From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2032 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Sunday, January 13 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2032 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Opinions on KKD? [CANSLIM] CHBS ??? Re: [CANSLIM] CHBS ??? [CANSLIM] market direction Re: [CANSLIM] market direction Re: [CANSLIM] market direction AW: [CANSLIM] market direction Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview Re: [CANSLIM] market direction Re: AW: [CANSLIM] market direction ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 06:46:36 -0700 From: "rolf hertenstein" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Opinions on KKD? For my edification, could you tell me the period in which you see the 3 bases? Depending on whether I look at 6 month, 1 year, or 2 year charts, I see a variety of what I might call a base, some sloppy, some not. Thanks! Rolf > Tom, John et al: > > Concerning KKD: To me it looks like it's in its 3rd stage base-whether > it will reach the fouth...? Tom's remarks concerning it "valuations" makes > me wonder whether it is strong enough to enter a fourth (and then a fifth > [which wouldn't hurt after looking at all these bases]). In any event, > Friday's Investors Corner published an article that may be worth considering: > > Investor's Corner, Friday, January 11, 2002, Count A Stock's Bases Before You > Buy BY JONAH KERI > > Want to avoid buying a stock at its peak? Try counting bases. > A stock entering a third-, fourth- or fifth-stage base faces very high risks > of breakdown. And after a huge run-up, the trip down can prove long and > painful. > Yet many investors fail to spot late-stage bases. One reason: They envision a > new base forming only after a stock has doubled or tripled from its last > consolidation. > Here's an eye-opener: A stock need rise only 25% or more from its pivot to > trigger a new-stage base above it. As long as the new base doesn't undercut > the lows of the prior consolidation, add another checkmark to your list of > bases. > Few stocks ever get to form late-stage bases. Only the best can break out of > well-formed bases again and again, stacking gains on top of gains. > Giants of the past like Cisco Systems (CSCO ) wielded enough sales and > earnings clout to make massive gains. Yet even elite stocks can turn tail > eventually. > Be wary of a stock, generally one known for slower growth, that suddenly > starts building a third- or fourth-stage base. After investors have long > ignored a sector, it may suddenly find new strength, even in a bad market. > But once the parade of money switches course again, such a stock can take a > deep fall, which in effect resets its base count. > > jans > > > > In a message dated 1/12/2002 12:22:49 AM Eastern Standard Time, > stkguru@netside.net writes: > > << Wouldn't make my criteria as a LLUR due to its extreme volatility. If I > had the time to sit in front of a monitor for some weeks, might be tempted to > try trading it short term, tho. > > As I have mentioned before, I have a problem with its valuation, even tho I > love their glazed donuts hot off the rack. They need 13 cents to just meet > the full year forecast, looks possible but much less likely they can > surprise. And must average better than 15 cents each qtr next year again to > just meet forecasts. Strong growth, well executed business plan for > aggressive growth, but I keep coming back to valuations. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > AIM: TexWorley > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Katherine Malm > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Friday, January 11, 2002 9:57 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Opinions on KKD? > > > Hi John, > > Mixed bag. Terribly high PE as Andreas pointed out yesterday. But printing > higher highs and higher lows. An LLUR candidate in the making? or a head & > shoulders top starting to form? Can't tell...but I wouldn't touch it unless > it were clearer. If in since 11/14 B/O, nothing's violated that except a > brief dip below the pivot shortly after. > > Katherine > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA] > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Friday, January 11, 2002 8:48 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Opinions on KKD? > > > Others have asked about this one recently, but there hasn't been much > discussion. > > Anyone have opinions on KKD's chart and it's legitimacy as a CANSLIM > breakout candidate? > > Thanks, > John C. >> > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 06:09:24 -0800 (PST) From: kavi kumar Subject: [CANSLIM] CHBS ??? Hi everybody, i am new member here, i have learnt (practiced a little bit too) for couple of years, BTW i am just beginner in investing. But i have spent enought time reading about CANSLIM methodology. This forums seems to be very interesting one. Thank you very much for the contributors of the forum. Any thoughts on chbs, It seems to have formed a nice cup and handle. It has good fundamentals too. Kavi. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send FREE video emails in Yahoo! Mail! http://promo.yahoo.com/videomail/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 09:34:28 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CHBS ??? Hi Kavi, and welcome to the group. Many members here (lurkers and contributors) are new to either or both of investing or CANSLIM, so feel at home. I note that earnings and sales growth are both consistent and strong, as are the forecasts for both current year ending next month, and the following year. Industry group also an "A". Chartwise, appears to me that the breakout on 12/21 has failed, and the stock is declining to support around the sub $30 level, if it can hold there. I personally don't buy this industry groups, as I cannot keep up with fashion trends. And that makes such a big difference in the various Retail/Apparel groups (witness GPS as just one example). CANSLIM elements right now appear very strong, future of the group or this stock less certain in my mind. But with the apparent failed b/o, I would be inclined to avoid it. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: "kavi kumar" To: Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 9:09 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] CHBS ??? > Hi everybody, > > i am new member here, i have learnt (practiced a > little bit too) for couple of years, BTW i am just > beginner in investing. But i have spent enought > time reading about CANSLIM methodology. This > forums seems to be very interesting one. Thank > you very much for the contributors of the forum. > > Any thoughts on chbs, It seems to have formed > a nice cup and handle. It has good fundamentals too. > > Kavi. > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Send FREE video emails in Yahoo! Mail! > http://promo.yahoo.com/videomail/ > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 07:11:24 -0800 (PST) From: Kent Norman Subject: [CANSLIM] market direction Many "experts" are expecting the market to follow tradition and rise in January and go flat to down for a few months. Do you think this weeks 5 down days are meaningful? I know WON says we don't need to be concerned with where the market is heading, just where it is. So where is it? Is the party over? Should we all get out of the pool? Kent Norman ===== Opportunities always look bigger going than coming. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send FREE video emails in Yahoo! Mail! http://promo.yahoo.com/videomail/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 11:31:43 -0500 From: "Dan Forant" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] market direction I have been saying all along this is going to be a sloooooooowwwww, recovery. Well into the year. All we have to do is *read* the news. I listen to a local analyst here named Larry King, he's with Smith Barney. A few weeks ago he was calling for a quick market return. Just Friday he changed course and now calls for growth but very slow. Analysts jobs from brokerage houses are to soften the tone of bad news. They can even make it sound good. Sure there are stocks out there that the savvy trader may pick, but on average not. It takes months to years for rate and tax cuts to filter into the economy. DanF - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Kent Norman" To: "CANSLIM" Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 10:11 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] market direction > Many "experts" are expecting the market to follow > tradition and rise in January and go flat to down for > a few months. Do you think this weeks 5 down days are > meaningful? > > I know WON says we don't need to be concerned with > where the market is heading, just where it is. > > So where is it? Is the party over? Should we all get > out of the pool? > > Kent Norman > > > ===== > Opportunities always look bigger going than coming. > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Send FREE video emails in Yahoo! Mail! > http://promo.yahoo.com/videomail/ > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 09:54:25 -0700 From: "rolf hertenstein" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] market direction I'm still concerned about the overall market valuation, which remains high. Yes, as earnings improve, market P/Es should lower, assuming prices don't accelerate faster than earnings improve. Even though WON gives little credence to P/Es, I'm adding a P (CANSLIMP ?) for the time being. I think many investors will be spooked by high P/Es (e.g., KKD) and tend towards solid companies with relatively low P/Es. Just one new investor's opinion. Rolf - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Dan Forant" To: Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 9:31 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] market direction > I have been saying all along this is going to be a sloooooooowwwww, > recovery. Well into the year. All we have to do is *read* the news. I listen > to a local analyst here named Larry King, he's with Smith Barney. A few > weeks ago he was calling for a quick market return. Just Friday he changed > course and now calls for growth but very slow. Analysts jobs from brokerage > houses are to soften the tone of bad news. They can even make it sound good. > Sure there are stocks out there that the savvy trader may pick, but on > average not. It takes months to years for rate and tax cuts to filter into > the economy. > > DanF > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Kent Norman" > To: "CANSLIM" > Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 