From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #147 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Sunday, March 15 1998 Volume 02 : Number 147 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] FW: Fundamentals from Daily Graphs [CANSLIM] Fw: English (off topic) [CANSLIM] EPIQ Re: [CANSLIM] ZOMX BILL GNTX Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ Re: [CANSLIM] ZOMX BILL GNTX Re: [CANSLIM] Fw: English (off topic) [CANSLIM] Re: Dow Transports (not CS) Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Dow Transports (not CS) [CANSLIM] End of Market Cycle (was: Re: Dow Transports) Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Dow Transports (not CS) RE: [CANSLIM] Windows on Wall Street/Quotes-Plus Re: [CANSLIM] Scanning Software Re: [CANSLIM] PK Re: [CANSLIM] LCI International [CANSLIM] Watchlist picks [CANSLIM] MKIE PTIS AZR Re: [CANSLIM] MKIE PTIS AZR Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Dow Transports (not CS) Re: [CANSLIM] End of Market Cycle (was: Re: Dow Transports) Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ [CANSLIM] Free Research Site Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ Re: [CANSLIM] End of Market Cycle (was: Re: Dow Transports) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 14 Mar 1998 12:32:58 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FW: Fundamentals from Daily Graphs Mike, Thanks for posting this cuz it taught me something new, I had never caught the fact that DG (online or paper) reported "I" as a percentage of the float vs the total issue. Will have to adjust my thinking now. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w >-----Original Message----- >From: Daily Graphs [SMTP:Dailygraphs@dailygraphs.com] >Sent: Friday, March 13, 1998 5:02 PM >To: 'mikelu@foxinternet.net' >Subject: Fundamentals from Daily Graphs > >First, we calculate % held by funds and banks by taking the number of >shares held by the funds or banks and dividing them by the float of the >company. Most of the time if there is a problem, we either have an >incorrect capitalization number or the float is incorrect - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 14 Mar 1998 12:59:14 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: English (off topic) Whenever I'm on the Internet and communicating with people all over the globe, I constantly marvel at the ease that language translators have made it, as well as the vast irregularity of the English language. Got this amusing gem in this weekend, totally unrelated to the stock mkt, but still thought provoking. tom w Let's face it -- English is a crazy language. There is no egg in eggplant nor ham in hamburger; neither apple nor pine in pineapple. English muffins weren't invented in England nor French fries in France. Sweetmeats are candies while sweetbreads, which aren't sweet, are meat. We take English for granted. But if we explore its paradoxes, we find that quicksand can work slowly, boxing rings are square and a guinea pig is neither from Guinea nor is it a pig. And why is it that writers write but fingers don't fing, grocers don't groce and hammers don't ham? If the plural of tooth is teeth, why isn't the plural of booth beeth? One goose, 2 geese. So one moose, 2 meese? One index, 2 indices? Doesn't it seem crazy that you can make amends but not one amend, that you comb through annals of history but not a single annal? If you have a bunch of odds and ends and get rid of all but one of them, what do you call it? If teachers taught, why didn't preacher praught? If a vegetarian eats vegetables, what does a humanitarian eat? If you wrote a letter, perhaps you bote your tongue? Sometimes I think all the English speakers should be committed to an asylum for the verbally insane. In what language do people recite at a play and play at a recital? Ship by truck and send cargo by ship? Have noses that run and feet that smell? Park on driveways and drive on parkways? How can a slim chance and a fat chance be the same, while a wise man and wise guy are opposites? How can overlook and oversee be opposites, while quite a lot and quite a few are alike? Have you noticed that we talk about certain things only when they are absent? Have you ever seen a horseful carriage or a strapful gown? Met a sung hero or experienced requited love? Have you ever run into someone who was combobulated, gruntled, ruly or peccable? And where are all those people who ARE spring chickens or who would ACTUALLY hurt a fly? You have to marvel at the unique lunacy of a language in which your house can burn up as it burns down, in which you fill in a form by filling it out and in which an alarm clock goes off by going on. English was invented by people, not computers, and it reflects the creativity of the human race (which, of course, isn't a race at all). That is why, when the stars are out, they are visible, but when the lights are out, they are invisible. And why, when I wind up my watch, I start it, but when I wind up this essay, I end it. >> - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 14 Mar 1998 13:09:09 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] EPIQ For those that have asked me about Electronic Processing, but haven't been following the chart on a daily basis, take a look at the current chart (preferably DG Online or paper version). The stock has formed a nice wedge, volume has dried up, it just about back on its 10dma, and I am watching for vol to come back into it. If anyone can see a negative (aside from A/D dropping from A to B), please let me know as I can't find a reason right now not to buy it if it makes a breakout signal again (yeah, I know, it's more than 25% off its high, 27% to be exact, but I said all along it got way ahead of itself so not giving this detail that much weight). Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 14 Mar 1998 13:28:10 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ZOMX BILL GNTX Bill, All three do look promising. I saw no major flaws in any of the three, had some minor observations for you. ZOMX - insider selling continues, no surprise too early, they should have held on a little longer if they could BILL - up/down ratio only 0.5 GNTX - more, and consistent, insider selling. RS 84. I have tended to avoid companies with multiple disparate product lines (auto dimming rear view mirrors and fire protection devices). Would prefer they split the company up and let us invest in the part we prefer. ABAG is another example of this with better synergy (airbags and munitions, where airbags are fired by an explosive device). Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Bud Barton To: canslim Date: Friday, March 13, 1998 8:08 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] ZOMX BILL GNTX These 3 made it through my filter for fridays IBD ZOMX - EPS 99 RS 96 Growth Rate 53% Earning Stability 18 Funds 8% Mgmt 41% This chart looks like a cup with handle forming to me. Nice base back in Aug/Sep. Any comments? BILL - EPS 93 RS 92 Growth Rate 32% Earning Stability 9 Funds 27% Mgmt 8% appears to be basing near 27. Had some problems end of Jan when an analyst said quarter was not going well but the company refuted this. GNTX - EPS 96 RS 85 Growth Rate 39% Earning Stability 12 Funds 17% Mgmt 10% appears to be basing 31/32 but volume seems to be drying up. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 14 Mar 1998 14:51:31 EST From: DCSquires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ In a message dated 98-03-14 13:10:27 EST, you write: << If anyone can see a negative (aside from A/D dropping from A to B), please let me know as I can't find a reason right now not to buy it if it makes a breakout signal again >> I have been watching this one too. There are 3 things that bother me about it. First, there are a ton of losers in this stock from the week of 2-23. These people had quick loses too which always intensifies the get out even syndrome. Also, the pattern is a decending triangle which I'm sure you know is bearish...... the volume dry-up is nice though. Finally, and this is a biggy for me, the stock is more than 2X its 200 day MA which would now be 16.50. Aggresive mutual funds tend to sell part of their postion in the area. If you look at CBSL, THQI, CYMI, SMOD, LHSPF, AVEI all of these stocks stalled in that area. It doesn't always work but I like to play the probabilities and at 2x the 200 DMA the prob. of higher prices is usually not good. Exceptions are ALK, YHOO and some of the other internet stocks. Excesive froth often negates the rule. DSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 14 Mar 1998 14:51:34 EST From: DCSquires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ZOMX BILL GNTX ZOMX-- I like this one too. Nice chart pattern. Very good volume action with a couple of good spikes showing "elephant trracks". BILL - Nice flat base. What's with that crazy downward spike? I would love to see it base for a week or two more. GNTX - I like this stock. If the cyclical (autos) trend continues it should move out of that nice tight base. Volume in the end of 97 and end of January looks great... more elephant tracks. DSQuires - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 14 Mar 1998 16:41:09 -0500 From: Joan Sherman Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fw: English (off topic) Tom, Thanks for passing along that ode to language. I sent it to my Samoyed email group which often gets bogged down with "language" issues. Thanks. As far as stocks go, last week you mentioned your firm was purchasing stocks like LHSPF, and KEA. When I checked it appeared that Keane has 60% institutuinal ownership. Does this make it harder to move? Is your firm still accumulating this stock? What do you think of the chart. Thanks for taking the time. Joanie Joan Sherman /\~~~/\ /\~~~/\ /\~~~/\ /\~/\ /\~/\ and the gang * * * * * * ** ** - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 14 Mar 1998 16:33:11 EST From: DCSquires Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Dow Transports (not CS) Hi all, I was wondering what the group thought about the transportation sector. As I was doing my weekly index review I noticed a huge number of negative divergences in the Dow Tranies. MACD histogram, Momentum and RSI are all diverging from price. Couple that with distribution at each attempt at a new high in the OCT-JAN base and some serious selling in February. Then you have the unbelievable fundementals with the price of oil falling hard.