From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1201 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Sunday, March 11 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1201 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] From Saturday Los Angeles Times Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo [CANSLIM] ICUI Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 22:59:24 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From Saturday Los Angeles Times gosh, I just love to see this bearish sentiment. Course, it didn't last long, $13.4 billion out for the entire month of February, and $9 billion back in just in the first five days of March. And all of that is just a drop in the bucket compared to the several trillion dollars that didn't move at all. Of course, I wouldn't mind if some part of those billions wanted to move into my account!! But hey, we gotta make headline stories where we can, right?? Who cares about keeping things in proportion. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - ----- Original Message ----- From: Dan To: Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 8:31 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] From Saturday Los Angeles Times http://www.latimes.com/business/20010310/t000021027.html Saturday, March 10, 2001 Massive Outflow From Stock Funds Has Wall Street on Edge Investing: Estimates show that $13.4 billion was yanked from funds in February, the largest monthly outflow ever. By JOSH FRIEDMAN, Times Staff Writer Will investors fleeing stock mutual funds be the next problem to hit Nasdaq? That's what some investment analysts were asking Friday as the Nasdaq composite index marked the one-year anniversary of its all-time closing high with yet another unsettling downward lurch. What has Wall Street on edge is known as "capitulation," a final frenzy of panicked selling that some analysts believe must occur before a bear market can end. With the Nasdaq down 59.3% from its peak on March 10, 2000, it's a growing concern. As one researcher put it, "the final capitulation could be much uglier" if mutual fund investors continue pulling cash out of stock funds as some unofficial estimates suggest they did in February. Volatile aggressive growth and technology funds could be among the hardest hit in such a scenario. "What everybody dreads is a capitulation where it gets circular: The public pulls their money out, forcing fund managers to sell [stocks], which pushes prices down, prompting more people to sell, and so on," said Carl Wittnebert, research director at Santa Rosa-based TrimTabs.com, which estimates mutual fund cash flows. TrimTabs estimates that a net $13.4 billion was yanked from stock funds in February, which would be the largest monthly outflow ever and the first since August 1998, when investors were rattled by the Asian financial crisis. The Investment Company Institute, the industry's main trade group, will release official February figures at the end of this month. But Wittnebert said last month's investor activity signaled only "an intermediate capitulation." "All-time record outflows in dollar terms [in February would] represent a degree of capitulation," he said. "But at 0.3% of total fund assets, it's not a particularly large portion--it's not like people are rushing for the doors. If they do at some point, the final capitulation could be much uglier." Thus far, he said, investors have bided their time whenever the stock market swooned, he said, sniffing for a bottom rather than panicking. "Cash piled up on the sidelines in February," Wittnebert said, but then reversed course during the first five trading days in March, when funds took in a net $9 billion by TrimTabs' estimate. "There's an anxiousness to step back in and purchase [beaten-down stocks]," said John Bollinger, a Manhattan Beach-based strategist who runs the Bollingerbands.com Web site. "Collectively, we just haven't learned our bear market lesson yet." Thus far, fund companies have downplayed the significance of recent redemptions. Janus spokeswoman Jane Ingalls, for example, said the firm's retail funds were hit by outflows in February, continuing the pattern of recent months. But increased buying by institutional investors partly offset the redemptions, she said. "Overall our outflows were modest," she said. "This is not something that has affected portfolio managers in any way. Nobody has had to sell anything to meet redemptions." A Charles Schwab spokesman said the company's stock funds had positive flows during February. Still, in a move Morningstar analyst Christopher Traulsen called "a sign of the times," one fund company known for its ultra-aggressive stock-picking has announced plans to reopen two funds that have been rocked by redemptions amid slumping performance. Van Wagoner Emerging Growth and Van Wagoner Micro-Cap Growth, which were inundated with cash in 1999 amid stunning gains before being closed to new investors, will reopen Monday. Assets of both funds have fallen by about half in the last year through a combination of lower stock prices and net redemptions, Morningstar said. The funds are down 50% and 39%, respectively, year to date. * * * * MARKETS HAMMERED Nasdaq marked the anniversary of its peak with a brutal sell-off. A1 * * * Money In -- and Soon Out? Monthly net cash flows to aggressive growth and sector stock mutual funds have been positive for most of the last two years, but some analysts fear the funds could be hit with significant outflows if performance keeps sagging. Aggressive January: $7.6 billion Sector January: $1.6 billion Source: Investment Company Institute - -- Dan http://www.globexplorer.com/cfviewer/start.cfm http://www.corazon.org/ - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 23:03:52 -0500 From: "Dan Forant" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo I think the Greenspan importance to the economy is over hyped. We may have seen double the growth without the Fed's influence. He got lucky two ways, the economy boomed and a woman found him. Dan F - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Patrick Wahl" To: Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 5:23 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo > Lets see, an unprecedented economic expansion, next to no > inflation, consistently low unemployment rate, and now we may or > may not be in a recession, it is still unclear, and you think > Greenspan should go? You don't cut a guy much slack do you... > > On 11 Mar 01, at 14:54, Dan Forant wrote: > > > Time for Greenspan to go bye bye. He served his purpose well for years, now > > his foresight is failing him. > > > > Dan F > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Dan" > > To: > > Sent: Saturday, March 10, 2001 11:05 PM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo > > > > > > > http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010310/bs/stocks_week_dc_1.html > > > > > > Saturday March 10 10:56 AM ET > > > Is Greenspan Fighting Phantom > > > Recession? > > > > > > By Pierre Belec > > > > > > NEW YORK (Reuters) - Nearly two years ago, Alan Greenspan > > > (news - web sites) began raising interest rates to head off > > > ``inflation'' and now he's chopping away at rates to head off > > > ``recession.'' As it turned out, he was fighting phantom inflation > > > and people are wondering if he is now combating a phantom > > > recession. > > > > > > One expert says the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) > > > chairman has gotten it wrong before and he may be missing > > > the bull's-eye, again. > > > > > > ``First, the Fed was raising rates to fight inflation, which did not > > > exist and now it is lowering rates to fight a recession, which we > > > feel does not exist,'' says Penny Russell, economist at H. C. > > > Wainwright & Co., Economics Inc. > > > > > > While the Fed was raising interest rates to a 10-year high > > > between 1999 and 2000, the Consumer Price Index (news - > > > web sites), which tracks inflation at the retail level, edged up > > > less than 1.5 percentage points and the core rate that excludes > > > volatile food and energy prices went up even less. > > > > > > Greenspan's tight money policy succeeded too well as the > > > economy's growth has nearly stalled. In January this year, the > > > central bank launched a bold move: preemptive rate cuts for > > > fear that the six interest-rate hikes had put the economy at risk > > > of recession. > > > > > > Smart move? No, says Russell, dismissing the Fed's > > > assurance that it can figure out to the nth degree when the > > > economy is facing a killer problem, like a recession. > > > > > > ``What's happening is that we have been through an economic > > > period when things were so extraordinary and when they go > > > back to just ordinary, people seem to be more concerned than > > > they should,'' Russell says. > > > > > > DID GREENSPAN's RATE HIKES CHOKE ECONOMY? > > > > > > ``So it would appear,'' says Russell. ``But the truth is that no > > > one at the Fed -- not even its illustrious chairman -- is capable > > > of managing a large and complex economy like the U.S. or of > > > knowing just when to raise and when to lower interest rates to > > > keep growth within a predesignated range.'' > > > > > > Greenspan, who worried that the stock market was too > > > high-priced in 1999, went on a rate-raising spree instead of > > > allowing Wall Street to correct its excess in its own sweet time. > > > The result of this hands-on money policy: the rapid destruction > > > of $3 trillion in stock market wealth and disillusioned > > > households that caused consumer confidence to plunge. > > > > > > Falling stock prices made a lot of Americans feel poor > > > because many of them looked at the market during the great > > > boom years between 1995 and 1999 as a savings account > > > with tremendously good yields. > > > > > > The market's monster reversal, which sent the Nasdaq down an > > > eye-popping 55 percent from its high during a 12-month > > > period, shook consumer confidence in a New York minute. The > > > reason that the apprehension spread so fast was because > > > more than 50 percent of U.S. households have a stake in the > > > stock market through retirement accounts. > > > > > > Russell favors benign neglect and monetary neutrality rather > > > than the Fed's jockeying, which she says destabilizes both the > > > economy and stock market. > > > > > > ``Now, if the Fed could be persuaded to leave rates alone and > > > let all the ripples die out, there is no reason that the economy > > > could not get back on the fast track,'' she says. > > > ``Noninterference would be even more stimulative than a tax > > > cut.'' > > > > > > Greenspan and his fellow bankers have been known to fumble > > > the ball. They misread the handwriting on the wall in 1990-91 > > > when a recession was slamming the economy and fell asleep > > > at the wheel. > > > > > > So the Fed, which is now racing to keep the economy from > > > tipping into recession, is faced with a dilemma on whether to > > > cut interest rates for a third time this year. It has made two cuts > > > each