Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
- ------=_NextPart_000_006D_01C174C6.B10620C0
Content-Type: text/plain;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
HOUSING STARTS / PERMITS
The economic week starts with a report that is the proverbial "half =
full" glass. While Housing Starts declined, they were still better than =
expected at an annual rate of 1.55 million units, down from September's =
1.57 but above expectations of 1.52 mil. Permits slipped more sharply, =
to an annual rate of 1.47 million, down from September's 1.52 and below =
expectations of a 1.49 rate. It's too early to tell if the steadily =
falling mortgage rates will yet cause the housing sector to recover, as =
it takes 3 months to show a meaningful trend on permits, and five months =
on starts. It should also be noted that single family homes fared much =
better overall in both starts and permits, but still declined.
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -------
TRADE DEFICIT
As we all know, economic activity slowed sharply following the 9/11 =
attacks. This is clearly reflected in the Trade Deficit report for =
September. Exports dropped from $84.5 billion to $77.3 billion while =
imports slumped much faster, from $111.6 billion to $96 billion. =
Undoubtedly, lower energy prices contributed to part of the drop in =
imports. Overall, the decline in the trade deficit of $8.4 billion to =
$18.7 billion was the biggest monthly drop since the Govt started =
tracking this data in Jan '92. It is also the smallest deficit since =
March 1999. Don't forget, this is a global economy now, so if we import =
substantially less, it hurts other economies as well.
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -------
OTHER "M" STUFF
New unemployment claims fell for the 4th consecutive week, and below =
expectations. This is the lowest since the week of the 9/11 attacks. =
Univ. of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment poll showed a small improvement =
for early November, to 83.9 from 82.7, second month of improvement. =
Expectations of a "mild" recession are being improved for an even milder =
one than was anticipated. Of course, this may also stay the hand of the =
Feds at cutting rates again in December.=20
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -------
WHERE HAS THE MONEY BEEN FLOWING?
I have written before about where the money goes, when the stock market =
makes a sustained move. You only need to look at a chart of the DJ =
Utilities Index to see that money has been flowing out of that sector =
since late May. While considered a "safe haven" at a time of crises, or =
when funds must be invested but don't want to be in the stock market, it =
generally pays a yield better than a money market, and is not as =
volatile. During the third quarter, stock mutual funds had net outflow =
of money every month, with September the greatest at $29.5 billion, a =
new record. Percentage wise, however, this was only 1% of the over $3 =
trillion dollars in stock funds, thus well under the 3.1% withdrawal =
rate when Iraq invaded Kuwait. In October, stock funds saw a small =
inflow of money estimated at $200 million. Judging by the steady =
increase in volume on the major exchanges, I expect November to be =
stronger. During September, bond funds had net inflow of $7.6 billion =
while money market funds received over $53 billion. So a lot more went =
in here, than came out of stock funds.
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -------
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES
The population of stocks I am considering this weekend appears to be =
shrinking slightly.
As always, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks duration. If I see a =
particular pattern (c&h, h&s, double bottom, etc) I will say so. Unless =
otherwise indicated, both RS and EPS are 80 or above.
# means I either own it outright or have it in my VR fund
=20
AAON - c&h, low earnings forecast, low PE
ACDO - triple bottom, strong earnings forecast, close to pivot
ACS - resuming LLUR
AIM - LLUR, one easy quarterly comparison left
AMFH - B4
AMG - c&h, handle formed slightly below the high and not drooped, but =
volume drying up
ASFI - # high handle, EPS 73
AZO - B2
BIOA - very high handle, strong earnings forecast
BOKF - LLUR
BRO - B5
BYS - handle forming right at the pivot, low ADV (3,200) but strong =
earnings
CACI - very volatile B4, strong earnings
CBH - B3
CPS - 3 week high handle, good earnings, volume drying up
CVBF - B5
DLX - nice LLUR
DNB - c&h
DVA - high handle, double bottom
FCN - more a base on base now than LLUR
FESX - nice orderly c&h
FLO - high handle, volume drying up
FTN - extreme case of a double bottom?
