From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3385 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, June 23 2003 Volume 02 : Number 3385 In this issue: RE: Re: [CANSLIM] Housing Stocks Re: [CANSLIM] Should we concider OTHER intraday volume? ANSS [CANSLIM] When to Sell RE: [CANSLIM] When to Sell Re: [CANSLIM] When to Sell ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 18:20:13 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: RE: Re: [CANSLIM] Housing Stocks Hi All, Worth taking a look at leading stocks HOV and RYL to see if they put in climax runs and/or exhaustion gaps. That's a good clue. Katherine - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of rolfh@mindspring.com Sent: Friday, June 20, 2003 3:15 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: Re: [CANSLIM] Housing Stocks And you're right about the greed factor. One thing I've learned is that by being wishy-washy and second guessing an exit plan, the 25% that was 30% can soon end up being 20%, 15%, ...... followed by lack of sleep, antacids, etc. Rolf > > Fanus, Your right. But it's hard to fight the greed factor. Why settle for 25% profit when I could have had 30%. :) - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Fanus" To: Sent: Friday, June 20, 2003 2:38 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Housing Stocks > Hi John > > Who knows if this is a correction, or if Monday was > the top. But this really shouldn't matter. You need > to have stops, either mentally, or hard, and just > stick to them. That way you wouldn't start to wonder > while you are holding a position what to do. Just > stick to your plan. > > Best Regards > - Fanus > > --- jmp23834 wrote: > > I had some nice profits in housing stock at the > > beginning of the week. (DHI, RYL, MTH) Based on > > CANSLIM rules are these going through a normal > > correction this week or should I have sold on > > Monday? > > > > John P > > > __________________________________ > Do you Yahoo!? > SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! > http://sbc.yahoo.com > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2003 16:21:15 -0700 From: "John Calkins" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Should we concider OTHER intraday volume? ANSS This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_002C_01C33747.F8BF05E0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable MessageHi Katherine, I guess I was dragging out the microscope because of all the activity at = the close with no real price movement but todays action was as you say = the confirmation. Your reminding us of the rules, Katherine, is absolutely priceless! Thanks, JC ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Katherine Malm=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, June 20, 2003 8:40 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Should we concider OTHER intraday volume? ANSS Hi John, I think too much focus on the pattern of activity intraday is too fine = for CANSLIM investing and generally causes one to "overthink" a position = and/or overtrade. While variations such as those you mention are of = importance to a short term trader, the CANSLIM frame of reference is = measured in days or weeks, so volume and/or price action should really = be considered in a larger context. To put the volume action for ANSS in perspective, look at it relative = to prior days' intraday action: http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/ANSSIntraday062003.JPG The important thing is that ANSS broke out on volume >=3D150%. As if = finished mid-range on a weak day in the market, there's some evidence = there's some oomph in the stock. It would be more important to watch the = follow-thru action in the days after the BO than to get too caught up in = the intraday action itself. Katherine -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of John Calkins Sent: Thursday, June 19, 2003 10:06 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Should we concider OTHER intraday volume? ANSS I purchaced ANSS today at midday after it crossed its pivot and = proved its volume was high. My question is should we concider the = "OTHER" action of the intraday volume? I watched the price stay steady = near the middle of its daily trading range for the day, above its pivot = but near the end of the day the volume suddenly doubled with no real = price movement. Then right at the close it move up slightly with = another doubling of the volume. Can some of this be concidered churning = or is this large volume action normal. Or could it be concidered a sign = of strength in the face of todays sell off? Now that I own the stock, I = want to carefully watch to make sure any down movements are on low = volumn but what about CANSLIM and watching this intraday volume? - ------=_NextPart_000_002C_01C33747.F8BF05E0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message
Hi Katherine,
 
I guess I was dragging out the = microscope=20 because of all the activity at the close with no real price movement but = todays=20 action was as you say the confirmation.
 
Your reminding us of the rules, = Katherine, is=20 absolutely priceless!
 
Thanks, JC
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Katherine=20 Malm
Sent: Friday, June 20, 2003 = 8:40 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Should = we concider=20 OTHER intraday volume? ANSS

Hi John,
 
I think too much focus on the = pattern of=20 activity intraday is too fine for CANSLIM investing and generally = causes one=20 to "overthink" a position and/or overtrade. While variations such as = those you=20 mention are of importance to a short term trader, the CANSLIM frame of = reference is measured in days or weeks, so volume and/or price action = should=20 really be considered in a larger context.
 