10:11 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] market direction > > > > Many "experts" are expecting the market to follow > > tradition and rise in January and go flat to down for > > a few months. Do you think this weeks 5 down days are > > meaningful? > > > > I know WON says we don't need to be concerned with > > where the market is heading, just where it is. > > > > So where is it? Is the party over? Should we all get > > out of the pool? > > > > Kent Norman > > > > > > ===== > > Opportunities always look bigger going than coming. > > > > __________________________________________________ > > Do You Yahoo!? > > Send FREE video emails in Yahoo! Mail! > > http://promo.yahoo.com/videomail/ > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 18:02:53 +0100 From: Andreas Himmelreich Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] market direction Only 1 Diss Day this week, rest of the retrace was on lower vol, so nothing to worry about. Nevertheless a lot of BOs failed or had severe retraces on Friday (GISX DYII). I was able to make good money this week, right now for me the market is in a neutral mood. It is a stock picker market, smal to mid cap value and growth (at the same time) like in Stocks like DFXI, TTIL etc. are in good shape. Nevertheless: The roaring bull market of the 90s will not come back ... As soon this happens (first week of Jan), the market reacts very fast to the downside (like this week). > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > Von: Kent Norman [SMTP:kent_norman@yahoo.com] > Gesendet am: Sunday, January 13, 2002 4:11 PM > An: CANSLIM > Betreff: [CANSLIM] market direction > > Many "experts" are expecting the market to follow > tradition and rise in January and go flat to down for > a few months. Do you think this weeks 5 down days are > meaningful? > > I know WON says we don't need to be concerned with > where the market is heading, just where it is. > > So where is it? Is the party over? Should we all get > out of the pool? > > Kent Norman > > > ===== > Opportunities always look bigger going than coming. > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Send FREE video emails in Yahoo! Mail! > http://promo.yahoo.com/videomail/ > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 12:12:16 -0500 From: "Steve" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_000E_01C19C2B.8ACC82F0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Tom, Thanks again for your summary and attached watch list once again you = have added to my watch list. I have two questions regarding your WWW. 1. What is(are) the criteria(s) that you filter on to get your original = list prior to paring it down to the below? I have a small handful of = filters that I thought were pretty good but only half of your list below = even shows up on my original master list (about 300 long for weekend = review).=20 2. You have often mentioned about your own personal investing style is = in addition to CANSLIM (this group) and you select low priced/low = vol/small caps. Are you involved in other groups similiar to this group = for your other style of investing? I would also be interested in what = filter criteria you use to find those. (I have been using PEG ratios of = < .65, avol<50K but then I miss out on those without earnings...) Thanks for any coaching you can provide! Steve ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 1:50 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview CONFESSION SEASON We are now in a critical time period preceding the actual reporting of = Fourth Quarter results. Corporations big and small are supposed to be = adjusting investor's expectations to what they will actually report, vs. = what they (or analysts) have already said to expect. My subjective = observation was that the news was far more positive than negative, with = over half of the companies saying anything saying that they would exceed = lowered expectations. And most of the rest were saying they would meet = the current expectations. Just read a report off Reuters, which confirms = my observation. So far in preparation for Q4, 44% of the announcements = have warned they will miss forecasts. The positive spin? For Q3, the = number was 63%, for Q2 it was 68%, and 70% for Q1. And 25% of this = confession season are positive, compared to only 16% average for the = prior 3 quarters. According to First Call, earnings for the 500 corps in = the S&P500 are still expected to drop 22%, worst record in ten years.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- ONE LINERS A 17 year old in San Diego, still living at home with his parents, = managed to scam 1,000 "investors" out of over a million dollars over the = internet by promising returns of 250% to 2500% using the "investor's" = money to bet on sports events. Lots of quotes here, "a fool and his = money are soon parted", "there's a sucker born every minute", "greed = will get you in the end". Just think, he may be CEO of some future = Enron by the time he's 30!! Nearly $900,000 was recovered from his = account in Costa Rica, so doubtful the "investors" will learn much of a = lesson. Still, nice to know we are raising computer literate kids who = are obviously smarter than the adults. Bankruptcy filings are on track to set new records for 2001. Final = numbers announced in early March. Consumer debt way surpassed = expectations in November, up over $16 billion, expected was just over a = $5 billion jump. Primary cause was purchases of cars due the zero = financing deals now largely ended. The new President and COO of Int'l House of Pancakes is Ms. Julia = Stewart. She got her start in the restaurant biz 30 years ago at the age = of 16, filling coffee cups and taking orders as a waitress at, you = guessed it, IHOP. Way to go, Julia. Congrats!!