From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2134 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, February 18 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2134 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Belated Welcome Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Re: [CANSLIM] Belated Welcome Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 02:50:14 -0500 From: "Gary A. Snyder" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Belated Welcome Major error in judgment in moment of confidence or greed. Had my eye on this stock because of the fundamentals( example profit margin 49%), best in group per IBD, earning estimates excellent, upward price movement on the chart, earning and sales increasing, profit margin decreasing from 50% to 46% and I put a little note to wait until after Q report given sell offs in this market even on good reports. So report comes out- beat street by 7 cents, gives guidance of increased estimate for next quarter and year. I read, I like. Market opens stock price starts up I buy too much, stock ends day down about 3.5%. I can not believe- market wrong, I'm right- just a minor sell off. Belated news about unknown analyst (to me) downgrading the stock because 8.8 million was changed from 90 day debt vehicle to 4 year loan. Very telling blow in retrospect. In other words company having trouble getting paid on time. Oh did I say down 15% that next day? Now I go into lockup mode like rabbit sitting in middle of expressway. I do remember Barrons article over weekend bringing up old news as they are wont to do (I had subscription to Barrons and hate that weekly even more now) Trashing the company was the last kick that brought ACRT down 45% in one day. So here I am: IBD ratings only a memory, down 55%. Barrons article packed the big punch but analysis very much more to the point. Like the rabbit I'm thinking about getting off the highway. Too early to learn from experience, thing that nags at me is I'm making the same mistakes over and over. I can feel fear but I can't tell if I am doing something greedy until after the fact. Oh by the way you will find me a very open and honest person. gas175k >From: "Tom Worley" >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >To: >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Belated Welcome >Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 12:14:48 -0500 > >Gary, dare I ask what you are doing in ACRT? Looks like the classic falling >knife to me on the chart. > >I have been hit with unexplainable reversals lately, hopefully just a >symptom of this uncertain market. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >AIM: TexWorley >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Gary A. Snyder" >To: >Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 11:24 AM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Belated Welcome > > > > > > > > Gang: > > Wow, thanks for the response. I am going to read and think about these > > e-mails. I just entered this chat line and was getting a lot of >corrections > > because I was sending to majordomo. Also sent a welcome email to him. >Course > > he don't give a darn, just gave me lot of error messages. > > As Won says stocks seem to run (as in go up) together. > > Don't some of these preachy tutorials in "Investor's Corner" give you a >pain > > especially when the example does not qualify under WON teachings? I >still > > read it every day. he he. > > Im saving everything Tom Worsley says: 75% speaks for itself. > > Currently I am very humble having got hit by a freight train with the >symbol > > ACRT. > > I think that no one approach works all the time. A system that works in >this > > environment of trading in a range and sector rotation does not work as >well > > as another approach in a bull market where strong industrial groups stay > > high in the rating system for extended periods of time. Industrial >groups > > strong in a bear market such as defensive groups like Funeral Homes >(talk > > about sick), food/meat products( would you believe it) tank when the >market > > thinks the economy has turned the corner. > > I want to stay ahead of the curve. > > Hope I can add to the common knowledge in a meaningful way. Always open >to > > learn so have been reading the traffic the last week even though I >couldn't > > make contact. Till next time: gas175k > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > _________________________________________________________________ > > Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. _________________________________________________________________ Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 03:11:46 -0500 From: "Gary A. Snyder" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates I for one have read that 70% of stocks in a Bear market goes down and thought I am not buying the market I am buying a selection of very good stocks so 70% of the market going down does not apply. I think of the market as the tide going out as the swimmer is swimming in. He can still reach land if he is a good swimmer but it will be more difficult. gas175k >From: "Katherine Malm" >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >To: >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 09:16:10 -0600 > >Hi jans, > >I wouldn't say that the market direction isn't important. I'd state it a >bit differently---I will not simply "stay out" because the collective index >is behaving a certain way. If you'll bear with me, I'll try and give a >reasoned answer as to why. > >The market is a market of stocks, not a "stock market." If you are trading >an index, then the condition of the stock market index is meaningful >because you are trading "all stocks in the index." Example, trading the >SPY's the QQQ's, an index fund that tracks the market, etc. You are then >trading the "collective whole." But if I take out my Sherlock Holmes spy >glass, I see that under the surface, there are many stocks doing different >things. These represent many companies in many markets with many products >who serve varied economic needs. To say that "all stocks move the same >direction" is to assume that all products, markets, economically sensitive >groups move in exactly the same way at exactly the same time. They do not. >What *does* tend to move in tandem is human emotion. If people "believe" >that equities are a good investment, they will vote with their dollars. If >they "believe" that investing in something else is better, they will move >their money out of the equity markets. So, we have 2 things working against >each other. But....if you are an investor in individual equities, you know >that, despite human emotion, the US markets have *huge* amounts of money >that have to stay invested one way or another....guess what.....these are >institutional monies like pension funds, mutual funds from 401K plans, >insurance company monies, etc. > >Conclusion? There will always be *some* money moving around in the equity >markets. If I choose to put my money there, then I know that there will be >some stocks going up and some stocks going down. In some ways, that means >that the "index" of all stocks has far less meaning to me than the strength >of an individual stock because the "index" hides underlying strength. Now I >have to be able to spot the good stocks. Human emotion and >economic/business factors still play a role here, so using industry >movement *and* stock movement together gives me some markers to help direct >my attention. In CANSLIM, I know there are some underlying assumptions and >so I can make some conclusions based on those: > >--CANSLIM is not a bottom fishing strategy, therefore, find strength and >buy into strength >--CANSLIM is not a "get on the band wagon first" strategy, therefore, find >upward movement early in the move and *follow* it up > >These kinds of strategies are particularly important if monies are in >non-marginable accounts that can't be shorted. In marginable accounts, the >other way to play a choppy, sideways or declining "market" is to turn >CANSLIM upside down and find stocks breaking down in industries breaking >down and short them. But, either way, the strategy is the same. Once the >market trends strongly one direction or another, it just means those >positions found early in a move can be ridden *longer.* For example, stocks >I rode long in late '98-'99 I got to ride for a very long time, stocks I >shorted in early 2000 I got to ride for many weeks. As the bear wore on, >the long and short rides became of shorter and shorter duration. I think of >it as shaking out a table cloth. The first couple of shakes get most of the >debris out, but then you have to shake it like the dickens in shorter and >shorter motions to get those tiny crumbs to let loose. Once the table cloth >is clean, you can put it back on the table and start a new meal. > >Katherine > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Spencer48@aol.com > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 10:49 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > > > Katherine: > > Apropos of your E-mail, then, are you stating that the Market's > direction isn't as important as WON says it is. He says that about 70% >of > stocks will fall, no matter how great their earnings are, during a bear > market. That's why he advises not to go long during a bear. > > I've been taking this advice. Anecdotally, based on my experience >in > the market, his advice regarding the Market's direction and when and >when not > to buy stocks always seemed valid. However, as I understand it, you are > saying that strong stocks (stocks with high and accelerating earnings) >in > strong industries will do well-even during a bear. And how do you >define a > "strong industry"? The top 40% of IBD's 197? > > I wonder if WON has ever done a statistical study on the 70% >failure > rate of strong stocks WHEN the strong stock is in a strong industry? It > would be very interesting to see if the 70% falls, and by how much it >falls. > It would be even more eye-opening if he were able to statistically >correlate > the strength of the industry (during a bear) with the likelihood that >the > stock would rise or fall. > > jans > > > In a message dated 2/16/2002 10:57:52 AM Eastern Standard Time, > kmalm@earthlink.net writes: > > << I don't buy the CANSLIM party line that you should "stay out" of the > market if there aren't 1000's of stocks to choose from. I look for good > stocks with rising relative strength, strategic advantage and good >technical > strength that are members of rising and strong industry groups. I sell >stocks > that break down technically or that are members of a group that is >beginning > to break down. I short stocks/groups in industries that are breaking >down to > take advantage of the prevailing winds. I let the market tell me which >kinds > of stocks are doing well. Whether it's value/growth, small/mid/large >cap, > industry group, I'm agnostic (except that I *do* stay away from super > microcaps). What works, works and I have a methodology that looks for >what's > working. > > The "market" is nothing more than a market of stocks. Too many people >focus > on what's *not* working and miss the many great opportunities that are >out > there. One of my mentors always says "when the market speaks, have big >ears." > I say, "when a stock and an industry speaks, have big ears." As I see >it, too > many folks are still focused on what *was* working during the last Great >Bull > market. This is the history of markets... >> > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > _________________________________________________________________ Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 03:12:33 -0500 From: "Gary A. Snyder" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates I for one have read that 70% of stocks in a Bear market goes down and thought I am not buying the market I am buying a selection of very good stocks so 70% of the market going down does not apply. I think of the market as the tide going out as the swimmer is swimming in. He can still reach land if he is a good swimmer but it will be more difficult. gas175k >From: "Katherine Malm" >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >To: >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 09:16:10 -0600 > >Hi jans, > >I wouldn't say that the market direction isn't important. I'd state it a >bit differently---I will not simply "stay out" because the collective index >is behaving a certain way. If you'll bear with me, I'll try and give a >reasoned answer as to why. > >The market is a market of stocks, not a "stock market." If you are trading >an index, then the condition of the stock market index is meaningful >because you are trading "all stocks in the index." Example, trading the >SPY's the QQQ's, an index fund that tracks the market, etc. You are then >trading the "collective whole." But if I take out my Sherlock Holmes spy >glass, I see that under the surface, there are many stocks doing different >things. These represent many companies in many markets with many products >who serve varied economic needs. To say that "all stocks move the same >direction" is to assume that all products, markets, economically sensitive >groups move in exactly the same way at exactly the same time. They do not. >What *does* tend to move in tandem is human emotion. If people "believe" >that equities are a good investment, they will vote with their dollars. If >they "believe" that investing in something else is better, they will move >their money out of the equity markets. So, we have 2 things working against >each other. But....if you are an investor in individual equities, you know >that, despite human emotion, the US markets have *huge* amounts of money >that have to stay invested one way or another....guess what.....these are >institutional monies like pension funds, mutual funds from 401K plans, >insurance company monies, etc. > >Conclusion? There will always be *some* money moving around in the equity >markets. If I choose to put my money there, then I know that there will be >some stocks going up and some stocks going down. In some ways, that means >that the "index" of all stocks has far less meaning to me than the strength >of an individual stock because the "index" hides underlying strength. Now I >have to be able to spot the good stocks. Human emotion and >economic/business factors still play a role here, so using industry >movement *and* stock movement together gives me some markers to help direct >my attention. In CANSLIM, I know there are some underlying assumptions and >so I can make some conclusions based on those: > >--CANSLIM is not a bottom fishing strategy, therefore, find strength and >buy into strength >--CANSLIM is not a "get on the band wagon first" strategy, therefore, find >upward movement early in the move and *follow* it up > >These kinds of strategies are particularly important if monies are in >non-marginable accounts that can't be shorted. In marginable accounts, the >other way to play a choppy, sideways or declining "market" is to turn >CANSLIM upside down and find stocks breaking down in industries breaking >down and short them. But, either way, the strategy is the same. Once the >market trends strongly one direction or another, it just means those >positions found early in a move can be ridden *longer.* For example, stocks >I rode long in late '98-'99 I got to ride for a very long time, stocks I >shorted in early 2000 I got to ride for many weeks. As the bear wore on, >the long and short rides became of shorter and shorter duration. I think of >it as shaking out a table cloth. The first couple of shakes get most of the >debris out, but then you have to shake it like the dickens in shorter and >shorter motions to get those tiny crumbs to let loose. Once the table cloth >is clean, you can put it back on the table and start a new meal. > >Katherine > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Spencer48@aol.com > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 10:49 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates > > > Katherine: > > Apropos of your E-mail, then, are you stating that the Market's > direction isn't as important as WON says it is. He says that about 70% >of > stocks will fall, no matter how great their earnings are, during a bear > market. That's why he advises not to go long during a bear. > > I've been taking this advice. Anecdotally, based on my experience >in > the market, his advice regarding the Market's direction and when and >when not > to buy stocks always seemed valid. However, as I understand it, you are > saying that strong stocks (stocks with high and accelerating earnings) >in > strong industries will do well-even during a bear. And how do you >define a > "strong industry"? The top 40% of IBD's 197? > > I wonder if WON has ever done a statistical study on the 70% >failure > rate of strong stocks WHEN the strong stock is in a strong industry? It > would be very interesting to see if the 70% falls, and by how much it >falls. > It would be even more eye-opening if he were able to statistically >correlate > the strength of the industry (during a bear) with the likelihood that >the > stock would rise or fall. > > jans > > > In a message dated 2/16/2002 10:57:52 AM Eastern Standard Time, > kmalm@earthlink.net writes: > > << I don't buy the CANSLIM party line that you should "stay out" of the > market if there aren't 1000's of stocks to choose from. I look for good > stocks with rising relative strength, strategic advantage and good >technical > strength that are members of rising and strong industry groups. I sell >stocks > that break down technically or that are members of a group that is >beginning > to break down. I short stocks/groups in industries that are breaking >down to > take advantage of the prevailing winds. I let the market tell me which >kinds > of stocks are doing well. Whether it's value/growth, small/mid/large >cap, > industry group, I'm agnostic (except that I *do* stay away from super > microcaps). What works, works and I have a methodology that looks for >what's > working. > > The "market" is nothing more than a market of stocks. Too many people >focus > on what's *not* working and miss the many great opportunities that are >out > there. One of my mentors always says "when the market speaks, have big >ears." > I say, "when a stock and an industry speaks, have big ears." As I see >it, too > many folks are still focused on what *was* working during the last Great >Bull > market. This is the history of markets... >> > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > _________________________________________________________________ MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 06:18:37 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Belated Welcome Hi Gary, I understand now, and sympathize. I did something similar on ELTE, waited for the earnings, bought after it gapped down 25% on the news despite rosy forecasts by the company. It is still sliding, so I am down 10% and considering pulling the plug on it. This is a harsh market in which to be invested at all. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Gary A. Snyder" To: Sent: Monday, February 18, 2002 2:50 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Belated Welcome > > > > > Major error in judgment in moment of confidence or greed. Had my eye on this > stock because of the fundamentals( example profit margin 49%), best in group > per IBD, earning estimates excellent, upward price movement on the chart, > earning and sales increasing, profit margin decreasing from 50% to 46% and I > put a little note to wait until after Q report given sell offs in this > market even on good reports. So report comes out- beat street by 7 cents, > gives guidance of increased estimate for next quarter and year. I read, I > like. Market opens stock price starts up I buy too much, stock ends day down > about 3.5%. I can not believe- market wrong, I'm right- just a minor sell > off. Belated news about unknown analyst (to me) downgrading the stock > because 8.8 million was changed from 90 day debt vehicle to 4 year loan. > Very telling blow in retrospect. In other words company having trouble > getting paid on time. Oh did I say down 15% that next day? Now I go into > lockup mode like rabbit sitting in middle of expressway. I do remember > Barrons article over weekend bringing up old news as they are wont to do (I > had subscription to Barrons and hate that weekly even more now) Trashing the > company was the last kick that brought ACRT down 45% in one day. So here I > am: IBD ratings only a memory, down 55%. Barrons article packed the big > punch but analysis very much more to the point. Like the rabbit I'm thinking > about getting off the highway. Too early to learn from experience, thing > that nags at me is I'm making the same mistakes over and over. I can feel > fear but I can't tell if I am doing something greedy until after the fact. > Oh by the way you will find me a very open and honest person. gas175k > > > >From: "Tom Worley" > >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >To: > >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Belated Welcome > >Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 12:14:48 -0500 > > > >Gary, dare I ask what you are doing in ACRT? Looks like the classic falling > >knife to me on the chart. > > > >I have been hit with unexplainable reversals lately, hopefully just a > >symptom of this uncertain market. > > > >Tom Worley > >stkguru@netside.net > >AIM: TexWorley > >----- Original Message ----- > >From: "Gary A. Snyder" > >To: > >Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 11:24 AM > >Subject: [CANSLIM] Belated Welcome > > > > > > > > > > > > > Gang: > > > Wow, thanks for the response. I am going to read and think about these > > > e-mails. I just entered this chat line and was getting a lot of > >corrections > > > because I was sending to majordomo. Also sent a welcome email to him. > >Course > > > he don't give a darn, just gave me lot of error messages. > > > As Won says stocks seem to run (as in go up) together. > > > Don't some of