From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1396 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, May 24 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1396 In this issue: [CANSLIM] NON-CANSLIM Analyst up/downgrades or 'Starting Coverage' Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades Re: [CANSLIM] DGO service down? Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades [CANSLIM] Other indicators & canslim. Too much? Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout Re: [CANSLIM] IGT Re: [CANSLIM] Other indicators & canslim. Too much? Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout [CANSLIM] Short squeeze coming? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 21:39:34 -0600 From: DougC Subject: [CANSLIM] NON-CANSLIM Analyst up/downgrades or 'Starting Coverage' I don't follow analysts ratings as part of my process of selecting stocks. However, today on TM.com I happened to browse an article about Apple. Definitely not CANSLIM but I have a co-worker who's ridden Apple up 200% and back down to even in a year so I try to give him a bad time about it. This article is about Goldman Sachs starting coverage on Apple with a Market Outperform rating. Apple is in a group with RS 7. Apples RS is 37 and EPS is 45. It's last two quarters were big losers compared to same quarter previous year. The other top stocks in the group are NCR 64/98, IBM 59/90, Dell 43/81, Hwp 24/46, Sunw 19/82. What I found really odd about Apples numbers is it's PE is 179 and book value 1.96. The PE's of the other stocks in the group are all under 45. The positive about Apple is some new products and their opening of some retail stores. And the RS of Apple was also mentioned as a positive. I don't know what RS number they're looking at but to me RS 37 is'nt positive. The near term expectation of price appreciation for Apple associated with this 'Market Outperform' rating is 29 bucks. It's at 23 bucks. That's almost a 30% gain. Not bad but looking at the numbers, especially the PE, I'd say (but of course I'm no analyst) that Apple has a better chance of losing 6 bucks right now than gaining it. In fact I think I'll buy a Put on Apple. Then if I make money on it I can really give my co-worker a bad time. Of course if I lose money on it I won't tell him about it. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 20:45:11 -0700 From: Dan Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades Spencer48@aol.com wrote: > Canslimmers: > > I've noticed time and again (eg. COCO) that a stock should be sold after > making a new high when the THE RS LINE doesn't confirm by going to a new high > itself. I know not much attention or credence is given this indicator, > but-even though it is sometimes early (ie. the stock makes a new high, the RS > line doesn't, and the stock goes on up to 10% or more before plummeting)-it > more often than not takes good aim, signalling a weak stock. Agreed. I think is a good indicator to keep in ones tool box. The MACD_Histogram, in this case diverged strongly (visually) and did not confirm the new high, and just noticed OBV did not. But, they all confirmed the divergence. Of course, occurring yesterday, it would have been tough to escape the gap down. It would be good to keep an eye on it, and consider an entry when the above turn up, if it consolidates around this level. Dan > > > I certainly would use it to buy (for exp. I wouldn't buy a BO if the > stock's RS line also doesn't (or in the recent past there isn't a) BO to a > new high. And I would use it to sell (I haven't used it so far because I'm > not too sure of the stamina of this rally (so I haven't made any buys > recently), and I've only begun paying attention to the RS line in the last > couple months). > > I wouldn't completely give up on the stock if the stock makes a new high > and the RS line doesn't, but I certainly would tighten my stop. > > jans > > In a message dated 5/23/2001 11:25:32 AM Eastern Daylight Time, > Tim@OreRockOn.com writes: > > << If you had an 8% stop loss and caught the pivot within 5% you would still > be in. Was your stop at your buy point? I am not at all concerned about > COCO, as the list has discussed (too much) yesterday, these kind of > downgrades are usually forgotten within 2 days of the knee-jerk sell-off. > > On 06:47 AM 5/23/01, Rick Parsons Said: > >COCO was downgraded this morning and I got stopped out! Darn Analysts. > > > >Rick > > > > > >-----Original Message----- > >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Dave Cameron > >Sent: Tuesday, May 22, 2001 10:11 PM > >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades > > > > > >Patti, > > > >I'm very cynical on analyst downgrades (or upgrades). As a general > >rule, in the recent bear on the Nasdaq, analysts for major brokerage > >houses would rate companies like CSCO as a strong buy half way down > >its descent. At that point, they'd say it was overvalued (AFTER it > >had already shed 30% - and they'd probably got their clients out). > >This proclamation generally was the catalyst for another quick fall. > > > >On the flip side, I've been burned in bull markets this way. I once > >bought a stock on a breakout to a new high. 2 days later, it was > >downgraded by a Merrill Lynch analyst. The stock quickly dropped > >15% on the announcement - leaving me with a quick 8% loss. Silly > >me, I figured the only reason the stock went down was because of the > >analyst downgrade. Well, I learned the hard way that once Merrill > >Lynch talks, others follow. A week later, the stock was down 25%, > >and I was still holding it. I had to sell then, realizing I was > >wrong. 