From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #129 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk canslim-digest Friday, February 27 1998 Volume 02 : Number 129 In this issue: [CANSLIM] DPRC - Another Staffing Group Stock [CANSLIM] PURW Re: [CANSLIM] DPRC - Another Staffing Group Stock Re: [CANSLIM] Fundamental site to scan all stocks? Re: [CANSLIM] Fundamental site to scan all stocks? [CANSLIM] EPIQ [CANSLIM] Elder's Triple Screen Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ Re: [CANSLIM] Elder's Triple Screen Re: [CANSLIM] Fundamental site to scan all stocks? Re: [CANSLIM] Fundamental site to scan all stocks? Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ [CANSLIM] EPIQ [CANSLIM] Stocks Re: [CANSLIM] Elder's Triple Screen Re: [CANSLIM] Elder's Triple Screen Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 06:41:44 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] DPRC - Another Staffing Group Stock Found another Interesting chart in the staffing group. DPRC Eps 96 Rs 86 3.6mil float Shares 11 mil Funds own 32% Management owns 67% U/D Vol Ratio 1.6 Earnings due 3/4 Looks poised to have over a 100% qtr year to year. Brand new turf at $31.13/share They provide Information Technology specialty staffing. Frank Wolynski ( I am often wrong, please plan accordingly.) - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 07:22:16 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] PURW One disadvantage of thinly traded stocks is that when they finally come to life, the up/down volume ratio can get rather silly. Thanks to yesterday's huge volume on Pure World, the ratio went, in one day, from 1.4 to 8.3. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 07:30:05 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DPRC - Another Staffing Group Stock Banks are also shown as owning 2%, added together, this makes 101%, so nothing would be left to trade. Obviously one of these nrs (I suspect the management figure, at a minimum) is outdated. DG Online has the same figures and I have sent them an email. Any idea why the revenue growth is so much greater than the earnings growth?? Was a nice buy around 25 three weeks ago when it broke out of a short base on volume, gave a second chance near that price a week ago when it pulled back. But right now I would see it strictly as a momentum play rather than CANSLIM. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, February 27, 1998 6:38 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] DPRC - Another Staffing Group Stock >Found another Interesting chart in the staffing group. >DPRC Eps 96 Rs 86 3.6mil float Shares 11 mil >Funds own 32% Management owns 67% >U/D Vol Ratio 1.6 >Earnings due 3/4 >Looks poised to have over a 100% qtr year to year. >Brand new turf at $31.13/share >They provide Information Technology specialty staffing. > >Frank Wolynski >( I am often wrong, please plan accordingly.) > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 07:39:30 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fundamental site to scan all stocks? The only place I know where you get true CANSLIM data according to WON's formulas is from his Daily Graphs site. You can download the software at www.dailygraphs.com then register. Once you get your password, there are a number of reports that are also in the books. I seem to recall someone mentioning they had found a way to download these into Excel or some other spreadsheet program, where they could then do their screening. Daily Graphs is currently in beta stage. It can go commercial any day, at an annual cost of about $700. You may also want to browse our CANSLIM archives as this topic has been discussed before, with lots of suggestions from members of other sites where they use different screening approaches to at least mimic, if not duplicate, CANSLIM elements. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: John Greenleaf To: [CANSLIM] Date: Thursday, February 26, 1998 10:26 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Fundamental site to scan all stocks? >Is there a free website that allows you to use "Canslim Fundamentals" >screening criteria through all the different stocks at one time?? > >I would like to enter criteria for several financial items at once and find >the "Best" stocks to monitor. > >Forgive me if this has been answered before. I am new to this group. > > >John Greenleaf --- phoenix1@bigfoot.com --- maverick@wi.net >Waterford, Wisconsin --- I don't make the product, I make it better >----------------------------------------------------------------------- >The Future Belongs to Those who Believe >in the Beauty of Their Dreams. E. Roosevelt >----------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 08:04:13 -0500 From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fundamental site to scan all stocks? Check out Zacks research wizard, its expensive but all the quartly data is there. $55 for two months free trial with 100 stocks. > >Is there a free website