From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1800 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, November 10 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1800 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] [Non-CANSLIM] Off topic - Budget Rent-A-Car [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 10 Nov 2001 11:24:42 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] [Non-CANSLIM] Off topic - Budget Rent-A-Car This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_01CC_01C169DA.4B209CA0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable My path to solving the mystery would include the following points: (1) Cash flow is significantly different than EPS. That always raises a = red flag for me, no matter which direction that difference plays out. = DGO has cflo at $4.09 and 2001 EPS at ($2.10). That smacks of a balance = sheet problem. (2) ROE is a measly 2%. That smacks of an I/S problem.=20 (3) The 10Q for this quarter is not yet posted, but if you take a quick = glance at the one from August you'll see these guys are in big trouble, = saddled with debt up to the wazoo. In fact, their B/S doesn't state = "Liabilities and Shareholder Equity" it is titled "Liabilities and = Shareholder Deficit." The deficit was created by lousy net income = previously, more than likely tied to, among other things, interest = payments on big debts. = http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/922471/000095014401505959/00009501= 44-01-505959-index.htm (4) A quick glance through the Management's Discussion of Financial = Condition shows a company struggling through a massive and messy reorg. = I'd bet, on close examination of the I/S that you'd find all the clues = you'd need to predict net income losses derived from that, despite = decent continued operational income. (5) They have a really complicated agreement with Homestore.com that = involves swapping puts and selling shares and displaying the = Homestore.com logo on their trucks, etc, etc, which probably contributes = to net income in a material way. (6) If I were Buffet-minded, I'd be digging in and looking for "value" = and signs of "turnaround" that would deem this a bargain. But I'm not = nearly as smart or diligent as Mr. B and will leave that to him to = figure out. I'd rather let the market tell me when these guys get their = act together. Katherine kmalm@eathlink.net - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, November 10, 2001 10:29 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] [Non-CANSLIM] Off topic - Budget Rent-A-Car Kinda, Katherine. Actual results for nine months appear to contradict = both the forecast for full year, as well as the price and performance of = the stock. Either there is something terribly wrong with the 4th quarter = (confirming forecast and price / performance) or this is a severely = undervalued stock (if Management's rosy statement for Q3 continues into = Q4). Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, November 10, 2001 10:26 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] [Non-CANSLIM] Off topic - Budget Rent-A-Car Tom, Want to be sure I understand the question. You are wondering how = they can end up with a estimate current yearly EPS=3D($2.10) when, EPS = for Q1+Q2+Q3 =3D (.98) and an expectation of a good seasonal Q4? Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Saturday, November 10, 2001 8:00 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] [Non-CANSLIM] Off topic - Budget Rent-A-Car I am reposting this because I never got any response from the = group. Now that they have reported Q3 results, maybe someone smarter = than me can figure it out. With an RS of 6, EPS of 70, and a price of = $1.03, clearly NOT CANSLIM. Forecast for this year ending December: loss of $2.10 Results for first 3 qtrs (Q1 to Q3 order): Sales: $529.5MM / $577.6MM / $610.2MM Earnings: minus $2.37 / +$0.30 / +$1.12 (so they did as they said = they would, and earned more than the price of the stock) Adding up the 3 qtrs earnings, you get a loss of $0.95, which = means the forecast (unless it has not been updated yet) implies a Q4 = loss of $1.15. This goes against the positive comments I quoted below = when the company substantially raised the Q3 consensus forecast. If they = simply repeated Q3 in the 4th qtr, they should instead be profitable for = the full year. And the Q4 period includes Thanksgiving, Christmas and = part of New Year, all high travel seasons even now after the attacks on = 9/11. And regional car rentals was one thing they cited in raising the = Q3 forecast. If any members are familiar with the car rental industry, perhaps = you can point out what I am missing here. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Monday, October 15, 2001 7:32 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Off topic - Budget Rent-A-Car Anyone got time to figure out this anomaly?? Stock trades up 28 = cents today, to $1.33 (that's not a typo, over a 20% gain) on the news = below (earnings for the Q3 almost equal to the price of the stock)!!! = And business has improved since 9/11?? And it's got an RS of 8 and EPS = of 26? Budget Group (BD) announced it would exceed third quarter EPS = estimates. Consensus is .98 per share. The company stated it would post = at the low end of $1.12-1.24 per share. The diversification of our = business model -- airport and local market, car and truck rental -- = mitigates weakness in any one segment. Since September 11, local market = car rental transactions have been tracking above prior year and our = truck rental business remains on plan," stated Sandy Miller, chairman = and chief executive officer.=20 Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_000_01CC_01C169DA.4B209CA0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
My path to solving the mystery would = include the=20 following points:
 
(1) Cash flow is significantly = different=20 than EPS. That always raises a red flag for me, no matter which = direction=20 that difference plays out. DGO has cflo at $4.09 and 2001 EPS at = ($2.10). That=20 smacks of a balance sheet problem.
 
