From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2052 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, January 17 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2052 In this issue: AW: [CANSLIM] ROOM Re: AW: [CANSLIM] ROOM Re: [CANSLIM] ROOM RE: [CANSLIM] Nasdaq Future.... INS - Not Canslim Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis AW: AW: [CANSLIM] ROOM Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 18:45:58 +0100 From: Andreas Himmelreich Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] ROOM Hi Tom, What do you mean by soft year? Here the EPSs --> 0.2 0.29 0.69 1 (my estimation for 2001) 1.5 (my estimation for 2002). Its a smal cap going to be a mid cap, no firm can perform as good as in the first years of growth, that slows like in all firms in this transistion phase. PE is moderate, I like the scalable business model. They surfed through 9/11 businesswise in a good way. Hotels need ROOM, they provide a secondary room market in order to get their hotels full on lower prices, while still selling normal rates to groups that are not price sensitive (business travel, not so smart shopers). Room is a marketer of hotel room capacity and if somthing hotels need in though times then it is to market their capacity on garanteed price levels in order to cover their fix costs. ROI 12%, no dept, MGM owns 59% of the company. 4 Earnings suprises the last 4 Quaters. Here a summary (http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/room.html) Hotel Reservations Network, Inc. is a consolidator of hotel and other lodging accommodations. The Company contracts with lodging properties in advance for volume purchases and guaranteed availability of rooms at wholesale prices, and sells these rooms to consumers often at significant discounts to published rates. The Company's supply relationships also often allow it to offer customers accommodation alternatives for otherwise unavailable dates. In addition, through its wholly owned subsidiary, TravelNow.com Inc., the Company offers customers the ability to book hotel rooms, airline travel and car rentals. As of December 31, 2000, Hotel Reservations Network had room supply agreements with approximately 2,600 hotels in 97 major markets in North America, the Caribbean, Western Europe and Asia, as well as 113 vacation rental properties in 17 markets in North America and the Caribbean. "Hotel Reservations Network is an online consolidator of hotel accomodations, contracting with hotels in advance for volume purchases and guaranteed availability of hotel rooms at wholesale prices which are then sold to consumers. For the nine months ended 9/30/01, net revenues rose 73% to $394.8 million. Net income rose 43% to $8.1 million. Results reflect increased room sales through the Company's Internet sites, partially offset by higher non-cash marketing costs." Andreas > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > Von: Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] > Gesendet am: Thursday, January 17, 2002 5:45 PM > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] ROOM > > Hi Andreas, > > I would be cautious with ROOM, great sequential sales growth not reflected > in sequential earnings growth. Year to year earnings comparisons nice, but > against a soft year. And with all that has happened since 9/11, hotels are > cutting prices to attract visitors and increase occupancy, and avoid laying > off staff or cutting services. > > So I would expect to see a continued erosion in their gross and net profit > margins. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > AIM: TexWorley > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Andreas Himmelreich" > To: > Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:34 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] ROOM > > > > After this storm is over, Room might have built a nice CWH .... > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 11:07:35 -0700 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] ROOM Your estimate for this year (2001) and next year differ from the consensus estimates I see at Quicken. They show .89 for 2001, and 1.00 for 2002. If that is a close approximation to what the numbers actually come in at, then ROOM is probably overvalued at this point. On 17 Jan 2002 at 18:45, Andreas Himmelreich wrote: > Hi Tom, > > What do you mean by soft year? > > Here the EPSs --> > > 0.2 > 0.29 > 0.69 > 1 (my estimation for 2001) > 1.5 (my estimation for 2002). > > Its a smal cap going to be a mid cap, no firm can perform as good as in the > first years of growth, that slows like > in all firms in this transistion phase. > > PE is moderate, I like the scalable business model. They surfed through > 9/11 businesswise in a good way. > > Hotels need ROOM, they provide a secondary room market in order to get > their hotels full on lower prices, while > still selling normal rates to groups that are not price sensitive (business > travel, not so smart shopers). > > Room is a marketer of hotel room capacity and if somthing hotels need in > though times then it is > to market their capacity on garanteed price levels in order to cover their > fix costs. > > ROI 12%, no dept, MGM owns 59% of the company. > > 4 Earnings suprises the last 4 Quaters. > > Here a summary (http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/room.html) > > > Hotel Reservations Network, Inc. is a consolidator of