From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1067 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, December 15 2000 Volume 02 : Number 1067 In this issue: [CANSLIM] King Bush [CANSLIM] LLUR??? Re: [CANSLIM] LLUR??? [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription Re: [CANSLIM] LLUR??? Re: [CANSLIM] Quite... umm, Quiet? [CANSLIM] Rally fizzling? [CANSLIM] There goes another rally - busted!!! Re: [CANSLIM] LLUR??? [CANSLIM] leading groups Re: [CANSLIM] There goes another rally - busted!!! Re: [CANSLIM] There goes another rally - busted!!! Re: [CANSLIM] Rally fizzling? Re: [CANSLIM] Rally fizzling? Re: [CANSLIM] There goes another rally - busted!!! [CANSLIM] Vanguard Econ. week in review Re: [CANSLIM] Rally fizzling? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 14 Dec 2000 23:53:46 -0800 From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] King Bush "This I shall give thee, know the time draweth nigh,when you shall hear and see the king of this country coming forth. For he shall be as like the chaff of wheat in the wind, swaying towards the seduction of the whore which serveth oil for wine. This is wisdom, be watchful of the Holy city and the land that GOD has given. For Jacob shall inherit a new king before the young lions suckle the wine of the whore. And with the sealing of this Scripture, so shall be the elect of GOD. VII angel Archangel Jophiel" - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2000 09:25:06 -0500 From: "Steven Limbert" Subject: [CANSLIM] LLUR??? What does LLUR mean????? >From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com >Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1066 >Date: Thu, 14 Dec 2000 21:14:05 -0700 > >canslim-digest Thursday, December 14 2000 Volume 02 : Number 1066 > > > >In this issue: > > [CANSLIM] Bush vs Gore > Re: [CANSLIM] Leaders List (a little bigger?) > [CANSLIM] Quite... > >---------------------------------------------------------------------- > >Date: Wed, 13 Dec 2000 02:14:06 -0500 >From: "Tom Worley" >Subject: [CANSLIM] Bush vs Gore > >As best as I can understand the news and decisions coming out of >the US Supreme Court tonight, Bush wins and Gore loses. I would >expect a concession speech by Gore as early as Wednesday. > >Nasdaq futures trading in Asia are indicating limit up, so likely >will be an up day for the open at least. Europe will open in a >few hours and give a better clue to the US markets. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >ICQ # 5568838 > > > > > >- - > >------------------------------ > >Date: 13 Dec 2000 06:19:45 -0800 >From: "Tim Fisher" >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Leaders List (a little bigger?) > >My thoughts exactly. I have had up to 10 LLURs the past 2 months. Still >hold LEN, had one (NAT) breakdown on me. Right now I own ABK AFL CVTY FII >KP LEN MDC PHM RYL SPF TGH which are all LLUR. > >At 05:28 AM 12/13/00 +0000, you wrote: > >Yes, I thought your posting from the other day was a bit thin... > > > >Of the stocks you list here, I have been watching ACL, LEN and LUV > >closely. Wish I'd bought LEN at 30. Home builders are not glamor stocks > >and aren't apt to make you rich overnight, but LLUR beats the blood and > >gore (woops!) I've been seeing. > > > >Dan > > > >PS I'm 100% in $$$. > > > > > >- > >Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists >Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >PFB Information >mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > >- - > >------------------------------ > >Date: Thu, 14 Dec 2000 20:19:31 -0800 >From: "Bill Triffet" >Subject: [CANSLIM] Quite... > >How long has the canslim listserver been around? I've only been with this >group a couple years but have never seen it this quite. > >Well, at least the volume was lower today... > > >- -Bill Triffet > > >- - > >------------------------------ > >End of canslim-digest V2 #1066 >****************************** > > To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to >"majordomo@xmission.com" > with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. > For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send > "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: 15 Dec 2000 06:41:30 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LLUR??? Lower-Left-Upper-Right. It's a term coined (was it really?) by a former member of this list for a chart with that kin of pattern, i.e. a steady, linear rise in price with no long bases or significant breakouts. It's a good type of stock to buy since so many of them are CANSLIM but if you follow WON's chart formations you'd never buy them since they don't ever "do" anything. I buy on retreats to the 50-day or (more often) after a slight pause followed by a mini-B/O. Sometimes it's a real B/O and then the LLUR pattern is broken, but you still wouldn't have bot according to WON since there is no C&H, HTF, base, or anything remotely like his example charts. Many of my small-cap home runs (if not all) have been LLURs that broke out and went exponential before the inevitable 15%+ correction. At 09:25 AM 12/15/00 -0500, you wrote: >What does LLUR