From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #380 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, September 9 1998 Volume 02 : Number 380 In this issue: RE: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day [CANSLIM] Speaking of Leaders Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day [CANSLIM] Followthrough Re: [CANSLIM] Followthrough [CANSLIM] Follow Though Day?? [CANSLIM] WatchList Candidates Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day Re: [CANSLIM] Follow Though Day?? [CANSLIM] Realtime Intraday Overseas Charts Re: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - looking for S&P500 estimated earnings [CANSLIM] Follow-Through Day? [CANSLIM] Japan's Outlook [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 Re: [CANSLIM] Realtime Intraday Overseas Charts RE: [CANSLIM] Follow-Through Day? RE: [CANSLIM] Follow Though Day?? Fw: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 RE: [CANSLIM] Follow-Through Day? Re: [CANSLIM] Japan's Outlook Re: [CANSLIM] Follow Though Day?? Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 8 Sep 1998 12:52:29 -0700 From: mikelu Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day I was thinking of ADAC, but the base is a little short. Mike - -----Original Message----- From: Johan Van Houtven [SMTP:Johan.VanHoutven@ping.be] Sent: Tuesday, September 08, 1998 12:16 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day The follow-through day is now a fact (NASDAQ). And sentiment was/is bearish. I would like to know who has found stocks that have been basing and that have broken out or are breaking out. (I'll gladly leave the strong group requirement out, for now. :) Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 08 Sep 1998 15:56:29 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day >The follow-through day is now a fact (NASDAQ). And sentiment was/is bearish. > >I would like to know who has found stocks that have been basing and that >have broken out or are breaking out. (I'll gladly leave the strong group >requirement out, for now. :) Hi Johan, Can't find many. Looked for bases yesterday and found few that looked like much. Here is a list of stocks, some with great gains today, that also were on my watch list. A couple were breakouts. A few with ugly charts are low level breakouts (good volume, near a new high). I found quite a few stocks that had failed breakouts due to market action and then pulled back out of the base last week. They are up nicely today on a secondary breakout. Everything I look at is too extended, too ugly a base, or not quite there yet. Weird market. As you say, definitely a followthrough in my book. And somehow I trust this one more than the last (failed) one (esp. since we have had a climactic looking bottom put in and a monster bounce the next day). Now we just need to figure out who the leaders will be. I expect a choppy market with some workable breakouts mixed with some failures (OPINION only - worth what you paid for it). Best regards, Craig tsfw neon lgto nspr cbiz spri emc qlgc mnmd payx sut adac avei dt csc jnj lgto - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 08 Sep 1998 13:22:46 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day On 12:56 PM 9/8/98 , Craig Griffin Said: > >>The follow-through day is now a fact (NASDAQ). And sentiment was/is bearish. >> >>I would like to know who has found stocks that have been basing and that >>have broken out or are breaking out. (I'll gladly leave the strong group >>requirement out, for now. :) > >lgto Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day Tim, >>lgto Friday >from a high of 40-1/2 in mid-July! Does O'Neil have a new "cliff" base that I >missed? You must be thinking of a different stock. LGTO closed at 49 7/8 today up 7 7/8, per Yahoo. I read it as coming out of an ugly 8 week base with the pivot at about 47. >You didn't mention JKHY, which of the 12 or so stocks on my list is closest to >it's recent high (45-15/16 vs. 46-1/2). Definitely not much of a base though. Yep, it is on my list too. I read it as having broken out on 7/20 with a pivot at 38. It made little progress, pulled back into the base, came back out, made some more progress and then pulled back to test the top of the base again. Yesterday (Friday), it was at 42 and I thought to buy it if it fleshed out a base before the follow-through day came (I guessed I had at least another month - WRONG). Instead, it launched today out of a 4 week base, too short to play with IMO. Just barely a new high though, maybe it will pull back and base a few more weeks before going for real - then I might go for it. > >Tim Fisher >Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > >mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com >WWW: http://OreRockOn.com >See naked fish and rocks! > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 8 Sep 1998 13:52:40 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Speaking of Leaders The volume leaders on the Naz today were DELL INTC CCMC CSCO MSFT WCOM ASND COMS ORCL TLAB In other words, the usual. The only stock on the price % gainers list above $7 was SERO. On the NYSE, the volume leaders were TRV CPQ CMB LU CCI GE TBR DIS CD AOL So, networks, telecom, computers, software, internet, financials--the usual. If the "leadership" hasn't changed (i.e., the Nifty 20), finding proper bases won't be easy. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 08 Sep 1998 13:56:04 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day Brain fart - thinking LGTO and looking at LBOR! LGTO got bounced from my watch list. P.S. Anyone notice how the big boys opened everything up something like 15% and then most of them fell to close up from Friday but down from the open? Is that a tactic to catch market orders placed over the weekend? Not that I would have placed any before today, but if I did place an order on something like DELL only to lose a couple percent on a day like this, I'd be really steamed. On 01:40 PM 9/8/98 , Craig Griffin Said: >Tim, > >>>lgto >Friday >>from a high of 40-1/2 in mid-July! Does O'Neil have a new "cliff" base that I >>missed? > >You must be thinking of a different stock. LGTO closed at 49 7/8 today up >7 7/8, per Yahoo. I read it as coming out of an ugly 8 week base with the >pivot at about 47. > >>You didn't mention JKHY, which of the 12 or so stocks on my list is >closest to >>it's recent high (45-15/16 vs. 46-1/2). Definitely not much of a base though. > >Yep, it is on my list too. I read it as having broken out on 7/20 with a >pivot at 38. It made little progress, pulled back into the base, came back >out, made some more progress and then pulled back to test the top of the >base again. Yesterday (Friday), it was at 42 and I thought to buy it if it >fleshed out a base before the follow-through day came (I guessed I had at >least another month - WRONG). Instead, it launched today out of a 4 week >base, too short to play with IMO. Just barely a new high though, maybe it >will pull back and base a few more weeks before going for real - then I >might go for it. > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 8 Sep 1998 18:18:54 -0700 (PDT) From: Anindo Majumdar Subject: [CANSLIM] Followthrough NASDAQvolume today was 783,606,000 which was less than Friday's volume of 800,751,200.Doesn't O'Neil say that the volume has to be greater than the previous day to qualify as a valid follow through. > > The best CANSLIM picks from my watch list are not going to wait for me > alas... :-) > > TSFW breaking out on 2.9x ADV (Av Daily Volume ) currently > > METG trying to breakout on 1.5x ADV currently (2 hours before close Tues 9/8) > > Bye, bye... (No, that is NOT Buy, buy... We have not had a follow-through > day yet and even if we do have one today, we are still in a down trend. I > expect that Jeffrey will be quite delighted when he takes note of my > (still) bearish attitude. ;^) > > > > > > > > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 08 Sep 1998 21:45:04 -0400 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Followthrough At 06:18 PM 9/8/98 -0700, you wrote: > NASDAQvolume today was 783,606,000 which was less than Friday's volume of >800,751,200.Doesn't O'Neil say that the volume has to be greater than the previous day to qualify as a valid follow through. Friday's volume was 626,724,000 on the NASDAQ per both QP2 and Yahoo. You can go here http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^TV.O&d=t and look at the Prev Cls field. BTW, the up/down volume was 10 to 1 on the NYSE and 7 to 1 on the NASDAQ. Both rather extreme (bullish) figures. See http://quote.yahoo.com/m0?u for details. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 8 Sep 1998 22:25:58 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow Though Day?? I must confess, today had the look, taste, feel and smell of a follow thru day. However, a word of caution: the primary force behind today was Greenspan's hint on Friday being widely interpreted by the media and traders as suggesting a rate cut is near by the Feds. This "news event" coming in the midst of a severely beaten down mkt, and substantial bearish sentiment for the first time in a long while, gave the mkt every excuse to rally. It's unlikely, IMHO, that the Feds will cut at the Sep 29 meeting having just shifted from a bias towards a rate hike to a neutral stance. And it's equally unlikely, again IMHO, that any rate cut will be half a percent. The Feds have a demonstrated history of increasing by half a percent and decreasing by a qtr percent. I also have concerns over today's volume, BTW the chart at DGO for Nasdaq also shows the volume for Friday higher than today, also for NYSE. On the other hand, recent volumes have been so volatile and high as to possibly negate the significance (or requirement) that the follow thru vol beat the prior day, so long as it's still well