From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #365 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Sunday, August 23 1998 Volume 02 : Number 365 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] RUT Re: [CANSLIM] RUT Re: [CANSLIM] O'Neil's counting method? Re: [CANSLIM] O'Neil's counting method? Re: [CANSLIM] RUT [CANSLIM] HGS file Re: [CANSLIM] RUT Re: [CANSLIM] RUT Re: [CANSLIM] HGS file Re: [CANSLIM] RUT [CANSLIM] Top Ten Group Performance - 4 Weeks [CANSLIM] NonCanslim - M - Saturday Korean Trading Results [CANSLIM] Follow-through days and Bollinger Bands (BB) [CANSLIM] Top Ten Group Performance - 1 Week Re: [CANSLIM] RUT ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 21 Aug 1998 20:06:57 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUT I couldn't resist. Sorry. At 10:36 PM 8/21/98 -0400, you wrote: >Perhaps if all terrorists turned >themselves into authorities. Yeah, right! > I thought they already did that? Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 21 Aug 1998 21:55:06 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUT <> I'll grant you that two people can look at the same chart and come to two entirely different conclusions. Which is why I always look at a chart from both the long and short side, though even then bias sometimes creeps in. What I find striking is how strong the various supports are, depending on the index. For example, if you'll draw a trendline on the Dow with low points in July '96, April '97 and January '98 (I chose to consider October '97 as an anomaly because of the other three points), the support it provides is really pretty remarkable, which would make a violation of this line no small thing (BTW, I drew this line earlier in the Summer). In addition to that, 8400 seems to be acting as a bungee cord, perhaps because it represents a 50% retracement, or maybe because of the previous price peak of 8329 in August '97 (that may be a stretch). Similar supports can be found in the other averages, though the Naz has yet to reach its 200d. Close, but not quite. I know that there are several parties in this group who don't want to hear this, but I just don't see this "market" as being monolithic. Even the term "market" has lost its meaning, since market-watchers regularly divvie everything up into the Dow, Naz and S&P. The semi, semi equipment, disk drive makers, drillers, field services, etc. have been in a bear "market" for nearly a year (and I say "bear" because of the economic and earnings factors, even though interest rates haven't changed). The high-flyers may be getting slashed to ribbons, but the stocks which are already downtrodden have hardly been effected by the "market" movements of the past couple of weeks. Therefore, while one scenario might have all stocks continue to decline, it seems just as likely that those stocks which will be most effected will be those which are the most overvalued, while stocks like MANU and CIEN may have already seen the worst. That's why following a representative batch of stocks might be more enlightening than focusing solely on the index averages and might keep one from becoming unnecessarily bearish. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 22 Aug 1998 14:45:08 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O'Neil's counting method? Deepak wrote: >Can you explain Woodward's rules The list of factors to consider I have from Ian Woordward is copyrighted material, as it comes from his newsletter. I do have a similar list from one of his public postings. I hope it is OK to post this. It is taken from this file DB offered, and practically no one cared about... I'm quite sure that if you want to know more about all of this, you can ask him questions about it on his board at: http://nt-chat0.telescan.com:8080/gotomenu - --- start of included post --- Subj: Re:MKT ANALYSIS Date: 97-12-03 18:26:35 EST From: IANFORUM Frank: Welcome to Ian's Corner. The short answer is that we use Moving Average crossovers and estimates for an up market, down market and sideways market to guide us. These scenarios are based on the degree of extension of a Market Index as measured from its universally accepted moving averages. The "extension" is the HGS Investors tool for determining the risk as to whether the market is under or over valued. I don't use P&F, but if they work fine for you and you are comfortable with the process, use it. One of the most fatal flaws is to be so intent on a particular direction (falling in love with a single scenario), and not having a plan should the market go contrary to the "favored' direction. In other words, HGS Investors let the market tell them which scenario it is on based on their forecast of the three alternatives. Depending on whether they are Swashbucklers or Prudent HGS Investors, they then act accordingly, based on the degree of confirmation they will seek before engaging. The check list of six items to evaluate the market is as follows: 1. First review the key Market Indexes of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, the S&P 100 (OEX), the Nasdaq (NASD), the Nasdaq 100 (NDX.X), and the Russell 2000 (RUT.X). In addition, a close eye is kept on the Utilities (.DJU) and the Bonds (TYX.X). Use one year charts with the 17 Day, 50 Day and 200 Day MA overlaid on the chart. Place trendlines connecting the recent lows and highs to determine points of support and resistance. Also, establish the Relative Strength of the RUT.X vs the Nasdaq. Again look for breaking of long and short term trendlines either to the upside or the downside, to confirm the probable trend and to establish which markets are leading and lagging relative to each other. The HGS Investor is interested in two types of Portfolio, one for Gorilla stocks of the Mattress Stuffer variety usually found in the OEX 100 (OEX.X), and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX.X). More recently, the New Nifty Fifty (NFT.X) describes this combined world perfectly. The other is for the "Buy Rockets, Sell Rocks" variety known affectionately as Cha-Cha-Cha stocks as described by the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 (RUT.X). 