mean????? > > >>From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) >>Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >>To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com >>Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1066 >>Date: Thu, 14 Dec 2000 21:14:05 -0700 >> >>canslim-digest Thursday, December 14 2000 Volume 02 : Number 1066 >> >> >> >>In this issue: >> >> [CANSLIM] Bush vs Gore >> Re: [CANSLIM] Leaders List (a little bigger?) >> [CANSLIM] Quite... >> >>---------------------------------------------------------------------- >> >>Date: Wed, 13 Dec 2000 02:14:06 -0500 >>From: "Tom Worley" >>Subject: [CANSLIM] Bush vs Gore >> >>As best as I can understand the news and decisions coming out of >>the US Supreme Court tonight, Bush wins and Gore loses. I would >>expect a concession speech by Gore as early as Wednesday. >> >>Nasdaq futures trading in Asia are indicating limit up, so likely >>will be an up day for the open at least. Europe will open in a >>few hours and give a better clue to the US markets. >> >>Tom Worley >>stkguru@netside.net >>ICQ # 5568838 >> >> >> >> >> >>- - >> >>------------------------------ >> >>Date: 13 Dec 2000 06:19:45 -0800 >>From: "Tim Fisher" >>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Leaders List (a little bigger?) >> >>My thoughts exactly. I have had up to 10 LLURs the past 2 months. Still >>hold LEN, had one (NAT) breakdown on me. Right now I own ABK AFL CVTY FII >>KP LEN MDC PHM RYL SPF TGH which are all LLUR. >> >>At 05:28 AM 12/13/00 +0000, you wrote: >> >Yes, I thought your posting from the other day was a bit thin... >> > >> >Of the stocks you list here, I have been watching ACL, LEN and LUV >> >closely. Wish I'd bought LEN at 30. Home builders are not glamor stocks >> >and aren't apt to make you rich overnight, but LLUR beats the blood and >> >gore (woops!) I've been seeing. >> > >> >Dan >> > >> >PS I'm 100% in $$$. >> > >> > >> >- >> >>Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists >>Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >>PFB Information >>mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com >>WWW http://OreRockOn.com >> >> >>- - >> >>------------------------------ >> >>Date: Thu, 14 Dec 2000 20:19:31 -0800 >>From: "Bill Triffet" >>Subject: [CANSLIM] Quite... >> >>How long has the canslim listserver been around? I've only been with this >>group a couple years but have never seen it this quite. >> >>Well, at least the volume was lower today... >> >> >>- -Bill Triffet >> >> >>- - >> >>------------------------------ >> >>End of canslim-digest V2 #1066 >>****************************** >> >> To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" >> with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. >> For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send >> "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. > >_________________________________________________________________ >Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com > > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2000 08:00:01 -0700 From: owner-canslim@xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription This is a twice monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are three remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group. 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. Or, 3) You can setup customized filters on your own mail client to sort the incoming canslim messages to its own folder. If you wish to modify your canslim subscription, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@lists.xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2000 10:44:54 -0800 From: Bill Weliky Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LLUR??? Tim, thanks for the LLUR explanation. "broke out and went exponential before the inevitable 15%+ correction" Why will it correct 15%? TIA Bill - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tim Fisher" To: Sent: Friday, December 15, 2000 6:41 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LLUR??? > Lower-Left-Upper-Right. It's a term coined (was it really?) by a former > member of this list for a chart with that kin of pattern, i.e. a steady, > linear rise in price with no long bases or significant breakouts. It's a > good type of stock to buy since so many of them are CANSLIM but if you > follow WON's chart formations you'd never buy them since they don't ever > "do" anything. I buy on retreats to the 50-day or (more often) after a > slight pause followed by a mini-B/O. Sometimes it's a real B/O and then the > LLUR pattern is broken, but you still wouldn't have bot according to WON > since there is no C&H, HTF, base, or anything remotely like his example > charts. Many of my small-cap home runs (if not all) have been LLURs that > broke out and went exponential before the inevitable 15%+ correction. > > At 09:25 AM 12/15/00 -0500, you wrote: > >What does LLUR mean????? > > > > > >>From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) > >>Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >>To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com > >>Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1066 > >>Date: Thu, 14 Dec 2000 21:14:05 -0700 > >> > >>canslim-digest Thursday, December 14 2000 Volume 02 : Number 1066 > >> > >> > >> > >>In this issue: > >> > >> [CANSLIM] Bush vs Gore > >> Re: [CANSLIM] Leaders List (a little bigger?) > >> [CANSLIM] Quite... > >> > >>---------------------------------------------------------------------- > >> > >>Date: Wed, 13 Dec 2000 02:14:06 -0500 > >>From: "Tom Worley" > >>Subject: [CANSLIM] Bush vs Gore > >> > >>As best as I can understand the news and decisions coming out of > >>the US Supreme Court tonight, Bush wins and Gore loses. I would > >>expect a concession speech by Gore as early as Wednesday. > >> > >>Nasdaq futures trading in Asia are indicating limit up, so likely > >>will be an up day for the open at least. Europe will open in a > >>few hours and give a better clue to the US markets. > >> > >>Tom Worley > >>stkguru@netside.net > >>ICQ # 5568838 > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >>- - > >> > >>------------------------------ > >> > >>Date: 13 Dec 2000 06:19:45 -0800 > >>From: "Tim Fisher" > >>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Leaders List (a little bigger?) > >> > >>My thoughts exactly. I have had up to 10 LLURs the past 2 months. Still > >>hold LEN, had one (NAT) breakdown on me. Right now I own ABK AFL CVTY FII > >>KP LEN MDC PHM RYL SPF TGH which are all LLUR. > >> > >>At 05:28 AM 12/13/00 +0000, you wrote: > >> >Yes, I thought your posting from the other day was a bit thin... > >> > > >> >Of the stocks you list here, I have been watching ACL, LEN and LUV > >> >closely. Wish I'd bought LEN at 30. Home builders are not glamor stocks > >> >and aren't apt to make you rich overnight, but LLUR beats the blood and > >> >gore (woops!) I've been seeing. > >> > > >> >Dan > >> > > >> >PS I'm 100% in $$$. > >> > > >> > > >> >- > >> > >>Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > >>Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > >>PFB Information > >>mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > >>WWW http://OreRockOn.com > >> > >> > >>- - > >> > >>------------------------------ > >> > >>Date: Thu, 14 Dec 2000 20:19:31 -0800 > >>From: "Bill Triffet" > >>Subject: [CANSLIM] Quite... > >> > >>How long has the canslim listserver been around? I've only been with this > >>group a couple years but have never seen it this quite. > >> > >>Well, at least the volume was lower today... > >> > >> > >>- -Bill Triffet > >> > >> > >>- - > >> > >>------------------------------ > >> > >>End of canslim-digest V2 #1066 > >>****************************** > >> > >> To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" > >> with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. > >> For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send > >> "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. > > > >_________________________________________________________________ > >Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com > > > > > >- > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > PFB Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2000 19:02:17 +0000 (GMT) From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Quite... umm, Quiet? On Thu, 14 Dec 2000 20:19:31 -0800, you wrote: :How long has the canslim listserver been around? I've only been with = this :group a couple years but have never seen it this quite. : :Well, at least the volume was lower today... : : :-Bill Triffet : That would suggest that it's not the time to load up on longs, I'd think... - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2000 19:10:35 +0000 (GMT) From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: [CANSLIM] Rally fizzling? Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it's my impression that we have had several "confirmed" rallies this year (according to WON's criteria) that have failed. WON maintains that confirmed rallies succeed 80% of the time, so that would suggest that market conditions this year are somehow different than "normal" and very significantly. Can someone speak to this?=20 According to IBD's Big Picture today, the Nasdaq rally is still in effect. However, the action I've been seeing does not inspire confidence in me to lay out positions. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2000 11:13:56 -0800 From: Harvey Brion Subject: [CANSLIM] There goes another rally - busted!!! Nasdaq rally of 1 Dec busted today. No big surprise the way the market has behaved the last couple of days. No Bush rally, too many negative warnings, etc. With two hours to go, don't know if the day will end with just a test of the 30 Nov low (2523) or if we'll see a new low. Volume is up but not near enough fear for capitulation, unfortunately. I'm afraid we're going lower. Anyone else? - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2000 11:32:43 -0800 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LLUR??? If canslim stocks never corrected 15%, I'd be in all I have ever bot still. Since Ihave sold all I have ever bot except the past few months' purchases, they have corrected 15%. On 10:44 AM 12/15/00, Bill Weliky Said: >Tim, thanks for the LLUR explanation. "broke out and went exponential before >the inevitable 15%+ correction" Why will it correct 15%? > >TIA > >Bill >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Tim Fisher" >To: >Sent: Friday, December 15, 2000 6:41 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LLUR??? > > > > Lower-Left-Upper-Right. It's a term coined (was it really?) by a former > > member of this list for a chart with that kin of pattern, i.e. a steady, > > linear rise in price with no long bases or significant breakouts. It's a > > good type of stock to buy since so many of them are CANSLIM but if you > > follow WON's chart formations you'd never buy them since they don't ever > > "do" anything. I buy on retreats to the 50-day or (more often) after a > > slight pause followed by a mini-B/O. Sometimes it's a real B/O and then >the > > LLUR pattern is broken, but you still wouldn't have bot according to WON > > since there is no C&H, HTF, base, or anything remotely like his example > > charts. Many of my small-cap home runs (if not all) have been LLURs that > > broke out and went exponential before the inevitable 15%+ correction. > > > > At 09:25 AM 12/15/00 -0500, you wrote: > > >What does LLUR mean????? > > > > > > > > >>From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) > > >>Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > >>To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com > > >>Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1066 > > >>Date: Thu, 14 Dec 2000 21:14:05 -0700 > > >> > > >>canslim-digest Thursday, December 14 2000 Volume 02 : Number >1066 > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >>In this issue: > > >> > > >> [CANSLIM] Bush vs Gore > > >> Re: [CANSLIM] Leaders List (a little bigger?) > > >> [CANSLIM] Quite... > > >> > > >>---------------------------------------------------------------------- > > >> > > >>Date: Wed, 13 Dec 2000 02:14:06 -0500 > > >>From: "Tom Worley" > > >>Subject: [CANSLIM] Bush vs Gore > > >> > > >>As best as I can understand the news and decisions coming out of > > >>the US Supreme Court tonight, Bush wins and Gore loses. I would > > >>expect a concession speech by Gore as early as Wednesday. > > >> > > >>Nasdaq futures trading in Asia are indicating limit up, so likely > > >>will be an up day for the open at least. Europe will open in a > > >>few hours and give a better clue to the US markets. > > >> > > >>Tom Worley > > >>stkguru@netside.net > > >>ICQ # 5568838 > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >>- - > > >> > > >>------------------------------ > > >> > > >>Date: 13 Dec 2000 06:19:45 -0800 > > >>From: "Tim Fisher" > > >>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Leaders List (a little bigger?) > > >> > > >>My thoughts exactly. I have had up to 10 LLURs the past 2 months. Still > > >>hold LEN, had one (NAT) breakdown on me. Right now I own ABK AFL CVTY >FII > > >>KP LEN MDC PHM RYL SPF TGH which are all LLUR. > > >> > > >>At 05:28 AM 12/13/00 +0000, you wrote: > > >> >Yes, I thought your posting from the other day was a bit thin... > > >> > > > >> >Of the stocks you list here, I have been watching ACL, LEN and LUV > > >> >closely. Wish I'd bought LEN at 30. Home builders are not glamor >stocks > > >> >and aren't apt to make you rich overnight, but LLUR beats the blood >and > > >> >gore (woops!) I've been seeing. > > >> > > > >> >Dan > > >> > > > >> >PS I'm 100% in $$$. > > >> > > > >> > > > >> >- > > >> > > >>Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > > >>Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > > >>PFB Information > > >>mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > > >>WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > >> > > >> > > >>- - > > >> > > >>------------------------------ > > >> > > >>Date: Thu, 14 Dec 2000 20:19:31 -0800 > > >>From: "Bill Triffet" > > >>Subject: [CANSLIM] Quite... > > >> > > >>How long has the canslim listserver been around? I've only been with >this > > >>group a couple years but have never seen it this quite. > > >> > > >>Well, at least the volume was lower today... > > >> > > >> > > >>- -Bill Triffet > > >> > > >> > > >>- - > > >> > > >>------------------------------ > > >> > > >>End of canslim-digest V2 #1066 > > >>****************************** > > >> > > >> To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to >"majordomo@xmission.com" > > >> with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. > > >> For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send > > >> "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message. > > > > > >_________________________________________________________________ > > >Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com > > > > > > > > >- > > > > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists > > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > > PFB Information > > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > > > > - > > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2000 15:01:06 -0600 From: Kent Norman Subject: [CANSLIM] leading groups OK, now that December is pretty much over. Some say the leaders that emerge in December lead the new year. So what does the group think are the top 5 groups and the top 3 stocks of each