From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1641 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Sunday, September 2 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1641 In this issue: [CANSLIM] Sending large or non-text files to the canslim group Re: [CANSLIM] how do I find out about "N" Re: [CANSLIM] how do I find out about "N" Re: [CANSLIM] how do I find out about "N" Re: [CANSLIM] how do I find out about "N" Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 2 Sep 2001 08:00:00 -0600 From: owner-canslim@xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Sending large or non-text files to the canslim group Everyone, There are times when you may wish to share large or non-text files with our group (i.e. gif, jpeg, spreadsheets, etc). Our list is configured to reject large and non-text postings (even if they are properly encoded) since both large files and non-text files cause various problems. This does not mean you cannot share large or non-text files with the group. Rather, you should place the file at an ftp site, and then refer to the link in your canslim posting. This way, the reader can read your posting, click on the link, and instantly see what you are talking about. If you have your own ftp site, feel free to use it. If you do not have access to your own ftp site, we have provided an anonymous ftp site. To provide your file to the group, please follow these instructions: 1. Send your file to: "ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/". See ftp instructions below. 2. After a minimum of 15 minutes, your file will be available for everyone at the URL of: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/your_file_name where "your_file_name" is the exact name of the file you uploaded. This file name should not have spaces or other strange characters. Letter, numbers, and "." are always good, i.e. "canslim_25.gif". 3. Before posting your message to the group, test the URL of your file by copying the web address: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/your_file_name into your browser and seeing if your browser displays the file properly. 4. Finally, send your message to the group describing your file, and be sure to explicity include the URL of your file. Although this may seem unwieldy at first, it really isn't too bad and it solves more problems than it creates. If you have any problems with this procedure, feel free to contact me at owner-canslim@xmission.com. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury =========================================================================== Netscape FTP Instructions: 123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012 1. Using Netscape, go to the URL: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ 2. On the Netscape "File" menu, select "Upload File..." This will open a file selection widget on your hard-drive. Select the file you wish to upload and hit the "Ok" button. At this point, your file will be uploaded. 3. Eventhough your file has been uploaded, you will not be able to see the file in your netscape browser. The reason for this is that the "incoming" directory is set to write-only for security reasons. Internet Explorer FTP Instructions: 1. Using "Internet Explorer", go to the URL: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ 2. Open "Windows Explorer" to browse your local hard-drive. Find the file you want to send. Select the file by clicking once. The right-click and "copy" the file. 3. Go back to the Internet Explorer window. Right-click and "paste" the file. It will be uploaded to the canslim ftp site. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 2 Sep 2001 10:00:40 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how do I find out about "N" Tom: I read your E-mail and appreciated the reply. It prompted me to examine stocks that I'm looking at in light of earnings and sales, and relating them to whether or not there is a new CEO. An example would be easier to explain. And here it is: DVA---In the past several quarters sales have been stagnant to marginally increasing. Meanwhile, earnings have Really taken off. Since DG ignores extraordinary earnings (earnings that are unrelated to the business), I wondered why earnings were skyrocketing even as sales fell or rose a bit. As I said your E-mail prompted me to look to see if a new CEO had been appointed in the recent past. And sure enough a new CEO had been appointed in October of 1999. It was nice that you responded to my E-mail on the "N" in CANSLIM. However, your E-mail will also be responsible for me analyzing stocks differently (and I believe, with more insight) in the future. Many thanks for the "unintended consequences". I am posting this to the CANSLIM forum (even though my "thanks" might be off subject) because this supplemental way of analyzing stocks might prove to be useful to other CANSLIMMERS. jans In a message dated 8/31/2001 11:34:03 PM Eastern Daylight Time, stkguru@netside.net writes: << WON puts a lot of importance on a new CEO, that's why it's in the data block. Historically, he found that the company's stock makes a positive price move after a new CEO takes over. Usually happens within 2 years, and often sooner. He brings in new ideas and ways of running the business, as well as not having any sacred cows he will not consider cutting out if they don't contribute to the business. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message ----- From: Spencer48@aol.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Friday, August 31, 2001 4:54 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how do I find out about "N" Harvey: The trouble is, one just doesn't know if the new CEO will be better than the old CEO (but I guess some information is better than no information, because-if one has the time and energy-one can always look up the new CEO's past achievments). jans >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 02 Sep 2001 09:16:58 -0500 From: Gene Ricci Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how do I find out about "N" This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0586_01C13390.04902FB0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Tom, what weight do you place on IBD's SMR rating? I was 'told' by a = strict CANSLIM user that SMR of A or B would satisfy 'N'. Gene ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, August 31, 2001 10:45 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how do I find out about "N" No simple answer to that, Neal. In most cases, it means doing some = homework, and understanding something of what they do. One stock I = bought, I satisfied the "N" because they had a nine month order backlog = and growing. Figured if the people that understood what they did liked = it that much, I didn't have to understand it. Another company I bought = was described by others as setting the standard for their industry. With = business growing, again I didn't feel the need to completely understand = what they did (I did understand it as it happens, but would have bought = anyway).=20 "N" is also satisfied by a New high, one of the reasons I only look at = stocks making new highs. I have automatically satisfied the "N", and can = concentrate on the other six letters. And if they are hitting a new high = because they really have something new and competitive, all the better. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Neal Frankle=20 To: Jeff Salisbury=20 Sent: Friday, August 31, 2001 11:36 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] how do I find out about "N" The CANSLIM system is great for many reasons - its pretty easy to = decipher CA SLIM (IMHO). But how do I find out about something NEW the = company is doing? How do I determine that the "N" is important enough = to qualify for the stock to be a CANSLIM candidate? Thanks, Neal - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_0586_01C13390.04902FB0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Tom, what weight do you place on IBD's = SMR=20 rating? I was 'told' by a strict CANSLIM user that SMR of A or B would = satisfy=20 'N'.
 