3 months later it got back above my buy price. I'm > >confident that had ML not downgraded the stock, I would have had a > >profit. > > > >My two cents, > > > >Dave > > > > > >===== > >Dave Cameron > >dfcameron@yahoo.com >> > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 21:47:27 -0600 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO service down? We always suspected you were "special" ;) On 23 May 01, at 22:04, Tom Worley wrote: > I've been on for 2.5 hours continuously, without any problems. > > Maybe I'm "special"?? > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Gene Ricci > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 9:54 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO service down? > > > it's been erratic this evening but I was finally able to get on.... > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Jonathan Lien > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 8:43 PM > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DGO service down? > > > test > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Spencer48@aol.com > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 10:33 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO service down? > > > Rick: > > I also had trouble connecting to DG this morning. I wrote to them, > and here is there reply (apparently they were having problems at their > end): > > Thank you for your recent e-mail to Daily Graphs Online. > > The message that you noted is an indication that your computer was not > able to connect to our network. At the time this occurred, we were > experiencing a minor issue that has since been resolved. Please log in > to Daily Graphs Online at your earliest convenience. I thank you for > your patience on this matter. > > Please write back if you have any questions or if we may assist you in > any way. > > Best regards, > Dan > Daily Graphs Online > > jans > > > > In a message dated 5/23/2001 9:46:47 AM Eastern Daylight Time, > RickParsons@Columbus.rr.com writes: > > << Is it just me or are others having problems opening DGO this morning? > (5/23) > > Rick >> > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 21:47:27 -0600 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades Analysts are actually the guys making the stock picks, they are the ones upgrading and downgrading stocks. Brokers are mainly salesman, and they are touting stocks to clients that are recommended by the brokerage's research staff (analysts). On 23 May 01, at 20:52, jsteff wrote: > Just a comment about "brokers". If they are so knowledgeable and great at > stock picking why are they still trying to sell the "next great company" to > their clients? Shouldn't they have made their millions by now and retired? > Steff > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Tom Worley" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 8:16 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades > > > > Naturally, this group is a bunch of independent thinkers, capable > > of making a decision for themselves. I wish I could say the same > > for my former colleagues holding securities licenses, or their > > clients. And we all try to help each other stay out of harm's > > way. Typically we don't have an investment banking relationship > > to the same stocks we are analyzing, thus no bias. > > > > The wirehouses are a joke when it comes to their "plain English" > > labels for ratings. You need a matrix to translate a "hold" as > > really meaning "sell that sucka, now, at any price". I did find > > such a matrix on the net a year or so ago, don't remember if I > > bookmarked it or not, but if I find it again, I'll post it. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Steve F > > To: > > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 12:27 PM > > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades > > > > > > I enjoy following the recommendations of analysts that > > have maintained 'buy' or better on stocks as they have > > fallen 75% to 90% from their highs and only then > > changing the recommendations to a 'hold'. Ridiculous > > if it were not so pitiful that many, many people > > follow these analysts and their recommendations. Also > > check out how many 'sell' recommendations you find. > > Surely there are some stocks that you would want to > > unload. > > With every bit of sincerity, I have found that > > recommendations or suggestions from the people in this > > group to surpass anything I have ever received from > > any brokerage house. > > Steve > > > > --- Tim Fisher wrote: > > > And I can give you just as many examples of stocks > > > for which the downgrade > > > was a non-event a few days later. How could you know > > > which would be the > > > case with your stock? You are not prescient, neither > > > am I, and that is what > > > stops are for (IMHO!) As the list has discussed, > > > downgrades based on a > > > stock reaching a nonsense "target price" are just > > > plain silly. If what is > > > "wrong" with COCO is that it broke out and reached a > > > new high, then give me > > > more of these "wrong" stocks, the more