From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3452 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, July 28 2003 Volume 02 : Number 3452 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK Re: [CANSLIM] HITK Re: [CANSLIM] HITK Re: [CANSLIM] HITK Re: [CANSLIM] HITK ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2003 09:48:14 -0700 From: "DMC197807" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00DD_01C354ED.5D668CD0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable MessageGene, I understood that. However, I think it's hard/dangerous to trade = consistently (and safely) from signals generated by newsletters and = stock pickers, or black boxes or discussion threads. I assume you are = out of HITK at this point? My comments were and are limited to trying to grasp the total = risk-reward on the name as indicated by the chart. Still too risky for = me, maybe not for others. When the charts come into alignment, then = money is made more easily, although not without risk. I took $3+ out of HITK at the end of May by following my discipline (bot = 5/30 at 34.20, sold 6/5 at 37.47), and it was this experience which = caught my attention with your post. HITK may close this week higher or lower, and at that point it may still = not be a good speculation, for my money. Good luck, DMC ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Gene Ricci=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 9:32 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK DMC, if you'll go back to my original email you'll see that I was = making an observation ... and passing it on to potential holders of HITK = .... based on a buy signal from ChangeWave. 'If you still own HITK there may be a light in the tunnel.'=20 In the meantime I made 75 cents/share trading it this morning (going = long)... after the opening pullback... Gene ----- Original Message -----=20 From: DMC197807=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 11:01 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK Gene, Two thoughts come to mind. First is a ski area I frequent. Just = below the highest lift are some cliffs which are out of bounds by = regulation and also by dint of pure reason: they look like suicide. = However, on any thick powder day there are a number of youth with their = snowboards and skis doing the "extreme thing." For some reason only 2 = people have gotten killed there in my memory, and a few bad accidents, = but mostly these yahoos make it through. It doesn't mean it isn't an = absurd risk to take, but there you are. Is HITK still a falling knife, or is it safe to buy? =20 Second is: what is volume during normal trading and what is volume = during a selloff? Clearly HITK is in a selloff, so I like to look at = something like 10 day volume (or volume since the plunge) rather than = 60-day volume. Here the 60-day volume is 583,000, but the most recent = 8 days have coughed up about 10 million shares, or 1.25 million per day. = I was looking at HITK early today and was surprised that the first = hour, amateur hour, didn't produce more volume. It's now 2.5 hours into = the trading day and it's still at 330,000 shares. I think today is simply a pause on the way down. I have no money in = this name now and only look at it to determine when, on a trading basis, = the reward might outweigh the risk. That event might not happen for = several weeks and might take place at a higher price than today's (in = fact, could easily do so). Mostly I think of this endeavor as the opposite of even recreational = skiing. We want to find the easiest, most risk free way of having fun = (making $$), not the adrenaline rushed version. If this were a ski = slope, my scans would be scouting for not black diamond slopes or blue = slopes. Unlike skiing, here I'm on the hunt for easy green slopes and = even yellow bunny hop slopes. Good luck, DMC ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Gene Ricci=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 7:35 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK The power of the newsletter assumes control... up 6% and 1/3 of = the daily volume already. Gene ----- Original Message -----=20 From: DMC197807=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, July 26, 2003 10:35 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK Technically your risk/reward on this name would be skewed toward = risk at this point. The chart shows no stopping yet, volume is still = high and the daily patterns are bearish. The price dropped right = through the 200 day EMA (25.85), is below any support on the daily = (there looks like some support at $20 on the weekly). If $20 holds, = who's interested in buying for a quick off the bat 20% loss? I don't actually see why $20 should hold for more than a pause, = anyway. To me there's no sense in looking for "bad news," it's all in = the chart right now. JMHO,=20 DMC ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Gene Ricci=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, July 26, 2003 6:30 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] HITK If you still own HITK there may be a light in the tunnel. = Change Wave (Tobin Smith) sent an alert to his 300,000 (?) subscribers = to buy HITK on 7/25. Looking at the chart shows that the price dropped = down and stabilized at its 200-day moving average at $23.14 before = bouncing higher. It closed at $24.88 on 7/25. Other than a possible = shortfall because of seasonal cough medicine sales I couldn't find any = other bad news. Anyone know of any other issues? Thanks, Gene I was forwarded the following; A price under $25 is a great entry point for this dual generic/diabetes play -- forget the noise from the momentum buyers-turned-sellers. They were cleaned out with the huge = volume sales, so now it's time to build or add to your positions to = get to a $25 cost basis. I still think we can hold on for a $50 value = at the end of 2004 on $2 per share earnings in 2004. Let's lower the buy under for HITK to $25. - ------=_NextPart_000_00DD_01C354ED.5D668CD0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message
Gene,
 
