From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1941 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, December 12 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1941 In this issue: RE: [CANSLIM] RE: azo and mike RE: [CANSLIM] clarification RE: [CANSLIM]"Rubberband Sell Rule" ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 12 Dec 2001 20:34:31 -0600 From: "John Adair" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] RE: azo and mike Thanks Tim. it looks like azo usually finds support at the 2o day mov - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2001 8:23 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RE: azo and mike Obviously it is time for AZO to find support. MIKE - if you own it (like me!) you're smilin' If you don't, you're not. I might buy it now but I bet the Xmas break will be a good time for it to correct. At 09:59 PM 12/11/2001 -0600, you wrote: >Anyone > what do you think of azo and mike in the immediate future? > >-----Original Message----- >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm >Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 10:28 AM >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: Re: INTV (was [CANSLIM] ALLY ) > >Caution on INTV. Gap down on updated earnings guidance. Low vol bounce off >14 or any break below pivot and I'd say sayonara. > >Katherine >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Tim Fisher" >To: >Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 10:48 AM >Subject: [CANSLIM] ALLY > > > > B/O this AM. Also CACI looking good altho this one is extended. Discl: I > > own both. INTV: toilet-bound. > > > > Tim Fisher > > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > > Pacific Fishery Biologists Information > > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. Tim Fisher Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site Pacific Fishery Biologists Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 12 Dec 2001 20:47:32 -0600 From: "John Adair" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] clarification Hi Erick If I am reading your post right correctly you would say your risk on a $50 stock with a $5.00 stop would be $50.00 -$5.00 or $45.00. If that is what you are saying I would not agree I would say your risk is $5.00 if I understand what Tharp suggests. Tharp then limits your risk to the 1% is based on that figure 1% ( 3% for the gunslinger) of your total capitol. John Adair - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tangen, Eric Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2001 7:19 PM To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] clarification The latter....your risk is your buy price less the stop. Rule of thumb: that number should be 1% or less of your total trading capital. So if you want in on a more volatile stock, just buy less of it...but don't set the stop at 7-8% if the stock has a 10% daily trading range - another point HTMMIS doesn't address. Trading any system with a 7-8% risk for each trade is a receipe for disaster. The pros use a 1% limit. If (as in HTMMIS suggest) you split up your capital evenly amoung 5-6 stocks and used an arbitrary 7-8% stop loss, statistically, it would be very easy to get enough losing trades to loose all your money. The unspoken 40% reliability of the WON breakouts only makes this bad situation worse. I'm afraid that a quick reading of HTMMIS gives the impression that if you can identify the perfect C+H setup and all the other CANSLIM criteria are in place, you can get darn near 100% reliability of a breakout. I have a big problem with that. I'm not down on CANSLIM...just like people to know the reality of the situation. Your going for home runs here and home run hitters have a lot of strikeouts. ERIC TANGEN - -----Original Message----- From: Katherine Malm [mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net] Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2001 2:02 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] clarification >>If you put 7-8% of your trading capital > at risk on any one trade Now that I've been mulling over your comment, it begs another question. Are you suggesting the *total* monies invested in a trade are "at risk"? Or the amount which you've specified in downside stop-loss protection as "at risk."? Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tangen, Eric" To: Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2001 1:46 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] clarification > Welcome to the club! Breakouts are a high risk and high reward strategy - if > you're batting .500, that's pretty darn good. You should expect 40% success > at finding successful breakouts long-term. > > I just have to get this off my chest for the new subscribers...WON's 7-8% > stop below the pivot is a technical stop. It is a rule of thumb based on > volatility in the handle region before a stock takes off. > > It is NOT A MONEY MANAGEMENT STOP!. If you put 7-8% of your trading capital > at risk on any one trade, you will eventually pay some really serious Wall > Street tuition on the path to becoming successful trader. > > WON's work has virtually nothing in the area of money management (what he > does say is just plain outdated...by 5 stocks with 100k...more appropriate > to an era of high commissions and lower volatility). > > Tharp's books are the best (only?) work in this area and should be required > reading before you head out to the great casino that is Wall Street. > > ERIC TANGEN - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 12 Dec 2001 20:55:46 -0600 From: "John Adair" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM]"Rubberband Sell Rule" This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0012_01C1834F.5F0E1CE0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Thanks Katherine for the clarification. - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 8:51 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]"Rubberband Sell Rule" Hi John, The original discussion of this came up on the AZO thread, then again on "PECS & the Rubberband sell rule" if you want to get more of the discussion. But the criteria for the rule is: If all three of these criteria are met, be prepared to sell, as the price can fall 15-25%: (1) >125% above the recent base low AND (2) >70% above the 200 day MA AND (3) >25% above the 50 day MA. This is an enhancement to WON's "may want to sell if the stock is 70%+ above the 200 day MA." It's really just about quantifying the degree of extension from its base and moving averages and the likelihood that short term players will be taking profits. Hope that helps! Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: John Adair To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 8:58 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM]"Rubberband Sell Rule" Hi Katherine. I entered your ss in my ss and I have trouble understanding what your conclusion is saying in the cell =IF(F4>0,IF(AND(H4>1.25,I4>0.25,J4>0.7),"***Sell triggered ","OK"),"n/a") If current price>0, if base low >125%and 50 day mov> .25and 200 day mov >.7 it looks like you are requiring all these conditions for a sell signal. Do I have it right if not please tell me in English( what this is saying) - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 6:53 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]"Rubberband Sell Rule" Hi Pat, As of now, I manually enter the base low (because that's a read off the charts--I use the DGO marker) and the MA's. My software automatically calculates the MA's, but does not allow me to export them as values. Even the new DGO beta doesn't allow that, though you can screen on % above/below the MA's. (aaargh) The Price I export from my software along with other information each day, so it's no problem. I know there's software/charting packages that would export the MA's but unfortunately, I don't own any of them! I'm only worried about calculating something like this on my holdings or on potential shorts, so the list isn't all that big. Before I set up these calcs in my watch spreadsheet, I used to do the calculations by hand. Now *that's* crazy, isn't it! My pleasure to share the spreadsheet, Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: Pat To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 7:45 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]"Rubberband Sell Rule" Katherine, Do you manually enter the data for each stock? Or is there a free source that will provide the necessary data that one could copy & paste easily into the Robberband Spreadsheet? Thanks for sharing the spreadsheet! Pat - ----- Original Message ----- From: Katherine Malm To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Monday, December 10, 2001 6:23 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PECS & "Rubberband Sell Rule" Hi Chris, I agree with you on the vague nature of WON's sell rule and it's the reason that I was happy to have found these additional criteria. A stock could easily rise 70% above the 200dMA, but if the price behaves as you would expect, you'll see mostly accumulation days and the 200dMA will rise with the price. That would be a good stock in my book! I keep 3 kinds of records related to buying and selling. First, I have a buy and a sell checklist. All the appropriate items have to be checked before I'll buy. When a sell rule is hit, out it goes. (The rubberband rule, along with a couple of others are what I call "warning" sell rules. I do not sell unconditionally on this trigger alone.) Second, I make a notation in my trading journal that will state my general reason for buying/selling along with other general observations about what is going on that might have affected the decision. What I'm trying to do is keep a record of my "mental state" when buying/selling. (The journal itself contains more than buy/sell info.) Third, a printout of the chart on the buy and sell date. Here I'll highlight all the appropriate technicals, making note of industry RS and other things that don't show on the DGO chart. The buy and sell charts get stapled together and put into a trading journal. All of these things allow me to go back on a regular basis and find weaknesses. It is through these kinds of reviews that I am able to enhance a strategy, find errors or identify my hot buttons. Believe me, there's plenty of those to contend with! Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: Chris Dempsey To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Sunday, December 09, 2001 11:49 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PECS & "Rubberband Sell Rule" Katherine, Thanks for the idea. Sell rule 34 has always bothered me. "Some stocks can be sold when they are 70 to 100% above their 200-day. This in many instances seemed to soon. This looks like it will help determine which stocks. Have you done any analysis of you trades to determine the accuracy of this formula. What records do you keep when you buy and sell a stock? Chris - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Friday, December 07, 2001 9:42 AM To: CANSLIM List Posting Subject: [CANSLIM] PECS Just so you guys don't blame this one on the "IBD curse"... Here's a good example of the "Rubberband Sell Rule" in action: PECS B/O on 11/14. Rubberband Sell Rule: If all three of these criteria are met, be prepared to sell, as the price can fall 15-25%: (1) >125% above the recent base low AND (2) >70% above the 200 day MA AND (3) >25% above the 50 day MA. For PECS intraday 12/5/01 when P was $40.12: (1) recent base low $12.50, +221% (2) 200dMA $19.23, +108% (3) 50dMA $24.51, +64%. Based on that, on 12/5 price, your choices were: (1) Sell all or portion of position (2) Intend to buy back as it returns to intermediate term trend (3) Move on to another position 12/6 was a distribution day, the first in its advance. This morning an analyst downgraded to hold based on valuation, stock gapped down on open. So, depending on your choice, the next rule to kick in is the WON rule for stocks moving up >=20% within 8 weeks after breakout: If a stock does this, hold on through the first correction. If you make this choice, you then just have to watch that the IT trend is not violated as it makes its correction. If other sell rules kick in, out it goes. Katherine - ------=_NextPart_000_0012_01C1834F.5F0E1CE0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

