From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2820 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Sunday, August 18 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2820 In this issue: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview Re: [CANSLIM] Recent activity Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI Re: [CANSLIM] CEO / CFO certifications Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI Re: [CANSLIM] CEO / CFO certifications Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 17 Aug 2002 15:21:06 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0213_01C24601.B53F2080 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0214_01C24601.B53F2080" - ------=_NextPart_001_0214_01C24601.B53F2080 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS Business inventories rose 0.2% in June,for the second straight month, = significant not only for being the second month since Jan 2001 that = inventories rose, but unlike May doing so on a 0.3% rise in sales (in = May sales declined 0.3%). Expectations were for a rise of 0.1% in = inventories. This suggests that business is now intentionally increasing = inventories in a show of confidence for the future. Business investment rose 0.3% in the second quarter according to the = preliminary GDP report, first increase since Q3 of 2000. Industrial production rose 0.2% while capacity utilization remained = unchanged in July, both slightly ahead of expectations. FOMC left rates unchanged, while changing the bias to a possible future = easing. Media did a good job hyping a rate cut, can only wonder (until = we get the minutes) if this had any influence on the Feds. Meanwhile, = the media's favorite new story is to increase the fear of a double dip = back into recession. Univ. of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey dipped in mid August to = 87.9 from 88.1, expected by economists was a rise to 89 (can I have some = of whatever they were smoking??). Meanwhile same survey showed the = current conditions index rose to 100.2 from 99.3 while expectations = index dropped to 80 from 81. When will the media hold pain adverse Japan (the second largest economy = in the world) accountable for failing to take any meaningful steps to = enact changes to its corrupted banking system and closed economy, and = stop allowing it to instead hang on the back of the US and European = economies to drag it out of recession? Global economies are fragile, = they do not need or deserve the added weight of Japan. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular assessment of the health of CANSLIM's "M" and, = as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast for this = year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no other due = diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM patterns = I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases (shown as = Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR (Lower Left = Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM pattern. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend expanded over 50% = this past week, certainly an encouraging sign that an increased number = of stocks were approaching or at new highs with both RS and EPS also 80 = or better. AF - possible handling forming, not confirmed yet by volume ANDE - B3+ APOL - nice b/o Thursday from a double bottom BLUD - rough LLUR BRKL - high handle forming on declining volume, capitulation day near = bottom of the c&h CSG - severe double bottom, volume light on right side, approaching = pivot CSTR - nice b/o Thursday from a 2 week handle DCOM - still trying to break out of the triple bottom pattern DOCC - owned & in my VR Fund, nice recovery from Wed's profit taking, = not an entry now, but worth holding (my target now 16-17) DORL - high handle FCBP - c&h FCN - B3 FNBP - B7 HBHC - LLUR? INVN - early stage LLUR below the high NWRE - B3, in my VR Fund PORT - LLUR into a B3, volume declining, could go either way QCBC - B3 QSII - B4 SBMC - double bottom, volume declining, 2% over pivot SFNT - unusual c&h SSNC - rough B6, in my VR Fund TRBS - fairly classic double bottom, handle forming TRYF - B5 WFMI - double bottom, sustained the b/o from pivot on center point, now = at left rim of "W", both below recent high Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0214_01C24601.B53F2080 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
ECONOMICS
Business inventories rose 0.2% in June,for the = second=20 straight month, significant not only for being the second month since = Jan 2001=20 that inventories rose, but unlike May doing so on a 0.3% rise in sales = (in May=20 sales declined 0.3%). Expectations were for a rise of 0.1% in = inventories. This=20 suggests that business is now intentionally increasing inventories in a = show of=20 confidence for the future.
 
Business investment rose 0.3% in the second = quarter=20 according to the preliminary GDP report, first increase since Q3 of=20 2000.
 
Industrial production rose 0.2% while capacity = utilization=20 remained unchanged in July, both slightly ahead of = expectations.
 