2. Also, review the underlying popular Industry Group Indexes, such as the Semiconductor (SOX.X), the Computer Software (CWX.X), the Internet (IIT.X), the Healthcare (HCX.X), the Biotech (BTK.X), the Retailers (RLX.X) and Gaming (GAX.X), etc., using similar moving averages and trendlines to assess their health. 3. Next, establish the most recent logical "Base Low" during the past six months to a year. The Base Low must be preceded by at least an intermediate market correction of 7-10%. This Base Low determines the "anchor" or baseline as a point of departure for establishing the potential target for the next "high", by evaluating the degree of extension from this point as well as establishing whether the Index under review is technically vulnerable or not to a correction. The base low can also be characterized by the Index retesting its low at least once, defined by a double bottom formation for an intermediate correction. In a major correction >10%, and worse yet a bear market of >15%., this base low will be tested several times and hold over a period of several weeks or months. By definition, the Base Low will always start from a point below the 50 Day MA. Also, depending on the depth of the correction, especially in a correction >10% and lasting for a period of months rather than weeks, the Base Low will be below both the 50 and the 200 Day MA. The two recent corrections are excellent examples of this, where last March and April, 1997, the Nasdaq Index was at the 1194 region, below both the 50 day MA and the 200 Day MA, while more recently, this Index has been below the 50 day MA only. The current Base Low (unless broken from here on out) is at 1540, between friends. In summary, the six steps are as follows, with the first three described in the previous note: 1. Establish the relative strength of the RUT.X to the Nasdaq, SPX and .DJI 2. Review the Industry Group Indexes to establish rotation and early leaders 3. Determine the logical "Base Low" as the baseline for the next move. On this most recent occasion, I covered these points in a previous note on Oct. 28, which is summarized as follows: Low Road Mid Road High Road Close Weak Medium Strong 10/28/97 Bounce Bounce Bounce .DJI (Dow) 7498 7680 7900 8100 SPX (S&P 500) 922 932 940 960 NASD (Nasdaq) 1600 1642 1662 1700 RUT.X (Russell) 429 434 444 454 4. Establish the extent of the "bounce" for repair, using the 17 Day, 50 Day and 200 Day MA's for clues of when the market is turning positive or negative. For this occasion: a. Early entry is when the Index moves through the 50 Day MA b. Confirmation is when the 17 Day MA moves up through the 50 Day MA 5. Develop the High, Low and Middle Road Scenarios 6. Establish the % of stocks above the 200 day MA, and % Accumulation "A" or "B" as further confirmation of the weakness or strength of the broad market. With these steps completed, the HGS Investor is in control of his destiny relating to the direction of the Market, and is in a position to make prudent decisions for entry and exit. Based on the criteria shown above, the Dow and SPX have repaired well, with the latter leading on the High Road scenario followed by the Dow, while the Nasdaq and RUT.X are lagging at this time. I hope that helps. Regards, Ian. - --- end of included post --- Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 22 Aug 1998 14:56:26 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] O'Neil's counting method? Walter wrote: >Couple quick comments... >(check the #2 point in his graph in mid-April ). Could someone please scan and post this chart? I'd love to 'see' what he is talking about. Alas we Europeans can't get IBD, otherwise I would have had a subscription... Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 22 Aug 1998 06:25:58 -0700 (PDT) From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUT - ---dbphoenix wrote: > I'll grant you that two people can look at the same chart and come to > two entirely different conclusions. Which is why I always look at a > chart from both the long and short side, though even then bias > sometimes creeps in. > > What I find striking is how strong the various supports are, depending > on the index. For example, if you'll draw a trendline on the Dow with > low points in July '96, April '97 and January '98 (I chose to consider > October '97 as an anomaly because of the other three points), the > support it provides is really pretty remarkable, which would make a > violation of this line no small thing (BTW, I drew this line earlier > in the Summer). In addition to that, 8400 seems to be acting as a > bungee cord, perhaps because it represents a 50% retracement, or