 

Thanks Katherine for the = clarification.

 

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Tuesday, December = 11, 2001 8:51 PM
To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]"Rubberband Sell Rule"

 

Hi John,

 <= /p>

The original discussion of this came up on the AZO thread, then again on = "PECS & the Rubberband sell rule" if you want to get more of the = discussion.<= /p>

 <= /p>

But the criteria for the rule is:<= /p>

 <= /p>

If = all three of these criteria are met, be prepared to sell, as the price
can fall 15-25%:
(1) >125% above the recent base low AND
(2) >70% above the 200 day MA AND
(3) >25% above the 50 day MA.<= /p>

 <= /p>

This is an enhancement to WON's "may want to sell if the stock is 70%+ = above the 200 day MA." It's really just about quantifying the degree of = extension from its base and moving averages and the likelihood that short term = players will be taking profits.

 <= /p>

Hope that helps!

 <= /p>

Katherine= <= /p>

 <= /p>

----- Original Message -----

=

To: canslim@lists.xmission.com

Sent: Tuesday, = December 11, 2001 8:58 PM

Subject: RE: [CANSLIM]"Rubberband Sell Rule"

 <= /p>

Hi = Katherine.

I entered your ss in = my ss and I have trouble understanding what your conclusion is saying in the = cell

 =3DIF(F4>0,IF(AND(H4>1.25,I4>0.25,J4>0.7),&= quot;***Sell triggered = ","OK"),"n/a")

If current = price>0, if base low >125%and 50 day mov> .25and 200 day mov >.7 it looks = like you are requiring all these conditions for a sell = signal.

Do I have it right = if not please tell me in English( what this is = saying)

-----Original Message-----
From: = owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Tuesday, December = 11, 2001 6:53 PM
To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]"Rubberband Sell Rule"<= /p>

 <= /p>

Hi Pat,

 <= /p>

As of now, I manually enter the base low (because that's a = read off the charts--I use the DGO marker) and the MA's. My software = automatically calculates the MA's, but does not allow me to export them as values. = Even the new DGO beta doesn't allow that, though you can screen on % above/below = the MA's. (aaargh) The Price I export from my software along with other = information each day, so it's no problem. I know there's software/charting packages that = would export the MA's but unfortunately, I don't own any of them! I'm only = worried about calculating something like this on my holdings or on potential = shorts, so the list isn't all that big. Before I set up these calcs in my watch spreadsheet, I used to do the calculations by hand. Now *that's* crazy, = isn't it!<= /p>

 <= /p>

My pleasure to share the spreadsheet,<= /p>

 <= /p>

Katherine

----- Original Message -----

From: Pat =
<= /p>

 

To: canslim@lists.xmission.com

Sent: Tuesday, = December 11, 2001 7:45 PM

Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]"Rubberband Sell Rule"

 <= /p>

Katherine,<= /p>

Do you manually enter the data for each stock?<= /p>

Or is there a free source that will provide the necessary = <= /p>

data that one could copy & paste easily into the <= /p>

Robberband Spreadsheet?