the merrier! > > > > > > On 08:36 AM 5/23/01, Dave Rubin Said: > > > >WON is clear that sometimes you can and should get > > > out of a stock before it > > > >is down 7-8% from your buy point if things don't > > > look right. > > > > > > > >Today's free fall at the open was a clear sign to > > > me not to wait for 8%. > > > >With the stock violating its pivot on high volume, > > > something was clearly > > > >wrong. > > > > > > > >RYL is an even better example. It fell on huge > > > volume on a downgrade on > > > >5/16. With the pivot at 50.38, RYL would not have > > > triggered stops for those > > > >who bought at the right time. But this downgrade > > > was not forgotten days > > > >later, and RYL is now back into its base and shows > > > no signs of recovery. > > > > > > > >Preservation of capital ... preservation of capital > > > ... SERENITY NOW ... > > > >SERENITY NOW ... > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On > > > Behalf Of Tim Fisher > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 11:27 AM > > > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > > > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If you had an 8% stop loss and caught the pivot > > > within 5% you would still > > > > > be in. Was your stop at your buy point? I am not > > > at all concerned about > > > > > COCO, as the list has discussed (too much) > > > yesterday, these kind of > > > > > downgrades are usually forgotten within 2 days > > > of the knee-jerk sell-off. > > > > > > > > > > On 06:47 AM 5/23/01, Rick Parsons Said: > > > > > >COCO was downgraded this morning and I got > > > stopped out! Darn Analysts. > > > > > > > > > > > >Rick > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >-----Original Message----- > > > > > >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > > > >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On > > > Behalf Of Dave Cameron > > > > > >Sent: Tuesday, May 22, 2001 10:11 PM > > > > > >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > > > >Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Analyst up/downgrades > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >Patti, > > > > > > > > > > > >I'm very cynical on analyst downgrades (or > > > upgrades). As a general > > > > > >rule, in the recent bear on the Nasdaq, > > > analysts for major brokerage > > > > > >houses would rate companies like CSCO as a > > > strong buy half way down > > > > > >its descent. At that point, they'd say it was > > > overvalued (AFTER it > > > > > >had already shed 30% - and they'd probably got > > > their clients out). > > > > > >This proclamation generally was the catalyst > > > for another quick fall. > > > > > > > > > > > >On the flip side, I've been burned in bull > > > markets this way. I once > > > > > >bought a stock on a breakout to a new high. 2 > > > days later, it was > > > > > >downgraded by a Merrill Lynch analyst. The > > > stock quickly dropped > > > > > >15% on the announcement - leaving me with a > > > quick 8% loss. Silly > > > > > >me, I figured the only reason the stock went > > > down was because of the > > > > > >analyst downgrade. Well, I learned the hard > > > way that once Merrill > > > > > >Lynch talks, others follow. A week later, the > > > stock was down 25%, > > > > > >and I was still holding it. I had to sell > > > then, realizing I was > > > > > >wrong. 3 months later it got back above my buy > > > price. I'm > > > > > >confident that had ML not downgraded the stock, > > > I would have had a > > > > > >profit. > > > > > > > > > > > >My two cents, > > > > > > > > > > > >Dave > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >===== > > > > > >Dave Cameron > > > > > >dfcameron@yahoo.com > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >__________________________________________________ > > > > > >Do You Yahoo!? > > > > > >Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at > > > great prices > > > > > >http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" > > > or > > > > > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in > > > your email. > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" > > > or > > > > > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in > > > your email. > > > > > > > > > > Tim Fisher > > > > > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW > > > Sites > > > > > > > > > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > > > > > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > > > > > See naked fish and rocks! > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in > > > your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > > > email. > > > > > > Tim Fisher > > > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > > > > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > > > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > > > See naked fish and rocks! > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your > > email. > > > > > > __________________________________________________ > > Do You Yahoo!? > > Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices > > http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 21:45:37 -0700 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: [CANSLIM] Other indicators & canslim. Too much? From time to time I see posts here refering to additional technical indicators. I think these are great additional tools for the