FOMC left rates unchanged, while changing the = bias to a=20 possible future easing. Media did a good job hyping a rate cut, can only = wonder=20 (until we get the minutes) if this had any influence on the Feds. = Meanwhile, the=20 media's favorite new story is to increase the fear of a double dip back = into=20 recession.
 
Univ. of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey = dipped in=20 mid August to 87.9 from 88.1, expected by economists was a rise to 89 = (can I=20 have some of whatever they were smoking??). Meanwhile same survey showed = the=20 current conditions index rose to 100.2 from 99.3 while expectations = index=20 dropped to 80 from 81.
 
When will the media hold pain adverse Japan (the = second=20 largest economy in the world) accountable for failing to take any = meaningful=20 steps to enact changes to its corrupted banking system and closed = economy, and=20 stop allowing it to instead hang on the back of the US and European=20 economies to drag it out of recession? Global economies are = fragile, they=20 do not need or deserve the added weight of Japan.
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20
This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular assessment of the health of = CANSLIM's "M"=20 and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with=20 constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.
 
I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I no longer will actively = consider earnings=20 forecast for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. = I do no=20 other due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any = CANSLIM=20 patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat = bases=20 (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower=20 Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern.
 
The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend=20 expanded over 50% this past week, certainly an encouraging sign that an=20 increased number of stocks were approaching or at new highs with both RS = and EPS=20 also 80 or better.
 
AF - possible handling forming, not confirmed = yet by=20 volume
ANDE - B3+
APOL - nice b/o Thursday from a double = bottom
BLUD - rough LLUR
BRKL - high handle forming on declining volume,=20 capitulation day near bottom of the c&h
CSG - severe double bottom, volume light on = right side,=20 approaching pivot
CSTR - nice b/o Thursday from a 2 week = handle
DCOM - still trying to break out of the triple = bottom=20 pattern
DOCC - owned & in my VR Fund, nice recovery = from Wed's=20 profit taking, not an entry now, but worth holding (my target now=20 16-17)
DORL - high handle
FCBP - c&h
FCN - B3
FNBP - B7
HBHC - LLUR?
INVN - early stage LLUR below the = high
NWRE - B3, in my VR Fund
PORT - LLUR into a B3, volume declining, could = go either=20 way
QCBC - B3
QSII - B4
SBMC - double bottom, volume declining, 2% over=20 pivot
SFNT - unusual c&h
SSNC - rough B6, in my VR Fund
TRBS - fairly classic double bottom, handle=20 forming
TRYF - B5
WFMI - double bottom, sustained the b/o from = pivot on=20 center point, now at left rim of "W", both below recent = high
 