over average and close to the prior day. Just a thought, no research yet to back up a brain fart idea. HOWEVER, once the enthusiasm and momentum of this "news event" driven mkt dies off, what will it take to either sustain or move the mkt higher?? Solid earnings growth in the big cap, or even mid cap, stocks?? Unlikely. Sudden economic and political bliss in Russia?? Dream on. Unexpected aggressive economic action by the Japanese leadership?? Another fantasy. Massive recovery in Latin America as oil prices skyrocket?? A faint possibility, tho crude futures took another hit today as fears of Russian turmoil hurting supply faded, and the three leaders expected to meet, and possibly discuss further cuts, decided not to meet after all. In other words, my gut tells me today may represent the follow thru day we have been looking (hoping, praying, counting) for, but because it is news driven, as opposed to technical, then you must also evaluate the value and significance of the news. Without some fundamental changes in several economies, then this just becomes another bit of noise that can soon fade away. And the downside is that just as Greenspan didn't want to raise rates in the face of some mild inflationary evidence for fear he would harm other currencies and economies, he now is faced with the possibility that he may have to cut rates to help those same foreign issues as their troubles become clearer and even worse, even as inflation in the USA builds. A tough balancing act, and one that could ultimately end the favorable noninflationary environment we have enjoyed for years. Tom W - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 08 Sep 1998 22:57:59 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] WatchList Candidates In these turbulent times, (I totally missed todays action!) I find the following charts very interesting. Both groups are in ranking positions I am particularly fond of! :-) None of these are to be considered recommendations to buy. I am just openingly sharing a few on my watch list with not too bad technical charts considering the market. Group = Computer Services #26 (Ticker - EPS/RS - Acc/Dist - Float Mil.) CSGS - 64/93 - B - 22 (a bit loose, but MF is very tight and setting NH's) METG - 70/98 - B - 7.9 (NH, 7-8 week base, great chart action, gotta love it!) TIER - 98/96 - B - 5.5 (Flat base has held above 200day MOV) NEON - 76/99 - B - 6.5 (NH, bit wild, but advancing on advancing on Vol) TSFW - 98/99 - B - 5.2 (NH, Strong volume breakout, above 50 & 200day MOV) Group = Computer Optical Recognition #45 SBL - 94/98 - B - ?? (Near NH, price action/MF strong, above 50&200day MOV.) NLCS - 87/96 - B - 27 (4/8 from a NH, nice & tight above 200day, ) (around the 50day & MF advancing, volume picking up) (recently!) FWIW, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 8 Sep 1998 22:58:53 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day Johan, While I haven't shook off my bearish sentiments, will share the few on my watch list that look more promising. Would agree that it's very difficult to find any with a decent base, whether you measure it from the bottom of the cliff or the top of the mountain. Mostly I respect the resiliency shown by these: DAKT, HWLD, MCSC (no, despite the name, it's not a local co, based in Dayton, Ohio); PVCC (for the speculators only, low priced and thinly traded, but basing); TSFW (tho now way too extended); CBIZ (kicking myself on this after today). Disclosure: don't own a share of any of them, but likely will once I figure out how to dig myself out of the hole I put myself into. Please note: am posting this list despite my continued bearish sentiments, and grave distrust of today as a "follow thru" day. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Johan Van Houtven To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Tuesday, September 08, 1998 3:39 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day >The follow-through day is now a fact (NASDAQ). And sentiment was/is bearish. > >I would like to know who has found stocks that have been basing and that >have broken out or are breaking out. (I'll gladly leave the strong group >requirement out, for now. :) > > > >Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 8 Sep 1998 23:00:59 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day Nice shopping list for watching, Craig. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Craig Griffin To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Tuesday, September 08, 1998 3:57 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through day > >Can't find many. Looked for bases yesterday and found few that looked like >much. Here is a list of stocks, some with great gains today, that also were >on my watch list. A couple were breakouts. A few with ugly charts are low >level breakouts (good volume, near a new high >Everything I look at is too extended, too ugly a base, or not quite there >Best regards, >Craig > >tsfw >neon >lgto >nspr >cbiz >spri >emc >qlgc >mnmd >payx >sut >adac >avei >dt >csc >jnj >lgto > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 08 Sep 1998 23:18:50 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow Though Day?? At 22:25 9/8/98 -0400, you wrote: > Massive recovery in Latin America as oil >prices skyrocket?? A faint possibility, tho crude futures took another >hit today as fears of Russian turmoil hurting supply faded, and the >three leaders expected to meet, and possibly discuss further cuts, >decided not to meet after all. > > >Tom W > Where most of the European and Asian currencies have rallied the past week, the Mexican peso and I believe other Latin currencies have been woefully absent from the rally! (See IBD futures charts.) I'm interpreting this as a precursor of events yet unfolded, but perhaps feared. Treasuries were notably absent from the rally also! But I heard that explained away as they were already discounting the reduction in rate possibility. If that is true, then I suppose as fast as it began, it is over! Mission accomplished! (Unload treasuries and the dollar at good prices, buy domestic stocks! Thanks Mr. Greenspan and America, that was a much needed boost in liquidity!) I dunno, I'm still learning. Just food for thought. Regards, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 09 Sep 1998 00:07:06 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Realtime Intraday Overseas Charts World markets, thumbnails, updated every 60 seconds while the markets are open. Pretty neat site for those interested in the world markets. http://wwfn.com/sample/oscharts.html Enjoy, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 8 Sep 1998 19:58:25 -0700 (PDT) From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Not CANSLIM - looking for S&P500 estimated earnings Craig, you asked for " estimated earnings thing" Try this: http://quote.fool.com/estimates/estimates.asp?symbols=CAT TM - ---Craig Griffin wrote: > > Can't help you directly on the estimated earnings thing, though I am sure > it is out there. However ... > > For someone who uses a similar model to value the market - take a look here > ===> > http://www.magma.ca/~davef/ (Dave's Investment World). > > He does a very nice job with historical valuations. As you say, not > Canslim directly - but interesting to know and potentially useful for > thinking about things. One of my favorite sites. > > > At 01:26 PM 9/2/98 -0700, you wrote: > >Does anyone know where I can find a web site posting the estimated > >earnings for the S&P500? I am interested in using the difference > >between the future estimated earnings of SP500 and the yield on > >Treasuries to help determine the market outlook (M). > >Thanks, > >rolatzi > > > > > > > > > >_________________________________________________________ > >DO YOU YAHOO!? > >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > > > > >- > > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 09 Sep 1998 00:34:47 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow-Through Day? The reversal day was 9/1. The volume that day was 1.2 billion shares. Today's volume was 817 million shares. The expansion in volume WON talks about means an expansion over both the day you started the count on - in this case, 9/1 - and the following days. Since today's volume contracted rather than expanded, vis-a-vis the volume on 9/1, I don't consider today to be a follow-through day. In fact, today's volume was the lowest in the last 5 trading days, excluding Friday (which was the day before a three-day weekend). - ---Dave Steckler - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 09 Sep 1998 00:52:11 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Japan's Outlook Wednesday, September 9, 1998 PROLONGED SLUMP FORECAST World closer to recession as Japanese economy slated By RUSSELL SKELTON in Tokyo The global economy moved a step closer to recession yesterday after the release of a deeply pessimistic report by Japan's Economic Planning Agency (EPA), warning that the world's second-biggest economy was now "lost at the bottom" of the worst downturn in 50 years. In an uncharacteristically frank report, the planning agency said the Japanese economy was in a "prolonged slump" and the outlook was "extremely severe", especially for the global economy, which was on the "threshold of a very difficult phase". "The instability of the financial markets, combined with worsening housing starts, brought about the downward assessment in September," an EPA official said. The one bright spot was in exports that had managed to remain stable despite the collapse of Asian markets. The release of the EPA's gloomy September report, which virtually dismisses any prospect of a return to growth in the economy, came as the yen and Tokyo Stocks continued to strengthen on investors' fears of a spreading recession in Russia and South America. The Nikkei index closed at 14,913.49, a rise of 123.43 points or 0.83 per cent on the previous day's close. At one stage the Nikkei jumped 500 points to break the 15,000-point barrier for the first time in several weeks. But the rally was shortlived as investors grabbed profits. Dealers said later the rebound in the market could not be sustained because "Japan's fundamentals aren't very good". At noon the yen was also showing signs of weakening, sliding from 131.33 to the US dollar to 132.43 in a few hours. There are no signs that the gridlock over financial reform bills in the Diet, Japan's Parliament, are any closer to being resolved. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan continued to block funds to bail out the failed Long Term Credit Bank of Japan (LTCB). Worried that the collapse of the bank may lead to a "systemic" banking collapse, the Obuchi Government is working on plans to make a one-off injection of funds to save the bank. The Government believes the LTCB crisis is so great it cannot afford to wait for its new banking reform legislation to be passed by the Diet in several months. While the plight of Japan's debt-encumbered banking sector is well known, there are widespread fears that the collapse of the LTCB could bring down much of Japan's financial system. The EPA assessment found that recovery in Japan's economy may come from the Obuchi Government's second 10 trillion-yen supplementary Budget and promised tax cuts worth about 6 trillion yen. But these moves are a long way off and yet to be approved by the Diet. The EPA said in its September report the economy was being dragged down by a slump in personal spending, falling incomes and a massive contraction in the housing industry. Housing starts are down 11 per cent on last year. - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 09 Sep 1998 00:55:21 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 (Snatched from my journeys into AOL.) Frank - --------------------------- In the weeks before the '87 Crash the indexes started gyrating wildly, frequently making 1-3% daily moves up and down. The 51.98 Dow point drop on 9/1/87 was the fitfh biggest point drop ever at the time. The 242,8880,000 share day on 9/8/87 was 7th busiest day ever at the time. The big up day on 8/11/97 was the second busiest at the time. On September 22, 1987, the Dow rallied 75.23 points (3.02%) for its biggest one day point gain ever. The death spiral started in earnest on October 7, 1987 - dropping 91.55 points (3.47%), most of it in the last hour of trading. The Dow had closed the previous day at 2640 - within 82 points (3%) of its all time high. The Crash occurred 12 days later - and less than 30 days after that record gain. Bubbles deflate very quickly once they are pricked. These are the times that is imperative to go home flat every night, IMO. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 8 Sep 1998 23:51:01 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Realtime Intraday Overseas Charts Thanks Frank thats an interesting site, checking it out now... sure will come in handy.. don't know a thing joe jo@koyote.com http://www.koyote.com/users/jo - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 8 Sep 1998 22:45:33 -0700 From: mikelu Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Follow-Through Day? Are you sure about the volume being greater than the first day? In chapter 7, WON says "Wait for a Second Confirmation at Market Bottoms At stock market lows, the individual investor is safer to wait for a second confirmation of the turn before buying heavily. The bottom day in the Dow Jones or the first strong day up after a major decline is usually the first indication of a possible bottom. A good follow-through, with the Dow Jones up 18 or 20 points or more (if the Dow is in the 1800 area) and accompanied by an increase in daily voume from the day before, will usually be on the fourth, fifth, sixth, or seventh day of the attempted rally. This is your second confirmation and main buy signal. Follow-throughs after the tenth day indicate weakness." - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski [SMTP:Wolynski@MindSpring.Com] Sent: Tuesday, September 08, 1998 9:35 PM To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow-Through Day? The reversal day was 9/1. The volume that day was 1.2 billion shares. Today's volume was 817 million shares. The expansion in volume WON talks about means an expansion over both the day you started the count on - in this case, 9/1 - and the following days. Since today's volume contracted rather than expanded, vis-a-vis the volume on 9/1, I don't consider today to be a follow-through day. In fact, today's volume was the lowest in the last 5 trading days, excluding Friday (which was the day before a three-day weekend). - ---Dave Steckler - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 8 Sep 1998 23:47:45 -0700 From: mikelu Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Follow