hotel and other > lodging accommodations. The Company contracts with lodging properties in > advance for volume purchases and guaranteed availability of rooms at > wholesale prices, and sells these rooms to consumers often at significant > discounts to published rates. The Company's supply relationships also often > allow it to offer customers accommodation alternatives for otherwise > unavailable dates. In addition, through its wholly owned subsidiary, > TravelNow.com Inc., the Company offers customers the ability to book hotel > rooms, airline travel and car rentals. As of December 31, 2000, Hotel > Reservations Network had room supply agreements with approximately 2,600 > hotels in 97 major markets in North America, the Caribbean, Western Europe > and Asia, as well as 113 vacation rental properties in 17 markets in North > America and the Caribbean. > > > "Hotel Reservations Network is an online consolidator of hotel > accomodations, contracting with hotels in advance for volume purchases and > guaranteed availability of hotel rooms at wholesale prices which are then > sold to consumers. For the nine months ended 9/30/01, net revenues rose 73% > to $394.8 million. Net income rose 43% to $8.1 million. Results reflect > increased room sales through the Company's Internet sites, partially offset > by higher non-cash marketing costs." > > Andreas > > > > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > > Von: Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] > > Gesendet am: Thursday, January 17, 2002 5:45 PM > > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] ROOM > > > > Hi Andreas, > > > > I would be cautious with ROOM, great sequential sales growth not > reflected > > in sequential earnings growth. Year to year earnings comparisons nice, > but > > against a soft year. And with all that has happened since 9/11, hotels > are > > cutting prices to attract visitors and increase occupancy, and avoid > laying > > off staff or cutting services. > > > > So I would expect to see a continued erosion in their gross and net > profit > > margins. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > AIM: TexWorley > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Andreas Himmelreich" > > To: > > Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:34 AM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] ROOM > > > > > > > After this storm is over, Room might have built a nice CWH .... > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 12:59:11 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ROOM Hi Andreas, I actually was referring to two things by my "soft year" comment. First was actual earnings, which were good and growing, but still make this year's comparisons easier on a percentage and year to year basis. But I was also referring to the fact that the tourism industry has been hit very hard, first by a slowing economy in both the USA and globally. Then by the events of 9/11. Contrast this to year 2000, when recession was not even being discussed, and now today is reality. The comparisons for those industry sectors directly aligned with consumer discretionary spending are pretty dramatic. People are less willing to travel and spend these days, whether for business or pleasure. Some are afraid of traveling by plane, some are just worried about the cost, as more people get laid off from work. I expect it will become increasingly difficult for companies in the travel / tourism industry to show even neutral year to year comparisons, much less any kind of growth. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Andreas Himmelreich" To: Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 12:45 PM Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] ROOM > Hi Tom, > > What do you mean by soft year? > > Here the EPSs --> > > 0.2 > 0.29 > 0.69 > 1 (my estimation for 2001) > 1.5 (my estimation for 2002). > > Its a smal cap going to be a mid cap, no firm can perform as good as in the > first years of growth, that slows like > in all firms in this transistion phase. > > PE is moderate, I like the scalable business model. They surfed through > 9/11 businesswise in a good way. > > Hotels need ROOM, they provide a secondary room market in order to get > their hotels full on lower prices, while > still selling normal rates to groups that are not price sensitive (business > travel, not so smart shopers). > > Room is a marketer of hotel room capacity and if somthing hotels need in > though times then it is > to market their capacity on garanteed price levels in order to cover their > fix costs. > > ROI 12%, no dept, MGM owns 59% of the company. > > 4 Earnings suprises the last 4 Quaters. > > Here a summary (http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/room.html) > > > Hotel Reservations Network, Inc. is a consolidator of hotel and other > lodging accommodations. The Company contracts with lodging properties in > advance for volume purchases and guaranteed availability of rooms at > wholesale prices, and sells these rooms to consumers often at significant > discounts to published rates. The Company's supply relationships also often > allow it to offer customers accommodation alternatives for otherwise > unavailable dates. In addition, through its wholly owned subsidiary, > TravelNow.com Inc., the Company offers customers the ability to book hotel > rooms, airline travel and car rentals. As of December 31, 2000, Hotel > Reservations Network had room supply agreements with approximately 2,600 > hotels in 97 major markets in North America, the Caribbean, Western Europe > and Asia, as well as 113 vacation rental properties in 17 markets in North > America and the Caribbean. > > > "Hotel Reservations Network is an online consolidator of hotel > accomodations, contracting with hotels in advance for volume purchases and > guaranteed availability of hotel rooms at wholesale prices which are then > sold to consumers. For the nine months ended 9/30/01, net revenues rose 73% > to $394.8 million. Net income rose 43% to $8.1 million. Results reflect > increased room sales through the Company's Internet sites, partially offset > by higher non-cash marketing costs." > > Andreas > > > > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > > Von: Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] > > Gesendet am: Thursday, January 17, 2002 5:45 PM > > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] ROOM > > > > Hi Andreas, > > > > I would be cautious with ROOM, great sequential sales growth not > reflected > > in sequential earnings growth. Year to year earnings comparisons nice, > but > > against a soft year. And with all that has happened since 9/11, hotels > are > > cutting prices to attract visitors and increase occupancy, and avoid > laying > > off staff or cutting services. > > > > So I would expect to see a continued erosion in their gross and net > profit > > margins. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > AIM: TexWorley > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Andreas Himmelreich" > > To: > > Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:34 AM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] ROOM > > > > > > > After this storm is over, Room might have built a nice CWH .... > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 13:19:55 -0500 From: "Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA]" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Nasdaq Future.... INS - Not Canslim Fanus, Well said. And please don't take the opinion of one person to be representative of others. Freedom of speech includes the opinions of buffoons. Anyway, I believe that anyone who loves this country enough to uproot themselves and their families from their homelands and go through the process you describe is certainly worthy of being an American citizen. It's sad that so many American-born citizens take their citizenship for granted. John C. - -----Original Message----- From: Fanus [mailto:fanus13@yahoo.com] Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 12:10 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Nasdaq Future.... INS - Not Canslim I am currently a green card holder, so I guess I am one of the baffoons. It took me 3 years to get a green card and I had to have proof of employment before obtaining a workers visa. After one obtain a green card, you need to wait 5 years before you can become citizen, (if you marry a citizen, you have to wait 3 years), only then can you vote. So on average one can only vote after about 8 years. Don't know where you get the idea that people can vote right away. Furthermore, I am not elegible for welfare and social security. Only citizens are. But I still pay social security tax, which I do not have a problem with. This is a small price to pay to work in a stable country. Keep in mind, the general idea of immigrants working in the US is to fill jobs for which there are a shortage of skilled workers. And yes, there had to be a shortage. Before being able to get my green card, my job had to be advertised in a newspaper and only after there weren't qualifying applications from US citizens were it determined that there is a shortage for that particular skill. I am not sure how you consider filling shortages as hurting the country. You also cannot blame the INS for illegal immigrants working here. The INS had nothing to do with them. That is why they are illegal. I am sorry for going off the topic of the discussion list, but couldn't let this one slip by. Regards - - Fanus - --- Dan Forant wrote: > Please, let's not compare the immigrants of today > with the past. No > comparison. If you don't believe the INS has hurt > the Nation in general, > that's your right. This was a broad stroke > statement, not just about Miami, > but including Miami. > > DanF > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Tom Worley" > To: > Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 1:23 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Nasdaq Future is under water > .... > > > > Dan, having lived in Miami, FL for the past 18 > years, I take exception to > > your statements. > > > > The bulk of the immigrants that have settled here > are Cuban, and they are > > among the most hard working people I have met. > They are family oriented, > and > > welcome with open arms even very distant > relatives, or even friends or > > neighbors of distant relatives. They help find > them a place to live, they > > find them a job, they support them and ease the > transition into a new > > country and culture. > > > > I also believe one of the requirements to gain > resident alien status is > > proof of a job, or other means of support to > ensure welfare will not be an > > issue. > > > > I certainly would not be still living in the city > of Miami after 18 years > if > > I believe it was "ruined". > > > > Where did you get the notion that a recent > immigrant, legal or illegal, > was > > even allowed to vote? Are you forgetting that most > present day citizens of > > the USA were once an immigrant, or are descended > from an immigrant? Not a > > bad thing, I believe this cultural blend is what > has made this country so > > great, and made it value freedom so much. > > > > I would also note that typically only a very small > percentage of the > > citizens of the United States even bother to vote. > Guess the ones that > don't > > bother are baffoons as well? > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@netside.net > > AIM: TexWorley > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Dan Forant" > > To: > > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 7:17 PM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Nasdaq Future is under > water .... > > > > > > > Fanus, > > > > > > It is a well known fact the last Administration > let in a bunch of > baffoons > > > mainly so they would enroll Democrat and vote. > Un-controlled borders > etc. > > > Carter did the same thing and ruined Miami Fla. > Most of these enrolled > > > immediately for welfare of sorts. Couldn't or > can't speak the language > let > > > alone have a trade of any sort. That doesn't > include the illegal ones > > > including those from the troubled Middle East. > > > > > > DanF > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: "Fanus" > > > To: > > > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 4:28 PM > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Nasdaq Future is under > water .... > > > > > > > > > > Dan > > > > > > > > Please clarify your statement "The INS has > screwed up > > > > the makeup of our Country..." > > > > > > > > - Fanus > > > > > > > > --- Dan Forant wrote: > > > > > Glug,glug,glug, under water is right. Enron > may have > > > > > put the final nail in > > > > > the coffin for awhile. This combined with > future > > > > > bleak earnings spell > > > > > trouble ahead. Kmart bumbling along with > other bad > > > > > news such as the SEC's > > > > > inability to keep track of GIANTS have given > > > > > investors a bad taste. Congress > > > > > will bloat and gloat for months over Enron > and I > > > > > believe very little will be > > > > > done about it legally. Congress is part of > the > > > > > problem. Campaign $$$. The > > > > > INS has screwed up the makeup of our > Country, the > > > > > Government (SEC) may now > > > > > have set back our financial markets for > quite > > > > > awhile.. That's why a large > > > > > brokerage house recently said to be only 50% > > > > > invested. But then again > > > > > ........of course they would. > > > > > > > > > > DanF > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > > From: "Andreas Himmelreich" > > > > > > To: > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 7:42 AM > > > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Nasdaq Future is under > water .... > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Nasdaq Future is under water .... > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > > > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe > canslim" or > > > > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes > in your > > > > > email. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > > > > > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe > canslim" or > > > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes > in your > > > > email. > > > > > > > > > > > > > __________________________________________________ > > > > Do You Yahoo!? > > > > Send FREE video emails in Yahoo! Mail! > > > > http://promo.yahoo.com/videomail/ > > > > > > > > - > > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" > or > > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in > your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in > your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > === message truncated === __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send FREE video emails in Yahoo! Mail! http://promo.yahoo.com/videomail/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 18:23:04 GMT From: "Boyd" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis Crimony! Katherine you really should be teaching a course on investing at UT or ACC (Austin Community College). Maybe you'll be the next group member to get a call from IBD?? That was a very good summary on the DYII action. Thanks. Norm Katherine Malm writes: > DYII is a stock that came up for discussion on the list in early October. This is a stock that crossed my radar, but at the time I passed due to the poor chart action around 10/5. I have been watching it since and was interested in what the chart might have said prior to the failure yesterday. Here is what I saw that would have been sell signals for me: > > (1) 10/5/01--tail...ominous end to attempted breakout of an 11-1/2 week base. This is one of the reasons (along with due diligence) that I crossed it off the list. > (2) 10/8/01--gap down just before earnings-Co. press release says "short sellers at fault" That's the goofiest reasoning I've ever heard and was a red flag that these guys don't know what they're doing. I never like a gap down just before an earnings announcement. It's a big red flag. If it happens, I'll generally wait for a bounce in the next day or 2 that begins to reverse and