From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1836 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, November 21 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1836 In this issue: RE: [CANSLIM] NVDA Re: [CANSLIM] DRI C&H Re: [CANSLIM] DRI C&H RE: [CANSLIM] DRI C&H RE: [CANSLIM] OT- Fiber capacity (Used to be Steel) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 21 Nov 2001 12:03:26 -0700 From: esetser Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] NVDA I think the real threat here is the standard user's buying pre-packaged machines. It would certainly be cheaper to include the video function in the processor, so you start getting quite a few people buying these machines because they are cheaper. I don't think video performance is a driver for most of the market, so just supplying the gamers isn't a particularly good position for a company. For instance, 3DFX pretty much won the war as the only premium gamer video card a while back, and not too long later, they sold out to avoid bankruptcy. I would certainly be concerned that Intel could "steal" a portion of the PC market with an in-chip video approach, if they in-fact every accomplish it at a good performance level. At 01:58 PM 11/20/01 -0800, you wrote: >When x86 architecture PC's just came out, the CPU was >taking care of the graphics. The whole reason >Graphics Cards came out, was that it was just not >practical anymore when color become mainstream and the >CPU just couldn't keep up with all the instructions it >had to process which slow it down. > >Granted, technology probably advanced enough to >integrate a graphics chip into the CPU with more >success now, but there are already problems with >jamming all the little transistors in one chip and >keeping it cool enough. I don't see how Intel can have >both in one chip and compete with a full blown >graphics chip like in ATI and Nvidia graphics cards >when it come to rendering the high graphics >applications (games). > >Another problem with integrated components is what >happened when one breaks. If the graphics chip on the >CPU break, would one have to buy a whole new CPU? >This is like integrated Sound Cards and parallel ports >on the motherboard. Once one of them break, you have >to buy a new motherboard, or just have to go and buy a >Sound Card and Parallel Port anyway. > >I agree with Dave. This is a nice hypothesis, but >things does not always work out like on the drawing >board. > >- Fanus > >--- Dave wrote: >> Basically, it comes down to integrating graphics >> capability into future >> versions of microprocessors. The next generations of >> Intel chips will have >> integrated graphics capability so that an external >> video card will not be >> required. >> >> This is a nice hypothesis but certainly not a >> foregone conclusion. Even >> so, companies like NVDA are pushing the envelope of >> graphics technology. >> High-end users (including hardcore gamers) want the >> top-of-the-line 3D >> graphics capability. I'm not convinced Intel can >> deliver top quality >> graphics that is fully integrated with their >> microprocessor. By the time >> Intel's integrated graphics comes out, NVDA may be >> one or two generations >> ahead with their own technology. >> >> It's a definite threat, but doesn't necessarily >> spell doom for NVDA and >> ATI. These companies are also diversified by >> supplying chips for game >> consoles. >> >> >> >> > -----Original Message----- >> > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >> > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf >> Of Chris Mc >> > Sent: Monday, November 19, 2001 9:47 PM >> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NVDA >> > >> > >> > There was an article in IBD on the Internet & >> Technology page >> > on 11-12-01 >> > stating that graphic chipmakers face a threat from >> Intel. I'm >> > not sure if >> > you would have access to the article on the web >> site. >> > >> > ----- Original Message ----- >> > From: "Bob Raible" >> > To: >> > Sent: Monday, November 19, 2001 1:17 PM >> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NVDA >> > >> > >> > > No, but I do know that Intel has already tried >> to enter the graphics >> > > card category and the market was underwhelmed. >> > > >> > > --- Neal Frankle wrote: >> > > > Does anyone remember a few days ago IBD >> talking about NVDA and >> > > > mentioning something about INTEL entering into >> competition w/NVDA? >> > > > >> > > > Neal >> > > > >> > > > - >> > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email >> "majordomo@xmission.com" >> > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" >> or >> > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in >> your