From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1029 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, October 19 2000 Volume 02 : Number 1029 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Getting close to bottom? Put/Call ratio Re: [CANSLIM] Getting close to bottom? Put/Call ratio [CANSLIM] CANSLIM evolving with time?? Re: [CANSLIM] Getting close to bottom? Put/Call ratio Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM evolving with time?? Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM evolving with time?? Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM evolving with time?? [CANSLIM] Day one? Re: [CANSLIM] Getting close to bottom? Put/Call ratio Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM evolving with time?? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 18 Oct 2000 21:28:11 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Getting close to bottom? Put/Call ratio I think the number is 4-10, where day 1 is the first day the market moved up from the low (so it could be the same day as the low if the market reversed strongly near the close). At 04:53 PM 10/18/00 -0700, you wrote: >You watch during the 3-10 (or is it 4-10? I can never remember) trading >days following the day the intraday low was made to mark a bottom. The >NAZ's intraday low was today, so Monday or Tuesday is the first day a f/t >could take place. The DJIA put in a fresh intraday low today also. > >On 04:42 PM 10/18/00, Eric Shen Said: > >>I thought that the follow-through was the 4th trading session after >>the initial rise. I haven't seen a rise the 4th trading day after >>a "dead-cat bounce" day. > > >Tim Fisher >Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > >Tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW: http://OreRockOn.com >See naked fish and rocks! > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 18 Oct 2000 22:57:12 -0500 From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Getting close to bottom? Put/Call ratio From HTMMIS, page 56: "At stock market lows, the investor is safer to wait for a second confirmation of the turn before buying heavily. The bottom day in the Dow Jones or the first strong day up after a major decline is usually the first indication of a possible bottom. A good follow through,.........will usually be on the fourth, fifth, sixth, or seventh day of the attempted rally. This is your second confirmation and main buy signal. Follow-throughs after the tenth day indicate weakness." "Occasionally, you may have a follow-through as early as the third day if the first, second, and third day are all very powerful......A follow- through day should give the feeling of an explosive rally that is strong, decisive, and conclusive." Best wishes, Walt - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 18 Oct 2000 23:27:30 -0500 From: Kent Norman Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM evolving with time?? Your opinions please. Do you think that as investors grow more experienced there would be less of the classic major league panic? I seem to remember reading months ago that the individual investors were holding steady during turbulent times and the institutions were the ones scampering to and fro reeking havoc like a bunch of amateurs. All of that to say this: do you think CANSLIM will be evolving with time? Perhaps some of the aspects, may have become less reliable as more and more individuals alter the mix? Your thoughts appreciated. Kent Norman - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 18 Oct 2000 23:39:56 -0500 From: Kent Norman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Getting close to bottom? Put/Call ratio Hello Earl Not to challenge you - just to play Devil's Advocate... Do you think the sudden jumps we have seen this year may continue and not allow a leisurely entry into a newly rising market? I wonder if they won't suddenly jump beyond the 10% or so above pivot and become too extended before we can take action. Regards Kent - ------ Earl Setser wrote: > In other words, I'm not interested in > grabbing the first N stocks I see, but I prefer to "tip-toe" back into the > market. Maybe buy one or two positions the first day, watch for other > stocks moving, pick up another position or two, wait a couple of days, get > REAL picky on which B/Os I want, etc. I think this gives you less exposure > to failed days, and it's nice to get a little cusion on the first few > positions before rolling the dice with more cash. - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 19 Oct 2000 08:58:46 -0700 From: Eric Shen Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM evolving with time?? I wonder if they are more experienced or the latest drops haven't really affected them. I'm heavily invested in tech so I see the drops. However, I also have non-tech and they've held on relatively well. Perhaps they haven't seen enough losses to panic. Interesting concern about CANSLIM evolving. If more people know about CANSLIM, would it make it less effective? It's like the Dow Dogs. With all the focus on Dow Dog Stocks, are the returns of a portfolio less than before it was widely publicized? Or is it self-fullfilling prophecy? The "October" effect seems so. Lots of folks say that Oct. is a bad month for stocks. So when we hit Oct., people move to cash, further causing Oct. to be bad. Kent Norman wrote: > > Your opinions please. > > Do you think that as investors grow more experienced there would be less > of the classic major league panic? I seem to remember reading months ago > that the individual investors were holding steady during turbulent times > and the institutions were the ones scampering to and fro reeking havoc > like a bunch of amateurs. > > All of that to say this: do you think CANSLIM will be evolving with > time? Perhaps some of the aspects, may have become less reliable as > more and more individuals alter the mix? > > Your thoughts appreciated. > Kent Norman > > - - -- Eric Shen MS LOC3-8 Intel Corporation email: eshen@level1.com 9750 Goethe Road Tel: (916) 855 5177 x4497 Sacramento, CA 95827 - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 19 Oct 2000 12:16:39 -0400 From: asosis@ca.ibm.