From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2847 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, August 22 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2847 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] GISX [CANSLIM] 'M' [CANSLIM] Off-topic - Accounting 101 Re: [CANSLIM] Off-topic - Accounting 101 Re: [CANSLIM] Off-topic - Accounting 101 Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout Blues Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI [CANSLIM] IBD Cops Lurk Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Cops Lurk RE: [CANSLIM] The ultimate "M" meter ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 22 Aug 2002 07:49:16 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GISX Hi Tom and John, GISX certainly shows a deceleration in sales growth, but their track record is still impressive. Sometimes the "N" or strategic advantage is more important than a (potentially) temporary deceleration. GISX is a consolidator in a fragmented business.... a common theme for the "N" in CANSLIM if done well. Currently they are funding acquisitions from operating cash flow, even more impressive. My guess is that those investing in GISX are seeing the forest through the trees and are betting that the company's executives are smart merger managers. In the meantime, once you start acquiring and combining financials, there are often glitches in the numbers until the parent can squeeze out the excesses in the companies acquired, put in place efficiencies of scale and build market synergies which fuel future growth in sales and earnings. Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Worley" To: Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 6:33 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GISX | I have been seeing a lot of charts that looked pretty and suddenly spiked up | for no reason I could discern. When I looked at fundies, it was not | justified. So just may be more chart readers that don't care about fundies. | | ----- Original Message ----- | From: "Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA]" | To: | Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 7:30 AM | Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] GISX | | | Tom, | | I don't see what's driving it either. I was wondering if anyone here saw | anything in the fundies that would explain it. I wonder if news will be | coming out and we just don't know it yet or if it's just a baseless | technical move. | | John C. | | -----Original Message----- | From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net] | Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2002 9:14 PM | To: canslim@lists.xmission.com | Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] GISX | | | John, I don't see what would drive it, fundies are not attractive to me. | Latest earnings only up 13%, forecast for full year for only 6% growth, last | two qtrs sales were down from prior year. | | ----- Original Message ----- | From: "Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA]" | To: | Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2002 1:27 PM | Subject: [CANSLIM] GISX | | | Anybody else watching GISX? Looks like it's breaking out of its base under | nice volume. | | John C. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Aug 2002 08:46:56 -0500 (CDT) From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: [CANSLIM] 'M' There are those that argue that the small cap universe is the leading indicator of the trends in the economy. Here is an anecdotal story. My wife works for a small injection molding plastics company. The company supplies parts to a variety of businesses locally and across the country. None of the product is sold to retailers or distributors, the customers of each part produced manage their own distribution channels. Business has been lack luster at best for the last 9 months or more. Of late, as in the last two weeks, business is booming. Customers are calling to place orders, and calling back in 30 minutes wondering why the order is not on their loading dock yet. How many times is this story repeated throughout the USA? I don't know. If this is something more than an isolated case or two, then we may have the beginnings of a trend. Robert Gammon Houston, TX - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Aug 2002 08:47:10 -0600 From: "rolf hertenstein" Subject: [CANSLIM] Off-topic - Accounting 101 I believe there are some (several?) current or retired accounting types in the group. Can anyone recommend a good text book that would help in understanding financial statements (income, balance sheets, etc.). Somehow I feel like I have enough knowledge to be dangerous and a bit of self schooling would be good. A website or something like 'financial statements for dummies' would be the right level. Thanks! Rolf - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Aug 2002 10:44:50 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Off-topic - Accounting 101 Hi Rolf, My interest in financials has always been from a managerial accounting/business analysis/business planning/investing point of view, so you're sure to get a different perspective on the best resources from the true accounting professionals here on the list. Some of these resources may cover basics which you've already mastered, so offered here only as a starting point for you: http://uoutperform.com/New_Folder/fundamental_analysis.htm http://www.investopedia.com/university/fundamentalanalysis/ http://www.WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/Accounting101.doc I don't own this book personally, but flipped through the sample pages at Amazon. It appears to stick to the basics and seems to be straightforward in its approach, though more thorough than the simple articles above. Select Winning Stocks Using Financial Statements: Get Inside a Company's Financial, Use the Pro's Favorite Selection Tools, Determine Key Investment by Richard B. Loth http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/stores/detail/-/books/0793131529/glance /102-5366141-9948140 If you want to get into the depths of fundamental analysis, here are the three on my bookshelf which I like best (definitely not "101" style books!): Fundamental Analysis: A Back-to-the-Basics Investment Guide to Selecting Quality Stocks, Revised Edition by John C. Ritchie http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1557388660/qid=1030030452/sr=2-2/ref= sr_2_2/102-5366141-9948140 Security Analysis on Wall Street by Jeffrey C. Hooke http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0471177415/qid=1030030501/sr=1-2/ref= sr_1_2/102-5366141-9948140 And the grand-daddy of them all: Security Analysis by Sidney Cottle, Roger F. Murray, Frank E. Block, Sisney Cottle, Benjamin Graham http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0070132356/qid=1030030644/sr=1-1/ref= sr_1_1/102-5366141-9948140 - --Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: "rolf hertenstein" To: Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 9:47 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Off-topic - Accounting 101 | I believe there are some (several?) current or retired accounting | types in the group. | | Can anyone recommend a good text book that would help in | understanding financial statements (income, balance sheets, etc.). | Somehow I feel like I have enough knowledge to be dangerous | and a bit of self schooling would be good. | | A website or something like 'financial statements for dummies' | would be the right level. | | Thanks! | | Rolf | | | - | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Aug 2002 11:47:55 -0400 From: "Ann" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Off-topic - Accounting 101 Rolf, I am definitely not an accounting type, but have two books on the topic. I began reading the first (because it was shorter, and so I thought would be easier), but was overwhelmed and had to stop. But I am a neophyte at this. The second book has chapters on financial statements. Richard Loth, Select Winning Stocks Using Financial Statements John Ritchie, Jr., Fundamental Analysis: A Back-to-Basics Investment Guide to Selecting Quality Stocks Good luck with your search. Ann - ----- Original Message ----- From: "rolf hertenstein" To: Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 10:47 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Off-topic - Accounting 101 : I believe there are some (several?) current or retired accounting : types in the group. : : Can anyone recommend a good text book that would help in : understanding financial statements (income, balance sheets, etc.). : Somehow I feel like I have enough knowledge to be dangerous : and a bit of self schooling would be good. : : A website or something like 'financial statements for dummies' : would be the right level. : : Thanks! : : Rolf : : : - : -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" : -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or : -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Aug 2002 13:27:36 EDT From: RWElmer@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout Blues - --part1_198.be29e32.2a967908_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Tom, What you say makes perfect sense to me. While I'm addressing you directly, let me just say that a post of yours a couple of months back influenced me to resume scanning for new highs as possible buy candidates, although my scan looks for as little as 13 week highs. It's helped round out my perspective on the evolving Market. Thanks! Continued success with those nifty small caps. Regards, Robert W. Elmer - --part1_198.be29e32.2a967908_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Tom,