these preachy tutorials in "Investor's Corner" give you a > >pain > > > especially when the example does not qualify under WON teachings? I > >still > > > read it every day. he he. > > > Im saving everything Tom Worsley says: 75% speaks for itself. > > > Currently I am very humble having got hit by a freight train with the > >symbol > > > ACRT. > > > I think that no one approach works all the time. A system that works in > >this > > > environment of trading in a range and sector rotation does not work as > >well > > > as another approach in a bull market where strong industrial groups stay > > > high in the rating system for extended periods of time. Industrial > >groups > > > strong in a bear market such as defensive groups like Funeral Homes > >(talk > > > about sick), food/meat products( would you believe it) tank when the > >market > > > thinks the economy has turned the corner. > > > I want to stay ahead of the curve. > > > Hope I can add to the common knowledge in a meaningful way. Always open > >to > > > learn so have been reading the traffic the last week even though I > >couldn't > > > make contact. Till next time: gas175k > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > _________________________________________________________________ > > > Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > > > > > >- > >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > _________________________________________________________________ > Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 07:05:46 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_001E_01C1B84A.AFEA1990 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Thanks for the defense, Katherine, My claim of 76% return last year is a simple calculation of the net gain = of the total portfolio divided by the value of the portfolio at the = start of the year. If David chooses to suggest I am lying, I am willing = to post my year end statement showing the net gain for the year (with = the acct # and SS # concealed). I will, of course, also graciously = accept his public apology. My only "self controlled" account was my IRA, so there was no tax issue. = My expenses for DGO and other net services was not considered in the = calculation. I was forced to liquidate my shares in my Employee Option Plan in late = summer, and converted the Euros to US $ and brought them home (US = residents were not permitted to swap into shares of the acquiring = company, Allianz, a major insurer). Turned out to be a good thing as = Allianz shares got sliced in half by September 11 attacks. I did not = re-invest this money as I planned to use it for major renovations on my = house. Since that plan has now been postponed, I fully invested this = money on margin a few weeks ago. I did not consider it as "investable" = money during 2001. I worked as an active broker, without a single customer complaint, for = eight years handling well over 200 clients. The entire relationship, = usually conducted over the phone without ever having met the client, was = totally based on trust. I learned over 4 decades ago it was easier to = tell the truth and not waste energy trying to keep the story "straight". = My personal accounts were always open to my clients to review if they = wished. In 8 years, not a single one ever requested this. I know of no = other stock broker that ever made a similar offer to his clients. Of = course, they were paying me a commission, unlike David. Because I have worked with WON's staff and products and CANSLIM for so = many years, I understand the rules pretty well, and recognize when I am = consciously violating them. It is for this reason that I do not post my = stock picks, other than as a disclosure when they make the WWW list. = What I do in my personal investing works for me, and I am comfortable = with the risks I take. But I have repeatedly said that most investors = should stay away from both small/micro cap stocks, as well as low = priced. That I do both is a testament to my level of risk taking, as = well as understanding of these type investments. It is also why I put in = 4 hours or so a day on the net, in addition to my 11-12 hour work day. Best regards to you and please keep up all the quality posts you = generously give us, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 10:31 PM Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Hi David, Thanks for the kind words and I'd like to speak up in Tom's defense. = He is square and straightforward about what he does at all times. He = learned from WON early in his career and he has learned to mold CANSLIM = to his personal preferences. I can't say that I agree with everything = Tom does only in the sense that it is not "right for me." But that is = far different than judging whether or not it is successful and/or "right = for him." With respect to telling returns, I think this is a *very* personal = issue. I, for example, look upon returns and absolutely *anything* to do = with what positions I am currently holding, what stocks I am looking at, = what % winners vs. losers, etc. as extremely personal. I put it right up = there with a question like "what's your salary" or "what's your net = worth." I was recently hammered by several folks when I made a = presentation in Dallas and would not reveal such things. I figure it's = my business and mine alone. There's absolutely no way to win when such = things are revealed. Either people believe that you are boasting, not = telling the truth, that your earnings are paltry by comparison to their = own, etc. etc. On the other hand, if someone reveals their returns, I = figure that's their business as well. I view this as a personal choice = and make no judgments either way. It's a tough market out there. In the = end, I find it's far more important at the end of the day to be able to = ask myself "did I do everything possible to earn the best returns that = I am able." To me, if I can answer "yes" to that question, then I have = had a successful day. I applaud Tom's returns, but I applaud his = willingness to admit that his returns in '99 would have been more = substantial if he'd focused on his portfolio with the same intensity = that he did in '01. *That's* the message I take away from his statement. --Katherine While we're on the subject of returns, here's something that I wrote = during a discussion over this very issue: Returns.What Does That Mean? I never make assumptions about the numbers people give when they = specify returns. Here are some examples as to why. For all examples I'll = use a simple total portfolio number of $100K at the beginning of the = year. All percentages and dollar amounts are used only for the purpose = of demonstration. (1) Invested vs. Investable monies: - Statement: I made 50% last year.=20 - Person A makes 50% on *invested* monies. Lets say A invests $10K = and earns 50%. Total ending value =3D $15K. But what about the $90K that = wasn't invested? Let's say it made 5% in bonds and/or cash. That means = it's now worth $94,500. Total ending portfolio =3D $109,500. Total = compounded returns for the year =3D 0.095%. That's less than 1%. = Certainly doesn't make the same statement as "I made 50%." - Person B makes 50% on *investable* monies. B invests $50K in = bonds and/or cash. Say it earns 5%. Ending value =3D $52,500. The = remaining is invested and earns enough so that the total portfolio earns = 50%. That means the ending portfolio is $150,000. Invested monies = accounted for $97,500 of this ending value. This means that B turned = $50K into $97.5K by the end of the year through active investing. Total = returns on *invested* monies =3D 95%.=20 - Part of effective money management and risk control is to = determine how much of your investable dollars you are willing to risk. = Your ability to consistently earn a return on invested dollars will = allow you to increase the percentage of investable dollars. Don't assume = that every person who tells you they earned 50% is able to do this = consistently. And certainly don't assume that all of their investable = dollars earned 50%. Also keep in mind that there are actually people who = would rather understate their returns than overstate them. (2) Risk - Statement: I earned 50% with this system. - Person A earns 50% on invested dollars. Maximum drawdown on = total portfolio -50%. Person A also margined 100% of their account to = generate these returns. The average beta for the portfolio was 3 times = the market average. - Person B earns 50% on invested dollars. Maximum drawdown -10%. = They did not margin and the average beta of the portfolio was 1.5 times = the market average. This person by far earned the higher risk adjusted = return. - A good trader is able to consistently generate returns with the = least amount of risk. (3) Open positions at year's end - Statement: I earned 50% last year. - Person A had 5 open positions on 12/31 that accounted for = 15% of that gain. On January 15th of the following year, the market dive = bombed and they were forced to sell at a loss. - Person B had 5 open positions on 12/31 that accounted for = 15% of potential gains. Until these gains are monetized, they do not = include them in the total for the year. - Intermediate term investors will often carry a position for = several weeks to several months. Until you sell the position (monetize = it), the gains are fairy dust. The bank might be willing to lend you = money against the value of your assets, but these dollars are not "real" = until they are in your pocket. If you have any doubts, go ask Barry = Ebbers of Worldcom why he had to sell stock to satisfy the bank. (4) Average vs Compounded returns - Statement: I earn 50% on average. - Person A earned 200% one year and (-100%) the next. Average = return is (200-100)/2 =3D 50%. Sound impressive? They're flat broke. - Person B earned an average 50% compounded return over the last 5 = years. That means that if they started with $100K year one, they now = have $100K*(1.50)^5 =3D $759,375. (Even after 2 years, they have = $225,000) (5) Annualized vs Actual - Statement: I earned 50% on that trade. - Person A made an investment during the year that earned = 12.5% in 2 weeks. They have annualized this as 12.5% * (10days/250days) = =3D 50%. - Person B made an investment that returned 50% in two months. = They have an annualized return on this investment of approximately 50% * = (40days/250days) =3D 800% (6) Personal Ownership v. Professional Management - Statement: I earned 50% last year. - Person A has 10% of their money in an account that they manage = personally. The remaining 90% is with a money manger. They earned 50% on = only 10% of their money. - Person B takes responsibility for 100% of their investable = assets. They earned 50% on 100% of those investable assets. (7) Gross vs. Net Returns - Statement: I earned 50% last year. - Person A made 50% *gross* returns on investable assets. = Their ending portfolio was $150,000. This does not include the $2K they = spent purchasing various trading systems nor commissions paid during the = year to generate these returns. A