From: canslim-owner@xmission.com (canslim Digest) To: canslim-digest@xmission.com Subject: canslim Digest V1 #226 Reply-To: canslim@xmission.com Sender: canslim-owner@xmission.com Errors-To: canslim-owner@xmission.com Precedence: canslim Digest Monday, June 16 1997 Volume 01 : Number 226 In this issue: Fw: [CANSLIM] Earnings Pre-announcements Re: [CANSLIM] WAMU Re: [CANSLIM] Monday's Breakouts Re: [CANSLIM] Market Top??? Re: [CANSLIM] Earnings Pre-announcements Re: [CANSLIM] Masters, little guys, ... Re: [CANSLIM] Masters, little guys, ... (was Re: DRL) [CANSLIM] Intro: Robert Venchiarutti Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Robert Venchiarutti RE: [CANSLIM] Masters, little guys, ... [CANSLIM] Hi Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Robert Venchiarutti [none] [CANSLIM] where the money's going [CANSLIM] My thoughts on selected oil&gas groups [CANSLIM] My thoughts on selected oil&gas groups Re: [CANSLIM] Masters, little guys, ... (was Re: DRL) Re: [CANSLIM] Masters, little guys, ... Re: [CANSLIM] A Few [OTC] Questions Re: [CANSLIM] Earnings Pre-announcements [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription Re: [CANSLIM] My thoughts on selected oil&gas groups Re: [CANSLIM] Masters, little guys, ... (was Re: DRL) [none] See the end of the digest for information on subscribing to the canslim or canslim-digest mailing lists and on how to retrieve back issues. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 15 Jun 1997 00:36:27 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] Earnings Pre-announcements Once again, a post doesn't bounce back, will try resending. tom w - ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Earnings Pre-announcements > Date: Saturday, June 14, 1997 10:03 PM > > First, I do not subscribe to the "theory" that analysts, or anyone > else for that matter, is actively "playing a game" or otherwise > trying to manipulate the price of stocks. Yes, certainly there have > been some major cases of securities fraud where this was done, but > I don't consider this criminal behavior characteristic of the mkt > at large. > > Keep in mind that an analyst's pay check is funded by the house he > works for. They are entitled to his research and analysis as > intellectual property. His report will be circulated inhouse for a > period of time before, if ever, any public announcement is made of > his findings. Seems only fair that the employees (brokers, fund > mgrs, etc) of that house should be able to act on the info first > since it is the commissions they generate that ultimately pay that > analyst his paycheck. > > An analyst who is wrong in his forecasting too often will be out of > a job. I personally believe that almost all analysts are ethical > and honest. When they make a forecast or earnings estimate, I think > they genuinely believe it to be as accurate as they can make it. If > their number crunching is off, or they place too much reliance on > what the company has told them, then they may be wrong. Just like a > broker or an investor, they must learn thru experience who to > believe and trust. > > If you believe you can do a better analysis than a paid > professional, then certainly you can follow your own judgement > rather than his. Keep in mind tho, analysts writing up a particular > company are not using TA, they are not trying to predict how the > mkt will price a stock, they are examining the fundamentals of the > company. > > Keep in mind too that when a brokerage house downgrades (or > upgrades) a stock, it can come as a result of news about that > company or its industry, a public comment from the co about its > prospects, order backlog, margins, etc, and/or an inhouse analyst's > review. > > tom w > > Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my > employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation > of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active > investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any > investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. > > ---------- > > From: Dbphoenix@aol.com > > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Earnings Pre-announcements > > Date: Friday, June 13, 1997 1:25 PM > > > > In a message dated 97-06-13 07:33:12 EDT, you write: > > > > Isn't there a possibility that this is part of the typical game > analysts > > play, particularly brokerage analysts, at this time of year in > order to drive > > down prices of stocks they want to accumulate? In other words, > if a CSer > > disagrees with a downgrade for solid reasons, might it not be to > his > > advantage to begin accumulating some of these on the offchance > (usually good) > > that the earnings will in fact come out better than expected? > There is also > > ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Jun 1997 16:05:51 GMT+7 From: Peter Christiansen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WAMU ** Reply to note from dcameron@harper.cc.il.us (Dave Cameron) Mon, 9 Jun 1997 23:55:37 -0500 (CDT) > Peter Christiansen has listed WAMU as a breakout for > Monday.... I'm curious-- what you do think would be > the ideal buy point (if you could have caught it). > Would you buy now? The pivot (buy) point was at 56 1/2, occurring on 6/9/97. It is still within 5% of the pivot point. I wouldn't be surprised to see it pullback a little from these levels because of the resistance on 2/20/97. Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ Britannia waives the rules. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Jun 1997 16:05:53 GMT+7 From: Peter Christiansen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Monday's Breakouts ** Reply to note from "Tom Worley" Tue, 10 Jun 1997 07:20:33 -0400 > Hi Peter, > Just finished looking at your list. Personally don't like the > erratic vol on ACCI, and disagree with you on the "volume" breakout > of BSC (much as I like it otherwise). Still, expect it will do well > from what I see. > > What's your best guess on Cooper (COO): flash in the pan or can it > keep going? > > Couldn't get DG Online to accept "GDX.A", what's the corp name? BSC made up for the average volume the next day. I haven't got any earnings estimates on COO. I did buy a bunch of call options on COO back in October of last year. I did pretty well on those. It continues to climb. GDX.A is Genovese Drug Stores (class A). Peter Christiansen Bangkok, Thailand Connected with OS/2 Warp 3.0 & The Post Road Mailer _____________________________________________________________________________________ I'm not lost; I'm "locationally disadvantaged." ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Jun 1997 10:14:33 -0400 (EDT) From: Eccless@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Top??? In a message dated 97-06-14 05:22:34 EDT, you write: << If conditions are just not right for small-caps (I'm not saying this is in fact the case), does it make sense to just piddle until conditions change or alter your strategy to take advantage of strength in mid and large caps? CS, even if altered, will prevent you from making any truly mammoth mistakes. >> Thanks for your comments. Actually, the bulk of my activities has been on the NYSE lately. I've been buying the mid to larger cap stocks (but not the Dow Jones type) when they meet RS and EPS etc. criteria. For example, Brush Wellman (BW) and Wolverine World Wide (WWW). Management ownership doesn't thrill me; management and shareholders do not always share the same interests. Small floats, while providing a form of leverage, can present problems. They may be difficult to sell even with a market order. I try not be pig-headed about such things. I like small-cap stocks, but if the larger cap stocks are the ones that are going up then that's where I will go. As for Tom's speculation that this could be a market top, the signs are certainly there. But if the market goes sideways or declines, there will still be opportunities. Douglas Herman ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Jun 1997 18:04:46 -0400 (EDT) From: Dbphoenix@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Earnings Pre-announcements In a message dated 97-06-14 18:31:12 EDT, you write: << Out of curiosity, your approach seems to be more TA oriented whereas analysts make projections mainly based on fundamental analysis, do you find that on many occasions you can come up with a contrary fundamental analysis better than the brokers-analysts that you can beleive in? that is, if you contradict some analyst's projection is it mainly because you do volumes of Fundamental analysis in depth or is it because the analyst is saying something that is intuitively not ringing a bell? Thanks >> Once I've determined that a company is fundamentally sound, I do tend to focus on TA, but TA which focuses on the interpretation of investor behavior, not the mumbo-jumbo advanced by the ARC (Analysts' Repertory Company). Given the frequency and rapidity at which analysts change their minds, I'm primarily concerned with how their pronouncements affect the behavior of the stock, not whether they are correct or not (many are just plain ignored, particularly those who are more interested in getting their names in the paper than in shedding light on some aspect of the stock). The analysts who followed 3Com thought everything was just fine until the bottom fell out. Then they behaved as though it was something they'd stepped in. Now it's wonderful again. Several years ago, everyone thought that everything was just peachy at IBM, probably the most over-followed and over-analyzed company in the universe. Then, again, the bottom fell out. So, no, I can't say I give the analytical community high scores in credibitlity. Sometimes they'll issue buy recommenations on stocks just because they have a lot of them, not because there's anything particularly sound about the company. And sometimes they'll issue holds (i.e., sells) on companies because they want more of it at a better price. As far as whether the company itself is giving analysts a reality check, sometimes this is on the up and up, and sometimes it's