Gene
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom = Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Friday, August 31, 2001 = 10:45=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how do I = find out=20 about "N"

No simple answer to that, Neal.  In most = cases, it=20 means doing some homework, and understanding something of what they = do. One=20 stock I bought, I satisfied the "N" because they had a nine month = order=20 backlog and growing. Figured if the people that understood what they = did liked=20 it that much, I didn't have to understand it. Another company I bought = was=20 described by others as setting the standard for their industry. With = business=20 growing, again I didn't feel the need to completely understand what = they did=20 (I did understand it as it happens, but would have bought anyway).=20
 
"N" is also satisfied by a New high, one of the = reasons I=20 only look at stocks making new highs. I have automatically satisfied = the "N",=20 and can concentrate on the other six letters. And if they are hitting = a new=20 high because they really have something new and competitive, all the=20 better.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Neal=20 Frankle
Sent: Friday, August 31, 2001 = 11:36=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] how do I = find out=20 about "N"

The CANSLIM system is great for many reasons - its = pretty=20 easy to decipher CA SLIM (IMHO).  But how do I find out about = something=20 NEW the company is doing?  How do I determine that the "N" is = important=20 enough to qualify for the stock to be a CANSLIM=20 candidate?

Thanks,
Neal

-
-To = subscribe/unsubscribe,=20 email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your = email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_0586_01C13390.04902FB0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 2 Sep 2001 15:52:26 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how do I find out about "N" This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0030_01C133C7.4383BCA0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Glad to help, jans, I sometimes forget some of the things I do in = "mental background". Looking at the "new CEO" box is one of them. It's = so unconscious and habititual, I never thought to mention it before. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Spencer48@aol.com=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, September 02, 2001 10:00 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how do I find out about "N" Tom: I read your E-mail and appreciated the reply. It prompted me to = examine=20 stocks that I'm looking at in light of earnings and sales, and = relating them=20 to whether or not there is a new CEO. An example would be easier to explain. And here it is: DVA---In = the=20 past several quarters sales have been stagnant to marginally = increasing. =20 Meanwhile, earnings have Really taken off. Since DG ignores = extraordinary=20 earnings (earnings that are unrelated to the business), I wondered why = earnings were skyrocketing even as sales fell or rose a bit. As I said your E-mail prompted me to look to see if a new CEO had = been=20 appointed in the recent past. And sure enough a new CEO had been = appointed=20 in October of 1999. =20 It was nice that you responded to my E-mail on the "N" in = CANSLIM. =20 However, your E-mail will also be responsible for me analyzing stocks=20 differently (and I believe, with more insight) in the future. Many = thanks=20 for the "unintended consequences". I am posting this to the CANSLIM forum (even though my "thanks" = might be=20 off subject) because this supplemental way of analyzing stocks might = prove to=20 be useful to other CANSLIMMERS. jans =20 In a message dated 8/31/2001 11:34:03 PM Eastern Daylight Time,=20 stkguru@netside.net writes: << WON puts a lot of importance on a new CEO, that's why it's in the = data=20 block. Historically, he found that the company's stock makes a = positive=20 price move after a new CEO takes over. Usually happens within 2 years, = and=20 often sooner. He brings in new ideas and ways of running the business, = as=20 well as not having any sacred cows he will not consider cutting out if = they=20 don't contribute to the business. =20 Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley =20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Spencer48@aol.com=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, August 31, 2001 4:54 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how do I find out about "N" =20 =20 Harvey: =20 The trouble is, one just doesn't know if the new CEO will be = better=20 than=20 the old CEO (but I guess some information is better than no = information,=20 because-if one has the time and energy-one can always look up the = new=20 CEO's=20 past achievments). =20 jans =20 >> - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_0030_01C133C7.4383BCA0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Glad to help, jans, I sometimes forget some of the = things I do=20 in "mental background". Looking at the "new CEO" box is one of them. = It's so=20 unconscious and habititual, I never thought to mention it = before.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Spencer48@aol.com
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com =
Sent: Sunday, September 02, = 2001 10:00=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how do I = find out=20 about "N"

Tom:

     I read your E-mail = and=20 appreciated the reply.  It prompted me to examine
stocks that = I'm=20 looking at in light of earnings and sales, and relating them
to = whether or=20 not there is a new CEO.

     An example = would be=20 easier to explain.  And here it is:  DVA---In the
past = several=20 quarters sales have been stagnant to marginally increasing. =20
Meanwhile, earnings have Really taken off.  Since DG ignores=20 extraordinary
earnings (earnings that are unrelated to the = business), I=20 wondered why
earnings were skyrocketing even as sales fell or rose = a=20 bit.

     As I said your E-mail prompted me = to look=20 to see if a new CEO had been
appointed in the recent past.  = And sure=20 enough a new CEO had been appointed
in October of 1999. =20

     It was nice that you responded to my = E-mail=20 on  the "N" in CANSLIM. 
However, your E-mail will also = be=20 responsible for me analyzing stocks
differently (and I believe, = with more=20 insight) in the future.  Many thanks
for the "unintended=20 consequences".

     I am posting this to = the=20 CANSLIM forum (even though my "thanks" might be
off subject) = because this=20 supplemental way of analyzing stocks might prove to
be useful to = other=20 CANSLIMMERS.

jans

     =



In a=20 message dated 8/31/2001 11:34:03 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
stkguru@netside.net=20 writes:

<< WON puts a lot of importance on a new CEO, = that's why=20 it's in the data
block.  Historically, he found that the = company's=20 stock makes a positive
price move after a new CEO takes over. = Usually=20 happens within 2 years, and
often sooner. He brings in new ideas = and ways=20 of running the business, as
well as not having any sacred cows he = will not=20 consider cutting out if they
don't contribute to the=20 business.
 
 Tom Worley
 stkguru@netside.net
 AIM:= =20 TexWorley
 
   ----- Original Message -----=20
   From: Spencer48@aol.com =
   To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
   Sent: Friday, August 31, 2001 4:54 PM
   = Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how do I find out about=20 "N"
 
 
  =20 Harvey:
 
        The = trouble=20 is, one just doesn't know if the new CEO will be better
than=20
   the old CEO (but I guess some information is better = than no=20 information,
   because-if one has the time and = energy-one can=20 always look up the new
CEO's
   past=20 achievments).
 