Happy Hunting,
3D""
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: = TexWorley
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Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 17 Aug 2002 17:52:00 -0600 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Recent activity Nice summary. Only an additional thought or two. Number 6 is probably not a large positive. Only medical is the sort of industry that can really be considered a market leader. The others aren't really significant industries. Retail can be something of a leader I suppose (I'm not clear on this, someone can correct me if I'm wrong, HD and WMT come to mind), but I don't see those stocks as real leaders. Your negative arguments I find more compelling, or at least am inclined to give more weight to than the positives. I have one more negative. I don't see any industry producing the 40 to 100% gains in revenues in earnings that can give you the really big winning stocks. I keep thinking back to the nineties when we had several industries producing huge growth rates for years, and that is gone and nothing has taken its place. I guess we can have some nice moves in the market without that, but also probably won't get any huge moves until some industry's step up. On 16 Aug 2002 at 11:39, Eric Jaenike wrote: > 6. Some potential leadership forming, including gaming (BYD ISLE), > medical (LNCR AMSG HSIC), education (APOL CECO COCO), HMOs (CVH SIE > MME), regional banks (if you're willing to include that group as > leadership), retail (JASA PETM MIK KSS). - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 18 Aug 2002 01:14:54 -0500 From: Hermann Ertl Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI > From: "Tom Worley" > Date: Sat, 17 Aug 2002 10:00:20 -0400 > > Jack, a good example of how you have to be careful with "calculated" long > term statistics. In this case, ANSI earned (by DGO's adjusted calculations) > a total of 75 cents in 1999, then dropped to 9 cents in 2000 and 21 cents in > 2001. So 2001 looks good by comparison, but lousy on a 3 year basis. On the > other hand, the forecasts of 51 cents this year and 77 cents next year > continue the short term trend higher at a rate that well exceeds market > norms. > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Jack Tencza" > Sent: Saturday, August 17, 2002 9:34 AM > > > IBD vital statistics shows ANSI's 3 yr. EPS at -27%. > Am I correct in assuming this is a straight line > calculation? If it was $1.00 3 yrs. ago, today it's > .73? Tom, your data do not explain, "3 yr. EPS at -27%." In order to calculate a three year trend (Jack says, "3 yrs. ago") one needs data for four years - you supplied only data for three years. If you supply data for four years we may can figure out the answer to Jack's question how the three year trend is calculated, or do you know? Maybe the problem lies somewhere else. Maybe quarterly results were used. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 18 Aug 2002 01:14:50 -0500 From: Hermann Ertl Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CEO / CFO certifications > From: "Tom Worley" > Date: Fri, 16 Aug 2002 22:38:57 -0400 > > "M" > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Hermann Ertl" > To: > Sent: Friday, August 16, 2002 3:46 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CEO / CFO certifications > > > What is their relation to CANSLIM? > > > > > > From: "Tom Worley" > > Date: Thu, 15 Aug 2002 19:36:23 -0400 > > > > as per the SEC website, updated as of 7:10 PM tonight, following companies > > expected to report by yesterday still had not filed. No indication is > shown > > of those that filed for the five day extension. Tom, don't switch from one extreme to the other one. When replying, you have the habit of not trimming quotes of unneeded, irrelevant text. But in this message you cut out the names of the companies - interesting because they are relevant information (if your claim is true). I wonder why you did this. Your response doesn't make sense. In what way did the companies' failure of timely filing affect the market (M stands for market, right?)? Would you please show their percentage price changes. Did they affect the market positively or negatively? Was the effect what you had expected? Also, Tom, you are a very talented, wordy writer. From you one would have expected a little more than a one letter response. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 18 Aug 2002 07:40:58 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI Sorry, Hermann, I could have explained better. In 1998, ANSI earned 30 cents. So from 1998 thru last year, earnings declined from 30 cents to 21 cents. That's a 30% decline. Annualized would be less, so I can't explain the -27%. You should note that IBD uses a 3 year cycle, while DGO (where the growth rate shows as +4%) uses 5 years. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Hermann Ertl" To: Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 2:14 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI > From: "Tom Worley" > Date: Sat, 17 Aug 2002 10:00:20 -0400 > > Jack, a good example of how you have to be careful with "calculated" long > term statistics. In this case, ANSI earned (by DGO's adjusted calculations) > a total of 75 cents in 1999, then dropped to 9 cents in 2000 and 21 cents in > 2001. So 2001 looks good by comparison, but lousy on a 3 year basis. On the > other hand, the forecasts of 51 cents this year and 77 cents next year > continue the short term trend higher at a rate that well exceeds market > norms. > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Jack Tencza" > Sent: Saturday, August 17, 2002 9:34 AM > > > IBD vital statistics shows ANSI's 3 yr. EPS at -27%. > Am I correct in assuming this is a straight line > calculation? If it was $1.00 3 yrs. ago, today it's > .73? Tom, your data do not explain, "3 yr. EPS at -27%." In order to calculate a three year trend (Jack says, "3 yrs. ago") one needs data for four years - you supplied only data for three years. If you supply data for four years we may can figure out the answer to Jack's question how the three year trend is calculated, or do you know? Maybe the problem lies somewhere else. Maybe quarterly results were used. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 18 Aug 2002 07:42:54 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CEO / CFO certifications Hermann, corporate governance has been a significant and very negative influence on the "M" in CANSLIM for many months. If the certification finally eases investor fears, then it is possible for "M" to improve. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Hermann Ertl" To: Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 2:14 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CEO / CFO certifications > From: "Tom Worley" > Date: Fri, 16 Aug 2002 22:38:57 -0400 > > "M" > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Hermann Ertl" > To: > Sent: Friday, August 16, 2002 3:46 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CEO / CFO certifications > > > What is their relation to CANSLIM? > > > > > > From: "Tom Worley" > > Date: Thu, 15 Aug 2002 19:36:23 -0400 > > > > as per the SEC website, updated as of 7:10 PM tonight, following companies > > expected to report by yesterday still had not filed. No indication is > shown > > of those that filed for the five day extension. Tom, don't switch from one extreme to the other one. When replying, you have the habit of not trimming quotes of unneeded, irrelevant text. But in this message you cut out the names of the companies - interesting because they are relevant information (if your claim is true). I wonder why you did this. Your response doesn't make sense. In what way did the companies' failure of timely filing affect the market (M stands for market, right?)? Would you please show their percentage price changes. Did they affect the market positively or negatively? Was the effect what you had expected? Also, Tom, you are a very talented, wordy writer. From you one would have expected a little more than a one letter response. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 18 Aug 2002 06:57:21 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00B5_01C24684.7FBEBFF0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hermann & Tom,=20 No mystery, just need to know the definition, this one from the = DailyGraph help files (highlighting is mine). The regression approach is = the reason why a back of the envelope check doesn't always appear to = match their numbers. =20 Earnings Growth Rate % This item is calculated by using a least squares regression fit over a = 3-to-5 year period of earnings per share based on a trailing = four-quarter count. For example, if a stock is currently in its second = quarter, the first period used in this calculation will consist of the = sum of Q2 + Q1 (of the current fiscal year) plus Q4 +Q3 (of the prior = fiscal year). Each successive period will be based on the next trailing = four quarters of earnings per share.=20 The amount of time used to calculate the Growth Rate is based on two = factors;=20 a.. Availability of data=20 b.. Positive earnings=20 If a stock does not have at least three years of positive earnings = (based on the trailing four-quarter method noted above), an "N/A" will = appear.=20 The amount of time used for this calculation will consist of at least = three years but no more than five years of positive earnings per share. = If a four-quarter period sum is negative, that period and additional = earnings further back in time, will not be used in the calculation of = this data item.=20 - --Katherine - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: "Tom Worley" To: Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 6:40 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI | Sorry, Hermann, I could have explained better. In 1998, ANSI earned 30 | cents. So from 1998 thru last year, earnings declined from 30 cents to = 21 | cents. That's a 30% decline. Annualized would be less, so I can't = explain | the -27%. You should note that IBD uses a 3 year cycle, while DGO = (where | the growth rate shows as +4%) uses 5 years. |=20 | ----- Original Message ----- | From: "Hermann Ertl" | To: | Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 2:14 AM | Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI |=20 |=20 | > From: "Tom Worley" | > Date: Sat, 17 Aug 2002 10:00:20 -0400 | > | > Jack, a good example of how you have to be careful with "calculated" = long | > term statistics. In this case, ANSI earned (by DGO's adjusted | calculations) | > a total of 75 cents in 1999, then dropped to 9 cents in 2000 and 21 = cents | in | > 2001. So 2001 looks good by comparison, but lousy on a 3 year basis. = On | the | > other hand, the forecasts of 51 cents this year and 77 cents next = year | > continue the short term trend higher at a rate that well exceeds = market | > norms. | > | > ----- Original Message ----- | > From: "Jack Tencza" | > Sent: Saturday, August 17, 2002 9:34 AM | > | > | > IBD vital statistics shows ANSI's 3 yr. EPS at -27%. | > Am I correct in assuming this is a straight line | > calculation? If it was $1.00 3 yrs. ago, today it's | > .73? |=20 |=20 |=20 | Tom, your data do not explain, "3 yr. EPS at -27%." | In order to calculate a three year trend (Jack says, "3 yrs. ago") | one needs data for four years - you supplied only data for three | years. |=20 | If you supply data for four years we may can figure out the answer | to Jack's question how the three year trend is calculated, or do | you know? |=20 | Maybe the problem lies somewhere else. Maybe quarterly results were | used. |=20 |=20 |=20 |=20 |=20 | - | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. |=20 |=20 |=20 |=20 | - | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_00B5_01C24684.7FBEBFF0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hermann & Tom,
 