treats their investments like a hobby = and spends money freely to find "a better system." - Person B made 50% *net* returns on investable assets. They = spent $2K in commissions; subscriptions to business and investing = magazines, newspapers and tools; investing books; investing seminars and = the associated costs to attend these seminars. B treats their = investments like a business and evaluates all tools and expenditures as = to how they generate a return on investment. (8) Taxable vs Tax Deferred Account/Before vs After Tax - Statement: I earned 50% last year. - Person A earned 50% in their tax deferred IRA. - Person B earned 50% *after taxes* in their taxable account. Conclusion: Numbers alone don't tell you a darned thing. --Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: David Squires=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 8:45 PM Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >>Your comments about EPIQ as a "big winner" in the portfolio remind = me of comments I often hear from others when we have discussions about = the big winners in our portfolios. On one hand, it really bugs me to = hear people say "well, yeah, of course you had great returns, you had = XXXX an YYYY....you were just lucky." Excuse me? I found XXXX and YYYY = using the same methodical diligence I apply to all my buys. The = difference is, these guys never triggered sell rules like all the = others. Last Fall, I listened to a presentation by Kevin Marder, a hedge = fund manager and a CANSLIM-style investor. He said the same thing that = I've heard from other successful investors. "At the end of each year I = give my accountant a list of my trades for tax purposes. On that list = are a bunch of trades with very small losses. Also on that list are some = really big gains that were responsible for most of my returns for the = year. This happens every year without exception."<< Katherine, You are a true gem...my hat is off to you and eye open to everything = you write...from my experience....you indeed "get it". However, I'm not = so sure Tom should be cast in the light of Kevin Marder. What's the = point of telling everyone what you netted last year??......it's a = totally unverifiable assertion and only fodder for ones online ego. = Spare me. It still amazes me the proclaimed master of the CANSLIM = list,...."routinely violates CANSLIM rules" and everyone just sits = there. I guess everyone's numb from a 2 year bear raid. DSquires ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 10:57 AM Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Hi Tom, Your comments about EPIQ as a "big winner" in the portfolio remind = me of comments I often hear from others when we have discussions about = the big winners in our portfolios. On one hand, it really bugs me to = hear people say "well, yeah, of course you had great returns, you had = XXXX an YYYY....you were just lucky." Excuse me? I found XXXX and YYYY = using the same methodical diligence I apply to all my buys. The = difference is, these guys never triggered sell rules like all the = others. Last Fall, I listened to a presentation by Kevin Marder, a hedge = fund manager and a CANSLIM-style investor. He said the same thing that = I've heard from other successful investors. "At the end of each year I = give my accountant a list of my trades for tax purposes. On that list = are a bunch of trades with very small losses. Also on that list are some = really big gains that were responsible for most of my returns for the = year. This happens every year without exception." On the other hand, a comment such as "you were just lucky" makes = me smile and nod in agreement, because I define luck as "being prepared = when the opportunity arises and being willing to seize it." Yes, big = winners are about luck in that sense. Finally, one of my favorite quotes = and one that always stays in view at my desk: "Opportunities are usually disguised as hard work, so most people = don't recognize them." --Anne Landers Here's to "big winners" and your continued "good luck"! Cheers, Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 3:34 PM Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Your memory is pretty good, altho I consider buying small caps = as much closer to classic CANSLIM rules for "S" than IBD or WON = currently pushes. I wasn't losing money during the roaring bulls, just not making = what I could. But that was not the fault of my application of CANSLIM, = it was a direct consequence of total neglect of my portfolio due = dedication and hours spent on my day job. But even with total neglect, I still = managed about 12% or so without trading, so at least better than a money market. You are correct also that EPIQ was a major contributor to my = profits in 2001, and I expect it to continue contributing in 2002. But I = finished the year with every stock I owned up for the year, and with minimal = trading. I only bought two new ones in 2001, the rest I had owned from = prior years. So far in 2002, I have added 6 new ones, and sold one (merger = announced). Altho three of the new ones are presently down, I am still up a little = overall. And having fun. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley ----- Original Message ----- From: "esetser" To: Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 11:01 AM Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates Be careful here, Tom has his own special breed of CANSLIM, and = it seems that his returns have NOT been a good indicator of average = returns in the group. Unless I'm mistaken, Tom was losing money or breaking = even back in the roaring bull, so maybe it was just his turn!! Tom does at least the following different from my approach (just = from memory): 1 - Microcaps only (below the minimum recommended by WON) (S?) 2 - Buys in the base before the breakout (Needs to because of 1) 3 - Doesn't use Industry Group Strength as a leader/laggard = indicator (I) 4 - Buys in all markets (M) >From my perspective, he violates the normal rules for S, I, and = M. However, Tom does admit to this, and doesn't even generally post = his selections due to these variations. Given the differences, I think it should be expected that Tom's = performance over a given year will vary from many of us. (And there is that = one stock that has appreciated several times his original investment that = is impacting the results too!) One other note. >From my perspective, Tom's value to the group = is his willingness to take the time to review most anyone's suggestions = and selections and give great detail in his responses. His general = approach may not follow CANSLIM exactly, but his postings to the group do = following WON quite closely. He is our master educator on the technique, = and gives a lot of time and effort to the group. FWIW, I ended up 2001 with about a 13% loss and am down about 6% = more this year so far. Presently, I am only 25% invested with one = position. I am not really responding on the group much, since I do not feel I = have the experience to short, and I am waiting for "M" to clear up before = new purchases. At 11:36 AM 2/16/02 +0100, you wrote: >I think Tom bend only one rule --> stay out of the market if = there is a >downtrend in the overall market. > >But as I said, if you choose small caps and or IGs that are = going up, no >problem making money on the long side. >Just look on the builders or on the gold stocks latley ... > >BUT NEVER, NEVER buy stocks when the market and the IG is down. >I have not seen one example where a member of the group does = not break down >then (besides its a small cap) as well. > >Some IGs are just setting up a bull market for its members no = matter what >the market is doing. > >> -----Urspr=FCngliche Nachricht----- >> Von: Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] >> Gesendet am: Saturday, February 16, 2002 6:19 AM >> An: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> While I routinely violate CANSLIM rules, nonetheless my = entire process is >heavily based in CANSLIM. And I netted 76% for the full year, = so yeah, I >made a net profit. >> >> Tom Worley >> stkguru@netside.net >> AIM: TexWorley >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: David Squires >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 12:11 AM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> haven't shorted in years, fully invested year round, made = lots of $$ >last year, and profitable so far this year (including my fully = margined >account). >> >> >>fully invested year round, made lots of $$ last year<< >> >> You were fully invested last year long and made a net = profit? You >better call George Soros! BTW, is this even remotely CANSLIM. >> >> DSquires >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Tom Worley >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 10:47 PM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> haven't shorted in years, fully invested year round, made = lots of $$ >last year, and profitable so far this year (including my fully = margined >account). >> >> Tom Worley >> stkguru@netside.net >> AIM: TexWorley >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Dan Forant >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 8:03 PM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> Of course it's absurd. If anyone's been in the market = for the past >year and hasn't shorted and made $$, they are either very lucky = or far >better than the average investor. There was no shortage of = stocks to short >in TC2000 and candlesticks. >> >> L8ter >> DanF >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Ian >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 11:13 AM >> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> I find it almost absurd that WON discourages = shorting. Almost all >of WON's ideas appear to have originated with Jesse Livermore, = who made the >bulk of his money on the short side. The rules for selling a = big CANSLIM >winner make for perfect short candidates. Although selling a = failed >breakout as it returns into its base is NOT typically a good = short >candidate. JMHO. >> >> Ian >> >> >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Rob Miller >> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >> Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 6:40 AM >> Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy Candidates >> >> >> Even if we have a FTD from here, I see few stocks = worth buying. > However, my short list is overflowing. The only moderately = attractive >stocks I see on the long side are those already in an uptrend = that are >riding their lower channel. >> >> Is shorting considered off limits for this list? I = know that >WON discourages it, but he also claimed to make good money from = shorts in >HTMMIS. As I understand it, he discourages it as a medium for = the masses, >nor necessarily for everyone. >> >> Rob >> << Datei: ATT00014.htm >> - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_001E_01C1B84A.AFEA1990 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Thanks for the defense, Katherine,
 