Though Day?? How are you getting the volume so early? It doesn't seem to come out until around midnight. Mike - -----Original Message----- From: Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net] Sent: Tuesday, September 08, 1998 7:26 PM To: CANSLIM Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow Though Day?? I must confess, today had the look, taste, feel and smell of a follow thru day. However, a word of caution: the primary force behind today was Greenspan's hint on Friday being widely interpreted by the media and traders as suggesting a rate cut is near by the Feds. This "news event" coming in the midst of a severely beaten down mkt, and substantial bearish sentiment for the first time in a long while, gave the mkt every excuse to rally. It's unlikely, IMHO, that the Feds will cut at the Sep 29 meeting having just shifted from a bias towards a rate hike to a neutral stance. And it's equally unlikely, again IMHO, that any rate cut will be half a percent. The Feds have a demonstrated history of increasing by half a percent and decreasing by a qtr percent. I also have concerns over today's volume, BTW the chart at DGO for Nasdaq also shows the volume for Friday higher than today, also for NYSE. On the other hand, recent volumes have been so volatile and high as to possibly negate the significance (or requirement) that the follow thru vol beat the prior day, so long as it's still well over average and close to the prior day. Just a thought, no research yet to back up a brain fart idea. HOWEVER, once the enthusiasm and momentum of this "news event" driven mkt dies off, what will it take to either sustain or move the mkt higher?? Solid earnings growth in the big cap, or even mid cap, stocks?? Unlikely. Sudden economic and political bliss in Russia?? Dream on. Unexpected aggressive economic action by the Japanese leadership?? Another fantasy. Massive recovery in Latin America as oil prices skyrocket?? A faint possibility, tho crude futures took another hit today as fears of Russian turmoil hurting supply faded, and the three leaders expected to meet, and possibly discuss further cuts, decided not to meet after all. In other words, my gut tells me today may represent the follow thru day we have been looking (hoping, praying, counting) for, but because it is news driven, as opposed to technical, then you must also evaluate the value and significance of the news. Without some fundamental changes in several economies, then this just becomes another bit of noise that can soon fade away. And the downside is that just as Greenspan didn't want to raise rates in the face of some mild inflationary evidence for fear he would harm other currencies and economies, he now is faced with the possibility that he may have to cut rates to help those same foreign issues as their troubles become clearer and even worse, even as inflation in the USA builds. A tough balancing act, and one that could ultimately end the favorable noninflationary environment we have enjoyed for years. Tom W - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Sep 1998 20:35:23 +1200 From: "Dean Edwards" Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 I agree its not a good time to be on holiday, especially with the market gyrating so much. This is a portion of a newsletter I receive. The market was very oversold and that we would likely see a strong relief rally given that several of our sentiment indicators were at historic levels. As you may recall, the 10-day moving average of the CBOE equity put/call ratio registered .72 Friday. This was the highest mark since the level posted in October 1990 (.66). The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) also closed over 48.0 last week. This extreme level had not been seen since the October 1987 market crash. In our experience, the only effective way to isolate and track relative market strength is through industry sector indexes. You should keep an eye on them and understand their respective support and resistance points. Often times, sector indexes reveal the market's natural rotation. We advised you to focus on those sectors that were among the strongest before the recent correction. Specifically keep an eye on Hardware, Internet and Retail for they would likely lead the next rally based upon their relative strength. Not surprisingly, these sectors were among the leaders on turnaround Tuesday. Internet 9.7% Retail 7.4% Hardware 6.2% Sectors Above/Near 200-Day Moving Average: Reversal Near-Term Re-Entry Sector Signal Support Point ************************************************************** Drug DRG Tweezer Bottom 610 640 * Healthcare HCX Tweezer Bottom 600 635 * Hardware XCI Tweezer Bottom 505 540 * Internet INX Tweezer Bottom 145 165 * Retail RLX Tweezer Bottom 630 665 * As wild as today was, not much clarity emerged. Techs and financials shot higher on the early morning short squeeze. In the second leg, buy programs lifted