From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #344 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Thursday, July 30 1998 Volume 02 : Number 344 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Need book name Re: [CANSLIM] Need book name [CANSLIM] General Market Re: [CANSLIM] General Market Analysis [CANSLIM] Re: Inroduction [CANSLIM] Defining rudeness... Re: [CANSLIM] General Market Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Inroduction Re: [CANSLIM] General Market [CANSLIM] Book about psychology and the markets [CANSLIM] Only three free shares! Delete if you are uninterested!! [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM) Market ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 21:13:41 -0700 From: Dan Cash Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Need book name > > > > > << Someone posted the name of a book about market psychology recently. > Would you mind posting that information again, please. Thanks, > Joan Sherman >> This one was mentioned: "Extraordinary Delusions and the Madness of Crowds", by Charles Mackay - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 29 Jul 98 08:05:22 -0500 From: "Robert Gammon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Need book name Be aware that buying at Dr. Elder's www site means that you are directly paying him for the book, and spending about $20 more than what you will pay for the exact same book at www.amazon.com. He still gets payments from the publisher, just not as much money as he gets with his own direct sales. Robert On Tue, 28 Jul 1998 16:54:21 -0500, Michael Ziegler wrote: >Trading for a Living by Dr. Alexander Elder >get it at http://www.elder.com >Mike Z >-----Original Message----- >From: Joan Sherman >To: Canslim >Date: Tuesday, July 28, 1998 4:04 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Need book name > > >>Someone posted the name of a book about market psychology >recently. >>Would you mind posting that information again, please. Thanks, >>Joan Sherman >> >> >> >>- >> >> > > >- - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 22:42:49 -0400 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] General Market > Below is my analysis with his > comments inserted at the end. I know that breath and other factors must be > taken into account and there is much more that could be added. Any further > comments by anyone appreciated. Kim > Kim, It seems a solid analysis, with a plan I hope you can follow with discipline and objectivity. My comments stem from the latter of your statements quoted above, however. Your thoughtful comment that there is "much more that could be added" is the downfall of many who endeavor to listen to the CANSLIM discipline, in my opinion. Too many indicators, too many conflicts in the indicators and considerations, too much....much too much. May I suggest that WON's "M" would currently have most CANSLIM'ers almost completely in cash (if appropriately placed stops had not taken you out already) based upon the following: (1) the distribution day last Tuesday; (2) the extremely bullish sentiment as indicated in IBD last Thursday; (3) the narrowness of this upleg since the follow through days in late June (which has not been kind to pure CS); and (4) the "abrupt" rally failure today. The convergence of these objective facts should be all you need to determine the 2-3 times a year when a significant market turn is at hand (for either the short or long side of the trade). That is, unless you feel obliged to attribute the selloff today, (4), to Ms. Lewinsky or some other story the "heads" come up with. Granted, it carries neither the "rocket science" nor the seeming wizardry of the varied technical indicators upon which your analysis is based. But, those simple, objective facts should be sufficiently clear to a CANSLIM investor/trader/speculator that it's time to preserve capital for the next leg up. That new leg up will begin with similarly clear and objective facts which provide the maximum opportunity for increasing precious trading capital. These are the traditional CANSLIM "M" indicators, which is not to say those you've chose to utilize are inappropriate or invalid. I suspect your indicators find their origin in HGS/Woodward, but I've certainly never found them to be touted much by WON, and, in fact, I've never studied HGS/Woodward. Perhaps if I bothered to study them, they would provide some appeal. However, my fear is they would only serve to cloud my game. To date, I've found no need (although I do find indicators such as you've utilized helpful with entry and exit points of particular stocks). May I suggest that the more objective the indicators used, the more capable the trader of achieving the discipline you seek. I know there are those in this group who do not accept that the traditional indicators intended to place a CANSLIM'er in and out of the market are simple, but my endless rantings are intended to press that one point. It is that simple, provided you can clear the noise from your head, cast aside the news, the economic reports, the insecurity of needing that one last indicator to analyze, and on, and on, and on. There are many over the past year who have, in response to my tirades over Chapter 7, suggested that it's not that simple, or that they've never found these indicators to be reliable. I disagree, for me they have proved invaluable, profitable and more than adequate. Perhaps you and others will consider those indicators in your market analysis as you approach CANSLIM. Regards, and thanks for posting. Jeffry - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1998 11:05:32 -0400 From: Peter Newell Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] General Market Analysis My big question, bear markets seem to start when limited participation takes place which has only been true for last month this happened in 1972 and 1987 does anyone know of times when this was or was not true. I realize that in may take months for this to actually