From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #343 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Tuesday, July 28 1998 Volume 02 : Number 343 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" OTC RE: [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson Re: [CANSLIM] Possible Shorts RE: [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson [CANSLIM] Re: "M" and lurkers afraid to post [CANSLIM] "M" [CANSLIM] World Markets question [CANSLIM] Noncanslim A bright spot IBD Re: [CANSLIM] "M" Re: [CANSLIM] World Markets question [CANSLIM] "M" Re: [CANSLIM] World Markets question [CANSLIM] AZPN - Why diversify your portfolio? Re: [CANSLIM] "M" RE: [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson [CANSLIM] He that wrestles with us... [CANSLIM] "M" Re: [CANSLIM] He that wrestles with us... [CANSLIM] Warrants RE: [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson [CANSLIM] Need book name Re: [CANSLIM] Need book name [CANSLIM] Introduction Re: [CANSLIM] Need book name [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM: Numerology and VIX [CANSLIM] General Market Analysis Re: [CANSLIM] Need book name ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 15:01:54 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" OTC <> You're smart to notice the new lows. Also the number of decliners versus advancers. As you pointed out earlier, this is all awfully muddy. The rebound you mention, for example, came along at about the same time as the AXP announcement and the PC sales announcement. And there's always the short-covering card to be shuffled into the deck. And the narrowness of the advance. A lot to chew on. - --Db == dbphoenix@yahoo.com _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 19:14:09 -0400 From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson Jeffry wrote: "Frequently, the first stock market rally during a beginning downtrend will fail abruptly. After a resurgence, the second day will open strongly. But toward the end of the day, the market will suddenly close down. The abrupt failure of the market to follow through on its first recovery attempt should be met by further selling on your part. HTMMIS, 2d Ed. at 50-51." - -------------------------------- This would seem to support what I wrote to you earlier- that today's rally should continue in the morning and curtail later in the afternoon. Correct? Nelson E. Timken http://onelist.com/subscribe.cgi/investing-list - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 20:01:49 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson > Jeffry wrote: > > "Frequently, the first stock market rally during a beginning downtrend > will fail abruptly. After a resurgence, the second day will open > strongly. But toward the end of the day, the market will suddenly > close down. The abrupt failure of the market to follow through on its > first recovery attempt should be met by further selling on your part. > > > HTMMIS, 2d Ed. at 50-51." > -------------------------------- > > This would seem to support what I wrote to you earlier- that today's rally > should continue in the morning and curtail later in the afternoon. Correct? > > Nelson E. Timken Yes, *IF* that happens. It may go on for several days, or even move on to new highs. First trouble spot is tomorrow, however. I'm long the rally with you, Nelson. Hope it goes for a while. Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 20:44:54 -0400 From: Al French Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Possible Shorts dbphoenix wrote: > [snip] > With shorts, not only do you have the uptick rule to deal with, you > also have to find the shares. This can make placing the order very > tricky. I don't like to place a short until I see the volume actually > coming in and the bid starting to weaken. So far, no problem. The > problem arises with the limit. I'm not about to place a market order > on a short, but if I don't give the limit enough wiggle, I may lose > the order altogether. I can't wait for the uptick to place the order > because by then it may be too late (after the order is placed, they > still have to locate the shares; granted, this may take only seconds, > but seconds count in this circumstance). > [snip] > --Db One of the things I like about Datek Online is, when you get your quote, it indicates whether the bid price is an uptick so you can sell short at that price. The relatively few shorts I have made have been executed within about 10 seconds so they must keep a database of their available shares. Al French alfrench@erols.com - -- - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 20:59:17 -0400 From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson All I ask is tomorrow, Jeffry. I am not looking for miracles. If the rally were to last a week, and I had the guts to stay in, I would be rich, and that is not my destiny, and I know it. :) There's a real predictor