From: canslim-owner@xmission.com (canslim Digest) To: canslim-digest@xmission.com Subject: canslim Digest V1 #257 Reply-To: canslim@xmission.com Sender: canslim-owner@xmission.com Errors-To: canslim-owner@xmission.com Precedence: canslim Digest Saturday, August 2 1997 Volume 01 : Number 257 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] An anomoly??? (Brokerage stocks strength) Re: [CANSLIM] An anomoly??? (Brokerage stocks strength) [CANSLIM] BS (Bethlehem Steel) [CANSLIM] Update: Economic Calendar, Comments Re: [CANSLIM] BS (Bethlehem Steel) Re: [CANSLIM] Update: Economic Calendar, Comments [CANSLIM] Tom W. [CANSLIM] Chart reading help - CYMI and ACRT RE: [CANSLIM] Video Re: [CANSLIM] Chart reading help - CYMI and ACRT Re: [CANSLIM] Chart reading help - CYMI and ACRT Re: [CANSLIM] Video [CANSLIM] Free WON seminar [CANSLIM] Mkt Comments, Economics Update Re: [CANSLIM] Tom W. [CANSLIM] Fw: Mkt Comments, Economics Update Re: [CANSLIM] Mkt Comments, Economics Update [CANSLIM] MSON [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription [CANSLIM] Unemployment okay, NAPM the surprise! Re: [CANSLIM] Unemployment okay, NAPM the surprise! Re: [CANSLIM] Mkt Comments, [CANSLIM] Sending large files to the canslim group See the end of the digest for information on subscribing to the canslim or canslim-digest mailing lists and on how to retrieve back issues. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 30 Jul 1997 21:09:21 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] An anomoly??? (Brokerage stocks strength) Good point and I hadn't thought about that. We have already been seeing consolidation within the securities industry, thus leaving fewer smaller candidates for future acquisition. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - ---------- > From: Craig Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] An anomoly??? (Brokerage stocks strength) > Date: Wednesday, July 30, 1997 4:59 PM > > Just ran across one more macro trend that may be affecting this group: the > consolidation of the Banking Industry. Speculation is that as Glass-Stegall > fades into memory over the next couple of years (assuming Congress continues ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 30 Jul 1997 21:12:55 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] An anomoly??? (Brokerage stocks strength) Thanks for the thoughs, Craig. I was certainly surprised at the year to year comparisons, expected them to be much better, esp considering how busy this summer has been. I suspect they are also drawing unusual strength from the steadily falling interest rate (down another 4 BP today to 6.33). Hard to believe we were approaching 7.25 in March and expecting even more rate hikes throughout the year only 4 months ago. What a change! Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - ---------- > From: Craig Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] An anomoly??? (Brokerage stocks strength) > Date: Wednesday, July 30, 1997 11:42 AM > > 1. On a longer term basis, it looks like Japan's market for Brokerages and > Investment Bankers is finally about to open up. Over the next couple of > years, the larger US firms may be doing quite a bit of business in a new and > > 2. These firms also seem to be trading right around their long term growth > rates on a PE basis. Another thought is that perhaps the market saw 1996 as > a special situation year and expected 1997 and 1998 to be much worse than > has turned out to be the case (ie. poor earnings expected due to poor market > > SCH is the purest CANSLIM type stock in the group. They constantly seem to > get it right and come out with new products. However, I have seen a couple > of sell suggestions lately based on "valuation". It looks like it will > continue to be a good long term growth story IMO. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 30 Jul 1997 21:36:04 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] BS (Bethlehem Steel) Once again, earnings blew away street estimates. Was expected to do 23 cents (year ago was 14, last qtr was 25), instead reported 32 cents. Up on heavy vol full point, 10.1% move ranked it the tenth highest percent gainer on NYSE. Sure looking forward to looking at its chart this weekend. Even with the likely improvement in RS and EPS, probably still won't be a good CS stock, but still looks good for a cheap big name. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 30 Jul 1997 21:59:06 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Update: Economic Calendar, Comments A coupla minor updates to my last Econ Cal: Q2 GDP was expected to be up 1.8%, now concensus leans toward 1.9% with comments about the trade gap widening, partially due strengthening dollar, having either a neutral or even neg impact on GDP (this is an inflationary signal BTW). Japanese consumption slowed in the spring as they adjusted to some higher taxes. Employment Report - was estimated at up 200,000 non-farm jobs, now at 197,000 jobs. Also overall unemployment rate estimate raised from 4.9% to 5.0%. COMMENTS (and random thoughts): Today's new home sales came in higher than expected, reported up 6.1% in June at an annual rate of 819,000 (annual rate expected was 810K). Principal cause was adjusting the May nrs from up 7.1% to only up 1.0%. Much more significant is that the inventory of new homes available is down to 282,000 representing a 4.2 month supply, lowest total nr of homes for sale since July 1993 and lowest monthly supply since July 1971. This was also the fifth consecutive month is which supply was under five months, lat time this happened was late 1970 into late 1971. Overall new construction fell another 1% in June. Residental building fell 5% however single family homes dropped 7% while multi-family rose 12%. With inventory falling and construction slowing, is the "housing cost factor" going to be the next Greenspan bugaboo?? With today's 80 pt gain, the S&P500 trailing PE now stands at 23.67, up .27 for the day. The highest this has been in the past decade is 24.9 in Q1, 1992. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 30 Jul 1997 19:53:22 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BS (Bethlehem Steel) At 09:36 PM 7/30/97 -0400, you wrote: >Once again, earnings blew away street estimates. Was expected to do >23 cents (year ago was 14, last qtr was 25), instead reported 32 >cents. Up on heavy vol full point, 10.1% move ranked it the tenth >highest percent gainer on NYSE. Sure looking forward to looking at >its chart this weekend. Even with the likely improvement in RS and >EPS, probably still won't be a good CS stock, but still looks good >for a cheap big name. Was bored and playing with the Zacks database: EPS Growth = -$1.60, +377.78% last quarter but -40.00 the quarter before, debt is 52 x equity, PEG of 3.60 - yuk. Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information tfish@spiritone.com WWW http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish -- See naked fish and rocks! ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 30 Jul 1997 22:19:57 -0500 (CDT) From: dcameron@harper.cc.il.us (Dave Cameron) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Update: Economic Calendar, Comments Tom wrote: > With today's 80 pt gain, the S&P500 trailing PE now stands at > 23.67, up .27 for the day. The highest this has been in the past > decade is 24.9 in Q1, 1992. > Wow... the S&P gained 80 today, I'm impressed! . Gotta watch the wording in the same sentence there Tom, All in good fun, Dave Cameron dcameron@harper.cc.il.us ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 31 Jul 1997 00:34:30 -0700 From: Sam Funchess Subject: [CANSLIM] Tom W. I called IBD yesterday and they said they have only sent out the 15 min. video. Could you grab your version and see if its 15 mins or over an hour. They also said if you got the longer version you will be receiving a new copy because the original had to be re-recorded. Thanks Sam coach@spyder ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 31 Jul 1997 00:53:28 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Chart reading help - CYMI and ACRT Notice how both of these stocks have long bases that end about half way through the current base. In both cases there is a sort of failed breakout, with ACRT at about 15 on 5/22 and with CYMI at about 53.25 on 5/23 (co-incidental dates?). Anyhow ... they then both have this fairly major pullback that looks sort of like a double bottom, but not really. Then they accelerate off the big dip like a little rocket coming from the bottom of a "secondary base". Do they pause at resistance/overhead? Nope. Without so much as a "by your leave", they are out of there. Anybody got a handle on how to classify, read, interpret, take advantage of these patterns? Are they as similar to your eyes as they are to mine? Just looking for ideas. Regards, Craig ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 31 Jul 1997 02:48:09 -0400 From: "Robert K. Henry" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Video On Monday, July 28, 1997 2:51 AM, Sam Funchess[SMTP:coach@spyder.net] = wrote: >Has anyone received the video from IBD? They called me six or so weeks >ago and said they would be sending it to all IBD subscribers. I haven't received any video. I'd heard about the video here and I read = a mention about it in an article in IBD but by now I've pretty much = forgotten about it. - -- Bob Henry ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 31 Jul 1997 13:47:31 -0400 (EDT) From: Dbphoenix@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Chart reading help - CYMI and ACRT In a message dated 97-07-31 10:45:41 EDT, you write: << Notice how both of these stocks have long bases that end about half way through the current base. In both cases there is a sort of failed breakout, with ACRT at about 15 on 5/22 and with CYMI at about 53.25 on 5/23 (co-incidental dates?). Anyhow ... they then both have this fairly major pullback that looks sort of like a double bottom, but not really. Then they accelerate off the big dip like a little rocket coming from the bottom of a "secondary base". Do they pause at resistance/overhead? Nope. Without so much as a "by your leave", they are out of there. Anybody got a handle on how to classify, read, interpret, take advantage of these patterns? Are they as similar to your eyes as they are to mine? >> As far as ACRT goes, I suspect the retracement the first week of May was an attempt to fill in the gap on 4/30 which resulted in an uncompleted cup. Thereafter, it