   jans
 
 =20 >>

-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_0030_01C133C7.4383BCA0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 2 Sep 2001 16:01:36 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how do I find out about "N" This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_003A_01C133C8.8B741180 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Gene, I have not heard that, so cannot confirm it, but I do not see where the = components of SMR (sales, pre tax and post tax margins, and ROE) would = meet WON's general definitions of "N".=20 I do not use SMR, in part because it is so new, but mostly because I = prefer to look at its components individually. And in the case of sales, = I like to look beyond 3 quarters and view the last 8 in perspective of = the resulting earnings. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Gene Ricci=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, September 02, 2001 10:16 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how do I find out about "N" Tom, what weight do you place on IBD's SMR rating? I was 'told' by a = strict CANSLIM user that SMR of A or B would satisfy 'N'. =20 Gene ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, August 31, 2001 10:45 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how do I find out about "N" No simple answer to that, Neal. In most cases, it means doing some = homework, and understanding something of what they do. One stock I = bought, I satisfied the "N" because they had a nine month order backlog = and growing. Figured if the people that understood what they did liked = it that much, I didn't have to understand it. Another company I bought = was described by others as setting the standard for their industry. With = business growing, again I didn't feel the need to completely understand = what they did (I did understand it as it happens, but would have bought = anyway).=20 "N" is also satisfied by a New high, one of the reasons I only look = at stocks making new highs. I have automatically satisfied the "N", and = can concentrate on the other six letters. And if they are hitting a new = high because they really have something new and competitive, all the = better. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Neal Frankle=20 To: Jeff Salisbury=20 Sent: Friday, August 31, 2001 11:36 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] how do I find out about "N" The CANSLIM system is great for many reasons - its pretty easy to = decipher CA SLIM (IMHO). But how do I find out about something NEW the = company is doing? How do I determine that the "N" is important enough = to qualify for the stock to be a CANSLIM candidate? Thanks, Neal - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_003A_01C133C8.8B741180 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Gene,
 
I have not heard that, so cannot confirm it, but I = do not see=20 where the components of SMR (sales, pre tax and post tax margins, and = ROE) would=20 meet WON's general definitions of "N".
 
I do not use SMR, in part because it is so new, but = mostly=20 because I prefer to look at its components individually. And in the case = of=20 sales, I like to look beyond 3 quarters and view the last 8 in = perspective of=20 the resulting earnings.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Gene = Ricci
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com =
Sent: Sunday, September 02, = 2001 10:16=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how do I = find out=20 about "N"

Tom, what weight do you place on = IBD's SMR=20 rating? I was 'told' by a strict CANSLIM user that SMR of A or B would = satisfy=20 'N'.
 
Gene
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom=20 Worley
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com =
Sent: Friday, August 31, 2001 = 10:45=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] how do = I find=20 out about "N"

No simple answer to that, Neal.  In most = cases, it=20 means doing some homework, and understanding something of what they = do. One=20 stock I bought, I satisfied the "N" because they had a nine month = order=20 backlog and growing. Figured if the people that understood what they = did=20 liked it that much, I didn't have to understand it. Another company = I bought=20 was described by others as setting the standard for their industry. = With=20 business growing, again I didn't feel the need to completely = understand what=20 they did (I did understand it as it happens, but would have bought = anyway).=20
 
"N" is also satisfied by a New high, one of the = reasons I=20 only look at stocks making new highs. I have automatically satisfied = the=20 "N", and can concentrate on the other six letters. And if they are = hitting a=20 new high because they really have something new and competitive, all = the=20 better.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Neal=20 Frankle
To: Jeff Salisbury
Sent: Friday, August 31, = 2001 11:36=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] how do I = find out=20 about "N"

The CANSLIM system is great for many reasons - its = pretty=20 easy to decipher CA SLIM (IMHO).  But how do I find out about = something NEW the company is doing?  How do I determine that = the "N"=20 is important enough to qualify for the stock to be a CANSLIM=20 candidate?