(2) ROE is a measly 2%. That smacks of = an I/S=20 problem. 
 
(3) The 10Q for this quarter is not yet = posted, but=20 if you take a quick glance at the one from August you'll see these guys = are in=20 big trouble, saddled with debt up to the wazoo. In fact, their B/S = doesn't state=20 "Liabilities and Shareholder Equity" it is titled "Liabilities and = Shareholder=20 Deficit." The deficit was created by lousy net income = previously, more=20 than likely tied to, among other things, interest payments on big = debts.=20  http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/92= 2471/000095014401505959/0000950144-01-505959-index.htm
 
(4) A quick glance through the = Management's=20 Discussion of Financial Condition shows a company struggling through a = massive=20 and messy reorg. I'd bet, on close examination of the I/S that you'd = find all=20 the clues you'd need to predict net income losses derived from that, = despite=20 decent continued operational income.
 
(5) They have a really complicated = agreement with=20 Homestore.com that involves swapping puts and selling shares and = displaying the=20 Homestore.com logo on their trucks, etc, etc, which probably contributes = to net=20 income in a material way.
 
(6) If I were Buffet-minded, I'd be = digging in and=20 looking for "value" and signs of "turnaround" that would deem this a = bargain.=20 But I'm not nearly as smart or diligent as Mr. B and will leave that to = him to=20 figure out. I'd rather let the market tell me when these guys get their = act=20 together.
 
Katherine
kmalm@eathlink.net
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom = Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Saturday, November 10, = 2001 10:29=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = [Non-CANSLIM] Off=20 topic - Budget Rent-A-Car

Kinda, Katherine. Actual results for nine months = appear to=20 contradict both the forecast for full year, as well as the price and=20 performance of the stock. Either there is something terribly wrong = with the=20 4th quarter (confirming forecast and price / performance) or this is a = severely undervalued stock (if Management's rosy statement for Q3 = continues=20 into Q4).
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
Sent: Saturday, November 10, = 2001 10:26=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = [Non-CANSLIM]=20 Off topic - Budget Rent-A-Car

Tom,
 
Want to be sure I understand the = question. You=20 are wondering how they can end up with a estimate current yearly = EPS=3D($2.10)=20 when, EPS for Q1+Q2+Q3 =3D (.98) and an expectation of a good = seasonal=20 Q4?
 
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Tom=20 Worley
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Saturday, November = 10, 2001=20 8:00 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] = [Non-CANSLIM] Off=20 topic - Budget Rent-A-Car

I am reposting this because I never got any = response=20 from the group. Now that they have reported Q3 results, maybe = someone=20 smarter than me can figure it out. With an RS of 6, EPS of 70, and = a price=20 of $1.03, clearly NOT=20 CANSLIM.
 
Forecast for this year ending December: loss = of=20 $2.10
Results for first 3 qtrs (Q1 to Q3 = order):
Sales: $529.5MM / $577.6MM / = $610.2MM
Earnings: minus $2.37 / +$0.30 / +$1.12 (so = they did as=20 they said they would, and earned more than the price of the=20 stock)
 
Adding up the 3 qtrs earnings, you get a loss = of $0.95,=20 which means the forecast (unless it has not been updated yet) = implies a Q4=20 loss of $1.15. This goes against the positive comments I quoted = below when=20 the company substantially raised the Q3 consensus forecast. If = they simply=20 repeated Q3 in the 4th qtr, they should instead be profitable for = the full=20 year. And the Q4 period includes Thanksgiving, Christmas and part = of New=20 Year, all high travel seasons even now after the attacks on 9/11. = And=20 regional car rentals was one thing they cited in raising the Q3=20 forecast.
 
If any members are familiar with the car = rental=20 industry, perhaps you can point out what I am missing = here.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: = Tom Worley=20
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Monday, October 15, 2001 7:32 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Off topic - Budget = Rent-A-Car

Anyone got time to figure out this anomaly?? = Stock=20 trades up 28 cents today, to $1.33 (that's not a typo, over a 20% = gain) on=20 the news below (earnings for the Q3 almost equal to the price of = the=20 stock)!!! And business has improved since 9/11?? And it's got an = RS of 8=20 and EPS of 26?
 