will sell into strength. > (3) 11/26/01--Breakout from sloppy 7 wk base. So, let's say someone bought on this breakout...let's see what comes next... > (4) 11/28/01--Reversal that closes below low of previous day just after B/O---I would take at least 50% off the table on this sell rule. > (5) 12/10/01-12/12/01--3 days closing just at "pivot"--red flag....stock has retraced to pivot, but not a sell rule in and of itself. > (6) 1/3/02--promising action on high volume--ok, this action is acceptable, might be ok afterall...but still the red flags are there...more red flags and this one should be out of the portfolio. > (7) 1/8/02-1/9/02--high volume with no progress for 2 days in a row---last red flag in my book, if I'd held the last 50%, it would be gone here. > (8) 1/10/02--high volume tail that closes below low of previous day--if I'd lost focus and missed the last sell, this would be the next sell signal. > (9) 1/14/02--gaps down on earnings day (earnings announced after market close)--sell rule hit---if I'd lost focus and missed everything else...this would be it. > (10) 1/15/02--bounces, but leaves a tail on close---last chance for the exits, a little bounce while the bargain hunters move in. Sell. > (11) 1/16/02--resolution. 2:46 pm, just before market close, Herb Greenberg article at theStreet.com points out possible accounting shenanigans and goofy CEO/CFO nonresponse to income statement inquiries. If I'd missed everything else and this plunged, an open protective stop set for "catastrophic loss" would have caught this on the way down. > (12) 1/16/02--Company issues response to Greenberg article after market close. I still can't figure out why a CFO couldn't have answered these questions when they were asked. Maybe he learned accounting somewhere other than the US and is still learning. > > A chart with comments is posted at: > http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/DYII-PostAnal_011602.jpg > > Katherine > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 10:37:35 -0800 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis Excellent analysis Katherine! The comment (2) about "short sellers at fault" should have been a big red flag. Excuse me if you've been asked this before here but your reference to "tails" in this and other posts has poked my interest as a way to track daily price moves. Is there a site or book you can recommend for study? Btw, as I stare at my Jan 11, IBD Weekend Review my thoughts are: "Why is it listed here?". - -Bill - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Katherine Malm" To: Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 9:30 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis DYII is a stock that came up for discussion on the list in early October. This is a stock that crossed my radar, but at the time I passed due to the poor chart action around 10/5. I have been watching it since and was interested in what the chart might have said prior to the failure yesterday. Here is what I saw that would have been sell signals for me: (1) 10/5/01--tail...ominous end to attempted breakout of an 11-1/2 week base. This is one of the reasons (along with due diligence) that I crossed it off the list. (2) 10/8/01--gap down just before earnings-Co. press release says "short sellers at fault" That's the goofiest reasoning I've ever heard and was a red flag that these guys don't know what they're doing. I never like a gap down just before an earnings announcement. It's a big red flag. If it happens, I'll generally wait for a bounce in the next day or 2 that begins to reverse and will sell into strength. (3) 11/26/01--Breakout from sloppy 7 wk base. So, let's say someone bought on this breakout...let's see what comes next... (4) 11/28/01--Reversal that closes below low of previous day just after B/O---I would take at least 50% off the table on this sell rule. (5) 12/10/01-12/12/01--3 days closing just at "pivot"--red flag....stock has retraced to pivot, but not a sell rule in and of itself. (6) 1/3/02--promising action on high volume--ok, this action is acceptable, might be ok afterall...but still the red flags are there...more red flags and this one should be out of the portfolio. (7) 1/8/02-1/9/02--high volume with no progress for 2 days in a row---last red flag in my book, if I'd held the last 50%, it would be gone here. (8) 1/10/02--high volume tail that closes below low of previous day--if I'd lost focus and missed the last sell, this would be the next sell signal. (9) 1/14/02--gaps down on earnings day (earnings announced after market close)--sell rule hit---if I'd lost focus and missed everything else...this would be it. (10) 1/15/02--bounces, but leaves a tail on close---last chance for the exits, a little bounce while the bargain hunters move in. Sell. (11) 1/16/02--resolution. 