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canslim-digest        Thursday, April 11 2002        Volume 02 : Number 2296



In this issue:

       Re: [CANSLIM] ODSY
       Re: [CANSLIM] ODSY
       Re: ROE (was: [CANSLIM] ODSY)
       [CANSLIM] analysts
       Re: [CANSLIM] Market Rally
       Re: [CANSLIM] Market Rally
       RE: [CANSLIM] IMPORTANT: List address clarification...
       RE: [CANSLIM] M for Market

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Thu, 11 Apr 2002 08:21:48 -0700 (PDT)
From: Eric Jaenike <ericjaenike@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ODSY

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 Agreed. In poking through the 10-K, the hospice services industry appears to be experiencing significant growth as the market appears underpenetrated. ODSY is the largest player in a growing and fragmented industry (self reported).
Eric
  Tom Worley <stkguru@bellsouth.net> wrote: AMGP and MME would appear to be very different from ODSY, as they provide managed health care, while ODSY provides hospice service for persons with "life limiting illnesses" (is that the new jargon for terminal disease?). Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley----- Original Message ----- From: Ira Post To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, April 11, 2002 10:15 AMSubject: Re: [CANSLIM] ODSY
The companies I like best in this field are AMGP and MME.  AMGP has a huge upside - low debt, low P/E, high ROE and more.  I'm making money on this company and plan to make alot more.Ira----- Original Message ----- From: Katherine Malm To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, April 11, 2002 10:02 AMSubject: Re: [CANSLIM] ODSY
Duke, Sorry...just took a look and I was incorrect. If there isn't enough info, they will leave a blank for SMR. Looks like ROE is N/A due to negative earnings in the past and that would also make SMR an N/A Katherine----- Original Message ----- From: Katherine Malm To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, April 11, 2002 9:00 AMSubject: Re: [CANSLIM] ODSY
Hi Duke, The N/A for the SMR ranking is only because there isn't yet enough history on this new IPO to perform the calculations. In that case, you would have to look instead at the Sales, Profit Margins, and ROE independently to make the assessment. Katherine----- Original Message ----- From: Duke Miller To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Thursday, April 11, 2002 8:57 AMSubject: RE: [CANSLIM] ODSY
First blush, Eric, with a N/A for SMR and Group at D, it wouldn't make any of my lists.   Duke-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Eric Jaenike
Sent: Thursday, April 11, 2002 9:26 AM
To: canslim group
Subject: [CANSLIM] ODSY


Investigating ODSY (see New America 2/7). New high 7 wk consolidation. Good RS, EPS. Growth organic and acquisitions. Medicare reimbursement=93+% of revs. Still working on 2001 and 2002 EPS figures, finding discrepancies with reported DGO figures. IPO Oct. 2001. Group strength concerns. U/D 3.2, A/C B. Outperforming industry recently. Sequential top and bottom line growth. 

Any opinions/insights?

Eric



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<P> Agreed. In poking through the 10-K, the hospice services industry appears to be experiencing significant growth as the market appears underpenetrated. ODSY is the largest player in&nbsp;a growing and fragmented&nbsp;industry (self reported).
<P>Eric
<P>&nbsp; <B><I>Tom Worley &lt;stkguru@bellsouth.net&gt;</I></B> wrote: 
<BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px solid">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2715.400" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>

