From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2858 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, August 24 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2858 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout Blues [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview Re: [CANSLIM] CACI (CAI) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 24 Aug 2002 16:36:55 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Introduction This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_014C_01C24B8C.75010160 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Thanks Robert, and a more than adequate intro.=20 - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: RWElmer@aol.com=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, August 24, 2002 3:27 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Introduction Greetings All,=20 In reading another post this morning I found that it was considered good = manners here to give a formal introduction of yourself. I had seen many = do it over the months but didn't realize it was expected. My apologies = for the faux pas.=20 I am a Realtor in Redding, CA who has been following the Market since = February of 1999. Our office started an Investment Club at that time and = I volunteered to help run it. I knew absolutely nothing about the Market = when we started but I had a keen interest in learning about it. I have = devoured everything I could about stocks ever since and have shared my = education with our Club. We get together monthly and discuss the various = concepts learned so as to adapt the more promising thoughts along the = way. I have exposed myself to the NAIC method, which our Club used for a = time; the Motley Fool methods; VectorVest, which we're very happy with; = and now CANSLIM; with various smaller technical trading forays along the = way. All and all we use VectorVest for our mining, timing, and portfolio = management and are currently incorporating CANSLIM into our method.=20 I was invited to this CANSLIM Group several months back, at the end of = 2001 I believe, but have mostly lurked while I learned what I could = about CANSLIM. I have long since gone through the Learning Center at IBD = and have recently read and reread HTMMIS and the 24 Questions books. One = thing that I found comforting is that many of the rules our Club = developed along the way are exactly the things WON espouses too. More = importantly, however, are the things we didn't think of. Prime among = these is the questionable nature of using PEs to judge a stock's = attractiveness. In reality we had gravitated towards the Motley Fool = model, which valued stocks more on a PEG basis. After exposing ourselves = to CANSLIM, however, we all agree that this is a model we prefer to = adapt.=20 I hope that serves as an adequate introduction. I'll only add that I = think this is as good a group as I've seen to discuss stocks with and I = really appreciate the civility here.=20 Best Regards,=20 Robert W. Elmer=20 - ------=_NextPart_000_014C_01C24B8C.75010160 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Thanks Robert, and a more than adequate intro.=20
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: RWElmer@aol.com
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Saturday, August 24, 2002 3:27 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Introduction

Greetings = All,

In=20 reading another post this morning I found that it was considered good = manners=20 here to give a formal introduction of yourself. I had seen many do it = over the=20 months but didn't realize it was expected. My apologies for the faux = pas.=20

I am a Realtor in Redding, CA who has been following the Market = since=20 February of 1999. Our office started an Investment Club at that time and = I=20 volunteered to help run it. I knew absolutely nothing about the Market = when we=20 started but I had a keen interest in learning about it. I have devoured=20 everything I could about stocks ever since and have shared my education = with our=20 Club. We get together monthly and discuss the various concepts learned = so as to=20 adapt the more promising thoughts along the way. I have exposed myself = to the=20 NAIC method, which our Club used for a time; the Motley Fool methods;=20 VectorVest, which we're very happy with; and now CANSLIM; with various = smaller=20 technical trading forays along the way. All and all we use VectorVest = for our=20 mining, timing, and portfolio management and are currently incorporating = CANSLIM=20 into our method.

I was invited to this CANSLIM Group several = months=20 back, at the end of 2001 I believe, but have mostly lurked while I = learned what=20 I could about CANSLIM. I have long since gone through the Learning = Center at IBD=20 and have recently read and reread HTMMIS and the 24 Questions books. One = thing=20 that I found comforting is that many of the rules our Club developed = along the=20 way are exactly the things WON espouses too. More importantly, however, = are the=20 things we didn't think of. Prime among these is the questionable nature = of using=20 PEs to judge a stock's attractiveness. In reality we had gravitated = towards the=20 Motley Fool model, which valued stocks more on a PEG basis. After = exposing=20 ourselves to CANSLIM, however, we all agree that this is a model we = prefer to=20 adapt.

I hope that serves as an adequate introduction. I'll only = add=20 that I think this is as good a group as I've seen to discuss stocks with = and I=20 really appreciate the civility here.

