From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #391 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, September 23 1998 Volume 02 : Number 391 In this issue: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Non "M" Noise Only [CANSLIM] Re: [CANSLIM] The Markets - Noise Only Re: [CANSLIM] The Markets - Noise Only Re: [CANSLIM] Re: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Non "M" Noise Only Re: [CANSLIM] Re: [CANSLIM] Re: [CANSLIM] The Markets - Noise Only Re: [CANSLIM]short skirts and the NFL Re: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Non "M" Noise Only [CANSLIM] IBD Article 9/21/98 Re: [CANSLIM] RUT up 1.75% at 3:55 [CANSLIM] NonCANSLIM - MSPG [CANSLIM] "M" talk Re: [CANSLIM] "M" talk Re: [CANSLIM] RE: [MV] Deep Impact Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 22 Sep 98 15:34:09 PDT From: "Walter Stock" Subject: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Non "M" Noise Only I am currently in a trading lull, and am taking full advantage of the extra time to return to my university roots in economics (a.k.a. non-M noise). Dusted off several dozen textbooks, noted with alarm how rusty my algebra and calculus is getting, and returned nevertheless to my first love, macro-economics. (My wife and little boy arrived later on.) Solemnly looked up "inflation" and "deflation" in every one of my revered books. References to inflation outnumber those to deflation by 10 to 1. Why ? These texts were all written well after World War Two, where inflation has been the norm. I decided to go back further in time and bring out my heavy artillery... = Milton Friedman's "Monetary History of the United States 1867-1960", in 860 magnificent pages (including dozens of charts). This well-worn book is one of my favorites for casual reading... had it on my nightstand prior to O'Neill and Elder. As I had remembered, deflation was very common prior to World War Two, especially in peace time. It is fairly well known that for the first yea= rs of the Great Depression in the 1930's deflation was the norm. Less well known is that from 1880 to 1900, a much longer deflation held sway, and this was an era of rapidly increasing prosperity. We call it the Industrial Revolution. So there have been times of "good" deflation and of "bad" deflation. The media, as usual, get it wrong when they hold up deflation as always being an evil. The question is, if deflation comes to North America, will it be the wrong kind this time? Well if deflation in North America results from a collapse in demand for goods and services (as seen already in Asia), then deflation will be very bad indeed. If anyone is interested in more on this topic, please let me know. Walter Stock Oakville, ONT - Canada e-mail: wstock@globalserve.net - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 22 Sep 1998 21:37:23 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] YHOO at a new all-time high intraday. Amazing. Been watching it a few days, after I covered my short. Broke through resistance like a hot knife through butter. What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and couldn't and can't bring myself to buy some YHOO. Arghhh. Sometimes I love and hate the markets at the same time. :) To add something of possible value, here is my watchlist. This watchlist is based on charts only. No fundies. AMGN LLY ANF ANN APCC ASDV ATI BLS BMCS BMET BRG CPWR DRTE EMC SWY UMG USCS GNE AEH PPDI CVD FISV GEOC GPSI GVA LSON LZB METG MNMD NTAP PAYX PRGN RX INC MEDQ Yes a lot of medical related stocks, and quite a number of software stocks. Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 22 Sep 98 14:18:19 PDT From: "Walter Stock" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Markets - Noise Only > IMO, this is a market for daytraders only. > > --Db Agreed. I think that this is a very dangerous market. Too many phony rallies and headfakes for me to buy equities on anything but daytrades. The Clinton mess tends to obscure the greater danger, which is the perilous state of the Japanese banking system and markets. One bell-weather that I am watching closely is the LTCB ( the Long Term Credit Bank in Japan), one of their big banks. It is the one most likely to slip under the waves first. Under the previous administration, Japanese authorities had been "encouraging" it to merge with Sumitomo bank under what is called the "convoy" system. Translation: the Ministry of Finance had been dragging a kicking and screaming Sumitomo towards absorbing LTCB, debts and all. There had been later fruitless plans to set up a bridge bank as well. Under the new administration, recently the plan has changed yet again: = this time towards using public money to bail LTCB out. This has run into a = political stone wall. So as of this moment on Tuesday, there is no workable plan in place to merge/rescue/bridge/mercy-kill this bank. Why should we care? Well on Friday, LTCB has a lot of debt coming due, and given the liquidity crunch in Japan, it will be interesting to = see how it copes and whether it needs outside assistance. Friday could be an exciting day. In the meantime, our retirement money is staying invested in bonds, and my trading account is 100% cash. Walter Stock Oakville, ONT - Canada - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 22 Sep 98 14:18:19 PDT From: "Walter Stock" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Markets - Noise Only > IMO, this is a market for daytraders only. > > --Db Agreed. I think that this is a very dangerous market. Too many phony rallies and headfakes for me to buy equities on anything