No mystery, just need to know the definition, this one from the = DailyGraph=20 help files (highlighting is mine). The regression approach is the reason = why a=20 back of the envelope check doesn't always appear to match their = numbers.
 
Earnings Growth Rate %

This item is calculated by using a least = squares=20 regression fit over a 3-to-5 year period of earnings per share based on = a=20 trailing four-quarter count. For example, if a stock is = currently in=20 its second quarter, the first period used in this calculation will = consist of=20 the sum of Q2 + Q1 (of the current fiscal year) plus Q4 +Q3 (of the = prior fiscal=20 year). Each successive period will be based on the next trailing four = quarters=20 of earnings per share.

The amount of time used to calculate the = Growth=20 Rate is based on two factors;=20

  • Availability of data=20
  • Positive earnings
If a stock does not have at least three years of positive earnings = (based=20 on the trailing four-quarter method noted above), an "N/A" will appear.=20

The amount of time used for this calculation will consist of at = least=20 three years but no more than five years of positive earnings per share. = If a=20 four-quarter period sum is negative, that period and additional earnings = further=20 back in time, will not be used in the calculation of this data item. =

--Katherine
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
=
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 6:40 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI

| Sorry, Hermann, I could have explained better. In 1998, = ANSI=20 earned 30
| cents. So from 1998 thru last year, earnings declined = from 30=20 cents to 21
| cents. That's a 30% decline. Annualized would be less, = so I=20 can't explain
| the -27%.  You should note that IBD uses a 3 = year cycle,=20 while DGO (where
| the growth rate shows as +4%) uses 5 years.
| =
|=20 - ----- Original Message -----
| From: "Hermann Ertl" <hertl@attglobal.net>
| To: = <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
|=20 Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 2:14 AM
| Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = ANSI
|=20
|
| > From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
| = >=20 Date: Sat, 17 Aug 2002 10:00:20 -0400
| >
| > Jack, a good = example=20 of how you have to be careful with "calculated" long
| > term = statistics.=20 In this case, ANSI earned (by DGO's adjusted
| calculations)
| = > a=20 total of 75 cents in 1999, then dropped to 9 cents in 2000 and 21 = cents
|=20 in
| > 2001. So 2001 looks good by comparison, but lousy on a 3 = year=20 basis. On
| the
| > other hand, the forecasts of 51 cents this = year and=20 77 cents next year
| > continue the short term trend higher at a = rate that=20 well exceeds market
| > norms.
| >
| > ----- Original = Message=20 - -----
| > From: "Jack Tencza" <jtenz@yahoo.com>
| > Sent: = Saturday,=20 August 17, 2002 9:34 AM
| >
| >
| > IBD vital = statistics shows=20 ANSI's 3 yr. EPS at -27%.
| > Am I correct in assuming this is a = straight=20 line
| > calculation? If it was $1.00 3 yrs. ago, today it's
| = >=20 .73?
|
|
|
| Tom, your data do not explain, "3 yr. EPS at = - -27%."
| In order to calculate a three year trend (Jack says, "3 yrs. = ago")
| one needs data for four years - you supplied only data for = three
|=20 years.
|
| If you supply data for four years we may can figure = out the=20 answer
| to Jack's question how the three year trend is calculated, = or=20 do
| you know?
|
| Maybe the problem lies somewhere else. = Maybe=20 quarterly results were
| used.
|
|
|
|
|
| = - -
| -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
| = - -In the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
| -"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email.
|
|
|
|
| -
| -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
| = - -In the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