HLYW - ragged LLUR
HRH - B5
IBCP - B4 on a jagged cup, earnings slowing
ICBC - 4 week handle on a deep cup, volume drying up nicely
JNC - LLUR
MI - B3
PHC - B7, earnings, growth may be stagnating
PSA - weak double bottom
PTV - c&h
RAH - saucer
RAIL - c&h, strong earnings
SCFS - c&h, good earnings
STFR - c&h
TASR - # news driven, EPS 55
WFMI - LLUR
WMAR - # B5, EPS 68
Happy Hunting,
God bless America,
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
- ------=_NextPart_000_006D_01C174C6.B10620C0
Content-Type: text/html;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
HOUSING STARTS / =
PERMITS
The economic week starts with a report that is the =
proverbial=20
"half full" glass. While Housing Starts declined, they were still better =
than=20
expected at an annual rate of 1.55 million units, down from September's =
1.57 but=20
above expectations of 1.52 mil. Permits slipped more sharply, to an =
annual rate=20
of 1.47 million, down from September's 1.52 and below expectations of a =
1.49=20
rate. It's too early to tell if the steadily falling mortgage rates will =
yet=20
cause the housing sector to recover, as it takes 3 months to show a =
meaningful=20
trend on permits, and five months on starts. It should also be noted =
that single=20
family homes fared much better overall in both starts and permits, but =
still=20
declined.
TRADE DEFICIT
As we all know, economic activity slowed sharply following the 9/11 =
attacks. This is clearly reflected in the Trade Deficit report for =
September.=20
Exports dropped from $84.5 billion to $77.3 billion while imports =
slumped much=20
faster, from $111.6 billion to $96 billion. Undoubtedly, lower energy =
prices=20
contributed to part of the drop in imports. Overall, the decline in the =
trade=20
deficit of $8.4 billion to $18.7 billion was the biggest monthly drop =
since the=20
Govt started tracking this data in Jan '92. It is also the smallest =
deficit=20
since March 1999. Don't forget, this is a global economy now, so if we =
import=20
substantially less, it hurts other economies as well.
OTHER "M" STUFF
New unemployment claims fell for the 4th consecutive week, and =
below=20
expectations. This is the lowest since the week of the 9/11 =
attacks. Univ.=20
of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment poll showed a small improvement for =
early=20
November, to 83.9 from 82.7, second month of improvement. Expectations =
of a=20
"mild" recession are being improved for an even milder one than was =
anticipated.=20
Of course, this may also stay the hand of the Feds at cutting rates =
again in=20
December.=20
WHERE HAS THE MONEY BEEN FLOWING?
I have written before about where the money goes, when the stock =
market=20
makes a sustained move. You only need to look at a chart of the DJ =
Utilities=20
Index to see that money has been flowing out of that sector since late =
May.=20
While considered a "safe haven" at a time of crises, or when funds must =
be=20
invested but don't want to be in the stock market, it generally pays a =
yield=20
better than a money market, and is not as volatile. During the third =
quarter,=20
stock mutual funds had net outflow of money every month, with September =
the=20
greatest at $29.5 billion, a new record. Percentage wise, however, this =
was only=20
1% of the over $3 trillion dollars in stock funds, thus well under the =
3.1%=20
withdrawal rate when Iraq invaded Kuwait. In October, stock funds saw a =
small=20
inflow of money estimated at $200 million. Judging by the steady =
increase in=20
volume on the major exchanges, I expect November to be stronger. During=20
September, bond funds had net inflow of $7.6 billion while money market =
funds=20
received over $53 billion. So a lot more went in here, than came out of =
stock=20
funds.
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES
The population of stocks I am considering this weekend appears to =
be=20
shrinking slightly.
As always, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks duration. If I =
see a=20
particular pattern (c&h, h&s, double bottom, etc) I will say so. =
Unless=20
otherwise indicated, both RS and EPS are 80 or above.
# means I either own it outright or have it in my VR fund
AAON - c&h, low earnings forecast, low =
PE
ACDO - triple bottom, strong earnings forecast, =
close to=20
pivot
ACS - resuming LLUR
AIM - LLUR, one easy quarterly comparison =
left
AMFH - B4
AMG - c&h, handle formed slightly below the high =
and not=20
drooped, but volume drying up
ASFI - # high handle, EPS 73
AZO - B2
BIOA - very high handle, strong earnings =
forecast
BOKF - LLUR
BRO - B5
BYS - handle forming right at the pivot, low ADV =
(3,200) but=20
strong earnings
CACI - very volatile B4, strong =
earnings
CBH - B3
CPS - 3 week high handle, good earnings, volume =
drying=20
up
CVBF - B5
DLX - nice LLUR
DNB - c&h
DVA - high handle, double bottom
FCN - more a base on base now than LLUR
FESX - nice orderly c&h
FLO - high handle, volume drying up
FTN - extreme case of a double bottom?
