From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2103 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, January 31 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2103 In this issue: [CANSLIM] LLUR from Briefing.com [CANSLIM] LLUR from Briefing.com [CANSLIM] LLUR from Briefing.com [CANSLIM] LLUR from Briefing.com [CANSLIM] Sorry about 4 copies Re: [CANSLIM] Oskosh B'gosh gosha ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 13:18:14 -0500 From: "Ben Chilcote" Subject: [CANSLIM] LLUR from Briefing.com This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0007_01C1AA59.BD4C9AD0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable FYI, following is a "Story Stock" writeup today by Briefing.com talking = about the LLUR type chart and mentioning a couple of stocks that have = this characteristic. =20 Ben 11:23 ET PETsMART (PETM): 10.51 +0.21: PETsMART is the largest pet = supply retailer as it operates more than 560 pet stores in North = America, as well as a large pet supply catalog business. The company is = raising guidance this morning as it boosts its 2001 earnings outlook to = a range of $0.33-$0.34 from previous forecast of $0.28 and vs the Multex = consensus of $0.29. The company says it's just beginning to see the = results of its work to reformat stores. Also, holiday sales came in = above plan with momentum carrying into January. Management now sees Q4 = (Jan) same store sales growth of at least 9%. PETM has been trickling = out good news consistently for the last few months which has resulted in = a beautiful chart. It has avoided wild moves in either direction, = instead taking a slow and steady climb into double digits. The following = statement may not be win us a Nobel prize for its brilliance, but...look = for these types of charts generally. They tend to keep going up. Other = examples are CKE Restaurants (CKR 9.96 +0.07), Deluxe Corp. (DLX 44.94 = - -0.01), H&R Block (HRB 45.52 -0.04), Ikon Office (IKN 13.69 -0.06). = These charts are created for a reason. Normally, they are generated by = companies that consistently beat numbers and guide higher. Also, it = indicates that management has a good handle on earning expectations to = avoid surprises. -- Robert J. Reid, Briefing.com - ------=_NextPart_000_0007_01C1AA59.BD4C9AD0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

FYI, following is a "Story Stock" = writeup today by=20 Briefing.com talking about the LLUR type chart and mentioning a couple = of stocks=20 that have this characteristic.

Ben

11:23 ET PETsMART (PETM): 10.51 +0.21: PETsMART is the largest = pet=20 supply retailer as it operates more than 560 pet stores in North = America, as=20 well as a large pet supply catalog business. The company is raising = guidance=20 this morning as it boosts its 2001 earnings outlook to a range of = $0.33-$0.34=20 from previous forecast of $0.28 and vs the Multex consensus of $0.29. = The=20 company says it's just beginning to see the results of its work to = reformat=20 stores. Also, holiday sales came in above plan with momentum carrying = into=20 January. Management now sees Q4 (Jan) same store sales growth of at = least 9%.=20 PETM has been trickling out good news consistently for the last few = months which=20 has resulted in a beautiful chart.=20 It has avoided wild moves in either direction, instead taking a slow and = steady=20 climb into double digits. The following statement may not be win us a = Nobel=20 prize for its brilliance, but...look for these types of charts = generally. They=20 tend to keep going up. Other examples are CKE Restaurants (CKR 9.96 = +0.07),=20 Deluxe Corp. (DLX 44.94 -0.01), H&R Block (HRB 45.52 -0.04), Ikon = Office=20 (IKN 13.69 -0.06). These charts are created for a reason. Normally, = they are=20 generated by companies that consistently beat numbers and guide higher. = Also, it=20 indicates that management has a good handle on earning expectations to = avoid=20 surprises. -- Robert J. Reid, = Briefing.com