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM evolving with time?? I have read recently that North American investors are desensitized to the selloffs: "they've been there, have done it" kind of an attitude. Plus "in the long term it will be ok" brainwashing is taking its hold. Anna Eric Shen on 10/19/2000 11:58:46 AM Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com cc: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM evolving with time?? I wonder if they are more experienced or the latest drops haven't really affected them. I'm heavily invested in tech so I see the drops. However, I also have non-tech and they've held on relatively well. Perhaps they haven't seen enough losses to panic. Interesting concern about CANSLIM evolving. If more people know about CANSLIM, would it make it less effective? It's like the Dow Dogs. With all the focus on Dow Dog Stocks, are the returns of a portfolio less than before it was widely publicized? Or is it self-fullfilling prophecy? The "October" effect seems so. Lots of folks say that Oct. is a bad month for stocks. So when we hit Oct., people move to cash, further causing Oct. to be bad. Kent Norman wrote: > > Your opinions please. > > Do you think that as investors grow more experienced there would be less > of the classic major league panic? I seem to remember reading months ago > that the individual investors were holding steady during turbulent times > and the institutions were the ones scampering to and fro reeking havoc > like a bunch of amateurs. > > All of that to say this: do you think CANSLIM will be evolving with > time? Perhaps some of the aspects, may have become less reliable as > more and more individuals alter the mix? > > Your thoughts appreciated. > Kent Norman > > - - -- Eric Shen MS LOC3-8 Intel Corporation email: eshen@level1.com 9750 Goethe Road Tel: (916) 855 5177 x4497 Sacramento, CA 95827 - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 19 Oct 2000 10:01:57 -0700 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM evolving with time?? I find it funny time and time again that the "talking heads" refer to changes in the market caused by investors. They should use the term "institutional traders" or "fund managers" as these are the real market movers. They control 70% of the market. Some even like to blame it on the daytraders. Heck the fund managers are the real daytraders. Luckily for us, being canslimers we can just sit it out. : ) - -Bill - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Thursday, October 19, 2000 9:16 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM evolving with time?? > > I have read recently that North American investors are desensitized to the > selloffs: "they've been there, have done it" kind of an attitude. > Plus "in the long term it will be ok" brainwashing is taking its hold. > > > Anna > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 19 Oct 2000 19:03:21 -0700 From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] Day one? haven't had time to watch the M much. Record up day, eh? - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 19 Oct 2000 21:25:51 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Getting close to bottom? Put/Call ratio I think there will generally be a range of breakout times after a rally starts to get legs. Even if it's a strong first day or two, many of the more volatile stocks will have fallen more also. I think right now I see more solid stocks that have a long way to go rather than stocks right at the pivot. I do think things change somewhat over time, but I'm hopeful that there will be good candidates over a range of time. I also feel it's a better choice to wade in slowly, since many FT days fail. In fact, I would guess that the higher volatility would make the FT day a less consistent indicator if anything. Just my opinion, of course. At 11:39 PM 10/18/00 -0500, you wrote: >Hello Earl > >Not to challenge you - just to play Devil's Advocate... > >Do you think the sudden jumps we have seen this year may continue and >not allow a leisurely entry into a newly rising market? I wonder if they >won't suddenly jump beyond the 10% or so above pivot and become too >extended before we can take action. > >Regards >Kent > >------ > >Earl Setser wrote: >> > In other words, I'm not interested in >> grabbing the first N stocks I see, but I prefer to "tip-toe" back into the >> market. Maybe buy one or two positions the first day, watch for other >> stocks moving, pick up another position or two, wait a couple of days, get >> REAL picky on which B/Os I want, etc. I think this gives you less exposure >> to failed days, and it's nice to get a little cusion on the first few >> positions before rolling the dice with more cash. > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 19 Oct 2000 21:30:06 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM evolving with time?? And does this mean November will always be good as the cash returns? A friend noted the other day that something like 90% of the market gains over history have occurred in the November to March or April timeframe. Interesting fact, eh? Self-fulfilling.. maybe, if the funds believe then definitely maybe!! At 08:58 AM 10/19/00 -0700, you wrote: > >I wonder if they are more experienced or the latest drops haven't really >affected them. I'm heavily invested in tech so I see the drops. >However, >I also have non-tech and they've held on relatively well. Perhaps they >haven't seen enough losses to panic. > >Interesting concern about CANSLIM evolving. If more people know about >CANSLIM, would it make it less effective? It's like the Dow Dogs. >With >all the focus on Dow Dog Stocks, are the returns of a portfolio less >than >before it was widely publicized? Or is it self-fullfilling prophecy? >The "October" effect seems so. Lots of folks say that Oct. is a bad >month >for stocks. So when we hit Oct., people move to cash, further causing >Oct. to be bad. > > > >Kent Norman wrote: >> >> Your opinions please. >> >> Do you think that as investors grow more experienced there would be less >> of the classic major league panic? I seem to remember reading months ago >> that the individual investors were holding steady during turbulent times >> and the institutions were the ones scampering to and fro reeking havoc >> like a bunch of amateurs. >> >> All of that to say this: do you think CANSLIM will be evolving with >> time? Perhaps some of the aspects, may have become less reliable as >> more and more individuals alter the mix? >> >> Your thoughts appreciated. >> Kent Norman >> >> - > >-- >Eric Shen MS LOC3-8 Intel Corporation >email: eshen@level1.com 9750 Goethe Road >Tel: (916) 855 5177 x4497 Sacramento, CA 95827 > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1029 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.