everyone. Because they didn't load up on financials in the PM so I am dubious. And until they by buy the banks this market is still in a danger zone. So it's hard to tell what people want to hold going into to EPS warnings season. My guess is they will take a shot at the cyclicals, hold the drugs and foods and play techs and financials only until bad news from overseas and EPS comes in. - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, September 09, 1998 6:41 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 >(Snatched from my journeys into AOL.) >Frank >--------------------------- >In the weeks before the '87 Crash the indexes started gyrating wildly, >frequently making 1-3% daily moves up and down. > >The 51.98 Dow point drop on 9/1/87 was the fitfh biggest point drop ever at >the time. The 242,8880,000 share day on 9/8/87 was 7th busiest day ever at >the time. The big up day on 8/11/97 was the second busiest at the time. > >On September 22, 1987, the Dow rallied 75.23 points (3.02%) for its biggest >one day point gain ever. > >The death spiral started in earnest on October 7, 1987 - dropping 91.55 >points (3.47%), most of it in the last hour of trading. The Dow had closed >the previous day at 2640 - within 82 points (3%) of its all time high. > >The Crash occurred 12 days later - and less than 30 days after that record >gain. Bubbles deflate very quickly once they are pricked. These are the >times that is imperative to go home flat every night, IMO. > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 09 Sep 1998 06:48:44 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Follow-Through Day? I am not proposing the volume be greater than the first day. This message was from the AOL canslim forum and represents the authors interpretation of the 1%, up volume follow through. I thought it an interesting variation of a subject that has had much discussion here and it could provide some additional insight. (Especially the treatment of Friday). I too found the declining volume going into Friday to be sufficiently heavy enough to warrant skepticism of yesterdays follow through. The prior three days volume seemed heavy enough that it would take a really convincing number of advancing shares to increase the odds that yesterday was one of the 80% reliable days. I had intended to get the authors permission to post his interpretation, but I queued the clip up incorrectly and the unedited version inadvertently went out when I connected my mail program. My apologies to the group and to the author. Frank Wolynski - ------------------------------------- At 22:45 9/8/98 -0700, you wrote: >Are you sure about the volume being greater than the first day? In chapter >7, WON says > >"Wait for a Second Confirmation at Market Bottoms > >At stock market lows, the individual investor is safer to wait for a second >confirmation of the turn before buying heavily. The bottom day in the Dow >Jones or the first strong day up after a major decline is usually the first >indication of a possible bottom. A good follow-through, with the Dow Jones >up 18 or 20 points or more (if the Dow is in the 1800 area) and >accompanied by an increase in daily voume from the day before, will usually >be on the fourth, fifth, sixth, or seventh day of the attempted rally. This >is your second confirmation and main buy signal. Follow-throughs after the >tenth day indicate weakness." > >-----Original Message----- >From: Frank V. Wolynski [SMTP:Wolynski@MindSpring.Com] >Sent: Tuesday, September 08, 1998 9:35 PM >To: canslim@mail.xmission.com >Subject: [CANSLIM] Follow-Through Day? > >The reversal day was 9/1. The volume that day was 1.2 billion shares. >Today's volume was 817 million shares. The expansion in volume WON talks >about means an expansion over both the day you started the count on - in >this case, 9/1 - and the following days. Since today's volume contracted >rather than expanded, vis-a-vis the volume on 9/1, I don't consider today >to be a follow-through day. In fact, today's volume was the lowest in the >last 5 >trading days, excluding Friday (which was the day before a three-day >weekend). > >---Dave Steckler > > > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Sep 1998 06:58:06 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Japan's Outlook And likely due this report and the drop in the Japanese mkt last night, the yen is even weaker against the dollar, now trading over 136 vs 131. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Frank V. Wolynski To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, September 09, 1998 12:52 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Japan's Outlook > >Wednesday, September 9, 1998 > >PROLONGED SLUMP FORECAST > >The release of the EPA's gloomy September report, which virtually dismisses >any prospect of a >return to growth in the economy, came as the yen and Tokyo Stocks continued >to strengthen on >investors' fears of a spreading recession in Russia and South America. > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Sep 1998 07:04:28 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow Though Day?? Looks like you're right, went back and took another look at the chart this morning, and does now appear vol on Tuesday beat Friday's (pre holiday) volume. Tho the chart showed Tuesday's date and closing price, the volume apparently had not yet been updated. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: mikelu To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Date: Wednesday, September 09, 1998 2:50 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Follow Though Day?? >How are you getting the volume so early? It doesn't seem to come out until around midnight. > >Mike > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Sep 1998 04:48:53 -0700 (PDT) From: TM Subject: Re: Fw: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 Dean, Thank you for the post. It clarifies what I've been studying. "And until they by buy the banks this market is still in a danger" I read some of John Murphy's Visual Investor this weekend. He talks about interest sensitive stocks, groups. For interest issues Financials, REITs, Banks should all be affected deeply; they have the most immediate gain from falling interest rates. So "until they buy the banks", the interest rumor is just that. TM - ---Dean Edwards wrote: > > I agree its not a good time to be on holiday, especially with the market > gyrating so much. This is a portion of a newsletter I receive. > > The market was very oversold and that we would likely see a strong relief > rally > given that several of our sentiment indicators were at historic > levels. > > As you may recall, the 10-day moving average of the CBOE equity > put/call ratio registered .72 Friday. This was the highest mark > since the level posted in October 1990 (.66). The CBOE Market > Volatility Index (VIX) also closed over 48.0 last week. This > extreme level had not been seen since the October 1987 market crash. > > In our experience, the only effective way to isolate and track > relative market strength is through industry sector indexes. You > should keep an eye on them and understand their respective support > and resistance points. Often times, sector indexes reveal the > market's natural rotation. > > We advised you to focus on those sectors that were among the strongest > before the recent correction. Specifically keep an eye on > Hardware, Internet and Retail for they would likely lead the next > rally based upon their relative strength. Not surprisingly, these > sectors were among the leaders on turnaround Tuesday. > > Internet 9.7% > Retail 7.4% > Hardware 6.2% > > Sectors Above/Near 200-Day Moving Average: > > Reversal Near-Term Re-Entry > Sector Signal Support Point > ************************************************************** > Drug DRG Tweezer Bottom 610 640 * > Healthcare HCX Tweezer Bottom 600 635 * > > Hardware XCI Tweezer Bottom 505 540 * > Internet INX Tweezer Bottom 145 165 * > Retail RLX Tweezer Bottom 630 665 * > > As wild as today was, not much clarity emerged. Techs and financials shot > higher on the early morning short squeeze. In the second leg, buy programs > lifted everyone. Because they didn't load up on financials in the PM so I am > dubious. And until they by buy the banks this market is still in a danger > zone. So it's hard to tell what people want to hold going into to EPS > warnings season. My guess is they will take a shot at the cyclicals, hold > the drugs and foods and play techs and financials only until bad news from > overseas and EPS comes in. > > -----Original Message----- > From: Frank V. Wolynski > To: canslim@mail.xmission.com > Date: Wednesday, September 09, 1998 6:41 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Comparison to 1987 > > > >(Snatched from my journeys into AOL.) > >Frank > >--------------------------- > >In the weeks before the '87 Crash the indexes started gyrating wildly, > >frequently making 1-3% daily moves up and down. > > > >The 51.98 Dow point drop on 9/1/87 was the fitfh biggest point drop ever at > >the time. The 242,8880,000 share day on 9/8/87 was 7th busiest day ever at > >the time. The big up day on 8/11/97 was the second busiest at the time. > > > >On September 22, 1987, the Dow rallied 75.23 points (3.02%) for its biggest > >one day point gain ever. > > > >The death spiral started in earnest on October 7, 1987 - dropping 91.55 > >points (3.47%), most of it in the last hour of trading. The Dow had closed > >the previous day at 2640 - within 82 points (3%) of its all time high. > > > >The Crash occurred 12 days later - and less than 30 days after that record > >gain. Bubbles deflate very quickly once they are pricked. These are the > >times that is imperative to go home flat every night, IMO. > > > >- > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? 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