that allows you to use "Canslim Fundamentals" > >screening criteria through all the different stocks at one time?? > > > >I would like to enter criteria for several financial items at once and find > >the "Best" stocks to monitor. > > > >Forgive me if this has been answered before. I am new to this group. > > > > > >John Greenleaf --- phoenix1@bigfoot.com --- maverick@wi.net > >Waterford, Wisconsin --- I don't make the product, I make it better > >----------------------------------------------------------------------- > >The Future Belongs to Those who Believe > >in the Beauty of Their Dreams. E. Roosevelt > >----------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 09:20:36 -0700 From: "Joe J." Subject: [CANSLIM] EPIQ I trust that the trashing of EPIQ on Thursday on the largest volume day yet and the down day so far on Friday (11 EST) pretty much takes this out of play from a CANSLIM standpoint as either a potential buy for those not in it and a sell signal for those already in it? Joe J. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 09:30:50 -0700 From: "Joe J." Subject: [CANSLIM] Elder's Triple Screen There has been a couple of posts on Elder's Triple Screen methods. It sounded interesting so I went to the bookstore to check out his book "Trading for a Living". It seemed like an interesting piece of work so I shelled out the $50 for it. Elder is a psychologist turned professional trader so the first part of his book focuses on the psychology of the "markets". It is quite good so far. However, even though I haven't started the trading system portion of the book, I can see Elder's basic premise is to enter the trade at "quite" times and exit during the mad rush times. Really quite opposite of WON. Anyway, if I come accross anything else that may be of interest to the group, I'll post it. Joe J. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 11:57:22 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ Joe, At 09:20 AM 2/27/98 -0700, you wrote: >I trust that the trashing of EPIQ on Thursday on the largest volume day >yet and the down day so far on Friday (11 EST) pretty much takes this >out of play from a CANSLIM standpoint as either a potential buy for >those not in it and a sell signal for those already in it? > Yes. It is known as a climax top. Note the huge volume over the last several trading days. This volume is not coming as it breaks out of a base, but as it accelerates at the top of a run (blowoff activity). Notice that yesterday the stock started up but shortly turned down AND it had the highest volume of any day since the move began. This was the climactic day. Also notice that it had advanced 60% from a short base in 3 weeks! This alone is climactic activity. The stock had gone from $3 to $20 in a year. Now it is badly bruised and typically one can expect these to retrace 50% of the move. So $20 - $3 = $17. $17/2 = $8.50. $20 - $8.50 = $11.50. So a retracement to $11.50 is not out of the question. Also note that the 200dma is at about $7.50, and you have a danger signal once the stock is more than double the 200dma. So from $15 on up, the warning light was flashing red. Congratulations to Tom on picking an excellent exit point! It is hard to sell when a stock goes up every day because it feels so good to just sit on your hands and watch the pile of money grow. And then when it does pullback like yesterday, it is easy to say, "oh, it deserves a rest here, I'll give it a week or two". But climax runs usually don't turn out so benignly (although occasionally they do - anything is possible). The pain grows and grows as your profits slip away and the stock works its way down. The day you are "forced" to sell because you cannot stand the pain any more, frequently calls the bottom (or at least a short term one). Better to exit a stock that is acting like this, preferably on a day like 02/25 or 02/26 when distribution becomes apparent. PS. This stuff is not hard and fast - nothing in the market is after all. There could be some monster news that would make this stock turn on a dime and go higher than $20 in the next few days or weeks, but the odds against it are about 99.99% IMO. Odds are that it will not pass $20 again for months, although I would not rule out a snap back rally after the initial sellers are exhausted. And if it bases here in a tight range (20-30%) for 8 or 12 weeks and then breaks out, I would probably want to own it then. PPS. Yesterday would have been a good day to short this stock (the one exception I have to not shorting anything above the 50dma. Today is too late though IMO. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 12:05:23 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Elder's Triple Screen Joe, At 09:30 AM 2/27/98 -0700, you wrote: >... I went to the bookstore to check out his book >"Trading for a Living". It seemed like an interesting piece of work so >I shelled out the $50 for it. ... I agree. Perused it at the book store over Christmas and thought it was great. I intend to read it this year. Especially interesting to see the opposite of the Canslim take on things for a lot of trades. And I can see how they work much of the time. For example, if you are selling a breakout short, especially on the second (followthrough) day, you will often get a retracement all the way down to the pivot point. This can be an fairly high percentage 5-10% gain. But you must set your stop within 2 or 3% of your initial sell-point, because if it moves up, you might have a quick 20% gainer on your hands, which is nothing to be short on. Odds are against it though (these are less common than retracements to the pivot or at least back in that direction). Worthwhile book, even for long term holders of stocks who buy breakouts to make their entry points. Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 09:13:02 -0800 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fundamental site to scan all stocks? At 08:04 AM 2/27/98 -0500, you wrote: >Check out Zacks research wizard, its expensive but all the quartly data is >there. >$55 for two months free trial with 100 stocks. > $55 for free trial? Guess I'll jump right on that one! Actually the hamstrung version - Research Marvel - is free for all 6000 stocks covered by Zacks. Sign up for a month-long free trial with them and you can d/l the software and current database. It does screens just as well as the real thing. Only some whiz-bang features are disablesd (which I wouldn't find useful anyway). Tim Fisher / tfish@spiritone.com Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites: http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 12:33:17 -0500 From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fundamental site to scan all stocks? The wizard contains the historical Quarterly EPS numbers which I didn't see on research marvel. The free version with 100 stocks is worth investigating. I'll let the others decide if this plus quarterly estimates and earnings projection increases are worth $50/mo or so(note these seem to correlate with higher stock prices). The marvel does give email for the earnings increases on a portofolio of stocks. Peter Newell - ---------- > From: Tim Fisher > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fundamental site to scan all stocks? > Date: Friday, February 27, 1998 12:13 PM > > At 08:04 AM 2/27/98 -0500, you wrote: > >Check out Zacks research wizard, its expensive but all the quartly data is > >there. > >$55 for two months free trial with 100 stocks. > > > $55 for free trial? Guess I'll jump right on that one! Actually the > hamstrung version - Research Marvel - is free for all 6000 stocks covered > by Zacks. Sign up for a month-long free trial with them and you can d/l the > software and current database. It does screens just as well as the real > thing. Only some whiz-bang features are disablesd (which I wouldn't find > useful anyway). > > > Tim Fisher / tfish@spiritone.com > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites: > http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish > See naked fish and rocks! > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 09:50:10 -0800 From: "Robert Venchiarutti" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ Thanks for the analysis. I've often heard of a climax top, but the concept has finally sunk in with this example and your explanation. And congratulations to Tom. Craig, I assume that you do not short stocks above the 50 day ma because that is your benchmark for the intermediate trend of a stock (above 50 ma is an uptrend; below is a downtrend). If I am wrong, perhaps you can explain your strategy more fully. - -----Original Message----- From: Craig Griffin To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, February 27, 1998 9:00 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ >Joe, > >At 09:20 AM 2/27/98 -0700, you wrote: >>I trust that the trashing of EPIQ on Thursday on the largest volume day >>yet and the down day so far on Friday (11 EST) pretty much takes this >>out of play from a CANSLIM standpoint as either a potential buy for >>those not in it and a sell signal for those already in it? >> > >Yes. It is known as a climax top. Note the huge volume over the last >several trading days. This volume is not coming as it breaks out of a base, >but as it accelerates at the top of a run (blowoff activity). Notice that >yesterday the stock started up but shortly turned down AND it had the >highest volume of any day since the move began. This was the climactic day. >Also notice that it had advanced 60% from a short base in 3 weeks! This >alone is climactic activity. > >The stock had gone from $3 to $20 in a year. Now it is badly bruised and >typically one can expect these to retrace 50% of the move. So $20 - $3 = >$17. $17/2 = $8.50. $20 - $8.50 = $11.50. So a retracement to $11.50 is >not out of the question. Also note that the 200dma is at about $7.50, and >you have a danger signal once the stock is more than double