From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3362 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, June 6 2003 Volume 02 : Number 3362 In this issue: [CANSLIM] Way off topic but key given our format of exchanging information RE: [CANSLIM] VRNT Re: [CANSLIM] VRNT [CANSLIM] Sell Yahoo? RE: [CANSLIM] VRNT Re: [CANSLIM] VRNT RE: [CANSLIM] VRNT [CANSLIM] COLM [CANSLIM] Distribution Day Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution Day Re: PEG ratio: was [CANSLIM] VRNT Re: PEG ratio: was [CANSLIM] VRNT Re: [CANSLIM] Sell Yahoo? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 6 Jun 2003 08:47:22 -0500 From: "Edward W. Gjertsen II" Subject: [CANSLIM] Way off topic but key given our format of exchanging information This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00A5_01C32C08.402DA6C0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_00A6_01C32C08.402DA6C0" - ------=_NextPart_001_00A6_01C32C08.402DA6C0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit There is a nefarious virus now hitting emails. Please go to the following, download and run. http://vil.nai.com/vil/stinger/ Good Luck! Ed Gjertsen II ed@macktracks.com Confidentiality Notice: This e-mail message, including any attachments, is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and may contain confidential and privileged information. Any unauthorized review, use, disclosure or distribution is prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender by reply e-mail and destroy all copies of the original message. - ------=_NextPart_001_00A6_01C32C08.402DA6C0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

There is a nefarious virus now = hitting emails.  Please go to the following, download and = run.

 

 

http://vil.nai.com/vil/stinger/<= /a>

 

 

Good Luck!

 

 

Ed Gjertsen II

ed@macktracks.com

 

 

Confidentiality Notice: This = e-mail message, including any attachments, is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and may contain confidential and privileged = information.  Any unauthorized review, use, disclosure or distribution is = prohibited.  If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender by reply = e-mail and destroy all copies of the original message.

 

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Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 6 Jun 2003 09:07:53 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] VRNT Hi Dave, Heaven's no, I'm still a fundamentals junkie. I didn't refer to VRNT specifically in my reply, just to Tomas' question as to whether a B/O on an earnings report was valid. As to other posts I might've made recently, they might have seemed "100% technical" only because folks were asking about the charts, not the stock on the whole. If I haven't done a due diligence myself, I'll rarely spend the time doing that just to answer someone's question on the list, but looking at a chart and marking it up only takes a couple of minutes. You can take a look at a recent post I made on APPX to see what a fundamentals junkie I really am. In it, I gave an extensive analysis of what I'd uncovered in my due diligence last January, including a slew of red flags based on what I'd read in the SEC reports. I don't pay the least attention to broker's analysis or recommendations, so that would have no influence on my own personal decision-making process on a stock. The same would hold true for the PE, though I do look at in in comparison to other stocks within the same industry and to the market as a double check on things. In this case, VRNT is 1.6 times the S&P average. That doesn't necessarily mean that the S&P average is "sane", but that VRNT is in line for what one would expect from a growth stock. As the market is a forward-looking mechanism, the price action does indeed reflect an expectation of future earnings and growth. That, in combination with a track record, shows what one might expect from a stock. In WON's writings, he often talks about stocks in "turnaround" mode and suggests that with as little as 2 quarters of improvement under their belt (along with other requirements), that one could consider a stock a viable candidate. Personally, with a stock like VRNT, public only since May of last year, I see a darn good track record. Add that to their business, which serves a very important and growing market (security), and I'll trust the technicals on this one if they say the stock is forging ahead. That doesn't mean it can't turn on a dime, but for the time being, the chart says full speed ahead. Take a look at the fundamental detail for VRNT and you can see the same numbers that I am looking at: http://www.cwhcharts.com/canslim/ Katherine - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Davellil5@aol.com Sent: Friday, June 06, 2003 7:40 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] VRNT Katherine: Puzzled! Are we now 100% technicians? No more "fundies"? VRNT has had negligible sales and earnings growth over the past 5 years. However, sales in latest quarter was up 22% over same qtr. last yr., and earnings up 75% (to a big 14 cents/sh). Projected EPS gain this year over last year is 30% and another 27% next year (consensus of 6 brokers). So, no history of performance. What basis for believing that the very recent improvement can be maintained, brokers' optimism? If the brokers are so confident, why are they rating VRNT at 2.8, not "Strong Buy"? Trailing PE at 190. Sounds like the market is betting on the come. Is that good enough for CANSLIM these days? Reason for asking is that, in all the email about VRNT (and some other stocks of recent interest), I've seen no reference to "fundies". Regards, Dave - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 6 Jun 2003 10:45:03 EDT From: Davellil5@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] VRNT Thanks, Katherine. My reminder about "fundies" was really for others. I know you're strong on the numbers. Verint is a spinoff by Comverse Tech of their Infosys Division, whose software is applicable to security and intelligence operations, hence in a growing niche of the software business. Comverse owns 80% of Verint. So the float is only 4.6 million shares of the 23 million outstanding. High volatility likely. It's a situation from which great breakouts sometimes arise. LOL to anyone taking a shot at it. Learning experience for all! Dave Vrnt may be a turn-up. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 6 Jun 2003 10:36:09 -0500 From: "Joe McCall" Subject: [CANSLIM] Sell Yahoo? This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_002B_01C32C17.71AA6C10 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I hope you all don't mind me asking your opinion on this, but I can't = think of a better place to go. I am up about 35% on Yahoo. I have never had a stock do this well = before! I think I should keep it for a little while longer until I see = stronger institutional selling, but I am getting nervous. It is MUCH = harder to decide when to sell a stock than when to buy it. Yahoo dropped a little bit after it appeared on the cover of = BusinessWeek, but it is climbing slightly again. Let me list the = reasons why I think I should hold on to it for a little while, and you = can comment on my thoughts if you like. a.. I see only 4 distribution weeks in the last 6 months. =20 b.. The RS line is still rising, although it may have started = flattening out lately. =20 c.. WON recommends drawing a line along the last 2 or 3 peaks on a = weekly chart and sell when a stock crosses it over it. This hasn't = happened yet. =20 d.. I see it in a 2nd stage base. It has not reached a 3rd or 4th = stage base. One negative I can think of: It has had a #1 in IBD industry rankings = for a long time, and it is ranked #5 in their IBD industry. =20 What do you all think? I appreciate your CANSLIM comments. Thanks, Joe McCall - ------=_NextPart_000_002B_01C32C17.71AA6C10 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
I hope you all don't mind me asking = your opinion=20 on this, but I can't think of a better place to go.
 