done to get the analysts off the company's back, the company knowing that if it doesn't meet expectations it'll get killed. Microsoft has been doing this for so long that people no longer pay any attention, but it does help prevent analysts from getting too excited. None of this should be traded, of course. One should always wait until the earnings report is actually released. At that point, a buying opportunity may be at hand. But all things considered, I'm far more comfortable with the market when analysts are downgrading stocks that when they are predicting the moon for everything in sight. You can't fall out of bed if you sleep on the floor. - -----Db ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Jun 1997 18:13:14 -0400 (EDT) From: Dbphoenix@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Masters, little guys, ... In a message dated 97-06-14 19:09:11 EDT, you write: << I thought that the CANSLIM entry criteria was a breakout from a base on heavy volume. I don't recall reading anything about not moving on it if the volume was "ridiculous." But I see your point, so how much volume would be considered ridiculous? And just when I thought I was getting a "feel" for all this... George >> Look at Thrusday's action on EAII. There may be absolutely nothing wrong, but this I would characterize as "exuberant". - -----Db ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Jun 1997 18:30:46 -0400 (EDT) From: Dbphoenix@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Masters, little guys, ... (was Re: DRL) In a message dated 97-06-15 01:01:28 EDT, you write: << There are lots of new members on the list since we first talked about this so perhaps it is prudent to say again that I don't have anything to do with ZRAN. I like its chart though. It broke out mid May from a steady downtrend, and it is establishing a nice uptrend. According to the channel trendlines, to this weeks action, and to its today's action, it looks like it is just about to kiss the lower trendline on ever decreasing volume. Boy, this is a good example of a proper price-volume behaviour and trend reversals. Anybody interested in what Dbphoenix was talking about in his last posts should take a look at this one. (Right, Db?) >> Indeed. Notice how the volume dries up as the price declines and increases as the price rises. There are exceptions on a few days, of course, but this "garland" pattern (for want of a better term) does show. The 9th is especially interesting. Even with all the addtional supply coming on the market, it almost made a new high anyway. And look at what happened to volume for the three days thereafter. I don't know where all the supply on the 9th came from or why the people who held it chose that point to put it on the market, but apparently they did all they wanted to do on that day. Now the volume is increasing again, as is the price. The only problem is that the pattern suggests only 6-8 points to the upside. Not chicken liver, but not a long-term hold, either. On the other hand, given its pattern, one might consider selling at the top of the channel, selling, waiting (or shorting), buying back at the bottom of the trend channel, etc. It won't last forever, but it might be fun while it lasts. A CS strategy? Probably not. But an interesting exercise, even if traded only on paper. - ----Db ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Jun 1997 16:18:44 -0000 From: "Robert Venchiarutti" Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Robert Venchiarutti Hello everyone. Since I am new to the list, I thought I'd introduce myself. I'm 31 years old, single (although I have been living with my girlfriend for four years), and live in San Francisco. I am an attorney by training, and have practiced at two of the prototypical big corporate law firms. Of course, I hated every minute of practicing. Thankfully, I was paid more than I deserved (why else would anyone endure the misery that is law?), saved as much as I could, paid off all of my debt, and, recently, was able to quit my job. I am now in the middle of a self-imposed sabbatical. My investing experience is moderate to good. I have been investing in mutual funds for about ten years through IRA's, 401(k)'s and regular taxable accounts. I was very aggressive in that I put nearly all of my savings in aggressive growth funds, and as you all can imagine, I have been very fortunate to have had my money in such a great bull market for the past ten years. The only individual stock I have bought is Microsoft, and that investment has been absolutely fantastic. Thus, my interest in investing has been sparked by my moderate success thus far. Now that I have free time, I find that I am drawn to the business section of the paper first, and when I'm in bookstores or a library, all I do is look for and read investing books. In that regard, the best book I have read is O'Neil's "How to Make Money In Stocks." I found the CANSLIM methodology to be convincing; the kind of investing philosophy that makes sense to me and with which I feel comfortable (although I am not to sure about the market-timing aspect of it). The fact that the Investor's Business Daily publishes accessible data which complements and informs the CANSLIM discipline is also a plus. To date, however, I have not made an investment based on CANSLIM. I am reseaching the market, and tracking stocks, and want to continue to do so for a while before I invest. Thanks to the person(s) who put this list together. I am really looking forward to learning as much as I can about CANSLIM, and perhaps after a little effort and time, I'll be in a position to share any insights I may have. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Jun 1997 20:06:08 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Robert Venchiarutti Welcome, Robert, anyone from The City is OK in my book, even if you are a lawyer ! Spent three years there, and fell in love with my wife and the area as well. Sounds like you are well prepared already to gain from this group. It's been quiet this weekend, must be a lot of good weather around the globe. If you are not already familiar with O'Neill's Daily Graphs, you may want to take out a trial (oops, forgot you're on sabbatical) subscription in the book form and/or sign up as a beta tester while it's still free for the online version. For single source research and CS data, can't be beat. tom w Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. - ---------- > From: Robert Venchiarutti > To: canslim@xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Robert Venchiarutti > Date: Sunday, June 15, 1997 12:18 PM > > Hello everyone. Since I am new to the list, I thought I'd introduce > myself. I'm 31 years old, single (although I have been living with my > girlfriend for four years), and live in San Francisco. I am an attorney by > training, and have practiced at two of the prototypical big corporate law ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Jun 1997 18:23:24 -0700 From: Joseph Vaughn-Perling Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Masters, little guys, ... I agree, I think the biggest power an investor can exercise is the right to say NO to a stock. When I buy a stock I have to think is this really the #1 stock out of the 12,000 or so that I have to choose from? Why settle for #2, or #40? > So I wait. More often than not, the stock settles down to a point where it > makes sense to buy it. Sometimes, though, it just keeps right on going. In > these case, I just say "fine" and move on to the next one, 'cause I know damn > good and well that if I chase it, I'll be sorry. > > -----Db > > ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Jun 1997 21:45:22 -0700 From: richard trebbien Subject: [CANSLIM] Hi Hi I am a new member of this group. My name is Richard and I live in Santa Cruz, Ca. I Found Williams' book in the library and loved it. I have been buying stocks for about 6 weeks and my portfolio is up about 20%. I am very happy! Nice to meet you, Richard ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Jun 1997 07:43:51 -0500 From: blake baysinger Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Robert Venchiarutti Tom Worley wrote: > Graphs, you may want to take out a trial (oops, forgot you're on > sabbatical) subscription in the book form and/or sign up as a beta > Welcome, Robert. You'll have to watch out for Tom Worley's Humor. You might find yourself with that "floppin around on the floor" "shootin milk out of your nose" laughter instead of concentrating on your stocks. (PS In reality I never miss a Tom Worley post. Thank you for your input Tom!) Blake ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Jun 1997 08:26:48 -0600 From: owner-canslim@xmission.com Subject: [none] This is a monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Sender: owner-canslim@xmission.com Precedence: bulk Reply-To: canslim Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are two remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group, or 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. To change your configuration, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Jun 1997 09:46:53 -0400 From: Michael A Langston Subject: [CANSLIM] where the money's going i mentioned last week, only partly tougue in cheek, that consumer spending had to be down because discretionary income's going instead to VFINX and similar funds -- here's a relevant run-down from the daily bulletin...strictly fyi mike ****** Date: Sat, 14 Jun 1997 01:15:05 -0400 From: TheStreet Admin Subject: TheStreet Daily Bulletin - 06/14/97 THE STREET'S DAILY BULLETIN Weekend Edition ...snip... Big Funds Lead the Way in Good Week for Indexers By Alex Berenson Staff Reporter A rising market tide lifted most mutual funds last week, but the biggest funds were once again the baddest. In the five trading days ended Thursday, the average U.S. diversified mutual fund gained 2.5%, according to data from Lipper Analytical Services. But S&P 500 index funds again beat the vast majority of their actively managed peers, gaining a stunning 4.8% for the week and