to do something about this, but in the meantime gives me just one more reason to stay away from foreign stocks in general and Canadian stocks in particular, along with @#%$$@#&%# bulletin board stocks (urgggghhhh!). tom w Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 15 May 1997 21:59:56 -0500 From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] Misc Assortment For those entering their "guesses" on GATE's closing price tomorrow I am putting ALL of them into a separate folder. After the close, will get out, and see who the "REAL GURU's" are. So far, I hope ALL of you are very, very wrong. I did buy it and did not buy it until I saw the price was going to hold. You have to wait until 2:05 CST to know that. I think it will go UP an additional 5-8 tomorrow. However, since so many of you think I'm going to lose some of my initial investment I will say that it will close at 74. That would certainly get my week-end off on the right foot. As for ASTSF - Got shook out of this one some while back and I HATE re-buying stocks. Should I lose on it again, this one goes into file #13. Can't get me but twice. However, hope Trader Jack is right. This shows the problems in buying a stock that trades lightly. You subject yourself to just this type of activity. DRNK/PARL - Not sure who it was who sent me e-mail saying this one was breaking out but thanks!!! Bought DRNK and PARL at the same time. By looking at the charts thought PARL would do fine and DRNK probably WOULD go into the drink. Well, it's DRNK that jumped skyward today. It is actually the #1 profit maker in some of the accounts I manage. Hope it doesn't pull a GANDF trick. MWL has been mentioned here a couple of times- If want to check out the story about it's upcoming stock split can find the story at: http://www.merc.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2952382-761 From now until Sat noon we here at my place will be busy as busy can be getting "something" into the mail. Here's some general news for those who are liking and enjoying it. Of course, only one man KNOWS what the FOMC is going to do on Tuesday. Even he is probably agonizing over it. However, the "smart" money will make a move BEFORE it actually happens. The "smart money" may do their thing tomorrow or may wait as late as late Monday, BUT they WILL do their thing. They are usually right. In either case, regardless which course is taken on Monday the market IS GOING to MOVE. Will be adding quite a list of stocks to the Wall Chart. They are being added strictly by graph shape (aka price pattern). Will look up all the CANSLIM numbers later. Those being added are: ALF, AVL (was mentioned here not so long ago and if fall did not shake you out you should be smiling now), BBV, STD, CKE, CEBC, CGN, CAG, DNEX, LBC, MLIN, PCAR, PHG, QNTM, REAL (graph's a little steep), SBH, SDW, SRA, TER, TR, U, USBC and AFP. Some will not measure up once the numbers are put to them, but will be doing that later. Some stocks that appear to be headed to Pluto and already well on their way (Too steep for even James to chase) are: BEAS, CBSL, EMKR, FBD, GEHL, GX and STDM. For the CANSLIM followers that ONLY buy at EXACT pivot points be sure to check out CLST and IMNX tonight. Tomorrow may be too late. These could break out tomorrow. Once again, have only checked graph shape at this point. Stocks already ON the Wall Chart that had a pretty good volume increase today and were up were: BAANF, CLCX, CPWR, UTR, and MTC (new high). Stocks on Wall Chart closing today at or equal to 52 week highs were: AMAT, ASMLF (still on for the roller coaster ride - climbing now, hope doesn't dive), BCH, BBRC, DF, DELL, FULL, GLX, MTC, ORBKF, RAYM, SMFC, SPW, TEK, TEF, TRY, VECO and WLA. Wall Chart shows tomorrow should be an up day and a STRONG one. This is not consistent with what commentators are saying based on valuations and an assortment of other ideas. However, with Tuesday coming the Wall Chart Timing Indicator trend could be off. Well, this has been much too, too long but hope there is something here that somebody can use AND MAKE SOME MONEY. Thanks for some of the selections and DRNK sure is tasting good right now. PLEASE remember, always do your own homework, NEVER buy strictly from a tip, it is YOUR money in the market that will be lost if lost and YOUR profit if it works. Have a good evening. James ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 May 1997 04:13:07 -0800 From: KL1R Subject: [CANSLIM] thanks tom hiya tom, thanks for the 