I understood that.  However, I = think it's=20 hard/dangerous to trade consistently (and safely) from signals generated = by=20 newsletters and stock pickers, or black boxes or discussion = threads.  I=20 assume you are out of HITK at this point?
 
My comments were and are limited to = trying to grasp=20 the total risk-reward on the name as indicated by the chart.  Still = too=20 risky for me, maybe not for others.  When the charts come into = alignment,=20 then money is made more easily, although not without risk.
 
I took $3+ out of HITK at the end of = May by=20 following my discipline (bot 5/30 at 34.20, sold 6/5 at 37.47), and it = was this=20 experience which caught my attention with your post.
 
HITK may close this week higher or = lower, and at=20 that point it may still not be a good speculation, for my = money.
 
Good luck,
 
DMC
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Gene = Ricci
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=
Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 = 9:32 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = HITK

DMC, if you'll go back to my = original email=20 you'll see that I was making an observation ... and passing it on to = potential=20 holders of HITK .... based on a buy signal from=20 ChangeWave.
 
'If = you still own=20 HITK there may be a light in the tunnel.'=20
 
In the=20 meantime I made 75 cents/share trading it this morning (going long)... = after=20 the opening pullback...
 
Gene
 
 
 
 
 
 
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 DMC197807
Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 = 11:01=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = HITK

Gene,
 
Two thoughts come to mind.  = First is a ski=20 area I frequent.  Just below the highest lift are some cliffs = which are=20 out of bounds by regulation and also by dint of pure reason:  = they look=20 like suicide.  However, on any thick powder day there are a = number of=20 youth with their snowboards and skis doing the "extreme = thing."  For=20 some reason only 2 people have gotten killed there in my memory, and = a few=20 bad accidents, but mostly these yahoos make it through.  It = doesn't=20 mean it isn't an absurd risk to take, but there you = are.
 
Is HITK still a falling knife, or = is it safe to=20 buy? 
 
Second is: what is volume during = normal trading=20 and what is volume during a selloff?  Clearly HITK is in a = selloff, so=20 I like to look at something like 10 day volume (or volume since the = plunge)=20 rather than 60-day volume.   Here the 60-day volume is = 583,000,=20 but the most recent 8 days have coughed up about 10 million shares, = or 1.25=20 million per day.  I was looking at HITK early today and was = surprised=20 that the first hour, amateur hour, didn't produce more volume.  = It's=20 now 2.5 hours into the trading day and it's still at 330,000=20 shares.
 
I think today is simply a pause on = the way=20 down.  I have no money in this name now and only look at it to=20 determine when, on a trading basis, the reward might outweigh the=20 risk.  That event might not happen for several weeks and might = take=20 place at a higher price than today's (in fact, could easily do=20 so).
 
Mostly I think of this endeavor as = the opposite=20 of even recreational skiing.  We want to find the easiest, most = risk=20 free way of having fun (making $$), not the adrenaline rushed = version. =20 If this were a ski slope, my scans would be scouting for not black = diamond=20 slopes or blue slopes.  Unlike skiing, here I'm on the = hunt for=20 easy green slopes and even yellow bunny hop slopes.
 
Good luck,
 
DMC
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Gene = Ricci=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 = 7:35=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = HITK

The power of the newsletter = assumes=20 control... up 6% and 1/3 of the daily volume already.
 
