From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2867 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Tuesday, August 27 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2867 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR Re: Volatility (was [CANSLIM] CSTR) Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 27 Aug 2002 08:52:41 -0700 From: Ian Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR I heard it from someone. But I believe that Katherine's post looked like a Briefing.com mention of the rumour. I was waiting for an end-of-day volume break below $31 before shorting CSTR this time. By the time I got up this morning, it was already at around $26 - this ugly market is making me lazy. The bright side is that the incredible Durable Orders report for July confirms my earlier observation that 'boring' corporate america has used accomodative fiscal policy to reload their coffers - as they now appear to be spending some of their new cash. Now the trick will be to see if any new growth companies emerge from it. Ian - ----- Original Message ----- From: Norman To: Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 7:56 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR > Ian, > > Where did you "hear" this rumor? Not that I listen to analysts or rumors > > Norm > > (Now Playing: Money For Nothing-Dire Straights) > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Ian" > To: > Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 10:06 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR > > > > Mike: > > > > Rumour has it that this 'sell-based' research firm has put out a negative > > report on CSTR today: http://www.offwallstreet.com/visitor/ > > > > IMHO, CSTR has been assigned a nosebleed valuation based on their real > > historical earnings retention. I have been shorting it/looking to short it > > since March. > > > > Ian > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: > > To: > > Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 7:24 AM > > Subject: [CANSLIM] CSTR > > > > > > > Does anyone know what is going on with this stock? Got in late to the > > > office today and it is down 18%!!! > > > > > > I know we are supposed to sell at 7-8%, but now do I sell anyway, or > wait > > > it out to see if the day may turn a bit? > > > > > > Thanks > > > > > > Mike Niemotka , PE > > > Sr. Principal Engineer > > > Baxter Healthcare Corporation > > > Route 120 & Wilson Road > > > Round Lake, IL 60073 > > > Tel (847) 270-4075 > > > Fax (847) 270-4525 > > > michael_niemotka@baxter.com > > > > > > > > > > > > - > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 27 Aug 2002 10:34:28 -0500 From: "Norman" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR Looking only at the chart, I don't see anything that would have made me sell before today. Actually looks pretty good. Maybe Ed's right, too many eyes. Norm - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 10:22 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR > > I appreciate all the advice that I have gotten. It is when stuff like this > happens that makes me question a trading "method". I'm sure if CSTR stays > down, it will only be a matter of time before I see and IBD write up using > their famous 20-20 hindsight to show why it was destined to fall. Does > anyone else see anything in the price volume action that would lead them to > believe that this was going to happen, or is it the M that is still not > strong enough? > > Okay, now I feel a bit better after venting. Thank you all! > > > Mike Niemotka , PE > Sr. Principal Engineer > Baxter Healthcare Corporation > Route 120 & Wilson Road > Round Lake, IL 60073 > Tel (847) 270-4075 > Fax (847) 270-4525 > michael_niemotka@baxter.com > > > > "Edward W. Gjertsen > II" To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > cc: > Sent by: Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR > owner-canslim@lists.xm > ission.com > > > 08/27/2002 10:09 AM > Please respond to > canslim > > > > > > > Dear Mike > > CSTR was a favorite of many Canslimers - with the problems we faced with > buying CVH recently (too many chasing too few) we are seeing similar > results, which unfortunately are on the downside. You mentioned that > you got into the office late. Remember - there are people who do this > for a living with millions at stake. A slight smell of weakness and > they may sell some of their position to take some risk off the table - > selling begets selling and before you know it CSTR is down over 20%. We > have been in this situation several times before - and sold quickly - > and yes much to our chagrin - some stocks came roaring back - but in > other cases the stock kept declining. Throw out your ego - sell - and > if CSTR sets up again look at buying it. I don't want to get too deep > into wash sale rules, but you can't take and loss on CSTR if you buy it > back within 30 days. Good luck > > Ed Gjertsen II > ed@macktracks.com > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of > michael_niemotka@baxter.com > Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 9:25 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] CSTR > > Does anyone know what is going on with this stock? Got in late to the > office today and it is down 18%!!! > > I know we are supposed to sell at 7-8%, but now do I sell anyway, or > wait > it out to see if the day may turn a bit? > > Thanks > > Mike Niemotka , PE > Sr. Principal Engineer > Baxter Healthcare Corporation > Route 120 & Wilson Road > Round Lake, IL 60073 > Tel (847) 270-4075 > Fax (847) 270-4525 > michael_niemotka@baxter.com > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 27 Aug 2002 10:45:41 -0500 From: "Edward W. Gjertsen II" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR Michael, With the PE on CSTR in the mid 70's, there is risk. Even though WON doesn't really pay attention to PE, many do. Second, this is not the first time CSTR has fallen so quickly. One additional analysis we perform is to review charts form mini implosions. There have been many stocks we have passed over due to a volatile trading history. Stocks that have recent (6 months) daily ranges of greater than 10% carry additional risks for Canslimers. Ed Gjertsen II ed@macktracks.com - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of michael_niemotka@baxter.com Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 10:22 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR I appreciate all the advice that I have gotten. It is when stuff like this happens that makes me question a trading "method". I'm sure if CSTR stays down, it will only be a matter of time before I see and IBD write up using their famous 20-20 hindsight to show why it was destined to fall. Does anyone else see anything in the price volume action that would lead them to believe that this was going to happen, or is it the M that is still not strong enough? Okay, now I feel a bit better after venting. Thank you all! Mike Niemotka , PE Sr. Principal Engineer Baxter Healthcare Corporation Route 120 & Wilson Road Round Lake, IL 60073 Tel (847) 270-4075 Fax (847) 270-4525 michael_niemotka@baxter.com "Edward W. Gjertsen II" To: canslim@lists.xmission.com cc: Sent by: Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR owner-canslim@lists.xm ission.com 08/27/2002 10:09 AM Please respond to canslim Dear Mike CSTR was a favorite of many Canslimers - with the problems we faced with buying CVH recently (too many chasing too few) we are seeing similar results, which unfortunately are on the downside. You mentioned that you got into the office late. Remember - there are people who do this for a living with millions at stake. A slight smell of weakness and they may sell some of their position to take some risk off the table - selling begets selling and before you know it CSTR is down over 20%. We have been in this situation several times before - and sold quickly - and yes much to our chagrin - some stocks came roaring back - but in other cases the stock kept declining. Throw out your ego - sell - and if CSTR sets up again look at buying it. I don't want to get too deep into wash sale rules, but you can't take and loss on CSTR if you buy it back within 30 days. Good luck Ed Gjertsen II ed@macktracks.com - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of michael_niemotka@baxter.com Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 9:25 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] CSTR Does anyone know what is going on with this stock? Got in late to the office today and it is down 18%!!! I know we are supposed to sell at 7-8%, but now do I sell anyway, or wait it out to see if the day may turn a bit? Thanks Mike Niemotka , PE Sr. Principal Engineer Baxter Healthcare Corporation Route 120 & Wilson Road Round Lake, IL 60073 Tel (847) 270-4075 Fax (847) 270-4525 michael_niemotka@baxter.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 27 Aug 2002 09:49:17 -0600 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR Maybe that the handle formed part way up the right side of the cup was a warning sign? I'm assuming you would have bought a breakout at that level. When this was originally mentioned here, I looked at it and thought it was such an odd little niche business that it probably had limited growth potential. (doesn't mean it could not have moved on up a bit) On 27 Aug 2002 at 10:22, michael_niemotka@baxter.com wrote: > their famous 20-20 hindsight to show why it was destined to fall. Does > anyone else see anything in the price volume action that would lead them to > believe that this was going to happen, or is it the M that is still not > strong enough? - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 27 Aug 2002 10:50:41 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR Hi Mike, Technically, this chart is about as good as it gets in a market like this--A handle 8/1 to 8/14, breakout 8/15 on volume, an orderly pullback