=20 First quarter 2002 has been picked in a poll of private economists as = marking the end of recession. 37% picked March, 26% picked February, 22% = picked January, and a bold 7% picked last December. They projected a = rise in GDP of 0.7%. Consensus forecast for 4th quarter GDP is a 1% = decline, which would confirm a recession by traditional standards. New unemployment claims continued to drop faster than expectations. = Four week moving average is stable, and the number continuing on = unemployment dropped by 170,000. And this is despite new layoff = announcements (or expectations) by Ford (10,000), GM (5,000), and = Merrill Lynch (9,000). Wholesale inventories continued to fall in November, down 1.1% after = dropping 1.2% in October. (gotta deplete inventory before manufacturers = restart or increase production, and start hiring new people) Latest reports show applications for mortgages for home purchases are = at an all time high, implying strength for the new and used home sales = figures in the next few months. Friday's PPI report showed an unexpected drop of 0.7%, expected was a = drop of 0.2%. Excluding the volatile energy and food elements, it still = dropped 0.1% compared to an expected rise in the core rate of 0.1%. Gee, = maybe there's still some hope for a Jan 30 Fed rate cut? And despite 11 = Fed rate cuts in the past year, the 15 year mortgage rate is still only = 5 basis points below where it was a year ago. So who's making all the = money on refinancing and new mortgages? - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- MR. GREENSPAN I haven't written much about Mr. G for some time, mostly because I saw = little on which to comment, it was business as usual, with no change. I = didn't catch much of his speech Friday on the economy, but what I got = was significant. First, he expects to see proof of an economic recovery = by summer (that means it would have to already be in progress). Second, = he specifically commented: "hypothesis of an accelerated productivity = trend had not been tested in the contracting phase of a business cycle. = Recent developments have provided that test, and the early returns = certainly look favorable to the hypothesis." That comment, along with = several others, leads me to conclude that the Feds will cut another 25 = basis points on Jan 30. It will likely be the last cut, but I would also = not expect to see any rate hikes until the end of the summer at the = earliest. I also expect that when rate hikes occur, and they will, they = will be small, occur slowly and cautiously until not only our economic = growth is well established, but we also see improvement in the world = economy.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- ON "M" I am probably the wrong person to talk about the market trend this = week, as every major index was down. Despite that, my IRA gained 4.5% = for the week and my VR Fund gained 2.8%, so for me the trend is up. Not = withstanding that, the worries that the major indexes were developing a = head and shoulders pattern appear to have been unfounded, with the = possible exception of the NASDAQ 100. The ten day moving averages on = both up/down volume and new highs/lows are positive, and expectations of = an improving economy, and recovering corporate profits, are strong. Thus = I expect a lot more sidelined money to continue flowing into stocks = during the next month or two.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABEES While the population of stocks I review for my own personal investing = (low priced, thinly traded small caps) has been growing nicely, the = population of stocks I review for this column appears to be stagnant, = not a surprise given the retreat by all markets this week. As always, Bx is my shorthand for a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks = duration. If I see a specific pattern, such as a cup and handle, double = bottom, LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right, not officially CANSLIM pattern), = etc, then I will say so. ACS - LLUR, closely following the 50 DMA ALLY - B2 BBY - 5 week handle on the cup, but volume still high, funds already = own 37% BLUD - B2+ CEFT - 3+ week handle on a vague cup CVBF - LLUR DLX - very smooth LLUR despite low earnings forecasts ELTE - B3 FCN - volatile LLUR attempting a b/o on Friday on volume, be careful FMAR - c&h, low price and volume JNC - LLUR MCRS - 2nd base on the handle MHO - B5 OFIX - B4 PETM - LLUR POSS - B2 below the high, in my VR fund RYAN - LLUR TIER - B4 URBN - B3 Happy hunting, God bless America, and its military people, Use of this email for any purpose other than personal is prohibited = without prior permission of the author. Commercial use without = permission is specifically prohibited. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_000_000E_01C19C2B.8ACC82F0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Tom,
 