What you say makes perfect sense to me. While I'm addressing you directly, let me just say that a post of yours a couple of months back influenced me to resume scanning for new highs as possible buy candidates, although my scan looks for as little as 13 week highs. It's helped round out my perspective on the evolving Market. Thanks!

Continued success with those nifty small caps.

Regards,

Robert W. Elmer
- --part1_198.be29e32.2a967908_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Aug 2002 17:37:16 EDT From: Spencer48@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ANSI Mike: This is kind of late, but I'm just catching up on my Canslim mailbox. In any event, the length of the handle (as Katherine has pointed out) depends in many cases on the Market. For instance, in the go-go 90's many stocks that broke out had no handle at all. And, as Katherine suggested, a stock that seems as though it is strong, will falter on the handle. For instance, as I inferred from Katherine's missive, if the market is in a rally and the stock's handle keeps falling on high or 50DMA volume, then the stock-even though it may had been strong when forming the cup-is not so strong anymore. jans In a message dated 8/17/2002 4:14:52 AM Eastern Daylight Time, mikegibbons@proactech.com writes: << Yes I saw the weekly chart, but when the handle is short, I think it's the daily chart that's equally important. The behavior in the handle is very important, as Tom has pointed out. While there would be debate that a two week handle is necessary, as he suggests, everyone has their own personal interpetation of the rules based on what works for them in their experience. >> - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Aug 2002 18:08:41 -0400 From: "Duke Miller" Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Cops Lurk This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0001_01C24A06.F26DDA60 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0002_01C24A06.F2704B60" - ------=_NextPart_001_0002_01C24A06.F2704B60 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit All... Earlier this week I got a Certified Letter from IBD warning me that my posting on July 21st of a spreadsheet from Screen of the Day is in violation of the Terms and Conditions of Investors.com. I've conversed with several members off list regarding this matter, and the reactions have been mixed. The point is the material they provide is proprietary. Since not everyone on this list subscribes to IBD, it's important that when you post something herein it is not in violation of their Terms and Conditions. I have my own mixed feelings, ranging from silly to respectful: Silly, because this list is one of the more respected lists out there (as in non-Yahoo-ish), and if ever there was a bonanza freebie for IBD, this is it! You can't buy this kind of publicity! The fact that from time to time we pass along "privileged" information itself stirs curiosity amongst lurkers, whetting their appetites for more. They ultimately end up subscribing, etc, etc. I am, however, respectful, because they're right--they own the material and it's for the personal use only of subscribers. I just wonder which one of us is the "mole". C'est la vie.... Duke This email, including any attachments, was scanned by Norton Anti-Virus prior to being sent. - ------=_NextPart_001_0002_01C24A06.F2704B60 Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message
All...
 
Earlier this = week I got a=20 Certified Letter from IBD warning me that my posting on July = 21st of a=20 spreadsheet from Screen of the Day is in violation of the Terms and = Conditions=20 of Investors.com. 
 
I've conversed = with several=20 members off list regarding this matter, and the reactions have been = mixed. =20
 
The point is = the material=20 they provide is proprietary.  Since not everyone on this list=20 subscribes to IBD, it's important that when you post something herein it = is not=20 in violation of their Terms and Conditions. 
 
I have my own = mixed=20 feelings, ranging from silly to respectful: 
 
Silly, because = this list is=20 one of the more respected lists out there (as in non-Yahoo-ish), and if = ever=20 there was a bonanza freebie for IBD, this is it!  You can't buy = this kind=20 of publicity!  The fact that from time to time we pass along = "privileged"=20 information itself stirs curiosity amongst lurkers, whetting their = appetites for=20 more. They ultimately end up subscribing, etc, etc.  =
 
I am, however, = respectful,=20 because they're right--they own the material and it's for the personal = use only=20 of subscribers.  I just wonder which one of us is the=20 "mole".
 
C'est la=20 vie....
 
Duke
 

This email, including any attachments, was scanned by = Norton=20 Anti-Virus prior to being sent.

3D""
 
