From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #3500 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, August 11 2003 Volume 02 : Number 3500 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Accumulation / Distribution formula Re: [CANSLIM] M [CANSLIM] WON on Kudlow & Cramer tonight Re: [CANSLIM] Accumulation / Distribution formula [CANSLIM] Fw: M ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2003 13:16:53 -0500 From: "Gene Ricci" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Accumulation / Distribution formula This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_06F7_01C3600A.D5199970 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Peter, the folks at HGSI may be able to help you with a basic formula or = concept. Try Ron Brown: Ron@HighGrowthStock.com=20 Gene ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Peter Dugan=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 12:52 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Accumulation / Distribution formula Hi DMC, I'm writing my own program using Microsoft .NET environment, so it's not like TC2K or any other commercial software, I have my own data and I'm trying to write some code to get the A/D and some other info from my data. I have seen TC2K and I know that the BOP is the propietary A/D of Worden Brothers, they somehow had a formula to find the A/D, that's what I wanted to know. Peter. - ------=_NextPart_000_06F7_01C3600A.D5199970 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Peter, the folks at HGSI may be able = to help you=20 with a basic formula or concept. Try Ron Brown:

Ron@HighGrowthStock.com =

Gene

----- Original Message -----

From:=20 Peter Dugan=20

To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=

Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 = 12:52=20 PM

Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = Accumulation /=20 Distribution formula

Hi DMC,

I'm writing my own program using = Microsoft=20 .NET
environment, so it's not like TC2K or any other
commercial=20 software, I have my own data and I'm trying
to write some code to = get the=20 A/D and some other info
from my data.

I have seen TC2K and I = know=20 that the BOP is the
propietary A/D of Worden Brothers, they somehow = had=20 a
formula to find the A/D, that's what I wanted to=20 know.

Peter.