HLYW - ragged LLUR
HRH - B5
IBCP - B4 on a jagged cup, earnings =
slowing
ICBC - 4 week handle on a deep cup, volume =
drying up=20
nicely
JNC - LLUR
MI - B3
PHC - B7, earnings, growth may be =
stagnating
PSA - weak double bottom
PTV - c&h
RAH - saucer
RAIL - c&h, strong earnings
SCFS - c&h, good earnings
STFR - c&h
TASR - # news driven, EPS 55
WFMI - LLUR
WMAR - # B5, EPS 68
Happy Hunting,
God bless America,
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20
TexWorley
- ------=_NextPart_000_006D_01C174C6.B10620C0--
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 24 Nov 2001 09:42:21 EST
From: Mhboatman@aol.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ - Fw: Wednesday's collapse
Thanks Tom, for the follow through with the company. It must be the IBD
curse that did it. What makes me mad is the market dropped just enough to
hit my hard stop. If it would have been a day in which I could have been
watching the market I may have over ridden my stop. I believe it will firm
up and recover. However, I am out and will stay out for now. But I would
value your opinion on this situation. Would you look at Wednesday's action
as a 'buy on a pull back' situation? Or was this pull back so severe that it
will likely go through another basing action before moving up. In either
case I see the sell point at or just under $40. How do you see it?
Howard
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 24 Nov 2001 05:09:11 -0600
From: "Michael Norman"
Subject: [CANSLIM] Manager for an Einstein Bros
I am the Assistant Manager for an Einstein Brothers Bagels in TX. A lot of
the problems that stores have are that the profit margins are so tight. The
labor cost is 1 of two areas that we have to watch the closest. If labor is
running to high then we have to send people home early. IT HURTS THE GUEST.
Managers above the store level do not care as long as there numbers are
showing positive results. We use rundown and broken equipment because there
is not enough money in the budget to fix or get new.
We as store managers spend a large amount of our time doing paperwork by
hand that the computer should do for us. A human sit there with a pencil and
adding machine IS GOING TO BE SUBJECT TO HUMAN AROR. We lose hours of time
with computer systems that crash. Weekly! These problems are not fixed
because they cost money that the company wants to use to keep the investors
happy. It is a no win problem.
Michael
_________________________________________________________________
Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 24 Nov 2001 09:06:10 -0600
From: "Katherine Malm"
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Manager for an Einstein Bros
Michael,
I'm not surprised to hear you tell these tales. The parent company's stock
sells for about $.40 and I'm sure that it's reflective of a company run by
short sighted high level management. It's too bad, because I think, as a
customer, that Einstein has a very innovative menu and high-quality
products that seem to retain their consistency visit to visit. I have
noticed, however, that the staff has been turning over with increasing
frequency, and I'm sure that has to do with the kinds of things you mention.
From an investor's point of view, this is a great example of a "good
concept" with "poor strategic vision and implementation." In my book of
fundamental business analysis, that's a big fat X for a stock like this.
Thanks for sharing your point of view as an insider,
Katherine
kmalm@earthlink.net
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Norman"
To:
Sent: Saturday, November 24, 2001 5:09 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Manager for an Einstein Bros
> I am the Assistant Manager for an Einstein Brothers Bagels in TX. A lot of
> the problems that stores have are that the profit margins are so tight.
The
> labor cost is 1 of two areas that we have to watch the closest. If labor
is
> running to high then we have to send people home early. IT HURTS THE
GUEST.
> Managers above the store level do not care as long as there numbers are
> showing positive results. We use rundown and broken equipment because
there
> is not enough money in the budget to fix or get new.
>
> We as store managers spend a large amount of our time doing paperwork by
> hand that the computer should do for us. A human sit there with a pencil
and
> adding machine IS GOING TO BE SUBJECT TO HUMAN AROR. We lose hours of time
> with computer systems that crash. Weekly! These problems are not fixed
> because they cost money that the company wants to use to keep the
investors
> happy. It is a no win problem.
