From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1840 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, November 22 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1840 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Steel [CANSLIM] Re. Float Analysis Re: [CANSLIM] SHLR - Double Bottom? [CANSLIM] current holdings & Ques. Re: [CANSLIM] Steel Re: [CANSLIM] Steel Re: [CANSLIM] Re. Float Analysis [CANSLIM] CBRL Re: [CANSLIM] BVF Re: [CANSLIM] CBRL ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 22 Nov 2001 11:53:44 -0600 (CST) From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Steel Katherine, The problem still remains. While steel is fundamental to the modern economy, steel users are not tied to the US steel industry for their supplies. Please look for another indicator of the overall health of the manufacturing industry. Yes, I focused VERY narrowly on one part of your comments, and while that may not be fair, I feel it is pertinent to the discussion to point out the flaws in using this indicator. The health of the steel industry used to be a good indicator, but I feel that it is no longer a viable indicator of the health of the economy, or the manufacturing sector. Robert Gammon On Thu, 22 Nov 2001 09:01:49 -0600, Katherine Malm wrote: >Again, Robert, I must repeat. I am *not* looking at steel as a CANSLIM >candidate. I am looking at it only as a sign of economic activity. I do not >invest in cyclical or basic industries unless there is new innovation that >provides secular growth in the industry. Please don't misinterpret my >comments. > >Katherine > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Robert Gammon" >To: >Sent: Thursday, November 22, 2001 8:49 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Steel > > >> =============================================================== >> On Thu, 22 Nov 2001 08:28:48 -0600, Katherine Malm wrote: >> >> Hi Tom, >> >> My comment was not related to steel as a buy, but rather as a >> sign that excess industry capacity was beginning to be deleted. >> ================================================================ >> >> The union involved has correctly pointed out that steel capacity >> is a global issue, not just a US one. The proposed closings are >> a drop in the ocean, significant ONLY in the small mud puddle >> that is the US Steel industry. Virtually every nation with steel >> production capacity has more capacity than domestic industry can >> absorb (except perhaps for the USA). So where does the surplus >> production go? To the USA and countries that have not yet >> developed a domestic steel industry. There are precious few of >> the later, given that so much of the modern economy uses steel as >> a building block of industry. So, much of the excess capacity >> flows to the USA. >> >> The problems of the US Steel Industry are not going to be solved >> by this capacity reduction. If anything, the fallout from these >> closings will have long term negative effects on the industry. >> The problems need to be addressed at the International Political >> Level and at the International Trade level. The steel industry >> is quite often a matter of national pride, so a suggestion that >> 1/3 to 1/2 of capacity should be shutdown and a proportionate >> share of workers laid off will likely be received as a >> declaration of war. >> >> Steel stocks appear to me to be short term trading vehicles only. >> They stink as a long term holding, and I fail to see how we could >> construe these stocks as CANSLIM. >> >> Robert >> >> >> - >> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Nov 2001 14:12:12 EST From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. Float Analysis I'm not sure who brought Float Analysis up, but the original concept is= =20 such an ingenious way of portraying the market's activity that I just can't=20 let it go. =20 However (I just thought of this): Since the purpose of float analysis=20 is to identify accumulation (by equating the volume during a consolidation=20 [like in a Handle] to the Float), wouldn't a better identifier be to compare= =20 the volume to the percentage of the Float owned by Funds. For example: Float =3D100 Million; ADV=3D1 Million and Funds own 25% of= the=20 shares. So under the original concept of Float Analysis (as I understand=20 it), the entire float would be eaten up (accumulation would be taking=20 place-assuming, of course, the stock pattern is in a consolidation) in=20 4-5months (ie. 100 days). =20 However, if one uses my wrinkle then the Float would be in strong=20 hands in =BC the time (or 4-5 WEEKS). I am using the Funds as a big factor= in=20 my analysis because WON says that approximately 80% of the buying/selling in= =20 the market is due to institutions: aka (I hope), Funds.=20 jans=20 =20 - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Nov 2001 14:28:27 EST From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SHLR - Double Bottom? Scott: Everything on the chart does look decent to very good-but notice that the handle is upsloping. From WON's experience these formations are more proned to failure. For that reason, if I were buying now, I wouldn't touch SHLR, keeping in the mood of the season, with a 10 foot drumstick. jans In a message dated 11/22/2001 11:57:45 AM Eastern Standard Time, sgettis@ucla.edu writes: << Chart looks great? Up down volume is 3.6 as list on ibds stock checks. sales 139%, 82%, 209% last 3 quarters >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Nov 2001 16:07:30 EST From: Vanchee1@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] current holdings & Ques. - --part1_122.7dad79a.292ec312_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Here are my current holding, and I have a question for whoever wants to partake. I like SIDE and want to buy but need to sell one of my other holdings, so which one would you sell? JAKK 93/96 AAB JJSF 91/88 B MSA 90/90 AD STW BCB KRSL 82/95 ACTN 80/99 ADA ALLY 80/99 BB APOG 80/97 A Chris. - --part1_122.7dad79a.292ec312_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Here are my current holding, and I have a question for whoever wants to partake. I like SIDE and want to buy but need to sell one of my other holdings, so which one would you sell?