Thanks again for your summary and = attached watch=20 list once again you have added to my watch list.  I have two = questions=20 regarding your WWW.
 
1. What is(are) the criteria(s) that = you filter on=20 to get your original list prior to paring it down to the below?  I = have a=20 small handful of filters that I thought were pretty good but only half = of your=20 list below even shows up on my original master list (about 300 long for = weekend=20 review).
 
2. You have often mentioned about your = own personal=20 investing style is in addition to CANSLIM (this group) and = you select low=20 priced/low vol/small caps.  Are you involved in other groups = similiar to=20 this group for your other style of investing?  I would also be = interested=20 in what filter criteria you use to find those.  (I have been using = PEG=20 ratios of < .65, avol<50K but then I miss out on those without=20 earnings...)
 
Thanks for any coaching you can=20 provide!
 
Steve
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Tom = Worley=20
Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 = 1:50=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's = Weekend=20 Weeview

CONFESSION=20 SEASON
We are now in a critical time period preceding = the=20 actual reporting of Fourth Quarter results. Corporations big and small = are=20 supposed to be adjusting investor's expectations to what they will = actually=20 report, vs. what they (or analysts) have already said to expect. My = subjective=20 observation was that the news was far more positive than negative, = with over=20 half of the companies saying anything saying that they would exceed = lowered=20 expectations. And most of the rest were saying they would meet the = current=20 expectations. Just read a report off Reuters, which confirms my = observation.=20 So far in preparation for Q4, 44% of the announcements have warned = they will=20 miss forecasts. The positive spin? For Q3, the number was 63%, for Q2 = it was=20 68%, and 70% for Q1. And 25% of this confession season are positive, = compared=20 to only 16% average for the prior 3 quarters. According to First Call, = earnings for the 500 corps in the S&P500 are still expected to = drop 22%,=20 worst record in ten years.=20
ONE = LINERS
A 17 year old in San Diego, still living at = home with=20 his parents, managed to scam 1,000 "investors" out of over a million = dollars=20 over the internet by promising returns of 250% to 2500% using the = "investor's"=20 money to bet on sports events. Lots of quotes here, "a fool and his = money are=20 soon parted", "there's a sucker born every minute", "greed will get = you in the=20 end".  Just think, he may be CEO of some future Enron by the time = he's=20 30!! Nearly $900,000 was recovered from his account in Costa Rica, so = doubtful=20 the "investors" will learn much of a lesson. Still, nice to know we = are=20 raising computer literate kids who are obviously smarter than the=20 adults.
 
Bankruptcy filings are on track to set new = records for=20 2001. Final numbers announced in early March. Consumer debt way = surpassed=20 expectations in November, up over $16 billion, expected was just over = a $5=20 billion jump. Primary cause was purchases of cars due the zero = financing deals=20 now largely ended.
 
The new President and COO of Int'l House of = Pancakes is=20 Ms. Julia Stewart. She got her start in the restaurant biz 30 years = ago at the=20 age of 16, filling coffee cups and taking orders as a waitress at, you = guessed=20 it, IHOP. Way to go, Julia. Congrats!!
 
First quarter 2002 has been picked in a poll = of private=20 economists as marking the end of recession. 37% picked March, 26% = picked=20 February, 22% picked January, and a bold 7% picked last December. They = projected a rise in GDP of 0.7%. Consensus forecast for 4th quarter = GDP is a=20 1% decline, which would confirm a recession by traditional=20 standards.
 
New unemployment claims continued to drop = faster than=20 expectations. Four week moving average is stable, and the number = continuing on=20 unemployment dropped by 170,000. And this is despite new layoff = announcements=20 (or expectations) by Ford (10,000), GM (5,000), and Merrill Lynch=20 (9,000).
 
Wholesale inventories continued to fall in = November,=20 down 1.1% after dropping 1.2% in October. (gotta deplete inventory = before=20 manufacturers restart or increase production, and start hiring new=20 people)
 
Latest reports show applications for mortgages = for home=20 purchases are at an all time high, implying strength for the new and = used home=20 sales figures in the next few months.
 
