From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1393 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, May 23 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1393 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] COCO - RIP Re: [CANSLIM] IGT Re: [CANSLIM] COCO - RIP RE: [CANSLIM] MSS RE: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades Re: [CANSLIM] SJT Sloping handle ?? Re: [CANSLIM] SJT Sloping handle ?? RE: [CANSLIM] COCO - RIP RE: [CANSLIM] PDII Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades Re: [CANSLIM] SJT Sloping handle ?? [CANSLIM] COCO - beating a dead horse Re: [CANSLIM] COCO - beating a dead horse Re: [CANSLIM] COCO - beating a dead horse Re: [CANSLIM] COCO - beating a dead horse Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 09:04:34 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] COCO - RIP Again, did you know 3 months ago that you would be better off in index funds? No. If you think that now, why not put some of that cash into VFINX then? Diversification is king. I am not nearly 100% in CANSLIM stocks, and I don't think anyone should be, unless their accounts are funded with "play money" and they can afford to lose any of their capital. FYI, I am spectacularly ahead, and so should most on this list be, at least for the past month. The CANSLIM parts of my accounts are killing the index fund parts! On 08:40 AM 5/23/01, Sisyphus Said: >I'm new to this list. Y'all look like a dedicated and knowledgeable >bunch. I'm glad I found you. > >I'm with you. I have been stopped out several times during the past >month...COCO, PPDI, CHIC, BZH. I suppose I shouldn't be *too* miffed >about this, since being stopped out has kept me ahead, but certainly not >spectacularly ahead. I would have have been much better off sinking the >money into an index fund or something than playing the CANSLIM game, so >whether I should be or not, I'm peeved! > >John > >*********** REPLY SEPARATOR *********** > >On 5/23/2001 at 11:21 AM Dave Rubin wrote: > > >Another breakout bites the dust. Took a 4% loss on this one. > > > >I don't know about everyone else but this has been a frustrating time for > >me. The 'quality' breakouts are moving past the 5% limit too fast to be > >bought, even though they proceed to much bigger gains. Breakouts that > >actually give you a chance to buy within the 5% limit are failing days > >later. > > > >On top of that, the "anti-CANSLIM" approach of buying beaten down tech > >stocks would have produced stellar returns over the past month. > > > >I know discipline pays off in the end, but these past few weeks one could > >have done very well by stretching the CANSLIM rules just a bit... > > > > > >- > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 19:07:38 +0300 From: "David S. Pinhasik" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IGT Tamas, Norman and David - thanks. Todays volume looks similar to yesterdays, at this point. It has reached about half of ADV already and it is down another 1.45%. David - ----- Original Message ----- From: "David Squires" To: Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 5:03 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IGT > This is a example of a stock that is doing everything right. I would not > worry about yesterdays heavy volume day because the prior two days of > advance were on massive volume. Also, Greg Kuhn has noted that it is not > uncommon to see a distribution day some time during the first 25% of a > stocks advance. It is usually a headfake. It is the distribution after the > 25% mark that is more indicative of a coming selloff, according to Kuhn. To > answer your question simply compare today's volume to yesterday's to > determine a distribution day. > > DSquires > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "David S. Pinhasik" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 2:34 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] IGT > > > > Can someone refresh my memory? IGT closed down yesterday on higher than > > average volume - 1.34 ADV. Does it have to be over 1.5 ADV to be an > > indication of distribution, or is 1.3 also a sign? Is this just normal > > profit taking? > > > > David > > > > > > > > A professor is one who talks in someone else's sleep. > > ============================================ > > David S. Pinhasik > > IBM Global Services (Israel) > > @ Chaim Sheba Medical Center - Tel Hashomer, Israel > > +972 3 530 5209 (new) > > +972 3 534 5748 fax > > +1 707 885 7831 US efax > > dsap@shani.net > > ============================================ > > This signature and tagline were generated by SchizoSigz! > > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 09:10:14 -0700 From: "Sisyphus" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] COCO - RIP >Again, did you know 3 months ago that you would be better off in index >funds? No. If you think that now, why not put some of that cash into VFINX= >then? Diversification is king. I am not nearly 100% in CANSLIM stocks, and= >I don't think anyone should be, unless their accounts are funded with >"play >money" and they can afford to lose any of their capital. Oh, I am. I'm CANSLIM investing with a portion only. Still.... > >FYI, I am spectacularly ahead, and so should most on this list be, at >least >for the past month. The CANSLIM parts of my accounts are killing the index= >fund parts! I am ahead, but by no means spectacularly ahead. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 12:11:18 -0400 From: "Rick Parsons" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] MSS MSS is "breaking out" on high volume. Rick - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Rick Parsons Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 11:14 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] MSS MSS 97, D,A,C,B but has nice earnings and growth rate. Looks like it is forming a shallow handle on declining volume. Comments? This is a new addition to the database. Rick - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 09:27:19 -0700 (PDT) From: Steve F Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades I enjoy following the recommendations of analysts that have maintained 'buy' or better on stocks as they have fallen 75% to 90% from their highs and only then changing the recommendations to a 'hold'. Ridiculous if it were not so pitiful that many, many people follow these analysts and their recommendations. Also check out how many 'sell' recommendations you find. Surely there are some stocks that you would want to unload. With every bit of sincerity, I have found that recommendations or suggestions from the people in this group to surpass anything I have ever received from any brokerage house. Steve - --- Tim Fisher wrote: > And I can give you just as many examples of stocks > for which the downgrade > was a non-event a few days later. How could you know > which would be the > case with your stock? You are not prescient, neither > am I, and that is what > stops are for (IMHO!) As the list has discussed, > downgrades based on a > stock reaching a nonsense "target price" are just > plain silly. If what is > "wrong" with COCO is that it broke out and reached a > new high, then give me > more of these "wrong" stocks, the more the merrier! > > On 08:36 AM 5/23/01, Dave Rubin Said: > >WON is clear that sometimes you can and should get > out of a stock before it > >is down 7-8% from your buy point if things don't > look right. > > > >Today's free fall at the open was a clear sign to > me not to wait for 8%. > >With the stock violating its pivot on high volume, > something was clearly > >wrong. > > > >RYL is an even better example. It fell on huge > volume on a downgrade on > >5/16. With the pivot at 50.38, RYL would not have > triggered stops for those > >who bought at the right time. But this downgrade > was not forgotten days > >later, and RYL is now back into its base and shows > no signs of recovery. > > > >Preservation of capital ... preservation of capital > ... SERENITY NOW ... > >SERENITY NOW ... > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On > Behalf Of Tim Fisher > > > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 11:27 AM > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades > > > > > > > > > If you had an 8% stop loss and caught the pivot > within 5% you would still > > > be in. Was your stop at your buy point? I am not > at all concerned about > > > COCO, as the list has discussed (too much) > yesterday, these kind of > > > downgrades are usually forgotten within 2 days > of the knee-jerk sell-off. > > > > > > On 06:47 AM 5/23/01, Rick Parsons Said: > > > >COCO was downgraded this morning and I got > stopped out! Darn Analysts. > > > > > > > >Rick > > > > > > > > > > > >-----Original Message----- > > > >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On > Behalf Of Dave Cameron > > > >Sent: Tuesday, May 22, 2001 10:11 PM > > > >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > >Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades > > > > > > > > > > > >Patti, > > > > > > > >I'm very cynical on analyst downgrades (or > upgrades). As a general > > > >rule, in the recent bear on the Nasdaq, > analysts for major brokerage > > > >houses would rate companies like CSCO as a > strong buy half way down > > > >its descent. At that point, they'd say it was > overvalued (AFTER it > > > >had already shed 30% - and they'd probably got > their clients out). > > > >This proclamation generally was the catalyst > for another quick fall. > > > > > > > >On the flip side, I've been burned in bull > markets this way. I once > > > >bought a stock on a breakout to a new high. 2 > days later, it was > > > >downgraded by a Merrill Lynch analyst. The > stock quickly dropped > > > >15% on the announcement - leaving me with a > quick 8% loss. Silly > > > >me, I figured the only reason the stock went > down was because of the > > > >analyst downgrade. Well, I learned the hard > way that once Merrill > > > >Lynch talks, others follow. A week later, the > stock was down 25%, > > > >and I was still holding it. I had to sell > then, realizing I was > > > >wrong. 3 months later it got back above my buy > price. I'm > > > >confident that had ML not downgraded the stock, > I would have had a > > > >profit. > > > > > > > >My two cents, > > > > > > > >Dave > > > > > > > > > > > >===== > > > >Dave Cameron > > > >dfcameron@yahoo.com > > > > > > > > >__________________________________________________ > > > >Do You Yahoo!? > > > >Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at > great prices > > > >http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > > > > > >- > > > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" > or > > > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in > your email. > > > > > > > >- > > > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" > or > > > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in > your email. > > > > > > Tim Fisher > > > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW > Sites > > > > > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > > > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > > > See naked fish and rocks! > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in > your email. > > > > > > > > >- > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices http://auctions.