From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #2966 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Saturday, October 5 2002 Volume 02 : Number 2966 In this issue: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 13:32:45 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00D1_01C26C73.B094B610 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_00D2_01C26C73.B094B610" - ------=_NextPart_001_00D2_01C26C73.B094B610 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable JAPAN Busy week for Japanese banks, as the Cabinet reshuffling leaves them = with a Finance Minister perceived as much more of a hard liner towards = cleaning up the endemic problems of Japanese banking system. Indications = are that he will accelerate the write off of bad loans, but unclear if = he will make them follow more legitimate standards of recognizing what = is a "bad loan" or in default. If so, likely to put a lot of banks, many = small ones but likely some of the big ones as well, under capital = requirements. Also likely to force a greater number of businesses into = bankruptcy, with consequent layoffs. Also unclear what, if anything, may = be done about the cultural problems that put the banks in trouble, both = with risk assessment, early recognition of a troubled loan, and the = practice of buying stock from a company you just loaned money to. So = far, doesn't look like they want to correct the structural problems, = rather appear to be looking to inject public (e.g. taxpayer) money into = the banks by buying back non-performing loans, or by buying part of = their stock portfolio (above the market, no less). That won't fix the = problem other than temporarily, and with the difficulty in selling last = month's issue of govt bonds, may spell further trouble for a country = already with one of the highest deficit spending and nat'l debt levels = in the world. The weak US dollar, and the seaport closure on the West = Coast, will also continue to hurt the Japanese export based economy. The = "Iraqi War Premium", estimated at $8/barrel of crude oil, will also hurt = their economy. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- UNEMPLOYMENT The rate of job cuts appears to be declining, only 70,057 cuts announced = in September compared to August's 118,067, and down 72% from Sept 2001. = Unfortunately, this still far exceeds the number of new jobs being = created, as well as the numbers recorded during the last recovery from = recession in 1990-91. But at least Labor Dept wants us to believe that = overall unemployment declined from 5.7% to 5.6% despite this being a = result of poor methodology of measuring this factor, and only reflects = the ever increasing number of discouraged unemployed people simply = dropping out of the labor pool and not looking for a job. In the same = report Labor admits that instead of new jobs being created, a total of = 43,000 were eliminated. Jobs creation in August was revised upward to = 107K. In the past week, both the ISM's manufacturing index (which = declined) and the ISM's service index (which grew over expectations) = showed that the loss of jobs in Sept was accelerating. New unemployment claims rose 5,000 to 417K, remaining over 400K for the = sixth straight week. The 4 week moving average rose to 423,000 which was = the highest it has been in over 4 months. Continuing unemployment claims = reached 3.68 million, highest since June. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" Ugly, depressing, no end in sight, VIX high, even I can't be persuaded = to buy anything (now THAT's bearish). Lots of cuts in forecasts, and = warnings of shortfalls in Q3 results, and from major companies. And I = cannot even vocalize a single reason why I would expect things to start = getting any better this year. Even without the closure of the ports on = the West Coast, I have lost faith that Q4 results will show any = significant improvement. Consumer spending definitely looks to me to be = weakening, and manufacturing spending is not increasing to pick up the = slack. Retailers are heading for one of their worst Christmas shopping = seasons, and the port closure may accelerate this. The Feds, thanks to = Labor's bogus unemployment report, are now expected to wait until the = Nov 6 meeting of FOMC to cut rates. But 11 cuts last year didn't make = this a good economic year, and any further cuts now are likely to have = even less of an impact. And with the rate already at a 41 year record = low, there is not enough left for 11 more cuts, unless they do it 10 BP = at a time. And all the major indexes were down for the week, something = like six weeks in a row now, I think. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ECONOMICS Consumer spending gained 0.3% in August, down from the 1% gain of July, = while income gained 0.4% after being unchanged in July. Both had been = expected to increase 0.5%. This data was further confirmed by chain = store sales, down 0.8%, for the week ending 9/28, after dropping 1.7% = the prior week. For the 4 week period ending 9/28, their sales were down = 0.7% from the prior month. New construction spending for August fell 0.4%, a new six year low. The = biggest drop came in nonresidential construction. A decline of 0.2% had = been expected. It also declined in July (0.1%). ISM reported Tuesday that manufacturing activity fell to 49.5% in Sept, = down a full percent and well under expectations of a gain to 51%. First = time in eight months that it declined, and also goes into the = "contraction" side of the measure from expansion. This also confirmed = the early indication of a decline shown by the Chicago Purchasing = Managers index. While the new orders index gained to 50.2% from 49.7%, = the employment index dropped to 44.9% from 45.8%. TV ad sales are booming for the fall season with prices up 25 to 40% = more than in May. Networks are even able to demand that advertisers buy = time on the lower rated shows if they want to get time on the most = popular prime time shows. Leading advertisers are automakers, phone = companies and movie studios. How long until the print media can report = the same success? Factory orders