Gene
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 DMC197807
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Saturday, July 26, = 2003 10:35=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = HITK

Technically your risk/reward on = this name=20 would be skewed toward risk at this point.  The chart shows = no=20 stopping yet, volume is still high and the daily patterns are=20 bearish.  The price dropped right through the 200 day EMA = (25.85),=20 is below any support on the daily (there looks like some support = at $20=20 on the weekly).  If $20 holds, who's interested in buying = for a=20 quick off the bat 20% loss?
 
I don't actually see why $20 = should hold=20 for more than a pause, anyway.  To me there's no sense in = looking=20 for "bad news," it's all in the chart right now.
 
JMHO,
 
DMC
 
 
 
----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 Gene Ricci=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20
Sent: Saturday, July = 26, 2003=20 6:30 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] = HITK

If you still own HITK there may be a light in the = tunnel.=20 Change Wave (Tobin Smith) sent an alert to his = 300,000 (?)=20 subscribers to buy HITK on 7/25. Looking at the chart shows = that the=20 price dropped down and stabilized at its 200-day moving = average=20 at $23.14 before bouncing higher. It closed at $24.88 on = 7/25.=20 Other than a possible shortfall  because of seasonal = cough=20 medicine sales I couldn't find any other bad news. Anyone know = of any=20 other issues?
 
Thanks,
Gene
 
I was forwarded the = following;
 
A price under $25 is = a great=20 entry point for this dual
generic/diabetes play -- forget = the noise=20 from the momentum
buyers-turned-sellers. They were cleaned = out with=20 the huge volume
sales, so now it's time to build or add to = your=20 positions to get to
a $25 cost basis. I still think we can = hold on=20 for a $50 value at
the end of 2004 on $2 per share earnings = in=20 2004.

Let's lower the buy under for HITK to=20 $25.
 
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_00DD_01C354ED.5D668CD0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2003 12:01:23 -0500 From: "Gene Ricci" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0086_01C354FF.F72BEAB0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable MessageDMC, yes... made means closed transaction....=20 Thanks for sharing your thoughts on HITK. Gene I assume you are out of HITK at this point? - ------=_NextPart_000_0086_01C354FF.F72BEAB0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message
DMC, yes... made means closed = transaction....=20
 
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on=20 HITK.
 