leaving the pack even further behind. The flagship index fund, Vanguard Index: 500 Portfolio (VFINX), is now up 20.3% so far in 1997 and has beaten more than 96% of all U.S. diversified funds over that span. On the other hand, growth funds gained just 3% for the week, according to Lipper. And other categories were even weaker: Capital appreciation funds rose 1.8%, while small-cap funds gained a paltry 0.8% and micro-cap funds rose just 0.6%. Even more pitifully, many high-growth, high price-to-earnings multiple funds actually lost money for the week, hurt by problems in technology stocks. The four major funds run by well-known momentum fund manager Garrett Van Wagoner lost more than 2.5% for the week, and big aggressive growth funds from PBHG, Keystone and Strong also ended the week down. In all, some 150 funds lost money for the week. The largest loser: the $5 billion PBHG Growth (PBHGX). But most big funds were winners. The largest U.S. mutual fund, $57 billion Fidelity Magellan (FMAGX), rose 3.4%, and the third-biggest, Investment Company of America (AIVSX), gained 3.8%. Janus Twenty (JAVLX), which makes concentrated bets on big stocks, was the only major fund to beat the S&P indexers, with a 4.8% gain. The performance of sector funds also revealed the fissures in last week's market. While financial services funds gained 3.9% and health and biotech funds rose 2.5%, science and tech funds fell 0.5% and natural resources funds dropped 0.8% Internationally, Latin American funds, which are often highly correlated to the U.S. market, gained 4.2%, European funds gained 2% and Japan funds gained 1.5%. But funds investing Hong Kong and China had a terrible week, reversing an increasingly explosive bubble. Several Hong Kong funds were down more than 5%. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Jun 1997 10:30:10 -0700 From: Harlan Subject: [CANSLIM] My thoughts on selected oil&gas groups According to the model book of the biggest winners from 1953 to present 67% of the biggest winners were part of a group move. lets consider the oil&gas drillers for a minute. First the fundementals that are similar to those of the biggest winners of the past. 1. Of the strongest stocks in the group almost all had most recent quarters earnings up 100%+ minimum. 2. of the strongest stocks in the group almost all had most recent quarters sales up a minimum of 61% most were 90%+ . 3. almost all are exibitingsales acceleration not just qtr. to prior yr. qtr. but qtr. to qtr. as well. technical characteristics similar to those of the biggest winners of the past. 1.Most have finished or are attempting to finish intermediate term corrections/consolidations (6-9 months) and are breaking out of those bases on impressive volume. 2. leaders of group are hitting new highs or are within striking distance of new high territory. (those who are looking for issues with strong sales, strong eps, and big bases that have yet to break out do your homework now so that when and if they do break out ,at least the ones that havent yet, youll be prepared ) 3. relative strengths are hitting new highs (action speaks louder than opinions) or are seriously improving. issues for you to do your homework on : FLC-Falcon drilling,DO-diamond offshore,RIG-Transocean offshore,MDCO-Marine drilling,GLM-Global marine,NE-nobel drilling,PTEN-Patterson energy other stocks not in same gruop that look interestin VRC-Varco Intl.,BJS-BJservices, TUBO-Tuboscope,MCFE-McFarland, FGAS- Force energy, KEG-Key energy,UTI-UTI energy,NOIL,ESV,VTS,RON,BHI Just thought Id add my two sense to this group, Ive been monitoring for a few days now and noticed alot of knowledge floating around here (birds of a feather flock together) keep up the info overload coming thanks Lastly, one more thought on the TA side as to why I cant get this group out of my head and thats this 1. Lasts cycles leaders next cycles laggards, only this this gruop hasnt been a laggard (theyve been going though a normal correction/consolidation. sales&earnings continue to accelerate) 2. But the price of oil is going down ! my thought, these stocks dont trade of of the price of oil as much, plus this is theyre busy season,your not going to driil for oil in the north atlantic in the middle of winter are you! ACTION SPEAKS LOUDER THAN WORDS LET YOUR STOCKS TELL YOU WHAT TO DO ,LET THE MARKET TELL YOU WHAT TO DO, WHAT IS THE MARKET TELLING YOU ABOUT STOCKS LIKE DO,RIG,SII,FLC,UTI, ETC. In closing, do your homework,set your stops,dont get attached, dont get emotional, and always manage your risk. sincerly, Harlan Pyan As Tom Worley would say any statements or opinions are strictly that of my own and not of my employer. my comments should not be interpreted as a recomendation of any kind. I am a lisenced broker and an active investor all investors should do thier own research prior to any investment. this is strictly informational and educational info. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Jun 1997 10:30:10 -0700 From: Harlan Subject: [CANSLIM] My thoughts on selected oil&gas groups According to the model book of the biggest winners from 1953 to present 67% of the biggest winners were part of a group move. lets consider the oil&gas drillers for a minute. First the fundementals that are similar to those of the biggest winners of the past. 1. Of the strongest stocks in the group almost all had most recent quarters earnings up 100%+ minimum. 2. of the strongest stocks in the group almost all had most recent quarters sales up a minimum of 61% most were 90%+ . 3. almost all are exibitingsales acceleration not just qtr. to prior yr. qtr. but qtr. to qtr. as well. technical characteristics similar to those of the biggest winners of the past. 1.Most have finished or are attempting to finish intermediate term corrections/consolidations (6-9 months) and are breaking out of those bases on impressive volume. 2. leaders of group are hitting new highs or are within striking distance of new high territory. (those who are looking for issues with strong sales, strong eps, and big bases that have yet to break out do your homework now so that when and if they do break out ,at least the ones that havent yet, youll be prepared ) 3. relative strengths are hitting new highs (action speaks louder than opinions) or are seriously improving. issues for you to do your homework on : FLC-Falcon drilling,DO-diamond offshore,RIG-Transocean offshore,MDCO-Marine drilling,GLM-Global marine,NE-nobel drilling,PTEN-Patterson energy other stocks not in same gruop that look interestin VRC-Varco Intl.,BJS-BJservices, TUBO-Tuboscope,MCFE-McFarland, FGAS- Force energy, KEG-Key energy,UTI-UTI energy,NOIL,ESV,VTS,RON,BHI Just thought Id add my two sense to this group, Ive been monitoring for a few days now and noticed alot of knowledge floating around here (birds of a feather flock together) keep up the info overload coming thanks Lastly, one more thought on the TA side as to why I cant get this group out of my head and thats this 1. Lasts cycles leaders next cycles laggards, only this this gruop hasnt been a laggard (theyve been going though a normal correction/consolidation. sales&earnings continue to accelerate) 2. But the price of oil is going down ! my thought, these stocks dont trade of of the price of oil as much, plus this is theyre busy season,your not going to driil for oil in the north atlantic in the middle of winter are you! ACTION SPEAKS LOUDER THAN WORDS LET YOUR STOCKS TELL YOU WHAT TO DO ,LET THE MARKET TELL YOU WHAT TO DO, WHAT IS THE MARKET TELLING YOU ABOUT STOCKS LIKE DO,RIG,SII,FLC,UTI, ETC. In closing, do your homework,set your stops,dont get attached, dont get emotional, and always manage your risk. sincerly, Harlan Pyan As Tom Worley would say any statements or opinions are strictly that of my own and not of my employer. my comments should not be interpreted as a recomendation of any kind. I am a lisenced broker and an active investor all investors should do thier own research prior to any investment. this is strictly informational and educational info. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Jun 1997 11:41:46 -0500 From: George Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Masters, little guys, ... (was Re: DRL) Dbphoenix@aol.com wrote: > > Indeed. Notice how the volume dries up as the price declines and increases > as the price rises. And when it comes to interpreting this, therein lies the problem. As Zoran and I discussed earlier (and Tom commented on): Looking at a volume chart at the EOD will give you a completely different view of things than looking at it intra-day. Tele-Save (TALK) was a case in point. The EOD volume showed almost 3x ADV last Thursday as price fell to a support area, giving one the impression that support was about to be broken. But when you looked at the intra-day volume chart, the volume spike came at the very end of the trading day, after price had bounced off of support, thus giving you just the opposite impression. The only thing I can see on the EOD chart that would have been a tip-off, was that the high/low range was enough to make the bar look like a "long tail," which usually indicates price is about to make a turn and start, "chewing it's tail," I believe you call it. Also, there wasn't really an "approach" to that support level, with gradually increasing volume, but rather a sudden "fall," which is often questionable. > A CS strategy? Probably not. IMHO, the best CS strategy, would be one with a twist! George ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Jun 1997 11:23:34 -0500 From: George Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Masters, little guys, ... Dbphoenix@aol.com wrote: > > In a message dated 97-06-14 19:09:11 EDT, you write: > > << I thought that the CANSLIM entry criteria was a breakout from a base on > heavy volume. I don't recall reading anything about not moving on it if > the volume was "ridiculous." But I see your point, so how much volume > would be considered ridiculous? > > And just when I thought I was getting a "feel" for all this... > > George >> > > Look at Thrusday's