From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2376 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, May 1 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2376 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts RE: [CANSLIM] PMFG Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts [CANSLIM] Breakouts RE: [CANSLIM] Breakouts Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 01 May 2002 12:34:39 -0700 From: Ian Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... "Worden Note Worth Noting (4/30/02)" "Liars! Last Wednesday I reminded you of something I have been referring to every week or two for some time: "Can I think of anything good to tell you? Yes. Advances outnumber declines in Industry Groups spanning 30-days, 6-months, 9-months, and one year." Since then Groups advancing during the last 30-days have fallen marginally behind those declining, 133 to 105. But during the last six months advancing groups bury declining groups, 194 to 44. Take a look at charts for the SP-500 and the Nasdaq Composite (COMPQX). In each case the market average is approximately unchanged for that period. The averages are lying to us. I can't remember ever seeing such a marked dichotomy between the major averages and the breadth of the market. An overwhelming number of stocks have advanced over the past six months. The major averages give no hint of this. Now let's look at the last 12 months. This is even a bigger lie. The SP-500 is down about 14 percent and the Nasdaq about 23 percent. And yet, 145 groups have advanced while 93 have declined. Fifty-five percent more groups have advanced over the past year than have declined. And yet the major averages tell us the direction has been decisively down. What does it mean and what do we do about it? Hopefully, just what we have been doing. Playing it as a market of stocks and not get into a hand-wringing mode over the antics of the averages. This was a good day. I liked the volume increases. Are the averages turning? I don't know, but I doubt it." - From Don Worden of TC2000 fame. It is possible for one to apply common sense to this: The bubble sent the index stocks to valuations that were impossible to grow into in our lifetime. The excesses cannot be unwound all at once, and during the bear market rallies in the indexes, the rest of the universe uses that selling reprieve to make healthy advances. Two steps forward, one step back, so to speak. Ian - ----- Original Message ----- From: Dan Forant To: Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 9:47 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... > Wow, this is really big news. IBD's been jerking chains for a long time now. > > DanF > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Bill Triffet" > To: "canslim" > Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 12:12 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... > > > > Well friends, it seems that today's IBD confirms what I've thought about > the > > M in canslim - It's not necessarily based on the readings of the three > major > > market indexes ( a big departure from HTMMIS). > > > > I'm paraphrasing the last three paragraphs of "The Big Picture"(there are > > stiff copyright disclaimers at IBD): > > > > It will take a few days to see if the rotation BACK into the Dow, Naz, and > > S&P is valid. There should be a big move in heavier volume by the end of > the > > week to confirm it. > > > > It goes on to say it's a "nonissue" for growth investors since small and > > mid-cap stocks along with medical, consumer and defense are doing well > > despite the big averages. If they hold up, it says, the major averages > could > > improve. > > > > Also mentions "careful trading" with tight loss cutting is key. > > > > My point? IMHO, IBD is marketed for many types of investors. Pure canslim > > (if there is such a thing) is just one of them. > > > > I think perhaps it's time for me to look at growth investing with a > canslim > > approach. I'm starting to see several here have done this to great success > > (though with very close watching). Including things such as a lower but > > advancing RS as opposed to just a high rating and not be afraid to jump > into > > stocks in an upwards trending sector though the market is flat or down IF > > they have good fundies. > > > > Several times this and last year I saw stocks and groups moving ahead but > > stayed out due to the major indexes downward trend. Comments? > > > > Btw, for Fred, it suggests there's heavy distribution out of gold and > > precious metals by investors. > > > > Bill Triffet > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 May 2002 15:41:37 EDT From: Chazmoore@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... - --part1_10e.10980d0d.2a019ef1_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Katherine: Excellent summation. Charley - --part1_10e.10980d0d.2a019ef1_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Katherine: Excellent summation. Charley - --part1_10e.10980d0d.2a019ef1_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 May 2002 12:57:43 -0700 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... You hit the nail on the head. It's hard to believe so many non major index stocks have moved ahead to create this atmosphere. It says a lot about what the indexes are representing now. Time to reshuffle the deck? - -Bill - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Ian" To: Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 12:34 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... > "Worden Note Worth Noting (4/30/02)" > > > "Liars! > > Last Wednesday I reminded you of something I have been referring to every > week or two for some time: "Can I think of anything good to tell you? Yes. > Advances outnumber declines in Industry Groups spanning 30-days, 6-months, > 9-months, and one year." Since then Groups advancing during the last 30-days > have fallen marginally behind those declining, 133 to 105. But during the > last six months advancing groups bury declining groups, 194 to 44. Take a > look at charts for the SP-500 and the Nasdaq Composite (COMPQX). In each > case the market average is approximately unchanged for that period. The > averages are lying to us. I can't remember ever seeing such a marked > dichotomy between the major averages and the breadth of the market. An > overwhelming number of stocks have advanced over the past six months. The > major averages give no hint of this. Now let's look at the last 12 months. > This is even a bigger lie. The SP-500 is down about 14 percent and the > Nasdaq about 23 percent. And yet, 145 groups have advanced while 93 have > declined. Fifty-five percent more groups have advanced over the past year > than have declined. And yet the major averages tell us the direction has > been decisively down. What does it mean and what do we do about it? > Hopefully, just what we have been doing. Playing it as a market of stocks > and not get into a hand-wringing mode over the antics of the averages. This > was a good day. I liked the volume increases. Are the averages turning? I > don't know, but I doubt it." - From Don Worden of TC2000 fame. > > > It is possible for one to apply common sense to this: The bubble sent the > index stocks to valuations that were impossible to grow into in our > lifetime. The excesses cannot be unwound all at once, and during the bear > market rallies in the indexes, the rest of the universe uses that selling > reprieve to make healthy advances. Two steps forward, one step back, so to > speak. > > > Ian > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Dan Forant > To: > Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 9:47 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... > > > > Wow, this is really big news. IBD's been jerking chains for a long time > now. > > > > DanF > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Bill Triffet" > > To: "canslim" > > Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 12:12 PM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... > > > > > > > Well friends, it seems that today's IBD confirms what I've thought about > > the > > > M in canslim - It's not necessarily based on the readings of the three > > major > > > market indexes ( a big departure from HTMMIS). > > > > > > I'm paraphrasing the last three paragraphs of "The Big Picture"(there > are > > > stiff copyright disclaimers at IBD): > > > > > > It will take a few days to see if the rotation BACK into the Dow, Naz, > and > > > S&P is valid. There should be a big move in heavier volume by the end of > > the > > > week to confirm it. > > > > > > It goes on to say it's a "nonissue" for growth investors since small and > > > mid-cap stocks along with medical, consumer and defense are doing well > > > despite the big averages. If they hold up, it says, the major averages > > could > > > improve. > > > > > > Also mentions "careful trading" with tight loss cutting is key. > > > > > > My point? IMHO, IBD is marketed for many types of investors. Pure > canslim > > > (if there is such a thing) is just one of them. > > > > > > I think perhaps it's time for me to look at growth investing with a > > canslim > > > approach. I'm starting to see several here have done this to great > success > > > (though with very close watching). Including things such as a lower but > > > advancing RS as opposed to just a high rating and not be afraid to jump > > into > > > stocks in an upwards trending sector though the market is flat or down > IF > > > they have good fundies. > > > > > > Several times this and last year I saw stocks and groups moving ahead > but > > > stayed out due to the major indexes downward trend. Comments? > > > > > > Btw, for Fred, it suggests there's heavy distribution out of gold and > > > precious metals by investors. > > > > > > Bill Triffet > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 01 May 2002 14:16:26 -0700 From: Ian Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts Often, I keep a small list of 'CANSLIM' darlings as potential short candidates - usually things with average balance sheets and huge valuations. One of those that has been on my list for a while is PFCB. In the last couple of weeks, PFCB has had 4 exceptional volume days without any meaningful advance - even though each day was 'green'. IMHO, that is the distribution that I have been looking for. I have a short here in the high $72's, that I will stop out if it goes through $74.50 from here. WIth a split upcoming, it is easily possible that I get stopped out - but I am risking just 1 1/2 points, and my reward could be 20 points +. PFCB trades at what I consider an extremely high valuation, given their cash generation, in a capital intensive business. If I had been long the stock, I would have taken the recent advanceless volume days as sell signals. We'll see. Ian - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 May 2002 16:08:47 -0500 From: Dave Wulf Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PMFG In defense of "those professionals" you continue to beat the socks off....gimme a break. Not nearly so easy as you make it seem "part-time". DWulf > ---------- > From: Tom Worley[SMTP:stkguru@bellsouth.net] > Reply To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 5:42 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PMFG > > I disagree. WON was asked in his daily Q&A, which someone posted here, > whether a basing formation below the high was still useable. As I > understood > his answer, not only was it useable, but he didn't mention it having to > put > the handle or other pivot over the 200 DMA first. The question, as I > recall, > was mostly in reference to big names like Cisco, which I personally don't > expect will be the future leaders most of us will be buying, but will > still > be sought by the managers of our money stuck in mutual funds in 401K plans > (aaarrgggghhhhh!!!, won't those "professionals" ever learn how to invest? > I > am so tired of beating their socks off just doing it as a hobby part time, > and they are supposed to be doing it as a living) > > Tom Worley > stkguru@bellsouth.net > AIM: TexWorley > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA]" > To: > Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 2:18 PM > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] PMFG > > > One comment about the chart: PMFG is trading below it's 200 DMA. I > believe > that disqualifies it as a CANSLIM breakout candidate. > > John C. > > -----Original Message----- > From: J. Lobatto [mailto:jlobatto@nyc.rr.com] > Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 2:02 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PMFG > > > Ian, > > PMFG looks interesting. Taking a look at the chart which is an extended > downward sloping base, where would you set the pivot point; back at the > July > high of 23.75 or sometime after that at a lower price? > > Jon > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Ian" > To: > Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 12:28 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] PMFG > > > > Hi all: > > > > I thought I would throw out PMFG as a CANSLIM watchlist candidate, based > on > > the strength of their historical and current revenue and EPS growth. > They > > announced earnings