maybe > because of the previous price peak of 8329 in August '97 (that may be > a stretch). Similar supports can be found in the other averages, > though the Naz has yet to reach its 200d. Close, but not quite. > > I know that there are several parties in this group who don't want to > hear this, but I just don't see this "market" as being monolithic. > Even the term "market" has lost its meaning, since market-watchers > regularly divvie everything up into the Dow, Naz and S&P. The semi, > semi equipment, disk drive makers, drillers, field services, etc. have > been in a bear "market" for nearly a year (and I say "bear" because of > the economic and earnings factors, even though interest rates haven't > changed). The high-flyers may be getting slashed to ribbons, but the > stocks which are already downtrodden have hardly been effected by the > "market" movements of the past couple of weeks. > > Therefore, while one scenario might have all stocks continue to > decline, it seems just as likely that those stocks which will be most > effected will be those which are the most overvalued, while stocks > like MANU and CIEN may have already seen the worst. That's why > following a representative batch of stocks might be more enlightening > than focusing solely on the index averages and might keep one from > becoming unnecessarily bearish. > > --Db > I agree entirely, Db. The discussion of both the support levels and follow through days for each index has underlined for me the importance of knowing which market you are following and which stocks you are considering. I have been considering the notion, for example, of using the Russell 2000 as my bell weather indicator for investment in small cap canslim candidates, the NASDAQ for large cap high techs which may show canslim properties with regard to breakouts or LLUR (e.g. LU, CSCO, DELL or other nouvelle nifty fifties). I realize this is playing loose with WON's ideas but what do people think? Ciao, rolatzi _______________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 22 Aug 1998 07:59:52 -0600 From: "Dan Sutton" Subject: [CANSLIM] HGS file This week's HGS file is now available at: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/hgs0821.xls - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 22 Aug 1998 10:02:33 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUT it's "playing loose with WON's ideas" Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: rolatzi To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Saturday, August 22, 1998 9:34 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUT >I agree entirely, Db. The discussion of both the support levels and >follow through days for each index has underlined for me the >importance of knowing which market you are following and which stocks >you are considering. I have been considering the notion, for example, >of using the Russell 2000 as my bell weather indicator for investment >in small cap canslim candidates, the NASDAQ for large cap high techs >which may show canslim properties with regard to breakouts or LLUR >(e.g. LU, CSCO, DELL or other nouvelle nifty fifties). I realize this >is playing loose with WON's ideas but what do people think? > >Ciao, >rolatzi >_______________________________________________________ - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 22 Aug 1998 10:08:57 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUT At 21:55 8/21/98 -0700, you wrote: >I'll grant you that two people can look at the same chart and come to >two entirely different conclusions. Which is why I always look at a >chart from both the long and short side, though even then bias >sometimes creeps in. > >What I find striking is how strong the various supports are, depending >on the index. For example, if you'll draw a trendline on the Dow with >low points in July '96, April '97 and January '98 (I chose to consider >October '97 as an anomaly because of the other three points), the >support it provides is really pretty remarkable, which would make a >violation of this line no small thing (BTW, I drew this line earlier >in the Summer). In addition to that, 8400 seems to be acting as a >bungee cord, perhaps because it represents a 50% retracement, or maybe >because of the previous price peak of 8329 in August '97 (that may be >a stretch). Similar supports can be found in the other averages, >though the Naz has yet to reach its 200d. Close, but not quite. > >I know that there are several parties in this group who don't want to >hear this, but I just don't see this "market" as being monolithic. >Even the term "market" has lost its meaning, since market-watchers >regularly divvie everything up into the Dow, Naz and S&P. The semi, >semi equipment, disk drive makers, drillers, field services, etc. have >been in a bear "market" for nearly a year (and I say "bear" because of >the economic and earnings factors, even though interest rates haven't >changed). The high-flyers may be getting slashed to ribbons, but the >stocks which are already downtrodden have hardly been effected by the >"market" movements of the past couple of weeks. > >Therefore, while one scenario might have all stocks continue to >decline, it seems just as likely that those stocks which will be most >effected will be those which are the most overvalued, while stocks >like MANU and CIEN may have already seen the worst. That's why >following a