'tip' on invx before it brokeout. purchased it at 29.125 and sold at 35.125 for 20.5% gain in about a week. sure, it was early and i could have made more profit except during invx's run up were all the articles on SELLING stocks. the most important paragraph in htmmis and from the posts was to show a net profit first before getting fancy. tom, invx pushed my trading account into net gain. thanks. today, cell, 99 98 a, was up 1 3/4 on huge volume at 27.625 right after the open. i bought as the volume headed for 150% and the stock finished up at 29.5, +3 3/4 for a one day gain of 14.56% on 2.27m shares. that puts me above 6% on the day for this trade. this was my first attempt to hit a breakout during high volume. back to lurking, dale ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 May 1997 01:38:32 -0400 From: Dave Isbell Subject: [CANSLIM] A Real Beginer Here Hello, I have also been lurking about for some time now and I am getting ready t= o make my first trades. (I cashed out of my mutual funds today). I am planning on remaining in cash until after the fed announcement on Tuesday= =2E I am still unsure where to begin. I have read the WON books on CANSLIM an= d from what I have read from this group it sounds as if some of you are earning some money. I have a couple of questions. What research resources= out there will give me the best bang for the buck? Is the condition of th= e overall market conducive for positive returns or am I going to be wiped o= ut in a week? Should I go to the bank and open a savings account and forget the whole thing? I guess that what I am trying to say is that I have a healthy respect for our finical markets and I would prefer to make money and not give too much of it away. I am looking for a better return on my money and am willing to put that money at a greater level of risk to achieve that goal. I feel confident in my ability to pick CANSLIM stocks.= I feel totally inadequate to read the condition of the market. Like the man= says, if your wrong about the general direction of the market, you will b= e in a world of hurt! (Something to that extent). A brief intro. My name is Dave and I have been investing in Mutual funds since 1986 usin= g the buy and hold method. In 1995 I moved all my money to a mutual fund timing service. The results have been marginal at best. There timing was awful! A friend recommend WON's book and the book made a lot of sense to me. I am not looking for a get rich quick scheme and I don't see anybody = on this forum selling one. I am married and have two awesome children. My family is trusting that I won't be a fool with our money. I am a Christma= s tree grower and also work in the advertising industry. Thanks for allowin= g me to be a part of this group. Dave = ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 May 1997 06:39:50 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Misc Assortment Once again, James and I will disagree, but hopes that challenges everybody's thinking and helps you make your own decisions that you can live with. On Greenspan and economic reports: I still do not expect a hike on Tuesday despite finally getting some evidence of inflation in Thursday's reports. Core CPI was higher than expected, and the drop in initial unemployment claims was greater than expected. Nonetheless, I saw evidence of a continued slowdown in the growth rate of the economy which I believe offsets these items, and will permit the Feds to take a "bye" on Tuesday. Unlike James, I believe Mr G is concerned about the economy, not the price of someone's portfolio. On Friday's market: I expect a sharp selloff principally concentrated in the tech groups and within that in the computer mfrs. HWP's performance yesterday clearly showed that they were expected to beat estimates, not miss by 5 cents. And techs were down across the board in aftermarket to confirm this. Plus, this is a Friday and traders don't like to hold positions over the weekend. Housing starts due out today, don't expect this to have much effect. Hope some of you had a chance to make some money on my head's up on THDO. tom w Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. - ---------- > From: Brenda > To: canslim > Subject: [CANSLIM] Misc Assortment > Date: Thursday, May 15, 1997 10:59 PM > > who are liking and enjoying it. Of course, only one man KNOWS what the FOMC > is going to do on Tuesday. Even he is probably agonizing over it. However, > they WILL do their thing. They are usually right. In either