From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2321 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, April 18 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2321 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Tom or Ian RE: [CANSLIM] When to Buy Re: [CANSLIM] Tom or Ian - MRGE RE: [CANSLIM] When to Buy Re: [CANSLIM] Tom or Ian Re: [CANSLIM] NOBL RE: [CANSLIM] NOBL [CANSLIM] Re. Earnings RE: [CANSLIM] NOBL Re: [CANSLIM] Re. Earnings Re: [CANSLIM] When to Buy Re: [CANSLIM] NOBL ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 18 Apr 2002 01:51:24 -0700 (PDT) From: Dimitri Katsaros Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tom or Ian > In fact, the biggest hurdle I see to a long > sustained move up in tech > stocks is that they split way too many times in the > 1998-2000 mania Which IBD says is "okay" for tech stocks > leaving most of them horrendously over-priced on a > P/S or P/E basis above $15. Dunno about P/S, but WON says to ignore PE unless it goes up 120% since last pivot, then it is a sell signal. > Remember that when WON did his original research, > the median number of shares outstanding was > 4,000,000! I would absolutely love to have a large > selection of $15+ stocks with solid growth, and less > than 10,000,000 shares > outstanding. It seems his stance has changed considerably on this matter since the book was written... I did a search on the "Ask IBD" knowledgebase: Question: Some companies have high IBD SmartSelect® Corporate Ratings and well-formed charts, but low market capitalization. Is there a minimum market cap I should look for when evaluating stocks? Answer: A stock's market capitalization should make no difference. It's more important to disregard stocks priced less than $15 or those that have less than 200,000 shares of average daily volume. That should help you focus on quality stocks with adequate liquidity. Question: In 'How To Make Money in Stocks' you emphasize stocks with fewer than 25 million shares. I see little mentioned about this in IBD. Has the number changed? Answer: Generally speaking, the more shares a stock trades, the more buying that is needed to lift the share price. In recent years, however, large cap stocks (with many million shares outstanding) have shown more leadership thanks to the growing influence of mutual funds, indexing and the growth of leading industries. Therefore, a stock with any size capitalization is worth considering as long it has the characteristics of strength we look for. To properly weigh the demand for a stock, you should analyze day to day price and volume changes. The purpose of my question wasn't to tell you that you are wrong or anything like that. Rather, I am still learning the CANSLIM method and was curious about your discounting some of the rules as I am always open-minded to what works and what doesn't. Thank you Dimitri Katsaros ===== Quiquid latine dictum sit altum viditur __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Tax Center - online filing with TurboTax http://taxes.yahoo.com/ - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 18 Apr 2002 07:44:14 -0400 From: "Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA]" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] When to Buy OUCH! I'll be sure to post only humorless informational analyses next = time. Anyway, we all learned a new word, didn't we? John C. - -----Original Message----- From: John Lessnau [mailto:jl@lessnau.com] Sent: Wednesday, April 17, 2002 11:59 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When to Buy Understood. I guess I was hoping for some more in-depth analysis of the chart from = the group so we all could learn. Thank god we have Katherine in our group. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "DanC" To: Sent: Wednesday, April 17, 2002 11:41 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When to Buy John C. was joshing, or at least seemed to be to me. Just poking back a = bit. John Lessnau wrote: > ??? > > e=B7rum=B7pent Pronunciation Key (-rmpnt) > adj. > Bursting through or as if through a surface or covering. > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "DanC" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, April 17, 2002 10:59 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When to Buy > > > Erumpent wisdom to live by. > > > > "Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA]" wrote: > > > > > The best time to buy would be on the left side of the chart. > > > > > > John C. > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > From: John Lessnau > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > Sent: 4/17/02 5:44 PM > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] When to Buy > > > > > > Assuming the stock in the attached graph had CANSLIM fundimentals = what > > > would be the pivot point and when would be the best time to buy? = My > > > guess would be when the stock hits 58 on increased volume of = 400,000+ > > > ??? > > > > > > > > > > > > <> > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 18 Apr 2002 09:34:00 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tom or Ian - MRGE Alpine, I bot MRGE at an average of $7, just as it was sitting in that short flat base line. The only crucial thing that stops it being CANSLIM is the price. Everything else pretty well qualifies. Volume was news driven, another acquisition they are doing. Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Ian" To: Sent: Wednesday, April 17, 2002 4:54 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tom or Ian Hi: I bought MRGE at around $4, and again around $5 (both in late February). I still own it - was planning on selling in the $9's originally. Based on past experience, these kind of short-term surges often hit a brick wall at $10. Sure was amazing volume today though. Ian - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Wednesday, April 17, 2002 8:01 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Tom or Ian > Was wondering if you guys followed or had an opinion on MRGE? I realize it's > not CANSLIM, but know ya'll watch a few micros from time to time. Any > thoughts much appreciated. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 18 Apr 2002 09:57:24 -0400 From: "Duke Miller" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] When to Buy One of the few times Atomica* came to the rescue for me! A truly erumpent event, to say the least!! Duke M *You can download it free at www.atomica.com. After installing, when you click on a word with the ALT key depressed (any word, any application), up comes the definition, synonyms, etc. Even pronounces the word for you. In this case (erumpent), the correct pronunciation is kin to a muffled, garlic-driven belch following a great Italian meatball hoagie! - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA] Sent: Thursday, April 18, 2002 7:44 AM To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] When to Buy OUCH! I'll be sure to post only humorless informational analyses next time. Anyway, we all learned a new word, didn't we? John C. - -----Original Message----- From: John Lessnau [mailto:jl@lessnau.com] Sent: Wednesday, April 17, 2002 11:59 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When to Buy Understood. I guess I was hoping for some more in-depth analysis of the chart from the group so we all could learn. Thank god we have Katherine in our group. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "DanC" To: Sent: Wednesday, April 17, 2002 11:41 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When to Buy John C. was joshing, or at least seemed to be to me. Just poking back a bit. John Lessnau wrote: > ??? > > e.rum.pent Pronunciation Key (-rmpnt) > adj. > Bursting through or as if through a surface or covering. > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "DanC" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, April 17, 2002 10:59 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When to Buy > > > Erumpent wisdom to live by. > > > > "Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA]" wrote: > > > > > The best time to buy would be on the left side of the chart. > > > > > > John C. > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > From: John Lessnau > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > Sent: 4/17/02 5:44 PM > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] When to Buy > > > > > > Assuming the stock in the attached graph had CANSLIM fundimentals > > > what would be the pivot point and when would be the best time to > > > buy? My guess would be when the stock hits 58 on increased volume > > > of 400,000+ ??? > > > > > > > > > > > > <> > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the > > > email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". > > > Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the > > email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do > > not use quotes in your email. > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe > canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 18 Apr 2002 07:21:20 -0700 From: Ian Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tom or Ian I'll add one more point that I believe is relevant. Institutional support of sub $10 stocks has changed considerably in t= he past 18 months. Although not much of a chart reader, I consider myself qui= te an adept ticker reader, and I have a pretty good feel for what insitutio= nal buying/support looks like. It wasn't long ago that sub $10 stocks wer= e strictly the domain of daytraders and retail news-driven investors. I= n the past 18 months that has changed - many of the best performing funds a= re now stepping in and buying and supporting the cheaper stocks - making the= m even more 'CANSLIM', IMHO. The reason they are good fundmanagers, again just my opinion, is that= they have adapted their style to what is working today. Ian PS - I have to be in 100% total disagreement with WON over the split = thing. It is a lead weight over many of those stocks that cannot be removed = until they start doing reverse splits. Many companies with small/microcap r= evenues have 100,000,000+ shares outstanding. It is ludicrous. - ----- Original Message ----- =46rom: Dimitri Katsaros To: Sent: Thursday, April 18, 2002 1:51 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Tom or Ian > > In fact, the biggest hurdle I see to a long > > sustained move up in tech > > stocks is that they split way too many times in the > > 1998-2000 mania > > Which IBD says is "okay" for tech stocks > > > leaving most of them horrendously over-priced on a > > P/S or P/E basis above $15. > > Dunno about P/S, but WON says to ignore PE unless it > goes up 120% since last pivot, then it is a sell > signal. > > > Remember that when WON did his original research, > > the median number of shares outstanding was > > 4,000,000! I would absolutely love to have a large > > selection of $15+ stocks with solid growth, and less > > than 10,000,000 shares > > outstanding. > > It seems his stance has changed considerably on this > matter since the book was written... I did a search on > the "Ask IBD" knowledgebase: > > Question: Some companies have high IBD SmartSelect=AE > Corporate Ratings and well-formed charts, but low > market capitalization. Is there a minimum market cap I > should look for when evaluating stocks? > > Answer: A stock's market capitalization should make no > difference. It's more important to disregard stocks > priced less than $15 or those that have less than > 200,000 shares of average daily volume. That should > help you focus on quality stocks with adequate > liquidity. > > Question: In 'How To Make Money in Stocks' you > emphasize stocks with fewer than 25 million shares. I > see little mentioned about this in IBD. Has the number > changed? > > Answer: Generally speaking, the more shares a stock > trades, the more buying that is needed to lift the > share price. In recent years, however, large cap > stocks (with many million shares outstanding) have > shown more leadership thanks to the growing influence > of mutual funds, indexing and the growth of leading > industries. Therefore, a stock with any size > capitalization is worth considering as long it has the > characteristics of strength we look for. To properly > weigh the demand for a stock, you should analyze day > to day price and volume changes. > > The purpose of my question wasn't to tell you that you > are wrong or anything like that. Rather, I am still > learning the CANSLIM method and was curious about your > discounting some of the rules as I am always > open-minded to what works and what doesn't. > > Thank you > Dimitri Katsaros > > =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D > Quiquid latine dictum sit altum viditur > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Yahoo! Tax Center - online filing with TurboTax > http://taxes.yahoo.com/ > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 18 Apr 2002 10:21:01 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NOBL Hi Mona, what you are seeing as a cup is, to me, to short a basing pattern to call a cup. I simply see it as volatility on profit taking on a stock that has run up pretty far, pretty fast. I bought just using short flat bases, on 12/31 at 8.13, and 1/8/02 at 8.99 when it didn't back off. I sold 2/19 at 11.47 primarily because I was concentrating more funds in technology, and was not comfortable with the automotive industry at the time. Where I sold it was in another flat line base, so the stock was not giving me a reason to sell, and I should still have waited for that reason, and made a lot more money. Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Mona Guarino" To: Sent: Wednesday, April 17, 2002 11:15 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] NOBL Tom, I know the feeling as to baling too soon and then wathing something climb . . . Question on c&p on this one. Looking at a weekly chart, I see a move up before 3/10/00 and then a cup just finishing it's right side now -- within 5% of the top of the left. So, I'd be looking for it to get to 16.75 and then form a handle. Or, was the activity 3/15 to 3/29 the handle already? Thanks, - -- Mona > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley > Sent: Monday, April 15, 2002 10:10 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NOBL > > > still can't believe I bought this one right, then bailed out WAY too soon. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@bellsouth.net > AIM: TexWorley > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Tim Fisher" > To: > Sent: Monday, April 15, 2002 10:39 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] NOBL > > > Breaking out from a short volatile flat base....I bot 1/2 pos. Not a good > "M"! But I wanted to test the "small cap outperforming" theory - I had a > banner week last week. > > Tim Fisher > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > Owner, Fisher Fisheries, Ltd. > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 18 Apr 2002 10:50:27 -0700 From: "Mona Guarino" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] NOBL Hi Tom, Thanks for your response, but I think we miscommunicated on something -- 3/10/00 to date -- 'to short a basing pattern to call a cup' ? That's two years. Tim commented it was 'breaking out from a short volatile flat base', but I wasn't seeing a flat