From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1331 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Tuesday, May 1 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1331 In this issue: [CANSLIM] PHM Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List Re: [CANSLIM] Re: To Earl: severe weakness took me out too!] Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI Pullback Re: [CANSLIM] PHM Re: [CANSLIM] Re: To Earl: severe weakness took me out too!] Re: [CANSLIM] PHM Re: [CANSLIM] Re: To Earl: severe weakness took me out too!] Re: [CANSLIM] Re: To Earl: severe weakness took me out too!] Re: [CANSLIM] PHM Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI Pullback Re: [CANSLIM] PIR Nosedive ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 18:38:27 -0700 From: "DiFabio, Nancy" Subject: [CANSLIM] PHM This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand this format, some or all of this message may not be legible. - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C0D2A8.477E88EC Content-Type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Why did PHM come down so hard and fast today? "WorldSecure " made the following annotations on 05/01/01 18:36:39 - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ PLEASE NOTE: This message, including any attachments, may include privileged, confidential and/or inside information. Any distribution or use of this communication by anyone other than the intended recipient(s) is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by replying to this message and then delete it from your system. Thank you. ============================================================================== - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C0D2A8.477E88EC Content-Type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit PHM

Why did PHM come down so hard and fast today?

"WorldSecure <irell.com>" made the following
annotations on 05/01/01 18:36:39
- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PLEASE NOTE: This message, including any attachments, may include privileged, confidential and/or inside information. Any distribution or use of this communication by anyone other than the intended recipient(s) is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by replying to this message and then delete it from your system. Thank you.


==============================================================================

- ------_=_NextPart_001_01C0D2A8.477E88EC-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 21:56:04 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0021_01C0D289.85187920 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable It's a good way to get a lurker to make his first post? Actually, I just figured I would get to the meat of the post, the list = itself, and members would remember for a coupla weeks where the list = comes from, its intention, and my shorthand. But it does work to draw = out the newer members! Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Rick Parsons=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 9:47 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DGO List You get this question all the time, Tom. Why don't you put this = explanation at the top of each list? Rick -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001 4:44 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List "B" for Base, the number following is the nr of weeks it has been = basing, in my opinion. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net ----- Original Message -----=20 From: dannygottlieb=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001 5:19 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List I guess I am getting slow in my old age(47). Tom, what does the = code letter B signify in your list? Danny ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001 1:58 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO List Full list totaled 245, up strongly from last week's 195. Before = that it was 171 and 159. Please remember, this list is my thoughts from just looking at a = six month chart. It is intended as ideas for a watch list. Any comments = like "at pivot" or "still buyable" does not in any way mean I am = suggesting any member should buy the stock. USLB - B1+ RYL - possible handle forming on the cup CPN - B2 IGT - cup and handle, volume declining - my analysis posted = earlier TWRI - broke out Friday on less than ADV from a B4, within 4% of = base, low ADV apparently because most of the issue is locked up (neither = owned by management or funds, they both have 8%) CHS - high handle, sharp decline in volume ESI - short base on base? CPRT - B2 GCO - almost at pivot MKT - B2+ BWS - B7, vol and price spike on Friday after 3 weeks of below = avg volume EME - B2 MINI - B3 DME - B5 UVV - B5 PIR - volatile B3 ACAI - B3+ OFIX - B2 FDO - B5 below the high ISCA - B3- RSG - wedging FDC - B1+ OMG - 3 days of volume, b/o Thu, crossed the pivot Fri, weak = earnings forecast SASOY - B7, low priced SBMC - B3, tight, low vol FFCH - b/o Fri from B4, below pivot MTB - B4 DTE - B3 MATW - b/o Thu from B6, still buyable BOKF - B5 TGT - b/o Fri on lite vol, at the pivot EEI - B2, low price, low vol, already on my watch list BKNG - B7 EDS - B1+ handle on a smooth cup BANR - B3+ Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net =20 - ------=_NextPart_000_0021_01C0D289.85187920 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
It's a good way to get a lurker to make his first=20 post?
 
Actually, I just figured I would get to the meat of = the post,=20 the list itself, and members would remember for a coupla weeks where the = list=20 comes from, its intention, and my shorthand. But it does work to draw = out the=20 newer members!
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Rick Parsons
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com =
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 = 9:47 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DGO = List

You get this question all the time, Tom.  Why = don't you=20 put this explanation at the top of each = list?
 
