From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #1969 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, December 19 2001 Volume 02 : Number 1969 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL Re:Float Analysis-BREL/INVN (was: [CANSLIM] Devil's Advocate: Why bother with fundamentals?) Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY RE: [CANSLIM] INTV (was ALLY) [CANSLIM] DFXI RE: [CANSLIM] ALLY Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY - Server glich??? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 19 Dec 2001 10:25:58 -0800 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL Jan, Looks like the "rubber band" theory is holding true. BREL has pulled back severely since its recent "breakout". On a side note: a few days back ALLY was brought up as a breakout also. While it hasn't pulled back a lot - it looks suspect at this point. - -Bill - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Sunday, December 16, 2001 5:26 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL > Katherine & Bill: > > Just want to point your attention to IBD's Investor's Profile 12/17 that > may be appropos. It talks about IGT in April of 2000 and how it sprang on > several high days to form a high right lip. According to the article: > "...But it came from too deep in the base to form a sound breakout. IGT than > ran up a few more days.... But the stock hadn't shaken out the last few weak > holders." It then goes on to say that it is acceptable if there is one high > volume shakeout day-so long as the rest of the handle is acceptable. > > BREL, to me, looks like another IGT in the making. > > jans > > > > n a message dated 12/14/2001 3:30:58 PM Eastern Standard Time, > btriffet@earthlink.net writes: > > << Katherine, > > Thanks for the info. My internet was down so I couldn't check it out. > I would be skeptical of the post 9/11 news makers. I recall a quick > non-canslim trade I did with SURE a few weeks back (which I pocketed a nice > gain). They make the irradiation machines for food and are slated to be put > in some post offices (kills anthrax). Also, TTN being the parent company > shot up as well. Now with the anthrax story no longer on page one I see them > stalling. I would expect the same for other "emotional" news makers. In > addition, I didn't look close but I think BREL is a rubberband candidate. >> > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 19 Dec 2001 12:24:16 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re:Float Analysis-BREL/INVN (was: [CANSLIM] Devil's Advocate: Why bother with fundamentals?) Eric, This is very enlightening. BREL is a very good case study for many reasons. In my own work, I look for minimum forward growth rates to qualify something for due diligence. It must also meet minimum price and ADV, however. So, even though something like BREL has the growth rate, until 10/18, it did not have the ADV. (I use >=90000, Price>=$10) What is quite interesting is that I can look back and compare the daily volume to the ADV as it was building up to its original break out of the snooze zone on 10/2. That means that your float analysis would have identified this before it showed up in my basic criteria scans. I'll have to see if there's a way to do this from within my own software without resorting to other indicators. From a fundamental point of view, when these things crop up after a major breakout like BREL, they will catch my attention in a hurry. I started DD on BREL shortly after 10/18. There were some fundamental issues that raised red flags, but I put it in the "interesting enough to watch category." In other words, there were enough positives in the way it supported greater macrothemes to continue the DD and the technical watch. I would think the new smallpox contract from the gov't drew more eyes to the stock, so I am not surprised that it behaved the way it did from 10/26 to today. A pure technician wouldn't have cared either way and would have played the rise on the right side of the cup. I think that as a CANSLIM play, these kinds of things are better played after the smoke clears. Patience? Risk control? Again, a personal matter. In a more general way, your float analysis gives better interpretation to the short term technical action and I find that extremely useful. Thank you. Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tangen, Eric" To: Sent: Wednesday, December 19, 2001 11:24 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Devil's Advocate: Why bother with fundamentals? > Both BREL and INVN have gone from 200+ days for the float to turnover to > less than 20 in a very, very short period of time. INVN is probably less > than 5 right now...so an entry you won't get stopped out at might be a 6 day > low or a 6 day close...just something to think about. > > For INVN, the delta in float turnover occured immediately on the day the > market opened after the attack. > > For BREL, this occurred from 10/8-10/12. > > float turnover = sum up volume from today back. Stop when that sum equals > the float. Record the number of days it took for this sum to equal the float > as the float turnover for today. > > (Let's wait and see if any of this shows up in Investor Corner.) > > Eric Tangen > > > > > > Just look at INVN recently. Did it make sense that it went parabolic? I > don't think so. Did it continue to go up in price *despite* the fact that > early in that parabolic rise we thought the probability that it could > continue the move for another week was very low? Did it make sense for BREL > to break out of that 7 week > C&H a few days ago? > > Katherine > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: 12 Dec 2001 07:01:04 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY I was talking about CACI. At 09:33 AM 12/12/2001 -0500, you wrote: >what do you see as the connection between gaming stocks, and war? Relief >factor? > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >AIM: TexWorley >>----- Original Message ----- >>From: Tim Fisher >>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >>Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2001 9:28 AM >>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY >> >>Maybe, but as long as there is the threat of more war I think it will do >>fine. It has not broken its trading pattern - each B/O is followed by an >>immediate drop into a higher base. I expected the same to happen this time >>and it has. Guess where my stop is ;) >> >>At 01:11 AM 12/12/2001 -0500, you wrote: >> >Tim, >> > >> >By end of day, CACI trading range (both hi and low) were below yesterday. >> >And even tho it closed up a little, volume was down, and well under ADV. >> > >> >Second thoughts at this point, in hindsight? Is it topping out short term? >> > >> >On INTV, serious damage on nearly 9X ADV, any reason? A serious "tail" in >> >Katherine's terms. I have noticed a number of other telecom stocks with >> >negative earnings forecasts for year 2002, surprising given the weak >> >earnings results in 2001. Is there something fundamental going on in the >> >industry with respect to the upcoming year? >> > >> >Tom Worley >> ><mailto:stkguru@netside.net>> netside.net>stkguru@netside.net >> >AIM: TexWorley >> >>----- Original Message ----- >> >>From: <mailto:Tim@orerockon.com>Tim Fisher >> >>To: >> <mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com >> >>Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 11:48 AM >> >>Subject: [CANSLIM] ALLY >> >> >> >>B/O this AM. Also CACI looking good altho this one is extended. Discl: I >> >>own both. INTV: toilet-bound. >> >> >> >>Tim Fisher >> >>Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >> >>Pacific Fishery Biologists Information >> >><mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com>mailto:tim@OreRockO >> n.com >> >>WWW <http://OreRockOn.com>http://OreRockOn.com >> >> >> >> >> >>- >> >>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email >> >>"<mailto:majordomo@xmission.com>> majordomo@xmission.com>majordomo@xmission.com" >> >>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >> >>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. >> > >> >Tim Fisher >> >Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >> >Pacific Fishery Biologists Information >> >mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com >> >WWW http://OreRockOn.com >> >> >>- >>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email >>"majordomo@xmission.com" >>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > >Tim Fisher >Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site >Pacific Fishery Biologists Information >mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 12 Dec 2001 07:17:39 -0800 From: John Maycock Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] INTV (was ALLY) This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - --Boundary_(ID_kzOR6gh7wi8+LlVlpJtTcw) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Hi Tom: In terms of the macro picture, the issue with the telecom industry is that analysts are expecting sequential year-over-year declines in capital expenditure from 2001 through to 2005 from the major carriers. This is North America specific, Asia will be better, Europe probably similar. In the face of reduced expenditures, in general, it will mean reduced revenues for the industry suppliers. This is like looking at a market index and saying that all stocks will decline because the index is dropping. We know that it is not true, but all stocks in the industry will have to face the falling tide and it will take time to sort out. Yesterday, JDSU announced that they were pushing their horizon for a recovery (defined as rising earnings) out to Q2 2002 from December, maybe that news had an effect. Were there any technical signs that this might happen to INTV? Is there anything an investor could have done? Regards John Ps. I am having email delays. My email is taking up to 2 days to get to its destination, so this was sent at 7:13am PST Wednesday. - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 10:12 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY Tim, By end of day, CACI trading range (both hi and low) were below yesterday. And even tho it closed up a little, volume was down, and well under ADV. Second thoughts at this point, in hindsight? Is it topping out short term? On INTV, serious damage on nearly 9X ADV, any reason? A serious "tail" in Katherine's terms. I have noticed a number of other telecom stocks with negative earnings forecasts for year 2002, surprising given the weak earnings results in 2001. Is there something fundamental going on in the industry with respect to the upcoming year? Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tim Fisher To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 11:48 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] ALLY B/O this AM. Also CACI looking good altho this one is extended. Discl: I own both. INTV: toilet-bound. Tim Fisher Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site Pacific Fishery Biologists Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email " majordomo@xmission.com " - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - --Boundary_(ID_kzOR6gh7wi8+LlVlpJtTcw) Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT

Hi Tom:

In terms of the macro picture, the issue with the telecom industry is that analysts are expecting sequential year-over-year declines in capital expenditure from 2001 through to 2005 from the major carriers. This is North America specific, Asia will be better, Europe probably similar. In the face of reduced expenditures, in general, it will mean reduced revenues for the industry suppliers. This is like looking at a market index and saying that all stocks will decline because the index is dropping. We know that it is not true, but all stocks in the industry will have to face the falling tide and it will take time to sort out.

 

Yesterday, JDSU announced that they were pushing their horizon for a recovery (defined as rising earnings) out to Q2 2002 from December, maybe that news had an effect. Were there any technical signs that this might happen to INTV? Is there anything an investor could have done?

 

Regards

John

 

Ps. I am having email delays. My email is taking up to 2 days to get to its destination, so this was sent at 7:13am PST Wednesday.

 

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 10:12 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY

 

Tim,

 

By end of day, CACI trading range (both hi and low) were below yesterday. And even tho it closed up a little, volume was down, and well under ADV.

 

Second thoughts at this point, in hindsight? Is it topping out short term?

 

On INTV, serious damage on nearly 9X ADV, any reason? A serious "tail" in Katherine's terms. I have noticed a number of other telecom stocks with negative earnings forecasts for year 2002, surprising given the weak earnings results in 2001. Is there something fundamental going on in the industry with respect to the upcoming year?

 

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley

----- Original Message -----

From: Tim Fisher

To: canslim@lists.xmission.com

Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 11:48 AM

Subject: [CANSLIM] ALLY

 

B/O this AM. Also CACI looking good altho this one is extended. Discl: I
own both. INTV: toilet-bound.

Tim Fisher
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
Pacific Fishery Biologists Information
mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com
WWW http://OreRockOn.com


- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.

- --Boundary_(ID_kzOR6gh7wi8+LlVlpJtTcw)-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 19 Dec 2001 20:32:54 +0100 From: Andreas Himmelreich Subject: [CANSLIM] DFXI Hi, can somebody help me on this on the technicall picture (do not want to be kicked out again ...)? Does somebody see the CWH? (Handle has no downtrend but a shakeout). Thank you Andreas - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 19 Dec 2001 14:43:44 -0500 From: "Dave" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ALLY > ASCA kind of breaking down Why do you say that? Looks like the uptrend is intact. Got ahead of itself just before the secondary (probably due to some manipulation) but since then it has recovered nicely and riding the trendline that began late Sept. Disclaimer: I own it. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 15 Dec 2001 06:17:54 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_02C3_01C18530.3B43AD60 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Tom, So I have already learned something new for the day and it's 6 am. I = think that merits going back to bed and watching movies all day. I pulled my technical notes, and you are absolutely right, the handle is = considered to be part of the base. My apologies to David of camelot = homes for my error yesterday. Another thing which I noticed about BREL after the discussion yesterday = is that it is a stock that was setting up for an "explosive breakout" = with ever decreasing volatility as specified by Larry Conners of = TradingMarkets.com. The track record on these things is very good. I believe it was Perry who first brought this stock up on the list in = early November. There was some discussion of what they did at the time. = In addition to the smallpox vaccine, they are what I call a "picks and = shovels" play to the biotech industry. As I see it, biotech is setting = up for a big move that could be very long lasting. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, December 15, 2001 4:54 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL Tim, After reading all the comments about this one, I must agree with you. = I believe it was Katherine that mentioned the handle does not get = counted as part of the "basing formation" but I do not recall that being = correct (at least I always counted since it is an essential part of a = c&h formation). One point no one seems to have mentioned is that this is a small cap = stock that was under $12 on 9/28, when it actually began its move. Up to = then, it was characterized by a lengthy flat line base, just the kind of = stock I look for. Can't believe I missed it, because the key was the Q2 = results, where they showed strong growth in earnings both y2y and = sequentially. Sales also showed good growth. Management owns 43% of the issue, leaving only 4.7 million shares in = the float. Of that, funds owned 18% as of the last report (presumably as = of 9/30) so their holdings may have increased substantially. While ADV = now is over 300K shares a day, before the end of Sept it was a sleepy = eyed stock, often trading less than a 1000 shares a day. BIG change in = less than 3 months, and not all due to the anthrax attacks, since growth = was already occurring before then. With the float turning over in just 16 days, you are usually going to = get a shortened "basing formation", so even if the handle is not to be = counted, the five weeks forming the cup is still valid in my book. Some = tolerance and deviation from the strict rules must be given due the = small float and rapid growth in daily volume. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tim Fisher=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 11:09 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL I see a short, flat handle starting Dec 5 forming at the old high of = 32.50, range of about 29-33. I do not see an upward slope in either the = closing price or the trading range in the handle. At 11:01 AM 12/14/2001 -0500, you wrote: >Doesn't the upward-sloping handle on BREL concern you? > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. Tim Fisher Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site Pacific Fishery Biologists Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_02C3_01C18530.3B43AD60 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Tom,
 
So I have already learned something new = for the day=20 and it's 6 am. I think that merits going back to bed and watching movies = all=20 day.
 