were unchanged in August compared to expectations of a = 0.5% drop, and after an upwardly revised July figure of plus 4.4%. = Without transportation orders (and I note that more recently one major = airplane maker, Boeing??, cut its forecasts citing reduced prices due = lower demand), the factory orders declined 0.1%. Machinery orders also = dropped 2.3%, computer and electronics orders dropped 0.3%. Wonder what = September report will look like?? ISM reports that September service sector growth jumped a full 3 = percentage points to 53.9%, eighth straight month of growth, and well = over expectations of a gain to 51.4%. As mentioned above, the rate of = layoffs accelerated with the employment factor down to 46.6% from 47.3%, = the 19th straight month of job losses. Interesting that Alaska, which is about 67% dependent on supplies coming = in by ship, was able to get its ports reopened because they have no rail = line, and only one highway. Hawaii, 90% dependent on ship delivered = supplies, is still closed down. Also interesting that in all ports, oil = delivery remains unaffected. Even tho I dislike the longshoremen = fighting the advance of technology (altho downloading data from one = computer to another instead of "clerks" reentering it by hand is hardly = "technology"), there might have been a chance of sympathy from me until = I saw their average wages. Even working only 40 weeks, they average over = $80K a year. About half work a full year, and average $106K. And these = "clerks" that today do all this manual reentry of data, they make around = $118K. Can I become a clerk?? Pleeezzzeeee??? Bet they don't take their = work home at night and weekends, and work for free. Already, some = companies are shutting down production (United Motor Manufacturing, = largest car assembler on the West Coast, a GM/Toyota operation), and = various groups are pressuring the President to invoke the cooling off = provisions of Taft Hartley Act, which would get 80 days of open ports. = Of course, last time Taft Hartley was used, everything shut right down = again after the cooling off period ended. And the last time the ports = were closed like this, it lasted 7 months, so the damage both to the US = economy, as well as to Asian economies, especially our major trading = (one way) partner of Japan, could be dramatic if this lockout continues = indefinitely. OECD reports that global economic growth is again slowing. Deutsche Bank = cut its forecast for growth in Germany from 0.5% to only 0.1%. OECD cut = growth in the USA by 0.5% and 0.3% overall for the eurozone. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend is discouragingly = small, but at least it will not take much time. AG - interesting chart, maybe the best cup we can expect in today's "M", = strong forecast . . . . Happy Hunting, (just kidding, look below the signature block, thought = you could use a smile after all the depressing and opinionated stuff = above) Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley Here's a few more ideas: AMGP - c&h ANSI - c&h AZO - c&h BLUD - nice consolidation on a LLUR CCCG - b/o, at the pivot? CCE - b/o Wednesday, good volume, holding price so far CENT - nice cup, can it last? CPG - B7 CVBF - c&h DL - c&h ERES - LLUR FCN - LLUR HET - saucer JCOM - rough B4 MBFI - B7 PDCO - c&h PENN - c&h PETM - nice c&h on an old LLUR PORT - B10 UHS - cup - ------=_NextPart_001_00D2_01C26C73.B094B610 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
JAPAN
Busy week for Japanese banks, as the Cabinet = reshuffling=20 leaves them with a Finance Minister perceived as much more of a hard = liner=20 towards cleaning up the endemic problems of Japanese banking system. = Indications=20 are that he will accelerate the write off of bad loans, but unclear if = he will=20 make them follow more legitimate standards of recognizing what is a "bad = loan"=20 or in default. If so, likely to put a lot of banks, many small ones but = likely=20 some of the big ones as well, under capital requirements. Also likely to = force a=20 greater number of businesses into bankruptcy, with consequent layoffs. = Also=20 unclear what, if anything, may be done about the cultural problems that = put the=20 banks in trouble, both with risk assessment, early recognition of a = troubled=20 loan, and the practice of buying stock from a company you just loaned = money=20 to.  So far, doesn't look like they want to correct the structural=20 problems, rather appear to be looking to inject public (e.g. taxpayer) = money=20 into the banks by buying back non-performing loans, or by buying part of = their=20 stock portfolio (above the market, no less). That won't fix the problem = other=20 than temporarily, and with the difficulty in selling last month's issue = of govt=20 bonds, may spell further trouble for a country already with one of the = highest=20 deficit spending and nat'l debt levels in the world. The weak US dollar, = and the=20 seaport closure on the West Coast, will also continue to hurt the = Japanese=20 export based economy. The "Iraqi War Premium", estimated at $8/barrel of = crude=20 oil, will also hurt their economy.
UNEMPLOYMENT
The rate of job cuts appears to be declining, = only 70,057=20 cuts announced in September compared to August's 118,067, and down 72% = from Sept=20 2001. Unfortunately, this still far exceeds the number of new jobs being = created, as well as the numbers recorded during the last recovery from = recession=20 in 1990-91. But at least Labor Dept wants us to believe that overall=20 unemployment declined from 5.7% to 5.6% despite this being a result of = poor=20 methodology of measuring this factor, and only reflects the ever = increasing=20 number of discouraged unemployed people simply dropping out of the labor = pool=20 and not looking for a job. In the same report Labor admits that = instead of=20 new jobs being created, a total of 43,000 were eliminated. Jobs creation = in=20 August was revised upward to 107K.  In the past week, both the = ISM's=20 manufacturing index (which declined) and the ISM's service index (which = grew=20 over expectations) showed that the loss of jobs in Sept was=20 accelerating.
 