- ------=_NextPart_000_06F7_01C3600A.D5199970-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2003 11:49:38 -0700 From: "DMC197807" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00E6_01C35FFE.A4BA23A0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Gene, I loved your pictures, but for the life of me I can't figure out how to = use them. I'm trying, though. When a large % of the components of an = index are over the 50 ma line, then that's bearish (likely to fall?)? = So if these % have crested and are falling, then it's not quite as = bearish (likely to fall) as before? I'm trying to parse it out, but it may just be beyond me. I barely = grasp the BPNDX things (where you take the stacks of names doing a P&F = chart bullish move and make histograms out of them, look for the rise = and the cresting), so this may completely stump me. In something like $NYA50R, let me go back to simplicity itself. When I = look at the daily chart for the NYSE I see an index which has risen from = 4400 to 5740 in 3 months or so, and seems to be selling off (priceline). = The 2 month trend in the price is down, and the shorter moving averages = are cutting down through the longer ones (the 10 is below the 20, the 20 = is below the 30, and all three are heading down toward the 50 and the = 200. This is very bearish to me. The fact that 90% of the names used = to be above the 50 ma and now its only 50 seems to be counting the = angels on the head of a pin since the index seems to be heading south. = The number of names above or below the 50 ma would seem to be more = dependent on where the index has been than where it might be going. In = this case, since the index has gotten smashed, all its moving averages = are unusually low and therefore easy to cross in both directions. I = don't know if it's overbought or oversold, I just think it's going = anti-north in the near term. Adding a stochastic off these percentage charts is just putting salt in = my wounds. An oscillator to read what is essentially an oscillator? Now, there may be some salvation on the weekly chart, or maybe not. Am I missing something here? DMC - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Gene Ricci=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 11:06 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] M DMC, maybe the best position ahead of this FED meeting is probably no = position. There is no volume today..... May not make a billion shares = on either exchange at this rate! Check out the attached, the % over 50 DMA slide suggests we're not so = overbought as we hear. Gene ----- Original Message -----=20 From: DMC197807=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2003 6:00 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Mighty quiet out there. Further on the M! Thang, for those who are interested. Here is the = Naz 100 bullish percentage index: = http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPNDX,uu[h,a]dbclniay[de][= pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG Most recently it was higher than it's been in relevant history = (here, you can see it in the weekly): = http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPNDX,uu[h,a]wbclniay[df][= pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG Its recent rating of 91 is just astounding Here's the Dow: = http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$bpINDU,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df]= [pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG And the BP for the SPX: = http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPspx,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][= pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG We are definitely picking up a unform pattern of highs not seen = before (translation: everything is as bullish as possible, meaning = there's just one way to go. if you can't get more bullish, it's the = top). While you have the SPX chart open, just look at the 3 previous = spikes of 77 (April 2002), 59.80 (Aug 2002) and 68.40 (Dec. 2002), and = look back to what the SPX did after those moments: = http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$SPX,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][pc= 13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG 77 (April 2002)--SPX went from 1150 to 775 in 5 months. 59.80 (Aug 2002)--SPX went from 965 to 768 in 1.5 months 68.40 (Dec. 2002)--SPX went from 950 to 800 in 3 months. Anyway, it's all very interesting to look at, isn't it? Elliot = Wavers might see this overly bullish scenario as the setup for yet = another 3-count wave down. I don't really subscribe to EW stuff, but, = like FIbonacci and Gann, it's useful to at least think about. The last = EW pattern, if you believe this stuff, took the SPX down from 1500 to = 768, or a 50% retrace. This one, starting at 1015.40, could do some = similar damage and take us down to 565-775 over a 12 month period. Some = bearish reports I've see predict a SPX fall to the mid 600s before year = end. Otoh, we're in the 3rd political year, and 3 and 4 are notoriously = good. And, if you do a big Fibo study on the SPX since its base in 1995 = at about 440, we've already done a 38% retrace (back to the 62% line). = http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$spx,uu[h,a]mbclniay[pc13!c= 20!f][vc60][i][J15983278,Y]&pref=3DG All things to think about on a nice, calm, summer Sunday's evening. DMC ----- Original Message -----=20 From: WJH=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2003 10:00 AM Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Sounds interesting. From: DMC197807=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, August 09, 2003 6:41 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling Rolf & Mark, My vote (if I get a vote) is why not discuss how to use canslim = ideas to generate potential shorts? It's not like this little epistolary = group hasn't gone off the track since I've been here (about 10 trading = days), and it's not like it takes a lifetime to figure out Canslim in any = event. It's really rather simple, and with the help of computers it's almost = too easy. The real difficulty lies in disciplining oneself to limit or get = rid of longs in sideways and topping markets, and be willing to reenter = when the market's correction has ended and stocks are ready to rise = again. You can find the names of candidates very easily for a little coin paid = for a subscription to IBD and/or a subscription to canslim.net. For short discussions, let's just use the above referenced = subject line "Re: [CANSLIM] for Short Selling" and the purists like Fanus et al (so far it seems to be all = Fanus) can either eyeball them and delete them, or even program their = Outlook Express to pre-delete all messages on the peripheral topic. I think it would be helpful to understand what kind of screen = would generate the opposite of good longs in a bad market, if only for = academic, mind-sharpening purposes. After all, if in traditional canslim = technique you are looking for 1 or 2 stocks to buy per week in a good (M!) = market, then why not reverse the order in a bad (M!) market. With that in mind, I'd like to explore what kinds of things = people think would indicate a dangerous market, knowing in advance that = calling a top is one of the hardest things to do BUT that falls tend to be so = much more precipitous than climbs that there's gold in those hills if you = can time it right and buy a put to get into position. In any event, VTO has provided a very handy site with lots of = sentiment indicators: http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/cot.htm If you click on Sentiment and Bull/Bear you can see a very wide = gap between bullish and bearish advisors, the kind which indicates a = correction is coming. I'd say anytime you see a gap of 25% or more (with the = bulls on top) you are looking at a dangerous situation. The Put/Call ratio has been very low and is now climbing. Again = danger. The VIX has been unnaturally low for a long time, another coiled = spring. For COTS, I prefer to use the Quasimodos.com site: http://www.quasimodos.com/marketrider/technical.php The articles are interesting, and to get the reports and COTs = page, click here: http://www.quasimodos.com/marketrider/charts.php You can't paste the sites, but the first 3 on the right, for the = Dow, the Naz and the SPX have a very interesting graphic display of the = traders' positions. I don't know exactly what the timing is on these but = the smart money seems to be betting against this market continuing, while = the small speculators keep piling on the positions. Good bull markets = (like the one we had from March to June) often begin with very small bars. DMC - ------=_NextPart_000_00E6_01C35FFE.A4BA23A0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Gene,