2:46 pm, just before market close, Herb Greenberg article at theStreet.com points out possible accounting shenanigans and goofy CEO/CFO nonresponse to income statement inquiries. If I'd missed everything else and this plunged, an open protective stop set for "catastrophic loss" would have caught this on the way down. (12) 1/16/02--Company issues response to Greenberg article after market close. I still can't figure out why a CFO couldn't have answered these questions when they were asked. Maybe he learned accounting somewhere other than the US and is still learning. A chart with comments is posted at: http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/DYII-PostAnal_011602.jpg Katherine - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 19:44:11 +0100 From: Andreas Himmelreich Subject: AW: AW: [CANSLIM] ROOM Of cause they differ, I have a different opinion then the analysts here .... for 2001: 0.20 0.26 0.27 --> 0.79, so they are going to make 0.10 in the 4th quarter??? Nope, from my point of view it will be much more ... Its one of these companies, that can commincate very, very well with the market, keeping guidance low, so there is always room to suprise ..., they always seem to be a bit overvalued. See you Andreas > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > Von: Patrick Wahl [SMTP:pjwahl@attbi.com] > Gesendet am: Thursday, January 17, 2002 7:08 PM > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Betreff: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] ROOM > > Your estimate for this year (2001) and next year differ from the consensus > estimates I see at Quicken. They show .89 for 2001, and 1.00 for 2002. If that is a > close approximation to what the numbers actually come in at, then ROOM is > probably overvalued at this point. > > On 17 Jan 2002 at 18:45, Andreas Himmelreich wrote: > > > Hi Tom, > > > > What do you mean by soft year? > > > > Here the EPSs --> > > > > 0.2 > > 0.29 > > 0.69 > > 1 (my estimation for 2001) > > 1.5 (my estimation for 2002). > > > > Its a smal cap going to be a mid cap, no firm can perform as good as in the > > first years of growth, that slows like > > in all firms in this transistion phase. > > > > PE is moderate, I like the scalable business model. They surfed through > > 9/11 businesswise in a good way. > > > > Hotels need ROOM, they provide a secondary room market in order to get > > their hotels full on lower prices, while > > still selling normal rates to groups that are not price sensitive (business > > travel, not so smart shopers). > > > > Room is a marketer of hotel room capacity and if somthing hotels need in > > though times then it is > > to market their capacity on garanteed price levels in order to cover their > > fix costs. > > > > ROI 12%, no dept, MGM owns 59% of the company. > > > > 4 Earnings suprises the last 4 Quaters. > > > > Here a summary (http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/room.html) > > > > > > Hotel Reservations Network, Inc. is a consolidator of hotel and other > > lodging accommodations. The Company contracts with lodging properties in > > advance for volume purchases and guaranteed availability of rooms at > > wholesale prices, and sells these rooms to consumers often at significant > > discounts to published rates. The Company's supply relationships also often > > allow it to offer customers accommodation alternatives for otherwise > > unavailable dates. In addition, through its wholly owned subsidiary, > > TravelNow.com Inc., the Company offers customers the ability to book hotel > > rooms, airline travel and car rentals. As of December 31, 2000, Hotel > > Reservations Network had room supply agreements with approximately 2,600 > > hotels in 97 major markets in North America, the Caribbean, Western Europe > > and Asia, as well as 113 vacation rental properties in 17 markets in North > > America and the Caribbean. > > > > > > "Hotel Reservations Network is an online consolidator of hotel > > accomodations, contracting with hotels in advance for volume purchases and > > guaranteed availability of hotel rooms at wholesale prices which are then > > sold to consumers. For the nine months ended 9/30/01, net revenues rose 73% > > to $394.8 million. Net income rose 43% to $8.1 million. Results reflect > > increased room sales through the Company's Internet sites, partially offset > > by higher non-cash marketing costs." > > > > Andreas > > > > > > > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- > > > Von: Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] > > > Gesendet am: Thursday, January 17, 2002 5:45 PM > > > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] ROOM > > > > > > Hi Andreas, > > > > > > I would be cautious with ROOM, great sequential sales growth not > > reflected > > > in sequential earnings growth. Year to year earnings comparisons nice, > > but > > > against a soft year. And with all that has happened since 9/11, hotels > > are > > > cutting prices to attract visitors and increase occupancy, and avoid > > laying > > > off staff or cutting services. > > > > > > So I would expect to see a continued erosion in their gross and net > > profit > > > margins. > > > > > > Tom Worley > > > stkguru@netside.net > > > AIM: TexWorley > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: "Andreas Himmelreich" > > > To: > > > Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:34 AM > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] ROOM > > > > > > > > > > After this storm is over, Room might have built a nice CWH .... > > > > > > > > - > > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 12:51:35 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_01CD_01C19F55.B2854700 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Thanks, Bill. There are more technical terms for what I call a tail. In candlestick = analysis there is a name for a "tail up" and a "tail down" but I always = forget their official names as I have no context for the terms. I tend = to use more personal words to