Budget Group (BD)=20 announced it would exceed third quarter EPS estimates. Consensus = is .98=20 per share. The company stated it would post at the low end of = $1.12-1.24=20 per share. The diversification of our business model -- airport = and local=20 market, car and truck rental -- mitigates weakness in any one = segment.=20 Since September 11, local market car rental transactions have been = tracking above prior year and our truck rental business remains on = plan,"=20 stated Sandy Miller, chairman and chief executive officer.=20
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 = TexWorley
<= /HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_01CC_01C169DA.4B209CA0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 10 Nov 2001 13:14:39 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_000E_01C169E9.A7A21BC0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable RETAIL SALES There is growing evidence that the consumer is not bailing out on this = weak economy. Despite all the reasons for worry and fear (unemployment, = attacks on 9/11, Anthrax attacks), the consumer is still spending, = probably due the combination of tax rebates, cheaper gas, and Fed rate = cuts. This week WalMart reported same store sales up better than = expected at 6.7%. And Pier 1 Imports reported a 4% gain (and Pier 1 = raised its 3rd qtr projections because of this). Michael's stores = reported a same store sales gain of 9%, and upped the Q3 forecast as = well. This is a respectable gain over Oct 2000. Of course there were = also a number of retailers reporting falling sales, but that was = expected. The surprises worth noting are the ones that gain, especially = when they are big names like WalMart. Also worth noting is that while = sales in September fell by 1.3%, inventories also were reduced by 0.1%. = This reduction in inventory is remarkable, especially given than = inventories were already pretty lean and mean, and for most businesses = already adjusted to the then current level of business activity. To = absorb such a sharp reduction in consumer spending, and still keep = inventory under control, much less reduce it at all, is remarkable. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ON "M" The big news of the week was that the U. of M. consumer sentiment = preliminary report for November was a positive gain as opposed to the = decline expected, grew to 83.5 from 82.7 in October. And the PPI = (Producer Price Index for you neophytes to Economics 101) sharply = declined as manufacturers cut prices in order to move inventory and = maintain production. Dropped 1.6%. Even on a core basis, stripping out = the highly volatile energy and food factors, it still dropped 0.5%. = Consumers will spend, given sufficient incentive.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES The pool of stocks I am looking at this weekend continues to expand. As always, Bx means a "B"ase of "x" weeks, IMO. I use "Base" to mean a = flat line base, not a definable pattern like C&H, Double Bottom, LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right), etc. If I see a pattern, I will say so. AIM - LLUR, low ADV AMC - B5, low ADV AMFH - 5 week handle on a shallow cup?, handle at midpoint ANSS - failed LLUR turned into a B2 APOG - failed b/o, extending a short handle on a decent cup APPB - volume down sharply on a one week handle to a decent cup ATAC - B4 BOKF - B8 BPRX - b/o Friday, nearly 2X ADV, past pivot BRO - B3 BYS - B6 CBH - a pretty vertical cup with no flat bottom, started before the = attacks, and recovered immediately after, forming a handle? CDWC - consolidating the b/o from the handle?, low earnings forecast CEFT - B5+, primary offering and a 2:1 split in past six months CHFC - cup with two week handle, volume confusing CPS - consolidating the b/o from a short handle CPS - B2 CRVL - B2 CSK - C&H, B1 CTCO - failed B/O, back to the base DEBS - holding the b/o Thur from a 3 week handle on the cup, volume 1.5X = ADV on the b/o ERIE - B6 FCB - B6 FCN - B6 or a LLUR trying to bounce off the 50 DMA FDC - high handle forming on the cup? FLIR - LLUR?, 5 week handle / base formed? GB - B6, earnings forecast this year and next huge GF - b/o Thu from B4 holding, strong Q4 results GIB - base on base GTY - B8 HLYW - base on base?, LLUR? HRH - B3 IART - B8 trending up IBCP - base on base ICBC - 2nd handle on the cup?, base on the first handle? JNC - B5 - low earnings forecast but low volatility JNJ - B3 KNGT - B3, primary offering pending KSL - B3+, strong earnings MCO - B3 MIKE - Thursday's b/o failed, back to B2 NFI - B2, low ADV NLY - B2 PHC - B5+ PTV - high handle?, sales falling RAH - B8 SAFM - B2, trending up at the 50 DMA SASR - B3, 2 b/o attempts failed STW - saucer TTIL - broke pivot on 6X ADV Friday, RS only 79, EPS 99 WMAR - latest b/o failing on light volume Happy Hunting, God Bless America, =20 Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_000_000E_01C169E9.A7A21BC0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
RETAIL SALES
There is growing evidence that the consumer is not = bailing out=20 on this weak economy. Despite all the reasons for worry and fear = (unemployment,=20 attacks on 9/11, Anthrax attacks), the consumer is still spending, = probably due=20 the combination of tax rebates, cheaper gas, and Fed rate cuts. This = week=20 WalMart reported same store sales up better than expected at 6.7%. And = Pier 1=20 Imports reported a 4% gain (and Pier 1 raised its 3rd qtr projections = because of=20 this). Michael's stores reported a same store sales gain of 9%, and = upped the Q3=20 forecast as well. This is a respectable gain over Oct 2000. Of course = there were=20 also a number of retailers reporting falling sales, but that was = expected. The=20 surprises worth noting are the ones that gain, especially when they are = big=20 names like WalMart. Also worth noting is that while sales in September = fell by=20 1.3%, inventories also were reduced by 0.1%. This reduction in inventory = is=20 remarkable, especially given than inventories were already pretty lean = and mean,=20 and for most businesses already adjusted to the then current level of = business=20 activity. To absorb such a sharp reduction in consumer spending, and = still keep=20 inventory under control, much less reduce it at all, is = remarkable.
ON "M"
The big news of the week was that the U. of M. consumer sentiment=20 preliminary report for November was a positive gain as opposed to the = decline=20 expected, grew to 83.5 from 82.7 in October. And the PPI (Producer Price = Index=20 for you neophytes to Economics 101) sharply declined as manufacturers = cut prices=20 in order to move inventory and maintain production. Dropped 1.6%. Even = on a core=20 basis, stripping out the highly volatile energy and food factors, it = still=20 dropped 0.5%. Consumers will spend, given sufficient incentive.=20
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES
 