To put the volume action for = ANSS in=20 perspective, look at it relative to prior days' intraday = action:
 
http:/= /www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/ANSSIntraday062003.JPG
 
The important thing is that ANSS = broke out=20 on volume >=3D150%. As if finished mid-range on a weak day in the = market,=20 there's some evidence there's some oomph in the stock. It would be = more=20 important to watch the follow-thru action in the days after the BO = than to get=20 too caught up in the intraday action itself.
 
Katherine
-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of John=20 Calkins
Sent: Thursday, June 19, 2003 10:06 = PM
To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] Should we = concider=20 OTHER intraday volume? ANSS

I purchaced ANSS today at midday = after it=20 crossed its pivot and proved its volume was high.  My question = is=20 should we concider the "OTHER" action of the intraday volume?  = I=20 watched the price stay steady near the middle of its daily trading = range for=20 the day, above its pivot but near the end of the day the volume = suddenly=20 doubled with no real price movement.  Then right at the close = it move=20 up slightly with another doubling of the volume.  Can some of = this be=20 concidered churning or is this large volume action normal. Or could = it be=20 concidered a sign of strength in the face of todays sell off?  = Now that=20 I own the stock, I want to carefully watch to make sure any down = movements=20 are on low volumn but what about CANSLIM and watching this intraday=20 volume?
- ------=_NextPart_000_002C_01C33747.F8BF05E0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 21 Jun 2003 14:35:38 -0700 From: "Harold Josephson" Subject: [CANSLIM] When to Sell This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_000D_01C33802.6593A210 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Hi Katherine, Your advice, please. Prompted by my recent experience with DT, what criteria would you apply to the sale of a stock bought in anticipation of a failed breakout if the stock continues to languish pennies below your cost? Thanks Harold - ------=_NextPart_000_000D_01C33802.6593A210 Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Hi Katherine,

 

Your advice, please.  Prompted by my = recent experience with DT, what criteria would you apply to the = sale of a stock bought in anticipation of a failed breakout if the stock = continues to languish pennies below your cost?

 

Thanks

 

Harold

 

- ------=_NextPart_000_000D_01C33802.6593A210-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 21 Jun 2003 17:02:43 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] When to Sell This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0002_01C33816.EE8B7A20 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Hi Harold, Looking at a chart of DT, I assume that you purchased it on 6/18/03, when it staged a breakout on volume above the 15.22 pivot set 6/2/3. First, it's not uncommon for a stock to "rest" after a breakout, especially in a weak market. The last few market days haven't been particularly strong, but the current rally is still intact. That said, here are things I would consider: (1) Was the base as sound as possible on purchase? The stronger the base, the more tolerance you can afford to give something. Check things like symmetry in the base, action of the RSLine, accumulation patterns on the right side of the base, etc. (2) Was the breakout day strong, i.e. did it close above the pivot on >=150% ADV? If the breakout day is strong, then you have entered the stock at the "optimal buy point" if purchased within 5% of the pivot. (3) Did the breakout show additional strength after the breakout day by either (a) showing follow-thru action in the days following (note: weak markets will tend to hold back the follow-thru, so this should always be considered in context) (b) showing strength as confirmed in the volume on the breakout week vs. prior week. (4) What was your initial stop loss set *before* you purchased the stock? While WON suggests 8%, each investor will set their own tolerance. For me, strong breakout + weak market = midrange tolerance. Has the stock violated this mental or hard stop? The reason I mention the stop set *before* purchase is that it guarantees that the investor has considered all the risk factors and the possible scenarios and has set their go/no go price as a result. That's very important in preventing waffling and/or overthinking a position. (5) How are the rest of the industry brethren and/or direct competitors behaving? How are the leaders in the industry behaving? I'm talking about leaders in a technical sense, because industry action is a summary of behavior of the stocks in the group and it doesn't really matter if they are CANSLIM stocks or not. A "strong" stock is a strong stock, regardless of the fundamental characteristics. In other words, how is the market treating the leaders? Are they selling them off or buying them? (6) Is this a bottoming base or a base after a long series of rises? Rises off of bottoming bases sometimes take a while to get going, because they are still climbing through several years of disappointed investors. Katherine -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Harold Josephson Sent: Saturday, June 21, 2003 3:36 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] When to Sell Hi Katherine, Your advice, please. Prompted by my recent experience with DT, what criteria would you apply to the sale of a stock bought in anticipation of a failed breakout if the stock continues to languish pennies below your cost? Thanks Harold - ------=_NextPart_000_0002_01C33816.EE8B7A20 Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Harold,
 