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 10:45:12 -0600 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SJT Sloping handle ?? That is not a handle, since there is no cup. Its more of a LLUR type thing. This one is probably ok to buy on a pullback since it has such a strong overall uptrend. I would just try to identify some sort of support level or consolidation area before buying though. On 23 May 01, at 8:54, Steve F wrote: > > I like the chart formation and fundies on SJT. I am > keeping an eye on the sloping downward handle but am > concerned about the fact the the volume is greater > than I would like it to be. Lower than the 50 day > average but not fading off either. > > Any comments. > > Steve > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices > http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 10:29:29 -0700 (PDT) From: Kent Norman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SJT Sloping handle ?? Would you consider the double top and declining RS a bad omen? Kent Norman - --- Patrick Wahl wrote: > That is not a handle, since there is no cup. Its > more of a LLUR > type thing. This one is probably ok to buy on a > pullback since it > has such a strong overall uptrend. I would just > try to identify some > sort of support level or consolidation area before > buying though. > > On 23 May 01, at 8:54, Steve F wrote: > > > > > I like the chart formation and fundies on SJT. I > am > > keeping an eye on the sloping downward handle but > am > > concerned about the fact the the volume is greater > > than I would like it to be. Lower than the 50 day > > average but not fading off either. > > > > Any comments. > > > > Steve > > > > __________________________________________________ > > Do You Yahoo!? > > Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great > prices > > http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices http://auctions.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 10:38:52 -0700 (PDT) From: Kent Norman Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] COCO - RIP Here is a snip from the IBD archives on chasing a breakout. "Chasing a stock that's already 5% or more past that point can be a wasted effort. Because you've missed some of the initial gains, you have less of a cushion to ride out a normal pullback in price. But not all stocks give you the luxury of a leisurely purchase. A stock may open and trade several points above the previous day's intraday high. This price movement, also known as a gap, can occur for many reasons. There may have been some positive overnight news, such as healthy earnings. Or maybe a mutual fund decided it was time to snatch up a load of shares. Whatever the reason, demand is so strong in the morning that the stock opened above the previous day's trading range, creating a bullish gap on a price chart. So what do you do if you wake up and the stock you've been eyeing greets the day higher than the buy point you've set? Aside from finding out if there's any news on the company, you should also reconsider the stock's fundamentals. If the numbers are strong, consider buying a small stake -- though not as much as you originally intended. Then wait and see what the next few days bring. If the stock holds its initial price increase, add to your position. In today's fast-paced market, that strategy can help you land a winner." Regards Kent Norman - --- Rick Parsons wrote: > Interesting comment about quality breakouts moving > past the 5% limit to > fast. > I had just posted a comment on Software Tools and > got several responses that > indicated that one does not have to watch the market > all day long. Several > made comments they check now and then from work. I > would imagine that in > order to catch these "5% limit" stocks one would > have to be by a realtime > monitor. > > Rick > > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf > Of Dave Rubin > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 11:21 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] COCO - RIP > > > Another breakout bites the dust. Took a 4% loss on > this one. > > I don't know about everyone else but this has been a > frustrating time for > me. The 'quality' breakouts are moving past the 5% > limit too fast to be > bought, even though they proceed to much bigger > gains. Breakouts that > actually give you a chance to buy within the 5% > limit are failing days > later. > > On top of that, the "anti-CANSLIM" approach of > buying beaten down tech > stocks would have produced stellar returns over the > past month. > > I know discipline pays off in the end, but these > past few weeks one could > have done very well by stretching the CANSLIM rules > just a bit... > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices http://auctions.