From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3387 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, June 23 2003 Volume 02 : Number 3387 In this issue: RE: [CANSLIM] When to Sell Re: [CANSLIM] Fourth Distribution Day -- potentially in the last 16 sessions RE: [CANSLIM] MVL Re: [CANSLIM] When to Sell Re: [CANSLIM] Fourth Distribution Day -- potentially in the last 16 sessions Re: [CANSLIM] Fourth Distribution Day -- potentially in the last 16 sessions Re: [CANSLIM] O.T: Sounds like inflation ahead to me! ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2003 14:17:49 -0500 From: "Katherine Malm" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] When to Sell This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0016_01C33992.398E6E70 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Hi Harold, A 10/13 MA indicator is a short term indicator and sell rules based on that are short term rules. An entry on a breakout from an base is more typically an intermediate term entry. While there's absolutely nothing inherently wrong with using short term indicators and/or the 10/13 MA itself, you're more likely to be whipsawed out of positions this way because the entry/exit rules are mismatched. I would look through both your entry and exit rules for intermediate term entry and determine whether (1) this was a good entry point to begin with and (2) if it was a good entry point, have any sell rules kicked in? If you entered DP as a short term trade, then rules such as violation of the 10/13 or other short term indicators would of course be your exit signal. That said, if you can't sleep at night holding on to DP because your gut is screaming "sell", then do it. The market has no memory, so it won't be knocking on your door telling you "good job" or "why did you do that?" Katherine -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Harold Josephson Sent: Monday, June 23, 2003 12:49 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] When to Sell Until penetrated, as it now appears to have been? Harold Josephson Tel: 323.850.1333 Fax: 323.512.8968 hj@hjosephson.com -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Sol Mayer Sent: Monday, June 23, 2003 11:19 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] When to Sell 10/13 day m.a are short term support indicators Harold Josephson wrote: Would you sell here? Harold Josephson Tel: 323.850.1333 Fax: 323.512.8968 hj@hjosephson.com -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Sol Mayer Sent: Monday, June 23, 2003 8:06 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When to Sell by the way DT pulled back to its 10/13 day moving avg. Harold Josephson wrote: Hi Katherine, Your advice, please. Prompted by my recent experience with DT, what criteria would you apply to the sale of a stock bought in anticipation of a failed breakout if the stock continues to languish pennies below your cost? Thanks Harold - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! - ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! - ------=_NextPart_000_0016_01C33992.398E6E70 Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Harold,
 
A 10/13 MA indicator is a short = term=20 indicator and sell rules based on that are short term rules. An entry on = a=20 breakout from an base is more typically an intermediate term entry. = While=20 there's absolutely nothing inherently wrong with = using short term=20 indicators and/or the 10/13 MA itself, you're more likely to be = whipsawed out of=20 positions this way because the entry/exit rules=20 are mismatched. 
 
I would look through both your = entry and=20 exit rules for intermediate term entry and determine = whether
(1) this was a good entry point to = begin=20 with and
(2) if it was a good entry point, = have any=20 sell rules kicked in?
 
If you entered DP as a short term = trade,=20 then rules such as violation of the 10/13 or other short term indicators = would=20 of course be your exit signal.
 
That said, if you can't sleep at = night=20 holding on to DP because your gut is screaming "sell", then do it. The = market=20 has no memory, so it won't be knocking on your door telling you "good = job" or=20 "why did you do that?"
 
Katherine
-----Original Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Harold=20 Josephson
Sent: Monday, June 23, 2003 12:49 PM
To: = canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] When to=20 Sell

Until=20 penetrated, as it now appears to have been?

 

Harold = Josephson
Tel:=20 323.850.1333
Fax: = 323.512.8968
hj@hjosephson.com

-----Original=20 Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20 On Behalf Of Sol=20 Mayer
Sent: Monday, = June 23,=20 2003 11:19 AM
To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] When to=20 Sell

 

10/13 day m.a are short term = support=20 indicators

Harold Josephson=20 <hj@hjosephson.com> wrote:

Would you=20 sell here?

 

Harold = Josephson
Tel:=20 323.850.1333
Fax: = 323.512.8968
hj@hjosephson.com

-----Original=20 Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20 On Behalf Of Sol=20 Mayer
Sent: Monday, = June 23,=20 2003 8:06 AM
To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When to=20 Sell

 

by the way DT pulled back to = its 10/13=20 day moving avg.