email. >> > > >> > > >> > > ===== >> > > Bob Raible >> > > Sunny San Jose,CA >> > > >> > > >> __________________________________________________ >> > > Do You Yahoo!? >> > > Find the one for you at Yahoo! Personals >> > > http://personals.yahoo.com >> > > >> > > - >> > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email >> "majordomo@xmission.com" >> > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >> > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in >> your email. >> > > >> > >> > >> > - >> > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email >> "majordomo@xmission.com" >> > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >> > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your >> email. >> > >> >> >> - >> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email >> "majordomo@xmission.com" >> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your >email. > > >__________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Yahoo! GeoCities - quick and easy web site hosting, just $8.95/month. >http://geocities.yahoo.com/ps/info1 > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 21 Nov 2001 12:05:44 -0700 From: esetser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DRI C&H It seems to be working at the total "M" level. I noticed they finally started talking about breakouts working in Monday's paper, and then we ar= e back to another distribution day on Tuesday! Ouch. Personally, I'm still sitting with my single CANSLIM holding waiting to s= ee a more consistent trend for leadership and CANSLIM stocks. At 07:16 PM 11/20/01 -0800, you wrote: >Let'ssee if the IBDcurse is still inforce ! > >Kent Norman > >--- John Adair wrote: >> Today=92s ibd stock screen lists DRI . There is a good >> base and the handle is >> forming over a 2 week period. Volume is drying up >> The pivot is about 31.65 >> I would expect the volume would have to reach over =20 >> 1,000000 for a good >> blastoff The rest of the numbers look good. I=20 >> expect if tomorrow is an up >> day it will go. >>=20 > > >__________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Yahoo! GeoCities - quick and easy web site hosting, just $8.95/month. >http://geocities.yahoo.com/ps/info1 > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 21 Nov 2001 13:07:11 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DRI C&H Amen, esetser. Well said. Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: "esetser" To: Sent: Wednesday, November 21, 2001 1:05 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DRI C&H It seems to be working at the total "M" level. I noticed they finally started talking about breakouts working in Monday's paper, and then we are back to another distribution day on Tuesday! Ouch. Personally, I'm still sitting with my single CANSLIM holding waiting to see a more consistent trend for leadership and CANSLIM stocks. At 07:16 PM 11/20/01 -0800, you wrote: >Let'ssee if the IBDcurse is still inforce ! > >Kent Norman > >--- John Adair wrote: >> Today's ibd stock screen lists DRI . There is a good >> base and the handle is >> forming over a 2 week period. Volume is drying up >> The pivot is about 31.65 >> I would expect the volume would have to reach over >> 1,000000 for a good >> blastoff The rest of the numbers look good. I >> expect if tomorrow is an up >> day it will go. >> > > >__________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Yahoo! GeoCities - quick and easy web site hosting, just $8.95/month. >http://geocities.yahoo.com/ps/info1 > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 21 Nov 2001 14:12:49 -0700 From: "Paul Lewis" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DRI C&H This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C172D1.46288F00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable EPIQ: Return of the Curse, Part 423. =20 We dohn need no steenkeeng exceptions! =20 At least I saw what what going on early enough to get out with a small loss . . . unlike with TARO (wahh!) - -----Original Message----- From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@netside.net] Sent: Tuesday, November 20, 2001 8:36 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DRI C&H To have a good rule, you must also have an exception. =20 I think I did describe it as a "juggernaut". =20 Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Norman =20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, November 20, 2001 10:19 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DRI C&H Sorry Kent, The curse failed to kill EPIQ (yet) so it is null and void :-) Norm - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C172D1.46288F00 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
EPIQ:  Return of the Curse, Part=20 423.
 