Gene
  I = assume you are=20 out of HITK at this point?
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0086_01C354FF.F72BEAB0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2003 10:19:27 -0700 (PDT) From: Fanus Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK I haven't look at the CANSLIM characteristics, but risk/reward look pretty good to me. If one trade it as a bounce off the 200DMA, then your stop can be just below it. Say around 23.00. You could have entered around 25.30 this morning, risking 2.30. If I was trading it, I would expect it to possibly stall at resistance around 35 to 40 which would be my profit target. A profit target of about 9.7 to 14.7. Risking 2.3 to get 9.7 is a risk/reward ratio of 1/4.2. Risking 1 dollar to make 4.2. Good enough for me. You mentioned that you bought HITK at 5/30/03 at 34.20. From my side, I do not see significant support close by, or a logical place to put a stop loss other than the 50DMA which were at 30.74 on that date. A risk of 3.46. You sold on 6/5 at 37.47; a profit of 3.27. So you risk 3.46 to make 3.27, a risk/reward ratio of 1/0.95. Risking 1 dollar to make 0.95. In my books, an entry now is much less risky than your entry on 5/30. Regards - - Fanus - --- DMC197807 wrote: > MessageGene, > > I understood that. However, I think it's > hard/dangerous to trade consistently (and safely) > from signals generated by newsletters and stock > pickers, or black boxes or discussion threads. I > assume you are out of HITK at this point? > > My comments were and are limited to trying to grasp > the total risk-reward on the name as indicated by > the chart. Still too risky for me, maybe not for > others. When the charts come into alignment, then > money is made more easily, although not without > risk. > > I took $3+ out of HITK at the end of May by > following my discipline (bot 5/30 at 34.20, sold 6/5 > at 37.47), and it was this experience which caught > my attention with your post. > > HITK may close this week higher or lower, and at > that point it may still not be a good speculation, > for my money. > > Good luck, > > DMC > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Gene Ricci > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 9:32 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK > > > DMC, if you'll go back to my original email you'll > see that I was making an observation ... and passing > it on to potential holders of HITK .... based on a > buy signal from ChangeWave. > > 'If you still own HITK there may be a light in the > tunnel.' > > In the meantime I made 75 cents/share trading it > this morning (going long)... after the opening > pullback... > > Gene > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: DMC197807 > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 11:01 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK > > > Gene, > > Two thoughts come to mind. First is a ski area > I frequent. Just below the highest lift are some > cliffs which are out of bounds by regulation and > also by dint of pure reason: they look like > suicide. However, on any thick powder day there are > a number of youth with their snowboards and skis > doing the "extreme thing." For some reason only 2 > people have gotten killed there in my memory, and a > few bad accidents, but mostly these yahoos make it > through. It doesn't mean it isn't an absurd risk to > take, but there you are. > > Is HITK still a falling knife, or is it safe to > buy? > > Second is: what is volume during normal trading > and what is volume during a selloff? Clearly HITK > is in a selloff, so I like to look at something like > 10 day volume (or volume since the plunge) rather > than 60-day volume. Here the 60-day volume is > 583,000, but the most recent 8 days have coughed up > about 10 million shares, or 1.25 million per day. I > was looking at HITK early today and was surprised > that the first hour, amateur hour, didn't produce > more volume. It's now 2.5 hours into the trading > day and it's still at 330,000 shares. > > I think today is simply a pause on the way down. > I have no money in this name now and only look at > it to determine when, on a trading basis, the reward > might outweigh the risk. That event might not > happen for several weeks and might take place at a > higher price than today's (in fact, could easily do > so). > > Mostly I think of this endeavor as the opposite > of even recreational skiing. We want to find the > easiest, most risk free way of having fun (making > $$), not the adrenaline rushed version. If this > were a ski slope, my scans would be scouting for not > black diamond slopes or blue slopes. Unlike skiing, > here I'm on the hunt for easy green slopes and even > yellow bunny hop slopes. > > Good luck, > > DMC > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Gene Ricci > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 7:35 AM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK > > > The power of the newsletter assumes control... > up 6% and 1/3 of the daily volume already. > > Gene > ----- Original Message ----- > From: DMC197807 > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Saturday, July 26, 2003 10:35 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK > > > Technically your risk/reward on this name > would be skewed toward risk at this point. The > chart shows no stopping yet, volume is still high > and the daily patterns are bearish. The price > dropped right through the 200 day EMA (25.85), is > below any support on the daily (there looks like > some support at $20 on the weekly). If $20 holds, > who's interested in buying for a quick off the bat > 20% loss? > > I don't actually see why $20 should hold for > more than a pause, anyway. To me there's no sense > in looking for "bad news," it's all in the chart > right now. > > JMHO, > > DMC > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Gene Ricci > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Saturday, July 26, 2003 6:30 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] HITK > > > If you still own HITK there may be a light > in the tunnel. Change Wave (Tobin Smith) sent an > alert to his 300,000 (?) subscribers to buy HITK on > 7/25. Looking at the chart shows that the price > dropped down and stabilized at its 200-day moving > average at $23.14 before bouncing higher. It closed > at $24.88 on 7/25. Other than a possible shortfall > because of seasonal cough medicine sales I couldn't > find any other bad news. Anyone know of any other > issues? > > Thanks, > Gene > > I was forwarded the following; > > A price under $25 is a great entry point > for this dual > generic/diabetes play -- forget the noise > from the momentum > buyers-turned-sellers. They were cleaned > out with the huge volume > sales, so now it's time to build or add to > your positions to get to > a $25 cost basis. I still think we can > hold on for a $50 value at > the end of 2004 on $2 per share earnings > in 2004. > > Let's lower the buy under for HITK to $25. > > > __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free, easy-to-use web site design software http://sitebuilder.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2003 10:35:01 -0700 From: "DMC197807" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0156_01C354F3.E6B518C0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable MessagePete, I'm always curious when someone mentions a pivot point. Where is the = pivot point you are referring to? Good risk/reward will depend on your time frame. The volatility is in = this stock now and it could easily swing 6-10% on any given day in = either direction. It's ATR is now a whopping 3.23, or 12% of the = current stock price. Let's discount that by a third just because of the = recent plunge and you still have an ATR at 8% of the stock's price. So if you want to trade it intraday and you can buy low and sell high, = it can be attractive. If you're on the wrong side of the swing, though, = it can be painful. What's interesting about the chart to me is you look = at a weekly and there appears to be support just below $20, but you look = at the daily and it's not there. As to volume, Gene thought volume was high and you think it's drying up. = Who's right? I dunno, my guess is you are, but I think you're drawing = the wrong conclusion from the volume. The stock is trying to rally = above the 200 ema today on falling volume; I think that's bearish short = term for this stock. If it were rallying hard on a volume spike that = would mean people were queueing up to buy the stock. I don't think = that's happening. I think a downward trend with falling volume = indicates more potential downside. I'm looking to buy it when it has little chance of falling further and = very good chances of rising higher. Here I think the risk reward is 3-1 = it goes down below 20, 5-1 it goes back to support at 15; 5-1 it rises = from here to 31 and climbs, and 15-1 it rises above 36. JMHO, DMC ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Pete=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 9:31 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK Obviously, the chart looks bad. However it does appear it could = bounce of the previous pivot point. With todays's gap and down volume = drying up so my question would be how to set up a good risk/reward = ratio.=20 I'm having a hard time finding fundies on this but at first glance it = looks they are having a little deceleration in earning/revenue with = little analyst coverage, could check funds on morningstar.com. Not sure = of competition. - ------=_NextPart_000_0156_01C354F3.E6B518C0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message
Pete,
 