I am up about 35% on Yahoo.  I = have never had=20 a stock do this well before!  I = think I=20 should keep it for a little while longer until I see stronger = institutional=20 selling, but I am getting nervous.  It is MUCH harder to = decide when=20 to sell a stock than when to buy it.
 
Yahoo dropped a little bit after it = appeared on=20 the cover of BusinessWeek, but it is climbing slightly again.  Let = me list=20 the reasons why I think I should hold on to it for a little while, and = you can=20 comment on my thoughts if you like.
 
  • I see only 4 distribution weeks in = the last 6=20 months. 
  • The RS line is still rising, although = it may have=20 started flattening out lately. 
  • WON recommends drawing a line along = the last 2 or=20 3 peaks on a weekly chart and sell when a stock crosses it over = it.  This=20 hasn't happened yet. 
  • I see it in a 2nd stage base.  = It has not=20 reached a 3rd or 4th stage base.
One negative I can think of: It has had a #1 in IBD industry rankings for a long time, and = it is=20 ranked #5 in their IBD industry. 
 
What do you all think?  I = appreciate your=20 CANSLIM comments.
 
Thanks,
 
Joe McCall
- ------=_NextPart_000_002B_01C32C17.71AA6C10-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 06 Jun 2003 08:51:47 -0700 From: Karen White Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] VRNT Hi... watching VRNT and see its really dropping today and cant figure out why? buying opportunity.?. I had turned off my news source for a brief trip and now cant find anything... ideas? thx, karen At 09:07 AM 6/6/2003 -0500, you wrote: >Hi Dave, > >Heaven's no, I'm still a fundamentals junkie. I didn't refer to VRNT >specifically in my reply, just to Tomas' question as to whether a B/O on an >earnings report was valid. > >As to other posts I might've made recently, they might have seemed "100% >technical" only because folks were asking about the charts, not the stock on >the whole. If I haven't done a due diligence myself, I'll rarely spend the >time doing that just to answer someone's question on the list, but looking >at a chart and marking it up only takes a couple of minutes. You can take a >look at a recent post I made on APPX to see what a fundamentals junkie I >really am. In it, I gave an extensive analysis of what I'd uncovered in my >due diligence last January, including a slew of red flags based on what I'd >read in the SEC reports. > >I don't pay the least attention to broker's analysis or recommendations, so >that would have no influence on my own personal decision-making process on a >stock. The same would hold true for the PE, though I do look at in in >comparison to other stocks within the same industry and to the market as a >double check on things. In this case, VRNT is 1.6 times the S&P average. >That doesn't necessarily mean that the S&P average is "sane", but that VRNT >is in line for what one would expect from a growth stock. > >As the market is a forward-looking mechanism, the price action does indeed >reflect an expectation of future earnings and growth. That, in combination >with a track record, shows what one might expect from a stock. In WON's >writings, he often talks about stocks in "turnaround" mode and suggests that >with as little as 2 quarters of improvement under their belt (along with >other requirements), that one could consider a stock a viable candidate. >Personally, with a stock like VRNT, public only since May of last year, I >see a darn good track record. Add that to their business, which serves a >very important and growing market (security), and I'll trust the technicals >on this one if they say the stock is forging ahead. That doesn't mean it >can't turn on a dime, but for the time being, the chart says full speed >ahead. > >Take a look at the fundamental detail for VRNT and you can see the same >numbers that I am looking at: >http://www.cwhcharts.com/canslim/ > >Katherine > >-----Original Message----- >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Davellil5@aol.com >Sent: Friday, June 06, 2003 7:40 AM >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] VRNT > > >Katherine: > >Puzzled! > >Are we now 100% technicians? No more "fundies"? > >VRNT has had negligible sales and earnings growth over the past 5 years. >However, sales in latest quarter was up 22% over same qtr. last yr., and >earnings >up 75% (to a big 14 cents/sh). > >Projected EPS gain this year over last year is 30% and another 27% next year >(consensus of 6 brokers). > >So, no history of performance. What basis for believing that the very >recent >improvement can be maintained, brokers' optimism? If the brokers are so >confident, why are they rating VRNT at 2.8, not "Strong Buy"? > >Trailing PE at 190. > >Sounds like the market is betting on the come. Is that good enough