but daytrades. The Clinton mess tends to obscure the greater danger, which is the perilous state of the Japanese banking system and markets. One bell-weather that I am watching closely is the LTCB ( the Long Term Credit Bank in Japan), one of their big banks. It is the one most likely to slip under the waves first. Under the previous administration, Japanese authorities had been "encouraging" it to merge with Sumitomo bank under what is called the "convoy" system. Translation: the Ministry of Finance had been dragging a kicking and screaming Sumitomo towards absorbing LTCB, debts and all. There had been later fruitless plans to set up a bridge bank as well. Under the new administration, recently the plan has changed yet again: = this time towards using public money to bail LTCB out. This has run into a = political stone wall. So as of this moment on Tuesday, there is no workable plan in place to merge/rescue/bridge/mercy-kill this bank. Why should we care? Well on Friday, LTCB has a lot of debt coming due, and given the liquidity crunch in Japan, it will be interesting to = see how it copes and whether it needs outside assistance. Friday could be an exciting day. In the meantime, our retirement money is staying invested in bonds, and my trading account is 100% cash. Walter Stock Oakville, ONT - Canada - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 22 Sep 1998 15:45:39 -0400 From: David Squires Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Johan, I am equally amazed. I love the action in YHOO. But the volume is not enough to pull the trigger. Let's hope it forms a nice handle here and then moves out on heavy volume. DCSquires Johan Van Houtven wrote: > YHOO at a new all-time high intraday. Amazing. Been watching it a few days, > after I covered my short. Broke through resistance like a hot knife through > butter. > > What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and couldn't and > can't bring myself to buy some YHOO. > > Arghhh. Sometimes I love and hate the markets at the same time. :) > > To add something of possible value, here is my watchlist. > > This watchlist is based on charts only. No fundies. > > AMGN > LLY > ANF > ANN > APCC > ASDV > ATI > BLS > BMCS > BMET > BRG > CPWR > DRTE > EMC > SWY > UMG > USCS > GNE > AEH > PPDI > CVD > FISV > GEOC > GPSI > GVA > LSON > LZB > METG > MNMD > NTAP > PAYX > PRGN > RX > INC > MEDQ > > Yes a lot of medical related stocks, and quite a number of software stocks. > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > > - > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 22 Sep 1998 13:13:53 -0700 (PDT) From: TM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Non "M" Noise Only Thought provoking post, Walter. "Less well known is that from 1880 to 1900, a much longer deflation held sway, and this was an era of rapidly increasing prosperity. We call it the Industrial Revolution." So what is the cause of this type of posperity? Is it that technology revolutionalizes types of goods and services available to people? People can afford things that were not possible previously because they were too expensive or not invented yet? That efficiency and innovation are cost effective? That people whose jobs are displaced by technology can learn the skills necessary to adapt and upgrade their lives? TM TM - ---Walter Stock wrote: > > I am currently in a trading lull, and am taking full advantage > of the extra time to return to my university roots in economics > (a.k.a. non-M noise). > > Dusted off several dozen textbooks, noted with alarm > how rusty my algebra and calculus is getting, and returned > nevertheless to my first love, macro-economics. > (My wife and little boy arrived later on.) > > Solemnly looked up "inflation" and "deflation" in every one of > my revered books. References to inflation outnumber those to > deflation by 10 to 1. Why ? These texts were all written well > after World War Two, where inflation has been the norm. > > I decided to go back further in time and bring out my heavy artillery... > Milton Friedman's "Monetary History of the United States 1867-1960", > in 860 magnificent pages (including dozens of charts). > This well-worn book is one of my favorites for casual reading... > had it on my nightstand prior to O'Neill and Elder. > > As I had remembered, deflation was very common prior to World War Two, > especially in peace time. It is fairly well known that for the first years > of the Great Depression in the 1930's deflation was the norm. > > Less well known is that from 1880 to 1900, a much longer deflation > held sway, and this was an era of rapidly increasing prosperity. > We call it the Industrial Revolution. > > So there have been times of "good" deflation and of "bad" deflation. > The media, as usual, get it wrong when they hold up deflation as > always being an evil. The question is, if deflation comes to North > America, will it be the wrong kind this time? > > Well if deflation in North America results from a collapse in demand > for goods and services (as seen already in Asia), then deflation > will be very bad indeed. > > If anyone is interested in more on this topic, please let me know. > > Walter Stock > Oakville, ONT - Canada > e-mail: wstock@globalserve.net > > > > > > > > > > - > > _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 22 Sep 1998 13:28:39 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On 12:37 PM 9/22/98 , Johan Van Houtven Said: >APCC >CPWR >MNMD >NTAP >PAYX What I left above has at least some to most of the CANSLIM characteristics... Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 22 Sep 1998 13:38:45 -0700 (PDT) From: Anindo Majumdar Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO doesn't fit the CANSLIM profile as far as EPS is concerned but relative strength has been outstanding. But then neither did AOL and AOL has been one of the outstanding stocks of the decade. Anindo > > YHOO at a new all-time high intraday. Amazing. Been watching it a few days, > after I covered my short. Broke through resistance like a hot knife through > butter. > > What is even more amazing is that I watched all of this and couldn't and > can't bring myself to buy some YHOO. > > Arghhh. Sometimes I love and hate the markets at the same time. :) > > To add something of possible value, here is my watchlist. > > This watchlist is based on charts only. No fundies. > > AMGN > LLY > ANF > ANN > APCC > ASDV > ATI > BLS > BMCS > BMET > BRG > CPWR > DRTE > EMC > SWY > UMG > USCS > GNE > AEH > PPDI > CVD > FISV > GEOC > GPSI > GVA > LSON > LZB > METG > MNMD > NTAP > PAYX > PRGN > RX > INC > MEDQ > > > Yes a lot of medical related stocks, and quite a number of software stocks. > > > > Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. > > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 22 Sep 1998 18:29:08 -0400 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Markets - Noise Only At 02:18 PM 9/22/98 PDT, you wrote: > >Why should we care? Well on Friday, LTCB has a lot of debt coming >due, and given the liquidity crunch in Japan, it will be interesting to see >how it copes and whether it needs outside assistance. Friday could >be an exciting day. > >In the meantime, our retirement money is staying invested in bonds, >and my trading account is 100% cash. > >Walter Stock >Oakville, ONT - Canada > I've heard the amount of the banking mess in Japan exceeds by a factor of 10 the S&L crisis of the late 80's in the US. Thanks for the post and the message regarding deflation. I find the economics fascinating. Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 22 Sep 1998 22:37:44 -0400 From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]short skirts and the NFL The Denver Bronco's of the old American conference won the last superbowl. Tom Moulton wrote: > Ari Lawson wrote: > > > According to the NFL indicator, if a team from the old American > > conference wins the superbowl we'll have a down year for the Dow > > Industrial avg.The Denver Bronco's are from the old American > > conference.FWIW. > > (Did they loose?) > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 Sep 1998 12:06:04 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Deflation Alert - Non "M" Noise Only Interesting post, Walter. My take on it is that the years of significant deflation in the US (and probably Canada too) are history, at least for the foreseeable future. Just as much history as is the industrial revolution. I think we will continue to see inflation in this segment of the world economy, however it will be monitored and tightly controlled similar to the way the Greenspan-led FOMA has been policying for the last several years (how long has this run of successful FOMA non-recessionary management been going on now? 20 years or so?). Of course, I could be wrong, and it would probably make for more exciting times if the perturbations of the economic landscape were greater, but I do not anticipate great oscillations in the US and Canada in the foreseeable future. Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 Sep 1998 09:31:40 -0400 From: Joan Sherman Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Article 9/21/98 Canslimmer's Did anyone read the Special Weekly Feature in the Monday issue of IBD about "How Chart Patterns Lead To Big Profits"? WON shows a chart of American Power Conversion and points to the tight range and dried volume during the Dec to early Jan time period. Here he states that "Most people will never spot this, but it is usually a sign of professional accumulation (buying)." Would some of you chart watchers care to expand on this explanation? Thanks, Joan Sherman - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 Sep 1998 14:04:10 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RUT up 1.75% at 3:55 On Fri, 18 Sep 1998 15:57:09 -0400, you wrote: :Are the small caps going to lead us back up? Or is this a one day = wonder? : R2000 significantly outperformed the other US indexes again yesterday. (Mon. 9/22) 2 day wonder or...?? Dan musicant@autobahn.org - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 Sep 1998 08:15:49 -0700 (PDT) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] NonCANSLIM - MSPG MSPG is such a good example, not only of how chart patterns can be helpful with or without the use of complex indicators (in this case, without), but also of how one can tailor them to suit one's own risk tolerance. To begin with, until yesterday it had been forming an ascending right triangle, flat highs and increasingly higher lows. This is a bullish pattern, though in this case it was lower than one would ordinarily want. In a more perfect world, it would have formed five points higher at old resistance (which would also be slightly above the 50d). Most likely, however, it formed where it did because that level represented a 50% retracement. Note also the reduction in volume throughout, and the gradual increase over the last three days. In any case, it finally took off from there yesterday on not particularly interesting volume. The volume seems to be kicking in today, propelling it through the 50d. What will happen to it there is anybody's guess, particularly since the Naz