From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1332 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, May 2 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1332 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] To Earl: severe weakness took me out too! SASOY (was Re: [CANSLIM] WLSN broke out on a large volume increase today.) Re: [CANSLIM] PHM [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts [CANSLIM] low vol handle Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts Re: [CANSLIM] low vol handle Re: [CANSLIM] low vol handle Re: [CANSLIM] low vol handle ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 00:01:28 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] To Earl: severe weakness took me out too! Tim, I can understand how SRCL stopped you out, but I don't understand SGR. Were you using less than a 15% trailing stop / still in an entry point stop of 8%? I don't think CANSLIM is so much out of favor as we are seeing an inflow of big money chasing the big names that appear cheap. VIX is down, which may be eventually helping refocus on earnings growth rates. Fundies win out eventually, even in the midst of euphoria. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tim Fisher To: Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 10:49 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] To Earl: severe weakness took me out too! Out of SGR and SRCL, that is. Anyway, looks like CANSLIM is out of favor in an otherwise relatively strong rally, my accounts actually lost money yesterday and are in the hole so far today. I tightened my stops on my winners to a trailing 10% after getting stopped out of those two. Tim Fisher Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site Pacific Fishery Biologists Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 00:25:55 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: SASOY (was Re: [CANSLIM] WLSN broke out on a large volume increase today.) Hi Steff, Not sure if you are referring to my latest DGO List, or my previously posted watch list, since SASOY made both. If the DGO List, I do no due diligence on it before posting, it is simply a humanly reviewed list of charts based on them being in WON's Daily Graphs, having both RS and EPS of 80 or better as of Friday, and having been within or at new highs during the prior week. I have only recently started paying more attention to cash flow levels since IBD focused on it. Before that, I mostly considered it one of the Motley Fool's more esoteric criteria, and only noted it in passing. So don't know about recent trends, but do see that at $0.97 currently, it still surpasses last year's earnings of $0.91/share, so believe that remains a positive. Obviously, future quarters could change that. My interpretation of this stock? As always, very opinionated, especially when it comes to my own investing. And very subjective, I might add. Low priced (a negative), and very thinly traded (also a negative) for such a large cap stock (market cap is $5.58 BILLION, with an issue and float of over 600 million shares, but an ADV of only 107,600 shares. This alone makes it too risky for most CANSLIMers or investors in general, and certainly not without some research to understand why there is only a 1% funds ownership, and virtually none by management. It's a foreign stock (S. African) which introduces added risk with currency exchange rates, but it's in the oil products sector (currently hot, GRS 95 - Oilgas marketing refining). Political climate appears stable for the moment, but that is subject to rapid change. Five year earnings growth is only 1%, but for present year forecasted to grow earnings 63%. But next year's forecast dismal, but that seems to be the case for most of the oil related stocks. Trailing PE still quite low, even for the oil producers, at 8, and projected PE is even lower at 6.2. ROE decent at 24%. Timeliness and A/D both only a "C". Bottom line, struck me as an undervalued oil related stock, low priced, and worth watching. Probably will do nothing, and I will eventually delete it from my watch list as too boring. Too many questions and negatives does not help it, in my estimate. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net - ----- Original Message ----- From: jsteff To: Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 10:22 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WLSN broke out on a large volume increase today. Tom I was perusing your list and come upon SASOY. I was doing some research and saw on a website (I don't remember which one) that the recent(past 12 mths) cash flow/share was extremely low compared to past few years. Have you seen this? Also will you provide a bit of information pertaining to your interpretation on this company? Thanks Steff - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Worley" To: Sent: Monday, April 30, 2001 11:13 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] WLSN broke out on a large volume increase today. > Unfortunately, Ian, only