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Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Aug 2002 15:18:51 -0700 From: "Jim Fulling" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Cops Lurk This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_016A_01C249EF.38B124E0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_016B_01C249EF.38B124E0" - ------=_NextPart_001_016B_01C249EF.38B124E0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Messageduke i think they simply read the emails. in today's paper in the = investor's corner they say in an internet message board etc. well what = they are referring to (i believe) was said by K.A.M. (pronounced CALM) = just recently on this board. the north idaho lurker (or is it lunker) jim fulling ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Duke Miller=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 3:08 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Cops Lurk All... Earlier this week I got a Certified Letter from IBD warning me that my = posting on July 21st of a spreadsheet from Screen of the Day is in = violation of the Terms and Conditions of Investors.com. =20 I've conversed with several members off list regarding this matter, = and the reactions have been mixed. =20 The point is the material they provide is proprietary. Since not = everyone on this list subscribes to IBD, it's important that when you = post something herein it is not in violation of their Terms and = Conditions. =20 I have my own mixed feelings, ranging from silly to respectful: =20 Silly, because this list is one of the more respected lists out there = (as in non-Yahoo-ish), and if ever there was a bonanza freebie for IBD, = this is it! You can't buy this kind of publicity! The fact that from = time to time we pass along "privileged" information itself stirs = curiosity amongst lurkers, whetting their appetites for more. They = ultimately end up subscribing, etc, etc. =20 I am, however, respectful, because they're right--they own the = material and it's for the personal use only of subscribers. I just = wonder which one of us is the "mole". C'est la vie.... Duke This email, including any attachments, was scanned by Norton = Anti-Virus prior to being sent.=20 - ------=_NextPart_001_016B_01C249EF.38B124E0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message
duke i think they simply read the = emails. in=20 today's paper in the investor's corner they say in an internet message = board=20 etc. well what they are referring to (i believe) was said by K.A.M. = (pronounced=20 CALM) just recently on this board.
the north idaho lurker (or is it = lunker) jim=20 fulling
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Duke=20 Miller
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 = 3:08=20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Cops = Lurk

All...
 
Earlier this = week I got a=20 Certified Letter from IBD warning me that my posting on July = 21st of a=20 spreadsheet from Screen of the Day is in violation of the Terms and = Conditions=20 of Investors.com. 
 
I've = conversed with=20 several members off list regarding this matter, and the reactions have = been=20 mixed. 
 
The point is = the material=20 they provide is proprietary.  Since not everyone on this = list=20 subscribes to IBD, it's important that when you post something herein = it is=20 not in violation of their Terms and Conditions.  =
 
I have my own = mixed=20 feelings, ranging from silly to respectful: 
 
Silly, = because this list=20 is one of the more respected lists out there (as in non-Yahoo-ish), = and if=20 ever there was a bonanza freebie for IBD, this is it!  You can't = buy this=20 kind of publicity!  The fact that from time to time we pass along = "privileged" information itself stirs curiosity amongst lurkers, = whetting=20 their appetites for more. They ultimately end up subscribing, etc, = etc. =20
 
I am, = however,=20 respectful, because they're right--they own the material and it's for = the=20 personal use only of subscribers.  I just wonder which one of us = is the=20 "mole".
 
C'est la=20 vie....
 
Duke
 

This email, including any attachments, was scanned by = Norton=20 Anti-Virus prior to being sent.

3D""
 