the 200dma. So >from $15 on up, the warning light was flashing red. > >Congratulations to Tom on picking an excellent exit point! It is hard to >sell when a stock goes up every day because it feels so good to just sit on >your hands and watch the pile of money grow. And then when it does pullback >like yesterday, it is easy to say, "oh, it deserves a rest here, I'll give >it a week or two". But climax runs usually don't turn out so benignly >(although occasionally they do - anything is possible). The pain grows and >grows as your profits slip away and the stock works its way down. The day >you are "forced" to sell because you cannot stand the pain any more, >frequently calls the bottom (or at least a short term one). Better to exit >a stock that is acting like this, preferably on a day like 02/25 or 02/26 >when distribution becomes apparent. > >PS. This stuff is not hard and fast - nothing in the market is after all. >There could be some monster news that would make this stock turn on a dime >and go higher than $20 in the next few days or weeks, but the odds against >it are about 99.99% IMO. Odds are that it will not pass $20 again for >months, although I would not rule out a snap back rally after the initial >sellers are exhausted. And if it bases here in a tight range (20-30%) for 8 >or 12 weeks and then breaks out, I would probably want to own it then. > >PPS. Yesterday would have been a good day to short this stock (the one >exception I have to not shorting anything above the 50dma. Today is too >late though IMO. > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 13:18:34 -0500 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] EPIQ - --------------4C737A5DF9290EF62BDC5A4B Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Members-- Several members have commented on EPIQ in the last few days. May I pass on some comment that Tom and I have had about the stock recently. I don't have my mail to Tom, but, as I recall, I strongly cautioned him to beware of the stock. I may have suggested that he considering taking at least some of his profits, for he had made a nice piece of change. My concern can be easily seen in one of my primary indicators: MoneyFlow. Pull up BigC and set the lower window indicator to MF for both 3 and 6 month charts. [Before quitting the post, pull up a 12-month chart. Notice that in February 1997, the MF began a negative divergence that lasted two months; then it began to track price once more.] Draw a trend line across the tops in early and late December on the 3-month chart. Extend the trend line on into January. Now draw a trend line on the stock. Look at the negative divergence. This divergence ought to be read as extreme danger that will, if the indicator is fulfilled in the price of the stock, cause a serious correction, or even a collapse. The indicator does not specify a precise time. Too, that the negative divergence is a couple of months old makes its fulfillment, if it is to be fulfilled, less significant than were it only a week or so old. Nevertheless, the divergence is not to be waived because of its age. It promises a surprise down the road. A trend line from the front of December to the middle of February is also declining against the rise of the stock. Then note the 5-6 down spike a few days ago and this against a further rise in the stock. This will be the last warning you'll get [unless you go back to the 12-month chart mentioned above]. And it is a powerful warning, especially in conjunction with the earlier one. The month-long flattening of the slow stochastic is a sign of congestion that has already been hinted at as being to the downside by the MF indicator. Too, for those of you who do not discount candlestick indicators, there is a further hint. The OBV volume has tracked the stock nicely and has given no warning yet. A part of every trader's and investor's strategy ought to be the assigning of weight to his indicators. Not to make this assignment is to waver when indicators are deteriorating or to vacillate about your judgment because you don't have faith in the indicators. Until you set weights on your indicators, you will allow yourself to be influenced by peripheral indicators. To do this is to enter a crap shoot. I expect that Tom was not sure about his exit of EPIQ, for it did move up after he and I talked. He left some money on the table. There is nothing wrong with leaving money on the table, but there is something wrong when you have lost the table too. I dislike to give advice on stock, and would not have given any to Tom had I not known that he was a professional trader/investor and knew what I knew: That no one finally knows. A couple of members have asked me about the future of EPIQ. I admit that I don't know. The stock has not lied: It gave two hints that all was not well. But I'm not sure that I can trust it to tell me when to get back in. Connie Mack - --------------4C737A5DF9290EF62BDC5A4B Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Members--

