From what I see, today’s price action looks like the turn low = I have been expecting. A close tomorrow above today’s high is the signal I u= sually look for to confirm a turn.

<= /span>

However, trading from this turn would be very risky. The sheer stren= gth of this down move puts this turn in jeopardy, while from my technical perspect= ive this low turn is set up very well, the overwhelming negative sentiment that= is currently in the market could easily negate this set-up.<= /font>

<= /span>

Even if today proves out to be the low of the move, the upside appea= rs to be very limited.

<= /span>

-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Monday, June 24, 2002 = 9:34 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.= com'
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] S&= ;P index "M"

<= /o:p>

Today's price action meets all my technical criteria for the termination of the current down mov= e. However, I believe we have a little further to go before the projected turn= low has been made.

While today's low h= as occurred within the turn low time window, if today is indeed the low it wou= ld mean that the turn came early in the window. Often sharp moves in the direc= tion of the dominate trend tend to terminate in the last half of the turn window, and occasionally beyond the projected turn window. For this reason I am not convinced that today was the end to the current short term move down. Even = if today does prove out to be the projected turn low the market is still likel= y to move back down toward the end of the current time window.=

At this point any a= ttempt to trade long would be too risky. I will wait out the remainder of this time window before declaring a turn or projecting a new target for the next turn high. Unless of course the market demands that I comment sooner.=

-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Saturday, June 15, 200= 2 6:01 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.= com'
Subject: RE:[CANSLIM] S&P index "M"

= ;

= The next significant low turn for the S&P should occur within four trading days = of 6-26 with the turn most likely happening during the last half of the window from 6-26 to 7-2. The target price range is 965 - 958. If the turn comes ea= rly in the window it is more likely to be in the high part of the range and if = the turn comes late in the window it is more likely to be in the low part of the range.

= E

-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2002= 10:10 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.= com'
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] S&= ;P index "M"

= ;

= Today's market action all but confirms that Friday was no aberration, but was indeed a war= ning signal. I believe the high turn that I forecast for the time window of 6-10= to 6-20 was made today and well short of the low target of 1048.41. Even if the market should manage to make it up to 1048 over the course of the next few = days the risk is far greater than the potential reward.=

= The primary reason that I think this short term high turn has been made is beca= use the S&P has closed significantly below the target range of 1034-1027 th= at I had forecast for the low turn that I had anticipated in my post from 5-21. = Also in that post I had mentioned that there were two time windows that the low = turn I was looking for could be made. What has happened almost always occurs when the market is in the midst of a strong trend. In this case a down trend. The first and most likely time window for the turn occurs, but the next high tu= rn is made early in the window is often only one or two days up and is very we= ak with the market turning below target levels. When this happens the second t= ime window for the turn should be expected and the move is exaggerated. This means that the low turn I had originally forecast to occur within four trading days of= 6-4 has blown past its target and should now occur within four trading days of 6-26. I haven't had time yet to calculate the likely targets for this turn, but I suspect that = this down swing could challenge last Septembers lows before a meaningful move up= can be made.

= I wanted to get this post out tonight to warn those of you who give weight to my analysis. If any of you are holding on to positions expecting the S&P to reach 1048 per my analysis, the market has spoken, it ain't likely to happe= n.

= E

-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Sunday, June 09, 2002 = 4:06 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.= com'
Subject: [CANSLIM] S&P i= ndex "M"

= ;

On Tu= esday the S&P index hit a low of 1030.49 right in the middle of the highest probability target range and on the highest probability target day. The next day it closed above the high of the previous day, signaling that a turn had been made. Then the very next day Thursday the market dropped again hitting= an intra-day low of 1026.91 right at the bottom of my projected target range. = All was still well and within parameters. I fully expected Friday to close above the high for Thursday and again signal that a turn had been made. But alas,= all was not well Friday!

= ;

First= the optimistic view. Sometimes these target levels can hold true based on closi= ng prices. This usually occurs when a market aberration causes the target to be overrun, yet prices will still close at or near the target levels. This cou= ld have happened Friday with the market closing at 1027.53. If Friday was an aberration then the intra-day low of 1012.45 will hold through the next low turn.

= ;

Now f= or the much grimmer forecast. If Friday was not an aberration then it is very poss= ible that the next turn low could break the 1012.45 level and possibly challenge last September's lows.

= ;

At th= is point the picture is very muddy we will just have to sit back and let the market = tell us where it is going to go.

= ;

Assum= ing that Friday was indeed the low point of the current down move (hopefully Monday = will give us a confirmation signal), then we can anticipate the next turn high to occur within four trading days of 6-14. The most likely targets for this tu= rn would be a .382 retracement of the last move down which began on 5-17 at 1106.59 and ended on 6-7 at 1012.45 or a .618 retracement of the same move. This would give us a target prices of 1048.41 for the .382 retracement and 1070.62. for the .618 retracement. Both of these targets carry approximately the same probability rating.

= ;

In ei= ther case the next turn high will likely occur very soon and without much streng= th to the upside. Sorry Duke, it's not what I was hoping for either. For those= of you who are strong optimists there is a low probability target of 1104.60 w= hich if it occurs it would be late in the turn window.

= ;

Of co= urse if the market breaks the 1012.45 level on Monday then this forecast would no longer be valid.

= ;

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