>
> Michael
>
> _________________________________________________________________
> Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 24 Nov 2001 11:52:23 -0700
From: esetser
Subject: [CANSLIM] Deja Vu, all over again
Looking at today's Investor's Corner, I got a solid case of Deja Vu. It is
discussing the TARO breakout and breakdown, and points out other failures
in the same group that should have been a solid warning.
Hmm, I don't remember this warning from IBD before it failed, but I do seem
to remember a similar discussion here. Good call Katherine!!
Oh, and maybe you should call IBD about using your Intellectual Property?
Nah, just kidding.
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 24 Nov 2001 13:34:06 -0600
From: "Katherine Malm"
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Deja Vu, all over again
Too funny, hadn't even looked at the paper until your note. Thank goodness
for date stamps... ;))
"Everything's been thought of before....the difficulty is to think of it
again" --Ruskin
Katherine
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "esetser"
To:
Sent: Saturday, November 24, 2001 12:52 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Deja Vu, all over again
> Looking at today's Investor's Corner, I got a solid case of Deja Vu. It
is
> discussing the TARO breakout and breakdown, and points out other failures
> in the same group that should have been a solid warning.
>
> Hmm, I don't remember this warning from IBD before it failed, but I do
seem
> to remember a similar discussion here. Good call Katherine!!
>
> Oh, and maybe you should call IBD about using your Intellectual Property?
> Nah, just kidding.
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
------------------------------
Date: Sat, 24 Nov 2001 14:50:23 -0500
From: "Tom Worley"
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ - Fw: Wednesday's collapse
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
- ------=_NextPart_000_000B_01C174F7.58A5F5A0
Content-Type: text/plain;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Howard,
I believe in the long term picture for the company, so after having it =
go up over 500% already for me, I am reluctant to set selling target =
prices.
I consider the well established base at 30 as excellent support, which =
is why I was trying to steal some shares there. I don't know that I =
would chase it on Monday after Friday's gains until either I better =
understood the sell off, or saw at least a short base formed.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Mhboatman@aol.com=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, November 24, 2001 9:42 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ - Fw: Wednesday's collapse
Thanks Tom, for the follow through with the company. It must be the =
IBD=20
curse that did it. What makes me mad is the market dropped just =
enough to=20
hit my hard stop. If it would have been a day in which I could have =
been=20
watching the market I may have over ridden my stop. I believe it will =
firm=20
up and recover. However, I am out and will stay out for now. But I =
would=20
value your opinion on this situation. Would you look at Wednesday's =
action=20
as a 'buy on a pull back' situation? Or was this pull back so severe =
that it=20
will likely go through another basing action before moving up. In =
either=20
case I see the sell point at or just under $40. How do you see it?
Howard
-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_000B_01C174F7.58A5F5A0
Content-Type: text/html;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Howard,
I believe in the long term picture for the company, =
so after=20
having it go up over 500% already for me, I am reluctant to set selling =
target=20
prices.
I consider the well established base at 30 as =
excellent=20
support, which is why I was trying to steal some shares there. I don't =
know that=20
I would chase it on Monday after Friday's gains until either I better =
understood=20
the sell off, or saw at least a short base formed.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20
TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20
Mhboatman@aol.com
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com =
Sent: Saturday, November 24, =
2001 9:42=20
AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] EPIQ - =
Fw:=20
Wednesday's collapse
Thanks Tom, for the follow through with the =
company. It=20
must be the IBD
curse that did it. What makes me mad is the =
market=20
dropped just enough to
hit my hard stop. If it would have =
been a day=20
in which I could have been
watching the market I may have over =
ridden my=20
stop. I believe it will firm
up and recover. However, =
I am out=20
and will stay out for now. But I would
value your opinion on =
this=20
situation. Would you look at Wednesday's action
as a 'buy on =
a pull=20
back' situation? Or was this pull back so severe that it =
will likely=20
go through another basing action before moving up. In either =
case I=20
see the sell point at or just under $40. How do you see=20
it?
Howard
-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In=
the=20
email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe =
canslim". Do=20
not use quotes in your email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_000B_01C174F7.58A5F5A0--
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
------------------------------
End of canslim-digest V2 #1846
******************************
To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com"
with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message.
For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send
"help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.