My claim of 76% return last year is a simple = calculation=20 of the net gain of the total portfolio divided by the value of the = portfolio at=20 the start of the year. If David chooses to suggest I am lying, I am = willing to=20 post my year end statement showing the net gain for the year (with the = acct #=20 and SS # concealed). I will, of course, also graciously accept his = public=20 apology.
 
My only "self controlled" account was my IRA, so = there was=20 no tax issue. My expenses for DGO and other net services was not = considered in=20 the calculation.
 
I was forced to liquidate my shares in my = Employee Option=20 Plan in late summer, and converted the Euros to US $ and brought them = home (US=20 residents were not permitted to swap into shares of the acquiring = company,=20 Allianz, a major insurer). Turned out to be a good thing as Allianz = shares got=20 sliced in half by September 11 attacks. I did not re-invest this money = as I=20 planned to use it for major renovations on my house. Since that plan has = now=20 been postponed, I fully invested this money on margin a few weeks ago. I = did not=20 consider it as "investable" money during 2001.
 
I worked as an active broker, without a single = customer=20 complaint, for eight years handling well over 200 clients. The entire=20 relationship, usually conducted over the phone without ever having met = the=20 client, was totally based on trust. I learned over 4 decades ago it was = easier=20 to tell the truth and not waste energy trying to keep the story=20 "straight".  My personal accounts were always open to my clients to = review=20 if they wished. In 8 years, not a single one ever requested this. I know = of no=20 other stock broker that ever made a similar offer to his clients. Of = course,=20 they were paying me a commission, unlike David.
 
