From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2719 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, August 3 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2719 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know Re: [CANSLIM] Market trend Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 3 Aug 2002 10:49:35 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0044_01C23ADB.74D79710 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi John, It seems the whole concept of the "Lazy W" has gotten way beyond my = intent....so let me backtrack.=20 My original post and the comment I was making to begin with was simply = "sometimes even the pros don't know." That is, I thought it amusing that = Tim Truebenbach and the IBD could not identify the pattern and emailed = Tim with the same sentiment. (He also got a kick out of the silly = pattern.) My labeling it a Lazy W was only meant as an observation of = what it looked like to me and a tongue-in-cheek naming of a "pattern" = that wasn't really a pattern. It was never my intention to read anything = into it. Somehow, in discussing the technical aspects of what *was* = going on with SIE, the offhand comment became something it was not. In summary: (1) SIE's base count was reset when the stock dropped well below the = lows of the last base in it's advance in late '98. (2) SIE broke out of a new 1st base in August '01. (3) I have no idea what pattern it formed recently, but it did seem to = defy odds and move out on volume, only to fail later. (4) I never intended to read anything into what was happening with it, = nor to devise a "new" pattern for the history books [though if Lazy W = shows up in Bulkowski's next book, I'm claiming credit! :))]. I'm as = party-line CANSLIM as they come and would be the last one to start = making new rules to follow. (5) Whatever "pattern" SIE was tracing, it failed when it fell back into = its consolidation on Friday. That's shouldn't be at all surprising, = given that so few stocks are setting up and breaking out in conjunction = with the recent FTD. The whole point of Tim's view of SIE in his article = was that the few stocks that are moving right now have distorted = patterns, and that increases the risk. (6) It's never a good idea in my book to jump on the first couple of = stocks that breakout in a fresh advance. I prefer to monitor them and = see how they behave and then look for additional stocks to breakout of = sound basing patterns and move up before I bet the farm. It's a = conservative approach, but one that matches risk/reward in a sensible = manner. (7) Right now, after recently clearing the deck, I've got 1 short and 2 = long probes. That usually happens only when the market is groping for = direction. As it becomes more apparent, I press in the direction of, as = Dave Landry calls it, "the big blue arrow" (metaphor for major market = trend). Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: John Calkins=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, August 03, 2002 9:30 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know Scott, I would have to agree with your failing base on base pattern. Katherine, would it be better to consider staying with the classic = double bottom than trying to interpret a new lazy W pattern? Doesn't = this relate to how WON developed the CWH? Didn't He, Livermore and = others already explore these regions and shouldn't we learn from them, = or do we always question their results. I realize that we need to learn = from each other how to interpret these patterns. It's like trying to = explore too far off the beaten path, like a child getting too close to = the crumbling edge or using a 10% stop rule instead of an 8%. Is a lazy = W too close to the crumbling edge especially in this market? We are = told that these patterns are useful in a bull market. The bear pops up = on Thursday and Friday, then a pattern seems to fail and again reminds = us to get back on the path.. Again and again, the closer I stay to the = classic patterns, the less I am inclined to get into this market. = CANSLIM and WON's Technical's seem to be working for me by keeping me on = the sidelines until this market speaks to me in a clearer voice. John=20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Scott Gettis=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 9:27 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know here's my