I loved your pictures, but for the life = of me I=20 can't figure out how to use them. I'm trying, though. When a = large %=20 of the components of an index are over the 50 ma line, then that's = bearish=20 (likely to fall?)? So if these % have crested and are falling, = then it's=20 not quite as bearish (likely to fall) as before?

I'm trying to parse it out, but it may = just be=20 beyond me. I barely grasp the BPNDX things (where you take the = stacks of=20 names doing a P&F chart bullish move and make histograms out of = them, look=20 for the rise and the cresting), so this may completely stump = me.

In something like $NYA50R, let me go = back to=20 simplicity itself. When I look at the daily chart for the NYSE I = see an=20 index which has risen from 4400 to 5740 in 3 months or so, and seems to = be=20 selling off (priceline). The 2 month trend in the price is down, = and the=20 shorter moving averages are cutting down through the longer ones (the 10 = is=20 below the 20, the 20 is below the 30, and all three are heading down = toward the=20 50 and the 200. This is very bearish to me. The fact that = 90% of the=20 names used to be above the 50 ma and now its only 50 seems to be = counting the=20 angels on the head of a pin since the index seems to be heading = south. The=20 number of names above or below the 50 ma would seem to be more dependent = on=20 where the index has been than where it might be going. In this = case, since=20 the index has gotten smashed, all its moving averages are unusually low = and=20 therefore easy to cross in both directions. I don't know if it's=20 overbought or oversold, I just think it's going anti-north in the near=20 term.

Adding a stochastic off these = percentage charts is=20 just putting salt in my wounds. An oscillator to read what is = essentially=20 an oscillator?

Now, there may be some salvation on the = weekly=20 chart, or maybe not.

Am I missing something = here?

DMC

----- Original Message -----

From:=20 Gene = Ricci
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=

Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 = 11:06=20 AM

Subject: [CANSLIM] M

DMC, maybe the best = position ahead of=20 this FED meeting is probably no position. There is no volume=20 today..... May not make a billion shares on either exchange at = this=20 rate!

Check out the attached, the = % over 50=20 DMA slide suggests we're not so overbought as we hear.

Gene

----- Original Message -----
From:=20 DMC197807
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20

Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2003 = 6:00=20 PM

Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] for = Short=20 Selling

Mighty quiet out = there.

Further on the M! Thang, for those = who are=20 interested. Here is the Naz 100 bullish percentage = index:

http://stockcharts.com/def/ser= vlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPNDX,uu[h,a]dbclniay[de][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3D= G

Most recently it was higher than = it's been in=20 relevant history (here, you can see it in the weekly):

http://stockcharts.com/def/ser= vlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPNDX,uu[h,a]wbclniay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3D= G

Its recent rating of 91 is just=20 astounding

Here's the Dow:

http://stockcharts.com/def/se= rvlet/SC.web?c=3D$bpINDU,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pre= f=3DG

And the BP for the = SPX:

http://stockcharts.com/def/ser= vlet/SC.web?c=3D$BPspx,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3D= G

We are definitely picking up a = unform pattern=20 of highs not seen before (translation: everything is as = bullish as=20 possible, meaning there's just one way to go. if you can't get = more=20 bullish, it's the top).