Several members have commented on EPIQ in the last few days.  May I pass on some comment that Tom and I have had about the stock recently.

I don't have my mail to Tom, but, as I recall, I strongly cautioned him to beware of the stock.  I may have suggested that he considering taking at least some of his profits, for he had made a nice piece of change.

My concern can be easily seen in one of my primary indicators: MoneyFlow.  Pull up BigC and set the lower window indicator to MF for both 3 and 6 month charts.  [Before quitting the post, pull up a 12-month chart.  Notice that in February 1997, the MF began a negative divergence that lasted two months; then it began to track price once more.]

Draw a trend line across the tops in early and late December on the 3-month chart.  Extend the trend line on into January.

Now draw a trend line  on the stock.  Look at the negative divergence.  This divergence ought to be read as extreme danger that will, if the indicator is fulfilled in the price of the stock, cause a serious correction, or even a collapse.  The indicator does not specify a precise time.

Too, that the negative divergence is a couple of months old makes its fulfillment, if it is to be fulfilled, less significant than were it only a week or so old.  Nevertheless, the divergence is not to be waived because of its age.  It promises a surprise down the road.

A trend line from the front of December to the middle of February is also declining against the rise of the stock.  Then note the 5-6 down spike a few days ago and this against a further rise in the stock.  This will be the last warning you'll get [unless you go back to the 12-month chart  mentioned above].  And it is a powerful warning, especially in conjunction with the earlier one.

The month-long flattening of the slow stochastic is a sign of congestion that has already been hinted at as being to the downside by the MF indicator.

Too, for those of you who do not discount candlestick indicators, there is a further hint.

The OBV volume has tracked the stock nicely and has given no warning yet.

A part of every trader's and investor's strategy ought to be  the assigning of weight to his indicators.  Not to make this assignment is to waver when indicators are deteriorating or to vacillate about your judgment because you don't have faith in the indicators.  Until you set weights on your indicators, you will allow yourself to be influenced by peripheral indicators.  To do this is to enter a crap shoot.

I expect that Tom was not sure about his exit of EPIQ, for it did move up after he and I talked.  He left some money on the table.  There is nothing wrong with leaving money on the table, but there is something wrong when you have lost the table too.

I dislike to give advice on stock, and would not have given any to Tom had I not known that he was a professional trader/investor and knew what I knew:  That no one finally knows.

A couple of members have asked me about the future of EPIQ.  I admit that I don't know.  The stock has not lied: It gave two hints that all was not well.  But I'm not sure that I can trust it to tell me when to get back in.