for you! If I am still in after tomorrow- down it goes- never mind signals, etc...it's the "Nelson Rule". If Nelson sells out- it goes up. If Nelson buys in, a correction is imminent. I think Greenspan was right...the market is inflated like a balloon at a kid's birthday party, a little more air and *POP* it all explodes in our faces. Frankly, I'd love to see the market hit 10,000 before that happens, but I don't see it soon. Then there is the usual October "curse", that -554 drop we had last year that taught me the hard lesson of "panic selling"...and the value of "buy and hold" investing. Nelson E. Timken http://onelist.com/subscribe.cgi/investing-list - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Jeffry White Sent: Monday, July 27, 1998 8:02 PM To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson > Jeffry wrote: > > "Frequently, the first stock market rally during a beginning downtrend > will fail abruptly. After a resurgence, the second day will open > strongly. But toward the end of the day, the market will suddenly > close down. The abrupt failure of the market to follow through on its > first recovery attempt should be met by further selling on your part. > > > HTMMIS, 2d Ed. at 50-51." > -------------------------------- > > This would seem to support what I wrote to you earlier- that today's rally > should continue in the morning and curtail later in the afternoon. Correct? > > Nelson E. Timken Yes, *IF* that happens. It may go on for several days, or even move on to new highs. First trouble spot is tomorrow, however. I'm long the rally with you, Nelson. Hope it goes for a while. Jeffry - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 20:19:44 -0500 (CDT) From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: "M" and lurkers afraid to post Dan, Well said!! A newbie, Mary You wrote: Here's my perspective on "being critiqued/humiliated or whatever label = you :want to put on it": : :In my case, I choose to post here, because I'd much rather take the = chance :of being critiqued or humiliated by the members of this list than being :humiliated by the markets. : :Being critiqued or even being humiliated by the posters here "for me" is :like a trip to Disney World compared to being humiliated by the markets. : :To take it one step further: One can CHOOSE to feel hurt OR NOT when :reading a post. After all a post basically is only a bunch of ASCII :characters that appear on your screen. You look at it, form words, :sentences and assign meaning to them, interpret it and even try to :mind-read the other person's intentions.=20 : No one hurts you like you hurt yourself. It's an axiom. I too would prefer to be roasted here than hung out to dry by the markets. Fire away! - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 27 Jul 1998 22:26:49 -0500 From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" I have been following many of the indices as well as my stocks of late, and am convinced that the recent upmove is a big cap phenomenon. Why (besides others have said so)? 1. Take a look at a chart of the Russell 2000 (RUT) - the index was down 1% today - and is back where it was in February. 2. Take a look at a chart of the Wilshire Small Caps (WSX) - same phenomenon. 3. Now... take a look at the S&P 500 (SPX) - an up day today - about 15% higher than in February. 4. Look at the new highs/new lows or the A/D line in IBD. More stocks have been down than up for the better part of the last 4 months except for a brief period about 1-2 weeks ago. 5. Inflows to big cap funds and index funds continue to be large. 401Ks by major corporations are seeing continued investment which go into these funds. BUT, the MARKET, "M" is not in an uptrend; it did not rebound today. The major indices on the big cap stocks did rebound today, and have been in a general uptrend. Why is O'Neil suddenly mentioning big caps when he has not been high on them before? Because they are outperforming. My take on it all, Dave C. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 13:41:41 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: [CANSLIM] World Markets question Why do I not see the British market at this address: http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u Under the European markets I do get: Austria ATX ^ATX 9:02AM 1497.95 - -15.96 - -1.05% Belgium BEL-20 ^BFX 9:37AM 3584.13 +27.55 +0.77% Czech Republic PX50 ^PX50 5:28AM 479.7 +0.6 +0.13% Denmark KFX ^KFX 9:37AM 239.50 +0.70 +0.29% Finland Helsinki General ^HEX 9:38AM 5369.91 - -119.01 - -2.17% France CAC 40 ^FCHI 9:38AM 4135.66 - -3.87 - -0.09% Germany DAX ^GDAX 9:38AM 5880.00 - -5.00 - -0.08% Greece General Share ^ATG 6:30AM 2729.34 - -3.86 - -0.14% Hungary BUX ^BUX 7:17AM 8232.35 - -18.13 - -0.22% Italy MIBTel ^CMMG 9:38AM 24883 +23 +0.09% Netherlands AEX General ^AEX 9:38AM 1254.18 +0.68 +0.05% Norway Total Share ^NTOT 9:18AM 1282.54 - -5.27 - -0.41% Portugal BVL 30 ^BVL30 9:38AM 5690.72 - -10.43 - -0.18% Russia Moscow Times ^MTMS 7:50AM 296.08 +2.57 +0.88% Slovakia SAX ^SAX Jul 27 107.81 0.00 0.00% Spain Madrid General ^SMSI 8:00AM 904.86 - -1.20 - -0.13% Sweden Stockholm General ^SFOG 9:18AM 3665.72 - -19.79 - -0.54% Switzerland Swiss Market ^SSMI 9:38AM 8054.1 +55.4 +0.69% Turkey ISE National-100 ^XU100 12:00PM 4276.28 - -49.83 - -1.15% Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 06:54:48 -0700 (PDT) From: TM Subject: [CANSLIM] Noncanslim A bright spot IBD SOXX is up now; yesterday WON Elect:semicond- asmlf atrm qsys trkn had good days. Don't know their stats. Read an interview with a fund manager in IBD (don't remember who) a few days ago. He said he had money coming in, had to have a place for it. TM _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 14:00:44 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" On Mon, 27 Jul 1998 22:26:49 -0500, you wrote: :I have been following many of the indices as well as my stocks of :late, and am convinced that the recent upmove is a big cap phenomenon. : :Why (besides others have said so)? : :1. Take a look at a chart of the Russell 2000 (RUT) - the index was=20 : down 1% today - and is back where it was in February. : :2. Take a look at a chart of the Wilshire Small Caps (WSX) - same : phenomenon. : :3. Now... take a look at the S&P 500 (SPX) - an up day today - : about 15% higher than in February. =20 : :4. Look at the new highs/new lows or the A/D line in IBD. More : stocks have been down than up for the better part of the : last 4 months except for a brief period about 1-2 weeks ago. : :5. Inflows to big cap funds and index funds continue to be large. : 401Ks by major corporations are seeing continued investment : which go into these funds. : :BUT, the MARKET, "M" is not in an uptrend; it did not rebound :today. The major indices on the big cap stocks did rebound :today, and have been in a general uptrend. =20 : :Why is O'Neil suddenly mentioning big caps when he has not been :high on them before? Because they are outperforming. =20 : :My take on it all, : :Dave C. Dave, This has been going on for quite some time now. The broader market hasn't been participating. What does this mean? Can this continue indifinitely? Anybody know? Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 08:25:21 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] World Markets question From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Why do I not see the British market at this address: > http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u Good question, but I've never seen it there. For some reason they don't pick up the quote. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 98 10:08:400 -0500 From: Jeffry White Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" The handwringing crowd is back out on the point: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980728/summer_ral_1.html Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 07:52:52 PDT From: "Charles Morgan" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] World Markets question >From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: [CANSLIM] World Markets question >Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 13:41:41 GMT >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >Why do I not see the British market at this address: >http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u > You can find the FTSE at http://finance.yahoo.co.uk/. Hpoefully this will help you. Chuck ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 17:10:53 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] AZPN - Why diversify your portfolio? I'm not knowledgeable about AZPN, but I remember comming across it in the software group when I bought CPWR. And I remember it was reasonably CANSLIM. Just imaging having bought this stock a while ago and having your sell stop hit this morning. Yesterday it was approx 48, it opened at about 28. Good reason to spread your risk and diversify. (Funny that drops like this don't happen quite as often with the super-gorilla's like MSFT, DELL, LU, CSCO, etc. ;^) Software developer Aspen Technology (AZPN) shares plunged 43 percent after warning it expects to earn 30 cents a share in its fourth quarter. Analysts projected earnings of 45 cents a share. Shares fell 20 1/2 to 27 3/4. - -- Johan Van Houtven - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 08:47:57 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" <> No, nobody knows, though it depends on what you mean by "indefinitely". HTMMIS is much like the Bible in that one can find a quote in there to support almost any take on the market. This is at least in part because, like the Bible, there are contradictions. There's so much good information in HTMMIS that all I can suggest is that everyone reread it, or at least Parts One and Three. Seemingly, O'N tries to quantify and