JAKK 93/96 AAB
JJSF 91/88 B
MSA 90/90 AD
STW BCB
KRSL 82/95
ACTN 80/99 ADA
ALLY 80/99 BB
APOG 80/97 A

Chris. - --part1_122.7dad79a.292ec312_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Nov 2001 15:26:16 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Steel Understand your point, Robert. The steel industry is complex and global and I am not disputing the point that you made regarding the industry, only the comment you made that it is not CANSLIM. Steel is not my *only* indicator, it is *an* indicator. If you read my other posts, you will see that I also mention other points as possible indicators of economic health. Things such as a turn in cyclicals, economically sensitive commodities, etc. I was also trying to point out that in general, seeing signs of consolidation and capacity take-out in an industry is healthy. To write off steel, in total, as an indicator is wrong, however. Whether we are the only producers or an element of global production, our health in the US economy is tied to global activity. Any way you look at it, steel is still a critical component of the economy. It is found everywhere, from building to oil tools, etc. Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Robert Gammon" To: Sent: Thursday, November 22, 2001 11:53 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Steel > Katherine, > The problem still remains. While steel is fundamental to the > modern economy, steel users are not tied to the US steel industry > for their supplies. Please look for another indicator of the > overall health of the manufacturing industry. Yes, I focused > VERY narrowly on one part of your comments, and while that may > not be fair, I feel it is pertinent to the discussion to point > out the flaws in using this indicator. The health of the steel > industry used to be a good indicator, but I feel that it is no > longer a viable indicator of the health of the economy, or the > manufacturing sector. > > Robert Gammon > > On Thu, 22 Nov 2001 09:01:49 -0600, Katherine Malm wrote: > > >Again, Robert, I must repeat. I am *not* looking at steel as a > CANSLIM > >candidate. I am looking at it only as a sign of economic > activity. I do not > >invest in cyclical or basic industries unless there is new > innovation that > >provides secular growth in the industry. Please don't > misinterpret my > >comments. > > > >Katherine > > > > > >----- Original Message ----- > >From: "Robert Gammon" > >To: > >Sent: Thursday, November 22, 2001 8:49 AM > >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Steel > > > > > >> > =============================================================== > >> On Thu, 22 Nov 2001 08:28:48 -0600, Katherine Malm wrote: > >> > >> Hi Tom, > >> > >> My comment was not related to steel as a buy, but rather as a > >> sign that excess industry capacity was beginning to be > deleted. > >> > ================================================================ > >> > >> The union involved has correctly pointed out that steel > capacity > >> is a global issue, not just a US one. The proposed closings > are > >> a drop in the ocean, significant ONLY in the small mud puddle > >> that is the US Steel industry. Virtually every nation with > steel > >> production capacity has more capacity than domestic industry > can > >> absorb (except perhaps for the USA). So where does the > surplus > >> production go? To the USA and countries that have not yet > >> developed a domestic steel industry. There are precious few > of > >> the later, given that so much of the modern economy uses steel > as > >> a building block of industry. So, much of the excess capacity > >> flows to the USA. > >> > >> The problems of the US Steel Industry are not going to be > solved > >> by this capacity reduction. If anything, the fallout from > these > >> closings will have long term negative effects on the industry. > >> The problems need to be addressed at the International > Political > >> Level and at the International Trade level. The steel > industry > >> is quite often a matter of national pride, so a suggestion > that > >> 1/3 to 1/2 of capacity should be shutdown and a proportionate > >> share of workers laid off will likely be received as a > >> declaration of war. > >> > >> Steel stocks appear to me to be short term trading vehicles > only. > >> They stink as a long term holding, and I fail to see how we > could > >> construe these stocks as CANSLIM. > >> > >> Robert > >> > >> > >> - > >> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > >> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > >> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > >- > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Nov 2001 16:32:36 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Steel This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0022_01C17373.4BC1A620 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Robert, I have told this story before, but think it's applicable to the present = situation where we have excess steel capacity for demand, and are trying = to identify when demand picks up (vs capacity being shut down) as a sign = of an improving economy. I would expect that excess capacity, at