- ------=_NextPart_000_0007_01C1AA59.BD4C9AD0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 13:18:14 -0500 From: "Ben Chilcote" Subject: [CANSLIM] LLUR from Briefing.com This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0007_01C1AA59.BD4C9AD0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable FYI, following is a "Story Stock" writeup today by Briefing.com talking = about the LLUR type chart and mentioning a couple of stocks that have = this characteristic. =20 Ben 11:23 ET PETsMART (PETM): 10.51 +0.21: PETsMART is the largest pet = supply retailer as it operates more than 560 pet stores in North = America, as well as a large pet supply catalog business. The company is = raising guidance this morning as it boosts its 2001 earnings outlook to = a range of $0.33-$0.34 from previous forecast of $0.28 and vs the Multex = consensus of $0.29. The company says it's just beginning to see the = results of its work to reformat stores. Also, holiday sales came in = above plan with momentum carrying into January. Management now sees Q4 = (Jan) same store sales growth of at least 9%. PETM has been trickling = out good news consistently for the last few months which has resulted in = a beautiful chart. It has avoided wild moves in either direction, = instead taking a slow and steady climb into double digits. The following = statement may not be win us a Nobel prize for its brilliance, but...look = for these types of charts generally. They tend to keep going up. Other = examples are CKE Restaurants (CKR 9.96 +0.07), Deluxe Corp. (DLX 44.94 = - -0.01), H&R Block (HRB 45.52 -0.04), Ikon Office (IKN 13.69 -0.06). = These charts are created for a reason. Normally, they are generated by = companies that consistently beat numbers and guide higher. Also, it = indicates that management has a good handle on earning expectations to = avoid surprises. -- Robert J. Reid, Briefing.com - ------=_NextPart_000_0007_01C1AA59.BD4C9AD0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

FYI, following is a "Story Stock" = writeup today by=20 Briefing.com talking about the LLUR type chart and mentioning a couple = of stocks=20 that have this characteristic.

Ben

FYI, following is a "Story Stock" = writeup today by=20 Briefing.com talking about the LLUR type chart and mentioning a couple = of stocks=20 that have this characteristic.

Ben

FYI, following is a "Story Stock" = writeup today by=20 Briefing.com talking about the LLUR type chart and mentioning a couple = of stocks=20 that have this characteristic.

Ben

Sorry about the 4 copies of my = email. I was=20 having problems with my email program sending and didn't realize that it = was=20 sending a copy each time I retried.