mechanize something that's very difficult to quantify and mechanize. Perhaps this is necessary for people new to CS. But each time I reread the book, I get the distinct impression that, at bottom, what O'N is really trying to do is encourage the investor to take in a lot of information and try to recreate it into an overall objective, rational view of the market. Based on what I've read, finding market tops includes not only counting days and analyzing volume and price relationships, but also factoring in new highs and new lows, the ratio of advancers to decliners, various sentiment measures, etc. And of course the charts. But O'N is adamant that one pay attention only to what the market is saying, not what the CNBC or Moneyline or whatever pundits or gurus or analysts or strategists or whoever have to say about it. Paying too much attention to the latter (or any attention at all) can lead to daily swings between euphoria and despair, and what O'N tries to do is get the investor to move past all that and become his own guru. Therefore, I don't believe it's anti-CANSLIM to incorporate all these elements into one's take on the market. As O'N says, "a peculiar tendency during a bear market [or correction?] is for certain leading stocks to resist the decline and hold up in price, creating the impression of true strength. This is almost always false and simply postpones the inevitable collapse. When they raid the house, they usually get everyone." This is not to say that we're in big trouble and it's all going to come crashing down tomorrow. But neither is it to say that as long as the leaders are OK, then so is everything else. What's important, IMO, is to incorporate all of this into one's view so that he doesn't get caught unprepared. Which is why I encourage the development of multiple scenarios rather than just one--no matter what happens, one is prepared. Sperandeo makes a large point about playing probabilities. When decliners outnumber advancers two or three or four to one, what are the probabilities that one's best chances of success are on the long side? It depends on the stock, of course, and the timeframe. But at some point one must ask himself honestly just how firmly he believes in the proposition that the market must be behind him in order for him to succeed. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 98 11:17:400 -0500 From: Jeffry White Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson ===== Original Message from canslim@lists.xmission.com at 7/27/98 7:14 pm >Jeffry wrote: > > "Frequently, the first stock market rally during a beginning downtrend >will fail abruptly. After a resurgence, the second day will open >strongly. But toward the end of the day, the market will suddenly >close down. The abrupt failure of the market to follow through on its >first recovery attempt should be met by further selling on your part. > > >HTMMIS, 2d Ed. at 50-51." >-------------------------------- > >This would seem to support what I wrote to you earlier- that today's rally >should continue in the morning and curtail later in the afternoon. Correct? > >Nelson E. Timken >http://onelist.com/subscribe.cgi/investing-list > > > >- > > > >Message Forwarded to: mail@uucp {postwhit@sover.net} ===== Comments by JWHITE@TJOSLIN (Jeffry White) at 7/28/98 11:17 am How goes the "plan", Nelson? - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 10:41:46 -0600 From: "Jeff Salisbury" Subject: [CANSLIM] He that wrestles with us... Hey everyone, As you all know, there has been some bickering in our little family during the past few months. It seemed to reach a peak about a month ago, then subside. The last few days I've seen a small resurgence. Here is a quote that I really like -- especially in the context of our canslim group: He that wrestles with us strengthens our nerves and sharpens our skill. Our antagonist in our helper. --Edmund Burke {1729-1797 British Political Writer and Statesman} Having said that, I just want to provide a gentle reminder that rudeness, personal attacks, etc. are never appropriate in our group. Anyone who persists in such garbage will be restricted or banned. However, vigorous debates about facts, points of view, etc. are always welcomed. Best Regards, Jeff - canslim admin/owner - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 98 13:05:400 -0500 From: Jeffry White Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" Db wrote: >HTMMIS is much like the Bible in that one can find a quote in there to >support almost any take on the market. This is at least in part >because, like the Bible, there are contradictions. There's so much >good information in HTMMIS that all I can suggest is that everyone >reread it, or at least Parts One and Three. So, Db, it would seem, there are some who simply have a knack for pulling quotes out of books that suit their version of events (albeit often before the events actually unfold). Then, at