Friday's PPI report showed an unexpected drop = of 0.7%,=20 expected was a drop of 0.2%. Excluding the volatile energy and food = elements,=20 it still dropped 0.1% compared to an expected rise in the core rate of = 0.1%.=20 Gee, maybe there's still some hope for a Jan 30 Fed rate = cut?  And=20 despite 11 Fed rate cuts in the past year, the 15 year mortgage rate = is still=20 only 5 basis points below where it was a year ago. So who's making all = the=20 money on refinancing and new mortgages?
MR.=20 GREENSPAN
I haven't written much about Mr. G for some = time, mostly=20 because I saw little on which to comment, it was business as usual, = with no=20 change.  I didn't catch much of his speech Friday on the economy, = but=20 what I got was significant. First, he expects to see proof of an = economic=20 recovery by summer (that means it would have to already be in = progress).=20 Second, he specifically commented: "hypothesis of an accelerated productivity trend had = not been=20 tested in the contracting phase of a business cycle.  Recent = developments=20 have provided that test, and the early returns certainly look = favorable to the=20 hypothesis." That comment, along with several others, leads me = to=20 conclude that the Feds will cut another 25 basis points on Jan 30. It = will=20 likely be the last cut, but I would also not expect to see any rate = hikes=20 until the end of the summer at the earliest. I also expect that when = rate=20 hikes occur, and they will, they will be small, occur slowly and = cautiously=20 until not only our economic growth is well established, but we also = see=20 improvement in the world economy.=20
ON = "M"
I am probably the wrong person to talk about = the market=20 trend this week, as every major index was down. Despite that, my IRA = gained=20 4.5% for the week and my VR Fund gained 2.8%, so for me the trend is = up. Not=20 withstanding that, the worries that the major indexes were developing = a head=20 and shoulders pattern appear to have been unfounded, with the possible = exception of the NASDAQ 100. The ten day moving averages on both = up/down=20 volume and new highs/lows are positive, and expectations of an = improving=20 economy, and recovering corporate profits, are strong. Thus I expect a = lot=20 more sidelined money to continue flowing into stocks during the next = month or=20 two.=20
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST=20 WANNABEES
While the population of stocks I review for my = own=20 personal investing (low priced, thinly traded small caps) has been = growing=20 nicely, the population of stocks I review for this column appears to = be=20 stagnant, not a surprise given the retreat by all markets this=20 week.
As always, Bx is my shorthand for a flat line = "B"ase of=20 "x" weeks duration. If I see a specific pattern, such as a cup and = handle,=20 double bottom, LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right, not officially CANSLIM = pattern),=20 etc, then I will say so.
 
ACS - LLUR, closely following the 50 = DMA
ALLY - B2
BBY - 5 week handle on the cup, but volume = still high,=20 funds already own 37%
BLUD - B2+
CEFT - 3+ week handle on a vague = cup
CVBF - LLUR
DLX - very smooth LLUR despite low earnings=20 forecasts
ELTE - B3
FCN - volatile LLUR attempting a b/o on Friday = on=20 volume, be careful
FMAR - c&h, low price and = volume
JNC - LLUR
MCRS - 2nd base on the handle
MHO - B5
OFIX - B4
PETM - LLUR
POSS - B2 below the high, in my VR = fund
RYAN - LLUR
TIER - B4
URBN - B3
 
Happy hunting,
 
God bless America, and its military = people,
 
Use of this email for any purpose other than = personal is=20 prohibited without prior permission of the author. Commercial use = without=20 permission is specifically prohibited.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
- ------=_NextPart_000_000E_01C19C2B.8ACC82F0-- _________________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 12:05:05 -0500 From: "Ann" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] market direction Andreas and all: How can it be a good M for value and growth stocks at the same time? Ann Slowly learning : I was able to make good money this week, right now for me the market is in a neutral mood. : It is a stock picker market, smal to mid cap value and growth (at the same time) like in Stocks : like DFXI, TTIL etc. are in good shape. : : - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 09:13:51 -0800 From: Dan Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] market direction Spx weekly chart shows strong resistance for 6 weeks at about 1177. Might get nice move, if it can close above! Andreas Himmelreich wrote: > Only 1 Diss Day this week, rest of the retrace was on lower vol, so nothing to worry about. > Nevertheless a lot of BOs failed or had severe retraces on Friday (GISX DYII). > > I was able to make good money this week, right now for me the market is in a neutral mood. > It is a stock picker market, smal to mid cap value and growth (at the same time) like in Stocks > like DFXI, TTIL etc. are in good shape. > > Nevertheless: The roaring bull market of the 90s will not come back ... As soon this happens (first week of > Jan), the market reacts very fast to the downside (like this week). > > > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > > Von: Kent Norman [SMTP:kent_norman@yahoo.com] > > Gesendet am: Sunday, January 13, 2002 4:11 PM > > An: CANSLIM > > Betreff: [CANSLIM] market direction > > > > Many "experts" are expecting the market to follow > > tradition and rise in January and go flat to down for > > a few months. Do you think this weeks 5 down days are > > meaningful? > > > > I know WON says we don't need to be concerned with > > where the market is heading, just where it is. > > > > So where is it? Is the party over? Should we all get > > out of the pool? > > > > Kent Norman > > > > > > ===== > > Opportunities always look bigger going than coming. > > > > __________________________________________________ > > Do You Yahoo!? > > Send FREE video emails in Yahoo! Mail! > > http://promo.yahoo.com/videomail/ > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2032 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.