From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1769 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, October 31 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1769 In this issue: AW: [CANSLIM] The M RE: [CANSLIM] Tech Analysis notes on TARO [CANSLIM] M [CANSLIM] Help with stock ideas please ... Re: [CANSLIM] Help with stock ideas please ... ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2001 20:34:56 +0100 From: Andreas Himmelreich Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] The M well, I am flat now, took the good day to cash in ... Just would like to say goodbye for the next 4 weeks, I head to Jamaica (no joke !) Good luck to all of you ... Andreas > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > Von: walter nusbaum [SMTP:wnusbaum@airmail.net] > Gesendet am: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 5:07 PM > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] The M > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Andreas Himmelreich" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 4:36 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] The M > > > > This market is way too difficult to call it a bull market. I even made a > > ton of money in the (false) rally of this spring, but now its different > ... > > > > Third distribution day in three weeks is enough for me to get flat ... > > > > Andreas > > > > Andreas, > Actually, there have been four distribution days in three weeks: 10/9, > 10/17, 10/23, and 10/30 with a declination on all three major indices on > each day. It will be interesting to see where the market closes today after > showing nice gains in the first couple of hours. > Best wishes, > Walt > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2001 13:34:42 -0600 From: "Hill, Ernie" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Tech Analysis notes on TARO This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand this format, some or all of this message may not be legible. - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C16243.16C49F40 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Katherine, I agree that some of the stocks in this group are breaking down or have broken down, but HGS has this group with a RS of 95. How can you say that this is a lousy group when it has such a high RS. E - -----Original Message----- From: Katherine Malm [mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net] Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 7:23 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tech Analysis notes on TARO Darn, you guys are *good*! Agreed, TARO was a much easier short back in July when it made that mini-blowoff top and the market was in a clear downtrend. Pretty clear TARO is the leader in a lousy group so will go down less and will recover sooner. As Tom also noted, great thing about CANSLIM is we don't have to guess, we can wait and let it tell us what it wants to do. Also agree with you, Doug, that the *easiest* shorts right now are the weakest players already in confirmed downtrends. Especially like the ones that wedged up during this latest rally. Katherine kmalm@earthlink.net ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. If you have received this email in error please notify the sender. ****************************************************************** - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C16243.16C49F40 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1"
Katherine,
 
I agree that some of the stocks in this group are breaking down or have broken down, but HGS has this group with a RS of 95. How can you say that this is a lousy group when it has such a high RS.
 
E
-----Original Message-----
From: Katherine Malm [mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net]
Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 7:23 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tech Analysis notes on TARO

Darn, you guys are *good*! Agreed, TARO was a much easier short back in July when it made that mini-blowoff top and the market was in a clear downtrend. Pretty clear TARO is the leader in a lousy group so will go down less and will recover sooner. As Tom also noted, great thing about CANSLIM is we don't have to guess, we can wait and let it tell us what it wants to do.
 
Also agree with you, Doug, that the *easiest* shorts right now are the weakest players already in confirmed downtrends. Especially like the ones that wedged up during this latest rally.
 