(Reminds me of the day rates are going to the moon senario for the drillers) With so many divirgences I would be willing to bet 10 oil is already in these stocks. Any thoughts? DSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 14 Mar 1998 16:56:03 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Dow Transports (not CS) At 16:33 3/14/98 EST, DCSquires wrote: >Hi all, > >I was wondering what the group thought about the transportation sector. As I >was doing my weekly index review I noticed a huge number of negative >divergences in the Dow Tranies. MACD histogram, Momentum and RSI are all >diverging from price. Couple that with distribution at each attempt at a new >high in the OCT-JAN base and some serious selling in February. Then you have >the unbelievable fundementals with the price of oil falling hard.(Reminds me >of the day rates are going to the moon senario for the drillers) With so many >divirgences I would be willing to bet 10 oil is already in these stocks. Any >thoughts? > >DSquires > >- '...bet 10 oil is already in...', if you mean that the price of oil has already been discounted, I couldn't agree more. The current chatter on CNBC is that the Airlines are projecting continuing rising ticket sales and don't see an end in sight! I would be willing to bet 10 that the current buyers in the group are new and not adding more to already established positions. I don't like groups that have as many divergences as you've spotted. I wonder if this is a secret? :-) On another subject: WON's HTMMIS, page 67, last paragraph: "For example, railroad equipment, machinery, and other capital goods industries are late movers in a business or stock market cycle. This knowledge can help you determine what stage of the current market perioed you are in. When these groups start running up, you know you're near the tail end." Past 6 weeks shows the best performance put in by Heavy Construction! 4th place was taken by: Transportation Equipment. Anyone know as to whether the two are considered capital goods group members? Frank Wolynski ( I am often wrong, plan accordingly.) - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 14 Mar 1998 15:00:36 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: [CANSLIM] End of Market Cycle (was: Re: Dow Transports) Found this on Yahoo. Different reasons, same punchline. Some of these "7000 byt he end of the year" guys must work for Morgan Stanley. They said the same thing last Feb and Oct. Friday March 13, 8:38 pm Eastern Time Stock market in last act of three act play? By Pierre Belec NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters) - Wall Street is still in love with the stock market, but some experts say investors should enjoy it while they can. This may be the last act of a three-act play. Just when it seemed that the earnings reality was finally sinking in, stocks snapped back from a series of body blows by high-profile companies such as Intel Corp. [Nasdaq:INTC - news], Compaq Computer Corp. [NYSE:CPQ - news] and Motorola Inc. [NYSE:MOT - news] that warned of sub-par profits for the latest quarter. The liquidity-driven market this week raced up to two all-time highs, with the Dow Jones industrial average hovering Friday at 8,671.52, just below Wednesday's record of 8,675.75. For the week, it was up 102.13 points. Not everybody is happy about the market's giddy rise, and some warned the stock market could be running out of luck and the Dow could be poised for a headlong drop to the 7,000 level. ``This rally certainly is not sustainable,'' said Arnold Kaufman, editor of Standard & Poor's financial newsletter. ``Clearly, the market is at a stage where gains are feeding on themselves with valuations beyond historical extremes.'' The rally was pumped up by a return flow of buying by investors who felt stocks, particularly the technology sectors, that were overpriced prior to the earnings warnings were now better bargains after the sell-off. The concern was that the incredible earnings story, which played a big role in the stock market's double-digit gains over the last three years, will face its toughest year in a decade because of the Asian economic meltdown and the weak pricing environment dogging many companies. Also, the risk is that the inflation-fighting Federal Reserve could bring the curtain down on the red-hot market. ``Business cycles do not die of natural death and in the end the Fed is the instrument of change for the economy,''said Stephen Roach, chief economist for Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. What's ahead, he said, is a classic late business cycle phenomena where the economy grows too fast for too long, the labor market gets too tight, and wages rise, squeezing profit margins. At this stage, inflation picks up speed and the Fed has to chase prices down. The Fed last raised interest rates in March 1997 in a bid to keep the fast-growing economy from overheating. Now, there are signs the economy is still on a roll after seven years of expansion, and the risk is that inflation will build with the jobless rate the lowest in nearly 25 years. The job market may be getting even tighter. The government reported this week