representative batch of stocks might be more enlightening >than focusing solely on the index averages and might keep one from >becoming unnecessarily bearish. > >--Db I didn't spot a thing I'd differ with you about. On AOL, they're saying 'The Old Gal (Dow Industrial Avg) is incredible. She's not going down without a fight!' I found and give credibility to the exact same trend line you described above. There are other signs of encouragement also. Other Index trend lines that look to be holding. Adv/Decl issues, volume & new hi/lows seem to be stabilizing (at higher lows) and looking to these levels as support. However, recent domestic and world developments would make my projections of the possibilities fairly limited both in extent and duration. An interest rate surprise could be the unknown that changes all of this in a split second. There seems to be a case building for a lowering of rates. As you, I've never thought the market as being monolithic, however, I have to view it somewhat monolithically when dealing with an Annuity whose description for one of six switchable funds available sez 'Growth Stocks'. Can't get a good feel for what's in that package. So I have to set aside my microscope into the sectors/groups, OEX, SPX, NDX, RTU, HGS, Iandex, DOW, TRAN, UTIL, and jump into the balloon, get a few hundred feet in the air and see if there is a tidal wave on the horizon. Thus the fixation on the popular averages. Regards, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 22 Aug 1998 07:09:01 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HGS file At 07:59 AM 8/22/98 -0600, you wrote: >This week's HGS file is now available at: > > With most mailers, this doesn't get you there: >ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/hgs0821.xls > This does: http://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/canslim/hgs0821.xls > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 22 Aug 1998 10:24:49 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUT I disagree that it is playing loosely with WON's ideas. Todays IBD has the weekly feature Q&A with O B WON himself. "In addition to what specific industry groups are strongest at a particular time, there is another crucial type of sector move that you should learn to spot: Are big institutions primarily investing in the larger, blue chip growth stocks or the more volatile, less seasoned small-cap companies?" "Late in 1977, the market shifted its emphasis from smaller companies to highly liquid big-capitalization stocks. With larger numbers of shares of stock available, money managers can get in or out more easily. It pays to be alert and be where the big money is flowing. You can tell when the market shifts from small caps to big caps by tracking the small chart entitled "Big-Cap Growth Funds Vs. Small-Cap Growth Funds." published daily in IBD's Making Money In Mutuals section." yadda - yadda. I keep my third and fourth eyes on the .ndx, and oex for this very reason. Regards, Frank Wolynski At 10:02 8/22/98 -0400, you wrote: >it's "playing loose with WON's ideas" > >Tom W > >-----Original Message----- >From: rolatzi >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Date: Saturday, August 22, 1998 9:34 AM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUT > > >>I agree entirely, Db. The discussion of both the support levels and >>follow through days for each index has underlined for me the >>importance of knowing which market you are following and which stocks >>you are considering. I have been considering the notion, for >example, >>of using the Russell 2000 as my bell weather indicator for investment >>in small cap canslim candidates, the NASDAQ for large cap high techs >>which may show canslim properties with regard to breakouts or LLUR >>(e.g. LU, CSCO, DELL or other nouvelle nifty fifties). I realize >this >>is playing loose with WON's ideas but what do people think? >> >>Ciao, >>rolatzi >>_______________________________________________________ > > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 22 Aug 1998 12:02:17 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Top Ten Group Performance - 4 Weeks 4 Week Group Performance Tabulations: Is there any interest in a 1 week tabulation? If so, please reply to wolynski@mindspring.com Please do not reply to the list. If I have more than 2-3 requests I'll go ahead and post the tabulation to the list. Best 4 Week Performance: 4Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking # 1 Computer-Mini/Micro 8.7% 3 4 # 2 Retail-Drug Stores 3.5% 10 27 # 3 Utility-Electric Power 1.7% 63 95 # 4 Utility-Water Supply 1.7% 51 60 # 5 Computer-Mainframes 1.2% 56 93 # 6 Oil&Gas-Intl Integrated 0.4% 113 118 # 7 Medical-Generic Drugs -1.1% 14 32 # 8 Computer-Memory Devices -1.5% 58 72 # 9 Funeral Svcs & Rel -1.5% 78 114 #10 Elec-Scientific Instrumn -1.6% 145 155 Worst 4 Week Performance: 4Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking #197 Computer Softwr-Security -22.3% 111 82 #196 Medical-Hlth Maint Org -22.3% 146 111 #195 Retail-Discount&Variety -19.5% 80 61 #194 Transport-Air Freight -19.2% 187 182 #193 Retail-Misc/Diversified -19.1% 43 34 #192 Finance-Consumer/Comml -18.1% 123 127 #191 Comml Serv-Staffing -17.8% 74 73 #190 Banks-Money Center -17.6% 77 85 #189 Cosmetics/Personal Care -17.6% 120 110 #188 Telecommunctns-Cellulr -17.5% 4 3 FWIW, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 