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 14:00:13 -0400 From: "Rick Parsons" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PDII Tom, Just an observation: In the booklet "40 Great Stock Market Winners" provided by Daily Graphs (printed) they show a several examples of stocks that had fallen 50% before recovering and going on to huge gains. Examples shown were AOL which fell from 140 to 69, IGT which fell from 20 to about 10. At the beginning of the booklet introduction, item #13 says "Most of the moves were preceded by correction and consolidation areas in coincidence with general market corrections." Nevertheless the buy points were made after they came back near to (but not necessarily at) their highs. Granted, PDII has not come back to its previous high, but I don't believe falling 50% is a valid criteria to ignore a stock completely. Especially with great "fundies". But then again I could be wrong. There is no sure thing in this business ! Rick - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher Sent: Tuesday, May 22, 2001 12:38 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PDII I don't consider anything that has fallen 50% from its highs. I doubt WON would either. There is so much overhead resistance there it is not worth the fight to get back to near the old high. Again, there are so many good candidates out there right now, why bother with something so beaten down? On 09:26 AM 5/22/01, Rick Parsons Said: >Tim, >I am not familiar with the company. thanks for your comments. >However despite the terminated contract and fall from the 52 week high, it >still has ratings of 99,A,A,A,A with a RS of 95. >This puts it up along the best of the best, does it not >If they can still rate this high after the terminated contract, does that >not say they are doing something right? >Of course I am just a beginner here, so tell me if these ratings must be >ignored. > >Rick > > >-----Original Message----- >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher >Sent: Tuesday, May 22, 2001 12:08 PM >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PDII > > >Are you serious? Are we talking the PDII which has a 52 week high of 142 >and is now at 83? The one who terminated the big contract with Glaxo and >got a 50% haircut? > >On 08:47 AM 5/22/01, Rick Parsons Said: > >Very tight rising base but great CANSLIM ratings, 99, A,A,A,A. > >How would you enter this? > >Comments? > > > >Rick > > > > > >- > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > >Tim Fisher >Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > >Tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW: http://OreRockOn.com >See naked fish and rocks! > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 14:11:10 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades Canslimmers: I've noticed time and again (eg. COCO) that a stock should be sold after making a new high when the THE RS LINE doesn't confirm by going to a new high itself. I know not much attention or credence is given this indicator, but-even though it is sometimes early (ie. the stock makes a new high, the RS line doesn't, and the stock goes on up to 10% or more before plummeting)-it more often than not takes good aim, signalling a weak stock. I certainly would use it to buy (for exp. I wouldn't buy a BO if the stock's RS line also doesn't (or in the recent past there isn't a) BO to a new high. And I would use it to sell (I haven't used it so far because I'm not too sure of the stamina of this rally (so I haven't made any buys recently), and I've only begun paying attention to the RS line in the last couple months). I wouldn't completely give up on the stock if the stock makes a new high and the RS line doesn't, but I certainly would tighten my stop. jans In a message dated 5/23/2001 11:25:32 AM Eastern Daylight Time, Tim@OreRockOn.com writes: << If you had an 8% stop loss and caught the pivot within 5% you would still be in. Was your stop at your buy point? I am not at all concerned about COCO, as the list has discussed (too much) yesterday, these kind of downgrades are usually forgotten within 2 days of the knee-jerk sell-off. On 06:47 AM 5/23/01, Rick Parsons Said: >COCO was downgraded this morning and I got stopped out! Darn Analysts. > >Rick > > >-----Original Message----- >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Dave Cameron >Sent: Tuesday, May 22, 2001 10:11 PM >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades > > >Patti, > >I'm very cynical on analyst downgrades (or upgrades). As a general >rule, in the recent bear on the Nasdaq, analysts for major brokerage >houses would rate companies like CSCO as a strong buy half way down >its descent. At that point, they'd say it was overvalued (AFTER it >had already shed 30% - and they'd probably got their clients out). >This proclamation generally was the catalyst for another quick fall. > >On the flip side, I've been burned in bull markets this way. I once >bought a stock on a breakout to a new high. 2 days later, it was >downgraded by a Merrill Lynch analyst. The stock quickly dropped >15% on the announcement - leaving me with a quick 8% loss. Silly >me, I figured the only reason the stock went down was because of the >analyst downgrade. Well, I learned the hard way that once Merrill >Lynch talks, others follow. A week later, the stock was down 25%, >and I was still holding it. I had to sell then, realizing I was >wrong. 3 months later it got back above my buy price. I'm >confident that had ML not downgraded the stock, I would have had a >profit. > >My two cents, > >Dave > > >===== >Dave Cameron >dfcameron@yahoo.com >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 18:11:23 +0000 (GMT) From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades On Wed, 23 May 2001 09:47:23 -0400, you wrote: :COCO was downgraded this morning and I got stopped out! Darn Analysts. : :Rick We're in the same boat, Rick. COCO hit my mental stop this morning and I dutifully pulled the plug. Got wacked on MDC too... Keep baling!