New unemployment claims rose 5,000 to 417K, = remaining over=20 400K for the sixth straight week. The 4 week moving average rose to = 423,000=20 which was the highest it has been in over 4 months. Continuing = unemployment=20 claims reached 3.68 million, highest since June.
"M"
Ugly, depressing, no end in sight, VIX high, = even I can't=20 be persuaded to buy anything (now THAT's bearish). Lots of cuts in = forecasts,=20 and warnings of shortfalls in Q3 results, and from major companies. And = I cannot=20 even vocalize a single reason why I would expect things to start getting = any=20 better this year. Even without the closure of the ports on the West = Coast, I=20 have lost faith that Q4 results will show any significant improvement. = Consumer=20 spending definitely looks to me to be weakening, and manufacturing = spending is=20 not increasing to pick up the slack. Retailers are heading for one of = their=20 worst Christmas shopping seasons, and the port closure may accelerate = this. The=20 Feds, thanks to Labor's bogus unemployment report, are now expected to = wait=20 until the Nov 6 meeting of FOMC to cut rates. But 11 cuts last year = didn't make=20 this a good economic year, and any further cuts now are likely to have = even less=20 of an impact. And with the rate already at a 41 year record low, there = is not=20 enough left for 11 more cuts, unless they do it 10 BP at a time. And all = the=20 major indexes were down for the week, something like six weeks in a row = now, I=20 think.
ECONOMICS
Consumer spending gained 0.3% in August, down = from the 1%=20 gain of July, while income gained 0.4% after being unchanged in July. = Both had=20 been expected to increase 0.5%. This data was further confirmed by chain = store=20 sales, down 0.8%, for the week ending 9/28, after dropping 1.7% the = prior week.=20 For the 4 week period ending 9/28, their sales were down 0.7% from the = prior=20 month.
 