The pool of stocks I am looking at this weekend continues to = expand.
 
As always, Bx means a "B"ase of "x" weeks, IMO. I use "Base" to = mean a flat=20 line base, not a definable pattern like C&H, Double Bottom, LLUR = (Lower Left=20 Upper Right), etc. If I see a pattern, I will say so.
 
AIM - LLUR, low ADV
AMC - B5, low ADV
AMFH - 5 week handle on a shallow cup?, handle at midpoint
ANSS - failed LLUR turned into a B2
APOG - failed b/o, extending a short handle on a decent cup
APPB - volume down sharply on a one week handle to a decent = cup
ATAC - B4
BOKF - B8
BPRX - b/o Friday, nearly 2X ADV, past pivot
BRO - B3
BYS - B6
CBH - a pretty vertical cup with no flat bottom, started before the = attacks, and recovered immediately after, forming a handle?
CDWC - consolidating the b/o from the handle?, low earnings = forecast
CEFT - B5+, primary offering and a 2:1 split in past six = months
CHFC - cup with two week handle, volume confusing
CPS - consolidating the b/o from a short handle
CPS - B2
CRVL - B2
CSK - C&H, B1
CTCO - failed B/O, back to the base
DEBS - holding the b/o Thur from a 3 week handle on the cup, volume = 1.5X=20 ADV on the b/o
ERIE - B6
FCB - B6
FCN - B6 or a LLUR trying to bounce off the 50 DMA
FDC - high handle forming on the cup?
FLIR - LLUR?, 5 week handle / base formed?
GB - B6, earnings forecast this year and next huge
GF - b/o Thu from B4 holding, strong Q4 results
GIB - base on base
GTY - B8
HLYW - base on base?, LLUR?
HRH - B3
IART - B8 trending up
IBCP - base on base
ICBC - 2nd handle on the cup?, base on the first handle?
JNC - B5 - low earnings forecast but low volatility
JNJ - B3
KNGT - B3, primary offering pending
KSL - B3+, strong earnings
MCO - B3
MIKE - Thursday's b/o failed, back to B2
NFI - B2, low ADV
NLY - B2
PHC - B5+
PTV - high handle?, sales falling
RAH - B8
SAFM - B2, trending up at the 50 DMA
SASR - B3, 2 b/o attempts failed
STW - saucer
TTIL - broke pivot on 6X ADV Friday, RS only 79, EPS 99
WMAR - latest b/o failing on light volume
 