for >CANSLIM these days? > >Reason for asking is that, in all the email about VRNT (and some other >stocks >of recent interest), I've seen no reference to "fundies". > >Regards, Dave > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > >- >-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" >-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or >-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 6 Jun 2003 13:01:50 EDT From: Davellil5@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] VRNT VRNT down $2.50 on triple normal volume already. Hope I didn't give it the evil eye? Gotta be more careful in these emails. However, it was even lower earlier, and is drifting upward. Still some buyers out there! Maybe coming back. Dave - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 6 Jun 2003 10:06:48 -0700 From: Eddie Garratt Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] VRNT I just bought 500 shares. That should be good enought to drive it down towards the low's of the day. - -----Original Message----- From: Davellil5@aol.com [mailto:Davellil5@aol.com] Sent: Friday, June 06, 2003 10:02 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] VRNT VRNT down $2.50 on triple normal volume already. Hope I didn't give it the evil eye? Gotta be more careful in these emails. However, it was even lower earlier, and is drifting upward. Still some buyers out there! Maybe coming back. Dave - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 6 Jun 2003 12:10:18 -0500 From: michael_niemotka@baxter.com Subject: [CANSLIM] COLM Looks like the wedge may have broken.... Mike Niemotka , PE Sr. Principal Engineer Baxter Healthcare Corporation Route 120 & Wilson Road Round Lake, IL 60073 Tel (847) 270-4075 Fax (847) 270-4525 michael_niemotka@baxter.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 06 Jun 2003 13:18:55 -0400 From: "Pritish Shah" Subject: [CANSLIM] Distribution Day It seems that we are heading for a second distribution day in the past = week. The volume has already crossed 2bill on Nasdaq as of 1pm. A lot of stocks = broke out and simultaneously headed lower. Am I reading it correctly? Regards, Pritish - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 6 Jun 2003 11:41:24 -0600 From: "Rolf Hertenstein" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Distribution Day We'll know in 2 hours and 19 minutes. Rolf - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Pritish Shah" It seems that we are heading for a second distribution day in the past week. The volume has already crossed 2bill on Nasdaq as of 1pm. A lot of stocks broke out and simultaneously headed lower. Am I reading it correctly? Regards, Pritish - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 6 Jun 2003 11:53:52 -0600 From: "Rolf Hertenstein" Subject: Re: PEG ratio: was [CANSLIM] VRNT Just curious if folks here use the PEG ratio at all. I'm sure it's called different things but it's the trailing P/E divided by the projected annual EPS growth rate. And I'm sure whether trailing or forward P/E is used and whether projected growth over 1, 2, 3 years is used varies as well. Of course, the PEG is only as accurate as the EPS estimate. The idea is that a 'fairly valued' stock has a PEG = 1.0, a PEG < 1.0 makes it 'undervalued', while a PEG > 1.0 makes it 'overvalued'. So a P/E of 80 is just fine if annual EPS is growing 80% or more, but the stock with P/E of 80 is risky if the annual EPS growth is, e.g., 40%. This always made sense to me and given two equally good CANSLIM candidates, I've favored the lower PEG stock. WON might cringe at the notion - oh well. I wonder if institutions use this or a similar gauge beyond simple P/E in deciding growth stock buy/sell strategy. Any thoughts? Rolf > I don't pay attention to analysts..... > The same would hold true for the PE, - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 6 Jun 2003 16:27:23 EDT From: Chazmoore@aol.com Subject: Re: PEG ratio: was [CANSLIM] VRNT - --part1_141.131d7336.2c12532b_boundary Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Rolf: I don't pay attention to either P/E or PEG, simply because I don't intend to hold the stock long enough for it to make any difference. Except for unusual circumstance, few CANSLIM stocks stay in play longer than 90 days. You can verify this by looking at the industry rotation among the top 100 industry groups. Charley - --part1_141.131d7336.2c12532b_boundary Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Rolf: I don't pay attenti= on to either P/E or PEG, simply because I don't intend to hold the stock lon= g enough for it to make any difference.
Except for unusual circumstance, few CANSLIM stocks stay in play longer=20= than 90 days. You can verify this by looking at the industry rotation among=20= the top 100 industry groups.=20