did just what it's supposed to do and form a handle, during which volume dried up dramatically. The handle declined more than it should have, but, again, volume was low. When it touched major support in the 11-12 area, it bounced off on increasing volume which continued throughout the move up. Therefore, the fact that it bounced off that support and that volume increased was a bullish sign and you would have been justified in taking at least half a position there. When it drove through 15 on good volume, you could have pyramided. What mattered throughout all of this was volume. The critical element with CYMI, IMO, was not only volume but the 50 DMA. Notice that after it violated the 50 on 6/11, volume (actually, demand) drove it back up above the 50, after which volume dried up all the way to 7/9. During that time it hugged the 50 closely, after which it left that average on increasing volume. When it dipped on the 17th, so did volume. When it took off again, volume did as well. So other than volume, the important element in the first case was price support. In the second, it was the 50 DMA. But volume was the big clue in both cases. It's important to remember, however, that during earnings season, news can have a significant effect on a stock, even if its only earnings reported by another stock in the same group. When evaluating the importance of any given move, check events as well. The "breakout" you see may only be a hiccup. - ----Db ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 31 Jul 1997 20:30:26 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Chart reading help - CYMI and ACRT Db, At 01:47 PM 7/31/97 -0400, you wrote: >So other than volume, the important element in the first case was price >support. In the second, it was the 50 DMA. But volume was the big clue in >both cases. > Nice response. Thank you for your thoughts. Not a "standard" Canslim buying pattern in either case, but certainly buyable based on the criteria you outlined. O'Neil says that frequently when you watch a stock over the weeks of basing action, on one particular day it will look like the pattern has "formed out" and that the stock is now ready to go at any time. In both cases, the stocks took off from too low in the base by traditional criteria. Frequently this results in a weakening breakout, where the stock hangs up and eventually falls back into the base. CYMI certainly did not do that and it appears that ACRT may consolidate a bit here and then move on. So in both cases, they will probably end up ok, in spite of no significant pause at resistance. I agree with you that volume is the key in both cases (in fact with all stocks). But in the past I had always viewed this as a weak formation, in spite of the volume, because it starts so low in the base. It looks like the day to do that 1/2 position buy you mention on ACRT is 7/24 as it poked through the 50dma at 13 1/2. With the pyramid as you mention on 7/28 as it broke 15. I fully anticipated a pullback and handle formation at that point however - pretty scary buying. (The above buy points are with the first after a 21% gain in 5 trading days and the second one after a 27% gain in 7 trading days!) Same thing to buy the bounce off support - doubt I could have pulled the trigger at that point (too low in the base, could be weeks working higher - and not exceptional volume either on 7/18 at 11 7/8). CYMI is a bit easier I suppose, but I can't really see a buying opportunity before 7/10 at around 55 and even then the volume was not stellar. But combined with the next day (7/11) as it broke through 58 on it's way to 61+ with excellent volume, I suppose one could buy there. The volume was great, but ... once again you would be buying after a 22% gain in 6 trading days without a handle for support! Non-breakout Canslim, #9! (or something) - and no ledge handle or support to hang your hat on. (Other non-breakout opportunities include, the right side of the cup trick, half way up the handle buying, buying on a volume surge that doesn't quite hit a new high, buying retracements from breakouts that are acting right, 10 dma bounces, 50 dma bounces). And ACRT/CYMI are additional situations. Takes nerves of steel, but looks like it might be well worth it. I will be looking for similar patterns in the future. Thanks again for your insights, Db! Best Regards, Craig ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 31 Jul 1997 21:09:59 -0400 From: saltydog Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Video Robert K. Henry wrote: > > On Monday, July 28, 1997 2:51 AM, Sam Funchess[SMTP:coach@spyder.net] wrote: > >Has anyone received the video from IBD? They called me six or so weeks > >ago and said they would be sending it to all IBD subscribers. > > I haven't received any video. I'd heard about the video here and I read a mention about it in an article in IBD but by now I've pretty much forgotten about it. > -- > Bob Henry Hi Bob: I called IBD about the video because I haven't received mine either. They told me that they have had production problems and the video's will not be available until late August or early September. Neil Himber ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 31 Jul 1997 22:10:44 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Free WON seminar For those that can get to The City (San Francisco) on August 15 (a Friday) WON is doing another seminar at the SF Marriott Hotel, 55 Fourth St, from 7:30PM to 9:30PM. For reservations call 800-831-2525.. Wouldn't be surprised if this nr could also get you the schedule of other free seminars around the country. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 31 Jul 1997 22:54:57 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Mkt Comments, Economics Update Treasurys once again acted on a presumption of timid inflation and no upcoming rate hike by the Feds, rising nearly half a point to yield 6.30. Futures were slightly lower, suggesting a further move tomorrow. Rates haven't been this low in nearly 18 months (Feb 19, 1996). Still amazing to me we were nearly a full point higher as recently as March after the Feds hiked once, then called a timeout that hasn't yet ended (a little football jargon here, since pre-season has FINALLY started). The "prices paid" component of today's GDP suggests that this item is indicating inflation, but the mkt is ignoring it. Chicago's NAPM regional report also suggests the nat'l NAPM report may be stronger than anticipated. It is expected to be 56.0%, up from 55.7% in June. Today's report showing initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level since 1974 is being explained away as problems with the Labor Dept's seasonal adjustments due to the automotive industry's practice of laying off workers while they retool for the new year's models. The Dow 30 gained 549.82 for the month of July, the largest point gain in its history for one month, altho the percent gain (at 7.16%) was respectable it was overshadowed by the record of over 40% in April 1933. Today's GDP report, while stronger than expected, was offset by a one percentage point adjustment downward in the earlier Q1 report. One of the biggest improvements for a "non inflationary environment" was consumer spending which was only up 0.8% compared to Q1 when it grew by 5.3%. Two "inflation indicators" in the GDP report were esp encouraging. The Chain Weighed Index was up 1.4%, compared to 2.4% in Q1. This was the smallest increase since Q3 of 1963, when it was up 0.7%. The Implicit Price Deflator was at 1.4% from 2.4% in Q1 (hmmmmmm, interesting coincidence, is there a conspiracy here? Is Greenspan, or maybe Slick Willy, manipulating the nrs but with no imagination?? Or maybe they are just hung up on primary nrs??), last time this one was this low was Q2, 1964 (kickback to the sixties, guys and gals!!). Wait a minute, isn't that when slippery Dick Nixon owned the White House??? Another conspiracy? Just coincidence??? (slick Willy, slippery Dick Nixon). Nah, he was a Republican, probably rolling over in his grave right about now at all this balanced budget stuff and declining Fed deficits. (sorry Jeff, will try to keep the political satire down, just trying to make economics fun!!) Real final sales (GDP less inventory change) was only 1.9% in Q2, down from the 3.0% of Q1. The average thus far in 1997 is 2.5%, the ideal target for the Feds. Economists appear to be sticking to their forecast for a concensus report of new jobs at up 197,000 and an overall unemployment rate of 5.0%. We'll know at 8:30AM Friday. Nobody is taking bets on the Feds hiking the interest rate in the August 19 FOMC meeting. The chances of a hike at the Sept 30 meeting also appear at this time to be very low. Still, however, a possibility of a rate hike late this year, altho at this point I would give it less than a 50% chance of happening. Enough boring economics stuff for tonight. Hoped you learned something new, and are better prepared for tomorrow. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 31 Jul 1997 23:12:09 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tom W. Didn't watch it yet, but appears just to be the 15 minute "welcome to IBD" video. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - ---------- > From: Sam Funchess > To: Can Slim > Subject: [CANSLIM] Tom W. > Date: Thursday, July 31, 1997 3:34 AM > > I called IBD yesterday and they said they have only sent out the 15 min. > video. Could you grab your version and see if its 15 mins or over an > hour. They also said if you got the longer version you will be receiving > a new copy because the original had to be re-recorded. > > Thanks > Sam > coach@spyder > ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 1 Aug 1997 06:43:21 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: Mkt Comments, Economics Update Once again didn't get this one back from majordomo, nor see any comments from the group (altho postings so few hard to tell from this). If it's a dup for you, sorry. tom w - ---------- > From: Tom Worley > To: CANSLIM > Cc: Jacques Ferron ; Bob Davis > Subject: Mkt Comments, Economics Update > Date: Thursday, July 31, 1997 10:54 PM > > Treasurys once again acted on a presumption of timid inflation and > no upcoming rate hike by the Feds, rising nearly half a point to > yield 6.30. Futures were slightly lower, suggesting a further move > tomorrow. Rates haven't been this low in nearly 18 months (Feb 19, > 1996). Still amazing to me we were nearly a full point higher as > recently as March after the Feds hiked once, then called a timeout > that hasn't yet ended (a little football jargon here, since > pre-season has FINALLY started). > > The "prices paid" component of today's GDP suggests that this item > is indicating inflation, but the mkt is ignoring it. Chicago's NAPM > regional report also suggests the nat'l NAPM report may be stronger > than anticipated. It is expected to be 56.0%, up from 55.7% in > June. Today's report showing initial jobless claims fell to the > lowest level since 1974 is being explained away as problems with > the Labor Dept's seasonal adjustments due to the automotive > industry's practice of laying off workers while they retool for the > new year's models. > > The Dow 30 gained 549.82 for the month of July, the largest point > gain in its history for one month, altho the percent gain (at > 7.16%) was respectable it was overshadowed by the record of over > 40% in April 1933. > > Today's GDP report, while stronger than expected, was offset by a > one percentage point adjustment downward in the earlier Q1 report. > One of the biggest improvements for a "non inflationary > environment" was consumer spending which was only up 0.8% compared > to Q1 when it grew by 5.3%. > > Two "inflation indicators" in the GDP report were esp encouraging. > The Chain Weighed Index was up 1.4%, compared to 2.4% in Q1. This > was the smallest increase since Q3 of 1963, when it was up 0.7%. > The Implicit Price Deflator was at 1.4% from 2.4% in Q1 (hmmmmmm, > interesting coincidence, is there a conspiracy here? Is Greenspan, > or maybe Slick Willy, manipulating the nrs but with no > imagination?? Or maybe they are just hung up on primary nrs??), > last time this one was this low was Q2, 1964 (kickback to the > sixties, guys and gals!!). Wait a minute, isn't that when slippery > Dick Nixon owned the White House??? Another conspiracy? Just > coincidence??? (slick Willy, slippery Dick Nixon). Nah, he was a > Republican, probably rolling over in his grave right about now at > all this balanced budget stuff and declining Fed deficits. > > (sorry Jeff, will try to keep the political satire down, just > trying to make economics fun!!) > > Real final sales (GDP less inventory change) was only 1.9% in Q2, > down from the 3.0% of Q1. The average thus far in 1997 is 2.5%, the > ideal target for the Feds. > > Economists appear to be sticking to their forecast for a concensus > report of new jobs at up 197,000 and an overall unemployment rate > of 5.0%. We'll know at 8:30AM Friday. > > Nobody is taking bets on the Feds hiking the interest rate in the > August 19 FOMC meeting. The chances of a hike at the Sept 30 > meeting also appear at this time to be very low. Still, however, a > possibility of a rate hike late this year, altho at this point I > would give it less than a 50% chance of happening. > > Enough boring economics stuff for tonight. Hoped you learned > something new, and are better prepared for tomorrow. > > Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my > employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation > of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active > investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any > investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully > my comments will better inform and educate all investors. > > tom w ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 01 Aug 1997 08:55:20 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mkt Comments, Economics Update Tom, You wrote: >The Dow 30 gained 549.82 for the month of July, the largest point >gain in its history for one month, altho the percent gain (at >7.16%) was respectable it was overshadowed by the record of over >40% in April 1933. >Today's GDP report, while stronger than expected, was offset by a >one percentage point adjustment downward in the earlier Q1 report. >One of the biggest improvements for a "non inflationary >environment" was consumer spending which was only up 0.8% compared >to Q1 when it grew by 5.3%. Are we in heaven? Amazing. Al this and now a "balanced budget accord" and big ole' capital gains tax cut! Well, wonder what's holding back the Dow. I would have expected irrational exuberance by now (wink). Heck we ARE closer to 10,000 than to 5,000 aren't we? (Heard any good "yeeeeee-haws" from any investors lately?) Guess we will just have to muddle along until some REALLY good news comes out. Seriously, seems like the budget bill signing might be a good time for the beginning of a shakeout ("buy the rumour, sell on the news"). Let's keep our eyes peeled on the market indicators page in IBD. I have been talking to some folks who have had their 401k in bonds until recently. They are moving it to stocks next week. They might be the among the last ones in the pool. Of course the steady monthly 401k contributions does provide some prop, even after all the piggy banks have been emptied to buy stocks. As always, many thanks for posting the upcoming reports and results. I continue to enjoy your commentary. It is an amazing economic and political environment. Best regards, Craig ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 1 Aug 1997 08:53:31 -0500 From: "Ricardo Bekin" Subject: [CANSLIM] MSON Misonix (MSON) seems to be about to make a new high, after yesterday's announcement of a large new order. Volume yesterday was decent. There is no recent news on the lawsuit. Ricardo Bekin (disclaimer: I'm in at 8 3/8) ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 1 Aug 1997 08:00:03 -0600 From: jeff@scrooge.csd.