Connie Mack - --------------4C737A5DF9290EF62BDC5A4B-- - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 10:23:12 -0800 From: Komkit Tukovinit Subject: [CANSLIM] Stocks Hi Tom, I rechecked DGOL, saving ANLY and DLGC, all seem to have RS and GRS above 80. ANLY and DLGC has RS above 80 but the GRS doesn't look so great. I haven't solidified my rule against investing in stocks with low GRS yet, so I look at any that has EPS and RS ranking above 80. I posted those stocks because they appear to have good fundamentals and their charts appear to be forming C&H, potentially breaking out of bases. All the stocks posted, except, MANU, were reported as "breaking out of base" by IBD-OL. Of course, all the stocks reported by IBDOL as breaking out are not worth investing in, but some do merit a look, which I thought these stocks were. The scan that I use (with marketplayer) looks for significant movement around the 100, 50, 20, 10 average lines (and of course, after the 52 week high). This doesn't yield any stocks that can be immediately invested in yet, but it yields a few stocks to watch and stocks that are still extending aggressively. The scan would miss your pick, EPIQ, consistently since EPIQ doesn't seem to be in their database. Out of this group, I did buy into BVF despite its chart's shallow C&H and short base. I rechecked their latest earning report (after I bought---a bad trait). Here's a summary I sent to other people (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/980225/biovail_co_1.html) - - Both income and revenue doubled for the quarter - - 80% gross margin improving from 77% - same at the yearly level - - 14% sale, marketing, and adminstrative expense increasing from 10% - I haven't seen a company with a marketing budget less than R&D, leaving alone marketing + adminstrative - - 17% R&D from 16% - - 53.6% operating margin, improving from 46% For the year, 45% from 35% The tax that they seem to be paying is <= 5% of their income. Who said Canadians pay lots of tax!!! - - 50% net margin, improving from 47% For the year, 42% from 35% - - 1997 has account receivable of 33.1 million, or 40% of revenue, having a collecting problem???, or next year is going to be another killing year, with all the backlog in revenue. I can't believe the margin of this company, and it's still improving!!! Date: Thu, 26 Feb 1998 21:03:44 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stocks Date: Thu, 26 Feb 1998 21:03:44 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Stocks Guess I just don't understand the post. Several of these have relatively low RS, and they are from different groups. Are you screening for a particular set of criteria? Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - -----Original Message----- From: Komkit Tukovinit To: 'CANSLIM' Date: Thursday, February 26, 1998 2:06 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Stocks >Here's what I thought was getting close: > >MANU > >Here's what IBD On Line reported: >BVF >AATT >ANLY >NCBC >MSM >DLGC > >All seem to have good RS and EPS ranking although only one (BVF) seems >to have a substantial follow-thru. > >kom - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 13:30:14 -0500 (EST) From: Zoran Mitrovski Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Elder's Triple Screen Joe J. wrote: > portion of the book, I can see Elder's basic premise is to enter the > trade at "quiet" times and exit during the mad rush times. Really quite > opposite of WON. I have read the book, and I will recommend it (again) to the group. I too prefer entering a trade at quiet times, especially close to an important (as shown by past precedents in price behavior) moving average or support/resistance level. One of my most comfortable (and profitable) entry strategies has been entering at bottoms of short-term retracements after a high-volume breakout run on a strong RS stock. I like that scenario because of the high information content yielded by the set-up: Quite often it is prefectly obvious from the daily-intraday volume behavior that the big block buyers who entered at the break-out are still holding on to their positions during the trickle-down volume retracements and are only waiting for the proper time to enter again. I have found these situations to be one of the most predictable ones. In addition, these entry points are almost always very close to the "something's wrong" point so losses can be minimized, especially when confirmed with "wrong" volume behavior. Zoran - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 14:07:47 -0500 (EST) From: Deepak Kapur Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Elder's Triple Screen Zoran, >moving average or support/resistance level. One of my most >comfortable (and profitable) entry strategies has been entering >at bottoms of short-term retracements after a high-volume breakout >yielded by the set-up: Quite often it is prefectly obvious from the >daily-intraday volume behavior that the big block buyers who entered >at the break-out are still holding on to their positions during the >trickle-down volume retracements and are only waiting for the proper >time to enter again. I have found these situations to be one of the >most