New construction spending for August fell 0.4%, = a new six=20 year low. The biggest drop came in nonresidential construction. A = decline of=20 0.2% had been expected. It also declined in July (0.1%).
 
ISM reported Tuesday that manufacturing activity = fell to=20 49.5% in Sept, down a full percent and well under expectations of a gain = to 51%.=20 First time in eight months that it declined, and also goes into the=20 "contraction" side of the measure from expansion. This also confirmed = the early=20 indication of a decline shown by the Chicago Purchasing=20 Managers index. While the new orders index gained to 50.2% from = 49.7%, the=20 employment index dropped to 44.9% from 45.8%.
 
TV ad sales are booming for the fall season with = prices up=20 25 to 40% more than in May. Networks are even able to demand that = advertisers=20 buy time on the lower rated shows if they want to get time on the most = popular=20 prime time shows. Leading advertisers are automakers, phone companies = and movie=20 studios. How long until the print media can report the same=20 success?
 
Factory orders were unchanged in August compared = to=20 expectations of a 0.5% drop, and after an upwardly revised July figure = of plus=20 4.4%. Without transportation orders (and I note that more recently one = major=20 airplane maker, Boeing??, cut its forecasts citing reduced prices due = lower=20 demand), the factory orders declined 0.1%. Machinery orders also dropped = 2.3%,=20 computer and electronics orders dropped 0.3%. Wonder what September = report will=20 look like??
 
ISM reports that September service sector growth = jumped a=20 full 3 percentage points to 53.9%, eighth straight month of growth, and = well=20 over expectations of a gain to 51.4%. As mentioned above, the rate of = layoffs=20 accelerated with the employment factor down to 46.6% from 47.3%, the = 19th=20 straight month of job losses.
 
Interesting that Alaska, which is about 67% = dependent on=20 supplies coming in by ship, was able to get its ports reopened because = they have=20 no rail line, and only one highway. Hawaii, 90% dependent on ship = delivered=20 supplies, is still closed down. Also interesting that in all ports, oil = delivery=20 remains unaffected. Even tho I dislike the longshoremen fighting the = advance of=20 technology (altho downloading data from one computer to another instead = of=20 "clerks" reentering it by hand is hardly "technology"), there might have = been a=20 chance of sympathy from me until I saw their average wages. Even working = only 40=20 weeks, they average over $80K a year. About half work a full year, and = average=20 $106K. And these "clerks" that today do all this manual reentry of data, = they=20 make around $118K. Can I become a clerk?? Pleeezzzeeee??? Bet they don't = take=20 their work home at night and weekends, and work for free. Already, some=20 companies are shutting down production (United Motor Manufacturing, = largest car=20 assembler on the West Coast, a GM/Toyota operation), and various groups = are=20 pressuring the President to invoke the cooling off provisions of Taft = Hartley=20 Act, which would get 80 days of open ports. Of course, last time Taft = Hartley=20 was used, everything shut right down again after the cooling off period = ended.=20 And the last time the ports were closed like this, it lasted 7 months, = so the=20 damage both to the US economy, as well as to Asian economies, especially = our=20 major trading (one way) partner of Japan, could be dramatic if this = lockout=20 continues indefinitely.
 
OECD reports that global economic growth is = again slowing.=20 Deutsche Bank cut its forecast for growth in Germany from 0.5% to only = 0.1%.=20 OECD cut growth in the USA by 0.5% and 0.3% overall for the=20 eurozone.
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES
This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.
 
I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest.
 
The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend is=20 discouragingly small, but at least it will not take much = time.
 
AG - interesting chart, maybe the best cup we can expect in = today's=20 "M", strong forecast
.
.
.
.
Happy Hunting, (just kidding, look below the signature block, = thought you=20 could use a smile after all the depressing and opinionated stuff=20 above)
 
3D""
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: = TexWorley
 
Here's a few more ideas:
 
AMGP - c&h
ANSI - c&h
AZO - c&h
BLUD - nice consolidation on a LLUR
CCCG - b/o, at the pivot?
CCE - b/o Wednesday, good volume, holding price = so=20 far
CENT - nice cup, can it last?
CPG - B7
CVBF - c&h
DL - c&h
ERES - LLUR
FCN - LLUR
HET - saucer
JCOM - rough B4
MBFI - B7
PDCO - c&h
PENN - c&h
PETM - nice c&h on an old LLUR
PORT - B10
UHS - cup
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