<DIV><FONT face=Arial>AMGP and MME would appear to be very different from ODSY, as they provide managed health care, while ODSY provides hospice service for persons with "life limiting illnesses" (is that the new jargon for terminal disease?).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A href="mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM: TexWorley</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- 
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A title=ip108@yahoo.com href="mailto:ip108@yahoo.com">Ira Post</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=canslim@lists.xmission.com href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, April 11, 2002 10:15 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] ODSY</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The companies I like best in this field are AMGP and MME.&nbsp; AMGP has a huge upside - low debt, low P/E, high ROE and more.&nbsp; I'm making money on this company and plan to make alot more.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Ira</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A title=kmalm@earthlink.net href="mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=canslim@lists.xmission.com href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, April 11, 2002 10:02 AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] ODSY</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Duke,</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Sorry...just took a look and I was incorrect. If there isn't enough info, they will leave a blank for SMR. Looks like ROE is N/A due to negative earnings in the past and that would also make SMR an N/A</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A title=kmalm@earthlink.net href="mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=canslim@lists.xmission.com href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, April 11, 2002 9:00 AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] ODSY</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Duke,</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>The N/A for the SMR ranking&nbsp;is only because there isn't yet enough history on this new IPO to perform the calculations. In that case, you would have to look instead at the Sales, Profit Margins, and ROE independently to make the assessment.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A title=dukemill@tampabay.rr.com href="mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com">Duke Miller</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=canslim@lists.xmission.com href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, April 11, 2002 8:57 AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] ODSY</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=248585413-11042002><FONT face=Arial>First blush, Eric, with a N/A for SMR and Group at D, it wouldn't make any of my lists.&nbsp; </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=248585413-11042002><FONT face=Arial></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=248585413-11042002><FONT face=Arial>Duke</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader lang=en-us dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> <A href="mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] <B>On Behalf Of </B>Eric Jaenike<BR><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, April 11, 2002 9:26 AM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim group<BR><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] ODSY<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<P>Investigating ODSY (see New America 2/7). New high 7 wk consolidation. Good RS, EPS. Growth organic and acquisitions. Medicare reimbursement=93+% of revs. Still working on 2001 and 2002 EPS figures, finding discrepancies with reported DGO figures. IPO Oct. 2001. Group strength concerns. U/D 3.2, A/C B. Outperforming industry recently. Sequential top and bottom line growth. </P>
<P>Any opinions/insights?</P>
<P>Eric</P>
<P><BR>
<HR SIZE=1>
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Date: Thu, 11 Apr 2002 11:22:10 -0400
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ODSY

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Eric, the biggest reason I personally would have to avoid this one is =
that it has not been publicly traded for at least a year. I have no =
faith at all (even before Enron) with the presentation of "pro forma" =
data.

For a company to tell you (as they try to go public and in hopes you =
will buy and support their stock after the IPO) what they WOULD have =
reported IF they had been public at the time means a strong bias by the =
company and their accountants to present the most favorable decisions =
using the most liberal aspects of GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting =
Practices) in place at the time.

As a new company actually reports quarterly results, you start getting =
more valid year to year comparisons. Once 4 qtrs of reports are in =
place, I am a little more comfortable with the numbers.

Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Eric Jaenike=20
To: canslim group=20
Sent: Thursday, April 11, 2002 9:26 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] ODSY


Investigating ODSY (see New America 2/7). New high 7 wk consolidation. =
Good RS, EPS. Growth organic and acquisitions. Medicare =
reimbursement=3D93+% of revs. Still working on 2001 and 2002 EPS =
figures, finding discrepancies with reported DGO figures. IPO Oct. 2001. =
Group strength concerns. U/D 3.2, A/C B. Outperforming industry =
recently. Sequential top and bottom line growth.=20

Any opinions/insights?