Harold Josephson=20 <hj@hjosephson.com> wrote:

Hi=20 Katherine,

 

Your advice,=20 please.  Prompted by my recent experience with DT, what criteria = would=20 you apply to the sale of a stock bought in anticipation of a failed = breakout=20 if the stock continues to languish pennies below your = cost?

 

Thanks

 

Harold

 

Do you Yahoo!?
SBC=20 Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month!

Do you Yahoo!?
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- ------=_NextPart_000_0016_01C33992.398E6E70-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2003 12:22:01 -0700 (PDT) From: Fanus Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fourth Distribution Day -- potentially in the last 16 sessions Hi Pritish Just curious how you knew beforehand that some of your holdings were going to turn into a loss? Why buy then? :-) - - Fanus - --- Pritish Shah wrote: > I had to sell few stocks in the last couple > days. Some violated the 8% (Eg. AZN) rule and some > were going to turn into a loss (Eg. CELG). > > I have also noticed that microcaps have been more > stable. (TCHC, WFSI and others) > > Regards, > Pritish > > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! http://sbc.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2003 13:31:38 -0600 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] MVL On 23 Jun 2003 at 12:36, michael_niemotka@baxter.com wrote: > In my opinion, 8% stop loss after you are up a fair amount is too > conservative, but if those are your rules, and you follow them, I applaud > you for sticking to your guns. I think you are correct on the 8%, I don't know where Fred pulled that one from. MVL looks pretty awful today, the gap down after the recent little rally back towards the old high seems like a bad sign. The news headline says people are disappointed with the "Hulk" opening, but the thing took in 62 mil. I suppose that was all priced in, its the "sell the news" part of the deal now. Since you already took part of your profits, you might want to see if it stabilizes. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2003 14:57:21 -0500 From: "Gene Ricci" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When to Sell This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_002A_01C33997.BFE49760 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Harold, are you discussing DT (Duetsche Telekom)?=20 If so, it's not a stock that I would say is 'having good fundies'. Gene =20 10/13 day m.a are short term support indicators=20 Harold Josephson wrote:=20 Would you sell here? Harold Josephson Tel: 323.850.1333 Fax: 323.512.8968 hj@hjosephson.com=20 -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Sol Mayer Sent: Monday, June 23, 2003 8:06 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When to Sell by the way DT pulled back to its 10/13 day moving avg. Harold Josephson wrote:=20 Hi Katherine, Your advice, please. Prompted by my recent experience with DT, what = criteria would you apply to the sale of a stock bought in anticipation = of a failed breakout if the stock continues to languish pennies below = your cost? Thanks Harold - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - --- Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - --- Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! - ------=_NextPart_000_002A_01C33997.BFE49760 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Harold, are you discussing DT = (Duetsche=20 Telekom)?
 
If so, it's not a stock that I = would say=20 is 'having good fundies'.
Gene
 
 
 
 

10/13 day m.a are short = term support=20 indicators

Harold Josephson=20 <hj@hjosephson.com> wrote:

Would you=20 sell here?

 

Harold = Josephson
Tel:=20 323.850.1333
Fax: = 323.512.8968
hj@hjosephson.com

-----Original=20 Message-----
From:=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20 On Behalf Of Sol=20 Mayer
Sent: = Monday, June=20 23, 2003 8:06 AM
To:=20 canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] When = to=20 Sell

 

by the way DT pulled back = to its 10/13=20 day moving avg.

Harold Josephson=20 <hj@hjosephson.com> wrote:

Hi=20 Katherine,

 

Your=20 advice, please.  Prompted by my recent experience with DT, what = criteria would you apply to the sale of a stock bought in = anticipation of a=20 failed breakout if the stock continues to languish pennies below = your=20 cost?

 

Thanks

 

Harold

 

Do you Yahoo!?
SBC=20 Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month!

Do you Yahoo!?
SBC=20 Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per=20 month!