that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits hit a six-month low. ``With fundamentals as solid as they are right now, it's very clear the economy will grow more rapidly than expected ... and that could bring a classic late business cycle monetary tightening by the Fed, which will cause problems in late 1999 and early 2000,'' said Roach. He believes the Fed is ``going to have to move'' starting in the second half of this year. Roach expects the key Fed fund rate will end the year at 6 percent and will move up to 6.50 percent by the first half of 1999. The short-term lending rate now stands at 5.50 percent. Until then, Wall Street should enjoy the good times. ``The Dow should rally to 9,000 in the near term,'' he said. ``But by year-end, stocks will be down to 7,000.'' Kaufman said the stock market has ignored all the danger signs and could be blindsighted by a bad turn in the economy, ``People are talking about the lack of inflation but they have to keep in mind that self-correcting mechanisms in the economy can come out of the blue,'' he said. Wall Street could be in for a shock because it has not seen the downside of a business cycle since 1990, Kaufman said. ``The market is up nine to 10 percent so far this year and certainly the economy, corporate profits, dividends and the U.S. position in world trade have not improved that much over the last 2-1/2 months,'' Kaufman said. George Nickas, a trader at Saul Stone Inc. said investors are being drawn to the stock market because it is the ``only game in town.'' Money market funds are paying out only five percent, currency markets are lackluster and commodities are flat. ``The flow of investment money is still going into stocks and it's the only place that the public wants to put its cash,'' he said. ``People are in a rush to put a lot of money in a market that can't expand as fast as the cash that's pouring in and the scramble is creating a shortage of stocks,'' Nickas said. ``There are just so many blue chip stocks such as IBM, and everybody wants to own a piece of it and the law of supply and demand tells you that the price must go up,'' he said. Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information tfish@spiritone.com WWW http://www.spiritone.com/~tfish -- See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 14 Mar 1998 15:18:06 -0800 (PST) From: Chip Anderson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Dow Transports (not CS) Re: Heavy Construction and Transportation Equipment - The good folks at S&P consider "Machinery (Diversified)" (i.e., CAT, Deere, etc.) and "Trucks & Parts" (i.e., Navistar, PACCAR, etc.) to both be in the Capital Goods sector. I've posted a breakdown of the various S&P sectors by industry with some sample stocks on my site - http://coolhistory.com/ChipsCharts . You can see the breakdown by using the link at the top of the "Sector Charts" page. Lower down on the "Sector Charts" page, you'll also find a chart and my thoughts for the Transportation sector. With the current explosion in the Consumer Cyclicals sector, everyone should be watching the Transports for signs of life very soon. Hope this helps, Chip http://coolhistory.com/ChipsCharts - ---"Frank V. Wolynski" wrote: > > At 16:33 3/14/98 EST, DCSquires wrote: > >Hi all, > > > >I was wondering what the group thought about the transportation sector. As I > >was doing my weekly index review I noticed a huge number of negative > >divergences in the Dow Tranies. MACD histogram, Momentum and RSI are all > >diverging from price. Couple that with distribution at each attempt at a new > >high in the OCT-JAN base and some serious selling in February. Then you have > >the unbelievable fundementals with the price of oil falling hard.(Reminds me > >of the day rates are going to the moon senario for the drillers) With so many > >divirgences I would be willing to bet 10 oil is already in these stocks. Any > >thoughts? > > > >DSquires > > > >- > > \'...bet 10 oil is already in...\', if you mean that the price of oil has > already been discounted, I couldn\'t agree more. The current chatter on > CNBC is that the Airlines are projecting continuing rising ticket sales > and don\'t see an end in sight! I would be willing to bet 10 that the > current buyers in the group are new and not adding more to already > established positions. I don\'t like groups that have as many divergences > as you\'ve spotted. I wonder if this is a secret? :-) > > On another subject: > WON\'s HTMMIS, page 67, last paragraph: > "For example, railroad equipment, machinery, and other capital > goods industries are late movers in a business or stock market > cycle. This knowledge can help you determine what stage of the > current market perioed you are in. When these groups start > running up, you know you\'re near the tail end." > > Past 6 weeks shows the best performance put in by Heavy Construction! > 4th place was taken by: Transportation Equipment. > > Anyone know as to whether the two are considered capital goods group members? > > Frank Wolynski > ( I am often wrong, plan accordingly.) > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 14 Mar 1998 17:49:34 -0800 From: Mike Lucero Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Windows