Katherine


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 - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C16243.16C49F40-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2001 18:03:05 +0100 From: Andreas Himmelreich Subject: [CANSLIM] M Can somebody post the big picture for me from today?(since I live in Germany, I can not subscribe IBD, so I can not access their web site in restricted areas ..) Thanx ... - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2001 11:43:08 -0800 From: "Ian" Subject: [CANSLIM] Help with stock ideas please ... This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_004E_01C16201.363DE580 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi all: I was wondering if anyone has any CANSLIM stock ideas (either in bases = or breakouts) that would stand to benefit from an 'unexpected' = surge/boom in Thanksgiving/Christmas retail sales. I believe that we have all of the fuel in place for a massive spending = boom: Mortgage costs dropping through the floor Fuel/gas prices dropping substantially Car/debt financing costs dropping Loads of $$$ in money-market funds earning almost nothing A live-for-today change in attitude trigggered by recent events (IMHO, this adds up to a MUCH higher level of disposable income for the = average person than 1 year ago) I am looking for quality companies that would benefit in an unexpected = way if such a spending surge were to happen over the next 2 months? Does = anyone see any pent-up demand in any areas out there? I would like to have a watch list of these to keep a keen eye on for any = early indicators of a strong unexpected uptick in business. Thanks for any ideas, Ian ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 7:35 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Tom ... Tom: Nice results for AFAM yesterday. What is your opinion of a purchase = here around $12.40? What kind of earnings/growth can be expected boing forward? Thanks for any insights, Ian ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 5:10 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tech Analysis notes on TARO Thanks, John, appreciate the different view. I had not seen the head = & shoulders, and its inverse, until you pointed it out. That's what I = love about the stock market, the "indecisiveness", you are really on = your own unless you cop out and buy mutual funds, and leave the worry = factor up to the fund manager. Either way, it seems we all appear to see the formation as = incomplete at this time, but maybe worth watching. That right shoulder = off the inverse h&s, or handle of the cup, needs to decide what it's = going to do. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA]=20 To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20 Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 7:45 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Tech Analysis notes on TARO Funny how sometimes these charts looks like optical illusions that = look different depending on which eye you use! =20 TARO's chart looks like it formed a head and shoulders top from = late June (left shoulder at $45) to late July (head at $49) to late = August (right shoulder at around $44) with a downward sloping neckline. = The neckline appears to have been broken with the gap down sell off that = followed Sep 11. But, at the end of September, it reversed and returned = to the right neckline at $35 and paused. One would expect the stock to = really fall at that point, but it didn't - it has recovered nicely. = I've read that when a stock traces through a certain bearish formation = then suddenly turns around instead of falling, that it is extremely = bullish. So, we'll have to see. =20 Looking with my other eye, I see a possible inverse head and = shoulders forming with the left shoulder at $35 in August (same as the = above right neckline), the head at $27 or so in the trading days = following Sep 11, and the right shoulder ...well, it is not well formed. =20 In either case, it is definitely trying to build some type of base = off of it's incredible run this year. It appears to be forming the = right side of a cup. From what I understand, the first step of a = healthy cup formation was breaking out of the downward channel of = successive lower lows and lower highs that it formed from its July peak = to its September low. It looks like it did that on Oct 10. It then = needs to return to that downtrend line or retest the bottom before = moving up. It looks like it tried that on Oct 18. Either way, it seems = to now be making higher lows and higher highs, where it should work its = way back up to the old high of 49, then pause to form a handle on lower = volume. Again, we'll see. =20 I know that my "analysis" is inconclusive and vague, but that's = how I see these charts - it's hard to be definite about anything. And = being indecisive makes investing difficult. Usually, when I am sure = about something, the stock will perform the opposite of what I expect! = But, I thought I'd throw it out there to give some of you a different = perspective. =20 BTW, I agree with Tom (?) who cuts the stock slack for it's spikey = bottom due to the Sep 11 sell off. But, I also agree with Katherine (?) = who has the stock on her short list due to poor performance of it's = peers. =20 Oops, there's that indecisiveness again... =20 Cheers, John C. -----Original Message----- From: Katherine Malm [mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net] Sent: Tuesday, October 30, 2001 9:13 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TARO Peter, =20 Agreed 100%. I recently moved TARO to my "Possible Shorts" list. = Thanks for the confirming thoughts. =20 Katherine kmalm@earthlink.net =20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Peter Christiansen=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, October 30, 2001 8:04 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TARO Excellent point Katherine. The industry group weakness is the = one black mark I give TARO. In the present environment, and it is a = very big black mark. Even if TARO breaks out, I probably won't buy it. = Suspect we are in another bear market rally. On the other hand, if it = breaks down, I would seriously consider shorting it. Peter At 07:36 PM 10/30/2001 -0600, you wrote: If I'm ever in doubt about a chart, I'll look at others in = the same group. With TARO, here's its cohorts: BRL: KO'd (knocked-out) ADRX: lousy, wide and loose, low RS WPI: KO'd MYL: suspect, with gaps down PRX: suspect, sure looks triple toppy ALO: lousy, gap down, low RS IVX: KO'd I'd say odds favor TARO taking a trip lower rather than = working through that handle and breaking out. Katherine ----- Original Message ----- From: "Williams, Bob" To: Sent: Tuesday, October 30, 2001 7:20 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] TARO > I'm brand new here, and forgive me for blurting out before = I've "felt out" > the group, but isn't the volume a little high on the = handle? It doesn't > look like volume is "drying up." > > Bob Williams > EDS Systems > California Medi-Cal > phone: (916) 861-1861 > fax: (916) 636-1002 > cell: (916) 804-6803 > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: Spencer48@aol.com [mailto:Spencer48@aol.com] > > Sent: Tuesday, October 30, 2001 4:54 PM > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TARO > > > > > > In a message dated 10/30/2001 7:08:19 AM Eastern = Standard Time, > > peterc@loxinfo.co.th writes: > > > > << In a double bottom, the second bottom should ideally > > slightly undercut > > the first. In this instance, I don't think it fits = that > > description. Anyway, double bottoms form handles = too.<< > > > > Peter: > > > > I'm not sure where you're looking, but to me TARO = formed > > a very nice > > double bottom: The first bottom was in August and the = 2nd > > bottom was in late > > September. Notice that the 200 stopped the 2nd fall in = late > > September, and > > also that the 2nd bottom IS below the first bottom. > > Presently, TARO seems to > > be making a handle on light volume-after stalling when > > meeting the same level > > as the W formation's apex. > > > > jans > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. "The crowd has never thirsted for the truth" - Gustave LeBon - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" = - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". = Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_004E_01C16201.363DE580 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi all:
 