speculation on how the 1st qtr may turn > out, or more importantly how investors, esp institutionals, will > react to it. Looks like this company loses money for three qtrs, > then makes it all in the 4th qtr. I can recall my wife and I > exchanging leather jackets during the post-Christmas sales, so > understand that. > > So maybe the 1st qtr they will lose less than the 5 cents they > lost last year. But the low trailing PE again, like PIR, suggests > that expectations are not very high. And with two of the three > months of Q2 sales already known, still expectation is not > driving the price higher (if you don't count today). With their > "big" quarter now out of the way, where's the excitement to drive > expectations for another nine months. That's one of the problems > with cyclical stocks heavily focused on one or two qtrs. > > Chart wise, I just see the current base from which it broke > today. The longer term pattern, esp in light of all the other > background noise ("M", economics, etc) only seem to confuse the > picture. If this is the handle to a cup, then at seven weeks, it > is suspiciously long. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Ian > To: > Sent: Monday, April 30, 2001 5:00 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] WLSN broke out on a large volume increase > today. > > > I see a nice cup from late August to early March, followed by a > shallow > handle. The pivot point was $20 1/8, and there was a nice window > early this > morning to get in there. As an added bonus, it also moved past > its 52-week > high of $21 1/2 today. Volume was impressive. > > They have announced sales results for Feb and Mar (up 25% and > 34%), so > perhaps they will have a strong Q and not lose money. WLSN is in > an > ultra-lumpy business, so sequential numbers mean nothing, but the > year-over-year #'s look good - and the P/E is less than 10. > > We'll see. > > Cheers, > > Ian > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 00:29:08 EDT From: GOOWLS@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PHM In a message dated 5/1/01 8:42:12 PM Central Daylight Time, NDiFabio@irell.com writes: PHM completed an Evening Star (Japanese Candlestick terminology) on Monday 4/30. The doji last Friday was a warning signal that the recent uptrend was running out of steam. One possible exit strategy when you have a nice run followed by a doji is to tighten your trailing sell stop to just below the low of the doji. Most of the time if the price dips below the sell stop, a new base will need to be formed before that stock can advance and the just completed pattern will be the left lip of the new base. Occasionally the uptrend will continue and you can capture a little more profit before the intermediate move is over. Mike Goode - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 20:33:11 -0600 From: esetser Subject: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts First, I have had a couple of people respond to my Clearstation "sell" notifications here. For those who didn't know, my original message wasn't posted here, and it basically said I was dumped out of several stocks. Now, back to our regularly scheduled program..... Ouch. I went into this week with 3 Home Builders, 2 other stocks, and added my last position in PPDI yesterday morning. At that point, 4 of 5 stocks were up nicely, and I was thinking maybe this rally would be different. Here we are about 1 1/2 trading day later, and I've been stopped out of 4 positions, and lost another 4% of my funds (more or less). I got burned 2-fold. I had 3 Home Builders, and all 3 went down strongly on Monday and Tuesday. One, MDC, was up for a while today, but then plummeted. In the end, I took losses on all three as they hit my stops. Overall, I'm very surprised to see an industry group that is ranked #1, and has 5-10 potential CANSLIM breakouts in about a week fail so strongly. Is this something that happens to the top group very often? Have others witnessed this kind of meltdown very often? My other position was PPDI. It had moved up nicely late last week, and then seemed to be resting a bit just above the pivot. It looked ready to move higher, especially with its group moving up rapidly, so I gave it a shot. It dropped rapidly today and I sold out as soon as I saw the drop (about 10%). After looking closer, I found that the stock had moved up on the earnings annoucement last week, but there was a VERY UNUSUAL dividend announced, 1 share/share owned. In other words, everyone who owned the stock as of Thursday (I think) gets an extra share in a few weeks. At that point, anyone who wanted to could sell all their holdings at a new high, and still have the same amount of stock in 3 weeks. Given this, there seems to be a lot of downward pressure on the stock. I mean, the value of last week's holders doubled instantly. I expect HUGE downward pressure on the stock over the next few weeks, and today was an example. This is clearly my fault for not reading the news before buying, but has anyone seen this kind of dividend before? Is it likely that the stock price would hold up to a "double"? This seems really unusual to me. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 23:16:11 -0700 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts Earl, I'm still holding MDC (though shakey) for a zero profit. I saw it dive today but use end of day closing prices and mental stops for my entries and exits so I was spared the larger loss. Tommorrow my change that (!). I get the feeling the home builders and others like gaming (ally igt etc) may have seen their short term best. Maybe now the market will start to embrace the tech stocks again. I've never felt that the above mentioned stocks would be the new leaders though I thought they might gain a bit more for the short term Guess it's time to see which way the market is going to go again. - -Bill Triffet - ----- Original Message ----- From: "esetser" To: Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 7:33 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts snip > I had 3 Home Builders, and all 3 went down strongly on Monday and Tuesday. > One, MDC, was up for a while today, but then plummeted. In the end, I took > losses on all three as they hit my stops. Overall, I'm very surprised to > see an industry group that is ranked #1, and has 5-10 potential CANSLIM > breakouts in about a week fail so strongly. Is this something that happens > to the top group very often? Have others witnessed this kind of meltdown > very often? snip - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 00:39:13 -0700 From: "Mike Lucero" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts I bought PPDI last Wednesday after it broke out and placed my sell stop at 51.75, so I'm still in. I would have sold at least half if it had closed below the pivot, instead of right on it. It sounds like a normal stock split, which doesn't increase anyone's value. I believe if you sell now, your stock dividend will go with the shares you sold. Mike - ----- Original Message ----- From: "esetser" To: Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 7:33 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts > First, I have had a couple of people respond to my Clearstation "sell" > notifications here. For those who didn't know, my original message wasn't > posted here, and it basically said I was dumped out of several stocks. > > Now, back to our regularly scheduled program..... > > > Ouch. I went into this week with 3 Home Builders, 2 other stocks, and > added my last position in PPDI yesterday morning. At that point, 4 of 5 > stocks were up nicely, and I was thinking maybe this rally would be > different. Here we are about 1 1/2 trading day later, and I've been > stopped out of 4 positions, and lost another 4% of my funds (more or less). > I got burned 2-fold. > > I had 3 Home Builders, and all 3 went down strongly on Monday and Tuesday. > One, MDC, was up for a while today, but then plummeted. In the end, I took > losses on all three as they hit my stops. Overall, I'm very surprised to > see an industry group that is ranked #1, and has 5-10 potential CANSLIM > breakouts in about a week fail so strongly. Is this something that happens > to the top group very often? Have others witnessed this kind of meltdown > very often? > > My other position was PPDI. It had moved up nicely late last week, and > then seemed to be resting a bit just above the pivot. It looked ready to > move higher, especially with its group moving up rapidly, so I gave it a > shot. It dropped rapidly today and I sold out as soon as I saw the drop > (about 10%). After looking closer, I found that the stock had moved up on > the earnings annoucement last week, but there was a VERY UNUSUAL dividend > announced, 1 share/share owned. In other words, everyone who owned the > stock as of Thursday (I think) gets an extra share in a few weeks. At that > point, anyone who wanted to could sell all their holdings at a new high, > and still have the same amount of stock in 3 weeks. Given this, there > seems to be a lot of downward pressure on the stock. I mean, the value of > last week's holders doubled instantly. I expect HUGE downward pressure on > the stock over the next few weeks, and today was an example. This is > clearly my fault for not reading the news before buying, but has anyone > seen this kind of dividend before? Is it likely that the stock price would > hold up to a "double"? This seems really unusual to me. > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 07:24:26 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts You are completely correct, Mike. Earl is confusing a cash dividend, where the record date of April 27 means something, with a stock split (in this case called by the company a dividend, but means the same). On a cash dividend, the closing price of the stock will be adjusted downward by the amount of the dividend once it goes ex-dividend on record date. On a split, the price will be adjusted downward