Charley - --part1_141.131d7336.2c12532b_boundary-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 06 Jun 2003 14:48:38 -0700 From: Ian Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sell Yahoo? This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - --Boundary_(ID_u/RmThFCmj3WISYYMKiKEw) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Hi Joe: With 4 distribution days in the last 6, and a clear failure to break its old high ($30) today, and the fact that its RS appears to me to be lagging other leaders of this bull (YHOO was at $25 on April 7 - compare that to, HITK, SSYS, MTLG, etc...) I personally would be looking for reasons to sell. In fact, at the open today, $30 looked to me like an excellant risk/reward short entry, with a tight stop at $30.85. JMHO, and you should know that I have been a bit too cautious for most of this 3-month bull. Cheers, Ian ----- Original Message ----- From: Joe McCall To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Friday, June 06, 2003 8:36 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Sell Yahoo? I hope you all don't mind me asking your opinion on this, but I can't think of a better place to go. I am up about 35% on Yahoo. I have never had a stock do this well before! I think I should keep it for a little while longer until I see stronger institutional selling, but I am getting nervous. It is MUCH harder to decide when to sell a stock than when to buy it. Yahoo dropped a little bit after it appeared on the cover of BusinessWeek, but it is climbing slightly again. Let me list the reasons why I think I should hold on to it for a little while, and you can comment on my thoughts if you like. a.. I see only 4 distribution weeks in the last 6 months. b.. The RS line is still rising, although it may have started flattening out lately. c.. WON recommends drawing a line along the last 2 or 3 peaks on a weekly chart and sell when a stock crosses it over it. This hasn't happened yet. d.. I see it in a 2nd stage base. It has not reached a 3rd or 4th stage base. One negative I can think of: It has had a #1 in IBD industry rankings for a long time, and it is ranked #5 in their IBD industry. What do you all think? I appreciate your CANSLIM comments. Thanks, Joe McCall - --Boundary_(ID_u/RmThFCmj3WISYYMKiKEw) Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT
Hi Joe:
 
With 4 distribution days in the last 6, and a clear failure to break its old high ($30) today, and the fact that its RS appears to me to be lagging other leaders of this bull (YHOO was at $25 on April 7 - compare that to, HITK, SSYS, MTLG, etc...) I personally would be looking for reasons to sell. In fact, at the open today, $30 looked to me like an excellant risk/reward short entry, with a tight stop at $30.85.
 
JMHO, and you should know that I have been a bit too cautious for most of this 3-month bull.
 
Cheers,
 
Ian
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From: Joe McCall
Sent: Friday, June 06, 2003 8:36 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Sell Yahoo?

I hope you all don't mind me asking your opinion on this, but I can't think of a better place to go.
 
I am up about 35% on Yahoo.  I have never had a stock do this well before!  I think I should keep it for a little while longer until I see stronger institutional selling, but I am getting nervous.  It is MUCH harder to decide when to sell a stock than when to buy it.
 
Yahoo dropped a little bit after it appeared on the cover of BusinessWeek, but it is climbing slightly again.  Let me list the reasons why I think I should hold on to it for a little while, and you can comment on my thoughts if you like.
 
  • I see only 4 distribution weeks in the last 6 months. 
  • The RS line is still rising, although it may have started flattening out lately. 
  • WON recommends drawing a line along the last 2 or 3 peaks on a weekly chart and sell when a stock crosses it over it.  This hasn't happened yet. 
  • I see it in a 2nd stage base.  It has not reached a 3rd or 4th stage base.
One negative I can think of: It has had a #1 in IBD industry rankings for a long time, and it is ranked #5 in their IBD industry. 
 
What do you all think?  I appreciate your CANSLIM comments.
 
Thanks,
 
Joe McCall
- --Boundary_(ID_u/RmThFCmj3WISYYMKiKEw)-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #3362 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.