I pulled my technical notes, and you = are absolutely=20 right, the handle is considered to be part of the base. My apologies to = David of=20 camelot homes for my error yesterday.
 
Another thing which I noticed about = BREL after the=20 discussion yesterday is that it is a stock that was setting up for an = "explosive=20 breakout" with ever decreasing volatility as specified by Larry Conners = of=20 TradingMarkets.com. The track record on these things is very = good.
 
I believe it was Perry who first = brought this stock=20 up on the list in early November. There was some discussion of what they = did at=20 the time. In addition to the smallpox vaccine, they are what I call a = "picks and=20 shovels" play to the biotech industry. As I see it, biotech is setting = up for a=20 big move that could be very long lasting.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom = Worley=20
Sent: Saturday, December 15, = 2001 4:54=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: = BREL

Tim,
 
After reading all the comments about this one, I = must agree=20 with you.  I believe it was Katherine that mentioned the handle = does not=20 get counted as part of the "basing formation" but I do not recall that = being=20 correct (at least I always counted since it is an essential part of a = c&h=20 formation).
 
One point no one seems to have mentioned is that = this is a=20 small cap stock that was under $12 on 9/28, when it actually began its = move.=20 Up to then, it was characterized by a lengthy flat line base, just the = kind of=20 stock I look for. Can't believe I missed it, because the key was the = Q2=20 results, where they showed strong growth in earnings both y2y and=20 sequentially. Sales also showed good growth.
 
Management owns 43% of the issue, leaving only 4.7 = million=20 shares in the float. Of that, funds owned 18% as of the last report=20 (presumably as of 9/30) so their holdings may have increased = substantially.=20 While ADV now is over 300K shares a day, before the end of Sept it was = a=20 sleepy eyed stock, often trading less than a 1000 shares a day. BIG = change in=20 less than 3 months, and not all due to the anthrax attacks, since = growth was=20 already occurring before then.
 
With the float turning over in just 16 days, you = are usually=20 going to get a shortened "basing formation", so even if the handle is = not to=20 be counted, the five weeks forming the cup is still valid in my book. = Some=20 tolerance and deviation from the strict rules must be given due the = small=20 float and rapid growth in daily volume.
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tim = Fisher=20
Sent: Friday, December 14, = 2001 11:09=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: = BREL

I see a short, flat handle starting Dec 5 forming at = the old=20 high of 32.50,
range of about 29-33. I do not see an upward slope = in=20 either the closing
price or the trading range in the = handle.

At=20 11:01 AM 12/14/2001 -0500, you wrote:
>Doesn't the = upward-sloping=20 handle on BREL concern you?
>
>-
>-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
>= ;-In=20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
>-"unsubscribe=20 canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.

Tim=20 Fisher
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
Pacific Fishery = Biologists=20 Information
mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com
WWW http://OreRockOn.com

-
-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your = email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_02C3_01C18530.3B43AD60-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 19 Dec 2001 12:01:54 -0800 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY - Server glich??? Is the canslim server gone haywire? Getting some odd reposts/dates. This one is from Dec. 12... But, it is interesting to comment on these now though on the 19th. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Andreas Himmelreich" To: Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2001 7:00 AM Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] ALLY > The Price Trend of the industry is up > The RS Trend of the industry is up > > All Stocks of the industry yesterday: -0.36% down > All Canslim of the industry yesterday: 0.49% up > > ISWI is breaking down Still down > GTK kind of breaking down Came back up > ASCA kind of breaking down Came back > MNTG kind of holding Took off > MGAM very strong updtrend Leveled out. > AZR uptrend Very low volume breakout today > AGY still uptrend Still up > SLOT still uptrend Resistance at the right side of a sharp V cup. > ALLY uptrend (with BO yesterday) Leveled off from a very late breakout (rubber band?). - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #1969 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.