to the pivot since then. I'd be hard pressed to fault the technicals unless you want to argue the somewhat light volume on the right side of the cup, which I won't, because it's insignificant in my mind. There are a couple of things that kept me away from CSTR---high debt load (though they've been restructuring debt recently, so they stay in my sights in the meantime) and low ROE of 5% (primarily because they only turned EPS positive in the last 4 quarters). Given the market is on shaky ground, I'd rather sit back and watch the behavior of the stock than to dive in....preferring to stalk the trade on other stocks which are fundamentally stronger, but not yet finished with their bases. I also like to sit back and watch most of the early stocks out of the gate after a follow-through and see how they're acting, CSTR included. I've often scratched my head at the business model.....seemed crazy that you would *pay* to count your change and be happy to receive some crisp dollar bills and a few store coupons for the "privilege." But I understand they're appealing to a part of the population that is primarily cash-based and not to those of us who've forgotten what it looks like and instead use our ATM card for everything. Recently, however, I've had a greater appreciation for their "service" as my bank has stopped waiving their coin counting fees after doing so for, well, forever.... We've always kept a "change can" and dumped our change each day. When it's full, it's about $200....I'd make my ritual trek to the bank to have them count it out, then that evening we would go out for a pricey dinner, something we rarely do. Now that they're charging, however, the CSTR kiosks become an alternative. Personally, I'm too cheap to pay *anybody* to count my money for me, so I won't be using the bank *or* CSTR...but I'll bet you there are many folks who would consider it. The blurb I saw on the OffWallStreet report mentioned something about "saturation." Though I haven't seen the report and know nothing more than this, I have only one thought when I hear something like that in the same breath as CSTR----Starbucks. Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 10:22 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR | | I appreciate all the advice that I have gotten. It is when stuff like this | happens that makes me question a trading "method". I'm sure if CSTR stays | down, it will only be a matter of time before I see and IBD write up using | their famous 20-20 hindsight to show why it was destined to fall. Does | anyone else see anything in the price volume action that would lead them to | believe that this was going to happen, or is it the M that is still not | strong enough? | | Okay, now I feel a bit better after venting. Thank you all! | | | Mike Niemotka , PE | Sr. Principal Engineer | Baxter Healthcare Corporation | Route 120 & Wilson Road | Round Lake, IL 60073 | Tel (847) 270-4075 | Fax (847) 270-4525 | michael_niemotka@baxter.com | | | | "Edward W. Gjertsen | II" To: canslim@lists.xmission.com | cc: | Sent by: Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR | owner-canslim@lists.xm | ission.com | | | 08/27/2002 10:09 AM | Please respond to | canslim | | | | | | | Dear Mike | | CSTR was a favorite of many Canslimers - with the problems we faced with | buying CVH recently (too many chasing too few) we are seeing similar | results, which unfortunately are on the downside. You mentioned that | you got into the office late. Remember - there are people who do this | for a living with millions at stake. A slight smell of weakness and | they may sell some of their position to take some risk off the table - | selling begets selling and before you know it CSTR is down over 20%. We | have been in this situation several times before - and sold quickly - | and yes much to our chagrin - some stocks came roaring back - but in | other cases the stock kept declining. Throw out your ego - sell - and | if CSTR sets up again look at buying it. I don't want to get too deep | into wash sale rules, but you can't take and loss on CSTR if you buy it | back within 30 days. Good luck | | Ed Gjertsen II | ed@macktracks.com | | -----Original Message----- | From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com | [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of | michael_niemotka@baxter.com | Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 9:25 AM | To: canslim@lists.xmission.com | Subject: [CANSLIM] CSTR | | Does anyone know what is going on with this stock? Got in late to the | office today and it is down 18%!!! | | I know we are supposed to sell at 7-8%, but now do I sell anyway, or | wait | it out to see if the day may turn a bit? | | Thanks | | Mike Niemotka , PE | Sr. Principal Engineer | Baxter Healthcare Corporation | Route 120 & Wilson Road | Round Lake, IL 60073 | Tel (847) 270-4075 | Fax (847) 270-4525 | michael_niemotka@baxter.com | | | | - | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. | | | - | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. | | | | | | | | - | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 27 Aug 2002 10:56:48 -0500 From: michael_niemotka@baxter.