group? Thanks Kent - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2000 23:22:46 +0000 (GMT) From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] There goes another rally - busted!!! On Fri, 15 Dec 2000 11:13:56 -0800, you wrote: :Nasdaq rally of 1 Dec busted today. No big surprise the way the market :has behaved the last couple of days. No Bush rally, too many negative :warnings, etc. With two hours to go, don't know if the day will end :with just a test of the 30 Nov low (2523) or if we'll see a new low. :Volume is up but not near enough fear for capitulation, unfortunately. :I'm afraid we're going lower. Anyone else? It seems to me that we've seen a lot of failed rallies this year, maybe 4 of them. WON said that confirmed rallies succeed 80% of the time. That means we are really bucking the odds this year. What's up with this? Is CANSLIM kaput? Temporarily not working?=20 - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2000 09:01:03 -0500 From: Dan Forant Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] There goes another rally - busted!!! All good news is pre-factored in the market before the news actually hits. The only move that will save this market is a rate cut. I've been doing well with a program from DaytradeSignals for now. Canslim is going to be dormant for awhile. Dan At 11:13 AM 12/15/00 -0800, you wrote: >Nasdaq rally of 1 Dec busted today. No big surprise the way the market >has behaved the last couple of days. No Bush rally, too many negative >warnings, etc. With two hours to go, don't know if the day will end >with just a test of the 30 Nov low (2523) or if we'll see a new low. >Volume is up but not near enough fear for capitulation, unfortunately. >I'm afraid we're going lower. Anyone else? > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2000 19:15:58 -0700 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rally fizzling? Here is what WON says in the 26 week series: "About 20% of the time they give a false signal, which is fairly easy to recognize after a few days, because the market will promptly and noticeably fail. This will probably happen a little more frequently as this ''1% concept'' becomes more well known. The reason? A huge institutional investor knowing this can run up a few of the Dow stocks or a few big high-tech leaders in the Nasdaq and create a false impression of a valid follow-through, especially if the market moves up on some seemingly good news that day. However, a true follow-through will also show strong positive action on good volume either the day after the follow-through or several days later." I don't believe we good the confirmation on this last rally. I've also noted that IBD had repeated over and over that you need "Quality stocks breaking out of well-formed bases" as your most important confirmation. In this latest FT day, I did a pretty comprehensive data update and selected 150 stocks to watch. Of these, I found 15 or 20 stocks that looked ready to move up with a strong market. Of these, I've seen one or two have successful breakouts, a couple of weak, low volume breakouts, and several break and fail moves. Overall, it seems the odds of success right now are pretty small, so I've stayed on the sidelines. At 07:10 PM 12/15/00 +0000, you wrote: >Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it's my impression that we have had >several "confirmed" rallies this year (according to WON's criteria) that >have failed. WON maintains that confirmed rallies succeed 80% of the >time, so that would suggest that market conditions this year are somehow >different than "normal" and very significantly. Can someone speak to >this? > >According to IBD's Big Picture today, the Nasdaq rally is still in >effect. However, the action I've been seeing does not inspire confidence >in me to lay out positions. > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 16 Dec 2000 03:32:12 +0000 (GMT) From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rally fizzling? On Fri, 15 Dec 2000 19:15:58 -0700, you wrote: :Here is what WON says in the 26 week series: "About 20% of the time = they :give a false signal, which is fairly easy to recognize after a few days, :because the market will promptly and noticeably fail. This will = probably :happen a little more frequently as this ''1% concept'' becomes more well :known. The reason? A huge institutional investor knowing this can run = up a :few of the Dow stocks or a few big high-tech leaders in the Nasdaq and :create a false impression of a valid follow-through, especially if the :market moves up on some seemingly good news that day. However, a true :follow-through will also show strong positive action on good volume = either :the day after the follow-through or several days later." : :I don't believe we good the confirmation on this last rally. I've also :noted that IBD had repeated over and over that you need "Quality stocks :breaking out of well-formed bases" as your most important confirmation. = In :this latest FT day, I did a pretty comprehensive data update and = selected :150 stocks to watch. Of these, I found 15 or 20 stocks that looked = ready :to move up with a strong market. Of these, I've