I was wondering if anyone has any CANSLIM stock = ideas (either=20 in bases or breakouts) that would stand to benefit from an 'unexpected'=20 surge/boom in Thanksgiving/Christmas retail sales.
 
I believe that we have all of the fuel in place for = a massive=20 spending boom:
 
Mortgage costs dropping through the = floor
Fuel/gas prices dropping substantially
Car/debt financing costs dropping
Loads of $$$ in money-market funds earning almost=20 nothing
A live-for-today change in attitude trigggered by = recent=20 events
 
(IMHO, this adds up to a MUCH higher level of = disposable=20 income for the average person than 1 year ago)
 
I am looking for quality companies that would = benefit in an=20 unexpected way if such a spending surge were to happen over the next 2 = months?=20 Does anyone see any pent-up demand in any areas out there?
 
I would like to have a watch list of these to keep a = keen eye=20 on for any early indicators of a strong unexpected uptick in=20 business.
 
Thanks for any ideas,
 
Ian
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Ian =
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com =
Sent: Wednesday, October 31, = 2001 7:35=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Tom = ..

Tom:
 
Nice results for AFAM yesterday. What is your = opinion of a=20 purchase here around $12.40?
 
What kind of earnings/growth can be expected boing = forward?
 
Thanks for any insights,
 
Ian
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom=20 Worley
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com =
Sent: Wednesday, October 31, = 2001 5:10=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tech = Analysis=20 notes on TARO

Thanks, John, appreciate the different view. I = had not=20 seen the head & shoulders, and its inverse, until you pointed it = out.=20 That's what I love about the stock market, the "indecisiveness", you = are=20 really on your own unless you cop out and buy mutual funds, and = leave the=20 worry factor up to the fund manager.
 
Either way, it seems we all appear to see the = formation as=20 incomplete at this time, but maybe worth watching. That right = shoulder off=20 the inverse h&s, or handle of the cup, needs to decide what it's = going=20 to do.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Cefaloni, John L Jr. = [AMSTA-AR-WEA]=20
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' =
Sent: Wednesday, October = 31, 2001=20 7:45 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Tech = Analysis=20 notes on TARO

Funny how sometimes these charts looks like optical = illusions=20 that look different depending on which eye you = use!
 
TARO's chart looks like it formed a head and shoulders = top from=20 late June (left shoulder at $45) to late July (head at $49) to = late August=20 (right shoulder at around $44) with a downward sloping = neckline.  The=20 neckline appears to have been broken with the gap down sell off = that=20 followed Sep 11.  But, at the end of September, it reversed = and=20 returned to the right neckline at $35 and paused.  One would = expect=20 the stock to really fall at that point, but it didn't - it has = recovered=20 nicely.  I've read that when a stock traces through a certain = bearish=20 formation then suddenly turns around instead of falling, that it = is=20 extremely bullish.  So, we'll have to = see.
 