Eric





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<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Eric, the biggest reason I personally would have =
to avoid=20
this one is that it has not been publicly traded for at least a year. I =
have no=20
faith at all (even before Enron) with the presentation of "pro forma"=20
data.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>For a company to tell you (as they try to go =
public and in=20
hopes you will buy and support their stock after the IPO) what they =
WOULD have=20
reported IF they had been public at the time means a strong bias by the =
company=20
and their accountants to present the most favorable decisions using the =
most=20
liberal aspects of GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Practices) in =
place at=20
the time.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As a new company actually reports quarterly =
results, you=20
start getting more valid year to year comparisons. Once 4 qtrs of =
reports are in=20
place, I am a little more comfortable with the numbers.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Dericjaenike@yahoo.com href=3D"mailto:ericjaenike@yahoo.com">Eric =
Jaenike</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim group</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, April 11, 2002 9:26 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] ODSY</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<P>Investigating ODSY (see New America 2/7). New high 7 wk =
consolidation. Good=20
RS, EPS. Growth organic and acquisitions. Medicare reimbursement=3D93+% =
of revs.=20
Still working on 2001 and 2002 EPS figures, finding discrepancies with =
reported=20
DGO figures. IPO Oct. 2001. Group strength concerns. U/D 3.2, A/C B.=20
Outperforming industry recently. Sequential top and bottom line growth. =
</P>
<P>Any opinions/insights?</P>
<P>Eric</P>
<P><BR>
<HR SIZE=3D1>
<B>Do You Yahoo!?</B><BR><A=20
href=3D"$rd_url/welcome/?http://taxes.yahoo.com/">Yahoo! Tax Center</A> =
- - online=20
filing with TurboTax</BODY></HTML>

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------------------------------

Date: Thu, 11 Apr 2002 12:53:45 EDT
From: Davellil5@aol.com
Subject: Re: ROE (was: [CANSLIM] ODSY)

Trust people of any age -- but verify  (with apologies to Ronald Reagan)

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Date: Thu, 11 Apr 2002 13:01:57 -0600
From: "Patrick Wahl" <pjwahl@attbi.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] analysts

I think we all enjoy seeing analysts get bashed, here is a good one on the subject.

http://makeashorterlink.com/?A2B732BA


Maybe its just me, but for some reason I can't help thinking of the Seinfeld 
show when I hear the name Urban Outfitters.  Guess its too close to the name 
Urban Sombrero.....

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Date: Thu, 11 Apr 2002 14:19:29 -0500
From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Rally

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Excellent point, Eric, and one that gets lost in the noise when trying =
to "read the market."

Katherine
  ----- Original Message -----=20
  From: Eric Jaenike=20
  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  Sent: Thursday, April 11, 2002 8:38 AM
  Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Rally


  Agree that downturn materialized. As for requirement of undercutting =
low, I believe that applies to very early in the nascent rally only. =
Once a rally has moved the indices away from the low, the 3-5 day =
distribution rule takes effect. If you waited for an undercut of the =
previous low after a meaningful rally to call that rally dead, you'd be =
extremely late (assuming the rollover and downtrend even bought the =
indices below that previous low).=20

  Eric=20

    Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:=20

    Hi Rob,

    I just read the Ask Bill column and agree the wording is confusing. =
Here's what I see for recent action on the NASDAQ:

    Recent low set 2/22/02, close 1696.6
    By definition, a follow thru day (FTD) on 3/4/02, close 1790
    Uptrend stalled and turned around 3/8/02, close 1908
    While a new bull doesn't start without a FTD, a FTD doesn't =
necessarily mean we are in a sustained rally.
    Too many distribution days in a row makes it official, whatever =
chance there was of a rally on the NASDAQ is done for--

    Heavy distribution days on: 3/20/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/9/02

    Unless things change quickly, the downtrend remains intact.

    Katherine
      ----- Original Message -----=20
      From: Rob Miller=20
      To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
      Sent: Thursday, April 11, 2002 8:02 AM
      Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Rally


      I'm confused.  I noticed that on investors.com today, WON (or =
whoever answers these questions) states that there is no rally at this =
time because we haven't had a FTD off recent lows.  My understanding is =
that a rally is intact as long as the first day of the rally attempt is =
not undercut.  Therefore, the rally beginning in February is still in =
force.  You could argue that the rally failed because so few Canslim =
stocks were breaking out, but I don't recall that being a requirement to =
call the rally a failure, only a measure of the rally's strength.  IBD =
called the last follow through day and I don't remember them calling the =
rally a failure yet.  I don't read IBD every day so I may be missing =
something, but are they always this inconsistent.  The columns on the =
front page have also been questionable lately. =20