the other end of the spectrum, there are those who simply understand it all, but never find the need or desire to comment specifically on their version of events. Perhaps, somewhere in between, then, there are those who have never worked hard enough to understand the words in the books, or have too much cluttering up their heads to hear the "word" of the "M", that they take some humbrage at those who beeeleeeeve in the words as written? "Hey Rocky, watch me pull this rabbit out of my hat!!" Whoops, wrong book. Jeffry P.S.: Jeff Salisbury, I just recieved your note regarding "rudeness, personal attacks, etc." Please define your terms so that those of us who seemingly are the target of your cautionary words might have some guidance in what is and is not acceptable in this group. Thanks. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 17:07:31 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] He that wrestles with us... On Tue, 28 Jul 1998 10:41:46 -0600, you wrote: :Hey everyone, : :As you all know, there has been some bickering in our little family = during :the past few months. It seemed to reach a peak about a month ago, then :subside. The last few days I've seen a small resurgence. Here is a = quote :that I really like -- especially in the context of our canslim group: : : He that wrestles with us strengthens our nerves and : sharpens our skill. Our antagonist in our helper. : : --Edmund Burke {1729-1797 British Political Writer and Statesman} : :Having said that, I just want to provide a gentle reminder that = rudeness, :personal attacks, etc. are never appropriate in our group. Anyone who :persists in such garbage will be restricted or banned. However, = vigorous :debates about facts, points of view, etc. are always welcomed. : :Best Regards, : :Jeff - canslim admin/owner To quote Wm Blake: "Without opposites is no progression." "Opposition is true friendship." Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 13:49:41 -0700 (PDT) From: TM Subject: [CANSLIM] Warrants On clearstation, I see the heaviest volume was on warrants. WON p. 122 "the right to buy so many shares of a company's common stock at a specific price..." Obviously, I'm not buying. But what is the market telling me? TM _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 16:56:46 -0400 From: "Nelson E. Timken, Esq." Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson It goes poorly- no chance to recoup prior to the -200 drop...I am just holding. Nelson - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Jeffry White Sent: Monday, July 27, 1998 8:00 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" - Nelson ===== Original Message from canslim@lists.xmission.com at 7/27/98 7:14 pm >Jeffry wrote: > > "Frequently, the first stock market rally during a beginning downtrend >will fail abruptly. After a resurgence, the second day will open >strongly. But toward the end of the day, the market will suddenly >close down. The abrupt failure of the market to follow through on its >first recovery attempt should be met by further selling on your part. > > >HTMMIS, 2d Ed. at 50-51." >-------------------------------- > >This would seem to support what I wrote to you earlier- that today's rally >should continue in the morning and curtail later in the afternoon. Correct? > >Nelson E. Timken >http://onelist.com/subscribe.cgi/investing-list > > > >- > > > >Message Forwarded to: mail@uucp {postwhit@sover.net} ===== Comments by JWHITE@TJOSLIN (Jeffry White) at 7/28/98 11:17 am How goes the "plan", Nelson? - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 17:04:21 -0400 From: Joan Sherman Subject: [CANSLIM] Need book name Someone posted the name of a book about market psychology recently. Would you mind posting that information again, please. Thanks, Joan Sherman - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 17:16:08 -0400 From: Robert Bomba <73223.2767@compuserve.com> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Need book name >> Someone posted the name of a book about market psychology recently. << The only one that I liked was Dr. Elder's "Trading for a living" Bob - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 17:28:57 -0400 From: Kim Hinshaw <70264.1444@compuserve.com> Subject: [CANSLIM] Introduction Dear Group, I am an intermediate term lurker coming out of hiding. My name is Kim Hinshaw, age 37, married with no kids. My day, night, and other odd hours job, is flying airplanes for Northwest airlines which I have been doing for 14 years. This is what I will call my third assault on the markets, and it started about 6 months ago. I started with looking at an undervalued stock strategy and quickly grew disillusioned with it. My only regret is that I did not look at how the examples in the book worked out before I read the whole thing, as this would of saved wasted time. I had read O Neil's book in the past, and had tucked away in my memory