While you have the SPX chart open, = just look at=20 the 3 previous spikes of 77 (April 2002), 59.80 (Aug 2002) and = 68.40=20 (Dec. 2002), and look back to what the SPX did after those=20 moments:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl= et/SC.web?c=3D$SPX,uu[h,a]dbclniay[df][pc13!c20!f][vc60][i]&pref=3DG<= /A>

77 (April 2002)--SPX went from 1150 = to 775 in 5=20 months.

59.80 (Aug 2002)--SPX went = from 965=20 to 768 in 1.5 months

68.40 (Dec. 2002)--SPX went = from 950=20 to 800 in 3 months.

Anyway, it's all very interesting = to look at,=20 isn't it? Elliot Wavers might see this overly bullish scenario = as the=20 setup for yet another 3-count wave down. I don't really = subscribe to=20 EW stuff, but, like FIbonacci and Gann, it's useful to at least = think=20 about. The last EW pattern, if you believe this stuff, took = the SPX=20 down from 1500 to 768, or a 50% retrace. This one, starting at = 1015.40, could do some similar damage and take us down to 565-775 = over a 12=20 month period. Some bearish reports I've see predict a SPX fall = to the=20 mid 600s before year end.

Otoh, we're in the 3rd political = year, and 3=20 and 4 are notoriously good. And, if you do a big Fibo study on = the SPX=20 since its base in 1995 at about 440, we've already done a 38% = retrace (back=20 to the 62% line).

http://stockcharts.com/= def/servlet/SC.web?c=3D$spx,uu[h,a]mbclniay[pc13!c20!f][vc60][i][J1598327= 8,Y]&pref=3DG

All things to think about on a = nice, calm,=20 summer Sunday's evening.

DMC

----- Original Message ----- =
From:=20 WJH
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20

Sent: Sunday, August 10, = 2003 10:00=20 AM

Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] for = Short=20 Selling

Sounds interesting.

From:=20 DMC197807
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com= =20

Sent: Saturday, August = 09, 2003=20 6:41 PM

Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] = for Short=20 Selling

Rolf & Mark,

My vote (if I get a vote) = is why=20 not discuss how to use canslim ideas to
generate potential=20 shorts? It's not like this little epistolary = group
hasn't gone=20 off the track since I've been here (about 10 trading days), = and
it's=20 not like it takes a lifetime to figure out Canslim in any = event. =20 It's
really rather simple, and with the help of computers = it's almost=20 too easy.
The real difficulty lies in disciplining oneself to = limit=20 or get rid of
longs in sideways and topping markets, and be = willing=20 to reenter when the
market's correction has ended and stocks = are=20 ready to rise again. You can
find the names of = candidates very=20 easily for a little coin paid for a
subscription to IBD = and/or a=20 subscription to canslim.net.

For short discussions, let's = just=20 use the above referenced subject line
"Re: [CANSLIM] for = Short=20 Selling"

and the purists like Fanus et al (so far it = seems to be=20 all Fanus) can
either eyeball them and delete them, or even = program=20 their Outlook Express
to pre-delete all messages on the = peripheral=20 topic.

I think it would be helpful to understand what = kind of=20 screen would generate
the opposite of good longs in a bad = market, if=20 only for academic,
mind-sharpening purposes. After all, = if in=20 traditional canslim technique
you are looking for 1 or 2 = stocks to=20 buy per week in a good (M!) market,
then why not reverse the = order in=20 a bad (M!) market.

With that in mind, I'd like to explore = what=20 kinds of things people think
would indicate a dangerous = market,=20 knowing in advance that calling a top is
one of the hardest = things to=20 do BUT that falls tend to be so much more
precipitous than = climbs=20 that there's gold in those hills if you can time it
right and = buy a=20 put to get into position.