interpretation. If we have to make up a name for the pattern that sie is forming, = maybe it is not really a sound base. I agree that sie at this moment = seems to be a leader in this market, but the base that it formed is too = deep to be considered a flat base, and it does not have the classic = characteristics of a double bottom. To me it looks most like a base on = base structure; with the first part from 4/30-6/19 - and the second part = the most recent base - which was rather short. Hey the pattern may = work, in which case ill add the lazy w to my list of charts to look for. = But, in this market where breakouts are still not working why try to = force it with a price structure that can be labeled suspect at best. -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 8:13 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know Hi Donald, My comments below were to show how the base count restarts, rather = than looking back as far as 4 years ago at the chart and concluding that = it is a 4 year C&H. That means that the stock broke out of a fresh 1st = base August last year, and that the more recent action, for lack of a = better term "Lazy W" would be considered on its own, rather than as a = part of the 4 year pattern. That makes it a 2nd stage base. More specifically, the recent base doesn't meet the criteria for = either a C&H or the shallower Saucer & Handle because of that odd price = peak in the center of the formation. More than anything, take a look at = the volume pattern as the center of the LazyW forms, it's very high. = Normally in a C&H or S&H, the volume dries up at the bottom of the cup. = This is exactly the opposite, showing that SIE was trying desperately to = breakout, but was knocked back into its consolidation on high volume. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Donald Wallker=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 9:14 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know Katherine =3D =3D I didn't read your note about SIE before = sending you the one about the IBD Article leading me to conclude that = SIE has a Saucer-shaped Chart. And, I'm having dificulty trying to = harmonize the IBD Article and your remarks. If you can give me a little = help here I'd surely appreciate it.=3D=3D=3DDonald=20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 9:36 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know Hi Donald, I think you've actually hit on a key element of chart reading = in CANSLIM. That is, when there is a deep correction that undercuts the = low of the last base, the base count is reset and you essentially "start = fresh" with the chart. It's my understanding that this is why WON looks = at formations as they form over the previous 52 wks. In the case of SIE, = the base count was reset in '99 when the downside move passed below the = last base formed in '98. http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE10yrs080202.jpg=20 By August '01, you would then be looking at SIE to set up a = brand new 1st stage base as it nears its 52 wk high, in this case a = double bottom: http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE080101.jpg Important, as it allows you to take advantage of renewed = growth in an industry and/or company. (Assuming this is not a cyclical = move) Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Donald Wallker=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 3:48 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know Katherine ---Maybe (tongue in cheek) SIEt hasn't broken out = yet and is still working on the cup that it started back in March = 1998.---Donald=20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, August 01, 2002 7:24 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know Hi All, Got a real kick out of this comment from Tim Truebenbach, = a real pro and contributor to TradingMarkets.com: "Sierra Health (SIE) hails from the leading HMO group. The = stock has stellar fundamentals, but to this day, no one I have spoken = with -- from fellow investors to people at IBD -- have been able to = describe what kind of base it has produced. It has broken out of this = "unknown" base and continues to push higher for the time being." I've dubbed this a "Lazy W"... See it at http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/LazyW.jpg=20 Katherine - ------=_NextPart_000_0044_01C23ADB.74D79710 Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi John,
 