Thanks,
Neal

-
-To = subscribe/unsubscribe,=20 email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= =20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe=20 canslim".  Do not use quotes in your=20 email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_003A_01C133C8.8B741180-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 2 Sep 2001 20:40:08 -0700 From: "Ian" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0053_01C133EF.74746530 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Tom: I am intrigued to see NCPM on your list. They, along with ASFI, have to = be poster-children for cash cows in the current economy ... don't they? Ian ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Saturday, September 01, 2001 11:14 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview EARNINGS WARNINGS AND PROSPECTS FOR THE THIRD QUARTER As of Monday, more companies had already given a negative earnings = warning about the current quarter than was seen in the record breaking = 1st quarter (246 to 162). At the start of July, analyst's expectations = were for a drop of about 6% in earnings for the S&P 500 companies, now = that has already grown to over 12%. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- BANKRUPTCY FILINGS AND THE ECONOMY Bankruptcy filings during the second quarter are on track to break the = record last set in 1998. A total of 400,394 filings were made, up 25%. = Of this, Chapter 7 filings accounted for over 70% and up 30%. Fear of = new legislation that may hinder filing Ch. 7 may be part of the reason, = but any effect from that is over 6 months away. Meanwhile, personal = total debt to income ratios continue to worsen from 1.14 in 1983 to 1.63 = in year 2000. One research firm estimates that 43.7 million US = households have less than $1,000 in liquid net assets, and that 16.3 = million households have a zero or negative net worth. I think I will = hang on to EPIQ a while longer, looks like a growth industry to me, = especially with them taking business away from their only real = competitor for bankruptcy trustee software.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- And on Tuesday we're supposed to be cheered up by an Intel exec being = quoted saying . "Almost by definition, anything has to be better than = the first half," ???=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- JAPANESE ECONOMIC CRISES Japanese banks begin valuing their portfolios on a mark-to-market = basis on September 30. Best indications are that most banks are no = longer carrying large unreported paper losses. Will be interesting to = find out. With the market there continuing to slide to a 17 year low, = and now closing well under 11,000, it's hard to believe the banks are = making any money on their stock portfolios. And one financial market is = upgrading their system to permit trading with negative interest rates. = It's unlikely to ever be used, but with rates already so low, they want = to be ready just in case. The Japanese Financial Minister estimates that = current bad loan levels will persist until 2003, and it will take 7 = years just to cut the bad loan volume in half from its present $145 = billion. And the expectation of a plunge to 10,000 on the NIKKEI is = apparently already being taken as a given. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- SEMICONDUCTORS Read a good article by Michael Kramer this week, if still available = you can find it at=20 http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010829/tp104470.html Says if this industry was Reality TV, the manufacturers would be = playing "Survivor" to see who next gets kicked off the island. Hynix = Semi, 3rd largest world wide, failed to pay over $300 million in = maturing bonds trying to force creditors owning over $1 billion in debt = to roll it over into new bonds. Meanwhile, the benchmark 64 bit DRAM = chip has fallen from over $9 last summer to around a buck. Profitability = apparently kicks in around $3.00. Worldwide revenue this year from DRAM = chip sales is expected to drop 55%.