base on the daily chart, so went to the weekly. When I look at the weekly chart, the entire chart looks like a cup almost at the top of the right side with volume picking up significantly from 1/25/02 forward. That's longer than WON's '7 to as many as 65 weeks (most are usually three to six months)' and more correction than his 'usual percentage correction from the absolute peak to the low point of the price pattern varies from 12% or 15% to 33%,' but it looked so much like it fit the general pattern, I thought I'd ask. - -- Mona > Hi Mona, > > what you are seeing as a cup is, to me, to short a basing pattern > to call a > cup. I simply see it as volatility on profit taking on a stock > that has run > up pretty far, pretty fast. > > I bought just using short flat bases, on 12/31 at 8.13, and 1/8/02 at 8.99 > when it didn't back off. I sold 2/19 at 11.47 primarily because I was > concentrating more funds in technology, and was not comfortable with the > automotive industry at the time. Where I sold it was in another flat line > base, so the stock was not giving me a reason to sell, and I should still > have waited for that reason, and made a lot more money. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@bellsouth.net > AIM: TexWorley > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Mona Guarino" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, April 17, 2002 11:15 AM > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] NOBL > > > Tom, I know the feeling as to baling too soon and then wathing something > climb . . . > > Question on c&p on this one. Looking at a weekly chart, I see a move up > before 3/10/00 and then a cup just finishing it's right side now -- within > 5% of the top of the left. So, I'd be looking for it to get to 16.75 and > then form a handle. Or, was the activity 3/15 to 3/29 the handle already? > > Thanks, > -- Mona > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley > > Sent: Monday, April 15, 2002 10:10 PM > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NOBL > > > > > > still can't believe I bought this one right, then bailed out > WAY too soon. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@bellsouth.net > > AIM: TexWorley > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Tim Fisher" > > To: > > Sent: Monday, April 15, 2002 10:39 AM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] NOBL > > > > > > Breaking out from a short volatile flat base....I bot 1/2 pos. > Not a good > > "M"! But I wanted to test the "small cap outperforming" theory - I had a > > banner week last week. > > > > Tim Fisher > > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > > Owner, Fisher Fisheries, Ltd. > > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > > WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 18 Apr 2002 11:06:35 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. Earnings People: I'm not sure who asked about the "validity" of earnings, but I just read an article on earnings (by the OnLine Investor) that might prove helpful. jans "Earnings: Look A Little Deeper April 12, 2002 - Earnings for a company can come from various sources. However, there are three ways that really count: operating earnings, cost cutting or a combination of the two. This earnings season, which will be watched more closely than any in recent history, make sure you look behind the headline number to find out how the earnings were made. A company can announce some great earnings, but the stock can still go down. Usually that's because those earnings came from a one time event called an extraordinary item. While the company will announce those earnings, most reporting services don't publish that number. Rather they give the operating earnings. Those are the earnings the company produced from the ongoing business, not from sales of assets or subsidiaries. Another reason for a dip in the stock in spite of better earnings: the company will give a poor outlook, suggesting that earnings won't be improving. The ongoing earnings are the ones you want to focus on this quarter (and in the future). And, just as important, you want to look at revenues as well. If you only have earnings increasing without a revenue increase it means the earnings are coming from cost cutting. That's fine for a while, but earnings can't continue to grow if they only come from cost cutting. There is an absolute limit to how much a company can cut costs before it hurts rather than helps the enterprise. What you would ideally like to see: an increase in revenues and an even better increase, in terms of percentages, in earnings. For example, if you saw a company that reported an increase of 5% in revenues and an increase of 10% in operating earnings (with no extraordinary items), you would know that sales are increasing and the company is getting more efficient as it grows. That's the powerful one-two punch that growth investors want to see: growth in sales with better growth in earnings. It means that as the company gets larger, it will also get more profitable. At some point, that stops, but good growth companies can go on like that for years. There will