Because I have worked with WON's staff and = products and=20 CANSLIM for so many years, I understand the rules pretty well, and = recognize=20 when I am consciously violating them. It is for this reason that I do = not post=20 my stock picks, other than as a disclosure when they make the WWW list. = What I=20 do in my personal investing works for me, and I am comfortable with the = risks I=20 take. But I have repeatedly said that most investors should stay away = from both=20 small/micro cap stocks, as well as low priced. That I do both is a = testament to=20 my level of risk taking, as well as understanding of these type = investments. It=20 is also why I put in 4 hours or so a day on the net, in addition to my = 11-12=20 hour work day.
 
Best regards to you and please keep up all the = quality=20 posts you generously give us,
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 = 10:31=20 PM
Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] Lack = of Buy=20 Candidates

Hi David,
 
Thanks for the kind words and I'd like to speak up in Tom's = defense. He=20 is square and straightforward about what he does at all times. He = learned from=20 WON early in his career and he has learned to mold CANSLIM to his = personal=20 preferences. I can't say that I agree with everything Tom does only in = the=20 sense that it is not "right for me." But that is far different than = judging=20 whether or not it is successful and/or "right for him."
 
With respect to telling returns, I think this is a *very* = personal issue.=20 I, for example, look upon returns and absolutely *anything* to do with = what=20 positions I am currently holding, what stocks I am looking at, what % = winners=20 vs. losers, etc. as extremely personal. I put it right up there with a = question like "what's your salary" or "what's your net worth." I was = recently=20 hammered by several folks when I made a presentation in Dallas and = would not=20 reveal such things. I figure it's my business and mine alone. There's=20 absolutely no way to win when such things are revealed. Either people = believe=20 that you are boasting, not telling the truth, that your earnings are = paltry by=20 comparison to their own, etc. etc. On the other hand, if someone = reveals their=20 returns, I figure that's their business as well. I view this as a = personal=20 choice and make no judgments either way. It's a tough market out = there. In the=20 end, I find it's far more important at the end of the day to be able = to ask=20 myself  "did I do everything possible to earn the best returns = that I am=20 able." To me, if I can answer "yes" to that question, then I have had = a=20 successful day. I applaud Tom's returns, but I applaud his willingness = to=20 admit that his returns in '99 would have been more substantial if he'd = focused=20 on his portfolio with the same intensity that he did in '01. *That's* = the=20 message I take away from his statement.
 
--Katherine
 
While we're on the subject of returns, here's something that I = wrote=20 during a discussion over this very issue:

Returns=85What Does That=20 Mean?

I never make assumptions about the numbers people = give when=20 they specify returns. Here are some examples as to why. For all = examples I'll=20 use a simple total portfolio number of $100K at the beginning of the = year. All=20 percentages and dollar amounts are used only for the purpose of=20 demonstration.

(1) Invested vs. Investable monies:

-           =20 Statement: I made 50% last year.

-    =20 Person A makes 50% on *invested* monies. Lets say A invests = $10K and=20 earns 50%. Total ending value =3D $15K. But what about the $90K that = wasn't=20 invested? Let's say it made 5% in bonds and/or cash. That means it's = now worth=20 $94,500. Total ending portfolio =3D $109,500. Total compounded returns = for the=20 year =3D 0.095%. That's less than 1%. Certainly doesn't make the same = statement=20 as "I made 50%."

-    =20 Person B makes 50% on *investable* monies. B invests $50K in = bonds=20 and/or cash. Say it earns 5%. Ending value =3D $52,500. The remaining = is=20 invested and earns enough so that the total portfolio earns 50%. That = means=20 the ending portfolio is $150,000. Invested monies accounted for = $97,500 of=20 this ending value. This means that B turned $50K into $97.5K by the = end of the=20 year through active investing. Total returns on *invested* monies =3D=20 95%. 

-    =20 Part of effective money management and risk control is to = determine how=20 much of your investable dollars you are willing to risk. Your ability = to=20 consistently earn a return on invested dollars will allow you to = increase=20 the percentage of investable dollars. Don't assume that every person = who tells=20 you they earned 50% is able to do this consistently. And certainly = don't=20 assume that all of their investable dollars earned 50%. Also keep in = mind that=20 there are actually people who would rather understate their returns = than=20 overstate them.

(2) Risk

-           =20 Statement: I earned 50% with this system.

-    =20 Person A earns 50% on invested dollars. Maximum drawdown on = total=20 portfolio -50%. Person A also margined 100% of their account to = generate these=20 returns. The average beta for the portfolio was 3 times the market=20 average.

-    =20 Person B earns 50% on invested dollars. Maximum drawdown -10%. = They did=20 not margin and the average beta of the portfolio was 1.5 times the = market=20 average. This person by far earned the higher risk adjusted = return.

-    =20 A good trader is able to consistently generate returns with the = least=20 amount of risk.

(3) Open positions at year's end

 -        =20 Statement: I earned 50% last year.

-        =20 Person A had 5 open positions on 12/31 that accounted for 15% = of that=20 gain. On January 15th of the following year, the market = dive bombed=20 and they were forced to sell at a loss.