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Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Aug 2002 18:20:38 -0500 From: "Curt Corley" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] The ultimate "M" meter This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0001_01C24A08.9EB71E70 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable It certainly wasn=92t my intention to do any commercial solicitation. I = am not -- in any way -- professionally affiliated with the products or people that I mentioned earlier and could not benefit from endorsing their products. I=92m a software engineer working on a missile defense project for a major aeorospace-defense company. The sources I mentioned were used as references only, because I like to back up my words with examples and facts.=20 =20 You=92re right. I definitely did not catch the fact that commercial solicitation is prohibited =96 especially since there have been numerous references to commercial sources within the E-mails here in the last few days, including IBD, Daily Graphs, HTTMIS, and links to cup-with-handle sites. However, I=92m sorry that for the faux pas and will now explain why I joined the group. =20 I started getting interested in investments a few years back because of my 401K account. Unfortunately, I bought into the hype that you should buy indexed funds using dollar-cost averaging. Well, this worked for a while, and I was satisfied with the results. However, when the bear market started about 2 =BD years ago, I lost a considerable sum of = money. Whenever something goes sour, I don=92t cry about it. I analyze what = went wrong and figure out what I can do to correct the problem. So after getting crushed at the onslaught of the bear market, I started studying and reading everything I could get my hands on concerning investment and trading of stock securities. Naturally, my enthusiasm boiled over into the work place. I was talking to a coworker who is a diehard CANSLIM advocate, so I bought the HTTMIS book. WON=92s book made a lot of sense to me, and I decided to learn everything I could about CANSLIM. While searching the internet for CANSLIM sites, I found this mailing list. =20 =20 I was initially offended to be accused of commercial solicitation (can you blame me?). However, after getting over my initial reaction and thinking things over from your point of view, there are no hard feelings. I can understand your concern about the quality of this mailing list. If people let salesmen get on the mailing list and start pitching their products, the list would degenerate with spam. It has been challenging enough to find enough time to read through the dozens of good messages that I=92ve received every day so far. I respect your assertiveness in ensuring the quality of this list. Thank you. =20 From what I=92ve seen so far, you have some great advice on this mailing list. I hope I too can contribute something useful in the future. =20 =20 Curt =20 - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 6:28 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The ultimate "M" meter =20 Curt, if you had lurked here more than a few days, you might have caught the fact that commercial solicitation is prohibited. =20 If that's not what you intended, then I suggest you introduce yourself and tell us why you have joined our group. =20 - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Curt Corley =20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 3:16AM Subject: [CANSLIM] The ultimate "M" meter =20 I=92ve been lurking here for a few days, and I would like to put in my = two cents=92 worth about the question of whether we=92re in a bull or a bear market. I=92d also like to give my personal opinion of what the = ultimate =93M=94 meter is. But first, I want to get some definitions down to = make sure we=92re speaking the same language here. I will use the = definitions that are put forth by the Dow Theory and which, IMHO, are best described in the book =93Technical Analysis of Stock Trends=94 by by Robert D. Edwards, John Magee, W. H. C. Bassetti (Editor). =20 =20 What=92s a bull/bear market? =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D In =93TA of Stock Trends,=94 the authors state that a primary trend is = the general direction of price movement over a year or more. A bull market is a primary trend containing higher highs and higher lows in price. A bear market is a primary trend containing lower highs and lower lows in price. Within the primary trend are secondary trends. Secondary trends last from 3 weeks to many months, and they do not (repeat not) qualify as bear or bull markets. The secondary trends are merely the corrections within a bull market and the rallies within a bear markets. In addition to the primary and secondary trends, there are minor trends that usually last less than 6 days and rarely as long as 3 weeks, but they are of little importance here. The main thing that I would like to get across is this: Using the definitions just described, you can=92t talk about bear and bull markets unless you=92re talking about a time frame of about a year. =20 What do we use for an =93M=94 Meter? =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D Now that the definitions are out of the way, we can talk about how to get in and out of bull markets easily using our =93M=94 meter. If = you=92re having CWs (i.e., CANSLIM Withdrawals) during a bear market, you might try CANSLIM=92ing during a rally within the bear market. You can use = our =93M=94 meter to detect rallies as well. The =93M=94 meter is so simple = that I feel like a few of you are not going to believe me and will tell me to pack sand =96 but, oh well, here it goes. The =93M=94 meters are moving averages. =20 For a good explanation as to why this works, visit http://www.401k-maximizer.com/. =20 =20 How do we use the =93M=94 Meter? =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D The index you choose to graph will depend on the kind of security = you=92re investing in. For general growth stocks, the QQQ ticker symbol (NASDAQ) is a good one to use. For especially small cap growth stocks, you can choose one of the Russell indexes, such as the Russell 2000. To get a feel for whether you=92re in a bull/bear market, plot the index against = a 200-day moving average. To get a feel for whether you=92re in a rally/correction, plot the index against a 50-day moving average. The reasons we choose a 200-day average for bear/bull =93M=94 indicator are because it is: (1) a length of time that approximates the number of trading days in one year =96 the minimum time frame for a bull/bear market, and (2) it is an indicator that is highly watched by many elephants. The reasons we choose a 50-day average for the rally/correction =93M=94 indicator are fairly the same: (1) it=92s a = highly watched indicator, (2) it is a time frame that makes a good compromise between getting you in and out of a rally without whipsawing you in and out. =20 Defense of the =93M=94 Meter =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D Try plotting a 3-year graph of QQQ against a 200-day EMA moving average. Imagine yourself getting in on that market when the prices crossed above the 200-day MA and getting out of the market when the prices crossed below the 200-day MA. You might have gotten whip-sawed 3 or 4 times between April and September of 2000 (allowing you to participate in the rallies of June and August). But you would have stayed out of the bear market since September. =20 Are we still in a bear market? =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D Truth is: nobody knows yet, because enough time hasn=92t passed. = That=92s the way it goes. In a reversal like this, you never know whether it=92s rally or the start of a new bull market until enough time has passed (like the saying goes: Hindsight is 20/20). But whether we=92re truly = in a bull market or bear market is irrelevant to me. All I care about is our meter. And the meter says this. Yesterday (Aug. 21) QQQ finally crossed above the 50-day EMA, but it=92s still a long way from reaching the 200-day EMA. I might get into stocks slowly and cautiously right now, but I=92m certainly not ready to jump in with both feet. =20 - -- Curt - ------=_NextPart_000_0001_01C24A08.9EB71E70 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