It seems the whole concept of the "Lazy W" has gotten way beyond my = intent....so let me backtrack.
 
My original post and the comment I was making to begin with was = simply=20 "sometimes even the pros don't know." That is, I thought it amusing that = Tim=20 Truebenbach and the IBD could not identify the pattern and emailed Tim = with the=20 same sentiment. (He also got a kick out of the silly pattern.) My = labeling=20 it a Lazy W was only meant as an observation of what it looked like to = me and a=20 tongue-in-cheek naming of a "pattern" that wasn't really a pattern. It = was never=20 my intention to read anything into it. Somehow, in discussing the = technical=20 aspects of what *was* going on with SIE, the offhand comment became = something it=20 was not.
 
In summary:
 
(1) SIE's base count was reset when the stock dropped well below = the lows=20 of the last base in it's advance in late '98.
(2) SIE broke out of a new 1st base in August '01.
(3) I have no idea what pattern it formed recently, but it did seem = to defy=20 odds and move out on volume, only to fail later.
(4) I never intended to read anything into what was happening with = it, nor=20 to devise a "new" pattern for the history books [though if Lazy W shows = up in=20 Bulkowski's next book, I'm claiming credit! :))]. I'm as party-line = CANSLIM as=20 they come and would be the last one to start making new rules to = follow.
(5) Whatever "pattern" SIE was tracing, it failed when it fell back = into=20 its consolidation on Friday. That's shouldn't be at all surprising, = given that=20 so few stocks are setting up and breaking out in conjunction with the = recent=20 FTD. The whole point of Tim's view of SIE in his article was that the = few stocks=20 that are moving right now have distorted patterns, and that increases = the=20 risk.
(6) It's never a good idea in my book to jump on the first couple = of stocks=20 that breakout in a fresh advance. I prefer to monitor them and see how = they=20 behave and then look for additional stocks to breakout of sound basing = patterns=20 and move up before I bet the farm. It's a conservative approach, but one = that=20 matches risk/reward in a sensible manner.
(7) Right now, after recently clearing the deck, I've got 1 short = and 2=20 long probes. That usually happens only when the market is groping for = direction.=20 As it becomes more apparent, I press in the direction of, as Dave Landry = calls=20 it, "the big blue arrow" (metaphor for major market trend).
 
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 John=20 Calkins
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Saturday, August 03, 2002 = 9:30=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = Sometimes even the=20 Pros don't know

Scott,
 
I would have to agree with your = failing base on=20 base pattern.
 
Katherine, would it be better to = consider staying=20 with the classic double bottom than trying to interpret a new lazy W=20 pattern?  Doesn't this relate to how WON developed the CWH?  = Didn't=20 He, Livermore and others already explore these regions and shouldn't = we learn=20 from them, or do we always question their results.  I realize = that we=20 need to learn from each other how to interpret these patterns.  = It's like=20 trying to explore too far off the beaten path,  like a child = getting too=20 close to the crumbling edge or using a 10% stop rule instead of an = 8%. =20 Is a lazy W too close to the crumbling edge especially in this=20 market?  We are told that these patterns are useful in a bull=20 market.  The bear pops up on Thursday and Friday, then a = pattern=20 seems to fail and again reminds us to get back on the path..  = Again and=20 again, the closer I stay to the classic patterns, the less I am = inclined to=20 get into this market.  CANSLIM and WON's Technical's seem to = be working for me by keeping me on the sidelines until this = market speaks=20 to me in a clearer voice.
 
John
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Scott = Gettis=20
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 = 9:27=20 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] = Sometimes even=20 the Pros don't know

here's my interpretation.
 
If=20 we have to make up a name for the pattern that sie is forming, maybe = it is=20 not really a sound base.  I agree that sie at this moment seems = to be a=20 leader in this market, but the base that it formed is too = deep to=20 be considered a flat base, and it does not have the classic = characteristics=20 of a double bottom.  To me it looks most like a base on base = structure;=20 with the first part from 4/30-6/19 - and the second part the most = recent=20 base - which was rather short.  Hey the pattern may work, in = which case=20 ill add the lazy w to my list of charts to look for.  But, in = this=20 market where breakouts are still not working why try to force = it with a=20 price structure that can be labeled suspect at = best.
-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of = Katherine=20 Malm
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 8:13 AM
To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = Sometimes even=20 the Pros don't know

Hi Donald,
 
My comments below were to show how the base count restarts, = rather=20 than looking back as far as 4 years ago at the chart and = concluding that=20 it is a 4 year C&H. That means that the stock broke out of a = fresh 1st=20 base August last year, and that the more recent action, = for lack=20 of a better term "Lazy W" would be considered on its own, rather = than as a=20 part of the 4 year pattern. That makes it a 2nd stage base.
 
More specifically, the recent base doesn't meet the criteria = for=20 either a C&H or the shallower Saucer & Handle because of = that odd=20 price peak in the center of the formation. More than anything, = take a look=20 at the volume pattern as the center of the LazyW forms, it's very = high.=20 Normally in a C&H or S&H, the volume dries up at the = bottom of the=20 cup. This is exactly the opposite, showing that SIE was trying = desperately=20 to breakout, but was knocked back into its consolidation on high=20 volume.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Donald=20 Wallker
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Friday, August 02, = 2002 9:14=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = Sometimes=20 even the Pros don't know