- ------=_NextPart_000_002A_01C33997.BFE49760-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2003 15:02:00 -0500 From: "Gene Ricci" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fourth Distribution Day -- potentially in the last 16 sessions This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_004C_01C33998.661859F0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Rolf, neat! Looks like a spreadsheet is in order. Thanks for the idea, Gene ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Rolf Hertenstein=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, June 23, 2003 12:55 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fourth Distribution Day -- potentially in the = last 16 sessions I can up with my own system to help me track accumulation and = distribution days, and especially to avoid IBD's masking of distribution days that = were not "unequivocal". On days with higher volume, an index gets a D- if = it was down less than 1%, a D if down 1-2%, and a D+ if down > 2%. Same idea = for accumulation days: on higher volume days it's an A- if up <1%, A if up = 1-2%, and A+ if up > 2%. Using this system, here's the number of acumulation and distribution = days for the last 3 weeks (15 trading days ended June 20): DOW SP500 NASD A- 3 4 1 A 2 2 2 A+ 1 1 2 D- 0 1 1 D 1 1 2 D+ 0 0 0 I wasn't sure what to do with the DOW on 17 June. Volume was up, but = the DOW wasn't even down 0.1%, so it's not included in the tally. I don't = have a D+ on the DOW or SP500 for the past few months. Last D+ day on the = NASD was 31 March. A's still have it in the past few weeks, who knows = about the next few. I wouldn't call you paranoid in any case; healthy skepticism is good = IMHO. Rolf ----- Original Message ----- From: "Pritish Shah" I guess people are thinking why the heck am I so paranoid. This = probably is the third distribution day in the last two to three weeks on Nasdaq. I am trying to guage whether other people are seeing the same things = as I am. IBD said in its Big Picture that one of the D-Days did not have enough selling preassure. However, the volume was higher than the previous = day by just a tad and was also above the average volume. Plus, I noticed on Friday that 60%+ of all the advisors were bullish = on the market (contrarian indicator). A lot of the leaders are reversing = their gains. I had to sell few stocks in the last couple days. Some violated = the 8% (Eg. AZN) rule and some were going to turn into a loss (Eg. CELG). I have also noticed that microcaps have been more stable. (TCHC, WFSI = and others) Regards, Pritish - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_004C_01C33998.661859F0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Rolf, neat! Looks like a spreadsheet = is in=20 order.
 
Thanks for the idea,
Gene
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Rolf=20 Hertenstein
Sent: Monday, June 23, 2003 = 12:55=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fourth=20 Distribution Day -- potentially in the last 16 sessions

I can up with my own system to help me track = accumulation and=20 distribution
days, and especially to avoid IBD's masking of = distribution=20 days that were
not "unequivocal".  On days with higher volume, = an=20 index gets a D- if it was
down less than 1%, a D if down 1-2%, and = a D+ if=20 down > 2%.  Same idea for
accumulation days: on higher = volume days=20 it's an A- if up <1%, A if up 1-2%,
and A+ if up > = 2%.

Using=20 this system, here's the number of acumulation and distribution = days
for the=20 last 3 weeks (15 trading days ended June=20 20):
         =20 = DOW           &nbs= p;=20 SP500          =20 NASD
A-        =20 = 3            =         =20 = 4            =       =20 1
A         =20 = 2            =         =20 = 2            =       =20 2
A+       =20 = 1            =         =20 = 1            =       =20 2

D-        =20 = 0            =         =20 = 1            =       =20 1
D         =20 = 1            =         =20 = 1            =       =20 2
D+       =20 = 0            =         =20 = 0            =       =20 0

I wasn't sure what to do with the DOW on 17 June.  = Volume was=20 up, but the
DOW wasn't even down 0.1%, so it's not included in the=20 tally.  I don't have
a D+ on the DOW or SP500 for the past few = months.  Last D+ day on the NASD
was 31 March.  A's still = have it=20 in the past few weeks, who knows about the
next few.

I = wouldn't call=20 you paranoid in any case; healthy skepticism is good=20 IMHO.

 Rolf


----- Original Message = - -----
From:=20 "Pritish Shah" <pshah@lason.com>

I guess = people=20 are thinking why the heck am I so paranoid. This probably is
the = third=20 distribution day in the last two to three weeks on Nasdaq.

I am = trying=20 to guage whether other people are seeing the same things as=20 I
am.

IBD said in its Big Picture that one of the D-Days did = not=20 have enough
selling preassure. However, the volume was higher than = the=20 previous day by
just a tad and was also above the average=20 volume.

Plus, I noticed on Friday that 60%+ of all the advisors = were=20 bullish on the
market (contrarian  indicator). A lot of the = leaders=20 are reversing their
gains. I had to sell few stocks in the last = couple=20 days. Some violated the
8% (Eg. AZN) rule and some were going to = turn into=20 a loss (Eg. CELG).

I have also noticed that microcaps have been = more=20 stable. (TCHC, WFSI=20 and
others)

Regards,
Pritish



-
-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim".  Do=20 not use quotes in your email.