In any event, VTO has provided = a very=20 handy site with lots of sentiment
indicators:

http://www.vtoreport.= com/sentiment/cot.htm

If=20 you click on Sentiment and Bull/Bear you can see a very wide gap = between
bullish and bearish advisors, the kind which = indicates a=20 correction is
coming. I'd say anytime you see a gap of = 25% or=20 more (with the bulls on
top) you are looking at a dangerous=20 situation.

The Put/Call ratio has been very low and is = now=20 climbing. Again danger.

The VIX has been = unnaturally low=20 for a long time, another coiled spring.

For COTS, I = prefer to use=20 the Quasimodos.com site:

http://www.q= uasimodos.com/marketrider/technical.php

The=20 articles are interesting, and to get the reports and COTs page,=20 click
here:

http://www.quas= imodos.com/marketrider/charts.php

You=20 can't paste the sites, but the first 3 on the right, for the = Dow,=20 the
Naz and the SPX have a very interesting graphic display = of the=20 traders'
positions. I don't know exactly what the = timing is on=20 these but the smart
money seems to be betting against this = market=20 continuing, while the small
speculators keep piling on the=20 positions. Good bull markets (like the one
we had from = March to=20 June) often begin with very small=20 = bars.

DMC

<= /BODY> - ------=_NextPart_000_00E6_01C35FFE.A4BA23A0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2003 11:50:51 -0700 From: "Tim Katona" Subject: [CANSLIM] WON on Kudlow & Cramer tonight This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0024_01C35FFE.D0727600 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit FYI, I just caught a CNBC commercial that WON will be on CNBC's Kudlow & Cramer tonight at 5 and 8PM EST. Tim - ------=_NextPart_000_0024_01C35FFE.D0727600 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

FYI, I just caught a CNBC = commercial that=20 WON will be on CNBC's Kudlow & Cramer tonight at 5 and 8PM=20 EST.

Tim

- ------=_NextPart_000_0024_01C35FFE.D0727600-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2003 15:15:53 -0500 From: "Lois" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Accumulation / Distribution formula Hi Peter, Good reading material on this site. http://www.muathe.com/ Lois - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Peter Dugan" To: Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 10:55 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Accumulation / Distribution formula > Hello all, > > I'm trying to write my own "stock screening" program. > I have Open,Close,High,Low,Volume and some data > related to earnings. > > Does anybody know a good formula to find/get the > Accumulation/Distribution for an individual stock? > WON has been mentioning his formula in HTMMIS as a > propietary formula so I guess I can't use the one he > is using or at least he won't let us know how he did > it. > > Thanks, > > Peter > > __________________________________ > Do you Yahoo!? > Yahoo! SiteBuilder - Free, easy-to-use web site design software > http://sitebuilder.yahoo.com > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2003 16:51:12 -0500 From: "Gene Ricci" Subject: [CANSLIM] Fw: M This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0161_01C36028.C582FC40 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable DMC,=20 The two charts show that the market internals are weaker than the major = indexes are showing (NDX and SPX have not pulled back very much = price-wise). That says the small caps are weaker than the large caps. = If the big caps start giving it up, the indexes will fall like a rock. = On the flip side, one could interpret them in a contrary manner ...... = a lot of stocks have pulled back significantly and a little good news = could very well push the indexes higher because they are no longer = overbought. These are just another way to get a look at the market. Looking at the February-March sell off in the indexes, the two charts = did not confirm the price action. That suggested a rally... the powerful = rise came in late March and these charts confirmed the strength of that = rally. Right now we have a divergence but we don't really have the = confirming price action. So we have to use them as a warning. It says = it is a dangerous time to be long, that's all. The stochastic indicator is on all of my charts (default setup)... Gene Gene, I loved your pictures, but for the life of me I can't figure out how = to use them. I'm trying, though. When a large % of the components of = an index are over the 50 ma line, then that's bearish (likely to fall?)? = So if these % have crested and are falling, then it's not quite as = bearish (likely to fall) as before? I'm trying to parse it out, but it may just be beyond me. I barely = grasp the BPNDX things (where you take the stacks of names doing a P&F = chart bullish move and make histograms out of them, look for the rise = and the cresting), so this may completely stump me. In something like $NYA50R, let me go back to simplicity itself. When = I look at the daily chart for the NYSE I see an index which has risen = from 4400 to 5740 in 3 months or so, and seems to be selling off = (priceline). The 2 month trend in the price is down, and the shorter = moving averages are cutting down through the longer ones (the 10 is = below the 20, the 20 is below the 30, and all three are heading down = toward the 50 and the 200. This is very bearish to me. The fact that = 90% of the names used to be above the 50 ma and now its only 50 seems to = be counting the angels on the head of a pin since the index seems to be = heading south. The number of names above or below the 50 ma would seem = to be more dependent on where the index has been than where it might be = going. In this case, since the index has gotten smashed, all its moving = averages are unusually low and therefore easy to cross in both = directions. I don't know if it's overbought or oversold, I just think = it's going anti-north in the near term. Adding a stochastic off these percentage charts is just putting salt = in my wounds. An oscillator to read what is essentially an oscillator? Now, there may be some salvation on the weekly chart, or maybe not. Am I missing something here? DMC - ------=_NextPart_000_0161_01C36028.C582FC40 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