Katherine =3D =3D  I = didn't read your note=20 about SIE before sending you the one about the IBD Article = leading me to=20 conclude that SIE has a  Saucer-shaped Chart.  And, = I'm =20 having dificulty trying to harmonize the IBD Article and your=20 remarks.  If you can give me a little help here I'd surely=20 appreciate it.=3D=3D=3DDonald
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Friday, August = 02, 2002=20 9:36 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = Sometimes=20 even the Pros don't know

Hi Donald,
 
I think you've actually hit on a key element of chart = reading in=20 CANSLIM. That is, when there is a deep correction that = undercuts the=20 low of the last base, the base count is reset and you = essentially=20 "start fresh" with the chart. It's my understanding that this = is why=20 WON looks at formations as they form over the previous 52 wks. = In the=20 case of SIE, the base count was reset in '99 when the downside = move=20 passed below the last base formed in '98.
 
http://Wall= Street-LLC.com/canslim/SIE10yrs080202.jpg=20
 
By August '01, you would then be looking at SIE to set up = a brand=20 new 1st stage base as it nears its 52 wk high, in this case a = double=20 bottom:
 
http://WallStree= t-LLC.com/canslim/SIE080101.jpg
 
Important, as it allows you to take advantage of renewed = growth=20 in an industry and/or company. (Assuming this is not a = cyclical=20 move)
 
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Donald=20 Wallker
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Friday, August = 02, 2002=20 3:48 AM
Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 Sometimes even the Pros don't know

Katherine ---Maybe (tongue = in cheek)=20 SIEt hasn't broken out yet and is still working on the cup = that it=20 started back in March 1998.---Donald
----- Original Message = - -----
From:=20 Katherine Malm =
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Thursday, = August 01,=20 2002 7:24 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] = Sometimes=20 even the Pros don't know

Hi All,
 
Got a real kick out of this comment from Tim = Truebenbach, a=20 real pro and contributor to TradingMarkets.com:
 

"Sierra Health (SIE)=20 hails from the leading HMO group. The stock has stellar=20 fundamentals, but to this day, no one I have spoken with = - -- from=20 fellow investors to people at IBD -- have been able = to=20 describe what kind of base it has produced. It has broken = out of=20 this "unknown" base and continues to push higher for the = time=20 being."

 

I've dubbed this a "Lazy W"...

See it at http://WallStreet-LL= C.com/canslim/LazyW.jpg=20

 

Katherine

=

 