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription This is a monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are two remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group, or 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. To change your configuration, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 1 Aug 1997 07:43:34 -0700 From: "Ken Davidson" Subject: [CANSLIM] Unemployment okay, NAPM the surprise! Economic indicators galore today. First thing this morning we recieved the all awaited unemployment report showing us that there was no wage inflation at all as hourly earnings came in unchanged at $12.22, while the factory workweek fell 0.1 hour to 41.7 hours and factory overtime fell 0.1 hour to 4.6 in July. Unemployment itself fell back to 4.8% and jobs created were +316,000. On the initial release bonds and stocks tanked because the numbers appeared so strong but when everyone looked at the hourly earnings they decided to rally up at the open. The surprise came at 10:00est. The first indicator out was factory orders which came out lower then expectations at +1.2%. Everyone ignored that number and the University of Michigans consumer sentiment report coming out at 107.1. When the national association of purchasing managers number came out much stronger then expected at 58.6 from 55.7 last month, the market tanked! Bonds sold off a full point taking the yield to 6.40%. The Dow was off -100 points and the S & P 500 off -13.00. Why the huge selloff? Prices paid in the NAPM were way up to 53.6. Nobody seems to have expected any type of strength in the economy so this gives them a reason to take some profits. The rest of the day should be interesting!! Have a good one! Further information will be in the letter later on this weekend! Ken Agora Outlook ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 1 Aug 1997 22:57:57 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Unemployment okay, NAPM the surprise! I have been noticing some surprising growth in the prices paid components in some of the regional reports, but didn't seem to be a national problem till today. Still, the immediate sentiment seems to be that the Feds will not hike at the August meeting. And the final 2 plus pt selloff in the bond mkt essentially took away one week of gains, may chase some bond money into the stock mkt which was amazingly strong today despite the sharp correction in the financials. Also sets the Feds up nicely for next week's quarterly bond auction. And with the sharp reduction in budget deficit this year, the supply of new bonds going on the mkt has been greatly reduced. Anybody know anything about what's going on with Texas Inst (TXN)?? Up today nearly seven pts on no recent news. Anyone hear any rumors? Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - ---------- > From: Ken Davidson > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] Unemployment okay, NAPM the surprise! > Date: Friday, August 01, 1997 10:43 AM > > Economic indicators galore today. First thing this morning we recieved the > all awaited unemployment report showing us that there was no wage inflation > at all as hourly earnings came in unchanged at $12.22, while the factory > workweek fell 0.1 hour to 41.7 hours and factory overtime fell 0.1 hour to > 4.6 in July. Unemployment itself fell back to 4.8% and jobs created were > +316,000. On the initial release bonds and stocks tanked because the > numbers appeared so strong but when everyone looked at the hourly earnings > they decided to rally up at the open. The surprise came at 10:00est. The > first indicator out was factory orders which came out lower then > expectations at +1.2%. Everyone ignored that number and the University of > Michigans consumer sentiment report coming out at 107.1. When the national > association of purchasing managers number came out much stronger then > expected at 58.6 from 55.7 last month, the market tanked! Bonds sold off a > full point taking the yield to 6.40%. The Dow was off -100 points and the > S & P 500 off -13.00. Why the huge selloff? Prices paid in the NAPM were > way up to 53.6. Nobody seems to have expected any type of strength in the > economy so this gives them a reason to take some profits. The rest of the > day should be interesting!! Have a good one! > > Further information will be in the letter later on this weekend! > > Ken > Agora Outlook ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 2 Aug 1997 07:59:04 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mkt Comments, Well, the employment report on Friday, while way ahead of expectation, barely rippled the mkt, mostly due the lack of inflationary evidence in labor costs and work week expansion. The NAPM report, however, was a different matter. Nearly three percentage points above expectation, it clearly shows strong economic expansion and set the bond mkt into a frenzy of selling (a good bit of which was admittedly profit taking). The quarterly bond auction is next week, and is now expected to be much stronger as yields