I'm always curious when someone = mentions a pivot=20 point.  Where is the pivot point you are referring to?
 
Good risk/reward will depend on your = time=20 frame.  The volatility is in this stock now and it could easily = swing 6-10%=20 on any given day in either direction.  It's ATR is now a whopping = 3.23, or=20 12% of the current stock price.  Let's discount that by a third = just=20 because of the recent plunge and you still have an ATR at 8% of the = stock's=20 price.
 
So if you want to trade it intraday and = you can buy=20 low and sell high, it can be attractive.  If you're on the wrong = side of=20 the swing, though, it can be painful.  What's interesting about the = chart=20 to me is you look at a weekly and there appears to be support just below = $20,=20 but you look at the daily and it's not there.
 
As to volume, Gene thought volume was = high and you=20 think it's drying up.  Who's right?  I dunno, my guess is you = are, but=20 I think you're drawing the wrong conclusion from the volume.  The = stock is=20 trying to rally above the 200 ema today on falling volume; I think = that's=20 bearish short term for this stock.  If it were rallying hard on a = volume=20 spike that would mean people were queueing up to buy the stock.  I = don't=20 think that's happening.  I think a downward trend with falling = volume=20 indicates more potential downside.
 
I'm looking to buy it when it has = little chance of=20 falling further and very good chances of rising higher.  Here I = think the=20 risk reward is 3-1 it goes down below 20, 5-1 it goes back to support at = 15; 5-1=20 it rises from here to 31 and climbs, and 15-1 it rises above = 36.
 
JMHO,
 
DMC
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Pete
Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 = 9:31 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = HITK

Obviously, the chart looks bad.  = However it=20 does appear it could bounce of the previous pivot point.  With = todays's=20 gap and down volume drying up so my question would be how to set up a = good=20 risk/reward ratio.
 