Rick
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmis= sion.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lis= ts.xmission.com]On=20 Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001 = 4:44=20 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Subject:=20 Re: [CANSLIM] DGO List

"B" for Base, the number following is the nr of = weeks it=20 has been basing, in my opinion.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
 
 
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 dannygottlieb
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com =
Sent: Saturday, April 28, = 2001 5:19=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO = List

I guess I am getting slow in my = old age(47).=20 Tom, what does the code letter B signify in your = list?
 Danny
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Tom=20 Worley
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Saturday, April 28, = 2001 1:58=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] DGO = List

Full list totaled 245, up strongly from last = week's=20 195. Before that it was 171 and 159.
 
Please remember, this list is my thoughts = from just=20 looking at a six month chart. It is intended as ideas for a = watch list.=20 Any comments like "at pivot" or "still buyable" does not in any = way mean=20 I am suggesting any member should buy the stock.
 
USLB - B1+
RYL - possible handle forming on the = cup
CPN - B2
IGT - cup and handle, volume declining = - - my=20 analysis posted earlier
TWRI - broke out Friday on less than ADV = from a B4,=20 within 4% of base, low ADV apparently because most of the issue = is=20 locked up (neither owned by management or funds, they both have=20 8%)
CHS - high handle, sharp decline in=20 volume
ESI - short base on base?
CPRT - B2
GCO - almost at pivot
MKT - B2+
BWS - B7, vol and price spike on Friday = after 3 weeks=20 of below avg volume
EME - B2
MINI - B3
DME - B5
UVV - B5
PIR - volatile B3
ACAI - B3+
OFIX - B2
FDO - B5 below the high
ISCA - B3-
RSG - wedging
FDC - B1+
OMG - 3 days of volume, b/o Thu, crossed the = pivot=20 Fri, weak earnings forecast
SASOY - B7, low priced
SBMC - B3, tight, low vol
FFCH - b/o Fri from B4, below = pivot
MTB - B4
DTE - B3
MATW - b/o Thu from B6, still = buyable
BOKF - B5
TGT - b/o Fri on lite vol, at the = pivot
EEI - B2, low price, low vol, already on my = watch=20 list
BKNG - B7
EDS - B1+ handle on a smooth = cup
BANR - B3+
 