today - > > http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020430/datu033_1.html - another strong Q, > > showing 58% revenue growth, and 167% income growth, and $0.38 EPS. The > > caveat in todays report is the declining backlog (69 M to 63M) from last > Q. > > > > They are a 'traditional' CANSLIM candidate, in that there are just > 3,000,000 > > shares outstanding. The 2-year weekly chart is starting to look > > interesting - the daily chart appears random, as the stock is highly > > illiquid, volatile and subject to excessive spreads. > > > > IF AND ONLY IF a significant (20000+) change in average daily volume is > > sustained, then it would meet all of my personal cirteria as an > exceptional > > CANSLIM candidate. But that is a big 'IF' - it really needs a quantum > change > > in volume - right now, it could easily collapse with one block seller. > > > > PMFG is one to add to the watchlist - looking for a sustained daily > volume > > increase, and a price move up through resistance levels in the $18-$23 > area. > > > > > > Ian > > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 01 May 2002 15:13:14 -0600 From: Warren Keuffel Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... Not to be flip or to create a self-referential definition, but IMO secular is the opposite of cyclical. The idea is that basic materials, heavy manufacturing, etc. are the so-called cyclical industries (i.e., performance is tied to interest rate behavior) and the rest are secular. Where the name came from, I have no clue. Warren Mike Gibbons wrote: > I've seen the term "secular bull" and "secular bear" several times on > the board but don't understand it. What other kinds of market are > there - catholic? anglican? > > > > I'm not being fascetious, just curious. > > > > Aloha, > > > > Mike Gibbons > Proactive Technologies, LLC > > http://www.proactech.com > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Katherine Malm > Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 7:25 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... > > Hi Bill, > > > > You've brought up an excellent issue and that is "what *is* > CANSLIM"? I think reading HTMMIS is a lot like reading the Bible. > Each person can read the same text, the same translation, and they > will come away with a different interpretation of "what it means." > I reread HTMMIS constantly, seeing new passages and new points of > view given my new experiences over time. In the last couple of > years I've come to believe that there is a core set of "golden > rules" at the heart of CANSLIM that are universal to the style, > but the implementation of those golden rules may be different from > one person to the next. Contrary to DanF's point of view, I don't > see IBD as "jerking our chain" but instead see this as proof of my > point of view. That is, even within the IBD (and CANSLIM), there > are seeming contradictions. Their 20 points will say one thing, > but they will give examples of winning stocks that demonstrate > exceptions. Bottom line for me is that there's a big difference > between "restrictive rules" and "general guidelines" and there's > no substitute for understanding the core concepts that make up the > CANSLIM style. For example, in a secular Bull where nearly every > stock is in an uptrend and above the 200dMA, the biggest task is > to pick "the best" of those going up. During downtrending or > sideways markets, the first task is to identify those > stocks/groups that are technically superior, and then, within > those groups to find the best fundamental stories. The difference > between those 2 markets is simply that the risk of being wrong in > a secular bull vs downtrending/sideways markets is smaller, so the > tuition for making errors is smaller. But the tuition is *always* > there, just more severe and obvious in tougher markets. > > > > This is how I'd express the "core spirit of CANSLIM": > > > > -Use technical strength to draw your eye to stocks that are > working. This can be expressed by relationship to intermediate > term moving averages (50/200 day MA's), rising RS, new highs, > accumulation/distribution, up/down ratios, strong groups, > increasing institutional ownership, strong style subsectors of the > market, etc. Make purchases only on appropriate technical patterns. > > -Select only stocks with superior forward growth estimates. Yes, > estimates can be wrong, but if the technicals are also strong, at > least the market is confirming this expectation (for the moment). > Confirm these estimates with appropriate due diligence so that > you understand what makes this growth possible. > > -Select only stocks with superior financials. That means not only > a demonstrated ability to grow earnings and revenues, but > financial stability that will allow them to weather the tough > times and/or continue their strategy for continued growth. That > means a strong balance sheet, sufficient cash flow, excellent > returns on equity invested, etc. > > -Select only stocks with sufficient liquidity to allow easy > entry/exit when the time is right technically. > > -Preserve capital above all else. When you make a mistake, move on > and reinvest the remaining capital in what *is* working. > > -Know how to read a chart so that you can exit and keep profits at > the appropriate time. In secular bull markets, you can ride out > consolidations knowing that there is a greater likelihood that the > same stocks and groups will continue their upward trek. In > downtrending/sideways markets, you cannot afford to sit through > the consolidation because the risk that the stock/sector/style > will fall out of favor is greater. Step aside as the consolidation > starts, move to strength elsewhere, come back when/if the > consolidation ends and continues upward. If a secular bull starts > again, you'll be in the right stocks already and can just ride > them longer. > > -Know how to identify and track a group of stocks that gives you > the "pulse of your market." If the pulse is poor, stand aside or > learn to short them as they fail. > > -Always do post analysis and use successes and failures as > building blocks to becoming a better investor. Be honest about > what you are doing right or wrong. It's just like budgeting or > dieting. Obviously, if you're gaining weight or saving less than > your plan, you need to change something. > > > > Katherine > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Bill Triffet > > To: canslim > > Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 11:12 AM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... > > > Well friends, it seems that today's IBD confirms what I've > thought about the > M in canslim - It's not necessarily based on the readings of > the three major > market indexes ( a big departure from HTMMIS). > > I'm paraphrasing the last three paragraphs of "The Big > Picture"(there are > stiff copyright disclaimers at IBD): > > It will take a few days to see if the rotation BACK into the > Dow, Naz, and > S&P is valid. There should be a big move in heavier volume by > the end of the > week to confirm it. > > It goes on to say it's a "nonissue" for growth investors since > small and > mid-cap stocks along with medical, consumer and defense are > doing well > despite the big averages. If they hold up, it says, the major > averages could > improve. > > Also mentions "careful trading" with tight loss cutting is key. > > My point? IMHO, IBD is marketed for many types of investors. > Pure canslim > (if there is such a thing) is just one of them. > > I think perhaps it's time for me to look at growth investing > with a canslim > approach. I'm starting to see several here have done this to > great success > (though with very close watching). Including things such as a > lower but > advancing RS as opposed to just a high rating and not be > afraid to jump into > stocks in an upwards trending sector though the market is flat > or down IF > they have good fundies. > > Several times this and last year I saw stocks and groups > moving ahead but > stayed out due to the major indexes downward trend. Comments? > > Btw, for Fred, it suggests there's heavy distribution out of > gold and > precious metals by investors. > > Bill Triffet > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 May 2002 17:20:46 -0400 From: "J. Lobatto" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts Sounds interesting. One thing I noticed is that there seems to be a short interest of about ten days trading. This is pretty high, so obviously many folks concur with your evaluation. However, if it does break out to a new high and these short sellers decide to cover, it could be a nasty run to the upside. I've also noticed in the past that high short interest often coincides with volatile whipsaw moves. In any case... good luck. Jon - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Ian" To: Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 5:16 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts > Often, I keep a small list of 'CANSLIM' darlings as potential short > candidates - usually things with average balance sheets and huge valuations. > One of those that has been on my list for a while is PFCB. > > In the last couple of weeks, PFCB has had 4 exceptional volume days without > any meaningful advance - even though each day was 'green'. IMHO, that is the > distribution that I have been looking for. I have a short here in the high > $72's, that I will stop out if it goes through $74.50 from here. > > WIth a split upcoming, it is easily possible that I get stopped out - but I > am risking just 1 1/2 points, and my reward could be 20 points +. PFCB > trades at what I consider an extremely high valuation, given their cash > generation, in a capital intensive business. If I had been long the stock, I > would have taken the recent advanceless volume days as sell signals. > > > We'll see. > > Ian > > > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 May 2002 18:01:33 -0400 From: "Winston Little" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts I have also observed the whip-saw associated with high short interest. Another item to watch is that sometimes the price will drop (buy the rumor sellon the news) the day and day after the split and then head higher. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "J. Lobatto" To: Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 5:20 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts > Sounds interesting. One thing I noticed is that there seems to be a short > interest of about ten days trading. This is pretty high, so obviously many > folks concur with your evaluation. However, if it does break out to a new > high and these short sellers decide to cover, it could be a nasty run to the > upside. I've also noticed in the past that high short interest often > coincides with volatile whipsaw moves. In any case... good luck. > > Jon > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Ian" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 5:16 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts > > > > Often, I keep a small list of 'CANSLIM' darlings as potential short > > candidates - usually things with average balance sheets and huge > valuations. > > One of those that has been on my list for a while is PFCB. > > > > In the last couple of weeks, PFCB has had 4 exceptional volume days > without > > any meaningful advance - even though each day was 'green'. IMHO, that is > the > > distribution that I have been looking for. I have a short here in the high > > $72's, that I will stop out if it goes through $74.50 from here. > > > > WIth a split upcoming, it is easily possible that I get stopped out - but > I > > am risking just 1 1/2 points, and my reward could be 20 points +. PFCB > > trades at what I consider an extremely high valuation, given their cash > > generation, in a capital intensive business. If I had been long the stock, > I > > would have taken the recent advanceless volume days as sell signals. > > > > > > We'll see. > > > > Ian > > > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 May 2002 15:54:40 -0700 (PDT) From: Eric Jaenike Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakouts - --0-727953521-1020293680=:79961 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii M isn't there in the major indices, although several small cap indices have been performing well, as we all know. Interesting breakouts yesterday and today: DRS WSH USPI (yesterday) CCRN UAG (today). CCRN and UAG in particular caught my attention. Strong industry action in CCRN (see AHS, their most direct competitor, and PDX). Good numbers, solid c and h. U/D looks skewed down by secondary on 3/21. UAG also good industry action (SAH GPI), tight c and h. I like the broad themes for both. CCRN- medical play, outsourcing trend. UAG- consumer driven, strong numbers released by GM today on sales. Questionable M is biggest concern, significant number of breakout failures (ATPX TASR CACI POSS MIMS RMCI JDAS etc). Regardless, considering these two carefully. Any opinions? Thanks, Eric - --------------------------------- Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Health - your guide to health and wellness - --0-727953521-1020293680=:79961 Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii

M isn't there in the major indices, although several small cap indices have been performing well, as we all know. Interesting breakouts yesterday and today: DRS WSH USPI (yesterday) CCRN UAG (today).

CCRN and UAG in particular caught my attention. Strong industry action in CCRN (see AHS, their most direct competitor, and PDX). Good numbers, solid c and h. U/D looks skewed down by secondary on 3/21. UAG also good industry action (SAH GPI), tight c and h.

I like the broad themes for both. CCRN- medical play, outsourcing trend. UAG- consumer driven, strong numbers released by GM today on sales.

Questionable M is biggest concern, significant number of breakout failures (ATPX TASR CACI POSS MIMS RMCI JDAS etc). Regardless, considering these two carefully. Any opinions?

Thanks,

Eric


Do You Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Health - your guide to health and wellness - --0-727953521-1020293680=:79961-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 May 2002 19:12:51 -0400 From: "Duke Miller" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Breakouts This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_005D_01C1F144.333CFE70 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Eric: Using the CANSLIM evaluation tool (http://www.cwhcharts.com/canslim/canslim.php) CCRN scores a poor 4/11. UAG, 7/11, rates a "worth considering," but falls short on ROE (9.2%) and is a bit high on the institutional holdings at over 60%. Your concerns about the market and failed breakouts is well founded. Duke - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Eric Jaenike Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 6:55 PM To: canslim group Subject: [CANSLIM] Breakouts M isn't there in the major indices, although several small cap indices have been performing well, as we all know. Interesting breakouts yesterday and today: DRS WSH USPI (yesterday) CCRN UAG (today). CCRN and UAG in particular caught my attention. Strong industry action in CCRN (see AHS, their most direct competitor, and PDX). Good numbers, solid c and h. U/D looks skewed down by secondary on 3/21. UAG also good industry action (SAH GPI), tight c and h. I like the broad themes for both. CCRN- medical play, outsourcing trend. UAG- consumer driven, strong numbers released by GM today on sales. Questionable M is biggest concern, significant number of breakout failures (ATPX TASR CACI POSS MIMS RMCI JDAS etc). Regardless, considering these two carefully. Any opinions? Thanks, Eric _____ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Health - your guide to health and wellness - ------=_NextPart_000_005D_01C1F144.333CFE70 Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message
Eric:
 