seen one or two have :successful breakouts, a couple of weak, low volume breakouts, and = several :break and fail moves. Overall, it seems the odds of success right now = are :pretty small, so I've stayed on the sidelines. I too have remained on the sidelines. IBD has been pointing out that well formed bases and leaders of leading groups displaying them and setting up to break into new ground has not been in evidence thus far. OK, so what do you buy? However, my point is that this is a pretty subjective kind of thing, finding leading groups, leaders and good bases. What is objective and 80% foolproof, according to WON, is the confirmation of a rally, and these confirmed rallies have been failing pretty regularly lately. Earlier this week IBD declared that the Nasdaq confirmed its rally. The Dow had confirmed its rally several days earlier. Both have failed, I guess, by virtue of what we saw today, or nearly so. What kind of bothers me is that all this is happening with a backdrop of news, however WON's rally and confirmation determination formulae do not take such subjective intangibles into account. That's great as long as it works. In fact that's fantastic if it works. It works 80% of the time, I'm told. Apparently, it's not working now. Well, maybe the current rally is still in effect. I don't believe we've undercut the lows previous to the current rally, so perhaps it has not failed. In any case, we've nearly undercut those lows, and the difference is little more than technical, especially in light of the ferocious selling today. Today had the largest NYSE volume of all time. Anyone? - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2000 21:41:53 -0600 From: Kent Norman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] There goes another rally - busted!!! Dan Perhaps a sample size of 4 is not significant? Probably over many years you will see the 80%? Kent Dan Musicant wrote: > > On Fri, 15 Dec 2000 11:13:56 -0800, you wrote: > > :Nasdaq rally of 1 Dec busted today. No big surprise the way the market > :has behaved the last couple of days. No Bush rally, too many negative > :warnings, etc. With two hours to go, don't know if the day will end > :with just a test of the 30 Nov low (2523) or if we'll see a new low. > :Volume is up but not near enough fear for capitulation, unfortunately. > :I'm afraid we're going lower. Anyone else? > > It seems to me that we've seen a lot of failed rallies this year, maybe > 4 of them. WON said that confirmed rallies succeed 80% of the time. That > means we are really bucking the odds this year. What's up with this? Is > CANSLIM kaput? Temporarily not working? > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2000 22:53:25 -0800 From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] Vanguard Econ. week in review Economic Week in Review: December 11-15, 2000 With uncertainty about the presidential election out of the way, investors had more time to concentrate on other questions, such as economic growth, interest rates, and corporate profits. The week's economic reports included good news on inflation, but some not-so-good news for retailers and the manufacturing sector. In the financial markets, the S&P 500 Index fell 4.2% during the week to 1,312, and the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note declined 15 basis points to 5.19% (as of 4:30 p.m. Friday). Inflation was nearly a no-show during November. Consumer prices rose 0.2%, while prices for wholesale goods inched up 0.1%. The Consumer Price Index's core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% for the month. Inflation, or the lack thereof, will likely be a hot topic at the Federal Reserve Board's Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates where they are. In addition, some Fed watchers expect the board to switch to a "neutral" stance and drop its stated bias toward raising interest rates in the future. Retail sales fell 0.4% in November, largely because of a sharp drop in auto sales. The monthly decline was read as yet another sign that the U.S. economy is coming in for a soft landing. Analysts are expressing some concern about a drop-off in consumer spending, which would dent economic growth. So far, the holiday shopping season has been weak, experts say. Industrial production, the total output of U.S. factories, utilities, and mines, slipped 0.2% in November, the Federal Reserve announced on Friday. Most analysts had expected a slight increase. Manufacturing output declined, utilities registered a weather-related surge in demand, and mines produced at a slightly higher rate. In a separate report, the Census Bureau said business inventories rose 0.6% in October as sales dropped. Economic observers keep a close eye on inventory growth because a sustained increase in inventories can result in cutbacks in production. During the week ahead, economic observers will focus hardest on Tuesday's Fed meeting. Among the reports due are international trade (Tuesday), housing starts (Wednesday), gross domestic product (Thursday), and durable goods and personal income (Friday). Summary of Major Economic Reports: December 11-15, 2000 - ----------------------------------------------------------------------- |Date Report Actual Expected 10-Year S&P 500 | | Value Value Note Yield Index | |---------------------------------------------------------------------| |December 11 +1 bp +0.8% | |---------------------------------------------------------------------| |December 12 No change -0.7% | |---------------------------------------------------------------------| |December 13 Retail Sales -0.4% +0.1% -10 bp -0.8% | | (November) | |---------------------------------------------------------------------| |December 14 Producer +0.1% +0.2% | | Price Index | | (November) | | | |---------------------------------------------------------------------| | PPI, except 0.0% +0.1% | | food and | | energy (November) | |---------------------------------------------------------------------| | Business +0.6% +0.3% | | Inventories | | (October) | |---------------------------------------------------------------------| | Initial Jobless 320,000 350,000 -3 bp -1.4% | | Claims (12/9) | |---------------------------------------------------------------------| |December 15 Consumer +0.2% +0.2% | | Price Index | | (November) | |---------------------------------------------------------------------| | CPI, except +0.3% +0.2% | | food and | | energy (November) | |---------------------------------------------------------------------| | Industrial -0.2% +0.1% -3 bp -2.1% | | Production | | (November) | |---------------------------------------------------------------------| | Weekly -15 bp -4.2% | | Change | - ----------------------------------------------------------------------- bp = basis points. "Standard & Poor's(r)," "S&P(r)," "S&P 500(r)," "Standard & Poor's 500," and "500" are trademarks of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (c) 2000 Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor - --Jim - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2000 22:20:57 -0700 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Rally fizzling? Dan, IBD is listening!! Check out tomorrow's Investor Corner for some notes on how to survive these failure-prone rallies. You can find it at the website now. At 03:32 AM 12/16/00 +0000, you wrote: >On Fri, 15 Dec 2000 19:15:58 -0700, you wrote: > >:Here is what WON says in the 26 week series: "About 20% of the time they >:give a false signal, which is fairly easy to recognize after a few days, >:because the market will promptly and noticeably fail. This will probably >:happen a little more frequently as this ''1% concept'' becomes more well >:known. The reason? A huge institutional investor knowing this can run up a >:few of the Dow stocks or a few big high-tech leaders in the Nasdaq and >:create a false impression of a valid follow-through, especially if the >:market moves up on some seemingly good news that day. However, a true >:follow-through will also show strong positive action on good volume either >:the day after the follow-through or several days later." >: >:I don't believe we good the confirmation on this last rally. I've also >:noted that IBD had repeated over and over that you need "Quality stocks >:breaking out of well-formed bases" as your most important confirmation. In >:this latest FT day, I did a pretty comprehensive data update and selected >:150 stocks to watch. Of these, I found 15 or 20 stocks that looked ready >:to move up with a strong market. Of these, I've seen one or two have >:successful breakouts, a couple of weak, low volume breakouts, and several >:break and fail moves. Overall, it seems the odds of success right now are >:pretty small, so I've stayed on the sidelines. > >I too have remained on the sidelines. IBD has been pointing out that >well formed bases and leaders of leading groups displaying them and >setting up to break into new ground has not been in evidence thus far. >OK, so what do you buy? However, my point is that this is a pretty >subjective kind of thing, finding leading groups, leaders and good >bases. What is objective and 80% foolproof, according to WON, is the >confirmation of a rally, and these confirmed rallies have been failing >pretty regularly lately. Earlier this week IBD declared that the Nasdaq >confirmed its rally. The Dow had confirmed its rally several days >earlier. Both have failed, I guess, by virtue of what we saw today, or >nearly so. What kind of bothers me is that all this is happening with a >backdrop of news, however WON's rally and confirmation determination >formulae do not take such subjective intangibles into account. That's >great as long as it works. In fact that's fantastic if it works. It >works 80% of the time, I'm told. Apparently, it's not working now. Well, >maybe the current rally is still in effect. I don't believe we've >undercut the lows previous to the current rally, so perhaps it has not >failed. In any case, we've nearly undercut those lows, and the >difference is little more than technical, especially in light of the >ferocious selling today. Today had the largest NYSE volume of all time. >Anyone? > > > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1067 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. 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