Happy Hunting,
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
 
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0021_01C0D289.85187920-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 19:08:31 -0700 (PDT) From: Kent Norman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: To Earl: severe weakness took me out too!] How about just plain old "lemming mentality". If enough people select a bad stock, the price will still go up. The big names have made so many impressions in minds of "investors" that they buy the household names, good bad or ugly. INTC, ORCL, JNPR, CSCO, DELL .... I just wish I could see the herd coming so I could front run them ;-) Tongue in cheek Kent Norman - --- Fanus wrote: > Interesting observation Tim about CANSLIM being out > of favor in the rally. I > noticed the same thing on my watch list. They seem > to be going down during > the rally. > > Does anyone else notice the same thing? Any > speculation on why that would be? > Could it it be that people tend to forget about > fundamentals during the rally > and is going back to more speculative stocks? > > - Fanus > > "Tim Fisher" wrote: > Out of SGR and SRCL, that is. Anyway, looks like > CANSLIM is out of favor in > an otherwise relatively strong rally, my accounts > actually lost money > yesterday and are in the hole so far today. I > tightened my stops on my > winners to a trailing 10% after getting stopped out > of those two. > > > > Tim Fisher > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > Pacific Fishery Biologists Information > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > ____________________________________________________________________ > Get free email and a permanent address at > http://www.netaddress.com/?N=1 > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices http://auctions.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 19:11:01 -0700 (PDT) From: Kent Norman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI Pullback WONDERFUL QUESTION Dave I have wondered that many times! I have read about a price falling back to the base and giving another chance to buy in. Perhaps it has something to do with how far it falls? If it goes below the former bottom channel perhaps? Just my guess Kent Norman - --- Dave Rubin wrote: > DFXI is back to within 5% of its pivot on lower > volume. Is this a failed BO > in the making or an opportunity to get in? > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices http://auctions.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 22:14:40 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PHM Nancy: There was news on PHM today which, I believe, impacted on the price of the stock. The news caused distribution bigtime (actually yesterdays decline would have caused me to sell-I believe-if I had owned it). The news which made the funds run for the hills, is: Pulte to Buy Del Webb for $1.7 Billion in Stock, Debt Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, May 1 (Bloomberg) -- Pulte Corp. agreed to buy Del Webb Corp., the largest developer of retirement communities, for $1.73 billion in stock and debt to create the largest U.S. homebuilder. Pulte will pay about $730 million in stock, or $39 a share, and assume $1 billion in debt for the Phoenix-based company, known for its Sun City developments. The price is a 15 percent premium to Del Webb's price yesterday. jans In a message dated 5/1/2001 9:42:12 PM Eastern Daylight Time, NDiFabio@irell.com writes: << Why did PHM come down so hard and fast today? >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 20:19:13 -0600 From: esetser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: To Earl: severe weakness took me out too!] After spending some time trying to understand how they generate the rankings and watching the average rank go to the toilet, I have given up on this ranking. In my latest installment, I looked at the half dozen stocks now rated an A and noted that only one or two had fund holdings above 5%. In fact, most of the "As" showed 0% funds on DGO. Somehow, I was disturbed that stocks with no fund ownership were the only ones with good ratings. I've also noticed that a "D" is about average now. Overall, I just don't think this ranking uses the kind of data that I thought it did. I thought they looked closely at funds that were buying vs. selling, but it looks more like they look at the average fund rating of the funds holding the stock. I wonder how you can average a "D" if all the funds average a "C"?? At 02:31 PM 5/1/01 EDT, you wrote: >Et Al. > > I haven't made a systematic study, but has anyone else noticed >(particularly Earl, since I believe he follows the Tues. Institutional data >in IBD) that many of the strongly based stocks (eg. Energy) have "D" or at >the most "C" ratings in Tuesday's Institutional Data in IBD. > > If you have noticed, and this is accurate, what do you, Earl, believe it >portends? To me, it looks as if the institutions believe this is a bear >rally, and so they are selling into strength. > > I could be more certain if IBD told us when the Tues. IBD Institutional >Data is gathered. I believe it is a few months out of date, so I'm not >really certain how to handle that information. To me, the Tues. Inst. data >is more misleading for this reason than it is helpful. This is because the >institutions could now be buying, and the IBD user would believe they are >selling. > > The way I figure is: I look at Tuesday's data and meld it with the A/D >rating, and then hope that this gives me some semblance of an accurate >conclusion. > >jans > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 20:23:07 -0600 From: esetser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PHM Two things happened this week 1 - PHM was specifically downgraded yesterday as a part of a generally negative statement on Builders. Most of the builders were weak, PHM was worse. 2 - Today PHM announced they were buying WBB. As is usually the case, the buyer plummets as the seller flies. Wish I had grabbed WBB instead!!! At 06:38 PM 5/1/01 -0700, you wrote: > Why did PHM come down so hard and fast today? <>" made the following > annotations on 05/01/01 18:36:39 > - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ > PLEASE NOTE: This message, including any attachments, may include >privileged, confidential and/or inside information. Any distribution or >use of this communication by anyone other than the intended recipient(s) is >strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you are not the intended >recipient, please notify the sender by replying to this message and then >delete it from your system. Thank you. > > > ============================================================================== > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 22:36:13 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: To Earl: severe weakness took me out too!] Earl: I agree that it is hard (if not impossible) to make heads or tails of Tuesday's Institutional