DMC,

The two charts show that the = market=20 internals are weaker than the major indexes are showing (NDX and SPX = have not=20 pulled back very much price-wise). That says the small caps are = weaker=20 than the large caps. If the big caps start giving it up, the = indexes will=20 fall like a rock. On the flip side, one could interpret them = in a=20 contrary manner ...... a lot of stocks have pulled back = significantly and a=20 little good news could very well push the indexes higher because = they are=20 no longer overbought.

These are just another way to = get a look=20 at the market.

Looking at the February-March = sell off in=20 the indexes, the two charts did not confirm the price action. That=20 suggested a rally... the powerful rise came in late March and these = charts=20 confirmed the strength of that rally. Right now we have a divergence but = we=20 don't really have the confirming price action. So we have to use = them as a=20 warning. It says it is a dangerous time to be long, that's=20 all.

The stochastic indicator is on all of = my=20 charts (default setup)...

Gene

Gene,

I loved your pictures, but for the = life of me I=20 can't figure out how to use them. I'm trying, though. When = a large=20 % of the components of an index are over the 50 ma line, then that's = bearish=20 (likely to fall?)? So if these % have crested and are falling, = then it's=20 not quite as bearish (likely to fall) as before?

I'm trying to parse it out, but it = may just be=20 beyond me. I barely grasp the BPNDX things (where you take the = stacks of=20 names doing a P&F chart bullish move and make histograms out of = them, look=20 for the rise and the cresting), so this may completely stump = me.

In something like $NYA50R, let me go = back to=20 simplicity itself. When I look at the daily chart for the NYSE I = see an=20 index which has risen from 4400 to 5740 in 3 months or so, and seems = to be=20 selling off (priceline). The 2 month trend in the price is down, = and the=20 shorter moving averages are cutting down through the longer ones (the = 10 is=20 below the 20, the 20 is below the 30, and all three are heading down = toward=20 the 50 and the 200. This is very bearish to me. The fact = that 90%=20 of the names used to be above the 50 ma and now its only 50 seems to = be=20 counting the angels on the head of a pin since the index seems to be = heading=20 south. The number of names above or below the 50 ma would seem = to be=20 more dependent on where the index has been than where it might be = going. =20 In this case, since the index has gotten smashed, all its moving = averages are=20 unusually low and therefore easy to cross in both directions. I = don't=20 know if it's overbought or oversold, I just think it's going = anti-north in the=20 near term.

Adding a stochastic off these = percentage charts=20 is just putting salt in my wounds. An oscillator to read what is = essentially an oscillator?

Now, there may be some salvation on = the weekly=20 chart, or maybe not.

Am I missing something = here?

DMC

- ------=_NextPart_000_0161_01C36028.C582FC40-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #3500 ****************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.