action on EAII. There may be absolutely nothing wrong, > but this I would characterize as "exuberant". > > -----Db Yes, it did look a little "irrational." George ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Jun 1997 11:19:28 -0500 From: George Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] A Few [OTC] Questions Tom Worley wrote: > > Some thinly traded ones will often have a pt to several pts > when they are not "in play". When a stock is out-of-play, I assume that means that whoever is making a maket in that stock is wanting to restrict trading for some reason or other? If so, how are they able to increase the spread that much? I thought there were new rules on things like that. So as a general rule, any stock that has a spread of, say, 1/2+ point should probably be avoided. And then again, if this only happens to thinly traded stocks, we shouldn't really be trading them anyway, right? > I'm not personally familiar with Fidelity's execution quality The only reason I mention that is because I know a broker that works for a discount firm in the area and he was telling me that they use to run their orders through some place (can't remember the name) and the execution was pretty bad -- slow fills, mistakes, really bad fills, etc. They switched to Fidelity and he said the difference was like night and day, so they are staying with Fidelity. Thanks for taking the time to answer my questions. George ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 14 Jun 1997 22:03:02 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Earnings Pre-announcements First, I do not subscribe to the "theory" that analysts, or anyone else for that matter, is actively "playing a game" or otherwise trying to manipulate the price of stocks. Yes, certainly there have been some major cases of securities fraud where this was done, but I don't consider this criminal behavior characteristic of the mkt at large. Keep in mind that an analyst's pay check is funded by the house he works for. They are entitled to his research and analysis as intellectual property. His report will be circulated inhouse for a period of time before, if ever, any public announcement is made of his findings. Seems only fair that the employees (brokers, fund mgrs, etc) of that house should be able to act on the info first since it is the commissions they generate that ultimately pay that analyst his paycheck. An analyst who is wrong in his forecasting too often will be out of a job. I personally believe that almost all analysts are ethical and honest. When they make a forecast or earnings estimate, I think they genuinely believe it to be as accurate as they can make it. If their number crunching is off, or they place too much reliance on what the company has told them, then they may be wrong. Just like a broker or an investor, they must learn thru experience who to believe and trust. If you believe you can do a better analysis than a paid professional, then certainly you can follow your own judgement rather than his. Keep in mind tho, analysts writing up a particular company are not using TA, they are not trying to predict how the mkt will price a stock, they are examining the fundamentals of the company. Keep in mind too that when a brokerage house downgrades (or upgrades) a stock, it can come as a result of news about that company or its industry, a public comment from the co about its prospects, order backlog, margins, etc, and/or an inhouse analyst's review. tom w Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. - ---------- > From: Dbphoenix@aol.com > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Earnings Pre-announcements > Date: Friday, June 13, 1997 1:25 PM > > In a message dated 97-06-13 07:33:12 EDT, you write: > > Isn't there a possibility that this is part of the typical game analysts > play, particularly brokerage analysts, at this time of year in order to drive > down prices of stocks they want to accumulate? In other words, if a CSer > disagrees with a downgrade for solid reasons, might it not be to his > advantage to begin accumulating some of these on the offchance (usually good) > that the earnings will in fact come out better than expected? There is also > ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Jun 1997 11:14:41 -0600 From: jeff@scrooge.csd.