From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2504 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Tuesday, June 18 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2504 In this issue: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History RE: [CANSLIM] capitulation??? - was -Worley's Weekend Weeview RE: [CANSLIM] british open [CANSLIM] Holy Cow....It's a New Era Indeed... ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 18 Jun 2002 18:29:56 -0400 From: "Duke Miller" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0055_01C216F6.2768F130 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Been in the Keys and just back today with 78 Canslim messages to peruse. You guys must really be bored! Anyway, really enjoying this topic. Can't resist interjecting here. The 0% along with the negative single digits (as well as negative double digits) cannot be eliminated. Why? What if "it" was -20% to start and is now -11%? Isn't that a single digit growth of 9%? Yawn. Duke - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 11:09 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" History not in context, because "growth" was specified. That requirement also eliminates 0%. - ----- Original Message ----- From: Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA] To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 10:02 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History Kelly, I also wondered whether -1% through -9% could be considered "single digit". Cheers, John C. - -----Original Message----- From: Kelly Short [mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com] Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 10:00 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History Group, When I posed the "M" History question yesterday I was simply seeking information, but apparently I began a full raging debate. (Or maybe no one wants to focus on the daily market movements right now) I am pleased to see that everyone in the group feels free to share their insights, resources, and conjectures. Thank you everyone for sending me links to online resources. Winston- your breakdown of the past century was extremely interesting- thank you for sharing it with the group. Fanus and Charley- you both bring up good points and if the two of you ever decide to duke it out in person please let me know in advance- I'd like to put some money on squares. As for the single digit debate- so far we've established that 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8% and 9% are indeed single digits- but how about 0%? Well- it's Friday and the market is already down 172 points by 9:00am. My watch portfolio has checked out and left for Vegas. I think I'll just go download some pirated music. Have a great weekend everyone! Kelly - -----Original Message----- From: Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA] [mailto:john.cefaloni@us.army.mil] Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 7:39 AM To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History Uhhh, so are 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 6%, 7%, 8% and 9%. - -----Original Message----- From: Dan Forant [mailto:dforant1@nycap.rr.com] Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 8:01 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" History Ummm, 5% is a single digit - ----- Original Message ----- From: Hill, Ernie To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2002 10:13 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History I believe what he said was single digit growth. E - -----Original Message----- From: Dan Forant [mailto:dforant1@nycap.rr.com] Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2002 8:24 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" History Didn't Buffer also predict just 5% market growth for years to come?? DanF - ----- Original Message ----- From: Hill, Ernie To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2002 12:59 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History I don't have a resource to contribute at this time but, I have seen two interviews lately on CNBC one with Art Cashin (an "experienced" floor trader) and the other with Warren Buffet. Both of these men made reference to a 17.6 year cycle and point out that the major bull market that ended in 2000 began in 1983. They both expect the next 17.6 years to be lean by comparison. Mr. buffet even went on to talk about how the market has performed all the way back to 1929, and pointed out the influence of this cycle and how the market was affected by it despite how the economy was performing. Unfortunately I did not have my full attention focused on either interview so I missed much of what was said about specific time periods and how the market related to the economy during those time periods. However, what I did hear did not sound very encouraging for the next 15 years! E - -----Original Message----- From: Kelly Short [mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com] Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2002 10:46 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" History Since "M" is not being nice- I have focused my attention in the short-term on "M's" history over the past 100 - 150 years to try to better understand what makes this machine tick. I have found a couple of resources that cover this topic, provide timelines, etc. but would appreciate any known quality resources the group has used in the past for such purposes. Kelly Short Business Development Manager Neoris, Inc. (817) 731-0995 mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com http://www.neoris.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. If you have received this email in error please notify the sender. ****************************************************************** ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. If you have received this email in error please notify the sender. ****************************************************************** _____ For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for viruses. Visit us at http://www.neoris.com/ _____ - ------=_NextPart_000_0055_01C216F6.2768F130 Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message
Been in the = Keys and just=20 back today with 78 Canslim messages to peruse.  You guys must = really be=20 bored! 
 
Anyway, really = enjoying=20 this topic.  Can't resist interjecting here.  The 0% along = with the=20 negative single digits (as well as negative double digits) cannot be=20 eliminated.  Why?  What if "it" was -20% to start and is now=20 - -11%?  Isn't that a single digit growth of 9%?
 
Yawn.
 
Duke
-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20 On Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 = 11:09=20 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 "M" History

not in context, because "growth" was = specified. That=20 requirement also eliminates 0%.
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Cefaloni, John L Jr.=20 [AMSTA-AR-WEA]
Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 10:02 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History

Kelly,
 
I=20 also wondered whether -1% through -9% could be considered "single=20 digit".
 