least = for now, will depress prices and profit margins, so the first sign will = more likely be on improving revenues than on earnings or gross / net = margins. My story: My Dad worked most of 40 years selling metals, everything from = Aluminum to Zinc (A to Z, get it?). I still recall him taking me to the = warehouse one Saturday and pointing out piles of steel laying in the = yard outside. He showed me one pile that barely had any surface rust on = it, and told me it was of US manufacturer and had been there outdoors = about three months. Then he showed me another pile, which was completely = covered with rust and deeply pitted. He explained that it was imported = (in that case from Japan) and had only been there several weeks. While = he only had a 2nd grade education, he had learned a great deal about = metallurgy and went into a detailed explanation of why one steel was = barely rusted and another was already deeply pitted, and how that would = require more finishing work depending on the application. That lesson, = that you get what you pay for, stayed with me the rest of my life.=20 I continue to this day to see Japanese cars rust out faster than US = built cars, so suspect the quality of steel remains an issue now. As = long as demand, and prices, remain depressed, I would hope to see the = better quality manufacturers benefit. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Robert Gammon=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, November 22, 2001 12:53 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Steel Katherine, The problem still remains. While steel is fundamental to the=20 modern economy, steel users are not tied to the US steel industry=20 for their supplies. Please look for another indicator of the=20 overall health of the manufacturing industry. Yes, I focused=20 VERY narrowly on one part of your comments, and while that may=20 not be fair, I feel it is pertinent to the discussion to point=20 out the flaws in using this indicator. The health of the steel=20 industry used to be a good indicator, but I feel that it is no=20 longer a viable indicator of the health of the economy, or the=20 manufacturing sector. Robert Gammon On Thu, 22 Nov 2001 09:01:49 -0600, Katherine Malm wrote: >Again, Robert, I must repeat. I am *not* looking at steel as a=20 CANSLIM >candidate. I am looking at it only as a sign of economic=20 activity. I do not >invest in cyclical or basic industries unless there is new=20 innovation that >provides secular growth in the industry. Please don't=20 misinterpret my >comments. > >Katherine > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Robert Gammon" >To: >Sent: Thursday, November 22, 2001 8:49 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Steel > > >>=20 = =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D >> On Thu, 22 Nov 2001 08:28:48 -0600, Katherine Malm wrote: >> >> Hi Tom, >> >> My comment was not related to steel as a buy, but rather as a >> sign that excess industry capacity was beginning to be=20 deleted. >>=20 = =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D >> >> The union involved has correctly pointed out that steel=20 capacity >> is a global issue, not just a US one. The proposed closings=20 are >> a drop in the ocean, significant ONLY in the small mud puddle >> that is the US Steel industry. Virtually every nation with=20 steel >> production capacity has more capacity than domestic industry=20 can >> absorb (except perhaps for the USA). So where does the=20 surplus >> production go? To the USA and countries that have not yet >> developed a domestic steel industry. There are precious few=20 of >> the later, given that so much of the modern economy uses steel=20 as >> a building block of industry. So, much of the excess capacity >> flows to the USA. >> >> The problems of the US Steel Industry are not going to be=20 solved >> by this capacity reduction. If anything, the fallout from=20 these >> closings will have long term negative effects on the industry. >> The problems need to be addressed at the International=20 Political >> Level and at the International Trade level. The steel=20 industry >> is quite often a matter of national pride, so a suggestion=20 that >> 1/3 to 1/2 of capacity should be shutdown and a proportionate >> share of workers laid off will likely be received as a >> declaration of war. >> >> Steel stocks appear to me to be short term trading vehicles=20 only. >> They stink as a long term holding, and I fail to see how we=20 could >> construe these stocks as CANSLIM. >> >> Robert >> >> >> - >> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_0022_01C17373.4BC1A620 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Robert,
 
I have told this story before, but think it's = applicable to=20 the present situation where we have excess steel capacity for demand, = and are=20 trying to identify when demand picks up (vs capacity being shut down) as = a sign=20 of an improving economy.  I would expect that excess capacity, at = least for=20 now, will depress prices and profit margins, so the first sign will more = likely=20 be on improving revenues than on earnings or gross / net = margins.
 