of 50 basis points in January after boosting rates by 175 > > > basis points from June 1999 to May 2000. > > > > > > Russell says that if interest rates had been left alone in > > > 1999-2000, the economy would have slowed down by itself, > > > ``gently not abruptly and we would have been enjoying higher > > > growth than we are now.'' > > > > > > The betting is that the Fed again will lower by 50 basis points > > > at its March 20 policy-setting meeting. > > > > > > Recession Isn'T In The Cards > > > > > > Even the numbers crunchers say that an old reliable measuring > > > stick -- the nation's money supply, also known as M2 -- is not > > > emitting signals of a recession. M2 has jumped at an annual > > > rate of more than 10 percent over the last three months, which > > > means the Fed is printing more money to pump up the > > > softening economy. > > > > > > ``Since the M2 series began in 1959, the U.S. economy has > > > never entered a recession with the real M2 growth this high,'' > > > says Paul Kasriel, head of economic research at Northern > > > Trust Co. ``The additional 50 basis points of cuts we are > > > forecasting to occur by March 20 would be expected to boost > > > nominal M2 growth still more.'' > > > > > > Russell says the Fed appears to be focusing too much on > > > momentary changes in the economy. > > > > > > ``The central bank is overreacting to what is happening in the > > > economy,'' she says. ``It was astounding how precipitous the > > > Fed was in lowering interest rates in January,'' she says. ``It > > > was completely out of character for the central bankers to lower > > > interest rates twice in the same month.'' > > > > > > Russell says that the Fed chairman raised interest rates in > > > 1999 and 2000 because he saw inflation ghosts, then he cut > > > rates in January simply out of ``fear of fear itself.'' > > > > > > ``The current economic situation does not justify January's rate > > > cuts,'' she says. ``Just a year or two ago, monetary policy > > > appeared to be focused on fighting phantom inflation, now it > > > appears to be focused on fighting a phantom recession.'' > > > > > > Even some Fed officials don't see a recession on the horizon. This > > > week, Federal > > > Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert McTeer struck an upbeat note on > > > the U.S. > > > slowdown, saying he expected the country to avoid a recession and was > > > encouraged by > > > the latest economic conditions. > > > > > > Also, Richmond Fed President Alfred Broaddus said recently that chances > > > were ``pretty > > > high'' that the United States was not facing a broad economic drop, but > > > rather a slowdown > > > centered in manufacturing companies. > > > > > > Not The Stuff Recessions Are Made Of > > > > > > The nation's jobless rate held steady at 4.2 percent and payrolls > > > outside the farm sector > > > jumped by 135,000 in February after gaining 224,000 in January. > > > > > > New cars are still rolling off the nation's dealership lots. Americans > > > bought vehicles at an > > > annual rate of 17.5 million in February, despite an economic slowdown > > > and a plunge in > > > consumer confidence. In January, consumers snapped up automobiles at > > > the fastest pace > > > in four months. > > > > > > The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg's Weekly Chain Store Sales > > > Snapshot > > > estimated that retail sales in February grew by 2.5 percent vs. a year > > > ago. > > > > > > Housing starts were the highest in nine months in January as mortgage > > > rates tracked the > > > downward slide in the Fed's interest rates and sales of previously > > > owned homes rose 3.8 > > > percent in January. > > > > > > Additionally, the service sector that generates a whopping 80 percent > > > of the nation's jobs > > > held steady in February, even though manufacturing, which creates only > > > 20 percent of the > > > jobs, was in recession. For the manufacturers, it was a self-inflicted > > > wound because they > > > ignored signs last summer that the economy was slowing and kept > > > producing goods until > > > they gagged on their bloated inventories. > > > > > > Another positive indicator is the stock market. The Dow Jones > > > industrial average is within > > > flirting distance of the 11,000-point level, which would seem to > > > contradict the view that the > > > economy is going to hell in a handbasket. The Nasdaq market, which sent > > > technology > > > stocks through the roof during the Great Bull Run, may be down a > > > bone-jarring 55 percent, > > > but that market does not truly reflect the economy. > > > > > > ``These are hardly a recession signal,'' says Russell. ''Further, when > > > the stock market and > > > short-term interest rates are in agreement on a forecast for the > > > economy -- as they are > > > now -- they are rarely wrong.'' > > > > > > Bill Valentine, president of Valentine Ventures LLC, says the stock > > > market traditionally > > > leads the economy by six to nine months. > > > > > > ``That means the market falls before the economy does and recovers in > > > advance as well,'' > > > he says. ``If this is a recession, we won't get official confirmation > > > of such until April of 2001 > > > and by then, it will be seven months old -- and too late to do anything > > > about it.'' > > > > > > Over the last 30 years, in every recession except in 1973-75, the > > > market had bottomed out > > > or would start to rally within three months of the time people got a > > > whiff that there was a > > > recession. > > > > > > Valentine's