case, > regardless which course is taken on Monday the market IS GOING to MOVE. > tomorrow should be an up day and a STRONG one. This is not consistent with > what commentators are saying based on valuations and an assortment of other ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 May 1997 07:00:58 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A Real Beginer Here Welcome Dave, Must be tough running a business with such a seasonal cycle as Christmas trees. Maybe we need to create Easter bushes and 4th of July shrubs and Thankgiving evergreens to smooth things out a little. I suspect if you have learned to manage such a seasonal cycle, you will be able to recognize how stocks, and thus the market, also run in cycles, however much more complicated and influenced by many more (and often hard to predict) factors. Right now, "M" has completed a correction which had led many analysts and commentators to even say we had gone into a bear mkt. We saw the S&P PE break 19 to the downside, less than a pt over a year prior. Now, we are back setting new highs and this nr is back in the mid 21 range, historically a pretty high level. One reason we went down was a fear of inflation leading to a series of Fed rate hikes (historically, there were usually a minimum of 4-5 hikes, of course this also ignores the fact that the last cycle of rate hikes started from only 3% while this time we started from 5%). The biggest single reason we reversed course and are now hitting new highs was the Employment Cost Index report, which came in way under expectation. This immediately led to a shift in consensus from expecting a hike at the May meeting and at least one more after that to a concensus that the Fed's won't hike at all. I personally made such a shift as this group knows, and I hate changing course, but did so based on my studies of the economic reports being issued. While I do not expect a hike on Tuesday, I would not commit fresh funds till after the meeting. A wild swing in sentiment (call it euphoria) has run this market way up. If the Feds don't hike, I expect us to go into a low volume consolidation for a short while. We are thru the earnings cycle, and I don't see a widespread reason to drive the mkt short term. If the Feds do hike, it will badly surprise the mkt (bond and stock) and we will tank seriously for days if not weeks. That would then present a time to enter with fresh funds as the economy itself is in excellent shape and growth stocks will do well over time. In the meantime, try paper trading to test your confidence in picking CANSLIM stocks. Also, if you haven't signed up to beta test O'Neill's Daily Graphs Online, I would suggest this. They are not billing as of yet (will be around $700/year eventually) and if you don't want this expense right away can do the beta test till it goes official (expected in July), then can get a five week trial subscription to the same in book form for a reasonable price. You can find DG Online at http://www.dailygraphs.com. Hope this helps a little tom w Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. - ---------- From: Dave Isbell To: 'Group' Subject: [CANSLIM] A Real Beginer Here Date: Friday, May 16, 1997 1:38 AM Hello, I have also been lurking about for some time now and I am getting ready to make my first trades. (I cashed out of my mutual funds today). I am planning on remaining in cash until after the fed announcement on Tuesday. I am still unsure where to begin. I have read the WON books on CANSLIM and achieve that goal. I feel confident in my ability to pick CANSLIM stocks. I feel totally inadequate to read the condition of the market. Like the man says, if your wrong about the general direction of the market, you will be in a world of hurt! (Something to that extent). family is trusting that I won't be a fool with our money. I am a Christmas tree grower and also work in the advertising industry. Thanks for allowing me to be a part of this group. Dave - ---------- ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 May 1997 07:11:09 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] HWP A warning on Hewlett Packard: In addition to missing earnings estimates, I note it has an up/down ratio of 0.7 (negative) and accum/dist of only C. This may make the gap down today that I expect more severe, and lower the odds for any "dead cat" bounce. tom w Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 May 1997 13:25:23 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A Real Beginer