Looking with my other eye, I see a possible inverse head = and=20 shoulders forming with the left shoulder at $35 in = August (same as=20 the above right neckline), the head at $27 or so in the = trading days=20 following Sep 11, and the right shoulder ...well, it is not well=20 formed.
 
In either case, it is definitely trying to build some = type of base=20 off of it's incredible run this year.  It appears to be = forming the=20 right side of a cup.  From what I understand, the first step = of a=20 healthy cup formation was breaking out of the downward channel of=20 successive lower lows and lower highs that it formed from its July = peak to=20 its September low. It=20 looks like it did that on Oct 10.  It then needs to return to = that=20 downtrend line or retest the bottom before moving up.  It = looks like=20 it tried that on Oct 18.  Either way, it seems to now be = making=20 higher lows and higher highs, where it should work its way back up = to the=20 old high of 49, then pause to form a handle on lower volume.  = Again,=20 we'll see.
 
I know that my "analysis" is inconclusive and vague, but = that's how=20 I see these charts - it's hard to be definite about = anything.  And=20 being indecisive makes investing difficult.  Usually, when I = am sure=20 about something, the stock will perform the opposite of = what I=20 expect!  But, I thought I'd throw it out there to give some = of you a=20 different perspective.
 
BTW, I agree with Tom (?) who cuts the stock slack for = it's spikey=20 bottom due to the Sep 11 sell off.  But, I also agree with = Katherine=20 (?) who has the stock on her short list due to poor performance of = it's=20 peers.
 
Oops, there's that indecisiveness = again...
 
Cheers,
John C.
-----Original Message-----
From: Katherine = Malm=20 [mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net]
Sent: Tuesday, October = 30, 2001=20 9:13 PM
To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re:=20 [CANSLIM] TARO

Peter,
 
Agreed 100%. I recently moved = TARO to my=20 "Possible Shorts" list. Thanks for the=20 confirming thoughts.
 
Katherine
kmalm@earthlink.net
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Peter=20 Christiansen
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Tuesday, October = 30, 2001=20 8:04 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = TARO

Excellent point Katherine.  The industry = group=20 weakness is the one black mark I give TARO.  In the = present=20 environment, and it is a very big black mark.  = Even if=20 TARO breaks out, I probably won't buy it. Suspect we are in = another=20 bear market rally.  On the other hand, if it breaks down, = I would=20 seriously consider shorting it.

Peter

At 07:36 = PM=20 10/30/2001 -0600, you wrote:
If I'm ever in = doubt about a=20 chart, I'll look at others in the same group.
With TARO, = here's=20 its cohorts:
BRL: KO'd (knocked-out)
ADRX: lousy, wide = and=20 loose, low RS
WPI: KO'd
MYL: suspect, with gaps = down
PRX:=20 suspect, sure looks triple toppy
ALO: lousy, gap down, = low=20 RS
IVX: KO'd

I'd say odds favor TARO taking a trip = lower=20 rather than working through that
handle and breaking=20 out.

Katherine
----- Original Message = - -----
From:=20 "Williams, Bob" <robert.c.williams@eds.com>
To:=20 <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October = 30,=20 2001 7:20 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] TARO


> = I'm=20 brand new here, and forgive me for blurting out before I've = "felt=20 out"
> the group, but isn't the volume a little high = on the=20 handle?  It doesn't
> look like volume is "drying = up."
>
> Bob Williams
> EDS = Systems
>=20 California Medi-Cal
> phone: (916) 861-1861
> = fax: (916)=20 636-1002
> cell: (916) = 804-6803
>
>
> >=20 -----Original Message-----
> > From: = Spencer48@aol.com [mailto:Spencer48@aol.com]
> = > Sent:=20 Tuesday, October 30, 2001 4:54 PM
> > To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 TARO
> >
> >
> > In a message = dated=20 10/30/2001 7:08:19 AM Eastern Standard Time,
> >=20 peterc@loxinfo.co.th writes:
> >
> > = << In a=20 double bottom, the second bottom should ideally
> > = slightly undercut
> >  the first.  In = this=20 instance, I don't think it fits that
> > =20 description.  Anyway, double bottoms form handles=20 too.<<
> >
> > Peter:
> = >
>=20 >      I'm not sure where you're = looking, but to me TARO formed
> > a very = nice
> >=20 double bottom:  The first bottom was in August and the=20 2nd
> > bottom was in late
> > = September. =20 Notice that the 200 stopped the 2nd fall in late
> = >=20 September, and
> > also that the 2nd bottom IS = below the=20 first bottom.
> > Presently, TARO seems to
> = > be=20 making a handle on light volume-after stalling when
> = >=20 meeting the same level
> > as the W formation's=20 apex.
> >
> > jans
>
> = - -
> -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email = "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In=20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> = - -"unsubscribe=20 canslim".  Do not use quotes in your = email.