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- WHERE THERE'S SMOKE, THERE'S PROBABLY A FIRE! While Japan has accepted in principal an audit by IMF into it's = situation with bad loans by Japanese banks, it has so far steadfastly = managed to avoid complying. Many analysts suspect the situation is far = worse than publicly acknowledged ($362 billion - note, another article = put it at only $145 billion, all depends on how you define "bad loans") = by the Japanese government. The Audit / Investigation applies to all 183 = members of the IMF, and 13 have already completed the process (USA = apparently not among them). Japan claims inadequate staffing to do it. = Meanwhile this # 2 economy globally continues to set new 17 record lows = on its exchange (doing it again tonight, which is Friday already in = Japan, down way over 1% and continuing to head for the 10,000 level) and = has an unemployment rate at 5% which is the highest since stats were = started in the '50s.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- DGO LIST Overall list dropped substantially, no surprise given the 4-5% decline = in most indexes last week. Total was 194, down from 248. Despite that = sizable drop in quantity to review, the number passing my visual screen = greatly increased, as did the quality of those charts. The spreadsheet with data will follow separately. I am using a new shorthand this week, the pound symbol (#) after the = stock symbol means I have it in my VR mutual fund MDCI # - B2 GISX # - B/O failed CEDC - B4 ASW - B2 SLNK - possibly completing a decent short term cup STRC - nice one week handle on a "ok" cup FSM - B3+, still no volume FHRX - B2 SCVL - broke the pivot on volume Wednesday DKWD - B2 AGM - B2 SFD - saucer APPB - b/o Thursday on volume AAON - B4+ HRB - continues its LLUR ways after reporting reduced losses on higher = revenues FSRV - handle on the small cup appears to be trending up on light = volume TOO - B2 KG - consolidation FCB - B3+, no volume AZO - 7 week consolidation IBKC - B7, very tight base MATW - B5 OFIX - b/o failed, but didn't quite return to the over 4 week base NRIM - B12 ATK - B2 STW - B2 ALLY - decent cup completed, handle starting KMP - 3 week handle on a very shallow cup, more of a saucer FTO - nice clean b/o on 3X ADV on Wednesday from a very smooth cup, = just over pivot JBX - B2 ANSS - B5+ BBI - completed a triple bottom cup, working on the handle GFF - LLUR KPP - B2 HRL - B8 NEP - B4 CNJ - B3 PCC - B2 EFX - LLUR??? PTV - B3 WWW - B2+ NARA - B4 MCK - B3 AIM - B5, no volume AMMD - B7, volatile CITZ - B8+ STE - B7+ CBT - stealth b/o Friday from a saucer HCT - one week handle on a very smooth teacup, no volume but = impressive cash flow ATR - 2 week handle on the cup, cup relatively clean w/capitulation = day UBSI - B2 RBMG - B2 LSTR - B5 CARS - another handle building chart GBCI - B4+ CXIPY - B2 MKC - another one week handle on a saucer CYTC - B6 IVC - two week handle on a decent cup, handle a little too high CGI - B5+ CFFN - B2 SSD - B2+ NCPM - two week base on smooth cup, recent IPO WRNB - B3 TMK - LLUR Play it safe, play it on paper, and Happy Hunting, For those in the states, have a happy and safe Labor Day holiday, = drive safe and sober, =20 Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_000_0053_01C133EF.74746530 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Tom:
 