Happy Hunting,
 
God Bless America,
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
- ------=_NextPart_000_000E_01C169E9.A7A21BC0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 10 Nov 2001 13:41:09 -0500 From: "Steve" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0020_01C169ED.5B08BEF0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable A Question on your watchlist, a conspicuous absentee is EPIQ, do you not = include stocks once they have broken out, or have purchased yourself? Thanks for the great reviews. =20 - -A Lurker! ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Saturday, November 10, 2001 1:14 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview RETAIL SALES There is growing evidence that the consumer is not bailing out on this = weak economy. Despite all the reasons for worry and fear (unemployment, = attacks on 9/11, Anthrax attacks), the consumer is still spending, = probably due the combination of tax rebates, cheaper gas, and Fed rate = cuts. This week WalMart reported same store sales up better than = expected at 6.7%. And Pier 1 Imports reported a 4% gain (and Pier 1 = raised its 3rd qtr projections because of this). Michael's stores = reported a same store sales gain of 9%, and upped the Q3 forecast as = well. This is a respectable gain over Oct 2000. Of course there were = also a number of retailers reporting falling sales, but that was = expected. The surprises worth noting are the ones that gain, especially = when they are big names like WalMart. Also worth noting is that while = sales in September fell by 1.3%, inventories also were reduced by 0.1%. = This reduction in inventory is remarkable, especially given than = inventories were already pretty lean and mean, and for most businesses = already adjusted to the then current level of business activity. To = absorb such a sharp reduction in consumer spending, and still keep = inventory under control, much less reduce it at all, is remarkable. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- ON "M" The big news of the week was that the U. of M. consumer sentiment = preliminary report for November was a positive gain as opposed to the = decline expected, grew to 83.5 from 82.7 in October. And the PPI = (Producer Price Index for you neophytes to Economics 101) sharply = declined as manufacturers cut prices in order to move inventory and = maintain production. Dropped 1.6%. Even on a core basis, stripping out = the highly volatile energy and food factors, it still dropped 0.5%. = Consumers will spend, given sufficient incentive.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES The pool of stocks I am looking at this weekend continues to expand. As always, Bx means a "B"ase of "x" weeks, IMO. I use "Base" to mean a = flat line base, not a definable pattern like C&H, Double Bottom, LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right), etc. If I see a pattern, I will say so. AIM - LLUR, low ADV AMC - B5, low ADV AMFH - 5 week handle on a shallow cup?, handle at midpoint ANSS - failed LLUR turned into a B2 APOG - failed b/o, extending a short handle on a decent cup APPB - volume down sharply on a one week handle to a decent cup ATAC - B4 BOKF - B8 BPRX - b/o Friday, nearly 2X ADV, past pivot BRO - B3 BYS - B6 CBH - a pretty vertical cup with no flat bottom, started before the = attacks, and recovered immediately after, forming a handle? CDWC - consolidating the b/o from the handle?, low earnings forecast CEFT - B5+, primary offering and a 2:1 split in past six months CHFC - cup with two week handle, volume confusing CPS - consolidating the b/o from a short handle CPS - B2 CRVL - B2 CSK - C&H, B1 CTCO - failed B/O, back to the base DEBS - holding the b/o Thur from a 3 week handle on the cup, volume = 1.5X ADV on the b/o ERIE - B6 FCB - B6 FCN - B6 or a LLUR trying to bounce off the 50 DMA FDC - high handle forming on the cup? FLIR - LLUR?, 5 week handle / base formed? GB - B6, earnings forecast this year and next huge GF - b/o Thu from B4 holding, strong Q4 results GIB - base on base GTY - B8 HLYW - base on base?, LLUR? HRH - B3 IART - B8 trending up IBCP - base on base ICBC - 2nd handle on the cup?, base on the first handle? JNC - B5 - low earnings forecast but low volatility JNJ - B3 KNGT - B3, primary offering pending KSL - B3+, strong earnings MCO - B3 MIKE - Thursday's b/o failed, back to B2 NFI - B2, low ADV NLY - B2 PHC - B5+ PTV - high handle?, sales falling RAH - B8 SAFM - B2, trending up at the 50 DMA SASR - B3, 2 b/o attempts failed STW - saucer TTIL - broke pivot on 6X ADV Friday, RS only 79, EPS 99 WMAR - latest b/o failing on light volume Happy Hunting, God Bless America, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_000_0020_01C169ED.5B08BEF0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
A Question on your watchlist, a = conspicuous=20 absentee is EPIQ, do you not include stocks once they have broken out, = or have=20 purchased yourself?
 