advanced folks and those with extra time to learn to incorporate them correctly. They might include the MACD and Stochastic indicators as a sample. I just want to say that these are not covered in HTMMIS and not somthing one needs to get too concerned about. I'm not saying we should not discuss these tools but I felt it needed to be explained to some of the newer folks here. I've been following canslim for 3 years now and have found there are enough tools for stock selection and selling that you can keep it simple. - -Bill Triffet - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 23:54:29 -0500 From: "Jim Carr" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout Andy, I'm speaking from a limited experience base on this, but will cite one recent example. A few weeks ago, I watched PECS break out of a very nice C&H. I decided to pass on it, primarily because the ADV was sitting around 15K at the time. Great idea! PECS is now ~68% above the pivot, and the volume accompanying the buyout has knocked the ADV up to over 108K. I'll think more seriously about letting this scare me off next time. Jim - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Drewcorp" To: Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 10:59 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout > I think there is much to like about HIBB.... > > I am concerned about average daily volume (16,000). I believe WON > recommends a much higher number to be considered. > > Thoughts? > > Andy > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Rick Parsons" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 11:21 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout > > > > HIBB breaking out of a nice looking cup and handle on high volume today > > despite "M". > > > > Comments? > > > > Rick > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 23:01:50 -0600 From: DougC Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IGT I'm not sure I understand your point. I count the base of IGT as having a duration of 10 weeks. The left side of the cup started on 03/07. The cup 7 weeks and the handle 3 weeks. It's short but it is a base in a strongly uptrending stock with excellent numbers. And I believe it's breakout point of 57 should provide good support if tested. 60 might even be good support. And any price between 57 and 60 could provide a possible second chance entry. At 05:42 PM 5/23/01 -0700, you wrote: >Just my take on IGT (since it does have CANSLIM characteristics): > >If I owned it, I'd hold on. If I didn't (which I don't), I wouldn't >be a buyer. IMHO, it is pretty far removed from its last base. >For me, a base must be at least 6 weeks - preferably more - for me to >buy into the stock. Generally, if I've bought on a breakout of less >than 8 weeks - I've been wrong over 50% of the time. > >Just one man's opinion. > >Dave > >(p.s. In a recent IBD, Garrett VanWagoner "touted" EMLX and EMBT. >He looks at these as stocks that have great potential but got >severely beaten down by the tech wreck. Interestingly enough, these >stocks still have an RS of over 75 last time I looked despite being >way off their high. Not completely CANSLIM - but fits all the >characteristics except for being a good ways off the 52-week high.) > > >===== >Dave Cameron >dfcameron@yahoo.com > >__________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices >http://auctions.yahoo.com/ > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 22:41:32 -0700 From: Dan Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Other indicators & canslim. Too much? Bill Triffet wrote: > >From time to time I see posts here refering to additional technical > indicators. I think these are great additional tools for the advanced folks > and those with extra time to learn to incorporate them correctly. They might > include the MACD and Stochastic indicators as a sample. I just want to say > that these are not covered in HTMMIS and not somthing one needs to get too > concerned about. I'm not saying we should not discuss these tools but I felt It sounds like you are equating oneil's not covering them to them being unimportant! I view a few select ones as as essential as headlights at night: dangerous without them. > > it needed to be explained to some of the newer folks here. > I've been following canslim for 3 years now and have found there are enough > tools for stock selection and selling that you can keep it simple. > > -Bill Triffet > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 00:39:56 -0700 From: Harvey Brion Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout Besides being thinly traded, DGO shows funds ownership at 51%, way above my limit of 30%. Drewcorp wrote: > I think there is much to like about HIBB.... > > I am concerned about average daily volume (16,000). I believe WON > recommends a much higher number to be considered. > > Thoughts? > > Andy > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Rick Parsons" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 11:21 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout > > > HIBB breaking out of a nice looking cup and handle on high volume today > > despite "M". > > > > Comments? > > > > Rick > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 06:40:36 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout Jim, I will speak from a very extensive experience of buying and trading