Message

I have=20 included my last forecast at the end of this post for reference=20 purposes.

The=20 S&P entered my low turn time window yesterday and hit a lower = probability=20 target price of 1054 today also the NAZ, SPX, & the RUT all had = price=20 reversals today or if you prefer =93pollywogs=94 (I am not a candle = stick reader=20 so I am not sure if the volume was there to actually produce = =93pollywogs=94 or=20 not, but today was a reversal day for all of these indexes in my = terminology=20 none the less).

Despite=20 hitting a price target and creating a reversal bar on the same day I = still=20 believe that we have not quite yet reached the bottom of this move. My = higher=20 probability price target range still makes for a more complete = technical=20 package. Although, I think given the current price structure the lower = part of=20 my target range is not likely to be reached in fact 1035 =96 1038 is = more likely=20 to be the bottom.

If in=20 fact today was the bottom of the current down swing there is a strong=20 possibility that M will advance for a couple of days and then = challenge=20 today=92s low later in the low turn time window which closes on=20 6-10.

Duke=20 it could be getting very close to time to indulge your=20 =93burn=94.

-----Original=20 Message-----
From: = Hill,=20 Ernie
Sent: = Tuesday, May 21,=20 2002 8:37 PM
To:=20 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM]=20 M

It=20 appears that the high turn has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 = and=20 then again touched that level on an intra-day basis yesterday. The = turn has=20 apparently come early in the window just 4.41 points shy of the = projected=20 price level. There is a reasonable possibility that the market will = move back=20 up near the turn high over the next couple of days before resuming the = move=20 down. There is a small chance that the market may even slightly exceed = the=20 high and actually make the turn later in the window. If this happens = don=92t be=20 fooled it is only a head fake.

The=20 next low turn has two possible time windows for the turn. The first = and most=20 likely window is within four days of 6-4. The target price range is = 1027 to=20 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 yields 79.51 points = subtract this=20 number from the high of 1106.59 and we arrive at the low target of = 1027.08. A=20 61.8% retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price = of=20 1033.46. If this projected down move does terminate in the projected = target=20 range, it has the potential to be the end point of the correction for = the=20 entire move from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for a = significant and=20 sustainable move up.