      Rob




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<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Diso-8859-1">
<META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=3DGENERATOR></HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV>Excellent point, Eric, and one&nbsp;that gets lost in the noise =
when trying=20
to "read the market."</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
  <A title=3Dericjaenike@yahoo.com =
href=3D"mailto:ericjaenike@yahoo.com">Eric=20
  Jaenike</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  =
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
 </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, April 11, 2002 =
8:38=20
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Market =
Rally</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <P>Agree that downturn materialized. As for requirement of =
undercutting low, I=20
  believe that applies to very early in the nascent rally only. Once a =
rally has=20
  moved the indices away from the low, the 3-5 day distribution rule =
takes=20
  effect. If you waited for an undercut of the previous low after a =
meaningful=20
  rally to call that rally dead, you'd be extremely late (assuming the =
rollover=20
  and downtrend&nbsp;even bought the indices below that previous low).=20
  <P>Eric=20
  <P>&nbsp; <B><I>Katherine Malm &lt;kmalm@earthlink.net&gt;</I></B> =
wrote:=20
  <BLOCKQUOTE=20
  style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px =
solid">
    <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=3DGENERATOR>
    <STYLE></STYLE>

    <DIV>Hi Rob,</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>I just read the Ask Bill column and agree the wording is =
confusing.=20
    Here's what I see for recent action on the NASDAQ:</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Recent low set 2/22/02, close 1696.6</DIV>
    <DIV>By definition, a follow thru day (FTD)&nbsp;on 3/4/02, close =
1790</DIV>
    <DIV>Uptrend stalled and turned around 3/8/02, close 1908</DIV>
    <DIV>While a new bull doesn't start without a FTD, a FTD doesn't =
necessarily=20
    mean we are in a sustained rally.</DIV>
    <DIV>Too many distribution days in a row makes it official, whatever =
chance=20
    there was of a rally on the NASDAQ is done for--</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Heavy distribution days on: 3/20/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, =
4/9/02</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Unless things change quickly, the downtrend remains =
intact.</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Katherine</DIV>
    <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
    style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
      <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
      <DIV=20
      style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
      <A title=3Drmiller2@carolina.rr.com=20
      href=3D"mailto:rmiller2@carolina.rr.com">Rob Miller</A> </DIV>
      <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
      title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
      =
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
      </DIV>
      <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, April 11, =
2002 8:02=20
      AM</DIV>
      <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Market =
Rally</DIV>
      <DIV><BR></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I'm confused.&nbsp; I noticed =
that on=20
      investors.com today, WON (or whoever answers these questions) =
states that=20
      there is no rally at this time because we haven't had a FTD off =
recent=20
      lows.&nbsp; My understanding is that a rally is intact as long as =
the=20
      first day of the rally attempt is not undercut.&nbsp; Therefore, =
the rally=20
      beginning in February is still in force.&nbsp; You could argue =
that the=20
      rally failed because so few Canslim stocks were breaking out, but =
I don't=20
      recall that being a requirement to call the rally a failure, only =
a=20
      measure of the rally's strength.&nbsp; IBD called the last follow =
through=20
      day and I don't remember them calling the rally a failure =
yet.&nbsp; I=20
      don't read IBD every day so I may be missing something, but are =
they=20
      always this inconsistent.&nbsp; The columns on the front page have =
also=20
      been questionable lately.&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2>Rob</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE>
  <P><BR>
  <HR SIZE=3D1>
  <B>Do You Yahoo!?</B><BR><A=20
  href=3D"$rd_url/welcome/?http://taxes.yahoo.com/">Yahoo! Tax =
Center</A> - online=20
  filing with TurboTax</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

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- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 11 Apr 2002 16:38:02 -0400
From: "Rob Miller" <rmiller2@carolina.rr.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Rally

This is a multi-part message in MIME format.