bank a favorable impression. I reread it, and unlike the previously mentioned book, the impression lasted. I will back up and give a brief summary of assault one and two. I do remember my mothers refrain- If at first you don't succeed try try again. So I am. Because of assault one, it was very easy for me to understand Chapter 20 in HTMMIS. I had a personal experience with most of the 18 common mistakes most investors make. In a nut shell: young, in a hurry and not enough respect for the market. Rapidly decided very short term trading was the way to go and was humbled quickly. Another big error was that I chased every approach, idea, software, publication etc. etc. that I came across. Sucker for everything but black boxes. Actually I think I spent more on the above then I actually lost trading. Thank goodness for not having much money at the time, so losses were limited by that fact alone. Notes to post on my monitor from this. 1. Be humble, the markets are difficult and must be respected. 2. Be patient. 3. Find a good approach and stick with it. 4. Limit losses. 5. Have a money management plan. I was cured for a while, and then 5 years ago I was back. This time. I picked a newsletter that followed a mechanical trading system for Fidelity's sector funds. Trying to be smart I check it out thoroughly. Verified the past record myself. It was not a net loss but sure didn't keep up with the general market averages during the 3 years, due mostly to high transaction costs. Paid a lot of switching fees to Fidelity and did not even get a Christmas card. Posted notes for my monitor from this. 6. I am not convinced mechanical systems are feasible. 7. Make sure your approach does not have high slippage and transactions costs that are hard to overcome. This sounds like quite a tale of woe but all has not been loss. For the bulk of the above time, I have been what amounts to dollar cost averaging into my 401K account. Also had some stock forced on me in exchange for wage concessions when the LBO artists almost bankrupted Northwest. Much to my surprise this worked out well. All in all the bull market has been good to me. Now you are up to date to my current canslim days. Believe me, it was not easy to convince my husband that I should be trusted to invest any of our money once again, in fact that took about two months. I only have 2 canslim trades, both closed out at a small loss. I feel that I am really missing a piece of the puzzle, in not having a good way at looking at the group influence, so that is the thrust of my time at the present. Been waiting for the IBD industry group guide to arrive and reading all of Woodward materials. Hopefully some day I can add to my monitor notes- With discipline, focus, money management and a sound approach I can make money in the market. Time will tell as in all things. I would like to thank all of you who have taken the time to post and share your knowledge, questions, comments and answers. I have learned so much. I consider the information so valuable I have copied and pasted many notes to a trading journal. I am especially grateful to DB, and Tom Worley. Since I have been lurking, both at various times have made a point of not letting any post go unanswered and ignored. Definitely above and beyond the call of duty. A thank you also to Jeff S. who owns and runs the list for doing so. Sincerely, Kim Hinshaw - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 16:54:21 -0500 From: "Michael Ziegler" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Need book name Trading for a Living by Dr. Alexander Elder get it at http://www.elder.com Mike Z - -----Original Message----- From: Joan Sherman To: Canslim Date: Tuesday, July 28, 1998 4:04 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Need book name >Someone posted the name of a book about market psychology recently. >Would you mind posting that information again, please. Thanks, >Joan Sherman > > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 15:06:01 -0700 (PDT) From: rolatzi Subject: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM: Numerology and VIX As I pointed out the unusually low value of the VIX about a week or more ago (under 17), it has now jumped to intraday value of 27.89 with a close of 24.66. This high value may be significant as it is comparable to that attained near the end of April and the first third of June, both times associated with corrections in the market. The level of unease, however does not come close to thse of November and January when the VIX spiked up to 40 and 35, extremes in volatility. The other positive sign is that we are approaching the end of the month and the end of the week both of which are bulish for the market. From the last trading day plus the next four trading days of the following month the market is up 0.7% on average for the period compared with down for the rest of the month. Fridays are also up on