Best Regards, =

Robert W.=20 Elmer
- ------=_NextPart_000_014C_01C24B8C.75010160-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 24 Aug 2002 16:52:24 EDT From: Chazmoore@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Breakout Blues - --part1_76.214e9977.2a994c08_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Mike: Many thanks for the breakout report and analysis. Over this past week as I watched these c/h appear to fail, it occurred to me that all of the cups were the result of the late July selloff. My question to the group. Are these real c/h's or are these stocks simply returning to the level that they would have been at had no selloff occurred? I guess we will know in another week or so. Charley - --part1_76.214e9977.2a994c08_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Mike: Many thanks for the breakout report and analysis.
Over this past week as I watched these c/h appear to fail, it occurred to me that all of the cups were the result of the late July selloff. My question to the group. Are these real c/h's or are these stocks simply returning to the level that they would have been at had no selloff occurred?

I guess we will know in another week or so.

Charley
- --part1_76.214e9977.2a994c08_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 24 Aug 2002 17:16:04 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0173_01C24B91.ED2521D0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0174_01C24B91.ED2521D0" - ------=_NextPart_001_0174_01C24B91.ED2521D0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS Leading indicators fell 0.4% in July after falling 0.2% in June, biggest = drop since Sept 2001. Expectations were for a drop of 0.5%. Biggest = factor was the decline in the stock markets, without that, the drop was = only 0.1%. U.S. Trade Gap fell to $37.1 billion in June from $37.85 billion in May, = ending a two month streak of record deficits. Expectations were for a = drop to 37.5. It was still the third largest ever deficit, and means Q2 = contains two records, plus the 3rd biggest. Increases in imports = continue to be the dominant factor, indicating strong consumer spending = in this country. Exports jumped to $82 billion from 80, indicating = stronger demand for US goods, largely due the weaker US dollar. The = strength of imports throughout the 2nd Quarter could cause a greater = downward revision (from 1.1%) in next week's first revision report. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" I have not spent much time this weekend yet reviewing the overall = market, but from the observations I was able to make during the week, I = believe every significant index has now produced higher highs to go = along with higher lows. FOR THE MOMENT, a bottom was put in place on = 7/24/02. Some of the indexes are now back above the 9/11 lows, some have = moved above the neckline of the h&s pattern, most are now over at least = the 20 dma, if not the 50 dma. But even if 7/24 proves to be the = ultimate bottom, and only time (months, if not years) will confirm this, = we remain with tremendous overhead resistance that will likely take = months (if not years) to crack. If we have begun a sustainable new bull = market, and I am not saying we have, then we will enter it with a new = and more mature, and experienced, group of investors than we did with = the last one. This time, they have seen what can happen with a bear = market, you actually can LOSE money. Meanwhile, both NYSE and NASDAQ are = overbought. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular assessment of the health of CANSLIM's "M" and, = as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast for this = year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no other due = diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM patterns = I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases (shown as = Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR (Lower Left = Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM pattern. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend is growing, but not = rapidly. Stocks hitting new highs are increasing in numbers, as are = stocks trading over their 50 dma. AF - c&h AGII - weak double bottom AMSG - high handle (failing?) ANDE - B4+ BLUD - LLUR, at high end of range BRKL - c&h, capitulation day at the right place, vol weak on right side, = but declining in handle CVH - b/o from the handle may be failing, however closed in the upper = half of the range on Friday on above average volume, on a 2% down day in = the markets DCOM - double bottom DF - too steep to be a cup, funnel maybe? EPIQ - c&h, owned, in VR Fund EWBC - double bottom FCN - B4 FESX - another funnel FOSL - putting in a base on top of a double bottom GGC - decent triple bottom HARB - B3 HET - saucer HRB - high handle IBKC - B3 ISLE - b/o from the double bottom holding on above ADV PORT - B4 SBMC - double bottom TTWO - nice c&h, altho deep Happy hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0174_01C24B91.ED2521D0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
ECONOMICS
Leading indicators fell 0.4% in July after = falling 0.2% in=20 June, biggest drop since Sept 2001. Expectations were for a drop of = 0.5%.=20 Biggest factor was the decline in the stock markets, without that, the = drop was=20 only 0.1%.
 