Ben

- ------=_NextPart_000_0028_01C1AA5A.B19FE830-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 12:41:24 -0600 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Oskosh B'gosh gosha This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_009C_01C1AA54.97D55580 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Steve,=20 The 37% growth rate is a 5 year rate of growth in earnings. You can do a quick approximation by taking 1996 earnings=20 $0.66 * (1.37)^5 =3D 3.19 for current year The discrepancy between the high EPS Ranking and the lousy recent Q over = Q actual EPS numbers show the shortcoming of the EPS Ranking system. = That is, based on 5 year earnings growth, the company has outperformed = 89% of other stocks. But recent quarters tell the tale more often than = not. That's why WON says to look at *both* 5 yr growth (old history) and = recent QoQ EPS and Revenue growth (more recent history). As Tom often = points out, you also want to put this in context of *expected* EPS and = revenue growth in the near future by paying attention to earnings = estimates. All pieces of the bigger puzzle. The discrepancies in D/E, ROE and ROA between DGO and Yahoo have to do = with the time periods used for the calculations and also the many = interpretations of both EPS and number of shares outstanding. Here's an = example as to why you will find these differences: Go to MarketGuide and you will see the following EPS numbers for GOSHA: Diluted EPS Excl. Extraordinary items, Diluted EPS Incl. Extra. items, = Pro Forma Basic EPS, Pro Forma Diluted EPS, Basic Normalized EPS, = Diluted Normalized EPS. *ALL* of which differ from the DGO numbers! If = the number of shares and the EPS numbers can be this different and = interpreted in so many ways, you can see why D/E, ROE and ROA would be = so different. D/E =3D Long Term Debt/ Equity ROE =3D Earnings / Equity ROA =3D Earnings / Total Assets Fiddle with the numerator or denominator in any of these and you can = have a gazillion different answers. So...pick one source and just stick with it. Yahoo shows D/E at 61% so not sure where you see "very little debt." = They do list it as "0.61" rather than "61%" so that may be were the = confusion lies. Have fun! Katherine (and who said investing was easy??????!!) References so you can see all this mumbo jumbo yourself.... http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gosha.html look to lower right of page for = that 0.61 number http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformati= on/ratio&Ticker=3DGOSHA ratio comparisons to industry http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D%2Fstocks%2Fcompanyinfor= mation%2Fincomestmt2Faincomestd&Ticker=3DGOSHA annual income statements http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D%2Fstocks%2Fcompanyinfor= mation%2Fbalancesheet%2Fabalancestd&Ticker=3DGOSHA balance sheets Note: TTM =3D trailing 12 months, MRQ =3D most recent quarters Here's the DGO definitions DEBT PERCENTAGE: Calculated using fiscal year-end values and dividing the long-term debt = including lease obligations, convertible debt and mortgages by = shareholders' equity.=20 RETURN ON EQUITY PERCENTAGE: Computed by dividing annual income (before extraordinary items, = discontinued operations, cumulative accounting adjustments and = non-recurring items) by an average of the latest fiscal year and the = prior year's stockholders' equity. EARNINGS FIVE-YEAR GROWTH RATE: This item is calculated by using a least squares regression fit over a = 3-to-5 year period of earnings per share based on a trailing = four-quarter count. For example, if a stock is currently in its second = quarter, the first period used in this calculation will consist of the = sum of Q2 + Q1 (of the current fiscal year) plus Q4 +Q3 (of the prior = fiscal year). Each successive period will be based on the next trailing = four quarters of earnings per share. The amount of time used to calculate the Growth Rate is based on two = factors;=20 a.. Availability of data=20 b.. Positive earnings=20 If a stock does not have at least three years of positive earnings = (based on the trailing four-quarter method noted above), an "N/A" will = appear.=20 The amount of time used for this calculation will consist of at least = three years but no more than five years of positive earnings per share. = If a four-quarter period sum is negative, that period and additional = earnings further back in time, will not be used in the calculation of = this data item.=20 SHARES, COMMON OUTSTANDING (IN MILLIONS): The total number of shares issued by the company minus treasury stock.=20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Steve F=20 To: canslim@xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, January 31, 2002 8:44 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Oskosh B'gosh gosha I could use some help interpreting the DGO graph for this stock. RS - 91 =20 EPS - 89 Growth Rate 37% These numbers do not seem to correspond to the 'not so great' quarterly growth numbers on the bottom of the graph. Also, looking at the company profile on Yahoo shows almost no debt but the DGO datablock shows 76 %. =20 Note the return on Equity 68%, and return on assets 21% listed on Yahoo profile. Comments appreciated. Steve __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Great stuff seeking new owners in Yahoo! Auctions!=20 http://auctions.yahoo.com - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_009C_01C1AA54.97D55580 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Hi Steve,

The 37% growth rate is a 5 year rate of growth in=20 earnings.

You can do a quick approximation by = taking 1996=20 earnings

$0.66=20 * (1.37)^5 =3D 3.19 for current year

The=20 discrepancy between the high EPS Ranking and the lousy recent Q over Q = actual=20 EPS numbers show the shortcoming of the EPS Ranking system. That is, = based on 5=20 year earnings growth, the company has outperformed 89% of other stocks. = But=20 recent quarters tell the tale more often than not. That's why WON says = to look=20 at *both* 5 yr growth (old history) and recent QoQ EPS and Revenue = growth (more=20 recent history). As Tom often points out, you also want to put this in = context=20 of *expected* EPS and revenue growth in the near future by paying = attention to=20 earnings estimates. All pieces of the bigger puzzle.

The=20 discrepancies in D/E, ROE and ROA between DGO and Yahoo have to do with = the time=20 periods used for the calculations and also the many interpretations of = both EPS=20 and number of shares outstanding. Here's an example as to why you will = find=20 these differences:

Go=20 to MarketGuide and you will see the following EPS numbers for=20 GOSHA:

Diluted=20 EPS Excl. Extraordinary items, Diluted EPS Incl. Extra. items, Pro Forma = Basic=20 EPS, Pro Forma Diluted EPS, Basic Normalized EPS, Diluted Normalized = EPS. *ALL*=20 of which differ from the DGO numbers! If the number of shares and the = EPS=20 numbers can be this different and interpreted in so many ways, you can = see why=20 D/E, ROE and ROA would be so different.