describe price action and it unfortunately = doesn't always translate well. When I was a kid I used to chase and = catch pollywogs....thus my use of the term "tail." Tail down...pollywog = swimming south. Tail up....pollywog swimming north. My personal favorite site for learning more about technical analysis is = TradingMarkets.com. (excellent paid site-- http://www.tradingmarkets.com = ) Another with good technical chart reading lessons (free) is = StockCharts.com (http://stockcharts.com/education/index.html). For info = on candlesticks (free)--- http://www.litwick.com Katherine PS... re "Btw, as I stare at my Jan 11, IBD Weekend Review my thoughts = are: "Why is it listed here?" Exactly the reason I do my own homework. Interestingly, = the EPS/SMR/ROE numbers if used as a proxy for fundamental strength = would have told you this was ok. The high RS implies some form of = technical strength. BUT due diligence and good chart reading tell = another story. I don't think WON would advocate buying into such a = faulty pattern, so I understand why it showed up on the list, but would = otherwise be a "pass." ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Bill Triffet=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 12:37 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis Excellent analysis Katherine! The comment (2) about "short sellers at = fault" should have been a big red flag. Excuse me if you've been asked this before here but your reference to "tails" in this and other posts has poked my interest as a way to = track daily price moves. Is there a site or book you can recommend for = study? Btw, as I stare at my Jan 11, IBD Weekend Review my thoughts are: "Why = is it listed here?". -Bill ----- Original Message ----- From: "Katherine Malm" To: Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 9:30 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis DYII is a stock that came up for discussion on the list in early = October. This is a stock that crossed my radar, but at the time I passed due to = the poor chart action around 10/5. I have been watching it since and was interested in what the chart might have said prior to the failure = yesterday. Here is what I saw that would have been sell signals for me: (1) 10/5/01--tail...ominous end to attempted breakout of an 11-1/2 = week base. This is one of the reasons (along with due diligence) that I = crossed it off the list. (2) 10/8/01--gap down just before earnings-Co. press release says = "short sellers at fault" That's the goofiest reasoning I've ever heard and = was a red flag that these guys don't know what they're doing. I never like a = gap down just before an earnings announcement. It's a big red flag. If it happens, I'll generally wait for a bounce in the next day or 2 that = begins to reverse and will sell into strength. (3) 11/26/01--Breakout from sloppy 7 wk base. So, let's say someone = bought on this breakout...let's see what comes next... (4) 11/28/01--Reversal that closes below low of previous day just = after B/O---I would take at least 50% off the table on this sell rule. (5) 12/10/01-12/12/01--3 days closing just at "pivot"--red = flag....stock has retraced to pivot, but not a sell rule in and of itself. (6) 1/3/02--promising action on high volume--ok, this action is = acceptable, might be ok afterall...but still the red flags are there...more red = flags and this one should be out of the portfolio. (7) 1/8/02-1/9/02--high volume with no progress for 2 days in a = row---last red flag in my book, if I'd held the last 50%, it would be gone here. (8) 1/10/02--high volume tail that closes below low of previous = day--if I'd lost focus and missed the last sell, this would be the next sell = signal. (9) 1/14/02--gaps down on earnings day (earnings announced after = market close)--sell rule hit---if I'd lost focus and missed everything = else...this would be it. (10) 1/15/02--bounces, but leaves a tail on close---last chance for = the exits, a little bounce while the bargain hunters move in. Sell. (11) 1/16/02--resolution. 2:46 pm, just before market close, Herb = Greenberg article at theStreet.com points out possible accounting shenanigans = and goofy CEO/CFO nonresponse to income statement inquiries. If I'd missed everything else and this plunged, an open protective stop set for "catastrophic loss" would have caught this on the way down. (12) 1/16/02--Company issues response to Greenberg article after = market close. I still can't figure out why a CFO couldn't have answered these questions when they were asked. Maybe he learned accounting somewhere = other than the US and is still learning. A chart with comments is posted at: http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/DYII-PostAnal_011602.jpg Katherine - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_01CD_01C19F55.B2854700 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Thanks, Bill.
 
There are more technical terms for what I call a tail. In = candlestick=20 analysis there is a name for a "tail up" and a "tail down" but I always = forget=20 their official names as I have no context for the terms. I = tend to use=20 more personal words to describe price action and it unfortunately = doesn't always=20 translate well. When I was a kid I used to chase and catch = pollywogs....thus my=20 use of the term "tail." Tail down...pollywog swimming south. Tail = up....pollywog=20 swimming north.