be a lot of earnings coming out in the next three weeks. There will be lots of buzz, anguish and some pleasant surprises. When you start looking at your companies, make sure you look a little deeper than just the announced number. If you can see better revenues along with even stronger earnings, then your company is doing something that most others can't in this economy. That should make it a very worthwhile company to own. - -Ted Allrich" - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: 18 Apr 2002 08:21:23 -0700 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] NOBL I ignore resistance older than 52 weeks. Thus it was at a 52 week high he day of the B/O. Of course you didn't see a flat base since there was not one. I should have said "short volatile base" and left it at that. At 10:50 AM 4/18/2002 -0700, you wrote: >Hi Tom, > >Thanks for your response, but I think we miscommunicated on something -- >3/10/00 to date -- 'to short a basing pattern to call a cup' ? That's two >years. > >Tim commented it was 'breaking out from a short volatile flat base', but I >wasn't seeing a flat base on the daily chart, so went to the weekly. When I >look at the weekly chart, the entire chart looks like a cup almost at the >top of the right side with volume picking up significantly from 1/25/02 >forward. > >That's longer than WON's '7 to as many as 65 weeks (most are usually three >to six months)' and more correction than his 'usual percentage correction >from the absolute peak to the low point of the price pattern varies from 12% >or 15% to 33%,' but it looked so much like it fit the general pattern, I >thought I'd ask. > >-- Mona > > > > > Hi Mona, > > > > what you are seeing as a cup is, to me, to short a basing pattern > > to call a > > cup. I simply see it as volatility on profit taking on a stock > > that has run > > up pretty far, pretty fast. > > > > I bought just using short flat bases, on 12/31 at 8.13, and 1/8/02 at 8.99 > > when it didn't back off. I sold 2/19 at 11.47 primarily because I was > > concentrating more funds in technology, and was not comfortable with the > > automotive industry at the time. Where I sold it was in another flat line > > base, so the stock was not giving me a reason to sell, and I should still > > have waited for that reason, and made a lot more money. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@bellsouth.net > > AIM: TexWorley > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Mona Guarino" > > To: > > Sent: Wednesday, April 17, 2002 11:15 AM > > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] NOBL > > > > > > Tom, I know the feeling as to baling too soon and then wathing something > > climb . . . > > > > Question on c&p on this one. Looking at a weekly chart, I see a move up > > before 3/10/00 and then a cup just finishing it's right side now -- within > > 5% of the top of the left. So, I'd be looking for it to get to 16.75 and > > then form a handle. Or, was the activity 3/15 to 3/29 the handle already? > > > > Thanks, > > -- Mona > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley > > > Sent: Monday, April 15, 2002 10:10 PM > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NOBL > > > > > > > > > still can't believe I bought this one right, then bailed out > > WAY too soon. > > > > > > Tom Worley > > > stkguru@bellsouth.net > > > AIM: TexWorley > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: "Tim Fisher" > > > To: > > > Sent: Monday, April 15, 2002 10:39 AM > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] NOBL > > > > > > > > > Breaking out from a short volatile flat base....I bot 1/2 pos. > > Not a good > > > "M"! But I wanted to test the "small cap outperforming" theory - I had a > > > banner week last week. > > > > > > Tim Fisher > > > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > > > Owner, Fisher Fisheries, Ltd. > > > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > > > WWW http://OreRockOn.com > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. Tim Fisher Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site Owner, Fisher Fisheries, Ltd. mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 18 Apr 2002 10:20:44 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re. Earnings This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0078_01C1E6C2.B2C54080 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Nice article, jans, and a good one to add to the CANLSIM binder, thanks. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Spencer48@aol.com=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, April 18, 2002 10:06 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. Earnings People: I'm not sure who asked about the "validity" of earnings, but I = just read=20 an article on earnings (by the OnLine Investor) that might prove = helpful. =20 jans =20 "Earnings: Look A Little Deeper April 12, 2002 - Earnings for a company can come from various sources. = However, there are three ways that really count: operating earnings, = cost=20 cutting or a combination of the two. This earnings season, which will = be=20 watched more closely than any in recent history, make sure you look = behind=20 the headline number to find out how the earnings were made. A company can announce some great earnings, but the stock can still go = down.