bet: even if a recession occurs, stocks will hold up > > > because Wall Street has > > > already assumed that it is an accomplished fact. > > > > > > ``If we do get a recession, it will be very slight and short, by > > > historical standards -- two or > > > three quarters, max,'' he says. ''The arsenal of interest rates and > > > (President George W. > > > Bush (news - web sites)'s) tax cuts will stave off an economic > > > catastrophe.'' > > > > > > For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.31 points at > > > 10,644.62. The > > > Nasdaq Composite Index was off 64.85 at 2,052.78 and the Standard & > > > Poor's 500 index > > > slipped 0.76 of a point to 1,233.42. > > > > > > -- > > > Dan > > > > > > http://www.globexplorer.com/cfviewer/start.cfm > > > > > > http://www.corazon.org/ > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > - > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2001 23:34:59 EST From: Vanchee1@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] ICUI - --part1_9a.113bd9f4.27ddabf3_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit ICUI 84/89 B rating, some accumulation taking place on Fri, might be worth watching this one on Mon and Tues. see what kind (if any) action might take place. Chris. - --part1_9a.113bd9f4.27ddabf3_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit ICUI 84/89 B rating, some accumulation taking place on Fri, might be worth
watching this one on Mon and Tues. see what kind (if any) action might take
place.

Chris. - --part1_9a.113bd9f4.27ddabf3_boundary-- - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 01:03:12 -0500 From: "Robert McGill" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo Clearly, the nasdaq was being inflated beyond reason. Sky high pe's which were completely unjustified. A tight IT labor market was contributing to wage pressure. I'm told that Greenspan is a believer in Keynesian economics which in turns believes in the Phillips Curve which says that as unemployment goes down, inflation goes up. I believe that we were experiencing inflation, even if it was only in certain areas. The crb index was climbing, of this there is no doubt. As distasteful as the medicine was, IMHO, a dose of castor oil was called for. The patient has had it's dose of medicine and hopefully is now on the road to recovery. We will argue for years whether or not Greenspan's economic policies can be likened to a car veering from side to side of the road narrowly averting disaster or whether or not he truly was the Maestro, regardless, the issue now is can we resume making money. Hopefully the answer is yes. Let's all pull together and see if those of us who so desire can achieve financial independence with the help of this group and Mr. O'Neil. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Dan Forant" To: Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 11:03 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo > I think the Greenspan importance to the economy is over hyped. We may have > seen double the growth without the Fed's influence. He got lucky two ways, > the economy boomed and a woman found him. > > Dan F > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Patrick Wahl" > To: > Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 5:23 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo > > > > Lets see, an unprecedented economic expansion, next to no > > inflation, consistently low unemployment rate, and now we may or > > may not be in a recession, it is still unclear, and you think > > Greenspan should go? You don't cut a guy much slack do you... > > > > On 11 Mar 01, at 14:54, Dan Forant wrote: > > > > > Time for Greenspan to go bye bye. He served his purpose well for years, > now > > > his foresight is failing him. > > > > > > Dan F > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: "Dan" > > > To: > > > Sent: Saturday, March 10, 2001 11:05 PM > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo > > > > > > > > > > http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010310/bs/stocks_week_dc_1.html > > > > > > > > Saturday March 10 10:56 AM ET > > > > Is Greenspan Fighting Phantom > > > > Recession? > > > > > > > > By Pierre Belec > > > > > > > > NEW YORK (Reuters) - Nearly two years ago, Alan Greenspan > > > > (news - web sites) began raising interest rates to head off > > > > ``inflation'' and now he's chopping away at rates to head off > > > > ``recession.'' As it turned out, he was fighting phantom inflation > > > > and people are wondering if he is now combating a phantom > > > > recession. > > > > > > > > One expert says the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) > > > > chairman has gotten it wrong before and he may be missing > > > > the bull's-eye, again. > > > > > > > > ``First, the Fed was raising rates to fight inflation, which did not > > > > exist and now it is lowering rates to fight a recession, which we > > > > feel does not exist,'' says Penny Russell, economist at H. C. > > > > Wainwright & Co., Economics Inc. > > > > > > > > While the Fed was raising interest rates to a 10-year high > > > > between 1999 and 2000, the Consumer Price Index (news - > > > > web sites), which tracks inflation at the retail level, edged up > > > > less than 1.5 percentage points and the core rate that excludes > > > > volatile food and energy prices went up even less. > > > > > > > > Greenspan's tight money policy succeeded too well as the > > > > economy's growth has nearly stalled. In January this year, the > > > > central bank launched a bold move: preemptive rate cuts