Looking at a chart of DT, I assume = that you=20 purchased it on 6/18/03, when it staged a breakout on volume above the = 15.22=20 pivot set 6/2/3. First, it's not uncommon for a stock to "rest" after a=20 breakout, especially in a weak market. The last few market days haven't = been=20 particularly strong, but the current rally is still intact. =
 
That said, here are things I would = consider:
 
(1) Was the base as sound as = possible on=20 purchase? The stronger the base, the more tolerance you can afford to = give=20 something. Check things like symmetry in the base, action of the RSLine, = accumulation patterns on the right side of the base, etc.
 
(2) Was the breakout day strong, = i.e. did it=20 close above the pivot on >=3D150% ADV? If the breakout day is strong, = then you=20 have entered the stock at the "optimal buy point" if purchased within 5% = of the=20 pivot.
 
(3) Did the breakout show = additional=20 strength after the breakout day by either
     (a) = showing=20 follow-thru action in the days following (note: weak markets will tend = to hold=20 back the follow-thru, so this should always be considered in=20 context)
     (b) = showing=20 strength as confirmed in the volume on the breakout week vs. prior=20 week.
 
(4) What was your initial stop = loss set=20 *before* you purchased the stock? While WON suggests 8%, each investor = will set=20 their own tolerance. For me, strong breakout + weak market =3D midrange = tolerance.=20 Has the stock violated this mental or hard stop? The reason I mention = the stop=20 set *before* purchase is that it guarantees that the investor has = considered all=20 the risk factors and the possible scenarios and has set their go/no go = price as=20 a result. That's very important in preventing waffling and/or = overthinking a=20 position.
 
(5) How are the rest of the = industry=20 brethren and/or direct competitors behaving? How are the leaders in the = industry=20 behaving? I'm talking about leaders in a technical sense, because = industry=20 action is a summary of behavior of the stocks in the group and it = doesn't really=20 matter if they are CANSLIM stocks or not. A "strong" stock is a = strong=20 stock, regardless of the fundamental characteristics. In other = words, how=20 is the market treating the leaders? Are they selling them off or buying=20 them?
 
(6) Is this a bottoming base or a = base after=20 a long series of rises? Rises off of bottoming bases sometimes take a = while to=20 get going, because they are still climbing through several years of = disappointed=20 investors.
 
Katherine
 
 
-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Harold=20 Josephson
Sent: Saturday, June 21, 2003 3:36 = PM
To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] When to=20 Sell

Hi=20 Katherine,

 

Your advice, = please. =20 Prompted by my recent experience with DT, what criteria would you = apply to the=20 sale of a stock = bought in=20 anticipation of a failed breakout if the stock continues to languish = pennies=20 below your cost?

 

Thanks

 

Harold

 

- ------=_NextPart_000_0002_01C33816.EE8B7A20-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2003 08:05:33 -0700 (PDT) From: Sol Mayer Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When to Sell - --0-1141937768-1056380733=:62699 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii by the way DT pulled back to its 10/13 day moving avg. Harold Josephson wrote: Hi Katherine, Your advice, please. Prompted by my recent experience with DT, what criteria would you apply to the sale of a stock bought in anticipation of a failed breakout if the stock continues to languish pennies below your cost? Thanks Harold - --------------------------------- Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! - --0-1141937768-1056380733=:62699 Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
by the way DT pulled back to its 10/13 day moving avg.

Harold Josephson <hj@hjosephson.com> wrote:

Hi Katherine,

 

Your advice, please.  Prompted by my recent experience with DT, what criteria would you apply to the sale of a stock bought in anticipation of a failed breakout if the stock continues to languish pennies below your cost?

 

Thanks

 

Harold

 

Do you Yahoo!?
SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! - --0-1141937768-1056380733=:62699-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #3385 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.