average 0.12% (62% of the days are up) compared with Mondays which are down 0.18% (39.5% of the days are up). To follow this further, Aug is up 1.44% on average (not as good as July which is up 1.84% on average but better than September or October. Why do I do this and what relationship does it have to CANSLIM, only that I believe i playing the percentages and this represents another way to improve your odds. Ciao, rolatzi _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 17:52:39 -0400 From: Kim Hinshaw <70264.1444@compuserve.com> Subject: [CANSLIM] General Market Analysis I promise I will not always be this wordy. Actually it was this that caused me to come out of hiding and introduce myself. I had previously thought I was so new I did not have much of value to share. Last night I took DB's suggestion to analyze the markets and come up with a plan for the different possibilities. I sent the results to him privately asking him to look it over to see if it was reasonable which he kindly did. He though that it might benefit the group if I posted it. Below is my analysis with his comments inserted at the end. I know that breath and other factors must be taken into account and there is much more that could be added. Any further comments by anyone appreciated. Kim NYSE: Long term trend: Bullish Why: Long term trend line intact, 200 SMA up, interest rates and economic conditions good. What will change my mind. Breaking 200 day moving average, breaking multi year trend line, big change in economic conditions, interest rates and or inflation rise greatly. Intermediate term: Unsure, it is on brink of deciding. Why: Confusing signals, Trend line from Jan-Jun lows violated inter day but closed above it and it acted as support. Close right on 50 day EMA. Also right at trend line drawn from highs of recent flat base consolidation. 17EMA < 50EMA with 17 headed down and 50 flat. Retracement from recent high to June low slightly over 50% on closing basis. What will change my mind to bullish: Close above 50 day EMA on good volume and stay there the next day. Two converging trend lines right below close hold. Resistance at 580 then 586 broken strongly. (i.e. on volume greater then 30ADV). Yesterday's low holds. Weekly Macd Hist. tick ups and lines give buy signal. Weekly SlowStoch turns up. Daily Macd Hist. ticks up and gives buy. Daily Slow Stoch continues up and gives buy. If price continues up now I will be watching carefully as the old high is approached because of ominous possible bearish divergences on weekly macd and Slow Stoch and possible double top. Of the biggest volume days the last 2 months 4 have happened on price weakness (stealth distribution?) and this needs to change. What will change my mind to bearish: The big one is the support level of 562 at the bottom of the recent flat base is taken out decisively. Also the above bullish indicators not happening. Short term: Bearish Why: 17EMA headed down with 3,5, and 8 EMA below it, short steep trend line broken to downside on second highest volume day in two months. What will change mind. First resistance at 580 needs to be broken and short term ema's need to close above 17EMA. My plan for dealing with above: Buy no new stocks for now unless short term turns bullish and intermediate term shows bullish signs. If this happens looks into buying the big industry leaders with the canslim stuff except for Institutions under 30% and Supply under 30 million instead of the small pure canslim type stocks. If double top sets up at or about old high consider shorting market with SPY and maybe try a couple very small short positions of individual stocks. Move 401K money to money market. If bottom of recent flat base consolidation taken out same plan as above. Comments from DB about what I had written above. <> This particular line has only two points, though it may have three if this is an interim bottom. Suggest you go back to April '97 for longer-term view. <> One this is broken to the upside, it's utility is less. A more important line would be a line connecting the lows of the base. <> Decide also whether you'll be buying for the short or intermediate-term as that will determine your entry and exit points. <> I wouldn't even consider shorting until you've worked on the long side for a couple of years. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 23:31:45 EDT From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Need book name In a message dated 98-07-28 17:06:04 EDT, you write: << Someone posted the name of a book about market psychology recently. Would you mind posting that information again, please. Thanks, Joan Sherman >> Not sure what book was recommended but I can suggest two excellent books: The Discipled Trader by Mark Douglas The Inner Game of Trading by Robert Koppel DCSquires - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #343 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.