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR Ed, Thank you for that insight. I will start doing the same type of analysis with my chart readings. Mike Mike Niemotka , PE Sr. Principal Engineer Baxter Healthcare Corporation Route 120 & Wilson Road Round Lake, IL 60073 Tel (847) 270-4075 Fax (847) 270-4525 michael_niemotka@baxter.com "Edward W. Gjertsen II" To: canslim@lists.xmission.com cc: Sent by: Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR owner-canslim@lists.xm ission.com 08/27/2002 10:45 AM Please respond to canslim Michael, With the PE on CSTR in the mid 70's, there is risk. Even though WON doesn't really pay attention to PE, many do. Second, this is not the first time CSTR has fallen so quickly. One additional analysis we perform is to review charts form mini implosions. There have been many stocks we have passed over due to a volatile trading history. Stocks that have recent (6 months) daily ranges of greater than 10% carry additional risks for Canslimers. Ed Gjertsen II ed@macktracks.com - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of michael_niemotka@baxter.com Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 10:22 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR I appreciate all the advice that I have gotten. It is when stuff like this happens that makes me question a trading "method". I'm sure if CSTR stays down, it will only be a matter of time before I see and IBD write up using their famous 20-20 hindsight to show why it was destined to fall. Does anyone else see anything in the price volume action that would lead them to believe that this was going to happen, or is it the M that is still not strong enough? Okay, now I feel a bit better after venting. Thank you all! Mike Niemotka , PE Sr. Principal Engineer Baxter Healthcare Corporation Route 120 & Wilson Road Round Lake, IL 60073 Tel (847) 270-4075 Fax (847) 270-4525 michael_niemotka@baxter.com "Edward W. Gjertsen II" To: canslim@lists.xmission.com cc: Sent by: Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR owner-canslim@lists.xm ission.com 08/27/2002 10:09 AM Please respond to canslim Dear Mike CSTR was a favorite of many Canslimers - with the problems we faced with buying CVH recently (too many chasing too few) we are seeing similar results, which unfortunately are on the downside. You mentioned that you got into the office late. Remember - there are people who do this for a living with millions at stake. A slight smell of weakness and they may sell some of their position to take some risk off the table - selling begets selling and before you know it CSTR is down over 20%. We have been in this situation several times before - and sold quickly - and yes much to our chagrin - some stocks came roaring back - but in other cases the stock kept declining. Throw out your ego - sell - and if CSTR sets up again look at buying it. I don't want to get too deep into wash sale rules, but you can't take and loss on CSTR if you buy it back within 30 days. Good luck Ed Gjertsen II ed@macktracks.com - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of michael_niemotka@baxter.com Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 9:25 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] CSTR Does anyone know what is going on with this stock? Got in late to the office today and it is down 18%!!! I know we are supposed to sell at 7-8%, but now do I sell anyway, or wait it out to see if the day may turn a bit? Thanks Mike Niemotka , PE Sr. Principal Engineer Baxter Healthcare Corporation Route 120 & Wilson Road Round Lake, IL 60073 Tel (847) 270-4075 Fax (847) 270-4525 michael_niemotka@baxter.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 27 Aug 2002 10:54:19 -0500 From: "Norman" Subject: Re: Volatility (was [CANSLIM] CSTR) Ed, Is this "daily range" analysis the same as ATR (avg true range) analysis? Before someone says this OT, it goes to the volatility that WON talks about so often. Norm - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Edward W. Gjertsen II" To: Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 10:45 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR > Michael, > > With the PE on CSTR in the mid 70's, there is risk. Even though WON > doesn't really pay attention to PE, many do. Second, this is not the > first time CSTR has fallen so quickly. One additional analysis we > perform is to review charts form mini implosions. There have been many > stocks we have passed over due to a volatile trading history. Stocks > that have recent (6 months) daily ranges of greater than 10% carry > additional risks for Canslimers. > > Ed Gjertsen II > ed@macktracks.com > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of > michael_niemotka@baxter.com > Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 10:22 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR > > > I appreciate all the advice that I have gotten. It is when stuff like > this > happens that makes me question a trading "method". I'm sure if CSTR > stays > down, it will only be a matter of time before I see and IBD write up > using > their famous 20-20 hindsight to show why it was destined to fall. Does > anyone else see anything in the price volume action that would lead them > to > believe that this was going to happen, or is it the M that is still not > strong enough? > > Okay, now I feel a bit better after venting. Thank you all! > > > Mike Niemotka , PE > Sr. Principal Engineer > Baxter Healthcare Corporation > Route 120 & Wilson Road > Round Lake, IL 60073 > Tel (847) 270-4075 > Fax (847) 270-4525 > michael_niemotka@baxter.com > > > > > "Edward W. Gjertsen > > II" To: > canslim@lists.xmission.com > cc: > > Sent by: Subject: RE: > [CANSLIM] CSTR > owner-canslim@lists.xm > > ission.com > > > > > > 08/27/2002 10:09 AM > > Please respond to > > canslim > > > > > > > > > > Dear Mike > > CSTR was a favorite of many Canslimers - with the problems we faced with > buying CVH recently (too many chasing too few) we are seeing similar > results, which unfortunately are on the downside. You mentioned that > you got into the office late. Remember - there are people who do this > for a living with millions at stake. A slight smell of weakness and > they may sell some of their position to take some risk off the table - > selling begets selling and before you know it CSTR is down over 20%. We > have been in this situation several times before - and sold quickly - > and yes much to our chagrin - some stocks came roaring back - but in > other cases the stock kept declining. Throw out your ego - sell - and > if CSTR sets up again look at buying it. I don't want to get too deep > into wash sale rules, but you can't take and loss on CSTR if you buy it > back within 30 days. Good luck > > Ed Gjertsen II > ed@macktracks.com > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of > michael_niemotka@baxter.com > Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 9:25 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] CSTR > > Does anyone know what is going on with this stock? Got in late to the > office today and it is down 18%!!! > > I know we are supposed to sell at 7-8%, but now do I sell anyway, or > wait > it out to see if the day may turn a bit? > > Thanks > > Mike Niemotka , PE > Sr. Principal Engineer > Baxter Healthcare Corporation > Route 120 & Wilson Road > Round Lake, IL 60073 > Tel (847) 270-4075 > Fax (847) 270-4525 > michael_niemotka@baxter.com > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > > > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 27 Aug 2002 11:02:29 -0500 From: michael_niemotka@baxter.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR Katherine, Thanks for the analysis. It does make me feel a little better knowing that no one else saw it coming. And I hope you will drop the list an e-mail to let us know how the waiter at the pricey restaurant reacts when you pay for your dinner in coins! Mike Mike Niemotka , PE Sr. Principal Engineer Baxter Healthcare Corporation Route 120 & Wilson Road Round Lake, IL 60073 Tel (847) 270-4075 Fax (847) 270-4525 michael_niemotka@baxter.com "Katherine Malm" To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent by: cc: owner-canslim@lists.xm Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR ission.com 08/27/2002 10:50 AM Please respond to canslim Hi Mike, Technically, this chart is about as good as it gets in a market like this--A handle 8/1 to 8/14, breakout 8/15 on volume, an orderly pullback to the pivot since then. I'd be hard pressed to fault the technicals unless you want to argue the somewhat light volume on the right side of the cup, which I won't, because it's insignificant in my mind. There are a couple of things that kept me away from CSTR---high debt load (though they've been restructuring debt recently, so they stay in my sights in the meantime) and low ROE of 5% (primarily because they only turned EPS positive in the last 4 quarters). Given the market is on shaky ground, I'd rather sit back and watch the behavior of the stock than to dive in....preferring to stalk the trade on other stocks which are fundamentally stronger, but not yet finished with their bases. I also like to sit back and watch most of the early stocks out of the gate after a follow-through and see how they're acting, CSTR included. I've often scratched my head at the business model.....seemed crazy that you would *pay* to count your change and be happy to receive some crisp dollar bills and a few store coupons for the "privilege." But I understand they're appealing to a part of the population that is primarily cash-based and not to those of us who've forgotten what it looks like and instead use our ATM card for everything. Recently, however, I've