=20 Usually that's because those earnings came from a one time event = called an=20 extraordinary item. While the company will announce those earnings, = most=20 reporting services don't publish that number. Rather they give the = operating=20 earnings. Those are the earnings the company produced from the ongoing = business, not from sales of assets or subsidiaries. Another reason for = a dip=20 in the stock in spite of better earnings: the company will give a poor = outlook, suggesting that earnings won't be improving. The ongoing earnings are the ones you want to focus on this quarter = (and in=20 the future). And, just as important, you want to look at revenues as = well. If=20 you only have earnings increasing without a revenue increase it means = the=20 earnings are coming from cost cutting. That's fine for a while, but = earnings=20 can't continue to grow if they only come from cost cutting. There is = an=20 absolute limit to how much a company can cut costs before it hurts = rather=20 than helps the enterprise. What you would ideally like to see: an increase in revenues and an = even=20 better increase, in terms of percentages, in earnings. For example, if = you=20 saw a company that reported an increase of 5% in revenues and an = increase of=20 10% in operating earnings (with no extraordinary items), you would = know that=20 sales are increasing and the company is getting more efficient as it = grows.=20 That's the powerful one-two punch that growth investors want to see: = growth=20 in sales with better growth in earnings. It means that as the company = gets=20 larger, it will also get more profitable. At some point, that stops, = but good=20 growth companies can go on like that for years. There will be a lot of earnings coming out in the next three weeks. = There=20 will be lots of buzz, anguish and some pleasant surprises. When you = start=20 looking at your companies, make sure you look a little deeper than = just the=20 announced number. If you can see better revenues along with even = stronger=20 earnings, then your company is doing something that most others can't = in this=20 economy. That should make it a very worthwhile company to own. -Ted Allrich" - ------=_NextPart_000_0078_01C1E6C2.B2C54080 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Nice article, jans, and a good one to add to the CANLSIM = binder,=20 thanks.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Spencer48@aol.com
Sent: Thursday, April 18, 2002 = 10:06=20 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Re. = Earnings

People:

     I'm not sure = who asked=20 about the "validity" of earnings, but I just read
an article on = earnings=20 (by the OnLine Investor) that might prove helpful.  =
jans =20

"Earnings:
Look A Little Deeper
April 12, 2002 - = Earnings for a=20 company can come from various sources.
However, there are three = ways that=20 really count: operating earnings, cost
cutting or a combination of = the=20 two. This earnings season, which will be
watched more closely than = any in=20 recent history, make sure you look behind
the headline number to = find out=20 how the earnings were made.

A company can announce some great = earnings,=20 but the stock can still go down.
Usually that's because those = earnings=20 came from a one time event called an
extraordinary item. While the = company=20 will announce those earnings, most
reporting services don't = publish that=20 number. Rather they give the operating
earnings. Those are the = earnings=20 the company produced from the ongoing
business, not from sales of = assets=20 or subsidiaries. Another reason for a dip
in the stock in spite of = better=20 earnings: the company will give a poor
outlook, suggesting that = earnings=20 won't be improving.

The ongoing earnings are the ones you want = to focus=20 on this quarter (and in
the future). And, just as important, you = want to=20 look at revenues as well. If
you only have earnings increasing = without a=20 revenue increase it means the
earnings are coming from cost = cutting.=20 That's fine for a while, but earnings
can't continue to grow if = they only=20 come from cost cutting. There is an
absolute limit to how much a = company=20 can cut costs before it hurts rather
than helps the=20 enterprise.

What you would ideally like to see: an increase in = revenues=20 and an even
better increase, in terms of percentages, in earnings. = For=20 example, if you
saw a company that reported an increase of 5% in = revenues=20 and an increase of
10% in operating earnings (with no = extraordinary=20 items), you would know that
sales are increasing and the company = is=20 getting more efficient as it grows.
That's the powerful one-two = punch that=20 growth investors want to see: growth
in sales with better growth = in=20 earnings. It means that as the company gets
larger, it will also = get more=20 profitable. At some point, that stops, but good
growth companies = can go on=20 like that for years.