My story: My Dad worked most of 40 years selling = metals,=20 everything from Aluminum to Zinc (A to Z, get it?). I still recall him = taking me=20 to the warehouse one Saturday and pointing out piles of steel laying in = the yard=20 outside. He showed me one pile that barely had any surface rust on it, = and told=20 me it was of US manufacturer and had been there outdoors about three = months.=20 Then he showed me another pile, which was completely covered with rust = and=20 deeply pitted. He explained that it was imported (in that case from = Japan) and=20 had only been there several weeks. While he only had a 2nd grade = education, he=20 had learned a great deal about metallurgy and went into a detailed = explanation=20 of why one steel was barely rusted and another was already deeply = pitted, and=20 how that would require more finishing work depending on the application. = That=20 lesson, that you get what you pay for, stayed with me the rest of my = life.=20
 
I continue to this day to see Japanese cars rust out = faster=20 than US built cars, so suspect the quality of steel remains an issue = now. As=20 long as demand, and prices, remain depressed, I would hope to see the = better=20 quality manufacturers benefit.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Robert Gammon
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com =
Sent: Thursday, November 22, = 2001 12:53=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = Steel

Katherine,
   The problem still = remains. =20 While steel is fundamental to the
modern economy, steel users are = not tied=20 to the US steel industry
for their supplies.  Please look for = another=20 indicator of the
overall health of the manufacturing = industry.  Yes,=20 I focused
VERY narrowly on one part of your comments, and while = that may=20
not be fair, I feel it is pertinent to the discussion to point =
out the=20 flaws in using this indicator.  The health of the steel =
industry used=20 to be a good indicator, but I feel that it is no
longer a viable = indicator=20 of the health of the economy, or the
manufacturing = sector.

Robert=20 Gammon

On Thu, 22 Nov 2001 09:01:49 -0600, Katherine Malm=20 wrote:

>Again, Robert, I must repeat. I am *not* looking at = steel as=20 a
CANSLIM
>candidate. I am looking at it only as a sign of = economic=20
activity. I do not
>invest in cyclical or basic industries = unless=20 there is new
innovation that
>provides secular growth in the = industry. Please don't
misinterpret=20 = my
>comments.
>
>Katherine
>
>
>-----= =20 Original Message -----
>From: "Robert Gammon" <r.gammon51@worldnet.att.net>
>To:=20 <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
>Sent:=20 Thursday, November 22, 2001 8:49 AM
>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]=20 Steel
>
>
>>=20 =
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
>>=20 On Thu, 22 Nov 2001 08:28:48 -0600, Katherine Malm=20 wrote:
>>
>> Hi Tom,
>>
>> My = comment was=20 not related to steel as a buy, but rather as a
>> sign that = excess=20 industry capacity was beginning to be
deleted.
>>=20 =
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
>>
>> = The union involved has correctly pointed out that steel=20
capacity
>> is a global issue, not just a US one.  = The=20 proposed closings
are
>> a drop in the ocean, significant = ONLY in=20 the small mud puddle
>> that is the US Steel industry. =20 Virtually every nation with
steel
>> production capacity = has more=20 capacity than domestic industry
can
>> absorb (except = perhaps for=20 the USA).  So where does the
surplus
>> production = go? =20 To the USA and countries that have not yet
>> developed a = domestic=20 steel industry.  There are precious few
of
>> the = later,=20 given that so much of the modern economy uses steel
as
>> = a=20 building block of industry.  So, much of the excess = capacity
>>=20 flows to the USA.
>>
>> The problems of the US Steel = Industry are not going to be
solved
>> by this capacity=20 reduction.  If anything, the fallout from
these
>> = closings=20 will have long term negative effects on the industry.
>> The = problems=20 need to be addressed at the International
Political
>> = Level and=20 at the International Trade level.  The steel =
industry
>> is=20 quite often a matter of national pride, so a suggestion =
that
>>=20 1/3 to 1/2 of capacity should be shutdown and a = proportionate
>>=20 share of workers laid off will likely be received as a
>> = declaration=20 of war.
>>
>> Steel stocks appear to me to be short = term=20 trading vehicles
only.
>> They stink as a long term = holding, and=20 I fail to see how we
could
>> construe these stocks as=20 CANSLIM.
>>
>> = Robert
>>
>>
>>=20 -
>> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
>= ;>=20 -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
>> = - -"unsubscribe=20 canslim".  Do not use quotes in your=20 email.
>
>
>-
>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, = email "majordomo@xmission.com"
>= ;-In=20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
>-"unsubscribe=20 canslim".  Do not use quotes in your = email.