Sponsorship Ratings (TISRs). According to IBD: TISRs average the 3 year performance of ALL the funds owning the stock-plus it includes the momentum of recent quarters of these funds owning the stock. One shortcoming is that they rank stocks with NO mutual fund ownership as "A". How can a stock which has no fund ownership be qualifed for an "A" rating? Such a thing misleads rather than helps. It would be nice if IBD recognized that fact. Also, IBD doesn't tell you when the ratings are generated. Are they calculated each week, or are they calculated only every several months when the mutuals have to tell the SEC what they are buying and selling? It would be nice if IBD's "Investors Corner" published an article telling its subscribers how to use TISR-and why it is worth a column in Tuesday's stock tables. As it is, I think IBD has a column to fill, so it is filling it with nonsensical data like TISR. It is hard for me to believe that WON is anything but a pitchman (with a good analytical mind, to be sure) when he allows such baggage to be attached to his IBD ship! jans In a message dated 5/1/2001 10:20:22 PM Eastern Daylight Time, esetser@covad.net writes: << After spending some time trying to understand how they generate the rankings and watching the average rank go to the toilet, I have given up on this ranking. In my latest installment, I looked at the half dozen stocks now rated an A and noted that only one or two had fund holdings above 5%. In fact, most of the "As" showed 0% funds on DGO. Somehow, I was disturbed that stocks with no fund ownership were the only ones with good ratings. I've also noticed that a "D" is about average now. Overall, I just don't think this ranking uses the kind of data that I thought it did. I thought they looked closely at funds that were buying vs. selling, but it looks more like they look at the average fund rating of the funds holding the stock. I wonder how you can average a "D" if all the funds average a "C"?? >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 23:20:05 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: To Earl: severe weakness took me out too!] I think the logic behind a stock with no funds ownership getting an "A" is that any, and I mean any (regardless of grading), fund buying will likely strengthen the stock price. And it's not diluted down, at least initially, by any weak funds ownership. I think funds all have to report their entire holdings every quarter (hence the quarterly "window dressing" effect), but I think some funds are now reporting monthly, or at least releasing their top holdings either online or otherwise, each month. As a result, we may now be seeing some limited monthly "window dressing". I saw this same process with quarterly "triple witching" on options, where so many got tired of the extreme volatility on Friday that they started making their adjustments on Thursday, then Wednesday, then Tuesday, until it became a more subdued week long process. I always assume that funds ownership data is stale, anywhere from a week to several months. I look at it, I consider it, but am perfectly happy buying without their company, at least when I buy. I love their company later on. I am paying far more attention to the venture capital investing, and pension fund managers buying, than to the mutual funds. They tend to report closer to real time, so easier to understand with relation to price and volume moves. And I feel the pension fund mgrs at least partially reflect the investing thinking of the funds. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 10:36 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: To Earl: severe weakness took me out too!] Earl: I agree that it is hard (if not impossible) to make heads or tails of Tuesday's Institutional Sponsorship Ratings (TISRs). According to IBD: TISRs average the 3 year performance of ALL the funds owning the stock-plus it includes the momentum of recent quarters of these funds owning the stock. One shortcoming is that they rank stocks with NO mutual fund ownership as "A". How can a stock which has no fund ownership be qualifed for an "A" rating? Such a thing misleads rather than helps. It would be nice if IBD recognized that fact. Also, IBD doesn't tell you when the ratings are generated. Are they calculated each week, or are they calculated only every several months when the mutuals have to tell the SEC what they are buying and selling? It would be nice if IBD's "Investors Corner" published an article telling its subscribers how to use TISR-and why it is worth a column in Tuesday's stock tables. As it is, I think IBD has a column to fill, so it is filling it with nonsensical data like TISR. It is hard for me to believe that WON is anything but a pitchman (with a good analytical mind, to be sure) when he allows such baggage to be attached to his IBD ship! jans In a message dated 5/1/2001 10:20:22 PM Eastern Daylight Time, esetser@covad.net writes: << After spending some time trying to understand how they generate the rankings and watching the average rank go to the toilet, I have given up on this ranking. In my latest installment, I looked at the half dozen stocks now rated an A and noted that only one or two had fund holdings above 5%. In fact, most of the "As" showed 0% funds on DGO. Somehow, I was disturbed that stocks with no fund ownership were the only ones with good ratings. I've also noticed that a "D" is about average now. Overall, I just don't think this ranking uses the kind of data that I thought it did. I thought they looked closely at funds that were buying vs. selling, but it looks more like they look at the average fund rating of the funds holding the stock. I wonder how you can average a "D" if all the funds average a "C"?? >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 23:35:53 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PHM The major effect was without doubt the buyout offer of Del Webb. But add another factor to the whole group, today's Construction Report while up showed a 0.7% drop in home construction spending. With interest rates the way they are, and a fair chance that rates could fall even further, I don't thing the new home construction boom is over, but it definitely appears to me to be slowing. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net - ----- Original Message ----- From: esetser To: Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 10:23 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PHM Two things happened this week 1 - PHM was specifically downgraded yesterday as a part of a generally negative statement on Builders. Most of the builders were weak, PHM was worse. 