by the ratio of the split (in this case it's a 2 for 1 split, so the price will be cut in half) on the pay or distribution date of May 11. Up until then, it trades at pre-split prices, and anyone buying or holding will get the split shares. After that, it will trade at half the price, and a buyer is not entitled to the split shares. I suspect companies of using the term dividend instead of split as thinking they can fool shareholders into thinking they are being given something for nothing. Usually happens with younger companies that are not paying a real dividend (in cash). By the time they mature enough to pay a true dividend, they usually have learned the difference. I see nothing obvious in the earnings release to have caused the selloff. Since it's already two weeks old, I doubt that is the cause. Possibly some analyst downgraded it, or lowered earnings estimates, or set a lowered price target. Or maybe there was bad news for a competitor, or a company they do business with. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net - ----- Original Message ----- From: Mike Lucero To: Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 3:39 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts I bought PPDI last Wednesday after it broke out and placed my sell stop at 51.75, so I'm still in. I would have sold at least half if it had closed below the pivot, instead of right on it. It sounds like a normal stock split, which doesn't increase anyone's value. I believe if you sell now, your stock dividend will go with the shares you sold. Mike - ----- Original Message ----- From: "esetser" To: Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 7:33 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts > First, I have had a couple of people respond to my Clearstation "sell" > notifications here. For those who didn't know, my original message wasn't > posted here, and it basically said I was dumped out of several stocks. > > Now, back to our regularly scheduled program..... > > > Ouch. I went into this week with 3 Home Builders, 2 other stocks, and > added my last position in PPDI yesterday morning. At that point, 4 of 5 > stocks were up nicely, and I was thinking maybe this rally would be > different. Here we are about 1 1/2 trading day later, and I've been > stopped out of 4 positions, and lost another 4% of my funds (more or less). > I got burned 2-fold. > > I had 3 Home Builders, and all 3 went down strongly on Monday and Tuesday. > One, MDC, was up for a while today, but then plummeted. In the end, I took > losses on all three as they hit my stops. Overall, I'm very surprised to > see an industry group that is ranked #1, and has 5-10 potential CANSLIM > breakouts in about a week fail so strongly. Is this something that happens > to the top group very often? Have others witnessed this kind of meltdown > very often? > > My other position was PPDI. It had moved up nicely late last week, and > then seemed to be resting a bit just above the pivot. It looked ready to > move higher, especially with its group moving up rapidly, so I gave it a > shot. It dropped rapidly today and I sold out as soon as I saw the drop > (about 10%). After looking closer, I found that the stock had moved up on > the earnings annoucement last week, but there was a VERY UNUSUAL dividend > announced, 1 share/share owned. In other words, everyone who owned the > stock as of Thursday (I think) gets an extra share in a few weeks. At that > point, anyone who wanted to could sell all their holdings at a new high, > and still have the same amount of stock in 3 weeks. Given this, there > seems to be a lot of downward pressure on the stock. I mean, the value of > last week's holders doubled instantly. I expect HUGE downward pressure on > the stock over the next few weeks, and today was an example. This is > clearly my fault for not reading the news before buying, but has anyone > seen this kind of dividend before? Is it likely that the stock price would > hold up to a "double"? This seems really unusual to me. > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 02 May 2001 07:00:59 -0600 From: esetser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts OK, so it really is a split and not a dividend? The company announcement really confused me on this one. At 07:24 AM 5/2/01 -0400, you wrote: >You are completely correct, Mike. Earl is confusing a cash >dividend, where the record date of April 27 means something, with >a stock split (in this case called by the company a dividend, but >means the same). > >On a cash dividend, the closing price of the stock will be >adjusted downward by the amount of the dividend once it goes >ex-dividend on record date. On a split, the price will be >adjusted downward by the ratio of the split (in this case it's a >2 for 1 split, so the price will be cut in half) on the pay or >distribution date of May 11. > >Up until then, it trades at pre-split prices, and anyone buying >or holding will get the split shares. After that, it will trade >at half the price, and a buyer is not entitled to the split >shares. > >I suspect companies of using the term dividend instead of split >as thinking they can fool shareholders into thinking they are >being given something for nothing. Usually happens with younger >companies that are not paying a real dividend (in cash). By the >time they mature enough to pay a true dividend, they usually have >learned the difference. > >I see nothing obvious in the earnings release to have caused the >selloff. Since it's already two weeks old, I doubt that is the >cause. Possibly some analyst downgraded it, or lowered earnings >estimates, or set a lowered price target. Or maybe there was bad >news for a competitor, or a company they do business with. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Mike Lucero >To: >Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 3:39 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts > > >I bought PPDI last Wednesday after it broke out and placed my >sell stop at >51.75, so I'm still in. I would have sold at least half if it had >closed >below the pivot, instead of right on it. It sounds like a normal >stock >split, which doesn't increase anyone's value. I believe if you >sell now, >your stock dividend will go with the shares you sold. > >Mike >----- Original Message ----- >From: "esetser" >To: >Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 7:33 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts > > >> First, I have had a couple of people respond to my Clearstation >"sell" >> notifications here. For those who didn't know, my original >message wasn't >> posted here, and it basically said I was dumped out of several >stocks. >> >> Now, back to our regularly scheduled program..... >> >> >> Ouch. I went into this week with 3 Home Builders, 2 other >stocks, and >> added my last position in PPDI yesterday morning. At that >point, 4 of 5 >> stocks were up nicely, and I was thinking maybe this rally >would be >> different. Here we are about 1 1/2 trading day later, and I've >been >> stopped out of 4 positions, and lost another 4% of my funds >(more or >less). >> I got burned 2-fold. >> >> I had 3 Home Builders, and all 3 went down strongly on Monday >and Tuesday. >> One, MDC, was up for a while today, but then plummeted. In the >end, I >took >> losses on all three as they hit my stops. Overall, I'm very >surprised to >> see an industry group that is ranked #1, and has 5-10 potential >CANSLIM >> breakouts in about a week fail so strongly. Is this something >that >happens >> to the top group very often? Have others witnessed this kind >of meltdown >> very often? >> >> My other position was PPDI. It had moved up nicely late last >week, and >> then seemed to be resting a bit just above the pivot. It >looked ready to >> move higher, especially with its group moving up rapidly, so I >gave it a >> shot. It dropped rapidly today and I sold out as soon as I saw >the drop >> (about 10%). After looking closer, I found that the stock had >moved up on >> the earnings annoucement last week, but there was a VERY >UNUSUAL dividend >> announced, 1 share/share owned. In other words, everyone who >owned the >> stock as of Thursday (I think) gets an extra share in a few >weeks. At >that >> point, anyone who wanted to could sell all their holdings at a >new high, >> and still have the same amount of stock in 3 weeks. Given >this, there >> seems to be a lot of downward pressure on the stock. I mean, >the value of >> last week's holders doubled instantly. I expect HUGE downward >pressure on >> the stock over the next few weeks, and today was an example. >This is >> clearly my fault for not reading the news before buying, but >has anyone >> seen this kind of dividend before? Is it likely that the stock >price >would >> hold up to a "double"? This seems really unusual to me. >> >> - >> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. >> > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 08:14:57 -0500 From: "Norman" Subject: [CANSLIM] low vol handle OK, for my continuing education, why is a low vol handle superior/desirable? If the point of forming a handle is to let those who bot near the previous high get out, wouldn't we want to see a lot of selling by those folks. In addition, wouldn't the selling of those who bot the bottom, combined with the selling of those who bot the last high (and want to break even) make for good vol near the pivot (=handle area)? Norman Boyd theboyd@tisd.net - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 09:24:33 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts Don't worry, Earl, it's a perfectly normal 2:1 split from what I read. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net - ----- Original Message ----- From: esetser To: Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 9:00 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts OK, so it really is a split and not a dividend? The company announcement really confused me on this one. At 07:24 AM 5/2/01 -0400, you wrote: >You are completely correct, Mike. Earl is confusing a cash >dividend, where the record date of April 27 means something, with >a stock split (in this case called by the company a dividend, but >means the same). > >On a cash dividend, the closing price of the stock will be >adjusted downward by the amount of the dividend once it goes >ex-dividend on record date. On a split, the price will be >adjusted downward by the ratio of the split (in this case it's a >2 for 1 split, so the price will be cut in half) on the pay or >distribution date of May 11. > >Up until then, it trades at pre-split prices, and anyone buying >or holding will get the split shares. After that, it will trade >at half the price, and a buyer is not entitled to the split >shares. > >I suspect companies of using the term dividend instead of split >as thinking they can fool shareholders into thinking they are >being given something for nothing. Usually happens with younger >companies that are not paying a real dividend (in cash). By the >time they mature enough to pay a true dividend, they usually have >learned the difference. > >I see nothing obvious in the earnings release to have caused the >selloff. Since it's already two weeks old, I doubt that is the >cause. Possibly some analyst downgraded it, or lowered earnings >estimates, or set a lowered price target. Or maybe there was bad >news for a competitor, or a company they do business with. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Mike Lucero >To: >Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 3:39 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts > > >I bought PPDI last Wednesday after it broke out and placed my >sell stop at >51.75, so I'm still in. I would have sold at least half if it had >closed >below the pivot, instead of right on it. It sounds like a normal >stock >split, which doesn't increase anyone's value. I believe if you >sell now, >your stock dividend will go with the shares you sold. > >Mike >----- Original Message ----- >From: "esetser" >To: >Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 7:33 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Ouch, that hurts > > >> First, I have had a couple of people respond to my Clearstation >"sell" >> notifications here. For those who didn't know, my original >message wasn't >> posted here, and it basically said I was dumped out of several >stocks. >> >> Now, back to our regularly scheduled program..... >> >> >> Ouch. I went into this week with 3 Home Builders, 2 other >stocks, and >> added my last position in PPDI yesterday morning. At that >point, 4 of 5 >> stocks were up nicely, and I was thinking maybe this rally >would be >> different. Here we are about 1 1/2 trading day later, and I've >been >> stopped out of 4 positions, and lost another 4% of my funds >(more or >less). >> I got burned 2-fold. >> >> I had 3 Home Builders, and all 3 went down strongly on Monday >and Tuesday. >> One, MDC, was up for a while today, but then plummeted. In the >end, I >took >> losses on all three as they hit my stops. Overall, I'm very >surprised to >> see an industry group that is ranked #1, and has 5-10 potential >CANSLIM >> breakouts in about a week fail so strongly. Is this something >that >happens >> to the top group very often? Have others witnessed this kind >of meltdown >> very often? >> >> My other position was PPDI. It had moved up nicely late last >week, and >> then seemed to be resting a bit just above the pivot. It >looked ready to >> move higher, especially with its group moving up rapidly, so I >gave it a >> shot. It dropped rapidly today and I sold out as soon as I saw >the drop >> (about 10%). After looking closer, I found that the stock had >moved up on >> the earnings annoucement last week, but there was a VERY >UNUSUAL dividend >> announced, 1 share/share owned. In other words, everyone who >owned the >> stock as of Thursday (I think) gets an extra share in a few >weeks. At >that >> point, anyone who wanted to could sell all their holdings at a >new high, >> and still have the same amount of stock in 3 weeks. Given >this, there >> seems to be a lot of downward pressure on the stock. I mean, >the value of >> last week's holders doubled instantly. I expect HUGE downward >pressure on >> the stock over the next few weeks, and today was an example. >This is >> clearly my fault for not reading the news before buying, but >has anyone >> seen this kind of dividend before? Is it likely that the stock >price >would >> hold up to a "double"? This seems really unusual to me. >> >> - >> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. >> > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 09:29:55 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] low vol handle Assuming that the handle forms close to the left rim of the cup, and that the left rim was also the prior high, then I would expect volume as the handle begins to form. As it gets out into the second week of the handle, I look for the volume to decrease well below ADV, indicating that the wave of selling (from both sources you mention) is over. That's when the likelihood of a b/o begins to get serious. If the handle forms measurably below the prior high / left rim, then the volume may only come from those who bot the bottom or right side of the cup. This may warn you of further resistance as it moves up to the price of the left rim. That's why I only review (for my personal lists) stocks hitting new highs. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net - ----- Original Message ----- From: Norman To: Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 9:14 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] low vol handle OK, for my continuing education, why is a low vol handle superior/desirable? If the point of forming a handle is to let those who bot near the previous high get out, wouldn't we want to see a lot of selling by those folks. In addition, wouldn't the selling of those who bot the bottom, combined with the selling of those who bot the last high (and want to break even) make for good vol near the pivot (=handle area)? Norman Boyd theboyd@tisd.net - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 09:31:44 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] low vol handle Norman: Low volume indicates there are no longer weak hands (individual investors) looking to sell. The premise of the handle (low volume and a relatively tight range) is that only strong hands (institutions and some individuals) now control the stock, and they are not looking to sell. Strong hands don't sell unless there is a good analytical reason. That's why WON emphasizes CANSLIM fundamentals (eg: hi ratings in EPS, RS, A/D, Current and Yearly Earnings). Why doesn't HIGH VOLUME and a tight range (or slightly declining handle or wide range) demonstrate that there are no more weak hands? Because, the tamping of volume in a tight range CONFIRMS that there is likely to be no more selling. The handle signifies, not that you want to see a lot of selling, but rather that there is no (or precious little) selling left to be done. The CANSLIM rating then tell you that this is a good stock; and when the rises above pivot point on high volume (12.5 cents above the BreakOut), this confirms that the stock is being strongly bought. jans In a message dated 5/2/2001 9:17:09 AM Eastern Daylight Time, theboyd@tisd.net writes: << OK, for my continuing education, why is a low vol handle superior/desirable? If the point of forming a handle is to let those who bot near the previous high get out, wouldn't we want to see a lot of selling by those folks. In addition, wouldn't the selling of those who bot the bottom, combined with the selling of those who bot the last high (and want to break even) make for good vol near the pivot (=handle area)? >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 08:49:16 -0500 From: "Norman" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] low vol handle Thanks Jans, Tom. That's the kind of discussion I was looking for. I mostly understood, from HTMMIS, the whys and wherefors but another viewpoint always seems to make things clearer. Now to find such a beast :-) Norm - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 8:31 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] low vol handle > Norman: > > Low volume indicates there are no longer weak hands (individual > investors) looking to sell. The premise of the handle (low volume and a > relatively tight range) is that only strong hands (institutions and some > individuals) now control the stock, and they are not looking to sell. Strong > hands don't sell unless there is a good analytical reason. That's why WON > emphasizes CANSLIM fundamentals (eg: hi ratings in EPS, RS, A/D, Current and > Yearly Earnings). > > Why doesn't HIGH VOLUME and a tight range (or slightly declining handle > or wide range) demonstrate that there are no more weak hands? Because, the > tamping of volume in a tight range CONFIRMS that there is likely to be no > more selling. The handle signifies, not that you want to see a lot of > selling, but rather that there is no (or precious little) selling left to be > done. The CANSLIM rating then tell you that this is a good stock; and when > the rises above pivot point on high volume (12.5 cents above the BreakOut), > this confirms that the stock is being strongly bought. > > jans > > > In a message dated 5/2/2001 9:17:09 AM Eastern Daylight Time, > theboyd@tisd.net writes: > > << OK, for my continuing education, why is a low vol handle > superior/desirable? > If the point of forming a handle is to let those who bot near the previous > high get out, wouldn't we want to see a lot of selling by those folks. In > addition, wouldn't the selling of those who bot the bottom, combined with > the selling of those who bot the last high (and want to break even) make for > good vol near the pivot (=handle area)? > >> > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1332 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.