happen. > From: Kim Hinshaw <70264.1444@compuserve.com> > To: Canslim Group > Subject: [CANSLIM] General Market Analysis > Date: Tuesday, July 28, 1998 5:52 PM > > I promise I will not always be this wordy. > NYSE: > > Long term trend: Bullish > Why: Long term trend line intact, 200 SMA up, interest rates and economic > conditions good. > What will change my mind. Breaking 200 day moving average, breaking multi > year trend line, big change in economic conditions, interest rates and or > inflation rise greatly. Agree but consider this IBD says 38% of nyse stocks of over 200 DMA 75 NH 500+ NL A/D line broke support and went above > Intermediate: Unsure > What will change my mind to bullish: A small miracle, analysts a still extremely bullish on earnings and are starting to cut them. Need the A/d Line improving, Good NH/NL numbers, they never got back up to the levels of the last 3 runs of NH 500+ with NL >100 hmm they are the opposite > Short term: Bearish Completely agree. > My plan for dealing with above: > If double top sets up at or about old high consider shorting market with > SPY and maybe try a couple very small short positions of individual stocks. > Move 401K money to money market. If bottom of recent flat base > consolidation taken out same plan as above. > > < Buy no new stocks for now unless short term turns bullish and > intermediate > term shows bullish signs. If this happens looks into buying the big > industry leaders with the canslim stuff except for Institutions under > 30% > and Supply under 30 million instead of the small pure canslim type > stocks.>> > > Decide also whether you'll be buying for the short or > intermediate-term as that will determine your entry and exit points. > > < with > SPY and maybe try a couple very small short positions of individual > stocks. > Move 401K money to money market. If bottom of recent flat base > consolidation taken out same plan as above.>> > DB> I wouldn't even consider shorting until you've worked on the long side DB> for a couple of years. I'd say we had a double top already look at the 1987 charts. I'd agree with DB on not shorting or being very conservative with it. Peter Newell - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1998 10:04:02 -0500 (CDT) From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: Inroduction Dear Kim, Thanks for a great post. It always helps to hear other experiences because they just validate your own. Even though I am reaching my one year mark in investing, I feel it's been years in the sense that I have made a multitude of errors, and discovering aspects of my personality I didn't know existed such as lack of control, greed, impatience... I agree. Both Db and Tom have been instrumental in providing valuable insights into both the general market and specific stocks. Welcome into the active group! Look forward to your posts. Regards, Mary - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1998 09:09:30 -0600 From: "Jeff Salisbury" Subject: [CANSLIM] Defining rudeness... Jeffry White wrote: > P.S.: Jeff Salisbury, I just received your note regarding "rudeness, > personal attacks, etc." Please define your terms so that those of us > who seemingly are the target of your cautionary words might have some > guidance in what is and is not acceptable in this group. Thanks. Jeffry, I often implore my 6 and 4 year old boys to "Be nice to each other". The offending boy often replies: "But Dad, I didn't touch him", or "I didn't hit him", or "I didn't him". I tell them I don't care that you didn't to him. I want you to be nice to your brother. Although it may be difficult to define rudeness, "I know it when I see it" (Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart). However, in general, debate the facts and your opinions but don't personalize attacks. I work everyday with men and women of high intellect and strong, differing opinions who are courteous to each other, and feel genuine affection for the opposing party. Just do the same here and we'll all be fine... Jeff - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1998 19:43:19 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] General Market On Tue, 28 Jul 1998 22:42:49 -0400, you wrote: : :There are many over the past year who have, in response to my tirades :over Chapter 7, suggested that it's not that simple, or that they've :never found these indicators to be reliable. I disagree, for me they :have proved invaluable, profitable and more than adequate. Perhaps you :and others will consider those indicators in your market analysis as you :approach CANSLIM. : :Regards, and thanks for posting. : :Jeffry : Jeffry, You are to be congratulated.=20 In the words of Einstein, "Everything must be as simple as possible, but no more so." (It's not an exact quote, and the original may have been German, anyway). If the relatively simple method of determining "M" by WON works, why complicate things? That's not to say that Kim's usage of indicators isn't useful or great. But they are apparently not necessary as far as determining "M", and when to go to cash. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1998 19:42:39 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: Inroduction On Wed, 29 Jul 1998 10:04:02 -0500 (CDT), you wrote: :Dear Kim, : :Thanks for a great post. It always helps to hear other :experiences because they just validate your own. : :Even though I am reaching my one year mark in investing, :I feel it's been years in the sense that I have made :a multitude of errors, and discovering aspects of my :personality I didn't know existed such as lack of control, :greed, impatience... I think that equity trading can bring out some of the worst in people, certainly if circumstances are such that they can be made to be vulnerable in that regard. That is to say, some people who in the normal course of their lives may not suffer from abject and rueful misgivings about themselves may be tested by an adventure into stock trading. Hey, in the movie "Wall Street", a central character maintains that "greed is good". You can get a little twisted in this world. I just read H. D. Thoreau's "Life Without Principle", and he made it clear there that even in the *purer times* of the 19th century, the finer virtues were wanting.