| -"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_00B5_01C24684.7FBEBFF0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 18 Aug 2002 08:01:03 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_008B_01C2468D.65E90BE0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Katherine, What I don't know is if IBD is also using the regression method. The = only thing I ever saw confirmed is that they use only a 3 year period, = while DGO uses up to 5 years when available. - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 7:57 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI Hermann & Tom,=20 No mystery, just need to know the definition, this one from the = DailyGraph help files (highlighting is mine). The regression approach is = the reason why a back of the envelope check doesn't always appear to = match their numbers. Earnings Growth Rate % This item is calculated by using a least squares regression fit over a = 3-to-5 year period of earnings per share based on a trailing = four-quarter count. For example, if a stock is currently in its second = quarter, the first period used in this calculation will consist of the = sum of Q2 + Q1 (of the current fiscal year) plus Q4 +Q3 (of the prior = fiscal year). Each successive period will be based on the next trailing = four quarters of earnings per share.=20 The amount of time used to calculate the Growth Rate is based on two = factors;=20 a.. Availability of data=20 b.. Positive earnings=20 If a stock does not have at least three years of positive earnings = (based on the trailing four-quarter method noted above), an "N/A" will = appear.=20 The amount of time used for this calculation will consist of at least = three years but no more than five years of positive earnings per share. = If a four-quarter period sum is negative, that period and additional = earnings further back in time, will not be used in the calculation of = this data item.=20 - --Katherine - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: "Tom Worley" To: Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 6:40 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI | Sorry, Hermann, I could have explained better. In 1998, ANSI earned 30 | cents. So from 1998 thru last year, earnings declined from 30 cents to = 21 | cents. That's a 30% decline. Annualized would be less, so I can't = explain | the -27%. You should note that IBD uses a 3 year cycle, while DGO = (where | the growth rate shows as +4%) uses 5 years. |=20 | ----- Original Message ----- | From: "Hermann Ertl" | To: | Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 2:14 AM | Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI |=20 |=20 | > From: "Tom Worley" | > Date: Sat, 17 Aug 2002 10:00:20 -0400 | > | > Jack, a good example of how you have to be careful with "calculated" = long | > term statistics. In this case, ANSI earned (by DGO's adjusted | calculations) | > a total of 75 cents in 1999, then dropped to 9 cents in 2000 and 21 = cents | in | > 2001. So 2001 looks good by comparison, but lousy on a 3 year basis. = On | the | > other hand, the forecasts of 51 cents this year and 77 cents next = year | > continue the short term trend higher at a rate that well exceeds = market | > norms. | > | > ----- Original Message ----- | > From: "Jack Tencza" | > Sent: Saturday, August 17, 2002 9:34 AM | > | > | > IBD vital statistics shows ANSI's 3 yr. EPS at -27%. | > Am I correct in assuming this is a straight line | > calculation? If it was $1.00 3 yrs. ago, today it's | > .73? |=20 |=20 |=20 | Tom, your data do not explain, "3 yr. EPS at -27%." | In order to calculate a three year trend (Jack says, "3 yrs. ago") | one needs data for four years - you supplied only data for three | years. |=20 | If you supply data for four years we may can figure out the answer | to Jack's question how the three year trend is calculated, or do | you know? |=20 | Maybe the problem lies somewhere else. Maybe quarterly results were | used. |=20 |=20 |=20 |=20 |=20 | - | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. |=20 |=20 |=20 |=20 | - | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.=20 - ------=_NextPart_000_008B_01C2468D.65E90BE0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Katherine,
 
What I don't know is if IBD is also using the = regression=20 method. The only thing I ever saw confirmed is that they use only a 3 = year=20 period, while DGO uses up to 5 years when available.
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 7:57 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI

Hermann & Tom,
 
No mystery, just need to know the definition, this one from the = DailyGraph=20 help files (highlighting is mine). The regression approach is the reason = why a=20 back of the envelope check doesn't always appear to match their = numbers.
 