on Wall Street/Quotes-Plus Quotes-Plus says "Revenues and earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.", though, so I'd think that includes one-time charges. Perhaps there's disagreement over what constitutes extraordinary items. Quotes-Plus gets their fundamentals from a third party, which should be keeping up with the earnings reports. Mike On Saturday, March 14, 1998 5:11 AM, Craig Griffin [SMTP:cagriffin@mindspring.com] wrote: > Mike, > > Thank you for your reports on QP ver 2 beta! I can't wait to see it and > make use of it (QP ver 1 is very nice already). > > By the way, the discrepancies in the eps data in the second quarter (the > .08 vs .30) is because of the smart way DG reports eps. If you go back to > the actual report on Yahoo at > http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/97/07/29/acpd_actn_1.html you will see that there > was a one time charge for $5,000,000. DG recognizes one time charges (as > opposed to other kinds of adjustments) and factors them out of their EPS > reports. This gives a truer picture of EPS for the quarter (IMO). I have > noticed this multiple times in the past. DG often reports different > numbers than everybody else for this reason. Everytime I have compared the > differences, I have liked the DG numbers better for purposes of investment > evaluation. > > Because it would probably take actually looking at each report to factor > out one time charges, I doubt QP will be able to do it (too time consuming > with 9000 companies reporting every quarter). > > Please feel free to forward this info to QP and/or DG. > > Best regards, > Craig > > You wrote: > >I did notice discrepancies between their eps data and Daily Graphs Online, > >so I sent them and DGO a piece of mail about it. For instance, the last 4 > >quarters eps for ACTN show as: > > > >QuotesPlus 0.17 0.08 0.31 0.22. > >Daily Graphs Online 0.17 0.30 0.31 0.23 > >Microsoft Investor 0.17 0.08 0.33 0.23. > > > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 14 Mar 1998 18:38:15 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Scanning Software > Date: Sat, 14 Mar 1998 10:21:24 -0600 > From: JOHN ENGLAND > Can I get some help on Purchasing a scanning software. I already bought > Windows On > Wall street about 30 days ago. I can use it with Canslim method.The > cheaper the better. > Is there possibly a service that includes software and data information > online for a monthly fee(reasonable fee) Any help is greatly > appreciated. Telescan would seem to be exactly what you are looking for, but expensive. Probably at their website you could get some dope on them. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Mar 1998 09:31:52 EST From: Eccless Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PK In a message dated 98-03-13 13:06:44 EST, kom@alum.mit.edu writes: << PK is breaking out. Any opinion? >> I took a look at this on BigCharts.com. If you check out the on-balance volume (OBV) on the three-month chart you will see the OBV go up sharply. Then check the money flow. It goes down sharply. I'm not sure what to make of this situation, but it would make me hesitant. Douglas Herman - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Mar 1998 09:31:49 EST From: Eccless Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LCI International In a message dated 98-03-14 12:39:35 EST, stkguru@netside.net writes: << Me personally, I usually sell on the news or shortly thereafter unless I have reason to expect a competitive bid from another company and a bidding war to start (you can tell if the mkt expects this if your stock trades over the value that you would get from the offer on the table). The only time I varied from this was when I owned a buyout company where there was a "residual" payment, which eventually added up to nearly an addl 6% over the cash buyout. >> Thanks for your thoughtful comments, Tom. They make a lot of sense. I will sell LCI in the second hour of trading on Monday. Douglas Herman - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Mar 1998 15:55:50 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Watchlist picks SKYW 79 98 A. Close to new high. Breakout last Fri. OATS 75 98 A 4 x ADV last Fri FSFH 75 91 A. Basing near high. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Mar 1998 10:25:19 -0500 From: Bill Subject: [CANSLIM] MKIE PTIS AZR Any one have the CS numbers for MKIE, PTIS, AZR? All of them had volume spikes on 3/13/98. Opinions please. Thanks. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Mar 1998 16:33:09 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MKIE PTIS AZR At 10:25 AM 15-03-98 -0500, you wrote: >Any one have the CS numbers for MKIE, PTIS, AZR? All of them had volume >spikes on 3/13/98. Opinions please. Thanks. MKIE 69 26 D ADV 16K Bye bye... PTIS 99 64 A GRS 5 Timel: C There are better stocks to put your money in IMHO. AZR 37 83 B 2.5x ADV on Fri Interesting chart. Nrs not so hot. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Mar 1998 10:33:32 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ Thanks for the feedback. I do agree that the wedge suggests "negative", but am biased in that the stock got so far ahead of itself. The tidy drying up of volume offsets a good bit of this aspect. I have never tried to apply a 2X 200DMA rule, I generally find on a well performing stock that it can stay 2X or more for very long periods. I look more to the 50dma for support on a correction, and the 10dma for extremely short term indicators. I also think many of those that bot at the extreme highs (17 or so and higher) have already exited the stock when the momentum played out, accounting for some of the volume when it finally corrected. There have been several strong attempts to rally since the first correction, and I am reading the absence of volume now as an indication that the selling is over. But we won't know till the next attempt to rally. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: DCSquires To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Saturday, March 14, 1998 2:50 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ >In a message dated 98-03-14 13:10:27 EST, you write: > ><< If anyone can see a negative (aside from A/D > dropping from A to B), please let me know as I can't find a reason right now > not to buy it if it makes a breakout signal again >> > >I have been watching this one too. There are 3 things that bother me about it. >First, there are a ton of losers in this stock from the week of 2-23. These >people had quick loses too which always intensifies the get out even syndrome. >Also, the pattern is a decending triangle which I'm sure you know is >bearish...... the volume dry-up is nice though. Finally, and this is a biggy >for me, the stock is more than 2X its 200 day MA which would now be 16.50. >Aggresive mutual funds tend to sell part of their postion in the area. If you >look at CBSL, THQI, CYMI, SMOD, LHSPF, AVEI all of these stocks stalled in >that area. It doesn't always work but I like to play the probabilities and at >2x the 200 DMA the prob. of higher prices is usually not good. Exceptions are >ALK, YHOO and some of the other internet stocks. Excesive froth often negates >the rule. >DSquires > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Mar 1998 10:43:47 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Dow Transports (not CS) There's an interesting contradiction to what WON says in that the "leading" group coming out of a recession (yeah, I know, it's been a nr of years since we could measure this) is the Transportation sector. This is because as economic activity picks up, both raw materials and finished products have to be transported. It certainly held true when we began this current and ongoing economic expansion. Capital goods are generally described as consumer goods with a life expectancy of over three years. These include things like refrigerators and cars, but don't know if also include railroad equipment or machinery. I think these are counted separately. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski To: canslim@lists.xmission.com ; canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Saturday, March 14, 1998 4:52 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Dow Transports (not CS) >On another subject: >WON's HTMMIS, page 67, last paragraph: >"For example, railroad equipment, machinery, and other capital >goods industries are late movers in a business or stock market >cycle. This knowledge can help you determine what stage of the >current market perioed you are in. When these groups start >running up, you know you're near the tail end." > >Past 6 weeks shows the best performance put in by Heavy Construction! >4th place was taken by: Transportation Equipment. > >Anyone know as to whether the two are considered capital goods group members? > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Mar 1998 10:58:42 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] End of Market Cycle (was: Re: Dow Transports) I have been saying it for a long time, and will continue to say it, those bound to try and apply historic patterns are destined to be wrong most of the time in this mkt. We have been in the "last act of a three act play" for several years now. Yes, eventually one of these warnings will prove to be correct, but how many so far have been wrong? We have been in a "tight labor market" for nearly two years now, certainly well below the unemployment levels that historically have caused inflation, and eventual Fed rate hikes. Why has inflation failed to cooperate and go up? Simply, increased productivity combined with greater competition, keeping price creep down. At the same time, this higher employment has finally led to Americans increasing their meagre savings rate, mostly by putting more money into mutual funds or 401 plans. This money has to be invested somewhere. To date, the slump in economic growth from the Asian flu has yet to be seen. It's probably there, but has been offset by continued strong domestic demand, and more recently, export activity largely to Europe. Even the companies with strong Asian presence have yet to show the significant drop in sales expected, rather they have cut prices to compete. That has impacted earnings forecasts, but has not yet shown significant cutbacks in mfr'ing activity or caused massive job layoffs. Is Dow 30 at 9000 possible this year? Certainly, we are not that far