Cheers,
John=20 C.
-----Original Message-----
From: Kelly Short=20 [mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com]
Sent: Friday, June 14, = 2002 10:00=20 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Subject:=20 RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History

Group,
 
When I posed the "M" History question yesterday I was = simply seeking=20 information, but apparently I began a full raging debate. (Or maybe = no one=20 wants to focus on the daily market movements right now) I am pleased = to see=20 that everyone in the group feels free to share their insights, = resources,=20 and conjectures. Thank you everyone for sending me links to online=20 resources. Winston- your breakdown of the past century was extremely = interesting- thank you for sharing it with the group. Fanus and = Charley- you=20 both bring up good points and if the two of you ever decide to duke = it out=20 in person please let me know in advance- I'd like to put some money = on=20 squares. As for the single digit debate- so far we've established = that 1%,=20 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8% and 9% are indeed single digits- but how = about=20 0%?
 
Well- it's Friday and the market is already down 172 points = by=20 9:00am. My watch portfolio has checked out and left for Vegas. I = think I'll=20 just go download some pirated music. Have a great weekend=20 everyone!
 
Kelly
-----Original Message-----
From: Cefaloni, John = L Jr.=20 [AMSTA-AR-WEA] [mailto:john.cefaloni@us.army.mil]
Sent: = Friday,=20 June 14, 2002 7:39 AM
To:=20 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M"=20 History

Uhhh, so are 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 6%, 7%, 8% and = 9%.
-----Original Message-----
From: Dan Forant=20 [mailto:dforant1@nycap.rr.com]
Sent: Friday, June 14, = 2002=20 8:01 AM
To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re:=20 [CANSLIM] "M" History

Ummm, 5% is a single = digit
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Hill, Ernie
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'= =20
Sent: Thursday, June = 13, 2002=20 10:13 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] = "M"=20 History

I = believe=20 what he said was single digit = growth.

 

E

 

-----Original=20 Message-----
From:=20 Dan Forant [mailto:dforant1@nycap.rr.com]
Sent: = Thursday, June = 13,=20 2002 = 8:24=20 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = "M"=20 History

 

Didn't Buffer=20 also predict just 5% market growth for years to come??=20

 

DanF

-----=20 Original Message -----

From:=20 Hill, Ernie=20

Sent:=20 Thursday, June = 13,=20 2002 = 12:59=20 PM

Subject:=20 RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History

 

I don't have=20 a resource to contribute at this time but, I have seen two=20 interviews lately on CNBC one with Art Cashin (an = "experienced"=20 floor trader) and the other with Warren Buffet. Both of = these men=20 made reference to a 17.6 year cycle and point out that the = major=20 bull market that ended in 2000 began in=20 1983.

 

They both=20 expect the next 17.6 years to be lean by comparison. Mr. = buffet even=20 went on to talk about how the market has performed all the = way back=20 to 1929, and pointed out the influence of this cycle and how = the=20 market was affected by it despite how the economy was=20 performing.

 

Unfortunately I did not have my = full=20 attention focused on either interview so I missed much of = what was=20 said about specific time periods and how the market related = to the=20 economy during those time = periods.

 

However,=20 what I did hear did not sound very encouraging for the next = 15=20 years!

 

E=20

 

-----Original = Message-----
From: Kelly=20 Short [mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com]
Sent: Thursday, = June 13,=20 2002 10:46 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject:=20 [CANSLIM] "M" History

 

Since "M" is=20 not being nice- I have focused my attention in the = short-term on=20 "M's" history over the past 100 - 150 years to try to better = understand what makes this machine tick. I have found a = couple of=20 resources that cover this topic, provide timelines, etc. but = would=20 appreciate any known quality resources the group has used in = the=20 past for such purposes.

 

Kelly=20 Short

 

Business=20 Development Manager

Neoris,=20 Inc.

(817)=20 731-0995

mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com

http://www.neoris.com

 

 

-

-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email=20 "majordomo@xmission.com"

-In the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim"=20 or

-"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes = in your=20 email.