Earnings Growth Rate %

This item is calculated by using a least = squares=20 regression fit over a 3-to-5 year period of earnings per share based on = a=20 trailing four-quarter count. For example, if a stock is = currently in=20 its second quarter, the first period used in this calculation will = consist of=20 the sum of Q2 + Q1 (of the current fiscal year) plus Q4 +Q3 (of the = prior fiscal=20 year). Each successive period will be based on the next trailing four = quarters=20 of earnings per share.

The amount of time used to calculate the = Growth=20 Rate is based on two factors;=20

  • Availability of data=20
  • Positive earnings
If a stock does not have at least three years of positive earnings = (based=20 on the trailing four-quarter method noted above), an "N/A" will appear.=20

The amount of time used for this calculation will consist of at = least=20 three years but no more than five years of positive earnings per share. = If a=20 four-quarter period sum is negative, that period and additional earnings = further=20 back in time, will not be used in the calculation of this data item. =

--Katherine
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
=
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 6:40 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI

| Sorry, Hermann, I could have explained better. In 1998, = ANSI=20 earned 30
| cents. So from 1998 thru last year, earnings declined = from 30=20 cents to 21
| cents. That's a 30% decline. Annualized would be less, = so I=20 can't explain
| the -27%.  You should note that IBD uses a 3 = year cycle,=20 while DGO (where
| the growth rate shows as +4%) uses 5 years.
| =
|=20 - ----- Original Message -----
| From: "Hermann Ertl" <hertl@attglobal.net>
| To: = <canslim@lists.xmission.com= >
|=20 Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 2:14 AM
| Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = ANSI
|=20
|
| > From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
| = >=20 Date: Sat, 17 Aug 2002 10:00:20 -0400
| >
| > Jack, a good = example=20 of how you have to be careful with "calculated" long
| > term = statistics.=20 In this case, ANSI earned (by DGO's adjusted
| calculations)
| = > a=20 total of 75 cents in 1999, then dropped to 9 cents in 2000 and 21 = cents
|=20 in
| > 2001. So 2001 looks good by comparison, but lousy on a 3 = year=20 basis. On
| the
| > other hand, the forecasts of 51 cents this = year and=20 77 cents next year
| > continue the short term trend higher at a = rate that=20 well exceeds market
| > norms.
| >
| > ----- Original = Message=20 - -----
| > From: "Jack Tencza" <jtenz@yahoo.com>
| > Sent: = Saturday,=20 August 17, 2002 9:34 AM
| >
| >
| > IBD vital = statistics shows=20 ANSI's 3 yr. EPS at -27%.
| > Am I correct in assuming this is a = straight=20 line
| > calculation? If it was $1.00 3 yrs. ago, today it's
| = >=20 .73?
|
|
|
| Tom, your data do not explain, "3 yr. EPS at = - -27%."
| In order to calculate a three year trend (Jack says, "3 yrs. = ago")
| one needs data for four years - you supplied only data for = three
|=20 years.
|
| If you supply data for four years we may can figure = out the=20 answer
| to Jack's question how the three year trend is calculated, = or=20 do
| you know?
|
| Maybe the problem lies somewhere else. = Maybe=20 quarterly results were
| used.
|
|
|
|
|
| = - -
| -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
| = - -In the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
| -"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email.
|
|
|
|
| -
| -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
| = - -In the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
| -"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_008B_01C2468D.65E90BE0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2820 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.