- ------=_NextPart_000_0044_01C23ADB.74D79710-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 3 Aug 2002 12:41:36 -0400 From: "Dan Forant" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market trend One investment style is still doing well...........shorting. DanF - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Gary A. Snyder" To: Sent: Saturday, August 03, 2002 10:19 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Market trend > All: > I look at Market trend at MSN provided by Camelback Research Alliance, Inc. > The trend has been getting progressively worse. On Tuesday July 30 > everything turned to: out of favor- All sectors- All investment styles- > Growth and Value- All size companies, the first time I have seen this > posture. Imagine my surprise when I see today a major change in trend: All > sectors but Public utilities and Tech now neutral, all sizes neutral and > both investment styles neutral. > Also get a market trend prediction from MarketEdge. The bottom line: With > the DJIA staying above its previous intraday low a major change in market > trend is predicted with the rating of Bearish -5 going to a bullish +5. > Question: Have we seen a major trend reversal in the market this week? Can > all the problems with Accounting, Terrorism, Overvaluations, Double dip > recession and the Possibility Consumer spending slowing be ignored by the > market for more than a week or two? Gary > > _________________________________________________________________ > Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 3 Aug 2002 13:08:10 -0400 From: "Donald Wallker" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_000E_01C23AEE.D14654B0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable There isn't much doubt that sometimes the Pro's don't know. In the IBD = of Friday, Aug.2, on page B8 in Col.1, there is a Article that hypes = the Shares of University of Phoenix Online (UOPX). "It found support at = its 200-day line this week. Look for it to log some high-volume weeks = at it climbs the right side of its base. The online educator's = fundamental's excel.'" And so on about huge percentage growths in = Profits, sales and ROI. I initially reviewed the IBD Ratings and found = them to be 99, 60I, D, A and B minus and questioned the Article's = generalized sttement that the "fundamentals excel." Then, upon reviewing = the IBD Chart I realized that the Article was probably written on = Thursday, before the close of the market, for publication on Friday. it = being noted that the stock fell $0.38 below its 200 day line that day. = Then, on Friday, the day of publication, the stock fell an additional = $1.28. for a total of $1.66 or substantially %6.3 from the close shown = in the NASDAQ Chart accompaning the Article. So, it looks like this = stock is in for either a "W" or "Lazy W " shaped base after all. In = any event it surely doesn't look like its finished with it's base. = Would sombody else please comment about the base (if any ) formed by = UOPX.---- Donald =20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: John Calkins=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, August 03, 2002 10:30 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know Scott, I would have to agree with your failing base on base pattern. Katherine, would it be better to consider staying with the classic = double bottom than trying to interpret a new lazy W pattern? Doesn't = this relate to how WON developed the CWH? Didn't He, Livermore and = others already explore these regions and shouldn't we learn from them, = or do we always question their results. I realize that we need to learn = from each other how to interpret these patterns. It's like trying to = explore too far off the beaten path, like a child getting too close to = the crumbling edge or using a 10% stop rule instead of an 8%. Is a lazy = W too close to the crumbling edge especially in this market? We are = told that these patterns are useful in a bull market. The bear pops up = on Thursday and Friday, then a pattern seems to fail and again reminds = us to get back on the path.. Again and again, the closer I stay to the = classic patterns, the less I am inclined to get into this market. = CANSLIM and WON's Technical's seem to be working for me by keeping me on = the sidelines until this market speaks to me in a clearer voice. John=20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Scott Gettis=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 9:27 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know here's my interpretation. If we have to make up a name for the pattern that sie is forming, = maybe it is not really a sound base. I agree that sie at this moment = seems to be a leader in this market, but the base that it formed is too = deep to be considered a flat base, and it does not have the classic = characteristics of a double bottom. To me it looks most like a base on = base structure; with the first part from 4/30-6/19 - and the second part = the most recent base - which was rather short. Hey the pattern may = work, in which case ill add the lazy w to my list of charts to look for. = But, in this market where breakouts are still not working why try to = force it with a price structure that can be labeled suspect