U.S. Trade Gap fell to $37.1 billion in June = from $37.85=20 billion in May, ending a two month streak of record deficits. = Expectations were=20 for a drop to 37.5. It was still the third largest ever deficit, and = means Q2=20 contains two records, plus the 3rd biggest. Increases in imports = continue to be=20 the dominant factor, indicating strong consumer spending in this = country.=20 Exports jumped to $82 billion from 80, indicating stronger demand for US = goods,=20 largely due the weaker US dollar. The strength of imports throughout the = 2nd=20 Quarter could cause a greater downward revision (from 1.1%) in next = week's first=20 revision report.
"M"
I have not spent much time this weekend yet = reviewing the=20 overall market, but from the observations I was able to make during the = week, I=20 believe every significant index has now produced higher highs to go = along with=20 higher lows. FOR THE MOMENT, a bottom was put in place on 7/24/02. Some = of the=20 indexes are now back above the 9/11 lows, some have moved above the = neckline of=20 the h&s pattern, most are now over at least the 20 dma, if not the = 50 dma.=20 But even if 7/24 proves to be the ultimate bottom, and only time = (months, if not=20 years) will confirm this, we remain with tremendous overhead resistance = that=20 will likely take months (if not years) to crack. If we have begun a = sustainable=20 new bull market, and I am not saying we have, then we will enter it with = a new=20 and more mature, and experienced, group of investors than we did with = the last=20 one. This time, they have seen what can happen with a bear market, you = actually=20 can LOSE money. Meanwhile, both NYSE and NASDAQ are overbought.
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20
This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular assessment of the health of = CANSLIM's "M"=20 and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with=20 constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.
 
I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I no longer will actively = consider earnings=20 forecast for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. = I do no=20 other due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any = CANSLIM=20 patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat = bases=20 (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower=20 Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern.
 
The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend is=20 growing, but not rapidly. Stocks hitting new highs are increasing in = numbers, as=20 are stocks trading over their 50 dma.
 
AF - c&h
AGII - weak double bottom
AMSG - high handle (failing?)
ANDE - B4+
BLUD - LLUR, at high end of range
BRKL - c&h, capitulation day at the right = place, vol=20 weak on right side, but declining in handle
CVH - b/o from the handle may be failing, = however closed=20 in the upper half of the range on Friday on above average volume, on a = 2% down=20 day in the markets
DCOM - double bottom
DF - too steep to be a cup, funnel = maybe?
EPIQ - c&h, owned, in VR Fund
EWBC - double bottom
FCN - B4
FESX - another funnel
FOSL - putting in a base on top of a double=20 bottom
GGC - decent triple bottom
HARB - B3
HET - saucer
HRB - high handle
IBKC - B3
ISLE - b/o from the double bottom holding on = above=20 ADV
PORT - B4
SBMC - double bottom
TTWO - nice c&h, altho deep
 
Happy hunting,
 
3D""
 
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: = TexWorley
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Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 24 Aug 2002 18:23:53 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CACI (CAI) This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_01E3_01C24B9B.66F39A10 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable so far, looks like "b" is the right choice, with volume declining. But I = am still rooting for "e" - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Chazmoore@aol.com=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 7:20 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] CACI (CAI) I have been watching this technology systems company form a near perfect = double bottom. On April 17th it hit a high of $40.63 and then dropped to = a low of $27.43 on May 2nd, climbed back to $38.54 on June 28th and then = returned to a new low of $27.45 on August 5th. Yesterday it jumped up to = $38.20 on volume equal to 148% of average, and seemed ready to blast out = today. Instead, it dropped $1.20 on below average volume.=20 What is the most logical next move?=20 a). It is gathering steam for a sharp upward move.=20 b). It will now form a handle.=20 c). The chain is broken and it will move to a new low, or will begin to = move sideways.=20 d). None of the above.=20 e). Put on a straw hat, pick up a cane, and sing, "Yes sir, she's my = baby."=20 Charley=20 - ------=_NextPart_000_01E3_01C24B9B.66F39A10 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
so far, looks like "b" is the right choice, with = volume=20 declining. But I am still rooting for "e"
 
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Chazmoore@aol.com=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 7:20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] CACI (CAI)

I have been = watching this=20 technology systems company form a near perfect double bottom. On April = 17th it=20 hit a high of $40.63 and then dropped to a low of $27.43 on May 2nd, = climbed=20 back to $38.54 on June 28th and then returned to a new low of $27.45 on = August=20 5th. Yesterday it jumped up to $38.20 on volume equal to 148% of = average, and=20 seemed ready to blast out today. Instead, it dropped $1.20 on below = average=20 volume.
What is the most logical next move?
a). It is gathering = steam=20 for a sharp upward move.
b). It will now form a handle.
c). The = chain is=20 broken and it will move to a new low, or will begin to move sideways. =
d).=20 None of the above.
e). Put on a straw hat, pick up a cane, and sing, = "Yes=20 sir, she's my baby."

Charley
- ------=_NextPart_000_01E3_01C24B9B.66F39A10-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2858 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.