 
My personal favorite site for learning more about technical = analysis is=20 TradingMarkets.com. (excellent paid site-- http://www.tradingmarkets.com = ) Another=20 with good technical chart reading lessons (free) is StockCharts.com (http://stockcharts.c= om/education/index.html).=20 For info on candlesticks (free)--- http://www.litwick.com
 
Katherine
 
PS... re "Btw, as I stare at my Jan 11, IBD Weekend Review my = thoughts are:=20 "Why is it
listed here?" Exactly the reason I do my own homework.=20 Interestingly, the EPS/SMR/ROE numbers if used as a proxy for = fundamental=20 strength would have told you this was ok. The high RS implies some form = of=20 technical strength. BUT due diligence and good chart reading tell = another story.=20 I don't think WON would advocate buying into such a faulty pattern, so I = understand why it showed up on the list, but would otherwise be a = "pass."
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Bill=20 Triffet
Sent: Thursday, January 17, = 2002 12:37=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII=20 Revisited--post analysis

Excellent analysis Katherine! The comment (2) about = "short=20 sellers at fault"
should have been a big red flag.
Excuse me if = you've=20 been asked this before here but your reference to
"tails" in this = and other=20 posts has poked my interest as a way to track
daily price moves. Is = there a=20 site or book you can recommend for study?

Btw, as I stare at my = Jan 11,=20 IBD Weekend Review my thoughts are: "Why is it
listed=20 here?".


-Bill
----- Original Message -----
From: = "Katherine=20 Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
To: = <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
Sent:=20 Thursday, January 17, 2002 9:30 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] DYII = Revisited--post=20 analysis


DYII is a stock that came up for discussion on the = list in=20 early October.
This is a stock that crossed my radar, but at the = time I=20 passed due to the
poor chart action around 10/5. I have been = watching it=20 since and was
interested in what the chart might have said prior to = the=20 failure yesterday.
Here is what I saw that would have been sell = signals for=20 me:

(1) 10/5/01--tail...ominous end to attempted breakout of an = 11-1/2=20 week
base. This is one of the reasons (along with due diligence) = that I=20 crossed
it off the list.
(2) 10/8/01--gap down just before = earnings-Co.=20 press release says "short
sellers at fault" That's the goofiest = reasoning=20 I've ever heard and was a
red flag that these guys don't know what = they're=20 doing. I never like a gap
down just before an earnings = announcement. It's a=20 big red flag. If it
happens, I'll generally wait for a bounce in = the next=20 day or 2 that begins
to reverse and will sell into strength.
(3) = 11/26/01--Breakout from sloppy 7 wk base. So, let's say someone = bought
on=20 this breakout...let's see what comes next...
(4) 11/28/01--Reversal = that=20 closes below low of previous day just after
B/O---I would take at = least 50%=20 off the table on this sell rule.
(5) 12/10/01-12/12/01--3 days = closing just=20 at "pivot"--red flag....stock has
retraced to pivot, but not a sell = rule in=20 and of itself.
(6) 1/3/02--promising action on high volume--ok, = this action=20 is acceptable,
might be ok afterall...but still the red flags are=20 there...more red flags
and this one should be out of the = portfolio.
(7)=20 1/8/02-1/9/02--high volume with no progress for 2 days in a = row---last
red=20 flag in my book, if I'd held the last 50%, it would be gone = here.
(8)=20 1/10/02--high volume tail that closes below low of previous day--if=20 I'd
lost focus and missed the last sell, this would be the next = sell=20 signal.
(9) 1/14/02--gaps down on earnings day (earnings announced = after=20 market
close)--sell rule hit---if I'd lost focus and missed = everything=20 else...this
would be it.
(10) 1/15/02--bounces, but leaves a = tail on=20 close---last chance for the
exits, a little bounce while the = bargain=20 hunters move in. Sell.
(11) 1/16/02--resolution. 2:46 pm, just = before=20 market close, Herb Greenberg
article at theStreet.com points out = possible=20 accounting shenanigans and
goofy CEO/CFO nonresponse to income = statement=20 inquiries. If I'd missed
everything else and this plunged, an open=20 protective stop set for
"catastrophic loss" would have caught this = on the=20 way down.
(12) 1/16/02--Company issues response to Greenberg = article after=20 market
close. I still can't figure out why a CFO couldn't have = answered=20 these
questions when they were asked. Maybe he learned accounting = somewhere=20 other
than the US and is still learning.

A chart with = comments is=20 posted at:
http://Wa= llStreet-LLC.com/pub/DYII-PostAnal_011602.jpg

Katherine




-
-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_01CD_01C19F55.B2854700-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2052 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.