for > > > > fear that the six interest-rate hikes had put the economy at risk > > > > of recession. > > > > > > > > Smart move? No, says Russell, dismissing the Fed's > > > > assurance that it can figure out to the nth degree when the > > > > economy is facing a killer problem, like a recession. > > > > > > > > ``What's happening is that we have been through an economic > > > > period when things were so extraordinary and when they go > > > > back to just ordinary, people seem to be more concerned than > > > > they should,'' Russell says. > > > > > > > > DID GREENSPAN's RATE HIKES CHOKE ECONOMY? > > > > > > > > ``So it would appear,'' says Russell. ``But the truth is that no > > > > one at the Fed -- not even its illustrious chairman -- is capable > > > > of managing a large and complex economy like the U.S. or of > > > > knowing just when to raise and when to lower interest rates to > > > > keep growth within a predesignated range.'' > > > > > > > > Greenspan, who worried that the stock market was too > > > > high-priced in 1999, went on a rate-raising spree instead of > > > > allowing Wall Street to correct its excess in its own sweet time. > > > > The result of this hands-on money policy: the rapid destruction > > > > of $3 trillion in stock market wealth and disillusioned > > > > households that caused consumer confidence to plunge. > > > > > > > > Falling stock prices made a lot of Americans feel poor > > > > because many of them looked at the market during the great > > > > boom years between 1995 and 1999 as a savings account > > > > with tremendously good yields. > > > > > > > > The market's monster reversal, which sent the Nasdaq down an > > > > eye-popping 55 percent from its high during a 12-month > > > > period, shook consumer confidence in a New York minute. The > > > > reason that the apprehension spread so fast was because > > > > more than 50 percent of U.S. households have a stake in the > > > > stock market through retirement accounts. > > > > > > > > Russell favors benign neglect and monetary neutrality rather > > > > than the Fed's jockeying, which she says destabilizes both the > > > > economy and stock market. > > > > > > > > ``Now, if the Fed could be persuaded to leave rates alone and > > > > let all the ripples die out, there is no reason that the economy > > > > could not get back on the fast track,'' she says. > > > > ``Noninterference would be even more stimulative than a tax > > > > cut.'' > > > > > > > > Greenspan and his fellow bankers have been known to fumble > > > > the ball. They misread the handwriting on the wall in 1990-91 > > > > when a recession was slamming the economy and fell asleep > > > > at the wheel. > > > > > > > > So the Fed, which is now racing to keep the economy from > > > > tipping into recession, is faced with a dilemma on whether to > > > > cut interest rates for a third time this year. It has made two cuts > > > > each of 50 basis points in January after boosting rates by 175 > > > > basis points from June 1999 to May 2000. > > > > > > > > Russell says that if interest rates had been left alone in > > > > 1999-2000, the economy would have slowed down by itself, > > > > ``gently not abruptly and we would have been enjoying higher > > > > growth than we are now.'' > > > > > > > > The betting is that the Fed again will lower by 50 basis points > > > > at its March 20 policy-setting meeting. > > > > > > > > Recession Isn'T In The Cards > > > > > > > > Even the numbers crunchers say that an old reliable measuring > > > > stick -- the nation's money supply, also known as M2 -- is not > > > > emitting signals of a recession. M2 has jumped at an annual > > > > rate of more than 10 percent over the last three months, which > > > > means the Fed is printing more money to pump up the > > > > softening economy. > > > > > > > > ``Since the M2 series began in 1959, the U.S. economy has > > > > never entered a recession with the real M2 growth this high,'' > > > > says Paul Kasriel, head of economic research at Northern > > > > Trust Co. ``The additional 50 basis points of cuts we are > > > > forecasting to occur by March 20 would be expected to boost > > > > nominal M2 growth still more.'' > > > > > > > > Russell says the Fed appears to be focusing too much on > > > > momentary changes in the economy. > > > > > > > > ``The central bank is overreacting to what is happening in the > > > > economy,'' she says. ``It was astounding how precipitous the > > > > Fed was in lowering interest rates in January,'' she says. ``It > > > > was completely out of character for the central bankers to lower > > > > interest rates twice in the same month.'' > > > > > > > > Russell says that the Fed chairman raised interest rates in > > > > 1999 and 2000 because he saw inflation ghosts, then he cut > > > > rates in January simply out of ``fear of fear itself.'' > > > > > > > > ``The current economic situation does not justify January's rate > > > > cuts,'' she says. ``Just a year or two ago, monetary policy > > > > appeared to be focused on fighting phantom inflation, now it > > > > appears to be focused on fighting a phantom recession.'' > > > > > > > > Even some Fed officials don't see a recession on the horizon. This > > > > week, Federal > > > > Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert McTeer struck an upbeat note > on > > > > the U.S. > > > > slowdown, saying he expected the country to avoid a recession and was > > > > encouraged by > > > > the latest economic conditions. > > > > > > > > Also, Richmond Fed President Alfred Broaddus said recently that > chances > > > > were ``pretty > > > > high'' that the United States was not facing a broad economic drop, > but > > > > rather a slowdown > > > > centered in manufacturing companies. > > > > > > > > Not The Stuff Recessions Are Made Of > > > > > > > > The nation's jobless rate held steady at 4.2 percent and payrolls > > > > outside the farm sector > > > > jumped by 135,000 in February after gaining 224,000 in January. > > > > > > > > New cars are still rolling off the nation's dealership lots. > Americans > > > > bought vehicles at an > > > > annual rate of 17.5 million in February, despite an economic slowdown > > > > and a plunge in > > > > consumer confidence. In January, consumers snapped up automobiles at > > > > the fastest pace > > > > in four months. > > > > > > > > The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg's Weekly Chain Store > Sales > > > > Snapshot > > > > estimated that retail sales in February grew by 2.5 percent vs. a > year > > > > ago. > > > > > > > > Housing starts were the highest in nine months in January as mortgage > > > > rates tracked the > > > > downward slide in the Fed's interest rates and sales of previously > > > > owned homes rose 3.8 > > > > percent in January. > > > > > > > > Additionally, the service sector that generates a whopping 80 percent > > > > of the nation's jobs > > > > held steady in February, even though manufacturing, which creates > only > > > > 20 percent of the > > > > jobs, was in recession. For the manufacturers, it was a > self-inflicted > > > > wound because they > > > > ignored signs last summer that the economy was slowing and kept > > > > producing goods until > > > > they gagged on their bloated inventories. > > > > > > > > Another positive indicator is the stock market. The Dow Jones > > > > industrial average is within > > > > flirting distance of the 11,000-point level, which would seem to > > > > contradict the view that the > > > > economy is going to hell in a handbasket. The Nasdaq market, which > sent > > > > technology > > > > stocks through the roof during the Great Bull Run, may be down a > > > > bone-jarring 55 percent, > > > > but that market does not truly reflect the economy. > > > > > > > > ``These are hardly a recession signal,'' says Russell. ''Further, > when > > > > the stock market and > > > > short-term interest rates are in agreement on a forecast for the > > > > economy -- as they are > > > > now -- they are rarely wrong.'' > > > > > > > > Bill Valentine, president of Valentine Ventures LLC, says the stock > > > > market traditionally > > > > leads the economy by six to nine months. > > > > > > > > ``That means the market falls before the economy does and recovers in > > > > advance as well,'' > > > > he says. ``If this is a recession, we won't get official confirmation > > > > of such until April of 2001 > > > > and by then, it will be seven months old -- and too late to do > anything > > > > about it.'' > > > > > > > > Over the last 30 years, in every recession except in 1973-75, the > > > > market had bottomed out > > > > or would start to rally within three months of the time people got a > > > > whiff that there was a > > > > recession. > > > > > > > > Valentine's bet: even if a recession occurs, stocks will hold up > > > > because Wall Street has > > > > already assumed that it is an accomplished fact. > > > > > > > > ``If we do get a recession, it will be very slight and short, by > > > > historical standards -- two or > > > > three quarters, max,'' he says. ''The arsenal of interest rates and > > > > (President George W. > > > > Bush (news - web sites)'s) tax cuts will stave off an economic > > > > catastrophe.'' > > > > > > > > For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.31 points > at > > > > 10,644.62. The > > > > Nasdaq Composite Index was off 64.85 at 2,052.78 and the Standard & > > > > Poor's 500 index > > > > slipped 0.76 of a point to 1,233.42. > > > > > > > > -- > > > > Dan > > > > > > > > http://www.globexplorer.com/cfviewer/start.cfm > > > > > > > > http://www.corazon.org/ > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > - > - - ------------------------------ Date: 11 Mar 2001 20:15:03 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo Dude, y'all soundin' like one those "gummint coming' ta git me" good ol' boys. Chill. At 11:03 PM 3/11/2001 -0500, you wrote: >I think the Greenspan importance to the economy is over hyped. We may have >seen double the growth without the Fed's influence. He got lucky two ways, >the economy boomed and a woman found him. > >Dan F >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Patrick Wahl" >To: >Sent: Sunday, March 11, 2001 5:23 PM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo > > > > Lets see, an unprecedented economic expansion, next to no > > inflation, consistently low unemployment rate, and now we may or > > may not be in a recession, it is still unclear, and you think > > Greenspan should go? You don't cut a guy much slack do you... > > > > On 11 Mar 01, at 14:54, Dan Forant wrote: > > > > > Time for Greenspan to go bye bye. He served his purpose well for years, >now > > > his foresight is failing him. > > > > > > Dan F > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: "Dan" > > > To: > > > Sent: Saturday, March 10, 2001 11:05 PM > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] From: daily news, yahoo > > > > > > > > > > http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010310/bs/stocks_week_dc_1.html > > > > > > > > Saturday March 10 10:56 AM ET > > > > Is Greenspan Fighting Phantom > > > > Recession? > > > > > > > > By