-        =20 Person B had 5 open positions on 12/31 that accounted for 15% = of=20 potential gains. Until these gains are monetized, they do not include = them in=20 the total for the year.

-        =20 Intermediate term investors will often carry a position for = several=20 weeks to several months. Until you sell the position (monetize it), = the gains=20 are fairy dust. The bank might be willing to lend you money against = the value=20 of your assets, but these dollars are not =93real=94 until they are in = your=20 pocket. If you have any doubts, go ask Barry Ebbers of Worldcom why he = had to=20 sell stock to satisfy the bank.

(4) Average vs Compounded returns

-           =20 Statement: I earn 50% on average.

-    =20 Person A earned 200% one year and (-100%) the next. Average = return is=20 (200-100)/2 =3D 50%. Sound impressive? They're flat broke.

-    =20 Person B earned an average 50% compounded return over the last = 5 years.=20 That means that if they started with $100K year one, they now have=20 $100K*(1.50)^5 =3D $759,375. (Even after 2 years, they have = $225,000)

(5) Annualized vs Actual

 -        =20 Statement: I earned 50% on that trade.

-        =20 Person A made an investment during the year that earned 12.5% = in 2=20 weeks. They have annualized this as 12.5% * (10days/250days) =3D = 50%.

-        =20 Person B made an investment that returned 50% in two months. = They have=20 an annualized return on this investment of approximately 50% *=20 (40days/250days) =3D 800%

(6) Personal Ownership v. Professional = Management

-           =20 Statement: I earned 50% last year.

-    =20 Person A has 10% of their money in an account that they manage=20 personally. The remaining 90% is with a money manger. They earned 50% = on only=20 10% of their money.

-    =20 Person B takes responsibility for 100% of their investable = assets. They=20 earned 50% on 100% of those investable assets.

(7) Gross vs. Net Returns

-        =20 Statement: I earned 50% last year.

-        =20 Person A made 50% *gross* returns on investable assets. = Their=20 ending portfolio was $150,000. This does not include the $2K they = spent=20 purchasing various trading systems nor commissions paid during the = year to=20 generate these returns. A treats their investments like a hobby and = spends=20 money freely to find =93a better system.=94

-        =20 Person B made 50% *net* returns on investable assets. = They spent=20 $2K in commissions; subscriptions to business and investing magazines, = newspapers and tools; investing books; investing seminars and the = associated=20 costs to attend these seminars. B treats their investments like a = business and=20 evaluates all tools and expenditures as to how they generate a return = on=20 investment.

(8) Taxable vs Tax Deferred Account/Before vs = After Tax

-        =20 Statement: I earned 50% last year.

-        =20 Person A earned 50% in their tax deferred IRA.

-   =20 Person B earned 50% *after taxes* in their taxable=20 account.
 
Conclusion:=20 Numbers alone don't tell you a darned thing.
 
--Katherine
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 David=20 Squires
Sent: Sunday, February 17, = 2002 8:45=20 PM
Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] = Lack of Buy=20 Candidates

>>Your comments about EPIQ as a "big winner" in the = portfolio=20 remind me of comments I often hear from others when we have = discussions=20 about the big winners in our portfolios. On one hand, it = really bugs me=20 to hear people say "well, yeah, of course you had great returns, you = had=20 XXXX an YYYY....you were just lucky." Excuse me? I found XXXX and = YYYY using=20 the same methodical diligence I apply to all my buys. The difference = is,=20 these guys never triggered sell rules like all the others. Last = Fall, I=20 listened to a presentation by Kevin Marder, a hedge fund manager and = a=20 CANSLIM-style investor. He said the same thing that I've heard from = other=20 successful investors. "At the end of each year I give my accountant = a list=20 of my trades for tax purposes. On that list are a bunch of trades = with very=20 small losses. Also on that list are some really big gains that were=20 responsible for most of my returns for the year. This happens every = year=20 without exception."<<
 
Katherine,
 
You are a true gem...my hat is off to you and eye open to = everything=20 you write...from my experience....you indeed "get it". However, I'm = not so=20 sure Tom should be cast in the light of Kevin Marder. What's the = point of=20 telling everyone what you netted last year??......it's a totally=20 unverifiable assertion and only fodder for ones online ego. Spare = me. It=20 still amazes me the proclaimed master of the CANSLIM = list,...."routinely=20 violates CANSLIM rules" and everyone just sits there. I guess = everyone's=20 numb from a 2 year bear raid.
 
DSquires
 
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Sunday, February 17, = 2002 10:57=20 AM
Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] = Lack of=20 Buy Candidates

Hi Tom,
 
Your comments about EPIQ as a "big winner" in the portfolio = remind me=20 of comments I often hear from others when we have discussions = about the=20 big winners in our portfolios. On one hand, it really bugs me = to hear=20 people say "well, yeah, of course you had great returns, you had = XXXX an=20 YYYY....you were just lucky." Excuse me? I found XXXX and YYYY = using the=20 same methodical diligence I apply to all my buys. The difference = is, these=20 guys never triggered sell rules like all the others. Last Fall, I = listened=20 to a presentation by Kevin Marder, a hedge fund manager and a=20 CANSLIM-style investor. He said the same thing that I've heard = from other=20 successful investors. "At the end of each year I give my = accountant a list=20 of my trades for tax purposes. On that list are a bunch of trades = with=20 very small losses. Also on that list are some really big gains = that were=20 responsible for most of my returns for the year. This happens = every year=20 without exception."
 
On the other hand, a comment such as "you were just lucky" = makes me=20 smile and nod in agreement, because I define luck as "being = prepared when=20 the opportunity arises and being willing to seize it." Yes, big = winners=20 are about luck in that sense. Finally, one of my favorite quotes = and one=20 that always stays in view at my desk:
 
"Opportunities are usually disguised as hard work, so most = people=20 don't recognize them." --Anne Landers
 
Here's to "big winners" and your continued "good luck"!
 
Cheers,
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Tom=20 Worley
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Saturday, February = 16, 2002=20 3:34 PM
Subject: Re: AW: = [CANSLIM] Lack of=20 Buy Candidates

Your memory is pretty good, altho I consider = buying small=20 caps as much
closer to classic CANSLIM rules for "S" than IBD = or WON=20 currently pushes.

I wasn't losing money during the = roaring bulls,=20 just not making what I
could. But that was not the fault of = my=20 application of CANSLIM, it was a
direct consequence of total = neglect=20 of my portfolio due dedication and hours
spent on my day job. = But=20 even with total neglect, I still managed about 12%
or so = without=20 trading, so at least better than a money market.