Here Dave, Welcome! To get a better understanding of the market, read the market indicator pages in IBD daily. See what the market did each day. You will start to get a feel over time for how the market is acting day to day and whether it seem's "healthy" or not. Right now I believe it is acting like it is feeling just fine, thank you. And I do not beleive it was showing irrational exhuberance to make the jump off of its recent lows that it just made. My reasoning is that the market was discounting another 50 basis point rate hike (in either one or two steps), and that now it sees that this is less likely, so has returned to prior levels quickly. Irrational exhuberance, IMHO, would be to continue to surge from here, without a period of consolidation (more or less sideways motion) first. The price and volume for the S&P, DOW, and NASDAQ each day are what I used to get a feel for the market. There are signs you will begin to recognize. For example, strong volume several days in a row, with little or no increase in price signals "distribution". IE. Lots of trading, but buyers and sellars are evenly matched. This is distribution as the indexes are reaching new lows (ie. sellars are coming in at this new level and the buyers are not enough to drive the prices up further). In a falling market, where you start to see days of high volume with no further downward progress, you may be seeing "accumulation". That is when the sellars are finding a buyer at that level for lots of selling. Other big signs, are a series of mostly up days which establish a new (possible) uptrend off of a bottom (like we had two or three weeks back) followed by a day when the market is up 1% and has higher volume than the day before. This signals the uptrend is back in place (until something reverses it). Other daily market signs I like to look at are up and down volume (number of shares traded on upticks in price vs number traded on down ticks) on the NYSE and NASDAQ. And also, the important New Highs and New Lows numbers from both exchanges (number of stocks hitting new 52 week highs vs number hitting new 52 week lows). Finally, notice the number of stocks Advancing vs Declining on the exchanges. These numbers alone along with the charts will start to give you a pretty good "feel". You just have to watch them for a few weeks to get an idea of what is normal for the current market environment. Right now we are in an uptrend and those numbers look quite a bit different than when in a down trend. Here are some examples from Quotes Plus' nightly report: - ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Daily Market Report for 05/09/1997 Index Summary Index Close Change Volume !DJ30 Dow Industrials 7169.53 +32.91 +0.46% 456.66 mil shares !DJ20 Dow Transports 2601.20 -16.03 -0.61% !DJ15 Dow Utilities 223.66 -0.28 -0.13% !COMP Nasdaq Composite 1335.05 +4.22 +0.32% 544.80 mil shares !XAX American Exchange 573.78 +2.83 +0.50% 17.64 mil shares !NYA NYSE Composite 429.23 +2.33 +0.55% New Highs New Lows Advances Declines Unchanged NYSE 106 10 1525 933 859 AMEX 24 5 300 203 169 NASDAQ 150 90 2312 1593 1827 - ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5/10 & 5/11 = Saturday & Sunday - ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Daily Market Report for 05/12/1997 Index Summary Index Close Change Volume !DJ30 Dow Industrials 7292.75 +123.22 +1.72% 462.79 mil shares !DJ20 Dow Transports 2634.80 +33.60 +1.29% !DJ15 Dow Utilities 224.54 +0.88 +0.39% !COMP Nasdaq Composite 1344.19 +9.14 +0.68% 529.71 mil shares !XAX American Exchange 578.47 +4.69 +0.82% 18.04 mil shares !NYA NYSE Composite 435.57 +6.34 +1.48% New Highs New Lows Advances Declines Unchanged NYSE 159 11 1766 760 804 AMEX 34 2 308 212 164 NASDAQ 177 85 2194 1789 1745 - ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Daily Market Report for 05/13/1997 Index Summary Index Close Change Volume !DJ30 Dow Industrials 7274.21 -18.54 -0.25% 491.40 mil shares !DJ20 Dow Transports 2626.79 -8.01 -0.30% !DJ15 Dow Utilities 222.00 -2.54 -1.13% !COMP Nasdaq Composite 1333.59 -10.60 -0.79% 578.60 mil shares !XAX American Exchange 579.60 +1.13 +0.20% 16.56 mil shares !NYA NYSE Composite 433.97 -1.60 -0.37% New Highs New Lows Advances Declines Unchanged NYSE 140 14 1135 1325 878 AMEX 33 6 261 275 161 NASDAQ 162 84 1933 2018 1779 - ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Daily Market Report for 05/14/1997 Index Summary Index Close Change Volume !DJ30 Dow Industrials 7286.16 +11.95 +0.16% 504.96 mil