Pierre Belec > > > > > > > > NEW YORK (Reuters) - Nearly two years ago, Alan Greenspan > > > > (news - web sites) began raising interest rates to head off > > > > ``inflation'' and now he's chopping away at rates to head off > > > > ``recession.'' As it turned out, he was fighting phantom inflation > > > > and people are wondering if he is now combating a phantom > > > > recession. > > > > > > > > One expert says the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) > > > > chairman has gotten it wrong before and he may be missing > > > > the bull's-eye, again. > > > > > > > > ``First, the Fed was raising rates to fight inflation, which did not > > > > exist and now it is lowering rates to fight a recession, which we > > > > feel does not exist,'' says Penny Russell, economist at H. C. > > > > Wainwright & Co., Economics Inc. > > > > > > > > While the Fed was raising interest rates to a 10-year high > > > > between 1999 and 2000, the Consumer Price Index (news - > > > > web sites), which tracks inflation at the retail level, edged up > > > > less than 1.5 percentage points and the core rate that excludes > > > > volatile food and energy prices went up even less. > > > > > > > > Greenspan's tight money policy succeeded too well as the > > > > economy's growth has nearly stalled. In January this year, the > > > > central bank launched a bold move: preemptive rate cuts for > > > > fear that the six interest-rate hikes had put the economy at risk > > > > of recession. > > > > > > > > Smart move? No, says Russell, dismissing the Fed's > > > > assurance that it can figure out to the nth degree when the > > > > economy is facing a killer problem, like a recession. > > > > > > > > ``What's happening is that we have been through an economic > > > > period when things were so extraordinary and when they go > > > > back to just ordinary, people seem to be more concerned than > > > > they should,'' Russell says. > > > > > > > > DID GREENSPAN's RATE HIKES CHOKE ECONOMY? > > > > > > > > ``So it would appear,'' says Russell. ``But the truth is that no > > > > one at the Fed -- not even its illustrious chairman -- is capable > > > > of managing a large and complex economy like the U.S. or of > > > > knowing just when to raise and when to lower interest rates to > > > > keep growth within a predesignated range.'' > > > > > > > > Greenspan, who worried that the stock market was too > > > > high-priced in 1999, went on a rate-raising spree instead of > > > > allowing Wall Street to correct its excess in its own sweet time. > > > > The result of this hands-on money policy: the rapid destruction > > > > of $3 trillion in stock market wealth and disillusioned > > > > households that caused consumer confidence to plunge. > > > > > > > > Falling stock prices made a lot of Americans feel poor > > > > because many of them looked at the market during the great > > > > boom years between 1995 and 1999 as a savings account > > > > with tremendously good yields. > > > > > > > > The market's monster reversal, which sent the Nasdaq down an > > > > eye-popping 55 percent from its high during a 12-month > > > > period, shook consumer confidence in a New York minute. The > > > > reason that the apprehension spread so fast was because > > > > more than 50 percent of U.S. households have a stake in the > > > > stock market through retirement accounts. > > > > > > > > Russell favors benign neglect and monetary neutrality rather > > > > than the Fed's jockeying, which she says destabilizes both the > > > > economy and stock market. > > > > > > > > ``Now, if the Fed could be persuaded to leave rates alone and > > > > let all the ripples die out, there is no reason that the economy > > > > could not get back on the fast track,'' she says. > > > > ``Noninterference would be even more stimulative than a tax > > > > cut.'' > > > > > > > > Greenspan and his fellow bankers have been known to fumble > > > > the ball. They misread the handwriting on the wall in 1990-91 > > > > when a recession was slamming the economy and fell asleep > > > > at the wheel. > > > > > > > > So the Fed, which is now racing to keep the economy from > > > > tipping into recession, is faced with a dilemma on whether to > > > > cut interest rates for a third time this year. It has made two cuts > > > > each of 50 basis points in January after boosting rates by 175 > > > > basis points from June 1999 to May 2000. > > > > > > > > Russell says that if interest rates had been left alone in > > > > 1999-2000, the economy would have slowed down by itself, > > > > ``gently not abruptly and we would have been enjoying higher > > > > growth than we are now.'' > > > > > > > > The betting is that the Fed again will lower by 50 basis points > > > > at its March 20 policy-setting meeting. > > > > > > > > Recession Isn'T In The Cards > > > > > > > > Even the numbers crunchers say that an old reliable measuring > > > > stick -- the nation's money supply, also known as M2 -- is not > > > > emitting signals of a recession. M2 has jumped at an annual > > > > rate of more than 10 percent over the last three months, which > > > > means the Fed is printing more money to pump up the > > > > softening economy. > > > > > > > > ``Since the M2 series began in 1959, the U.S. economy has > > > > never entered a recession with the real M2 growth this high,'' > > > > says Paul Kasriel, head of economic research at Northern > > > > Trust Co. ``The additional 50 basis points of cuts we are > > > > forecasting to occur by March 20 would be expected to boost > > > > nominal M2 growth still more.'' > > > > > > > > Russell