improved so sharply on Friday as the price fell over two pts. What was most impressive to me was the strength in the stock mkt despite the correction in the bond mkt. Had it not been for the financials which were understandably reacting to rising yields in the bond mkt, we could have seen the stock mkt close up sharply, largely due to the tech sector. I also noted a continuing pattern in which money is flowing into stocks on any pullback. While my office has virtually no short positions, the market total shorts report still remains very high after last month's slight decline. I suspect the "buy on dips" is being fueled by both fresh money on long positions as well as some continued short covering. For future inflationary indicators, I expect the Feds to continue to watch labor costs and work week expansion, however I expect less emphasis on overall employment, job gains, or overall percentage unemployment. Consumer spending will continue to be important, right now it is very benign. Inventory expansion/contraction will also likely gain in importance as they attempt to guage how much of the strength in NAPM type reports simply reflects increasing inventory (remember this has been running at very low levels for a number of months), increased productivity and increased efficiency. The Feds will also likely be watching the Prices Paid (which was up sharply) and the Prices Received components over the next several months to see if this latest sharp increase is continuing and whether it is being passed along in future Prices Received reports. Cost of medical care so far hasn't shown sig inflationary signals, and this item seems to have diminished in importance, at least it isn't being talked about much. Corporate profits are still growing strongly, which suggests they can continue to absorb some of the increase in Prices Paid, at least for a while. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be intrepreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - ---------- > From: Craig Griffin > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mkt Comments, Economics Update > Date: Friday, August 01, 1997 8:55 AM > > Are we in heaven? Amazing. Al this and now a "balanced budget accord" and > big ole' capital gains tax cut! Well, wonder what's holding back the Dow. > > Seriously, seems like the budget bill signing might be a good time for the > beginning of a shakeout ("buy the rumour, sell on the news"). Let's keep ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 2 Aug 1997 08:00:08 -0600 From: jeff@scrooge.csd.sdl.usu.edu (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Sending large files to the canslim group Everyone, >From time to time, you may wish to share large files with our group (i.e. gif, jpeg, spreadsheets, etc). Our list is configured to reject large postings (even if they are properly encoded) since the sheer volume has caused problems in the past. As an alternative, we have provided an anonymous ftp site. To provide your file to the group, please follow these instructions: 1. Send your file to: "ftp://chaos.csd.sdl.usu.edu/pub/incoming/". See ftp instructions below. 2. Send mail to me directly at "jeff.salisbury@sdl.usu.edu" telling me the name of the file that you uploaded. I will move the file from the incoming directory, to the canslim directory where people will be able to download your file. 3. After I notify you that the file has been moved to the canslim directory, you should send an email to the canslim group describing your file, and its URL (i.e. ftp://chaos.csd.sdl.usu.edu/pub/canslim/GreatBoom.gif). Although this may seem unwieldy at first, it really isn't too bad and it solves more problems than it creates. You should note that I do not monitor my email on the weekends as closely as during the week. Therefore, steps 2-3 may take longer over a weekend. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury =========================================================================== FTP Instructions: 1. Using Netscape, go to the URL: "ftp://chaos.csd.sdl.usu.edu/pub/incoming/". 2. On the Netscape "File" menu, select "Upload File..." This will open a file selection widget on your hard-drive. Select the file you wish to upload and hit the "Ok" button. At this point, your file will be uploaded. 3. Eventhough your file has been uploaded, you will not be able to see the file in your netscape browser. The reason for this is that the "incoming" directory is set to write-only for security reasons. ------------------------------ End of canslim Digest V1 #257 ***************************** To subscribe to canslim Digest, send the command: subscribe canslim-digest in the body of a message to "majordomo@xmission.com". If you want to subscribe something other than the account the mail is coming from, such as a local redistribution list, then append that address to the "subscribe" command; for example, to subscribe "local-canslim": subscribe canslim-digest local-canslim@your.domain.net A non-digest (direct mail) version of this list is also available; to subscribe to that instead, replace all instances of "canslim-digest" in the commands above with "canslim". Back issues are available for anonymous FTP from ftp.xmission.com, in pub/lists/canslim/archive. These are organized by date.