had a greater appreciation for their "service" as my bank has stopped waiving their coin counting fees after doing so for, well, forever.... We've always kept a "change can" and dumped our change each day. When it's full, it's about $200....I'd make my ritual trek to the bank to have them count it out, then that evening we would go out for a pricey dinner, something we rarely do. Now that they're charging, however, the CSTR kiosks become an alternative. Personally, I'm too cheap to pay *anybody* to count my money for me, so I won't be using the bank *or* CSTR...but I'll bet you there are many folks who would consider it. The blurb I saw on the OffWallStreet report mentioned something about "saturation." Though I haven't seen the report and know nothing more than this, I have only one thought when I hear something like that in the same breath as CSTR----Starbucks. Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 10:22 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR | | I appreciate all the advice that I have gotten. It is when stuff like this | happens that makes me question a trading "method". I'm sure if CSTR stays | down, it will only be a matter of time before I see and IBD write up using | their famous 20-20 hindsight to show why it was destined to fall. Does | anyone else see anything in the price volume action that would lead them to | believe that this was going to happen, or is it the M that is still not | strong enough? | | Okay, now I feel a bit better after venting. Thank you all! | | | Mike Niemotka , PE | Sr. Principal Engineer | Baxter Healthcare Corporation | Route 120 & Wilson Road | Round Lake, IL 60073 | Tel (847) 270-4075 | Fax (847) 270-4525 | michael_niemotka@baxter.com | | | | "Edward W. Gjertsen | II" To: canslim@lists.xmission.com | cc: | Sent by: Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR | owner-canslim@lists.xm | ission.com | | | 08/27/2002 10:09 AM | Please respond to | canslim | | | | | | | Dear Mike | | CSTR was a favorite of many Canslimers - with the problems we faced with | buying CVH recently (too many chasing too few) we are seeing similar | results, which unfortunately are on the downside. You mentioned that | you got into the office late. Remember - there are people who do this | for a living with millions at stake. A slight smell of weakness and | they may sell some of their position to take some risk off the table - | selling begets selling and before you know it CSTR is down over 20%. We | have been in this situation several times before - and sold quickly - | and yes much to our chagrin - some stocks came roaring back - but in | other cases the stock kept declining. Throw out your ego - sell - and | if CSTR sets up again look at buying it. I don't want to get too deep | into wash sale rules, but you can't take and loss on CSTR if you buy it | back within 30 days. Good luck | | Ed Gjertsen II | ed@macktracks.com | | -----Original Message----- | From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com | [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of | michael_niemotka@baxter.com | Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 9:25 AM | To: canslim@lists.xmission.com | Subject: [CANSLIM] CSTR | | Does anyone know what is going on with this stock? Got in late to the | office today and it is down 18%!!! | | I know we are supposed to sell at 7-8%, but now do I sell anyway, or | wait | it out to see if the day may turn a bit? | | Thanks | | Mike Niemotka , PE | Sr. Principal Engineer | Baxter Healthcare Corporation | Route 120 & Wilson Road | Round Lake, IL 60073 | Tel (847) 270-4075 | Fax (847) 270-4525 | michael_niemotka@baxter.com | | | | - | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. | | | - | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. | | | | | | | | - | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 27 Aug 2002 10:06:34 -0600 From: "David Taggart" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR I have a bunch of coin rolls located on my dresser and just fill them up as I go (except for the pennies which go in a bucket in my closet) Once a roll is filled I then use it to buy gas. The gas station people never seem to mind getting a $10 quarter roll or a $2 nickel roll. It works for me because like you I will never haul my change to the store only to be charged for it. Happy Trading, David Taggart - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 9:51 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CSTR Hi Mike, Technically, this chart is about as good as it gets in a market like this--A handle 8/1 to 8/14, breakout 8/15 on volume, an orderly pullback to the pivot since then. I'd be hard pressed to fault the technicals unless you want to argue the somewhat light volume on the right side of the cup, which I won't, because it's insignificant in my mind. There are a couple of things that kept me away from CSTR---high debt load (though they've been restructuring debt recently, so