Using the = CANSLIM=20 evaluation tool (http://www.cwhchart= s.com/canslim/canslim.php)=20 CCRN scores a poor 4/11. 
 
UAG, 7/11, = rates a "worth=20 considering," but falls short on ROE (9.2%) and is a bit high on = the=20 institutional holdings at over 60%.
 
Your concerns = about the=20 market and failed breakouts is well founded. 
 
Duke =20
-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20 On Behalf Of Eric Jaenike
Sent: Wednesday, May 01, = 2002 6:55=20 PM
To: canslim group
Subject: [CANSLIM]=20 Breakouts

M isn't there in the major indices, although several small cap = indices have=20 been performing well, as we all know. Interesting breakouts yesterday = and=20 today: DRS WSH USPI (yesterday) CCRN UAG (today).

CCRN and UAG in particular caught my attention. Strong industry = action in=20 CCRN (see AHS, their most direct competitor, and PDX). Good numbers, = solid c=20 and h. U/D looks skewed down by secondary on 3/21. UAG also good = industry=20 action (SAH GPI), tight c and h.

I like the broad themes for both. CCRN- medical play, outsourcing = trend.=20 UAG- consumer driven, strong numbers released by GM today on = sales.

Questionable M is biggest concern, significant number of breakout = failures=20 (ATPX TASR CACI POSS MIMS RMCI JDAS etc). Regardless, considering = these two=20 carefully. Any opinions?

Thanks,

Eric


Do You Yahoo!?
Yahoo! = Health=20 - your guide to health and wellness
- ------=_NextPart_000_005D_01C1F144.333CFE70-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 1 May 2002 19:19:21 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... I disagree, Winston I did very well in 2001 applying my version of CANSLIM, and I doubt anyone would call that a bull market. I did it with buy and hold throughout the year, I doubt I sold any position less than a month after purchase, some were held the entire year. Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Winston Little" To: Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 12:44 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... My observations: - - true CANSLIM works well in a "bull market'. - - ALL markets have issues which are rising and some which are falling. (In bull market more rise than fall and the life of a rise is very long). - - we are currently in a rotational market, with the life of a trend varying from one or two days to at most one month - - in this era only the fast survive, a good example is that of OVER during the past week. The quickest way to lose money is buy and hold . It is similar to grabbing a handful of smoke and hoping to keep it. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Bill Triffet" To: "canslim" Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 12:12 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... > Well friends, it seems that today's IBD confirms what I've thought about the > M in canslim - It's not necessarily based on the readings of the three major > market indexes ( a big departure from HTMMIS). > > I'm paraphrasing the last three paragraphs of "The Big Picture"(there are > stiff copyright disclaimers at IBD): > > It will take a few days to see if the rotation BACK into the Dow, Naz, and > S&P is valid. There should be a big move in heavier volume by the end of the > week to confirm it. > > It goes on to say it's a "nonissue" for growth investors since small and > mid-cap stocks along with medical, consumer and defense are doing well > despite the big averages. If they hold up, it says, the major averages could > improve. > > Also mentions "careful trading" with tight loss cutting is key. > > My point? IMHO, IBD is marketed for many types of investors. Pure canslim > (if there is such a thing) is just one of them. > > I think perhaps it's time for me to look at growth investing with a canslim > approach. I'm starting to see several here have done this to great success > (though with very close watching). Including things such as a lower but > advancing RS as opposed to just a high rating and not be afraid to jump into > stocks in an upwards trending sector though the market is flat or down IF > they have good fundies. > > Several times this and last year I saw stocks and groups moving ahead but > stayed out due to the major indexes downward trend. Comments? > > Btw, for Fred, it suggests there's heavy distribution out of gold and > precious metals by investors. > > Bill Triffet > > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2376 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.