=20 I think I better start getting into stocks BEFORE "analysts" single them out as having reached a peak. It's dangerous buying winning stocks. Better to buy them when everybody is going, "well, will it really take off? It LOOKS like it should..." Then you get in when it STARTS its ascent. Trouble is, in my view, getting the perfect CANSLIM entry point is very difficult. It requires an alignment of stars that happens once a blue moon. If you aren't looking at the right part of the sky at the right time, you miss it. Dan :-----Original Message----- :From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com :[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Dave Cameron :Sent: Tuesday, May 22, 2001 10:11 PM :To: canslim@lists.xmission.com :Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades=20 : : :Patti, : :I'm very cynical on analyst downgrades (or upgrades). As a general :rule, in the recent bear on the Nasdaq, analysts for major brokerage :houses would rate companies like CSCO as a strong buy half way down :its descent. At that point, they'd say it was overvalued (AFTER it :had already shed 30% - and they'd probably got their clients out). =20 :This proclamation generally was the catalyst for another quick fall. : :On the flip side, I've been burned in bull markets this way. I once :bought a stock on a breakout to a new high. 2 days later, it was :downgraded by a Merrill Lynch analyst. The stock quickly dropped :15% on the announcement - leaving me with a quick 8% loss. Silly :me, I figured the only reason the stock went down was because of the :analyst downgrade. Well, I learned the hard way that once Merrill :Lynch talks, others follow. A week later, the stock was down 25%, :and I was still holding it. I had to sell then, realizing I was :wrong. 3 months later it got back above my buy price. I'm :confident that had ML not downgraded the stock, I would have had a :profit. : :My two cents, : :Dave : : :=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D :Dave Cameron :dfcameron@yahoo.com : :__________________________________________________ :Do You Yahoo!? :Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices :http://auctions.yahoo.com/ : :- :-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" :-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or :-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. : :- :-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" :-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or :-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 13:15:16 -0600 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SJT Sloping handle ?? Neither would bother me, but maybe that's because I don't know enough to be worried. Wouldn't you always get a declining RS during a price consolidation? Seeing volume dry up a little might be desirable, and a range contraction for a day or two. On 23 May 01, at 10:29, Kent Norman wrote: > Would you consider the double top and declining RS a > bad omen? > > Kent Norman > > --- Patrick Wahl wrote: > > That is not a handle, since there is no cup. Its > > more of a LLUR > > type thing. This one is probably ok to buy on a > > pullback since it > > has such a strong overall uptrend. I would just > > try to identify some > > sort of support level or consolidation area before > > buying though. > > > > On 23 May 01, at 8:54, Steve F wrote: > > > > > > > > I like the chart formation and fundies on SJT. I > > am > > > keeping an eye on the sloping downward handle but > > am > > > concerned about the fact the the volume is greater > > > than I would like it to be. Lower than the 50 day > > > average but not fading off either. > > > > > > Any comments. > > > > > > Steve > > > > > > __________________________________________________ > > > Do You Yahoo!? > > > Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great > > prices > > > http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > > email. > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > email. > > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices > http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 13:16:29 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] COCO - beating a dead horse Just a thought, but I never make decisions except for buy/don't buy based on intraday prices. COCO closed down 5% today on less than 2x ADV. Not a significant drop by my standards. Certainly nowhere near the 50 dma. Even intraday, it didn't hit my 8% stop, which is good since I use hard stops, having no other choice. But, all the analysis going on here based on an intraday drop truly amazed me. What would WON, king of the weekly charts, think? Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 14:09:20 -0700 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] COCO - beating a dead horse I agree with you 100% on this issue. I too hold COCO. One shouldn't be concerned with intraday pricing. I started using canslim to make my investing life simpler and not have to track stock by the hour. I only use mental stops. If it drops 9% in one day, so be it. I put in the sell order the next day after the open. Most of the time stocks drop less than that on a per day basis so I rarely get burned past 7-8%. Besides, there is good chance a fundamentally strong stock will regain much of the loss in the last half hour of trade. Looking at COCO after the close - still holding... - -Bill Triffet - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tim Fisher" To: Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 1:16 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] COCO - beating a