2 - Today PHM announced they were buying WBB. As is usually the case, the buyer plummets as the seller flies. Wish I had grabbed WBB instead!!! At 06:38 PM 5/1/01 -0700, you wrote: > Why did PHM come down so hard and fast today? <>" made the following > annotations on 05/01/01 18:36:39 > - ----------------------------------------------------------------- - ------------- > PLEASE NOTE: This message, including any attachments, may include >privileged, confidential and/or inside information. Any distribution or >use of this communication by anyone other than the intended recipient(s) is >strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you are not the intended >recipient, please notify the sender by replying to this message and then >delete it from your system. Thank you. > > > ================================================================= ============= > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 23:48:58 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI Pullback Dave and Kent, I definitely would consider it as a failed breakout, as both the volume and price action previously should meet anyone's criteria as a "breakout". What to do now, and why did it fail? Today's volume at over 3X ADV, and assuming there was no news on the company or sector/group, is still serious. Maybe it just got infested recently with a lot of day traders. Or maybe the bottom fishers who bot in the bottom of the cup, or up along the right side of the cup, got tired of waiting. In any event, it now has several possibilities: resume a fresh b/o; base, fall further. Until the stock makes up its mind, it's not a buying opportunity. It does have excellent CS qualities, as well as excellent sequential and year to year comparisons. So I doubt it's done, but should be on your watch list rather than a "hot buy" list. Let it base, if it's going to do that, or let it b/o again on confirmatory volume. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net - ----- Original Message ----- From: Kent Norman To: Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 10:11 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DFXI Pullback WONDERFUL QUESTION Dave I have wondered that many times! I have read about a price falling back to the base and giving another chance to buy in. Perhaps it has something to do with how far it falls? If it goes below the former bottom channel perhaps? Just my guess Kent Norman - --- Dave Rubin wrote: > DFXI is back to within 5% of its pivot on lower > volume. Is this a failed BO > in the making or an opportunity to get in? > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices http://auctions.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 23:55:35 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR Nosedive I feel the "wide and loose" pattern from early March to early April fails to confirm the cup. For me, this is just too volatile to call a handle, unless I compress it with weekly five year charts. On the other hand, the tight base, on declining volume, that formed the base during the last week of March into the first week of April, seems to have given a weak confirmation of the c&h pattern. It is, of course, somewhat weaker by only being 2 weeks long. But that's not too bad for a handle, compared to a simple flat base, where you want 6-8 weeks. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net - ----- Original Message ----- From: Hugh Fader To: Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 8:17 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PIR Nosedive Tom, I see a cup going from 11/00 to 3/01, then a handle from 3/01 to 4/01. It is admittedly wide and loose. Am I missing something that invalidates this? - - Hugh - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Monday, April 30, 2001 10:48 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR Nosedive Hi Hugh, Maybe it's just definitions differences, but I don't see a b/o on 4/10, by then it was already extended. The only b/o I see recently is on 4/5, when at least it had a short two week base to operate off of, and volume was better than 1.5 ADV. By 4/10, not only was there no base, but it was nearly 10% over that short base. The only thing that marks 4/10 as a "b/o" is that it hit a new high (thereby crossing the pivot, in at least one sense). But it takes more than simply making a new high to be a b/o, you need some kind of basing formation, and by 4/10 that was no longer evident. Had I been trying to buy this one, and failed to catch it around 13, I would have already saw it leave the train station by 4/10 and been looking for the next ride. This one is tricky, in that with home sales (both new and used) so strong, and rates falling, it stands to reason that retail companies selling home furnishings, and home improvement products, stand to see robust sales in the future. As to additional "rules" that would have warned you to stay away, start with the earnings forecast for this year of only 10% growth. That right there stops it being CANSLIM. Me personally, I don't like companies with weird fiscal years (this one ended Feb). If you can't end it on 12/31, at least end it on a normal calendar quarter so you're in the cycle with everyone else. Heck, even Japan manages to have all their companies close their year March 31 together. Bottom line for me is that in this highly volatile environment, where virtually every company big and small has warned they won't meet forecasts, the key is not so much what they did last (1st) qtr as investors only expect bad news there. The key is what they say about the future. I have seen numerous companies report above expectations, esp where the expectations were recently lowered, but their doom and gloom forecast for the rest of the year, or even next (2nd) qtr, was negative, and the stock was trashed. Surprisingly, I have also seen companies beat the 1st qtr forecasts/estimates, and speak well of the rest of the year, and still get trounced. Mostly happens on a bad day, but I've seen it on good days as well. Guess you just can't please all the people all the time. I look at the charts of every company I can find that says it will meet or beat expectations, regardless of whether it went up or down on the news. So far, I have not added many companies to my watch list with this method. Almost every one I faulted for some reason, often low RS. The only place I still am able to consistently find viable candidates is from the new highs stocks. And then only if I really like the chart, as well as all the fundies. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net - ----- Original Message ----- From: Hugh Fader To: CANSLIM List (E-mail) Sent: Monday, April 30, 2001 8:50 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] PIR Nosedive PIR revised estimates today and took a dump. Fortunately I don't own it, but am looking for a lesson. It broke out on 4/10 on double average volume. Just buying in the first place would violate some rules: price < $16, +12% EPS last quarter. Assuming you bought on the breakout, what do you see in the action following this that might have led you to sell? Add to my list below: 1. First day after breakout price fell below pivot on heavy volume. Closed at its low. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1331 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.