We dohn need=20 no steenkeeng exceptions!
 
At least I=20 saw what what going on early enough to get out with a small loss . . . = unlike=20 with TARO (wahh!)
-----Original Message-----
From: Tom Worley=20 [mailto:stkguru@netside.net]
Sent: Tuesday, November 20, = 2001 8:36=20 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 DRI C&H

To have a good rule, you must also have an=20 exception.
 
I think I did describe it as a = "juggernaut".
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Norman
Sent: Tuesday, November 20, = 2001 10:19=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DRI=20 C&H

Sorry = Kent,

The=20 curse failed to kill EPIQ (yet) so it is null and void=20 :-)

Norm

- ------_=_NextPart_001_01C172D1.46288F00-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 21 Nov 2001 20:32:03 -0800 From: "John Maycock" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] OT- Fiber capacity (Used to be Steel) This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0014_01C172CB.94873120 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit If I could add what I hope is some insight to this discussion. This has nothing to do with CANSLIM except as background information. There are two major issues facing the transport side of the telecomm industry, dark fiber and network capacity. Dark fiber is fiber that has been laid in the ground but is not yet carrying traffic. Network capacity is the transmission capacity available on “lit” fibers. As a fiber manufacturer Corning (GLW) is at the very end of the food chain, (70% of revenues IIRC). They had a really good run when everyone was installing new fiber cables. When new fiber cables are ordered, the incremental cost of installing additional strands of fiber is relatively low, a few cents per meter per fiber, compared to cable installation costs that can range from $2 to $10 and over per meter. Therefore to avoid having to install another cable, most service providers installed cables with many more fibers than needed, hence future proofing themselves against what they perceived as future demand and threats from the newly financed CLECs. That demand has not yet materialized and the competition has fizzled. As the fiber in the cables have near infinite capacity and at least a 40 year lifetime, I predict Corning will be in a sorry state for some time to come despite their attempts to diversify. Corning is a special case among the fiber optic companies. The situation is a little different for the equipment manufacturers. They will profit from growth in network capacity. Contrary to what you might think, demand for network capacity is still growing. The internet is still growing at 100% per year, though voice and transaction data are back to their regular 7%. The current big drivers for capacity are music downloads and potentially video downloads. By mid 2002 some routes in the US will require upgrades. However, the ILEC’s are in the catbird seat and are driving prices down as the equipment manufacturers fight for business. The big names in the optical transport equipment business are IMHO the ones most likely to survive, (Nortel, Lucent, Ciena, Alcatel and Fujitsu). There are others who have good market shares in non-North American markets who will also be around. The mantra of the industry is cost reduction. To make the battle for survival more interesting, there are predictions that Capex from the big 11 US carriers will drop a further 30+% YoY in 2002. Not only have we not yet seen the predicted consolidation among the equipment manufacturers, further consolidation is likely among the service providers. Only a few will survive. Despite all this gloom, there are some interesting stocks in the telecomm space. Network management software company TTIL was mentioned here recently. They allow service providers to reduce their operating costs. I do not mean to tout it, but it does stand out as having a decent earnings record in the face of a declining market. Please IBD, don’t write it up! John - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Wednesday, November 21, 2001 9:54 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Steel Thanks Bill, I'll look forward to taking a look. Lots of dark fiber out there and too much legislation hampering the last mile. A good combo of legislation that makes the last mile installation more cost effective for the providers, some good technological applications and further capacity take-out/industry consolidation should put the dark fiber to good use. GLW is a start...glad to see their change in strategy lately. D'you also see that they're refocusing their attention into other product lines as well? Very nice. Again, thanks for the link, Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: Bill Triffet To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Wednesday, November 21, 2001 11:51 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Steel Katherine, I receive this newsletter via email but is online as well called the Wave Report. This issue has a blurb about the telecom and fiber optics industry. Its http://www.wave-report.com/other-html-files/Currentwave.htm Talks about the meltdown of the telecom service providers and the bandwidth glut. Says Corning is closing a fiber plant for 3 months. - -Bill - ----- Original Message ----- From: Katherine Malm To: CANSLIM List Posting Sent: Wednesday, November 21, 2001 9:24 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Steel I've been watching the steel industry with great interest this last year for signs of economic recovery. Today, NUE, X, AKS are gapping up and breaking their downtrends. Granted, this is on news of consolidation in the industry, but it's exactly what you'd want to see to show signs of a bottom. Taking out excess capacity in any industry is a sign of a change in tone. Now, if we can just see more signs that "taking out excess capacity in telecom and fiber optics is occurring, I'd be *very* happy. Katherine - ------=_NextPart_000_0014_01C172CB.94873120 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

If= I could add what I hope is some insight to this discussion. This has nothing to = do with CANSLIM except as background information. =

 