at best. -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 8:13 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know Hi Donald, My comments below were to show how the base count restarts, rather = than looking back as far as 4 years ago at the chart and concluding that = it is a 4 year C&H. That means that the stock broke out of a fresh 1st = base August last year, and that the more recent action, for lack of a = better term "Lazy W" would be considered on its own, rather than as a = part of the 4 year pattern. That makes it a 2nd stage base. More specifically, the recent base doesn't meet the criteria for = either a C&H or the shallower Saucer & Handle because of that odd price = peak in the center of the formation. More than anything, take a look at = the volume pattern as the center of the LazyW forms, it's very high. = Normally in a C&H or S&H, the volume dries up at the bottom of the cup. = This is exactly the opposite, showing that SIE was trying desperately to = breakout, but was knocked back into its consolidation on high volume. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Donald Wallker=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 9:14 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know Katherine =3D =3D I didn't read your note about SIE before = sending you the one about the IBD Article leading me to conclude that = SIE has a Saucer-shaped Chart. And, I'm having dificulty trying to = harmonize the IBD Article and your remarks. If you can give me a little = help here I'd surely appreciate it.=3D=3D=3DDonald=20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 9:36 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know Hi Donald, I think you've actually hit on a key element of chart reading = in CANSLIM. That is, when there is a deep correction that undercuts the = low of the last base, the base count is reset and you essentially "start = fresh" with the chart. It's my understanding that this is why WON looks = at formations as they form over the previous 52 wks. In the case of SIE, = the base count was reset in '99 when the downside move passed below the = last base formed in '98. http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE10yrs080202.jpg=20 By August '01, you would then be looking at SIE to set up a = brand new 1st stage base as it nears its 52 wk high, in this case a = double bottom: http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE080101.jpg Important, as it allows you to take advantage of renewed = growth in an industry and/or company. (Assuming this is not a cyclical = move) Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Donald Wallker=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 3:48 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know Katherine ---Maybe (tongue in cheek) SIEt hasn't broken out = yet and is still working on the cup that it started back in March = 1998.---Donald=20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, August 01, 2002 7:24 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know Hi All, Got a real kick out of this comment from Tim Truebenbach, = a real pro and contributor to TradingMarkets.com: "Sierra Health (SIE) hails from the leading HMO group. The = stock has stellar fundamentals, but to this day, no one I have spoken = with -- from fellow investors to people at IBD -- have been able to = describe what kind of base it has produced. It has broken out of this = "unknown" base and continues to push higher for the time being." I've dubbed this a "Lazy W"... See it at http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/LazyW.jpg=20 Katherine - ------=_NextPart_000_000E_01C23AEE.D14654B0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
There isn't much doubt that sometimes = the Pro's=20 don't know.  In the IBD of Friday, Aug.2, on page B8 in = Col.1,  there=20 is a Article that hypes the Shares of University of Phoenix Online = (UOPX). "It=20 found support at its 200-day line this week.  Look for it to log = some=20 high-volume weeks at it climbs the right side of its base.  The = online=20 educator's fundamental's excel.'" And so on about huge percentage = growths=20 in Profits, sales and ROI.  I initially reviewed the IBD=20 Ratings and found them to be 99, 60I, D, A and B minus = and questioned=20 the Article's  generalized sttement that the "fundamentals excel." = Then,=20 upon reviewing the IBD Chart I realized that the Article was = probably=20 written on Thursday, before the close of the market, for  = publication on=20 Friday. it being  noted that the stock fell $0.38 below its 200 day = line=20 that day.  Then, on Friday, the day of publication, the stock fell = an=20 additional $1.28. for a total of $1.66 or substantially %6.3 from the = close=20 shown in the NASDAQ Chart accompaning the Article. So, it looks like = this stock=20 is in for either a "W"  or "Lazy W " shaped base after all.  = In any=20 event it surely doesn't look like its finished with it's base.  = Would=20 sombody else please comment about the base (if any ) formed=20 by UOPX.----  Donald  
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 John=20 Calkins
Sent: Saturday, August 03, 2002 = 10:30=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = Sometimes even the=20 Pros don't know