says the Fed appears to be focusing too much on > > > > momentary changes in the economy. > > > > > > > > ``The central bank is overreacting to what is happening in the > > > > economy,'' she says. ``It was astounding how precipitous the > > > > Fed was in lowering interest rates in January,'' she says. ``It > > > > was completely out of character for the central bankers to lower > > > > interest rates twice in the same month.'' > > > > > > > > Russell says that the Fed chairman raised interest rates in > > > > 1999 and 2000 because he saw inflation ghosts, then he cut > > > > rates in January simply out of ``fear of fear itself.'' > > > > > > > > ``The current economic situation does not justify January's rate > > > > cuts,'' she says. ``Just a year or two ago, monetary policy > > > > appeared to be focused on fighting phantom inflation, now it > > > > appears to be focused on fighting a phantom recession.'' > > > > > > > > Even some Fed officials don't see a recession on the horizon. This > > > > week, Federal > > > > Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert McTeer struck an upbeat note >on > > > > the U.S. > > > > slowdown, saying he expected the country to avoid a recession and was > > > > encouraged by > > > > the latest economic conditions. > > > > > > > > Also, Richmond Fed President Alfred Broaddus said recently that >chances > > > > were ``pretty > > > > high'' that the United States was not facing a broad economic drop, >but > > > > rather a slowdown > > > > centered in manufacturing companies. > > > > > > > > Not The Stuff Recessions Are Made Of > > > > > > > > The nation's jobless rate held steady at 4.2 percent and payrolls > > > > outside the farm sector > > > > jumped by 135,000 in February after gaining 224,000 in January. > > > > > > > > New cars are still rolling off the nation's dealership lots. >Americans > > > > bought vehicles at an > > > > annual rate of 17.5 million in February, despite an economic slowdown > > > > and a plunge in > > > > consumer confidence. In January, consumers snapped up automobiles at > > > > the fastest pace > > > > in four months. > > > > > > > > The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg's Weekly Chain Store >Sales > > > > Snapshot > > > > estimated that retail sales in February grew by 2.5 percent vs. a >year > > > > ago. > > > > > > > > Housing starts were the highest in nine months in January as mortgage > > > > rates tracked the > > > > downward slide in the Fed's interest rates and sales of previously > > > > owned homes rose 3.8 > > > > percent in January. > > > > > > > > Additionally, the service sector that generates a whopping 80 percent > > > > of the nation's jobs > > > > held steady in February, even though manufacturing, which creates >only > > > > 20 percent of the > > > > jobs, was in recession. For the manufacturers, it was a >self-inflicted > > > > wound because they > > > > ignored signs last summer that the economy was slowing and kept > > > > producing goods until > > > > they gagged on their bloated inventories. > > > > > > > > Another positive indicator is the stock market. The Dow Jones > > > > industrial average is within > > > > flirting distance of the 11,000-point level, which would seem to > > > > contradict the view that the > > > > economy is going to hell in a handbasket. The Nasdaq market, which >sent > > > > technology > > > > stocks through the roof during the Great Bull Run, may be down a > > > > bone-jarring 55 percent, > > > > but that market does not truly reflect the economy. > > > > > > > > ``These are hardly a recession signal,'' says Russell. ''Further, >when > > > > the stock market and > > > > short-term interest rates are in agreement on a forecast for the > > > > economy -- as they are > > > > now -- they are rarely wrong.'' > > > > > > > > Bill Valentine, president of Valentine Ventures LLC, says the stock > > > > market traditionally > > > > leads the economy by six to nine months. > > > > > > > > ``That means the market falls before the economy does and recovers in > > > > advance as well,'' > > > > he says. ``If this is a recession, we won't get official confirmation > > > > of such until April of 2001 > > > > and by then, it will be seven months old -- and too late to do >anything > > > > about it.'' > > > > > > > > Over the last 30 years, in every recession except in 1973-75, the > > > > market had bottomed out > > > > or would start to rally within three months of the time people got a > > > > whiff that there was a > > > > recession. > > > > > > > > Valentine's bet: even if a recession occurs, stocks will hold up > > > > because Wall Street has > > > > already assumed that it is an accomplished fact. > > > > > > > > ``If we do get a recession, it will be very slight and short, by > > > > historical standards -- two or > > > > three quarters, max,'' he says. ''The arsenal of interest rates and > > > > (President George W. > > > > Bush (news - web sites)'s) tax cuts will stave off an economic > > > > catastrophe.'' > > > > > > > > For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.31 points >at > > > > 10,644.62. The > > > > Nasdaq Composite Index was off 64.85 at 2,052.78 and the Standard & > > > > Poor's 500 index > > > > slipped 0.76 of a point to 1,233.42. > > > > > > > > -- > > > > Dan > > > > > > > > http://www.globexplorer.com/cfviewer/start.cfm > > > > > > > > http://www.corazon.org/ > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > >- Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1201 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.