You are = correct=20 also that EPIQ was a major contributor to my profits in
2001, = and I=20 expect it to continue contributing in 2002. But I finished = the
year=20 with every stock I owned up for the year, and with minimal = trading.=20 I
only bought two new ones in 2001, the rest I had owned from = prior=20 years. So
far in 2002, I have added 6 new ones, and sold one = (merger=20 announced). Altho
three of the new ones are presently down, I = am=20 still up a little overall.
And having fun.

Tom = Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM:=20 TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: "esetser" = <esetser@covad.net>
To: = <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
Sent:=20 Saturday, February 16, 2002 11:01 AM
Subject: Re: AW: = [CANSLIM] Lack=20 of Buy Candidates


Be careful here, Tom has his own = special=20 breed of CANSLIM, and it seems
that his returns have NOT been = a good=20 indicator of average returns in the
group.  Unless I'm = mistaken,=20 Tom was losing money or breaking even back in
the roaring = bull, so=20 maybe it was just his turn!!

Tom does at least the = following=20 different from my approach (just from
memory):

1 - = Microcaps=20 only (below the minimum recommended by WON) (S?)
2 - Buys in = the base=20 before the breakout (Needs to because of 1)
3 - Doesn't use = Industry=20 Group Strength as a leader/laggard indicator (I)
4 - Buys in = all=20 markets (M)

>From my perspective, he violates the = normal rules=20 for S, I, and M.
However, Tom does admit to this, and doesn't = even=20 generally post his
selections due to these = variations.

Given=20 the differences, I think it should be expected that Tom's=20 performance
over a given year will vary from many of = us.  (And=20 there is that one stock
that has appreciated several times = his=20 original investment that is
impacting the results = too!)

One=20 other note.  >From my perspective, Tom's value to the = group is=20 his
willingness to take the time to review most anyone's = suggestions=20 and
selections and give great detail in his responses.  = His=20 general approach
may not follow CANSLIM exactly, but his = postings to=20 the group do following
WON quite closely.  He is our = master=20 educator on the technique, and gives a
lot of time and effort = to the=20 group.

FWIW, I ended up 2001 with about a 13% loss and am = down=20 about 6% more this
year so far.  Presently, I am only = 25%=20 invested with one position.   I am
not really = responding on=20 the group much, since I do not feel I have the
experience to = short,=20 and I am waiting for "M" to clear up before=20 new
purchases.




At 11:36 AM 2/16/02 +0100, = you=20 wrote:
>I think Tom bend only one rule --> stay out of = the=20 market if there is a
>downtrend in the overall=20 market.
>
>But as I said, if you choose small caps = and or=20 IGs that are going up, no
>problem making money on the = long=20 side.
>Just look on the builders or on the gold stocks = latley=20 ...
>
>BUT NEVER, NEVER buy stocks when the market = and the=20 IG is down.
>I have not seen one example where a member of = the=20 group does not break down
>then (besides its a small cap) = as=20 well.
>
>Some IGs are just setting up a bull market = for its=20 members no matter what
>the market is = doing.
>
>>=20 -----Urspr=FCngliche Nachricht-----
>> Von: Tom Worley=20 [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net]
>> Gesendet am: Saturday, = February=20 16, 2002 6:19 AM
>> An: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>>=20 Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy = Candidates
>>
>>=20 While I routinely violate CANSLIM rules, nonetheless my entire = process=20 is
>heavily based in CANSLIM. And I netted 76% for the = full year,=20 so yeah, I
>made a net profit.
>>
>> Tom = Worley
>> stkguru@netside.net
>>=20 AIM: TexWorley
>>   ----- Original Message=20 -----
>>   From: David=20 Squires
>>   To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>>  =20 Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2002 12:11 = AM
>>  =20 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy=20 Candidates
>>
>>
>>   = haven't=20 shorted in years, fully invested year round, made lots of = $$
>last=20 year, and profitable so far this year (including my fully=20 margined
>account).
>>
>>  =20 >>fully invested year round, made lots of $$ last=20 year<<
>>
>>   You were fully = invested=20 last year long and made a net profit? You
>better call = George=20 Soros! BTW, is this even remotely=20 CANSLIM.
>>
>>  =20 DSquires
>>     ----- Original = Message=20 -----
>>     From: Tom=20 Worley
>>     To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>>    =20 Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 10:47=20 PM
>>     Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = Lack of=20 Buy=20 = Candidates
>>
>>
>>    =20 haven't shorted in years, fully invested year round, made lots = of=20 $$
>last year, and profitable so far this year (including = my fully=20 = margined
>account).
>>
>>    = =20 Tom Worley
>>     stkguru@netside.net
>>&n= bsp;   =20 AIM: TexWorley
>>       = - -----=20 Original Message = - -----
>>      =20 From: Dan Forant
>>       = To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>>      =20 Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 8:03=20 PM
>>       Subject: Re:=20 [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy=20 = Candidates
>>
>>
>>    &nb= sp; =20 Of course it's absurd. If anyone's been in the market for the=20 past
>year and hasn't shorted and made $$, they are either = very=20 lucky or far
>better than the average investor. There was = no=20 shortage of stocks to short
>in TC2000 and=20 = candlesticks.
>>
>>      = =20 L8ter
>>      =20 DanF
>>         = - -----=20 Original Message=20 = - -----
>>         From:=20 Ian
>>         = To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>>        =20 Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 11:13=20 AM
>>         = Subject:=20 Re: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy=20 = Candidates
>>
>>
>>    &nb= sp;   =20 I find it almost absurd that WON discourages shorting. Almost=20 all
>of WON's ideas appear to have originated with Jesse=20 Livermore, who made the
>bulk of his money on the short = side. The=20 rules for selling a big CANSLIM
>winner make for perfect = short=20 candidates. Although selling a failed
>breakout as it = returns into=20 its base is NOT typically a good short
>candidate.=20 = JMHO.
>>
>>       &n= bsp;=20 = Ian
>>
>>
>>
>>   &nbs= p;    =20 ----- Original Message=20 = - -----
>>         &n= bsp;=20 From: Rob=20 = Miller
>>         &= nbsp;=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
>>           = Sent: Friday, February 15, 2002 6:40=20 = AM
>>          = ;=20 Subject: [CANSLIM] Lack of Buy=20 = Candidates
>>
>>
>>    &nb= sp;     =20 Even if we have a FTD from here, I see few stocks worth = buying.
>=20 However, my short list is overflowing.  The only moderately = attractive
>stocks I see on the long side are those = already in an=20 uptrend that are
>riding their lower=20 = channel.
>>
>>       = ;   =20 Is shorting considered off limits for this list?  I know=20 that
>WON discourages it, but he also claimed to make good = money=20 from shorts in
>HTMMIS.  As I understand it, he = discourages=20 it as a medium for the masses,
>nor necessarily for=20 = everyone.
>>
>>      &nbs= p;   =20 Rob
>>  << Datei: ATT00014.htm=20 >>




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