Scott,
 
I would have to agree with your = failing base on=20 base pattern.
 
Katherine, would it be better to = consider staying=20 with the classic double bottom than trying to interpret a new lazy W=20 pattern?  Doesn't this relate to how WON developed the CWH?  = Didn't=20 He, Livermore and others already explore these regions and shouldn't = we learn=20 from them, or do we always question their results.  I realize = that we=20 need to learn from each other how to interpret these patterns.  = It's like=20 trying to explore too far off the beaten path,  like a child = getting too=20 close to the crumbling edge or using a 10% stop rule instead of an = 8%. =20 Is a lazy W too close to the crumbling edge especially in this=20 market?  We are told that these patterns are useful in a bull=20 market.  The bear pops up on Thursday and Friday, then a = pattern=20 seems to fail and again reminds us to get back on the path..  = Again and=20 again, the closer I stay to the classic patterns, the less I am = inclined to=20 get into this market.  CANSLIM and WON's Technical's seem to = be working for me by keeping me on the sidelines until this = market speaks=20 to me in a clearer voice.
 
John
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Scott = Gettis=20
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 = 9:27=20 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] = Sometimes even=20 the Pros don't know

here's my interpretation.
 
If=20 we have to make up a name for the pattern that sie is forming, maybe = it is=20 not really a sound base.  I agree that sie at this moment seems = to be a=20 leader in this market, but the base that it formed is too = deep to=20 be considered a flat base, and it does not have the classic = characteristics=20 of a double bottom.  To me it looks most like a base on base = structure;=20 with the first part from 4/30-6/19 - and the second part the most = recent=20 base - which was rather short.  Hey the pattern may work, in = which case=20 ill add the lazy w to my list of charts to look for.  But, in = this=20 market where breakouts are still not working why try to force = it with a=20 price structure that can be labeled suspect at = best.
-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of = Katherine=20 Malm
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 8:13 AM
To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = Sometimes even=20 the Pros don't know

Hi Donald,
 
My comments below were to show how the base count restarts, = rather=20 than looking back as far as 4 years ago at the chart and = concluding that=20 it is a 4 year C&H. That means that the stock broke out of a = fresh 1st=20 base August last year, and that the more recent action, = for lack=20 of a better term "Lazy W" would be considered on its own, rather = than as a=20 part of the 4 year pattern. That makes it a 2nd stage base.
 
More specifically, the recent base doesn't meet the criteria = for=20 either a C&H or the shallower Saucer & Handle because of = that odd=20 price peak in the center of the formation. More than anything, = take a look=20 at the volume pattern as the center of the LazyW forms, it's very = high.=20 Normally in a C&H or S&H, the volume dries up at the = bottom of the=20 cup. This is exactly the opposite, showing that SIE was trying = desperately=20 to breakout, but was knocked back into its consolidation on high=20 volume.
 
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Donald=20 Wallker
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Friday, August 02, = 2002 9:14=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = Sometimes=20 even the Pros don't know

Katherine =3D =3D  I = didn't read your note=20 about SIE before sending you the one about the IBD Article = leading me to=20 conclude that SIE has a  Saucer-shaped Chart.  And, = I'm =20 having dificulty trying to harmonize the IBD Article and your=20 remarks.  If you can give me a little help here I'd surely=20 appreciate it.=3D=3D=3DDonald
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Friday, August = 02, 2002=20 9:36 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = Sometimes=20 even the Pros don't know

Hi Donald,
 
I think you've actually hit on a key element of chart = reading in=20 CANSLIM. That is, when there is a deep correction that = undercuts the=20 low of the last base, the base count is reset and you = essentially=20 "start fresh" with the chart. It's my understanding that this = is why=20 WON looks at formations as they form over the previous 52 wks. = In the=20 case of SIE, the base count was reset in '99 when the downside = move=20 passed below the last base formed in '98.
 
http://Wall= Street-LLC.com/canslim/SIE10yrs080202.jpg=20
 
By August '01, you would then be looking at SIE to set up = a brand=20 new 1st stage base as it nears its 52 wk high, in this case a = double=20 bottom:
 
http://WallStree= t-LLC.com/canslim/SIE080101.jpg
 
Important, as it allows you to take advantage of renewed = growth=20 in an industry and/or company. (Assuming this is not a = cyclical=20 move)
 
Katherine
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Donald=20 Wallker
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Friday, August = 02, 2002=20 3:48 AM
Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 Sometimes even the Pros don't know

Katherine ---Maybe (tongue = in cheek)=20 SIEt hasn't broken out yet and is still working on the cup = that it=20 started back in March 1998.---Donald
----- Original Message = - -----
From:=20 Katherine Malm =
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Thursday, = August 01,=20 2002 7:24 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] = Sometimes=20 even the Pros don't know

Hi All,
 
Got a real kick out of this comment from Tim = Truebenbach, a=20 real pro and contributor to TradingMarkets.com:
 

"Sierra Health (SIE)=20 hails from the leading HMO group. The stock has stellar=20 fundamentals, but to this day, no one I have spoken with = - -- from=20 fellow investors to people at IBD -- have been able = to=20 describe what kind of base it has produced. It has broken = out of=20 this "unknown" base and continues to push higher for the = time=20 being."

 

I've dubbed this a "Lazy W"...

See it at http://WallStreet-LL= C.com/canslim/LazyW.jpg=20

 

Katherine

=

 

- ------=_NextPart_000_000E_01C23AEE.D14654B0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2719 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.