predictable ones. In addition, these entry points are almost >always very close to the "something's wrong" point so losses can >be minimized, especially when confirmed with "wrong" volume behavior. After a long silence, that is a very interesting post. An example(s) would be very useful to illustrate your comment. Regards, Deepak - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 18:08:12 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ Well said Connie, and I will follow what you suggest when I study EPIQ this weekend. As I previously posted, I reluctantly exited this stock just a week ago having made 70% profit in seven weeks. The net (over $3400) was just too much to risk on a volatile, usually thinly traded stock in light of the possibility of an upcoming strike on Iraq. And I feared that if Annan had been unsuccessful, we would know that on Sunday and the mkt would tank on Monday as sentiment was not factoring in an attack. I couldn't wait for the attack to happen, it would be too late. But as I said at the time, I would not have sold EPIQ then had the Iraq issue not been in the equation. I don't regret my choice, altho do regret not jumping back in first thing Monday. But whether I had held or jumped back in, I would have still sold it later in the week, it was simply too extended. Even on a 10dma, which it had generally been tracking closely, it was above it by 4-5 dollars. I considered buying back in today when it was trading about a dollar below where I sold. That fact, combined with another 12.5% gain on PURW, certainly made this a nice "payday Friday" for me. I did not buy EPIQ today, and don't know if I will on Monday since I haven't studied it yet. But based on the way it traded today and the volume, what I hope to see (assuming I do decide to reenter it, otherwise I won't care) is that it will gap down on heavy vol on Monday's open, then reverse. That will be what I will be watching for, if I decide to buy. My preliminary review suggests a buy somewhere in the $14 range, preferably the low end. My sell decision was the right one FOR ME at the time, and I don't regret it, altho wish the final run before the correction had happened sooner. It's even more rare to sell at the high than it is to buy at the low, I was lucky, at least the day I sold I was selling almost at the then new high. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Connie Mack Rea To: canslim Date: Friday, February 27, 1998 1:17 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] EPIQ >Members-- > >Several members have commented on EPIQ in the last few days. May I pass >on some comment that Tom and I have had about the stock recently. > >I don't have my mail to Tom, but, as I recall, I strongly cautioned him >to beware of the stock. I may have suggested that he considering taking >at least some of his profits, for he had made a nice piece of change. > >My concern can be easily seen in one of my primary indicators: >MoneyFlow. Pull up BigC and set the lower window indicator to MF for >both 3 and 6 month charts. [Before quitting the post, pull up a >12-month chart. Notice that in February 1997, the MF began a negative >divergence that lasted two months; then it began to track price once >more.] > >Draw a trend line across the tops in early and late December on the >3-month chart. Extend the trend line on into January. > >Now draw a trend line on the stock. Look at the negative divergence. >This divergence ought to be read as extreme danger that will, if the >indicator is fulfilled in the price of the stock, cause a serious >correction, or even a collapse. The indicator does not specify a >precise time. > >Too, that the negative divergence is a couple of months old makes its >fulfillment, if it is to be fulfilled, less significant than were it >only a week or so old. Nevertheless, the divergence is not to be waived >because of its age. It promises a surprise down the road. > >A trend line from the front of December to the middle of February is >also declining against the rise of the stock. Then note the 5-6 down >spike a few days ago and this against a further rise in the stock. This >will be the last warning you'll get [unless you go back to the 12-month >chart mentioned above]. And it is a powerful warning, especially in >conjunction with the earlier one. > >The month-long flattening of the slow stochastic is a sign of congestion >that has already been hinted at as being to the downside by the MF >indicator. > >Too, for those of you who do not discount candlestick indicators, there >is a further hint. > >The OBV volume has tracked the stock nicely and has given no warning >yet. > >A part of every trader's and investor's strategy ought to be the >assigning of weight to his indicators. Not to make this assignment is >to waver when indicators are deteriorating or to vacillate about your >judgment because you don't have faith in the indicators. Until you set >weights on your indicators, you will allow yourself to be influenced by >peripheral indicators. To do this is to enter a crap shoot. > >I expect that Tom was not sure about his exit of EPIQ, for it did move >up after he and I talked. He left some money on the table. There is >nothing wrong with leaving