I am intrigued to see NCPM on your list. They, along = with=20 ASFI, have to be poster-children for cash cows in the current economy = ... don't=20 they?
 
Ian
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom = Worley=20
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Saturday, September 01, = 2001 11:14=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's = Weekend=20 Weeview

EARNINGS WARNINGS AND PROSPECTS FOR THE = THIRD=20 QUARTER
As of Monday, more companies had already given a = negative=20 earnings warning about the current quarter than was seen in the record = breaking 1st quarter (246 to 162). At the start of July, analyst's=20 expectations were for a drop of about 6% in earnings for the S&P = 500=20 companies, now that has already grown to over 12%.
BANKRUPTCY FILINGS AND THE ECONOMY
Bankruptcy filings during the second quarter are on track to = break the=20 record last set in 1998. A total of 400,394 filings were made, up 25%. = Of=20 this, Chapter 7 filings accounted for over 70% and up 30%. Fear of new = legislation that may hinder filing Ch. 7 may be part of the reason, = but any=20 effect from that is over 6 months away. Meanwhile, personal total debt = to=20 income ratios continue to worsen from 1.14 in 1983 to 1.63 in year = 2000. One=20 research firm estimates that 43.7 million US households have less than = $1,000=20 in liquid net assets, and that 16.3 million households have a zero or = negative=20 net worth. I think I will hang on to EPIQ a while longer, looks like a = growth=20 industry to me, especially with them taking business away from their = only real=20 competitor for bankruptcy trustee software.=20
And on Tuesday we're supposed to be cheered up by an Intel exec = being=20 quoted saying . "Almost by definition, anything has to be better than = the=20 first half," ???=20
JAPANESE ECONOMIC CRISES
Japanese banks begin valuing their portfolios on a mark-to-market = basis=20 on September 30. Best indications are that most banks are no longer = carrying=20 large unreported paper losses. Will be interesting to find out. With = the=20 market there continuing to slide to a 17 year low, and now closing = well under=20 11,000, it's hard to believe the banks are making any money on their = stock=20 portfolios. And one financial market is upgrading their system to = permit=20 trading with negative interest rates. It's unlikely to ever be used, = but with=20 rates already so low, they want to be ready just in case. The Japanese = Financial Minister estimates that current bad loan levels will persist = until=20 2003, and it will take 7 years just to cut the bad loan volume in half = from=20 its present $145 billion.  And the expectation of a plunge to = 10,000 on=20 the NIKKEI is apparently already being taken as a given.
SEMICONDUCTORS
Read a good article by Michael Kramer this week, if still = available you=20 can find it at
http://biz.yahoo.co= m/rf/010829/tp104470.html
Says if this industry was Reality TV, the manufacturers would be = playing=20 "Survivor" to see who next gets kicked off the island. Hynix Semi, 3rd = largest=20 world wide, failed to pay over $300 million in maturing bonds trying = to force=20 creditors owning over $1 billion in debt to roll it over into new = bonds.=20 Meanwhile, the benchmark 64 bit DRAM chip has fallen from over $9 last = summer=20 to around a buck. Profitability apparently kicks in around $3.00. = Worldwide=20 revenue this year from DRAM chip sales is expected to drop 55%.=20
WHERE THERE'S SMOKE, THERE'S PROBABLY A = FIRE!
While Japan has accepted in principal an audit by IMF into it's = situation=20 with bad loans by Japanese banks, it has so far steadfastly managed to = avoid=20 complying. Many analysts suspect the situation is far worse than = publicly=20 acknowledged ($362 billion - note, another article put it at only $145 = billion, all depends on how you define "bad loans") by the Japanese=20 government. The Audit / Investigation applies to all 183 members of = the IMF,=20 and 13 have already completed the process (USA apparently not among = them).=20 Japan claims inadequate staffing to do it. Meanwhile this # 2 economy = globally=20 continues to set new 17 record lows on its exchange (doing it again = tonight,=20 which is Friday already in Japan, down way over 1% and continuing to = head for=20 the 10,000 level) and has an unemployment rate at 5% which is the = highest=20 since stats were started in the '50s.=20
DGO LIST
Overall list dropped substantially, no surprise given the 4-5% = decline in=20 most indexes last week. Total was 194, down from 248. Despite that = sizable=20 drop in quantity to review, the number passing my visual screen = greatly=20 increased, as did the quality of those charts.
 