stocks with very small ADV. In over two years of owning EPIQ, to cite one successful example, I have seen many days when it traded 1,000 shares or less. Most of that time the ADV remained under 10,000. That it has succeeded big time is despite those years of low liquidity. For CANSLIM purposes, you really want to only look at stocks with decent liquidity, I would suggest a minimum of 50,000 ADV, measured BEFORE a price spike and subsequent high volume significantly raises the ADV. You want to buy a stock that the funds will also be interested in buying. If it is so illiquid that they will only chance a buy once the volume had grown substantially, it is more likely they will be there only short term, take a quick profit, and exit. And their exit will do more damage, often halting a rally in progress, than their buying ever contributed to keeping the momentum rolling. And the more liquid a stock, normally the tighter the spread between the bid and ask. And that's important if you are using an 8% stop from your entry, you don't want to give up 1% just to the spread. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net - ----- Original Message ----- From: Jim Carr To: Sent: Thursday, May 24, 2001 12:54 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout Andy, I'm speaking from a limited experience base on this, but will cite one recent example. A few weeks ago, I watched PECS break out of a very nice C&H. I decided to pass on it, primarily because the ADV was sitting around 15K at the time. Great idea! PECS is now ~68% above the pivot, and the volume accompanying the buyout has knocked the ADV up to over 108K. I'll think more seriously about letting this scare me off next time. Jim - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Drewcorp" To: Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 10:59 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout > I think there is much to like about HIBB.... > > I am concerned about average daily volume (16,000). I believe WON > recommends a much higher number to be considered. > > Thoughts? > > Andy > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Rick Parsons" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 11:21 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout > > > > HIBB breaking out of a nice looking cup and handle on high volume today > > despite "M". > > > > Comments? > > > > Rick > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 06:44:59 -0500 From: "Jim Carr" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout Tom, Your point makes good sense, as usual. Thanks for sharing your experience. I was speaking having only seen what happened to PECS when the funds started coming in. Will try to remember to watch so I can learn from what happens when they start to exit. Jim - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Worley" To: Sent: Thursday, May 24, 2001 5:40 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout > Jim, > > I will speak from a very extensive experience of buying and > trading stocks with very small ADV. In over two years of owning > EPIQ, to cite one successful example, I have seen many days when > it traded 1,000 shares or less. Most of that time the ADV > remained under 10,000. That it has succeeded big time is despite > those years of low liquidity. > > For CANSLIM purposes, you really want to only look at stocks with > decent liquidity, I would suggest a minimum of 50,000 ADV, > measured BEFORE a price spike and subsequent high volume > significantly raises the ADV. > > You want to buy a stock that the funds will also be interested in > buying. If it is so illiquid that they will only chance a buy > once the volume had grown substantially, it is more likely they > will be there only short term, take a quick profit, and exit. And > their exit will do more damage, often halting a rally in > progress, than their buying ever contributed to keeping the > momentum rolling. > > And the more liquid a stock, normally the tighter the spread > between the bid and ask. And that's important if you are using an > 8% stop from your entry, you don't want to give up 1% just to the > spread. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Jim Carr > To: > Sent: Thursday, May 24, 2001 12:54 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout > > > Andy, > I'm speaking from a limited experience base on this, but will > cite one > recent example. A few weeks ago, I watched PECS break out of a > very nice > C&H. I decided to pass on it, primarily because the ADV was > sitting around > 15K at the time. Great idea! PECS is now ~68% above the pivot, > and the > volume accompanying the buyout has knocked the ADV up to over > 108K. I'll > think more seriously about letting this scare me off next time. > > Jim > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Drewcorp" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 10:59 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout > > > > I think there is much to like about HIBB.... > > > > I am concerned about average daily volume (16,000). I believe > WON > > recommends a much higher number to be considered. > > > > Thoughts? > > > > Andy > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Rick Parsons" > > To: > > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 11:21 AM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout > > > > > > > HIBB