-
-To = subscribe/unsubscribe, email=20 "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In= =20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe = canslim". =20 Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_004C_01C33998.661859F0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2003 16:11:20 -0400 From: "Pritish Shah" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fourth Distribution Day -- potentially in the last 16 sessions Fanus, Funny. No I cannot predict :) But, I was monitoring the stock and the price was falling. CELG was up 5%+ = for me at one time and then it came close to breakeven. I sold it before = it turned into a loss. Basically it was going down and down and the action = was very choppy.=20 Regards, Pritish >>> fanus13@yahoo.com 06/23/03 03:22PM >>> Hi Pritish Just curious how you knew beforehand that some of your holdings were going to turn into a loss? Why buy then? :-) - - Fanus - --- Pritish Shah wrote: >=20 I had to sell few stocks in the last couple > days. Some violated the 8% (Eg. AZN) rule and some > were going to turn into a loss (Eg. CELG). >=20 > I have also noticed that microcaps have been more > stable. (TCHC, WFSI and others) >=20 > Regards, > Pritish >=20 >=20 >=20 > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email > "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! http://sbc.yahoo.com=20 - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2003 20:33:43 -0400 From: "Jeff Mulder" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O.T: Sounds like inflation ahead to me! This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00DA_01C339C6.BCD80F50 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable << I'm still in aerospace now btw. >> Any industry-insider insight into EASI? It's a CANSLIMmer that recently = made a tepid breakout to new highs. - - Jeff ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Bill Triffet=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, June 20, 2003 12:58 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O.T: Sounds like inflation ahead to me! Fred et all, Assuming the fact that I'm just a kid of 43 now, I wasn't paying = attention to the economics of the 1980's but I do seem to remember the = same facts/fears being brought up then by those who were "paying = attention". (not me...(g)) I do recall working MUCHO overtime at = aerospace/defense companys back then. I do recall interest rates and = property taxes (in Los Angeles) were sky high. I also recall writing off = a percentage of my consumer credit on my taxes as well back then don't = know if that hurt or helped the economy. I'm still in aerospace now btw. Do you know of any site that could give comparative data of the = economics of the 1980's with regard to jobs, the deficit, etc? I've = often wondered about the comparisons. Perhaps others here can pipe in = (minus their political views) about the state of the economy then and = now? Might put a good spin on the current state of the markets. -- Bill >>The U.S. Treasury announced an as-expected budget deficit of $90.5 billion in May. Year-to-date, the budget deficit stands at $292.1 billion vs. $145.4 billion in the year-ago period. Both individual and corporate tax receipts are sharply lower than a year ago, reflecting declining payrolls and soft business conditions. Government spending = is high, especially for defense and Medicare. Wonder how long it will take the foreign investors to panic? And when they do, will the market continue on its way up? - ------=_NextPart_000_00DA_01C339C6.BCD80F50 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
<< I'm=20 still in aerospace now btw. >>
 
Any industry-insider insight into = EASI?  It's=20 a CANSLIMmer that recently made a tepid breakout to new = highs.
 
- Jeff
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Bill=20 Triffet
Sent: Friday, June 20, 2003 = 12:58=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O.T: = Sounds like=20 inflation ahead to me!

Fred et all,

Assuming the fact that I'm just a = kid of 43=20 now, I wasn't paying attention to the economics of the 1980's but I do = seem to=20 remember the same facts/fears being brought up then by those who were = "paying=20 attention". (not me...(g)) I do recall working MUCHO overtime at=20 aerospace/defense companys back then. I do recall interest rates and = property=20 taxes (in Los Angeles) were sky high. I also recall writing off a = percentage=20 of my consumer credit on my taxes as well back then don't know if that = hurt or=20 helped the economy. I'm still in aerospace now btw.

Do you know = of any=20 site that could give comparative data of the economics of the 1980's = with=20 regard to jobs, the deficit, etc? I've often wondered about the = comparisons.=20 Perhaps others here can pipe in (minus their political views) about = the state=20 of the economy then and now? Might put a good spin on the current = state of the=20 markets.

--
Bill

>>The U.S. Treasury announced = an=20 as-expected budget deficit of $90.5
billion in May. Year-to-date, = the=20 budget deficit stands at $292.1
billion vs. $145.4 billion in the = year-ago=20 period. Both individual and
corporate tax receipts are sharply = lower than a=20 year ago, reflecting
declining payrolls and soft business = conditions.=20 Government spending is
high, especially for defense and = Medicare.
Wonder=20 how long it will take the foreign investors to panic?  And = when
they=20 do, will the market continue on its way=20 up?


- ------=_NextPart_000_00DA_01C339C6.BCD80F50-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #3387 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.