-
-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In = the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe=20 canslim".  Do not use quotes in your=20 email.

"The crowd has never thirsted for the truth" - = Gustave=20 LeBon
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email = "majordomo@xmission.com"=20 -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe = canslim". Do not use quotes in your=20 = email.

- ------=_NextPart_000_004E_01C16201.363DE580-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2001 14:02:17 -0600 (CST) From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Help with stock ideas please ... One the mortgage rate front, with the Treasury announcement of a suspension of sales of 30 Yr paper, some are now calling for the 30yr bond to jump to about 4.5% very soon, and the 10yr to jump to near 4%. Yesterday, the 30yr closed at 5.22% and the 10yr closed at 4.42%. The corresponding 30yr Mortgage Index stood at 6.16%. If this forecast turns out to be true, then we'll see 30yr mortgages near 5% and the refinacing surge will become a frenzy. I was speaking to my broker at Merrill Lynch today. He reported that their mortgage desk has been overwhelmed recently. They were equipped and staffed to handle about 2,000 inquiries a day. Some days in the recent past, they got nearly 15,000 calls. Who benefits from all this activity? Mortgage originators, title firms, and mortgage bankers seem to come first to mind. Indirectly, there are lots more that will gather in some of the added free cash flow in household budgets as the monthly payment drops. The socio-political climate has changed, so it may be more difficult to predict where this 'extra' cash will go. Robert On Wed, 31 Oct 2001 11:43:08 -0800, Ian wrote: >Hi all: > >I was wondering if anyone has any CANSLIM stock ideas (either in bases or breakouts) that would stand to benefit from an 'unexpected' surge/boom in Thanksgiving/Christmas retail sales. > >I believe that we have all of the fuel in place for a massive spending boom: > >Mortgage costs dropping through the floor >Fuel/gas prices dropping substantially >Car/debt financing costs dropping >Loads of $$$ in money-market funds earning almost nothing >A live-for-today change in attitude trigggered by recent events > >(IMHO, this adds up to a MUCH higher level of disposable income for the average person than 1 year ago) > >I am looking for quality companies that would benefit in an unexpected way if such a spending surge were to happen over the next 2 months? Does anyone see any pent-up demand in any areas out there? > >I would like to have a watch list of these to keep a keen eye on for any early indicators of a strong unexpected uptick in business. > >Thanks for any ideas, > >Ian > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Ian > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 7:35 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Tom ... > > Tom: > > Nice results for AFAM yesterday. What is your opinion of a purchase here around $12.40? > > What kind of earnings/growth can be expected boing forward? > > Thanks for any insights, > > Ian > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Tom Worley > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 5:10 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tech Analysis notes on TARO > > Thanks, John, appreciate the different view. I had not seen the head & shoulders, and its inverse, until you pointed it out. That's what I love about the stock market, the "indecisiveness", you are really on your own unless you cop out and buy mutual funds, and leave the worry factor up to the fund manager. > > Either way, it seems we all appear to see the formation as incomplete at this time, but maybe worth watching. That right shoulder off the inverse h&s, or handle of the cup, needs to decide what it's going to do. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > AIM: TexWorley > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA] > To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 7:45 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Tech Analysis notes on TARO > > Funny how sometimes these charts looks like optical illusions that look different depending on which eye you use! > > TARO's chart looks like it formed a head and shoulders top from late June (left shoulder at $45) to late July (head at $49) to late August (right shoulder at around $44) with a downward sloping neckline. The neckline appears to have been broken with the gap down sell off that followed Sep 11. But, at the end of September, it reversed and returned to the right neckline at $35 and paused. One would expect the stock to really fall at that point, but it didn't - it has recovered nicely. I've read that when a stock traces through a certain bearish formation then suddenly turns around instead of