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription This is a monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are two remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group, or 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. To change your configuration, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Jun 1997 12:38:22 -0500 From: Jimmy Sorrells Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] My thoughts on selected oil&gas groups Harlan wrote: > > According to the model book of the biggest winners from 1953 to present > 67% of the biggest winners were part of a group move. What model book are you referring to exactly? I would really like to read it. Thanks for the info. Jimmy - -- - --------------------------------------------------- Jimmy Sorrells Axiom Technology Inc. (205) 722-0075 voice 115 Murry Drive (205) 721-0805 fax Madison, AL 35758 jimmy.sorrells@axiomtech.com - --------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Jun 1997 16:00:01 -0400 (EDT) From: Dbphoenix@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Masters, little guys, ... (was Re: DRL) In a message dated 97-06-16 14:11:43 EDT, you write: << As Zoran and I discussed earlier (and Tom commented on): Looking at a volume chart at the EOD will give you a completely different view of things than looking at it intra-day. Tele-Save (TALK) was a case in point. The EOD volume showed almost 3x ADV last Thursday as price fell to a support area, giving one the impression that support was about to be broken. But when you looked at the intra-day volume chart, the volume spike came at the very end of the trading day, after price had bounced off of support, thus giving you just the opposite impression. >> Frankly, George, I've lost the thread here, so I'll just start fresh. I assume that your quote of me was in the context of EOD, which is what I follow 90% of the time. TALK is a good example of when to revert from EOD to intraday. When volume like this comes out of nowhere, using EOD is pretty pointless, even though the stock closed above its low. In a situation such as this, I'd ignore it and look up the intraday to see what the hell is going on. Doing so, I'd see just what you've pointed out. As far as TALK is concerned, though, the jury is still out. There's been no follow-through. It could sit here and scratch itself for who knows how long, or it could rise, or it could fall. But until some interday pattern is reestablished, the daily price and volume pattern isn't going to be of much help here. Personally, I wouldn't even call it tradeable. - -----Db ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 16 Jun 1997 14:28:10 -0600 From: Dbphoenix@aol.com Subject: [none] In a message dated 97-06-16 14:04:42 EDT, you write: << First, I do not subscribe to the "theory" that analysts, or anyone else for that matter, is actively "playing a game" or otherwise trying to manipulate the price of stocks. Yes, certainly there have been some major cases of securities fraud where this was done, but I don't consider this criminal behavior characteristic of the mkt at large.>> Tom, I did not mean to imply that analysts and brokerages are in any way crooked or that they engage in "criminal behavior". There are brokers who still cold-call and churn, but I have no idea what portion of the brokerage community they represent. Even so, their behavior is hardly criminal. I assume that the vast majority of brokers do not engage in any sort of hanky-panky at all. The point I was trying to make with regard to recommendations was that one can assume that when a brokerage initiates a buy recommendation, much less reiterates one, it already has the stock in its coffers, and that one can assume also that the reverse is true when it issues its downgrades. If I offended you or anyone on this board who is a member of the brokerage or analytical community, my apologies. <> All true, but it's also worth remembering that all analysts have access to pretty much the same information. What sets a given analyst apart is his ability to interpret that information. Some are very good at it. Some are not so good. Therefore, it behooves the individual investor to pay attention not so much to what the analyst is saying but to which analyst is saying it, if he pays any attention at all. The Vinick (or whatever his name was) situation at Magellan, when he was touting MU at the same time he was dumping it, was out of the ordinary. But it happens. The vigilant investor will, as always, do his own homework. There are plenty of IIs out there who are every bit as good at analysis as the guys who do it for a living. We're lucky to have some of them in this group. <> Whether this is true or not, I have no idea. However, several broker friends tell me that a number of analysts do use TA to determine when to issue buy and sell recs. But again, I have no idea how common the practice is, any more than I know how many use O'N's service. Again, brokers and analysts are neither heroes or villains, with rare exceptions. Most of them are just doing their jobs the best way they know how. But they're not necessarily better at it than the dedicated individual investor. Therefore, it's helpful to remember that these guys are not providing anyone with inside information, but only their opinions. When they stumble, like Elaine Garzarelli, they're eaten alive, which I've always thought was pretty unfair. What are so many people doing paying so much attention anyway? As BigO says, watch the fish. - -----Db ------------------------------ End of canslim Digest V1 #226 ***************************** To subscribe to canslim Digest, send the command: subscribe canslim-digest in the body of a message to "majordomo@xmission.com". 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