 <= /p>

Thanks for sharing the spreadsheet!<= /p>

Pat<= /p>

----- Original Message -----

<= /p>

 

To: canslim@lists.xmission.com

Sent: Monday, = December 10, 2001 6:23 AM

Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PECS & "Rubberband Sell Rule"

 <= /p>

Hi Chris,

 <= /p>

I agree with you on the vague nature of WON's sell rule and it's the reason that = I was happy to have found these additional criteria. A stock could easily rise = 70% above the 200dMA, but if the price behaves as you would expect, you'll = see mostly accumulation days and the 200dMA will rise with the price. That = would be a good stock in my book!

 <= /p>

I keep 3 kinds of records related to buying and selling. First, I have a buy and = a sell checklist. All the appropriate items have to be checked before I'll buy. = When a sell rule is hit, out it goes. (The rubberband rule, along with a couple = of others are what I call "warning" sell rules. I do not sell unconditionally on this trigger alone.) Second, I make a notation in my = trading journal that will state my general reason for buying/selling along with = other general observations about what is going on that might have affected the decision. What I'm trying to do is keep a record of my "mental = state" when buying/selling. (The journal itself contains more than = buy/sell info.) Third, a printout of the chart on the buy and sell date. = Here I'll highlight all the appropriate technicals, making note of industry RS and = other things that don't show on the DGO chart. The buy and sell charts = get stapled together and put into a trading journal. All of these things = allow me to go back on a regular basis and find weaknesses. It is through these = kinds of reviews that I am able to enhance a strategy, find errors or = identify my hot buttons. Believe me, there's plenty of those to contend with! = <= /p>

 <= /p>

Katherine= <= /p>

----- Original Message -----

From: Chris Dempsey =
<= /p>

 

To: canslim@lists.xmission.com

Sent: Sunday, = December 09, 2001 11:49 PM

Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PECS & "Rubberband Sell Rule"

 <= /p>

Katherine,= <= /p>

 <= /p>

Thanks for the idea. Sell rule 34 has always bothered me. "Some stocks can = be sold when they are 70 to 100% above their 200-day. This in many = instances seemed to soon. This looks like it will help determine which stocks. = Have you done any analysis of you trades to determine the accuracy of this = formula.<= /p>

 <= /p>

What records do you keep when you buy and sell a stock?<= /p>

 <= /p>

Chris<= /p>

-----Original Message-----
From: = owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Friday, December = 07, 2001 9:42 AM
To: CANSLIM List = Posting
Subject: [CANSLIM] = PECS<= /p>

Just so you guys don't blame this one on the "IBD = curse"...<= /p>

 <= /p>

Here's a good example of the "Rubberband Sell Rule" in = action:<= /p>

 <= /p>

PECS B/O on 11/14.

 <= /p>

Rubberband Sell Rule:

If = all three of these criteria are met, be prepared to sell, as the price
can fall 15-25%:
(1) >125% above the recent base low AND
(2) >70% above the 200 day MA AND
(3) >25% above the 50 day MA.<= /p>

For PECS intraday 12/5/01 when P was $40.12:<= /p>

(1) recent base low $12.50, +221%<= /p>

(2) 200dMA $19.23, +108%

(3) 50dMA $24.51, +64%.

 <= /p>

Based on that, on 12/5 price, your choices were:

(1) Sell all or portion of position

(2) Intend to buy back as it returns to intermediate term = trend

(3) Move on to another position

 <= /p>

12/6 was a distribution day, the first in its advance.<= /p>

 <= /p>

This morning an analyst downgraded to hold based on valuation, stock gapped = down on open.

 <= /p>

So, depending on your choice, the next rule to kick in is the WON rule for = stocks moving up >=3D20% within 8 weeks after breakout:<= /p>

 <= /p>

If a stock does this, hold on through the first = correction.<= /p>

 <= /p>

If you make this choice, you then just have to watch that the IT trend is not = violated as it makes its correction.<= /p>

 <= /p>

If other sell rules kick in, out it goes.<= /p>

 <= /p>

Katherine= <= /p>

- ------=_NextPart_000_0012_01C1834F.5F0E1CE0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1941 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.