There will be a lot of earnings coming out = in the=20 next three weeks. There
will be lots of buzz, anguish and some = pleasant=20 surprises. When you start
looking at your companies, make sure you = look a=20 little deeper than just the
announced number. If you can see = better=20 revenues along with even stronger
earnings, then your company is = doing=20 something that most others can't in this
economy. That should make = it a=20 very worthwhile company to own.

-Ted = Allrich" - ------=_NextPart_000_0078_01C1E6C2.B2C54080-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 18 Apr 2002 11:21:10 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When to Buy Katherine: Provocative chart and interesting comments. But why do you believe BMS is in a pullback mode, and not beginning the end of a weakish uptrend? Your comment: "Volume is the inverse of what you would see in a basing..." is not how I view it. To me up volume seems to be overwhelming down volume-except at that one area in the recent nadir. And notice that the nadir came at the 50 support line-so I view it as institutions supporting the stock. However, I would agree that its uptrend is sickly and lackadaisical. From a chart perspective only, I'd say it is building a cup. From a Canslim perspective, I'd say it's a "no-go" (Not great earnings; negative sales revenues; Cash-Flow is nearly twice 2001's earnings, which to me indicates that the company is negligent in not investing their overflow of cash). jans In a message dated 4/17/2002 11:24:46 PM Eastern Daylight Time, jl@lessnau.com writes: << Hi John, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the stock is not forming a base, but is currently in a pullback. See a marked chart at: http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/BMS041702.jpg Katherine >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 18 Apr 2002 11:11:12 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NOBL sorry, I virtually never look back more than 12 months, missed that you were going back over two years. Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Mona Guarino" To: Sent: Thursday, April 18, 2002 1:50 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] NOBL Hi Tom, Thanks for your response, but I think we miscommunicated on something -- 3/10/00 to date -- 'to short a basing pattern to call a cup' ? That's two years. Tim commented it was 'breaking out from a short volatile flat base', but I wasn't seeing a flat base on the daily chart, so went to the weekly. When I look at the weekly chart, the entire chart looks like a cup almost at the top of the right side with volume picking up significantly from 1/25/02 forward. That's longer than WON's '7 to as many as 65 weeks (most are usually three to six months)' and more correction than his 'usual percentage correction from the absolute peak to the low point of the price pattern varies from 12% or 15% to 33%,' but it looked so much like it fit the general pattern, I thought I'd ask. - -- Mona > Hi Mona, > > what you are seeing as a cup is, to me, to short a basing pattern > to call a > cup. I simply see it as volatility on profit taking on a stock > that has run > up pretty far, pretty fast. > > I bought just using short flat bases, on 12/31 at 8.13, and 1/8/02 at 8.99 > when it didn't back off. I sold 2/19 at 11.47 primarily because I was > concentrating more funds in technology, and was not comfortable with the > automotive industry at the time. Where I sold it was in another flat line > base, so the stock was not giving me a reason to sell, and I should still > have waited for that reason, and made a lot more money. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@bellsouth.net > AIM: TexWorley > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Mona Guarino" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, April 17, 2002 11:15 AM > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] NOBL > > > Tom, I know the feeling as to baling too soon and then wathing something > climb . . . > > Question on c&p on this one. Looking at a weekly chart, I see a move up > before 3/10/00 and then a cup just finishing it's right side now -- within > 5% of the top of the left. So, I'd be looking for it to get to 16.75 and > then form a handle. Or, was the activity 3/15 to 3/29 the handle already? > > Thanks, > -- Mona > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley > > Sent: Monday, April 15, 2002 10:10 PM > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NOBL > > > > > > still can't believe I bought this one right, then bailed out > WAY too soon. > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@bellsouth.net > > AIM: TexWorley > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Tim Fisher" > > To: > > Sent: Monday, April 15, 2002 10:39 AM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] NOBL > > > > > > Breaking out from a short volatile flat base....I bot 1/2 pos. > Not a good > > "M"! But I wanted to test the "small cap outperforming" theory - I had a > > banner week last week. > > > > Tim Fisher > > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site > > Owner, Fisher Fisheries, Ltd. > > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com > > WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2321 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.