=20 Dan :Welcome into the active group! Look forward to your posts. : :Regards, :Mary musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1998 13:43:20 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] General Market <> The kind of analysis which Kim engaged in is, as you say, not necessary. However, there have been multiple distribution days and rally failures ever since the previous peak in April. By doing a more thorough analysis, Kim would have been in a position to take advantage of the most recent rally had she reached this level of competence at that time. Or she could have chosen to sit it out. But by focusing on market dynamics as they occur and by planning for a variety of contingencies, she's able to maintain what I consider to be a very clear-eyed and objective outlook on daily events. In this way she can make rational, disciplined choices. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1998 22:54:58 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Book about psychology and the markets The best book I have read about psychology and the markets is "Forecasting Financial Markets" by William F. Eng. "This insightful book helps you understand the powerful emotional forces which operate in financial markets, and the price patterns those forces produce." "A brilliant, original, insightful book on technical analysis... deserves to be read by every serious technical analyst." -Futures magazine. The book is about how crowd behaviour, makes stocks, futures, etc behave in certain ways. It explain why the rules of technical analysis exist. "Successful investing, depends one one's ability to stand aside from the crowd's influence as certain times." This book helped me a lot in that respect. "Trading for a living", by Elder is also quite good. The books have little to do with each other. I read William. F. Eng's book first and found Elder's book to be superficial compared to "ForeCasting Finacial Markets". I found is very fascinating to see that you can mathematically reconstruct the shape of price movements. (Of course IRL(in real life) the market is not acting purely mathematical, neither is it acting purely chaotic.) Recommend. Maybe I should also add that Eng's book is more demanding, as it goes much deeper that Elder's book. It is however very much worthwhile in my opinion. I bought Eng's book at Amazon.com. FWIW, Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1998 23:20:02 EDT From: Subject: [CANSLIM] Only three free shares! Delete if you are uninterested!! Subject: Free stock anyone?? follow the below instructions, but use me as your reference... I found out from a guy at work that there is a company that is soon going public called Travelzoo. One of their many web services is "Travelocity," which you might have used to compare airline fares online. To enhance Travelzoo's visibility, they're giving away 700,000 free shares of stock. Yahoo did the same thing when they went public (Yahoo closed Friday at$186.50). You can get 3 shares of Travelzoo right away and then 1 more for each person who uses you as a reference (up to 10 shares). Go to http://www.travelzoo.com/online.asp and click in the upper right corner "Want to become a co-owner" and keep clicking on "continue" until they prompt for your e-mail address. After supplying this, they will e-mail you a few minutes later with a PIN. Go back to their site follow the same instructions only instead of entering your name click on the line that says click here if you already have your pin number and enter the PIN. Here's where I come in. If you enter my email address,(sjs7b@worldnet.att.net) I'll get a another share. You may get a message saying to try again later because I think the word has gotten around quickly on this offer. Keep trying (before they run out). It worked. Good luck! - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 30 Jul 1998 19:10:59 +1200 From: "Dean Edwards" Subject: [CANSLIM] (CANSLIM) Market This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0046_01BDBBED.C9EC6D00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable The release of economic data will put the market to an acid test: On = Friday, the initial estimate of US gross domestic product will be = released. Analysts expect a decline in growth for the first time since = early '91.=20 Quoting Livermore: "Analyse in your own mind the effect, marketwise, = that a certain piece of news which has been made public may have in = relation to the market. Try to antipate the psychological effect of this = particular item on the mind of the public. To illustrate: after the = market has been in a definite trend for a given period, a bullish or = bearish piece of news may not have the slightest effect on the market. = If you believe it likely to have a definite bullish or bearish effect = market wise, don't trust your own opinion and back your judgement until = the action of the market itself confirms your opinion." There are a lot of "IFs" here. 1) US GDP has to come out as negative = first, as strongly suggested in the article above. Working for = Statistics NZ - my hunch tells me, that the analysts already know the = figures for GDP (this piece of important news) in advance. If my prediction is correct, the market should sell off on this piece of = bearish news. But if the market is healthy the bulls will "yawn" and = ignore it. Have to wait and watch how the market reacts first. I = shorted some of the internet group stocks, last week. Friday will be an = acid test for me, to see how the internet group reacts on this news.=20 I'm hoping it will break the camels back! Back to lurking. - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #344 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.