shares !DJ20 Dow Transports 2616.61 -10.18 -0.39% !DJ15 Dow Utilities 222.61 +0.61 +0.27% !COMP Nasdaq Composite 1335.55 +1.96 +0.15% 612.48 mil shares !XAX American Exchange 581.97 +2.37 +0.41% 22.72 mil shares !NYA NYSE Composite 435.60 +1.63 +0.38% New Highs New Lows Advances Declines Unchanged NYSE 160 9 1472 993 844 AMEX 32 10 265 233 182 NASDAQ 173 75 2159 1866 1709 - ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Daily Market Report for 05/15/1997 Index Summary Index Close Change Volume !DJ30 Dow Industrials 7333.55 +47.39 +0.65% 461.22 mil shares !DJ20 Dow Transports 2624.63 +8.02 +0.31% !DJ15 Dow Utilities 222.72 +0.11 +0.05% !COMP Nasdaq Composite 1353.58 +18.03 +1.35% 595.40 mil shares !XAX American Exchange 583.47 +1.50 +0.26% 28.19 mil shares !NYA NYSE Composite 437.65 +2.05 +0.47% New Highs New Lows Advances Declines Unchanged NYSE 106 10 1281 1165 882 AMEX 28 11 254 244 188 NASDAQ 161 78 2072 1904 1761 These numbers are more than you need, I ignore the AMEX for the most part. Another hint, train yourself to think in and work (in a spreadsheet for example) in percentages. Every thing is percentages in the markets. Assume you put $3030 of your hard earned money in a $15 stock, EXAM, and buy 200 shares with a $30 commission to your broker. Then you put another $3030 in a $100 stock, IBM, and buy 30 shares (same commission). Here is your portfolio: EXAM 200 shr bid: 14 1/2 ask: 15 IBM 30 shr bid: 99 7/8 ask: 100 Total invested (including commissions) = $6060. Remember you sell on the bid and buy on the ask. Assume the following and that you sell you stock with the same commission tomorrow: 1) Exam and IBM goes up by the following amounts: EXAM is bid 15 3/4 asked 16 1/2, last trade $16 1/2 up 1 1/2. IBM is bid 104 7/8 asked 105, last trade $105 up 5. Calculate your profit and % return on each (remember you must pay the $30 on each to sell them too). 2) They are both about unchanged the next day, but something happens and you need the money right away for an unusual opportunity to buy the truck you have been wanting, but you must pay cash today to get the deal. EXAM is bid: 14 1/2 asked 15. IBM is bid: 99 1/2 asked 99 3/4 Where did you lose the least money (remember the $30 selling commission)? Notice that it is not how many points (although we often talk about how many points a stock moved as a short hand, that assumes one knows the price of the stock and calculates the percent in one's head), but what the percent of movement is in the above examples. Also of course your red line, sell no matter what, stop loss is 8% on new positions. And many take profits on at least half a position when it reaches a 20 to 30% gain (from the pivot point). Tom's suggestion to try some paper trades is a good idea. Put them in a spreadsheet and track your gains/losses and percentages. Regards, Craig ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 May 1997 13:57:47 EDT From: drjsmith@juno.com (Dr. Jay B Smith) Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD? Hello everyone, I have a canslim question for everyone. In yesterdays IBD (Thurs) on page A2, there is a list of Firm's in the doghouse: Analysts' Worst Ratings. I am not sure why Adolph Coors is on the list with a rs 94 eps 92 and 1% below its 5 year high? Any explanations would be appreciated Jay in PA ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 16 May 1997 13:39:18 -0500 From: "Brenda" Subject: [CANSLIM] GATE-DG's At 1:30 CST on Friday I pulled up GATE. It shows the Rel Str to be 89. In the IBD paper which I receive by SNAILS mail, Friday's copy which is using the close on Thursday, is showing Rel Str to be 93. Does this mean that I am better off using a paper delivered in the afternoon, using the prior day's info, than to use an online service to get the most current numbers? It sure looks that way. That would be kind of sad. I wrote them and asked them to respond to me as to when they updated certain information that I use regularly. What this means is that if you are "thinking" about making a purchase and numbers have ANY bearing whatsoever on your purchase, you can do without DG's online for that info unless you want to make purchases using old and not current ratings. Discussion? James ------------------------------ End of canslim Digest V1 #176 ***************************** To subscribe to canslim Digest, send the command: subscribe canslim-digest in the body of a message to "majordomo@xmission.com". 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