*****************************************************************= *
This=20 email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20
Corporation=20 are confidential and intended solely for the=20
use=20 of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.=20
If=20 you have received this email in error please notify the=20
sender.
*****************************************************************= *



********************************************************= **********
This=20 email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20
Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the =
use=20 of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.
If = you=20 have received this email in error please notify the=20 =
sender.
**********************************************************= ********
For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for = viruses.=20

Visit us at http://www.neoris.com/=20

- ------=_NextPart_000_0055_01C216F6.2768F130-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 18 Jun 2002 18:32:18 -0400 From: "Duke Miller" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] capitulation??? - was -Worley's Weekend Weeview Yes, but I don't know if it's a left turn or a right turn. Add to that the fact that three right turns create a left turn, and you may have....never mind. Duke - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Kent Norman Sent: Sunday, June 16, 2002 11:16 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] capitulation??? - was -Worley's Weekend Weeview I have been noticing a trend in the business news and this group. I feel that capitulation has either happened or will happen soon. How's that for ambiguous? Think I have a chance in politics ;-) Does the group think we are near a turn? Kent Norman - --- Patrick Wahl wrote: > At least in the short term you may be correct, good chart here on > market sentiment, also I notice the Vix is getting up to a fairly high > level, back in April it was near > several year lows, and we know what has happened since then. > > http://www.vtoreport.com/other/sentiment.htm > > On 15 Jun 2002 at 13:45, Norman wrote: > > > THAT'S IT!! > > > > If our perennial bull Tom is frustrated then can the bottom be far > off?! > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe > canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ===== Opportunities always look bigger going than coming. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! - Official partner of 2002 FIFA World Cup http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 18 Jun 2002 18:34:17 -0400 From: "Duke Miller" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] british open C'mon Tiger, grand slam and we can all retire (again). - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Patrick Wahl Sent: Monday, June 17, 2002 1:04 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] british open Get ready, I think its in 5 weeks. This was at CBS Marketwatch today - Meanwhile, HL Camp & Co. analyzed what it dubbed the "Tiger Effect." The Florida-based trading and research firm said that for years, many have claimed a "Super Bowl Effect" on the markets. But HL Camp observed that since 1996 -- when Tiger Woods turned pro and joined the PGA Tour -- the Dow has closed up 61 percent of the time the day after he scored a PGA victory. And the Dow closed up 71 percent of the time the day after Woods won one of the majors. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 18 Jun 2002 18:31:34 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: [CANSLIM] Holy Cow....It's a New Era Indeed... This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0010_01C216F6.5FE675A0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Check it out!!! The highlighting is mine.... - --Katherine The Big Picture Wednesday, June 19, 2002 Tech Stocks Take A Break But Cyclicals Edge Higher BY DAVID SAITO-CHUNG INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY Tech stocks decided Tuesday to rest after two straight days of gains. = Cyclicals thought otherwise. Housing starts surged 11.6% in May, well above the 2.9% rise economists = had expected. Core consumer prices, meanwhile, rose 0.2% the same month, = matching estimates. Translation: good news for industrial stocks. The Nasdaq started higher, but ran out of fuel by midmorning. It ended = off 0.7%. Volume ran just a tad lower, a sign that heavy hitters weren't = eager to sell stocks. In contrast, the S&P 500 edged up 0.1%, helped by retail, building, = machinery and energy names. The Dow gained 0.2%. The Amex Morgan Stanley = cyclical index marched ahead 0.6%. NYSE trade cooled as well. Small caps also held ground. The S&P SmallCap 600 index, up 3.2% in the = previous two sessions, lost less than 0.1% Tuesday. On Thursday, the General Markets & Sectors page in the print edition = will feature for the first time the S&P 600 SmallCap index chart on a = daily basis. It will be sandwiched between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 = charts. The Dow will appear at the bottom of the page on Mondays only. = Four more indexes will fill in this slot on a rotating basis during the = rest of the week. In the 1890s, Charles Henry Dow showed vision in creating an index of = stocks as a barometer of the overall U.S. economy. By 1928, his = industrial index had grown to 30 stocks. The Dow Jones industrial average was initially an index of railroad = stocks. And rightfully so. Back then, railroads served as a backbone of = economic growth. As the economy changed, so did the Dow's makeup. The = latest changes to the Dow came in October 1999, when Microsoft (MSFT), = Intel (INTC), Home Depot (HD) and SBC Communications (SBC) kicked out = Union Carbide, Chevron (CVX), Goodyear Tire (GT) and Sears (S). But the market has changed so much since then. We are in a brand-new = economy where young companies provide new, exciting products and = services, and excel at it. Success in the stock market means actively = searching for these lesser-known yet fast-growing firms and buying = shares early in their upward cycle. Smaller-cap stocks have outperformed their large-cap brethren. Since = Sept. 21, the S&P 600 has gained 22%, the Dow 9%. Many large caps have = dragged their feet for years. IBD strives to present the facts - especially facts about great stocks = and those that have the potential to outpace the market. We feel the S&P = 600 will offer readers a clearer view of this new face of America. The = Nasdaq and S&P 500, meanwhile, will help investors keep a finger on the = pulse of the largest companies. When the S&P 600 chart comes out on Thursday, it will list the index's = 70 biggest stocks along with their IBD Composite Rating. This feature = will help save you time in singling out the best stocks in the market. = The average IBD Composite Rating among the S&P 600 stocks is 59 vs. 54 = for the Dow 30 stocks. While both indexes had the same average Earnings = Per Share Rating of 57, the average RS Rating for the S&P 600 was 55 vs. = the Dow's 43. Meanwhile, the Dow will continue to be featured in IBD every day on page = B4 in the print edition, along with the Dow transport and Dow utility = indexes. - ------=_NextPart_000_0010_01C216F6.5FE675A0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Check it out!!! The highlighting is mine....
 