falling, that it is extremely bullish. So, we'll have to see. > > Looking with my other eye, I see a possible inverse head and shoulders forming with the left shoulder at $35 in August (same as the above right neckline), the head at $27 or so in the trading days following Sep 11, and the right shoulder ...well, it is not well formed. > > In either case, it is definitely trying to build some type of base off of it's incredible run this year. It appears to be forming the right side of a cup. From what I understand, the first step of a healthy cup formation was breaking out of the downward channel of successive lower lows and lower highs that it formed from its July peak to its September low. It looks like it did that on Oct 10. It then needs to return to that downtrend line or retest the bottom before moving up. It looks like it tried that on Oct 18. Either way, it seems to now be making higher lows and higher highs, where it should work its way back up to the old high of 49, then pause to form a handle on lower volume. Again, we'll see. > > I know that my "analysis" is inconclusive and vague, but that's how I see these charts - it's hard to be definite about anything. And being indecisive makes investing difficult. Usually, when I am sure about something, the stock will perform the opposite of what I expect! But, I thought I'd throw it out there to give some of you a different perspective. > > BTW, I agree with Tom (?) who cuts the stock slack for it's spikey bottom due to the Sep 11 sell off. But, I also agree with Katherine (?) who has the stock on her short list due to poor performance of it's peers. > > Oops, there's that indecisiveness again... > > Cheers, > John C. > -----Original Message----- > From: Katherine Malm [mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net] > Sent: Tuesday, October 30, 2001 9:13 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TARO > > Peter, > > Agreed 100%. I recently moved TARO to my "Possible Shorts" list. Thanks for the confirming thoughts. > > Katherine > kmalm@earthlink.net > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Peter Christiansen > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Tuesday, October 30, 2001 8:04 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TARO > > Excellent point Katherine. The industry group weakness is the one black mark I give TARO. In the present environment, and it is a very big black mark. Even if TARO breaks out, I probably won't buy it. Suspect we are in another bear market rally. On the other hand, if it breaks down, I would seriously consider shorting it. > > Peter > > At 07:36 PM 10/30/2001 -0600, you wrote: > > If I'm ever in doubt about a chart, I'll look at others in the same group. > With TARO, here's its cohorts: > BRL: KO'd (knocked-out) > ADRX: lousy, wide and loose, low RS > WPI: KO'd > MYL: suspect, with gaps down > PRX: suspect, sure looks triple toppy > ALO: lousy, gap down, low RS > IVX: KO'd > > I'd say odds favor TARO taking a trip lower rather than working through that > handle and breaking out. > > Katherine > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Williams, Bob" > To: > Sent: Tuesday, October 30, 2001 7:20 PM > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] TARO > > > I'm brand new here, and forgive me for blurting out before I've "felt out" > > the group, but isn't the volume a little high on the handle? It doesn't > > look like volume is "drying up." > > > > Bob Williams > > EDS Systems > > California Medi-Cal > > phone: (916) 861-1861 > > fax: (916) 636-1002 > > cell: (916) 804-6803 > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > From: Spencer48@aol.com [mailto:Spencer48@aol.com] > > > Sent: Tuesday, October 30, 2001 4:54 PM > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TARO > > > > > > > > > In a message dated 10/30/2001 7:08:19 AM Eastern Standard Time, > > > peterc@loxinfo.co.th writes: > > > > > > << In a double bottom, the second bottom should ideally > > > slightly undercut > > > the first. In this instance, I don't think it fits that > > > description. Anyway, double bottoms form handles too.<< > > > > > > Peter: > > > > > > I'm not sure where you're looking, but to me TARO formed > > > a very nice > > > double bottom: The first bottom was in August and the 2nd > > > bottom was in late > > > September. Notice that the 200 stopped the 2nd fall in late > > > September, and > > > also that the 2nd bottom IS below the first bottom. > > > Presently, TARO seems to > > > be making a handle on light volume-after stalling when > > > meeting the same level > > > as the W formation's apex. > > > > > > jans > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > "The crowd has never thirsted for the truth" - Gustave LeBon > - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1769 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.