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	charset="iso-8859-1"
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I agree except that I don't think this rally has been meaningful enough =
yet.  I am also just now seeing enough distribution days to call it into =
question, and most of the stocks on my watch are still moving sideways.  =
That and so few stocks breaking out, maybe there never was a rally.  Ah, =
but its all academic anyway.  Besides, while some Canslim rules are easy =
to interpret, others are highly ambiguous.  It's most important that we =
each follow a set of rules, not that we each read the rules the same =
way.=20

Rob=20
  ----- Original Message -----=20
  From: Eric Jaenike=20
  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  Sent: Thursday, April 11, 2002 9:38 AM
  Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market Rally


  Agree that downturn materialized. As for requirement of undercutting =
low, I believe that applies to very early in the nascent rally only. =
Once a rally has moved the indices away from the low, the 3-5 day =
distribution rule takes effect. If you waited for an undercut of the =
previous low after a meaningful rally to call that rally dead, you'd be =
extremely late (assuming the rollover and downtrend even bought the =
indices below that previous low).=20

  Eric=20

    Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:=20

    Hi Rob,

    I just read the Ask Bill column and agree the wording is confusing. =
Here's what I see for recent action on the NASDAQ:

    Recent low set 2/22/02, close 1696.6
    By definition, a follow thru day (FTD) on 3/4/02, close 1790
    Uptrend stalled and turned around 3/8/02, close 1908
    While a new bull doesn't start without a FTD, a FTD doesn't =
necessarily mean we are in a sustained rally.
    Too many distribution days in a row makes it official, whatever =
chance there was of a rally on the NASDAQ is done for--

    Heavy distribution days on: 3/20/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/9/02

    Unless things change quickly, the downtrend remains intact.

    Katherine
      ----- Original Message -----=20
      From: Rob Miller=20
      To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
      Sent: Thursday, April 11, 2002 8:02 AM
      Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Rally


      I'm confused.  I noticed that on investors.com today, WON (or =
whoever answers these questions) states that there is no rally at this =
time because we haven't had a FTD off recent lows.  My understanding is =
that a rally is intact as long as the first day of the rally attempt is =
not undercut.  Therefore, the rally beginning in February is still in =
force.  You could argue that the rally failed because so few Canslim =
stocks were breaking out, but I don't recall that being a requirement to =
call the rally a failure, only a measure of the rally's strength.  IBD =
called the last follow through day and I don't remember them calling the =
rally a failure yet.  I don't read IBD every day so I may be missing =
something, but are they always this inconsistent.  The columns on the =
front page have also been questionable lately. =20

      Rob




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<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Diso-8859-1">
<META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2715.400" name=3DGENERATOR></HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I agree except that I don't think this =
rally has=20
been meaningful enough yet.&nbsp; I am also just now seeing enough =
distribution=20
days to call it into question, and most of the stocks on my watch are =
still=20
moving sideways.&nbsp; That and&nbsp;so few stocks breaking out, maybe =
there=20
never was a rally.&nbsp; Ah, but its all academic anyway.&nbsp; Besides, =
while=20
some Canslim rules are easy to interpret, others are highly =
ambiguous.&nbsp;=20
It's most important that we each follow a set of rules, not that we each =
read=20
the rules the same way.&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Rob</FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
  <A title=3Dericjaenike@yahoo.com =
href=3D"mailto:ericjaenike@yahoo.com">Eric=20
  Jaenike</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  =
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
 </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, April 11, 2002 =
9:38=20
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Market =
Rally</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <P>Agree that downturn materialized. As for requirement of =
undercutting low, I=20
  believe that applies to very early in the nascent rally only. Once a =
rally has=20
  moved the indices away from the low, the 3-5 day distribution rule =
takes=20
  effect. If you waited for an undercut of the previous low after a =
meaningful=20
  rally to call that rally dead, you'd be extremely late (assuming the =
rollover=20
  and downtrend&nbsp;even bought the indices below that previous low).=20
  <P>Eric=20
  <P>&nbsp; <B><I>Katherine Malm &lt;kmalm@earthlink.net&gt;</I></B> =
wrote:=20
  <BLOCKQUOTE=20
  style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px =
solid">
    <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=3DGENERATOR>
    <STYLE></STYLE>