The spreadsheet with data will follow separately.
 
I am using a new shorthand this week, the pound symbol (#) after = the=20 stock symbol means I have it in my VR mutual fund
 
MDCI # - B2
GISX # - B/O failed
CEDC - B4
ASW - B2
SLNK - possibly completing a decent short term cup
STRC - nice one week handle on a "ok" cup
FSM - B3+, still no volume
FHRX - B2
SCVL - broke the pivot on volume Wednesday
DKWD - B2
AGM - B2
SFD - saucer
APPB - b/o Thursday on volume
AAON - B4+
HRB - continues its LLUR ways after reporting reduced losses on = higher=20 revenues
FSRV - handle on the small cup appears to be trending up on light = volume
TOO - B2
KG - consolidation
FCB - B3+, no volume
AZO - 7 week consolidation
IBKC - B7, very tight base
MATW - B5
OFIX - b/o failed, but didn't quite return to the over 4 week = base
NRIM - B12
ATK - B2
STW - B2
ALLY - decent cup completed, handle starting
KMP - 3 week handle on a very shallow cup, more of a saucer
FTO - nice clean b/o on 3X ADV on Wednesday from a very smooth = cup, just=20 over pivot
JBX - B2
ANSS - B5+
BBI - completed a triple bottom cup, working on the handle
GFF - LLUR
KPP - B2
HRL - B8
NEP - B4
CNJ - B3
PCC - B2
EFX - LLUR???
PTV - B3
WWW - B2+
NARA - B4
MCK - B3
AIM - B5, no volume
AMMD - B7, volatile
CITZ - B8+
STE - B7+
CBT - stealth b/o Friday from a saucer
HCT - one week handle on a very smooth teacup, no volume but = impressive=20 cash flow
ATR - 2 week handle on the cup, cup relatively clean = w/capitulation=20 day
UBSI - B2
RBMG - B2
LSTR - B5
CARS - another handle building chart
GBCI - B4+
CXIPY - B2
MKC - another one week handle on a saucer
CYTC - B6
IVC - two week handle on a decent cup, handle a little too = high
CGI - B5+
CFFN - B2
SSD - B2+
NCPM - two week base on smooth cup, recent IPO
WRNB - B3
TMK - LLUR
 
Play it safe, play it on paper, and Happy Hunting,
 
For those in the states, have a happy and safe Labor Day holiday, = drive=20 safe and sober,
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
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