It certainly wasn’t my = intention to do any commercial solicitation. I am not -- in any way -- professionally affiliated with the products or people that I mentioned earlier and = could not benefit from endorsing their products.=A0 I’m a software engineer working on a missile defense = project for a major aeorospace-defense company.=A0 The sources I mentioned were used = as references only, because I like to back up my words with examples and = facts.

 

You’re right.=A0 I definitely did not catch the = fact that commercial solicitation is prohibited – especially since there have been = numerous references to commercial sources within the E-mails here in the last few = days, including IBD, Daily Graphs, HTTMIS, and links to cup-with-handle = sites.=A0=A0 However, I’m sorry that = for the faux pas and will now explain why I joined the = group.

 

I started getting interested in investments a few years back because of my 401K account.=A0 Unfortunately, I bought into the = hype that you should buy indexed funds using dollar-cost averaging.=A0 Well, this worked for a while, and = I was satisfied with the results.=A0 = However, when the bear market started about 2 =BD years ago, I lost a = considerable sum of money.=A0 Whenever something = goes sour, I don’t cry about it.=A0 I = analyze what went wrong and figure out what I can do to correct the problem.=A0 So after getting crushed at the = onslaught of the bear market, I started studying and reading everything I could get = my hands on concerning investment and trading of stock securities.=A0 Naturally, my enthusiasm boiled = over into the work place.=A0 I was talking to = a coworker who is a diehard CANSLIM advocate, so I bought the HTTMIS book.=A0 WON’s book made a lot of sense to me, and I decided to learn everything I could = about CANSLIM.=A0 While searching the = internet for CANSLIM sites, I found this mailing list.=A0

 

I was initially offended to be = accused of commercial solicitation (can you blame me?).=A0 However, after getting over my initial reaction and thinking = things over from your point of view, there are no hard feelings.=A0 I can understand your concern = about the quality of this mailing list.=A0 = If people let salesmen get on the mailing list and start pitching their products, = the list would degenerate with spam.=A0 = It has been challenging enough to find enough time to read through the dozens = of good messages that I’ve received every day so far.=A0 I respect your assertiveness in = ensuring the quality of this list.=A0 Thank = you.

 

From what I’ve seen so far, = you have some great advice on this mailing list.=A0=A0 I hope I too can contribute something useful in the future.=A0

 

Curt

 

-----Original = Message-----
From: = owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com<= /span> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com<= /span>] On Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: = Thursday, August 22, = 2002 6:28 AM
To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com<= /span>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = The ultimate "M" meter

 

Curt, if you had lurked = here more than a few days, you might have caught the fact that commercial = solicitation is prohibited.

 

If that's not what you = intended, then I suggest you introduce yourself and tell us why you have joined = our group.