    <DIV>Hi Rob,</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>I just read the Ask Bill column and agree the wording is =
confusing.=20
    Here's what I see for recent action on the NASDAQ:</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Recent low set 2/22/02, close 1696.6</DIV>
    <DIV>By definition, a follow thru day (FTD)&nbsp;on 3/4/02, close =
1790</DIV>
    <DIV>Uptrend stalled and turned around 3/8/02, close 1908</DIV>
    <DIV>While a new bull doesn't start without a FTD, a FTD doesn't =
necessarily=20
    mean we are in a sustained rally.</DIV>
    <DIV>Too many distribution days in a row makes it official, whatever =
chance=20
    there was of a rally on the NASDAQ is done for--</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Heavy distribution days on: 3/20/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, =
4/9/02</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Unless things change quickly, the downtrend remains =
intact.</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Katherine</DIV>
    <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
    style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
      <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
      <DIV=20
      style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
      <A title=3Drmiller2@carolina.rr.com=20
      href=3D"mailto:rmiller2@carolina.rr.com">Rob Miller</A> </DIV>
      <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
      title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
      =
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
      </DIV>
      <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, April 11, =
2002 8:02=20
      AM</DIV>
      <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Market =
Rally</DIV>
      <DIV><BR></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I'm confused.&nbsp; I noticed =
that on=20
      investors.com today, WON (or whoever answers these questions) =
states that=20
      there is no rally at this time because we haven't had a FTD off =
recent=20
      lows.&nbsp; My understanding is that a rally is intact as long as =
the=20
      first day of the rally attempt is not undercut.&nbsp; Therefore, =
the rally=20
      beginning in February is still in force.&nbsp; You could argue =
that the=20
      rally failed because so few Canslim stocks were breaking out, but =
I don't=20
      recall that being a requirement to call the rally a failure, only =
a=20
      measure of the rally's strength.&nbsp; IBD called the last follow =
through=20
      day and I don't remember them calling the rally a failure =
yet.&nbsp; I=20
      don't read IBD every day so I may be missing something, but are =
they=20
      always this inconsistent.&nbsp; The columns on the front page have =
also=20
      been questionable lately.&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2>Rob</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE>
  <P><BR>
  <HR SIZE=3D1>
  <B>Do You Yahoo!?</B><BR><A=20
  href=3D"$rd_url/welcome/?http://taxes.yahoo.com/">Yahoo! Tax =
Center</A> - online=20
  filing with TurboTax</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

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- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 11 Apr 2002 16:29:12 -0500
From: "Bert Rodriguez" <jbrod@airmail.net>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] IMPORTANT: List address clarification...

Jeff - This is Bert Rodriguez and I've been following the CANSLIM emails for
some months.  I just read a message that said you could put me in a Digest
mode so that I would receive the emails in a batch.  Can you do this for me?
Thanks, BERT (jbrod@airmail.net)

- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Jeff Salisbury
Sent: Tuesday, April 02, 2002 6:25 PM
To: canslim@xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] IMPORTANT: List address clarification...


Hello canslimers,

This is for some of you old timers who have been members of our list for
many years.  There is a chance that you may be using an old list
address:

    canslim@xmission.com

This old address has been jerry-rigged to continue working for the last
5 or 6 years.  However, this address is about to be tossed into the
bit-bucket.  Within the next 24 hours, this address will no longer
work.  Any messages sent to this address will bounce back to you as
undeliverable.

Rather, you MUST use the proper address:

    canslim@lists.xmission.com

Regards,

Jeff Salisbury




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- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.


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- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.