Thanks for the great reviews.  =
 
-A Lurker!
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom = Worley=20
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Saturday, November 10, = 2001 1:14=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's = Weekend=20 Weeview

RETAIL SALES
There is growing evidence that the consumer is not = bailing=20 out on this weak economy. Despite all the reasons for worry and fear=20 (unemployment, attacks on 9/11, Anthrax attacks), the consumer is = still=20 spending, probably due the combination of tax rebates, cheaper gas, = and Fed=20 rate cuts. This week WalMart reported same store sales up better than = expected=20 at 6.7%. And Pier 1 Imports reported a 4% gain (and Pier 1 raised its = 3rd qtr=20 projections because of this). Michael's stores reported a same store = sales=20 gain of 9%, and upped the Q3 forecast as well. This is a respectable = gain over=20 Oct 2000. Of course there were also a number of retailers reporting = falling=20 sales, but that was expected. The surprises worth noting are the ones = that=20 gain, especially when they are big names like WalMart. Also worth = noting is=20 that while sales in September fell by 1.3%, inventories also were = reduced by=20 0.1%. This reduction in inventory is remarkable, especially given than = inventories were already pretty lean and mean, and for most businesses = already=20 adjusted to the then current level of business activity. To absorb = such a=20 sharp reduction in consumer spending, and still keep inventory under = control,=20 much less reduce it at all, is remarkable.
ON "M"
The big news of the week was that the U. of M. consumer sentiment = preliminary report for November was a positive gain as opposed to the = decline=20 expected, grew to 83.5 from 82.7 in October. And the PPI (Producer = Price Index=20 for you neophytes to Economics 101) sharply declined as manufacturers = cut=20 prices in order to move inventory and maintain production. Dropped = 1.6%. Even=20 on a core basis, stripping out the highly volatile energy and food = factors, it=20 still dropped 0.5%. Consumers will spend, given sufficient incentive.=20
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES
 
The pool of stocks I am looking at this weekend continues to=20 expand.
 
As always, Bx means a "B"ase of "x" weeks, IMO. I use "Base" to = mean a=20 flat line base, not a definable pattern like C&H, Double Bottom, = LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right), etc. If I see a pattern, I will say = so.
 
AIM - LLUR, low ADV
AMC - B5, low ADV
AMFH - 5 week handle on a shallow cup?, handle at midpoint
ANSS - failed LLUR turned into a B2
APOG - failed b/o, extending a short handle on a decent cup
APPB - volume down sharply on a one week handle to a decent = cup
ATAC - B4
BOKF - B8
BPRX - b/o Friday, nearly 2X ADV, past pivot
BRO - B3
BYS - B6
CBH - a pretty vertical cup with no flat bottom, started before = the=20 attacks, and recovered immediately after, forming a handle?
CDWC - consolidating the b/o from the handle?, low earnings=20 forecast
CEFT - B5+, primary offering and a 2:1 split in past six = months
CHFC - cup with two week handle, volume confusing
CPS - consolidating the b/o from a short handle
CPS - B2
CRVL - B2
CSK - C&H, B1
CTCO - failed B/O, back to the base
DEBS - holding the b/o Thur from a 3 week handle on the cup, = volume 1.5X=20 ADV on the b/o
ERIE - B6
FCB - B6
FCN - B6 or a LLUR trying to bounce off the 50 DMA
FDC - high handle forming on the cup?
FLIR - LLUR?, 5 week handle / base formed?
GB - B6, earnings forecast this year and next huge
GF - b/o Thu from B4 holding, strong Q4 results
GIB - base on base
GTY - B8
HLYW - base on base?, LLUR?
HRH - B3
IART - B8 trending up
IBCP - base on base
ICBC - 2nd handle on the cup?, base on the first handle?
JNC - B5 - low earnings forecast but low volatility
JNJ - B3
KNGT - B3, primary offering pending
KSL - B3+, strong earnings
MCO - B3
MIKE - Thursday's b/o failed, back to B2
NFI - B2, low ADV
NLY - B2
PHC - B5+
PTV - high handle?, sales falling
RAH - B8
SAFM - B2, trending up at the 50 DMA
SASR - B3, 2 b/o attempts failed
STW - saucer
TTIL - broke pivot on 6X ADV Friday, RS only 79, EPS 99
WMAR - latest b/o failing on light volume
 
Happy Hunting,
 
God Bless America,
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
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