dead horse > Just a thought, but I never make decisions except for buy/don't buy based > on intraday prices. COCO closed down 5% today on less than 2x ADV. Not a > significant drop by my standards. Certainly nowhere near the 50 dma. Even > intraday, it didn't hit my 8% stop, which is good since I use hard stops, > having no other choice. But, all the analysis going on here based on an > intraday drop truly amazed me. What would WON, king of the weekly charts, > think? > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 17:58:46 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] COCO - beating a dead horse Tim: Does the gap down affect your analysis (it looks to me on DG chart that it gapped down). Also, why don't you consider COCO's 5% drop on more than ADV (esp. since it is more than yesterday's volume where the price closed higher) significant? Because it rose above support, and closed at the top of its range? I'm asking because I don't know, and if I did own the stock, this drop (esp. the gap down) would seem worrisome to me. jans In a message dated 5/23/2001 4:16:18 PM Eastern Daylight Time, Tim@OreRockOn.com writes: << Just a thought, but I never make decisions except for buy/don't buy based on intraday prices. COCO closed down 5% today on less than 2x ADV. Not a significant drop by my standards. Certainly nowhere near the 50 dma. Even intraday, it didn't hit my 8% stop, which is good since I use hard stops, having no other choice. But, all the analysis going on here based on an intraday drop truly amazed me. What would WON, king of the weekly charts, think? Tim Fisher >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 15:09:26 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] COCO - beating a dead horse Turn what you said in its head. If I didn't own the stock, this (not a gap) down would be significant.n SInce I do own it, the only thing that is significant is my stop. Period. On 02:58 PM 5/23/01, Spencer48@aol.com Said: >Tim: > > Does the gap down affect your analysis (it looks to me on DG chart that >it gapped down). > > Also, why don't you consider COCO's 5% drop on more than ADV (esp. > since >it is more than yesterday's volume where the price closed higher) >significant? Because it rose above support, and closed at the top of its >range? > > I'm asking because I don't know, and if I did own the stock, this drop >(esp. the gap down) would seem worrisome to me. > >jans > > > >In a message dated 5/23/2001 4:16:18 PM Eastern Daylight Time, >Tim@OreRockOn.com writes: > ><< Just a thought, but I never make decisions except for buy/don't buy based > on intraday prices. COCO closed down 5% today on less than 2x ADV. Not a > significant drop by my standards. Certainly nowhere near the 50 dma. Even > intraday, it didn't hit my 8% stop, which is good since I use hard stops, > having no other choice. But, all the analysis going on here based on an > intraday drop truly amazed me. What would WON, king of the weekly charts, > think? > > Tim Fisher >> > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 19:47:20 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades Sorry, Rick, but bet you love the analysts when they put a strong buy on something you already own! Closed at the high end of the day's range, right at the gap down. Good sign for those that want to continue watching. Low end of the day's range at 43.10 was right at the short (one week) base, and high end was at the bottom of the volatile base it had been forming. The question I would always like to ask these analysts, assuming the downgrade was because it had reached some mystical, hypothetical valuation based target, or maybe just because they considered it over or fully valued, is why did it take a week of trading in the 50 range to figure that out? Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net - ----- Original Message ----- From: Rick Parsons To: Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 9:47 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades COCO was downgraded this morning and I got stopped out! Darn Analysts. Rick - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Dave Cameron Sent: Tuesday, May 22, 2001 10:11 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades Patti, I'm very cynical on analyst downgrades (or upgrades). As a general rule, in the recent bear on the Nasdaq, analysts for major brokerage houses would rate companies like CSCO as a strong buy half way down its descent. At that point, they'd say it was overvalued (AFTER it had already shed 30% - and they'd probably got their clients out). This proclamation generally was the catalyst for another quick fall. On the flip side, I've been burned in bull markets this way. I once bought a stock on a breakout to a new high. 2 days later, it was downgraded by a Merrill Lynch analyst. The stock quickly dropped 15% on the announcement - leaving me with a quick 8% loss. Silly me, I figured the only reason the stock went down was because of the analyst downgrade. Well, I learned the hard way that once Merrill Lynch talks, others follow. A week later, the stock was down 25%, and I was still holding it. I had to sell then, realizing I was wrong. 3 months later it got back above my buy price. I'm confident that had ML not downgraded the stock, I would have had a profit. My two cents, Dave ===== Dave Cameron dfcameron@yahoo.com __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices http://auctions.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1393 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.