--Katherine
 

The Big Picture

Wednesday, June 19, 2002

Tech Stocks Take A Break But Cyclicals Edge = Higher

BY DAVID SAITO-CHUNG

INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

Tech stocks decided Tuesday to rest after two straight = days of=20 gains. Cyclicals thought otherwise.

Housing starts surged 11.6% in May, well above the 2.9% rise = economists had=20 expected. Core consumer prices, meanwhile, rose 0.2% the same month, = matching=20 estimates. Translation: good news for industrial stocks.

The Nasdaq started higher, but ran out of fuel by midmorning. It = ended off=20 0.7%. Volume ran just a tad lower, a sign that heavy hitters = weren't eager=20 to sell stocks.

In contrast, the S&P 500 edged up 0.1%, helped by retail, = building,=20 machinery and energy names. The Dow gained 0.2%. The Amex Morgan Stanley = cyclical index marched ahead 0.6%. NYSE trade cooled as well.

Small caps also held ground. The S&P SmallCap 600 index, up 3.2% = in the=20 previous two sessions, lost less than 0.1% Tuesday.

On Thursday, the General = Markets &=20 Sectors page in the print edition will feature for the first time the = S&P=20 600 SmallCap index chart on a daily basis. It will be = sandwiched=20 between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 charts. The Dow will appear at the = bottom of=20 the page on Mondays only. Four more indexes will fill in this slot on a = rotating=20 basis during the rest of the week.

In the 1890s, Charles Henry Dow showed vision in creating an index of = stocks=20 as a barometer of the overall U.S. economy. By 1928, his industrial = index had=20 grown to 30 stocks.

The Dow Jones industrial average was initially an index of railroad = stocks.=20 And rightfully so. Back then, railroads served as a backbone of economic = growth.=20 As the economy changed, so did the Dow's makeup. The latest changes to = the Dow=20 came in October 1999, when Microsoft  (MSFT),=20 Intel (INTC),=20 Home Depot (HD)=20 and SBC Communications (SBC)=20 kicked out Union Carbide, Chevron (CVX),=20 Goodyear Tire (GT)=20 and Sears (S).

But the market has changed so much since then. We are in a brand-new = economy=20 where young companies provide new, exciting products and services, and = excel at=20 it. Success in the stock market means actively searching for these = lesser-known=20 yet fast-growing firms and buying shares early in their upward = cycle.

Smaller-cap stocks have outperformed their large-cap brethren. Since = Sept.=20 21, the S&P 600 has gained 22%, the Dow 9%. Many large caps have = dragged=20 their feet for years.

IBD strives to present the facts =97 especially facts about great = stocks and=20 those that have the potential to outpace the market. We feel the S&P = 600=20 will offer readers a clearer view of this new face of America. The = Nasdaq and=20 S&P 500, meanwhile, will help investors keep a finger on the pulse = of the=20 largest companies.

When the S&P 600 chart comes out on Thursday, it will list the = index's 70=20 biggest stocks along with their IBD Composite Rating. This feature will = help=20 save you time in singling out the best stocks in the market. The average = IBD=20 Composite Rating among the S&P 600 stocks is 59 vs. 54 for the Dow = 30=20 stocks. While both indexes had the same average Earnings Per Share = Rating of 57,=20 the average RS Rating for the S&P 600 was 55 vs. the Dow's 43.

Meanwhile, the Dow will continue to be featured in IBD every day on = page B4=20 in the print edition, along with the Dow transport and Dow utility=20 indexes.

- ------=_NextPart_000_0010_01C216F6.5FE675A0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2504 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.