------------------------------

Date: Thu, 11 Apr 2002 17:43:31 -0500
From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M for Market

Gee Wiz Tom,

I did not say you had to be a champion stock picker to succeed just that the
odds were stacked against you if you aren't. Besides you seem to make money
even when everyone else is loosing, isn't that a sign of a champion?

E

- -----Original Message-----
From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net] 
Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 11:59 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M for Market

I don't know much about timing of the markets, never did well at that. So
just focused on trying to buy stocks with solid fundies, and looking like
they deserved higher valuations by CANSLIM measures.

After four days on the road, mostly out of touch with what the US and global
markets were doing and with total neglect of my investments, aside from the
little I was able to glean from CNN (they never showed a single quote on any
stock I owned, guess they were all too insignificant), I was understandably
pleased tonight to check where I stood thru Wednesday's close from last
Friday's close:
IRA - up 0.9%
401K - up 0.4% (big winner was my new investment in the small cap fund, up
2%, but the other three funds were up as well)
margin acct - up 9.5% (haven't yet had the time to figure out why)

I don't think this makes me a champion stock picker, just one not focused on
the short term, but rather the long term with some intermediate term
considerations.

Seems like I need to apply less obsession, and more benign neglect, to my
investment practices.

Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Tuesday, April 09, 2002 2:33 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M for Market


Dave you are right, but!

Part of my recent research was to do just that, beat the market with those
very few companies that buck the trend. Here is the rub, at least what I
found with the samplings that I was working with. Even when you can get a
good entry point you can easily get whipsawed out of your position when the
market takes one of it's quick drops. The 8% stop loss rule is applicable to
CANSLIM when M is operating in uptrend mode.

Often the very stocks that buck M while it is on its way down are very
volatile because of the condition of M. Two bad days in a row for M and you
could easily be stopped out of your position only to see the market
stabilize and then see your prize stock take off without you.

Unless you are a champion stock picker the odds are really stacked against
you. I of course am not that smart and too hardheaded to learn from others,
so instead I paid for my education. The main thing I learned from my
research of my investments over the past year and other stocks with CANSLIM
qualities during the same timeframe, is this; the stocks that made money did
so while the market was moving up, and the ones that lost money did so while
the market was moving down.

Granted some of these stocks when up while the market was resting or
dropping only a little, but invariably the market would have a one or two
day sharp drop and I would be stopped out.

That's when I became very focused on timing the short term (one week to two
month) moves of the market. I have found that you can beat the longer term
trend of the market with top quality stocks if you only hold them for a
short period of time while the market is moving up.

Of course timing the short term moves of the market is no easy task either.
Bottom line its easy to look at charts of stocks that have beaten the market
over the past two years, its another thing entirely to have been able to
enter those stocks and not have gotten stopped out unless you are willing to
use wider stop loss points, which can become very expensive when you are
wrong.

Caveat emptor.

E

E


 -----Original Message-----
From: Davellil5@aol.com [mailto:Davellil5@aol.com]
Sent: Tuesday, April 09, 2002 12:14 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] M for Market

Recent email in our group indicates that one should never, never,  buy a
stock in a dead market.

This rule is based  on the unstated premise that no stock can ever buck the
market -- or that there's no way to identify a stock that has a good chance
of bucking the market.  So, in a dead market, one should always stay in
cash.

Yet we've all seen the charts of hundreds of stocks that could, and did,
buck
the spooky market of the past two years.  Our problem, friends, is how to
spot those stocks before they rise out of reach, not to moan about the lousy

market.   What should we be looking for?

One type of Company whose stock can buck this dead market -- I've observed
- --
is a Company in a niche business.  Usually, this kind of Company doesn't
even
belong in its own industry group -- so it may buck its group as well as the
market as a whole.   I look for those.

Purpose of this email is to pick y'all's brains.  What other types of
Companies have any  of you noticed with a propensity for bucking a dead
market.   This market may stay dead for awhile yet.  Let's pool, our brains
on what to look for.  I hope I get avalanched on this one

Regards to all, Dave

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use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. 
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