they stay in my sights in the meantime) and low ROE of 5% (primarily because they only turned EPS positive in the last 4 quarters). Given the market is on shaky ground, I'd rather sit back and watch the behavior of the stock than to dive in....preferring to stalk the trade on other stocks which are fundamentally stronger, but not yet finished with their bases. I also like to sit back and watch most of the early stocks out of the gate after a follow-through and see how they're acting, CSTR included. I've often scratched my head at the business model.....seemed crazy that you would *pay* to count your change and be happy to receive some crisp dollar bills and a few store coupons for the "privilege." But I understand they're appealing to a part of the population that is primarily cash-based and not to those of us who've forgotten what it looks like and instead use our ATM card for everything. Recently, however, I've had a greater appreciation for their "service" as my bank has stopped waiving their coin counting fees after doing so for, well, forever.... We've always kept a "change can" and dumped our change each day. When it's full, it's about $200....I'd make my ritual trek to the bank to have them count it out, then that evening we would go out for a pricey dinner, something we rarely do. Now that they're charging, however, the CSTR kiosks become an alternative. Personally, I'm too cheap to pay *anybody* to count my money for me, so I won't be using the bank *or* CSTR...but I'll bet you there are many folks who would consider it. The blurb I saw on the OffWallStreet report mentioned something about "saturation." Though I haven't seen the report and know nothing more than this, I have only one thought when I hear something like that in the same breath as CSTR----Starbucks. Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 10:22 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR | | I appreciate all the advice that I have gotten. It is when stuff like this | happens that makes me question a trading "method". I'm sure if CSTR stays | down, it will only be a matter of time before I see and IBD write up using | their famous 20-20 hindsight to show why it was destined to fall. Does | anyone else see anything in the price volume action that would lead them to | believe that this was going to happen, or is it the M that is still not | strong enough? | | Okay, now I feel a bit better after venting. Thank you all! | | | Mike Niemotka , PE | Sr. Principal Engineer | Baxter Healthcare Corporation | Route 120 & Wilson Road | Round Lake, IL 60073 | Tel (847) 270-4075 | Fax (847) 270-4525 | michael_niemotka@baxter.com | | | | "Edward W. Gjertsen | II" To: canslim@lists.xmission.com | cc: | Sent by: Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] CSTR | owner-canslim@lists.xm | ission.com | | | 08/27/2002 10:09 AM | Please respond to | canslim | | | | | | | Dear Mike | | CSTR was a favorite of many Canslimers - with the problems we faced with | buying CVH recently (too many chasing too few) we are seeing similar | results, which unfortunately are on the downside. You mentioned that | you got into the office late. Remember - there are people who do this | for a living with millions at stake. A slight smell of weakness and | they may sell some of their position to take some risk off the table - | selling begets selling and before you know it CSTR is down over 20%. We | have been in this situation several times before - and sold quickly - | and yes much to our chagrin - some stocks came roaring back - but in | other cases the stock kept declining. Throw out your ego - sell - and | if CSTR sets up again look at buying it. I don't want to get too deep | into wash sale rules, but you can't take and loss on CSTR if you buy it | back within 30 days. Good luck | | Ed Gjertsen II | ed@macktracks.com | | -----Original Message----- | From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com | [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of | michael_niemotka@baxter.com | Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 9:25 AM | To: canslim@lists.xmission.com | Subject: [CANSLIM] CSTR | | Does anyone know what is going on with this stock? Got in late to the | office today and it is down 18%!!! | | I know we are supposed to sell at 7-8%, but now do I sell anyway, or | wait | it out to see if the day may turn a bit? | | Thanks | | Mike Niemotka , PE | Sr. Principal Engineer | Baxter Healthcare Corporation | Route 120 & Wilson Road | Round Lake, IL 60073 | Tel (847) 270-4075 | Fax (847) 270-4525 | michael_niemotka@baxter.com | | | | - | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. | | | - | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. | | | | | | | | - | -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" | -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or | -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #2867 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.