Th= ere are two major issues facing the transport side of the telecomm industry, = dark fiber and network capacity. Dark fiber is fiber that has been laid in the = ground but is not yet carrying traffic. Network capacity is the transmission capacity = available on “lit” fibers. As a fiber manufacturer Corning (GLW) is at = the very end of the food chain, (70% of revenues IIRC). They had a really good run when = everyone was installing new fiber cables. When new fiber cables are ordered, the incremental cost of installing additional strands of fiber is relatively = low, a few cents per meter per fiber, compared to cable installation costs that = can range from $2 to $10 and over per meter. Therefore to avoid having to = install another cable, most service providers installed cables with many more = fibers than needed, hence future proofing themselves against what they = perceived as future demand and threats from the newly financed CLECs. That demand has = not yet materialized and the competition has fizzled. As the fiber in the = cables have near infinite capacity and at least a 40 year lifetime, I predict = Corning will be in a sorry state for some time to come despite their attempts to = diversify.

 

Co= rning is a special case among the fiber optic companies. The situation is a = little different for the equipment manufacturers. They will profit from growth = in network capacity. Contrary to what you might think, demand for network = capacity is still growing. The internet is still growing at 100% per year, though = voice and transaction data are back to their regular 7%. The current big = drivers for capacity are music downloads and potentially video downloads. By mid = 2002 some routes in the US will require upgrades. However, the ILEC’s are in = the catbird seat and are driving prices down as the equipment manufacturers fight = for business. The big names in the optical transport equipment business are = IMHO the ones most likely to survive, (Nortel, Lucent, Ciena, Alcatel and = Fujitsu). There are others who have good market shares in non-North American markets who = will also be around. The mantra of the industry is cost = reduction.

 

To= make the battle for survival more interesting, there are predictions that = Capex from the big 11 US carriers will drop a further 30+% YoY in 2002. Not only = have we not yet seen the predicted consolidation among the equipment = manufacturers, further consolidation is likely among the service providers. Only a few will = survive.

 

De= spite all this gloom, there are some interesting stocks in the telecomm space. = Network management software company TTIL was mentioned here recently. They allow = service providers to reduce their operating costs. I do not mean to tout it, but = it does stand out as having a decent earnings record in the face of a = declining market. Please IBD, don’t write it = up!

 

Jo= hn

 

 

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Wednesday, November = 21, 2001 9:54 AM
To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = Steel

 

Thanks Bill, I'll look forward to taking a look.<= /p>

 <= /p>

Lots of dark fiber out there and too much legislation hampering the last mile. A = good combo of legislation that makes the last mile installation more cost = effective for the providers, some good technological applications and further = capacity take-out/industry consolidation should put the dark fiber to good = use. GLW is a start...glad to see their change in strategy lately. D'you also see = that they're refocusing their attention into other product lines as well? = Very nice.<= /p>

 <= /p>

Again, thanks for the link,

 <= /p>

Katherine= <= /p>

----- Original Message -----

=

To: canslim@lists.xmission.com

Sent: Wednesday, = November 21, 2001 11:51 AM

Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Steel

 <= /p>

Katherine,<= /p>

 <= /p>

I receive this newsletter via email but is online as well called the Wave = Report. This issue has a blurb about the telecom and fiber optics industry. Its = http= ://www.wave-report.com/other-html-files/Currentwave.htm  Talks about the meltdown of the telecom service providers and the = bandwidth glut. Says Corning is closing a fiber plant for 3 = months.<= /p>

 <= /p>

-Bill<= /p>

 <= /p>

----- Original Message -----

=

To: CANSLIM List Posting

Sent: Wednesday, = November 21, 2001 9:24 AM

Subject: [CANSLIM] Steel

 <= /p>

I've been watching the steel industry with great interest this last year for = signs of economic recovery. Today, NUE, X, AKS are gapping up and breaking = their downtrends. Granted, this is on news of consolidation in the industry, = but it's exactly what you'd want to see to show signs of a bottom. Taking out = excess capacity in any industry is a sign of a change in tone. Now, if we can = just see more signs that "taking out excess capacity = in telecom and fiber optics is occurring, I'd be *very* = happy.<= /p>

 <= /p>

Katherine= <= /p>

- ------=_NextPart_000_0014_01C172CB.94873120-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1836 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.