 

----- Original Message = - -----

Sent: Thursday, August 22, = 2002 3:16AM

Subject: [CANSLIM] The ultimate "M" meter

 

I’ve been lurking = here for a few days, and I would like to put in my two cents’ worth about the question of whether we’re in a bull or a bear market.=A0 I’d also like to give my = personal opinion of what the ultimate “M” meter is.=A0 But first, I want to get some = definitions down to make sure we’re speaking the same language here.=A0 I will use the definitions that = are put forth by the Dow Theory and which, IMHO, are best described in the book = “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends” by by Robert D. Edwards, John Magee, W. H. C. Bassetti (Editor).=A0

 

What’s a bull/bear = market?

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

In “TA of Stock = Trends,” the authors state that a primary trend is the general direction of price movement over a year or more.=A0 = A bull market is a primary trend containing higher highs and higher lows in = price.=A0 A bear market is a primary trend = containing lower highs and lower lows in price.=A0 Within the primary trend are secondary trends.=A0 Secondary trends last from 3 weeks = to many months, and they do not (repeat not) qualify as bear or bull = markets.=A0 The secondary trends are merely = the corrections within a bull market and the rallies within a bear = markets.=A0 In addition to the primary and = secondary trends, there are minor trends that usually last less than 6 days and = rarely as long as 3 weeks, but they are of little importance here.=A0 The main thing that I would like = to get across is this:=A0 Using the = definitions just described, you can’t talk about bear and bull markets unless you’re talking about a time frame of about a = year.

 

What do we use for an “M” Meter?

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

Now that the definitions = are out of the way, we can talk about how to get in and out of bull markets easily = using our “M” meter.=A0 If you’re having CWs (i.e., CANSLIM Withdrawals) during a bear = market, you might try CANSLIM’ing during a rally within the bear market.=A0 You can use our “M” = meter to detect rallies as well.=A0 The “M” meter is so simple that I feel like a few of you are not = going to believe me and will tell me to pack sand – but, oh well, here = it goes.=A0 The “M” = meters are moving averages.=A0 =

For a good explanation as = to why this works, visit http://www.401k-maximizer.com/.=A0=A0=A0 =

 

How do we use the = “M” Meter?

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

The index you choose to = graph will depend on the kind of security you’re investing in.=A0 For general growth stocks, the QQQ = ticker symbol (NASDAQ) is a good one to use.=A0 For especially small cap growth stocks, you can choose one of the Russell indexes, such as the Russell 2000.=A0 To get a feel for whether you’re in a bull/bear market, = plot the index against a 200-day moving average.=A0 To get a feel for whether you’re in a rally/correction, = plot the index against a 50-day moving average.=A0 The reasons we choose a 200-day average for bear/bull = “M” indicator are because it is: (1) a length of time that approximates the = number of trading days in one year – the minimum time frame for a = bull/bear market, and (2) it is an indicator that is highly watched by many elephants.=A0 The reasons we = choose a 50-day average for the rally/correction “M” indicator are = fairly the same: (1) it’s a highly watched indicator, (2) it is a time = frame that makes a good compromise between getting you in and out of a rally = without whipsawing you in and out.

 

Defense of the = “M” Meter

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

Try plotting a 3-year graph = of QQQ against a 200-day EMA moving average.=A0 Imagine yourself getting in on that market when the prices = crossed above the 200-day MA and getting out of the market when the prices crossed = below the 200-day MA. You might have gotten whip-sawed 3 or 4 times between April = and September of 2000 (allowing you to participate in the rallies of June = and August).=A0 But you would have = stayed out of the bear market since September.

 

Are we still in a bear = market?

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

Truth is: nobody knows yet, = because enough time hasn’t passed. That’s the way it goes.=A0 In a reversal like this, you never = know whether it’s rally or the start of a new bull market until enough = time has passed (like the saying goes: Hindsight is 20/20).=A0 But whether we’re truly in a = bull market or bear market is irrelevant to me.=A0 All I care about is our meter.=A0 And the meter says this.=A0 Yesterday (Aug. 21) QQQ finally crossed above the 50-day EMA, but it’s still a long way from reaching the 200-day EMA.=A0 I might get into stocks slowly and = cautiously right now, but I’m certainly not ready to jump in with both = feet.

 

-- = Curt

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