22 Aug 1998 13:38:12 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] NonCanslim - M - Saturday Korean Trading Results Stocks plunge in Korea - --- http://my.excite.com/news/u/980822/00/business-korea SEOUL, South Korea, Aug. 22 (UPI) Prices on the Korea Stock Exchange plunged today on foreign-led buying of blue chips such as Samsung Electronics and Pohang Iron and Steel. The composite Korea Stock Price Index plummeted 11.29 points, or 3.57 percent down, to 305.33, after rising 0.03 points Friday. The KSE reported 27 shares hit limit up while 51 struck limit down, referring to an 12-percent limit on intraday price fluctuations. Volume was 45.94 million shares, compared with 94.03 million traded Friday. Trading value of $184.56 million (240.09 billion won) compared with $390.85 million (509.99 billion won). Losers beat winners 544 to 213 shares. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 22 Aug 1998 17:02:51 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow-through days and Bollinger Bands (BB) Can anyone verify that in order to maximise the chance that you have a succesfull follow-through day, the index should have spend a few days in the upper BB, or the index should stay in the upper BB for at least several days after the follow-through day? Most indexes have not had closes above the 20SMA (mid-line of BBs) the last several days. Only the Nas 100 (NDX) closed above it for several days. Hence stocks like DELL and CSCO, the super gorilla's are doing O.K. As O'Neil mentioned: the super big caps are still the ones that look best: "It's probably wise to limit any buying to only the highest- quality large-cap institutional growth stocks that trade at least 2 million shares a day." I could verify the question above myself, but my QPv2 charting program does not allow me to zoom in on a particular area, so looking back more than 1 year is almost impossible for this kind of detailed viewing. One more reason to buy a charting program. If anyone knows of a site where I can buy software like I can buy books at Amazon, please let me know. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 22 Aug 1998 20:07:50 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Top Ten Group Performance - 1 Week 1 Week Group Performance Tabulations: Best 1 Week Performance: 1Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking # 1 Computer-Mini/Micro 6.2% 3 4 # 2 Retail-Drug Stores 3.7% 10 27 # 3 Medical-Drug/Diversified 3.7% 16 46 # 4 Retail-Major Disc Chains 3.4% 11 29 # 5 Food-Canned 3.1% 141 159 # 6 Metal Ores-Non Ferrous 2.3% 147 167 # 7 Computer Softwr-Internet 2.3% 1 1 # 8 Oil&Gas-Intl Integrated 2.2% 118 113 # 9 Retail-Super/Mini Mkts 2.0% 18 13 #10 Funeral Svcs & Rel 2.0% 78 114 Worst 1 Week Performance: 1Wk Percentage This Week Last Week Rank Group Gain IBD Ranking IBD Ranking #197 Retail-Discount&Variety -10.6% 80 61 #196 Chemicals-Fertilizers - 7.1% 185 186 #195 Retail-Mail Order&Direct - 6.8% 33 39 #194 Computer Softwr-Security - 6.5% 111 82 #193 Computer Softwr-Educ/Entr - 5.5% 92 86 #192 Computer Softwr-Med - 4.8% 44 59 #191 Bldg-A/C & Heating Prds - 4.8% 99 102 #190 Comml Svcs-Linen Supply - 4.6% 91 84 #189 Retail-Apparel/Shoe - 4.5% 24 15 #188 Shoes & Rel Apparel - 4.3% 93 169 FWIW, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 23 Aug 1998 08:03:29 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUT Frank, While the "chatter level" regarding recession and a rate cut seems to keep popping up, to date I have seen no credible data or evidence, nor found a credible source, that shows a shift away from a bias toward a rate hiike. The minutes of the last several FOMC meetings continue to show an upward bias, with the primary focus on labor costs. And the last several months of data show that productivity is no longer offsetting increases in labor costs. The labor mkts continue to be very tight, even tho new workers are now entering the labor force as well as a result of the new 2 year limit on welfare (tho granted these are typically low income). Employees are feeling pretty secure as a result, and more likely to demand higher pay (note the recent increase in strikes, some of which is pay related and some, like GM, is job security related to prevent sub-contracting out work). Over the past 4-5 years mfr's have squeezed their operations for all possible cost efficiencies. With the continuation of overseas competition inspired by the strong dollar and weak foreign economies, further labor costs will either result in higher prices or a further erosion of earnings growth rates (and eventually of net earnings). IMO, I see no chance of a rate cut in the next year at a minimum, while I see a rate hike currently being prevented only by the lack of solid inflationary data and the weak worldwide economies. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Saturday, August 22, 1998 10:08 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUT >However, recent domestic and world developments would make my projections >of the possibilities fairly limited both in extent and duration. An >interest rate surprise could be the unknown that changes all of this in a >split second. There seems to be a case building for a lowering of rates. > - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #365 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. 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