-
-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_0022_01C17373.4BC1A620-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Nov 2001 16:36:41 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re. Float Analysis This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_002B_01C17373.DD35AC00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable What would make this approach difficult, if not impossible, to apply is = that funds only report holdings quarterly. So you would have a huge time = lag in accurate data from them. Additionally, other institutions = (pension funds, insurance companies, banks) can also become substantial = holders of the float during a quarter, but unless they go over 5% they = don't have to file a report.=20 And different sites give often vastly different data on holdings by = funds and other institutional owners. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Spencer48@aol.com=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, November 22, 2001 2:12 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. Float Analysis I'm not sure who brought Float Analysis up, but the original = concept is=20 such an ingenious way of portraying the market's activity that I just = can't=20 let it go. =20 However (I just thought of this): Since the purpose of float = analysis=20 is to identify accumulation (by equating the volume during a = consolidation=20 [like in a Handle] to the Float), wouldn't a better identifier be to = compare=20 the volume to the percentage of the Float owned by Funds. For example: Float =3D100 Million; ADV=3D1 Million and Funds own = 25% of the=20 shares. So under the original concept of Float Analysis (as I = understand=20 it), the entire float would be eaten up (accumulation would be taking=20 place-assuming, of course, the stock pattern is in a consolidation) in = 4-5months (ie. 100 days). =20 However, if one uses my wrinkle then the Float would be in = strong=20 hands in =BC the time (or 4-5 WEEKS). I am using the Funds as a big = factor in=20 my analysis because WON says that approximately 80% of the = buying/selling in=20 the market is due to institutions: aka (I hope), Funds.=20 jans=20 =20 - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_002B_01C17373.DD35AC00 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
What would make this approach difficult, if not = impossible, to=20 apply is that funds only report holdings quarterly. So you would have a = huge=20 time lag in accurate data from them. Additionally, other institutions = (pension=20 funds, insurance companies, banks) can also become substantial holders = of the=20 float during a quarter, but unless they go over 5% they don't have to = file a=20 report.
 
And different sites give often vastly different data = on=20 holdings by funds and other institutional owners.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Spencer48@aol.com
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com =
Sent: Thursday, November 22, = 2001 2:12=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. Float=20 Analysis

     I'm not sure who brought Float = Analysis up, but the original concept is
such an ingenious way of=20 portraying the market's activity that I just can't
let it=20 go.
 
     However (I just thought of=20 this):  Since the purpose of float analysis
is to identify=20 accumulation (by equating the volume during a consolidation
[like = in a=20 Handle] to the Float), wouldn't a better identifier be to compare =
the=20 volume to the percentage of the Float owned by=20 Funds.

     For example: Float =3D100 = Million; ADV=3D1=20 Million and Funds own 25% of the
shares.  So under the = original=20 concept of Float Analysis (as I understand
it), the entire float = would be=20 eaten up (accumulation would be taking
place-assuming, of course, = the=20 stock pattern is in a consolidation) in
4-5months (ie. 100 = days). =20

     However, if  one uses my wrinkle = then=20 the Float would  be in strong
hands in =BC the time (or 4-5=20 WEEKS).  I am using  the Funds as a big factor in
my = analysis=20 because WON says that approximately 80% of the buying/selling in =
the=20 market is due to institutions: aka (I hope), Funds.

jans=20

   

-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, = email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_002B_01C17373.DD35AC00-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Nov 2001 17:03:41 -0500 From: "Al French" Subject: [CANSLIM] CBRL CBRL broke out, volume > 250%, of a one-year deep cup with a three-week handle 11/21. The right side of the cup looks close to LLUR. IBD numbers are 94 65 91 ACA PE = 13. Indicators show strong accumulation. Earnings have not been real good during past year, but quarterly report yesterday said EPS up 17%, sales up 4.8%, and company projects improvement for next quarter. I'm thinking of buying tomorrow limit yesterday's close of $26.59 with a close stop just below $26 support/resistance for a low-risk entry. Any comments? - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Nov 2001 19:47:12 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BVF This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00BC_01C1738E.7B211340 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable If you are referring to the past 7 weeks or so, I would not see that as = a double bottom. The variance from high to low is not sufficient. = Rather, I would simply see it as a ragged consolidation going on between = 47 and 51. I do note that it is now valued (market cap) at 13 times the last 4 qtrs = of sales. Even with its strong growth in earnings this year, that is = still pretty high valuation. Note also that earnings growth next year is = forecast to slow from 57% this year to 28%. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Scott Gettis=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, November 22, 2001 11:17 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] BVF Double Bottom? Would like to see a tight handle form on low volume. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_00BC_01C1738E.7B211340 Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
If you are referring to the past 7 weeks or so, I = would not=20 see that as a double bottom. The variance from high to low is not = sufficient.=20 Rather, I would simply see it as a ragged consolidation going on between = 47 and=20 51.
 