I'm having a hard time finding = fundies on this=20 but at first glance it looks they are having a little deceleration in=20 earning/revenue with little analyst coverage, could check funds on=20 morningstar.com.  Not sure of competition.
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0156_01C354F3.E6B518C0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2003 13:01:35 -0500 From: "Gene Ricci" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0205_01C35508.602D59B0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable MessageDMC,=20 I didn't say that the volume was high... I said "The power of the = newsletter assumes control... up 6% and 1/3 of the daily volume = already." this was at 9.30 am. I wonder what will happen if it breaks $26.70 with some amount of = volume? Gene ----- Original Message -----=20 From: DMC197807=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 12:35 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK Pete, I'm always curious when someone mentions a pivot point. Where is the = pivot point you are referring to? Good risk/reward will depend on your time frame. The volatility is in = this stock now and it could easily swing 6-10% on any given day in = either direction. It's ATR is now a whopping 3.23, or 12% of the = current stock price. Let's discount that by a third just because of the = recent plunge and you still have an ATR at 8% of the stock's price. So if you want to trade it intraday and you can buy low and sell high, = it can be attractive. If you're on the wrong side of the swing, though, = it can be painful. What's interesting about the chart to me is you look = at a weekly and there appears to be support just below $20, but you look = at the daily and it's not there. As to volume, Gene thought volume was high and you think it's drying = up. Who's right? I dunno, my guess is you are, but I think you're = drawing the wrong conclusion from the volume. The stock is trying to = rally above the 200 ema today on falling volume; I think that's bearish = short term for this stock. If it were rallying hard on a volume spike = that would mean people were queueing up to buy the stock. I don't think = that's happening. I think a downward trend with falling volume = indicates more potential downside. I'm looking to buy it when it has little chance of falling further and = very good chances of rising higher. Here I think the risk reward is 3-1 = it goes down below 20, 5-1 it goes back to support at 15; 5-1 it rises = from here to 31 and climbs, and 15-1 it rises above 36. JMHO, DMC ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Pete=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 9:31 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HITK Obviously, the chart looks bad. However it does appear it could = bounce of the previous pivot point. With todays's gap and down volume = drying up so my question would be how to set up a good risk/reward = ratio.=20 I'm having a hard time finding fundies on this but at first glance = it looks they are having a little deceleration in earning/revenue with = little analyst coverage, could check funds on morningstar.com. Not sure = of competition. - ------=_NextPart_000_0205_01C35508.602D59B0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message
DMC,
 
I didn't say that the volume was = high... I said=20 "The power of the newsletter assumes control... up 6% and 1/3 of the = daily=20 volume already." this was at 9.30 am.
 
I wonder what will happen if it breaks = $26.70=20 with some amount of volume?
Gene
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 DMC197807
Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 = 12:35=20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = HITK

Pete,
 
I'm always curious when someone = mentions a pivot=20 point.  Where is the pivot point you are referring = to?
 
Good risk/reward will depend on your = time=20 frame.  The volatility is in this stock now and it could easily = swing=20 6-10% on any given day in either direction.  It's ATR is now a = whopping=20 3.23, or 12% of the current stock price.  Let's discount that by = a third=20 just because of the recent plunge and you still have an ATR at 8% of = the=20 stock's price.
 
So if you want to trade it intraday = and you can=20 buy low and sell high, it can be attractive.  If you're on the = wrong side=20 of the swing, though, it can be painful.  What's interesting = about the=20 chart to me is you look at a weekly and there appears to be support = just below=20 $20, but you look at the daily and it's not there.
 
As to volume, Gene thought volume was = high and=20 you think it's drying up.  Who's right?  I dunno, my guess = is you=20 are, but I think you're drawing the wrong conclusion from the = volume. =20 The stock is trying to rally above the 200 ema today on falling = volume; I=20 think that's bearish short term for this stock.  If it were = rallying hard=20 on a volume spike that would mean people were queueing up to buy the=20 stock.  I don't think that's happening.  I think a downward = trend=20 with falling volume indicates more potential downside.
 
I'm looking to buy it when it has = little chance=20 of falling further and very good chances of rising higher.  Here = I think=20 the risk reward is 3-1 it goes down below 20, 5-1 it goes back to = support at=20 15; 5-1 it rises from here to 31 and climbs, and 15-1 it rises above=20 36.
 
JMHO,
 
DMC
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Pete
Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 = 9:31=20 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = HITK

Obviously, the chart looks = bad.  However=20 it does appear it could bounce of the previous pivot point.  = With=20 todays's gap and down volume drying up so my question would be how = to set up=20 a good risk/reward ratio.
 
I'm having a hard time finding = fundies on this=20 but at first glance it looks they are having a little deceleration = in=20 earning/revenue with little analyst coverage, could check funds on=20 morningstar.com.  Not sure of competition.
 
- ------=_NextPart_000_0205_01C35508.602D59B0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #3452 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.