money on the table, but there is something >wrong when you have lost the table too. > >I dislike to give advice on stock, and would not have given any to Tom >had I not known that he was a professional trader/investor and knew what >I knew: That no one finally knows. > >A couple of members have asked me about the future of EPIQ. I admit >that I don't know. The stock has not lied: It gave two hints that all >was not well. But I'm not sure that I can trust it to tell me when to >get back in. > >Connie Mack > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 27 Feb 1998 18:18:54 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ A couple addl comments. Sometime in the past 7 weeks this stock became marginable, at least at Bear Stearns. When I bot it in my IRA, it was not marginable. When I checked this week, it was. I found out O'Neill put it on his institutional buy list at 13 ($3.50 behind me, heh heh heh - makes up for the money I left on the table!). As of today, I do not believe he has taken it off, altho should it drop much further (e.g. threaten his buy point) I suspect he will. Unless there had been a lot of recent shorting since it became marginal, it appeared to me there was still a lot of buy side interest in owning this stock, even today with it down $2.00. Same kind of thing that happened with the long bond today when it hit 6% yield, buyers came in heavy and drove it back to close positive for the day after a large decline in the morning. They have their price, and won't budge. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Robert Venchiarutti To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, February 27, 1998 12:49 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ >Thanks for the analysis. I've often heard of a climax top, but the concept >has finally sunk in with this example and your explanation. And >congratulations to Tom. > >Craig, I assume that you do not short stocks above the 50 day ma because >that is your benchmark for the intermediate trend of a stock (above 50 ma is >an uptrend; below is a downtrend). If I am wrong, perhaps you can explain >your strategy more fully. > > >-----Original Message----- >From: Craig Griffin >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Friday, February 27, 1998 9:00 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ > > >>Joe, >> >>At 09:20 AM 2/27/98 -0700, you wrote: >>>I trust that the trashing of EPIQ on Thursday on the largest volume day >>>yet and the down day so far on Friday (11 EST) pretty much takes this >>>out of play from a CANSLIM standpoint as either a potential buy for >>>those not in it and a sell signal for those already in it? >>> >> >>Yes. It is known as a climax top. Note the huge volume over the last >>several trading days. This volume is not coming as it breaks out of a >base, >>but as it accelerates at the top of a run (blowoff activity). Notice that >>yesterday the stock started up but shortly turned down AND it had the >>highest volume of any day since the move began. This was the climactic >day. >>Also notice that it had advanced 60% from a short base in 3 weeks! This >>alone is climactic activity. >> >>The stock had gone from $3 to $20 in a year. Now it is badly bruised and >>typically one can expect these to retrace 50% of the move. So $20 - $3 = >>$17. $17/2 = $8.50. $20 - $8.50 = $11.50. So a retracement to $11.50 is >>not out of the question. Also note that the 200dma is at about $7.50, and >>you have a danger signal once the stock is more than double the 200dma. So >>from $15 on up, the warning light was flashing red. >> >>Congratulations to Tom on picking an excellent exit point! It is hard to >>sell when a stock goes up every day because it feels so good to just sit on >>your hands and watch the pile of money grow. And then when it does >pullback >>like yesterday, it is easy to say, "oh, it deserves a rest here, I'll give >>it a week or two". But climax runs usually don't turn out so benignly >>(although occasionally they do - anything is possible). The pain grows and >>grows as your profits slip away and the stock works its way down. The day >>you are "forced" to sell because you cannot stand the pain any more, >>frequently calls the bottom (or at least a short term one). Better to exit >>a stock that is acting like this, preferably on a day like 02/25 or 02/26 >>when distribution becomes apparent. >> >>PS. This stuff is not hard and fast - nothing in the market is after all. >>There could be some monster news that would make this stock turn on a dime >>and go higher than $20 in the next few days or weeks, but the odds against >>it are about 99.99% IMO. Odds are that it will not pass $20 again for >>months, although I would not rule out a snap back rally after the initial >>sellers are exhausted. And if it bases here in a tight range (20-30%) for >8 >>or 12 weeks and then breaks out, I would probably want to own it then. >> >>PPS. Yesterday would have been a good day to short this stock (the one >>exception I have to not shorting anything above the 50dma. Today is too >>late though IMO. >> >> >>- >> >> > > >- > - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #129 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.