D/E=20 =3D Long Term Debt/ Equity

ROE=20 =3D Earnings / Equity

ROA=20 =3D Earnings / Total Assets

Fiddle=20 with the numerator or denominator in any of these and you can have a = gazillion=20 different answers.

So...pick=20 one source and just stick with it.

Yahoo=20 shows D/E at 61% so not sure where you see "very little debt." They do = list it=20 as "0.61" rather than "61%" so that may be were the confusion = lies.

Have=20 fun! Katherine (and who said investing was easy??????!!)

References=20 so you can see all this mumbo jumbo yourself....

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gos= ha.html =20 look to lower right of page for that 0.61 number

http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.= asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformation/ratio&Ticker=3DGOSHA = ;ratio=20 comparisons to industry

http://yahoo.= marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D%2Fstocks%2Fcompanyinformation%2Finco= mestmt2Faincomestd&Ticker=3DGOSHA annual=20 income statements

http://ya= hoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D%2Fstocks%2Fcompanyinformation%2F= balancesheet%2Fabalancestd&Ticker=3DGOSHA balance=20 sheets

Note:=20 TTM =3D trailing 12 months, MRQ =3D most recent quarters

Here's=20 the DGO definitions

DEBT=20 PERCENTAGE:
Calculated using=20 fiscal year-end values and dividing the long-term debt including lease=20 obligations, convertible debt and mortgages by shareholders' equity.=20

RETURN ON EQUITY=20 PERCENTAGE:
Computed by dividing=20 annual income (before extraordinary items, discontinued operations, = cumulative=20 accounting adjustments and non-recurring items) by an average of the = latest=20 fiscal year and the prior year's stockholders' = equity.

EARNINGS = FIVE-YEAR GROWTH=20 RATE:
This item is calculated by using a least squares regression = fit over a=20 3-to-5 year period of earnings per share based on a trailing = four-quarter count.=20 For example, if a stock is currently in its second quarter, the first = period=20 used in this calculation will consist of the sum of = Q2 + Q1 (of the current fiscal year) plus Q4 = +Q3 (of the=20 prior fiscal year). Each successive period will be based on the = next=20 trailing four quarters of earnings per share.

The amount of time used to calculate = the Growth=20 Rate is based on two factors;

Availability of data=20
Positive earnings =

If a stock does not have at least = three years of=20 positive earnings (based on the trailing four-quarter method noted = above), an=20 "N/A" will=20 appear.

The=20 amount of time used for this calculation will consist of at least three = years=20 but no more than five years of positive earnings per share. If a = four-quarter=20 period sum is negative, that period and additional earnings further back = in=20 time, will not be used in the calculation of this data=20 item.

SHARES, COMMON = OUTSTANDING (IN=20 MILLIONS):
The = total number of=20 shares issued by the company minus treasury stock. =

----- Original Message -----

From:=20 Steve = F=20

To: canslim@xmission.com

Sent: Thursday, January 31, = 2002 8:44=20 AM

Subject: [CANSLIM] Oskosh = B'gosh=20 gosha

I could use some help interpreting the DGO graph = for
this=20 stock.

RS - 91
EPS - = 89
Growth=20 Rate 37%

These numbers do not seem to correspond to the 'not=20 so
great' quarterly growth numbers on the bottom of=20 the
graph.

Also, looking at the company profile on = Yahoo=20 shows
almost no debt but the DGO datablock shows 76 %. =

Note=20 the return on Equity 68%, and return on assets
21% listed on Yahoo=20 profile.

Comments =20 = appreciated.

Steve

________________________________________= __________
Do=20 You Yahoo!?
Great stuff seeking new owners in Yahoo! Auctions! =
http://auctions.yahoo.com

-=
-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim". Do=20 not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_009C_01C1AA54.97D55580-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2103 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.