I do note that it is now valued (market cap) at 13 = times the=20 last 4 qtrs of sales. Even with its strong growth in earnings this year, = that is=20 still pretty high valuation. Note also that earnings growth next year is = forecast to slow from 57% this year to 28%.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Scott = Gettis=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com =
Sent: Thursday, November 22, = 2001 11:17=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] BVF

Double Bottom?  Would like to see a tight handle = form on=20 low volume.

-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_00BC_01C1738E.7B211340-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Nov 2001 19:58:42 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CBRL This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00D2_01C17390.15F5CE00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Al, The Friday after Thanksgiving is the first big day for retail sales, but = it is not a day I recommend investors open new positions, especially at = a new high. Volume usually is the lightest day of the year, so a lot can = happen. And most of the big boys are out of the office at the Hamptons = or wherever enjoying a long weekend. When they come back on Monday, they = often start hitting the stocks that the rookies left behind were moving = up on Friday. I would also note that the earnings forecast for 2002 (ends July) is for = only 15%, well below CANSLIM standards. Normally you should be using a stop loss of 8% from entry. If you do not = have the confidence in an $26.59 entry price to use a stop loss of = around $24.49, then I would suggest you rethink your plans to buy this = one. Otherwise, you are just setting yourself up to be quickly stopped = out with a loss of capital and two commissions. Don't confuse yourself with trying to apply LLUR to the right side of a = cup. A good and reliable LLUR pattern should ideally be a year long. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Al French=20 To: Canslim=20 Sent: Thursday, November 22, 2001 5:03 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] CBRL CBRL broke out, volume > 250%, of a one-year deep cup with a three-week handle 11/21. The right side of the cup looks close to LLUR. IBD numbers are 94 65 91 ACA PE =3D 13. Indicators show strong accumulation. Earnings have not been real good during past year, but quarterly report yesterday said EPS up 17%, sales up 4.8%, and company projects improvement for next quarter. I'm thinking of buying tomorrow limit yesterday's close of $26.59 with a close stop just below $26 support/resistance for a low-risk entry. Any comments? - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_00D2_01C17390.15F5CE00 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Al,
 
The Friday after Thanksgiving is the first big day = for retail=20 sales, but it is not a day I recommend investors open new positions, = especially=20 at a new high. Volume usually is the lightest day of the year, so a lot = can=20 happen. And most of the big boys are out of the office at the Hamptons = or=20 wherever enjoying a long weekend. When they come back on Monday, they = often=20 start hitting the stocks that the rookies left behind were moving up on=20 Friday.
 
I would also note that the earnings forecast for = 2002 (ends=20 July) is for only 15%, well below CANSLIM standards.
 
Normally you should be using a stop loss of 8% from = entry. If=20 you do not have the confidence in an $26.59 entry price to use a stop = loss of=20 around $24.49, then I would suggest you rethink your plans to buy this = one.=20 Otherwise, you are just setting yourself up to be quickly stopped out = with a=20 loss of capital and two commissions.
 
Don't confuse yourself with trying to apply LLUR to = the right=20 side of a cup. A good and reliable LLUR pattern should ideally be a year = long.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Al=20 French
To: Canslim
Sent: Thursday, November 22, = 2001 5:03=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] CBRL

CBRL broke out, volume > 250%, of a one-year deep = cup with=20 a
three-week handle 11/21.  The right side of the cup looks = close=20 to
LLUR.  IBD numbers are 94 65 91 ACA PE =3D 13.  = Indicators=20 show
strong accumulation.  Earnings have not been real good = during=20 past
year, but quarterly report yesterday said EPS up 17%, sales=20 up
4.8%, and company projects improvement for next = quarter.

I'm=20 thinking of buying tomorrow limit yesterday's close of $26.59
with = a close=20 stop just below $26 support/resistance for a low-risk
entry.  = Any=20 comments?


-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_00D2_01C17390.15F5CE00-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1840 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.