breaking out of a nice looking cup and handle on high > volume today > > > despite "M". > > > > > > Comments? > > > > > > Rick > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 07:57:42 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout Another point to keep in mind is that 2001 has been, finally, a good year for small caps. When you evaluate "M", it is important to see the huge divergence in the charts of Russell 2000 (which looks much like the NYSE Composite and DOW 30 charts) and the NASDAQ Composite and Naz 100 charts (which really have not recovered much after being the biggest losers). You will typically find that stocks with small ADV are either small cap stocks, or have such a small float that they are "handled" as if they are small caps. I would also make the additional point for those members that still persist in venturing into stocks with low ADV. Trying to use an 8% stop on your entry will likely result in being stopped out even more often, unless you bot it almost perfectly, followed by a strong move up. Otherwise, these stocks that often trade with much greater volatility, may stop you out. And the more CANSLIM rules you ignore, or modify significantly, the greater your risk. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net - ----- Original Message ----- From: Jim Carr To: Sent: Thursday, May 24, 2001 7:44 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout Tom, Your point makes good sense, as usual. Thanks for sharing your experience. I was speaking having only seen what happened to PECS when the funds started coming in. Will try to remember to watch so I can learn from what happens when they start to exit. Jim - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Worley" To: Sent: Thursday, May 24, 2001 5:40 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout > Jim, > > I will speak from a very extensive experience of buying and > trading stocks with very small ADV. In over two years of owning > EPIQ, to cite one successful example, I have seen many days when > it traded 1,000 shares or less. Most of that time the ADV > remained under 10,000. That it has succeeded big time is despite > those years of low liquidity. > > For CANSLIM purposes, you really want to only look at stocks with > decent liquidity, I would suggest a minimum of 50,000 ADV, > measured BEFORE a price spike and subsequent high volume > significantly raises the ADV. > > You want to buy a stock that the funds will also be interested in > buying. If it is so illiquid that they will only chance a buy > once the volume had grown substantially, it is more likely they > will be there only short term, take a quick profit, and exit. And > their exit will do more damage, often halting a rally in > progress, than their buying ever contributed to keeping the > momentum rolling. > > And the more liquid a stock, normally the tighter the spread > between the bid and ask. And that's important if you are using an > 8% stop from your entry, you don't want to give up 1% just to the > spread. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Jim Carr > To: > Sent: Thursday, May 24, 2001 12:54 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout > > > Andy, > I'm speaking from a limited experience base on this, but will > cite one > recent example. A few weeks ago, I watched PECS break out of a > very nice > C&H. I decided to pass on it, primarily because the ADV was > sitting around > 15K at the time. Great idea! PECS is now ~68% above the pivot, > and the > volume accompanying the buyout has knocked the ADV up to over > 108K. I'll > think more seriously about letting this scare me off next time. > > Jim > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Drewcorp" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 10:59 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout > > > > I think there is much to like about HIBB.... > > > > I am concerned about average daily volume (16,000). I believe > WON > > recommends a much higher number to be considered. > > > > Thoughts? > > > > Andy > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Rick Parsons" > > To: > > Sent: Wednesday, May 23, 2001 11:21 AM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] HIBB Breakout > > > > > > > HIBB breaking out of a nice looking cup and handle on high > volume today > > > despite "M". > > > > > > Comments? > > > > > > Rick > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 05:48:14 -0700 (PDT) From: Kent Norman Subject: [CANSLIM] Short squeeze coming? From Today's IBD, This may nudge the M more to our favor. "In fact, the short interest ratio is higher than a week ago when the market kicked off its latest move up. At some point the losses will become intolerable for investors who have sold borrowed shares from their brokers in hopes of buying them back at a lower price. They’ll be forced to cover their losing positions, which will give the market an extra boost of buying. Short sellers and option players aren’t the only folks questioning the rally. The weekly survey of bullish investment advisers logged a decline. Bulls dropped to 47.9%, which is good. The market is better off if optimism stays contained." Regards Kent Norman __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices http://auctions.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1396 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.