away and have already passed a number of forecasters estimates. Is it possible to correct back to 7000? Certainly, it's the stock mkt after all, but I wouldn't expect it to stay there long, and it would likely be viewed as another buying opportunity. Any statements or opinions are strictly my own and not that of my employer. My comments should not be interpreted as a recommendation of any kind. I am a licensed (inactive) broker and an active investor. All investors should do their own research prior to any investment, especially one learned about on the Internet. Hopefully my comments will better inform and educate all investors. tom w - -----Original Message----- From: Tim Fisher To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Saturday, March 14, 1998 5:59 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] End of Market Cycle (was: Re: Dow Transports) >Found this on Yahoo. Different reasons, same punchline. Some of these "7000 >byt he end of the year" guys must work for Morgan Stanley. They said the >same thing last Feb and Oct. > >Friday March 13, 8:38 pm Eastern Time > >Stock market in last act of three act play? > >By Pierre Belec > >NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters) - Wall Street is still in love with the stock >market, but some experts say investors should enjoy it while they >can. This may be the last act of a three-act play. > >Just when it seemed that the earnings reality was finally sinking in, stocks > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Mar 1998 11:02:25 -0500 From: Bill Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ Sorry, you lost me on that 200DMA comparison. I looked at the 200 DMA for EPIQ and compared that with ALK and find no significant difference to confirm an exception. Please elaborate. Thanks. Bill-->> At 2:51 PM -0500 3/14/98, DCSquires wrote: >In a message dated 98-03-14 13:10:27 EST, you write: > >Finally, and this is a biggy >for me, the stock is more than 2X its 200 day MA which would now be 16.50. >Aggresive mutual funds tend to sell part of their postion in the area. If you >look at CBSL, THQI, CYMI, SMOD, LHSPF, AVEI all of these stocks stalled in >that area. It doesn't always work but I like to play the probabilities and at >2x the 200 DMA the prob. of higher prices is usually not good. Exceptions are >ALK, YHOO and some of the other internet stocks. Excesive froth often negates >the rule. >DSquires > >- - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Mar 1998 11:41:59 -0500 From: "Bud Barton" Subject: [CANSLIM] Free Research Site This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0016_01BD5007.5D90B640 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I am not sure if everyone knows about this sit but I have found it = useful. http://www.rapidresearch.com/ - ------=_NextPart_000_0016_01BD5007.5D90B640 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
I am not sure if everyone knows = about this sit=20 but I have found it useful.
 
http://www.rapidresearch.com/<= /FONT>
- ------=_NextPart_000_0016_01BD5007.5D90B640-- - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Mar 1998 12:01:07 EST From: DCSquires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ In a message dated 98-03-15 11:03:21 EST, you write: << Sorry, you lost me on that 200DMA comparison. I looked at the 200 DMA for EPIQ and compared that with ALK and find no significant difference to confirm an exception. Please elaborate. Thanks. >> I don't have access to my charting program so forgive me if this is vague. EPIQ is an incredibly powerful stock and is actually basing above 2x the 200 day MA. I think this rule could be ignored with this stock since it is low priced and many funds have not gotten in yet. It is definetly an exception. Looking at BigC it does appear that ALK is not a exception. Sorry for the confusion. One last thing about this rule of thumb, for low priced stocks, those under 12 bucks, I ignore this rule. I normally don't buy these types of stocks partly because of WON and mostly because setting stop loss points is very difficult. Two I am in now are THNK and HDWY. DSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 15 Mar 1998 12:54:44 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] End of Market Cycle (was: Re: Dow Transports) At 10:58 3/15/98 -0500, Tom Worley wrote: >I have been saying it for a long time, and will continue to say it, those >bound to try and apply historic patterns are destined to be wrong most of >the time in this mkt. We have been in the "last act of a three act play" for >several years now. Yes, eventually one of these warnings will prove to be >correct, but how many so far have been wrong? > Thanks for a complete and comprehensive analysis of "End of Market Cycle". My initial post was intended to elicit this sort of explanation. After careful review of the Groups making 'noises' as though it were end of Market, I have realized, they have done this before and simply based from that move. Too many other groups/companies doing very well and appear to have bright futures. Six year Rip Van Winkle mode off! Thanks again, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #147 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.