is so close to its 200d. An aggressive trader might have bought it yesterday or the day before, knowing full well that it might have trouble getting through the 50d. In fact, he may have been reluctant to hold it overnight. A real hot-dogger, though, would probably have taken his chances and been nicely rewarded today. A more conservative trader would wait for the stock to penetrate the 50d and hold there, remembering--as I said--that the Naz is very close to what should be strong resistance. He might even wait for it to base there, if only for a brief period of time, noting the probability that he may run into trouble at the old high. A more conservative trader/investor still would wait for a new high and perhaps another base, even though he'd be giving up an already 50% return. OTOH, he'd have clear sailing ahead of him. If MSPG is a true winner, he'll have substantial rewards to look forward to, even though he didn't buy "at the bottom". Did I buy it? No. I never buy anything unless the market is behind me. And I definitely don't hold anything overnight unless the market is behind me. If we had already retested the lows, I would have bought it like a shot. As it is, it may very well retest its base if the Naz can't get through its 200d. Nonetheless, MSPG can teach one a lesson on how to balance chart patterns, simple technical indicators, fundamentals, and risk tolerance to arrive at a comfortable and rewarding choice. - --Db _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 Sep 1998 12:46:35 -0500 From: Steve Hilton Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" talk The market is up big today on speculation AG will say something about cutting rates next week. Would he do this? I'm thinking it is unlikely he will consider cutting until November. Weren't they biased towards tightening at the last meeting? Isn't this irrational exhuberance? We got another buy signal on the Naz yesterday, (up 1% on increasing vol.). I am skeptical about this signal (as I was the last) because of the extremely weak volume on Monday. What do you Canslimmers think? A lurker, Steve - -- Steve Hilton email: shilton1@email.mot.com Motorola Inc. voice: (847) 632-4186 MS IL75/2J4 fax: (847) 632-4164 1475 W. Shure Dr., Arlington Heights, IL 60004 - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 Sep 1998 11:00:39 -0700 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" talk The speculation is that he will say something to congress at 2 PM ET today. Right now in fact. Not next week. The Fed regular meeting is 9/28. I'll predict right now that he'll either say nothing or deny a rate cut and the maket will close way off its intraday highs... On 10:46 AM 9/23/98 , Steve Hilton Said: >The market is up big today on speculation AG will say something about >cutting rates >next week. Would he do this? I'm thinking it is unlikely he will >consider cutting until >November. Weren't they biased towards tightening at the last meeting? >Isn't this irrational >exhuberance? > >We got another buy signal on the Naz yesterday, (up 1% on increasing >vol.). >I am skeptical about this signal (as I was the last) because of the >extremely weak >volume on Monday. > >What do you Canslimmers think? > >A lurker, > >Steve > >-- >Steve Hilton email: shilton1@email.mot.com >Motorola Inc. voice: (847) 632-4186 >MS IL75/2J4 fax: (847) 632-4164 >1475 W. Shure Dr., Arlington Heights, IL 600 Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites mailto:Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 Sep 1998 21:16:31 +0200 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] >This watchlist is based on charts only. No fundies. Some from the watchlist that are at new highs on high volume and mostly past their buy points. GPSI, GEOC, PRGN, CPWR, BMCS softwares... Johan Van Houtven / CLICK! N.V. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 18 Sep 1998 19:44:43 PDT From: "Danielle Conkle" Subject: RE: [MV] Deep Impact >I don't know, I'm feeling saucy, and ready to reap the world wind so I'll >come out and say it, I cried like a baby all through Deep Impact and loved >it. Any thoughts? > >JAMES K. RUDY I hated Deep Impact! But if you asked the whole row i was with (everyone sobbing...) then yeah, i'd say this was a sad movie. > > >-----Original Message----- >From: Diane Christy [SMTP:dchristy10@earthlink.net] >Sent: Friday, September 18, 1998 3:06 PM >To: movies@lists.xmission.com >Subject: [MV] Depressing movies vs. Sad movies > > >I think for me there's a difference between depressing movies and movies >that are sad. I know of quite a few depressing movies that were depressing >because they were so bad. I think sad movies are movies that evoke a >particular feeling of sorrow and if it's done well it can be very sweet to >be swept up in sorrow because we can all identify with it. Keeps us >connected as human beings. For some reason when I think of a sad movie, I >keep thinking of "Charly." It was just such ashame that the man we got ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 23 Sep 1998 17:17:23 -0400 (EDT) From: Deepak Kapur Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] YHOO Johan, Does this look like a legitimate follow-through? I still do not believe it given the technical damage done during the recent decliner. Jeffry, what do you think? Are you still holding those value line futures (even paper trading them)? Craig, your thoughts? Regards, Deepak - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #391 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. 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